Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has announced his intention to retire as of Thursday. He will hand the reins to long-established heir presumptive Anna Bligh, who will follow Carmen Lawrence and Joan Kirner to become Australia’s third female premier. This means a by-election looms in Beattie’s seat of Brisbane Central. While this is hard to get excited about (it is all but certain that the Liberals will not field a candidate), it’s interesting to note that Beattie’s margin fell from 25.0 per cent to 19.6 per cent in 2004 and then to 14.8 per cent in 2006. Of greater interest is the symbolism involved in two state premiers recently deciding to quit while at the top of their game, and the contrast presented by the present incumbent of The Lodge.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Peter out
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446 Comments
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don’t know if anyone has seen the ‘Bullring’.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/
Noticed that Bryan at Ozpolitics had a new link up. The Bulletin’s election site.
Possum, I know that under copyright laws you can quote up to 10% of a published (and referenced) work. You may be safe as you did not publish the whole thing as Crikey did, although it is arguable as to whether it is “published”. Perhaps someone more knowledgable can comment?
Keep up the great work Possum!
Tom
Ummmm. Don’t remember Keating or Fraser invading countries half way around the world. Or bringing in extreme right wing industrial relations laws. The list could go on. Maybe they don’t hate him but they’re definitely fed up with him.
Tell me Glen what shape has Howard left Australia’s capital reserves?
China has 1.3 trillion dollars. Russia has 700 billion Even Norway has 400 billion.
Australia owns stuff all!
I admire Howard as a very hard working politician, I just think his policies are wrong, short sighted, and a waste of such possibilities.
With Rudd, Howard is finally up against a politician who works as hard as he does.
I watched the KO interview with the PM and came to a different conclusion.
To his credit, Mr Howard mentioned toward the end of the interview that one of the mistakes they have made to now election wise has been to talk only about the past 11 years and not present a vision for the future.
Crosby/Textor must have told him that the electorate aren’t going to reelect him on the grounds of his hubris about the ‘growing economy’ and he has to give us more than “you have not been better off”.
Howard stated that he will be doing plenty “in the coming weeks” to focus on the future and present a plan for the next three years to the electorate. He used the ‘full employment’ notion as an example of this future plan message.
If the ‘full employment’ notion is an example of his ‘aspirational nationalism’ he has 2 problems. No one is listening to him anymore and vague, metaphysical concepts like ‘aspirational’ and ‘full employment’ are not going to shift the vote very far away from Rudd.
I think he had that ‘Ive got nothing’ look about him tonight, despite his couragous attempt to look defeat in the eye and smile at it.
Mr Howard and his team may be saving their best ammunition for the election campaign proper, but from here I can not imagine what it might be that could shake off months of consistent, unprecedented, polls yelling “Your out mate” .
If Mr. Howard does have a election campaign full of announcements about the future he may well save himself from a Ruddslide, tempered as it will be by probably equally plausible futuristic policy announcement from the ALP [note the ALP have said little about tax policy to date].
But to actually win the election ? I just can’t see that happening without a political miracle or a significant ‘own goal’ from Mr Rudd that he would probably survive anyway given his significant lead in the popularity stakes.
Glen, I admire you for swimming against the tide and voicing your opinion, it can’t be easy copping the criticism day after day!
I don’t agree with your commentary, but it’s well written and argued.
What “immigration problem”, Glen?
Pearl of gossip hot off the grapevine. Howard to resign Wednesday. Costello to get nod.
157#
My point exactly Stunkrat because he solved the illegal immigration problem…thanks to taking a tough line it my not have been popular but it was the right thing to do….
PHIL ROBINS. sorry it’s taken me so long to reply, ive been out this evening — so you knew Bob, one of natures gentlemen, he befriended and became very close to the Barnes family after Alan was killed,actually Alan’s dad told how the morning after the lad’s body was found Bob and a cub reporter went to the house at 7 am and the dad turned the hose on them, Bob trained a couple of good reporters with his ethics and they trained a rare couple after them, one trusted by murder families and the police is a crime reporter for the Sunday Mail now, i well remember Bob’s constant mug of tea and his container of sweets that harked back to his POW days.
sorry to go off topic folks.
Gecko-
More info!
Gecko, tell us more. sounds good, as it fits with Parliamentary schedule of getting the Canadian PM out of the country before doing anything drastic, but otherwise, what else is behind this rumour?
“158
Gecko Says:
September 10th, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Pearl of gossip hot off the grapevine. Howard to resign Wednesday. Costello to get nod”
The libs will sound like total hypocrites if The PM goes on Wednesday after saying point blank tonight on the 7.30 Report he will lead the party into the next election.
Glen,
You should have worked out by now that no one is listening to that clap trap. But, that has not stopped you in the past.
The fundamnentals are:
(a) biggest boom driven by Chinese investment.
(b) record corporate profits
(c) record corporate salaries.
Howard Battlers get Work Choices which:
(a) Reduce pay and work conditions
(b) Put working families under pressure.
(c) Incresased Mortgage rates.
Combine this with the Liberal Party being obsessed with serving the will of Howard to the total exclusion of the interests of our nation and you might understand the broad outline of your problem.
Ranting against Rudd and Labor is just farts in a hurricane. Rudd is already the PM in most people’s mind.
HH:
“…it’s well written and argued”… would that be the german rants, the irrational Howard can do no wrong diatribes, ..or are you related?
Glen,
Just to add to Stunkrat’s question
What “immigration problem?”
Nearly all of us are from some place else – what’s ya point?
He let 157 boats through, then stopped boat 158.
That isn’t a policy, that is political opportunism.
Albet F,
Glen would rather be somewhere else at the moment!
Now wouldnt that be ironic that this thread started with Peter Out and the next one begins with Peter In .. I wish !! Gecko dont tease me so. LOL.
Sorry Sondeo… I know this source really well… seemed that’s the word. I give it cred.
I saw a billboard on Parramatta Road yesterday (major trunk route in Sydney) – it was a big picture of Howard, and the words “Working families have never had it so good”. No ALP signage, it could easily have come from the Libs. Brilliant positioning and well pitched, to all those commuters stuck in Sydney’s famous traffic jams, and who are no doubt quoting Kath & Kim – “Bloody Howard”.
Johnny may not have called the election yet, but surely it’s just a matter of a week or two. I got the impression that he was flagging that he would call it at the end of next week, which would suggest a 27 Oct (no good for me, as it’s one of my mate’s 40th birthday and she’ll never forgive me if I don’t turn up) or 3 Nov (no plans as yet) polling day.
Or the bastard might just hold on till the end and we won’t get to vote till 15 December! (Surely the last possible date).
Can someone tell me when the expiry of the House thing kicks in (I think it’s late November)? One assumes he’d announce before then.
Gaynor #153
From the Reserve Bank,
In March 1996 Official Reserve Assets (ORA) were $17,280 million
In July 2007 ORA were $80,347 million
Some questions for my candidate pages:
* What does Mr Alex Hawke actually do for a living?
* Why has Mr Cam Nation, quondam Liberal candidate for Gorton, mysteriously disappeared from the Liberal Party’s website?
* Did Mr Craig Thomas get selected as the Liberal candidate for Griffith last week? If not, who did?
* When are the NSW Liberals going to chose candidates for seats which still don’t have them? Or, if they have chosen them, when are they going to announce them? Can anyone tell me the names of Liberal candidates for Banks, Barton, Blaxland, Charlton, Cunningham, Fowler, Grayndler, Hunter, Kingsford Smith, Lowe, Newcastle, Prospect, Reid, Shortland, Sydney, Watson or Werriwa? What is going on with these people?
* Have the WA Libs yet chosen a No 3 Senate candidate to replace Matthias Cormann?
Hugo, HoR expires on 15 November 2007. From then it is between 33 and 68 days until the election.
Gecko, thanks. We will see on Wednesday I guess. Given Canadian PMs speech, I guess Howard has to go through motions of claiming to be PM for a while, so foreign PM is not plaything of local politics. Could explain his claims to stay on and not call election etc. On the other the rumour could be just that of course…
Ah… so you support a government that has so many bungled attempts at buying much needed defence equipment, like planes and helicopters. Also you support a government that killed off the Ready Reserves, which meant our combat readiness dropped. Also they have presided over a constant problem of attracting and retaining people in to the defence force, and their only idea to increase that is offering ‘gap years’. How about they pay the professionals within the military what the industry pays, that might stop the loss.
You also support a government that in its first term gutted the amount of money spent on higher education and research. The current spending on higher education and research is still less now in real terms then it was when Howard gained off. This is also a government that tries to gag scientist from the CSIRO on climate change.
As for superannuation, the Coalition opposed universal supperannuation until it got in to power in 1996. In fact, universal super is an outcome from the ‘mean old unions’ you and the rest of the right say are so bad. So they shouldn’t say they own the idea of super by any means.
Finally, glad to see we have the ‘immigration problem’ under control. You just showed your true colours in being a Hansonite.
Daren’t give away source but ‘old lib’ connection should satisfy. Seems the view is private polling is so bad they have nothing to lose and have no choice but to roll the dice.
I’d give the info 80/20 possibility of being correct.
Well, lets assume Geko’s rumor is true.
What effect to people think it will have.
Make it worse?
Damage control?
Just a chance to sneak back in?
Gecko if you’re right it would appear that Howard has been tapped on the shoulder by Downer.
We know Minchin has told Howard “it’s time”. Downer is the last line of defence.
Yes, Howard should call the election asap, but no he can’t do so – he will look like he’s been pushed or panicked into it.
No, he’s not the problem, and that’s not why he’s talking about everyone else.
Yes, the government is in trouble, but not as much trouble as Billy MacMahon.
Yes, the polls are very bad but they’re not so bad that they’re “terminal”.
Yes, he would like to say he’s made mistakes but he can’t recall the details and didn’t bring his list.
Really, his whole case, his raison d’etre, is dissolving as we watch.
Not long from now – maybe starting at breakfast – Kevin Rudd will be talking about the promise of “stable leadership”, of “a fresh, new government with a strong sense of purpose”, of his “united team”.
It’s too good to be true.
Sorry Gecko, I don’t buy it. It won’t happen. But if it does I owe you a beer.
Glen: Howard has not left the country in great shape.
From your list, and bearing in mind the economy that Howard has inherited:
Low interest rates? They’ve gone up 5 times since the last election and is the among the highest in the Western world.
Low inflation? Have you looked recently Glen? We’re back up at 3%
No debt? No assets either, they’ve all been sold.
Low unemployment? Low job security too
Greater spending on defence and security – due to Howard’s stupid foreign policy making us more of a terrorist threat and wasting lots of taxpayers money
Gun control? Okay
Immigration problem under control – you mean locked up in detention centres?
Higher education and health endowment funds – due to not actually investing in infrastructure
Future fund – Only brought about due to lack of revenue from sale of assets
Record budget surplus – record tax intake
Superannuation and tax reform – What reform? Minor tinkering to the Keating reforms.
people dont and will never hate Howard as they did Keating or Fraser for that matter….
People do hate Howard with a passion, just read all the blogs and forums on the internet.
“Well, lets assume Geko’s rumor is true.
What effect to people think it will have.”
A shit sandwich still tastes like shit no matter how much chicken salt or tomato sauce you put on it.
In short nothing would change. The dye is cast.
Dear Adam,
1. Alex hawke is a Kamikaze pilot.
2. Mr Dam Nation is apparently a holograph and will disappear from view when the sun shines in certain ways.
3. Well, sort of. They had trouble with his brother John verifying the signature.
4. In time for the Federal election in June 2008.
5. Western Australians can’t count to three.
Paul K.
Personally I hope its wrong. But have to admit eye ball to eyeball and perfectly sober… the info gave me a jolt.
Gladly buy u a beer if turns out to be wrong. Got my fingers crossed it is.
Albert @177
My guess will be it would have to be motivated by an admission of defeat at the next election and an attempt to avoid a complete Rudd slide decimation of Coalition seats.
There is no guarantee that Costello would save his own bacon let alone anyone else, but it would take Howard out of the decision and that might keep some voters in the Coalition pocket, I say might.
Whatever they do now seems to be too little, too late to WIN, maybe enough to save the survivors from sitting in Opposition for 6-10 years IF the strategy works- and that is very big IF.
I wonder what others think of the effect of a changing of the guard this close to an election campaign ?
Noocat,
Thanks for that info regarding Possums contribution to Crikey.
I notice that it is still on Possum’s web site. With any luck that site will be located overseas and those dam lawyers will have trouble tracing Possum and his site.
Howard tonight didn’t look like a man ready to throw in the towel in 2 days, but 48 hours is a long time in politics, so we’ll see if the rumour is true.
Adam – re Kingsford Smith – the Lib candidate is Caroline Beinke – you can find the info in the latest edition of the Southern Courier (dated 4/9/07) – http://digitaledition.southerncourier.com.au/ – the article about here is on page 13 with photo.
HH
I agree. He didn’t look ready to throw in the towel – he looked ready to be wrapped up and buried in it
Installing Costello as PM now would certainly divert attention from the Rudd juggernaut for a while, provided it was done smoothly, but the awful sight of Howard’s public humiliation would surely repel a lot of people. Costello as PM would probably improve the Libs’ position here in Victoria, where he is relatively popular. But it’s not Victoria where the Libs are losing scads of seats. Surely it would play very badly in NSW – Sydney boy axed by Old Liberal Melbourne Establishment etc etc. The dominant Right faction in NSW would surely resist a Costello succession, and make a play for Abbott. I find this scenario very hard to swallow, even for a party in desperare straits.
No doubt Howard will become very popular.
Once he resigns!
Greeensborough # 164
I think you are making statements not in evidence
The fundamnentals are:
(a) China boom combined with worst drought
(b) record corporate profits
(c) record corporate salaries.
(d) since Last election inflation has risen 7.02%
(e)since last election verage weekly full time earnings have risen 11.46%
(f) average weekly earnings (all) have risen 13.08%
By all means put your case but rhetoric has little value and perhaps suggest weakness if you can’t produce evidence.
Lateline’s Tony Jones would appear to be reading straight from Possum’s analysis of Crosby-Textor!
It’s out there…
I keep reading endless repetitions of the view that Howard and his crew are not hated, that there is no anger out here in punterland. Where does this pap originate? Even Adolf i his final days in the bunker became a pathetic object. It is ever so with bullies when they meet their comeuppance.
Thanks Stewart – that confirms my view that the NSW Libs have actually chosen candidates for all these seats but are too incompetent actually to announce them. Labor, the Greens and the Nats have had all their candidates’ photos and CVs online for weeks.
The Liberal Party might as well hand it over to Labor if they switch leaders now they wont do it look what happened the last time we did that 1971 that idiot McMahon knocked off Gorton who beat Whitlam all be it by a small margin in the 1969 campaign the Libs were disunified and they lost….
I am sick to death of the media i mean they’ve turned an election about the Opposition leader into an election about Howard instead of talking about Rudd’s inexperience we are talking about Howard quiting…
And no Howard will not go if he does there will be less than a rump left of the party at the election if that happens.
Glen
Hope yr watching Lateline to get the facts on one thing people care about: the catastrophe housing has become under Howard’s regime.
Possum made it to Lateline via Crikey. Legend.
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