Westpoll’s monthly survey of 410 voters in Western Australia, conducted last weekend and published in today’s West Australian, has federal Labor with a 51.6-48.4 lead on two-party preferred. This points to a 7 per cent swing to Labor which, if uniform, would cost the Liberals Hasluck (1.8 per cent), Stirling (2.0 per cent) and Kalgoorlie (6.3 per cent). The Coalition can at least take comfort from the fact that this is better than Labor’s 54-46 lead in the previous poll, although that result always seemed hard to credit. Preferred prime minister ratings of 47 per cent for Kevin Rudd and 41 per cent for John Howard are unchanged from last month, prompting pollsters Patterson Market Research to argue that the shift to the Coalition on voting intention is meaningful and not the result of sampling issues. No primary vote figures are provided, but the Patterson site should come through here eventually.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Westpoll: 51.6-48.4 to Labor in WA
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122 Comments
So this means a 3 seat gain to Labor on approx 52/48 which is a long way below the 57/43 of ACNeilsen for the whole country [ex NT]. Thus allowing for WA makes the 57/43 a little higher for Labor in the remaining States. Not to mention the likely 1 seat gain in the NT.
Rounding to one decimal place is novel.
The most interesting thing is that Labor’s 2PP in WA is (very roughly) some 5 or 6 points below what other pollsters say is the national figure.
So if Labor’s national support is unsustainably high (haven’t we been saying that for a while?) then you’d expect their support in WA to snap back to under 50%.
But Labor only needs a 2PP figure of 46-47% in WA to pick up the two Liberal marginals. That strikes me as the most likely outcome: a return to the pre-2004 configuration in WA.
“Thus allowing for WA makes the 57/43 a little higher for Labor in the remaining States. Not to mention the likely 1 seat gain in the NT.”
You can’t compare polls from two different firms.
In any case, I’m predicting an 8-7 Coalition majority in WA.
Sad for WA. Still in line at the ballot box, whilst the rest of the country has voted and the count has begun.
Did not someone suggest suggest changing the voting hours for WA?
This poll suggests, however slight the swing, it is on, even there.
My theory, as said, people go with the flow. Who backs a loser?
Well with the Daylight Saving Trial on in WA, we will still be 2 hours behind the east, which means that we won’t suffer the problem with the 3 hour time difference in 2004.
Mind you it was pretty heartbreaking hearing the 2 Tassie seats while travelling with the ALP Candidate for Pearce to the combined Pearce/Hasluck wake when Sharryn Jackson lost
I predict the ALP will regain Hasluck because of Wankchoices and the fact that the electorate covers the low socio-economic demographic which includes single mothers roloted by welfare to work.
“Westpoll’s monthly survey of 410 voters [...]”
Barely worth considering a poll, really. The margin of error on that one must be staggering.
5%, Pete.
5% is a significant MOE in political percentages.
“5%, Pete.”
That’s about what I worked out as well. So even at the lower boundary , it would be about 46.5/53.5. Allowing a 2% reduction for Labor in the campaign (which I don’t necessarily believe will happen), this would leave an unchanged situation in WA.
Of course, it won’t work like that, I imagine both parties have a fairly comprehensive marginal seat strategy worked out.
Also, the ‘real’ result is just as likely to be 56.4/43.6, given the error range.
Perhaps someone who managed to stay awake in their stats classes (7am is an unholy time for an undergraduate to attend lectures) could confirm what I read the other day: that even with the error range, because of the underlying distribution (I assume it is a normal distribution - do the polling companies test this?), the real result is much more likely to be at the middle of the error range than at the edges.
Ratty has reared up on his hind legs and squealed defiantly he is King Rat and that’s that.
Besides, Dolly(my how that man can speak French) simply won’t have it any other way thank you very much.
Jolly decent of them to “lock-in” our election night “money shots”, I would have thought.
We are still on track for “The Moment”. (phew!)
Given the 5% sampling error, there is no statistical significance in the ‘change’ between polls. The latest figure is in the same ballpark as the Newspoll quarterly amalgamation of their polls for April to July 2007, which gave a 50-50 2pp for WA, and almost certainly had a larger total sample.
Based on 51.6-48.4, the ALP is up seven points on 2004 when the state moved 3.8 p/c towards the Liberal Party (the biggest state swing in the country).
It’s a huge move, in or outside the margin of error.
By the way, the margin of error is plus or minus four per cent (at the 95 per cent level)
All Labor needs to do in the West is hold Cowan and Swan, AND win Stirling & Hasluck off the Coalition.
6 months ago, if you’d been told 52-48 in AUSTRALIA, with 6 -8 weeks to go, you’d have been ecstatic. A swing of 7%.. golly.
BTW, publishing results to 1 decimal place for a sample this size casts a little doubt on the nous of the pollsters.
Must i remind the Rudd Huggers that this poll was of just 410 people and you are taking what 410 people have said in WA as ‘the swing is on’?? Have you lost grip on reality??? How on earth could any Westpoll even those favouring the Coalition be valid when they have a + or - 4% error rating the ALP could be 55 45 in WA or the Coalition could be 52 48 in front giving these polls any credence is pathetic.
Glen (he said in a gentle tone, as if addressing a 5yo), when all the polls trend in the same direction, month after month, you can’t go on about “margin of error”, OK? Errors occur randomly, not all in the same direction. If you want to question the polls, you have to argue systemic bias, not margin of error. But if you do that, you have to have some evidence, otherwise you’re just engaged in denial of reality. Anyway, even if the Coalition is ahead in WA 52/48, Labor still wins Stirling and Hasluck, which is all they need to do in WA.
I think it is fair to say there will be a swing to Labor this election, the only questions are
a) how much?
and
b) will it be enough?
and
c) will there be any votes left over for the third parties?
Either way though Glen, it looks as if Labor will regain Stirling and Hasluck. Kalgoorlie is probably a bridge too far, so I agree with Karma Policeman, 8-7 Coalition.
” John Howard says he will remain Liberals’ leader and denies panic has gripped the party. ” [quote from The Age]
Uh Johnnie …. the days for proclaiming your view of reality and having the electorate say “oh because he says it is so must mean it is so” are OVER …. we are NO longer listening to you …. You can’t keep on going back to that well because it is empty
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Even if the Westpoll is right, I doubt Labor can win Kalgoorlie. But Canning is much more winnable than its margin suggests. On a statewide swing that big I would expect Canning to go. Anyone with local knowledge?
Why is Canning more winnable than it’s margin suggests?
At least hid claim that this poll was a rogue, like every poll so far this year except the June Westpoll and Galaxy has apparently been.
Possum,
Because Canning recorded a 9.1% swing to the Liberals in 2004, on the back of the Latham effect and a terrible campaign by the ALP (I think they went through 3 candidates in total).
Before 2004, it was one of the most marginal seats in WA - 0.4% margin for the Liberals. As such, the 9.5% margin seems to be softer than it would ordinarily suggest.
And Don Randall is one of the more odious Coalition backbenchers: it’d be great to see the back of him!
Only a few months ago, people were arguing quite rightly, that Labor losses in WA, ie.Cowan and Swan, would make a win very difficult. The spectre of the ALP winning the 16 seats required in the east and falling short due to these losses had more than a few Labor voters in a cold sweat.
However to my mind it looks more and more likely that there will be no coalition gains in WA or anywhere else. And if Labor gains in every state and territory, except the ACT, I can{t see the Coalition holding on.
Ta Swing Lowe,
I was wondering if there was some particularly WA type thing in play.
Possum Possum Possum ‘particularly WA type thing’!!!!!!!!!
Just really bad campaign(s) last time, an interesting seat with some upper middle end land developments (possibly particularly sensitive to interest rates), and Don Randal. Perhaps he is a good local member. I hope he makes an excellent former member.
PM - Thursday, 16 September , 2004 18:50:39
Reporter: David Weber
MARK COLVIN: The seat of Canning in Western Australia is the scene of one of the tightest battles in the election, but the sitting Liberal MP has been making the headlines for all the wrong reasons.
Yesterday, Don Randall said Mark Latham wasn’t popular with voters because he’s not Christian – a comment the Prime Minister, who was there, backed away from.
Today, Mr Randall’s been under attack for saying, not for the first time, that Mr Latham has a “road rage personality”.
But Labor’s had its share of problems too, including the 11th hour resignation of the candidate, amid claims that the party hadn’t put enough resources into the campaign.
David Weber reports.
DAVID WEBER: Canning is the Liberals’ third-most marginal seat nationally, but Labor’s campaign to take it back has been affected by tragedy and farce.
Labor’s original candidate, the former MP, Jane Gerick, died unexpectedly on Christmas Day.
Then, Cimlie Bowden was pre-selected, but she resigned in the middle of August. She claimed there was a lack of support from head office. She also said there was a personal campaign against her from within the Labor Party.
This left virtually no time to find another candidate.
Labor called on Kay Hallahan.
Since the ALP ‘lead’ in WA is so small even if there is one then it would suggest that the Coalition can make up more ground and stand a good shot a defending Stirling at least and possibly picking up Cowan or Swan if there is s swing to the Coalition in those seats…Adam your hubris amazes me truly you have little regard for the voting public it would not surprise me if you like Rudd were going round town saying Rudd has already won…be careful what you wish for Adam look what happened the last time we elected an inexperienced Labor Party to Government in 1972 and their leader had 3 years of leadership experience compared for around 1 year for Rudd what a complete and utter mess that turned out to be and to top it off we had a constitutional crisis. If that is any measure of the Labor Party i would hope that the Australian people can stick with a party with a proven track record rather than a party full of semantics and empty platitudes….
Labor’s best candidate for Canning died suddenly on the eve of the 2004 election. They could barely raise a campaign - especially considering Latham was an unpopoular figure in WA. In underlying terms, Canning is at least as winnable as Hasluck and Stirling. It was held comfortably for Labor by George Gear during the Hawke-Keating era, I recall. In some ways, it looks better for Labor than Kalgoorlie.
There are two other seats that are possibles for Labor - Moore and Forrest. They look hard on paper, but Forrest has been undergoing a lot of demographic change. Moore is harder, but possible if the swing to Labor picks up, then it is a winnable prospect.
The Liberals are hoping they can hold everything in WA, but they will probably lose at least 3 and could lose 6.
It was interesting to re-read that.
The very sad loss of the candidate aside, Mr Randal seems to have hit the Latham road rage personality on the head, when the media (and many of us) hadn’t picked it up at that point. The story even says he was in the news for the ‘wrong’ reasons - history says he has at least one of the reasons directly right and got great publicity for it.
Glen honey you have been saying that since before the Internal Liberal party stuff was leaked last week, and it put a complete end to any ambiguity that you might have been able to spin from rare and small polling here in WA.
I understand in Forrest there was a very strong independent (TV presenter locally I think) that was causing headaches for the Lib candidate who libs I speak to describe as ‘weak’.
Apparently the TV personality ‘is resting’ from exhaustion even before the campaign starts; perhaps they been promised some sweets with their tea and lie down.
cowan is open and tough
hasluck could change
stirling could change
swan??
canning will become marginal again
all in all sfa will happen in wa
I read the following posted to the comments blog on Annabelle Crabb’s article in the SMH. Might be worth it to hope that there will still be a spill this week.
“Forget about the talk of Costello taking over; it won’t happen.
However:
My West Aussie mole tells me that Wilson Tuckey’s head is set to explode at tomorrow’s Liberal party room meeting, and that Old Man Ironbar is going to put forward the name of a fellow Sandgroper and key factional colleague.
The Curtin will be drawn for Howard tomorrow.”
A parody on the current mess the Libs are in, it is wonderful and doesn’t forget to make apologies to Banjo Patterson up front.
“The Squire with a blunderbuss beside him till the end”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/the-squire-with-a-blunderbuss-beside-him-till-the-end/2007/09/09/1189276543432.html
While we’re on WA, I notice that the Nationals are running an extremely well-qualified candidate against Tuckey in O’Connor - Phil Gardiner, a wheat farmer from Moora, old local family, has an MBA, was a merchant banker, long record in the area etc etc. Labor is “running dead” with a 20yo student as candidate. Tuckey is 71 and increasingly eccentric and cranky. Anyone with local knowledge think he might lose? The Nats haven’t won a Reps seat in WA since 1972 but this looks their best chance in a while.
Interesting to note that Neil Brown in today{s Australian, claiming to be an objective outsider, has already called it for the Coalition.
Apparently, IR and Iraq are potential vote winners??
The Coalition will win a good majority, with different seats from the present one. No mention of which Labor seats they will gain though.
Hmmm
More insightful analysis from Comical Ali.
Yes Glen, if the Liberals can turn a 7% swing against them into a 2% swing for them then they will pick up the ALP marginals in WA.
And if the Liberals can produce a 9% swing from current polling results in the rest of the country then they will probably win the election.
But how will they do this? How likely is it?
(And please do not say “by pointing out how inexperienced the ALP front bench is…”)
Boll @ 36,
Neil Brown is doing some drugs if he seriously believes what he writes -
“But its best course is clear: stick with Howard and promote the proud record of achievement that cannot, on present evidence of what is on offer, be rivalled by Rudd and the Labor Party.”
I wouldn’t call David Hicks, Work Choices, lying through his teeth about interest rates (could go on but will stop there) evidence of achievement. I also think people are smart enough to realize that by default the government in power will have more experience than that out of power.
Neil needs to book himself into the same clinic Ben Cousins used.
Annabel Crabb should stick to her day job.
On the other hand, Glen must have decided that the scare campaign on the Hawke/Keating years isn’t biting so he has to fall back to what happened 35 years ago.
Perhaps you should remind us again what happened in the Scullion[sic] years, I’m sure the ALP hasn’t changed at all.
Re comment 11 - Coota Bulldog, if you go here there is a neat little calculator that will give you the sampling error for any given poll for which you know the details.
In this Westpoll case, plug in sample size of 410, a figure of 1237349 for the ‘population’ being sampled (this is WA close of rolls figure in 2004 - couldn’t quickly find a more recent one but a change of a few hundred thousand voters doesn’t affect the result) and percentage result of 51.6% (there is higher error in close polls when the population is fairly evenly divided than, say, a result of 70% to 30%). The answer is a confidence interval or error margin of 4.84% at 95% confidence. In other words, we can be 95% sure that if the entire 1.23 million voters had been asked the question, the result would be within 4.84% of the reported 51.6%.
With this population size you need a smple of about 600 to get an error margin of 4%, 1063 to get down to 3%, and 2385 to get to a 2% error margin. It’s a game of diminishing returns for increased sample size given the logarithmic relationship, and you can see why the main national polls work with a sample of 1100 or 1200.
Very insightful analysis Julie @ 38.
More evidence of the decline of this forum.
What about some analysis rather than boring, unintelligent rants.
Gets mighty boring, day after day.
Well, I live in Swan and vividly remember Don Randall…and the nailbiting count of 2004. I spent much of polling day feeding and watering the ALP booth workers here, and I still claim it was “the sandwiches wot won it”!
I think Cowan and Swan are both set to remain in Labor hands, and Hasluck should swing comfortably back to Sharryn Jackson. Stirling is slightly different - it’s not quite as much a “interest rate squeeze” seat like Hasluck, and it may just come down to Peter Tinley being a solid candidate against mouse that squeaked Keenan.
Canning is a rather different seat now to the days when it was held by George Gear - the creation of Hasluck pushed most of it right out into the Shire of Murray, removing the Labor-skewing Gosnells area. Although Armadale is still in Canning, so are significant rural areas and the McMansion land of suburban Canning Vale. So even though Don Randall’s margin was grossly inflated in 2004, I can’t actually see the seat turning red unless a huge swing is on in WA.
“It’s a game of diminishing returns for increased sample size”
Indeed it is, and in fact the size of the target population doesn’t much effect the MOE, either. So a sample of 400 in a population of 100 million has much the same MOE in a population of 1 million. Which makes polling hard for a newspaper with a small revenue base - they have to spend proportionally more to get poll results with a credible MOE.
Hard to take these Wespolls seriously, except, as Adam points out, in terms of the longer term trends.
I’ve been thinking a bit about potential gains for Labor in SA over the past few days. As a few other SA posters have noted, the water issue is currently the main concern of people down south. The tiser, in it’s usual wisdom, has become obsessed with it - water restrictions/the Murray is the headline story at least twice a week. Just today there is another unpleasant picture of river bed on the font page - it is already dry, and we’ve only just finished winter (and our apparent ‘wet’ season.) these sort of headlines will probably occur even more frequently now the Crows have been knocked out (
)
People are pissed off, and rightly so, but mainly at the state Labor government who has showed absolutely no vision on the issue. It also helps that the state opposition is finally gaining some credibility. I would suggest that a proper water policy announcement by either federal party could swing quite a lot of votes - although Howard will obviously have the harder sell. This is one of the reasons I wanted Costello to take over, because I think people would listen to him, but sadly this doesn’t appear likely.
For Rudd, there could be a fine line to walk between offering a ‘vision’, and giving people a reason to vent their anger and punish you for something your state-based party has done. From what I’ve sensed, very few people are actually blaming Howard for the water crisis, I think it’s pretty clear the federal government has tried pretty hard to gain control of the Murray to do something about it. The media decided (and reported regularly) that Victoria was the source of that problem. So while the issue currently remains a state one, it could turn federal if the right things were said at the right time. It will be interesting to see if Rudd indirectly (or directly) criticises state labor’s management of this debacle. You can be certain Howard will, and for once his state-bashing might actually work.
So we have council mergers as a wedge in Queensland, and water management problems in SA. And there’s that $17 billion surplus.Where exactly does Rudd need to win his seats again? Yes I think Rudd will win in SA, and nationally. But believe me, a lot of people are pissed over the water issue, and the number is growing by the day. Beware the angry mob.
With this poll, Stirling and Hasluck are low hanging fruit for Labor. Kalgoorlie is beyond reach thanks to the hostility to Labor’s IR policy by those in the mining sector and Howard’s disenfranchisement of huge swathes of Indigenous voters who will in remote areas in the electorate. Canning, on the other hand, and despite its seemingly impregnable margin, is well within reach. The Liberal margin in Canning is inflated thanks to shenanigans that preceeded the 2004 poll. It’s also worthy to note that Canning was Labor held before the 2001 election.
‘Thanks to the hostility to Labor’s IR policy’.
Pseph, I don’t mean to be pedantic, and I know there are some who will thank / vote on that basis just because it is said a lot, but other than mining companies is there a lot of evidence for this?
Hasse today in the West saying WA doesn’t deserve a share of gas royalties the Commonwealth pumps directly to Canberra. Rudd has already promised to quarantine a percentage and pump them into infrastructure.
I can’t help but think this can play well for labors ‘interesting’ choice in candidate.
When we chose our candidate I thought it was a sign we’d given up and had no chance. But with a good base swing, and a member being all anti-WA on us home team spirit may get the labor candidate over the line.
Stirling is swinging heavily towards the ALP. When the Libs finally pull the Habit out of the Rat, the Labor candidate Peter Tinley will have a safe-ish seat for a couple more elections to come. Michael Keenan has started buying lots of front-page colour adverts in the local rags, but he has been virtually invisible for these last three years -except when he made evening news bulletins for some dumb comments about childcare workers and nappy-changing, which got an instant response from the LHMU. The Missos are now pouring resources into wiping his @&$%!
Max, correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t the National Party have responsibility for all things aquatic and ripuarine in the SA government?
Dennis Shanahan on ABC WA Morning Program today said, no way that Costello would challenge and the Libs still had hope because their focus groups were not telling them what the polls were.
In any case, “send a message to the state government” ranks up there with “look at the inexperienced front bench” in terms of successful federal election tactics.
Ooh, I like that. Is it yours?
Glen,
‘look what happened the last time we elected an inexperienced Labor Party to Government in 1972 and their leader had 3 years of leadership experience compared for around 1 year for Rudd’
You know you’re in trouble when you have to reach back 35 years into the past. I myself was not even born then so for me something that happened in 1972 is irrelevant.
Anyway I love the way you operate Glen. Throw comments out there that cannot be proven or disproven in anyway because no evidence exists for them.
As I’ve said before Keenan is starting (a bit late perhaps?) to get active in the electorate again.
Tinley spotted at local shopping centre over the weekend, I expect Keenan had to get across to Canberra, which halts the campaign effort for a week or so.
The good thing about Glen is every time he throws something up. I get to read a lot of logical well thought out responses. So keep em coming Glen.
Parliament Live is back on Sky News and the ABC at 2pm
Yes, Martin B, I claim authorship. Have waited for YEARS to use it.
Greg,
While I would agree that a lot of the posts are “unintelligent rants” I think that election times are times where passions run riot and well thought out arguments sometimes evaporate. It is the nature of politics that it stirs passions. We’ll be seeing a lot of rants from both sides between now and election day. Where I differ from you is that I don’t see this forum necessarily declining as a result. It’s simply become more popular and also I might add I think more entertaining. Some of the rants are quite funny. I still think there are enough diamonds amongst the rough stones to make this site worth visiting. I for one hope it remains popular even if the price we pay is having to put up with “unintelligent rants”.
full of semantics and empty platitudes….
Glen 30
Oh the irony.
ripuarine
Adam 51
riparian.
Habit out of the Rat
Old joke.
What is the difference between a stage magician and a research psychologist?
One pulls rabbits out of hats, and the other pulls habits out of rats.
Hmm. I stand corrected. I’m fairly sure ripuarine was used during the federal convention debates, but it isn’t in the OED.
Just Me, can I claim “Kevalanche” then?
Ripuarine (a pronoun) is a real though obscure word. It refers to a group of Franks who settled on the Rhine river in the fourth century, and also to the related Germanic language group. It is closely related to the word ‘riparian’, with the same etymological root, and means something like ‘river-dwellers’. You were actually quite close.
Just my dose of pedantry for the day. Sorry.
Normal service will now be resumed.
Just Me, can I claim “Kevalanche†then?
I have certainly never heard that one before. Has a catchy edge to it.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/damned-if-he-does-damned-if-he-doesnt/2007/09/09/1189276542059.html?page=2
I just can’t imagine that all the polls are wrong. According to Phil Coorey, the government’s internal polling still shows them ahead in a majority of seats:
“The Government believes is has a good message to sell. There are some who still think it can beat Labor. The internal polling shows it ahead of Labor in a majority of seats.”
Again, for them to be ahead in most seats, their polling must be flawed because it disagrees with all the published opinion polls for this entire year so far.
The OED gives “Ripuarian” refering to the river-bank dwelling Franks. It doesn’t give “ripuarine” at all. Google turns up one example: “The creek is almost entirely at the surface level and unaltered although its ripuarine habitat is largely destroyed in the more developed areas…”
Fair point Jasmine, I’m just regurgitating what I hear. Benig on the east coast and not in the mining industry, I have no idea what plays out in the nickel belt. Does anyone have an informed view of what moves voters out that way?
At a wild guess, money.
Oops, outpedanted.
I knew I have should have double-checked and not relied on 25 year old memories from first year uni linguistic lectures.
Note to self: Stick to your own technical specialty.
At the risk of further error, I would suggest the Google result is a misspelling.
From Crikey, an further analysis of the Crosby Textor report leaked a week or so ago.
“Clearly there is a firewall strategy in place, but equally clearly, it is just too many points and seats deep for the finances available to run it effectively. The only question left to answer is which seats the Liberal leadership has actually decided to sacrifice and which ones will be properly funded in the firewall. Howard has conceded the election, but hasn’t told his marginal seat holders. Talk about an election being a circuit breaker is simply for internal Coalition consumption. The Liberal leadership knows they’ve lost. They’ve conceded the election, which is why they are running a firewall strategy. They have lost but cannot tell their own marginal seat holders because a riot will break out and turn a defeat into destruction. ”
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070910-Never-mind-the-Nielsen-heres-the-death-sentence-2.html
The internal polling shows it ahead of Labor in a majority of seats.â€
This would be polling at odds with the coalition’s own leaked polling (Crosby-Textor) which said they were behind on just about every issue and that Labor “owned” most of the issues important to voters.
This would be polling at odds with every published and every leaked poll in the last 10 months.
This would be polling at odds with reality.
Hey, Ozymandias. . .
You sure that skull/cap helmet of yours hasn’t fused itself with your skull? Perhaps your blog entries are being controlled by aliens!
For the uninitiated - please refer to “The Tripods” on Amazon.com
Must be true if it’s from Crikey!
Howard plays to win and would still believe he can.
Talk of them just going through the motions is silly.
That be possum’s work (as crikey acknowledges), hope Crikey is sending you a big juicy pile of money Possum, poor ol’ Christian couldn’t do that unless every second paragraph ended with ‘Howard will win because ….’
To be fair, he now thinks the most likely scenario is Rudd winning comfortably.
Wow, Peter Beattie to resign according to News Ltd
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22392728-5006301,00.html
I stopped subscribing sometime ago; the new management felt too polished for my liking. Thanks for the update; but it wasn’t that long ago he wrote the ‘economy stupid’ peice as the way / reason Howard should win. It is my view they are looking at the wrong bits of the economy.
The best numbers in the universe are meaningless if you’ve got a 20K debt riding on your credit card in your pocket. And the forces of darkness can say it is my fault 7 billion times and it is not going to make me even a touch happier.
And for those tending towards and autobiographical interpretation my credit card was cleaned last week, anyone want to tackle my mortgage as a gift?
Blair, Beattie, Bracks, Carr and in sadder circumstances Gallop and Bacon show the Liberal Party that you can re-generate in office.
I am afraid it might be too late John Howard. Trying to present a plan for the future, when you’re 68 and have been around for 11 years is a very difficult task. Whether or not its impossible or not we’ll see soon?
Exactly, and according to Crikey he didn’t get off to a good start promoting the “vision thing” on AM this morning:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Politics/20070910-A-belated-search-for-the-vision-thing.html
Howard: Well I suppose the best way you do that is you demonstrate that your plans for the future are better than the other person’s. That’s how you do it.
Uhlmann: But what are they prime minister?
Howard: I beg your pardon?
Uhlmann: What are those plans for the future?
Howard: Ah well, they are to use, I don’t have time on a short interview like this to detail all of them, but they are essentially to use the prosperity that we now have to deal with the difficulties some people still have and also to build a stronger and more prosperous future and I think we have to shift the balance of the debate and the projection to those things rather than spend all our time saying how well we have done over the last 10 or 11 years.
Re (80)
“Blair, Beattie, Bracks, Carr and in sadder circumstances Gallop and Bacon show the Liberal Party that you can re-generate in office.”
Costello must be spitting chips to see that Howard hasn’t followed the examples set by the premiers to (excepting those sad circumstances) of knowing how to go out on top.
WOW. Maxine McKew is now on $2.00, down from $2.35 on Portlandbet. Howard is out to $1.70.
I guess Portlandbet are covering themselves a bit in case he resigns before the election.
Costello’s line is that the Howard / Peacock contests during the 1980s was bad for the party. This is the excuse he uses to explain why he has never challenged. The real reason is that he is gutless and thinks the job should be handed to him.
He is more like Beazley than Keating.
I didn’t expect Beattie to go until after the federal election, but it may be savvy timing and departue for Labor.
His replacement has a good profile and will get more than the usual honeymoon: a little of this may rub off on Labor generally in Queensland, especially as she has been kept away from the ordure of council amalgamations. (Conversely she’s led the Mary River dam project which will be swaying a few votes to the Coalition in the Wide Bay and far north of the Sunshine Coast area - but those seats are hardly within Labor’s reach).
Am still laughing at Glenn Milne’s frothing-at-the-mouth column. He clearly wants Howard out for Costello, without a second’s delay. (Does this imply this is what Costello wants??) One of the dafter arguments is that Howard is as unpopular as Beazley (and by implication that Costello would bring Rudd’s freshness…)
The symbolism is powerful, isn’t it? Bow out gracefully at the top of the game, or hang on like shit to a blanket.
Bit hard on Costello, yes Keating had a two shot plan, challenge, lose and wait and grumble until the PM is thrown out.
Whether or not Costello (plus the boy bits that some seem think critical to hard decision making and courageous stands taken daily by women without the boy bits at all) would have had this impact is debatable.
The self-delusion amoungst the Howard believers is still amazing, even as Andrew bolts and Janet dumps on Howard. Costello would have had to rely on being able to defeat this self-delusion before the party dumped Howard and chose him. He is right it might have done the liberals more harm than good.
The reality is while the Labor caucus is responsible for Latham and now gets some of the credit for chosing Rudd, the whole party room should be taking a good hard look at themselves. 11 years of blind unquestioning belief (something we are ever likely to see on ourside of the fence) really blinded them to the need for change.
Howard for not having the courage to go, rather than Costello for not having the courage to knife him, should suffer more in the telling of history if there is a bloodbath on election day.
Talk about WA Libs being in denial over the polls.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=39934
And note that local issues are being mentioned.
Beattie has been very successful electorally, but I can’t say I will miss him much. His shameless populism is a bit much even for me to stomach.
Adam, the same was with Goss. The whole Goss Gloss was what people turned away from. At least Beattie bowed out before getting the tap on the shoulder or worse, losing an election.
How does someone become a Labor premier in QLD without being populist?
You’re saying he didn’t do a Howard
Today’s trivia: the Greens candidate for Flinders, Bob Brown (known as “the other Bob Brown”) wrote the song Give Me a Home Among the Gumtrees.
The Crikey-posted commentary on Crosby/Textor is startling.
It does make me wonder why the Crosby/Textor stuff was leaked. Is it a ploy? The really good thing is Rudd still has some ground to poach from Howard & The Liberals .
Oh he will, no doubt about it.
Then again, Costello will not feature very prominently in the telling of history.
I’ve just opened a Peter Beattie thread, so it might be an idea to direct related discussion that-a-way.
Blindoptimist
You could have read this last week on Possum Pollytics (http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/) last week.
This is the link to Possum’s full Crosby Textor article from a few days ago if you’d like to see the original. Not sure if Crikey has the whole thing or not.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/07/capitulation/
According to Crikey Poss is: “the unflappable and astoundingly incisive Possum Comitatus”
How true. But I think that means they’re not paying him.
Sorry, WhoGives. Great minds etc…
Re: Beatie leaving.
Will he now be able to go out full time and work the marginal seats for Federal Labor? And if he does would it make any difference? It also allows him as a private citizen to make himself available to the media in the Federal campaign though whether the media continues to pay him any attention is another matter.
“According to Crikey Poss is: “the unflappable and astoundingly incisive Possum Comitatusâ€
How true. But I think that means they’re not paying him.”
They should pay him, else he will invade their roofs!
thanks possum - i will delve into it
…er..i mean thanks whogives..(i have trouble seeing things at times)
Crispy
NP,
Your post was more informative than mine as well it looks like I have been getting in a few quick ones of the brown stuff.
Simon@ #99
I hope you are wrong. Possum deserves a bit of lettuce as a reward for such good work.
It’s good to see this kind of analysis: makes the electoral process seem much less arbitrary.
Salad days for possum, huh?
Lots of movement to Labor over the past week on Portlandbet, but no seats switching to Labor.
http://betelection.com/elections/?p=30
PDF summary here:
http://betelection.com/070910election_movers.pdf
This could be a good week to bet, because surely those patches of yellow (shortening odds) are going to turn to red (seats where favourite has changed) over the next week or two.
I was reading some earlier threads and came here to comment on Gippsland and the McGaurans and then I saw Adam asking about O’Connor falling, so I thought I’d add my 2c:
I’ve been told by friends from that area that Gardiner has had TV ads running for a few months already now, and he has the capacity to spend quite a bit on his campaign - when the WA Nats ran dead in 2004 I think they still got 10% or something. Wilson is old, erratic and apparently wants to be the oldest man to ever sit in the chamber; but despite what he says I’ve also heard that his stance on the wheat market isn’t really supported that enthusiastically about a lot of local growers (presumably they like AWB, I’m no expert there)
As for McGauran, the key to Gippsland is the Latrobe Valley. The ALP candidate is totally unknown there, being from Bairnsdale, and apparently the ALP aren’t taking the candidate or the seat real serious; the eastern half of the electorate is sold Nat, and his role as Ag Minister no doubt goes down well, though his absence dealing with horse flu and further drought conditions mean he may not be campaigning that much there.
But the voting trends in the Latrobe Valley are interesting, Traralgon in particular has become much more affluent over the last decade, and Labor haven’t won a booth in Traralgon since the 1999 state election. Even in 2006 the Morwell vote was down.
So it’s a very interesting seat.
4:50 est, CBet; Lab. 1.40 Coal. 2.95
Glen, this one’s just another one of those rogue fluctuations.
I don’t know whether anyone has commented on this, but I noticed in the breakdowns of the latest Newspoll that Labor is actually polling better on primary votes in regional areas (51%) than in metros.
However, I note that the Greens vote is stronger in metros (no surprise there), so, after preferences, the Labor swing is probably consistent across the country.
Labor’s new-found regional strenght is really quite astounding, given the coalition’s dominance of regional Australian seats. It adds weight to suggestions that the swing is strongest in coalition seats, and makes we wonder what we’re going to see on election night.
Why is the regional swing so strong? I would guess there are a few factors…
1. The higher rate of low wage earners and casuals in regional areas makes WorkChoices more potent.
2. There is general discontent about the drought and water shortages. This is not really the Commonwealth’s fault, but someone has to cop the flak from the voters. I think farmers will still vote for the coalition - they’re getting $26million a WEEK in exceptional circumstances drought relief payments! That’s the equivalant of a Mersey Hospital takeover every six weeks.
3. High petrol prices - and the world price is getting back to record levels as we speak.
4. While mortgages and rents in regional areas are generally lower in the cities, some regional areas now have exceptionally high housing costs - that’s if you can find a house at all. This could be a big factor in some of the Queensland coastal and mining seats, like Flynn, Hinkler and Dawson, Page and Cowper in NSW, and Kalgoorlie. I’ve felt for a long while that Labor is a show in Kalgoorlie, because if you’re NOT a miner, all your money goes in housing and petrol.
5. While much is made of the big money made by miners on AWAs, a lot of them actually live in cities and fly in and out for work. There are probably as many miner votes in Perth seats as in Kalgoorlie.
5. The skills shortage is biting severly. In many regional areas, you name it, you can’t get it - dentists, doctors, plumbers, mechanics, teachers etc.
What do others think? What does a 51 per cent Labor primary vote in regional areas mean in terms of seats lost and won?
And as Jasmine mentioned some time earlier, Labor’s promise to give some of the resources royalties back to WA will go down a treat in seats like Kalgoorlie, firstly because they’re parochial, secondly because they desperately need better infrastructure, and thirdly, because it’s a very sensible way of spending royalties, instead of regurgutating them as tax cuts.
Adam, the Nats will never knockoff Tuckey.
Every ALP candidate has only ever been a name on the ballot paper while in a couple of elections the Nats have run good candidates with well resourced campaigns.
But they have never outpolled the ALP on primarys and if you compare the state and federal voting figures, it appears that a fair chunck of National voters vote for the Libs at the federal level.
Adam #89. So you think doing what is unpopular might work. This could be why Howard could win this election.
Did anyone see Barry O’Farrell on the ABC news tonight? He was droning on about some issue (I missed the start of it) and said something to the order of:
“Federal Labor is putting off a decision on this until after Kevin Rudd’s election.” To which they then showed a picture of O’Farrell leaving the press conference, head down, looking sheepish, while the reporter pointed out the clanger by saying “What he means is the election Kevin Rudd will be contesting.”
Classic gaffe. I hope it gets wide airplay.
Were WA to have a 7% swing, I’d think it highly unlikely to be anything like uniform. The loss of incumbency would probably mean Cowan wouldn’t swing as much, while O’Connor’s only likely to swing from the Libs to the Nats if it does anything. To balance those, I reckon the swing would be larger in Canning and Forrest; the former because it just swung too much at the last election, and the latter as I feel it’s becoming less and less rural and more and more provincial with growth in the regional centers in the South West.
I don’t really think Labor would stand a chance of picking up any of the other metro seats; I know people have mentioned Moore a couple of times, but I just can’t see it (though I can’t really see Forrest either except if the Libs suffer a Kevtastrophe). Forrest on the other hand might be primed to be taken by an Independent, and there’s a number of seats I could see being troublesome for the Libs with a theoretical good Independent candidate - particularly blue-ribbon Curtin
Is WA not the strongest of the States for Howard? I wonder how the AWA scare campaign has been playing out there and whether the Rudd ’soft IR’ response will contain the angst in the West?
At this stage, ‘least catastrophic’ looks more accurate than ’strongest’.
I have many relatives and friends in Perth. Must have a word with the lot of them!
On Antonio’s comments re the rural areas (108). I think we are going to see a very different pattern emerge on election than some are expecting. Especially the way some commentators still keep seeing it as a contest over Howard’s mythical ‘battlers’ in the outer-suburban areas, which is too much seeing it in terms of the past. I suspect this will be less a case of Labor regaining its heartland than the coalition losing theirs. In the rural areas the rise and fall of One Nation has softened the coalition’s hold on rural seats which others are starting to pick up, especially with younger voters, and we are already seeing in some state results. I would see it more as a result of the old conservative agenda having less relevance and people more just focussing on service provision, which Vic and Qu Labor has played well. This election is truly going to change the ground rules.
Hi
Primary voting figures are out now for the Westpoll.
See
http://www.marketresearch.com.au/our_services__westpoll__history_of_voting_intent_federal.90.html
and click on the graph.
It’s
ALP: 44%
Coal: 44%
others: 12%
And to put that in context…
In 2004 election in WA it was:
ALP: 34.75%
Coal: 48.76%
others: 16.49%
So the swings since 2004 are:
9% to ALP
5% away from Coal
4% away from others
Re 22 by Possum Comitatus: “Why is Canning more winnable than it’s margin suggests?”
Having once upon a time been a local to the area, large chunks are urban, semi and light industrial. This is the heartland of the semi- and un-skilled labour that would be most fearful of WorkChoices.
RE: SA’s water being run by the Nats?
Not really. Karlene Maywald, a National, is the Minister for the River Murray in the Rann Labor Government.
But any big plans on her part are still going to have to go through a budget process dominated by ALP agendas.
RE SA water
But if you look at the composition of R. Murray Advisory boards, in SA and elsewhere including at Federal level, and the ilk, and the composition of R.Murray Local Government Councils you will note that Nationalist/Liberal aligned irrigators are the dominant force.
This is a local speaking [well typing I suppose].
Water policy along the Murray is dominated by and directed at serving the needers of irrigators with token platitudes for the environment and other users.
Its the single reason why nothing has been done and will not be done even under a Federal system.
Until we recognise that more water has to be put into the River [note the ramifications for farm dams, bores and land usage along the catchment] and less taken out [and irrigation exceeds all other uses by several times] then the problems will continue until even the irrigators will suffer.
Desalination, recycled water, stormwater collection, domestic tanks, urban restrictions are all cute measures but in themselves do not solve the essential problem, sort of they will save the equivalent of ‘a piss in the ocean’.
We use too much water for irrigation.
That has to change.