I have just awoken to a barrage of “Turnbull and Downer deny calling for PM to quit” headlines, capped by Andrew Bolt’s sensational assertion that Peter Costello will be Prime Minister tomorrow. No time to absorb any of this, but a new thread is clearly in order.
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647 Comments
sensationalism, nothing more.
This is insanity, John Howard is the Coalition’s best hope for victory. Peter Costello would be a liability for the Coalition as PM, while Turnbull has potential to become a good PM one day, just not now.
Might I make an prediction, the election will be late around December 8th and the Coalition will win a narrow but workable majority, although very likely winning only 48-49% of the two party vote. The Labor party would after such a result descend into factional chaos.
I want to get some slogans into the mix so I will post them near the top. Maybe someone will offer me a job.
“Three years ago Labor felt that Rudd would make a worse prime minister than Latham, we agree….don’t risk it vote liberal”
As Hewson said, the only he’ll go out is in a box
Bugger. I really want Howard to stay on so I can see him lose the election.
I’ll make an opposing big call and say that Howard will not leave office until he is voted out at the election. Howard is not going to resign, and none of the conspirators in the Liberal Party have the courage to confront him with a party-room vote, partly because they don’t have a candidate who is either willing to challenge or could do any better against Rudd. Costello is a lazy and gutless person, and he doesn’t want to be the leader who loses.
He’s not going anywhere.
Looks like he’s set to stare down the challenge.
Sky News have been hung out to dry by these Lib sources. Used and abused. I think they’ll be back pedalling within a few hours. They’re already hammering the distinction between these ministers asking Howard to step aside and privately wishing he would.
This is great! The longer he leaves it the greater the in fighting. The more they look like a rabble. The longer Howard leaves it the bigger the mess! The ABC news radio and TV have been full of it. It doesn’t matter what they do its going to be slaughter at the polls.
Labor couldn’t afford to buy advertising like this.
Dario,
“As Hewson said, the only he’ll go out is in a box”
Maybe a ballot box?
It looks like Tristan Jones has figured in about 10% off the polls. Would that be GST?
Add Matt Price into the mix and a Press Conference with the Canadian Prime Minister where Howard said through gritted teeth that he won’t quit. He could go for a drive to see the Governor General as early as today.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mattprice/index.php/theaustralian/comments/an_epic_day
I would see this kerfuffle as an admission that the government doesn’t believe it can win and are looking for scenarios that would limit the loss of seats. It may be insanity but more likely blind panic and just illustrates that the public opinion polling must be pretty well reflected in the governments own research.
Drop by @10, this is exactly what it is.
You do not do this if you believe your party can win. I believe Downer and Turnbull now look to try and limit the damage and believe that getting rid of Howard is the first step. Howard is still suggesting he can win, but the front bench are starting to doubt whether he can.
It is falling into place now. The CT analysis from Possum put us on the path and the rest of the news is pushing us down it.
Howard now strongly denying that he will go, vowing that he has ‘never run from a fight before and I don’t intend to do so now’
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/i-wont-run-from-fight-pm/2007/09/11/1189276670103.html?page=fullpagehttp://www.smh.com.au/news/national/i-wont-run-from-fight-pm/2007/09/11/1189276670103.html?page=fullpage
I just don’t know. He looks finished. Very unconvincing all day yesterday, and he and Abbot looked like they were talking to the backbenchers with their media appearances, trying to stave off a revolt.
Unless it is some half-baked strategy to make him look strong and resilient and a fighter.
Who is running the deadpool?
I would be highly surprised if Howard quits for at least the following reasons:
1) He is unquestionably the best chance the Libs have of holding onto government. None of the potential aspirants could resist an even greater blow-out than what we’re currently looking at.
2) He is also the best hope of holding Bennelong – and if the Libs can’t hold Bennelong then they have no chance of holding the line
3) If he were to leave now he would be accused of ‘cutting and running’, which we all know he’s opposed to – whether at home or in Iraq
4) If he did leave now he’d carry all the blame if there was an election loss and get none of the credit if there was an election win.
5) He isn’t the type of person to be told when to go – he’ll decide that for himself on his own terms when he’s ready – and fair enough, he’s earned it.
All of that seems to add up (in my book at least) to Howard leading the party into the election.
The only real question is – will he follow in Bruce’s footsteps?
Tristan,
Surely such optimism is over-exuberant, given the state of the polls AND the betting markets. Before dismissing betting odds, remember that in 2004, the odds ALWAYS favoured Howard over Latham, regardless of the polls. This time, it is vastly different: The punters are heavily behind the ALP. In fact, at sportingbet, 75% of all money wagered is on the ALP. So expect to see a Rudd government very shortly
There is much being made of the “Costello won’t challenge line”. I’m pretty sure this is what Malcolm Fraser said right up to the moment he challenged Snedden. No one worries about that anymore or even then because the leadership issue had to be settled.
The mechanics are quite simple.
At the next Party Room meeting Tuckey gets up and moves the leadership vacant or a no confidence motion in the leadersship.
Howard is deposed.
Costello and Bishop are elected as the new team.
QED.
The disarray is on the Howard supporters side. They will reluctantly fall in with the plan to stop all the speculation.
The article I read has a link to a quote from Sky News. How come Sky News knows? rumours are largely industinguishable from news these days; whose loose lips are sinking this ship? Because this rumour needs to go away, and fast, or we’ll be heading into election week with commentators saying “the only thing left to wonder about is the size of the ALP majority”. And that’s assuming that Costello doesn’t try to pull the rug out from under Howard.
…which would be phemonally dumb. Even if you can’t win, you need to talk like you’re not beaten. this is just an admission of defeat. this is like Day 1 of a grand plan to re-invigorate the Liberals in time for the 2009/10 election.
also, can anyone tell me the times of this meeting that the Growler refers to? because, by my watch it’s 12:45 in Canberra now. So this will all come to a head…
…any…
…minute
…now.
Whoever said “a week is long time in politics” will need to rephrase. In the current environment, a week resembles an aeon.
I said last week during APEC that we might see Howard getting in his car after the close of the conference and driving quickly to the GGs before his colleagues could get the knives out. It’s beginning to look like he wasn’t fast enough.
It’s time for the popcorn and choc top ice cream. The entertainment has begun. Take your seats please.
“Costello and Bishop”
I dearly hope you mean Julie, and not Bronwyn…
Sniff Sniff.
Roadkill
Either Howard, the Liberal party or both.
I reckon the polling for next week’s Newspoll should be underway pretty soon. Any predictions? I’ll plunge in with a 62-38 2pp split.
Oh, and pass the popcorn please.
David Speers from Sky News got the direct leak.
I was wondering, though, how do the Labor party respond to this? What questions do they ask in Question Time? Do they focus on policy or badger Howard on calling an election? Or do they ask Downer or Turnbull whether they support Howard continuing on as PM?
So, what’s the thinking? If Howard can make it through the day, is he here until the election?
David Speers (skynews) was interviewed on ABC 720 in Perth this morning. He cites indepentent credible sources as saying Downer and Turnbull, seperately went to the PM to say they no longer believed he was there best chance to win. According to David’s sources they did NOT ask the PM to step down, and did not threaten a spill. Saying they thought he was doing so badly he needed to go was enough.
But David’s main point was, particularly if they don’t have an alternative candidate they are agreed on, after the PM’s 7.30 report last night it was clear the PM wasn’t resigning for ‘health’ or ‘family’ reasons to go ahead and leak this stuff is critical. But for the deliberate leak this stuff would have started dying away today.
So they seem to be looking for a bloodbath, who does that help?
Oh, and if you run out of popcorn, barbequed roadkill on a stick can be tasty too. But it has to be the right roadkill.
apologies for spelling grammar and the occassionally just wrung word.
As much as I’m enjoying the attention being on Liberal infighting, I think the media outlets are pushing most (or all) of this speculation. The media should get back to what the pollies are going to do for this county, not who’s staying, going, ahead in the polls etc.
The allegation that Howard has had Botox treatment is misplaced. Has anyone seen the Smirk lately?
This is amazing stuff. The government is basically dead on its feet. Who would have pictured this a year ago. Change leaders if they want to but it wont stave off the 5 reasons why this government will end:
1. WorkChoices
2. A competent Opposition leader
3. WorkChoices
4. WorkChoices
5. WorkChoices
Just a quick update on the betting markets:
Herbert has “fallen” to Labor on Portlandbet!!! That gives Labor 76 “seats” – the first time they’ve gotten a majority of seats on Portlandbet.
The other interesting thing to note is that whilst there has been the predictable flow to Labor in most seats over the last couple of days, there has been a move BACK to Dana Vale in Hughes ($1.40 to $1.32). No idea what’s going on there…
swing lowe: they don’t. they just release policies with as straight a face as they can and let the Liberals pull themselves apart at 6PM every night. From what I can tell, the deal is sealed, but I was figuring that the ALP polling figure is soft andf will sink a little. What was the previous 2pp high for an incoming ALP government? Because, maybe we’re looking at a record.
Perfect opportunity for Rudd to remain balanced and focused for a united Australia. The statesman in time of need…
Precarious times I would suggest.
6. Workchoices
7. Interst rate rise
8. Workchioces
9. Workchoices
10 Workchoices
Mike_f,
The previous highest 2pp for an incoming ALP federal government was 53.2% in 1983. If Labor gets anywhere close to its current polling figures at the upcoming election, they’ll get the record for sure.
If Rudd was smart – he’d make himself scarce all day and let the vacuum be filled by journalists questioning Howard.Not being in the news cycle is sometimes the best alternative.
Its been said before but this is Stanley Melbourne Bruce all over again. It lokks like the majority of the Australian people have decided that there is one component of the Australian Settlement that will not be jettisoned.
Possum, you’re CT analysis was the tipping point. You’ve destroyed the liberal party. I hope you’re happy. I’m ecstatic.
Nah.
Possum,
How does he avoid the issue in Question Time? What does Labor do there? Do they comment on the leadership tensions (particularly after Beattie resigned yesterday)? Or do they ask questions about the damage poker machines has on families?
Possum. Can you please tell me the legality of Howard’s position within the party rules. Can he remain leader if that is his wish?
jasmine_Anadyr
Don’t apologise for bad Spulling… pupple just thunk you’re from Noo Zuland.
Swing Lowe: What are the odds for Herbert? Herbert in the last 30 years has become a Eden-Monaro for QLD? I can’t access betting sites at work.
Swing – Rudd has to be careful that he doesnt look like a smart arsed prat.If he goes for the throat of Howard over leadership in QT, it wont necessarily be a good look in puntersville, especially as a 10 second grab on the news.
Gecko, I’d imagine that Howard serves at, and only at the pleasure of his party room… but I’m not the person to answer that question with any authority whatsoever.
nath (34) – I see only two scenarios now:
1. A repeat of 1929, as you said, included in a record ALP 2PP or
2. A new Lib leader before the election, with uncertain effects on the electorate. It all depends on what the Libs decide to do this week. And it has to be this week.
This is by far those most incendiary political day of the year so far. If nothing happens at the end of it, there will be an even worse variation of #1 above.
I can’t see anything else happening from here, including any supposed Liberal miracle comeback with Howard still leading.
“Matt Price is The Australian’s political sketch writer.”
I think the polls are way out. How about 70% ALP 2pp 30% Lib afte this lot.
In my view there is now one thing, and one thing only that Howard can do to stop all this speculation…call the election TODAY!!!
Will,
Herbert is currently $1.80 for Labor, $1.87 for Coalition.
Expect Page to go next – it’s at Coalition $1.75/Labor $1.93 – down from $1.70/$2.00 last night
Possum: I said in the ‘Peter Out’ thread that Labor has been trying to do policy announcements in the last 2 days. They need to cool off, regroup and go in for the kill when the time is right. Not getting media attention on these positive policies isn’t going to do them any good, better to let the air clear. Also talking about the Libs leadership spills could look like hubris, Rudd just needs to say ‘They need to sort it out for the better of the country’ and not comment on anything else.
I sure hope the rodent’s not for changing (to paraphrase Maggie T); i wish to see him utterly humiliated by losing his seat and having his party reduced to a parliamentary rump.
I’m with you Will
Perhaps the best strategy is to ask no questions at all.
Alternatively just one..”Ãn view of Mr Beattie’s graceful resignation, does the PM intend to proceed with the Council amalgamation referendum?”
Michael (44) is right. You can pull back some of a 57-43 split, certainly not enough to win a majority, but to a respectablish 54-46 (maybe) but you can’t pull back 59-41 and save nearly enough face. At this rate, there’s enough defeat looming to keep the ALP in office for eleven years. We’re talking about a realigning election.
Howard’s big mistake will be waiting too long. Because soon the stories will be about things like “Julia Gillard: Australia’s first female Deputy Prime Minister – isn’t that just neat?”, and “what will Labour’s first 100 days in office look like?”. It’s when stuff like this is cemented in peoples’ minds that the fan gets stinky. And if nothing else, John, if you’re there are reading this; the press are bored. And any old thing is going to be a story.
Gecko, the party forms a government with a leader elected from the caucus. This may be undone at anytime during the election cycle by a simple vote of no confidence (cue Iron Bar Tuckey) at an official caucus meeting. There happens to be one such meeting tonight by the way.
From there the party disendorses the leadership of Howard and elects a new leader. That leader forms the head of the elected government. The GG is informed and passes the leader into the status of PM at which time he is sworn in.
Thats my understanding of how these things go. There is no law suggesting Howard must be removed, rather that he is disendorsed from the party. The GG will then deny any motions to dissolve parliament if he is not endorsed.
Or maybe a policy question like:
“Considering the harm that gambling does to Australian families every year, how can the Prime Minister justify encouraging thousands of families across the country to take a punt on the election betting markets as a result of his inability to control his own party. For the sake of Australian families that are impacted every day by problem gambling – can the Prime Minister get his act together?”
I know this is pushing it and was talked about yesterday, but a vote of no confidence or a censure motion of the PM that would test the parties numbers could be interesting. Since it would force the Libs to publicly back the PM, or dump him. Of course it would go down to party lines, but any speculation after that would just show it was a hollow vote. I’m just dreaming, I think I will just wait for the blood to flow tonight or tomorrow
Rudd at question time should simply ask:
“Leadershipchallengerssaywhat?”
And see how Costello responds.
what a fitting end for someone nicknamed “the rodent”, cornered in his hole in parliament house by both sides of politics, stamping his foot and demanding obedience. He’s such a Billy Hughes character, small, angry and defiant.
Like Mr Swing Lowe, I have been following the bookies. What amazes me is how the bookies have so many seats still safely in the Liberal camp. If what I am hearing about the polling in SA, how is Southcott so far ahead in Boothby (even allowing for the Barbie-Doll factor)? Same goes for Sturt (even though I reckon Pyne will hang on). Also stacks of other seats like Wentworth, Longman, Dutton’s seat in Brisbane and Page. I also reckon Howard will go down with ship in light of what has occurred the last few days. That is why there is something to be said for him resigning now.
The way things are going, I will be pleased if we get out of this train wreck with 60 seats.
Look what he said today at the press conference I’ve ‘never run from a fight before and I don’t intend to do so now’.
He is publically saying to Turnbull / Downer “If you want me to go you are going to have to challenge me, I won’t resign on my own accord.”
In other words, if the challenge happens, and if it succeeds or fails is irrelevant, Howard simply wants to be able to blame someone else for bringing the government down, he isn’t going to help them out.
46
Will Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 1:12 pm ….Rudd just needs to say ‘They need to sort it out for the better of the country’ and not comment on anything else.
48
Possum Comitatus Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 1:13 pm ….I’m with you Will
I’m not so sure. I think there is a lot to be said with sticking to your game…getting the policy out, being seen to be running your own race…..while the libs writhe in agony elsewhere…
As I’ve remarked before, the main role of the political parties these days is to serve as standing electoral colleges – to recruit, protect, promote, elect and support leaders – and if necessary, remove them. The Liberals have to exercise this function now, or the public will remove them instead.
I cannot think of a more compelling situation than the current one: a fatally flawed leader and an election to fight: we will see what the Liberals are made of….
Thanks Grooski, Possum.
Devastating Sep 11. What of Sep 12?
Hi All!
Been a big fan of this blog for awhile and here is my first post.Howard will fight to the death to stay as PM. He is addicted to power as a junkie to smack. The question arises does he have the numbers? I don’t know but it is interesting that the current poll in the Oz (on who should led the libs to the election) has Howard (33%) just nosing in front of Drovers Dog (32%) followed by Costello (19%) and Turnbull (12%).
I think that the rodent will just hang on unless Peter Beattie lends Rusty to the libs.:) Can’t see Yello Costello with his sultana balls getting more votes in the electorate than the rodent.
Waiting for question time to start, the house of reps media stream is playing “ride of the valkyries”.
From wikipedia: “In the opera-house, the Ride, which takes around eight minutes, begins in the prelude to the Act, building up successive layers of accompaniment until the curtain rises to reveal a mountain peak where four of the eight Valkyrie sisters of Brünnhilde have gathered in preparation for the transportation of fallen heroes to Valhalla. As they are joined by the other four, the familiar tune is carried by the orchestra, while, above it, the Valkyries greet each other and sing their battle-cry.”
Mike F, 54-46 is not “respectable” – that is a rout and would be the Tories’ worst result since at least 1946, and perhaps earlier
Possum (52) – Touche
… you are good 
….
Sky News which I have on in the background says that they are cutting momentarily to the “official lunch” for the Canadian Prime Minister. If there is a lunch going on now, and QT is supposed to be from 2 to 3 and the Canadian PM hasn’t yet addresses Parliament I don’t think – won’t QT be just shuffled off of the schedule today?
The term to use for Costello, Downer and Turnbull is ‘gutless wonders’. Step up to the crease, swing your bat, and if you miss go back to the dressing room with your golden duck.
The electorate has lost respect for Costello with his ‘I was promised the position’, he shows no leadership, zip! Downer and Turnbull allow the rumour to start and hope Howard would put his neck on the line and they can ‘deny deny deny’.
How many times has Howard really been tapped on the shoulder, for him to say ’show me the numbers and I will stand down’? That would be interesting to know.
QT is at 2.30 today
Canadian PM has already addressed parliament
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22399238-5005961,00.html
What indeed, Gecko? I’m waiting for something massive and unscrupulous from Howard, attempting to change the media narrative. A 9-11 anniversary terrorist plot uncovered and foiled? Sudden lockdown of airports and ports for unspecified reasons? Stay tuned…
He has already made his speech, it started at around 10:30.
What I worry about is this. This terrible leadership speculation will probably feed into Newspoll, say it is unchanged at 59 / 41, then that will just provide more support for the Dolly-Turnbull faction to tip Howard out.
I wanted him to get voted out
It might be time for the PM’s Department to release copies of that grainy old photo of Rudd having lunch with Osama. Can’t think of anything else that might do the trick.
ALP now favoured in bennelong, at betfair!
ALP: 1.77
Coalition: 1.83
http://www.betfair.com
Simon (65),
“I wanted him to get voted out”
In the final analysis, no one will worry about how the result happens just that he is bloody gone already
just remember howard has form re distractions
what better distraction than a faux challenge followed by the “the man of steal’ standing firm and leaderlike
takes all oxygen out of bad series of polls and rudds ascendancy
also shifts agenda back to leadership
Re (62)
ruawake Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 1:35 pm
QT is at 2.30 today
Crap
……… have to pick up the kids at school today, I am going to look for a portable radio that carries the AM band so I can get ABC coverage while out of the house
53
Will Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 1:22 pm ……I know this is pushing it and was talked about yesterday, but a vote of no confidence or a censure motion of the PM that would test the parties numbers could be interesting. Since it would force the Libs to publicly back the PM, or dump him. Of course it would go down to party lines, but any speculation after that would just show it was a hollow vote. I’m just dreaming, I think I will just wait for the blood to flow tonight or tomorrow
…
Will…..it would be a great idea if some libs could be counted on to defect…..but they won’t….this matter has to be settled in the party room by the Libs themselves. Rudd should stay as far away as possible from the turmoil and keep offering his own story….fresh ideas, strong, unified and stable leadership, letting the people have their say….
Howard, by declining to call an election and defying his Liberal challengers, is making things much much worse for himself and his party. He is more or less declaring to the world that they are unelectable and inviting his fraternal execution. What an ego! It is too late for him now….
blindoptimist: Problem is, is that Rudd had released 2 policies yesterday, one being funding a road in Eden-Monaro, and the other is increasing the war veterans pension. Labor had a round table with the manufacturing industry yesterday about Labor’s plan to increase productivity. Most people would not have even seen it as it got swamped with post APEC stuff, Beattie resigning and the whole leadership speculation. A day or two break won’t be much and Rudd and Labor will get more media attention than they need.
I think everyone should take a deep breath. As Paul Keating said a few weeks ago, JWH is “araldited” to the seat. You either put the sword through him or the electorate will put one through the lot of them. Senior government figures are plainly bewildered. I reckon they can’t really believe it is happening. They won’t push Howard. It is not so long ago that seasoned Howard supporters were fixed in the view that “Howard does nothing without a reason”. Blind faith and toadying were and remain the order of the day He seemed impregnable and, to them, we never had it so good. You see, these guys didn’t read the census figure that put the median wage for all employees at $480 per week and understand what it means. Their constituents are the guys who managed to speculate on $0.02 and $0.03 uranium stocks in May to gain windfalls of several hundred percent when the Government’s uranium mining expansion announcement was made. Contemptable – the lot of them. But be careful what you wish for. Remember the old Who song “meet the new boss…”
How very practical of you Julie
The Hon the Leader of the Opposition:
PM, given that more than three years of your Government will have passed, before the 2007 election, will you immediately act in the national interest to give Australians the choice between the Liberal Party and the Australian Labor Party thereby ending the unhelpful speculation and confusion by calling on Her Majesty’s representative the Governer General of Australia to dissolve Parliament and issue writs for an election ….
What sort of political party is it when a figure of public merriment like Dolly can be a senior figure with real authority? Dolly Downer… King Maker!
hey Chris from Edgecliff (59): you’re right.
As is, I’m seeing the wilderness years for the Libs ala the UK tories and the NZ National Party, who after being toppled in 97 and 99 respectively are still stuck on the opposition benches, and in both cases are still running the risk of being beaten again at their next elections.
54-46 is a lot easier to recover from; it can be 51-49 in three years, if you’re clever. 57-43 means that John Howrd will probably not live to see the next Liberal PM.
Some posts above beat me, my thinking is this stuff is either about liberal ‘post election loss’ positioning or is just trying to buy more time. Mr Rudd should just make the point that given an election is due, it is silly and unhelpful for the nation to be distracted by internal Liberal fighting, the nation should be focusing on the choice between Liberal and Labor.
Any questions after that back to policy and govt failures.
Swing Lowe @ 28. I only counted 14 ALP “gains” on Portlandbet last night. What was the last seat to fall before Herbert?
People here believe what they want to believe, and their speculation now is over the top. Today will be a big fizzer for the Howard haters.
LOL! Sol Trujillo has just backed Rudd for Labor’s plan on broadband. http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22399593-31037,00.html
Possum (72 ),
“How very practical of you Julie ”
It has already paid off, Piers Ackerman was just on in an interview trying to hold the party line. More or less told the reporter that Bolt and Milne didn’t know what they were talking about. Is he that stuck into the mud that he can’t see the handwriting on the wall?
Re (78)
Rupert Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 1:52 pm
People here believe what they want to believe, and their speculation now is over the top. Today will be a big fizzer for the Howard haters.
ONLY because the Libs party meeting isn’t happening until tomorrow. Don’t think I would expect any move prior to that point.
QT is listed as 2pm in the TV guide.
This leadership speculation is wonderful! This will last until at least Thursday! Meanwhile, no one is at the wheel of the nation.
Thsi would be a good investment for the election campaign, just keep it locked on NewsRadio: http://abc.net.au/newsradio/
It’s usually at 2, but it was delayed until 2:30 because of the Candadian P.M.’s address.
Here it says that it will start at approx 2:30:
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/info/daily/daily.pdf
Will (71)… yes…though someone must have noticed the releases.
On the other hand, this turmoil in the Liberal ranks could go on for quite a long time: with the notable exception of Wilson Tuckey, the Liberals dont seem to have the ticker needed to defy Howard, so this could just descend into a comic melee….
If I was Rudd, I’d be doing what he’s already doing….staying on schedule, staying busy and demanding an election..
Q Time just started.
Rupert why are you even here?
I’d say “Howard haters” (lame name by the way) are torn on this one. They want to see him embarassed by being unceremoniously dumped… but aren’t sure whether by his people would be more satisfying than by the public.
Highlights of Canadian speech only.
Question Time starts at 2:30 EST.
Question Time:
http://webcast.aph.gov.au/livebroadcasting/asx2/hms1v_100K.asx
Who thinks Rudd will censure Howard for failing to provide stable government?
Will Rudd try to make a point of this, or will he just ask questions about policy?
Rudd just got finished with a nice short speech at the luncheon and now Harper is addressing the luncheon group. That is live (as others have noted the formal speech already happened earlier this morning). They must be more or less just “walking across the hall” after Harper is done speaking here …
Simon, I’d say Rudd’s best move will be to not comment in Parliament on the leadership speculation. Make a few small comments if asked by the press about how the public deserve a solid answer on leadership from the Liberal Party and knowledge of who will lead the party into the future.
QT is from 2.30pm today
Here is an article you will certainly appreciate “Call the election please”.
It pays to be one of Oprah Winfrey’s pets! According to an insider, Oprah’s pampered pooches stand to inherit a whopping $30million if they happen to outlive their owner.
“Oprah has a menagerie of animals and she wants them to be pampered for the rest of their lives if she were to die first,” a friend reveals.
“She has five dogs plus various other pets, so she rewrote her will to include millions for their care.”
Although a $30million trust fund may sound extravagant, it’s not much more than pocket change to the media mogul. “Oprah’s a billionaire so that’s not a lot of money if you look at her entire net worth,” her friend points out.
I think Rudd should look vaguely supportive of the PM, should reiterate it is about time to call the election, and that the Liberal’s chose to stick with the PM last year and that the election shouldn’t be delayed just because the liberals don’t know if they still trust Howard or not. Let the PM call the election so the national interest can be focused on, and if these trouble makers want to overthrow the PM it is really an internal liberal party matter.
wow…really Simon, and I thought we had a public service too. There has been a “phoney” election campaign going on for a while now, so in a sense the present government is a caretaker one until the poll. The “leadership speculation” fascinates visitors to this website but for the rest of the low involvement voters, life goes on with or without Howard (or Costello or Rudd for that matter).
fight fight fight fight
hopefully will spur ratty to drive to the GGs for tea and scones
Listening to SA radio. QT at 2.00
Michael Says:
In my view there is now one thing, and one thing only that Howard can do to stop all this speculation…call the election TODAY!!!
Or they have a party meeting and one of ‘em gets up and moves that “the positions of leader and deputy leader of the Parliamentary Liberal Party be declared vacant”.
I have a vague memory from the 80s that they don’t even have to have a seconder for this sort of motion under PLP rules.
In the meantime talkback in Sydney has gone into meltdown with Glen’s aunties and uncles ringing up to give their support to the Rodent, condemn Turnbull (in particular) and blame everything on the MSM and journos.
I don’t think that costello has any intetion to challenge Howard tomorrow in the Party room but i do believe that there is a chance will emerge as Prime Minister.
At the moment Howard is backed into a corner with the leadership he cant quit as this will be an admission that he had gotten it wrong a year ago and he doesnt want to lose his seat and be at the helm when to coalition are defeated the only way for him to get out is to be rolled.
But how do you make that happen ? well you get one of your most loyal supporters (AD) to start talking to people, leak the word that you’ve been told by senior ministers (AD and MT) to step down, this creates a media frenzy where there is a growing public consesus that you will be rolled. The whole time you pretend like you want to fight it out but when the vote happens only Costello nominates as a bloodless Coup is the way this should be sorted.
The election comes and go’s your Costello your Party Nemisis was Prime Minister for 2 months, lost the election then slipped into electoral oblivion.
Ahh, Mr. Rudd should just hammer the theme that if a PM doesn’t have the support of his party – how can he expect to have the support of the nation.
….and oldie but a goodie – he doesn’t have to get personal, just stand, statesman-like, above the fray… Swan or Albanese should get stuck in though!
As someone else said earlier today – I too am getting sick of foreign leaders coming here and telling us how excellent John Howard is… btw does anyone else think Dolly put Harper up to speaking in French?
Yes really! One reason why the government has such serious problems in the polls is because it hasn’t be able to explain what it is going to do in the next term.
This leadership speculation will play on the TV news tonight, and simply reinforce the judgement that the government is concerned with itself, and not with running the country.
Michael @ 77,
The following seats are “gains” for Labor at Portlandbet:
Dobell
Eden-Monaro
Lindsay
Parramatta/Macquarie (redistribution issues)
Bonner
Herbert
Blair
Moreton
Bass
Braddon
Solomon
Hasluck
Stirling
Kingston
Makin
Wakefield
I count that as 16 seats – which gives Labor 76 “seats” = majority
Bets Suspended On Aussie Vote; PM Support Wavers
0326 GMT [Dow Jones] Election betting specialist Lasseters suspends betting on Australia’s general election as speculation surrounds future of PM Howard; prior to betting freeze, ruling Liberal-National coalition had drifted to A$2.75 from A$2.60, while opposition Labor firmed to pay A$1.45 from A$1.50. “If the PM is to get the tap on the shoulder (to step aside) then (opposition leader) Rudd may as well get his keys cut for the Lodge (official PM residence),” says Lasseters’ Gerard Duffy; “where there’s smoke there’s fire and we aren’t prepared to get burnt in the process.” Adds will re-open betting once coalition leadership issue resolved.(
The House of Representatives – where governments go to die
They are all very slow to get to their seats. Perhaps if it was a boozey Canadian lunch then it could get interesting.
The press gallery is all there.
Beazley says Howard will be gone in a week:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22399773-11949,00.html
Fizzer of a first question from Rudd.
Hargrave and Vasta cleared by DPP over priting allowance rorts:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22400068-29277,00.html
No it wasn’t, it will be on the news and / or 7:30 report tonight.
Howard doesn’t exactly seem his normal cheerful self at QT…
Every day the speculation continues with no result is a winner for the ALP.
“Adds will re-open betting once coalition leadership issue resolved.”
Ummm… at the risk of pointing out the obvious, the leadership issue can only be resolved if either one of the following happens: (1) an election is called; (2) Howard goes as PM before the election. If Howard stays, the leadership issue will be on slow burn, until the day the election is called.
Anybody else notice that Rudd is turning up the rhetoric on Costello. Preparimg for ‘Plan B’ maybe?
“An economy doesn’t run itself” – Peter Costello
Well, market economies actually do. Peter Costello sounds like he wants to lead a politburo in the U.S.S.R., rather than the Liberal Party.
YES! This is what I want, I’ll vote for slow burning leadership speculation, with a side serving of electoral wipe out.
Garrets question is a beauty!
Still laughing about it.
Costello vs Howard:
When An Unstartable Force Meets An Immovable Ego
This QT seems to look like a bit of a phoney war.
Both parties are trying to avoid the elephant in the room, most probably they realise that neither can gain if they actually ask questions about it.
What I did notice is that the Government front bench seems less animated than usual – they’ve probably got other things on their mind…
Keenan from Stirling should really have asked his opponent in Stirling about Iraq why would you ask Dolly?
Dolly blinding repeating the rubbish that no-one in the US believes … sighs.
He always sounds like he is about to cry when he speaks, I wonder if the same happens when he speaks French?
This Betrayus fellow is just completely political, and everyone knows it, why do labor extend him a curtesy that he doesn’t get at home, where everyone knew what he was going to say, and that is was wrong, weeks before he said it?
Tell us the questions, not just how great they are!
Abbott got asked a dixer about Medicare. He mentioned that bulk billing is more commonplace, and is now talking about Labor considering cutting the Medicare safety net.
Howard is now trying to explain why every other country on earth is looking for away out of Iraq and he is trying to look strong by not thinking about it.
sounds like Qt is a bit of a fizzer
Just finished the question time broadcast. Labor asked no questions on leadership.
Labor frontbenchers showed no sign of smirking or gloating.
Howard looked decidely uncomfortable in answering his first question, twitching and shuffling his feet.
Peter Costello gave no support to Howard when Howard was on his feet answering questions; no supportive nods, laughing at his jokes or meaningful eye contact.
In contrast when Lord Downer rose to his feet Costello’s demeanour changed noticeably; he looked at Downer, nodded in approval and laughed at his cracks.
Mclellan asked Howard about plans for a withdrawal from Iraq. Howard says, paraphrasing, “Ner. The US have a million times more troops, so you can’t compare them”.
Shrek’s on so it is over and out from me.
Yeah, that’s a cool question time – tonight’s news will not be distracted from the main story… Liberal self-destruction.
Union bosses blah blah blah
Hockey was asked a question about…ahhh, it doesn’t really matter. He is saying that “50% of Labor candidates are union bosses”. Labor tied to unions, want the unions back, workers will pay etc.
Think I will tune in to Auntie tonight. Will be a good old laugh, and I will get to watch the reruns of QT.
Garret asked a cute question to Howard about some comments that Downer and Turnbull made about the uselessness of ‘aspirational’ type agreements dealing with carbon emissions and climate change.
First thing Howard did was tell the house what lovely chaps Alexander and Malcom were. Made me laugh!
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pollies-learn-their-lines-from-labors-script/2007/09/10/1189276635259.html
“The notes include lines such as: “Mr Howard has had 11 years to deal with (insert any issue) and is only acting now because there’s an election on. He’s gone stale and is desperate. It’s time for a fresh approach and new leadership on this issue.”
The material was handed to Labor caucus members during an election briefing by ALP national secretary Tim Gartrell. A copy was obtained by the ABC.”
Thought I had heard all this several times before.
Gillard to Hockey – “You didn’t say in 2004 that you would change IR laws to remove unfair dismissals, remove award conditions, etc. Why should we believe you now for post-election plans?”
Hockey – “We’ve delivered high real wages, more jobs, lowest level unemployment in 33 years. Wanted to remove unfair dismissals on 44 seperate occasions – Labor blocked 44 times. Would have you believe Labor love small business. Concerned about losing jobs, but more concerned about people getting jobs. Unfair dismissal was impedement to long-term unemployment – most benefited by removal of laws are the disadvantaged.”
Labor now $2.25 for Canning, and $2.20 for Leichhardt on Portlandbet!!
Hartsuyker to Truss – trade question.
Truss – “Hey, that APEC was great. Australians sure are friendly. We’re a trading nation, ooh, APEC sure was great. Lots of people who we like are in APEC. APEC makes jobs. APEC helps exporters. Government will continue to fight to liberalise trade environment. Doha round – industry wants it, and needs a Government to support it. APEC will help liberalise trade. APEC Free Trade, that would be even better. ”
An aside – Truss is kind of hypnotic to listen to.
Truss – “APEC makes doing business easier, thanks to APEC business card scheme. APEC helps fight corruption. APEC developed strong agenda – positive action. Labor opposes bilateral trade agreement – has never negotiated one – contributes nothing. APEC. APEC.”
Was anyone listening to Warren Truss?
Maxine has been backed into near favouritism in Bennelong.
CBet 3:15 PM EST. Ratty: $1.80 Max: $1.85
McKew has firmed 25 cents in the last few hours. As William headed the thread, there is “movement at the station”, indeed.
I know that the betting market has been pretty accurate for election results as a whole but does anyone know its performance on a seat/electorate level?
portland shows Turnbull blowing out from 1.42 to 1.55 in Wentworth.. first movement since ?24/8? Alp prob frm 36.4% to 41%
Gillard to Hockey – “Said in 2004, only have a policy if you are planning on changing the laws. Recently said, we will have an IR policy before the next election.”
Speaker – “Jules, don’t say “your”. That won’t fly.”
Hockey – “Minister will see policy well before election day. We believe fundamentals of workplace relation systems are right. More jobs, lowest level of strikes, etc.” Let’s face it, you know what he is saying.
Umm… does Truss realise that it was the Hawke/Keating Government that was behind getting APEC up and running? Of course Labor knows the benefits of it.
Rupert of course the ALP have an election script. I’m sure the Coalition does too. Sounds like standard election tactics to me.
Cabinet minister, Peter McGauran said:
“We know we’re a long way behind our opponents, but we’ll fight the political battle to the death.”
Or did he mean to say, “to OUR death”??
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22399956-12377,00.html
Haase to McFarlane – “Any resource news from APEC?”
McFarlane – “Oh boyo, yes. Everything must go, boy, lots of money for resources sector. Tangible outcomes from APEC. High level of international confidence in Australia’s resources sector. Labor forecasts end of resources boom, and promise to abolish key component – AWA – we are working with industry to deliver jobs, etc.”
Nah. no balls!
Howard will take the coalition to a resounding loss.
And if I were Smirk I wouldn’t touch it with a ten foot barge pole!
Sky News told us to tune into QT because of leadership speculation. They obviously don’t know how politics works. QT today was utterly predictable. A subdued Government and a disciplined Opposition. Rudd’s question on election timing will play in the news clips tonight. Most people will agree with it. The real story will be in Howard’s office. Howard will talk with Minchin, Downer ( maybe), Loughnane, Morris, Nutt. They will know there will be no challenge from Costello- but they will also know that radio, TV and newspapers will only be covering one story from Canberra: will he or won’t he. And they know it will continue right through the week. It will all be about leadership and who supports who. Ministers and backbenchers will ” background” and on it will roll. That will widen the Newspoll gap another three to four points. And leadership speculation will start all over again from next Tueday. I thought Howard would have quit by today or called the election. If he puts his Party before himself, he will call the election this week – probably now on Sunday, for maximum coverage and on his terms.If he does not it will simply mean that he puts himself ahead of his Party. No surprise there.
Darryl,
Seat-by-seat betting was (I think) first tried in the NSW State Election this year.
From what I recall, they were mostly accurate, but they didn’t predict a few incumbent losses (both Labor and Independent).
From memory, they didn’t pick:
Tweed (Lab to Nats)
Port Stephens (Lab to Libs)
Lake Macquarie (Lab to Ind)
Pittwater (Ind to Lib)
Manly (Ind to Lib)
Not sure if that highlights a favoritism towards Labor or to incumbents in general – although my leaning is that it favours incumbents too much, as they are almost always installed as favourites in the markets (for example, Portlandbet had only a handful of seats moving towards Labor when they started their seat-by-seat betting, but now it’s up to 16)
Dinsdale to Scott: Please stop paraphrasing Dorothy Dixers.
Big question: What’s Dennis Shanahan going to say tomorrow??
Rudd to PM – Workchoices question. “Will PM confirm that Workchoices allow award conditions to be stripped with no compensation, and no remedy.”
PM – “Nyah – Gillard has done the same thing. Workchoices was a great change, subject of fear campaign by unions (note – I count that as 300 ‘union’s from PM). It’s not legal to strip conditions in return – not legal as result of the fairness test. That doesn’t trouble union movement, Labor party. What matters are outcomes – 370,000 more people in jobs since Workchoices. 85% of those new jobs are full time. Wages have risen, 21% higher in real terms (he just defined “higher in real terms”), now the PM is starting to buffer.
PM – “If he watched 7:30 Report, he would have seen I said one of coalition goals is for the first time we might be able to have a full employment economy. Canadian PM said today anecdote involving Chifley. Chifley made a full employment pledge, as a social justice goal. Why does party of full employment have an IR policy that will destroy full employment possibilities. [More jobs, less unemployment, bet he says flexibility and unions shortly...] Small business will be destroyed with unfair dismissal laws.
to be fair to Scott, Dinsdale, someone back there did ask for the questions… and you can’t expect Scott to do it verbatim!
Some food for thought.
There are 108 members of the Liberal Party Room (I think – where do the CLP sit?)
Of them, 81 were elected after the 1993 election and so have never known defeat at a general election. (Three members and a senator were elected during the 93-96 term so briefly knew opposition).
Clearly this is uncharted territory for the vast majority.
Cadman, Jull, Prosser and Wakelin are retiring. Assuming they lose government Howard and Ruddock are likely to retire (or be defeated).
That will leave at most 13 lower House Liberal MPs who have ever seen opposition (assuming no other retireemnts and that all these hold their seats): Tuckey, Hawker, Downer, McArthur, Slipper, Costello, Somlyay, Andrews, Moylan, Pyne, Abbott, Bishop, Georgiou.
It will be interesting to see how they cope with opposition with little experience.
Surely they are just covering themselves in case Howard resigns.
If it is Howard v McKew at the election, I still think Howard would win his seat.
Notice how Hawker/Britton has gotten repeated mentions by the Coalition today in QT?
An acute bout of projection me thinks.They seem to be trying to cut the Crosby Textor stuff down before it starts.
It wont work.
re Garret’s question.
The prime minister said that the comments about “äspirational”goals were made in response to something the ALP said… In other words, “ïf you say it it’s bad. If we say it, it’s good”. Typical weasel.
Brendan Nelson is a strange, strange man… he is a ghoul. Definitely botoxed – his face just does not move. Just that monotone voice. He scares me even more than Dolly! Does anyone know if Brendan has a nick name?
Re (119)
“Fizzer of a first question from Rudd.”
I missed all of it
:(:( ….. ABC radio had the bloody Senate, not the house. Hope it was good for those who watched on TV 
John
that is his nickname
his real name is richard cranium
Spanky
Is Howard staying to lead the Libs into the election an aspirational goal?
QT was a fizzer. I think Rudd is doing exactly what Adam said he should do: stay schtum and allow the Libs to drown in their own shizen.
Looks like there is going to be an MPI debate, cos heaps of opposition members are staying.
Dinsdale, are you serious – is it Spanky… if so, I can live with it – very funny. Dolly and Spanky… wouldn’t you love to have dinner with those two!
Just realised, Chaser is on tomorrow night, that would just add some fuel to the fire. Those pesky, lefty, anti-APEC, ABC cronnies will cost JWH his election. I’m sure JWH would love to axe that show, or the ABC if he could.
Chaser is not funny any more. This has nothing to do with whether they should/shouldn’t have breached APEC.
They just aren’t very funny. They’ve jumped the shark.
Little Britain got this way towards the end as well.
“It will be interesting to see how they cope with opposition with little experience.”
Oh my God. How can we vote such an inexperienced team into opposition? If they haven’t put in the hard yards at losing how can they possibly manage the business of sulking and recrimination and complaining about the smaller offices?
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to anything a flat-Earther like the Bolta says.
After all, he’s been wrong all year about Labor’s prospects of winning (only changing his mind in panic in the last 5 minutes) when blind Freddie could see a Landslide has been coming since at least March.
No
Well, in the absence of a better (or indeed real) nickname – I’ll cruise with Spanky.
Either the whole Downer and Costello push story was a complete fabrication by a journalist who has beer for breakfast, or the story was shot in the kneecaps before it could take a second step.
I don’t want to hear the sordid details of what you’ve got planned for the weekend!
In fairness, I think we should promulgate this new moniker for Brendan throughout the web.
Pass it on. Use it in posts, emails etc.
If someone can get Tim Dunlop to use it, it might take off.
Crispy: How will they handle it when the Speaker says – ‘The members on my left’. It must send shivers down their spines.
You can laugh – I think Glen was making a similar argument in all seriousness not long ago
But seriously, if you think it looks bad in the party room now, it could get a whole lot worse next year…
Will, it took me a good five years to get used to the words “Prime Minister John Howard”. Let ‘em shiver.
Watching the broadcast of the matter of public importance on ‘low’ quality I just had a midnight oil moment as Garret waved his hands jerkily thanks to the internet.
Turnbull “one track and committed to meeting the kyoto target” did they sign Kyoto while I did a bottle of SSB?
sorry ratify not sign … of course we signed it…
Oh dear …. libs party meeting might be brought forward to this evening …
(from Crikey)
“The party room is due to meet tomorrow morning, although there has been speculation of a meeting this evening after Harper departs.”
AND Howard is an out and out liar too, remember his line repeated ad nauseum about “when my party says it is time to go”? (also from same articl)
“Last night, the Prime Minister said “I’ll stay as long as my party wants me to”. Crikey understands he has been told that it is in his party’s interests to go. The Prime Minister disagrees. “
One of the reasons that the Libs have not been able to get a handle on Kevin Rudd is that he has been very good at shutting his mouth.
Can’t imagine he’ll behave any differently this time.
And, as if by magic, Piers began using it in his tanty blog in response to some posters.
Matt Price has been updating his article all day. He notes “Costello’s studied silence is fuelling the instability. Rudd did the same, remember, when he broke a lifetime habit and made himself unavailable for comment for a couple of weeks before rolling Beazely.”
I don’t reckon the moving forward of the party meeting means anything really. It could just be that they want to knock this on the head quick so it doesn’t make bad headlines for tomorrow’s papers.
He will do what he did a few months ago and pretend to put his neck on the line. No one will have the guts to stand up, and we will still be stuck in limbo. A few days later we will get another leak and we go through it all again.
Can the PM head off to the GG BEFORE the party meeting, and announce the election date in a door stop on the way in, and then anyone in the party to make a move?
From the SMH article
That sounds like very qualified support to me. Not exactly designed to house down speculation.
From The Age on betting on the election -
Another bookmaker, Centrebet, said it planned to close its election book tonight and reopen it tomorrow after the leadership situation became clearer.
Centrebet analyst Neil Evans said the company had shortened its odds for an ALP victory after taking bets for a Labor win worth $75,000 in the past 24 hours.
The company is now offering odds of $1.37 for a change of government, while the price of the Coalition being returned to government has blown out to $3.10, up from $1.40 when Kevin Rudd took over as opposition leader in December last year.
“The weight of money for the ALP has never been stronger in this calendar year than in the last week,” said.
“Overnight, we had two election punters prepared to wager $20,000 and $15,000 on Labor at $1.40,” Mr Evans said.
Who knows? This whole charade may just be a Crosby/Textor polling strategy tip. We all know they will blindly follow anything told by their pollsters.
Poor old Libs, ripping themselves apart. It’s a rat-eat-rat world now.
jasmine, PM can go anytime he wants.
GGs website indicates he is in Canberra, so Howard can visit anytime.
http://www.gg.gov.au/governorgeneral/
Sorry, appears the GG was in Melbourne earlier on, don’t know if he is back in Canberra.
Vice Regal News – 11 September 2007
On Tuesday, 11 September 2007, at Melbourne Town Hall, Victoria, the Governor-General, His Excellency Major General Michael Jeffery AC CVO MC officially opened the Returned and Services League of Australia National Congress 2007.
Afterwards, the Governor-General received the National President, Regular Defence Force Welfare Association, Colonel David Jamison AM (Retd).
Earlier, at Braddon ACT, Her Excellency Mrs Marlena Jeffery was guest speaker at the Canberra City Ladies Probus Club.
My Parliament House spies tell me that the Liberal staffers all expect Howard to be gone tomorrow. It looks like it’s really happening. Both sides will have to redo all their campaign ads now. Goodbye Man of Stell, hello Man of Tinfoil. Expect to see a lot of footage of Costello spruiking the Masters and Servants Act.
I have a related question four our constitutional scholars out there. If the PM did so in the current climate, would the GG be obliged to accept his advice? Or could he say that he needed to be convinced that the PM still had the confidence of the House?
Sorry William but why would he need the confidence of the House to call an election? if the House weren’t sitting would he expect Howard to recall Parliament?
It’s not like 1975 where the budget needed to be passed.
William I’d presume that the Governor-General would just assume the Prime Minister had confidence unless otherwise provided. This means that unless there’d been a vote of no confidence in one of the houses (GG Kerr took the view that a vote of no confidence in the Senate was enough although other GG’s have taken a different perspective on the issue).
That being said I don’t think it’s ever really been tested before. I wouldn’t imagine speculation in newspapers about a leadership issue would be enough to warrant the Governor-General rejecting the Prime Minister’s request for the House to be dissolved.
Further to the above. The requirements for an election to be called (ie timelines) have all been met.
Say it’s not so Adam, the Australian people have to reject the man and his odious policies and politics.
Howard wants to be seen to be putting up a fight so he can’t be accused of cutting and running. He wants to be able to say that he was determined to stay on and fight the election therefore avoiding the tag of Howard the Coward. It’s all about protecting his ego.
I think Adam has answered that and moreover I think he is correct
The GG would be entitled to seek reassurance that the PM had confidence of the House before accepting his advice, as Governor Campbell did when JB-P advised him to sack five ministers.
Wouldn’t the GG need demonstraited proof of Howards loss of confidence from the House liek a Censure. Also all Government members are publicly saying that they are supporting Howard, if he go’s off to the GG is the GG going to knock him back because he thinks they are lying to the media.
As i called earlyer Howard will be gone and he had himself rolled with Costello as the unknowing Patsy about to take the Wrap for the Coilition forces.
The issue would not be whether he has the confidence of the House – a PM who loses the confidence of the House is not just entitled to ask for a dissolution, he is obliged to do so. The question would be whether the PM had the support of his colleagues in asking for a dissolution. If the GG formed the view that the PM was seeking a dissolution to avoid being deposed by his party room, he would be quite entitled to refuse.
I think it’s a matter of convention, and the convention is that the G-G retains a discretion to refuse a request to dissolve parliament when the PM asks him to do so.
Brian, look upon it as execution by opinion poll. So much for the old ‘there’s only one poll that matters’.
No Martin that’s not what I said. I said “colleagues” not “the House.”
Adam can you actually imagine the current Governor General refusing to grant an election to John Howard? Practically?
Yes.
Surely if John Howard went to the GG and asked for an election it would be granted no matter the circumstances.
The election is due now, if he was calling an early election it may be different.
In any case I can’t imagine it happening. It would be absolute suicide whereas if he clings on, stares down his opponents and then faces the polls it’s only likely suicide.
I just don’t see Mr. Howard giving up – leaving – standing down or aside or whatever. That tone in his voice about ‘not running away from a fight’… the fella sees it as a fight! He will take the party down rather than lose the ‘fight’. Or rather, in order to take a disspirited, bitter and angry party to an even bigger defeat. By god, the ‘conservatives’ will tear him apart after the loss. He is destroying his place in the conservative pantheon. Remarkable. Just have to look on in amazement.
Reuters poll trend is out:
PM has fallen further behind, losing three ponts to now sit 57.4 p/c to 42.6 p/c behind (TPP), a shift of 3.2 points.
On the primary, it’s 48.9 p/c for the ALP and 37.9 p/c for the government. Last trend back in mid-August was 47.1 p/c to 40 p/c.
Preferred PM is 49.1 p/c for Rudd and 38.2 p/c for Howard. That’s also moved out from 47.5 p/c and 39.1 p/c last time.
What a day!
K David : I believe you have got the scenario in one. John Howard, who raised the question recently, “Is it me?”, cannot lose face by resigning (he would be a coward and pig-headed.. why not last year?), so he allows his loyals to precipitate a spill, saves face and they save their necks in the new shuffle. Brilliant. Could Howard be the master politician, even in his own demise?
To boot, he doesn’t suffer the ignominy of being only the second PM to lose his seat and Costello may just taste the bittersweet experience of being a PM for a couple of gruelling, soul-destroying months before fading into oblivion…
Swing Lowe: NSW seats & betting market. I would concur with you. In an absence of other information, the incumbent effect will often create a buffer for a similar reason that referendums often fail.. the Aussie Maxim “if it’s not broke, don’t fix it”.. Of course, citizens there usually know more than punters!
Can anyone tell me what Sharon Thiel (Labor Kalgoorlie) does for a living? Her website is mysteriously silent on this question. I presume this means she is a union official or a party staffer and doesn’t want to say so, but can anyone confirm this?
If the GG says no to Howard on an election on the spurious idea that Howard does not have confidence of the LP, he is effectively saying that an election should be delayed until the Parliament is automatically disolved in mid November by the processes in the Constitution or disolved earlier at the advice of the next PM within that same two month period.
I could imagine the GG saying this if Parliament has a few years left and there is no double dissolution trigger – but it seems ludicrous with only 2 months to go of this Parliament.
http://www.emilyslist.org.au/candidates/candidate.asp?id=239
Politically, Sharon is a union activist who campaigned against the introduction of WPA and subsequent AWAs in Newman, and is the ALP branch Secretary for Newman (three years). Sharon also assisted in the last two State and Federal Elections.
The wonders of google.
Crispy while i can’t argue with the mans single mindedness and work ethic. I’m worried he will shuffle off into the sunset with his electoral myths much intact, man of the people, political genius etc. He’s had incredible luck and a poor opposition and thats about it.
G.O… did you see the front bench in QTime today. Half of them, could now be described as Howard Haters! This is not some cool Machiavellian plan to ’save face’. This is an honest to goodness conservative disaster.
The GG knows an election must come in the next 12 weeks.
He is hardly going to refuse the curreent PM, his party situation is not an issue that the GG would even consider.
The party is free to change leader any time it wants. I think one party has in its constitution that all positions are declared vacant after a general election. In theory a party could win and immediately change leader.
Adam, according to http://abc.net.au/news/australia/wa/northwa/200704/s1905275.htm:
Ms Thiel currently works in the electorate office of state Fisheries Minister Jon Ford.
Where does this come from? My understanding is that where this occurs the G-G is entitled to appoint a new PM without further consultation with the old PM in some circumstances.
I don’t think the governer general would have a choice in the matter, if he refused to call the election, then Howard could easily refuse to recall the house. He would then probably move to sack the GG – my wouldn’t that be a fun little period? Anyway, it’s only a month or so to go until the house is dissolved anyway. The only thing the GG could do – on the basis of his reserve powers – is dismiss the PM, and we all know how well that went down last time (thank you very much Mr Kerr)
Point is, if the GG refused to follow Howard’s advice, he would be doing so purely off his own advice and instinct, not under any constitutional power or convention. It is not the role our head of state to predict what the outcome of a party meeting will be, nor is it his role to care what the outcome is anyway, he is to follow the advice of the Prime Minister of the day, and the Prime Minister is the person who has a majority support in the House of Representatives. Which, as of right now, is John Howard, and when the House adjourns tonight, he will still have the formal confidence of it.
**
Having just refreshed the page… Adam, obviously you have a slightly different view of this? I’m prepared to accept your analysis over mine, but to be honest I wouldn’t think the views of ministers count when the GG is ‘considering’ whether to grant a request – until those views vote no confidence in Howard in the House.
John Howard has never won the leadership of the Liberal Party when he had to “fight”. He has always been elected unopposed.
So what makes him think he is a fighter? He may say it but there is no evidence.
I honestly would prefer the GG to just accept the request of the PM. It wouldn’t cause a constitutional crisis and the election would just go ahead.
I don’t think Howard is a person who would lose the party room and then race to the GG. He may be a rat, but not a dirty rat.
Bishop rules out move to WA State Parliament.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22399309-2761,00.html
Good ad by WA ALP on Page 2 of the Worst suggesting that
Thanks Alex
I also would expect and prefer the GG to follow the PM’s advice. But I think he would be within his rights not to, if he thought the PM was seeking a dissolution to avoid being deposed by his partyroom.
Anyone object to reversed ordering of comments?
Wil @ 71 worried that the ALP announcement re funding for a much needed road upgrade on the outskirts of Queanbeyan in the Eden Monaro electorate may be lost in the hubbub of the leadership contretemps.
No need to worry, Wil. It was on the front page of the Canberra Times today, all over the local and ABC TV news last night and will be in the very next Queanbeyan Age to come out. The interesting point about the announcement was the main target group. The main beneficiaries of the policy would be those living in Jerrabomberra, a satellite town of Queanbeyan populated by a demographic more likely to be Howard hard core. (Builders, developers, real estate agents, mid level military personnel and the like, all denizens of McMansions). If the ALP feel comfortable chasing their votes, they must be doing better than even the rumours say they are.
Yeah… I object don’t like scrolling upwards… messes with my mind. Though, I guess I could get used to it – hell, in comparison to 11 years of the Coalition government… it’s nothing!
William Bowe Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 5:05 pm
Anyone object to reversed ordering of comments?
Yes, easier to read latest comment at bottom of screen and you can comment easer on the last post without scrolling etc.
#239
Fine with me.
Howard’s cancelled the “Party Room Meeting”. Running scared now.
Woah… are we reading backwards now?
I suppose threaded discussion is too much to ask for?
Dud idea William. Just coz the comment box is at the bottom.
Glen must be having a heart attack
No William I don’t like this.
Also, when you have broken a thread up into blocks of 100 comments, I don’t like it when I hit the “refresh” button and it takes me back to the start of the thread rather than to the start of the current block. Can this be changed?
I love upside down, or anyway really, but can the type the thing in be near the last thingy?
Oh and I can’t believe the libs are doing this. Wish I’d put my house on Maxine.
So thats what happened to the site. Couldn’t figure it out.
In regard to Howard fighting it out. I’ve seen him bowl, so if he fights like he bowls it’ll be no contest.
William – best option would be to start at the top of the most recent page of comments (i.e. page 3 at the moment) but then still go downwards, if that makes sense.
Or to have a link at the top which goes to an anchor at the comments box.
There will be no going to the GG tonight, the laws relating to the EI inquest are going before parliament tomorrow. The racing industry will be REALLY pissed off if they have to wait for a new government to propose the laws, unless of course under the caretaker convention something like this can be approved.
Reverse ordering of comments is terrible. Please change it back.
Where’s Mr Squiggle today? “It’s upside down Miss Pat!”
William – good idea I’m sure your bandwidth is getting sucked dry this week.
Resolved in the negative. Patrick, that is exactly what I would like to do, but I can’t work out how and was opting for reversed comments as a second-best.
Laura Tingle said on Phillip Adams at 4.15 that it was now a case of
“John Howard versus the government”.
Peter Costello has stayed silent on the issue.
The only way we will know if the leadership challenge is off is if Peter Costello announces his unequivocal support for John Howard.
Until then it is on.
John Howard won’t allow a Liberal only party meeting on Wednesday but only a joint party meeting where he couldn’t be challenged.
As the speculation continues the Coalition support will diminish.
The leadership issue will need to be resolved one way or the other in the party room.
This is the worst situation I have ever seen a government in just weeks before an election.
Their position was bad enough before all of this. This will make it much worse.
There is nothing as bad as a divided party.
Meanwhile all Kevin Rudd has to do is announce policies in various marginal electorates and keep right out of this damaging debate.
After all if he were to intervene, the Liberals would turn on him as one.
He would help unite them!
As Phillip Adams said John Howard would need to be dynamited out.
The ministers and members are running around Canberra evidently like chooks without heads.
What a mess!
William,
Re: configuring the flow of comments…
One of the conventions of web and indeed print design is that (western) people read from left to right and from top to bottom. So your comment flow should be configured around this convention ie earliest to latest comments running from top to bottom.
John Rocket gives about the only version of Howard I can recognise in this thread. He won’t resign in a fit, and the Libs do not have the capacity to get rid of him, shown by the fact that the main alternative is Costello.
Adam I think your PH ‘spies’ need a cup of tea and a lie down, you don’t think perhaps they are pulling your leg?
With Howard cancelling the party toom meeting, does this mean he intends to sneak off to visit the GG without the express wish of his parliamentary collegues or is it just to try and buy some more time to have his loyalists do some frantic lobying to try and stave off a leadership challenge or, as it seems more likely, a leadership spill.
He must be fairly certain a spill motion is on.
I don’t think it is the case that a PM who loses a confidence vote is obliged to advise the GG to dissolve parliament, although they must resign their commission. The GG is entitled to inquire if anyone else can form a government that has confidence and if so, commission them.
Also, the GG does not have to assume the PM has confidence. During Joh’s implosion in late 1987 (recently discussed in another thread) the Governor was wise to the fact that Joh’s attempt to sack certain ministers might result in a Ministry without the confidence of the Assembly, and said he might recall parliament to test it.
d
More popcorn! Quick!
Earlier in the day I thought the Machine had organised a swift coup and Costello would smoothly take the reins. That worried me. But what’s happening is a train wreck and confirms what a shabby bunch of losers this government truly is. The professionalism was all facade. Amazing.
Remember they still haven’t passed their Local Government Plebecites Bill yet either.
I doubt the election will be called before that.
One of the things Laura said was that Liberal members are saying to her “what do we stand for?” They have tied themselves so completely to John Howard that when he goes they will have to re-think what it means to be a Liberal.
{Also, the GG does not have to assume the PM has confidence. }
The GG only has to consider the confidence issue if the PM looses a vote of confidence on the floor of the House.
That is not going to happen. He can of course loose the confidence of his collegues, but that would not result in the GG requesting that an election be called.
The party would have to resolve the issue and elect a new leader.
Downer and Turnbull are now getting behind Howard 100%. (ABC replaying Downer on Sky.) Costello has said nothing.
“Frank Calabrese Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
Bishop rules out move to WA State Parliament.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22399309-2761,00.html
Good ad by WA ALP on Page 2 of the Worst suggesting that
”
notice the ‘authorised by Bill Johnson, ALP hq’ hahahahahahahahahaha
Julie at 193
When is the party room meeting on tonight? Is it on tonight (according to Crikey)?
Costello is conspicuous by his silence
This thing is like watching a train wreck in slow motion
Who is on 7.30 report/Lateline tonight?
Let the fun and games begin…..
As someone said on the Matt Price blog, this whole thing was started when someone spotted Turnbull & Downer at Bunnings buying araldite remover and a crowbar.
So what am I going to do with that bottle of bubbly I just put on ice?
If Howard has cancelled tomorrow’s party room meeting then that means he is trying to avoid a leadership spill. I think it shows that he IS running away from a fight!
Julie Bishop only needs about a 15% swing to lose Curtin. Maybe she is headed for state politics
{When is the party room meeting on tonight? Is it on tonight (according to Crikey)?}
I advised on an earlier post, THE PARTY ROOM MEETING HAS BEEN CANCELLED BY HOWARD.
Courtesy of Channel 10 News.
As for the Julie Bishop aside, the Libs in WA seem to have no credible leader of the opposition to turn to; Labor running a ‘Julie is coming home’ add is just good solid backstop stuff so if she does, it will look weak. Given it is a paid add as Blacklight observes it has done brilliantly and will make her look like a rat deserting a ship rather than a queen riding home to rescue the homeland.
Scorpio, John Howard has said that you can bet on the House sitting for two weeks, but that was last night. He may have changed his mind since then.
He is virtually on his own now and will make decisions on his own.
He is behaving more like a dictator now than a prime minister.
Evidently his colleagues were less than impressed that he discussed the leadership issue with Janette at length on Sunday night but failed to discuss it with them.
It’s not impossible that he will scuttle off to the GG without even telling his colleagues in order to stave off that leadership challenge.
It would certainly make it very hard to challenge him then but not impossible.
The smart thing to do would be to call all is colleagues together and challenge them to put up or shut up and get it over with immediately.
They may be obliged to support him after all their comments to the media in the last couple of days.
What really surprises me is that John Howard is prepared to put all his colleagues at risk merely because his ego won’t allow him to step down when it is clearly in the best interests of the party.
Surely it would be better to have the party room meeting sooner rather than later so the media can get over this speculation. If there’s one story journos love it’s a leadership story.
Geez,
Bennelong odds @ Centrebet:
JWH $1.80
Maxine $1.83
Other $17
Two things to note – Maxine’s price is falling consistent and quickly – she was at $2.15 at the beginning of the week. Second, the others price has fallen from $31 to $17 in 2 days. Everyone’s starting to hedge their bets now…
You know, Costello could kill all this speculation dead. If he said “I will not accept the leadership”, but he can’t bring himself to say that because he thinks he is in with a chance of becoming P.M., which to him is more important than whether or not he can win the next election.
Re Eggo @ 269
SirEggo Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Julie at 193
When is the party room meeting on tonight? Is it on tonight (according to Crikey)?
Well there were rumours it would be brought forward to settle the issue in time for tomorrow morning’s papers. But JH has cancelled it because he is running around like the chicken with his head cut off. If there is no party meeting, don’t know how a spill technically comes to pass. I’m not that used to the parliamentary system. I am a dual US-Aussie citizen. Perhaps someone who knows more than I can comment? How does a leadership spill happen in absence of the party room meeting since the PM is scared to death and has cancelled it?
So it’s off??
If Turnbull and Downer are supporting Howard now surely there’s no move?
The demise of the Prime Minister is somewhat over estimated on this board.
I think Howard cancelling the party room meeting will only increase the media frenzy now.
Don’t be surprised if there is a reversal of that decision if the front benchers kick up a stink privately and pressure Howard to reverse the decision and be forced to call the meeting.
The media are going to be all over this. He will say that he was misquoted as usual.
Well, it’s beginning to look as though Labor is going to get the best of all possible outcomes – Howard fatally wounded but not actually whacked. The poor old Libs can’t even organise an efficient assassination any more. What is it with Costello? Even Billy McMahon had more testicular fortitude than this. Rudd will be cracking open the Chateau Lafitte Diet Fanta.
My speculation about bringing it forward was to stop the non-Howard forces from getting numbers for Costello.
The fact he cancelled the meeting makes me feel maybe Howard thinks the tide is turning and that he doesn’t have the numbers to stay in power!
OK that’s just speculation, but seriously cancelling that meeting makes him look like he is running from a fight, which he said today he doesn’t do!
That article header, “Howard verses the Coalition”, spot on me thinks.
Man of Steel to Howard the Coward?
I am so enjoying this
Well Julie, Alexander Downer could call an informal meeting together and they could have an informal vote and announce that to the media. Or Alexander, Malcolm, Peter and perhaps others could hold a joint press conference to say they will challenge at the next opportunity. Or they could continue leaks here and there and keep the thing bubbling along.
It strikes me they lack the courage to do what they believe to be right for the survival of the party.
The only person who could bring this thing to a dead halt is Peter Costello.
He could hold a press conference or go on the 7.30 report and announce that he was 100% behind John Howard and it would be crazy to change leaders this close to an election. I doubt then that he would ever be PM.
One thing is certain, the longer this open wound is prodded the longer it will take to heal and fatal gangrene may set in.
“The GG only has to consider the confidence issue if the PM looses a vote of confidence on the floor of the House.”
Perhaps (although I don’t think the Fadden Government faced a confidence motion at the end) but the Qld experience was that the Governor was prepared to recall Parliament, against the advice of the the Premier, to allow an opportunity for confidence to be tested. This was a where the government’s party had a clear majority, but the Governor believed there was a question over whether there was confidence in the Ministry.
d
Howard may have canceled the meeting tonight so that he can rally around some votes to support him if there’s a leadership vote tomorrow. I’m sure that there are more than a few wavering Liberal MPs, who would probably stay with Howard if could give them a half-decent reason to.
Remember, 2 weeks ago, we wouldn’t have dreamt of having this discussion and Costello would probably have had at most a dozen supporters in the Liberal party wanting for him to take over PM.
Howard and Hawke both hard supreme self-belieff hence their unwillingness to step down. Keating forced a ballot to win, this is the test for Costello.
No Howard won’t run to the GG to avert his defeat in the partyroom, although Jack Lang once did something simialr and it worked.
Exactly! This is better than I ever thought it could be. Previously I thought that Howard in charge was the best secnario for the coalition, but it seems that they are going to injure him, without knocking him off.
He is GUTLESS! Piping Shrike sums it up the best, Howard and Abbott refer to Costello as Howard’s “natural successor” because he is too gutless to challenge. That’s the perfect type of successor for Howard to have! “Natural successor” is Howard and Abbott’s in-joke, whenever one mentions it, the other starts laughing. Costello is just too dumb to realise they are laughing at him whenever it is mentioned.
“Costello’s studied silence is now fuelling the instability. Rudd did the same, remember, when he broke a lifetime habit and made himself unavailable for comment for a couple of weeks before rolling Beazley. ”
Nice analysis by Matt Price there.
Portlamd seem to have withdrawn from Bennelong, which icvery odd, because Howard was shortening before this… Maxine out to$1.98 from $1.95… what a day!
BTW, I think the punters(if there are any) know as much as anyone on this blog, & psobably more than the MTM
{ but the Qld experience was that the Governor was prepared to recall Parliament, against the advice of the the Premier, to allow an opportunity for confidence to be tested. }
That was different in that a heap of National members including deposed Ministers had vowed to cross the floor and vote with Labor against Jo and a handful of supporters.
From memory, the Libs were prepared to cross the floor also.
291#
No point Costello challenging and losing if he can have the leadership on a platter. I can see Costello changing fortunes ala Gorden Brown.
I would’ve thought that delaying it just makes it easier for the non-Howard / Costello group to organise numbers. Bringing it forward usually helps the incumbent.
But if it goes to a ballot then that would just demonstrate division which will be exploited to the hilt by Labor. They trully have got themselves into a mess. Costello should’ve challenged last year, he didn’t do it, so now he needs to come out and say “I will not accept the leadership if it is offered”. This would kill the rumblings stone dead.
Costello had his chance, but didn’t take it, the time has passed, he missed the boat / train etc.
Fadden was defeated on the budget, whereupon the GG sent for the two rebels Coles and Wilson and demanded a guarantee that they would support Curtin if he was commissioned – this was wartime after all and the GG saw himself as the representative of the Empire. In those days he was able to demand stable government and be listened to.
I presume you mean “can’t see Costello changing fortunes ala Gordon Brown”? I think you are right and there’s the rub.
Surely Howard will promise to serve the full parlimentary term as PM if elected, clearly in the face of this promise, which many here have observed is consistent with the out in a box mindset, if he wins the others have lost.
Watching the libs implode is nearly as good as a date with jennifer hawkins.
He should just make this promise. Big deal if he ends up breaking it, it isn’t like he could be voted out!
I have just read Sir David Flint in yesterdays Crikey. He fantasises that Rudd will jump onto the sinking ship to rescue it and all the floundering fools aboard. Imagine Rudd joining the Libs now!
I’m sure that David and Alan Jones will fall asleep in each others arms the next few nights, weeping themselves into a state of hysterical exhaustion.
The mischief train has run out of puff @ the station.
Howard is still the train driver, and is right on the rails.
The damage has already been done. The government is starting to look like a rabble.
On the question of Peter Costello producing a better result, obviously a number of Liberals and many conservative commentators believe he would. I believe it would be no better and Bennelong would be a guaranteed loss. I do actually believe that Malcolm Turnbull would be capable of producing a much better result, but that doesn’t look likely at this stage. It seems to be Peter Costello.
It would be harder for Liberals to vote in Malcolm Turnbull than Peter Costello even though he may well be a much better choice.
They are in a hell of a mess. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t.
This latest bout of speculation has weakened John Howard and the Coalition even more.
Has anybody got a source for this apparent party meeting cancellation? I find it strange that channel 10 apparently broke it 40 minutes ago and nobody has ran with it since.
Rupert those rails are really rusty and the sleepers are dangerous. There’s a wonky bridge coming up which needed repairing with money squirrelled away by Peter Costello.
Reports of damage to the train are quite exaggerated.
All of you who were desperately trying to shovel coal into the engine room of a train wreck have run out of puff.
Rupert the train is about to fall into a ravine and there won’t be too many survivors.
You’re dead right Rupert…Howard is still the train driver, and is right on the rails.
BUT IS HEADING STRAIGHT INTO TRAIN WRECK!!!
Mark Riley on Seven seems to think that it is still on.
Seems to be some confusion about whether it’ll be a Liberal party room meeting or a JOINT coalition party meeting (the Liberal leadership is not a question for the joint party room).
Meeting is back on. Was called off a week ago by the Whips, but with the hares running, it’s back on in the morning ahead of the joint partyroom meeting.
Here’s the government’s spin at The Australian: link. Apparently there has been a consideration of ‘all the options’ and there will be no change of leadership.
It also contains a reference to Costello’s position, the first I’ve seen.
It only leaves about a million questions:
- where did the Sky News story come from?
- what’s going on with the party room meeting?
- has there been an informal poll of some description?
- what do the numbers actually look like?
- how do they hope to recover from this now that the genie’s out of the bottle?
Rupert the coal is being shovelled by someone in the liberal party, the real question is why.
This is not a media beat up, someone is fanning the flames and that person is in cabinet.
Hey Rupert look “Scoreboard!”
Could I just ask a general question… it seems that Mr. Turnbull is held in fairly high regard by many posters on this blog. Why is this? Am I missing something… I just can’t see this potential for greatness in him. If he reminds me of anyone – it’s Ian MacLachlan – he’s got the same whiff of the dilettente…
Rupert: welcome to the board! I won’t agree with any of your views, but we need a few more conservative voices here to balance things up a little bit more.
The Liberals have signed their death warrant, although Costello probably would have done even worse! “Disunity is death!”
Check out portlandbet.com: the ALP is favoured to win 76 seats and is getting mighty close to the Coalition in a dozen or so others.
As long as I still get my Rodent concession of defeat speech, I’ll be a happy camper.
Unfortunately the train is beginning to look like one from New Delhi
It is a fine train, and bright shiny one with those lovely black clouds of burnt coal smog in the air … sadly we need a government for the current age, not the start of the industrial revolution. ….
Surely Howard still has them 2/3 to 1/3. If it was close to 50/50, then a formal challenge would be on.
If it is close, then Howard has to go…
Is Bolt going to be collateral damage to this Howard insanity?
The train is definately running down a steep hill without brakes. It might have made the first corner but the big one is coming up ahead and the party is shovelling in more coal. Even if the train doesn’t crash, which is looking more and more likely, it is bound to lose a lot of carriages.
I think the media is still making the mistake of seeing this implosion in the form of a challenge. Matt Price is wrong to draw comparisons between Rudd’s silence and Costello’s. Rudd was silent so not to box himself in while getting a challenge ready. Costello is silent because he has nothing to say. He can do nothing but wait for it to come to him because he has no grounds on which to take it.
The Liberals can’t get their head around why they are losing so first they ignore the polls (and the media follows) then they see the leader that would give them the best result as the problem (and the media follows).
Would you be able to tell the difference if Bolt sustained collateral damage …. oh wait collateral damage isn’t um ok …
My guess is it’s Peter Costello hiding around the back of the house with a tin of petrol and a box of matches.
JHo wont let it go at any cost. And Smirk won’t challenge, hasn’t the gonads. And to be fair I wouldn’t touch the lib leadership (if I was inclined that way) with a ten metre barge pole at the mo!
By the way I don’t agree that this is all bad news for Howard. Pitching himself against a gutless coalition doesn’t make him look too bad (it does muck up the current strategy of playing up the team though …).
But Costello could kill all this off if he announced “I will not accept the leadership”.
There is no way they would go from Howard to Turnbull, he is too inexperienced.
Maybe Andrew Bolt might jump ship and start supporting Rudd?
I don’t mind him, he’s a smarter bloke than that fat oaf Ackerman.
Disagree Shrike.
All this leadership speculation shows that the Liberal Party is in disarray. This enables Labor to sustain the charge that if they can’t keep their own house in order then how can they run the country?
And at the same time this denies them clear air in the media to get their message across.
Both of these things have to count against the government.
“Pitching himself against a gutless coalition doesn’t make him look too bad (it does muck up the current strategy of playing up the team though …).”
Yeah, but what’s the point of having a strong leader when that leader is not going to hang around. All it means is that the rest of the rabble don’t have the guts to lead. Who is going to vote for that?
He probably wouldn’t do that as he would still want it if delivered to him on a plate.
Very true. His gutlessness has hurt himself, but now it is hurting his party.
John Rocket I think many of us are impartial observers and some see that Malcolm has the makings of a PM. I don’t share the view that because he is immensely wealthy he is automatically disqualified from consideration. After all Kevin Rudd is not exactly impoverished.
He is relatively small l liberal and has a very good brain.
He has been planning to be PM from the time he entered politics, just as John Howard planned to be PM from his teens, as did Harold Wilson from the age of ten. He is immensely ambitious and has the killer instinct which Peter Costello obviously lacks.
It would appear though that he may have to wait a very long time to be PM and may get too old waiting.
Evidently the Libs have decided to fall in line behind their crippled leader.
All we need now is for Peter Costello to make a supportive speech and the leadership issue will be dead, for a week at least, until the next poll!
Good point.
One of their very, very few positives for the Coalition as identified in that Crosby-Textor report has just been unceremoniously smashed into tiny pieces. And it increasingly looks to be for no real reason, if they’re not going to go through with a challenge.
On social issues yeah (who could be more conservative on social issues than Howard), but I’m sure he fully supports WorkChoices.
The Piping Shrike at 327… I think that certainly the glass half full reading of the event! Though, it’s probably how they’ll try to play it /sotto voce/!
At least we all get to watch the Libs implode.
HOW SELFISH AND DESPERATE IS HOWARD LOOKING!!!
Why assume that Howard will not hang around? I agree with Keating, he is Araldited to the seat. I think people are assuming he will go because, with no policies, they can’t imagine what on earth he would do.
None of this is much good for the party, of course, I’m just saying that compared to his pathetic colleagues, Howard looks principled.
I agree Simon, Costello is doing no good for the party – and they will pay him back in kind after the election. He will never be leader.
Predict the next poll will be a rogue?
In practice it’s the same thing, but in theory the PM needs confidence from the House. It doesn’t matter which bunch of people give it.
Normally confidence from the House is ensured by ensuring confidence of the majority grouping, so if the coalition declares support for a particular person, the GG can assume that that person has support in the House.
In rare cases, a PM may organise a different bunch of people to support them in the house, in which case while the ministry will probably change the PM may continue to advise the GG and have that advice accepted, which is what happened with Hughes.
I think Turnbull will be a real threat. If the Senate stays liberal and is played well, ie he makes a good fist of it, he will have a shot first time, and Rudd might lose. I know it is a long shot, but he is new enough to engender newness. There just isn’t time now to build a new look and feel.
Frankly I understand he needs support but you can’t have newness with Treasurer Downer. I don’t think you can have credible Govt with Treasurer Downer, so Downer would have to go. Turnbull, Bishop and Shrek (who can shake off worstchoices), with some new blood that isn’t extreme white wing.
I don’t have Canberra contacts and I don’t know why but this still feels to me like an attempt to make sure Costello isn’t able to be opposition leader (assuming he wants it). If they keep the senate then being opposition leader for 18 months will be fun.
The GG would be able to consult with the Deuty PM and other senior members to sound them out, similar to the way Casey consulted with McEwen and others after Holt disappeared (although that was a slightly different issue).
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2030243.htm?section=justin
{attempt to make sure Costello isn’t able to be opposition leader (assuming he wants it). }
Costello said in answer to a question by a journalist about an hour ago, that if asked, he would accept the leadership.
Thanks for that considered response, Richard.
I too agree that being immensely wealthy doesn’t disqualify a person… it makes it very tough though, lots of attacks can be launched upon such a person. I don’t know about ‘the killer’ in Malcolm… there’s a killer in Mr. Abbot… and there’s a psycho-killer in Mr. Nelson… or as Dinsdale named him… Spanky (ahh, it makes me laugh! I can just see him in a NAZI uniform with a riding crop… standing over an ‘aryan’ chick) but Malcolm, I haven’t seen much evidence on the basis of his public performances.
I remember a time when Mr. Costello was also considered a small-l and something of a saviour of the small-l-ers… it seems to me that there is an eagerness to proclaim any liberal who isn’t a lunatic as being somehow a moderate and somehow better. I guess I don’t know enough about other aspects of Mr. Turnbull’s beliefs (beyond the Republic) to comment on his small-l ness but I’ll try to keep an open mind.
I don’t think the Fadden Government faced a confidence motion at the end
The Budget was amended (by $1) which has the same effect.
It’s all relative to Howard! In terms of economics, Costello is the same as Howard, but perhaps not quite as willing to buy votes with big spending promises. Socially he is more progressive, but not that much.
Sorry, well beaten by Adam on that last comment…
I am sure Heffernan and Minchin have been kicking heads and threatening dire consequences.
Howard’s attack dogs may ensure he leads the Govt. to a record defeat.
(And yes I know it was ponds not $s in 1941…)
Martin, there is a HUGE difference between “confidence of the House” and the confidence of one’s Cabinet or party room colleagues. However I don’t feel like pursuing this now.
What I feel like NOW is expressing my deep satisfaction that the Libs have damaged themselves even further by undermining Howard but then lacking the nous and nerve to axe him. Brilliant. Next week’s Newspoll should be a total wipeout.
In my opinion I would speculate that Howard will twist and wriggle and squirm and fight and promise [core and non core] and threaten and bribe and steal and embrace and embarress and scream and shout and cry and laugh and smirk and lie to stay on, visit the GG in time for a November 3 election, and cop the consequences for hanging around too long on the chin.
Why? He can’t stand Costello any more than I can, end of story.
Rudd should just sit on his hands this week, watch the self implosion, and take notes for when his turn comes to face the electorate without party support. Any policy announcements he makes this week will be drowned.
At the risk of upsetting the rah-rah, I don’t think today will have much impact on the polls. People would see it as a more normal reaction to the dreadful polls than the dismissing of it the government has done so far.
See, Rudd should censure Howard tomorrow, and then see who turns up for the division!
Surely if it is over 59 then Howard will be challenged. Perhaps the non-Howard / Costello forces are waiting for parliament to end because they think Costello’s yelling at the dispatch box doesn’t look prime ministerial.
More likely Newspoll will settle back down to 57 or 58. I think 59 was an outlier.
(And yes I know it was ponds not $s in 1941…)
You mean “Pounds”. A pond is what the Lib’s ship is sinking in now.
Any ideas what the government is planning on doing with IR?
from ninemsn:
————————————–
Govt to unveil updated IR policy
The federal government will unveil an updated workplace relations policy before the federal election, Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey says.
Prime Minister John Howard told the Seven Network on Monday night that aspects of Work Choices had made people feel uneasy.
And on Tuesday the government confirmed speculation that it would release a new workplace relations policy before the federal election.
—————————————
“Coalition to stick with Howard for poll”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/st … 01,00.html
How can the Government Gazette seriously peddle this headline after today, and given the party room meeting for tomorrow has been cancelled. Give up The Oz, it’s embarassing…
Well take it up some other time because I am interested to know what you mean.
AFAICS I understand there is a difference but normally the former can be inferred from the latter, and if it cannot, as in November 1916 it is the former that is important, which is why the GG called on Hughes to form a government, not Frank Tudor.
Ashley @ 359
This was a question Julia Gillard asked Joe Hockey today in QT, he has stated that the coalition would release their IR policy well before the election.
Well before is running out
Is anything a ‘core promise’ to JWH?
ABC news implied that the party meeting is still on.
Yeah, Piping Shrike, I think the Coalition is basically at the nadir of their public support – as demonstrated through the polling. I don’t thing we’re going to see a Newspoll with TPP: 70/30… however, if there was any ’soft labor’ support – that will have firmed up a bit… also, that elite opinion you wrote about regarding Mr. Rudd’s Mandarin, well it’s hard to see the elites responding with renewed confidence to this latest debacle. Yep, if I was corporate donor… I’d be giving even more to Labor. Pretty terrible day for the conservatives… beyond terrible… Madness! MADNESS! By god! it takes me back to my youth… it’s Peacock/Howard all over again.
Today may not affect the polls nationally but it certainly will have a negative effect in Bennelong. Some of those that were hovering will now jump to Maxine.
I must hear a different Turnbull to other people. He does not have the media competence or facility with policy. He sounds terrible and the longer he speaks the worse he sounds. He seriously needs coaching about talking to the people through the media. Any decent interviewer would make him look silly. Rudd and Co would thrash him.
It is sad to think that he is the next best around for the Liberals all because he hasn’t fallen into typical Howard speak yet. The Labor party does have considerable advantages when it gets its factions sorted out in having a training camp for future ministers and leaders – the unions.
Who is going to trust them going anywhere near the IR policy again? It’s poison to them.
Apparently most coporations are now splitting their donations 50/50 between the parties. There was an article in The Australia last Thursday or Friday explaining this.
I have to say that today seems to have been a monumental waste of time – lots of talk, but nothing happened and its looks like nothing will happen.
If nothing does happen at tomorrow’s Liberal meeting, expect the government to release a new policy (I’m guessing a new IR one on Thursday) to distract media attention and get “back on message”.
As for next week’s Newspoll, I doubt it will be any better for Labor than 59/41 – at that level of support, there aren’t that many swing voters left to swing back to Rudd!
I wouldn’t be surprised with 57/43 or 56/44.
I’m willing to go on record and say that I would vote for the Liberals at this election if Turnbull was leader (and Howard was gone forever).
That said, given the chances of that are extremely remote atm, Kevin Rudd (and John Murphy) should be confident that they have my vote at this election.
There is election advertisement GOLD for the ALP in all these tired and emotional media appearances!
50-50 if the libs are lucky, Simon… after this… it won’t be 50-50. That upping of the anonymous donation limits by the Liberals… will work out quite well… for Labor.
Swing Lowe,
As a former Howard supporter I also like the look of Turnbull but I think it’s too late. Not enough time to work out what he’d be like as PM and he may not even keep his seat! I can’t see there being enough time for any new leader.
Well Costello did say he would wreck Howard, maybe he is delivering on that promise, I mean he has nothing to lose
I too have voted for Howard and the Liberals twice before. There is no possible way I will vote for this party now. It isnt just Howard – the whole party needs a very big clean out to get rid of all those hard-right wing nuts that still control things.
I think some don’t understand the depth of the problem. The Cabinet and others sat around and let Howard do what he did, basically trash democracy, accountability and decency. His Cabinet are no better than he.
The party remains in the grip of the right and need we be reminded that Costello is just as fond of WorkChoices as Howard and the others.
To vote for them simply because Howard has gone is simply to vote for more of the same. I didn’t realise people’s depth of understanding was so shallow.
John Rocket, yes I think it is the narrow circle around them that will be demoralised by today as the vacuum comes bubbling to the surface (mixed metaphor I know), especially the conservative commentators who still think there is a resolution to this. It was fun looking at Andrew Bolt’s breathlessly excited blog and video on the SH site today, as though something was going to happen.
There is NOT going to be a challenge according to this.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22402045-5005361,00.html
Downer is on 7:30 Report
Re (357)
“More likely Newspoll will settle back down to 57 or 58. I think 59 was an outlier.”
By the end of September, a poll “settling back down to 60″ will be a good one for the Libs ;-D
346
Scorpio Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 6:44 pm
{attempt to make sure Costello isn’t able to be opposition leader (assuming he wants it). }
Costello said in answer to a question by a journalist about an hour ago, that if asked, he would accept the leadership.
…….
Scorpio, this is an almost certain sign from Costello that expects to be asked. I think Howard will bail out within hours. He is cactus and he must know it. The Liberals won’t dump Howard: they won’t have to. He will walk out, unbowed to the end……And Costello will get his chance to show what he is eally made of, as, indeed, will Kevin Rudd…..
Thankfully Kerry O’Brien has been trying to keep Downer on topic rather than diverting to the ‘untested leader and his union bosses’.
@339
BV Says:
And it may seem triivial but at that presser he gave this arvo and he had that coffee wash on his upper lip.
blindoptimist Says:
He will walk out, unbowed to the end……And Costello will get his chance to show what he is eally made of, as, indeed, will Kevin Rudd…..
I’ll be bitterly disappointed if it does turn out like that. I really want to see Howard fight it right through to the end, lose his seat to Maxine and have his Government demolished.
He owes it to us after “workchoices”.
What is all this stuff about “John Howard has massive energy” that Dolly can’t stop mentioning to save his life? Minchin used the phrase twice in the previous abc news story on the lship too. Sigh. Roll on the election, this is so painful to watch… unfortunately I can’t look away
Scorpio at 294:
“That was different in that a heap of National members including deposed Ministers had vowed to cross the floor and vote with Labor against Jo and a handful of supporters.
From memory, the Libs were prepared to cross the floor also.”
The Libs were already on the other side of the floor and itching for an election. The Governor’s implied threat to recall Parliament was made at the very beginning of the crisis, several days before anyone was actually sacked, but he could read the papers and knew Joh’s support was evaporating by the hour and he was making a shabby attempt to ambush his opponents.
It is different from today of course, in several ways, not least of which is that Parliament is sitting and confidence can be checked without any unusual actions by the Crown.
I will mention though, that Joh held resorted to refusing to call Party Room meetings in order to hold on by his fingernails.
d
Howard wont quit – wouldn’t suit his ego. If he was dumped he can maintain the fantasy that he would have won the election except his unloyal MPs mistakenly betrayed him. He can then blame somebody else for losing the election his party.
Tom.
This leadership thing is gonna be like the movie “Ground Hog Day” until Howard resigns or the election is called.
Oh, bmwofoz – can I just ask whether it was you the other night – or was there someone posting under your name? If it was you I do apologise (assuming of course, that you are the real bmwofoz)!
Once again cabinet shows they have the hearts the size of a pea.
Howard will not resign, and it now appears that he will not be rolled. So we can all go and watch The Simpsons (or whatever)…
Scorpio (346) & Blind Optimist (380) – where did you hear that Costello said that? I haven’t heard it anywhere else, and surely the news rooms would include it any narrative about a leadership crisis.
It’s been quite a day, but it looks to me like the Libs went to the brink, Howard wouldn’t budge, and they’ve decided it’s not worth the blood to roll him. For what it’s worth, I suspect they’re right. Rolling the leader at this stage would be electoral suicide and they all know it. And at any rate, Howard is still, perversely, one of their assets (experience, gravatas, continuity etc) – let’s not forget that he still gets 50% approval ratings, pretty extraordinary after 11 years in power. And one final point – they can’t roll Howard, because they need his seat. It’s conceivable that JWH will hold Bennelong even in the midst of a meltdown for the Libs. If he’s not there, you can mark Bennelong up as a win for Maxine McKew. The Coalition can’t afford to give away seats like that.
All in all, a great day for Labor, with the best possible result – Howard surviving but mortally wounded.
Or watch the bookies go broke, Portland have nuked Bennelong again, Sportingbet Libs out to $3.05
The presenter of the popular BBC television show Top Gear, Richard Hammond, has escaped unhurt from a high-speed crash while filming the show………….wish this guy would take JWH as a passenger.
I thought Costello was deputy leader. Isn’t part of that job to protect the Leader?
Well it’s been a fascinating day. Clearly a lot of Libs want to change leader, but no-one has clear numbers, and it’s better and easier to re-unite behind Howard than split.
I’ve just been watching the 7.30 report with my 17-year-old daughter. She has no interest in politics, but pointed out that Downer didn’t seem to want to answer the questions he was being asked.
Actually, I thought Downer did a good job of eating a shit sandwich and proclaiming its nutritional qualities.
Who knows what will happen next. But I don’t really see today’s events as changing the polls much. The disunity effect will be balanced by grudging admiration for Howard, for not being a quitter, not cutting and running.
I agree completely with an earlier poster that Howard must be delaying calling the election to get the best value out of government-funded advertising. We got a “talk to your children about drugs” pamphlet yesterday. My daughter threw it straight in the bin before I got a chance to read it. I think she already knows about drugs…
The onus is now on Howard to roll out some decent policies. Expect further backdowns on WorkChoices, vague noises towards getting troops out of Iraq, a huge infrastructure fund and more!
{Scorpio (346) & Blind Optimist (380) – where did you hear that Costello said that?}
I think it was mentioned on the Channel 10 News. Suffering from overload following links etc at the moment.
Has enyone mentioned this yet?
{Leaked Liberal party polling shows that the Blue-ribbon seat of Eden-Monaro will go to Labor with a 6.9% swing. It is currently held by Gary Nairn (LNP) by 3.3%. The Labor candidate is an ex-army colonel, Mick Kelly, who has the notoriety of being an AWB whistleblower.}
If that is the case, it’s all over bar the shouting, I feel.
FantasyLand: The Happiest Kingdom Of Them All.
This September 11, with giggles and lip purses, Comical Doll-y explains the “perfectly natural” machinations of a government that is collapsing on it’s own footprints.
Dolly on 7.30 report: blah blah blah Howard Energetic blah blah union leaders blah blah inexperienced Labor blah blah blah
395
“Actually, I thought Downer did a good job of eating a shit sandwich and proclaiming its nutritional qualities”.
And, he was taking big bites!
Scorpio,
Just to temper your optimism – Eden-Monaro is around the 10th seat out of 16 that Labor needs to win to form government.
It’s a very good sign that Labor is ahead at this stage, but if they didn’t take this seat, they would have no chance of forming government.
If someone had similar polling figures about Page or Herbert, however, that would be a cause for celebration…
How come Rudd gets energy without having to be filmed on a morning power walk, wearing a ghastly outfit? (could it be the famed “leader’s yellow jersey” of discredited Tour de France fame?)
I guess though, that if I had a free house under the Sydney Harbour Bridge, I’d go for a walk each morning too.
Scorpio, where did you get that bit about Eden-Monaro from?
{It’s a very good sign that Labor is ahead at this stage, but if they didn’t take this seat, they would have no chance of forming government.}
It’s been put forward by commentators for decades that Eden Monaro is the “Bell Weather” seat and that the party that captures it gains Government.
That was the reasoning behind my comment. It may very well be an ezception this time, but I very much doubt it.
It is only when the advice comes from a ministry which may have lost the confidence of the assembly, or is undermining the constitutional system itself – either directly or indirectly through persistent illegality – that the Governor is entitled to take independent action.
The Governor’s constitutional duty to act on the advice of the ministry is usually performed by acting on the advice of the Premier – on the basis that the incumbent retains the support of the ministry. Where the Governor reasonably believes that the incumbent has lost that support, the governor is justified in requiring a reaffirmation of that support before acting on the Premiers advice.
Gerard Carney, The Constitutional Systems of the Australian States and Territories p283 (Cambridge University Press, 2006)
I presume this also applies to the federal government.
Scorpio, where did you get that bit about Eden-Monaro from?
It came from a post on Tim Dunlop’s Blog. Seemed legit.
375 Kina
Well said.
Putting my cynical hat on, how much of the media frenzy on this today is the press gallery’s revenge for the weeklong non-event of APEC?
Did everyone else catch this bit from the piece linked upthread?
Or in other words, the Sky News report this morning was true.
Downer said that the cabinet members are happy with JWH going to the election.
I would be more convinced only if one more man spoke up.
We have not heard from Costello fo a week. We didn’t hear peep out of him today about the issue. Him saying “I’m not interested” would have killed the issue well and truly.
I still have a sneaky suspicion something is up. Maybe there could be a back-bench revolt or something like that
Annabel Crabb on smh.com.au made the observation that the less you hear from Costello, the higher the chance that there is plot afoot. It may not come to pass tomorrow, but something may happen.
I also think people on this site really got their hopes up. You didn’t think JWH would go that easily, did you? Besides this way, people may still their concession speech.
I wonder if Howard’s concession to the party is that he will go to the GG this weekend.
For the Govt every Poll from now on will be like waiting for X-ray results. I would love a 58/42 but suspect we will get back to our normal 55/56 business. I wonder if we will get a Morgan phone Friday?
Surely, that’s it. Howard stays, takes everyone down with the ship. Alexander, mixed feelings, but there we go. 7.30 Report.
listening to pm ,where they interviewed people in bennelong,asking who they would vote for if howard resigned, most would vote for rudd
the comment that was common to all of them was ” it’s time for a change”
either this is not so subtle editing by the abc or there really is a mood for change
the polls at present predict “its time for a change”
“It’s been put forward by commentators for decades that Eden Monaro is the “Bell Weather†seat”
Hey Scorp, it’s ‘bell wether’, as in neutered male sheep leading the flock. Seems somehow appropriate today….
An interesting article on News.com;
JOHN Howard has missed his chance to bow out gracefully and should stay on to lead his party into the next election and face the consequences, NEWS.com.au readers say.
After we asked whether the PM should stay or go, the first post to the blog set the tone with this irreverent dig at the troubled leader:
“STAY!!â€, Supersmirk from Sydney said. “I want to see what other tensions will come to the surface prior to the election. This is fun!â€
Then reader Brian invoked one of Mr Howard’s political heroes to twist the knife: “I hope he stays as I want to see him beaten rather than walking away. It won’t be quite as good as seeing Mrs Thatcher get hers but will still be very enjoyable.â€
Perhaps preparing a latter day Don’s Party, reader Big W wrote: “I think he should stay. I have a bottle of champagne read to pop in celebration on the night he loses his own seat and his government gets tossed out by the scruff of their necks.â€
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22401447-2,00.html
Hugo et al
the decision the libs have to face is ultimately finely balanced. The options are
a) stick with Howard
pros – a proven election winner
– shows the libs are united
– shows stability
– he might have a rabbit in that hat
cons – he’s losing
– he’s seen as a man of the past
– he’s losing
– he’s been in too long
– he’s losing
b) go for Costello
pros – a new team might revive our chances
– might disconnect the govt from the mistakes of the past
– a chance to dump workchoices* and iraq
– a new team may wrong-foot Rudd and stem the tide
cons – a change now makes us look bad
– noone likes costello
– if we change we have to admit that we’re in trouble
The libs are only discussing change under the intense poll pressure. But change is always difficult. It is a proven psychological fact that people will only change under intense pressure or in crisis situations. Most people long for the security of the status quo, so it is very easy for power brokers to maintain that through fear and the herd mentality.
But once a shift has started, especially in a high-pressure situation, it will be impossible to stop the flood. Are we seeing a flood-tide?
* unlikely as Costello is more right wing than howard on IR
Johnny Rocket.
I wrote Post 24, you wrote post 26&27&29
I read above someone say a six percent swing in Eden-Monaro, this sort of shows Possum’s reading of the newspoll quarterly data saying the swing is bigger in safer seats.
So we are seeing 6% swings in Edan Monaro and Bennenlong, so for the polls to be correct somewhere the swing will need to be in double figures but where.
I found Downer’s performance interesting, only last week he appeared the loudest supporter of Howard, tonight he basically conceded the cabinet has spent most of the past week discussing leadership.
I don’t see any spelling mistakes!!
Up with how much more must one put? What If ? The election date actually went to JANUARY!!
No, all correct bmw. Well done.
I just wanted to get ‘neutered sheep’ into a post. Forgive me.
oyster said
It’s Howard’s own fault. He has been running this phoney election campaign for nearly 8 months. He hasn’t scored a killer blow, and everyone is sick of it. Let’s just get it over with. That sentiment will only increase until the election. Howard *is* the problem.
Downer has let the cat out of the bag in regard to their internal polling in his interview with Sky News today.
MR DOWNER: Look I don’t think you should be harsh on people thinking about all of our options during a time when they are concerned that “our polling is not going as well as”, the public polling, is not going as well as they might hope. But on the other hand, I think at the end of the day, they really see John Howard as the best option for the country and the best option for the Liberal Party.
Love it. Totally rattled.
re 373
paul k Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 7:22 pm
Swing Lowe,
As a former Howard supporter I also like the look of Turnbull but I think it’s too late….he may not even keep his seat! I can’t see there being enough time for any new leader.
Doesn’t Malcolm only have a 2% margin in his seat?
By making him the PM they would have to think that he could limit their (expected) loss to at least that swing?
Is that a feasible expectation at this late stage? Of course, he might win!!!
I personally think he is the best of a bad lot, and deserves to have a crack at Howard if only in revenge for being shafted on the Republican referendum!
Costello is too closely associated with Howard and all the Liberal policies esp WorkChoices, that are now on the nose with the electorate.
And what about his previous association with the HR Nicholls Society and the Dollar Sweets case? Certainly has been no friend of the working classes in the past!
I think he would have to do a huge repudiation of all of that even to start being halfway credible as an alternative PM…
And BTW I don’t like the smirk!
For much of the year, the polls have seemed to operate in a heightened state. I mean, sure Labor was ahead, but it didn’t seem credible that they were THAT far ahead. Like most people, I had fully expected the polls to narrow by now – which they did, ever so slightly over the winter. But the last few weeks have been awful for the government, and the shenanigans of the last few days has really been the icing on the cake. The state of the two parties is now clearly reflected in the polls – at the moment you’d have to say Labor is in far better shape to assume government that the Coalition is.
The polls no longer seem to have an air of unreality about them – the government is heading for the rocks and there’s probably not much that anyone can do about it.
And he still isn’t going to call the election for another 1.5 weeks at the earliest! Surely this is like Keating circa 1996, waiting until the last possible chance to call the election.
Is a wether a neutered boy or girl sheep? (I know nothing about sheep other than that they somehow become lamb kebabs)
Lucus [384]:
I suspect Crosby Textor in focus groups have identified that Howard’s age is now seen as a problem. So to neutralise this competing message they have instructed Howard’s senior ministers to start emphasising his vitality.
Lib spin doctors will also try to ramp up the media opps of Howard out walking in the morning in his rah rah (translation for non NSW, QLDers; rugby union, the game of private schoolboys north of the Murray) tracksuit.
Re the day’s events…
I’m with Hugo here. I think today is a great result for Labor. It looks like the Rodent will now face the people for his day of reckoning.
Scorpio
Have you got a link for that Downer quote?
The June Crosby Textor stuff was actually worse for the Coalition than the newspoll stuff.It’s partly the way they measure undecideds (lower in CT), and their issue measurements (and the more intensive questioning involved) lead me to believe that the CT stuff is slightly more accurate than the standard pollsters, and was showing a poorer Coalition standing in both June and earlier periods than the likes of Newspoll and Galaxy.This is also reflected in the “soft voter” measurements of CT being 5% each for the ALP and Coalition in June compared to some of the more courageous methods that are used as a proxy for softness by the major pollsters.
If you’ve got a link for that, I’d be eternally grateful.
So I now think Labor will start really focusing on their policies. I would like them to do a big vote winner one within the week (they might have to wait until after parliament so the ‘communications fund’ thing doesn’t happen again).
Also, I think they will also need to focus on their 10 yr statergy, not as Howard said last night ‘for the next 3 years’.
I think that was from tonight’s 7:30 Report. The transcript should eventually appear here:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2030224.htm
#424 Adam, as a former employee of the Big Merino in Goulburn, I am happy to inform you that a wether was formerly, to use your scientific term, a boy sheep.
If I was Rudd I would actually hold off announcing much for a couple of days, because the things he announces, like increasing benefits for veterans ( http://www.alp.org.au/media/0907/msloova100.php )keeps getting swamped by Liberal Party navel gazing.
I think he should cut the GST to 5% for first home buyers. Currently the first home owners rebate is basically designed to off-set the GST, why not cut the GST as well, so it means real dollars towards the house, rather than giving back what was already taken.
Possum Comitatus Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 9:53 pm
Scorpio
Have you got a link for that Downer quote?
I got it off Bolts Blog.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/downer_turnbull_give_up_on_howard_report/
Apparently Bolt also replies to a commenyer who questioned his sources for his Post and he inserted a reply that he had confirmed the story with both Downer and Turnbull’s Offices.
All this talk about Eden Monaro..
how can anyone reasonably call a seat “blue Ribbon’ if it is a bellwether seat that changes hands every time a government changes
It sounds a bit too unstable to be qualify for “Blue Ribbon”
Perhpas we need a new bellwether?
eg one of those ultra marginals in South Australia
Thanks Scorpio, you’re a real champ
Forget about recording polling numbers.
What of record pollbludgering numbers?
Is this the longest thread in a single day? Ever?
My tuppence worth is that whilst the Liberals are panicked, there is no-one to step up to the plate. No-one clearly likely to attract significantly more votes than Howard; and more importantly no-one who wants to be PM for a month then play the Beazley role for 1-2 terms only to hand over to someone like Turnbull…
Howard is in real trouble. The rats are nervous, ready to jump ship at any reasonable threat now.
John Valder has called for Howard to step down and I think somewhere Tony Staley has said the same thing.
ELEANOR HALL: Well, one former federal president of the Liberal Party, who was a key player in the party’s leadership battles of the 1980s, has warned that if John Howard doesn’t go now, he risks destroying the party.
John Valder was federal president in the mid 1980s, when he was one of John Howard’s closest confidantes, but since then he’s become disaffected with the Prime Minister and even helped campaign against him at the last election.
Mr Valder spoke to me just before we came on air about the current leadership tensions.
ELEANOR HALL: John Valder, you were in the midst of another leadership crisis with John Howard 20 years ago, what’s your response to the current wranglings in the leadership of the Liberal Party?
JOHN VALDER: Well, I would be in the camp now, and it’s the very opposite to what I was 20 years ago, when I was very firmly in Howard’s camp, much to the distaste of Andrew Peacock. But today I would certainly be in the camp saying that Howard should go.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2029862.htm
But the question on everyone’s lips is where’s federal Liberal Party president Chris McDiven?
There are some who say this is precisely why Mr Howard put her in this position.
Previous leaders of the party like Tony Staley or Ron Walker would certainly have been players at this stage and would have stepped in for the good of the party. But that is not what’s happening at the moment and people are asking where Ms McDiven is.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2030155.htm
Talk of ‘blue ribbon’ seats reminds me of Colin Hughes telling me: ” blue ribbon is a type of ice cream. the original term is ‘blue ribband’ ” I thought he was just stirring till I looked it up in an historical dictionary… ‘Ribbon’ was an American slip of the tongue, by analogy with ribbons for first prize at agricultural shows.
I was watching this site and two other blogs all day today (Bolt and Price)..
Its interesting to note the two different styles.
Bolt has totally nailed his colours to the mast on his “its over” theme and, in my view, will be praying for a good result to maintain his credibility as a conservative journalist. His record over the last few years has been one of good articualtion of balanced conservative views, but his position must be in serious question now.
On the other hand, Matt Price sounded like the more seasoned (and impartial) commentator to my mind. Far more the reporter of facts, rather than a player on the field
Learing a lot today
Adam. A wether is a male sheep that has been castrated. A speyed ewe does not take on a different title for some reason.
{Is this the longest thread in a single day? Ever?}
It’s going well. Matt Price is running at 446 at the moment, so not too far behind.
does anyone bother spaying ewes? as opposed to caponisation.
Today was close to a mortal blow for the coalition’s chances at the next election.
The coalition have seriously called into question the issue of leadership – I note the CT analysis had that as a coalition strength, and now the electorate won’t know what they’re really voting for come the election.
They have seriously damaged their “team” strength – also a strength according to the CT analysis, albeit under the radar, and they have been trying to build it for weeks.
Add to that Possum’s analysis of the actual impact of rate changes and the coalition is left with almost no political leverage with the electorate.
More generally, my view is that you don’t see the type of theatrics we’ve had today unless thing are really, really serious. If it wasn’t this close to an election it would almost certainly end in a leadership change. This is poison for the coalition. The electorate will no longer be certain what they’re voting for if they vote liberal on election day, and the ALP will exploit this to the fullest.
In additon, the coalition has spent the past week, and particularly today, acting like a party ready to eat itself. Even if the ALP and press don’t continue to nag at this (and they will), the electorate will have noticed.
I think it will actually take several days for the implications of today to fully filter through the parties, press and electorate. When it does, the atmosphere for the coalition will be only slightly less ugly than it was today.
Valder told Howard to go 3 or 4 weeks ago in an article published in the Canberra Times.
Election betting suspended over the ledadership crisis, but a lot of money has backed Labor in the last few days.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/bookies-halt-poll-betting/2007/09/11/1189276691029.html
“Bellwether” is discussed on Wp at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellweather
There is some interesting trivia about the accuracy of B. status in the US. Can we build up some data on the B. federal divisions eg.
Parramatta
Eden-Monaro
Are there any others?
Tomorrow’s QT should be fun, as the Health Minister will have a few questions to answer: http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Problems-found-with-flu-drug-stockplie/2007/09/11/1189276722271.html
All this sheep talk, where’s kiwipundit?
Surely this will poll him away from ewetube (boom tish)
Barbara @ #440. I dont think either are done to any extent with sheep. Rams are castrated because of the beneficial effect it has on both wool production and meat quality as well as the advantages in husbandry. None of these things really apply to ewes.
Bolt and Matt Price coming up on Lateline. Bolt’s commenters have turned on him in a big way for speaking against Dear Leader…
Eden Monaro and Macarthur are the two generally quoted as Bell Wether sears with the former given the most prominence.
explosive details in tomorrows oz
so says matt price on lateline
It’s bad for the government when it’s own gazette is going to be lising ‘explosive details’. I cant wait.
Bolt is turning positively feral against the Man-o-Steelo.
Matt Price suggesting some juicy detail in tomorrow’s Oz.
Price is saying the GG will report tomorrow that the majority of cabinet doesn’t want Howard and have told him so. Dunno what time they put the next day’s stories online – they’re not there yet.
Anthony usually about 1am
Is it possible that postponing the election is the circuit-breaker the liberals have been holding out for?
Is it possible that defying his party, the polls, the media and common sense constitute howard’s vision for the future? that stubborn defiance alone has become the essence of leadership?
Is it possible that “heading in the right direction” is now a synonym for political self-destruction?
Is it possible that howard has now also destroyed (any remaining hopes for) costello?….forever?
So Downer and Turnbull make their mind and tap the Prime Minister on the shoulder with perhaps one month to an election… and then decide that he is the Coalitions’ best bet…
Real thinkers these people… So why do it?
and for them to actually consider someone like Costello whose poll results are far worse than Howard..
Real thinkers these people…
hehehe.. Bolt calling Johnny a dork and loser, and being quite scathing about Costello’s lack of cojones. I wonder if his and Kroger’s phones are running hot or if they will be the new Lib pariahs.
Hugo, great link.
Well worth a read by anyone interested in how the betting market is not only following the polls , but also the media commentary.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they are monitoring the Blog sites also. The comments as far as I can determine are overwhelmingly against Howard and the Libs.;
Bolt: “Costello is a very long shot. But he’s a long shot versus almost a no-shot”. Wow. He’s really left the reservation. He also doesn’t believe that Costello has the cojones to actually step up tomorrow. I’d agree with the latter point – he makes Beazley look like the King of Ticker by comparison.
They should interview Keating on lateline tonight
I might have been somewhat influenced by Possum’s thoughtful analysis, but I did notice that Downer managed to hit all of the topics that are still “owned” by the government.
This is depressing in that I really don’t think the Coalition being obliterated is good for our country in the medium to long term.
So one month to an election Downer and Turnbull decide to tap Johhnie on the shoulder and ask him to go, and then decide that Howard is the Governments’ best bet… Real thinkers these people…
and to actually think that Costello would be a better alternative when his poll results are worse than Howard… Real thinkers these people…
Desperate politics from people breathing for air…
The energetic Howard. Good, to work on one’s fitness.
Don’t want to make age an issue. But JH insists, draws one’s attention! The flappy trackies. The Oz colours. The paradox.
Alexander has not shown up in costume..since.
Until Costello publicly endorses Howard to lead at the election, and publicly declares his full support, I would not assume that the fat lady has sung. I suspect they’re all really unsure what to do, and, quite understandably, can’t work out who’d be the best leader to improve their vote. Howard, meanwhile, has abandoned his claim to lead for “as long as the party wants me”. Could that statement have been a lie? He has decided to apply some extra araldite.
Andrew A… I tend to agree what would be best is for a major party to be in government with the independents having the balance of power… that way we get some checks and balances…
In Victoria there are some checks and balances with a upper house but we have a government screaming its’ head off when the Greens don’t agree with it. So much for democracy.
If Howard gets pushed out for Costello, don’t be surprised if he becomes bitter and turns on the party. When he was Opposition Leader and got rolled he was scathing of those who had not supported him.
Well I stand corrected bmwofoz – and I’m very sorry for writing a couple of posts in your name and I’m very sorry for accusing you of not being you! But… in my defence … it just seemed strange, the comment going so anti-leftwing all of a sudden. But nevermind, I was in error and I apologise! I hope we can put this unfortunate incident behind us!
What a bizaar day.
1. Howard is wounded but nobody has touched him.
2. We have a challenge without a challenger.
3. Downer mobilises the forces for change but now leads the defence for the incumbent.
What is going on?
As for Newspoll next week I think we should refer to the last example of a major party imploding. Look at late 2004 when Latham imploded. The ALP primary vote collapsed to 33%.
All this on the cusp of an election that the PM, in hindsight, should have already announced. Amazing!
Andrew A – if the coalition lose the federal election, their talent will go to the States and you’ll see some changes at that level sooner or later. The liberals are nowhere near a spent force.
Be interesting to see the GG tomorrow. I suspect it’s pre-today information, which makes it painful but not “new” in the current climate. JWH has made it clear that it will take welding equipment to cut him loose of the PMship and its hard to see the party room seeing that as the best option, given the uncertain benefits of a change of leaders at this stage. However, it will damage them yet further.
I wonder if Bolt has bought a “Kev 07″ t-shirt?
Red Wombat.. Lateline continues to have on dingbats and conservative speaking drones… and Matt Price, Mark Latham in his book summed him up superbly… an attention seeker big head, who thinks he knows something… no just another pretenious journalist with a big ego and stupid crappy comments… as soon as i heard these dills were on off went the TV… Feel sorry for Tony Jones… All those years as a journalist and you get to interview dills…
Red Wombat your right Keating should have been on at least something of value would have been said…
If this is true then Howard will be gone before the election. You just can’t have a leader in charge without the support of cabinet.
Costello is a loser! He should either challenge, or announce “I will not accept the leadership”. Costello is killing the government.
Hell, if this gets reasonable media coverage and is picked up by Labor, then Howard is even more trouble.
ELEANOR HALL: The unpopularity of WorkChoices has been one of the political difficulties dogging Prime Minister Howard, though business groups insist it’s a key economic reform.
Now, though, one of the world’s leading labour market economists has attacked WorkChoices as an outmoded policy fighting a war already won.
Professor Richard Freeman of Harvard University is visiting Australia this week, and he spoke a short time ago to Economics Correspondent Stephen Long.
RICHARD FREEMAN: WorkChoices is a law that is based on thinking from 20-odd years ago that has proven not to be valid. Rather than deregulating the labour market and freeing workers and firms and unions to make more and better agreements, it’s actually re-regulated it in a way that is completely unfair to collective interests of workers.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2029927.htm
Costello should resign unless he does one of two things by lunch time tomorrow:
A} Annonounces he will not accept the leadership
B} Challenges
He is murdering his own party otherwise.
Is Wilson Tuckey still planning to put any motions to the Lib party room meeting tomorrow?
Maybe they’ll all vote no confidence in themselves.
Exactly! It is one thing for Costello to be gutless and hurt his own leadership ambitions, but now he is hurting his entire party and the government.
Perhaps Costello WILL resign, and announce he won’t contest the next election. They’ll then have to find another Treasurer, and a new candidate to save the seat of Higgins. That’s all fantasy though. To resign, he’d have to break his vow of silence.
Heffernan will be trying to sure up support for Howard.
[To resign, he'd have to break his vow of silence].
No he would not. He could do what Australian cricketer Damien Martyn did – resign by email.
(Assuming that Costello doesn’t challenge) I could see Howard demanding that Costello publically support him as part of the partyroom meeting tomorrow. As others have pointed out, he really has to do it to stop the bleeding. Unfortunately I think that if he does, he’s killing his chance of ever being PM, even for a couple of months.
On the other hand, maybe Costello just doesn’t care any more. Howard clearly doesn’t care about the overall health of the Liberals if it might conflict with his personal political health – why should Costello be any different?
All online betting agencies have now removed Bennalong from their sites pending resolution of the leadership issue.
This may take days.
paul k @ 467
“If Howard gets pushed out for Costello, don’t be surprised if he becomes bitter and turns on the party.”
Howard seems to be prepared to throw everything at staying in power. Hard to say what he would do if it all fails – maybe your suggestion is the threat that will keep him in power.
I’ve was surprised today at how hard in fought to be tied to trainlines.
He must realise he has lost. Does he think an election defeat is more honorable than being knifed by your party.
Dunno – maybe he is not quite on planet earth now.
There has never been a more important Newspoll for Howard than next Tuesday. Anything less than 56-44 and, with the conspirators together for Parliament all next week, he could well be gone.
Has Mr Rudd got the Libs so spooked that they are prepared to bring their own party to the verge of collapse and leave it with zero credibility.?
As an outsider looking in it seems amazing to watch these people who have been in power for so long behave like this.I have no doubt that whatever follows after this that the government is finished.
If there is a vote on rhe leadership tomorrow,the loser of Costello or Howard has to resign,because in my eyes if the loser stays the tension between them will still be there.They will try to destabilise each other.They are already doing it with the leaked Crosby Textor Report.Its nasty politics at ten paces and its no holds barred.
The ALP must be rubbing theur hands with glee with this happening so close to the election.
He could do a Damien O’Connor (NZ Corrections Minister), and try to resign by text message. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10462890
The Lying Rodent is finally going to pay for all his untruths.
His final lie is “I will stay on as long as it is in the best interests of my party.”
He could not even be honest to his own colleagues!!
Yeah Sondeo. The Liberals (or at least Howard-Costello) are where no party wants to be this close to an Election – hating each other more than their opponents. I know the tactic from Labor is don’t say anything and let the Liberals sink, however I’d be out there in the next couple of days delivering the old chestnut: “If you can’t govern yourselves, you can’t govern the Country”.
Possum should have kept quiet and let them walk over the cliff. ;]
There would be no personal gain at all for Costello to take over the leadership except to make a concession speech on election eve, then to resign for a Mcbank job.
He wouldn’t have to much love for his party members either since they are the ones that have kept him out for so long. I am sure Costello doesn’t want the job now and he will have to be coerced into taking it.
As good as he performs in parliament outside in front of the camera he has proved to be fairly poor, so far. He may well be a worse option. AND who would be his Treasurer? None have any economic credibility. It has always been Howard and Costello – their strength and the ‘owners’ of their ’success’. The broken pair breaks everything.
The Rudd team I think will for once seem clearly superior!
Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2030328.htm?section=justin
This is madness by the Coalition. My bellwether is a middle-aged male colleague who lives in the Mitchell electorate. He’s not a rusted-on Lib voter by any means (although it’s doubtful he’s ever voted for anyone but the dreaded Alan Cadman in his life) because he’s not too up on current affairs or even how the parliamentary system works. I tried to get him to take a look at the new Liberal candidate, Alex Hawke, and his dastardly role in the re-election of Iemma, which my colleague thought outrageous (Iemma’s re-election, not Hawke’s machinations), but he wasn’t interested in the slightest. However, when I mentioned to him this morning that Downer (whom he agrees is a fool) and Turnbull (about whom he has no opinion whatsoever) were thinking of giving Johnny the tap, he was gobsmacked. I honestly believe that if Howard is forced out, my colleague would vote Rudd, not because he likes him or Labor, but because he would go along with everyone else and back a winner. My other bellwether is the hugely pregnant Lebanese lady who works part-time in the cafe next door (I don’t know what electorate she’s from but I suspect it is as red as mine). She said to me recently that she and her family are traditional Labor voters but that she thought Howard was not given the credit he deserved and I got the impression she might vote for him out of sympathy and respect. If he’s dumped, so are the rest of them. That won’t matter in either of the electorates, as one is solidly blue and (I think) the other red, but it will matter an enormous amount in some of the swinging seats, particularly in western Sydney but far more importantly in suburban Brisbane, where I grew up and know well. If Howard goes, the game’s up. And I don’t want that, as my dearest heart’s desire is to see Johnny’s concession speech and him relegated to the dustcovers of history. All of the speculation is fascinating for we political tarts but out there in suburbia the only thing that will matter is that if Howard goes, the lot of them are stuffed.
Frank, Rudd announced the same thing on Monday. It’s a tit-for-tat policy so it’s not a vote winner. In fact the government has dragged its feet on the issue, it might mean some will turn from him.
Greg,
I’ve been impressed with how the ALP has responded and, in this case, not responded to events. A far more proffesional effort than the Latham campain.
No doubt they are waiting for the right moment .. but, for the next day or so, silence, catch up on a bit of reading, tidy the desk is by far the best option.
Once the libs have locked into one choice or another – let the floodgates open.
Surely the leaking of the Crosby / Textor material to Crikey was from the non-Howard / Costello alliance. Downer explained today they spent all of last week sounding out opinions on Howard’s leadership, it is too much of a coincidence that the C / T material came out last week.
If it is true that only half of the cabinet support Howard that means, Howard is gone. Maybe not tomorrow, but but he won’t stay leader before th election.
Howard just wants them to make a formal challenge so he can write in his memoirs “I was preparing for the election, but then disunity and a lack of loyalty by the actions of …. and …. ended my chances of winning another term.”
Howard wants to be rememberd as the good guy, and wants everyone else to be considered the bad guy that stopped him from winning.
This is wonderful, Howard’s stuborness is stopping a smooth transition to Costello. Costello’s desire not to cut down Howard means he can’t challenge, the fact he is gutless stops him from doing it as well. Either way they are dooming the government.
I’m wondering if tomorrow will see one or the other resign. You’ve got to ask yourself if Costello doesn’t get the leadership now… why stay? A no show in Higgins would certainly crush Howard and create mayhem. No Costello = no Howard.
He certainly looked disinterested today. And he did promise to destroy him.
Scorpio
Work Choices is based on thinking from 1925, from the writings of William Hutt, a right wing academic, who wrote from the isolation of South Africa.
Rafe Champion presented a paper to the HR Nicholls Society, Costello’s and Minchins think tank.
Champion basically said that we will not have a labour market regime that is free until Hutt’s writings are accepted as gospel.
Champion goes on to say that Hutt exposed the “myth” of the workers and unions struggle to get decent wages and safe conditions and freedom of association during the industrial revolution of the 1800’s.
Hutt says that the unions impeded the progress of the labour market and that improvements in wages and working conditions came about through benevolent employers recognising that they should reward employees with higher wages and benefits and safer working conditions.
This was the central pitch of Work Choices, Howard said that employers would not take advantage of employees and that there would be increased benefits. 18 months later Howard had to amend Work Choices with the “Fairless Test” after a long union campaign when he acknowledged that employees were being taken advantage of and there were not increased benefits. Work Choices is still a one sided system that would get a nod of approval from Hutt for a step in giving all power back to the employer.
Costello and Minchin are champions of the HR Nicholls Society and prefer the fully deregulated employment market that Hutt wrote of.
Howard wanted to take Australia back to the 50’s of the white picket fence, but Costello and Mnchin want to take us back to the early 1800’s in terms of industrial relations and the work force.
Just shows how weak and pathetic the Liberal party is if they have to leak this and that information to undermine their leader and the party just so they can challenge him. These people look like shakey knee kiddies compared to Keating. How on earth can the run a country if they cant fire a badly performed worker?
Interesting to note Bolt’s line repeated on lateline –
He is a player on the field, and wants one outcome in particular, whereas Matt Price is simply reporting and intepreting the facts
I agree with Simon above, Costello won’t have the numbers so
….is he backbenched or out to the private sector?
The only way to close this speculation down is for Peter costello to repeat his line that he will go the next lection as treasurer
Labor beenfit either way
Is there a consensus about what a Costello leadership would do?
I think there are lots of people who are sick of Howard, so they are currently voting Rudd. Would these people come back to the Liberals if Costello was in charge?
Alternatively, I know some people that only vote Liberal because of Howard! These people are more likely to vote for Rudd if Howard goes.
Do these two groups just cancel each other out? Or does anyone think one group is bigger than the other?
For the Liberal’s sake, I hope there isn’t a leadership change until the end of parliament. Costello’s constant YELLING at the top of his voice at the dispatch box is not very prime ministerial.
Exactly, they don’t need to do anything, Rudd should just hang back and let the government destroy itself.
{Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions.}
Will Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 11:43 pm
Frank, Rudd announced the same thing on Monday.
Actually, Rudd first anounced his intention to increase the Veterans Disability Pension on the 6th of May.
Howard playing catch up again pinching Labor policies.
Marktwain @ 490
Do these people know you consider them bellwethers? Not sure I’d be entirely flattered
It is a good point though. Howard is clearly on the nose with the bloggers and other enlightened souls but he has an approval rating higher than his party’s 2pp.
This is a stat I’ve need quite understood. But maybe is just simple the whole govt is going under and Howard is the most popular thing about it. It makes no sense to me but I’m just a single vote.
gecko….interesting concept you’re putting forward.
watching politicians of the liberal persuasion doesn’t do much to lift my opinion of humanity….it is very grubby stuff – deceit, pride, revenge, cowardice, malice…and endlessly self-satisfied too, in the case of his excellency the foreign minister.
Will Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 11:28 pm
He could do a Damien O’Connor (NZ Corrections Minister), and try to resign by text message.
Can’t you imagine, driving by Lake Burley Griffen, typeing his text message, & he accidently runs over some old codger who’s energetically walking around the Lake
I’d give Howard the benefit of the doubt and say that he genuinely believes that switching leaders this close to an election would not be in the best interests of the party (and yes I know that this does coincide with his own self interest).
Can’t see how this will be resolved tomorrow as it’s my understanding that while there is a joint party room meeting tomorrow, there is no separate Liberal party room meeting. Therefore, as I said earlier, next Tuesday (Newspoll day and the Liberal Party room meeting day) will be the end game to all of this.
Simon #498, I’ll report back tomorrow with the results of my planned interrogation of my bellwethers, but I have a suspicion that the traditional Labor lady would go Rudd and the traditional Lib bloke would go Costello or the donkey (is there a difference?) Either way, it’s still movement of the Howard battlers back into the Labor fold, and considering my male colleague is from Mitchell and therefore not important, the difference would be enough for a good Labor sweep in the marginals.
Having spent a while reflecting on the issue, as a Liberal supporter, I have finished the day somewhat depressed, when it started so promisingly. Not that I’ve been overly happy with the party for some time now, but you catch my drift.
I spoke to a chap this morning, who is an actual member of the Liberal Party, and has sources here and there (like everybody else does today!) He said from what he had heard, as of tomorrow either Howard would resign, or there would be a leadership challenge. This was, however, before JH spent the day digging his heels in, and besides, Bolt was saying similar stuff this morning.
The semantics of today has (in my view) confirmed what I have been muttering for the past week or two: the only chance the Coalition has this election – and it is now even slimmer then it was 24 hours ago – is for JH to have a change of heart over the next 12 hours, and resign from parliament, effective immediately. This appears unlikely, courtesy of Downers waffling tonight.
I think in the end, there were two winners today. The first is obviously Labor, who you can bet tonight will be fast forwarding preparations for some solid, populist policy, ready to announce to the public tomorrow afternoon, just after Costello announces (under threat of death) that he is locking in behind Howard. It is what Rudd does best – look ‘prime-ministerial.’
And the second winner is the media, who – after 11 years – finally managed to get past Howard’s armour today and give a few sold prods. And it turns out that in the end, he is just like any other politician. Nobody is invincible, nobody irreplaceable. For once, the media wasn’t late in arriving – the cabinet was left floundering, leaks spouted everywhere, and Matt Price had a field day. And the libs kept digging their hole. Gah.
(isn’t that much more enlightening then talking about bloody train wrecks and rails and so forth? You people need better metaphors)
#496 Kina – let’s be honest here. Labor was just as bad when disposing of their leaders over the past decade, one by one. Think back to barely a year ago, they were in a mess. Even worse two years ago. I recall many Labor members consistently making public comments attacking one leadership candidate or another, generally in a nice, snide tone. Taking Beazley down was a good six-twelve month consolidated effort I imagine.
They’re all the same in the end.
Gippslander
He could do that, but then he would have to explain why he put the car in reverse and repeated the manevuer a few more times.
new article on the australian just went up
majority of cabinet members believed costello was the better horse to back for leadership
Ever since Costello launched that over the top attack on Rudd over meeting Burke, I have thought that Costello has tried to damage Howard at every opportunity.I think Costello has long given up on the leadership and has settled for screwing Howard even if he brings the house down.He certainly knows that the leadership now, is not worth a pinch of nanny goat shit, pay back is a bitch! Howard humiliated him too many times,this is Costello`s last chance for payback. IMHO.
Max (505) – Hell, remember what the Liberals were like for most of the 80s and the first half of the 90s. Brutal leadership battles aren’t the exclusive domain of either side.
I’m not convinced the personal popularity number that Abbott &c are trotting out means much of anything. A couple of months back wasn’t it the preferred PM number that was all-important (apparently). Rudd gets ahead of Howard there, and suddenly it’s the personal popularity number that’s all important.
Max,
Yeah I feel for you mate. I’m a Liberal supporter too yet it only took me about 24 hours (22 of those despairing over the Newspoll!) to work out that the only team that can win this thing for the Libs is Howard and Costello. Neither of them can win on their own – and even together they probably only have a 30% chance. I simply cannot believe that Liberal MPs and Ministers cannot work that out in a similarly short space of time.
Albert F, my bellwethers wouldn’t know a ewe from a ram even if they were eating it, but they are very interesting people nonetheless. I do think we all get a bit carried away by what Tony or Kerry or the stormtroopers from the Government Gazette have to say for themselves. My friends wouldn’t watch the ABC or read anything but the Terror if you paid them, and yet they have reasonably strong opinions on certain things and dislike being sneered at by chardonnay sippers such as myself. I still remember working in a restaurant in Brisbane in 1996 and hearing the Italian-born kitchenhand, who had voted Labor for 30 years, saying it was time for a change. Once she said that – and she was the mother of two newly registered voters – I knew Keating was sunk. I get the same feeling this time.
People wondering about the 50% popularity for howard, it just means they like Howard, but they like Rudd more.
what is a neutered girl sheep called?
Not sure that this piece is what Price was talking about on Lateline – he said it was going to be by Paul Kelly. There’s some interesting meat in there. For instance, the cabinet (with the exception of Howard and Costello) had a meetup last week to talk things over. And coalition MPs are blaming Turnbull for the leaks.
If this is the explosive details promised, then *yawn*. Ok, whatever. Nothing much here, imho. Howard will easily see off Costello. The only question for me is whether Costello will suck it down and come out smiling and supporting Howard after the meeting. Maybe he can trade his support for a dinner at Kirribilli.
Adam, why would you neuter a girl?
i have no idea – my knowledge of agricultural practices is fairly limited.
Marktwain Says:
September 12th, 2007 at 12:17 am
Adam, why would you neuter a girl?
I can see you don’t have a female dog (I don’t say Bitch out of deference to Bronwyn Bishop)
Maybe the issue was Howard at the begining and all his baggage but then Rudd started winning all the issues which, he has in spades. Maybe Howard has less to do with it now.
People are happy they have found themselves a competent viable alternative and have over the past 8 months become welded on. They are now Rudd/Labor supporters and the Govt has to ‘win’ them back not just change leaders.
A Costello govt is a new govt, newer than the Rudd alternative. They have to start from scratch, produce policies that compete and give a good reason for people to change back. That is going to be hard without their number one salesman.
Changing leaders may just lose those that were hanging on because of Howard. AND lose those that hate Costello. To balance this they hope to win back a heap of those not yet welded on to Rudd. But looking at Labor’s primary for 8 months doesn’t produce much hope in that quarter. AND to be frank Rudd has performed superbly this past 8 months, for a brand new leader!
Some commentators have intimated this scenario has been festering as a probable reality for some months.
If Victoria’s ‘old libs’ were aware of an impending coup then… you’ve got to assume Costello was asked when it was muted, or what would be the point?
Given Howard has had until the eleventh hour to show improvement in the polls… I just can’t see why the Liberals would not give their only gun parliamentary performer a shot at saving them from electoral oblivion. There really doesn’t seem to be any other choice.
Rudd himself has stepped up criticism of Costello’s reformist credentials in what may be a clue to how the ALP see things turning out.
Downer in an interview during APEC said if he wasn’t Foreign Minister he would like to be Treasurer if the chance arose. (What the?) Why even go there… if Costello is ensconced?
I don’t know whether I’m trying to convince myself or if the reality is staring us in the face.
Mr Squiggle; Is this the article that you mentioned. If so, not bad.
ALEXANDER Downer told John Howard last Friday that a majority of cabinet ministers believed the Government’s best election prospects were for a leadership transition to Peter Costello.
In reply, Howard told Downer that he would not be quitting. He said he would not be resigning the prime ministership before the election. It was a firm and visceral reaction, an act of assertion and a calculation by Howard that the Liberal Party lacked the guts or fortitude to depose him. Howard will have to be dynamited out of the job.
Downer’s report to Howard came at the instigation of the Prime Minister. It is a critical point of the story. After the bad Newspoll early last week, Howard asked Downer to sound out cabinet sentiment on his leadership. Downer spoke to cabinet ministers and reported to Howard in Sydney on Friday before the APEC leaders meeting.
It seems Howard was surprised at Downer’s report. While different versions of Downer’s soundings are sure to be spread, the majority sentiment was for a change. One cabinet minister reported yesterday that the sentiment was “overwhelmingly” for change. Another said the mood was for change by a distinct majority. The word from another, on Howard’s side, was that a variety of views were expressed and sentiment was equivocal.
But Howard was never intimidated. Just the reverse. A veteran of power contests, he is prepared to bet his own “will to power” against anybody else in the party. This process has been playing out over the past five days and Howard seems to be winning.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22402810-12250,00.html
Mr Gipps@516, livestock is a far different proposition to companion animals. You’re not supposed to eat the latter, as far as I’m aware.
I think I should clarify what I said before. My male bellwether would seriously consider Costello or a donkey vote, but I have a sneaking suspicion he might go the Ruddster. His wife’s a teacher (albeit private school) for one thing, but I think the bandwagon might be the biggest temptation this time if Howard is out of the game. Next time he would probably revert, but he’d be fifty-fifty this time. Certainly it’s not scientific data that I’m presenting, but as any pollie knows, gut instinct is a goer.
If one thing is for sure, neither of my two bellwethers look at their local candidates. It’s presidential all the way.
I think we need to remember thagt Howard’s supposed electoral invincibility heretofore is largely a myth. Elected with a huge majority in 1996, he came within an inch of defeat in 1998 when he got less than 50% of the 2PV as his “mandate” for the GST. In 2001 he was headed for certain defeat until saved by 9/11 and Tampa. In 2004 he had the good fortune of L*th*m, but still got only 52.5% of the 2PV. For a PM presiding over a boom economy, this was a mediocre record at best. WorkChoices was electoral poison from Day 1, and even when Beazley was there, Howard was trailing. As soon as Rudd appeared, the punters said, “at last, we can get rid of Howard with confidence that nothing too alarming will follow,” and nothing he has done since December has changed that. This is of course exactly the same thing that happened in reverse when Howard replaced Downer in 1995, so he shouldn’t be too surprised.
Grattan:
Mr Howard ordered a regular separate meeting of the Liberal Party to be held this morning after media and MPs expressed surprise when only a Coalition meeting was planned.
The Liberal meeting gives the chance for anyone to move for a leadership spill, provided they get a seconder. But backbencher Wilson Tuckey, an outspoken critic of Mr Howard, said last night he would not do so.
That Will Hutt was some piece http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Harold_Hutt – he even tried to make out that Apartheid was a trade union plot.
What was surprising was the number of ministers who refused to say if they supported Howard when interviewed on TV, slight panic may be setting in.
As to when the election will be called, there will be quite a few upset people in Sydney, the equine flu claims more.
“Sydney’s popular Melbourne Cup meeting at Royal Randwick has effectively been cancelled due to the equine influenza outbreak, Racing NSW chief executive Peter V’Landys says.
The annual meeting usually attracts 50,000 racegoers who spend millions of dollars at the traditional Cup day knees-up.”
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/randwicks-melbourne-cup-day-off/2007/09/11/1189276709157.html
And it looks like we will have a second rate Melbourne Cup day meet, IF it does go ahead at all.
“The majority of NSW and Queensland trainers have given up all hope of participating in this year’s Melbourne spring carnival with only a handful paying up for the feature races.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=417641
May influence election timing, but as others have pointed out each weekend is starting to have its own negatatives now.
“His critics were accusing him [Turnbull] of hoping Mr Costello would take the leadership, lose the election and leave him to contest a subsequent ballot.”
I suspect Turnbulll’s name is going to be mud for a while but good to see he has learnt how to be a polly.
I’m waiting to see how Costello responds to all this. He hasn’t seemed an enthusiastic campaigner so far this year. Maybe a few nasty barbs closer to election day just ensure Howard gets trashed and he moves off to mcbank.
The white South African unions were indeed strong supporters of apartheid. The South African Labour Party’s slogan was “workers of the world unite for a white South Africa.” Many of them were of course transplanted Australians who went to the Rand gold rushes, and took White Australia with them.
My favourite piece of political dialogue at the moment:
Source: Peter Hartcher, SMH 12/9/07
495
Arbie Jay
I suspect there has always been a little tension between John Howard’s goals and the rest of the Liberal Party.
My, perhaps unfair, view of John Howard’s agenda is to do everything Malcolm Fraser wouldn’t let him:
* Refugee Rights: wriggle out of
* Progressive Taxation: considerably flattened
* Federalism: whacked about a bit
* Unions: de-legitimised (Malcolm understood they had a role in liberal democracy even though they annoyed him)
* Indigenous Land Rights: whittled away at
* Corporate Accountability: Oh well, bottom of the harbour bobbed up and the AWB didn’t stay under the carpet, so there’s still work to do.
* Militarism: Its a fun duty rather than a regrettable necessity
So that leaves John Howard’s subconscious remaining agenda as:
* Create more loopholes for corporate taxation
* Finish off disenfranchising Aboriginals by subterfuge
* Get rid of fairness tests and such, once re-elected (non-core)
* Actually make unions illegal as a restrictive trade practice
* Suck up state’s water and land, education and health responsibilities
* Increase GST and reduce highest marginal tax rate
* Make all of Australia a migration exclusion zone.
* Stay in Iraq once everyone else has left.
* Find a racist pariah nation to trade with or else become one
* Celebrate as Prime Minister when Malcolm Fraser dies and dance on his grave.
No wonder he appears to be running out of puff and imagination.
Spinning those goals as “looking after the nations interests” gets harder and harder.
Hmmm, after that rant I realise I’ve never really warmed to the man!
I’d have found it easier if he retired to a Bungalow at 55 sipping tea. Eccentric lovable codger with wacky ideas… OK, but PM?
They are better off finishing Howard off. Like Michelle Grattan suggests Howard has been “winged” and the best thing that can be done now is to put him out of his misery. How the government could ever let it get to this is beyond me. The whole episode highlights why Howard has been able to run rings around these jokers for years. They couldn’t even get his political execution right in the end.
May of course all be stage managed to show that Howard is a strong leader and it will all be resolved with libs firmly behind Howard.
Focuses attention back on the libs which Crosby Textor said needs to be done, then they can start releasing policies, modifying Work Choices and present themselves as a new invigorated government with a vision and plan for the future.
The SMH story sounds better, only because it’s painting JWH has the leader to dampen the damage. JWH won’t win them the election, but neither would Costello. JWH is stubborn and won’t move, Costello is gutless so we have an impasse, that will only be solved by going to the election and perhaps hope the a miracle they somehow hold on to power. Matt Price sounded like he has something juicy, and in the end the GG didn’t provide much.
The Liberal backbench must be just about ready to lynch Costello by now. Next week’s partyroom meeting could get very ugly.
If they think they are going to lose, then sticking with Howard is probably a good decision.
If they are actually pursuing a firewall strategy as Possum suggests, then Howard is probably the leader to aid that strategy.
Here I was hoping that Costello would become leader resulting a landslide so big that the Left faction of the ALP became the opposition.
RB, they could “focus attention” on themselves by comitting mass hara-kiri on the steps of Parly House, but I doubt it would do them much good. Come to think of it, that’s just about what they did today. And they have another whole week and a half of this before they can escape back to their electorates!
comitting? committing? commiting? yikes
Disaster
A lot of Howard’s agenda is below the surface.
Work Choices already allows the banning of unions in workplaces where requested, the Exclusive Brethren obtained this dispensation from Howard to not allow unions into the workplace in their businesses. A workplace does not have to accept a collective agreement if the employer does not want one.
As for militarism, Work Choices, housing affordability and Howards $100,000 plus university degrees are a type of economic conscription that operates in the USA where the young are pushed into the armed services as the only way of getting a better life.
Bottom of the harbour tax schemes flourished under Howard when he was treasurer in Frasers government but his welfare for the rich outdoes that. His massive tax subsidies to investors place home ownership out of reach of the ordinary home owner but not investors. His changes to super means people with an income of $200,000 a year can claim the health benefits card.
His take over of the OH&S laws from the states is also a worry as he has always stated he favours as little regulation on business as possible, we will see a winding backof the OH&S laws as he did with Work Choices.
As for water, Howard and Turnball refused to help fund QLD and Victoria in their pipelines as the resources would remain in government ownership.
The ACCC is a complete joke, part of Howard deregulation approach.
If he is re-elected he will still have a senate majority and the ability to do what he wants.
Grattan ends her column with this:
“Pro-Costello sources said last night that even if Mr Howard succeeded in resisting pressure to stand down this week, the issue would not go away.”
Surely that means The Duchess of Sturt is working on the numbers for Costello. They just want parliament to rap up so Costello doesn’t appear on TV in the guise of the lunatic P.M. at the dispatch box.
No, it just makes him look stubborn, and the rest of them look gutless. It’s a lose-lose no matter how rose-coloured the glasses are.
Adam
It has focused attention back on Howard and the liberal party and away from the disaster of APEC.
It has also taken the focus off Rudd and his policy announcements.
There is the old saying that any publicity is good publicity and maybe people will be watching the next few days to see what happens with Howard giving him the media attention and not labor.
Can’t agree Arbie. The last thing a government or opposition wants to be doing with a maximum 2 months left before an election is fighting amongst themselves. Voters turn off, and don’t come back.
Pistol pete shooting blanks.
“Senior Liberals say Mr Costello personally rang Cabinet ministers, including Howard loyalists, telling them he wanted the job but the PM would have to hand him leadership without a challenge.”
“According to one source, Mr Howard told Mr Downer that his detractors would have to “blast me out”, echoing the words he used in September, 1988 when he was being challenged as Opposition Leader. ”
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22403488-661,00.html
I agreee with Dario, voters want a plan for the future they don’t want to hear about the navel gazing of the Liberal Party.
This Herald Sun article directly implies that Costello is behind it. He wants the P.M. to hand over, he is TOO GUTLESS to challenge! I guess he is worried that a challenge at this late stage will just doom the government.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22403488-661,00.html
“For days, Mr Costello has pursued a behind-the-scenes strategy designed to force Cabinet ministers to tap Mr Howard on the shoulder.
Key Costello supporters were instructed to keep quiet because the Treasurer wanted to avoid open warfare in the party room.
Senior Liberals say Mr Costello personally rang Cabinet ministers, including Howard loyalists, telling them he wanted the job but the PM would have to hand him leadership without a challenge.
There would be no bloody spill, Mr Costello said”
Dario
Maybe you and Adam are right, that would mean Howard is acting in his own interests only and stuff everyone else including his so-called beloved liberal party.
I think what Costello was thinking of Hayden and Hawke, didn’t Hayden step down in favour of Hawke once the election was called, allowing a bloodless and united transition.
Costello is right in that respect, it would have to be done in the style of the Hayden/ Hawke handover for it to be successful.
Perhaps Costello should have offered Howard the governor-general job ala Hayden. That way Howard gets to keep the waterside mansion and views, would just have to move to Admiralty House, Jannette would be happy.
Max (#506) just wrote the best suicide note I’ve ever read.
490 Frank
‘Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions’
Immediately endorsed by Kevin Rudd.
Apologies. Can’t immediately locate it, but the poster who suggested that ‘they’ are reading the blogs.
I’ll bet they are.
I sent a blog a couple of weeks ago to the GG advising them of my findings after surveying, on my own methodology, a very fair basis, six of their politically oriented forums.
Suggested they must be aghast and possibly may account for the toning down of anti Labor sentiment.
‘Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions’
Immediately endorsed by Kevin Rudd.
Rudd announce this on Monday.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22391400-5005961,00.html
Does any one know what time the Lib party room meeting is on today?
I think Howard will win any challenage. costello just hasn’t the ticker to contest a bloody spill. Howard’s legacy : the destruction of Liberalism in the Liberal Party and the Party itself. What a selfish b*stard.
Alright, I get it now.
Here is what I think has happened.
Costello has been working in the background sounding out ministers about changing leadership and tapping Howard on the shoulder tellng him that he has lost support. This involves the gutless move of asking Howard to step down rather than actually go to the caucus, all this needs to be kept quiet though.
Malcolm Turnbull (who has leadership aspirations) gets wind of this and thinks to himself:
a) Howard, small chance of winning, hates Costello, another year or two and Turnbull is a chance to get leadership.
b) Costello, small chance of winning, but if he does goodbye leadership ambitions.
Best result for Turnbull, Howard.
Turnbull leaks information about the party room moves to the media, Howard digs in and Costello predictably gets wobbly knees. Even if Costello does challenge the damage to the party would ensure a Costello loss.
Only trouble with this theory is that Turnbull only holds a small margin in Wentworth and is a chance to lose his seat. But I suppose it is going to be a struggle for him either way and even if he does lose his ambitions and money can get him a blue ribbon liberal seat after the defeat because no doubt there will be a few ministers in safe seats who will retire after an election defeat not wanting to spend their final years in opposition. By-election a few months after the election and Malcolm is back.
SJP,
No idea BUT the House of Reps daily schedule says that committee events can be monitored at http://www.aph.gov.au/house/liveminutes. I don’t know that committee events would include the party caucus meeting but it is worth a try? ;-D
Grattan reported 9.30am for the Liberal meeting, separate to a Coalition one.
Sorry Julie, you won’t get a live feed of the liberal party meeting straight from parliament.
There will be a joint party debrief to journos later in the morning. Sure to be interesting as to the spin on what Howard told the troops.
As for the agriculturally minded, a ewe is a ewe is a ewe – neutered or not!
According to Radio National, Liberal Party private polling shows them doing much better than the published polls, leading in marginal seats & poised to win Bendigo off Labor. Any foundation to this?
Maybe someone from Bendigo could tell us if the Labor member there is in serious electoral trouble?
“”"TREASURER Peter Costello had made it clear he supported the current Liberal team for the federal election, Health Minister Tony Abbott said today.
And the senior cabinet members who met last week to consider the leadership question have put aside any doubts and anxieties they may have had about Prime Minister John Howard, he said.
“Peter has made it absolutely crystal clear that he supports the team,” Mr Abbott told Channel 9.”"”
Interesting that – Downer said something similar last night on the 7.30 Report. The only person who’s not saying that Costello supports Howard is… Costello.
“554
Howard Hater Says:
September 12th, 2007 at 8:23 am
According to Radio National, Liberal Party private polling shows them doing much better than the published polls, leading in marginal seats & poised to win Bendigo off Labor. Any foundation to this?
Maybe someone from Bendigo could tell us if the Labor member there is in serious electoral trouble?”
All parties “leak” information to say they are doing better than the polls are suggesting.If they were doing better we would not be having this leadership spat at the present.The Coalition is in deep trouble and they know it.They are going to say and do anything to stop the rout !
HH,
Sounds to as though Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf is up to his old tricks.
I know the seat of Bendigo well and used to live in it. I have mentioned a few times on this blog that it’s worth keeping an eye on. Water is a huge issue there, and Malcolm Turnbull has visited the electorate a few times to bag the Victorian Government. It’s always been pretty marginal, and has a tradition of going against the national trend. The Libs can win it with a one per cent swing.
The sitting Labor member, Steve Gibbons, is nothing to write home about. But the Libs have had trouble finding candidates there and there’s not a great sense of election campaigning in the seat yet. The Bendigo Advertiser did a poll which showed Labor would hold the seat. I think they’re planning another poll soon.
I would think the Libs will be putting out the word that their private polling is better than the public polling, to gee up the troops. However, the Crosby Textor report suggests the opposite. I never believe leaks of “private polling” unless documentary evidence is provided, as in the case of C/T.
“According to Radio National, Liberal Party private polling shows them doing much better than the published polls, leading in marginal seats & poised to win Bendigo off Labor. Any foundation to this?”
… hence why they’re running around like headless chooks?
It appears to be a blatant attempt to settle everybody down, but I think it’s a bit late for that.
Thanks Antonio!
More desperate spin from the rodent to shore up his position!
549 ruawake says re Govt to increase Veterans’ Pensions
‘Rudd announce this on Monday’
More of Howard’s me too ism, then??
Was it only Hewson who kited Bendigo whilst being interviewed on RN Breakfast ( http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/default.htm )
The interview transcript isn’t up yet but I suppose it be later. He was of the opinion that Howard should hang on as long as possible before calling the election – perhaps to December after a long campaign. So I’m off to the bookies to put the house on the early dates.
Wasn’t there a poll conducted fairly recently in Bendigo that showed Labor up 6% (or something like that)?
It was one of the earlier postings on this site.
Speaking of stories on RN Breakfast it was good to hear that campaign to eradicate feral aninals on Macq. Is.
That this is happening is down to Turnbull’s credit as previous Federal ministers fiddled around whilst Tasmania cried poor.
NZ doesn’t seem to have these problems having had great success with their programs – especially on the Campbell and Auckland Is.
Centrebet has take ndown all election betting markets ahead of the party room meeting.
Abbott is now saying Costello fully supports the current team. Why couldn’t Costello do that himself? http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22404853-29277,00.html
People will want to know the Libs succession plan for when Howard finally leaves, and if Costello is being gutless then they will probably not trust him to become the next PM.
Didn’t Downer let it slip in an interview that internal polling was WORSE than the polls? I am sure he did.
I don’t think it credible that there be a consistent 57/43 and have marginals in govts favour. Why would Rudd moving some campaigning into the safer Liberal seats?
Downer did let it ’slip’ but that was to scare the voters.
Even in huge swings, there can be seats that go against the flow, so even if there is a inch of truth about Bendigo then Labor will be needing to do something about it.
I’ve heard the Liberals polling that shows a landslide on Christmas Island.
With the polls pointing to doom for the liberal party an early challenge will at least put Peter Costello on the list of past PMs. It is best for teh liberal party to try and present a new face. With the APEC conference out of the way and John Howard’s last “meet the big boys” a sought of farewell gathering. It could be the right time for a change at the top. It would certainly put a stay on the pressure for the liberal party to go to the poll sooner rather then later. Time will tell. Question if Costello becomes PM will he be one of the shortest term of office PMs?
I don’t think Downer needed to scare the voters anymore than they are [liberal voters], he was being truthful on that account as it was a single a ’slip’within a longer interview and not particularly highlighted by him. He was using the major polls and the fact that their polls were worse as the reason for reviewing the quetion of leadership.
Now if their polls are worse I can only imagine it is worse in the sense of Possum’s analysis – that is there is a major swing in their safer seats.
Changing to Costello is a very large risk as it could just as easily lead to a larger haemorage of votes. With Howard there ‘might’ be a landslide or maybe not. However with Costello their is some chance of a complete obliteration or maybe recovery.
If you are set to lose then it is silly to gamble your life for the sake of a smaller loss.
John Howard is suffering from Mugabe Syndrome.
I find it extraordinary how some leaders are able to browbeat those around them into keeping them in power even when the situation is utterly hopeless.
The ageing Robert Mugabe is destroying his country. He has completely wrecked the economy. He has made hundreds of thousands homeless. He clearly should not be running Zimbambwe and yet the military and police back him fully even though it’s not in their own best interests.
John Howard has not done that but he is clearly now unelectable.
He has been able to intimidate Alexander Downer, Malcolm Turnbull, Peter Costello and all the others who can see that it is in the best interests of the Liberal party to change leaders.
It’s understandable why Peter Costello didn’t want a bloody messy leadership struggle. That would have made it very difficult for him to win.
He needed to be put in the job with John Howard’s clear blessing.
John Howard would then have spoken glowingly about what a great PM Peter would be.
It wouldn’t have helped Peter for John to have immediately moved gloweringly to the backbench. The only way it should have been done is in a peaceful way.
That’s not going to happen.
If John Howard does indeed sit for two weeks then there will be a couple more opinion polls.
If those polls show even worse damage for John Howard and the Coalition’s chances then the leadership issue will inevitably come up again, one last time.
Of course there’s always the chance that some voters will start feeling sorry for the old underdog John Howard and give him a sympathy vote.
On the other hand there will be a number of voters disgusted at the chaos in the party. They will also know that John Howard won’t stay the full term and there could be a messy leadership fight in a year if the Coalition is re-elected.
The Kevin Rudd team will look positively stable and Kevin Rudd look like the safe alternative.
A number of soft Liberal voters who voted for John Howard last time may well switch to the Rudd team to allow the Liberal party to sort itself out.
I really can’t see how the polls could move to the Coalition after all this.
It’s quite likely either with John Howard as leader or Peter Costello that the final result will be no better than 55% ALP and 45% Coalition.
It really doesn’t matter now after all this appalling publicity whether or not there is a change of leadership.
Malcolm Turnbull, who is most unlikely now to be leader prior to the election, may now lose his seat.
His body language in the House said it all. He looked totally fed up and deflated. He was probably wondering “Just what have I got myself into? I should have stayed out of politics”.
Peter Costello looked really grumpy too. Funny that Tony Abbott had to tell the media that Peter supported John Howard! Right.
No, the fat lady has not sung yet.
Kina at 572
maybe internal polls are worse in the sense of forecasting a double digit swing in safe Liberal seats in places like Mayo held by Downer, A.
The other argument made above about the Liberal panic being incompatible with positive internal polling doesn’t quite work. Most of their parliamentarians don’t have access to these details but they would be drip fed. If you were PM would you trust your partyroom (or Cabinet) to keep the internal polling or anything else secret (read Kelly and Shanahan’s columns today)?
There is also a good chance that the Liberals do have more favourable polls in marginal seats (consistent with the Newspoll quarterly breakdown analysed by Possum) but what they might not be leaking is that these polls come from a few weeks ago before things turned really bad (or that they cover regional areas like Bendigo where, I guess, that the interest rate hike hasn’t bitten as deeply)
WIN news in Canberra ran an “ALP internal poll” last night which purported to show Mike Kelly taking the party up seven points in Eden-Monaro, wiping out Gary Nairn.
Latest odds on Wentworth:
PORTLAND BET:
Liberal: 1.55
LABOR: 2.20(Labor firms from $7)
Maybe that’s why Moneybags Malcolm was looking so grumpy yesterday.
According to this the Libs meeting should be over by now.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22405045-29277,00.html
Don’t know when they will make their announcements.
I bet it was a big letdown, nothing happened, nobody got up to criticise Howard, Costello stayed silent, everyone professed their loyalty to the Rodent: ho hum!
What will be interesting is to know who abstained or didn’t speak on the leeadership question and also whether there was a motion. It wouldn’t have been in Peter Costello’s interests to call for a vote. KI bet there were a few sullen faces in the room. We’ll have to listen out for post-meeting leaks.
When even Tony Abbott’s very best spin on what has gone on aligns with our own Adam’s reading of the tea leaves things were very messy indeed last week and yesterday. Hopefully there is no sympathy vote now, attacking Howard strongly on policy might look like kicking someone on the ground
Howard Hater [579]:
I hope so. Because that would be the best possible result for Labor; having Howard still leader but politically dead man walking with Costello still sniping behind the scenes.
For a non-event, the meeting is dragging on…
From the article linked to in 578
As Liberal MPs met, Labor called quorums in both houses of parliament, forcing Liberal MPs and senators to temporarily leave the party room to make up the numbers.
It seems that Labor have been listening to James Carvilles rule that whenever your opponent is sinking, find every opportunity to throw them an anchor.
The morning show on Channel 7 with Koche seemed to be trying to support Howard this morning. God, how sick that would be, the devil getting sympathy votes!
Labor called quorums in both Houses of Parliament. Now that’s being cheeky, but in reality the pollies are there to govern, not to play internal party politics.
Crispy, the Lib meeting was over about 10am, but there was a Coalition meeting which was running in to parliament time and hence Labor called quorum.
Ah, thanks Will. Sounds like status quo then. Now I can get some work done.
Here in west I have just listened AM, Hewson,Steve Lewis and Michelle Gratton,Gratton was the only one who sounded like she lived on this planet. Fran Kelly behaves more and more like the spruiker guy from The Chasers,she is desperate to sell Howard no matter what.
Snow,
It was a nice touch. ALP still kepping a lot profile but just chipping away at moral at every oppourtunity. Well played so far.
I image they already have clear plans for dealing with Costello should he get to be PM. I’m undecided as to what is the best Lib firewall strategy.
The absolute worst scenario would be a switch to Costello and find that he does not have work rate to campain well and is comprehensively beaten in the election campain.
THE PARTY
Can only assume Johnny will be in control of what music is playing on the wireless, Abbott will be watching that nobody spikes the Tang. Turnbull will be chatting up girls with lines like “yeah, I’m all about trees babe, wanna go for a ride in my Ferrari? and Costello will be pissed on the veranda, bitching to his mates about how it woulda been better if they’d had it over at his place.
Fran is a very professional journalist and she is just trying to offset the overwhelmingly anti-Howard tone of the commentariat a bit. The media hunt in a pack as we know and at the moment they have become a lynch-mob. This is why we have a public broadcaster, by the way. Good work Fran.
New thread please, William (they’re probably still asleep in WA I guess)
I have Paliament on right now. Julie Bishop is speaking on something or other. There isn’t anyone behind her in the chairs where the front bench usually sits. Therefore, while the meeting is over and some members are in the chambers, not all of them are. If anything substantive is to come out of the meetings, they aren’t immediately announcing it if Bishop is speaking. Now, the members are filtering back into the chambers. If anything eventuates, I will let you know. Live Parliament feed on Sky News Active for those who have it.
Supposedly Sky News has confirmed that there was no challenge to Howard.
Jon Faine says nothing happened at all. What a lot of lemmings.
I would be satisfied if Fran Kelly would just tell it like it is and leave the offseting out of it.When Hewson and Lewis are part of the discussion no offseting is required in my opinion,just more professional journalisim.
At this point, it appears to be normal parliamentary business, nothing special. They are voting on bills.
What a load of cowards they are. Annabel Crabb in the SMH was right – the libs are like a bunch of 7-year olds poking a tiger snake and then running away. None of the current mob resemble Keating in any way, including now in the chutzpah department.
How this scenario helps the Liberal Party or is in it’s best interests is beyond me.
‘PM still in charge’ screams the Age:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pm-still-in-charge/2007/09/12/1189276760332.html
Oh well, wonder whether he will pay a visit to the GG soon
Ok, so: what actually happened yesterday?
Let’s hear your best theories.
Mine:
1. Various members of the front bench discussed on a one-to-one basis the leadership issue over the last week or so and a number indicated to one another privately that they thought a change was the best outcome for the party
2. By yesterday, Downer, Turnbull and Abbott were of the view, possibly mistaken but more likely not, that a majority of the front bench were anti-Howard that something was going to have to give. Downer and Turnbull therefore went to speak to Howard to give him this news, perhaps not so much to threaten him but in the hopes of a smooth transition.
3. Howard rejected their suggestion that he consider stepping down.
4. Someone leaked the story about the meetings to the press, which gave the anti-Howard push a life of its own and created a chance for a coup.
5. Howard came out publicly saying he was ready for a fight in order to fragment and frighten his already disorganised internal detractors.
6. After some hours of uncertainty the views expressed in private were not repeated when the various members of cabinet were challenged by Howard and his supporters, although for a while Downer, Turnbull and Abbott were hedging their bets (hence their non-committal remarks in the press).
7. Everyone realised that an organised coup was not going to take place and the key players therefore went to ground and reaffirmed their support for Howard.
8. Costello stayed silent throughout, in the hopes of having the leadership handed to him but with the expectation that what has happened would happen.
No way Bungs. They will want this to die down. Don’t expect the election to be called until the last moment. I’m tipping an early December eleection.
Excellent. Now Howard will face the music.
I believe Howard must call an election this week, before another poll comes out.
Should get a Morgan ph on Fri, taken Wed/Thur, which should be interesting. What a bunch of cowards the Libs are!!!
CTEP, you are rejecting your own name…
*cackles evilly*
I’m not. I’d love him to call an election. I just don’t see it happening for a while now. The Liberal Party is full of blind-faithers who believe that with just a little bit more time people will ‘come to their senses’ and see the error of their ways.
They will also want to wait for the local council pleb’s so they can spruik the results of that… talk about it in the media for a few more days etc.
Practically, I just don’t think the election is going to be for a while yet.
“This” won’t die down. It will keep going. Newspoll will kick it along on Tuesday. Voters will simply see a rabble. Rudd will say: “If you can’t govern yourselves ,you can’t govern the country.” For that reason, Howard needs a circut breaker – an election date announcement and a focus on the campaigns and opposing teams. I think he’ll call on the GG this Sunday.
An uneasy calm seems to have settled over this affair, but there has been no resolution. Why hasn’t Howard called the election? That would be a resolution. Is he trying to draw Costello out? We now know that all the talk of staying as long as the party wanted him was just lies. Only a fight will get him out. But a fight will damage the party and Howard. So why doesn’t he call the election? What crucial legislation has to be passed before parliament is wound up? Theories anyone?
He’s already said that they will sit for this whole fortnight. The polls are not going to get any worse, they’re already bad. Any movement towards the government will stop a leadership challenge from happening. This was their last chance…
I have to say they’ve completely lost any momentum they may have gathered a few months ago… nothing’s going right for them.
Howard needs to buy a good poll, a poll taken from the ‘right’ places to give the ‘right’ answers to calm the nervous nanny-goats on the front and back stalls.
Can you imagine if the next poll showed 58/42?
Time for Rudd and Co to get his face in the camera again talking business in contrast to the Govt’s angina attack.
What’s more important is the public perception of all this.
What do they think? Of course the Libs will want to bed this down as quickly as possible and pretend it never happened. I really doubt if they will risk going beyond Nov 3rd. It’s a huge risk. They would like to put space between this and the election but it’s quite limited.
What we can expect now is some big announcement on a new initiative from John Howard to prove he is still in charge and to distract the media and public. Maybe he will match Kevin Rudd’s hospital takeover or something equally big.
He may announce reducing company tax.
It’ll be something big enough to cause a buzz in the media.
And of course we will all fall for it.
Yep, at the moment Labor looks more like a govt than the govt itself. When the opposition looks more like the govt than the govt, it has the making of a huge bloodbath.
Reducing company tax would be a huge dud in the electorate. He won’t want to be seen to be cosying up to business any more.
My bet is a leaked ’scandal’ on a union official. Another video tape.
600
Patrick Bateman Says:
September 12th, 2007 at 11:19 am
Ok, so: what actually happened yesterday?
Let’s hear your best theories.
Sky News are still reporting a majority of the cabinet (apparently not willing to say so publically) do NOT support Howard to lead onto the election. What that tells me is that they don’t have the numbers *yet* so can’t move. Thus they are forced in public to say that they are behind him.
Has Costello personally come out to the media as being behind Howard? I know Abbott has said it but that’s not really Costello saying it. I want to see him squirm.
Nice summary Patrick. However you omitted the bit where Howard started the whole ball rolling himself by asking Downer to talk to the front bench about leadership. Talk about spooking your own horses. And yesterday’s mess was incredible. If there was no neat organised putsch on, how was it allowed to drag on all day? Why didn’t Downer pledge support as soon as Howard made it clear he wasn’t stepping aside? And if Costello didn’t want it, why not say so? It was all so inept.
I can’t decide if Howard is now trailing blood all the way to the ballot box, or looking like the sort of tough old bird you’d want running the country. Both, I suppose.
Re (609)
What crucial legislation has to be passed before parliament is wound up? Theories anyone?
They voted on an education bill this morning about 11am. Also on the agenda today, votes or discussion on tax bills and National Greenhouse and Energy Reporting bill. More along those lines, nothing I can see that is essential ….. no idea why he doesn’t call it, polls will only get worse
Punters have made up their minds on the election. Betfair now ALP $1.40, Coalition $3.35 on Betfair
Marker flags have been seen in the enemy trenches.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=501
Julie,
There’s the legislation relating to plebiscites (manufacturing a wedge in QLD on council amalgamations) plus the horse racing industry rescue package.
Sideline I imagine they will all be passed by the end of the day, the end of the week certainly.
I absolutely agree with your subbstantive analysis, but I have always thought that it was Howard’s embrace of old-style Fraserian election buying in the form of the petrol excise backflip that was arguably more significant as it allowed the Libs to turn the corner.
If they were as far behind in September as they were in MArch even 9/11 and Tampa wouldn’t have saved them.
I can’t imagine yestrdays frivolities will shift too many disengaged voters. On the other hand, if there is much truth at all to the “soft ALP support” thesis (which I doubt) then a lot of them just firmed up.
One certainty: Bolt has either been hung out to dry by Downer/Turnbull or shown to be an amateur for swallowing whispers of a “sounding out” as a certain transition.
The govts next scare campaign will be on GST increase as per ramblings in the Senate today. But is easy to counter – introduce bill making it harder to change GST rate – like a majority vote of the joint house sitting plus all the States.
Is it possible that Howard meant for Downer to test the water one on one and report to him in back door diplomatic sort of way.Downer instead calls a round table in a Sydney hotel room with invited guests and inadvertently sets the hares flying and looses control of the whole enterprise.
Martin, yes I agree that the petrol excise backdown helped a lot in 2001. The equivalent now would be a major backdown on WorkChoices, but that is a core policy for both Howard and Costello, and it won’t happen. In fact as we know a re-elected Howard-Costello government will give us WorkChoices II.
Adam #627
…re-elected Howard-Costello government…
That sounds to me like the ultimate impossibility.. A re-elected Howard government? unlikely, but possible… re-elected Costello government? even more unlikely, but barely possible. But those two working in Harness? it defeats my imagination
Howard is hoping to be saved by a margin of error movement
Now that Adolf Howard has emerged victorious from his bunker, any ideas on the likely election date? Sooner or later? the earliest date Oct 27th. My favourite date, the rationale being my birthday and what better double present could a bloke have than AH losing his seat and government! Thank you Australia! Thank you Bennelong.
If next Tuesday’s Newspoll is a shocker for the Libs (ALP 58+), and the House is still sitting, this will all happen all over again. Howard should dissolve tomorrow, as soon as he gets his plebiscite and horse flu bills through (although with Beattie gone the Qld councils issue is a dead parrot).
Howard telling backbench that polling from Crosby-Textor says that the government is in front.
Strange, given ALP internal polling revealed yesterday showed it in front after a 6.9 p/c swing.
It’s the battle of the internal polls….
Should have mentioned, crosby-textor polling is for eden-monaro
Costello press conference in 20 minutes, Howard hitting radio.
SJP,
Seems it must be 27 October now. He won’t go Saturday of Melbourne Cup weekend as any votes he still holds in VIC at that point will be gone if he does. Folks who are gearing up for that multi day race-a-thon will be furious if they have to stop to go to the polls. He will want to have it though before the Reserve Board meets again. If he doesn’t and delays it beyond that Reserve Board meeting, that will be the final nail in his coffin. As it is, his coffin is 95% nailed shut anyways ;-D
it seems the punters haven’t access to “secret polling ” in Bendigo.. ALP in from $1.25 overnight, to $1.10 on Portland.
overall, Govt out from $2.85 this time yesterday, to 2.95 overnight, and 3.15 now.
Scotty said:
“What a load of cowards they are. Annabel Crabb in the SMH was right – the libs are like a bunch of 7-year olds poking a tiger snake and then running away. ”
This is beautifully put. I am so relieved. My nightmare is that JH resigns or is deposed before the election and doesnt’t get to be thrown out by the people as he so thoroughly deserves.
Now I may yet get to see what, on those oh so dark nights of the soul in 2001 and 2004, I dared not dream of.
So we’ve seen a government in crisis in the past 24 hours, and arguably the heaviest leadership speculation on that side of the house in 13 years. So what will it take to really blow it up on Tuesday morning? Will 58-42 be enough? How about 62-38? We’ve had a 61-39 Newspoll earlier in the year, so anything is possible.
So Coota they’re hanging their hopes on polling for Eden-Monaro? You’d have to wonder how reliable their polling is… given the seat was one of a few to swing towards the ALP in the recent state election.
By the way i’m tipping a late November/early December election still. They’ll risk the RBA meeting because it’s unlikely rates will rise anyhow, and the impact will be minimal in any case.
Poll numbers in addition to the BetFair numbers (1.40/3.35) posted earlier:
1. Sportsbet – still closed
2. Portland Bet – 1.33/3.15
3. Sports Acumen (ACT) – 1.39/2.95
4. Canbet (UK) – 1.38/3.00
5. Sportingbet Oz (NT) – 1.35/3.05
6. Centrebet – still closed
7. IAS bet.com – 1.38/3.00
I assume Peter Costello’s press conference is going to be a yawn-inducing “I’m behind John” conference.
I’m crossing my fingers it’s him announcing his retirement from politics.
CTEP: A rate rise would just cement the loss, no rise will allow them to get a bit of cred for ‘managing the economy so well’ but do nothing for their position. So I’ve come to the conclusion that they’re not worried about the RBA now. It’s do or die. They have Buckly’s chance at winning, so they may as well go out with a bang.
One factor to look out for here is rising panic from Coalition backbenchers just before parliament rises the week after next.
A former ALP senator during the Hawke-Keating years I know makes the observation that whenever a government is going badly in the polls in an election year and parliament is due to rise, then it’s almost bankable that some backbenchers, usually out on the drink, get panicky and start talking to press gallery journos. This inevitably results in further destabilisation of the government’s position.
Last State elections, for the first time since I moved to Gippsland, I got an ALP member representing me in Parliament, Matt Viney MLC. I’ve even had to vote for an independent to keep the Nats out. Now, I think we’re in with a chance in Gippsland, so in hope I’m going to take the “disenfranchised” out of my name.
Or maybe change it to “enfranchised Gippslander”.
Howard has pulled it off again, at leasy for the moment and at least with his own party-room……by not calling the election, he is giving out the message that he will not be panicked and by asserting himslef over Costello and the party, he may have found a temporary “cheer-raiser”, at least among his die-hard supporters.
But as my 21 year old daughter said to me this morning, the Liberals look quite crippled now.
The Liberal succession dilemma has not been resolved, just perpetuated. It is hard to see how the public will elect a party to government when its leadership is inherently unstable. As well, it is hard to see now how this PM/Treasurer double-act can be sustained for long. It has to collapse soon, you would think…..
Thanks for coming everybody – I’m closing this thread and opening a new one.