I have just awoken to a barrage of “Turnbull and Downer deny calling for PM to quit” headlines, capped by Andrew Bolt’s sensational assertion that Peter Costello will be Prime Minister tomorrow. No time to absorb any of this, but a new thread is clearly in order.
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How come Rudd gets energy without having to be filmed on a morning power walk, wearing a ghastly outfit? (could it be the famed “leader’s yellow jersey” of discredited Tour de France fame?)
I guess though, that if I had a free house under the Sydney Harbour Bridge, I’d go for a walk each morning too.
Scorpio, where did you get that bit about Eden-Monaro from?
{It’s a very good sign that Labor is ahead at this stage, but if they didn’t take this seat, they would have no chance of forming government.}
It’s been put forward by commentators for decades that Eden Monaro is the “Bell Weather” seat and that the party that captures it gains Government.
That was the reasoning behind my comment. It may very well be an ezception this time, but I very much doubt it.
It is only when the advice comes from a ministry which may have lost the confidence of the assembly, or is undermining the constitutional system itself – either directly or indirectly through persistent illegality – that the Governor is entitled to take independent action.
The Governor’s constitutional duty to act on the advice of the ministry is usually performed by acting on the advice of the Premier – on the basis that the incumbent retains the support of the ministry. Where the Governor reasonably believes that the incumbent has lost that support, the governor is justified in requiring a reaffirmation of that support before acting on the Premiers advice.
Gerard Carney, The Constitutional Systems of the Australian States and Territories p283 (Cambridge University Press, 2006)
I presume this also applies to the federal government.
Scorpio, where did you get that bit about Eden-Monaro from?
It came from a post on Tim Dunlop’s Blog. Seemed legit.
375 Kina
Well said.
Putting my cynical hat on, how much of the media frenzy on this today is the press gallery’s revenge for the weeklong non-event of APEC?
Did everyone else catch this bit from the piece linked upthread?
Or in other words, the Sky News report this morning was true.
Downer said that the cabinet members are happy with JWH going to the election.
I would be more convinced only if one more man spoke up.
We have not heard from Costello fo a week. We didn’t hear peep out of him today about the issue. Him saying “I’m not interested” would have killed the issue well and truly.
I still have a sneaky suspicion something is up. Maybe there could be a back-bench revolt or something like that
Annabel Crabb on smh.com.au made the observation that the less you hear from Costello, the higher the chance that there is plot afoot. It may not come to pass tomorrow, but something may happen.
I also think people on this site really got their hopes up. You didn’t think JWH would go that easily, did you? Besides this way, people may still their concession speech.
I wonder if Howard’s concession to the party is that he will go to the GG this weekend.
For the Govt every Poll from now on will be like waiting for X-ray results. I would love a 58/42 but suspect we will get back to our normal 55/56 business. I wonder if we will get a Morgan phone Friday?
Surely, that’s it. Howard stays, takes everyone down with the ship. Alexander, mixed feelings, but there we go. 7.30 Report.
listening to pm ,where they interviewed people in bennelong,asking who they would vote for if howard resigned, most would vote for rudd
the comment that was common to all of them was ” it’s time for a change”
either this is not so subtle editing by the abc or there really is a mood for change
the polls at present predict “its time for a change”
“It’s been put forward by commentators for decades that Eden Monaro is the “Bell Weather†seat”
Hey Scorp, it’s ‘bell wether’, as in neutered male sheep leading the flock. Seems somehow appropriate today….
An interesting article on News.com;
JOHN Howard has missed his chance to bow out gracefully and should stay on to lead his party into the next election and face the consequences, NEWS.com.au readers say.
After we asked whether the PM should stay or go, the first post to the blog set the tone with this irreverent dig at the troubled leader:
“STAY!!â€, Supersmirk from Sydney said. “I want to see what other tensions will come to the surface prior to the election. This is fun!â€
Then reader Brian invoked one of Mr Howard’s political heroes to twist the knife: “I hope he stays as I want to see him beaten rather than walking away. It won’t be quite as good as seeing Mrs Thatcher get hers but will still be very enjoyable.â€
Perhaps preparing a latter day Don’s Party, reader Big W wrote: “I think he should stay. I have a bottle of champagne read to pop in celebration on the night he loses his own seat and his government gets tossed out by the scruff of their necks.â€
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22401447-2,00.html
Hugo et al
the decision the libs have to face is ultimately finely balanced. The options are
a) stick with Howard
pros – a proven election winner
– shows the libs are united
– shows stability
– he might have a rabbit in that hat
cons – he’s losing
– he’s seen as a man of the past
– he’s losing
– he’s been in too long
– he’s losing
b) go for Costello
pros – a new team might revive our chances
– might disconnect the govt from the mistakes of the past
– a chance to dump workchoices* and iraq
– a new team may wrong-foot Rudd and stem the tide
cons – a change now makes us look bad
– noone likes costello
– if we change we have to admit that we’re in trouble
The libs are only discussing change under the intense poll pressure. But change is always difficult. It is a proven psychological fact that people will only change under intense pressure or in crisis situations. Most people long for the security of the status quo, so it is very easy for power brokers to maintain that through fear and the herd mentality.
But once a shift has started, especially in a high-pressure situation, it will be impossible to stop the flood. Are we seeing a flood-tide?
* unlikely as Costello is more right wing than howard on IR
Johnny Rocket.
I wrote Post 24, you wrote post 26&27&29
I read above someone say a six percent swing in Eden-Monaro, this sort of shows Possum’s reading of the newspoll quarterly data saying the swing is bigger in safer seats.
So we are seeing 6% swings in Edan Monaro and Bennenlong, so for the polls to be correct somewhere the swing will need to be in double figures but where.
I found Downer’s performance interesting, only last week he appeared the loudest supporter of Howard, tonight he basically conceded the cabinet has spent most of the past week discussing leadership.
I don’t see any spelling mistakes!!
Up with how much more must one put? What If ? The election date actually went to JANUARY!!
No, all correct bmw. Well done.
I just wanted to get ‘neutered sheep’ into a post. Forgive me.
oyster said
It’s Howard’s own fault. He has been running this phoney election campaign for nearly 8 months. He hasn’t scored a killer blow, and everyone is sick of it. Let’s just get it over with. That sentiment will only increase until the election. Howard *is* the problem.
Downer has let the cat out of the bag in regard to their internal polling in his interview with Sky News today.
MR DOWNER: Look I don’t think you should be harsh on people thinking about all of our options during a time when they are concerned that “our polling is not going as well as”, the public polling, is not going as well as they might hope. But on the other hand, I think at the end of the day, they really see John Howard as the best option for the country and the best option for the Liberal Party.
Love it. Totally rattled.
re 373
paul k Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 7:22 pm
Swing Lowe,
As a former Howard supporter I also like the look of Turnbull but I think it’s too late….he may not even keep his seat! I can’t see there being enough time for any new leader.
Doesn’t Malcolm only have a 2% margin in his seat?
By making him the PM they would have to think that he could limit their (expected) loss to at least that swing?
Is that a feasible expectation at this late stage? Of course, he might win!!!
I personally think he is the best of a bad lot, and deserves to have a crack at Howard if only in revenge for being shafted on the Republican referendum!
Costello is too closely associated with Howard and all the Liberal policies esp WorkChoices, that are now on the nose with the electorate.
And what about his previous association with the HR Nicholls Society and the Dollar Sweets case? Certainly has been no friend of the working classes in the past!
I think he would have to do a huge repudiation of all of that even to start being halfway credible as an alternative PM…
And BTW I don’t like the smirk!
For much of the year, the polls have seemed to operate in a heightened state. I mean, sure Labor was ahead, but it didn’t seem credible that they were THAT far ahead. Like most people, I had fully expected the polls to narrow by now – which they did, ever so slightly over the winter. But the last few weeks have been awful for the government, and the shenanigans of the last few days has really been the icing on the cake. The state of the two parties is now clearly reflected in the polls – at the moment you’d have to say Labor is in far better shape to assume government that the Coalition is.
The polls no longer seem to have an air of unreality about them – the government is heading for the rocks and there’s probably not much that anyone can do about it.
And he still isn’t going to call the election for another 1.5 weeks at the earliest! Surely this is like Keating circa 1996, waiting until the last possible chance to call the election.
Is a wether a neutered boy or girl sheep? (I know nothing about sheep other than that they somehow become lamb kebabs)
Lucus [384]:
I suspect Crosby Textor in focus groups have identified that Howard’s age is now seen as a problem. So to neutralise this competing message they have instructed Howard’s senior ministers to start emphasising his vitality.
Lib spin doctors will also try to ramp up the media opps of Howard out walking in the morning in his rah rah (translation for non NSW, QLDers; rugby union, the game of private schoolboys north of the Murray) tracksuit.
Re the day’s events…
I’m with Hugo here. I think today is a great result for Labor. It looks like the Rodent will now face the people for his day of reckoning.
Scorpio
Have you got a link for that Downer quote?
The June Crosby Textor stuff was actually worse for the Coalition than the newspoll stuff.It’s partly the way they measure undecideds (lower in CT), and their issue measurements (and the more intensive questioning involved) lead me to believe that the CT stuff is slightly more accurate than the standard pollsters, and was showing a poorer Coalition standing in both June and earlier periods than the likes of Newspoll and Galaxy.This is also reflected in the “soft voter” measurements of CT being 5% each for the ALP and Coalition in June compared to some of the more courageous methods that are used as a proxy for softness by the major pollsters.
If you’ve got a link for that, I’d be eternally grateful.
So I now think Labor will start really focusing on their policies. I would like them to do a big vote winner one within the week (they might have to wait until after parliament so the ‘communications fund’ thing doesn’t happen again).
Also, I think they will also need to focus on their 10 yr statergy, not as Howard said last night ‘for the next 3 years’.
I think that was from tonight’s 7:30 Report. The transcript should eventually appear here:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2030224.htm
#424 Adam, as a former employee of the Big Merino in Goulburn, I am happy to inform you that a wether was formerly, to use your scientific term, a boy sheep.
If I was Rudd I would actually hold off announcing much for a couple of days, because the things he announces, like increasing benefits for veterans ( http://www.alp.org.au/media/0907/msloova100.php )keeps getting swamped by Liberal Party navel gazing.
I think he should cut the GST to 5% for first home buyers. Currently the first home owners rebate is basically designed to off-set the GST, why not cut the GST as well, so it means real dollars towards the house, rather than giving back what was already taken.
Possum Comitatus Says:
September 11th, 2007 at 9:53 pm
Scorpio
Have you got a link for that Downer quote?
I got it off Bolts Blog.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/downer_turnbull_give_up_on_howard_report/
Apparently Bolt also replies to a commenyer who questioned his sources for his Post and he inserted a reply that he had confirmed the story with both Downer and Turnbull’s Offices.
All this talk about Eden Monaro..
how can anyone reasonably call a seat “blue Ribbon’ if it is a bellwether seat that changes hands every time a government changes
It sounds a bit too unstable to be qualify for “Blue Ribbon”
Perhpas we need a new bellwether?
eg one of those ultra marginals in South Australia
Thanks Scorpio, you’re a real champ
Forget about recording polling numbers.
What of record pollbludgering numbers?
Is this the longest thread in a single day? Ever?
My tuppence worth is that whilst the Liberals are panicked, there is no-one to step up to the plate. No-one clearly likely to attract significantly more votes than Howard; and more importantly no-one who wants to be PM for a month then play the Beazley role for 1-2 terms only to hand over to someone like Turnbull…
Howard is in real trouble. The rats are nervous, ready to jump ship at any reasonable threat now.
John Valder has called for Howard to step down and I think somewhere Tony Staley has said the same thing.
ELEANOR HALL: Well, one former federal president of the Liberal Party, who was a key player in the party’s leadership battles of the 1980s, has warned that if John Howard doesn’t go now, he risks destroying the party.
John Valder was federal president in the mid 1980s, when he was one of John Howard’s closest confidantes, but since then he’s become disaffected with the Prime Minister and even helped campaign against him at the last election.
Mr Valder spoke to me just before we came on air about the current leadership tensions.
ELEANOR HALL: John Valder, you were in the midst of another leadership crisis with John Howard 20 years ago, what’s your response to the current wranglings in the leadership of the Liberal Party?
JOHN VALDER: Well, I would be in the camp now, and it’s the very opposite to what I was 20 years ago, when I was very firmly in Howard’s camp, much to the distaste of Andrew Peacock. But today I would certainly be in the camp saying that Howard should go.
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s2029862.htm
But the question on everyone’s lips is where’s federal Liberal Party president Chris McDiven?
There are some who say this is precisely why Mr Howard put her in this position.
Previous leaders of the party like Tony Staley or Ron Walker would certainly have been players at this stage and would have stepped in for the good of the party. But that is not what’s happening at the moment and people are asking where Ms McDiven is.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/11/2030155.htm
Talk of ‘blue ribbon’ seats reminds me of Colin Hughes telling me: ” blue ribbon is a type of ice cream. the original term is ‘blue ribband’ ” I thought he was just stirring till I looked it up in an historical dictionary… ‘Ribbon’ was an American slip of the tongue, by analogy with ribbons for first prize at agricultural shows.
I was watching this site and two other blogs all day today (Bolt and Price)..
Its interesting to note the two different styles.
Bolt has totally nailed his colours to the mast on his “its over” theme and, in my view, will be praying for a good result to maintain his credibility as a conservative journalist. His record over the last few years has been one of good articualtion of balanced conservative views, but his position must be in serious question now.
On the other hand, Matt Price sounded like the more seasoned (and impartial) commentator to my mind. Far more the reporter of facts, rather than a player on the field
Learing a lot today
Adam. A wether is a male sheep that has been castrated. A speyed ewe does not take on a different title for some reason.
{Is this the longest thread in a single day? Ever?}
It’s going well. Matt Price is running at 446 at the moment, so not too far behind.
does anyone bother spaying ewes? as opposed to caponisation.
Today was close to a mortal blow for the coalition’s chances at the next election.
The coalition have seriously called into question the issue of leadership – I note the CT analysis had that as a coalition strength, and now the electorate won’t know what they’re really voting for come the election.
They have seriously damaged their “team” strength – also a strength according to the CT analysis, albeit under the radar, and they have been trying to build it for weeks.
Add to that Possum’s analysis of the actual impact of rate changes and the coalition is left with almost no political leverage with the electorate.
More generally, my view is that you don’t see the type of theatrics we’ve had today unless thing are really, really serious. If it wasn’t this close to an election it would almost certainly end in a leadership change. This is poison for the coalition. The electorate will no longer be certain what they’re voting for if they vote liberal on election day, and the ALP will exploit this to the fullest.
In additon, the coalition has spent the past week, and particularly today, acting like a party ready to eat itself. Even if the ALP and press don’t continue to nag at this (and they will), the electorate will have noticed.
I think it will actually take several days for the implications of today to fully filter through the parties, press and electorate. When it does, the atmosphere for the coalition will be only slightly less ugly than it was today.
Valder told Howard to go 3 or 4 weeks ago in an article published in the Canberra Times.
Election betting suspended over the ledadership crisis, but a lot of money has backed Labor in the last few days.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/bookies-halt-poll-betting/2007/09/11/1189276691029.html
“Bellwether” is discussed on Wp at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bellweather
There is some interesting trivia about the accuracy of B. status in the US. Can we build up some data on the B. federal divisions eg.
Parramatta
Eden-Monaro
Are there any others?
Tomorrow’s QT should be fun, as the Health Minister will have a few questions to answer: http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Problems-found-with-flu-drug-stockplie/2007/09/11/1189276722271.html
All this sheep talk, where’s kiwipundit?
Surely this will poll him away from ewetube (boom tish)
Barbara @ #440. I dont think either are done to any extent with sheep. Rams are castrated because of the beneficial effect it has on both wool production and meat quality as well as the advantages in husbandry. None of these things really apply to ewes.
Bolt and Matt Price coming up on Lateline. Bolt’s commenters have turned on him in a big way for speaking against Dear Leader…
Eden Monaro and Macarthur are the two generally quoted as Bell Wether sears with the former given the most prominence.
explosive details in tomorrows oz
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