Comments on: Movement at the station

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:56:43 +0000

Thanks for coming everybody – I’m closing this thread and opening a new one.

By: blindoptimist

blindoptimist — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:56:29 +0000

Howard has pulled it off again, at leasy for the moment and at least with his own party-room……by not calling the election, he is giving out the message that he will not be panicked and by asserting himslef over Costello and the party, he may have found a temporary “cheer-raiser”, at least among his die-hard supporters.

But as my 21 year old daughter said to me this morning, the Liberals look quite crippled now.

The Liberal succession dilemma has not been resolved, just perpetuated. It is hard to see how the public will elect a party to government when its leadership is inherently unstable. As well, it is hard to see now how this PM/Treasurer double-act can be sustained for long. It has to collapse soon, you would think…..

By: Sideline Eye

Sideline Eye — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:56:06 +0000

Or maybe change it to “enfranchised Gippslander”.

By: disenfranchised Gippslander

disenfranchised Gippslander — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:55:00 +0000

Last State elections, for the first time since I moved to Gippsland, I got an ALP member representing me in Parliament, Matt Viney MLC. I’ve even had to vote for an independent to keep the Nats out. Now, I think we’re in with a chance in Gippsland, so in hope I’m going to take the “disenfranchised” out of my name.

By: Sideline Eye

Sideline Eye — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:50:53 +0000

One factor to look out for here is rising panic from Coalition backbenchers just before parliament rises the week after next.

A former ALP senator during the Hawke-Keating years I know makes the observation that whenever a government is going badly in the polls in an election year and parliament is due to rise, then it’s almost bankable that some backbenchers, usually out on the drink, get panicky and start talking to press gallery journos. This inevitably results in further destabilisation of the government’s position.

By: Will

Will — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:50:42 +0000

CTEP: A rate rise would just cement the loss, no rise will allow them to get a bit of cred for ‘managing the economy so well’ but do nothing for their position. So I’ve come to the conclusion that they’re not worried about the RBA now. It’s do or die. They have Buckly’s chance at winning, so they may as well go out with a bang.

By: Call the election please

Call the election please — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:50:13 +0000

I assume Peter Costello’s press conference is going to be a yawn-inducing “I’m behind John” conference.

I’m crossing my fingers it’s him announcing his retirement from politics.

By: Julie

Julie — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:45:57 +0000

Poll numbers in addition to the BetFair numbers (1.40/3.35) posted earlier:

1. Sportsbet – still closed
2. Portland Bet – 1.33/3.15
3. Sports Acumen (ACT) – 1.39/2.95
4. Canbet (UK) – 1.38/3.00
5. Sportingbet Oz (NT) – 1.35/3.05
6. Centrebet – still closed
7. IAS bet.com – 1.38/3.00

By: Call the election please

Call the election please — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:44:12 +0000

So Coota they’re hanging their hopes on polling for Eden-Monaro? You’d have to wonder how reliable their polling is… given the seat was one of a few to swing towards the ALP in the recent state election.

By the way i’m tipping a late November/early December election still. They’ll risk the RBA meeting because it’s unlikely rates will rise anyhow, and the impact will be minimal in any case.

By: Scotty

Scotty — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 02:43:13 +0000

So we’ve seen a government in crisis in the past 24 hours, and arguably the heaviest leadership speculation on that side of the house in 13 years. So what will it take to really blow it up on Tuesday morning? Will 58-42 be enough? How about 62-38? We’ve had a 61-39 Newspoll earlier in the year, so anything is possible.