• The past fortnight has seen much talk emerge from the Coalition camp of encouraging internal polling in sensitive seats. Tony Barrass of The Australian today reports that a Crosby-Textor poll conducted a fortnight ago had the Liberals on track to retain their 10 seats in Western Australia while also gaining another of the remaining five, Cowan. On Saturday, The Australian reported a “jump in the party’s support in the crucial seat of Bass”. This was apparently putting Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull under pressure to approve Gunns’ proposed Tamar pulp mill, regardless of the damage this would cause to his own position in Wentworth. The “senior Liberal source” behind the story reckoned that Turnbull’s seat was “not in trouble”.
• And yet, on the other hand, we also have reports the Liberals have begged Jackie Kelly, Warren Entsch, Kay Elson, Geoff Prosser, Trish Draper and Barry Wakelin to abandon their plans to retire, to improve the party’s chances of retaining their seats of Lindsay, Leichhardt, Forde, Forrest, Makin and Grey. Remarkably, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reported yesterday that Liberal polling showed Grey, held by a margin of 13.8 per cent, would be lost unless Wakelin stayed on. It was further reported he had briefly agreed to do so before changing his mind again, with his nominated successor Rowan Ramsey urged to smooth the path by stepping aside.
• On the other side of the fence, Paige Taylor of The Australian talks of Labor polling which shows it set to double its margin in Brand, the outer southern Perth seat being vacated by former leader Kim Beazley.
• Labor MP Gavan O’Connor, who lost preselection in his seat of Corio to ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, raised eyebrows by declining to farewell parliament during last week’s presumed valedictory speech. Mark Davis of the Sydney Morning Herald speaks of “a frisson of anxiety in Kevin Rudd’s office” at the thought of O’Connor standing against Marles as an independent.
• A huge round of applause for Luke Miller and his revamped Cassandra Senate election calculator, which allows us to set quotas and input our own preference tickets. This means it can be used to play out any hypothetical scenario not only for both half and full Senate elections, but also for all mainland state upper houses.
• I abandoned the practice of fisking newspaper commentary on opinion polls early in the history of this site, because it seemed too much like shooting fish in a barrel. Give thanks that Possum Comitatus harbours no such qualms.
382 Comments
The outcome of all the WA seats could be irrelavant come election night with Labor winning more than enough in the Eastern states to govern.
Let’s hope so anyway.
Bass. Of the Liberal Tas seats, Bass and Braddon, Bass is the one they have the most chance of keeping. Ferguson is a personable and hardworking member, although he is not an “everyman” type and can polarise voters with his right-Christian views. But northern Tasmania is now solidly labor, providing it’s the socially and economically conservative brand, and considering the national mood to Rudd at the moment it is hard to see Ferguson holding back the tide. He doesn’t have that much incumbency appeal.
The pulp mill is a real problem for both parties, because it is not clear how the Bass electorate will respond. The voters are genuinely and many are quite passionately divided: it is no certainty that a Turnbull approval will help Ferguson. But what do Labor do? Come in behind or go the other way? I really don’t know what is the best political decision on the mill and I don’t think the parties do either. My bet is that Turnbull will not make a decision before the election; I’m sure that is what he would prefer.
Shall we expect “leaked” internal ALP polling to tell another story in WA? I do like it when various entities release polls to try and discredit each other’s information (see Eden-Monaro several weeks ago, with several Coalition sources contradicting each other). The disinformation war continues…
The Libs are pleading with businesses to donate to their election campaign. I wonder if business is willing to give more to the Libs since the pro-WorkChoices ads haven’t done anything.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Liberal-Party-makes-fundraising-push/2007/09/25/1190486237053.html
Since the ‘Liberal Team’ announcement leaked internal Liberal polling is contradicting Labor internal polling, public polling and other leaked Liberal internal polling.
Am I a cynic?
The WA polling doesn’t really surprise me. I’ve always thought the Coalition will hold all their seats in WA, and possibly pick up Cowan and/or Swan.
Cowan’s become increasingly ‘aspirational’ and snobby. With all the new development in the area I expect it to become a quite safe Liberal seat eventually.
Read carefully the Australian article on Stirling – it does not actually say they are ahead and it does not firmly predict that they will win.
It is designed to leave and impression without saying anything specific.
This is at odds with what Federal Labor politicians were telling Adam last week in Canberra, that they were confident of winning back Stirling and Hasluck. I don’t come from WA, I don’t pretend to know what’s going on over there.
Isn’t Brand supposedly full of miners on AWAs? If Labor is increasing their margin in that seat, it doesn’t say much for the supposed popularity of Work Choices and AWAs in that sector of the economy.
Good to hear that Labor will increase its margin in Brand but is this accurate?
These claims don’t match up with any published polling, so the default stance should be one of scepticism. If the numbers seriously supported the assertions, they’d release them, together with the ones that suggested they were doing well in Eden-Monaro.
Ergo, baloney.
Labor Party leaks polling showing they’re in front!
Liberal Party leaks polling showing they’re in front!
Whatever happened to the days of a Party claiming to be the “underdog”???
I think we ought stick to published opinion polls from here on in.
Takes me back to the June 21 Crosby Textor polling (leaked yes, but at least we saw it). One CT’s points was that the expectation factor was hurting them – maybe that’s why we keep seeing leaks about holding on in the west.
Hawkie apparently campaigning here at the moment, seems to be generating some interest in the media.
I wish it was all over. My brain is hurting from trying to ‘keep a lid on it’. Each day I wait for something to happen that’ll hurt Kevin 07. And each day there is something that should make me more optimistic. I learnt very early on that if you plan for a good night you’ll have a disaster, so plan for the worst so you can’t be dissappointed. But, in this climate it just gets harder and harder to plan for the worst. Even my seat of Greenway is looking positive for ALP – unthinkable a few months ago!
The article says the coalition leads Labor 51-49. This still represents a 3-4% statewide swing to Labor. Those people have to live somewhere!
HH #7
I was under the impression that Brand was more city folk than miners (impression…this is definately not fact).
I certainly hope that Brand is increasing. It certainly says a lot that someone taking over from Beazley can increase his margin (granted, circumstances favor Gray now and didn’t favour Kim in 04). But then again, Gary would have had a fair bit of experience running a campaign or two…..
That’s it Soozie.
Keep the glass half full.
Labor have this won so don’t worry it is a question by how much. By two seats or 20 seats
#10 wild E westerner The Liberals have got to give there members something to hang onto. Especially the deniers. Labor wants to exert more pressure on the Liberals. So it is in everyone’s interest to leak something. Liberals can’t claim underdog because that is pointing out the obvious.
#15 DLP Or 100 seats. He he, just keeping up the pressure.
Why do you call yourself DLP? There was a rather rude nickname going around, when the party was at it’s height. And I can’t help but think of that every time I see you name.
Sorry. Typo, your name.
If the Liberals claim underdog, that confirms the obvious, and could further effect moral.
I had heard of “push-polling” to influence undecided voters, but it looks like now we have “push-reporting” trying to influnce undecided readers!
Reminds me of Newspoll Sol’s recent comments. It looks like Sol is still “soft” in his support for Kevin Rudd. I looked up my sampling texts and I couldn’t find “soft” support defined anywhere. I suspect Kevin Rudd can pretty much kiss goodby Sol’s vote already.
#20 Socrates What evidence do you have of that? All the polls seem to have similar results.
Sorry I misread that as polling.
Doesn’t a 3-4% swing to Labor in WA mean not only will they NOT lose any seats, but they will actually gain a few? According to the pendulum, a 4.1% swing will see the Libs lose Hasluck and Stirling and make Swan and Cowan even safer, so I don’t understand the assertion that, if such a swing is achieved, that won’t happen. Clearly it will, unless something REALLY WEIRD is going on in WA. Or I’ve gone mad and am missing something big, which might be more likely
Take all “leaked” internal polling from both sides, with all the salt extracted at all the worlds de-salination plants, plus a little from the Dead Sea.
All we can rely on is the published polling from the pollsters.
Regarding WA; there is Westpoll, Newspoll quarterly breakdowns and Nielsen’s monthly state breakdowns.
All these sources combined for the last three months suggest the votes are:
L/NP 44 ALP 40 ~ TPP 50.5/49.5 = 4.9% swing to the ALP.
All year the polling from the west shows there is a swing to the ALP of at least 4%.
20 Socrates. Your right. Andrew Bolt is a good example of that.
Thank God for WA and im an atheist!
The Blue Rock stands firm!
Last nights brownlow count was very ammusing with a government (tax payer funded add ) on every single commercial break. And what a variety from superannuation to workchoices.
My favorite was the new workchoices add where the young lad working at the office talks about the fairness test and says if you lose your overtime pay they have to give you something back. Like 2 packs of biscuits and a cup of coffee? That seems fair to me. It would make a great gotcha call.
Every day Howard delays the calling the election is another day that increases his record as Australia’s 2nd longest serving PM. He is shoring up his “legacy”. I think that this is a significant factor in his timing, afterall he main concern is himself. However I believe that history will look back on the Howard years as the “Wasted Years”. Wasted opportunities to tackle climate change, infrastructure development, alternate energy technology development, education & training, world standard internet broadband, building a better & fairer society. I just hope the the polls are reflected on election day.
The election will be called after the grand finals, so they can waste more taxpayers money. If the ALP forces the Liberal Party to pay the money back, they will be bankrupt!
if you surveyed voters in almost any vaguely marginal electorate and asked which party they intended to vote for you would in most seats not get 50%+ of voters saying they would vote for either Labor or the Coalition, you would have to push non-respondents or ’soft’ voters towards identifying the party they were leading towards. You could spin any any message you liked from marginal seat polling. Also many commentators have no idea which previous figure to compare current polls with, see how Labor 2PPs in the low 50s in Qld are sometimes reported as bad news for Rudd when they indicate record levels of Labor support.
Don’t diss the WA punters – they can only form opinions based upon the available information and WA, like here in Qld, is a single newspaper (ultra right wing crap rag) territory. I can’t speak with experience about the WA TV news scene, but again, if it is like Qld, then it may well be dominated by Howard Huggers. Our own ABC here has had its news department stacked with Uglies – I think some of the stuff which has been going to air in the Qld ABC news bulletins since the management and editorial changes up here a couple of years ago would really drop the jaw of most sensible people in Sydney and Melb where there are deeper media pools.
Howard keeps saying he’s still got more things to do for the Australian people before he calls the election, i think most of the Australian people feel he’s actually done far too much for them and just want the election to be called and get this phony campaign over with.
SJP, (28) how right you are! And let’s not forget his blatant dishonesty: Tampa, GST, etc as well as his sinister racism with Geoffrey Blainey and their anit-Asian statements which stirred the likes of Pauline Hanson & One Nation! Let’s not forget his attacks on multiculturalism disguised as opposition to ‘political correctness’ as well as his refusal to say “Sorry” to the stolen generation!
No this man is much worse than a hapless reactionary or scheming ideologue or neo-con. Our JWH is just a conniving and self-serving pragmatist who really stands for nothing but his own advancement, least of all a love for his country. Why would he play wedge politics at every opportunity, especially when Australians were so keen to express their identity as a young Republic rather than a sycophantic monarchy!
Let’s rid ourselves of this divisive and evil little man once and for all. Let’s hope every Asian- Australian in Bennelong casts a vote for Labor and gives JWH the undignified exit from Australian politics he deserves! Now that would be justice.
Enough’s enough!
Correction: Howard has more government advertising to inflict on us before he calls the election. The TV stuff is laughable, the radio ads are even worse – they must really underestimate the intelligence of the average voter.
I watched one hour of commercial television last night, and the only vaguely political ad I saw was an anti Work Choices ACTU one.
Ok, let’s sane the whole debate up a bit: can anyone point me to any empirical evidence that Team Rodent is even in the game this time?
All you’ve got is JHo’s track record of stolid, workmanlike comebacks against fairly tame or lame opposition, before his government was really on the nose – and before an elephant sized vote killer called Workchoices strolled in.
Then youve got mandatory meeja story spinning on non-existent comebacks when the ALP 2PP drops from 60 to 56.
Its their job, yes, but I mean… FFS.
And then there’s yer standard issue punteriat caution, which is often expressed as wise-reserve-in-case-im-wrong arse coverage, but rarely has any persuasive – or even relevant data attached when trotted out.
Me, I like the Mackerras approach. Balls on the line. Big deal if you werent wrong later – when you never actually laid a bet its like, so what?
And thats why I predict Howard’s going down, just like the polls say. My reasoning is this: with base primary vote very solid over 9 months at 46-41 (and that figure is generous to the LNP) that Team rodent cant win the election.
Just cant. Simple.
None of these poll fluctuations have got them anywhere near an election winning position. And i see no evidence-based arguments to suggest they will over the next two, or in a campaign.
But hey ….fill me in if you got some!
This morning the betting market has moved back to labor a little, especially at Betfair, which is now at ALP $1.40, Coalition $3.30
Chris B @ 17
It is probably not the most loved history of the party but it explains where my factional views lay.
Whitlam clean us up very nicely in 1974 and in hindsight that was a good thing for the cause.
These days I would call myself centralist/right and I actually think that democratic pluralism is not a bad place to be.
As yopu can see by these threads it is not a view shared by the other contributors to this site.
Cheers
If I was Kevin Rudd, I’d be happy to let this pre-poll phase roll on as long as possible. Time is Rudd’s friend and Howard’s enemy. Every day that passes is another day he can use to get his messages across, another day to build public rapport with his ‘fresh new labor’ themes.
Howard can try to get people to change their declared views, but it is getting very late in the piece to expect much of that to happen. He has to face the fact that he is probably not going to get his poll numbers to climb much, if at all. Too many people in too many places are sick of him; their negative views are firmly-held; and if asked to state their preference, their reflex is going to be say:’Not Howard’. And if not Howard, then who else? The beneficiary is Kevin Rudd.
So if Howard can’t change the polls, the only hope he has is that people will not vote the way they say they are going to vote.
This is his dilemma. If he goes now, the risk is that people will vote the way they say they are going to vote – the Liberal Party will face oblivion. On the other hand, the longer he lets the pre-poll build up run, the greater the risk he’s taking: he’s letting Rudd work on his support and diminshing the chance that they will desert him at the last moment.
As well, by delaying, he risks alienating those voters who really want the poll to be called and for life to get back to normal, while making himself appear afraid of the people and out of his depth.
Of course, the Liberals can use this time to try to attack Kevin Rudd, try to trash him. But this is dangerous territory for the Liberals. By assaulting Rudd, they give him a platform on which he can stand – steadfast, calm, courageous. If they are not careful the Liberals will only help Rudd build his credentials as a leader. This same logic worked to Howard’s advantage in the past and can just as easily work for Rudd now.
Every day that passes is day that worsens Howard’s dilemma and helps rudd consolidate. Let there be at least another fortnight or so …
Why would Howard want to convince Trish Draper to recontest Makin? From memory her negative personal vote nearly cost them the seat at the last election.
For any Labor insiders, do you think there’s any truth to assertions that Labor members are sizing up offices, positioning themselves etc. for government?
I find this doubtful at best. I’d say a lot of Labor members etc. will be more pessimistic than us. I’d say a lot of them will be doubting it up to the election day.
Still, I suppose if this is the only thing the papers can find to run with it’s pretty sad for them…
All the labor “insiders†I know are officially crapping their pants. Cautious pessimism and disbelief at ongoing poll news are the dominant motifs.
Its actually a kind of illness. A semi-delusional state of incredulity in their party’s ability to win prevails.
Suffice to say, I wouldnt describe them as over-confident, no.
I’m with you.
However, just cause it’s fun to play with, here is the worst result for the govt that sees them fall over the line that I can conjure from Antony’s pendulum that is based on something like current trends
State/Swing to ALP/ALP 2PP
NSW/6.7/54.8 but Libs hold Bennelong and Wentworth
Vic/4.9/53.9 Libs scrape home in Deakin, McMillan, Corangamite
Qld/5.6/48.5
WA/0.5/45.1 Libs gain Cowan with Edwards retiring
SA/10.0/55.6
Tas/2.6/56.8 Pork save Bass
ACT/5.0/66.5 Or higher
NT/2.7/54.8
AUS/5.0/52.3
Would leave the libs with 75 seats to ALP 73 and governing with independent support (and a swag of seats with miniscule margins)
Any swing higher than that anywhere in the country – and Qld, WA, Tas and NT in particular look optimistic for the govt there – and they are gone.
Assuming the current ‘true’ voting intention is around 56/44, that’s nearly 4 points they have to claw back in just the right spots…
I’m sure there are some boys – and I’m sure it is the boys – creaming their jocks in anticipation of a position in the new Government that gives them prestige, money and a Government car. But that happens at every election, regardless of the party or what the opinion poll are or aren’t saying.
It’s the nature of the game (and the beast).
Whoops, forgot to close blockquote…
This Labor man isn’t getting too carried away with the polls. I still think this’ll be a hard election for Rudd to win, and if he does get over the line, it won’t be with 50 seat majorities.
I’ve learnt to never write the Rodent off! Howard is a cunning little bugger, I’m sure he’s got something dirty in the locker to try.
“I put the same figures in just then and got Labor 75 vs Libs 73″
Yes, but I specifically put in assumptions that Bennelong and Wentworth would be held against the swing.
I don’t necessarily agree with those assumptions, but that would be an optimisitc case for the govt.
Thanks Martin – interesting exercise!
Implicit in your method, of course, is an acknowledgment that on most versions of 52 – ish ALP 2PP, it wins government.
And yes, everything has to go right for JHo. On this front, I cant think of a worse alignment of minor parties for him in this: Greens up around 8-10%, the Dems having no right flank, ONP gone, and the most FF-friendly labor leader you could possibly conceive of in a month of Jump-for-Jesus sundays…
A very high ALP person told a friend of mine that the election will be very close, the ALP has a massive task ahead in getting 16 seats and there is no question of assuming victory in the slightest.
CTEP @ 43
It’s a tabloid beat up. The libs are jumping all over it in their desperation. Any laborite who gets cocky should be taken out and dealt with severely. It’s not over yet …
I’m not sure why polling in Bass would put pressure on Turnbull to approve the Gunns mill. Unlike the RFA and the mill workers last election, the only poll on the issue in the electorate that I’m aware of showed 53% of Bass votes polled don’t want the mill to go ahead. I can’t remember the undecided or the number that wanted the mill – and it was commissioned, though not carried out of course, by an environmental lobby group so the released results (if not the poll itself) are likely to be spun a little.
Still, the idea that many people have that everyone in Bass wants the mill (based on the Sydney media’s reading of the last election) is very flawed indeed.
Naughty, naughty!!
Labor’s alleged faux pas du jour:
Loitering with intent and a tape measure within the precincts of the parliament. For this abominable crime of political hubris suggest Coonan, Abbott and Costello, they are unfit to hold our nation’s highest office.
They’re lashing out at chimeras now. E-night’s just gained a whole new dimension.
hmm, to use the senate calculator I simply added 5% to all ALP votes and deducted 5% for all Lib votes and from the 2004 preferences it added a Victoria seat for the Greens along with WA and TAS. Not many people have talked up the Greens chances in Vic, why is that?
Yeah, Enemy … heard the unlovely Coonan on ABC wireless. Do they really think this stuff will move votes? Pathetic.
EC @54
Labor should as a matter of practicality and planning be preparing for government. Every opposition party should have plans in place for government no matter what the polls say. If labor did not have these plans in place it would leave them exposed to claims of being ill-prepared for government. Howard and co would have plans in place should they be re-elected.
Remember what happened in QLD, when the Libs and Nats didn’t know who would be premier if they won.
Quite right, Arbie Jay
In Victoria, when Bracks whacked Kennett, the new government was as shocked as everybody else. “Christ, what do we do now.” That’s from an insider, my other half.
Rudd and Co would be failing in their duty if they didn’t prepare for government. This talk of measuring carpets and such is just plain silly.
Eden-Monaro will go to Labor.
As of today 25.09.2007, at Sportingbet and LassetersSports, where people playing / betting with real money, list the odds for Eden-Monaro as follow:
@SportingBet: ALP 1.35 / LP 3.00
@LassetersSports: ALP 1.4 / LP 2.75
Both have overall (federal) Labor / Coalition odds at 1.45 / 2.75
#39 DLP Yes but the next poll that Labor needs to be thrown out at, a la Paul Keating, come back here, and you will find it similar for the Liberals. Although I suspect not for some time.
For Howard to win seats in WA, he has to achieve a swing his way. This appears impossible, boom or no boom. The hip-pocket issues that bite elsewhere in the country also bite in WA: high mortgage payments, high food prices, high credit card debts/ installments, punishing rent levels.
It’s true that wages have been going up quickly here, but not for everyone and not by enough to keep up with things. There is a real shortage of housing here, but house-starts are in fact declining. In the outlying areas of Perth, property prices have been falling somewhat (as they have in other cities), despite the shortage. A lot of people feel sort of trapped and while they may not exactly blame Howard for all this, they not going to leap over tables to vote for him either. He is going to wear some resentment for interest rate/ property price squeeze.
Younger people also feel hard done by in relation to tax: if they are not beneficiaries of the family tax credits, they pay the full marginal rates, unlike their child-rearing peers. It is really not easy for younger singles to make financial progress in Peth, precisely because the boom has pushed up costs so far and so fast.
Any idea the Liberals have that they might gain is seats in WA is just delusional. They face an almost impossible task to hold Hasluck and Stirling, whatever they might say about their polls.
Here is a clue that the Liberals don’t think they can pick up any new seats in QLD. They have nominated a 26 year old law student for the seat of Rankin, currently held by Labor on a 3% margin.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Liberal-Party-makes-fundraising-push/2007/09/25/1190486237053.html
“Mr Coulson’s candidacy was confirmed by the party’s state council on Sunday, bringing to 24 the number of seats being contested by the Liberals in Queensland.
He is studying a combined law and commerce degree at Griffith University but is taking time out to dedicate to the upcoming campaign.”
blindoptimist, what makes you think people believe Labor will make them better off in relation to the ‘hip-pocket issues’.
I see no evidence of this. In fact it makes more sense that a lay person would imagine they’d be better off under a Coalition government.
Also a 51-49 Coalition/ALP in WA could mean that they’ve just regained ground in their safer seats (eg. Fremantle, Perth, Brand) where they lost ground at the last election. I still think they could very well lose Cowan and not regain any of their lost seats.
That assertion on WA just does not make sense – it’s just way too out of line with other polling. Only one WA-specific poll this year hasn’t shown a swing of at least 4% to Labor in WA.
Quite frankly, I can’t believe that the swing could be restricted to only safe seats (and be reversed in Cowan). For instance, I’d find it highly unlikely that you’d get a big swing in Moore and Curtin and no swing in Stirling which they sandwich. It just doesn’t make sense.
If there’s a 4% swing, then Labor are going to win at least one of Hasluck or Stirling – I’ll grant uneven swings could see the Libs hang on by the skin of their teeth in one (akin to Labor in Swan last time around). But Labor winning both would seem more likely.
Yes, that’s certainly possible. However it apopears to be the best case scenario for the government, and they would have to improve considerably on recent published polling to get there.
The real reason Johnny won’t call an election is that he is bogged down in Bennelong. For the other 11 possible answers to the question “Why are we waiting?”, visit ‘Labor View from Broome” http://laborview.blobspot.com/
“I see no evidence of this. In fact it makes more sense that a lay person would imagine they’d be better off under a Coalition government.”
You have been posting to here for quite a while honey, how is it you as a professed labor supporter haven’t noticed interest rate rises and workchoices.
You speculation that lay people see themselves off as better with the coalition is classic Howard Battlers type stuff, have you got any evidence for this.
The libs doing well in WA makes no sense, the only suggestion that makes sense is Adam’s from his inside source. It would be a miracle if they retained Stirling on a 4% swing, that would mean that personal factors in a totally urban seat was beating more than 1% of swing.
Well again, yes, its seems/feels right to be cautious, of course – - but on all actual evidence you’d have to conlude that NOT winning 16+ seats would be the more remarkable achievement with primary voting intention seemingly stable around 46-41.
On the wider policy front, I do think the ALP should let it be known the 30% childcare rebate (now, surprise surpirse, upfront, and arrving in bank acounts this week) is to be kept.
But of course, a decent childcare availablity policy (intgrated with kinder so its 9-5 as well) would be be the main game.
Current system is an abysmal friggin joke. BBQ exploder.
John Hughes at $2 in canning to Randall’s $1.70 seems interesting to me, I was just popping in to see if I could get super value on John Huges and $2 is not super-value for a seat almost no-one expects to fall, might almost put money on Randall at 1.70.
Sportingbet now have Andrew Laming behind in Bowman for the first time. I wonder if something has happened – a whisper maybe.
8.9% margin and behind with the bookies? very odd.
Jasmine of course I have no evidence. However, just thinking it’s obvious to most people that they’re not better off under Howard because of interest rate rises and WorkChoices is a bit much.
Most lay people I know don’t even know what WorkChoices is. I had to explain it in very simple terms to my family. I just don’t believe people think they’ll be remarkably better off under Labor. Whilst people may no longer think interest rates will always be higher under a Labor government I’m not sure they conclude that they’ll ever be lower.
I think if you’ve spent much time in Cowan, an area I grew up in, you’ll know that there’s a lot of development in the area. This is an area where people are so snobby that they move one suburb over to be in more rarified company. I think their best hope of holding the seat is improving their unusually dismal vote from working class areas (eg. Girrawheen) at the last election. These are usually the Labor’s strongest areas and I was shocked at the results from these booths in ‘04.
As always, I think that being cautious is the best option for Labor supporters. WA is a state I wouldn’t be expecting too much from. I think if on election night we need to wait for WA to know the result we won’t be feeling too optimistic.
For those wondering why the Liberals are on the nose, you might think about Alex Hawke. He was one of the stars of the piece I linked to in an earlier thread, and he’s almost certainly going to be the new member for Mitchell. This is the 5th safest Liberal seat in the nation on a 19% margin.
This is the sort of politician who will help decide the future of the liberal party. I can’t imagine him willingly voting for anyone but the most hardened of right-wingers. I also can’t see this charge to the far right doing anything good for the liberal vote.
No, not happening, no worries there
. It is just the conservative press hyping this up as they want the hesitant or undecided Liberal voters to be scared into voting Liberal again. It is the old politics of fear which Howard is so experienced at using although this go round, he is getting his media stooges to play it out for him.
CTEP I agree with your last paragraph. I know the areas and surrounds you talk of very well.
I think you are completely wrong about workchoices and interest rate rises. Stirling I hold a little concern for, Cowan with KGB and Hasluck with Armadale and surrounds I have no concern for, so long as the swing to us is about 4%.
Remember under the proposed redistributions in the state lower house seats in the east metro region there is not one notionally liberal seat. Now I don’t want to translate state to federal, but I don’t believe any suggestion these people love Howard, nor are as completely stupid as your theory relies on them being.
But ask Adam I weird I’m a labor person who likes ordinary people and would love them to join ALP branches in droves.
Yes Jasmine, the area surprised me completely when it elected Judy Hughes as Member for Kingsley at the last state election. This area is, I think, the most worrying area for Labor in the Federal seat of Cowan. If they can convince these people to vote Labor federally they should be confident in holding the seat.
63
Call the election please Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
blindoptimist, what makes you think people believe Labor will make them better off in relation to the ‘hip-pocket issues’.
I see no evidence of this. In fact it makes more sense that a lay person would imagine they’d be better off under a Coalition government.
Also a 51-49 Coalition/ALP in WA could mean that they’ve just regained ground in their safer seats (eg. Fremantle, Perth, Brand) where they lost ground at the last election. I still think they could very well lose Cowan and not regain any of their lost seats.
……
Ctep,
The Libs sure hope that people see things the way you suggest. But the argument wears a bit thin in the end. Howard effectivey said he would keep rates down, but he hasn’t. He says to people that they are better off, but they know they’re not as well off as the statistics say they should be.
Howard is not as unpopular in WA as elsewhere, but nevertheless, 40% or more of people are dissatisfied with him. The reflex of these voters is to look elsewhere. This is Howard’s great problem: a lot of voters are fed up with him, including voters in WA. They are receptive to competing messages and are sceptical of Howard… for good reasons, really.
There is no sign of swing to the Liberals in WA and they are starting from a high base. Even significant moves in a few safe seats is not going to do much to alter the statewide distribution of votes. If the statewide 2PP vote is 49/51 in favour of the coalition, then there is a swing to Labor and you will find you’ve been whistling in the dark about Cowan, Stirling, Hasluck….
I did a chart showing Stirling’s deviation from the statewide and national swing at every election going back to 1955. It shows the deviation from the statewide swing has been less than 2 per cent at every election since the early 1970s. Given that the Liberal margin is 2.0 per cent, a 4 per cent swing in WA that failed to deliver Stirling to Labor would be almost a once-in-40-year event. As someone who knows the electorate all too well, I can say there are no obvious local or candidate factors that might suggest such a result.
The latest polling summaries are here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=686
Thanks William. That informaion certainly puts me more at ease! I just wish the election was over with already.
If those suburbs are Girrawheen (median income $740) and Warwick ($1158), that isn’t such a surprise.
66
Kevin Rennie Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
The real reason Johnny won’t call an election is that he is bogged down in Bennelong. For the other 11 possible answers to the question “Why are we waiting?â€, visit ‘Labor View from Broome†http://laborview.blobspot.com/
Thanks for the recommendation of the blog, though the correct URL, I believe, should be http://laborview.blogspot.com, unless you are interested in being redirected to the Paranoid Cyberpunk http://www.cyberpunk.cc/ .
77
William Bowe Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
If there’s a 4% swing, then Labor are going to win at least one of Hasluck or Stirling – I’ll grant uneven swings could see the Libs hang on by the skin of their teeth in one (akin to Labor in Swan last time around). I did a chart showing Stirling’s deviation fro..
……
William,
Your point is well-made. Stirling (and other WA seats) behave normally. The voters are normal, the results are predictable. If there is a swing away from Howard in WA, then Stirling will not be exempt. This is what you would expect.
Since the polls show a statewide swing away from Howard is likely, then this should manifest itself as a swing in Stirling, as well as other seats.
On this point, consider how improbable it is that Howard could achieve a swing in his favour, considering the already-high base vote he has, and the hip-pocket issues affecting voters in WA.
Ctep,
Relax and enjoy. You don’t get to experience the obliteration of Liberal governments very often. I can recall Gough’s win in 72 and rejoiced when Hawke won. This one, when it occurs, will be among the all-time best.
If you feel it is too much to bear, console yourself with the knowledge that every day of postponement by Howard will magnify the proportions of his inexorable and total defeat!
Like Jasmine I find the suggestion that there will be no swing or a much lesser swing in WA bizarre. I’d certainly want to see evidence for it other than op-eds in Murdoch papers. Anyone watching the rise in house prices in the Perth mortgage belt in the past few years must know that they are now very sensitive to interest rate rises. That can’t possibly help the government.
71 Call the election please Says: September 25th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
Anyone that works in the service industry, or retail, knows what WorkChoices is. And it’s all bad-news for them. Their wages are going backwards relative to inflation.
So as far as hip-pocket problems, that’s a whole lot of people, with a whole lot of empty hip-pockets.
Aristotle 78
Thanks for that analysis. Overall for the figures this year, it really is amazing how consistent they are. No sustained period of anything over Labor 57% 2PP or under Labor 56% 2PP in 9 months! In fact, the single biggest trend from year start to finish seems to be the solidifying of the Labor primary vote from 47% to 49%, meaning that if anything, as time has gone on the undecided camp have gone from preferencing Labor to voting for Labor. So calling it soon may be an exercise in damage control.
If Howard delays much longer I think this whole episode will make an admirable postscript to one of my favourite history books, The March to Folly by Barbara Touchman. Lesson: arrogant leaders can never admit they are wrong till its too late, often because they tend to surround themselves with people who tell them they are right when they are not.
As I said on Friday, my WA sources are extremely confident about Cowan, Swan and Hasluck, only a little less confident about Stirling, and 50/50ish about Canning (which is pretty amazing given Canning’s paper majority).
Re the Lib candidate in Rankin. It’s taken them long enough given the small Labor majority, but since it’s obvious there’s a Labor tsunami brewing in Brisbane they only need a token candidate.
The NSW Libs still have no candidates in Banks, Barton, Charlton, Cunningham, Grayndler, Newcastle, Reid, Shortland, Sydney, Watson or Werriwa. The Victorians still have no candidates in Batman or Scullin (tough gigs both of them). The NSW Liberal website still has not a word about any of their candidates. Of their NSW candidates, as far as I can find out, only Jim Tsolakis in Lowe has bothered creating his own website.
CTEP
Can i have a stab in dark and suggest your perhaps young enough to not have experienced much of the Hawke/Keating years as an adult?
I’m in the same boat, and the fact that i’ve never felt the winds of chnage brush against my cheek, is making me incredibly pessimistic about this election (i note you’ve said the Libs by 5 and 7….personally i’m at about 9 at the moment). People older than me have constantly told me that the ALP will win, but for the life of me i can’t being myself to believe it. Like a jilted lover, i want to believe, but deep down i’m just scared Australia will hurt me again….
My sister works in retail and doesn’t know what WorkChoices is. It’s not as simple as that. She lives in Curtin though so her votes not going to make a huge difference.
However, my dad lives in Forrest and his whole workplace are on AWAs that they despise. They have to work Saturdays/Sundays at no extra, they’ve lost their half-day Fridays etc. It’s definately not ‘flexible’ at all. I can only imagine how angry they must be watching the WorkChoices ads.
Brother, living in Brand, is on an AWA that says he can’t join a union, was definately given no choice in whether to sign it as he’s an apprentice.
I agree that people on AWAs will be very aware of WorkChoices, but I don’t think knowledge of it is that good for the majority of people who are not on AWAs.
Plans, yes; fabric swatches, no.
Spent an hour early this morning in Brisbane with a senior Liberal strategist. They are confident about the West – despondent about the rest of the country. There is no fifth term agenda. There is no sense of “governing”. The advertising dollars are mis-spent – they re-inforce perceptions of a tricky and calculating Government. As previously posted the election will be called on Sunday Oct7 or 14 – probably for Nov 24.
Brisbane Central candidates list is out:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/BrisbaneCentral2007/candidates.html
I have just had another look at the Western Australian leak story, and behind the nice paragraphs and bluster, there is the basic argument of Glen, with frankly less support than Glen gives it.
All the same tired arguments that are conjecture:
*AWA’s popular – do we have evidence for this or is it the only explanation for a 4% swing when the rest of the country is swinging much more.
*Burke smear – remember this backfired and increased labor’s lead only Glen and that journalist hold to the anti-burke swing theory.
* ‘liberal MP’s believe’ well tally ho to them.
Behind in Hasluck & Stirling …
What a freakin’ zoo! Hopefully Hawke spouts some of his views in his first parliamentary speech, and is forever marginalised.
Not surprising, there wasn’t much of a fourth term agenda.
If it wasn’t for the surprise Senate control that allowed them to cobble together Workchoices, then the govt would have not much to show for the last few years.
This year it’s been almost entirely reactive politics, or trying to be super-premier with half-assed nationalism…
Adam,
The Libs do have a candidate in Charlton. He was on local radio the other day talking about how he is not scared about taking on Combet. Sorry but I cannot remember his name.
“Fabric swatches”? Parliament House offices are standard issue and all furnishings are Parliament House standard. This is an absurd Liberal beatup. Of course Labor MP are increasingly confident about the election, and why wouldn’t they be? There’s a certain amount of sotto voce intriguing and negotiating about front-bench positions going on, but again, why would there not be? There’s certainly no overt hubris. I gather Caucus got a stern lecture about overconfidence at its meeting last week. I don’t think Rudd’s being hubristic. He has a naturally cocky disposition, it’s true, but he has not said a single word off-message about how tough the election will be. This is just another Murdoch press slander.
Are there supposed to be 1,000 new AWAs every day/week?
WorkChoices is the swiss-army knife negative issues for the Govt simply on the perceptions it projects;
Housing affordability – WC wont help you afford to buy
Mortgage stress – WC will make it harder to pay
Balancing the budget – WC will make it harder to raise a family
Kids and Grandkids – WC removes their rights, risks their future
Loss of balance – WC will remove unions, leaving all vulnerable
Confidence in your future – WC is only one part of their plan, WC2
WC Unfairness – What sort of govt subject people to unfairnes?
Thanks for the tip, Ben. He’s keeping a low profile, whoever he is. Neither Google nor Wikipedia can identify him. Perhaps it’s WorkingMan4Howard, who lives in Charlton. A pity William has necked him so we can’t find out.
Er, I was joking. ‘Fabric swatches’ just scanned better than the alternatives.
I know, I know.
Anyway, I’m with Lefty E. All you ALP members and campaigners should be working like you’re 10 points behind.
We, on the other hand, will happily sink the boot in while the Libs are down
CTEP @ 89 – it’s not just people on AWAs who know about them. If you have had second-hand experience through a close relative or friend then you can still have an understanding of how big an impact an unfavourable AWA can have on your life and the lives of those around you.
And that’s the problem for Howard and co: despite all the banging on about “Fairness Tests”, most people know of someone – or have heard a story about someone – who has been severely disadvantaged by the OLD IR LAWS (ie pre-Fairness Test) and can’t do anything about it.
The Business Council ads are very quick to trump the amount of AWAs signed as proof that people want them, but I would like to know exactly how many of them are Mark 1 AWAs, rather than the new “improved” model. The problem is that no one can tell us for sure – the Government won’t release the figures.
I wonder why?
CTEP 89 et al RE Knowledge of AWAs
Didn’t the ACTU release some sort of (unbiased i’m sure) survey suggesting that 40% of Australian workers acknowledged they had been negtively effected by workchoices?
Tony Abbott trying to drum up perceptions of labor hubris:
“This is a Labor opposition with smugness and complacency written all over their faces”
Coming from a man who was born with a permanent smirk on his face…
This won’t go down well for Howard.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22479718-5005361,00.html
By the way, at last count, were *any* actors in the pro-workchoices ads not convicted criminals, or persons under under investigation by the workplace authority?
Just curious.
No Lefty, but their convictioins are just part of their ‘method acting’.
The Liberals want you to think that the ALP is bragging. It is only what the Liberals are putting around. Like everything else they say take it with a grain of salt. The Liberals are very very desperate. Every thing they do a the moment is to make the ALP look bad. There is no evidence that this is correct.
For the liberals to have a successful full of hubris type attack on labar don’t they need to admit they are going to lose. The whole we are still winning look they said that in the Australian plus saying at the same time it is so obvious they are going to lose the other side is getting cocky – just doesn’t work.
I’m very happy the arrogance of this Government is so deep they can’t admit they are going to lose, in order to minimise labor’s gain. They are running two incompatible campaigns simultaneously.
Bit like Turnbull yesterday, but am I right on late line his whole ‘Peter will be leader after Howard’ was ONLY IF THE LIBS win. If the libs lose and Turnbull is in the house he will try and blame costello for the loss and take over; maybe not straight away but he will.
Lefty, does the head of the workplace authority count as an actor? As far as I know, she’s not been convicted of anything yet. “Wasting taxpayer money” is regrettably not a crime.
Will the new drought package need to go through Parliament?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/drought/drought-aids-1b-boost/2007/09/25/1190486290284.html
Will it sit in October to pass it?
Frank at 104 – I was thinking exactly the same thing when I saw it on the ABC news feed.If that turns out to be like it looks, it’ll have legs and all of it bad for the Coalition.
there’s list of Lib candidates in many electorates in the Oz today, but I can’t find it on line.
It annoys me the way Howard trumpets the announcement of the National Health and Medical Research Grants as the “outcome of a major funding round provided in the last budget for research beginning next year.” He then goes on to say: “You couldn’t do it if you were paying off debt. The fact that we’re not paying off debt [means] we’ve got $8-9 billion a year in saved interest that we can spend on good things like medical research.”
This is horse manure. As someone who works in research, this is the same grant program that has been funded since at least the Fraser government, and in some form for many years before that ! To say that interest savings are paying for this research money is scandalous.
Ah Bob, the true battler’s PM, is out and about making sure Labor gets over the line this time. He is also stating Labor isn’t cocky.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/25/2043068.htm?section=justin
This raises a question, will we see Keating and Whitlam make appearances or are they considered a risk? I know on the other side of politics they won’t want Fraser helping, because he isn’t so liked in the New Order.
114,
The way that Fraser has trashed Howard over the years, you half wonder if he will come out and campaign for Rudd?
……
Prime Minister John Howard has ruled out calling an election this weekend.
Mr Howard told reporters in Sydney that he will be attending both the AFL and NRL grand finals.
Mr Howard was asked if he planned to call the election this weekend………………………..That should send the “Booing” meter of the scale.
I agree, if Fraser were to campaign, it wouldn’t be for Howard.
I doubt the coalition would get a primary vote above 20% combining all Port and Geelong supporters …
I don’t think Fraser will Rudd, but it wouldn’t surprise me. He detests Howard by all accounts. Gough, Bob and Paul, on the other hand, are Labor demigods and will be campaigning as asked, although’s Gough’s not very mobile these days. (A lot more mobile than I’ll be at 91, no doubt.) Bob has been working hard in WA where is still very popular. There’s also a Bob speech in Bennelong on YouTube.
I was with the faithful brothers and sisters very recently and Bob is loved with a passion.
Time for Howard to dig up the bones of his great hero Pig Iron Bob, lord knows he could do with all the help he can get.
119,
Wouldn’t that be a treat to see Fraser and Whitlam campaigning together for Rudd?
we can live and hope ……
Adam, do you think Keating is a plus or minus for Labor in the electorate? I know Hawke/Keating did a lot for the country, but the dying days of the Keating era wasn’t the best. Federal Labor probably has done itself a disservice in distancing itself from Keating and his reforms, but it seems now they’re saying it was the work of Labor and the reforms in the 80’s and early 90’s that has given us this long term prosperity. I’m sure Keating would love to give one final blow to Howard, but I think people will see Keating as a liability. In my opinion, Hawke and Whitlam aren’t a problem.
The Workchoices ads are a really poor idea. They don’t soften the perception of the legislation in the public eye, they just remind the public of the issue.
If the Libs stopped talking about this 2 year old issue there’s at least some chance that some voters might forget or move on, particularly in the barrage of election related promises, threats, wishlists, inquiries, scare campaigns and defamation (not to mention the odd policy announcement) that is about to descend on us.
Constantly reminding us of the existence of the legislation doesn’t do the coalition any favours, and weakens their own scare campaign regarding the number of unionists in the federal ALP caucus and front bench…
I’m pretty sure with a bit of assitance from a Menizes sound a like and digital manipulation of old footage anything’s possible
What is wrong with union members again?
More problems for the Minister for Horse Flu in Qld.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22480125-5005361,00.html
Fagin, Howard could be in for a shock if he resurrected Menzies, he might be told he has wrecked the party and has forgotten it’s values. Perhaps he should dig up the bones of Churchill, at least they share something in common, a name.
South Australian pony clubs have moved to cancel all events until the end of the year to help ensure the state stays free of equine influenza.
The Pony Club Association, which includes 62 local clubs and about 1,600 riding members, said the decision followed a briefing by primary industries officials.
hmm….If I was running the campaign for Rudd, I’d offer the Libs unlimited free Mark Latham time if we could borrow Malcolm Fraser for a speech or two. You could put Gough and Malcolm on a stage together and they could talk about the higher things in life – about the greater good of the people and the pointlessness of trying to hang on to power for its own sake. They are very well qualified to speak on these topics.
The way to negate the anti – union rhetoric (if it indeed needs counteracting) is to put a face on the average unionist, the family man/woman, trying to make ends meet. Then ask, are these the people you are afraid of Mr Howard? Are these the people who are going to bring the country to its knees? It would do two things – soften the union image and put the Libs on the back foot by having to defend their criticism of the average working person.
Matthew Sykes from 113 notes The Rodent squeaking :
“You couldn’t do it if you were paying off debt. The fact that we’re not paying off debt [means] we’ve got $8-9 billion a year in saved interest that we can spend on good things like medical research.â€
MS, you don’t appear to be a very suitable candidate for Aspirational Nationalism (my, havn’t they been quiet about that lemon lately). All this talk about Bennelong John Howard and “horse manure”. One must appear GRATEFUL at Prime Minister’s largesse when he re-distributes our very own taxation revenues while simultaneously reminding us that as “saved interest” accrued, a nation’s sacrifices under SerfChoices were not in vain.
It’s not that King Kirribilli Coconut expects you to grovel or eat dirt or anything like that. A doff of the cap or twirl of the forelock will do just fine. Oh, yes, there’s a good chap then, if you wouldn’t mind, a vote for the Coalition would be as good as doing your duty.
I think it would be a big mistake to use Keating & Whitlam in this campaign.
The electorate wasn’t too kind to either when they lost power. Both these men gave us the biggest losses in post war Australia.
I think Kevin Rudd needs to be his own man.
If he is looking for support then the State Premiers should be playing a role.
I can’t understand for the life of me why Bracks and Beattie didn’t hold out until after the election. Both hugely popular, both media savvy and both were really putting a dint in Howard’s “non campaign”.
It could come back to haunt us
Can’t remember the exact title exactly but I read in a newspaper recently that only 7% of mining contracts are under WC….. So that probably means that the West’s share of WC is actually lower than people believe.
There’s also a strange double think here.
All awards and all contracts have always allowed bosses to pay MORE than the award rate – so why should WC make any difference at all?
I was around when Fraser was thrown out. One of the hot button issues was to prevent the Franklin from being dammed. I cannot remember the Liberals being anywhere as devious as they are now. Maybe someone else has a clearer memory of this time.
I think it’s already been negated. The only people whining about Unions are dyed in the wool Howard lovers. I haven’t heard a peep from anyone else. Complaining about Unions taking over is like trying to warn people that dinosaurs will rule the earth again. It’s a dead issue to most people.
M. Sykes @113
Sounds right. Classic Howard fudging and fiddling. Deserves wider distribution. Pin it down and spray it everywhere. He must not be allowed to get away with stuff like this.
Gary Bruce
That’s brilliant! Ordinary union folk making a crust. Hardly scary. Heart-warming, really. This has legs …
WorkChoices the legislation that just keeps giving.
QUEENSLAND’S workplace ombudsman is investigating the sacking of a Cairns receptionist two months before she was due to take long-service leave.
The woman was dismissed for reasons of misconduct, reportedly two months prior to her taking her 10-year long-service leave believed to be worth about $6000.
The unfair dismissal laws that would usually come into effect in such cases may have been negated due to the reasons for the sacking and the fact the company employs fewer than 100 employers.
#123
Yes I agree Will. For some reason I never quite understood, many people failed to see Keating’s essentially modest, warm and loveable personality, and formed the bizarre idea that he was arrogant and out of touch. Even after 11 years of his successor, this view may linger in some quarters, so it’s probably not better to expose him too much in the marginals. He’s great for revving up the faithful in the safe seats, however. The Libs would kill for a warm-up speaker like Keating. No, Menzies wouldn’t do – he would be horrified at the way Howard has trashed federalism. The Libs will have go back to Stanley Bruce to find a Tory leader to their taste. And we know what happened to him…
On Liberal tactics in 1983 compared to 2007 – they’ve had more than 20 years coaching from the Republicans in the black arts of lying and cheating your way into office since then. What we’re seeing now is pure Karl Rove.
John Howard might well call the election next Monday 1st October which would give him the minimum days for November 3rd. It would be a short sharp election in that case.
It wouldn’t be a good omen however to call the election on Labour Day!
It does look as though he’s going past November 3rd. He may be taking that risk of an interest rate increase. Bit like Russian roulette.
In that case he might as well go for November 24th.
The longer he delays the more it will look like he is clinging to power desperately hoping the polls will turn his way.
The polls might even start turning worse if the pressure mounts.
He’s staying beyond his allotted three years.
Not a single poll is favouring him yet, not even close.
It seems to me he is just savouring his last days in office. Deep down he knows his days are numbered one way or the other.
Even if he wins, which would be by the skin of his teeth, there would be immense pressure to step down quickly.
He reminds me of a condemned man slowly eating his last meal.
This may have been discussed somewhere already, but what do people make of Sol Lebovic’s comments last night on Lateline?
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2042147.htm
He seems to disbelieve his own polling. Sure, the polling may be beyond Laor’s wildest dreams, but given the consistency of the polling for the past 6 months, is Sol to be taken seriously?
The biggest post-war election loss was Caldwell lossing to Holt in 1966 43.1 to 56.9.
I agree Adam. I’ve met Paul Keating, Bob Hawke and met Malcolm Fraser several times, negotiating on the whales. He struck me as a very warm person but exceedingly shy. He certainly did the right thing on the whales.
All three of these are engaging personalities. Of all recent PMs Gough Whitlam beats them all. I spent an hour in his office with him in William Street a couple of years ago and I just wish I had recorded it. He was just amazing. He gave me a detailed history of everything, complete with jokes and extraordinary anecdotes. I left with my head reeling. No doubt many others have had a similar experience. I can’t imagine an hour with John Howard would produce the same result.
I would rather have 48 % of people saying they will give me their first vote than 40%.I cannot see what issue the Libs/Nats could use to win back all those votes.Union bosses invading every workplace scare tactics aren’t doing it.
Dump Howard maybe ?………….
The uglies have been trying to drum Fraser out of the liberal party for years now. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he did speak out during the election campaign – the temptation must be high.
How much of the Liberal party’s change since 1983 is due to the NSW Uglies, though? It’s gotta be a fair amount. I’m sure 4 Corners did something on them… ah, here tis.
“Sol Lebovic said the polls are contradictory because while they all show numbers with a crushing lead for Labor, many voters won’t in fact make up their minds until the last two weeks of the campaign.”
The polls are not contradictory at all. They have been saying the same thing with total uniformity all year: Labor will win. Against this fact Lebovic places his opinion that Labor’s vote is soft because, apparently, people don’t mean what they say, or will change their minds in the week before the election, or something. OK, Lebovic’s been around a long time and does know what he is talking about with polls. But this seems to be a weak argument to me, unsupported by evidence. Elections do not always do not tighten up during the campaign. He may be right, but it may also be the case that this time the voters have made up their minds and won’t change.
As far as Sol’s piece from Lateline, well, the link doesn’t give the full details of his speech, but there’s no indication that it’s based on anything more than fuzzy feelings.
I don’t trust his “10% make up their mind at the last minute”, either. If that was the case, the polls should show much higher swings in the last week than they do. I guess it’s possible that people who make up their minds in this way end up in roughly the same voting pattern as everyone else… but it’s also possible that the people who told him that were fooling only themselves. It looks like a podcast of the speeches is available at http://www.thesydneyinstitutepodcast.com/web/index.asp if you want to get the full content.
Richard Jones 141
October 1st is not Labour Day in WA.
Does this tell us anything?
It’s Betty Windsor’s Birthday (one of many)
It’s also the start of School Holidays and Show Week.
Latest Sportingbet odds:
Labor now favourite to win La Trobe
Boothby: Nicole Corns is now level pegging with Andrew Southcott on 1.85.
Richard Jones #141
There is one huge problem with calling it on Monday 1 October for 3 November. All the writs would have to be signed that day, including the six Senate writs that need to be signed by the State Governors. If any one of them were not issued on Monday, that election couldn’t be held on 3 November. If it is going to be called next Monday, we will know at the start of the weekend as the government would have to be absolutely sure where all the state Governors are on the Monday to guarantee the writs are signed. That means the state governments would know the election is about to be called and there would be no surprise on the Monday, only a lot of logistical difficulties as the writs are ferried around. Getting a writ signed is not like getting a letter signed, there’s a pile of legal and protocol tick-off points to get through.
Howard will call it on Sunday October 7 for November 17 or 24: my prediction.
And of course the premiers would be within their constitutional rights to advise the governors to spend a day or two thinking about signing the writs, thus giving all those unenrolled voters time to get on the rolls.
On alleged Labor “cockiness”…
One would have thought this kind of attack would be shrugged off by a majority of voters with the simple thought: “Well, why not? I’m voting for them, and so are most of my mates…”
According to the AEC, 13.5 million people are already enrolled to vote – they have exceeded their target by 100,000.
Isn’t there an ASEAN meeting 18-22 Nov… meaning Nov 24 wouldn’t be so good after all?
Rough summary of Sol’s talk (he starts 20m into the podcast and talks for about 10-12m):
- Voters don’t care about the Left/Right divide. Voters want an alternative to Coalition and ALP. People are cynical about politics – a majority of voters vote against a party instead of for a party. [ed: oo, me!]
- Voters are less rusted-on, less tribal.
- Apparently the system is broken, and this is partly why the ALP vote is so high [ed: wtf?]
- It’s all about personality. Voters will decide based on which leader will make Australia a better place to live.
- Current voting levels would be a record swing.
- I really believe the polls are giving us contradictory evidence.
- Rudd leads on voting intention, but Howard leads on economic management. This means that the ALP lead is soft.
- This is why this is not 1996.
- In 2001 and 2004 Howard was unpopular and came back. He hasn’t done that this year. [ed: 9/11 & Tampa, and the Latham effect don't get mentioned]
- Maybe the stability of the polling numbers are because people aren’t thinking about who they’ll vote for yet. [ed: if I was a teacher, I'd say "please show work"]
- 25% of voters decide during the last week, 10% decide on the last day. [ed: As I said earlier, I don't believe this number]
I’m deeply, deeply unimpressed with his argument. He’s based his conclusion on 2 things: people mark Howard higher for economic management, yet it’s all about the personality/presidential style elections; and the vote’s been remarkably consistent all year which means people haven’t made up their mind.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22480760-5005961,00.html
It’s important that Howard is seen as able to win Bennelong (hence this story, and any others like it).
If Howard is thought by just a few per cent – Howard supporters but not necessarily Liberal supporters – to be losing his own seat, then they will vote Labor, if only to stop Costello (or worse).
Sol is full of the proverbial.
Do I recall correctly that Keating had better economic management readings than Hward in 96?
Also saw McCrann’s attempted savaging of Rudd in the Hun. Apparently, a vote for Rudd is a vote for destruction of the mining industry! What a crock from “Australia’s leading business journalist”.
Yes, I wish someone, somewhere, I don’t care who, would please explain this one.
Another peeve of mine is this reference to “union bosses”. That’s an incorrect term, designed to denigrate the movement. No-one likes to be “bossed” around, and that’s what this label implies.
New online poll in the GG.
How much influence do you think unions would have over a Labor government?
All encompassing
Considerable
Some
None
Undecided
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
This is a real chance to mess with the minds of the Lib hacks at the GG and their masters at Lib Headquarters.
Just a little observation about the 105% (ok 10% – 25%) of voters Newspoll is sure chose in the last seconds in the campaign proper.
I have a few observations on this:
* Firstly for Howard to take a lot of comfort this proportion must come out of the Labor vote as the polls show. The only evidence they have (unless they are furry and I make a habit of not disagreeing with very smart fluffy creatures) it seems to me is labor vote is high this has got to be wrong. So I’m not even sure we get off base one.
* Secondly even if the late deciders are all coming off labor (that is the labor vote as polled all year) when they do the ‘late decide thing’ Howard has to stop them coming back to labor.
This seems to presume when pushed for an answer to the polling they are all saying labor now but there is something that will make them say liberal just around the corner at the real election.
This itself seems to assume they are not deciding randomly, or on the basis of who is the pretiest girl with a HTV but on a considered basis, or a subconscious basis that must favor Howard significantly. I guess the ‘like the direction we are going’ only take a massive leap to assume they’ll all vote with the Howard they know. But this boils down to the lying to the pollsters for a bit of fun theorem.
So if they are coming off the polling all year numbers 50:50 Howard has to get a much larger proprotion of them landing on his side. This doesn’t seem any more likely than all the undecideds saying one thing now and another later at the real poll.
With being a numbers girl, doesn’t this all boil down to Howard needing something to blast hearts and minds back in his direction, when that is EXACTLY what he has been trying to do all year without success.
Is it just that the polling is too good for labor, and nobody likes to believe it?
100% “none” in my postcode…..hehehehe
I must be the first in my postcode to vote.
100% – None.
The overall figures currently aren’t getting the response that they would be expecting, IMO.
All encompassing + considerable = 38% Another poll showing the Libs primary vote.
jasmine, I’m inclined to agree with you that because no one’s seen anything like this before, and it really is unprecedented in terms of the size of the gap in primary, TPP & the relative stability over an extended period of time, that people such as Sol baby are just plucking idiotic hypotheses out of what, the “unknown unknowns”, the Twilight Zone of psephology?
100% – none in my postcode. giggle.
“Why sm I so slow?” Dept:
[Stabs self in head with screwdriver... before expiring writes post...]
Just listening to Brendan Nelson on PM. He’s talking about a new iniative to tighten up ADF stocktaking. Example: those missing rocket launchers.
This explains the APEC security overkill.
Just imagine, for a moment, that Bush was attacked with a rocket launcher stolen from the ADF several months before.
Just imagine it.
Then imagine it again.
This wouldn’t have been merely egg on the face. It would have been the whole chicken coop… Foghorn Leghorn, Miss Prissy, the dog and Chickenhawk himself.
No wonder they spent $300 million on security.
It’s actually a wonder they didn’t spend a billion.
Looks like Bob Hawke is Rudd’s secret weapon to undermine Howard’s campaign demonising the Unions. Matt Price reports from WA.
{YOU had to see it to believe it. On a bleak day in Perth, 500 people crammed into a suburban hall to be utterly mesmerised by an old master.
As you’d imagine, it was a speech of modest understatement. The former ACTU boss thought the Government’s demonisation of trade unions “the worst misrepresentation in the history of Australian politicsâ€.
The quadruple election-winning PM feels entirely comfortable buying into industrial relations issues because “I can talk about this with more authority than anyone in Australiaâ€.
His were “facts, not opinionsâ€, especially when it came to demolishing the Coalition’s credentials on economic management and national security (”these myths, these lies”).
As to the 15-year-long boom, “they had nothing to do with itâ€, stormed Hawke. “Howard and Costello inherited changes we made that they didn’t have the guts to make.†}
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mattprice/index.php/theaustralian/comments/hawke_swoops_to_hold_crowd_spellbound/
The ACTU might be able to cut back some on their anti-Workchoices adds.
Bushfire: Excellent point. The Coalition is just paranoid enough to believe the stolen launchers would have been used for a terrorist attack during APEC. Even though they might very well have been smuggled out of the country.
The correct answer is “considerable.” There’s no point in being coy about that – in a Labor government the unions get a big say. However, “considerable” does not mean “decisive,” nor does it mean “unanimous,” and it does not necessarily mean “detrimental,” although sometimes it does.
And where is the question, “how much influence does business, and particularly the carbon lobby, have on a Liberal government?” Hmm? The answer is again “considerable,” but not always decisive. In the case of WorkChoices, however, it was decisive, and we are now seeing the political consequences of that influence.
Reminds me of the distinction between eroticism and pornography.
Eroticism is the feather.
Pornography is the whole chicken!
The ‘hubris’ stuff is a ridiculous beat up. I’ve emailed Matt Price suggesting that as he was quick to label Rudd a squealer last week, the piercing squeals emanating today from Coonan, Abbott (and the appalling Penberthy) are worthy of similar treatment. But I’m not holding my breath.
Adam business SHOULD have an infleuence on any governement. Because without business there are no jobs, workers, unions, governement ummm and of course Australia! In reality the unions owe business more than they owe the ALP.
But after the election we could well have an anti-business government with a VERY anti-business deputy PM.
I voted “Some”. 100% in my electorate (Berowra… Ruddock’s Range)
Did anyone else notice that Matt Price referred to Bob Hawke as an ex-ACTU Boss and not a 4 times winning Labor Prime Minister.
Price must be doing his little bit to demonise Unions to help out Howard.
Adam, I don’t think any of us, although perhaps I’m being a bit presumptuous here, think the correct answer is none. It’s just fun to mess with the GG. They, imo, with the notable exceptions of George M and Mike S, deserve as much misinformation dished back at them as they disseminate and I’m happy to oblige.
Thommo:
Julia might be left wing, but she’s not anti-business. And neither is Kevin Rudd. Our current government has marginalised the unions and given business everything it wants. We aren’t going to have an anti-business government under Labor, we’re going to have a better balance between businesses, unions and the workers. Without the workers, there can be no business.
Snapper, fair enough.
I used to think Matt Price was a partial exception to the “all Murdoch journalists are paid liars” rule, but I gather I will have to revise this view (I am relying on hearsay since of course I am not reading any Murdoch publication until after the election.)
I’m with Monica on this, because it’s a setup for tomorrow mornings headlines. We all know online polls like this can be hijacked, but that won’t stop the GG for saying 98% people believe unions will have considerable or more control over a Rudd government. It will be all over Sunrise and Sky News in the morning. This is one poll where misinformation due to hijacking will come from both sides.
“None” is running at 27% – that’s quite funny.
Government is constituted by people, not by business. There are some countries where government is constituted from business, but they are not democracies.
Exactly. John Hewson said he wanted to support a modified version of the 1993 Native Title bill, but big business had such an influence on the Liberals that he wasn’t allowed to.
none in my post code and in Wakefield my seat.
None in mine either, and I’m in Port Adelaide. This poll is dated 14 July; is it just going to keep running until the election?
I loved these short comments on Price’s Blog about Hawke.
{If Hawke were leading Labor now, with WorkChoices the big issue it is, Labor would probably be leading 110 to minus 10 on the two-party-preferred vote. }
{I’d still vote for him. }
{History is judging Bob Hawke well. It will not do the same for the rodent. It is probably not right to even the compare the two men but obviously one oozes charisma, peronality, and heart. The other is just a shrivelled up, suburban lawyer who is afraid of his own shadow. }
{Poor fellow my country. We have become so serious since 1983, when Hawkie declared that, “any boss who sacks anyone for not turning up today is a bumâ€.}
Could you just imagine a head to head run-off between Howard and Hawke. The old Silver Bodgie would destroy him.
Scorpio, certainly did notice Matt Price’s description of Bob Hawke and a good deal more besides if you look at his pieces over the last couple of weeks. He’s let the mask slip. Thommo, you are exceptionally ill informed about how a Labor gov’t led by Rudd would behave in relation to business. For starters, his wife runs a very successful business, you twit. For seconds, Julia Guillard was a successful lawyer in a successful law firm before going into politics. Both Bill Shorten and Greg Combet are very well regarded by business, though the Hardie Group may well be less enthusiastic about Combet.
You can bet The Australian intent to use this poll to write up a story about Unions controlling govt as the used their last poll to make a story.
So better get there and start voting none.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Re States
last election Labor got a very poor vote in WA ,QLD & SA
and NSW was very similar to 1996
If the opinion polls are even partlly right I would expect a close to 50%
2pp at least in all those states which would I think would
deliver a change of Government…..
Scorpio @163
Done that. 100% in my electorate. Messing with minds is … good. Does the GG publish anything from these silly polls? Surely it’s just rubbish designed to give political beasties some sense of involvement in the MSM. Real voters wouldn’t give a tinker’s curse.
188
Monica Lynagh aka Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs Says:
Price has more than “let the mask slip” in my opinion, Monica.
His Blog was the first Blog that I regularly visited and in the earlier stages I found it reasonably balanced and eliciting a good range of comments. It was both entertaining and enlightening.
Unfortunately for Matt, he has gone backwards in a similar vein to a number of his News Ltd collegues. Tim Dunlop excepted. Tim’s Blog is what Matt Price’s used to be and is excellent.
147
Adam Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 5:56 pm
“Sol Lebovic said the polls are contradictory because while they all show numbers with a crushing lead for Labor, many voters won’t in fact make up their minds until the last two weeks of the campaign.â€
The polls are not contradictory at all. They have been saying the same thing with total uniformity all year: Labor will win. Against this fact Lebovic places his opinion…..
….
Adam, I agree with you. I think people who postulate the ’soft-labor-voter’ position overlook something that stares everyone in the face: Howard is not popular. His dissatisfaction rankings have been consistently high for a very long time. Voters have not only been attracted to Rudd, they have rejected Howard. In fact, voters were leaving Howard before Rudd became Labor leader. You can say that there is essential preconditon for voters to rally to Rudd: first they must leave Howard. This precondition has been satisfied for many many people and has been sustained for a couple of years.
Saying that voters’ support for Labor is ’soft’ is really another way of saying their rejection of Howard is ’soft.’ There is no evidence to support the first contention and the second is clearly completely wrong. Howard’s decline illustrates the sense of the old saw: familiarity breeds contempt. People see right through Howard these days and he is finding he cannot call them back to his redoubt.
As well, the Liberals have made the mistake of comparing their situation to Keating’s in 1993, saying there is no tangible wellspring of anger in the electorate. Well that’s true, but so what? It is possible to feel motivated to change your vote without feeling enraged.
Rudd has homed in on this: a lot of people want a change in the conduct, themes, policies and values that pass for politics in this country. A lot of these people are one-time Howard voters who have crossed the divide and actually like the prospects. They are getting used to the idea of change and enjoying it.
For Lebovic to be proved correct, very large numbers of people are going to have to decide that they made two mistakes: one about Howard and one about Rudd. Trouble is, a lot of these people are now practically allergic to Howard’s policies and personality. Given this, they may not even going to get around to reconsidering their views about Rudd.
You will have to allow cookies but clear cookies after each vote and refresh page.
John Valder has kicked off his anti-Howard campaign. According to Column 8 SMH today, he was handing out packets of peppermints emblazoned with a cartoon of JWH with the label “National EmbarrassMINTS” at Edgecliff station. He will be coming to an electorate near you soon!
{Does the GG publish anything from these silly polls? }
Derek, yes the GG often plays up the results of their online polls, but only if they fit the ability to be spun into a good news item for the Government in the next day’s issue.
If the responses don’t measure up or are too one-sided to Labor, they just delete the results.
for firefox that is.
Sorry. It was in Stay in Touch.
http://blogs.smh.com.au/sit/
To give Price his due he wrote ACTU boss when Hawk spoke on unions. He then wrote quadruple election winning pm.
Adam, thank you for your reply. I am most concerned about how the MSM portray what is happening both domestically and internationally as I seriously think we, meaning all of us who currently inhabit the planet, and our children, are in for very nasty times, both economically and ecologically. If Labor gets in, as I think it will, the GG notwithstanding, then I think they will be faced with problems that have never before faced a Federal Government. The credit problem, the effect of climate change on the Australian continent, food production, water, the changing international situation vis a vis Russia, China and so on, are going to require some very astute thinking. That a successful Labor governent should have to deal with the likes of Matt Price as commentator just gives me the (fill in whatever).
103
Milkman Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Tony Abbott trying to drum up perceptions of labor hubris:
“This is a Labor opposition with smugness and complacency written all over their facesâ€
Coming from a man who was born with a permanent smirk on his face…
……
And from a man who, when comparing the Feds to State Governemnts, described himself as being one the First Eleven of Australian Government. That sounded really good in WA. Liberals from NSW would do well to remember that this is still a federation.
Saying that voters’ support for Labor is ’soft’ is really another way of saying their rejection of Howard is ’soft.’
Actually, I think that the pundits (and certain politicians) have shown great contempt for the voters, and have assumed that the polls simply reflect that voters like Rudd’s haircut better than Howard’s, or something like that.
The pundits have yet to consider the possibility that the polls reflect a clear rejection – not merely of Howard, but of specific Liberal policies. Those people who think putting a fresh face (such as Costello, or Turnbull) on the same poisonous policies obviously don’t have much faith in the average voter’s intelligence.
blindoptimist: If Abbott has a permanent smirk, we need a new word to describe Costello
203
anthony baxter Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 8:12 pm
blindoptimist: If Abbott has a permanent smirk, we need a new word to describe Costello..
……
yup ‘permanent smirk and temporary help’…sounds good to me
Under the “Wok Faces” legislation
I just reread Michelle Grattan’s article of today in TheAge. I missed this line the first time I read it – “The PM’s disapproval exceeds his approval — 49-43 per cent.”
Now come on, no matter what party you hang your hat with, NO one can find a good reason to reelect someone who has more people disliking hiim than liking him
…… another reason the Libs goose is cooked to a crisp 
.
Yes Blindoptimist
” … a lot of people want a change in the conduct, themes, policies and values that pass for politics in this country. ”
It’s not just the big-ticket items like WorkChoices, it’s a build-up of grey areas, the subleties of good governance. Once was, Australia had a decent name around the world. Fair. That has been demeaned by Howard and his blinkered view of world affairs. It will take decades to repair.
I’ve never bought into this soft labor vote nonsense. Surely a better predictor of voter softness is the volatility of the primary vote rather than some of the half-arsed questions that get asked.
I see a few references to “MSM” here. Can someone please tell me what it is.
MSM = Mainstream Media
And the Labor Primary voting indicator has been rock solid all year at around 46-50%.The Coalition would sell their mothers for numbers like that.
Chris Curtis, it means Main Stream Media, MSM.
currently msm = mean sickening ministers
The latest numbers in that Oz Poll are:
All Encompassing: 17%
Considerable: 12%
Some: 32%
None: 38%
U/D: ~1%
If these numbers hold up, I assume that if the Oz were to use this poll as a story, its lede would read:
“MORE THAN 60% of Australians have expressed concern that a Rudd Labor Government would be dictated to by unions, according to an exclusive poll in The Australian.”
I should have bookmarked the reference, but that is pretty much how they spun a recent poll which on any normal reading would have indicated that few people gave Costello credit for the strength of the economy. In the alchemist hands of the Oz hacks, Costello’s faithful remnant became a solid block of support.
“Unfortunately for Matt, he has gone backwards in a similar vein to a number of his News Ltd collegues.”
Matt’s last few articles have been a disgrace, especially the last two, which were nothing but angered rants about Rudd.
This latest one is OK-ish, but the bitterness towards anything Labor is almost palpable. I noticed that comments on today’s blog were stopped at noon. I think the glowing comments about Hawke were just too much for Matt to bear (and probably the rest of the Government Gazette).
To his credit, Matt tried his best to be relatively impartial for a while, but as the realisation that Labor might win this election has started to sink in, I sense that Matt has panicked, and is now doing his best to give Howard a leg-up.
But of course, it means that Matt has now smashed what credibility and respect he did have, so he is the ultimate loser.
A poll of registered users of Fairfax media showed Labor holding a 57 to 43 per cent lead.
Has anyone got any more information on this Fairfax online poll. It appears to be closely following the other polling figures but I don’t know what questions were asked or the results.
Interestingly, not much has been made of this fact, but I think today’s poll showed that the much-demonised Julia Gillard would be a more popular PM than Costello at the present time. This doesn’t say much for the vaunted ‘team’.
I’d put up Captain Smirk and Eary Smirk. Or Smirk mit Ears. Or variations. Whatever, it’s eerie. Do they go to smirk school?
This is unworthy. But only too willing to help.
“I’ve never bought into this soft labor vote nonsense.”
The supposedly “soft” vote is the occasional swing we see towards 60%. Given that Labor’s 2PP vote hasn’t really dipped below 55% all year (just a couple of very slight exceptions), the most plausible scenario is that it is a very strong vote up to 55 and soft above that.
I suspect that people like Sol do have a better idea about what is going on but when he appeared on Lateline, his audience wasn’t you and I or the general public. I suspect he was really directing his comments to the government, trying to boost morale and give them some sense of hope. It was motivational spin.
And I don’t think it is a bad thing. If people think that there is still a good chance that the government will be returned, it will only harden their resolve to get rid of them.
In social science circles MSM stands for “men who have sex with men.” I’ve been laughing about that all year.
On a slightly unrelated matter, I just received some government horse shit in the mail about internet censorship. That issue was only current, what, about ten years ago? There is even a glossary in the back of the booklet explaining terms such as “operating system” and “anti virus software.” Just goes to show how out of touch this government is, and the polls truly reflect this. Lol, to borrow a Simpsons quote – “the internet is on computers now?”
Thank you, Kiwipundit and Monica…and Adam.
Sols off with the fairies.
CT told us the soft vote was 5% for each party. Newspoll told us the soft vote was 10% and 11% for each party. The following two graphs pretty much explain why.
(I’ll split this over two posts so I don’t get antispaminated by Williams electronic bouncers)
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2007/09/forpollbludger1.jpg
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2007/09/forpollbludger2.jpg
Please notice what happened after the Tampa period – the relationships shown here dramatically altered and permanently changed.
The first graph shows the PM dissatisfaction/Opposition primary vote relationship. Sol reckons the ALP vote is soft because the ALP vote is so high – but on the contrary, in the post Tampa period, the vote is exactly where it would be expected to be at.
The second graph shows the dramatic change that happened in the relationship between PM satisfaction and the government primary vote. Likewise, the primary vote is exactly where it would be expected to be in the post Tampa period.
Sols problem is the same that a lot of pollsters that should know better have – things have changed, but they haven’t changed their understanding to match the observable reality.
Could someone please explain to me how it is that Kevin Rudd is supposedly the richest and most capitalistic man in Parliament incapable of understanding ordinary workers and is at the same time an anti-business slave of the unions? Which one is he?
27
Glen
Ah Glen, good to hear your voice from the Bunker!
Have you put the wife and kids to bed yet? Möge sie in Frieden ruhen.
I used Cassandra and edited the 2004 result in WA.
A 12% shift from Liberal to Green produces a 2 Lib 2 ALP and 2 Green WA Senators and may deliver a non-coalition Senate.
HoR : who cares.
You’ll be begging the Earth Goddess for forgiveness.
P.S. this is humour (for anyone who thinks I really expect the WA Green vote to go from 8 to 20% this election, or the rest…)
RE: Matt Price
Grave doubts about him from the word go. Too flippant, too glib. Always suspected he was a wrong ‘un.
Maybe he needs a rest.
199
Brian Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
To give Price his due he wrote ACTU boss when Hawk spoke on unions. He then wrote quadruple election winning pm.
Brian please spell the name of my political god {Hawke} correctly. That is one spelling error even I will shudder at, lol.
I have to say I’m impressed – already I’ve had two mailings from the labor candidate in my mailbox. Given I live in Higgins, she’s got her work cut out, but obviously has some funding and organisation running hot already!
What’s the swing required again?? 8.5%?
For anyone that’s missed them – the latest summary of all polling data (including the latest AC Nielsen Online Poll) can be found here:
http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=23&Itemid=40
Now with fancy 3d graphs
It would be interesting to see just how much effect the blatant partisan content of most of the articles the News Ltd Journalists have been spinning all year, really have.
Going by the polls, nothing much. This piece by Clinton Porteous is typical of the opinion making which is inserted in what at first glance seem reasonable impartial, but on closer reading are blatently partisan.
{Suddenly the momentum is back with the Coalition even though Labor is still miles ahead in the opinion polls. Focus will now turn to the Galaxy poll that will be published in The Courier-Mail and other News Limited publications on Monday.
A month ago Galaxy showed Labor had 57 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. If that comes back more than a couple of points it will be another sign of the Coalition getting back in the race.}
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22459366-27197,00.html
If the polls don’t seem to be influenced in any determinable manner, with the incredibile amount of opinion peddling by these “so called” Journalists, then why do they bother?
Why can’t they just report things as they really are and let the reader make their own interpretation of whether or not it will influence their voting intentions?
229
Dangerous Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 8:50 pm
I have to say I’m impressed – already I’ve had two mailings from the labor candidate in my mailbox. Given I live in Higgins, she’s got her work cut out, but obviously has some funding and organisation running hot already!
What’s the swing required again?? 8.5%?
You’ll get it ;-D ………… the Gods of karma coming back to bite Costello in the backside for not doing the hatchet job when the time was right.
Re:230
Scorpio
To answer both questions, these “Opinion” writers are deluded that they are “opinion leaders”.
Sometimes they might pull the wool but, I suspect, water cooler chats, TV adverts and polling booth presence are probably more effective at leading opinion.
Adam, in reference to your MSM cross-pollination, in my endless search for metaphors I was trying to find something that would portray the opposite of describing this election as ‘plain sailing’ for the government. I was thinking of using an old whaling term, ‘Nantuckett Sleigh Ride’. That is what happened in the old days of whaling in oared boats, where once the whale was harpooned, it would immediately dive at great speed, the boat playing out rope but still being dragged furiously along until the whale would tire, or the boat would run out of rope.
I thought I’d better check I was using the term correctly, so googled it. I already new it was a song by 60s heavy rock group Mountain, but I hadn’t known it was also a slang term for two terribly unsavoury sexual acts. Hence I’m finding another metaphor for when I speak to the Australian Business Economists on Thursday.
221 Bobby Horry
How much is that little exercise costing taxpayers? Just to appease the god-botherers and unfortunate religious nutters in the community. Another example of warped politics.
Where be Glen and Nostrils on this?
#205
Greeensborough Growler Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
“Under the “Wok Faces†legislation”
Is this some sort of reference to Kevin Rudd, with a face so round he should be on Southpark?
Or is this a reference to the Rudd family obsession with all things oriental?
Given the fact the internet security mailout doesn’t have my postal address nor does it have a return address, what would happen if I put “Return to Sender – Unsolicited Junk”. hehe. It doesn’t affect me anyway, since I have no kids and I work in IT and would know more about the crap they’re pandering out in this round of ‘look what we’re doing’.
Possum, I absolutely was blown away by your “Crimes against Psephology” post.
It is by far and away the best clinical dissection I have ever seen of the political machinations and their relation to polling results.
For those who haven’t seen it yet, here it is. Well worth putting in your favourites for continuing reference when the MSM poll misinformation campaign starts to leave you despairing of a favoured result.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/23/crimes-against-psephology-christopher-pearson-%e2%80%93you%e2%80%99re-nicked/
235 Derek – I asked myself the same thing upon opening it. If I remember correctly, this was something Alston was trying to accomplish many years ago, and it wasn’t exactly embraced then. Absolutely no idea.
Anyone know how to attach one of those filter thingys to me commodore 64?
http://www.smh.com.au/multimedia/2007/national/lindsay-electorate-profile/index.html
Some voters in Lindsay being interviewed. Howard huggers lead the piece, followed by Labor supporters. Left-leaners will like the guy with Scottish accent at the end.
Red Wombat @ 240, do you mean the second generation C=64 SID sound chip which had a filter ability? Replacing chips on a C=64 is tricky enough to warrant just buying the newer model.
red wombat Says:
{Anyone know how to attach one of those filter thingys to me commodore 64?}
You people who like to have this modern, up to date technology, really bug me.
I’m still using two tin cans and a piece of string. How do you think it will work with that? One for the really technically inclined, I think.
240 Lindsay voter – great find. Sigh, I work in Penrith and some of the uninformed rubbish comments, particularly equating Labor with high interest frustrate me. If people want to play that card citing rates from 20+ years ago, then please refer to April 8 1982 when rates were 22% under Treasurer Howard. I don’t see this seat going to Labor. Interesting to see the Liberal ads and ute out in force, but can’t see many Labor ads at all in key places. Am I missing something?
Ta Scorpio – although, as many have said – Christopher Pearson was a target a lot softer than Sol reckons the ALP vote is
Scorpio @231
It has always been so at The Oz. From the early days there was never really any cut-off between reporter and journalist. A reporter goes out, and carries back information. A journalist interprets information. Cadets became journalists overnight at The Oz and, later, The Age. Investigative journos retired or were “downsized” and were not replaced. The tried-and-true structure collapsed. What we have left is a sad shadow of a proud tradition of fearless reporting.
Mr Price is a prime example.
#
114
Will Says:
I’d be interested to know if Fraser would be willing to help, I suspect the answer would be no.
We have already had Keating out lobbing
grenades
Sorry if the HTML tags don’t work.
Lindsay voter;
Interesting clip. Loved the scottish gentleman giving his opinion.
I hope they do a lot more of these type clips. They really get to what people are really feeling.
Charles, it won’t come up. Redo it please.
It shows now:
All Encompassing: 15%
Considerable: 11%
Some: 28%
None: 44%
U/D: ~%
I too can see the OZ writing some story about unions based on their own on-line poll. Anyone got a book of postcodes?
“Am I missing something?”
Well the polling that shows a 8-9% swing to the ALP in NSW. If this held up on election day, I find it very unlikely Lindsay would stay with the Libs. It could be the freak seat that holds, but it’s not likely.
I live in this electorate as well and my feeling is that Labor will win this seat.If you take in the Labor areas of St Marys that have been added to this electorate I would put this as almost a certain ALP gain.Mr Rudd is well liked and WorkChoices is hated with a passion.I would be very surprised if the govt held this seat.The Lib candidate was beaten solidly at the last state election,and Penrith swung TO the ALP at that election,so I can’t see her (Lib) doing any better federally.
Re “soft voters” – there doesn’t seem to be any generally accepted definition of what this means. Here’s some options – 1. Voters who really haven’t decided who they will vote for. 2. Voters who have a preference but might cfhange (waiting for the campaign perhaps?). 3. Swinging voters – those who have a history of changing their vote from election to election. 4. Gary Morgan’s definition (!!??)
Now while each of these groups might be considered “soft” they are quite different in how they behave re voting (and in terms of how they will respond to the overtures of political parties).
I guess my point is that talking about “soft” voters as an homogeneous group is too simplistic.
Yeah Possum, what I was saying earlier without the whoa time series stuff you do. How many wonderful ways there are to enjoy the neo cons decline into the political background.
Possum, I would think that by now, Christopher Pearson would have been made well aware of your post and had a quick read.
I bet it made those red veins in his face bulge out a bit.
How the man can put forward such unadulterated rubbish in the guise of journalism is absolutely beyond my comprehension.
You may have initiated a further outbreak of the MSM/Blogger wars again.
I hope so, because the first engagement was enthralling, to say the least.
I don’t think Tim Dunlop will be game to run with it this time though. Pity.
Julie, here’s a puzzle for you. I have stayed at Mr Costello’s address.
Mrs Costello didn’t tell Mr Costello. I was even at the Costello’s address for Xmas but Mr Costello didn’t find out. How’s that possible?
Will answer shortly.
{Anyone got a book of postcodes?}
Kina, in the front of the Phone Book.
You hid in the wardrobe?
One of the (many) problems with the Australian media is its unhealthy obsession with politics, and its assumption that the populace want to read / watch / listen to reams of political commentary. This places enormous burdens on political journalists. Every day they have to come up with thousands of words of commentary on every tiny transient political epiphenomenon, and make it all sound terribly important and exciting. That’s why the papers all love polls, because they give them sonmething to write about. We are also suffering from a serious blurring between the role of the journalist and the role of the political commentator. This is particularly egregious in the Murdoch press, but it happening everywhere. In my opinion journalists ought not to be in the business of commentary at all. People like Paul Kelly and Michelle Grattan should either report the news, or comment on it, but they should not be able to do both. So now we have far too much political commentary, and we also have politics being reported by people who are being paid to insert their opinions into what they write. This is bad enough in media outlets where management has some integrity (which I think is broadly true of the Fairfax papers), but even worse when management is actively working to get a particular party elected (as is obviously the case with Murdoch). How any journalist with any professional self-respect can work for The Australian after its total prostitution to the Liberal party this year is beyond me.
@ 234 The inestimable Mr Green made an oblique reference. Please, for the love of sanity, don’t be curious about it.
Really, trust me. There are some things you’re better off not knowing.
Antony, perhaps the plain sailing is in the vein of sailing over Niagara Falls in a barrel? The vessel is upright and not taking on too much water, it seems to be picking up a little momentum…
Chris B: Well it certainly wasn’t because the Costello’s were out having dinner at Kirribilli…
sondeo
You took the words out of my mouth. I dont live in Lindsay but know of the R@W campaign there and how succesful it has been. These community campaigns have been going for two and a half years. Penrith was the only state seat to swing to Labor in March.
Scorpio – Tim actually linked into it yesterday.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/the_publics_opinion_of_public_opinion_polls/
I dont think Tim gets the testicular credit he deserves for doing what he’s doing.The office politics would be a hard job.
Dennis Atkins seems to think that Kevin Rudd is influencing the polls.
But, I don’t know how that claim can be made when counter claims are made that Howard is reacting to the polling figures.
I have seen other commentators claim that Howard doesn’t take much notice of the polls and isn’t substantially influenced by them.
I don’t think the truth resides in any of these theories.
{THE psychology of opinion polls can be as powerful as the reality of the numbers.
That’s why Kevin Rudd’s team has used deliberate tactics all year to try to drive opinion one way or another just before major polls are conducted.
They have spiked their positive, Rudd-rich television ads in the few days before the pollsters from Galaxy, Newspoll and Nielsen have gone into the field, launched negative attacks on the government or rolled out voter-friendly proposals.}
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22468474-27197,00.html
It used to be my grand parents address before the Costello’s
Which gives me all sorts of 6 degrees of separation issues I
can involve him in. HE he he.
Kina@250
Try 2150, 3558
Scorpio, that story is seriously lame. Why bother having polls at all if you’re going to try so desperately to discredit them?
Also, if Rudd can manage to influence people to say they’ll vote one way in polls, what’s to say he can’t influence them at the ballot box?
It makes no sense.
Possum, I agree wholeheartedly with your comments.
As a matter of fact, I have it up on another tab at this moment.
It’s good to have a read on other sites while waiting for posts to come up.
The trick is not to stay too long on one site as sometimes there is a virtual flood of comments and you can get behind very quickly.
I read some where to day, probably on this site, Hotham could go to the ALP.
KT & sondeo 251 and 252. Cheers thanks for the insights. I obviously am missing something! Hopefully the outdoor advertising from Labor will ramp up soon in Lindsay.
On Adams point about journos, one of the major problems of poll reporting is that the journos tend to overcook the article.As the fine purveyors of polling intricacies here well know, a one or two point movement from poll to poll is irrelevant. The problem for the last few months has been that more focus has been given to the irrelevant poll by poll movements at the expense of the real story of polling consistency.
(Ignoring blatant silliness like “Howard Checks Rudds March” for instance)
The absence of movement has been the real story, and it really doesnt take that much effort to dress it up into something that would fulfill the role of attracting eyeballs, while still describing the important results in a way that reflects basic reality.
Q. What’s the difference between George Bush and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?
A. One is a super-scary totalitarian religious fundamentalist nutjob and the other…has a really nasty beard*.
Fancy 3D graphs are just chartjunk unless they depict fancy 3D data.
Antony, was trying to help out with a metaphor of the sort you were looking for and came up with zip. I’ll have another look tomorrow, but keep having the idea/image of the “Undertoad”in my head.
Atkins is just picking up on Glenn Milne’s conspiracy theory. He mentioned it a couple of times in some articles a couple of months ago, but he hasn’t mentioned it since.
CTEP.
That has been the “high” standard of journalistic endeavour that we have been subject all year now.
I think the point at where it really started to go down hill was when the expected Rudd honeymoon period when Rudd took over the leadership didn’t start to phase down as expected within about 3 months.
The shrillness of it seems to follow the peaks and troughs of the polls somewhat, although the troughs are not really troughs but an occasional return to the status quo.
Actually, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if Labor has been timing their good news with polling weekends. Consistent good polling creates its own momentum, so it makes sense to try and get some good press in time for the regular polls. The Liberals have done the same in the past – that’s what serious political parties do.
But it’s a bit of a stretch to then say that that’s the whole story behind Labor’s extraordinary poll leads – WorkChoices and Howard’s longevity are the two main issues and they both play entirely to Labor.
I am followinrg this election campaign very closely even though I live in Hunan province, China. The Aussie consulate is 400 klicks away in Guanzhou and it would defently be worth the trip to vote the Rodent out, also my girlfriend lives down that way too
Back in the old country I used to live in the electorate of Hasluck. From my observations Stuart Henry is a goner. He occasionally sent out junk mail about crime and graffiti (States Jurastriction) but did bugger all else. Having met the Labor candidate Sharon Jackson (I think thats her name) she is a shoe-in, she has passion where the Liberal clone, Henry, has nothing.
The one thing I would really like to see tho is the member for Canning, Don Randall, being booted out at the upcomming poll. All he ever does is slander the Labor side of politics but bugger all else, nothing but a wannabe Howard head kicker and a paid up member of the conger line of suckholes.
Dennis Atkins has to be kidding isn’t he? With about 2 polls coming out every week, it means Rudd will always have to have himself in the media and have positive ads for him. Rudd is just playing Howard at his own game, but Howard doesn’t have to spend his own party’s money at the moment, Rudd does.
Rudd was able to make the most of his ‘honeymoon’ period. He could of just sat there and did nothing and set up a firewall approach and maybe pick a few low hanging fruits to get the ALP ready for the 2010/11 election. Rudd and his team went on the offense and did the ‘listening tour’ and came up with the ‘education revolution’ as a way to set the mood that the ALP is about the future not just the next election.
The government has itself to blame if they’re doing badly in the polls. They hoped and wished for a bounce from the budget, and went that didn’t happen they shot themselves in the foot.
Atkins can bitch and complain as much as he likes, but finally the ALP has found someone as clever as Howard. Rudd has been able to play Howard at his own game, and has been able to do that for 9 months to keep a 55%+ TPP.
John (260) great suggestion. It really does open up a lot of possibilities. How about the coalition is heading for the Symplegades – the crashing rocks that Jason and the Argonauts mate it through with a bit of damage to the back of the boat. Of course, all other boats trying the passage had been smashed to a pulp…
On Matt Price, I have to disagree with most posters here. I think he still does a good (and amusing) job, and thought his article on Hawke was generally positive. At worst, though, he does seem to have a personal dislike for Rudd which comes through from time to time.
Re journalism and polls – There tends to be an unhealthy relationship between the pollsters and the media. The media are paying for the polls – which means they are buying editorial content. The pollsters love the publicity they get from their published polls – that’s why most of them charge the media discounted rates for their polls. However, what this does is place an obligation the journalists to make a story from the poll results (whatever they are) and also puts pressure on ther pollsters to over-interpret and justify their poll results – witness recent comments from Newspoll and Galaxy.
Adam for once i agree with you regarding the media.
What is a disgrace is that such a hierachy dictates what journalists must say, that they cannot be objective.
Also the fact the in Adelaide, and Brisbane they only have one newspaper and that being a murdoch paper.
Moreover the media has become solely a marketing tool for business and for events such as Grand Final etc…
Additionally it markets its programs and events and does so through its current affairs and talk shows and it may do so without anyone knowing.
Its fascination with celebrities tries to ensure we become fascinated so that our minds cannot concentrate on “issues” and instead on trivia..
Channel Nine also tries to mirror its concentration on celebs to ensure people also purchase its magazines which it owns…
Digressing slightly the medias pursuit of inconsequential is like the coalition with its scare tactics.. interest rates, unions, can’t be trusted with the economy… means to divert the publics’ attention from the policy issues that concern them….
Re Dennis Atkins: fancy that – an Opposition Leader trying to influence voters to vote against the government! What cheek, what treachery!
Possum, I think the problem with some journos is that they have become participants in the political process rather than reporters of it. It is obvious that some of them have insider information on strategy and thanks to your analysis, especially of the Cosby/Textor research it shoud be fairly obvious who are the insiders. The Milne and Pearson lunacy can be seen in the context of your “win expectation” analysis coming out of the CT polling research. (That is if I have read you correctly). We may scoff at there ability to turn poo into diamonds for the coalition but they are just following the line fed to them by their political masters. They know what they are doing.
Oh Dolly Downer is going to be on Lateline. Once again, the co-host gets interviewed.
sinowestie @ 278.
One could be forgiven for getting the distinct impression that you are not a fan of Mr Don Randall.
285 Will
I was going to say much the same thing. I tuned in to be confronted with the member for Mayo yet again. God almighty, is he paying the ABC appearance money or something??
TV now off, all hopes of watching an interesting interview are dashed.
I think Adam is broadly right on the Australian media’s obsession with politics. Having lived in both countries, I suspect the Canberra Press Gallery is far more obsessive than its Westminster equivalent. What partisan implications can be drawn from this I’m not entirely sure, though, although as an overlay on pre-existing partisanship, it can be quite distorting. In the Hawke years, when Cabinet and caucus were much leakier than now, Michelle G. could quite happily spend an entire week writing about rumoured dissent in the Government over something like Telstra, and we’d be none the wiser by Friday – when absolutely nothing at all had happened. The Age should have moved her out of Canberra long ago, and put her on the sports desk. (Andrew J: it’s still not too late.) The focus on the minutiae just puts people off public engagement in general, and opens the door to demagogues and the Great Simplicities.
I don’t in any way under-estimate the poison of partisanship. Shanahan is a classic example. Milne too (example: his non-story on the supposed gay slur, where he called for Labor to distance itself from a campaign that he himself said was none of its doing) although his worst journalistic sin in my book is his apparent willingness to act as an advertising hoarding for whichever factional plotter is feeding him the juiciest stories. But I do tend to agree with former Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer, who said that in general the main bias of the press is not necessarily partisan (we’ll except Murdoch here, though) was one in favor of conflict. Newspapers running stories based on events created by the newspapers themselves (ie opinion polls) are no longer in the business of reporting news, but are rather creating copy to keep readers ‘interested’ and to fill the gaps between the ads. But I think it’s all too late
Matt Price likes to be seen as having a clue, much like Glenn Milne trying to be important… Trieing hard to be the Laurie Oakes of Politics but both do not have any idea.
Digress.. now its the Liberals going around suggesting Labor is being smug… what tactic next…
Possum at 10.16. Yep, there are real reasons to explain the polling if lazy/rusted on/ so called journos actually looked at why people have turned away from this gov’t in droves. The interesting thing is the why. My hypothysis is that they have a symbiotic relationship, too close and dependant. Their psychopathology matches theirs, or the rocks in their heads matches the holes in theirs.
On what Hugo said about Workchoices and longevity, as a bit of fun we can have a look at how that plays out by regressing the government primary vote against a time variable and a workchoices dummy variable.
The first graph shows just a simple linear longevity variable and a workchoices variable where the black line is the modeled government primary vote, the red the actual government primary vote (to be both read from the right hand side) and the blue line (to be read from the left hand side) the unexplained variation.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2007/09/forpollbludger3.jpg
I’ll do this in two parts as well….
The second graph shows a cubic longevity trend and a Workchoices variable which allows us to explain both the honeymoon period of the Howard government and the Tampa resurgence.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2007/09/forpollbludger4.jpg
Didn’t hear that Will… Turnbull last night and now Downer tonight…. he should get a regular spot or maybe he has.. Wednesday night Costello, Thursday Ruddock and Friday… Abbott…
So much for an independent ABC…
#234 Antony, any chance of a reference (straight-faced thanks very much) to the `sleigh-ride`on election-night coverage?
You know you want to.
Scorpio #286
When I first moved to west oz I lived in the electorate of Swan. After the 96 electon Don was my local member. All we got from him was slander about the Labor side of politics and nothing else. He lost the 98 election and is best remembered for dragging up dirt about Gareth Evens and Cheryl Kernot. I think the margin he holds in Canning is not a true reflection of his performance as a MP. I think Canning will be an interesting seat to watch come election night, I think It might come back to the fold.
RIP Jane Gerrick.
#244, Bobby, during the 2004 campaign, a small group of us (not aligned with any party) leafleted thousands of homes in the Lindsay electorate on the “truth about interest rates”. I also told David Bradbury then that he was not very visible. At least this time I’ve received a pamphlet from him and nothing from the Libs.
I quite like Matt Price! He has a flip style but he often calls it right. He was the only one I remember not getting bowled over by the last Budget and saying it wouldn’t have much impact. He was also pretty dismissive of the new Howard-Costello team. Who’s good? Shaun Carney’s OK, Jason Koutsoukis is all over the place (although got better). Grattan is still good but lost the authority of the past. Peter Hartcher can be way off reading what is going on. Mr Shanahan does tell you what the governemnt is thinking which can be useful. Paul Kelly is stuck in 1987.
In my view the observations by Sol are self serving by the pollsters. If you ave a situation where people dont make up there mind until late and the do so on a progressive basis you need continual polls to monitor what is happening.
If on the other hand the vast bulk of people ave already made up their minds then the need for further polling largely evaporates.
Nevertheless I have some sympathy for Sol as I expect if you ask people whether they are rusted on or still making up their minds many will say they will not finally decide until the end. They wish to retain the option to change if something happens that affects them. In reality though teir mind has been made up months ago.
I think it should be mandatory for the 7.30 Report to have Paul Keating on at least one night a week.
I can’t believe that with all the attention Bob Hawke is generating in WA at the moment, that they can’t get him on for an interview.
Bob is informative, entertaining and well liked across the spectrum and would be far better value than the overused and boring Downer.
Enough, I say, off with him.
Errr, Possum (292) – does that mean I was right?
GG poll; None – 42% Some – 29%.
Well done folks, fixed that one it seems.
Possum, my spaminator doesn’t do that anymore. Link to your heart’s content.
Dolly is on Lateline blaming all the poor countries of the world for not cutting pollution while the rich should be free to pollute at will.
Dolly is such yawn material. He needs to be in high heels and fish nets to spark up this interview.
Actually what Randall said about Kernot and Evans was perfectly true. Whether he should have said it is another matter.
Seriously, people don’t want to know that much detail about politicians.
Yep the poor countries are polluting but with rich countries foreign investment within their countries…
Saw Bush today on the box stating his usual mantra can’t reduce Gases because it will hurt the economy… eventually George unless you act their will be no economy…
Can’t they find another guest for Lateline? Downer is on every frigging week: UGH! Familiarity breeds contempt.
Why not interview Robert McClelland occasionally?
Who else has seen the anti WorkChoice ads from the Nurses Federation? The most effective advertising yet!
Dolly looking more and more like Herman Munster every week
For people who have taken more notice of Dolly, does he um and er all the time? He so doesn’t give an air of confidence in what he says, only in his attempt at a joke about the ALP party meetings accepting socialism (he must have had that joke planned for years as it sounded well rehearsed)
I voted in the GG online poll about union influence over Labor, but can’t see the results. Anyone know why?
I dont think Tim [Dunlop] gets the testicular credit he deserves for doing what he’s doing.The office politics would be a hard job.
Possum Comitatus 263
Agree completely with that. Dunlop deserves a lot more credit than some are giving him. He is by far the most independent and gutsy voice at the Oz branch of News Corp. (Incidentally, he loves the gig, regards it as a dream job, even with its problems and pressures.)
The Piping Shrike 297
What about Mike Steketee?
Switch over to SBS or put it on mute.. You learn nothing from the Jones/Downer half hour.
Hugo at 300
“does that mean I was right?”
Sure does. A straight line trend as longevity doesn’t fit well because there was the Howard honeymoon and the 2001 resurgence.But the cubic longevity trend accounts for those and that second graph(the one with the wavy black line) tracks the governments primary vote really well.It explains 45% of the movement in the government primary vote, but explains about 70% of the movement in the government primary vote once sampling variability and general polling noise is accounted for (which I can’t actually graph to show you, its a bit more complicated)
What on earth is he going on about when comparing voting on climate change to an ALP branch meeting?
Responses like that show how frustratied he is knowing that his time as a minister is coming to an end.
Just Me: are you on a Mac using Safari? If so, use Firefox. I had the same problem
Link friendly e-bouncers eh William – good grief, what next!
Ta.
See, I’m all for having Dolly appear as often as possible. It’s just unfortunate that a) hardly anyone watches lateline and b) it removes the chance for an interesting interview.
His sour lemon-sucking visage must cost the coalition a fraction of a point every time it appears on TV.
you will need to have your cookies on I think – then clear them – in firefox. I dont think it works in iexplore because it is a partially java script appn and I dont think it clears when you reload the page. Anyway firefox works.
Just Me, the GG poll link is working ok. Try this.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
# 317
See your point about votes.. But i would much prefer to listen to a meaningful interview such as John Pilger, Robert Fisk or Talet Ali.. These people actually told you something of interest and provided a meaningful discussion.. Actually where have they gone? A year ago they were on once a week now…
Feel sorry for Tony Jones, every week he has to research questions concerning his co-host and to think you get paid for this.. to think you have to get out of bed for this…
red wombat Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
Dolly looking more and more like Herman Munster every week
And take a close look when Howard is interviewed, sitting and hunched up a little and front on.
If he’s not morphing into Bob Santamaria, I’m not here.
Look out for it and you will see what I mean.
Will @ 310: Yes, Dolly’s always like that in any type of longer-form interview. He’s pretty terrible.
Nuts in K @ 298: Thinking about it more, I suspect the question that they ask of “when did you make up your mind” is probably just an uninformative question. I could easily see plenty of people having a mindset of “well, unless something happens, I’m voting X”. They’d register in the polls as “voting for X” but technically they’ve not actually made up their mind, even if they stick with X, short of a 2nd coming of Latham or similar level event.
The only way to get something accurate would be to track a whole pile of individuals across the course of a year or more up to an election. There’s a vast number of privacy concerns there, of course. This actually reminds me of the excellent Stephen Bury novel “Interface”, that any politics junkie/psephologist should seek out. (Bury is the pen name for the authors Neal Stephenson and George Jewsbury)
Just Me (311): Steketee is reasonably balanced but never find him especially insightful (or interesting to be honest). Thought his link between Chifley’s bank nationalisation and Howard’s Workchoices was barmy. This is hardly a government that is going down because it is too radical (more like bankrupt and empty). By the way, I thought the best piece of proper political journalism I have read all year was Hartcher’s piece on how Howard voiced his worries to the Cabinet a few weeks ago setting off the leadership drama. A real scoop and a real important insight to the dynamics of that whole period, I thought.
WTF!? Downer just said we currently will make our Kyoto target, so why on Earth don’t we ratify the protocol!?
Thanks Possum – It’s always good to have stats that back up my arguments, even if I don’t understand them!
I have to confess that my reading was more of an intuitive one. I do believe that WorkChoices was the catalyst issue, the issue that broke the bond between the electorate and Howard. I’ve heard a lot over the last year or so that he’d “gone too far” with IR, a widespread anxiety that has been expertly harnessed by the union movement and (less so and belatedly) by Labor. It makes sense really – swing voters are usually pretty apolitical and one of the most effective ways to get people like that engaged is to threaten their livelihoods. Right or wrongly (though I think the former), people can’t see how they win anything out of WorkChoices.
The Howard longevity issue partly springs from that I feel. Suddenly people were looking differently at Howard, and just about every issue (climate change, Hicks, interest rates, smears) has seen the bounce of the ball go against the government.
But there is always the risk with a long-serving leader that they suddenly look, well, old. It’s actually a pretty fine line between “wise and experienced” and “old and out-of-touch”, and Howard has crossed it. To use a TV phrase, he’s jumped the shark, and people are a bit over him.
I agree, he revealed that if there was a leadership challenge, Howard would’ve at best got two votes from the cabinet, Abbott and Ruddock.
I suspect that after this little evening, even Dolly is a pleasant evening for Tony Jones.
(Having said that – the above mentioned television is jaw-droppingly brilliant TV, so long as you’ve a taste for cringe-comedy)
I’m not even going to ask what cubic longevity is, although I guess it must have something to do with Fidel Casto, since he’s a very long-lived Cubic.
ShowsOn: I agree and it showed that there wasn’t a leadership challenge but a leadership collapse of confidence, a very different thing. I think that is where the journos have been very slow this year picking it up except in odd bits. They seriously think the government is running an ordinary campaign to win.
Anthony, the brilliant thing about the LP hosting of that ‘Swindle’ video is Christine Keelers hilarious commentary below further down the page.I had tears in my eyes.
My god! Have not read any posts. Mick Keelty, the new terrorism! And Alexander pretends on Lateline he knows nothing of this! As if. What is to be done with Keelty, mouthpiece, servile, ugly? I am ill.
Knew earlier in the day about the Keelty carry on. Did not Kim Beazley suggest some two or so years ago that drowning islanders may need our help?
I am disgusted!
Thanks for suggestions, folks.
Will (315)
Just Me: are you on a Mac using Safari? If so, use Firefox. I had the same problem.
Yes, I am on a Mac using Safari. I must get an alternative browser for these occasional hiccups. (The price one pays for being in a minority, on the other hand, I don’t suffer from malware, ever.)
Scorpio (319): The link works, and I can vote, but the results don’t appear on the page.
Piping Shrike (323): I agree Steketee isn’t the most exciting journo, but he is consistent and fair, which isn’t exactly the norm for a News Corp journo.
And Hartcher does do some good work, but is a bit too fickle for my taste.
Calm down, CW.
anthony baxter Says:
(Having said that – the above mentioned television is jaw-droppingly brilliant TV, so long as you’ve a taste for cringe-comedy)
I was totally gobsmacked during that show. I didn’t think we had people as deranged as that in this country.
It would have been hard for any moderator to keep control of a debate like that because the element of surprise was sprung so suddenly and so devastatingly, that it was hard to believe it was actually panning out like it was.
Classic live television. You don’t see enough of it. The Insight program a couple of weeks ago on Bennalong was good viewing also.
Sorry Adam – I keep forgetting that most people understandably have no f’n idea what I’m talking about with that stuff.
a cubic longevity trend is just a time trend+a time trend squared + a time trend cubed
It gives you a shape like an S that is rotated 90 degrees anti-clockwise and where the curvy bits are fitted best to the data.Throw in the workchoices variable and you get a big change when workchoices was introduced in Parliament and continuing through to today.
Possum, no-one has ever been able teach me anything connected with mathematics, so don’t think you’re going to succeed now. I hate to think what might have become of me had the calculator not been invented. I need one to count my feet.
Scorpio (319): The link works, and I can vote, but the results don’t appear on the page.
Just Me, don’t you worry about that! (Old Queenslander)
Just you keep on voting and we will check the results for you.
None – 45%
Some – 28%
Considerable – 11%
All Encompassing – 15%
I am Catholic by upbringing. I assume a person of the name Mick Keelty is. I am not a believer, but old habits of morality are embedded. Which I do not betray. How could he? I am going off line, this I cannot bear.
What has Keelty done to get CW so agitato?
Possum: Yes, everything about it just makes for classic television. I tried showing it to some buddies at work – they couldn’t cope once the beanie-guy came on. You need to really enjoy the comedy of pain to get through the whole thing.
Scorpio: Do you have a link to anything about that show? I must have missed it.
Can someone explain what I need to do to vote again at the GG’s unions poll?
With all the bagging we have been giving the Journalistic endevours at the GG, they come up with this little gem.
Unions fought for us, now fight for them, says ex-PM
FORMER prime minister Bob Hawke yesterday urged Labor to fight back and “demolish” the lies about unions being peddled by the Coalition, describing the attacks as one of the worst misrepresentations in Australian political history.
Mr Hawke said the Government, backed by employers, had consistently painted unionists as “thugs” and the trade union movement as “an evil influence” and that the tactic should not go unchallenged. But he stopped short of accusing Labor of being frightened to promote its union links.
“The wages and conditions that have established the standard and quality of life which you take for granted, that did not occur by accident.
“It did not occur as a result of the beneficent attitude of the employers. (Those conditions) were fought for and obtained by the trade unions of this country.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22476835-5013404,00.html
The rest of the Article is in the same vein and a contrast to the typical Government spin. Well done Amanda.
I can just see The Australian writing a anti-unio scare piece to tie in with the govts electioneering and the latest issue with the TWU. Seems the GG might want to do another one of its anti-union campaigns like earlier in the year.
Their on-line survery so far.
How much influence do you think unions would have over a Labor government?
None….45
Some…28
Considerable..11
All encompassing..15
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Scorpio: Do you have a link to anything about that show? I must have missed it.
anthony baxter @ 340, sorry mate, there are, but just at the moment I am not sure where to direct you.
Bit past my bed time I think. Will try and find links for you and catch up with the late posts tomorrow.
I just looking at that Oz poll, and followed the link to the company offering the poll. That led me to this piece of polling… well… excellence is the only word that comes to mind:
http://www.coredata.com.au/pdf/2007062101.pdf
I like this data: June 2007
Almost 84 per cent of Labor voters said they believed Mr Rudd would become the next prime minister, while 56 per cent
of coalition supporters thought Mr Howard would retain his position.
I’ve just revised my opinion on tomorrow’s Oz story.
New headline: “Labor in Online Vote-Rigging Scandal”
Lede: “OPPOSITION LEADER Kevin Rudd was dealt a new blow last night as evidence emerged of an orchestrated campaign by Labor supporters to rig online polls in favor of his party.
“This comes just a few days after one mainstream poll indicated a shift back to the Government following a series of stumbles by Rudd and allegations of a sex-smear campaign against a prominent Federal minister.”
(This stuff just writes itself, believe me…)
Scorpio (337)
Just Me, don’t you worry about that! (Old Queenslander)
LOL. I know just who you refer to, one side of my family comes from hard national party voting south Queensland.
Just you keep on voting and we will check the results for you.
You won’t lie to me about those results now, will you? I mean, after all that trouble I am going to in voting early and often, the least I can expect is honest reporting.
Online vote rigging scandal? Is that even possible?
A group that run certain well known sporting ground that had a contract to host one final a week in a major sporting competition in this country once had an online poll asking whether it was fair that finals should be at this venue even when the team that earned the right to host them was from another city. I think it ran for a few days.
Either way, a couple of hours before the poll closed, the voting was very much in favour of the teams getting to host the finals in their home city ahead of the contracted game at this well known sporting venue, with a pretty high number of votes. Amazingly, in the last couple of hours, a massive number of votes came in, which completely changed the result around (not evened it up, completely changed it – ie 70-30 became 20-80).
Rigging an online poll scandalous? It’s old news that one.
VoterBoy of Over the Water : That will be the headline probably followed by a correction – Liberal hard-right revealed in manipulation of on-line polls in an effort to undermine Howard and install Kevin Andrews as new leader.
Here it comes, the race card. Dealing from the bottom of the deck we have one Alan Wood, ‘economics editor’ of the GG.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22482184-7583,00.html
According to The Australian, acting as proxy for the Liberal Party, ethnic diversity is ’strongly negative to social capital’. Labor will adopt corrupt immigration practices and the country will be flooded with dusky demons, yellow yoiks and burnished barbarians.
Can someone please get on the blower to Richard Pratt and inform him that he has been declared a negative to Australia’s ’social capital’ and that he is destined to end up in some street gang?
It’s going to get dirty folks, and Rupert has the whips out…
You know… I don’t think it’s helping either. It’s like reading the Al-Jazeera website.
Newspoll on state voting intention in WA:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22484459-12377,00.html
3% movement to the coalition since July.
Now only 51-49 to Labor.
I wouldn’t let the WA Libs run a tap. that’s way too close for comfort.
Rudd’s wife under attack by UK unions
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=421745
#348 VoterBoy of Over the Water Says: September 26th, 2007 at 12:30 am
Dude… don’t let us stop ya. That kind of talent deserves money! Sell the idea to the highest bidder! Milne needs a break… this could be just the headline he needs!!!
I’ll understand.
Yeah Mr Q 355
That WA state voting intent is bizarre.
The WA Liberals are effectively leaderless as Omodei has been publicly warned by his party to shape up and has been just as invisible since then.
The Labor govt is getting a bit of criticism in the media for new laws which are claimed to legalise prostitution (but which do not).
Pi #347. Glenn Milne last week managed to write a story that called on the Labor Party to dissociate itself from a sex smear with which (according to the very same Glenn Milne story) it had nothing at all to do. He then effectively accused Kevin Rudd of encouraging the spread of such smears, based on the fact that Rudd had not disciplined a union hack who had been smearing … umm, err … Rudd.
I cannot hope to match Glenn Milne, Pi. He is in a league of his own. Increasingly, it sounds like the League of Rights, alas…
The old racism card.
Nothing else has worked so far. The people failed to go all xeonphobic and fearful over Haneef, are now embarassed over our detenion centres and The Australian wants to be Howard’s proxy purveyor of xenophobia?
The GG no longer has journalists, it is hard to describe what they are. They must sit around every day trying to think of ways to help Howard back into office.
Trash paper which I no longer will buy and I shall stop buying goods from their top 3 sponsors [once I work out who they are] and write to them and tell them so and, for what reason. Damned if any of my money is going to help the GG and damned if I will buy anything from people who give them money.
People are no longer waiting for politicians with baseball bats, it will be journalists.
#
360
kina Says:
September 26th, 2007 at 2:15 am
Careful now. I hear that that sort of secondary boycott is illegal these days.
Only if you are telling others to do it – Im doing it because I have the choice to decide what I do.
51-49 aye? Get Julie bishop over there and they’ll be a shoo-in.
Any word on a NSW state newspoll? from previous years there has always been one released in September. I’d expect that to be close (If not having the coalition in the lead)
By the way, the newspoll tables: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/wa-newspoll-26sep.jpg
Baz @ 280.
Nice one. Either they squeak through with a few broken timbers, or they are crushed and thrown into the angry maw of the ocean.
I still like Antonty’s original image as well. He could still use it, but not use its name.
Possum @ 313 and elsewhere.
Many thanks for your analysis and your explanations of your analysis.
Showson #324
Australia will meet its Kyoto target because it has the highest target of all countries (108% of 1990 levels).
Therefore out of all the countries Australia had the ‘easiest’ job in terms of reaching their target. Despite that the protocol was still ignored by Howard.
Regardless, IIRC Australia is using some spurious accounting to claim they will meet the target. Some will argue Australia will far exceed the target rather than meet it.
Despite what Howard/Bush say, is very important. Without it the world’s ‘thinking’ on the subject would be light years behind what it is now.
I did my PhD thesis on the economics of climate change and it is very frustrating to see the amount of disinformation about climate change in the media.
@ 368 Jarusa Says:
I agree Jarusa. The one that really fires me up is that energy efficiency would cost too much. When in fact a lot of money can be saved.
And also because of the one-off emissions reduction created by the reduction in land clearing in Qld and NSW.
Kyoto sceptics like to bag the performance of Canada relative to Australia but interestingly if you exclude the Land Use, Land Use Change & Forestry Sector (which many people say you should because it is highly influenced by arbitrary starting points for the accounting) the performance of the two countries is almost identical.
It was reported in today’s ‘Weekly Times’ that Danny Lee, who’s the public spokesman for an irrigation group in the Mildura area, is going to run as an independent in Mallee. I don’t know anything about him other than some (rather inflammatory) quotes reported in the Melbourne papers, but one might imagine that an independent with a reasonable profile, running a populist campaign on water issues, could have some potential in that seat (this could also apply in other irrigation seats, of which Murray, Riverina, Farrer and Barker would be the most significant).
I’ve been sent an email by the Climate Change Coalition advising of their new website
http://www.climatechangecoalition.com.au/
and announcing candidates for the election.
Does anyone know anything about this group? Are they a front for someone, or an attempt to divert greeny voters away from the Greens? In the NSW state election, where did they direct their preferences?
#372, Adam the group was formed by Patrice Newell, Phillip Adams’ partner. As far as I know I don’t think they are a front for anyone.
The Climate Change Coalition are a frount for the ALP,
The Climate Change Coalition lied about their preferances to voters on polling day
The Climate Change Coalition directed preferances to the ALP and stoped the Green getting up in Port Jackson
The CCC are an ALP frount
The CCC cozied up to Green worker and plonked their HTV’s ,A-frames next to The Greens.
The CCC workers were seen taking off ALP T-shirts and putting on CCC T-shirts.
The CCC booth workers were paid $100 for the day.
Bus loads of backpackers were trucked in.
Photos to follow.
Thanks envy, that is interesting.
. . . if true.
Oh ye of little faith …
“Pollers says union influence will rise”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22487254-11949,00.html
Sorry for being incredibly ignorant, but what does GG mean?
The Government Gazette = The Australian
374 envy Says: September 26th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
I’m sorry Envy… but wasn’t it the liberal supporters that handed out deceptive how-to-vote cards to green voters, different from the actual green party how-to-vote cards, in order to get their preferences?
The liberals are in not position to point fingers at anyone, regarding their relationship to green issues, or green parties.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/em/elect04/report/minority.pdf
electorial misbehaviour practiced by both ALP/LIB, directed at the Greens, is proof of the threat the Greens pose to the snug 2PP regime opperated by the powers that be.
Thanks for the link Pi.
I don’t have faith in the Labor Party anymore…
All I know is Howard has to go… but I think the Nat Executives of the NSW Labor Party Branch … (well one inparticular) is a lying… manipulative… snake…
Go the Greens?