• The past fortnight has seen much talk emerge from the Coalition camp of encouraging internal polling in sensitive seats. Tony Barrass of The Australian today reports that a Crosby-Textor poll conducted a fortnight ago had the Liberals on track to retain their 10 seats in Western Australia while also gaining another of the remaining five, Cowan. On Saturday, The Australian reported a “jump in the party’s support in the crucial seat of Bass”. This was apparently putting Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull under pressure to approve Gunns’ proposed Tamar pulp mill, regardless of the damage this would cause to his own position in Wentworth. The “senior Liberal source” behind the story reckoned that Turnbull’s seat was “not in trouble”.
• And yet, on the other hand, we also have reports the Liberals have begged Jackie Kelly, Warren Entsch, Kay Elson, Geoff Prosser, Trish Draper and Barry Wakelin to abandon their plans to retire, to improve the party’s chances of retaining their seats of Lindsay, Leichhardt, Forde, Forrest, Makin and Grey. Remarkably, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reported yesterday that Liberal polling showed Grey, held by a margin of 13.8 per cent, would be lost unless Wakelin stayed on. It was further reported he had briefly agreed to do so before changing his mind again, with his nominated successor Rowan Ramsey urged to smooth the path by stepping aside.
• On the other side of the fence, Paige Taylor of The Australian talks of Labor polling which shows it set to double its margin in Brand, the outer southern Perth seat being vacated by former leader Kim Beazley.
• Labor MP Gavan O’Connor, who lost preselection in his seat of Corio to ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, raised eyebrows by declining to farewell parliament during last week’s presumed valedictory speech. Mark Davis of the Sydney Morning Herald speaks of “a frisson of anxiety in Kevin Rudd’s office” at the thought of O’Connor standing against Marles as an independent.
• A huge round of applause for Luke Miller and his revamped Cassandra Senate election calculator, which allows us to set quotas and input our own preference tickets. This means it can be used to play out any hypothetical scenario not only for both half and full Senate elections, but also for all mainland state upper houses.
• I abandoned the practice of fisking newspaper commentary on opinion polls early in the history of this site, because it seemed too much like shooting fish in a barrel. Give thanks that Possum Comitatus harbours no such qualms.
382 Comments
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A very high ALP person told a friend of mine that the election will be very close, the ALP has a massive task ahead in getting 16 seats and there is no question of assuming victory in the slightest.
CTEP @ 43
It’s a tabloid beat up. The libs are jumping all over it in their desperation. Any laborite who gets cocky should be taken out and dealt with severely. It’s not over yet …
I’m not sure why polling in Bass would put pressure on Turnbull to approve the Gunns mill. Unlike the RFA and the mill workers last election, the only poll on the issue in the electorate that I’m aware of showed 53% of Bass votes polled don’t want the mill to go ahead. I can’t remember the undecided or the number that wanted the mill – and it was commissioned, though not carried out of course, by an environmental lobby group so the released results (if not the poll itself) are likely to be spun a little.
Still, the idea that many people have that everyone in Bass wants the mill (based on the Sydney media’s reading of the last election) is very flawed indeed.
Naughty, naughty!!
Labor’s alleged faux pas du jour:
Loitering with intent and a tape measure within the precincts of the parliament. For this abominable crime of political hubris suggest Coonan, Abbott and Costello, they are unfit to hold our nation’s highest office.
They’re lashing out at chimeras now. E-night’s just gained a whole new dimension.
hmm, to use the senate calculator I simply added 5% to all ALP votes and deducted 5% for all Lib votes and from the 2004 preferences it added a Victoria seat for the Greens along with WA and TAS. Not many people have talked up the Greens chances in Vic, why is that?
Yeah, Enemy … heard the unlovely Coonan on ABC wireless. Do they really think this stuff will move votes? Pathetic.
EC @54
Labor should as a matter of practicality and planning be preparing for government. Every opposition party should have plans in place for government no matter what the polls say. If labor did not have these plans in place it would leave them exposed to claims of being ill-prepared for government. Howard and co would have plans in place should they be re-elected.
Remember what happened in QLD, when the Libs and Nats didn’t know who would be premier if they won.
Quite right, Arbie Jay
In Victoria, when Bracks whacked Kennett, the new government was as shocked as everybody else. “Christ, what do we do now.” That’s from an insider, my other half.
Rudd and Co would be failing in their duty if they didn’t prepare for government. This talk of measuring carpets and such is just plain silly.
Eden-Monaro will go to Labor.
As of today 25.09.2007, at Sportingbet and LassetersSports, where people playing / betting with real money, list the odds for Eden-Monaro as follow:
@SportingBet: ALP 1.35 / LP 3.00
@LassetersSports: ALP 1.4 / LP 2.75
Both have overall (federal) Labor / Coalition odds at 1.45 / 2.75
#39 DLP Yes but the next poll that Labor needs to be thrown out at, a la Paul Keating, come back here, and you will find it similar for the Liberals. Although I suspect not for some time.
For Howard to win seats in WA, he has to achieve a swing his way. This appears impossible, boom or no boom. The hip-pocket issues that bite elsewhere in the country also bite in WA: high mortgage payments, high food prices, high credit card debts/ installments, punishing rent levels.
It’s true that wages have been going up quickly here, but not for everyone and not by enough to keep up with things. There is a real shortage of housing here, but house-starts are in fact declining. In the outlying areas of Perth, property prices have been falling somewhat (as they have in other cities), despite the shortage. A lot of people feel sort of trapped and while they may not exactly blame Howard for all this, they not going to leap over tables to vote for him either. He is going to wear some resentment for interest rate/ property price squeeze.
Younger people also feel hard done by in relation to tax: if they are not beneficiaries of the family tax credits, they pay the full marginal rates, unlike their child-rearing peers. It is really not easy for younger singles to make financial progress in Peth, precisely because the boom has pushed up costs so far and so fast.
Any idea the Liberals have that they might gain is seats in WA is just delusional. They face an almost impossible task to hold Hasluck and Stirling, whatever they might say about their polls.
Here is a clue that the Liberals don’t think they can pick up any new seats in QLD. They have nominated a 26 year old law student for the seat of Rankin, currently held by Labor on a 3% margin.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Liberal-Party-makes-fundraising-push/2007/09/25/1190486237053.html
“Mr Coulson’s candidacy was confirmed by the party’s state council on Sunday, bringing to 24 the number of seats being contested by the Liberals in Queensland.
He is studying a combined law and commerce degree at Griffith University but is taking time out to dedicate to the upcoming campaign.”
blindoptimist, what makes you think people believe Labor will make them better off in relation to the ‘hip-pocket issues’.
I see no evidence of this. In fact it makes more sense that a lay person would imagine they’d be better off under a Coalition government.
Also a 51-49 Coalition/ALP in WA could mean that they’ve just regained ground in their safer seats (eg. Fremantle, Perth, Brand) where they lost ground at the last election. I still think they could very well lose Cowan and not regain any of their lost seats.
That assertion on WA just does not make sense – it’s just way too out of line with other polling. Only one WA-specific poll this year hasn’t shown a swing of at least 4% to Labor in WA.
Quite frankly, I can’t believe that the swing could be restricted to only safe seats (and be reversed in Cowan). For instance, I’d find it highly unlikely that you’d get a big swing in Moore and Curtin and no swing in Stirling which they sandwich. It just doesn’t make sense.
If there’s a 4% swing, then Labor are going to win at least one of Hasluck or Stirling – I’ll grant uneven swings could see the Libs hang on by the skin of their teeth in one (akin to Labor in Swan last time around). But Labor winning both would seem more likely.
Yes, that’s certainly possible. However it apopears to be the best case scenario for the government, and they would have to improve considerably on recent published polling to get there.
The real reason Johnny won’t call an election is that he is bogged down in Bennelong. For the other 11 possible answers to the question “Why are we waiting?”, visit ‘Labor View from Broome” http://laborview.blobspot.com/
“I see no evidence of this. In fact it makes more sense that a lay person would imagine they’d be better off under a Coalition government.”
You have been posting to here for quite a while honey, how is it you as a professed labor supporter haven’t noticed interest rate rises and workchoices.
You speculation that lay people see themselves off as better with the coalition is classic Howard Battlers type stuff, have you got any evidence for this.
The libs doing well in WA makes no sense, the only suggestion that makes sense is Adam’s from his inside source. It would be a miracle if they retained Stirling on a 4% swing, that would mean that personal factors in a totally urban seat was beating more than 1% of swing.
Well again, yes, its seems/feels right to be cautious, of course – - but on all actual evidence you’d have to conlude that NOT winning 16+ seats would be the more remarkable achievement with primary voting intention seemingly stable around 46-41.
On the wider policy front, I do think the ALP should let it be known the 30% childcare rebate (now, surprise surpirse, upfront, and arrving in bank acounts this week) is to be kept.
But of course, a decent childcare availablity policy (intgrated with kinder so its 9-5 as well) would be be the main game.
Current system is an abysmal friggin joke. BBQ exploder.
John Hughes at $2 in canning to Randall’s $1.70 seems interesting to me, I was just popping in to see if I could get super value on John Huges and $2 is not super-value for a seat almost no-one expects to fall, might almost put money on Randall at 1.70.
Sportingbet now have Andrew Laming behind in Bowman for the first time. I wonder if something has happened – a whisper maybe.
8.9% margin and behind with the bookies? very odd.
Jasmine of course I have no evidence. However, just thinking it’s obvious to most people that they’re not better off under Howard because of interest rate rises and WorkChoices is a bit much.
Most lay people I know don’t even know what WorkChoices is. I had to explain it in very simple terms to my family. I just don’t believe people think they’ll be remarkably better off under Labor. Whilst people may no longer think interest rates will always be higher under a Labor government I’m not sure they conclude that they’ll ever be lower.
I think if you’ve spent much time in Cowan, an area I grew up in, you’ll know that there’s a lot of development in the area. This is an area where people are so snobby that they move one suburb over to be in more rarified company. I think their best hope of holding the seat is improving their unusually dismal vote from working class areas (eg. Girrawheen) at the last election. These are usually the Labor’s strongest areas and I was shocked at the results from these booths in ‘04.
As always, I think that being cautious is the best option for Labor supporters. WA is a state I wouldn’t be expecting too much from. I think if on election night we need to wait for WA to know the result we won’t be feeling too optimistic.
For those wondering why the Liberals are on the nose, you might think about Alex Hawke. He was one of the stars of the piece I linked to in an earlier thread, and he’s almost certainly going to be the new member for Mitchell. This is the 5th safest Liberal seat in the nation on a 19% margin.
This is the sort of politician who will help decide the future of the liberal party. I can’t imagine him willingly voting for anyone but the most hardened of right-wingers. I also can’t see this charge to the far right doing anything good for the liberal vote.
No, not happening, no worries there
. It is just the conservative press hyping this up as they want the hesitant or undecided Liberal voters to be scared into voting Liberal again. It is the old politics of fear which Howard is so experienced at using although this go round, he is getting his media stooges to play it out for him.
CTEP I agree with your last paragraph. I know the areas and surrounds you talk of very well.
I think you are completely wrong about workchoices and interest rate rises. Stirling I hold a little concern for, Cowan with KGB and Hasluck with Armadale and surrounds I have no concern for, so long as the swing to us is about 4%.
Remember under the proposed redistributions in the state lower house seats in the east metro region there is not one notionally liberal seat. Now I don’t want to translate state to federal, but I don’t believe any suggestion these people love Howard, nor are as completely stupid as your theory relies on them being.
But ask Adam I weird I’m a labor person who likes ordinary people and would love them to join ALP branches in droves.
Yes Jasmine, the area surprised me completely when it elected Judy Hughes as Member for Kingsley at the last state election. This area is, I think, the most worrying area for Labor in the Federal seat of Cowan. If they can convince these people to vote Labor federally they should be confident in holding the seat.
63
Call the election please Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
blindoptimist, what makes you think people believe Labor will make them better off in relation to the ‘hip-pocket issues’.
I see no evidence of this. In fact it makes more sense that a lay person would imagine they’d be better off under a Coalition government.
Also a 51-49 Coalition/ALP in WA could mean that they’ve just regained ground in their safer seats (eg. Fremantle, Perth, Brand) where they lost ground at the last election. I still think they could very well lose Cowan and not regain any of their lost seats.
……
Ctep,
The Libs sure hope that people see things the way you suggest. But the argument wears a bit thin in the end. Howard effectivey said he would keep rates down, but he hasn’t. He says to people that they are better off, but they know they’re not as well off as the statistics say they should be.
Howard is not as unpopular in WA as elsewhere, but nevertheless, 40% or more of people are dissatisfied with him. The reflex of these voters is to look elsewhere. This is Howard’s great problem: a lot of voters are fed up with him, including voters in WA. They are receptive to competing messages and are sceptical of Howard… for good reasons, really.
There is no sign of swing to the Liberals in WA and they are starting from a high base. Even significant moves in a few safe seats is not going to do much to alter the statewide distribution of votes. If the statewide 2PP vote is 49/51 in favour of the coalition, then there is a swing to Labor and you will find you’ve been whistling in the dark about Cowan, Stirling, Hasluck….
I did a chart showing Stirling’s deviation from the statewide and national swing at every election going back to 1955. It shows the deviation from the statewide swing has been less than 2 per cent at every election since the early 1970s. Given that the Liberal margin is 2.0 per cent, a 4 per cent swing in WA that failed to deliver Stirling to Labor would be almost a once-in-40-year event. As someone who knows the electorate all too well, I can say there are no obvious local or candidate factors that might suggest such a result.
The latest polling summaries are here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=686
Thanks William. That informaion certainly puts me more at ease! I just wish the election was over with already.
If those suburbs are Girrawheen (median income $740) and Warwick ($1158), that isn’t such a surprise.
66
Kevin Rennie Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 2:04 pm
The real reason Johnny won’t call an election is that he is bogged down in Bennelong. For the other 11 possible answers to the question “Why are we waiting?â€, visit ‘Labor View from Broome†http://laborview.blobspot.com/
Thanks for the recommendation of the blog, though the correct URL, I believe, should be http://laborview.blogspot.com, unless you are interested in being redirected to the Paranoid Cyberpunk http://www.cyberpunk.cc/ .
77
William Bowe Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
If there’s a 4% swing, then Labor are going to win at least one of Hasluck or Stirling – I’ll grant uneven swings could see the Libs hang on by the skin of their teeth in one (akin to Labor in Swan last time around). I did a chart showing Stirling’s deviation fro..
……
William,
Your point is well-made. Stirling (and other WA seats) behave normally. The voters are normal, the results are predictable. If there is a swing away from Howard in WA, then Stirling will not be exempt. This is what you would expect.
Since the polls show a statewide swing away from Howard is likely, then this should manifest itself as a swing in Stirling, as well as other seats.
On this point, consider how improbable it is that Howard could achieve a swing in his favour, considering the already-high base vote he has, and the hip-pocket issues affecting voters in WA.
Ctep,
Relax and enjoy. You don’t get to experience the obliteration of Liberal governments very often. I can recall Gough’s win in 72 and rejoiced when Hawke won. This one, when it occurs, will be among the all-time best.
If you feel it is too much to bear, console yourself with the knowledge that every day of postponement by Howard will magnify the proportions of his inexorable and total defeat!
Like Jasmine I find the suggestion that there will be no swing or a much lesser swing in WA bizarre. I’d certainly want to see evidence for it other than op-eds in Murdoch papers. Anyone watching the rise in house prices in the Perth mortgage belt in the past few years must know that they are now very sensitive to interest rate rises. That can’t possibly help the government.
71 Call the election please Says: September 25th, 2007 at 2:17 pm
Anyone that works in the service industry, or retail, knows what WorkChoices is. And it’s all bad-news for them. Their wages are going backwards relative to inflation.
So as far as hip-pocket problems, that’s a whole lot of people, with a whole lot of empty hip-pockets.
Aristotle 78
Thanks for that analysis. Overall for the figures this year, it really is amazing how consistent they are. No sustained period of anything over Labor 57% 2PP or under Labor 56% 2PP in 9 months! In fact, the single biggest trend from year start to finish seems to be the solidifying of the Labor primary vote from 47% to 49%, meaning that if anything, as time has gone on the undecided camp have gone from preferencing Labor to voting for Labor. So calling it soon may be an exercise in damage control.
If Howard delays much longer I think this whole episode will make an admirable postscript to one of my favourite history books, The March to Folly by Barbara Touchman. Lesson: arrogant leaders can never admit they are wrong till its too late, often because they tend to surround themselves with people who tell them they are right when they are not.
As I said on Friday, my WA sources are extremely confident about Cowan, Swan and Hasluck, only a little less confident about Stirling, and 50/50ish about Canning (which is pretty amazing given Canning’s paper majority).
Re the Lib candidate in Rankin. It’s taken them long enough given the small Labor majority, but since it’s obvious there’s a Labor tsunami brewing in Brisbane they only need a token candidate.
The NSW Libs still have no candidates in Banks, Barton, Charlton, Cunningham, Grayndler, Newcastle, Reid, Shortland, Sydney, Watson or Werriwa. The Victorians still have no candidates in Batman or Scullin (tough gigs both of them). The NSW Liberal website still has not a word about any of their candidates. Of their NSW candidates, as far as I can find out, only Jim Tsolakis in Lowe has bothered creating his own website.
CTEP
Can i have a stab in dark and suggest your perhaps young enough to not have experienced much of the Hawke/Keating years as an adult?
I’m in the same boat, and the fact that i’ve never felt the winds of chnage brush against my cheek, is making me incredibly pessimistic about this election (i note you’ve said the Libs by 5 and 7….personally i’m at about 9 at the moment). People older than me have constantly told me that the ALP will win, but for the life of me i can’t being myself to believe it. Like a jilted lover, i want to believe, but deep down i’m just scared Australia will hurt me again….
My sister works in retail and doesn’t know what WorkChoices is. It’s not as simple as that. She lives in Curtin though so her votes not going to make a huge difference.
However, my dad lives in Forrest and his whole workplace are on AWAs that they despise. They have to work Saturdays/Sundays at no extra, they’ve lost their half-day Fridays etc. It’s definately not ‘flexible’ at all. I can only imagine how angry they must be watching the WorkChoices ads.
Brother, living in Brand, is on an AWA that says he can’t join a union, was definately given no choice in whether to sign it as he’s an apprentice.
I agree that people on AWAs will be very aware of WorkChoices, but I don’t think knowledge of it is that good for the majority of people who are not on AWAs.
Plans, yes; fabric swatches, no.
Spent an hour early this morning in Brisbane with a senior Liberal strategist. They are confident about the West – despondent about the rest of the country. There is no fifth term agenda. There is no sense of “governing”. The advertising dollars are mis-spent – they re-inforce perceptions of a tricky and calculating Government. As previously posted the election will be called on Sunday Oct7 or 14 – probably for Nov 24.
Brisbane Central candidates list is out:
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/BrisbaneCentral2007/candidates.html
I have just had another look at the Western Australian leak story, and behind the nice paragraphs and bluster, there is the basic argument of Glen, with frankly less support than Glen gives it.
All the same tired arguments that are conjecture:
*AWA’s popular – do we have evidence for this or is it the only explanation for a 4% swing when the rest of the country is swinging much more.
*Burke smear – remember this backfired and increased labor’s lead only Glen and that journalist hold to the anti-burke swing theory.
* ‘liberal MP’s believe’ well tally ho to them.
Behind in Hasluck & Stirling …
What a freakin’ zoo! Hopefully Hawke spouts some of his views in his first parliamentary speech, and is forever marginalised.
Not surprising, there wasn’t much of a fourth term agenda.
If it wasn’t for the surprise Senate control that allowed them to cobble together Workchoices, then the govt would have not much to show for the last few years.
This year it’s been almost entirely reactive politics, or trying to be super-premier with half-assed nationalism…
Adam,
The Libs do have a candidate in Charlton. He was on local radio the other day talking about how he is not scared about taking on Combet. Sorry but I cannot remember his name.
“Fabric swatches”? Parliament House offices are standard issue and all furnishings are Parliament House standard. This is an absurd Liberal beatup. Of course Labor MP are increasingly confident about the election, and why wouldn’t they be? There’s a certain amount of sotto voce intriguing and negotiating about front-bench positions going on, but again, why would there not be? There’s certainly no overt hubris. I gather Caucus got a stern lecture about overconfidence at its meeting last week. I don’t think Rudd’s being hubristic. He has a naturally cocky disposition, it’s true, but he has not said a single word off-message about how tough the election will be. This is just another Murdoch press slander.
Are there supposed to be 1,000 new AWAs every day/week?
WorkChoices is the swiss-army knife negative issues for the Govt simply on the perceptions it projects;
Housing affordability – WC wont help you afford to buy
Mortgage stress – WC will make it harder to pay
Balancing the budget – WC will make it harder to raise a family
Kids and Grandkids – WC removes their rights, risks their future
Loss of balance – WC will remove unions, leaving all vulnerable
Confidence in your future – WC is only one part of their plan, WC2
WC Unfairness – What sort of govt subject people to unfairnes?
Thanks for the tip, Ben. He’s keeping a low profile, whoever he is. Neither Google nor Wikipedia can identify him. Perhaps it’s WorkingMan4Howard, who lives in Charlton. A pity William has necked him so we can’t find out.
Er, I was joking. ‘Fabric swatches’ just scanned better than the alternatives.
I know, I know.
Anyway, I’m with Lefty E. All you ALP members and campaigners should be working like you’re 10 points behind.
We, on the other hand, will happily sink the boot in while the Libs are down
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