• The past fortnight has seen much talk emerge from the Coalition camp of encouraging internal polling in sensitive seats. Tony Barrass of The Australian today reports that a Crosby-Textor poll conducted a fortnight ago had the Liberals on track to retain their 10 seats in Western Australia while also gaining another of the remaining five, Cowan. On Saturday, The Australian reported a “jump in the party’s support in the crucial seat of Bass”. This was apparently putting Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull under pressure to approve Gunns’ proposed Tamar pulp mill, regardless of the damage this would cause to his own position in Wentworth. The “senior Liberal source” behind the story reckoned that Turnbull’s seat was “not in trouble”.
• And yet, on the other hand, we also have reports the Liberals have begged Jackie Kelly, Warren Entsch, Kay Elson, Geoff Prosser, Trish Draper and Barry Wakelin to abandon their plans to retire, to improve the party’s chances of retaining their seats of Lindsay, Leichhardt, Forde, Forrest, Makin and Grey. Remarkably, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reported yesterday that Liberal polling showed Grey, held by a margin of 13.8 per cent, would be lost unless Wakelin stayed on. It was further reported he had briefly agreed to do so before changing his mind again, with his nominated successor Rowan Ramsey urged to smooth the path by stepping aside.
• On the other side of the fence, Paige Taylor of The Australian talks of Labor polling which shows it set to double its margin in Brand, the outer southern Perth seat being vacated by former leader Kim Beazley.
• Labor MP Gavan O’Connor, who lost preselection in his seat of Corio to ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, raised eyebrows by declining to farewell parliament during last week’s presumed valedictory speech. Mark Davis of the Sydney Morning Herald speaks of “a frisson of anxiety in Kevin Rudd’s office” at the thought of O’Connor standing against Marles as an independent.
• A huge round of applause for Luke Miller and his revamped Cassandra Senate election calculator, which allows us to set quotas and input our own preference tickets. This means it can be used to play out any hypothetical scenario not only for both half and full Senate elections, but also for all mainland state upper houses.
• I abandoned the practice of fisking newspaper commentary on opinion polls early in the history of this site, because it seemed too much like shooting fish in a barrel. Give thanks that Possum Comitatus harbours no such qualms.
382 Comments
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CTEP @ 89 – it’s not just people on AWAs who know about them. If you have had second-hand experience through a close relative or friend then you can still have an understanding of how big an impact an unfavourable AWA can have on your life and the lives of those around you.
And that’s the problem for Howard and co: despite all the banging on about “Fairness Tests”, most people know of someone – or have heard a story about someone – who has been severely disadvantaged by the OLD IR LAWS (ie pre-Fairness Test) and can’t do anything about it.
The Business Council ads are very quick to trump the amount of AWAs signed as proof that people want them, but I would like to know exactly how many of them are Mark 1 AWAs, rather than the new “improved” model. The problem is that no one can tell us for sure – the Government won’t release the figures.
I wonder why?
CTEP 89 et al RE Knowledge of AWAs
Didn’t the ACTU release some sort of (unbiased i’m sure) survey suggesting that 40% of Australian workers acknowledged they had been negtively effected by workchoices?
Tony Abbott trying to drum up perceptions of labor hubris:
“This is a Labor opposition with smugness and complacency written all over their faces”
Coming from a man who was born with a permanent smirk on his face…
This won’t go down well for Howard.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22479718-5005361,00.html
By the way, at last count, were *any* actors in the pro-workchoices ads not convicted criminals, or persons under under investigation by the workplace authority?
Just curious.
No Lefty, but their convictioins are just part of their ‘method acting’.
The Liberals want you to think that the ALP is bragging. It is only what the Liberals are putting around. Like everything else they say take it with a grain of salt. The Liberals are very very desperate. Every thing they do a the moment is to make the ALP look bad. There is no evidence that this is correct.
For the liberals to have a successful full of hubris type attack on labar don’t they need to admit they are going to lose. The whole we are still winning look they said that in the Australian plus saying at the same time it is so obvious they are going to lose the other side is getting cocky – just doesn’t work.
I’m very happy the arrogance of this Government is so deep they can’t admit they are going to lose, in order to minimise labor’s gain. They are running two incompatible campaigns simultaneously.
Bit like Turnbull yesterday, but am I right on late line his whole ‘Peter will be leader after Howard’ was ONLY IF THE LIBS win. If the libs lose and Turnbull is in the house he will try and blame costello for the loss and take over; maybe not straight away but he will.
Lefty, does the head of the workplace authority count as an actor? As far as I know, she’s not been convicted of anything yet. “Wasting taxpayer money” is regrettably not a crime.
Will the new drought package need to go through Parliament?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/drought/drought-aids-1b-boost/2007/09/25/1190486290284.html
Will it sit in October to pass it?
Frank at 104 – I was thinking exactly the same thing when I saw it on the ABC news feed.If that turns out to be like it looks, it’ll have legs and all of it bad for the Coalition.
there’s list of Lib candidates in many electorates in the Oz today, but I can’t find it on line.
It annoys me the way Howard trumpets the announcement of the National Health and Medical Research Grants as the “outcome of a major funding round provided in the last budget for research beginning next year.” He then goes on to say: “You couldn’t do it if you were paying off debt. The fact that we’re not paying off debt [means] we’ve got $8-9 billion a year in saved interest that we can spend on good things like medical research.”
This is horse manure. As someone who works in research, this is the same grant program that has been funded since at least the Fraser government, and in some form for many years before that ! To say that interest savings are paying for this research money is scandalous.
Ah Bob, the true battler’s PM, is out and about making sure Labor gets over the line this time. He is also stating Labor isn’t cocky.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/25/2043068.htm?section=justin
This raises a question, will we see Keating and Whitlam make appearances or are they considered a risk? I know on the other side of politics they won’t want Fraser helping, because he isn’t so liked in the New Order.
114,
The way that Fraser has trashed Howard over the years, you half wonder if he will come out and campaign for Rudd?
……
Prime Minister John Howard has ruled out calling an election this weekend.
Mr Howard told reporters in Sydney that he will be attending both the AFL and NRL grand finals.
Mr Howard was asked if he planned to call the election this weekend………………………..That should send the “Booing” meter of the scale.
I agree, if Fraser were to campaign, it wouldn’t be for Howard.
I doubt the coalition would get a primary vote above 20% combining all Port and Geelong supporters …
I don’t think Fraser will Rudd, but it wouldn’t surprise me. He detests Howard by all accounts. Gough, Bob and Paul, on the other hand, are Labor demigods and will be campaigning as asked, although’s Gough’s not very mobile these days. (A lot more mobile than I’ll be at 91, no doubt.) Bob has been working hard in WA where is still very popular. There’s also a Bob speech in Bennelong on YouTube.
I was with the faithful brothers and sisters very recently and Bob is loved with a passion.
Time for Howard to dig up the bones of his great hero Pig Iron Bob, lord knows he could do with all the help he can get.
119,
Wouldn’t that be a treat to see Fraser and Whitlam campaigning together for Rudd?
we can live and hope ……
Adam, do you think Keating is a plus or minus for Labor in the electorate? I know Hawke/Keating did a lot for the country, but the dying days of the Keating era wasn’t the best. Federal Labor probably has done itself a disservice in distancing itself from Keating and his reforms, but it seems now they’re saying it was the work of Labor and the reforms in the 80’s and early 90’s that has given us this long term prosperity. I’m sure Keating would love to give one final blow to Howard, but I think people will see Keating as a liability. In my opinion, Hawke and Whitlam aren’t a problem.
The Workchoices ads are a really poor idea. They don’t soften the perception of the legislation in the public eye, they just remind the public of the issue.
If the Libs stopped talking about this 2 year old issue there’s at least some chance that some voters might forget or move on, particularly in the barrage of election related promises, threats, wishlists, inquiries, scare campaigns and defamation (not to mention the odd policy announcement) that is about to descend on us.
Constantly reminding us of the existence of the legislation doesn’t do the coalition any favours, and weakens their own scare campaign regarding the number of unionists in the federal ALP caucus and front bench…
I’m pretty sure with a bit of assitance from a Menizes sound a like and digital manipulation of old footage anything’s possible
What is wrong with union members again?
More problems for the Minister for Horse Flu in Qld.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22480125-5005361,00.html
Fagin, Howard could be in for a shock if he resurrected Menzies, he might be told he has wrecked the party and has forgotten it’s values. Perhaps he should dig up the bones of Churchill, at least they share something in common, a name.
South Australian pony clubs have moved to cancel all events until the end of the year to help ensure the state stays free of equine influenza.
The Pony Club Association, which includes 62 local clubs and about 1,600 riding members, said the decision followed a briefing by primary industries officials.
hmm….If I was running the campaign for Rudd, I’d offer the Libs unlimited free Mark Latham time if we could borrow Malcolm Fraser for a speech or two. You could put Gough and Malcolm on a stage together and they could talk about the higher things in life – about the greater good of the people and the pointlessness of trying to hang on to power for its own sake. They are very well qualified to speak on these topics.
The way to negate the anti – union rhetoric (if it indeed needs counteracting) is to put a face on the average unionist, the family man/woman, trying to make ends meet. Then ask, are these the people you are afraid of Mr Howard? Are these the people who are going to bring the country to its knees? It would do two things – soften the union image and put the Libs on the back foot by having to defend their criticism of the average working person.
Matthew Sykes from 113 notes The Rodent squeaking :
“You couldn’t do it if you were paying off debt. The fact that we’re not paying off debt [means] we’ve got $8-9 billion a year in saved interest that we can spend on good things like medical research.â€
MS, you don’t appear to be a very suitable candidate for Aspirational Nationalism (my, havn’t they been quiet about that lemon lately). All this talk about Bennelong John Howard and “horse manure”. One must appear GRATEFUL at Prime Minister’s largesse when he re-distributes our very own taxation revenues while simultaneously reminding us that as “saved interest” accrued, a nation’s sacrifices under SerfChoices were not in vain.
It’s not that King Kirribilli Coconut expects you to grovel or eat dirt or anything like that. A doff of the cap or twirl of the forelock will do just fine. Oh, yes, there’s a good chap then, if you wouldn’t mind, a vote for the Coalition would be as good as doing your duty.
I think it would be a big mistake to use Keating & Whitlam in this campaign.
The electorate wasn’t too kind to either when they lost power. Both these men gave us the biggest losses in post war Australia.
I think Kevin Rudd needs to be his own man.
If he is looking for support then the State Premiers should be playing a role.
I can’t understand for the life of me why Bracks and Beattie didn’t hold out until after the election. Both hugely popular, both media savvy and both were really putting a dint in Howard’s “non campaign”.
It could come back to haunt us
Can’t remember the exact title exactly but I read in a newspaper recently that only 7% of mining contracts are under WC….. So that probably means that the West’s share of WC is actually lower than people believe.
There’s also a strange double think here.
All awards and all contracts have always allowed bosses to pay MORE than the award rate – so why should WC make any difference at all?
I was around when Fraser was thrown out. One of the hot button issues was to prevent the Franklin from being dammed. I cannot remember the Liberals being anywhere as devious as they are now. Maybe someone else has a clearer memory of this time.
I think it’s already been negated. The only people whining about Unions are dyed in the wool Howard lovers. I haven’t heard a peep from anyone else. Complaining about Unions taking over is like trying to warn people that dinosaurs will rule the earth again. It’s a dead issue to most people.
M. Sykes @113
Sounds right. Classic Howard fudging and fiddling. Deserves wider distribution. Pin it down and spray it everywhere. He must not be allowed to get away with stuff like this.
Gary Bruce
That’s brilliant! Ordinary union folk making a crust. Hardly scary. Heart-warming, really. This has legs …
WorkChoices the legislation that just keeps giving.
QUEENSLAND’S workplace ombudsman is investigating the sacking of a Cairns receptionist two months before she was due to take long-service leave.
The woman was dismissed for reasons of misconduct, reportedly two months prior to her taking her 10-year long-service leave believed to be worth about $6000.
The unfair dismissal laws that would usually come into effect in such cases may have been negated due to the reasons for the sacking and the fact the company employs fewer than 100 employers.
#123
Yes I agree Will. For some reason I never quite understood, many people failed to see Keating’s essentially modest, warm and loveable personality, and formed the bizarre idea that he was arrogant and out of touch. Even after 11 years of his successor, this view may linger in some quarters, so it’s probably not better to expose him too much in the marginals. He’s great for revving up the faithful in the safe seats, however. The Libs would kill for a warm-up speaker like Keating. No, Menzies wouldn’t do – he would be horrified at the way Howard has trashed federalism. The Libs will have go back to Stanley Bruce to find a Tory leader to their taste. And we know what happened to him…
On Liberal tactics in 1983 compared to 2007 – they’ve had more than 20 years coaching from the Republicans in the black arts of lying and cheating your way into office since then. What we’re seeing now is pure Karl Rove.
John Howard might well call the election next Monday 1st October which would give him the minimum days for November 3rd. It would be a short sharp election in that case.
It wouldn’t be a good omen however to call the election on Labour Day!
It does look as though he’s going past November 3rd. He may be taking that risk of an interest rate increase. Bit like Russian roulette.
In that case he might as well go for November 24th.
The longer he delays the more it will look like he is clinging to power desperately hoping the polls will turn his way.
The polls might even start turning worse if the pressure mounts.
He’s staying beyond his allotted three years.
Not a single poll is favouring him yet, not even close.
It seems to me he is just savouring his last days in office. Deep down he knows his days are numbered one way or the other.
Even if he wins, which would be by the skin of his teeth, there would be immense pressure to step down quickly.
He reminds me of a condemned man slowly eating his last meal.
This may have been discussed somewhere already, but what do people make of Sol Lebovic’s comments last night on Lateline?
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2042147.htm
He seems to disbelieve his own polling. Sure, the polling may be beyond Laor’s wildest dreams, but given the consistency of the polling for the past 6 months, is Sol to be taken seriously?
The biggest post-war election loss was Caldwell lossing to Holt in 1966 43.1 to 56.9.
I agree Adam. I’ve met Paul Keating, Bob Hawke and met Malcolm Fraser several times, negotiating on the whales. He struck me as a very warm person but exceedingly shy. He certainly did the right thing on the whales.
All three of these are engaging personalities. Of all recent PMs Gough Whitlam beats them all. I spent an hour in his office with him in William Street a couple of years ago and I just wish I had recorded it. He was just amazing. He gave me a detailed history of everything, complete with jokes and extraordinary anecdotes. I left with my head reeling. No doubt many others have had a similar experience. I can’t imagine an hour with John Howard would produce the same result.
I would rather have 48 % of people saying they will give me their first vote than 40%.I cannot see what issue the Libs/Nats could use to win back all those votes.Union bosses invading every workplace scare tactics aren’t doing it.
Dump Howard maybe ?………….
The uglies have been trying to drum Fraser out of the liberal party for years now. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if he did speak out during the election campaign – the temptation must be high.
How much of the Liberal party’s change since 1983 is due to the NSW Uglies, though? It’s gotta be a fair amount. I’m sure 4 Corners did something on them… ah, here tis.
“Sol Lebovic said the polls are contradictory because while they all show numbers with a crushing lead for Labor, many voters won’t in fact make up their minds until the last two weeks of the campaign.”
The polls are not contradictory at all. They have been saying the same thing with total uniformity all year: Labor will win. Against this fact Lebovic places his opinion that Labor’s vote is soft because, apparently, people don’t mean what they say, or will change their minds in the week before the election, or something. OK, Lebovic’s been around a long time and does know what he is talking about with polls. But this seems to be a weak argument to me, unsupported by evidence. Elections do not always do not tighten up during the campaign. He may be right, but it may also be the case that this time the voters have made up their minds and won’t change.
As far as Sol’s piece from Lateline, well, the link doesn’t give the full details of his speech, but there’s no indication that it’s based on anything more than fuzzy feelings.
I don’t trust his “10% make up their mind at the last minute”, either. If that was the case, the polls should show much higher swings in the last week than they do. I guess it’s possible that people who make up their minds in this way end up in roughly the same voting pattern as everyone else… but it’s also possible that the people who told him that were fooling only themselves. It looks like a podcast of the speeches is available at http://www.thesydneyinstitutepodcast.com/web/index.asp if you want to get the full content.
Richard Jones 141
October 1st is not Labour Day in WA.
Does this tell us anything?
It’s Betty Windsor’s Birthday (one of many)
It’s also the start of School Holidays and Show Week.
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