• The past fortnight has seen much talk emerge from the Coalition camp of encouraging internal polling in sensitive seats. Tony Barrass of The Australian today reports that a Crosby-Textor poll conducted a fortnight ago had the Liberals on track to retain their 10 seats in Western Australia while also gaining another of the remaining five, Cowan. On Saturday, The Australian reported a “jump in the party’s support in the crucial seat of Bass”. This was apparently putting Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull under pressure to approve Gunns’ proposed Tamar pulp mill, regardless of the damage this would cause to his own position in Wentworth. The “senior Liberal source” behind the story reckoned that Turnbull’s seat was “not in trouble”.
• And yet, on the other hand, we also have reports the Liberals have begged Jackie Kelly, Warren Entsch, Kay Elson, Geoff Prosser, Trish Draper and Barry Wakelin to abandon their plans to retire, to improve the party’s chances of retaining their seats of Lindsay, Leichhardt, Forde, Forrest, Makin and Grey. Remarkably, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reported yesterday that Liberal polling showed Grey, held by a margin of 13.8 per cent, would be lost unless Wakelin stayed on. It was further reported he had briefly agreed to do so before changing his mind again, with his nominated successor Rowan Ramsey urged to smooth the path by stepping aside.
• On the other side of the fence, Paige Taylor of The Australian talks of Labor polling which shows it set to double its margin in Brand, the outer southern Perth seat being vacated by former leader Kim Beazley.
• Labor MP Gavan O’Connor, who lost preselection in his seat of Corio to ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, raised eyebrows by declining to farewell parliament during last week’s presumed valedictory speech. Mark Davis of the Sydney Morning Herald speaks of “a frisson of anxiety in Kevin Rudd’s office” at the thought of O’Connor standing against Marles as an independent.
• A huge round of applause for Luke Miller and his revamped Cassandra Senate election calculator, which allows us to set quotas and input our own preference tickets. This means it can be used to play out any hypothetical scenario not only for both half and full Senate elections, but also for all mainland state upper houses.
• I abandoned the practice of fisking newspaper commentary on opinion polls early in the history of this site, because it seemed too much like shooting fish in a barrel. Give thanks that Possum Comitatus harbours no such qualms.
382 Comments
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103
Milkman Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Tony Abbott trying to drum up perceptions of labor hubris:
“This is a Labor opposition with smugness and complacency written all over their facesâ€
Coming from a man who was born with a permanent smirk on his face…
……
And from a man who, when comparing the Feds to State Governemnts, described himself as being one the First Eleven of Australian Government. That sounded really good in WA. Liberals from NSW would do well to remember that this is still a federation.
Saying that voters’ support for Labor is ’soft’ is really another way of saying their rejection of Howard is ’soft.’
Actually, I think that the pundits (and certain politicians) have shown great contempt for the voters, and have assumed that the polls simply reflect that voters like Rudd’s haircut better than Howard’s, or something like that.
The pundits have yet to consider the possibility that the polls reflect a clear rejection – not merely of Howard, but of specific Liberal policies. Those people who think putting a fresh face (such as Costello, or Turnbull) on the same poisonous policies obviously don’t have much faith in the average voter’s intelligence.
blindoptimist: If Abbott has a permanent smirk, we need a new word to describe Costello
203
anthony baxter Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 8:12 pm
blindoptimist: If Abbott has a permanent smirk, we need a new word to describe Costello..
……
yup ‘permanent smirk and temporary help’…sounds good to me
Under the “Wok Faces” legislation
I just reread Michelle Grattan’s article of today in TheAge. I missed this line the first time I read it – “The PM’s disapproval exceeds his approval — 49-43 per cent.”
Now come on, no matter what party you hang your hat with, NO one can find a good reason to reelect someone who has more people disliking hiim than liking him
…… another reason the Libs goose is cooked to a crisp 
.
Yes Blindoptimist
” … a lot of people want a change in the conduct, themes, policies and values that pass for politics in this country. ”
It’s not just the big-ticket items like WorkChoices, it’s a build-up of grey areas, the subleties of good governance. Once was, Australia had a decent name around the world. Fair. That has been demeaned by Howard and his blinkered view of world affairs. It will take decades to repair.
I’ve never bought into this soft labor vote nonsense. Surely a better predictor of voter softness is the volatility of the primary vote rather than some of the half-arsed questions that get asked.
I see a few references to “MSM” here. Can someone please tell me what it is.
MSM = Mainstream Media
And the Labor Primary voting indicator has been rock solid all year at around 46-50%.The Coalition would sell their mothers for numbers like that.
Chris Curtis, it means Main Stream Media, MSM.
currently msm = mean sickening ministers
The latest numbers in that Oz Poll are:
All Encompassing: 17%
Considerable: 12%
Some: 32%
None: 38%
U/D: ~1%
If these numbers hold up, I assume that if the Oz were to use this poll as a story, its lede would read:
“MORE THAN 60% of Australians have expressed concern that a Rudd Labor Government would be dictated to by unions, according to an exclusive poll in The Australian.”
I should have bookmarked the reference, but that is pretty much how they spun a recent poll which on any normal reading would have indicated that few people gave Costello credit for the strength of the economy. In the alchemist hands of the Oz hacks, Costello’s faithful remnant became a solid block of support.
“Unfortunately for Matt, he has gone backwards in a similar vein to a number of his News Ltd collegues.”
Matt’s last few articles have been a disgrace, especially the last two, which were nothing but angered rants about Rudd.
This latest one is OK-ish, but the bitterness towards anything Labor is almost palpable. I noticed that comments on today’s blog were stopped at noon. I think the glowing comments about Hawke were just too much for Matt to bear (and probably the rest of the Government Gazette).
To his credit, Matt tried his best to be relatively impartial for a while, but as the realisation that Labor might win this election has started to sink in, I sense that Matt has panicked, and is now doing his best to give Howard a leg-up.
But of course, it means that Matt has now smashed what credibility and respect he did have, so he is the ultimate loser.
A poll of registered users of Fairfax media showed Labor holding a 57 to 43 per cent lead.
Has anyone got any more information on this Fairfax online poll. It appears to be closely following the other polling figures but I don’t know what questions were asked or the results.
Interestingly, not much has been made of this fact, but I think today’s poll showed that the much-demonised Julia Gillard would be a more popular PM than Costello at the present time. This doesn’t say much for the vaunted ‘team’.
I’d put up Captain Smirk and Eary Smirk. Or Smirk mit Ears. Or variations. Whatever, it’s eerie. Do they go to smirk school?
This is unworthy. But only too willing to help.
“I’ve never bought into this soft labor vote nonsense.”
The supposedly “soft” vote is the occasional swing we see towards 60%. Given that Labor’s 2PP vote hasn’t really dipped below 55% all year (just a couple of very slight exceptions), the most plausible scenario is that it is a very strong vote up to 55 and soft above that.
I suspect that people like Sol do have a better idea about what is going on but when he appeared on Lateline, his audience wasn’t you and I or the general public. I suspect he was really directing his comments to the government, trying to boost morale and give them some sense of hope. It was motivational spin.
And I don’t think it is a bad thing. If people think that there is still a good chance that the government will be returned, it will only harden their resolve to get rid of them.
In social science circles MSM stands for “men who have sex with men.” I’ve been laughing about that all year.
On a slightly unrelated matter, I just received some government horse shit in the mail about internet censorship. That issue was only current, what, about ten years ago? There is even a glossary in the back of the booklet explaining terms such as “operating system” and “anti virus software.” Just goes to show how out of touch this government is, and the polls truly reflect this. Lol, to borrow a Simpsons quote – “the internet is on computers now?”
Thank you, Kiwipundit and Monica…and Adam.
Sols off with the fairies.
CT told us the soft vote was 5% for each party. Newspoll told us the soft vote was 10% and 11% for each party. The following two graphs pretty much explain why.
(I’ll split this over two posts so I don’t get antispaminated by Williams electronic bouncers)
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2007/09/forpollbludger1.jpg
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2007/09/forpollbludger2.jpg
Please notice what happened after the Tampa period – the relationships shown here dramatically altered and permanently changed.
The first graph shows the PM dissatisfaction/Opposition primary vote relationship. Sol reckons the ALP vote is soft because the ALP vote is so high – but on the contrary, in the post Tampa period, the vote is exactly where it would be expected to be at.
The second graph shows the dramatic change that happened in the relationship between PM satisfaction and the government primary vote. Likewise, the primary vote is exactly where it would be expected to be in the post Tampa period.
Sols problem is the same that a lot of pollsters that should know better have – things have changed, but they haven’t changed their understanding to match the observable reality.
Could someone please explain to me how it is that Kevin Rudd is supposedly the richest and most capitalistic man in Parliament incapable of understanding ordinary workers and is at the same time an anti-business slave of the unions? Which one is he?
27
Glen
Ah Glen, good to hear your voice from the Bunker!
Have you put the wife and kids to bed yet? Möge sie in Frieden ruhen.
I used Cassandra and edited the 2004 result in WA.
A 12% shift from Liberal to Green produces a 2 Lib 2 ALP and 2 Green WA Senators and may deliver a non-coalition Senate.
HoR : who cares.
You’ll be begging the Earth Goddess for forgiveness.
P.S. this is humour (for anyone who thinks I really expect the WA Green vote to go from 8 to 20% this election, or the rest…)
RE: Matt Price
Grave doubts about him from the word go. Too flippant, too glib. Always suspected he was a wrong ‘un.
Maybe he needs a rest.
199
Brian Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
To give Price his due he wrote ACTU boss when Hawk spoke on unions. He then wrote quadruple election winning pm.
Brian please spell the name of my political god {Hawke} correctly. That is one spelling error even I will shudder at, lol.
I have to say I’m impressed – already I’ve had two mailings from the labor candidate in my mailbox. Given I live in Higgins, she’s got her work cut out, but obviously has some funding and organisation running hot already!
What’s the swing required again?? 8.5%?
For anyone that’s missed them – the latest summary of all polling data (including the latest AC Nielsen Online Poll) can be found here:
http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=23&Itemid=40
Now with fancy 3d graphs
It would be interesting to see just how much effect the blatant partisan content of most of the articles the News Ltd Journalists have been spinning all year, really have.
Going by the polls, nothing much. This piece by Clinton Porteous is typical of the opinion making which is inserted in what at first glance seem reasonable impartial, but on closer reading are blatently partisan.
{Suddenly the momentum is back with the Coalition even though Labor is still miles ahead in the opinion polls. Focus will now turn to the Galaxy poll that will be published in The Courier-Mail and other News Limited publications on Monday.
A month ago Galaxy showed Labor had 57 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. If that comes back more than a couple of points it will be another sign of the Coalition getting back in the race.}
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22459366-27197,00.html
If the polls don’t seem to be influenced in any determinable manner, with the incredibile amount of opinion peddling by these “so called” Journalists, then why do they bother?
Why can’t they just report things as they really are and let the reader make their own interpretation of whether or not it will influence their voting intentions?
229
Dangerous Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 8:50 pm
I have to say I’m impressed – already I’ve had two mailings from the labor candidate in my mailbox. Given I live in Higgins, she’s got her work cut out, but obviously has some funding and organisation running hot already!
What’s the swing required again?? 8.5%?
You’ll get it ;-D ………… the Gods of karma coming back to bite Costello in the backside for not doing the hatchet job when the time was right.
Re:230
Scorpio
To answer both questions, these “Opinion” writers are deluded that they are “opinion leaders”.
Sometimes they might pull the wool but, I suspect, water cooler chats, TV adverts and polling booth presence are probably more effective at leading opinion.
Adam, in reference to your MSM cross-pollination, in my endless search for metaphors I was trying to find something that would portray the opposite of describing this election as ‘plain sailing’ for the government. I was thinking of using an old whaling term, ‘Nantuckett Sleigh Ride’. That is what happened in the old days of whaling in oared boats, where once the whale was harpooned, it would immediately dive at great speed, the boat playing out rope but still being dragged furiously along until the whale would tire, or the boat would run out of rope.
I thought I’d better check I was using the term correctly, so googled it. I already new it was a song by 60s heavy rock group Mountain, but I hadn’t known it was also a slang term for two terribly unsavoury sexual acts. Hence I’m finding another metaphor for when I speak to the Australian Business Economists on Thursday.
221 Bobby Horry
How much is that little exercise costing taxpayers? Just to appease the god-botherers and unfortunate religious nutters in the community. Another example of warped politics.
Where be Glen and Nostrils on this?
#205
Greeensborough Growler Says:
September 25th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
“Under the “Wok Faces†legislation”
Is this some sort of reference to Kevin Rudd, with a face so round he should be on Southpark?
Or is this a reference to the Rudd family obsession with all things oriental?
Given the fact the internet security mailout doesn’t have my postal address nor does it have a return address, what would happen if I put “Return to Sender – Unsolicited Junk”. hehe. It doesn’t affect me anyway, since I have no kids and I work in IT and would know more about the crap they’re pandering out in this round of ‘look what we’re doing’.
Possum, I absolutely was blown away by your “Crimes against Psephology” post.
It is by far and away the best clinical dissection I have ever seen of the political machinations and their relation to polling results.
For those who haven’t seen it yet, here it is. Well worth putting in your favourites for continuing reference when the MSM poll misinformation campaign starts to leave you despairing of a favoured result.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/23/crimes-against-psephology-christopher-pearson-%e2%80%93you%e2%80%99re-nicked/
235 Derek – I asked myself the same thing upon opening it. If I remember correctly, this was something Alston was trying to accomplish many years ago, and it wasn’t exactly embraced then. Absolutely no idea.
Anyone know how to attach one of those filter thingys to me commodore 64?
http://www.smh.com.au/multimedia/2007/national/lindsay-electorate-profile/index.html
Some voters in Lindsay being interviewed. Howard huggers lead the piece, followed by Labor supporters. Left-leaners will like the guy with Scottish accent at the end.
Red Wombat @ 240, do you mean the second generation C=64 SID sound chip which had a filter ability? Replacing chips on a C=64 is tricky enough to warrant just buying the newer model.
red wombat Says:
{Anyone know how to attach one of those filter thingys to me commodore 64?}
You people who like to have this modern, up to date technology, really bug me.
I’m still using two tin cans and a piece of string. How do you think it will work with that? One for the really technically inclined, I think.
240 Lindsay voter – great find. Sigh, I work in Penrith and some of the uninformed rubbish comments, particularly equating Labor with high interest frustrate me. If people want to play that card citing rates from 20+ years ago, then please refer to April 8 1982 when rates were 22% under Treasurer Howard. I don’t see this seat going to Labor. Interesting to see the Liberal ads and ute out in force, but can’t see many Labor ads at all in key places. Am I missing something?
Ta Scorpio – although, as many have said – Christopher Pearson was a target a lot softer than Sol reckons the ALP vote is
Scorpio @231
It has always been so at The Oz. From the early days there was never really any cut-off between reporter and journalist. A reporter goes out, and carries back information. A journalist interprets information. Cadets became journalists overnight at The Oz and, later, The Age. Investigative journos retired or were “downsized” and were not replaced. The tried-and-true structure collapsed. What we have left is a sad shadow of a proud tradition of fearless reporting.
Mr Price is a prime example.
#
114
Will Says:
I’d be interested to know if Fraser would be willing to help, I suspect the answer would be no.
We have already had Keating out lobbing
grenades
Sorry if the HTML tags don’t work.
Lindsay voter;
Interesting clip. Loved the scottish gentleman giving his opinion.
I hope they do a lot more of these type clips. They really get to what people are really feeling.
Charles, it won’t come up. Redo it please.
It shows now:
All Encompassing: 15%
Considerable: 11%
Some: 28%
None: 44%
U/D: ~%
I too can see the OZ writing some story about unions based on their own on-line poll. Anyone got a book of postcodes?
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