Adelaide’s Advertiser newspaper today carries a slightly curious poll of voting intention in Boothby, held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a margin of 5.4 per cent. Conducted by phone from a sample of 649, it shows Southcott leading Labor candidate Nicole Cornes by an improbable 49 per cent to 32 per cent after distribution of the undecided. No two-party result is provided, but commenter Matthew Sykes has transcribed the paper’s large volume of generally unilluminating data from the poll throughout the previous comments thread. No doubt the Advertiser’s pollsters do their best, but my mind is drawn back to the final week of the state election campaign last March, when it ran a poll showing the Liberals neck-and-neck in Norwood and set to retain Hartley. Labor went on to win the seats with respective margins of 4.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Advertiser Boothby poll
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516 Comments
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All you constantly do is repeat whatever the Liberal party line was on a particular day. You rarely demonstrate an ability to think about an issue for yourself. This is what makes people suspicious of your contributions.
Case in point!
WTF? Unemployment in 1973 was 2.5% In the 1980s, the prices and incomes accords were responsible for killing off inflation once and for all. The accords are something that couldn’t be done by the Liberals because of their antagonistic attitude to unions.
348 Glen Says: September 27th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
I believe my first comment on this site was an urging to just ignore Glen. His job is to make the debate about him, not the actual subject of the thread. I’d say he’s achieving his objective – in a debate about the (marginally important) seat of Boothby, Glen’s managed 100+ mentions in a field of about 350 comments. I don’t want be negative but to (mis)quote the obvious: “never argue with a fool, they’ll just drag you down to their level & beat you with experience”. You are arguing with a facade.
348 Glen Says: September 27th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
.
Because, Glen, in order to actually have a pathological fear of unions, one must actually have a rudimentary understanding of what they do. Something that you clearly do not have.
You don’t have a pathological fear of anything. What I suspect you have, is a pathological desire to be a politician, and a conservative one at that. Which is why you want to debate all of the time (even when debating subjects for which you know very little) and you clearly do use a liberal party fact-sheet.
You know nothing about unions, only about spewing forth someone elses propaganda, like all good little conservative foot-soldiers do.
If you actually had even the simplest level of experience (you know, having a job, renting a house), instead of a conservative student-activist grasp debating principles, you might have something to add to a discussion on the motivations behind why people want to see the back of this odious government. But all you rely upon are someone elses slogans, and someone elses fears, based upon someone elses market-data. And then you wonder why your argument is recognized as the shallow and useless point-scoring of a sycophant.
You proved all my points Pauline…thankyou very much!
You couldnt destroy my arguments on nuclear power…you couldnt destroy my argument that you use the ‘Liberal Party hack’ as a reason to not address any points because you have no way of destroying my arguments…
Pauline i think you need to wake up and smell the coffee the if anybody wants to achieve full time serfdom it is the ALP by bringing back unfair dismissal laws that WILL cost people their jobs…Workchoices have not increased unemployed it has DECREASED unemployment and wages have INCREASED under workchoices not decreased as your Union comrades told you would happen…
You are a completely ignorant person Pauline if you automatically reject nuclear power as you have done i would have thought people like you would be willing to look at all options to stop climate change like the Coalition unlike the ALP…
Finally there is one argument that you will fob off because you cannot possibly deny this…that the ALP in order to become competitive in elections in Australia has had to put in Right Wing Labor leaders to come even close to beating the Liberals…the Liberals have never sold out their base the ALP have the Liberals dont need to change our political philosophy to try and win elections whilst the ALP has had to time and time again why just look at all those Right Wing Labor Premiers and Kevin Rudd one of the most conservative ALP leaders in their history…
Socialism has no future Pauline and because your views are a relic of the past your views warrant little debate!
Glen, to be fair you must admit you make comments sometimes to provoke a reaction. If you get no attention you just make a more dramatic assertion until someone takes the bait.
Glen, how do you explain rising unemployment in the Northern Territory?
ShowsOn unemployment was so low in 1973 because the ALP and i must admit the Coalition had every industry in Australia protected under tariffs so that unproductive industries still could employ massive amounts of people it has nothing to do with any Liberal (Gorton/McMahon) or ALP (Whitlam) policies…
Sorry Glen – agree to disagree. What about the polls?
Are they based on relics of the past? I wonder which world you are living in. Wake up and smell the coffee and have a good look behind you because there is a huge and massive ruddslide coming your way.
Polls prove nothing. Your arguments are invincible as they do not relate to this reality.
But then the polls can’t be believed because this Govt is the best Govt we have ever had in the history of this Galaxy.
So if Howard’s amazing stewardship is so amazing, how do you explain the amazing polls.
Isn’t political reality an amazing place?
Scary isn’t it Glen when the political reality hits….OUCH!!
# 355 Glen Says: September 27th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Neo-conservative and xenophobic policies, backed up by fear and smear has no future, and your views are soon to be a relic of the not-so-distant past.
Your views, as the polls show, warrant little debate.
Pauline as ive told you before and i readily admit that my party the Liberal Party does badly when faced against Conservative Labor leaders that is a fact plain and simple and it helps, it doesnt fully, but it helps to explain the position the Liberals are in at this time…
Pauline Howard hasnt been perfect and i would naive to think that and i never have said that as ive said before Rudd has been smart in agreeing with everything the Coalition does that is popular and everything that is not for example Iraq, Workchoices they go against it so its no wonder Rudd is doing well in the polls that and the question of media bias but that is debatable on both sides…
Pauline i should also remind you that i am positive Liberals back in 1993 displayed as much hubris as you yourself have shown “here is a huge and massive ruddslide coming your way” and it did not auger well for them…if you were intelligent you would hold off your ‘celebrations’ until we know who has won…to do so before does not look good i must admit and as Rudd has said himself he’ll throw a tonne of bricks on anybody showing Hubris so id be watching out if i were you…
CTEP i agree with your statement that “you make comments sometimes to provoke a reaction” that is only because i am a minority conservative on this blog without me it would basically be a Kevin 07 site i know you dont like my opinions but this is a democracy….you are just as entitled as I am in putting forth my opinions and beliefs and debating them with yours…
Glen, the ALP hasn’t agreed with everything.
No nuclear power. No to the stripping of collective bargaining rights.
Trying to paint them the same in order to blur the differences is a good ploy. But it fails on the evidence.
Oh… and yes to Kyoto.
HAHAHAHAH and who got rid of industry protection? Hint: it wasn’t the Liberals.
This thread is becoming tiresome, so I will now be deleting comments I don’t like. Please note that I don’t take kindly to whingeing about my comment deletions, nor do I enter into any correspondence with those who write to me about them.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Actually the Liberal (drys) started the movement towards this just because Labor actually implemented several of the reports that were commissioned under Fraser doesnt mean he doesnt deserve some credit for starting to look beyond protectionism…after all Reagan and Thatcher acknowledged that Fraser was the inspiration for both them in going about de-regulating their own economies…
361 Glen, that’s a bit better effort Glen. Reality is seeping back into the debate.
Just thought I had to bring you back to earth from your Howard Tugging General Waenk hubris.
Howard is not liked by all you know. He might even lose his own seat.
So if you want hubris and arrogance you just need to look at this sorry list: Downer, Abbott, Costello, Ruddock, Andrews et al.
These born to rule types make you sick don’t they? It’s not the Aussie spirit, is it?
Glen, you are an idiot.
Leigh Hubbard and Sharan Burrows are perfectly decent people. You may not agree with their left wing politics but to say what you have said about them is contemptible and shows how little you know.
Not everyone, you. Because you say stupid things.
You continue to parrot “Hawke/Keating couldn’t manage the economy” when everyone with rudimentary economics knows that they set up the modern Australian economy and laid the foundations for the current boom. There are plenty of legitimate arguments to be had about what public perceptions of these are, or whether every policy decision was good but your blanket claims show that you are either ignorant, or propagandising, or both.
You have been frothing “Ooh communists! Unionists!” like that is some kind of an argument. There is no factual basis to most of your claims and the mindset it is based on was out of date 30 years ago.
You bang on about the experience line when it has been demonstrated how often this line has failed to work. When asked to provide evidence that it has worked you go missing in action – but pop up a day later to repeat the same line as if nothing had happened.
And tell us again about how long Howard was Opposition leader comared to Brumby?
William: while you are deleting defamatory comments you might want to look at Glens #299.
#299 is stupid, but not defamatory.
Let’s lay off Glen for a while and play the “guess tmorrow’s Morgan 2PV” game instead. That’s much more fun.
And I won’t whinge if you delete that last one either, William as long as you check out the one I suggested
I keep trying, but I struggle to see the pattern.
Is it days with a T that the Greens are feral hippies and the other days that they are inner urban intelligentsia?
Your call – but I would have thought that calling people scum and “hard to find worse people” was borderline.
Well, I’m more and more convinced that the true voting intention hasn’t changed for months and probbaly won’t change for some weeks yet. So I’d say that the most likely chance is a small opposite movement from the last one and say 57.5/42.5
58/42
54/46
59/41
Mere abuse is not defamation. For something to be defamatory it has to be a specific allegation or characterisation that has the capacity to cause actual loss of reputation to the person defamed. An anonymous fool calling Sharan Burrow “scum” does not damage her reputation in the eyes of reasonable people. It probably enhances it.
Quite so, Adam.
Oi,
Cop yer smack and get on with it.
William’s blog. William’s rules
Bewdy! Another poll! Predict Libs will gain coupla points. Might even be reported in the GG.
ABC TV news, Sydney, 9.30 PM: “Govt forces Rudd into back-flip re ministerial appointments.” Or something like that.
Has to be a work experience kiddie in charge at the subs’ desk.
On the other hand the “gay” allegation about a Liberal minister was defamatory, because it would have damaged his reputation in the eyes of specific categories of people – his family, his party colleagues, his preselectors. Even if it was true a court could still find it to be defamatory, if it was spread maliciously and without a public interest justification. (The law on this varies from state to state.)
Here Here
The Speaker has made the ruling…now lets get on with the debate…Morgan poll (shudders)…im tipping a 55-45 or 54-46 result…hopefully more people in WA will have got a call from Morgan…
Also i am tipping the Nationals vote to be on 0.5%…a new record for Morgan…
Anyone know who is on lateline tonight? Don’t want to stay up if it isn’t worthwhile, thanks
Adam, I’m not a lawyer but I’m pretty sure that the uniform legislation enacted recently changes this for material published after Jan 1 2006 and justification is now a defence in all states.
Glen,
It is actually Hear! Hear!
Here Here is what John Howard will say when someone asks who is reponsible for the Liberal massacre that is about to take place.
Glen vs Pauline: terrific debate!
Tony Abbott’s comment linking Federal Labor to the problems at Sydney’s Royal North Shore Hospital: gutter politics at its worst, but of course you won’t see any criticism from either News Ltd or the ABC.
Speaking of the ABC: is Greg Jennett on some sort of retainer from the Howard Government? He really seems to hate Rudd and the Labor Party.
My guess is the real numbers are around 54/46
Which means Morgan will over estimate labor as usual and print numbers 56/44.
Incidently, didn’t anyone see the Chaser’s take on the Lateline/Downer interview last night. I’m surprised by the lack of comments on this blog
I laughed out loud so much my neighbours banged on the walls to shut me up.
Chaser is repeated late on Friday night. I recommend Downer haters should watch this
I agree Howard Hater – Abbott is way out of line with his comments – it is filthy politics and I hope it comes right back at him.
Morgan prediction 55/45
Tony didnt say Federal Labor were to blame for the incidents he merely said that the ALP runs the NSW State hospitals and these unfortunate events occurred under Labors watch and if you thought that the ALP did a bad job of running state hospitals why would you elect them to take over and run them all?
I dont defend Abbott all that much because he an uber religious conservative…but he points out Labor failures when he sees one…also Rudd hasnt got a great record when it comes to hospitals cutting out thousands of hospital beds in QLD in the 1990s…
Regardless of whoever is in power if that type of thing happens the party in charge Liberal or Labor should be questioned severely…
HH it is getting so tiresome to have to debate everybody where is Nostro or Steven???
Martin B, you may well be right. I’m not a lawyer either, and since I’m not a journalist anymore I no longer have a professional interest in this and haven’t been keeping up.
I don’t think the polls are moving at all at present – everyone is in suspended animation waiting for Howard to make up his bloody mind. 55/45.
Adam
Points taken, but it should be made clear that libel comes into play when an allegation, rumour, etc, is published. In any form. Slander, the most difficult to prove in court, is verbal. The charge of slander rarely succeeds. And, yes, different rules apply in different states. Truth is no defence in Victoria? It is a mish-mash, hence the reluctance of MSM to pursue investigitive journalism. It’s too hard, too costly.
Glen,
It is called “dog whistle” politics.
Communicating what you want to a select group, without exactly saying what you mean.
388,
You totally miss the point being made by #387 and others, including myself. The point is not about Labors policies regarding hospitals. The point is about making political hay out of a woman’s misery and sadness at a miscarraige. The *insensitivity* is the issue here. I don’t know if you have a partner, Glen. But imagine yourself in the shoes of that distressed husband who was talking to reporters yesterday or the day before. I think any male in their right mind [and Tony Abbot was NOT in his right mind nor was JH for refusing to rebuke him] would appreciate the delicate situation and give the couple time to grieve their loss in private. It is bad enough that it has to go through the media in the first place because of where the miscarraige took place.
The grieving parents didn’t need Tony Abbot giving this story another leg to stand on so that their heartache is drawn out longer.
Takes a woman to explain it to you.
Thanks Julie for the explanation. You got it!
Guess Morgan 56/44
The uncertainty regarding the date is becoming a problem, business-wise.
Glen: even you should be ashamed of Tony Abbott: take off those rose coloured Liberal Party supporter glasses.
So Julie are you saying that State Governments that run hospitals who end up causing this much grief to innocent people do not deserve to be criticised whatsoever?
I totally understand and respect the fact these people should be left alone, especially by the media but we cant just sit by and allow hospitals to act like this somebody has to say something about this, we and im sure they want accountability…
Ideally the media should have not interviewed them because obviously they were going through a horrific time but they (media) deliberately made it a news story…
This type of politics is called Ambulance Chasing. You will always find sad and tragic stories (just watch Today Tonight/Current Affair) out there. But to use personal tragedy as a political football is repugnant.
But then nothing surprises me with desperate Libs. Under Howard they have vacated the centre of politics and now occupies the loony hansonist fundamentalist right.
By vacating the centre, they allowed the ALP to claim it and become the mainstream again. This is the real story of the downfall of a once proud liberal party.
If Glen had any brains, he would be concerned about the state of his party and do something about it. If they lose, what rump will be left. If you lose your heart and sell your soul to the devil, all that you are left with is a vacuous vessel. They have no policies about the future and no vision.
The only passion they can still muster is negative and a hatred of Labor and Unions. They are a ghost party and an empty devoid of new ideas.
A sad and sorry tale…
Women should give birth at home, attended by a midwife. Childbirth isn’t an illness, should not take place in a hospital, and doesn’t require a doctor unless something goes wrong. If childbirth was returned to the home (or to birthing centres run by midwives), there’d be a lot less pressure on our public hospitals.
I think Pauline you should be asking some very stern questions about Morris Iemma and the NSW State Health Minister because as far as im concerned these people have a lot to answer for…but i guess you are so partisan that you can forgive the state of our hospitals because the ALP runs them…
Julie @ 392
Abbot is a poor excuse for a man.
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