Adelaide’s Advertiser newspaper today carries a slightly curious poll of voting intention in Boothby, held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a margin of 5.4 per cent. Conducted by phone from a sample of 649, it shows Southcott leading Labor candidate Nicole Cornes by an improbable 49 per cent to 32 per cent after distribution of the undecided. No two-party result is provided, but commenter Matthew Sykes has transcribed the paper’s large volume of generally unilluminating data from the poll throughout the previous comments thread. No doubt the Advertiser’s pollsters do their best, but my mind is drawn back to the final week of the state election campaign last March, when it ran a poll showing the Liberals neck-and-neck in Norwood and set to retain Hartley. Labor went on to win the seats with respective margins of 4.2 per cent and 4.6 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Advertiser Boothby poll
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516 Comments
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Julie explained to you Glen in vain that the problem is using this as a political football. Whoever is to be blamed should be blamed but don’t score political points of other people’s misfortune.
What about the sad state of the Liberal Party? You only want to answer part of my point? Of course.
“Abbot is a poor excuse for a man”
So is Julia Gillard.
#386….don’t you just hate thin cell walls.
396,
If anyone deserves criticism over the hospital crisis, be they the Federal Libs or the State Labor, this wasn’t the time nor the place.
I am not weighing in on the arguement over whose fault it is that the crisis exists nor how to fix it.
The media interviewing them initially wasn’t a problem. As far as the husband was concerned, that hopefully would bring attention to the problem and get it straightened out for future familes in similar circumstances.
Abbot was the only issue here. You can go crawl back under your rock along with Abbot and the rest of the front bench. Under the rocks is where we find mushrooms and fungus that grows because it can’t see the light of day.
So if you think it could make a political point out of someones misfortune Pauline then by your logic it was wrong to make a political point out of demonising small businesses that put staff on AWAs like the ALP did trying to score points of people supposed ‘misfortune’…and what about Labor making political points about Iraq saying its hopeless because people are dying so we should just pack up cos its so ‘terrible’…
The State Labor Government should shoulder full responsibilities for this and they ought to be ashamed…if you cant attack a level of government for failing its citizens how are you supposed to make the country better?
Glen you should enter politics as you refuse to debate the issue re Abbott.
Hello …………..
I have 4 children. My oldest is 21. Had I not been in a hospital when I went into labor with him he would have been stillborn.
This woman Cornes has had more scrutiny than most from day dot – it is well known amongst journalist circles that a certain journo scraped the bottom of the morality barrel in order to get a reaction out of her at one of her first interviews.
Glen the list of Lib policies for the future continues
1. WorkChoices Mark II
2. Nuclear Power Stations
3. 20 year war in Iraq
4. Join US in war on Iran
5. Abolish States
6. Abolish Elections
7. Promote Glen to Gov-General Waenk
9. Abolish Governor-General office
Howard’s rabbit in the hat is the rabbit scared and panicked running away from calling the election…
Funny there is no more talk of rabbits.
God and you think im a wacky right wing nut if i am one of those what does that make Pauline lol!
I am predicting a move back to the Coalition….not Labor policy announcements while the Coalition have got on with the job of governing and helping our farmers who need a helping hand…54/46 even if it is a Morgan poll which will undervalue the bush vote…
Adam says
” I’m a social democrat – but it’s a perfectly legitimate one and not at all the same as communism” .
What is a social democrat please explain…
And the Greens are full of naive marxists, although i am not a greenie i would like to see your evidence…
And finally if women give birth at home pressure would be taken of the public hospitals.. fair dinkum…
Adam put simply public hospitals are struggling because Governments in this country don’t fund them and because of an illogical private health rebate scheme from the Howard Government..
Time we either borrowed some money or spent more don’t you think.
And where do you get the midwives from Adam.. possibly opens the door to unskilled people entering the nursing field.
If men got pregnant childbirth would be considered an illness.
Glen is that 54/46 in favour of Coalition or Labor?
Please Explain?
Derek Corbett at 211 says it’s ‘the last time he’ll bait Glen’. It’s a sport on Poll Bludger and so much fun, why stop? That’s why Bill lets it run.
As for Gillard, the young uns love her ( at least the twenty-something boys with any interest in politics seem to) and Glen must be an absolute ‘glamour’ to be able to criticise Gillard for her looks.
Gerard Henderson actually predicted the Rudd/Gillard ‘dream team’ ascension at least two years ago in a Herald article, if memory serves me correctly.
GH is pretty funny, as he was a failed arbitration inspector in a former life – he railed in one of his columns about the poor oppressed small business people who had to pay penalty rates!
Maybe he should rail against the rip-off trolley collection contractors, supported by the big supermarkets paying kids working for these outfits as little as $5 per hour. If the businesses were incorporated they got away with it under SerfChoices via AWA’s, because there were no junior rates applicable to them under the ‘Fair Pay’ Standard or the AWA’s just stripped most conditions away. And is this exactly what the Rodent et. al. wanted? You Betcha!
The ‘greatest’ ‘Workplace Reformation’ program since ‘enterprise bargaining’ was introduced by Keating, which was introduced to kill the Unions and it nearly succeeded!
The Rodent tried to finish the job, but only succeeded in resurrecting the Far Left like the Spartacist League, not to mention re-invigorating the Unions by giving them an arch-enemy they could fight, instead of a sagging ALP ‘leadership’ they couldn’t fight, as their future appointments to parliamentary seats and government boards depend on ALP Governments’ largesse.
‘Protected by Law’ was one of the greatest bald-faced lies ever told by a Government with taxpayer’s money!
Labor should just re-run the Rodent’s original Serf Choices ads to remind people they weren’t ‘protected by law’ at all and that’s why they had to create a ‘fairness test’ for AWA’s.
Keep Glen on, as we will run out of things to say about dumb candidates from both parties before the election campaign even starts – come to think of it, we probably won’t, as there’s always a bunch of incompetents seeking elected office – it makes intelligent people like Garrett and McKew so very dangerous ( especially to their own parties). Garrett isn’t aligned, as far as I’m aware – but in his area he must ‘dance’ with the Right, as Bill and Adam could no doubt attest – I doubt he likes it, but then many compromises are no doubt required in order to gain sufficient power to achieve anything lasting, as Garrett no doubt wants to do. Don’t think he’s an absolute megalomaniac, but time will tell!
#413 exactly Paul K
Thommo @ 402
Great stuff. Just goes to prove my point that libs are essentially against women holding positions of power. In your universe, they should be barefoot and pregnant, cooking Father’s dinner. And silent. News for you – we have moved on since mediaeval times and – Shock, Horror, Probe! – they are now considered equals. They now have the vote!
Suggest you read a big book.
A few things RE Hospitals that the feds could fix.
1. Improve access the GPs. I live in Eden Monaro and I need to notify my doctor (or any doctor within 2 hours) at least 1 week prior to my illness. Where do I end up? AT THE HOSPITAL
2. When I get to the hospital what do I find? IT’S ALL OF PEOPLE WHO SHOULD BE IN AGED CARE
I think we all know whose responsibility aged care and doctors are.
3. Saying its the States fault doesn’t fix it.
This is all very silly and unproductive. See you all for tomorrow’s poll.
New Zealand has been able to reduce the number of hospital visits by putting resources into preventative medical treatment. Treating high risk groups of people before they get sick in a way to prevent their ever needing expensive medical treatment. Why isn’t Australia doing the same thing?
BaztheSpaz @ 415
Ok, sport. Just thought I was being a waste of space.
As for WorkChoices, I remember reading a comment from one of the legal eagles involved in drawing up the original legislation. Went something like: “Forget what they tell you – there is no protection for workers in this …” It was in the Fin. Review.
Quite agree those polls are very productive…
413
paul k Says:
September 27th, 2007 at 10:59 pm
If men got pregnant childbirth would be considered an illness.
…..
This kind of misses the point. Things can go wrong before, during and after confinement. If things go wrong, being in hospital and having qualified staff available is an excellent advantage to have. People who dismiss these things should reflect on how hard and how long women fought to have maternity wards and then maternity hospitals established, funded and supported.
I have been present at three births. Two were not easy, as they say. The third nearly came to an untimely and tragic end. Luckily it did not. In each case, having access to hospitals with skilled staff who knew what to do was essential, in fact life-saving, on two occasions. The idea that these are somehow dispensable luxuries is, really, just idiotic.
Paul K they now have a system in the Uk which provides bonuses to doctors on the basis of them say stopping patients from smoking or getting patients to eat healthy foods.. or to exercise far more often..
This kind of preventative medicine could be tried here.. instead of the bonus schemes of getting patients out of hospital at quicker rates.. or seeing more patients…
I am uncomfortable saying it. but more than a pregnancy miscarried in NSW yesterday: integrity and decency suffered the same fate.
Really, this episode symbolises so much of what is wrong in the public health system: not enough nurses, not enough beds, not enough doctors, not enough money, not enough willingness to fix things. Instead we have seen a cruel opportunism on parade. It is really quite shameful.
Agree.. but plenty of beds, champagne, beautiful carpeted floors and yummy food across the road in the private hospital.
405 Glen Says: September 27th, 2007 at 10:33 pm
You’re comparing an employee contract with losing a child? Only a school-boy could say something so stupid.
Optimist (425) and others – what happened to that woman sounded terrible, and no doubt a tragic situation for the people involved. But i wonder just how much blame can be sheeted home to the hospital. Yes, hospitals are under-funded, and they could be more efficiently run, but I’m sure if any of you has spent a weekend night in casualty, you’ll know how chaotic it is. At the risk of being indelicate, the woman in question was suffering a miscarriage. There’s probably nothing that could’ve been done to save her baby. It sounds like she was treated a little insensitively, but it’s quite possible that she was there at the same time as victims from, say, a car accident, people whom perhaps the hosptial staff could do something about. That’s how triage works.
None of this is probably much comfort to the woman in question (or her husband), but I do find these “hospitals in crisis” stories a tad tiresome. Seems like a soft target to me – a commonly held misconception. Let’s not forget – hospitals are places where sick people go, so it’s not such a surprise to know that distressing things happen in them. I have to say that most of my, my friends’ and family’s experiences in them have been pretty good (illness and injury notwithstanding).
Pi only someone with the intelligence of a small child could not comprehend my basic post which was in plain simple english that you couldnt understand but for your benefit Pi ill run you through it again…
Other left wingers were saying it was wrong to make a political point out of other peoples suffering (suffering in general) so it is fair to say that if according to those Laborites it is fair to use peoples suffering for political points such as on IR or Iraq that it is being hypocritical to attack Abbott for supposedly doing the same thing…
I think you were going to far to say i am comparing the death of a child with an employee contract i wasnt doing that i was pointing out the ALP supporters hypocrisy for attack Abbott when the ALP make political points out of peoples suffering as well…
What’s more surprising is your failure to condemn the ALP State Government for failing the Health System but noooo because they are Labor it wasnt their fault lets beat up on Tony Abbott for pointing out the failures of Labor on Health supposedly ‘their issue’…
Holy crap! Could Joe Hockey be any more out of touch! He says that HE should be able to negotiate an AWA with John Howard, and if he did he says he would earn about double his current $205,000 per year salary!
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22493525-952,00.html
“I’d love to have a bonus scheme and I’d love to have arrangements that rewarded on the basis of hours of work. I’d happily trade off everything,” he said.”
Basis for hours of work!? That sounds to me like an AWARD!!! He gets paid $205,000 a year for god sake, that means you can’t complain if you need to work on Sunday or on a public holiday!
I thought Hockey was a well meaning bloke who was in the unfortunate position of having to flog a dog of a policy. But now he comes across as being more out of touch than Howard, Costello and Abbott.
paul k @ 420
“New Zealand has been able to reduce the number of hospital visits by putting resources into preventative medical treatment. Treating high risk groups of people before they get sick in a way to prevent their ever needing expensive medical treatment. Why isn’t Australia doing the same thing?”
I must be getting soft. As an expat Kiwi I never thought I’d let one like that go past …..
Seriously, I completely agree. Mum & Dad are aged (89 & 92) but live in their own unit in Hamilton, are visited regularly, and are provided with housekeeping several times a week to help keep them independent and out of a home. While both protested at the time, they were given and setup with an adjustable, aluminium walking stick each with the explanation that if one walking stick in ten prevented a fall and a resulting breakage, it was very cheap insurance. They each have their personal call system and have assistance, a heated pool, a library and meals available if necessary as well as weekly social events. Dad won the snooker Comp, held every Tuesday for several months. Fired him right up it did. : )
Makes heaps of sense, allows minimal disruption to their lives and is a win any way you want to measure it.
It’s simple commonsense, unavailable in the capital cities ..
429 Glen Says: September 28th, 2007 at 12:15 am
You can run through it as many times as you like… you think it’s comparable to use the death of someones child to score political points, to someones employment contract to score political points.
THAT’s what you said.
I have an 11 week old child, so I know what I’m talking about. What Abbott said was sickening. You are defending the indefensible. Again.
Hugo. My recent experience in a regional hospital, and later at St V’s in Melbourne was also pretty good. But the fact is that the triage nurse whom I was congratulating on his good work told me that he was quitting for a job as a process worker in a pie factory, because the pay was better and there was no stress. Two ward nurses were discussing leaving because they couldn’t get child care. The best nurse in Melb spent most of her time compiling performance stats.
If we don’t spend some resources on nursing care, then we get the health system we deserve! We’ve got to make it more worthwhile for these dedicated people to save lives, rather than make meat pies. we’ve got to give them promotion to a worthwhile position at the hospital coalface, and not into a job that any 2 bit accountant could do better.
BTW I really do feel strongly about this!
When Glen and Pi go head to head, tedium prevails. Please stop.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Joe Hockey – “…I’d happily trade off everything”
You already did Joe and it shows; your intelligence.
So tired. Call the election, please. Thanks cte.
Women should give birth at home, attended by a midwife. Childbirth isn’t an illness, should not take place in a hospital, and doesn’t require a doctor unless something goes wrong. If childbirth was returned to the home (or to birthing centres run by midwives), there’d be a lot less pressure on our public hospitals.
Adam 398
Hmm.
Childbirth may not be a medical disorder, but it is probably the most dangerous time in the life of a mother and a child. One of the few big advances in clinical medicine has been safer birthing.
The solution is to have birthing centres attached to hospitals, where women can give birth without interference with a midwife of their choice. But if something does go wrong during or just after birth (and it frequently does), then they and the child can be whipped through the doors straight into the hospital proper.
An interesting diversion into the health system in the wee small hours between polls. Somewhere between Optimist at 425 and Hugo at 428 lies the truth of the Royal North Shore matter I think… it is true a triage nurse would drop a miscarriage in progress down the list, especially if it had started in earnest, and we do not know what circumstances prevailed in the A&E at the time. And yet, there is the stark and simple matter of human dignity to be considered, the horror of meeting such a trauma in the toilet down the hall instead of on a trolley or in a bed with your grieving husband next to you. Is it worth diverting some resources for a few hours to make that happen? Even at risk of bumping an asthmatic child into the waiting room a few hours longer? Hard to say unless you can replay every minute of the terrible night and weigh the circumstances.
The points above re preventative care are well made. My wife, a trained nurse, now works in Public Health. She’s asleep now and wouldn’t be thrilled if I go in there demanding the exact numbers, but she has talked in the past about the best accepted longitudinal studies and what they say about the fantastic leveraging of preventative dollars in health care. Spend a hundred bucks helping someone give up fags when they’re thirty, you save twenty thousand a quarter century later on the lung cancer/gangrene/cardio treatments. You can apply those numbers to any number of problems… skin and cervical cancer, osteoporosis, heart disease, diabetes…
The problem is democracy. Such measures cost big dollars to reach the whole target population, but the pay-offs can be a generation away. In political speak, that means you’re putting a hole in your budget, but helping top up some other bugger’s surplus way down the track. No points in it at all.
Unless you’re good at ‘the vision thing’ and can sell it to the electorate because, hey, it’s a good idea and the right thing to do.
Sorry for the long blurt after interminable lurking.
Morgan 57/43. I’m guessing of course, but so are you all.
Re 410,
Funny that
….. Shanahan even gives up the game this Friday morning too, if for only one day 
. I actually wrote a comment to his story (don’t know if it will be published) and started it by “nice to see you write a positive article for a change”.
The Morgan poll. It’s being taken with the footy finals so that may impact on the result.
I reckon its going to turn towards the govt. two reasons. people are getting sick of the campaign and the govt’s line that its not campaigning hasn’t been discounted. My thinking is it will show a 3 point move towards the govt. If it doesn’t I thing everyone has made up their mind and the Libs are all but defeated.
I think Morgan will be similar to Galaxy and ACN online.
57-43.
I’m a little surprised that the ALP aren’t making more of the fact that Howard is holding off on calling the election, hoping things will swing his way.
The 2004 election was October 9th. There’s a decent chance Howard won’t even have called this year’s election by then…
It reeks of desperation and the ALP should be capitalising on it. They should be painting Howard as gutless, afraid to face the people.
Why aren’t they?
No time to check if this has already been posted. The Oz has resurrected this poll and you can still vote, about Wayne Swan as Treasurer.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Misty, they are. It’s just noone particularly cares.
CTEP – Well if they’ve been saying it in the last week I don’t feel the media have been reporting it!
The October 9 2004 date is interesting. Interesting because there was a tip from a bureaucrat on Crikey that the current government TV advertising was scheduled to end on October 9 this year (presumably at the latest – I suspect they can easily pull them earlier).
I wonder if Howard realises that holding off calling the election until after the 2004 poll date will leave him open to some pretty serious criticism.
So the October 9 date may be a tentative deadline of sorts for him to have called the election by.
Just a thought…
Howard interviewed on 3AW this morning was asked if he’d stay on in Bennelong if he won the seat but lost the election. The answer was “I don’t know” then waffle. He”l be off fater than a honeymooners if that series of events happens. So much for the fine people of Bennelong.
When will todays poll be released?
Morgan is usually released about 1.00 pm. It has been a little earlier and a little later but that’s about the time.
Ok thanks Gary Bruce, do they just release it via their website or leak it to different news organisations beforehand. Are they aligned to any media organisation?
If anyone believes Howard will remain as a backbencher in any circumstance they’re deluding themselves. Can you imagine him flying Qantas? Having a backbencher’s office at Parliament House? No way…
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