The Australian today offers another editorial on the subject of opinion poll commentary which, despite its querulous tone, is somewhat less absurd than its notorious dummy spit of July 12. The paper nonetheless contrives to exempt itself from its critique of the polling analysis glut, placing the blame on “the rise of the Galaxy Poll and Fairfax newspapers’ attempt to become competitive against Newspoll with its AC Neilson (sic) survey” (to say nothing of the efforts of “a number of internet blogs”). So when its reporter Tony Barrass observes a surprisingly weak Newspoll result for the Western Australian state government and finds federal implications galore, you can rest assured that this is not merely “the reporting of politics as if it were a sporting match”, such as you might get from Michelle Grattan. We should instead consider ourselves privileged spectators to the exercise of The Australian’s mystical power to unlock the hidden secrets behind the only opinion poll that matters.
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David Jones is stepping in to the debate about election date, the longer it’s called the closer it gets to Christmas shopping time, and if DJs doesn’t want that, you’d bet small businesses won’t either. It’s probably a non-issue, but I’m betting that it will be Nov 24, gives them the first week of sitting in Oct to get major coverage due to QT and then a short election campaign.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/26/2044129.htm?section=justin
We did up with a Denis Denuto for PM.
is my comment at 247 still being moderated or is that a typo?
Call the Election Please @ # 248:
Pretty transparent, isn’t it, that the Libs internals are just nowhere as good as they’re having us believe? If they were, JH would have been off to Yarralumla by now, surely.
Well optimist all I can say is at law school they told me over and over and over and over and over and over and over again that a law degree was the new arts degree – not much use on its own but a real door opener. Now there are complete clowns like me that passed, but really (and I pick their candidates because I don’t mind our equivalents that win) even the stupidest of us with a law degree is going to give the country more than Randall and Tuckey; even just in the campaign. Yes call me a man hating elitist feminazi …. could you teach me how to spell it as well.
Dreyfuss/Isaacs differ from Hawke/Mitchell in a number of respects:
1. Isaacs may one day change sides. Mitchell cannot and will not, at least not if the electorate continues to cover the parts of Sydney it currently covers.
2. Dreyfuss may or may not be a good candidate for a marginal seat, and may or may not bring legal and intellectual firepower to the ALP front bench. However, Hawke is not a good candidate for any seat, although given the state of the NSW Libs, I spose they were going to put him somewhere. But there can be no doubt about what he’ll be bringing to Canberra.
3. Dreyfuss, as a barrister, should have formed some judgment about what to say and when to say it. I can see Hawke being told to STFU, especially by his colleagues in less socially conservative, more marginal seats.
So I did a quickie plot – massaged the newspoll data (thanks for the link) and plotted the primary vote vs days before the election. Result can be seen here:
http://www.interlink.com.au/anthony/images/elections-closing.png
If you look at it, you can see that in a couple of cases the vote got closer – 87 and 93 are the obvious ones. But this is hardly a full list – in the other 5 in the plot, this isn’t a clear cut case.
If you want to play with the data yourself (the newspoll data is in an annoying format with the dates), let me know.
Dreyfus only has one S
Jasmine,
hold on one bloody second ok. Where do you get off suggesting that i think any of things about you? Man-hating, elitist feminazi? WTF????
I’m hoping that you have me confused with someone else because if you’re really trying to characterise me as someone who would use that kind of language and base argument, well I’m afraid I’ll have to tell you to stick it up your arse. I thought i was discussing the issue of what makes a good candidate, not getting into a slinging match with someone who appears to view me as little better than pond scum and slightly worse than Andrew Bolt – spit right in my face, why don’t ya?
Ultimately, what i’m saying is that the standard of representation in Parliament is pretty crap – part of the reason for that is the incredibly superficial judgements people make about candidates. It is stupid and superficial to discount a candidate based on his or her appearance. It is equally stupid and superficial to give a candidate credit simply for having stuck it out to finish a bloody law degree – am i not making that clear?
You are right that law degrees are the new arts degrees:
any dimwit with cash and time can pick one up in between marathon sessions of daytime t.v and waiting for the next shipment of pot.
Forgot to mention – the points on the plot are newspoll, except for the final point at X=0 which is the election result. The sudden spikes at the end of each line (upward or downward) are Newspoll getting the wrong result
Josh,
my mention of Hawke in Mitchell was only to highlight the short-term thinking of factional power-bropkers in deciding on candidates. Your analysis is interesting – i just wanna make it clear that the parallel lies in the fact that candidate selection by factional powerbrokers (like those who selected both Dreyfus for ALP and Hawke for Libs) is often short-sighted and can present problems for the party dowen the track.
It will be interesting to see if Hawke does STFU – if he doesn’t, more problems for the NSW Libs which will hurt their party on a wider level and more proof of how damaging that short term factional thinking can be.
Sorry optimist I was encouraging you to do it prospectively if you wish, I’m guessing now you don’t. Wasn’t telling you off for having already done it. And other than the nazi reference which bit of that is bad??? I’m confused?
anthony@255:
Having trouble reading that graph (but thanks for the effort). Are you saying the ALP gained 15% of the primary vote in the 1983 election campaign? And that Keating in 1993 was going onwards and upwards all the way until the election campaign, whereupon his vote collapsed (but he survived anyway)? That’s not my recollection of events… so I’m probably reading the graph wrong.
Jasmibne (170),
It’s because I am determined, not, as others say, stubborn.
Optimist @ 257. Suggest you reread the post at 253 with your irony detectors switched on. She wasn’t having a go at you. Sounds to me like a tongue-in-cheek self-deprecating comment at the end of her post =-)
Chris (262) – all I can say is – I wish you well wise person.
Jasmine,
the man-hating bit and the elitist bit – those were the bad bits. You don’t go around pre-empting peoples views by suggesting that they will mount that kind of argument – it is really offensive. Read the first two lines of my last post responding to you – it sums it up.
One more thing on the candidate issue – there is NO question that our parliament needs more women. At the same time, we need more quality candidates of both genders. We should not be sacrificing one to achieve the other – the ALP could find any number of great female candidates that would put Cornes to shame – if you have difficulty grasping that, I suggest that you go to the parliament website and look up the valedictory speech that Carmen Lawrence gave last week – it is one of the finest speeches by a member of the House that I have ever read! It breaks my heart to see someone like Dr. Lawrence leave the parliament only to see candidates like Nicole Cornes put up as replacements (and yes, I know Cornes isn’t running for Freemantle). It is about quality candidates – some of the best performers and minds that the ALP has are women (don’t get me started about Penny Wong), but while people like Cornes are the only ones making it into Parliament to help build the numbers, things aren’t likely to change anytime soon.
Juz, no, the number is the difference in primary vote, with +ve meaning the coalition was ahead. So in 1993 the graph shows the coalition getting further ahead in the polls until just before the election proper.
In 1993, 2 weeks out the ALP was behind in newspoll 46 to 42.5 on primary, 2 days before newspoll had them behind 45 to 44.6, and the result had them with a primary vote of 44.8 vs coalition’s 44.3.
If someone can suggest a clearer way to show the data, I’m all ears
I’m all for having more women in Parliament but can the ALP please weed out the air heads!
How hard is it to study a cheat sheet on Labor’s policies before going on air…she has no chance of winning now the stigma is attached and she wont attract any extra votes despite a SA swing…after all look what happened when Jan McFarlane mucked up on radio over taxes and Keenan smacked her in 2004.
Optimist at 259
I agree with what you say. Although, whilst Dreyfus (no wonder I couldn’t find him on Wikipedia – thanks Adam) may be a tool of the powerbrokers, Hawke IS the powerbroker.
I think the initial preselection of Towke is another example (and in a seat the Libs could possibly lose)…
Longer term the practice of preselecting people who really can’t claim to represent their community/Australia in outlook, philosophy or attitude will be a huge problem for the majors. Sometimes the hardheads from head office can interfere to fix the perceived problem (as they did with Towke). More often the hardheads are themselves the problem (which I think is your point).
As to what makes a good candidate? Well, at least looking like you represent mainstream opinion in your electorate, can talk to issues and seem/sound reasonable, is a start. From what I’ve seen Dreyfus can at least manage this. I have no idea how hard he will work or how the electors of Isaacs will take to him. For his part Hawke says he DOES represent mainstream opinion in his (and my) electorate. I beg to differ…
Glen – I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you mean “weeding out” the male and female airheads…let’s not start another debate about unfair targeting of female candidates.
Can we also have the airheads in the coalition weeded out as well please Glen? Yes, I am looking at Brendan Nelson.
I can assure you Diana there is alot of air going round in Parliament from both sides male and female…but seriously how hard is it to get a candidate who can comprehend basic policies…why on earth would someone want an airhead as their local member?
I can say without any doubt that at least half of the MPs in Parliament shouldn’t be there because they are hopeless, stupid, have no chance of promotion or remove the possibility of bringing some talented people…
The Advertier is anti-Cornes because she used to write for the Sunday Mail. Her candidacy was announced on the front page of the Sunday Mail, which has been sympathetic to her. It’s a matter of two machoi editors being hairy chested.
And ESPECIALLY Danna Vale.
Nelson is not an airhead, he is a medical graduate and a GP by definition that makes him an intelligent person…perhaps you were thinking of Kevin Andrews or Chris Ellison….
I also think the Advertiser (and the ABC) are against her because she does not act like an ordinary politician. I think that is her strength.
On Labor’s side Garrett, Swan, Albanese are all airheads
On the Coalition’s side Andrews, Ellison, Truss…
Here’s a question for everyone: given that there are no specific criteria for politicians, what qualifications/attributes should they have? I wouldn’t agree that some kind of degree, law or medicine or anything else is a pre-requisite. What do we expect our politicians to have backgrounds in?
There is a dedicated Nicole thread if anyone has missed it.
Perhaps because she had the temerity to leave the fold and go over to the ‘dark’ side. Anyway, Murdoch never has been big on employee loyalty.
At least the voters of Boothby know who the Labor candidate is. Here in Mayo it could be next door’s cat for all I know. Not so much as a whisper from whoever it is.
I assume they chose a party hack with few expectations given its normally considered a safe Lib seat, but with the party’s strong polling in this state there might have been a chance if they had a well regarded local standing.
The Dems gave Lexy a fright in 1998 by fielding a well known candidate, folk singer John Schumann. From memory the margin was less than 2%.
Intelligent
Potential Leadership/Promotion prospects
Represent diverse background not just Union members
Those are my 3
All I want for Christmas this year is Johnnie’s concession speech ;-D
While we are at it, lets just weed out the whole cabinet
….
Optimist perhaps my humor was too dry. I wasn’t pre-empting anything I was giving you permission to call me names in what I thought was a self-effacing humorous way. Obviously something went wrong with my humor. I don’t know what I’m sorry. I will note that the rest of your post highlights almost exactly what I consider to be wrong with the attacks on Ms Cornes.
You can’t defame someone who is dead.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2007/09/25/1190486310966.html
Just another terrible Labor Party man.
Wash this mans mouth out with soap and make him listen to 24 hours worth of Midnight Oil.
Glen, I would point out that members of unions are not one type of person. Union members come from all walks of life, from all kinds of professions. OK, they’re likely to be ALP supporters, but under the circumstances, I hardly think that is a problem!
As for promotion prospects, that really isn’t an issue for me. My local member, Rod Sawford, was never promoted and he was elected to Port Adelaide in 1988 (by-election), but he’s been a well-liked and able representative of his electorate. Not everyone can be promoted, there’d be no backbench.
http://myspace.com/meetthepeople
I would like a local member who listens to all of his electorate, someone who does try to make things better, someone who will reply with rational answers, someone who cares.
But I get a fridge calendar, and The Somlyay Report once a year. A 61 year old time server who has delivered nothing.
Anyone who thinks Nelson is intelligent hasn’t seen him interviewed on Lateline. http://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Aabc.net.au%2Flateline+brendan.nelson
This one was a spectacular highlight:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s1846174.htm
I know he has a medical degree – clearly that’s not a guarantee of smarts.
Remember that when he was Education Minister, he came out in favour of teaching intelligent design. I’m sure the lecturers who taught him biological sciences back at University must have felt particularly proud that day.
I know that Diana i am not an airhead i merely point out you could put non-union, centre-left people in parliament they dont always have to be Union officials despite their different occupations…but inspite of this they only represent 20% of people yet 100% of Labor’s Parliamentary Party in Federal Parliament.
Ruawake all i get from Michael Danby is a fridge calender too and i dont see Melbourne Ports getting better under his watch.
But Glen we will win Fairfax
Diana (284) – I’ve heard it said that some 40% of union members voted Liberal in 2004, so maybe Glen has a point!
In all seriousness, though, that figure (if true) is the reason in a nutshell why Labor is so far ahead. When Howard brought in WorkChoices, he said to those people (some 800,000 people, most likely concentrated in marginal mortgage-belt seats) that they had to choose between Howard and their union. I suspect those people have made their choice.
What are you going on about? The ALP is the political wing of the trade union movement, don’t you know anything about Australian political history? What you merely point out is airheadish.
I’m glad I’m not the only person who thinks this. Nairn’s response to the questions in parliament on this matter were absolutely breathtaking, and I was astounded that his side of politics seemed so relaxed about the matter. Regardless of what else happens during the campaign, Eden-Monaro will definitely not be leaving my “Labor gain” column.
*puts her tongue in her cheek* didn’t you get the memo William, boys are allowed to say things like that it is ok, it is really dud female politicians we need to get rid of first.
The Nairn was also the person who was only too keen to confirm, that the former member for Charlton, had a complaint lodged against her by a comcar driver.
Oops – blockquotes improperly nested.
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