The Australian today offers another editorial on the subject of opinion poll commentary which, despite its querulous tone, is somewhat less absurd than its notorious dummy spit of July 12. The paper nonetheless contrives to exempt itself from its critique of the polling analysis glut, placing the blame on “the rise of the Galaxy Poll and Fairfax newspapers’ attempt to become competitive against Newspoll with its AC Neilson (sic) survey” (to say nothing of the efforts of “a number of internet blogs”). So when its reporter Tony Barrass observes a surprisingly weak Newspoll result for the Western Australian state government and finds federal implications galore, you can rest assured that this is not merely “the reporting of politics as if it were a sporting match”, such as you might get from Michelle Grattan. We should instead consider ourselves privileged spectators to the exercise of The Australian’s mystical power to unlock the hidden secrets behind the only opinion poll that matters.
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407 Comments
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Hmm, Mumble’s website had a comment up about Tony Barrass’ piece, but it’s disappeared. Has Mitchell threatened to “go” Peter again? Or perhaps it’s simply discretion being the better part of valour …
Either way the GG should remember the adage: if you’re in a hole, don’t try to dig your way out.
For the record, I predicted a Nov 24 election back in July, amid some ramblings about hanging on till January.
link
Haiku, I believe Peter has simply removed a factual error. His comment stated that the poll was a repackaging of last week’s quarterly federal figures, when it was in fact a new poll of state voting intention.
Hi,
As I’ve been overseas for the last couple of weeks (with limited access to Australian news), can someone explain to me how the Government seems to have the momentum in the election pre-campaign?
Was it just the Rudd tax gaffe? Or was it a combination with the 55/45 newspoll? I would have thought that a Galaxy 56/44 a month ago would have been considered a disaster for the government…
Glen @ 292
Your views might be a little more credible if your claims weren’t so unrelated to the facts.
Neither Rudd nor Gillard, the leader and deputy leader, come from unions. Neither does Garrett, nor (I think) Swan (Shadow Treasurer), McLelland (Foreign Affiars), nor a whole bunch of others on the front bench.
Have no doubt, the AMA is the best little union going around, and it’s full of small business types who are absolutely raking it in under Howard’s regime. I have a lot to do with them in my line of work, and while some of them are intelligent and compassionate, there’s a substantial number who are simply venal, incompetent and not very bright, even in their supposed area of expertise. I could tell you stories that would make your hair stand on end, but will restrain myself, in case you throw up on your keyboards. The good ones I know tend to get out of the AMA and join the Doctors Reform Society, if they can, i.e., what you’ve got to do in terms of employment. The AMA, in my view, and interestingly in the view of some of my medico mates, should be smashed, but probably won’t be. Goodness, all things are relative aren’t they, me suggesting smashing a union!
Swing Lowe at 303, for what it’s worth, I think it’s about either the text or subtext going through a good deal of the discussion about how the MSM, particularly the GG, operates in shaping the narrative of the election. Personally, I think there is a concerted effort going on within the Murdoch press and a subtly shifted ABC, that, for example, pointedly ignores Costello’s inability to talk about something central to his portfolio vs. Rudd being caught on the back foot when asked about an accountant type question about tax scales. Costello’s statement and its import is ignored, Rudd’s is latched onto and amplified. In my ‘waters’, as it were, despite the polling, I’m most concerned about the effect that the twists and turns that Rove type tactics will have on the election.
Swing Lowe, the 55-45 Newspoll was a 4% fall from a 59-41 blowout the fortnight before. The commentariat all said the govt had had a good parliamentary week. The 56-44 Galaxy would indeed have been a disaster, but it was a 1% drop from a 57-43 Galaxy four weeks ago.
Adam @ 233 & William @ 296 I suspect that you are correct re Eden Monaro. The Phelps issue was more or less the lead item on local radio stations for the entire day it broke & Nairn/Phelps were absolutely hammered in talkback programs on those same stations. If there is a swing on in that electorate their efforts on this issue will probably confirm & compound it.
Swing Lowe - welcome back.
All I can say is that any momentum the government has is perceived and nothing more. They are trying their hardest, but achieving very little change in the electorate. News Ltd papers are also doing their absolute best to help the government, but having no luck either.
Business as usual, pretty much. Obviously you’ll have noted that the election hasn’t been called yet.
the coalition shenanigans have already started, trying to tie Rudd in with union problems.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22487007-5005962,00.html
#296 on Gary Nairn and his chief of staff.
I agree with you William. Perhaps you will also understand why on your previous threads I have asked that contibutors eschew any comparisons to fascists or fascism when commenting on the policy positions of our present parliamentarians however much the contributors might disagree with those paliamentarians’ positions. Apart from being offensive, such comparisons are also inaccurate and demonstrate an (alarming) lack of understanding of totalitarianism and its fascist manifestation.
Yep, Judy, heard the Fed. rep. for the union on PM this evening saying it’s all been properly accounted and audited. It’s just more faux electioneering rubbish. Like no one is pursuing those earlier reports about the supposed fracas between Ms. Rein’s U.K. company and supposed stoush with U.K. unions. Utter rubbish. You can bet that this was dropped like a hot potato because it had nowhere to go; same with this. Watch out for the MSM, particularly the GG and ’shifted’ ABC, courtesy of the Howard stacked Board. Unless Labor get in this election, this country will be no better than Russia under Putin.
According to Godwin’s law it’s only a matter of time…
Glen, it sounds like you are stuck in Melbourne Ports?
For the last two elections the libs have been ahead on Primaries in this seat. Labor has only got through on preferences from the Greens.
And for the last three years, there has been the biggest influx of lib voters, either into Port Melbourne (believe me I work in an industry where the word is to go find a home in Port Melbourne) or some of those giant residential towers on the south side of the Yarra that have just been completed.
IF there is one issue that has been completely missed in the pre-election analysis, it is how the seat of Melbourne Ports is grdually transitioning from a safe labor seat to a potential gain for the libs at some point in the future.
Keep swinging Glen
Well, well, well. The Oz has reported on their “union power” poll. The resulting article will hardly surprise:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22487254-11949,00.html
The figures seem to match the Coalition primary vote.
Laurie oakes was gong on about a push for Julai to be treasuer
what rot
IF there was a push from the left, surely it would be for the guru himself, Lindsay Tanner.
Anyhoo it was just to sell more copies of the Bulletin
[Well, well, well. The Oz has reported on their “union power†poll. The resulting article will hardly surprise:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22487254-11949,00.html
They’re really seem to be running out of things to write about when they use a non-randomised poll as the basis for an article.
But hey, they are the experts when it comes to polls, so I guess I can’t argue with their un-scientific methods.
Fagin @ 315:
Funny that. Last night when I went to bed there were 1800 votes that had 47% saying unions will have no effect and now that is suddenly 28%?
15% said all encompassing influence last night and now that shows 39%.
Can there be a worse form of journalism or a worse basis on which to base a story? Quite obviously on-line polls are nonsense rigged by those with the desire and will power, as we know most are. It is amazing that the supposed premier paper uses nonsense data to write a story it wants to write to run down Labor. Why bother with the pretence of a poll? If they were truly serious they would make them hard to manipulate - tie them to IP number and not cookies.
More trash from the new rubbish dump of newspaper.
Jeez, werent the Gaezeditorial bunker just whining about the proliferation of mickey mouse polls?
Another demented low in ‘late Reichstag’ journalism.
Just watched Gerard Daffy, head of Sportsbet, on Agenda. He doesn’t believe his own betting stats. He says that because “the PM” (as he kept calling Howard) came back in 2001 and 2004 he wouldn’t be surprised if it happened again. He came across as a real Howard cheerleader. In fact I came away thinking I had just watched the TV version of The GG.
Perhaps our wonderful Possum could do an article beating up the GG about this online poll and ask the GG how they can simply wash away the 28% of people saying there will be no influence. If the GG has to come out defending itself saying that people were spoofing the online poll, it would make the whole article useless.
Well if he believes that how about giving us better odds on Labor?
What do we expect our politicians to have backgrounds in?
Diana 279
Life.
Nelson was in the AMA
BX Tom 299
Even worse, Nelson was HEAD of the AMA!
Re: Labour having a high percentage of union people. Doesn’t the conservative side have a high percentage of lawyers?
And Alex Hawke is a mistake the Libs are going to come to deeply regret if they let have much real power. Hardcore nutters and thugs like him can easily scare off voters for several election cycles.
# 320
Gary, why was it significant that Gerard Daffy referred to JWH as “the PM”?
The lefty in me is pleased by the rise of people like Alex Hawke in the Liberal Party. He’s seriously unpleasant, and I hope the remaining stub of the Coalition after the election makes him an opposition frontbencher. Someone like him needs to get all the media coverage he can, just to make clear how bad he is.
The Australian citizen in me is dismayed. His chunk of the liberal party is more than happy to bring the nasty culture-war type politics of the US here. Suddenly instead of worrying about things that matter, we’ve got a bunch of heavies screaming about abortion and homosexuality and getting media coverage for it.
“You can catch our repeat on Friday night after Alexander Downer makes an arse of himself on Lateline again.” - The Chaser
Garrett will be on Lateline tonight.
“Nelson was HEAD of the AMA!”
And thats the question noone is asking: how many other former union bosses are there on the Lib frontbench?
hmmm??!!
The problem with that is when they learn how to project to the public what they are not. Just remember Howard has managed to trick the public for so long whilst hiding what is really driving him.
Left E,
And you think this NT ALP Bob Collins is any better than Brendan Nelson?
If you are interested in ecstasy MDMA, then I am interested in your intelligent views, and platform for substance law reform.
If however you are just commie/socialist trash like Gillard, then Australia has no further use for you.
All this leaking of “polls”- advertiser, internal & online- is all to generate faux momentum for the government, whether it is successful is yet to be seen.
I just don’t buy them.
“Well, well, well. The Oz has reported on their “union power†poll.”
The Australian really has become a joke. What about all their talk about how they are the best at correctly interpreting polling data?? The chances of this poll being hijacked by a bot or just abused in some dodgy way is very high. It is nowhere near being reliable.
This rag of a paper cannot be taken seriously. I actually feel quite embarrassed for them. Would they have written the article if the results showed that most people thought that unions would not have such a huge influence on a Labor government?
It is becoming increasingly apparent that Rupert Murdoch is planning to back Howard for this election. Well, good luck to him. Fortunately with the level of cynicism in the electorate as high as it currently is, I don’t think his influence is going to decide the election.
If only we had an alternative national newspaper…
It’s not just me who’s noticed the ABC doing its best to get Howard reelected. Has the Rodent promised them extra funding if they’re nasty to Mr Rudd? Tonight’s 7PM News was extremely biased in favour of the Rodent.
With phrases like “socialist/commie trash” Nafe, you have just excused yourself from any intelligent, informed policy discussion.
Thanks for those puzzling non sequitir remarks Naff.
I see a bright future in local government.
Which is probably just as well, come December!
The Howard govt by its hand picked mindless sycophants are in the process of turning the ABC into a TV version of the Govt Gazt - a murdoch station. Howard dirties everything he touches.
Like I said earlier Jones, O’Brien and Brissenden may as well quit a pre-select somewhere - or run for the Senate next year.
Kina are you seriously calling Kerry O’Brien a sycophant?
No dont let those three go from the abc, their editorial influence is essential to stem the declining balance of the national broadcaster.
No I am calling O’Brien, Jones and Brissenden the only remaining humans. They may as well as escape. We all know who the overseers are.
Nafe,
Looks like you should be looking closer to home for communists.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/09/no-friends-howard-dumped-from-right.html
320 Gary Bruce Says:
Probable says alot about the state of their book ( they lose if Rudd wins) and not much else.
Howard and his Cabinet drifted further to the right leaving the centre for Rudd and has forced his former right-wing factions futher to the right - now the extreme right.
Howard a communist…hehehe
Howard Hater, when you see the ABC working to re-elect Howard, you are experiencing a paranoid delusion. Seek medical help now, this will be a six week campaign.
Glen sez:
Well Kackie Jelly is gone and so is her little mate in Lindsay. How’s that for starters.
And for some reason despite a putative 11% margin in Greenway, Markus is still in the plum seat in parly just like she was before the redistribution, so someone thinks she’s in trouble.
But maybe she’s stuck like Pooh was.
It is not just the ABC Howard Hater, your delusion has now extended to include the Sydney Morning Pravda.
Dental policy failure shows Opposition is still teething
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/dental-policy-failure-shows-opposition-is-still-teething/2007/09/25/1190486312426.html
And the letters to the editor they let through, well they are definite evidence of a media conspiracy to re-elect Howard:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/letters/the-liquor-industry-is-truly-ugly-and-politicians-are-its-puppets/2007/09/24/1190486221305.html
It’s a scary thought that in the 21st century, an avowed socialist such as Julia Gillard can become Labor’s deputy leader, as exposed by Paul Sheehan. John Howard and Peter Costello have delivered economic prosperity based on free-market principles and capitalism - a proven and highly successful formula that Labor rejects. The fact that a radical leftist like Gillard can rise to such heights within her party while remaining committed to the intellectually and morally bankrupt failed ideology of socialism demonstrates once again that Labor is not fit to govern.
Nigel Freitas Roseville
kina@329: I don’t think it’s fair to compare Howard to Hawke. I don’t like Howard, but he’s nowhere near the lunacy of the hard-right of the NSW.
345 Nafe Says: September 26th, 2007 at 11:28 pm
It’s a scary thought that in the 21st century, a leader of Australia can be re-elected on the back of demonizing helpless refugees as terrorists, pandering to the xenophobic tendencies of the ignorant.
But that’s the kind of world we live in, isn’t it?
Me… I’d prefer to be called a socialist by an ignorant xenophobic red-neck, than take pride in the fact that I was, in fact, an ignorant xenophobic red-neck.
Here’s a non-randomised poll for The Oz and other tories to suck on.
GetUp! is close to their original $100k target for the Climate Change ad.
As for Gerard Daffy (what a name for a bookie’s tout) - think of him in same way that you think of a spokesperson for the real estate institute discussing mortgage costs (or anything really).
Wow… at about 4.00 they were at $26k
I’m curious about Matthew Denholm classing Lyons as a “safe” seat without comment in his analysis of Rudd’s hospital porkbarrelling in today’s Australian. Psephelogically (assuming the more or less inevitable swing back to Labor in Tassie) it may well be, but not notionally - Denholm should have explained his reasoning there.
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