Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to have been enough to have caused their server to crash. More details as they come to hand.
UPDATE: Crikey email reports a two-party split of 60.5-39.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 39.5 per cent to 36 per cent (for those interested, the Nationals vote is down from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor’s primary vote in the previous survey was 49.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face survey with a sample of 972.
904 Comments
Wow!!! Made my day but bet it won’t be reported. Incredible!!
Is this for real?
What makes the server crap itself is people like you who sit there refreshing the link every 2 seconds.
And, it must be said, people like me.
… so was that leadership issue *really* settled the Tuesday before last, folks?
it is a mistake, morgan has labor 54 on 2pp, which is a coalition win when bias is factored. Dream on hippies/stalinists!
maybe morgan is just playing with us
hehehehehehe
Good result. Will be compounded if article in SMH re inflation tipped to top 3.1% is correct. This will definitely put a lot of pressure on Reserve bank to raise interest rates again in November. Kirribilli Coconut may have lost his big gamble in delaying the election.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/rates-pressure-rises/2007/09/28/11904
William did you block my earlier post about Liberal candidates because Mark Maj*wski’s name has the J-word embedded in it, or some other reason?
Holy moley!
Hey, I guess this another one of those many “rogue” polls that stubbornly refuse to show a swing back to the Government – January poll anyone?
Still time to make predictions on the TPP – I reckon 61-39.
One word sums up this result well actually five…
Weak…seriously weak you guys….
I am betting the Nat vote is 1% or lower as i made that prediction a week ago…i wonder how low the primaries are for the Libs what about 33% or something along those lines…
I wouldnt be taking too much out of this poll because we dont know sample size but also if the Coalition had 54% id be calling it bull butter but hey it keeps with the trend i guess that Labor are clearly ahead and the Libs are clearly the underdogs.
Nostro is BACK!
The Canberra Press Gallery won’t leave this Morgan alone as they usually do. It will be swamped by the GF’s this weekend – but will be prominent enough and linked into the Howard Bennelong story already running in the MSM.
Lord D in previous thread, the reason Glen still hangs out here, is that his understanding of what is going on is far removed from the harsh political reality out there.
And just as one-eyed as ever.
As I said on the other thread, you show courage, Glen, by showing up for disastrous polls.
Glen #11,
why didn’t you just copy and paste my comment at #9 – would have saved you typing?
Glen: ‘I wouldnt be taking too much out of this poll’. hahahahaha. I bet you aren’t
Glen we all know Morgan polls are not exactly kosher (can I use that word?), but if you trot out this stupid argument about under-counting the Nationals again, you will merely invite more ridicule.
There isn’t much for him to take is there?
:):)
it is a misprint only you leftards would be fooled by – howard will win
Oh I wish it were true, how do you write up a 54% PRIMARY vote for labor as a definite coalition win …. surely you can’t.
Adam, you are correct about the nature of my moderation block, which I have now loosened a little.
Nostro – what about the part that says “Highest under Rudd”?
William put his finger on it, IMO. People are feeling tormented by the torrent of government advertising. While meanwhile Ratty refuses to call the election to put a stop to the torture and the waste of public money.
If there is any justice the electorate will emphatically punish the Coalition for this, come election day.
OK thanks William – here it is again, although with everone in a Morganatic frenzy, I doubt anyone will care.
No sooner do I make a sarcastic comment about the NSW Liberals’ missing candidates, than they are announced – most of them anyway.
* John La Mela, Barton
* Mark Majewski, Blaxland
* Lindsay Paterson, Charlton
* Colin Fowler, Cunningham
* Daniel Caffery, Grayndler
* Krysia Walker, Newcastle
* Lily Arthur, Prospect
* Ronney Oueik, Reid
* Philip Mansour, Watson
* Rose Torossian, Fowler (not at the NSW Libs website yet, but I know she is running)
Still missing: Banks, Shortland, Sydney and Werriwa, plus Batman and Scullin in Vic.
If anyone knows any occupational details about these candidates, please let me know. As in the state election, the Lebanese community is obviously the source of last resort for candidates in unwinnable seats (Oueik, Mansour and Torossian).
Sounds good to me, the last one was 49.5/56.5 and that was a difference of 7.
Gary, no doubt the dreaded “Labor soft vote”
therese rein rudd’s hypocrisy in england is labor’s final nail of their electoral coffin and hehehehe har har!!!!!
labor are 54 2pp this poll not primary
Some seem to have descended from the chimpanzee much later than others.
The last morgan phone was 60/40 with ALP primary @ 51%
Morgan is an extremely volatile series and the phone polls tend to be inconsistent with other published polls.
54% Labor primary will be around 62% 2PP
Nostra in full swing and denial, good to see.
What was the name of that nasty little kid who got de-selected for the Libs in Maribyrnong? Anyone?
Where does it say that?
Great to see you back Nostra, you really brighten up my day.
Hamish Jones
After all those centuries in a coffin, it’s hardly surprising that he’s a little unhinged.
Thanks Adam, knew you’d be first in.
Just wondering if Hamish goes by any nicknames……..perhaps Glen or Nortrodamus?
“Morgan is an extremely volatile series and the phone polls tend to be inconsistent with other published polls.”
Well yes, but it’s so much fun.
hamish jones he was a brilliant officer at melb uni student union a few years back.
ShowsOn @ 37
Nowhere. It’s wishful thinking.
hehehe – I rest my case.
Let it End @ 32, …and some just haven’t been game to take the leap…
I do recall making and seeing made predictions that the longer Howard left the election the more people will be convinced to jump ship.
Nice to have a positive rogue for a change and to dream that it is reality.
Dead right Kina. The longer he leaves it, the worse it will get.
under the golden two term stewardship of scott crawford one of the few half decent guys in labor
They also disendorsed Cam Nation in Gorton after he posted videos of himself roaring drunk on his own website – no doubt he was a whiz in the Young Libs as well.
who wrote the latest bio of howard?
Yes your right, they are classified as conservative.
*faints and picks herself up off the floor* ‘few decent guys in labor …
this Nostradamus is an imposter …
Can’t say I’m terribly surprised. Despite all the media attention to Mr Rudd’s so called tax “gaffe,†I suspect much of the general population would have been somewhat off-sided by Peter Costello’s embarrassing carry on over this trivial (non) incident.
In addition, I’m sure I’m not the only person to have cringed at those awful Climate Clever advertisements.
Does anyone think that Howard not calling the election is rapidly working against him?
This weekend he has a reasonable excuse – he would look scared if he called the election on grand final weekend. But as of next weekend he must call the election, he just doesn’t have any excuses left, and is just starting to look like he is worried about losing.
Maybe that is going to play into some of the polls over the next couple of weeks? Also, attacking Rudd in parliament looks like it has completely backfired if this Morgan Poll shows a big improvement in the Labor vote.
Most probably a rogue, but at least it means that the government is still left waiting for the Brian Burke bounce, their budget bounce, and their APEC bounce.
I bet the likes of Shanahan will be grateful that this is a Morgan poll and not next Tuesday’s Newspoll. Even Shanahan would find it hard to spin a 54% primary for Labor as great news for the coalition re-election hopes. I hope Newspoll shows a rise for Labor next week…
If the Labor primary has been recorded @ 56% – and it’s not a typo – then the 2PP should be around 63:37. This is consistent with the continued attrition of the Liberal vote: something that has been apparent for a long time now.
More than anything, I reckon such a result suggests people are really fed up with waiting for the election. They want to vote. They are holding lil john responsible for the permanent electioneering mode and for trying to manipuate the electoral cycle and public opinion. The faux campaign is disruptive and distracting and people have been hoping it would be over by now.
As well, Rudd continues to out-campaign Howard, even when taking account of the occasional inconsequential glitch. If the campaign goes on long enough, I’m hoping for a coalition primary number beginning with a 2…
Wayne Errington and Peter van Onselen. Why do you ask, Two Dogs?
adam do u think election in the uk this year? How much chance of tory win?
Spin this Nostro.
When do we get Morgan’s 2pp?
Adam at 49 – he filled all the criteria in that vid to be a good tiny tory
Drunk, obnoxious, inappropriate with a touch of the famewhore about it.
The only thing missing is some old fashioned branch stacking.
“ALP Primary Vote (54%) At Highest Level Under Rudd
Finding No. 4217 – September 28, 2007 “
hmmm, yes let us all focus on the possibility of a UK poll this year. After all, it’s far more relevant than the title of this thread isn’t it?
Howards problem has been the same for months.
On any given day the best time to have called an election was the previous week – so he tries just one more advertising program, one more porkbarrel announcement, one more line of attack to try and get back a bit of momentum so he can call the election.When that fails, the position repeats – the election should have been called last week, but just one more advertising program, one more porkbarrel…….
Well in another thread Glen predicted an ALP 2PP of 54… so maybe his prophetic dream was almost correct!
Needless to say, I don’t think any of us expect a primary of 54% is anywhere near what could be expected on election day. Still, I bet the other side wouldn’t be whinging if they had polls like this.
Anything in the crikey email?
you humbugs
ShowsOn, I do believe that the longer that Howard delays the election, the more it will work against him. Of course, rusted-on Liberal supporters like Glen, the Exclusive Brethren, and so on, would be happy for Howard to wait until he gets a solid poll bounce. But the rest of the population are probably already getting sick of hearing about the upcoming election, maybe even more so for the swinging voters or those who don’t like to hear too much politics.
And it is obvious to anyone that Howard is hanging on purely for political reasons. It has nothing to do with the national interest or good government. I am increasingly hearing people refer to Howard being selfish with respect to calling the election, although I do occasionally come across people who already think that Howard has called the election. They won’t be too pleased when he finally does call it, because then there will still be five weeks of further campaigning to go, or more.
This year Howard just doesn’t seem like the great political strategist that the media have portrayed him to be. He seems incompetent on both fronts, policy and politics.
60.5/39.5 in crikey email
60.5 to 39.5 2PP
What type of poll is it? F2F or phone?
Two questions:
1. Are there any media links yet to this result?
2. Is it too late for Howard to use the budget surplus for a ‘welfare for votes’ type of arrangement?
F2F, 972 voters
Possum: you should be in politics. A perfect summary of Howards problem. The Gallery just don’t get it – they report the minuate of daily politics and think it matters. In this climate, it does not. Your site and your anaylsis tells us all that it is well and truly over.
So even with Morgan’s ALP bias of say 2-3 points, it’s still above the average. Still, I want it about 55-56 as Rudd can still claim its going to be a tough battle.
The Morgan server is back up now. No sign of the latest poll result, far as I can see.
Possum’s assesment at #63 is, to my mind, spot on. I think he has one last chance (in his mind at least) and that is the October sitting session. I’ve said this many time over the last 6-8 weeks that Howard may try to use those final weeks to his advantage. He could take one or both weeks and still have time to go to a 1 December poll. Don’t be surprised.
He would need legislation, which would mean parliament sitting again next month.
Today Howard goes on radio and says “I haven’t made up my mind when the election will be”. (He also had no idea about what he would do if he lost the election) To me this position is just looking increasingly arrogant, when everyone sees all those adverts on TV every night, and everyone sees Howard and Rudd already campaigning.
Now this Morgan could be a rogue, or an outlier etc. HOWEVER, Morgan has been astonishingly good this year at picking up new movements. That is Morgan shows a 2 or 3% movement on the 2pp, and then sure enough the next Nielsen, Newspoll or Galaxy shows movement in the same direction, if not of the same magnitude.
If Newspoll next week moves back out to say 58 / 42. Then that would be an absolute disaster for Howard, and will make him wait even longer, which will just make him look more and more desparate that he is about to lose.
Thanks alpal at 73.
Since you’re here, and you know things (insert mysterious music)
Have you heard anything at all about rural Victoria in terms of the vote for anyone?
Over the last 3 months (according to the Newspoll quarterlies), Victoria has picked more weight in terms of safe seat swing against the government.But a fair bit of weight, now that means either toffy city seats are swinging or that regional and rural safe seats are swinging.Now there’s a lot more regional and rural seats that could carry that weight, so have you or anyone else heard anything?
My numbers just arent adding up.
If Gordon Brown wins in the UK the Costelloites here will think about what might have been.
*sings and dances like a drunk liberal party candidate on YouTube only fuelled by happiness*
the margin of error is 3.1% for anyone interested.
for those with a good memory the only time in the 96 campaign there was anything like a largish swing was at the end of the week when Howard was woeful. full of verbal and physical falls.
The public reacted by voting more strongly for Howard because they thought the opposite.
Watch out for this happening this time round as well
I am sure it is the result of the ridiculous amount of government advertising. People are sitting in front of the TV every night and watching their hard earnt money going down the drain for the sake of propping up a government that has been out of touch for far too long. The more they advertise the more the penny drops.
ShowsOn at 77 – You’ve got that right.Morgan is usually the first impressions pollster of choice – especially their face to face.
I thought it had been established that Costello has no -ites.
Anyone else notice Oz Politics’ Morgan trend from last week? The averaged trend for the Coalitions primary was point downwards, even though the poll had them increased primary vote. This weeks might be an overshoot, but goes in the direction of the trend.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/2007/09/21/morgan-565-to-435-in-labors-favour/
hamish jones he was a brilliant officer at melb uni student union a few years back.
No he wasnt. In fact he was far from brilliant and was part of the group of Liberal students and Labor Righters who white-anted the Union to the point of collapse (which it eventually did. It was only matter of time before his antics caught up with him.
Cam Nation has a sister called One – Howard appeared with her on Dancing With the Stars. And I used to go out with his brother Queer.
That’s all for now.
Watch out – Adams on a liquid lunch!
Possum: I heard some interesting stuff last night about the Liberal’s private polling. I won’t give detail on this site. Their polling does not match the published polls. They are not as pessimistic as I thought they would be. I know, however – as previously posted – that Latrobe is sitting on 56/57 for the ALP. It’s rock solid. Don’t rule out a return to Parliamentary sittings on 15 Oct.
I don’t know what I’m happier about? Today’s poll, or the return of Nostrodamus? LOL
Is Nostrodamus for real? I think he’s really an ALP shit stirrer.
OK, back to the Morgan Poll: probably an outlier, but definitely no sign of some huge swing back to the Liberals, despite the best efforts of the GG, the ABC and Glen.
Possum surely you of all of us wont let alpal get way with rubbish like that – get the the details out of alpal – do IT.
Possum, it’s now the Vanishing.
Off topic, but someone asked:
The most recent UK voting intention poll was on the 13th – 16th Sept. Conducted by ICM Research for The Guardian:
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/2007_sept_guardian_sept.pdf
(And the published results and breakdowns are awesome)
Well Parliament is virtually assured to come back in October if Newspoll confirms the rot has got even worse for the Coalition…still out of all the polls Morgan is the least accurate…and my prediction still stands that the Nats primary will be 1% or less than 1% lol.
Have the folks at Morgan gone for a lunchtime nap or what?
I won’t believe that poll until i get the details and the buggers haven’t changed the site all day – very annoying.
You know, perhaps I should get the IT consultancy company I work for to go to Morgan and help them with their website and make sure it doesn’t crash when the release a poll.
Hells bells, if this is correct, Rattus is in serious ordure. Surely Morgan has no reason to deliberately get it wrong. What would be the point?
Glen, you have to admit the Morgan poll was pretty accurate on the primaries at the last election don’t you? The Nats primary is completely irrelevant but I don’t suppose you’ll ever admit that.
Needless to say, comparisons of polling with previous years are completely irrelevant until very close to the election.
I suspect the Liberal Party’s internal polling is probably closer to reality than the public polls.
Will, please do. I have the feeling that their IT is run by a narcoleptic mouse.
So Dam is just a distant cousin?
Galaxy and Newspoll have a better track record CTEP…and despite arguing which poll is more credible it doesnt really matter not if you are more than 20 points down…
I agree Morgan is the least reliable of the major polls but there could be several reasons for this poll besides advertising. I will suggest another.
If that other political barometer – speaking to taxi drivers – is anything to go by, I think the latest pork barrell (drought aid) is one particularly likely to worsen the Liberal’s situation. It has gone down like a lead balloon, with much sarcastic comment on “whinging farmers”.
While nobody disputes drought is real, we are now seeing billions spent each year propping up farming in some areas that have no long term future. Why? The whole agricultural sector is only 3% of GDP. We export 80% of our agricultural produce, but the flip side of that is that we need only grow 1/5 of current agriculture to feed ourselves. Yes many farms are struggling, and will go under without a bailout. Yet businesses in our cities go broke all the time (eg auto part manufacturers) and often their employees do not even receive their earnt legal entitlements. Ever heard of someone demanding to “leave the factory line with dignity”?
Hey people – check out this article over at the ABC election website. Mumble gets a nod, but the whole thing is an interesting read.
Glen I’d be happy to see evidence from you as to Galaxy and Newspoll having a better track record as far as primary votes are concerned. If you can show an election-to-election polling company that has consistently got very close to the actual result I’ll be happy to see it.
How new is Galaxy anyhow?
Re Alpal @ 88
“… the Liberal’s private polling… Their polling does not match the published polls. They are not as pessimistic as I thought they would be”
How can their polls be substantively different from the others. Is their polling methodology different?
Galaxy i believe was closest to the 2004 result…but i wouldnt be asking me for lots of examples i dont have the figures on my Brian or William im sure would.
Now, why didn’t the hyperlink work? Here’s the url…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/27/2045115.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Can anyone enlighten me why
Seems to me that there is another election calculator other than Anthony Green’s? His only allows swings of 10%. I am not on my usual pc and thus haven’t got all of my favorites at my fingertips in an election file. Someone please help and post the link for another that allows swings more than this? Thanks
:)
Anthony, do you think you ought to adjust your calculator given the polling trends? ;-D
Well labor got 47% last election 2PP so the basis of this poll if uniform 2PP 60% would give a 13% swing ouch! God even Julie Bishop would lose! The rock of Curtin would be lost! Noooooooooooooooooooooo!
Further primary vote details added to my post.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.2
Why would anyone place more credence on Liberal Party polling than the well known public polls or Labor polling?
Nice to see that you have finally removed your rose coloured glasses, albeit temporarily ;-D
Hey, did I come closest yesterday with the 59-41 punt? Or was there a bolder call?
I had a feeling punters were well sick and tired of Team Rodent’s born-to-rule arrogant rantings this week.
Read and weep Rodent.
They must have interviewed all the respondents in a shopping center situated in a safe labor electorate what tosh.
#113 “..would anyone place more credence on Liberal Party polling than the well known public polls or Labor polling?”
Hyacinth.
Actually i need to compose myself Curtin would still be held but by just 1.4%! And there would be only 5 National Party MPs left!
You can certainly argue over the figures but you can’t deny that the Libs are in dire straits.
thanks james, how did you get it to go more than 10%? then i can know how to do it myself next time
Glen, people have been predicting the fall of the Nationals for a long time. It’s only a matter of time. When you can’t distinguish between the Liberal Party and the National Party they’ve got a big problem on their hands.
I suspect time in opposition would probably help the Nationals to relaunch themselves as a proper country party.
Things cant get much worse Gary so i suppose they can only get better from here!
And this is the result if, please, please God, Labor were to achieve 61.6 2pp
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=14.2
Probably in my dreams, but Downer and Ruddock gone…
I meant 61.5pp …
Can any of the pseph’s out there enlighten me on how thw MOE should be used?
Is it as a percentage of each primary percentage, in which case 5% (say) of 54% would be only 2.7% and for some of the minor parties 5% of say 6% would be ).3%??. Should the 2.7% be used as a +/-,on the 54%, or what? I’m confused.
Sopt on with your analysis Possum.
Every bad poll pushes the date out as Howard stalls for the slightest glimmer of hope. Next weeks newspoll could be the final circuit breaker.
God i wonder what the Green Primary Vote is lol 2%!
Hey, but maybe the Australian people will be “good enough and kind enough to”………..enjoy up to another TWO MONTHS OF GOVERNMENT ADVERTISING?!?!
Just wondering if this is the Daniel Caffery running for the Libs in Grayndler…
“Senator Bill Heffernan’s second cousin Daniel Caffery, 32, who was outside Hungry Jacks near the corner of Liverpool St on March 13, was the latest victim.
The federal politician was scathing of the State Government after Mr Caffery was bashed, leaving him with a shattered skull and brain damage.”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,21485736-5001021,00.html
Glen, the Greens vote is 5.5 per cent. Greens, Family First and One Nation are all down 0.5 per cent.
If this 2pp is replicated at the election [60.5 or more perhaps?
], you might be able to hold up this election in 2007 as our Aussie version of the Canadian 1993 election 
. I don’t think anyone in their right mind, even rusted on labor voters like myself think that the Canadian results would be repeated here, but by our standards, having only 20 seats left or less would be darn close to it 
:):):)
Glen,
You know how you just said at 122 that things can’t get much worse. Well, they just did!
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/rates-pressure-rises/2007/09/28/1190486529089.html
130# ouch! i guess they’ve taken more away from the Coalition’s primary than from the Greens or minor parties i wonder if Rudd’s uber lead in primaries is because undecideds have decided?
re: Lib candidates – Adam @ # 27
Mark Maj**ski (Blaxland) was candidate in Blaxland in 2004 and Bankstown in 2007 state election. He is a member of the Polish community. Here is his state election story from the state election
http://www.torchpublishing.com.au/news_detail.php?ID=39592
Philip Mansour (Watson) was candidate in Canterbury at the 2007 state election. He is from the Egyptian community. Here is a newspaper article from state election time. http://www.villagevoice.com.au/article/20070225/NWS10/702250389/Keeping+it+in+the+family
Perhaps a rate rise woulnt be so bad politically i mean we’re already according to this poll 20 points behind maybe a rate rise would bring the economy back onto the front pages and then we could demolish that Rooster Swan…
Greensborough Growler… why would an article saying rates won’t rise until mid-2008 be cause for concern to Glen?
It just keeps getting better
Rudd slams ’secret’ nuclear plan
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Rudd-slams-secret-nuclear-plan/2007/09/28/1190486541208.html
Alpal @ 91
La Trobe “rock solid”? Whataya mean by that? I used to live in La Trobe and keep an eye out for old time’s sake. That it went lib was always a nonsense.
Nostrils @68
Humbugs? Was that your final dummy spit?
So, I noticed that the Oz has finally updated comments on Shanahan’s latest joke – only took them SIX hours today. Since many on here have an opinion about the Oz and it’s soldiers, I thought I’d take the liberty of reposting my Shanahan comments here. I was responding to the torrent of criticsm that Dennis has once again received………..
“People please, you should all stop telling little Denny how much of an embarrasment he is to the once-proud profession of journalism. You need to understand the psychology at play here. Someone like Dennis has been cheerleading conservatives for so long and rationalising his appalling bias for so long now that he has built a very firm defensive wall in his own mind. If you keep bashing away at that wall by pointing out how shameless his bias is, you will get one of two results. The first would be no change, nor recognition, and an obvious unwillingness to engage in debate for fear of acknowledging that there is substance to such a charge. The other possible outcome is that Dennis’ defensive wall comes crashing down around him – all that would achieve would be the quiet mental self-destruction of a man consumed by an insulated self-delusion. Ultimately, that would do nothing for the state of Australian journalism at all – at the end of the day, this is about ego. The irony is that people like Dennis built their egos through the awe and respect that some (less critical) Australians provided him (and the profeesion) with during his early “career” – a time when journalists were generally worthy of some respect due to the important role they played in our democracy. The irony is that it is that ego that allows Dennis to rationalise his deliberate decision to ignore the howls of SHAME that greet most of his articles. Perhaps the most embarrasingh aspect opf this problem is the fact that Dennis seems quite determined to continue with his shameless Government cheerleading, yet feels he needs to hide behind news limited editors as they defend him in a series of nasty, nameless editorials. A very sad state of affairs that i pray time will solve for us.”
Draw your own conclusions of how the mortgage belt will react to even the talk of rising interest rates.
Here’s a sobering thought for all those Liberal supporters trying to consol themselves over the Morgan Poll. Even if it is overstating Labour’s primary vote by 10%, the ALP probably still wins.
Ha more scare mongering by Labor…negative negative negative….IR, Nuclear, Iraq that’s all they’ll bang on about!
#121: The number at the end of the link is the swing. All you need to do is change it.
Been there @126, it should be used +/- generating a confidence interval thus:
[57.4-63.6] (Labor) vs [36.4-42.6] (Coalition).
Statistically, 95% of all such polls should be within the MoE. It’s impossible to know the ‘true’ poll result, but we can be 95% confident that it falls somewhere within the +/- range either side of the sample result (ie 60.5).
Hopefully I haven’t confused you further
Glen,
And if these polls play out as expected we will be able to rant on about an untried and untested Liberal leadership team.
No, it will just remind voters that Howard and Costello are liars, because they made promises they couldn’t keep, and took credit for things they had nothing to do with.
Not necessarily GG after all alot of the Leadership in the event we lose will have had many years experience as Ministers…i wouldnt call that untried and untested GG…clutch at straws if you like but your team is more inexperienced than mine…though you are ahead atm so consider yourself lucky.
Glen, and the Liberal Party don’t bang on about union bosses?
And why not, it is obviously a winning tactic that the Kirribilli Coconut would die for
Ahh, Howard is getting desperate.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22496929-5005361,00.html
Oh and he’s saying States are poor at Running Hosptals as well
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22496914-5005361,00.html
Umm, who is responsible for funding Doctors and Medicare ??
Ha sample size of less than 1000 i feel better now.
But Union bosses are in the ALP caucus CTEP…we have no plans for Nuclear power as of this moment in time….
Ta alpal
Victoria isnt behaving properly.All of the stuff from the ALP that I’ve heard is consistent with the public polling, but only some of the Coalition stuff I’ve heard is.Now either the swing is extremely uniform in Victoria (which would make the numbers balance out and make the ALP polling mostly wrong by a bit on the upside), or the swing is extremely non-uniform meaning that some of the ALP stuff could be off with most of it being right, and some of the Coalition stuff could be off with most of it being right, leaving us all having to go and play “chase the bizarro swinging seats in Mexico” game for the next month or two.
You Victorians need to get your act together and behave yourselves.You’re making my abacus explode.
I have a tip for all those on here who dont like Shanahans so called “rants”. Simply dont read them……
If you think the Oz is the so called Gov Gazette again simply dont read it……
The latest polling summaries are here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=727
Thommo,
thanks mate – I honestly NEVER thought of that – brilliant.
It should of course be noted that this morgan polled the exact same days as the 56-44 Galaxy.
Thommo if you don’t like reading comments re Shanahan just don’t read them.
Re Glen:
Well I’ll leave it to the Australian people to decide whether they’re scared of union bosses. I most certainly am not.
The thing with IR, nuclear power and Iraq is that the Australian people don’t know what the Liberal Party plan to do with any of those things. I, for one, don’t trust this government to handle any of them properly.
One things for sure though, nuclear power won’t be invested in until it has bipartisan support.
Anyhow, nothing much more to add about this poll result. It’s just more of the same.
Cant help it Gary im addicted to bile I get a pretty good fix off this blog of late…
Econocrat 145
Thanks, no longer confused
Forget these polls – just watch where the betting market money is going on a seat by seat basis.
The end result for Labor – another loss. The Government will come back during the election campaign and all the fifth rate socialist whingers on this site will have to endure another three years of steady but successful conservative rule.
You know it’s true.
Zing!
It’s not online, but according to the dead tree version of The West, Noel Brunning, the Celebrity Independent candidate for Forresst is believed to be polling well and may win.
JWH has a shocker of a week when his leadership almost went into meltdown and Newspoll reported a 4% TPP improvement for the government.
Rudd makes a mistake on tax rates and the ALP’s vote goes through the roof according to Morgan.
Go figure!
Honestly the polls aren’t changing. The primary vote of both sides is rock solid. Why not announce the election and all of us put out of our misery?
The PM is now looking as if he is clinging to the only power he has left, the deciding of the election date. I’m really starting to believe that parliament might be recalled, as ludicrous as it sounds.
I’d say this poll is an outlier. The ALP 2pp is unlikely to be as high as reported, and I’d say the minor party primaries are lower than I would expect and inconsistent with other polls. Couple this with a smallish sample size, and I would say that you can’t take this poll on face value.
That said, this must seriously bring into question any talk of a Liberal poll bounce. Those who saw the last few polls with slightly reduced ALP support and made the claim the Libs were back in the hunt may have been premature. The poll is certainly consistent with the general trend of reduced support for the Libs.
#162 – Where have you been Nostradamus?
Isabella,
When you look at the seat by seat betting on Portlandbet, you´ll see that Labor is up in 78 seats – a clear (if narrow) majority in the HofR.
I´m pretty sure the other betting markets are about the same.
“Forget these polls – just watch where the betting market money is going on a seat by seat basis.
The end result for Labor – another loss. The Government will come back during the election campaign and all the fifth rate socialist whingers on this site will have to endure another three years of steady but successful conservative rule.
You know it’s true.”
At last!! A sensible comment. Thankyou Isabella
But Thommo it’s not that sensible when the betting markets are showing the ALP in front in a majority of seats… how is that sensible?
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/avgProb.pdf
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/voteprob.pdf
I presume Howard can only hold out till Dec. 10, any later and the G-G would have issue the writs (and presumably sack the Govt. on the way!).
Forget the betting market,
just cut open a small pig in the middle of your kitchen table and you’ll find that any serious reading of the entrails points to a coalition landslide. So suck on that you Stalniist scum (insert crazy, diabolical laughter here)!!!!!
“Just watch where the betting market money is going on a seat by seat basis. The end result for Labor – another loss.”
“At last!! A sensible comment. Thankyou Isabella”
Actually seat-by-seat betting shows Labor in front.
William, Brian, Possum and other such deep thinkers, if we have a Labor primary average of 54%, surely this means that a much larger number of seats than is ‘usual’ will be won outright, and not go to preferences. In such a case do we have to review our ideas on the preference flows in the remainder, and might the make-up of the minor parties vote in such seats be significantly different to the ‘average’?
cheers,
Alan H
__________________
All generalisations are false
Honestly, they really have been insufferable this week! Abbott’s perverted, obscene opportunism on the miscarriage; Dolly’s descent into irremediable ludicrousness on every topic his minders are stupid enough to let that moron discuss; Rodent’s non-stop hammering of a disengaged electorate with their funds.
Worst campaign Ive ever seen from the Libs.
And I remember 87.
My confident assessment: these scumbags are going to get absolutely hammered.
apologies if this gets posted twice, my net connection went down this afternoon and I don’t know if this post made it into the queue before the net went down.
I can’t get enough of a good thing, I know that ACN is out on Monday. But what is on deck after that? (next few polls; names and dates)
thanks very much folks
:)
Another thing, if the Liberal Party polling is so great… why hasn’t the election been called already?
Anyone?
To Optimist (#101).
There’s nothing wrong with our infrastructure. We have a satisfaction survey sampling visitors to our website which shows that 100% or respondents were able to connect.
100 percent!
Is ACN this Monday or next?
ACN is not out on Monday.
The next poll is Newspoll and then the week after ACN and then Newspoll and then Galaxy unless an election is called and then we get weekly polls!
Oh well, if Isabella says it, it must be true. With such accurate information and unbiased comment who could doubt her.
Narco,
very nice – that’ll keep me grinning for a while.
Obviously mere mortals can’t remove the Morgan bias from a value of 60.5% TPP. So would Nostradamus mind telling us how many government seats are lost when the bias is removed?
I see the Lib party hacks are out to ‘bury’ the result. They even tell us go look at the betting market, which has Labor 66% chance to win, and as Swing Lowe pointed out Labor has 78 seats through the betting market and we’ve already discussed how the betting markets try to favour incumbents in a seat by seat.
178 CEP – Ah, ah, because it actually shows them losing?
GetUp! just ticked over $200,000.
It would seem the soft voters have been taking blue pills.
Excellent!
https://www.getup.org.au/campaign/ClimateCleverer&id=128 – that’s one political ad I won’t mind seeing on the weekend.
Morgan’s website has FINALLY got the detail up.
Nice work Narco, you’ve earned yourself a nap.
The campaign to talk up the coalition’s chances of winning is in full swing. Steve Lewis is beside himself suggesting polling is showing a swing back – slow but steady, the Libs are saying (without proof) their polling is favourable and word has it every Lib is as happy as Larry with the way things are going. As CEP says why aren’t we in the midst of an official election campaign now then? Me thinks the talk is BS.
Isabella (162) – with the polls showing a swing to Labor of 8% or more, some seats with margins of 10% plus are likely to fall. No bookmaker in his right mind could make the Labor candidate the favourite under these circumstances. You need to factor that into your theory.
If you want to draw conclusions on where the money is going, the head to head odds are the most reliable, and there Labor is a street ahead.
Suffer in your jocks Howard!!! Whatch the knives come out this week.
If we use Morgan’s preferences on how people say they will vote we get.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.7
Bye Bye Mr Downer.
That Getup ad is great. The fact that Getup got donations of $200 000 in two days to run the ad will be news itself – meaning that the ad will probably get run on some the the news and current affairs shows as well as write ups in the paper and links to the ad from the newpaper web sites.
Zzzzzzzzzmmmmmmmm…
Wha?
Oh… nice.
Albert Ross @ 188, do you mind if I plagiarise that at some point?
Oh Notsra!! NOSTRA!! Where has he gone?
@ 188 Albert Ross Says:
Noooo!
Take the red pill, let’s see how deep this rabbit hole goes!
Kevin 08?
And Bye Bye Judi Moylan too
(My local MP in Pearce WA)
1)
Chaz, perfectly delighted if you do old boy.
2) Somebody made a point about born-to-rulers somewhere here. I couldn’t agree more. The Libs this week have looked and sounded just like the old NRMA board when they were threatened. It’s not a good look.
Alan H at 176
That is an intriguing hypothetical.
For arguments sake, if you had an ALP primary of 54% (apart from the fact that the landslide would be so large, the ALP left may as well split from the right and become the official opposition – it would be better than Bob Katter fulfilling the role), we could assume that all the marginals would be gone (brave assumption, I know!).
When it comes to the governments safe seats, one would think that with an ALP primary vote so high,the preference flows of the reduced minor party vote would start to interact with demographics (for instance the cliche of the doctors wife voting Green and preferencing Lib).I too wonder if under such a scenario the preference flows would be extremely erratic seat by seat (you’d think they certainly would be booth by booth).
I would think that the preference distributions would become smaller, but I’m surprised that the preference flow to the ALP hasn’t already reduced, with it’s high primary being ten points above its 04 election level.Even with this high vote, the current preference flow levels to the ALP are higher than 2004 according to Morgan and ACN.Todays Morgan for instance gives the poll as 61/39 on the basis of nominated preferences.
So a swing of this magnitude would create greater havoc than the pendulum indicates since Possums has already revealed that swings are highest in Liberal safe seats? How would this level of vote affect Senate outcomes?
Even as an outlier this poll has to indicate that there is no question of there being a recovery by the LNP.
The honeymoon continues, maybe for another 3 years.
It just keeps getting better and better. Can’t wait to see what happens when the ads start!
What youse have all missed is that a 54% primary vote for Labor, if applied evenly to all seats across the nation, would mean a 150/0 seat distribution in the House Of Representatives.
Didn’t even need Antony’s calculator for that one.
I will bet any amount of money Labor gets less than a 54% primary vote in the election.
The indication from the Labor “think will win” is that this poll could be genuine. Labor “think will win” went down a lot; this was in good accordance with the bookies.
Ha… good guess The Speaker.
Where can i place a bet!
TAB?
Totally agree with Bushfire Bill. If 54% is the primary vote, the ALP is already past the post, no need for preferences, and it’ll be 150-0!
I note the TPP figure is derived from asking the sample what their first preference would be. In this poll, it showed a 65% preference flow to Labor. This would make the strongest preference flow in the last 25 years.
In 2004, the flow was 61% – a historical high. The average has been about 57% from 1983 onwards with a minimum of 53.3% in 1998. The latter election had a high ‘others’ vote (One Nation): my guess is One Nation voters preferenced the Coalition more often than not.
I like to be cautious and assume a preference flow of 53% – 55%, which would give a TPP Labor figure of ‘only’ 59.5% on this poll. The ‘others’ primary vote is 10% – this is historically small (lowest since 1987). This could be accurate, however: a result of environmental issues being taken up by the major parties and lessening the Green vote?
While I think that *this* poll is an outlier (54% primary!), it’s worth keeping an eye on how preferences are distributed in each poll: most pollsters have a better track record of predicting the final primary vote. Allocating preferences in line with the 2004 election may well be producing a higher TPP than the TPP which would eventuate were the primary votes to be reflected on election day.
I almost feel sorry for Glen being on the same side as Nostrodamus and Isabella.
Speaker
Whack your house on McEwen. I double dares ya.
Hold off Glen, you’ll get better odds once the bickering starts again.
The only problem with polls like this (as we saw with the 60 – 40 TPP Newspoll some time back) is that the next poll can only go down for Labor. We know this is a rogue poll but the way the conservative media and the Libs are at the moment any movement to the conservatives will be seen as a comback rather than a correction.
The Speaker Says:
September 28th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
I will bet any amount of money Labor gets less than a 54% primary vote in the election.
Very true but it’s just fantastic to watch the government squirm when figures like these come out. They go into a panicked disarray. LOVELY!!!
True Pat but if my side is going to lose (now likely but still not inevitable) i want to get something out of Rudder getting in and my political party thrown out everywhere i might as well make a few bob out of it…
This won’t go down well in WA with the Royal Show starting tomorrow – no pony rides or touching horses cos of Equine Flu.
http://www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/media/media.nsf/news/C26B821EB559FC79C8257364001C6DA0?opendocument
Way to stay on topic…
But seriously folks…
Labor’s true vote is around 55-56 2PP. Whenever there’s an attack on Rudd or a bad showing from the government in the bully boy stakes Labor’s vote goes up 4%.
These are the true “soft” Labor voters. They’re actually “wet” Libs. They’re Lib-sympathetic but not necessarily Howard lovers. They’ll probably vote for the Libs, but they don’t like Howard or his bully boy tactics. If the Libs go the smear, or attack St. Kevin personally, or try the bully boy tactics, these Lib “wets” pitch in on the Labor side and ratchet up Labor’s vote… but only for a week or so until the next poll. Then they return to the comfort of the Libs’ apron strings. They’re one-week wonders. Labor would be lucky to keep 1 out of that 4 per cent on polling day.
Conversely, there’s another small clique of voters who like Howard but don’t particularly like the Libs as a party. They’re Howard’s personal followers. Once it looks like Howard is gone, they’re genuine swinging voters again, probably leaning more to Labor than the Libs. This is why it’s necessary to keep up the “Howard losing Bennelong” mantra. The more personal Howard supporters think he’ll lose his seat, the more they’re likely to switch to Labor.
My gut feeling is that in this poll some of the Howard-Hugger/Lib-Haters and the Lib-Lovers/Howard-Haters have combined to put the primary where it is. The polls will return to normal, possibly by the Newspoll on Tuesday, or at least sometime in the next week or so.
I remember having heated debates with Steven K, Glen and Nostro a few months ago (in another place) about the “inevitability” of the polls tightening in favour of the Libs. Their take was that it was only a matter of time before the electorate woke up to itself.
In a nutshell, I think this mindset beautifully captures the “boiling frog” syndrome which has beset the Libs all year. “The Rodent will come up with something, just like always!” they kept whining to each other. “It’s only a matter of time!”. “The Australian electorate will NEVER vote out a man of steel like John Howard! Never!” etc. etc.
Guess what guys? The water’s boiling.
MY basic point in #219 is that I don’t this is a rogue poll due to statistical noise. It is more because of these “soft” Labor voters acting on irritation with the government’s latest excesses. Their anger only lasts a week. We’ve seen this a few times this year already (Burkegate, Therese Rein, APEC and now the “We have no dirt unit” claptrap).
Expect to read more about “leaked” Lib and ALP polling showing different outcomes over the weekend.
John Howard will be desperate to calm his flock whilst the ALP will want to keep the pressure right on him.
Bushfire Bill Says:
September 28th, 2007 at 3:27 pm
But seriously folks…
Whenever there’s an attack on Rudd or a bad showing from the government in the bully boy stakes Labor’s vote goes up 4%.
So…… the government is signalling very strongly that they are gonna run a bully boy fear and smear campaign, so….. following your logic, Labor should hold onto those votes until the election then
Good one Pete. Deserved better than to be locked up in moderation for half-an-hour.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
I wish I could figure Morgan polls out. Even if they have a Labor bias as everyone says (which is strange because everyone also says that Morgan personally has a Liberal bias), this is still the best Morgan 2PV since April. If his bias is consistent his polls show a clear upward trend in the Labor 2PV since mid June, regardless of the actual figures. Even if this poll is 5% out it’s still a bad poll for the Libs. But what can one make of a pollster who on five successive weeks can produce Labor 2PVs of 54, 60, 59, 56, and 60? No-one believes that opinion is oscillating like that. Can anyone who has studied these things cast light on this? (No statistician-talk please.)
Bushfire Dill Says:
Bushy I took your first line as requested. But you are either trying to be funny (failed) or you are incredibly daft.
Are you really saying that Morgan’s pollsters sought out (and actually found!) the tiny number of the population that wanted to have a bit of a leg pull?
I don’t for a second believe there’ll be a 14% swing at election time. However, any really sizeable swing does make it much easier for credible independents in reasonably safe coalition seats. Seats like Berowra (for goodness sake!) are not going to go anything other than Liberal, but if they were going to go somewhere, it’d be much more likely to be to a credible independent. Anyone remember Jade Hurley?
What year was he, 1990?
Seriously though, I think a significant swing will occur (4-7%, I would think), there will probably be more than 2 independents, and this increases the possibility of a hung parliament. Obviously, the greater the swing (above say 5%), the lower the risk of a hung parliament (but the more potential independents)!
Suggestions of a repeat of Canada in 1993 is cloud cuckoo stuff – conservative Canadians at that time had credible alternatives competing for their votes, other than the governing Progressive Conservatives (”I know those words, but that sign makes no sense”) and the rise of separate populist regional parties in both the western states and Quebec destroyed the PC vote. The PC went from polling 35% at the start of the 6 week election campaign to getting 16% of the votes… It can’t happen here.
Tim @225,
Why wait for the weekend. It’s already started.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/opinion/story/0,22049,22492784-5001031,00.html
60.5-39.5, with a primary of 54.
WOW!
It’s the day for candidate announcements it seems:
http://nsw.democrats.org.au/media/070926bringbackbalance.html
Adam – the ALP TPP vote is stuck at 57 for Morgan and movement around that is just margin of error and a few newsvoters (of the type BB explained, as well as the other end that just like Julias latest haircut and change their votes accordingly) moving the vote a few points each week.
For Newspoll its about 56-57
ACN is about 56.
Galaxy I dont get.
120.”you can’t deny that the Libs are in dire straits.”
There is only one hope that they can have. Try this scenario for the Last Card.
Parliament will resume in October. There will be handouts; but Howard knows they will not do the trick. Publicly-funded advertising will reach a new peak; but Howard knows this will slow though not reverse the trend. The feared bandwagon is on the move. Nor does the Liberal Party have the money for a long campaign.
So what he intends to do is wait for the shock, or wait for 10 December, when he must call an election – whichever comes first. He couldn’t care less about demands for an election, or public anger at having one in January. If he’s going to be defeated, why should he care if the Liberals are left with a footy team?
Now to the shock. On 26 September the US Senate voted to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organisation. Former Reagan Navy Secretary and now Democrat Senator Jim Webb, who voted against the resolution, remarked, “What do we do with terrorist organisations if they are involved against us? We attack them”. This is the card Howard believes can save him – if Bush plays it in time.
The consequences of an attack on Iran could be very nasty, and very dangerous for our troops in Iraq. The following article, widely quoted recently, deserves careful reading -
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/20651
Possum has chronicled the impact of the shock in Australian elections. A nice summary of the theory is to be found in the video here –
http://www.naomiklein.org/shock-doctrine/short-film
If anyone is alert to the implications of Howard’s Last Card, it must be Rudd. Maybe it’s why he thinks those last metres to the top of Everest could be so hard.
I love polls which are outliers. You can be certain that there’s going to be some fun every time you see one.
It really is entertaining… I can’t wait to see the politicians’ reactions to this one.
The last Newspoll was a sympathy spike towards the govt; it seems people didn’t like it being done over by the press over the leadership issue. Since that weekend, we’ve had 3 polls that are dreadful news for the govt:
Galaxy, Labor 46-40 Primary; 56-44 2PP
Nielson online, Labor 50-37, 58-42
Morgan f2f, Labor 54-36, 60.5-39.5
It looks like it’s back to before the leadership business, when Labor was at around 58-42 2PP.
how can the labor vote be 60.5% 2pp, up 4.5%, but on the other hand, 6% more voters think the L-NP will win.
I’m thinking that The Oz should break with tradition and report the Morgan poll right now. That way, when next week’s newspoll comes out at say, 57-43tpp they can crow about how Howard is clawing back more support.
Interesting theory Busfire Bill (222) but how come your “Howard Huggers/Lib Haters” and “Lib Lovers/Howard Haters” didn’t show up in the Galaxy Poll taken at the same time as Morgan.
nic.
Easy peasy, they read News Ltd papers.
DiMansion, actually Parliament expires on 15 Nov. An election MUST be called no more than 10 days after Parliament expires, ie 25 Nov. Since the minimum campaign is 33 days, this will take it into late Dec, and really annoy voters.
Possum, is it a measure of the quality of a pollster’s work that their results have the least extraneous oscillation, in other words that their polls when graphed have the smoothest lines over time? In that case Galaxy and Nielsen seem to have the best record, with Newspoll some way behind and Morgan a long way behind.
And then there was just John
Wonder how Dolly is going to try and spin this backflip on climate targets by his mate Dubya.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22497759-2,00.html
Aaahhhh! Those Morgan figures are beautiful. Just Beautiful.
Gary Bruce at 192 [Libs are saying (without proof) their polling is favourable and word has it every Lib is as happy as Larry with the way things are going.]
Apparently Team Rodent are taking advice from Crosby Textor’s new, improved, secret weapon.
Comical Ali Jnr.
I think that factoring in the obvious Morgan Labor bias, the polls are really 40/60 in Lib favour. This is a great result for Libs.
Glen, is it time yet for General Waenk and some German swearing! These polls will drive anyone to drink – friend and foe!!
nic… I’d put that back to the media frenzy over the last few weeks of the Coalitions’ ‘come back’.
Albert Ross, Bushfire Bill’s interpretation of the polls is very plausible. He is not suggesting that this latest poll is able to to weed out particular types of voters, but rather, the fact that polling movements over this entire year nearly all show a Labor 2PP vote of at least 55%, which suggests a majority of people are committed to voting against the government. The rest, that is, the constant movements occurring between 55 and 60 are fickle. Bushfire Bill’s explanation for that fickleness is not definitive but it seems like a pretty good analysis to me.
Just to add to this. The recent spike in support of Labor (if it is not purely a statistical aberration), might be a result of recent attempts by the mainstream media to create false momentum for the government. They have been trying to make us all believe that Howard is coming back into the game and that the government is in with a good chance of winning the election.
So, those who dislike Howard and like the party or like Howard and dislike the party might have swung away from the government because they are being forced by the media to actually contemplate a fifth Howard government term. They might like Howard but the thought of the Liberal party back in power may be too much. Or conversely, they might like the Liberal party but the thought of another term of Howard is just too much.
This would account for the decline in the number of people expecting Labor to win (as Morgan has just reported), but at the same time, showing greater support for Labor.
And if this is right, then mainstream media attempts to create “win expectations” for the government may well be backfiring. But we’ll have an even better idea when Newspoll comes out next week…
Don’t get carried away with think coalition will win, it is only at 30.5%.
booska, even though i know that this poll wont be repeated on polling day its one more poll that the coalition dont make ground.
Whats the record for the number of times any party either in government or opposition has hit 60%+ in TPP in an election year.
Radio Ads for Footy Finals criticising Govt Ads .
http://www.kevin07.com.au/miscellaneous/miscellaneous/audio.html
Greetings from Nullo Mountain! It’s green up here and the dams are full.
Lots of kangaroos and wombats.
The latest Morgan figures seem surreal in these peaceful surroundings.
No wonder John Howard has not yet announced the election date.
Come on John, bring the damn thing on!
No more German ranting Pauline but to make you happy just this once here you go!
Kein Pauline aller ist nicht verloren, aber es schaut zweifellos so, OH- Brunnen, wenn aller Schlechtes geht, das ich im Wahldeckungklebeband 2004 gerade knallen und Stephen Smith genießen kann, der angst lol schaut…
Nic makes a good point…that is why i dont take Morgan so seriously…Newspoll and Galaxy are the best bets in my view…
Also National Party 2.5% nuff said lol!
Morgan is a bit of spoilt sport, and I was really looking forward to Murdoch headline saying “Howard checks Rudd’s march’. I don’t know what’s driving me around the bend more – Howard stringing out a 15 month election campaign and being cagey with the date or those infernal Tax payer funded Liberal Party adds!
So it’s time for a change?, but then the Liberals have got to get to the awful truth (dantean voyage) and ask why the people feel like that.
They won’t get the answers from right wing talk back radio, maybe they’ll discover that other wireless form of communication??
Raudonikis and Keenan – genius. I’d like to shake the hand of the person who put that idea together – bloody brilliant campaigning.
A bombing attack on Iran has been predicited for month by analysts based on the rehtoric from the Bush administration – they were looking to generate a plausible excuse. I believe one analyst put the reason down to Iran dropping the USD for its oil trading contracts.
In anycase this wont be like 9/11 hype where people were keen to invade Iraq. Australians will be very concerned if Howard makes any noises about over committing ourselves to some additional battles. He might think it a rabbit but it could just as easily be a rattle snake and leave him with a LNP primary of 20%
Here’s the result if Morgan is right.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=12.2&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Sounds like Tommy’s still on the Rothmans.
Adam – smoothness is good, unless of course the public is jumpy.
The weighting mechanism is the main weapon in a pollsters armory for producing a result as close to possible as the true value (that and pure sample numbers)
But regardless of the spiffiness of the weighting regime, and regardless of the size of the sample above a certain point – the problem is still always going to be fourfold:
1.Some voters actually do vote on the basis of haircuts.
2.Some voters do change their mind on which party they are going to vote for on a weekly basis
3.Some voters b*llshit to pollsters.
4.There will always be a margin of error.
That group might only be small, and the folks in that group will usually cancel each other out in their voting intention – but not always fully (hence that combined with the MoE gives the small wandering around the long run means of the polling results over the last 7 months or so).
The Monthly polls do tend to look smoother than the fortnightly and weekly polls in Australia.That is probably their weighting regime (and on that point Briggs at Galaxy apparently has a killer weighting mechanism, but few have seen it so its hard to comment, and ACN probably have more statistical talent in their organisation that any other polling group in the country).
I dont know if smooth is good in this environment.It would be good if it represented actual voter behaviour, but if there’s a small jumpy section in the electorate – a deliberate smoothing would be ignoring those people.
Adam, the true value lies somewhere between.
Morgan says their ‘margin of error’ is 3.2 so we have the following:
54 -> 51.8 to 57.2
60 -> 56.8 to 63.2
59 -> 55.8 to 62.2
56 -> 53.8 to 59.2
60 -> 56.8 to 63.2
What is needed is the overlap, easiest why to do this is look for the highest ‘low’ value and the lowest ‘high’ value. This gives us 56.8 -> 57.2 or 57 if we rounded off. Even with the supposed %2 bias to the ALP, it’s still 55% TPP for the ALP.
From the West, predicting how Election night on the ABC will pan out.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=54&ContentID=41844
Actually it’s even worse
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.2&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Kina #256
Agree. If Iran is invaded I don’t see it becoming a wedge issue unless Howard commits aussie troops. Given the unpopularity of the Iraq mess, he’d be mad to commit troops, but he might commit ground support or navy support.
I see that since March Iran has been using Euros in it’s embassies, and that it’s oil sales to China are now in Euros. I can’t see that attacking Iran will stop this, unless they go for a full-scale invasion, which would be mad…they wouldn’t would they?
You’ve got a possum in your bin William.
Glen @219
And that’s the difference between the two major parties. Libs will seek to earn a quid out of everything – even granny’s skin.
You probably don’t realise it, Glen, but that was one of your best comments. Bares your soul.
or not
Actually Antony believes he can call the election by 7 and I believe him
stolen from matt prices blog
TONY: You’re really playing the blame game something outrageous now, Julia.
JULIA: Oh look I listened to professor
TONY: … trying to blame the Federal government is just ridiculous
JULIA: I listened to …
TONY: come on, get serious Julia.
JULIA: Well, I am being serious about our hospitals
TONY: You can’t blame the Federal government for the problems at Royal North Shore Hospital.
JULIA: I’m not talking about an individual case here, Tony, I wouldn’t politicise an individual case
TONY: Oh don’t be precious
JULIA: I was asked about the hospital system
TONY: … don’t be precious Julia.
JULIA: I was asked about the hospital system …
TONY: You are being very precious now.
JULIA: There were cuts in 1996 to GP training places
TONY: There were no cuts …
JULIA: There were cuts, Tony.
TONY: There were no cuts to medical training places
JULIA: There were cuts to GP training places in 1996.
TONY: Come on, stop your verbal diarrhoea Julia, and let me have my say.
JULIA: Well, try the truth.
Remember, we’ve not yet started the formal campaign for an election which could be almost two months away. Strap yourselves in.
what a champ abott is. the pig
Well derek i like to think of it of trying to make the most out of a bad situation but you dabble in my comments as you please it is a free country but hey…
Actually i think the Libs are more about smart people making smart moves with their money to gain benefits
what’s wrong with that?
If you dont like that there are a multitude of countries were that is not allowed and you may then like them better than Australia…lol!
ruawake @241: OMG, News Ltd is actually *on the ALP’s side after all*.
No, really. Even though the polls are all the ALP’s way, News is the only media outlet really, really pushing that it’s really the Libs that are ahead. That Rudd really might be the underdog with no chance.
It becomes much clearer now…
Does anyone else think that Malcolm Turnbull may be the Member for Berowra by the end of the year? I can’t see much benefit for Ruddock in hanging around after the landslide, and I think that Turnbull will lose Wentworth. Would the NSW Libs make it a priority to get him back into Parliament?
The analyses by Bushfire Bill and Noocat make a lot of sense to me.
Frank Calabrese, if you are in the Division of Pearce, do you know anything about Chris Myson, the Labor candidate? He is one of the few who has not send his biography in to the ALP website. Tell him to get his a*** in gear.
Not if the dry’s have anything to say about it Charlie lol!
Though this would be cutting off its nose despite its face and squandering any chance of a ‘comeback’ if the Libs lose…but i dont think Wentworth will go to Labor the margin is artificial given Peter Kings candidacy in 2004…Malcolm should win Wentworth.
Noocat #248 you clarified my theory well, and answered all the questions. Thanks for that.
I believe there IS a “soft” Labor vote, but it’s only soft over 55%. The soft voters comprise:
1. Howard-Lovers/Lib-Indifferents (or haters): these don’t like Costello and the thought of him being Co-Prime Minister is too much. The “deal” a couple of weeks ago didn’t wash with them, so they drift towards Labor as a Liberal Party without Howard isn’t attractive to them.
2. Howard-Haters/Liberal-Lovers: Classically described as “Liberal Wets”. If Howard looks like he’s staying, or if a dirty-tricks campaign is put up against Rudd (youse know the examples from this year), then they drift towards Labor. A recent example was the meta-campaign regarding whether the Libs have a dirty tricks department or not. The whole phoney “debate” scenario was designed to force Rudd to put up or shut up on the dirt unit. He did, as did Gillard (when they were allowed to speak by Abbott and his constant, interrupting points of order). This debate wasn’t supposed to work out like it did, with a Labor moral victory. The stories had already been written about how Labor supposedly totally failed to prove anything about a Lib Dirt Unit. These stories went ahead anyway (read any Price, Shanahan or Akermann story from the past 10 days as proof of this… the “total failure” by Rudd to prove a Dirt Unit exists is central to just about all of them… Labor’s “Mother of all negative campaigns” tactic must be biting hard).
A similar example from recent American politics was the trap Dan Rather fell into with his memo about Bush’s ’60s ANG service which was typed in MS-Word (not available until the ’80s!). This not only made a fool of Rather but shut down the whole argument about Bush’s military service permanently. This is what the “Dirt Unit” debate was designed to do as well, in my opinion. They tried it again with the “Heart valve” story, and again with the “You-Know-Who is gay” story… only to be exposed as putting both of them out themselves. Yet still the stories were dutifully written up as attempted Labor smears and Rudd “squealing”, “no ticker” etc. etc.
I think the Lib “wets” reacted against this and parked their votes with the Coalition for a poll or two as punishment of the Libs nasty tactics. I think Howard-Haters, faced with the prospect that “Old Tickerless” Costello himself ran again true to form and failed to uproot Howard also reacted in favour of Labor. Add them together and you get… the “usual” 4% increment, which I predict should come down in a few days, back to 55%. This has already happened several times so far this year.
The salient points are that the waverers always come back, and that the “soft” vote is nowhere near as large as Sol Lebovic and Gary Morgan put about (Morgans figure for “soft Labor” is “20% of all voters”… that’s 40% of Labor voters… oh really Gary?)
Adam,
there are more than a few people in ALP who need toget their A’s into G – a few weeks back i was on the site and saw federal H of R candidates referred to as candidates for the legislative assembly.
Antony, those figures look amazing, hardly the possible outcome though.
Tony Abbott did himself and his government no favours with his bullying and hectoring of Julia. He was evidently trying to make her lose her cool.
And no, I don’t there is a chance that Malcolm Turnbull would try for Berowra if he lost Wentworth.
All we need is for you to announce that on election night Antony
Yes I know Chris (I was at a fundraiser on Monday night with him) – he is a Drug and Alcohol Nurse in the WA Prison System and lives in the Electorate.
Did anybody see that on TV this morning? How did it look? As bad as it sounds?
Andrew Lamming has been cleared of the printing rort allegations.
Further to my previous bet, I am also prepared to bet any amount of money that Labor will receive less than a 60.5% 2PP at the election.
How I think it’s looking at the moment (conservative view):
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007maps/hypothetical.shtml
Ah, so maybe the rumour I heard that the printgate MPs would get off was reliable after all.
“Further to my previous bet, I am also prepared to bet any amount of money that Labor will receive less than a 60.5% 2PP at the election.”
Daring.
Kina @ 280: Yes, Tony was rather embarrassing on television this morning. I think he’s slowly emerging from his pocket universe and is not liking what he’s seeing.
Speaker, care to wager on vote each party will receive? I’m curious.
Adam,
Found this letter of Introduction from Chris to the Save Perth Hills website.
http://www.saveperthhills.org/pdfs/Labor_Pearce_to_SPA_22-6-07.pdf
May be of assistance.
BB…I’m sorry but I don’t follow your argument about the ’soft’ vote. Nor do I see why your opinion is any more persuasive than Sol’s or Gary’s. The latest Morgan poll is indeed a ‘beautiful set of numbers’ but isn’t the best opinion poll guide going to be the polling done in the few days before the actual poll?
I think Antony is right – the labor party aint gunna get a 94 seat majority based on a 60.5:39.5 2pp. which is nearly right off the scale.
Where did morgan take his polling from?
however the online polls in the daily tele have it about 65:35 2pp on average:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22466756-5001021,00.html?id=#vote-now-form
Morgan polls are never accurate.. They tend to always favour labor.. I still think it is about 55-45 at present and when people vote it will be about 53-47 or 52-48 with Labor winning. The electorate is way to conservative and generally before elections they tend to kick governments in the polls to get governemnts to do things.
This poll although fantastic is just fairy floss.. with sugar all over it…
A-C: I think the 2PP will be something like 53:47.
Seriously, did Morgan conduct this entire poll in a safe Labor seat? To suggest that 5% of voters switched from Liberal to Labor over the course of what was at best a mediocre week for the opposition is fanciful. To suggest that this happened from a lopsided poll result the week before is ridiculous.
So have I got this completely right, Adam, without omission? You’re forecasting Labor gains in:
Solomon
Herbert
Blair
Petrie
Bonner
Bowman
Moreton
Page
Macquarie
Eden-Monaro
Dobell
Bennelong
Lindsay
La Trobe
Corangamite
Wakefield
Kingston
Makin
Stirling
Hasluck
Bass
Braddon
That’s 22 seats in your ‘conservative’ estimate. Do you want to change Bowman now that Laming has been cleared? Either way, I presume this means you’re in the ‘Liberals cannot possibly win’ group?
Also one more question – which seats fall in your ’slightly more than conservative’ count – that is, seats you think Labor will win but you have sufficient doubts on not to claim them at the moment?
This poll is all wrong, because this is what happens when people get polled while sleep walking. Tony will probably blame the states for not sorting out the ’sleep walking epidemic’ that is affecting Australia.
Has a Morgan poll ever should the Coalition ahead?
For the information of members and their guests, some polling explanations are here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=729
From the Four corners email:
I don’t think Kevin Andrews will appreciate this program
Oops – a typo in my previous post:
It should read: “Has a Morgan poll ever shown the Coalition ahead?”
Possum at 259
Great work. If I may, three questions:
1) If one is on the left, what is the required haircut style and how much does it cost,
2) What is an outlier poll and,
3) What is a rogue poll.
Have not heard these descriptions and require definitive. Go, guru …
A-C
Not since January 20/21 & 27/28, 2007
Was the polling conducted in safe Labor seats?
“Was the polling conducted in safe Labor seats?”
Yes, the entire Australian electorate is one big safe ALP seat.
The polling was taken in O’Connor and Murray.
Thanks guys, I think its more like Melbourne Ports or Maribyrnong
A-C says:
“Oops – a typo in my previous post:
It should read: “Has a Morgan poll ever shown the Coalition ahead?â€
Yes, I believe it did many times during the Keating Government. It has also shown the Coalition ahead during large periods of the Howard Government.
Needless to say your question is sort of irrelevant considering none of the other polling companies have shown the Coalition ahead for over a year now. Are they all biased too?
It was me. I was polled 525 times.
Lets forget for a second who the poll is saying will win and look at a bigger question about polls themselves. Recent polls showing swings back and forth by 6% suggest that their are fundamental flaws in the process.
A large swing can happen on a major event (eg 9-11) and an outlier can occur with any set of data
but
we had two polls with Labor at 60%
followed by two polls with Labor on 56%
followed by this with Labor on 60%
I have not noticed any earthshattering events that could have caused these sort of swings so I must assume either
-there is a huge number of voters who just answer anything
-their is a 5% at any one time that are not really attached (are they the same 5%)
-their is fundamental flaws in the different sampling/weighting processes.
ifonly we can never know. I think the safest bet is just to not pay too much attention to these polls and pay more attention once the campaign begins and draws to an end. That’s when they begin to be more accurate.
Will the long weekend/football grand finals affect Newspoll?
Or
Will there be a Newspoll given the long weekend/football grand finals?
Newspoll is out Tuesday in the Australian
thanks james
:)
I was polled a few years ago by Morgan(face to face), and I live in a safe Liberal seat. I’d assume Morgan does their polling in safe Coalition, Safe Labor and marginal seats.
Derek at 299
1)I have heard from informed sources that wish to remain anonymous, that the required leftist haircut dejour is currently a charming bowlcut number with a small mullet chaser.I also hear that it can be picked up for a very reasonable price of $13.99 at Shazzers Cuts and Curls.
2)Currently, an outlier poll is generally considered to be one of those 1 in 20 polls that are a statistical abberation.In the current polling climate, this would be defined as a poll that is 4% or greater off the long run mean level of the polling series over the last 6 months.This would suggest that any poll showing an ALP TPP below 53 or above 61 would be considered an “outlier” – however, this proper statistical term is not to be confused with the quasi-religious “Rogue Poll”.
3)A rogue poll is the verbal weapon of choice for the loud, but secretive Glennist Denial Cult.Although the workings of this organisation remain secret, it has been whispered in some circles that for a poll to pass the Electric Kool Aid Rogue Poll Test requires an ALP TPP above 51%, or a National Party primary vote below 15%.The Rogue Poll however, should not to be confused with other Glennist shibboleths such as the rogue bookie, or the impending rogue voter.
DIManson at 235 & Howard’s last card. The speculation about the U.S. attacking Iran, has, as others have noted, been around for a while. I suspect that if they tried it, the U.S. would implode, the Democrats just wouldn’t have it, they’d probably try and impeach Bush and it would do Howard no favours. Given the majority of the Australian population were against the invasion of Iraq, given it has turned into an absolute disaster in any way you’d like to describe it, any further military intervention on the back of an already failed military intervention would go down like a lead balloon. This poll should be regarded as Aristotle has described, a sample. Sustained trend is more important, and jeez, I like the sustained trend. I suspect the taxpayer funded advertising has become counter productive, that people are getting seriously annoyed by the amount of money being spent on what is clearly the Libs. trying to improve their electoral chances, and no amount of attempted spin by Howard about it being about informing people is working.
If the US strikes Iran it will an air war, aimed at breaking Iran’s infrastructure. We will not be asked to provide troops, but to be in the front line of the cheer squad.
The reason it could be a shock with electoral reverberations here is how Iran chooses to retaliate.
Their options are wide. Iran has the capacity to cause havoc for coalition forces in Iraq, including our own.Their missiles are serious weapons, with Israel within their range. A spike in the oil price to $200 and beyond is more than a possibility. History suggests they like taking hostages, and I think we have an embassy there.
Bon McArthur a largish logistics outfit in western Sydney went into receivership recently.
A large number of Howard’s aspirational owner drivers have been left swinging in the wind by Hockey today – not a brass razoo for them unlike the guaranteed benefits for regular employees that Howard brought in to bail his bother out at National Textiles.
The other risk is a terrorist attack on the Harbor Bridge. (In fact Howard might leave a brown paper package behind on his morning walk.)
Given the polls, I reckon Keelty should be keeping a close eye on Howard and his entourage.
@ 314 Possum Comitatus exhibited genius:
Genius I tells ya! Pure, unadulterated, fluffy-tailed genius!
Yes, yes, yes
:):) ….. and that was my point earlier in comparing to the Canadian election. No one expects the results to be literally as dire as they were in Canada in 1993. However, compared to our previous elections, this will be comparable when all is said and done. The Libs will be lucky if Downer is left with a seat 
. They can start looking at anything from 13% onwards to their most safe seat and pick their new leader from amongst those folks. He or she can get ready for a nice long tour of duty in the opposition 
Albert Ross you’re just plain wrong!!
Please read the following: http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22497567-31037,00.html
Comments about Iran are only being let through if they relate to the election.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
From the Australian –
Joe is Janette’s man
AS John Howard has to fight, for the first time in years, to hold his own formerly safe Liberal seat of Bennelong against high-profile former ABC presenter Maxine McKew, his local paper, The Northern District Times, has revealed that he won’t even be able to count on the vote of his loyal and loving wife Janette in the election. The newspaper has discovered that Janette couldn’t have voted for the PM for more than 30 years. On the electoral roll, the couple list their primary place of residence as the PM’s official Sydney residence, Kirribilli House, and while the PM still can vote for himself in Bennelong because he is the local member, Janette (presumably) will be voting for the member for North Sydney, Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey. The last time she would have been able to vote for her spouse was in 1975. After that their family home in Wollstonecraft was redistributed out of Bennelong and into North Sydney, where it has been ever since.
There is the hill. Their chooks are free to roam.
Are you suggesting that George would attack Iran just to help his buddy Johnny? I have a better theory put forward by the Chaser. The invasion of Iraq was a spelling mistake so now their invading Iran.
Talking about rogue voters (or should that be rouge as in red voters?)
Here is the exclusive script on election eve
Abbott: These poll figures are a joke, right?
Voter: Why aren’t you laughing then?
Abbott: Well, if they’re not, just be very careful what you wish for!
Voter: Couldn’t be more determined!
Abbott: You can’t reverse it, you know?
Voter: That’s why it feels so much better.
Abbott: Oh well shit happens!
Voter: Indeed the smell is unbearable. Time for an urgent change.
Abbott: It’s not so bad. It’s all good stuff. Don’t be so precious!!!
Voter: On the contrary, haven’t been precious enough…
Abbott: With such ungrateful and opinionated voters like youse, who would want to be in Government anyway. Give me the Exclusive Brethrens any day…
DIManson at 316. I still think the U.S. would be taking any enormous risk of severe internal backlash, opening another front, even if they tried to confine it to an air war, could, probably would be disatrous, particularly given Iran’s capacity to respond. So while it would deliver some electoral shock, it could well be negative rather than positive for the Libs. Dubbya didn’t exactly cover himself or his mate JWH in glory at APEC, thanking him for hosting OPEC and for the Austrian troops. Recent exposure of George reading from fu net ik idiot sheets for T.V. just confirms, if such was needed, what a total dolt he is.
John of Melbourne
I know that it the poor benighted Kick ‘n’ giggle land you cant read but I was referring to the owner drivers not the employees. Widen your reading to http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/28/2046626.htm
Anyone know who is on Lateline tonight? (The 7:30 show doesn’t run on Fridays)
I hear and obey, William.
Mr Possum @ 313
” … a small mullet chaser … $13.99 …”
What a deal! Thanks for the info. Will rush out, forthwith.
Would Howard be silly enough to join Bush in a strike against Iran? Surely not …?
It’d be hilarious if the only Ministers to retain their seats were Downer and Ruddock LOL
Seriously, you have to expect Costello, Bishop, Vaille, Nelson and a few others will comfortably retain their seats.
Ministerial casulties could be Howard, Gary Nairn and maybe Fran Bailey(the only ones I can think of for now).
Oh, I forgot Turnball, but he’s probably more of a chance than Howard of holding his seat.
Possum, you clever marsupial, The Electric Kool Aid Acid Test as applied to the Glenistas. I suppose it’s occurred to more than a few that we already have Fear and Loathing on the Faux Campaign Trail?
SBS World News just played a good part of the GetUp “Climate Clever” ad in a report. Good to see!
Monica – it could get worse you know.
“Glen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance”!
But that’s a bit rough – it’s all in good fun Glen, I promise the next joke I make will be at Nostros expense
Oblig Pollbludgerishness.
The Fin Review Magazine “Power Edition” today had Crosby Textor at number 7 in their top 10 covert power list.
Makes you wonder what for – lifting the ALP vote perhaps?
Aristotle’s polling summaries are up here, now with graphs and commentary on media-reporting of polls.
http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=51&Itemid=1
Does anyone else have a view on how the Prime and Sub Prime Minister arrangement might be having an effect on the Libs.? I would have thought they’d find it extremely unsettling, to say the least. I notice people like, was it Abbott? rabbiting on about Julia having a handbag full of knives waiting for Kevvie baby and thinking at the time, Hmmm, this lot don’t know about projection. Sorry, Julie ABC TV just had who was on Lateline and I missed it because I was still listening to PM.
HH @ 331
“Could be …” being the operative words. Hater, there is a long way to go. Rattus has huge resources at his disposal.
A rat on a sinking ship is not a pleasant sight to behold. He will fight to the bloody end, lashing out at anything that moves. Blood and guts slopping around in the bilge. The stink becomes unbearable. No one on board is capable of climbing the rat-lines to set a sail …
Good result and hope it is repeated on election day, a result like this would send shudders through every party in and out of power, if it could happen once it could happen again, and would truly hand the power back to the people.
Albert
Re Howards bail out of employees and ignoring the sub-contractor owner drivers.
Similar happened when he bailed out his brothers company, I know one of the subbies was done $25,000 to $30,000, he appeared in an interview and was furious,yet still did his dough cold. Meanwhile Stan retired peacefully to his acrerage to illegally clear native shrub, whilst the subbie, who I know personally struggled on.
Stan could also be in line to benefit from Howards $170,000 to farmers. Get a good accountant to “sell” your farm from one family owned company to another, and hey bingo $170,000 from the libs.
But Howards largese with some and ignoring others such as the subbies could be another reason why he is slipping in the polls.
I reckon the reason that Howard is delaying is not for hope of turning the polls around. He is just hoping to turn one poll around: Bennelong
He does not want to be the second PM to lose his seat. He is doing everything he can to hold his seat – that is all he cares about now.
The Howard supporters commenting on this blog are 100% correct.
The polls (all of them) are wrong.
Yes, thats right, for the past 12 months, all of them have been wrong, and Howard will actually be returned with an increased majority. Ooohh I dont know, lets say with 98 seats!
Oh, and Rudd will lose his seat too.
I guess Labor supporters should start letterboxing in the seat of Batman now.
#337 Derek Corbett. “Rattus has huge resources at his disposal.” I don’t know whether you have noticed but he is already using them with zero effect.
(Coming back after a few hours in the RW, where I can report it is cold and wet)
Frank, thanks for those posts about Chris Myson.
Charlie, I didn’t say the map I posted
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007maps/hypothetical.shtml
was a prediction. I said it was my opinion of how things are now. A lot can happen twixt now and polling day.
Possum, you can call me Snapper, and shall we call the 2007 election “The Bonfire of the Vanities”?
There is still a nasty wild card in the pack for Howard and thats a whipped public service who will be seeing a real opportunity for emancipation. This can bring embarassing leaks and contradiction of statements. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rudd knew every single thing Howard has planned.
Adam, sorry for the misinterpretation. Can I still trouble you for a list of your second-tier seats, so to speak? FWIW, I did my conservative list and came up with the same seats, except that I listed Deakin and did not list Bowman.
Andos #333.
The GetUp! counter is over $215,000. Amazing, amazing.
kina @ 344, I think the pattern we have seen repeated time and time again this year of Rudd getting in a few days ahead of Coalition policy announcements suggests that you are exactly right. Labor has a mole/moles, most likely in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, and they have been using the information to great advantage during the year.
That’s an interesting observation, Kina, given some stuff that’s been fed to me from various family members in the Fed. public service. Wouldn’t be at all surprised, and frankly, JWH sounded like a beaten man on the ABC news tonight.
” 268
libsrok Says:
September 28th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
stolen from matt prices blog
TONY: You’re really playing the blame game something outrageous now, Julia.
JULIA: Oh look I listened to professor
TONY: … trying to blame the Federal government is just ridiculous
JULIA: I listened to …
TONY: come on, get serious Julia.
JULIA: Well, I am being serious about our hospitals
Did anybody see that on TV this morning? How did it look? As bad as it sounds?”
Where can I see a transcript or see the footage apparently on tv? I would like to see this debate .. is there a link on the net?
Kina
Howard has the public service too terrified to write letters to the paper or answer an opinion poll honestly yet alone leak items. SBS had a show on Insight about the leak to the journos on his plan to do war widows out of a pension rise. The resulting investigation saw 3,000 phones bugged in that department, 3,000 just to find out who leaked the truth. That is an enormous amount of resources.
Another public servant had to go to the High Court to affrim his right to speak out on non-confiential government policy, after that defeat Howard has proposed laws making it an offence for public servants to speak out on any government related information.
It is well known that most departments keep a file on letters etc critical of their department, was reported in the SMH that a Centrelink client was stunned to be confronted with a letter she had written compalining about government services.
The private industry is just as bad with recent reports of people sacked for speaking out against their company on industrial matters.
Daiv Marr wrote an excellent article “Careful he might hear you” on Howard’s slow stiggling of free speech.
Maybe this Morgan poll is a true reflection in that people are more comfortable giving their answer to an identified pollster face to face rather than to an anonymous phone caller who could be anyone.
Any US strike on Iran is likely to be only a few raids – the Pentagon lacks the public support, and possibly the resources to run an extended campaign.
There may well be a coalition poll bounce in response to any such raids, but I would be surprised if it was very large or very sustained – most voters likely to back the attack will be voting coalition already. Unless George tells John 33 days in advance I don’t think it will affect the timing of the election.
The bigger affect on the polls would happen in the weeks following any attack on Iran, when the increased oil price flows through to the bowser.
Arbie Jay @338. Thanks for that info. Confirms other reports.
Joni @339
Agree. Seems he could well be the second PM to lose his seat, not a good look for his cherished legacy.
Have issued instructions to certain Labor MPs to ensure Maxine wins seat of Bennelong. Self-protection. My wife wants him dumped. I like to keep her happy.
Charlie, now that Laming has apparently been cleared I might move Bowman from my A list to my B list, although my Qld source told me last week that it wasn’t just because of printgate that he was in trouble, but because of his arrogant manner. I agree that Deakin is probably close to inclusion, but it has a long history of not swinging so I am sceptical. Seats on my B list would include Canning, Boothby, Sturt, McMillan, McEwen, Wentworth, Robertson, Paterson, Cowper (also a non-swinger, but Labor obviously thinks something is stirring up there), Forde, Longman (although my Qld source says Brough is very popular locally), Flynn and maybe Leichhardt.
Has been torrential rain here for an hour! Nice.
Lomandra, supporters of GetUp! have been fantastic over the past couple of days. Would that be $100,000 in just one day? I think it was only just touching the hundred grand mark late yesterday.
Apparently, the average size of donations are around the $50 mark, which says something about the number of people who feel that Howard’s new spin on his government’s climate change credentials needs to be countered.
To those who haven’t seen GetUp!s advertisement, which will now be aired during the AFL grand final tomorrow alongside the plethora of taxpayer funded Liberal party advertisements, then you can see it here:
https://www.getup.org.au/campaign/ClimateCleverer&id=128
JJ @ 335: Those averages/trends look so good. Especially when taken with a dose of Possum’s goodness about “The Narrowing”.
How much of a comeback can there possibly be?
Noocat @ 355: That would be $200k in two days then… a hell of a lot of people are going to see that ad!
I wonder if Anthony Green would comment on the liklihood that this Morgan poll is a good relflection of the reality of voting intentions
Noocat, $50 was how much I gave. A full-time student friend of mine managed $5. I’m guessing there might be some who forked out a hundred bucks or so, but a $50 average sounds plausible. And yes, you’re absolutely right. A massive response. (Andos is right. The campaign was launched three days ago, Thursday at 1pm it was at $30,000, 24 hours later at $130,000, and pretty soon it’ll be at $230,000.)
Warms the cockles of my heart, it does.
Has anyone considered there could be a “widening” when the ALP and various unions really start to advertise?
Adam. Re Longman.
Brough is in trouble in the new housing estates. His electorate has a lot of people who can’t afford Brisbane or the Sunny Coast. The area has changed a lot since 2004. He looks very shaky according to people I know.
Thank you William for a truly excellent site for learning more, the interaction with people who are as politically engaged as obviously all are, and your moderation. You are a treasure. Post this. You deserve it.
November 10th, 17th, 24th or December 1st.
Which date? It has to be one of them. All other options are unpalatable to the electorate.
After this poll I’m tipping November 17th. The chattering amongst government MPs will start again.
These Morgan numbers are apocalyptic.
Adam, no Kalgoorlie? I have it on the ‘B list’, although I realise it is notoriously hard to pick. Not being from WA I can’t be confident, but it is my understanding that most of the mining wealth is flying in and out of the electorate, and that there is some local bitterness about rising cost of living? Might be a seat to keep an eye on.
Other seats I have in that middle group are Greenway and Gippsland, whose margin I suspect is overstated from the 2004 Latham/forestry backlash. Throw in the drought and McGauran’s got a bit to worry about.
ruawake, demographically Longman OUGHT to be a Labor snaffle, it’s very much the unglamorous bit between Brisbane and the Coast, with lots of Howard battlers ready to flip over WC, interest rates etc, but as we know Qld seats frequently don’t vote as demography suggests they should. Brough has been getting lots of press and appears to be a reasonably decent chap for a Liberal (if you know what I mean). You may be right, but my sources are sceptical at this point.
Charlie, I think those belong on the C list. My WA sources are emphatic that Kalgoorlie isn’t moving. WA Labor has five vital Perth marginals to worry about so they’re probably not spending much in Kalgoorlie, which must be a very expensive seat to campaign in.
Comparing the statistics from:
http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=51&Itemid=1
and
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/27/the-narrowing/
does the current trend seem to reflect the lead up to the ‘96 election to anyone else?
Higher two party preferred this time around?
second that Monica {what an unusual nick} i dont add much here but i read it all and absorb everyone’s opinions.
One possible reason Howard hasn’t gone yet is that he may well have accepted that both he and the government are probably going to lose, and so is just hanging on long enough for one more parliamentary session to ram through a bunch of stuff, and to do it in such a way that it will be very (legally, economically and politically) difficult for the incoming Labor government to alter.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=13.2&nsw=0&vic=0&ql
This shows Bennelong going to Labor with a 9.1% margin. Even if it is half that, it will be an amazing result, the icing on the cake.
Has been torrential rain here for an hour! Nice.
kina 354
Yes, very welcome. And I was a wise old local and went to the Palmerston markets early, while the sky was still clear, coz I know just how quick it can cloud up.
#360 ruawake. I’ve been suggesting that all along. Especially with the IR ads the Nuclear Power station ads thrown in together. I’ve just checked and the Nuclear Power station ad has disappeared from the ALP site. That would be very bad if they got rid of that ad.
A Geelong premiership might save Macarthur in Corangamite.
Especially if he has photos in the local paper holding the premeriership cup wearing a beanie, scarf and jumper.
What I mean to say is this…
Every now and then, there is an election result that sticks in the history books and people refer to it for years and years into the future.
For example, when Kennet when lost the bush in 98, or when John Major snuck in a surpise win 19??.
Is the 2007 result going to provide a new phrase in election history, a new word to describe ‘total anihilation”…..ie something bigger than a ‘landslide’?
How did the word ‘landslide” come to be used in a election context?
is this going to be a ‘mudslide?”, or “Kruddslide”
What should it be my friends, tell me? Is this
1) 2007 – The Woodstock of Elections?
2) 2007 – A winter palace revolution?
3) 2007 – “Waterloo” finally leaves common speech – now replaced by “Bennelong”
does anyone know whats on lateline tonight?
Arbie Jay and Kina
You may find this little story interesting.
My wife wrote a letter to a federal minister.
In due course she received a response, quite detailed, that showed somebody had read her letter and addressed some of her issues directly more or less.
Signed [electronically I presume] by the minister.
A few weeks later I received a letter, addressed to me [complete with spelling error] that was a copy of the former.
Verbatim.
Here’s the punch line.
I had nothing to do with my wife’s letter.
My name [misspelt or otherwise] did not appear in it.
And my name is different to that of my wife.
So how did they find out who I was?
[OK I can actually figure that out myself, it would involve a bit of legwork but I can see how it could be done with government resources].
More importantly….WHY send me a copy of the letter at all when, theoretically at least, it had nothing to do with me?
Smelly.
Speaking of political uprisings, does anyone know of any protests planned around Australia in support of the people of Myanmar ?
I saw there was a small one in Canberra today, what about other centres?
I’m delighted to see Nostradamus, Glen and now A-C posting their comments on this thread as they’re always good for a laugh.
But this thread could be a lot more hilarious if Cerdic Conan, Steven Kaye and the other “trolls” join them as well.
Perhaps with practice they could reach the satirical heights of esoteric detachment from real life that Dennis Shanahan and Piers Akerman so effortlessly display!
“#
268
libsrok Says:
September 28th, 2007 at 4:34 pm
stolen from matt prices blog
TONY: You’re really playing the blame game something outrageous now, Julia.
JULIA: Oh look I listened to professor
TONY: … trying to blame the Federal government is just ridiculous
JULIA: I listened to …
TONY: come on, get serious Julia.
JULIA: Well, I am being serious about our hospitals
TONY: You can’t blame the Federal government for the problems at Royal North Shore Hospital.
JULIA: I’m not talking about an individual case here, Tony, I wouldn’t politicise an individual case
TONY: Oh don’t be precious
JULIA: I was asked about the hospital system
TONY: … don’t be precious Julia.
JULIA: I was asked about the hospital system …
TONY: You are being very precious now.
JULIA: There were cuts in 1996 to GP training places
TONY: There were no cuts …
JULIA: There were cuts, Tony.
TONY: There were no cuts to medical training places
JULIA: There were cuts to GP training places in 1996.
TONY: Come on, stop your verbal diarrhoea Julia, and let me have my say.
JULIA: Well, try the truth.
Remember, we’ve not yet started the formal campaign for an election which could be almost two months away. Strap yourselves in.
what a champ abott is. the pig”
Where can I look this up? is there a url someone can give me?
Charlie says:
“Gippsland, whose margin I suspect is overstated from the 2004 Latham/forestry backlash. Throw in the drought and McGauran’s got a bit to worry about.”
Yes indeed! Also factor in the Equine Flu concerns about quarantine (for which McGauran is responsible), plus the fact that at the last election there was internecine strife between the ALP candidate and the Trades hall in Traralgon, and we’ve got a possible pull back to the pre latham time, when the seat was on ~3%.
The ALP candidate is a former mayor of Bairnsdale, not well known in Traralgon..given the hot house atmospere of ALP politics in the Valley, this is a real advantage!
nic @ 376
Matt Price’s blog at the Oz:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mattprice/index.php/theaustralian/comments/silly_cycle_in_full_swing/
Fred
I have heard and read similar stories, the easiest way to get your name would be through Family Assistance office and justified on grounds that they need to know their constituents concerns and keep them informed, and if your wife is concerned, well then so are you!
Gippslander
Equine flu is hitting the rural areas hard as well as the racing industries in the cities. As well as races being cancelled, horses are banned from shows, pony club meetings cancelled, rodeos cancelled. The racing industry is being compensated by the government but not the other organisations and the big losers are the casual workers who rely on the work to pay bills and make ends meet who get no help at all.
fred, do you live at the same address as your wife?
Funny joke about JWH’s lies for those who have not heard it.
Subject: Heavenly Clocks
A man died and went to heaven. As he stood in front of St. Peter at the Pearly Gates,he saw a huge wall of clocks behind him. He asked, “What are all those clocks?†St. Peter answered, “Those are Lie-Clocks. Everyone on Earth has a Lie-Clock. Every time you lie the hands on your clock will move.â€
“Oh,†said the man, “Whose clock is that?†“That’s Mother Teresa’s. The hands have never moved,indicating that she
never told a lie.†“Incredible,†said the man. “And whose clock is that one?†St. Peter responded, “That’s Abraham Lincoln’s clock.The hands have moved twice telling us that Abe told only two lies in his entire life.â€
“Where’s John Howard’s Lie Clock?†asked the man. “ Johnny Howards’ clock is in God’s office. He’s using it as a ceiling fan.
Just me @ 368
Quite so. The old scorched-earth policy. However, any legislation rammed through by Rattus in his dying days would, surely, be subject to review and rejection if labor were to gain government. The mandate thing.
Monica @ #361:
Long-time listener, first-time caller. Agree 100% with your post – I really enjoy the variety of opinions and intelligent discussion on display here. Even though I don’t think I have much to add, I really enjoy learning from the insights of other posters. So…William, just a quick comment to thank you for the effort you put into the site – keep up the good work.
Yes but since the Coalition plus Fielding will probably still have a majority in the Senate, Labor will not be able to undo legislation which the government pushes through now. That’s why a Rudd government probably means a DD in 2008. Costello would then become the Bill Snedden of the 2000s. What an epitaph!
Gippslander @377
From what I have heard, McG is not an effective use of space. This is from some years back. His handling of the neddy flu might just bring his ineptness to a wider audience. Landed gentry do not perform well in times of crisis.
the recent figures seem to range from a low 55% 2pp for Labor
to this one 60%
maybe this agrees with the libs internal polling
maybe this is why Mr Howard is campaigning so hard In Bennelong
According to the Guardian (London), Gordon Brown may be about to call a snap poll for November 1. The story http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2179028,00.html
also talks about the possibility of further Tory defectors to the Labour camp, which would only put Cameron into further disarray.
Are any of you ALP guys in discussions with Petro? On current predictions, he needs all the help he can get. How about a bit of quid pro quo here?
Possum writes:
“You Victorians need to get your act together and behave yourselves.You’re making my abacus explode.”
No matter what happens I think you can mark “Murray” up for the Liberals.
Hope that helps.
Adam
We live in the donga so we use a post box.
For both of us.
Which is how I guess they got my name [it doesn't explain the spelling error of such].
But really the issue is: why did they [I presume some flunky was told to do it] go to the bother of finding out who I am and then sending me a copy of the letter they had some weeks previously sent to her?
Arbie’s suggestion is plausible but I don’t buy it.
Try to follow the train of thought they musty have followed….”Here is a letter from some woman, you there Joe or Josie, see if she has a significant other and send a copy to him’.
What else?
Why?
When I got it I thought of contacting them and asking why they sent it to me.
I put it on my ‘to do’ list.
And forgot.
I’ve actually been *in* Canberra for the last 36 hours, so it’s a pleasant surprise to return to find another fine mess that the Coalition has gotten itself into.
A primary vote of 36%, eh? Pretty difficult to win an election with that, especially when the minor party preferences don’t usually flow your way. Keep this up and they’ll be a minor party themselves.
Should be a very interesting poll week next week. I think this result can be put down to the fact that the coalition resorted back to form straight away after pledging to be a team and promote positive policies. It took them only a few days to start mudslinging again and I think they’ve dug themselves an even deeper hole than before.
Howard should have called the election months ago. It can only get worse from here.
Adam said
But FF opposes WorkChoices, so there’s a good chance they would vote with the ALP if this was the trigger?
My theory for what it is worth is that
1. Electorate got very peeved when Costello muted as new Leader.
SWING BACK TOBS)
Re joe’s story, here’s a little rundown on how MPs target voters
All MPs’ offices have an electronic version of the electoral roll provided to them by the AEC, updated every month. This can be searched by name, address, postcode, LGA, age, gender, ethnic surnames etc. Both sides of politics have invented applications which enable MPs to link the electoral roll to their mass-mailing system, so that they can target a letter to all voters (say) aged over 60, or living in a particular suburb, or with Greek surnames. Every letter, email, visit or phonecall from a constituent is logged into the system to build up a database of voters who are (for example) Centrelink clients, or concerned about climate change, or war veterans, thus enabling further refinement of mail targetting. One of the reasons MPs send out newsletters with those little questionnaires is so that they can harvest the responses for voting intention, issues of interest etc, which can be targetted later. People who say they vote for the other side are tagged “no mail” so postage is not wasted on them. Petitions serve the same purpose: anyone who signs a petition on, say, climate change, can expect to get mail on that issue later. A diligent MP (or rather an MP with diligent staff) can have 20 or 30% of all his/her electors logged after a few years, depending on the turnover in the particular seat. This is one reason why it has become progressively harder to defeat incumbents. The targetted mail system is a powerful weapon for incumbents, particularly since this government has hugely increased the amount which MPs can spend on printing and postage. Building up a list of postal voters, and of people who need to be helped to vote, is also very important.
So, joe, if your spouse contacted your MP about anything at all, your household is now in their system tagged in relation to whatever the issue was. I agree that sending you an identical letter is a rather crude way of using the system. Some MPs are better at exploiting it than others, and those in safe seats have less incentive to use it to its full potential.
My theory, for what it is worth is that
1. Electorate got very peeved when Costello muted as new Leader. (Swing to LABOR).
2. Howard confirms he will lead Libs to election (Swing back to Libs).
3. Electorate intends to vote Howard out. (Swing back to Labor).
They want the organ grinder, not the monkey.
Is it possible that Brown could both call an election (early) and have an election and we would still not have ours called? Just got off of Yahoo UK and the date they are tossing about is 25 October (would have to be called NLT Tuesday London time). The Brits traditionally go on Thursdays. (Why I don’t know, if there is anyone on board who can explain, please do).
Scotty @ 389
“I’ve actually been *in* Canberra for the last 36 hours …”
So, Scotty, do I read from this they have 36 hours to go, sweating in the bunker. The “last” 36 hours. Ever.
Anyway, what’s the mood?
Derek @ 395
No idea how long they’ve got, but I’m sure they’re sweating.
Canberra was much the same. A lot more rubbish on the streets than the last time I was there (about a month ago). While I was there, my conservative boss was with me, grumbling about how those “bloody lefties” had let the town go to pot, and that they couldn’t get anything done.
Didn’t buy a Canberra Times, but I read an article in a local magazine by the leader of the ACT Libs complaining about unfair treatment by them, and just grumbling. Sure sucks to be a conservative and live in Canberra.
ruawake@360: if the ALP is smart, they’d end every ad they run with something like “This ad paid for with ALP money”. I’ve been amazed this week to hear quite a number of normally apolitical people bitching about the wall-to-wall ads on TV. The radio ads for tomorrow are a good step in that direction. It plays into establishing a “desperately grasping at anything he can” message they should be setting about Howard.
I reckon they should put a dollar amount at the bottom left corner of these govt adds showing the cumulative amount spent so far, for each add. We can then watch it tick over.
AB@398
It is everywhere!
McGauren comes from a small town called Nambrock which consists of a couple of cowsheds. Spends very little time there. Understand he has a place in Melbourne. This may help in his demise.
Maybe the ads are actually causing people to vote Labor. Hence this poll result.
GG@400: I’m lucky, I almost never watch TV, and what I do is normally ABC. I saw the now-pulled union thugs one a couple of weekends ago and initially assumed it was a parody. If the rest of the ads are of similar quality, I’m not surprised people are grumpy.
Can people who watch this stuff answer this? How many different ads are they running? Is it just the same 3 or 4 ads, repeated over and over? Or are the ads just simple variations on a theme? Or are they being smart enough to run different ads at least?
Growler
Er, yes, it was a muted endorsement of P. Smirk when he was mooted as the next PM.
well there you go
obvious really
the majority of the sheeple have awoken from their imposed slumber
i actually think we are finally headed to redemption time
oh well HowardJ will use every trick to stay one more xmas in kirribilli-for the children of course
just one small note of warning
“maintain the rage or howard will take centre stage”
AB,
You have seen the cream of he crop. These are as good as it gets.
Derek, Please explain……
Look what happens when the Exclusive Brethren get access to telephones: http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/bomb-threat-halts-show/2007/09/28/1190486570992.html
#
365
Adam Says:
“WA Labor has five vital Perth marginals to worry about so they’re probably not spending much in Kalgoorlie, which must be a very expensive seat to campaign in.”
Does seat by seat campaigning really change the outcome?
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/28/2046801.htm?section=justin
Anthony @ 403
My main observations of the ads was during the sporting matches on the weekend and they really are intolerable. The current IR ones have 3-4 along the same line with the same 2 ‘average joes’ talking about how the laws are all good, you’d see at least one, maybe two each ad break. Then there are the ones about the superannuation reforms which are getting a decent run too. I havent seen the climate change ones, but add those in and you really are getting an overload, what with the news updates having at least one political soundbite as well.
They are the type of ads where one viewing isnt too bad (and may even swing some people back) but where seeing them all the time is like having the same fact told to you again and again and again.
Labor’s great move has been in the fact that anyone who sees the ads now will have probably seen them a good 20-50 times already and will think ‘Yes they are getting a bit much aren’t they’.
I think that we are safe on the “will GB attack Iran?” front.
From the Washington Post in part – UNITED NATIONS, Sept. 27 — The U.N. Security Council probably will delay a move to impose new sanctions against Iran until December, when U.N. weapons inspectors conclude a review of Iran’s past nuclear activities, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said Thursday.
Also from the WP – ANALYSIS
With Legacy in Mind, Bush Reassesses His Agenda
http://tinyurl.com/3ak2r3
I don’t think that since he is concerned about his legacy that he will go invading Iran unilateraly. The first piece also seems to indicate that the groundwork isn’t even layed for the UN to do anything anyways.
JWH will not get his Tampa from Washington, folks, no worries there.
NATIONAL PARTY-DON’T RISK RUDD AD
If you read this, The Nationals are pretty much running a Liberal campaign. Shouldn’t they be running a campaign on purely Nationals issues. You feel here they are only preaching to the small business (or conservative) converted. This isn’t going to appeal to most people in the bush, mostly the above mentioned. You feel if the Liberals-Nationals, this side can go on into the future, but purely as a voice for the bush, not as a Liberal lackey.
If Howard-Liberals have any chance, he should call an election when he possibly can. It is the only way he may get any policy or popularity momentum.
With the election result though, you do get the feeling Rudd-Labor would really have to stuff this up badly to lose from here.
I agree with Adam (384). I can smell a double dissolution coming on in 2008 – and the sooner the better. The ALP would be a moral to win it and get all of its IR and other legislation through in a joint sitting, similar to what Gough Whitlam did after the 1974 DD.
I think we can assume that the liberals will be obstructive enough and stupid enough to provide the trigger, so the only question is – is Kevin Rudd ruthless enough and ballsy enough to do it. I believe he is.
Scotty @397
Thanks for that. Love the stench of cold sweat in the chill Canberra air, eh?
charles, while my view has always been that most suburban seats go with the statewide swing regardless of local factors, that obviously assumes that candidates make some effort to help themselves get elected. I would think the quality of local candidates and their campaign might make a 2% difference in a suburban seat. That clearly means it can effect the outcome in a number of seats. In 2004 there were 17 seats with margins under 2%. In country seats I think candidate and campaign factors matter a lot more. So in WA Labor will have had to make a decision on whether to make a serious bid for Kalgoorlie or not.
The Greens should have the balance of power. So unless the Greens oppose Labor. There shouldn’t be any need.
sorry William i cant resist printing the latest Howard joke.
JOHN HOWARD STAMP
Australia Post created a stamp with a picture of John Howard to honour his achievements. Unfortunately, the stamp was not sticking to envelopes.
This enraged our Prime Minister, who demanded a full investigation into the matter.
After a month of testing, the investigation revealed three findings:
1. The stamp is in perfect order.
2. There is nothing wrong with the applied adhesive.
3. People are spitting on the wrong side.
Charles@408 – it does in a seat like Kalgoorlie. Personal vote factors count for alot – consider Campbell turned the seat into a stronghold for himself, first with the ALP and then as an Independent. Robin Chapple from the Greens almost doubled his vote in Mining & Pastoral at a time the rest of the state was stable (or slipping backwards) by building those personal and community links, but it took time and energy. Plus it’s bloody huge, it has a lot of different populations (coastal, mining, fishing, Pilbara, Kimberley, indigenous etc) and it costs a lot to cover with advertising. And when it had a high number of live on-site miners it was easier for the ALP. With Fly-In Fly-Out mining operations now those miners now vote in the city, so its a tougher call.
Darn @413.
On these figures, Labor will not need a double dissolution because they will get a majority in the Senate.
You got to understand how pissed the electorate is with Work Choices. It is all pervasive, it is stopping BBQs, it is giving people a real passion to want to make a difference.
Speaking of double dissolutions…
Trivia question for the night: what is the ‘nexus clause’?
Dario,
Nexus Clause is the brother of Santa.
LOL gg
GG, in which two mainland states will Labor + Greens get four quotas? That’s what’s required for a Senate majority.
sorry, delete “mainland” from that question.
SA, Vic
Dario
what everyone is thinking about worstchoices mk2
the “nex(t) us” clause
that Howard and Hockey aint talking about
add Tas into that mix as well
Nice try gus… have another go
Adam,
Dario has pre-empted me, but with 54% Primary, heh, the numbers speak for themseves.
This ain’t a rout, it is a massacre.
I agree the chances of Labor/Greens getting 57% in two states have increased, but I still think it’s unlikely. I agree that Tas, SA and Vic are the best bets, and even NSW is a possibility.
GG: seriously? The rest are worse? Dear gods. I think I can see why they’re 21 points behind, then.
Lateline has a couple of retired political consultants on – Michael Costello ex-ALP, Ian Kortlang ex-Lib. (Costello’s lop-sided eyeballs really are distracting)
Kortlang is trying to claim the “election called = circuit breaker” line. He seems to be of the mindset that the electorate aren’t really paying attention, and they’ll grow up and vote liberal once the election is called. Call this the Abbott theory: the voters are just ignorant, they’ll come around.
Kortlang also believes the oversaturation of taxpayer-funded ads is harming the government.
I suspect the rise in Morgan is a result of their “good week†last. Scared the punters a bit.
Any sign that Rodent is back in it will lead to an immediate 3% poll boost for the ALP.
In sum, I have no doubt punters intend to vote Howard out, and do it big. Any sense of momentum will lead to immediate ALP counterswings. Thi is why the “think LNP will win†went up six at the same time. Panicked punters switching to Rudd, thinking Rodent was back in the game.
Spinning momentum plays nicely into Rudd’s hands. Thanks GG et al.
Dead government walking.
Dario: wikipedia says the nexus clause is S24 of the Constitution:
24. The House of Representatives shall be composed of members directly chosen by the people of the Commonwealth, and the number of such members shall be, as nearly as practicable, twice the number of senators.
“Roll out to Bashir”? Wouldn’t that be the govenor of NSW?
Is the guy on lateline suggesting that Howard will call the election when the Major General Govenor General will be out of the country?
24. The House of Representatives shall be composed of members directly chosen by the people of the Commonwealth, and the number of such members shall be, as nearly as practicable, twice the number of the senators.
This is the dreaded nexus clause.
Lateline tonight highlights the importance of the campaign.
With a brilliant campaign, the Government CAN win this.
Who is the best campaigner in Australia?
John Howard.
Well that’s just cheating anthony. But yes, it’s the clause in the constitution that maintains the 2:1 ratio of HOR to the Senate.
Why was this so important? Is it because it limits the total number of federal politicians?
When Hawke increased the size of the House of Reps in 1984, was this supported or opposed by the Liberal and National parties?
Hawke was stupid enough to increase the size of the Senate, and reduce the quota to a level that allows “unrepresentative swill”, such as The Greens and Family First, to capture the balance of power.
Of course the Coalition Opposition opposed this at the time.
It ensures that a joint sitting of parliament following a double dissolution will have 2:1 seats for HOR & Senate. This keeps the power in such an event with the numbers in the HOR.
Just a couple of things to add to the Iran possibility.
First, if Iran replied to an attack in very unpleasant ways, which would seem likely, it would put Rudd in a quite a difficult position. You can be sure that Howard would play the wedge as if his life depended on it.
SNIP. Following points have nothing to do with Australian politics – PB
B*$$ S^#@! Howard was a good campaigner 10 years ago, but not anymore.
oh my god
greg daniel on lateline said the voters arent listening
wtf are we doing
playing tiddlywinks
these people dont get it
“see no evil hear no evil speak no evil”
Check out Possum on Howard as campaigner, Nafe. Latest post.
Basically, he’s won two campaigns (increased his figures throughout), and actually lost ground on the other two.
In sum, he’s overrated as a campaigner.
And without Sino, he’s seems actually pretty bloody hopeless at it so far.
87 style. Maybe you werent around then. What a turkey of a campaign that was!
Admittedly Joh didnt help, but “incentivation”. Bahaha. Puhlease!
It suits all the vested interests- political, journalistic and commercial to contend that the election is going to be close.
The reality is there is no bottom to the Liberal vote.
Antony Green said earlier that on today’s Morgan figures Labor would win 128, the Coalition 20 and 2 independents.
I recommend anyone that is remotely numerically literate to digest Possums contributions and the extent of the disaster for the Libs is unquestionable.
I reckon every Liberal seat is in play in this election.
I love how many political commentators talk of people foussing on the election once it is called and assuming that once they do so they will naturally want to vote for the coalition. Where does this thinking come from?
Adam
Chance Humphries losing his senate seat in the ACT especially in light of this poll.
Especially in light of his cooment the other day that the depression and WW2 meant that the tough times made it easier for people to survive on the pension. IE Humphries basically saying that lving on $263 per week would be like paradise after the depression.
Maybe Howard and co should spin this same line for Work Choices, the low wages and poor conditions are just to get you ready for what life on the pension will be like.
“ACT Liberal senator Gary Humphries has made a public apology for suggesting it was “a good thing” some pensioners had lived through difficult times, such as the Depression World War II, as it prepared them for life on the pension.”
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?story_id=1059021&src=topstories
60.5 – 39.5
So er… hm… you don’t say that er… the honeymoon is over yet, do you?
Gary@445: Desperation?
Honeymoon,
They haven’t left the reception yet!
gary
“assuming that once they do so they will naturally want to vote for the coalition. Where does this thinking come from?”
the handbook of the born to rule aka the Masterclass manual
Yep, Im revising my outer expectations to more in the ‘75 vein, you know, beyond yer standard or garden variety ‘96 style wipeout, to the realms of utter oblivion.
Then again, Whitlam kept his own seat
But as I say – outer expectations.
More likely is a very decisive drubbing, fat lady singing by 9pm, 20 seat majority.
They aint waiting with baseball bats. But with pillows, medication, retirement info, a gold watch … and tolerant smiles.
Sedate and retire the old bugger to shut him up is more the vibe Im getting. Stick a terry towelling hat on his head, he alright. Here’ s a fishing pole, and there’s the door mate, goodonya.
Lefty E,
9pm sound a bit late for me, I bet someone has called it by 7:30. And I also bet Anthony Green will be talking about how the swings are stuffing up his computers
Lefty E,
It is sad really. In a years time JH will be wandering around the streets of wherever he lives telling all that will listen that he used to be PM.
Most will chuckle, move on with their day and think “That could not possibly be true”.
Growler
Just me being a smart arse. Moot. To propose something. Mute. Without speech. Or subdued. Words are bullets.
My apologies if you take offence.
“Nurse, Nurse, Ive got to go keep interest rates low.”
“Sure you do Mr Howard, but there’s plenty of time after lunch and the pokies outing. Just relax. Have a nice cuppa”.
Actually, it kind of does the opposite. It was agreed to on the insistence of the smaller states so that the Senate would not get drowned out by the House at a joint sitting. Those who advocated abolition of the nexus wanted to increase the size of the House.
Derek,
Cannot take offence because I have no idea what you are blogging about!
Take note Tony Abott :
sunnycoaster2
The state governments have had to cover the shortfall, with the result that their share of the $20billion-a-year public hospital budget has risen from 49.7 per cent to 54.7 per cent this year.
William
the senate is the custodian of the states rights (crown)
the HOR is the custodian of the peoples rights (citizen)
therefore the prime objective of the nexus clause is to curtail radical change via the (crown) even though it may have the will of the current society(citizens)
Don’t forget Howard lost his first election in 1967 in Drummoyne, a marginal which given the Askin govt was returned, Howard should have won.
Wouldn’t that have saved us a lot of grief?
Any evidence to this ‘people are not engaged’ until the election is called etc.
Julie, Lateline was a demonstration of why sites such as these have become much more useful than the MSM, particularly the shifted (by the culrural warriors on the ABC Board such as Albrechtson) ABC. You didn’t miss anything. Good night all, and may you enjoy the Festival of the Boot Parts 1 & 2, whatever your proclivities, feetball wise. Sorry William, don’t know that it’s got even a modicum of a relationship to elections etc. so if you dump it I’d more that understand.
William, the power of numbers are still with the HOR in a joint sitting today, otherwise there would be no point in ever calling one. While increasing the size of the house would drown out the senate more, the reverse would also be possible by increasing the size of the senate (not that this would be likely).
It will go down as “The Benelong Event”
Get Up!’s Donation counter is over the $220k mark now. Working men’s sixpences and widows’ mites. Truly we are a latter day Thimble and Bodkin army.
When Newspoll or Galaxy produce fpoll igures starkly different to the other polls, the experts consider the polls to be accurate. However whenever Morgan does the same, they’re considered unreliable. Over the past year Morgan has, in fact, been vindicated for its polling as they’ve consistently given the ALP the greatest lead – only to find other polls echoing their findings later.
With such a vast and widening gap (after a period when the ALP lead narrowed), the media and voter focus may soon switch to the Senate. I wonder if voters will repeat the 2004 mistake by giving the ALP a compliant Senate. I realise this requires a massive swing.
I’m hopefiul that the Democrats will be be voted into their former role. Like the Liberals who are suffering from ignoring the Democrats and creating a rubber-stamp Parliament, an ALP swept into power may also find that the Democrats perform a valuable role – scrutinising and making accountable, amending legislation and getting the blame.
Paul, will you be contesting Melbourne Ports?
I found it interesting to hear Mr Howard say today that he still did not know when the election will be called.Either the polling in his own seat or the Coalition as a whole,is as bad as the Morgan poll showed today.
Why do the commentators think that once the election is called a mass of people are going to change what they have been saying for the last eighteen months and vote for the Coalition?Couldn’t it go the other way as well,with a lot more people deciding to vote for the ALP then are saying so at the present.?Or am I missing something ?
Re Liberal Senator Gary Humphreys of Canberra. I heard him and ALP Senator Kate Lundy speaking on ABC radio this morning. He went through the motions professing confidence, but his heart didn’t seem to be in it. Lundy and the announcer seemed to be almost sympathising with him and didn’t rub it in too much. I have changed my mind re ACT Senate and now think he will lose.
Re : 462
I’m also intrigued by the argument (which dominated Lateline tonight) that people are not yet engaged.
How then can it be explained that so many voters have changed their preference since the last election.
The theory, Paul, is that when Rudd took over from Beazley, people did notice, thought that Rudd was a fresh face and a nice man, and have been saying ever since that they will vote for him. Since then they have stopped paying attention. As soon as the election is called, however, they will realise that he is not a nice man after all, but in fact a communist who wants to take all their money and give it to the CFMEU. Then they will turn back to Howard. That’s the theory.
Paul: The usual excuse (certainly this was the one that Sol gave in his Sydney Institute talk) is that they were just “parking” their vote with the opposition. I’m not quite sure why he thinks that they’d be more likely to park on one side or the other, particularly when this parking would involve changing their vote from last time. No real evidence is presented for this, of course.
I am not dead. Bought a new bike today. One of the electric types. Cool! Carbon credits, anyone?
I notice that someone mentioned that they now classed Greenway as a B list chance for the ALP
I have wondered about Greenway for sometime. The PM has been out here several times and Markus still occupies a prime position behind the PM in QT – the same as when the seat was a squeaker before the redistro.
It should be as safe as well… Mithchell is for the Libs. Anyone got any clues at all.
Markus certainly has no clues at all. Just possibly the good folks of the Hills and Hawkesbury have noticed this.
Plus Labor has given them a handsome Greek lawyer to vote for. What more could they ask for?
Possum has shown fairly convincingly that there are some massive swings happening in nominally ’safe’ Coalition seats. If that’s the case, Greenway, Hughes, Macarthur and possibly Cook – four of the most vulnerable electorates to housing stress in the country – strike me as obvious candidates to be home to such swings.
Handsome Greek Lawyers? Ask the good burghers of Indi how they feel.
All this talk of A and B and C list seats just shows how much these polls have gone to the ALP supporters heads for crying out load the election wont be 60/40 2pp and to continue to act as you have done with complete hubris shows you have lost touch with the electorate…
Howard’s Healthy Eating for Kids Video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v82_svWbb40
Isn’t Howard doing the Libs a disservice by dragging out the election? If Rudd does win, then the Senate will be able to block all legislation up until the new Senate after July 1. By delaying the election it means it will give Rudd less time with a very hostile Senate. If the election is late Nov, when would the first sitting of the new parliament be? Would it be in the new year? If so then Rudd would have just under 6 months with the current Senate. Probably the hardest thing to get through would be the budget.
Glum sez:
Mate I’m not suffering from hubris – Inave seen the ALP snatch defeat from the jaws of vicotry so often I sympathise with Geelong supporters. I just don’t get the Greenway thing at all. On the current boundaries it should be rock solid Liberal or at least an electorate that the Liberals don’t need to put any effort into. Yet there the Liberals are working very hard to keep the seat for someone who frankly hasn’t set the world on fire.
Paul (#467) the ‘experts’ don’t have a clue – if you’re talking about the MSM ‘experts’. This Morgan poll is not starkly different to the other polls – they have all been oscillating within their margin of error above and below a central point somewhere in the 57% Labor 2PP vicinity. Don’t forget that before the most recent 55% Newspoll, the Newspoll a fortnight earlier said 59%. If you take a look at Bryan Palmer’s graphs, you will see that since mid-July (over little more than two months), Newspoll has shown Labor 2PP results between 59 and 55%, Nielsen between 58 and 55%, Morgan between 60.5 and 54.5%, and Galaxy (a tad lower than the others) between 57 and 54%.
You can’t help noticing in the linked graph that each pollster’s results inevitably go up and down and up again from poll to poll. Given a margin of error in the vicinity of 3% for all of these polls, for several months the reported results are all entirely consistent with a constant level of support in the voting population at around 57%. I’m going to sit back and laugh myself silly when one or two of the polls in the next fortnight from Newspoll, Nielsen and Galaxy show at least 58 or 59% for Labor.
We may be about to witness a once-in-a-lifetime landslide.
I’d love Rudd/Gillard to form a Two person Cabinet ala Gough and get rid of dodgy stuff and create new laws over the break before parliament officially sits .
For those who don’t remember, here is how Gough did it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gough_Whitlam#Prime_Minister_1972-75
Adam @472
That is an excellent theory. Elegant in its simplicity. Pure science at the highest level. Apply for a grant.
Question: Will the gentlemen of the CFMEU be required to wear suits under a Rudd-led communist regime? Or will shorts and thongs suffice? These are important questions for our times.
Glen,
The 60/40 result shows Labor is in touch with the electorate.
You are right, the final election result will not be at these levels. Once the election is called and the campaign unrolls the result will probably be more 70/30 once labor announces all their policies and displays their leadership team to the elctorate in a safe union environment.
sondeo (#469) you are right – what if Rudd/Labor were to win the campaign? It’s pretty doubtful that Howard has actually ‘won’ the campaign in any of the elections where he’s been leader. Take a look at Possum Comitatus on the reality behind the myth that the polls will inevitably close during the campaign.
GG your hubris shows your side of politics does not deserve to win…
Glum,
Where’s Cossie?
A tough choice between GG’s hubris and Glen’s fatuity…
Re Adam at #472 and Derek at #486 – I am waiting for the day when the bus lane on Adelaide Ave (in Canberra) is decreed a Party lane so that comrades who are more equal than others can zoom past the banked-up traffic. Might even rejoin the Party if that occurs!
Hey I’m Hubricating myself right now!
Anyone want to play.
I’m on line right now!
But even today, Mr Howard is using abusing the footy/sport thing. Did have to acknowledge that he may possibly give a moment’s thought to the election date whilst duh! he sits in the Gods. Still thinks he will get a boost from. Haven’t heard if he intends wearing a track suit.
Try checking out the link before ABC fix the typo:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/29/2046833.htm
“Mr Howard is predicting wins for Geelong and Manly, but Mr Howard is tipping Port Adelaide and the Melbourne Storm.”
It appears we are an electorate waiting with baseball bats to hammer this mean spirited government once and for all. I hope this is repeated in the election to come to show Howard and his cronies that you do not introduce draconian master & servant laws without spelling this out in the 2004 election campaign. Johnny put yourself out of your misery & please please call the election.
LOL! You are really desperate now that you think elections come down to who deserves to win!
If I had a dollar for every time Glen used the word hubris over the past few months on this site I could fund Howard’s advertising campaign.
Gusface, none of the Senators consult or represent the Crown. Their only allegiance is to the political party they represent, and are elected democratically by the people.
Ceikey Whitey, I too am interested in an electrical bicycle. got a link please?
paul k: you *are* funding Howard’s election campaign. We all are.
Canberra Boy, have faith… soon there will be a giant white statue of Chairman Kevin on Capital Hill (or Mount Chifley), Lake Burley Griffin will renamed Lake Hawke-Keating, and Canberra itself will be renamed Whitlamabad.
Canberra boy @ 492
Party lanes for zoomers is high on priority list. You are first and have won a prize. What is the name of your streets so we can have officials check of zoomings capability.
Anyway, it’s not Port Adelaide. It’s the Power. To win!
Drinking game for Grand Final telecasts:
Workchoices ad – 1 beer
Superannuation ad – 1 bundy and coke
Citizenship ad – 1 shot of spirit (your choice)
Adam, would having a Deputy PM like lefty comrade Gillard, and as the national Treasurer, dampen your right-wing ALP spirits?
More bad news for Serfchoices.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22501606-601,00.html
Adam – Giant statue is greatly needed so compliant Caucus can meet in it’s shadow to acclaim the Great Leader’s annointed Ministry!
Derek – last time officials checked of zoomings capability in my street they went away after I said no blue jeans or American chewing gum to give…
Frank @505
That is powerful stuff. Thanks. Can’t see how Howard or Hockey can spin this.
Stop being boring / trolling. Gillard will never be treasurer or P.M., just as Brian Howe was deputy P.M. from 1983 – 1991, but being from the socialist left never had a chance of being P.M. You are just demonstrating how little you know about Australian politics.
1983 – 1995. 1991 to 1995 rather!
Heres a joke – Why is John Howard called bonsai? …. because hes a small Bush!!!
On a serious note who else thinks there could be swings against the Liberals as high as 12% ?
I think there will be double digit swings in half a dozen seats, but the average will be a lot lower. In some seats there may even be small swings to the government, but not many.
I want Howard to come out and say that he is all the way with LB Bush if he wants to invade Iran. That would be worth another 10% swing to Labor. Now wouldn’t it be embarassing if some journalist asked Howard a question along those lines? How far will he go in stick up for his mate Bush?
CB in Capital of State
The Csucus of the Greater Kevin has necessity to erect ediface of beloved leader. Kindly and with hastiness, remove barbecunes and clothing drying equipments. Scour area for infants and running dogs.
A friendly liason oficilation offiicer will hel pwith felicitations, and chewing latex. Be calm and relaxed.
chers and … goonight all.
Hey I’m Hubricating myself right now!
Anyone want to play.
I’m on line right now!
Greeensborough Growler 493
Godless Communist Pervert.
Its either early in the morn or I dont get the joke… I google it…Web Results 1 – 2 of 2 for Hubricating. (0.12 seconds)
Did you mean: Lubricating
GENERAL RESTRICTED
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat – View as HTML
hubricating. materials;. gaskets,. diaphrvm. and washes. Ex 60.01. Edgings,. knitted,. not. elastic. or. rubberised;. pyjama. Ex 60.05. girdles. Ex 60.02 …
http://www.wto.org/gatt_docs/English/SULPDF/90870068.pdf – Similar pages
Please explain?
“and Canberra itself will be renamed Whitlamabad.”
That may have been the funniest thing I’ve read on this site to date.
If anyone honestly believes that a swing in the order of 20% is possible, they are dreaming.
History shows that the results only ever fluctuate between 49-53% on a 2PP basis. So why bother with outlandish and absurd figures such as 61%?
Aussieguru01. I took it to be a play on the word ‘hubris’, and a p**s-take on Glen’s complaint that we anti-government folk here are over indulging in it.
LOL… thought so! I kinda got the jist of it!
rcandelori @ 51, with Australia’s laughably short history, why do you suggest that history is a surefire guide to the future? Of course it is worth looking at the past to see which conditions led to which results. But you must also realise that all of the polls are rarely wrong for periods of 6 months or more, and they generally get it close to right on average. Just because the results are not ones you prefer, you cannot suddenly throw away the validity of said results.
racandleori that’s not really true. There have been results over 55% TPP on the odd occasion.
Of course, in my opinion, this is not going to happen. However, the thing about history is that it’s always there to be made. I think this will be a historic election. Either a huge swing on the 2PP will occur, or the era of opinion polling will be seriously in jeopardy.
We bother because every rule has an exception and this year is the exception. This isn’t a normal election, this is an election in which history is broken and new rules made ;-D
Someone mentioned that the nuclear power station ads are not on the ALP site anymore.
I can assure them that they are being played on commercial TV regularly in Longman, Fisher, Fairfax and Wide Bay (probably more).
I am flabbergasted by this poll. though it may not be accurate (which one actually is?) it does show that Howard’s going to need a really big rabbit to pull through on this election eve.
Adam #28 requested info on nsw lib candidates. Lindsay Paterson is the lib candidate for Charlton he’s a mental health nurse 50 or 60 something. Tab inimpressively in state election for seat of charlestown.
Admittedly Charlton should be a safe bet for combet (he’s been doing the right thing by supporting other marginal campaigns like dobell and Paterson – seat not lib candidate) but the fact that they have resorted to a candidate like Paterson and still have nobody for shortland shows that they are really struggling. This would not have been the case in the old days under Howard.
On the morgan poll. The issue of the farcical heading in the right dir qn has been discussed before. Morgan may well be blowing an opportunity to restore some credibility by insisting that this reveals anything of import.
#87 — you referred to my moving average charts — the 13 term Henderson moving average uses symmetric weights to calculate the average in the middle of the series. At each end, it uses fewer data points with asymmetric weights. As a consequence the moving average at each end of a series is subject to correction as more information becomes available. If the next data point in the Morgan series were 45 per cent 2PP for the Coalition (still a commanding Labor lead), the moving average would suddenly trend up over the last three observations.
Lefty E, my take on a certain old man in a nursing home:
(Plagiarised from Christopher Hitchens re Jerry Falwell)
ive just picked myself up off the floor, the Government Gazette has an editorial that actually claims Rudd would make a good PM, here it is folks i suggest you print it and frame it for posterity.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22500409-16741,00.html
Adam & 393 (and Joe) – sorry to hark back to what is now an old discussion in this thread, but the issue of being sent a copy of a letter that was sent to a person’s partner is actually quite serious.
Joe, you had made no contact with the office, so this letter would have been totally inexplicable to you if hadn’t already been aware that your wife had written to them. If that was the case and you had contacted the office, what would they tell you? Electorate officers should never disclose details of a constituent’s contact with their office to third parties (actually, they shouldn’t even confirm that a person HAS contacted the office unless it is to assist that constituent in some way).
It’s a basic principle; constituent contact is confidential – as it needs to be. I would be very interested to hear the MP’s office’s take on why they wrote you the same letter when you hadn’t written to them yourself. Better still, play dumb and pretend you didn’t even know your partner wrote to them and watch them squirm…
Judy, while a welcome change from The Oz, one would have to say it was very much a backhanded compliment, with several hidden barbs, and a sprinkling of ‘damning with faint praise’.
I have just been admiring the maps on Psephos (thanks Adam and keep up the good work). This forum, I guess, is one of the few safe places where I can ask if anybody else has considered buying an electoral jigsaw puzzle, or having one custom made (after each redistribution or election) for the edutainment of their kids or of themselves. The latter is probably more my case, but one can never predict exactly how contagious psephology (and droll habits) can be in a household. I admit I have been trying to copy and enlarge the maps from Psephos onto my computer and planning to mount them on cardboard – probably will make two – one for a hanging picture and the other for a puzzle after I’ve cut the pieces apart. Both will be for private use only, copyright being only one of the ruling reasons for that decision.
524 ruawake. Thanks. I was worried that when they were taken off they would not be used. We haven’t seen them in Melbourne yet. I hope they will be on at the Grand Final. Will people cheer the Get Up ads at the footy?
ahhh JUST ME i realise that, but gee what a turnaround from the constant bile they usually dish up for Rudd, especially Shanahan’s daily serve and Akerman’s sewer diatrabes, tiny as the aknowledgment was, at least it stood out by it’s very difference and it certainly left me gob smacked.
Will the Get Up ads create a higher revenue stream when they run on television? I think so.
https://www.getup.org.au/campaign/ClimateCleverer&id=128
Hockey’s comments re:AWA’s have caused a huge ruckus in the Courier Mail comments to the article.There’s no doubt that Workchoices is on the nose and is one of the prime movers in the demise of this government.
PS I was also shocked at the positve Editorial for Rudd in today’s OZ,even though it betrays the usual mischief about the ALP and the unions.Don’t they realise we don’t care about the ALP and unions being connected at the hip.One is the child of the other and we already know about it.
This is interesting:
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/whitehall/story/0,,2175801,00.html
To those whom say a 60-40 can’t happen, lets say this in 2002 Victorian election the ALP scored 57.6% a record winning margin for the ALP, to show how big that swing was it was bigger than the combined swings of 1996 & 1999 and was the first swing to a Govt since 1976 and was strongest in areas that had voted Liberal in the 1990s
While we expect the polls to narrow during campaign, only problem with this is if Interest rates rise in November and with past rises we have seen a swing towards the ALP also the Govt has not outlined a vision for the future and is 11 years old with several poor policies
Workchoices
Welfare to Work
Iraq
I note Possium’s poll average is back to 57.1% about what it’s been all year.
Without workchoices Howard could use the British situation with Rudd’s wife to hurt the ALP, the only problem for Howard to attack it he basically admits there is problem with his policy.
Is it just me of that women in the Workchoices call centre ad has basically nothing on her desk, isn’t that a bit odd
Dario @ #420Trivia question for the night: what is the ‘nexus clause’?
and
GG @ # 421 Nexus Clause is the brother of Santa.
Don’t you mean the sanity clause?
Whaddya mean? there ain’t no sanity claus.
Now, would this be “arrogance”, “indecisiveness” or “uncertainty”…?
While Tony abbott a couple of days ago said we could “rest assured” that every minister in a winning Coalition government would keep the portfolios they had today (arrogance), Howard had this to say in the Courier Mail:
Mr Howard also left the door open to a post-election ministerial reshuffle, saying that while his current senior ministers were doing “an excellent job”, “that’s not to say they would all necessarily have exactly the same positions”.
So is Howard’s uncertainty and indecisiveness about jobs after the election the same as Rudd’s uncertainty and indecisiveness about jobs after the election?
And what about Howard’s waffling on about whether he’d be content to remain Member for Bennelong if the Coalition lost the election? Arrogant? Uncertain? or just indecisive?
What is good about this article is that at least the reporters present asked the question. Of course, the low key attention the editors back at the office gave it is another (very small) thing altogether.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22500138-953,00.html
Re 532,
Schriftsteller, if you contact the AEC by email, you can get a “Federal Electoral Boundaries Map” sent you to by snail mail. (It takes a couple of weeks though, it doesn’t come quick, so that means that they need to “process” the request on their side). It folds out like a map and also includes a list of Electorate marginality in ascending order. While we aren’t planning to “cut this up” in our house, it is plain on the back so only printed on one side.
Rudd, Costello and Howard were all at the GF breakfast this morning. I didn’t hear Rudd talking (missed that part) but I know they talked to Howard and Costello. Didn’t hear what they said though as I always hit the mute button when they are spouting rubbish
.
I think the election delay has already had a negative impact on Howard’s ratings. Most people don’t like elections, but will tolerate them. However, this election campaign has now stretched beyond people’s limits of tolerance.
In Nielson online poll, Howard’s approval rating was 43%, as compared with 50% in a ph poll by same company, and Rudd lead 55-37 as preferred PM.
In a Newspoll taken 20-22 July, 55% agreed that Howard was “in touch with the voters”. In the Galaxy taken last weekend 21-23 Sept, 49% agreed that he was “Out of touch and driven by self interest”, while 42% disagreed. The questions are not equivalent, but there’s clearly a big slump here. The govt’s failure to call the election may well already be making its situation worse.
Not directly on thread – but early this morning there was some discussion about Greenway and Markus. I couldn’t leave the comments about Markus alone.
I work at a school in the current electorate (which is why i have changed my pseudopsephonym) – but in a part that is now in Parramatta under the new boundaries – and I can say that Markus has remained attentive to getting commonwealth funding for equipment and involved in the school.
I am rusted on non-Liberal and I am impressed by the way she has worked as a local member.
I think we underestimate that candidates, even in urban seats, can make a difference. Of course, if the swing is on, then good work will count only at the margins – and if it helps change what would be a 7% swing to a 6% swing in your electorate, well that could save your seat.
I wouldn’t exactly call today’s editorial in The Australian an endorsement of Rudd. It is a grudging compliment for Rudd because he happened to do something that was consistent with the newspaper’s neo-conservative agenda.
Anyway, it’s not like The Australian’s opinion of Rudd or Labor, or anything for that matter, really makes any difference to anyone. They exist within their own little parallel universe. On that note, I noticed that they are still clinging to the hope that Howard will win with this line:
“As we have been at pains to stress, opinion polls are not elections and history shows that Paul Keating overcame an almost ten-point primary vote deficit in the polls one week before winning the 1993 election.”
And later:
“In 2004, The Weekend Australian called for the return of the Coalition, and three years later we think it possible Mr Howard will win a fifth term.”
I am not claiming that Rudd is guaranteed a win. Who knows, he might still lose. But trying to compare 1993 with 2007 is a major stretch. There are so many variables that are just plain inconsistent between these years that it’s a worthless comparison. But it fills them with hope, and, lord knows, they must really be needing it these days, especially after that near scrape two weeks back when the government almost imploded on itself.
Bushfire Bill, I would take all three. It’s “arroganceâ€, “indecisivenessâ€, AND “uncertaintyâ€.
By the way, if Rudd wins despite the media’s demonisation of anything that looks like Rudd or Labor, then this really will be the sweetest victory of all, not just for Labor, but for Australians generally. I live in hope that a majority of people will see through the bias and spin…
For a man at the top of the Political ladder for 30 years Howard knows nothing about AFL, last year he didn’t go to the Grand Final.
Costello is Essendon’s number 1 ticket holder and knows his footy.
I suspected back in August that Howard’s post budget poll improvement stalled and may go into reverse, now we appear to be back to March – May poll numbers, and if rates rise in November I suspect they may continue there movement toward Rudd.
Based on the narrow nature of Howard’s 2004 campaign and the ALP’s self destruction in 2004 I am starting to feel more certain in saying Howard can delay the date for as long as he likes for the horse has bolted and while the polls look most usually the fact remains the ALP have held a massive 10 point plus lead all year.
I really can’t see anything changing it except Rudd running a dog of a campaign but considering the two policies that could have hurt him have been release with no major problem (Health & I.R)
is there somewhere or somehow we can see the nsw tv health debate between julia and tony the other day?
In the Curious Snail today, Clinton Porteous http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22497574-27197,00.html
and Denis Atkins (can’t find a link) give us the benefit of superior News Limited political intuition.
Both articles are completely detached from reality and of course neither mentions the Morgan poll (in fact I can’t find even a mention of it anywhere in the dead tree version but I mightn’t have looked hard enough).
Denis has an interesting theory that the tide has turned because Rudd is being exposed to more incisive criticism by the media. Is this the new modus operandi? – write a whole lot of stories critical of Rudd and then write another story using all the other stories critical of Rudd as evidence of his troubles!!
I just heard Michael Hodgman on the ABC. Question: is he the longest-serving current politician in Australia? I can’t think of a rival. He was first elected a Tasmanian MLC in 1966.
Maybe I’m reading a different set of newspapers but I don’t feel the media is being bias in it’s covering federal politics.
I think the media is surprised by the strength of the poll numbers which appear totally out of whack with the history of Australian Politics and what adds to this is the Economy is in very good shape.
We don’t have massive scandals. we don’t have massive rallies up Bourke St, we don’t have MP’s crossing the floor, yes we have had leadership issues and clearly the Govt is on the nose but this Govt appears more gone than Keating, Cain/Kirner, Bannon, Lawrence.
#549 That article is pure drivel. You’d be forgiven for thinking it was Howard in front by 20 points after reading it. He says Rudd needs to be ‘more flexible’ and neglects to mention him doing away with 100 years of tradition by electing his own ministry. He also prides Howard’s drought relief package as though it is good policy… totally delusional.
Anti-Howard flash chant at the AFL:
http://flashchant.com/
Hey BV – what the hell’s a flash chant? Sounds good, though.
i think those sorts of things will only backfire – make people feel that the footy is being stolen or corrupted by politicians. I think the crowd’s reaction to Howard and Rudd (if he is going) will be enough.
A suggestion for the Communications Minister: promise every household at least two free replacements per year of the little spring behind the remote control mute button. Mine already gets a thorough working over whenever Custardelllo speaks, so if he ever makes it to PM and is on my TV daily, I’ll definitely be needing a new one.
Did anyone buy the Australian today? was there anything on Kingston in it?
not 100% sure, but i think a flash chant is a hastily-organised, semi-spontaneous protest chant. spread the word!
The Denis Atkins article mentioned in 549 by Alexm
is here
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,20797,22498692-27197,00.html
Bill, take my advice and ignore the Morgoth press and all its lies until after the election.
Hi Adam i understand where you are coming from i was just interested because they interviewed me and im interested to see how i am portrayed
Dario it was a great performance by Parra last week. Mate they were dead-set on top before Fuifui and Cayless went off. Media bias exists not only in politics but with their beloved Superleague teams as well.
I hope the ARL Sea Eagles stick it to the Superleague News Ltd Anywhere But Melbourne Storm. Watch the refereeing and video decisions.
The election will be called on Dec 1 I reckon. It’s all about Howard. It will make it exactly 11.75 years as PM.
Bmwofoz, we may not have rallies {the government put paid to that with their IR rules} but we DO have a pencil and paper in that little booth whenever Howard has the courage to call the election.
“The election will be called on Dec 1 I reckon. It’s all about Howard. It will make it exactly 11.75 years as PM.”
Parliament **officially expires** on 15 November. If election is not called by then, what are the available options, if any, for the Gov.Gen to get involved? Just wanting to fully understand the legalities here. I didn’t grow up with this system and it fascinates me.
Bill,
I’ve had a quick look, but did not find you or Kingston mentioned. I am about to go down the street of my lovely rural township protected by the Labor Government’s urban growth boundary and sit next to some Labor Government-provided infrastructure and have a coffee while I read The Australian in more detail. I will let you know if I find anything later.
bmwofoz@538: The 2002 Victorian election was pretty extraordinary, though. When the liberal’s shadow treasurer forgets to enrol to vote, you know your campaign is off to a bad start. Wikipedia actually has the ALP TPP at 58.26%, btw.
(Having said that, I spent election night listening to ABC radio and giggling like a loon as liberal after liberal lost their seat.)
I can’t quickly find the TPP numbers from the Victorian 1992 election (where Kennett knocked off Kirner), but the ALP suffered an 8 point swing against them on primary vote in that election. The information out there on older elections is very patchy – the VEC site only goes back to 1999.
In Queensland in 1974, the Nat/Lib TPP was 61.5%.
So there have been monster results in living memory.
An open letter to the ‘Sun King’ a.k.a. Rupert Murdoch.
I wont deliberate with too many words the message I wish to convey but as you use your giant media machine to give favorable comment to Howard & Co just remember what us real patriots think. To quote Bob Dylan .. ‘The times they are a changing’ & ” You don’t need a weather man to know which way the wind blows’….. put that in your pipe & smoke it!
A Sky News report has Costello saying that the election would be “the last day of November” at the Grand Final breakfast this morning.
http://www2.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=192196
Assuming he wasn’t just drunk, that could mean 24/11 or 1/1. Either way, we’ve got weeks more of the status quo before Howard has to call it.
If this Morgan poll had shown a hefty swing back to the coalition which papers would have run with it and in what section of the paper would we have seen it? I’m guessing the GG front page for a start.
I forked out $2.20 for the OZ today, but only because I recently had a letter published in its magazine and am in the running for a set of BBC comedy DVDs. Couldn’t bring myself to read much of the actual paper, though. Same old clap-trap. Usual suspects. Must contain anger levels. Did however notice a puff piece by Caroline Overington – who probably knows better – on John Howard. Of course, one fully expects Kevin Rudd to be done over in the same place next week given the OZ’s strict rules on equal space.
Awesome!!!! Morgan reckons climate change and Al Gores endorsement of Labor’s policy had a huge influence on the their last polls huge swing to Labor. Howard is so roggered. Everyone knows he’s still a climate change skeptic at heart!!!! Even wet Liberals would be voting for Rudd based on that.
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4217/
Well the crunch is coming for all this Murdoch-Liberal self-delusion. If the coming Newspoll has Labor on 56 or better, their goose will be cooked and they will all know it.
563 Julie, the election MUST be called within ten days of Parliament expiring, ie, by the 25 Nov. Presumably if it’s not called by then, the Gov-Gen would call it himself.
I just sent this to News.Com
Anybody else think this explains the media bias, Conflict of interest?
News com must be asleep on the job, that would be a good explanation, but unfortunately the truth is the media organisation is extremely bias in its political reporting in favour of John Howard, it must be because of the millions of dollars from the advertising gravy train coming from this government.
Because if labour gets into power your revenue and other media organisations revenue from advertising will go down, isn’t this a conflict of interest? your interest over the interests of the general public
To prove the bias newspoll shows 1% swing to Howard and its “Howard claws his way back“, the latest Morgan poll 28/9/07 is released showing a swing to labour of 4% 63.5% Labour to 39.5% LNP 2PP and nothing not even reported in one media organisation?
Please why don’t we have a royal commission into the bias of the media, it will prove it is due to the revenue flowing from the federal government, which will stop if the Liberals lose government.
Fester @ #570: “Even wet Liberals would be voting for Rudd based on that.”
Fits in with my theory as pontificated at #222, #224 and #275.
Anything much above 55% for Labor means the “wets” (Howard-Haters/Lib-Lovers) and sometimes the Nervous Nellies (Howard-Lovers/Lib-Indifferent) come together and push up the vote for a week.
The Wets because Howard made a comeback and they don’t like that.
The Nervous-Nellies because Howard made a comeback and they DO like that.
The leadership almost-spill-that-wasn’t-quite had reasons for both of groups to park with Rudd for a week.
When they drift back to their safety zone, it’s Ol’ ‘55 all over again. However, if Howard keeps on making clangers like today’s “uncertainty” over his own front bench and his prospects for remaining as member for Bennelong, then some of the NN’s and the Wets might stick.
A 55% in the actual election is a definite possibility in my opinion. Howardis trying to keep too many (conflicting) balls in the air at the one time. Confuses the punters.
Last post should have read (6th paragraph): “The Nervous-Nellies because Costello made a comeback and they DON’T like that.”
Apologies.
labor has’nt let go of the nuclear energy theme, this is about their new web site on it.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22502698-5001028,00.html
thanks chris i am house bound today
Re 542,
Thanks Julie for the info about ordering the map.
Anthony Baxter at 565. Actually, the Lib. shadow treasurer who forgot to enrol (can’t remember his name) was on local ABC conversation hour here in Vic. yesterday, according to himself indoors, and was absolutely bagging the Fed. Libs., saying Menzies would be revolving in his grave, their values had absolutely nothing to do with proper liberal values, and so on. Whoa, maybe this has something to do with what Possum was pointing at yesterday about Victoria. This is interesting as the local ABC is very widely respected, critical role in disaster times and has a very broad coverage, certainly across the top of Tasmania and up to about half way through N.S.W. by direct transmission. There’s also been a fair amount of coverage of the Fed. gov’t. ripping off Victoria more than the other States in terms of Fed. funding across a whole swag of areas in the Fairfax press. Wonder if there will be a flash chant at the footy?
Garry Morgan’s reasons for the shift in poll numbers always borders on the ridiculous:
Garry Morgan says:
“Support for Kevin Rudd and the ALP was given a boost last weekend because my next door neighbour fed his dog half an hour earlier than usual. In addition, the Labor Party was given a ringing endorsement by the old girl across the road the day after the poll was taken.â€
Why doest Mr Morgan just come right out and say that John Howard is kaput because:
1. People have had enough of him and his rotten, corrupt government.
2. WorkChoices is about as popular as a ballet concert in the back bar of the Palm & Pawn Hotel, North Wagga.
Snapper Organs (love that)
Was it Robert Dean? Could be wrong.
Yes, me too interested in flash chant at footballing, but alergic to sport -they do shout a lot – and will be on Radio National. No doubt someone here will give details if it happens. Hint hint.
I may be wrong but I think in 1992 Kennett won 55-45.
Victoria is naughty for confusing Possum but I suspect the reason for this is the Liberal Party have such strong margins but if the polls are right all Liberal seats under 10% are in play expect Higgins and Dunkley.
I also think with Victoria traditionally hasn’t swung by the margins that a Queensland or NSW have and with the ALP already holding 20 seats.
Derek Corbett, Quite right, it was Robert Dean. Only way to cope with the Grand Final, for members of the Feetball Indifference Society, is to stick on the telly, turn off the sound, and turn on Roy and H.G. for some funny commentary. Will flick the sound back on at half time, however, for the GetUp ad. and let you know if there’s any flash chanting happening.
Victorian voters – unlike their NSW and Queensland counterparts – would appear to have an attention span of more than five nanoseconds, but for them to wilfully confuse Possum is unforgiveable. What about the abacus, I hear you cry!
I wonder why Morgan’s poll doesn’t get widely covered in the public/internet.
As for other polls, they pop-up everywhere (in the internet) minutes after published.
Re rcandelori at #518, who said
Call the election please rebutted this to some degree at #522, but it’s worth pointing out that Peter Brent’s list of 2pp winning margins since 1949 shows that there have been 7 results with >53%, and two with >55% – the highest being Holt in 1966 with 56.9%.
Peter also uses Adam Carr’s pre-1949 estimates of 2pp in a table here which shows that in 1931 Lyons got 60.9% and in 1943 Chifley got 59.1%. Finally, if you scroll down to Peter’s 23 Sept post Sol’s electoral history here he points to large swings in the past:over 7% to Labor in 1929, 15% to the UAP (Lyons) in 1931, and about 9% to Labor (Chifley) in 1943.
So, given a Labor 2pp at the last election of 47.3%, you’d have to say that a result of 57% this time, which is what I think the polls are currently showing, or even 60%, which I agree is unlikely, would not be unprecedented for either the size of the vote or the swing.
I think I said upthread last night that we may be facing a once-in-a-lifetime result.
Bill (579),
I have returned from my trip past the Labor Government-provided infrastructure in the Shire of Nillumbik and have to report that I could not find any references to you or Kingston in The Australian (which fits with the fact that, even though I have sent in 10 letters in the past 12 days correcting their misleading record, I haven’t found my name in it either). There could be a reference in one of the supplements or the interview may be for a later story.
Why do people keep making comparisons between 1993 and 2007 given I don’t see the ALP bringing in a policy like GST in 2007 like the Libs tried to in 1993. That is why they lost the election then, plain and simple – they couldn’t sell it then and barely got away with it in 1998 (lost the 2PP but won the marginals)!
This time round WorkChoices has been the governments grenade – they didn’t have the balls to disclose it at the 2004 election campaign and it has come round to bit them on the proverbial in 2007.
The longer the ad campaign goes on and one Oct 9 has come and gone this government will be in bigger trouble (if thats possible with current polling). When was the last time a government exceeded it 3 year term?
Noocat @ 546: What about comparing 2007 with 1996? Looks a lot more similar than 1993 to me…
When I added my bit a few days ago it was only $27k now $229k.
Wish I had an income stream like that.
It seems the News Ltd misinformtion worked. The ABC spoke to the British union on the morning the story broke here and said they had no problem with Reins or her company. The whole story was invention.
Thank you Snapper Organs
Yes, Robert Dean was interviewed by Jon Faine on ABC 704. Slagged the present-day libs. Also, the same Faine earlier this year, or last?, apparently devoted his whole programme to talk-back on John Howard. The line from Faine that sticks went something like: “You can’t believe a word this government says …”
(I’m in Sydney working and when it happened, my wife rang from Victoria: “Thank God, they are finally talking about Howard’s lies …” She was quite excited.)
RE: Feetballing.
I have a television. At approximately what time does “half time” occur? Considering turning it on.
I saw the ad earlier (I’m in Sydney). Utterly wasted, hardly anybody watches the pre-pre-pre-game stuff up here. They’d have been better off saving it and investing in the RL game tomorrow, guaranteed to reach 90% of rural NSW and Queensland.
Speaking of which, the pre-game “entertainment” has just started. I predict that it will be utterly craptacular, same as every other year. I’ll watch only to see if Ratty makes an appearance, and if does, whether he’s on the receiving end of the worlds largest raspberry.
(On that off-topic, a question: WTF is “Septopia”? Is it the ideal American or the ideal infection? Whoever came up with that has shit for brains, perhaps they’re in charge of the Liberal Party re-election strategy).
News Lts run a cheap smear campaign against Rudd then come and call it ‘incisive critcism’. I call it a programmed attempt to bring down Rudd for the purpose of helping Howard’s election. An abuse of the media by the media for partisan purposes.
Pointless bangin’ on about “Deluded” Dennis Atkins here…
Email him and let him know what you think:
atkinsd@qnp.newsltd.com.au
I did, and it felt good!
I live in West End, Brisbane – my State member is Anna Bligh and federally is Kevin Rudd… And this morning I saw the Liberals doing laps of the neighbourhood with a truck and a giant billboard. The slogan:
“Save Democracy…
Dump Labor”
Seriously – Who is advising these guys?
Are they just trying to lull us into a false sense of security?
Fagin re Spurious Wail
Just read the Atkins thingy. Is he on work experience? Is that the general standard up there?
Mark @598
That is mind-boggling! The libs seem fond of clogging the streets with this type of advertising. Seem to recall it from past campaigns and I think it links to a particular company that provides it for nix.
But it’s the slogan itself that had me in fits on the floor! I hereby nominate it for Pig-Brain Slogan of the 2007 Election Campaign gong medal award jobbie. This is bigger than the Logies.
It’s half time at the AFL Grand Final and not one federal government advertisement. But I have seen the Get Up ad. Seems like they have realised that the ads are loosing them support. Geelongs 50 points up.
Another rusted-on Howard supporter told me he was voting Rudd this time around – complained that Howard was forcing his personal ideology onto us.
what is Gary Morgan’s relationship to Roy Morgan?
I saw quite a few Serfchoices ads running in the pre-game on Ch 10 in Sydney.
It’s pointless watching the game – no contest. Port shouldn’t even have bothered turning up and are playing as though they were already on their post season trip – perhaps they are.
What an anti-climax.
Thank goodness we have something to look forward to tomorrow night: Melbourne vs. Manly-Warringah. Mexico vs The Silvertails Now that’ll be a football game.
James J,
Gary is Roy’s son.
I saw an army reserves ad in the 2nd ad break during half time.
#578 judy. Excellent, but where is the site?
Re 574,
Lord D Says:
“563 Julie, the election MUST be called within ten days of Parliament expiring, ie, by the 25 Nov. Presumably if it’s not called by then, the Gov-Gen would call it himself.”
Thanks much Lord D
:):) … now combined with Costello’s loose lips this morning at the GF breakfast, I didn’t hear it * I had him muted, it seems plain to me that we are looking at the last Saturday in November which is the 24th. When it will be called is anyones guess, but put your money down on the last Saturday in November before the bookies close the betting on it.
i dont know Chris that link is all ive found so far, i’m sure we’ll find out shortly, that link was in breaking news.
Re 594,
Derek Corbett Says:
“I have a television. At approximately what time does “half time†occur? Considering turning it on.”
3rd quarter starting as I hit enter on this message …..
After many, many years in the wilderness the Cat’s are on fire, with a 52 point lead at Grand Final half time, and their opponents just can’t even start to get it together.
Reminds of something.
Reminds me of something.
Doh.
Looks like Labor’s radio ads scared the government enough to pull the ad blitz.
Just Me @ 610,
“After many, many years in the wilderness the Cat’s are on fire, with a 52 point lead at Grand Final half time, and their opponents just can’t even start to get it together.
Reminds of something.”
Yeah, I can see that
…. but Howard has tipped Geelong so I will be pulling for Melbourne tomorrow. I am a Victorian although I don’t follow the NRL at all. All good Victorians, even if you don’t follow the NRL, must be behind Melbourne. Also, Rudd has tipped Melbourne and I want them to come out of the weekend 50/50.
Geelong caught with 19 men on the field?
Just joking. That would be the only way they could let their supporters now.
I sent Denis Atkins an email today suggesting unfair biased reporting against Rudd and received what I consider a fair response.
Hi Gary
During the last nine months I’ve written at least two dozen pieces on Kevin Rudd that could be termed positive. I don’t access to the Courier Mail library at home but if you like I could get a few out on Monday and emailo them to you. I have admired Kevin’s tactical, stragetic, policy and political skills and written about them at length. I think if you go back and read what I wrote this morning again you’ll see it was discussing and reporting on what government members and their advisers believe is a set of reasons for why they should have another week of Parliament. I didn’t endorse or agree with what they say. It’s true I’ve written a couple of pieces critical about Kevin – for instance one after his sloppy answers on tax. But I can’t see the basis for your criticism. For instance, just a week ago I wrote about the same week of Parliament – with my assessment, not quoting government figures on what they think – and concluded that while many people saw the week as bad for Labor I thought they won the battle where it counts. Again, on Monday I could forward you a copy of that piece. Anyway, whatever you choose to see, it is going to be an interesting contest. At the moment, I don’t think you’ll be at all disappointed with the outcome.
Thanks for your interest
regards
Dennis
Maybe a record thrashing coming up.
Well, there was a WorkChoices advertisement during half-time on Ch. 10. These ads haven’t been pulled, but perhaps they were reduced a little?
Even when I went to have a leak in the toilet at my local shopping centre, yet another government ad was above the urinal. I mean, you just can’t escape the fact that this government is pissing taxpayers money up the wall for nothing other than their own political agenda. It’s rotten, but typical Howard, stuff.
what an embarrassment with Port Power, i must admit i wanted Geelong to win but not like that, though im a crows fanatic i really dont mind the Power, it’s their big mouth coach i cant stand, his chest beating gets a bit much, i knew and respected his dad Fos and he would have shuddered at Mark’s brashness.
Gary i think your right re the ads, they were certainly booked hmmm i wonder if Howards getting the message– i doubt it though.
can anyone tell me why whenever i submit a comment i end up back on the top of page one and i have to go over to the latest page and scroll all the way down again?
“can anyone tell me why whenever i submit a comment i end up back on the top of page one..” Judy, it happens to me too. It’s a bit of a pest actually but I put up with it because this is a great site. I don’t know if anything can be done about it.
I think Geelong supporters will be the only ones to watch this Grand Final again. As a spectacle it’s a failure. Pity.
I hope Rudd is a better Prime Minister than Football Tipster LOL
Gary Bruce #615
I also sent Dennis Atkins an email detailing my concerns regarding unfair and biased reporting against Rudd; I had a similar and equally fair response:
Hi David
Thanks for your note. I think you should reread what I wrote today. I was reporting what people in the government are thinking about their electroal strategies. I did not say I agreed with them. And the polling mentioned at the end is what they say Textor is saying. I’ve seen nothing to suggest he’s right but it’s worth recording what the Liberals are thinking. And if you read The Courier Mail regularly you would have seen the piece I wrote during the week talking about the polling analysis of Possums Pollytics and Oz Politics – a column in which I took issue with Sol Lebovic’s assertion that the Labor vote must be soft. What I suggested was if one side’s vote can be soft, so can the other and imagine if it is the Coalition’s vote that is soft. But there was nothing I wrote today that said I agreed with what these Liberal politicians and strategists are saying. I was explaing why they think it would benefit them if they had another week of Parliament. Every bit of scientific and anecdotal evidence at the moment says that, and probably anything else, won’t help. It’s still going to be an interesting contest because Howard will not stop trying.
Regards
Dennis
It sure beat the sarcastic and bitter response to an email that I sent to Chris Mitchell of The Australian.
Pursuant to my thoughts in #607 : since Howard has always previously called 33 day elections, the Libs don’t have as much money this goround as Labor do, from #574 election has to be called NLT 25 November, I predict election 24th and called Monday 22 October. Parliament will sit one week.
You heard it here first ;-D
He still has the other half of the weekend to go yet
…. he won’t get the double but he might get half of it 
.
I think Malcolm’s got a real battle on his hands in Wentworth, even though the real swing required to unseat him is at least 4.5%, if the King supporters have really all come back to the Libs.
If the Greens get 10% of the primary vote, which some Labor people believe they will, Mal is gone, as this time their prefs won’t exhaust.
The Kings Cross/Darlinghurst area ( added after redistribution) votes 60% + Labor and Mighty Mal has p…d the gays off by not delivering on his same-sex marriage promise. ( see the booth maps from Crikey – 63% Labor in Kings Cross).
The Gay Laborites from these areas might be ‘fired up’ as a result, so provided that energy goes into real campaigning and fund-raising on the ground, Turnbull will be shaken.
If the Aust-wide swing is repeated in Wentworth, of course he’s gone. It will be a ‘revolution’, which I never thought I’d ever see in my lifetime. But read on….as there are real negatives for Labor….
Newhouse could actually be beaten as much by the ‘drag’ from Waverley Council. He’ll be reminded he was recently Mayor and things haven’t been going swimmingly.
ALP lost a recent by-election for the Council, which they should have won, as they had a good Jewish mother of young child as a candidate. The Libs had a Russian stooge candidate, whose placards even appeared in Russian, produced by the same printers as the Libs!
The Russian Jewish vote should go to Newhouse, but even George isn’t sure in his own heart and won’t believe it till it happens I reckon. 1/8th of the electorate is Jewish in Wentworth, according to Anthony Green. I don’t think George will get too excited. George isn’t a bad fellow, who has in the past displayed admirable independence from the NSW Right heavies in the East.
The betting overall will be the best guide – a close Rudd victory or a ‘hung’ parliament on the betting so far.
If Labor can’t get legislation through the Senate, that would give Rudd a double-dissolution trigger, so he either gets IR amendments through, or maybe he tries ‘Crash Through or Crash’.
Trouble for Rudd will be looming US recession and Iran ‘war’, helping the Rodent’s ’smear and fear’ campaign bite hard. These issues could combine to drive the ’soft-Labor’, small-l liberal voters ( independent contractor/consultant class) back to the Libs. There’s more of this class than unionists, which to some ALP types is a frightening prospect!
The Rodent might rue the day he tried to deliver the knockout punch to the Unions though, as he lurched to the ultra-Right – he only hit them a glancing blow – a bit like picking up a sleepy koala and having it pee on you – ask former Tourisim Minister John Brown what this felt like!
And kiddies, what issue did Stanley Melbourne Bruce lose his seat on?
Answer: IR, formerly known as ‘arbitration’.
How sweet it will be – much better than Keating’s last win in 1993, which only paved the way for the Rodent’s Supremacy in 1996.
Tell Tony not to repeat his bovver-boy performances with Julia – no one likes it Tony. Plenty of other deserving characters to target – he looks for all the world like one of those feral Ferinnghi characters from Star Trek Next Gen, with those ears!
And Julia’s hairdo is much better – finally the boyfriend Mr Mathieson did his job! Or did she go to another hairdresser? Grounds for ‘divorce’ I would say, if they were married.
I’ll say it again, if you missed my last post – the under 25’s just love Julia! Would just love to do in-depth focus groups with them to prove it, but my ‘groovy’ under-25 ’spy’ swears they love her!!!
And if you think this is trivial – on what ‘rational’ basis do you think most people vote? It’s all personalities, especially Rudd’s – and the Possum’s analysis proves it. The Possum for PM I say!
“It sure beat the sarcastic and bitter response to an email that I sent to Chris Mitchell of The Australian.”
And the dismissive, arrogant response that I got from the managing editor (forgotten his name now) a few days ago.
Turn it off, I did
…….. and then turn it back on when the cricket starts on Fox Sports at 6:30 
:) … nothing like Gilchrist slapping a few 6’s around to cheer me up {OR a Labor election win} 
[my team lost last week so I don't care who wins the AFL GF]
Well it’s three quarter time. Just one Federal Government ad. WOW. They must have got the message. There has been plenty if Victorian Government ads.
Have now just completed time-consuming research on football. Details of this event reveasl that a Peter Costello, a participant in your democratic proceedurals, mostly holds big ticket for clubbings called Geenelong. The opposing teams, maybe have better betting because not tainted with convicts, or suspicious persons.
Lord Melbourne, in one of his sober memos, said it was the duty of all Victorians to be Victorians. To this day, no one could understand what he meant. Until today.
If it was me I would have pissed on the ad, but that would be difficult for me……
Who did Rudd tip to win the NRL?
Manly
“Who did Rudd tip to win the NRL?”
Melbourne – because they have more Qld players.
Howard tipped Geelong and Manly, Rudd Melbourne and Port.
Here’s hoping its the second worst drubbing of 2007!
Greens make Liberal-Burma oil link
A day after Prime Minister John Howard said Australia did not have trade links with Burma, Greens Senator Kerry Nettle says a Liberal Party-linked business, Twinza Oil, has signed a joint oil and gas venture with Burma.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/29/2046940.htm
One major issue that the Govt is going to embarassed and beaten on.
Bush ‘isolated’ after climate change talks
Some of the world’s biggest greenhouse polluters have taken aim at US President George W Bush, calling him “isolated” and questioning his leadership on the problem of global warming.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/29/2046935.htm
Full time, only one Federal Government ad. Well done Geelong. Record winning margin. 125 points. The Rodent has been snookered.
ive been googling to find the new labor nuclear reactor site with no luck, just a lot of newspaper reports about it, heres another Howard/Bush plan gone down the gurgler, it’s to be expected with their track record of climate change scepticism,
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22503682-5005962,00.html
Port Power got the worst drubbing ever in a grand final, i’m waiting to see if the port players stay on the ground for the presentation, they didnt when the crows beat them earlier this year.
Who is Twinza Oil?
http://www.smh.com.au/text/articles/2007/09/28/1190486566962.html
judy
It is not a “new” site it is:
http://www.kevin07.com.au/fresh-ideas/climate-change-water/nuclear-power.html
Where was John Howard??? I was looking foward to him getting a big BOOO!! at the presentation
Let’s hope the Federal Liberal Party perform as woefully as Port Adelaide.
If Howard presented the cup the crowd would have yelled “sexually abscond Howard”.
one of those super ads on in adelaide now
Sitting behind Eddie MacGuire. He was shown briefly, I think during the 2nd quarter.
Ruawake, thanks for the link, i couldnt even find that, hmmm not happy John, one isnt very far from Salisbury.
I only watched the last quarter and presentation but was impressed with the way the Geelong players and coach behaved after the game. I’m not a Geelong supporter (we nearly beat them last week) but congratulations to them. This win will do the city the world of good.
Gary Bruce @ 615
Yep, that’s a fair response. I withdraw my earlier crass comment.
Serfchoices ad just on now in Perth. So I’m assuming that they are showing said ads pre and post match.
Brilliant site. Go Kevin in 07
Believe me if Howard’s minders thought he was popular and would have received a warm welcome at the Grand Final he would have been front and centre handing out something. They know he is as popular as a you know what in a swimming pool.
Now if Collingwood can only get Judd…
i recieved a phone call from a senior Newsltd crime journo pal and i’m stunned, he’s going to vote Rudd this time round, he comes from a rusted on coalition base, if he’s going to vote Rudd then theres hope of a few more turning, we filmed a segment for an Australian crime show a couple of weeks ago and i tried my dammedness to turn the Sydney cameramen to Rudd lol, ive got a bet going with one of them, unfortunately they’re Howards young aspirationalists,they have to come back again to film a bit more so i’ll have another try.
Kina @ 635
That’s dynamite, if true. “Liberal-linked business …?”
Their radio spots were running a mile a minute here in Sydney. I was trying to studiously ignore the GF for most of the afternoon so had my radio on with headphones. 95.3FM. They are doing a countdown this long weekend and every commercial break they had at least one govt. ad. Should have counted them seeing as how the radio station were doing a countdown …..
Coming from Sidderney, plus not being all that interested in footy of any type, I can’t really figure out the “rules” part of Aussie Rules (are there any?) so the AFL final has not a lot of attraction for yours truly. In fact I went and had a nice Saturday afternoon nap.
It seems the anticipated govt. ad blitz was downsized and Howard hardly made an appearance, certainly not on the presentation dias? Is this right?
Given Howard’s absence, why did taxpayers have to pay $100,000 (or whatever it costs) to send him down there complete with private jet, liveried chauffeurs, flashy flunkies, minders and other assorted hangers-on just to be a member of the crowd?
I did see the GetUp ad before I had my nap. It seemed overwhelmed beside another ad for Carlton beer featuring 10,000 Vangelis lookalikes walking across a paddock.
judy
When I worked for Apocalypse all the camera crews were raging lefties.
How times change.
Judy,
A News Limited crime journo. NL is guilty of crimes against journalism, so does this make him an editor or a a sub?
Too much info, methinks.
I see Uncle Joe is trying to put some positive spin on the 25000 AWA’s that were rejected.
The thing is, these people have been waiting close to 6 months to find out the AWA they were on was bad and that their employer didn’t provide the details.
The government is also the cause of this, they gave use WorkChoices, but they but after announcing a ‘Fairness Test’ that came in to effect 4 days after the announcement, but the legislation wasn’t even written and wasn’t even presented to parliament for months later, they have to take the blame for this. How do businesses feeling given the ‘pro-business’ government is blaming businesses, and not the government, for the stuff up?
Sorry, I didn’t get back to you Derek Corbett and managed to miss the GetUp ad myself! Oh well, now the wait for Newspoll!
Bushfire, the government ads were very few and far between during the Grand Final and Howard stayed well away from the spotlight all day.
The Govt. is the bestest, most splediferous, ever. All the ministers are the worlds most terrific, they are the best friend anyone ever had on any subject.
They cured the sick, healed the unemployed, made everyone relaxed and comfortable.
If you don’t believe me, just ask them.
re. Nuclear – I think JH has already signed us up as a dump site with the recent agreement in Vienna (?). We will only find out about it when the ships carrying the waste turn up at the docks.
re. The Senate – This coming election is only half the story. I believe the OTL parties to gain a majority; so even if there is a need for Green support in the coming Parliament I expect the flow away from The Libs to continue in 2010/11 leading to a Labor majority from 2011 onwards. I just hope Rudd can handle a majority far better then JH.
OTL = Other Than Liberal/Nats
Ruawake
When I worked for newspapers all the reporters – and editors – were raging leftie drunks, but basically honest.
Yes, how times change.
Ruawake this lot are GMP productions, the show will be shown on foxtel before free to air, though they’re good enough to send us a DVD of the show when it’s ready, Derek, this journo ive known since he was a cub reporter and actually he’s one of the rare ones i trust completely, he always rings and alerts me when he’s printing something he thinks i should be warned about.
the ch7 news just led with a blurb about the government ad overkill especially this weekend, it’s about time!
Re. Booleanbach @ #660… of course we’re going into the dump business. We’re going into the enrichment business as well. Probably sooner rather than later.
Waste dumping and enrichment are necessary ancilliary industries. You can’t generate much electricity from nuclear energy without them being in place already.
So, we set up these two industries, in phoney anticipation that in 25 years time we might be able to sort out where the actual power stations will be sited. Since when has Howard thought more than 25 days in advance?
Naturall, once dumps and enrichment are set up, with full investment etc., they’ll be looking for work. They won’t want to wait 25 years to start earning. Voila! We enrich for other countries. We take back their waste. Because the enriched uranium will be leased, it’ll be formally “our” waste, so no “foreign waste” will be dumped.
Nuclear power stations? We most likely won’t generate enough to power a single light bulb.
While arguing against the siting etc. of power stations is an easy one to indulge in, we’re missing the whole point of Howard’s strategy: to set up ancilliary nuclear industries for his cronies (round up the usual suspects) while everybody else indulges in a stalking horse argument about nuclear power plants.
As you say, the deal’s probably already been done. We’ll find out about it after the election.
These guys are really, really desperate to hold on to power. They will literally do practically anything to achieve that aim. If the truth ever comes out about what they have done to our country for the benfit of their mates in industry they’ll never be forgiven.
Fasten your seat belts.
Anyone got contacts in TV stations? Were some Govt. Ads pulled today?
I will be able to find out next tuesday.
That’s all right Snappers. I was just interested in the political side to this feetball game and apparently Howard tried to act like one of the boys. Possibly the best advice he’s received for yonks. That is, hide.
(Is William asleep? I’m surprised we haven’t all been clunked by now for all this idle chatter.)
looks like labor in the U.K. is on a roll as well.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22504720-5005962,00.html
Perth People, Costello’s “Election Date Slip” coming up shortly on Ten News.
#663. BB, you should write this stuff up as an article for Road to Surfdom, or some other blog. People should be aware of this… I think its just disgusting.
I also suspect that Howard is desperate to save his government in order to ensure that many other secrets don’t come out, whether it is to do with Iraq, AWB, WorkChoices, David Hicks, and who knows what else. Labor could potentially have a field day if they win this election and gain access to government files.
With 3 years to go why would Brown go now?
Check out the new program, Australian “Idle”, starring the usial subjects.
I like the Peter Costello one.
http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2007/10/071000_election/election.html#joe
Those government files will be situated very close to the shredders as we speak.
Judy
Yep. Understood. Trust and ethics.
Costello is really one of the most indiscreet politicians on the Australian scene at the moment. To announce the election date at a bloody football breakfast, in full “smirk” mode, is downright deplorable. To slip up, as he did in a parliamentary debate, is equally deplorable. The man is a loose cannon. And he expects the Prime ministership to be handed to him on a plate? One fo the few things Howard has done right is to have saved us from at least that fate. On this one I totally agree with His Rodentship.
If neither of the dates was real, or if he was jesting, this only highlights the arrogance of a government that will tie up the country, waiting for an election, while the court jesters make their amusing remarks to the “in” crowd at footy mornings and in madcap urgency debates. And they can’t both be right, as parliamentary sittings intervene between the two. Costello is either toying with us or totally out of control. These bastards have the hide to claim that Labor is leading Australia into uncertainty? Gimme a break!
Howard is using the pre-pre-election period to gift to the cronies and urgers who surround him the glittering prizes they have long sought. They thought he’d be re-elected so no problemo.
Now that it’s looking like he’ll lose – and lose badly – there is an unseemly rush to tie up loose ends. This is the real reason the election is being dragged out: so much pork and so many cronies to reward… and so little time.
By rights, the government should be in caretaker mode by now, morally if not actually. Yet they claim it is business as usual. By “business” I mean the signing of nuclear deals that we will not be told about. I mean the signing of broadband deals of which we know only the vaguest details.
And then there are the deals we don’t know about, which will only be announced if they win. Even if they lose, these deals are designed to bind a Labor government as well. Labor will be stitched up with iron clad conteracts, so that it’ll cost millions, if not billions to get out of them. All this while the government should, by all rights, be well into caretaker mode.
Plus of course the deals that stare us in the face – like the hundreds of millions of public money poured into advertising agencies, TV and radio stations in the past year, in exchange for freebies or discounts directly for the Liberal Party once the election is called. The invoices will be sent out at full price, for public consumption, but they’re fakes. They’re never intended to be paid out, but that will happen on the Q.T. Whoever is doing the government ads now will be doing the Liberal ads for the election: a seamless segue from pork to corruption. It’s as plain as the nose on your face.
In a way it doesn’t matter so much if the Libs win or lose. Their mates will be looked after, and in turn they themselves will also be looked after. The bills and the payments, the law suits and the appeals, will go on for years to come.
I’ve just checked the Morgan website and noted that they give preference flows of the minor parties in 2 ways.
“As of 2004 pattern” which results in the 2PP as per thread title.
And separately “Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote” which results in an extra .5% for the ALP making the result ALP 61 to Coalition 39.
Heres a wild prediction but the seat of Parkes will be the coalitions most marginal seat after the next election. Refer to http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/
The power of positive thinking!
Any one else got a take on that?
Point of clarification on the ads… so many here and elsewhere have asked “Why do they persist with the WCs ads, and the superannuation ads etc. if they’re counterproductive?”.
To this I reply with another questio: “Counterproductive for who?” For the people who produce them, who book the air time, who run the ads? Not all all counterproductive for them. They’re minting it.
It doesn’t matter whether the ads work or not. If they work, that’s a bonus. If they don’t the mates are still rewarded. And the favours will be returned in full, one way or another.
So, there’s your answer.
i think Costello with Howards ok is playing games with the dates he’s coming out with, surely even he isnt that stupid— weeelll this is Costello we’re talking about, i think Howard wants to keep everyone guessing, especially the labor party, he wants their nerves to be over stretched to perhaps push them into making boo boos.
Noocat @668
“Labor could potentially have a field day if they win this election and gain access to government files.”
Er, no. The libs and their lackeys will be busily shredding, cleaning computer hard drives, cleaning out cupboards, looking under desks … after 11 or so years, there’s a lot of crap lying around. They will clear it.
After the election of the first Bracks Government in Victoria, I went to a certain electorate office. It had been trashed by the libs. An absolute filthy mess. With a turd on the carpet. These offices are funded by the taxpayer. Convention is: leave them as you found them. Not the libs.
I reckon it would be a good exercise to monitor those big commercial shredder trucks hanging around liberal encampments rather than staking out the Governor-General.
No, Noocat, with respect. They will sack and burn.
Just for those commenting on Howard’s lack of prominence at the Grand Final – think nothing of it. The Prime Minister -never- has a role on Grand Final day except for a couple of functions, such as the North Melbourne Breakfast. Certainly, he – or, to my knowledge, any other PM – has never played a part in the presentations.
Having witnessed Costello “giving away” the election date – this is the biggest non-issue at all.
He is joking with Dave Hughes on the theme of “last day in September” and refers to “last day in November”.
No issue – no arrogance – little humour.
When, technically and pedantically, does an electorate office change from ‘belonging’ to one incumbent to the next?
Anyone know?
Charlie @ 683 – Howard may have a role at the thugby league game – saw vision on the news tonight of Manly’s last win and there was the rodent on stage with the winners.
I think he did the same last year – different game RL – different traditions.
Re 673,
Gary Bruce Says:
September 29th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
“With 3 years to go why would Brown go now?”
Taking advantage of his lead in the polls and their (conservatives) disarray [are the conservatives reading each others play book within the commonwealth? lol].
Generally, when you take over from someone else early on in the piece, as long as the polls are favorable, they will usually do that so that they can have the mandate in their own right. Seeing as how QLD just had elections a bit over a year ago, it is concievably possible we could see Bligh doing the same within the next 12 months herself IF the polls are favorable. I wasn’t living in NSW when Carr left and Iemma took over so I don’t know what the polls were at that time but I do know that they were within 12 to 15 months of an election anyways at that point. Pending polls in VIC over the next 12 months, you might see similar there as well.
Re 683,
“Certainly, he – or, to my knowledge, any other PM – has never played a part in the presentations.”
I, at least, assumed he *might* this year as he presented the winners medallions at last years A-League GF at the Telstra Dome. You are correct, though, I have never seen him do it before in AFL GF’s. That was why I was so surprised to see him up on the dias with the Melbourne Victory players last year.
Why do people keep saying that because past election results have never shown a TPP vote above a certain number then it would be impossible for it to happen in the coming election? Records are broken every day. Today’s AFL grand final is a good example. Who this morning would have put money on Geelong winning by more than 100 points?
I hope that today’s result will be a harbinger for the election. Geelong, after reigning supreme all year (in the polls) has annihilated their competition in the only match that counts. Labor will do the same.
ruawake ill be happy to disuss the libs loss anytime at the coolum pub with deb serving the beers
#682 Derek Corbett. Your talking about electorate offices as opposed to government offices. There will be quite a few people with revenge on their mind hiding/photocopying certain files.
I am sure Costello is playing silly whatsits with the election date. If he did let the cat out of the bag in parliament, what a perfect way to cover. Make up another date, then say he was playing with Rudds mind.
I am sure Howard has not decided on a date yet, so how would Costello know?
He didn’t know Downer was meeting with other ministers, why would anyone let him know the date?
678 fred. By my reading Morgans got its own 2pp wrong.
BB @ 680: Check out the piece on friday’s Lateline, interviewing a couple of advertising types. It was pretty sickening. One of them was talking about how “focus groups say they don’t like negative ads, but we know they do” and basing that on US experiences. Of course, as people have pointed out (think it was on LP?) there’s a big difference when it’s compulsory voting.
Are Crosby/Textor just pollers & strategy, or do they also do the ad spending? Because in the latter case, they’re obviously going to favour spending as much as possible, and damn the consequences.
If the govt did hold off on flooding the grand final telecast with ads, maybe they’re learning.
If anyone from insiders reads this. They should quote the correct figures from Morgan tomorrow. See #678 fred
Bushfire
Well said. Agree. Look at how Kennett nobbled any incoming government on public transport, energy. And he would have stuffed up water but the voters got him, just in time.
They are doing it now, in Canberra. Just hope the Shredding Transport Union Worker Alliance calls an indefinite …
libsrok
Beer Garden or Public Bar, too many pokies in the middle bit.
Old Jungle Saying:
Rodent who roots for cats meet same fate as fox who ferries scorpions.
beer garden its much nicer or maybe the balcony at the surf club to toast somolays end
Fred @ 685
Could be wrong, but when the result of the poll in an electorate is declared by the returning officer. Hence the often sad ritual of “declaring the poll”. It is always good form for the defeated candidate to attend and congratulate the new member. Grown men sometimes cry.
“Er, no. The libs and their lackeys will be busily shredding, cleaning computer hard drives, cleaning out cupboards, looking under desks … after 11 or so years, there’s a lot of crap lying around. They will clear it.”
I hear what you are saying, and it does not surprise me at all. But surely there will be contracts, letters, at least some things that can’t be shredded because they are inextricably linked to a deal or something that goes beyond the life of a government term. Then again, now that I think about it, yeah, maybe they would try to destroy ANYTHING that is politically damaging, even if it created massive bureaucratic black holes.
Perhaps I am assuming at least some degree of moral behaviour where in fact there is none. {gets a little depressed}
Michael Proud #684:
“He is joking with Dave Hughes on the theme of “last day in September†and refers to “last day in Novemberâ€.
No issue – no arrogance – little humour.”
My point exactly: what right has Costello to joke about something so serious? The man’s a cretin. He’s playing around with an issue that is on millions of minds at the moment.
Total arrogance.
Chris B @ 691
Point taken, Chris.
However, if Labor is elected it will have a job to do and should not be involved in petty political point-scoring – that’s the stuff of election campaigns.
Newspoll Tuesday? Have consulted the Oracle and, not being fluent in Sanscrit, managed to gain the following, fractured forecast: “Winds light to variable, but maybe change with fresh air blowing away … and dat be dat.”
687 Julie, Victoria has a fixed election date.
Primary voting intention monthly averages of the polls are up here:
http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=54&Itemid=1
I’ve also written a brief article on a hypothetical spending spree by the Coalition, here:
http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=57&Itemid=1
Noocat @ 701
Yes, Noocat. Massive black holes. Do not assume moral, ethical behaviour. Sad but true. Keep nit for big shredding trucks.
Someone asked who Twinza Oil is……………………………………………………
http://www.myanmar.com/myanmartimes/MyanmarTimes18-343/b001.htm
Perhaps Gordon Brown will go to the polls before the Rodent?
However, I think Gordy will hold off until April 2008 – he’s a cautious fellow.
Rumour is that more Conservative MPs are about to jump ship to the Labour Party – in the UK.
I watched barely any of the AFL Grand Final. Because the Swans weren’t involved, there wasn’t much interest in Sydney.
The Rodent is more of an NRL fan. I think you’ll find him presenting the trophy tomorrow night, like usual. I presume the Ruddster likes his Rugby League too, coming from QLD.
Re 704,
“687 Julie, Victoria has a fixed election date.”
(I knew this) So meaning, Gary, that calling early elections isn’t possible? If that being the case, I wouldn’t want Federal elections to go to fixed terms. I don’t like that flexibility being removed from the system.
I have said this elsewhere but Costello does not trust Howard. Costello may suspect that Howards is only interested in his own record and may keep delaying the election, Hyacinth will not want to miss the fireworks from Kirribilli, but that would mean Costello inheriting a graveyard. Costello is trying to force JWH to announce the election.
Red Wombat
Thanks for that link.
Will be interesting to see what reception he gets up here in Sydney. It is the heartland of the NRL that is also the high stress mortgage belt at the moment here in Sydney. Reports I have heard are homes being forced back onto the market after only 6 to 9 months in some cases because of rising interest rates …..
Costello let the cat out of the bag about Election Date on news tonight.
The Munz
” … Costello does not trust Howard …”
Nobody trusts Howard.
Twinza Oil is a subdidiary of Clough Engineering Group whose boss Harold William Clough is involved in the HR Nicholls Society, Bunnings and other mobs.
This link may show a bit more about this company and its ties with Burma.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/world/sanctions-dont-work-says-investor-with-liberal-ties/2007/09/28/1190486566962.html
Elections can be called early in Victoria if (a) the government is defeated in the Assembly or (b) legislation is blocked in the Council. The exact circumstances are set out in the Act. Barring these events, elections occur on a fixed date after four years. Labor policy is to apply this nationally. Fixed terms would not require a referendum, but four-year terms would.
Fred, gidday
Apart from the moral and ethical considerations in dealing with this odious regime, has the company breached any local or international law?
What, again, are its links to the Liberal Party?
btw
anyone remember a certain D hicks
come december he will be free to speak
oopsy
#703 Derek Corbett. No political point scoring, but corruption issue might be a different thing.
Quote by Paul McDermott on “The Sideshow” tonight.
“John Howard announced a 15% target of renewable energy by 2020, the Australian electorate have forecast a 0% target of John Howard by 2008″
Classic stuff
Let’s hope his comments are less obnoxious than his last effort.
“But surely there will be contracts, letters, at least some things that can’t be shredded because they are inextricably linked to a deal or something that goes beyond the life of a government term.”
I would assume that, upon a change of Govt., there is going to be some significant information coming out in relation to a range of issues – I would guess: the preparation for and execution of the Waterfront dispute in 1998; children overboard; and AWB, to start with.
Charlie,
AFL GF presentations used to involve politicians or Governors, but you’re right that it’s quite some time since that happened. Bob Hawke definitely presented the Cup in 1987, as it’s shown in the introduction to “On the Couch” on Fox each week (the succesful coach on that occasion is a panel member). I doubt that it’s happened since, and hostile reactions were certainly a factor.
On which subject, I guess many posters are familiar with the Whitlam gag, when he as PM accompanied Senator Ron McAuliffe (a prominent official) to a rugby league match in Brisbane. When they were introduced to the crowd, there was a (predictably) very hostile reception. Gough facetiously warned the senator afterwards: “Don’t ever bring me up here again when you’re so unpopular!”
I suspect that Rudd would have felt some obligation to tip/support Port Adelaide, as it is exclusively a workers’ team. Geelong has worker support, but it’s also the team of choice for the landed classes of western Victoria. My suspicion is that Rudd is at most marginally interested in sport, and would be relying on some-one in his office for guidance – especially with respect to Aussie Rules.
I don’t doubt Howard’s interest in the Rugby codes, but he knows very little about the Australian game. He notoriously offered congratulations to Tony Lockett on becoming the highest points-scorer in the VFL/AFL. While it’s mathematically true that he’d totalled more points than anyone else, the objective is to score goals, which Lockett accomplished better than anyone else.
Gusface, Terry Hicks lives two streets from me, a very nice man, David was a stupid idiot more than a terrorist and easily impressed, he never grew up and thought things through, i bet he does now though, ive heard he’s terrified that if he talks that Bush can ask for him back and i truly believe he was tortured and Howard knew, David trusts nobody and is content to just stay in his cell with his books so ive been told.it certainly wouldnt worry me if he shifted next door theres far worse than him around like Von Einam for instance– saying that Rann has promised he’ll be carried out of jail in a box.
Howard tried to foist himself on us to open the olympics remember, he only backed down after an uproar, he really fancies himself at any sporting event.
I have still not seen any evidence that Hicks has renounced, repudiated or apologised for his anti-democratic, anti-semitic views, as quoted by his own father from his letters on the ABC, or for his criminal actions in training with terrorist organisations in Afghanistan, which again he has never denied. If he does so, he should in my opinion be forgiven, although kept under surveillance. If he has not done so, he can stay in jail as far as I am concerned. And if people on the left think that the Hicks issue can do Howard any harm in the election, they are very wrong. Howard would just LOVE Hicks to be freed before the election and to start spouting his bile again – that would play right into Howard’s hands. Just because the floating voters have been driven back to Labor by WorkChoices and interest rates does NOT mean that they have changed their minds about the issues on which they supported Howard in 2001, so be warned.
Chris B @ 720
True, but only if it goes to good governance. Any new government, I reckon, has to swab the benches and get on with the bloody job. It would be nice to settle a few old scores and thrust the knife deeper, however, that task is probably best left to historians. The truth will always emerge, in some form or another.
Adam, Hicks has apologised via Terry, and ive been told he’s terrified of anyone not family, he’s not the same brash extremely immature individual who went overseas, i’m not sticking up for him but from what ive been told he will come out of gaol and fade into obscurity, there wont be any bile or bravado, he wants a new hermit like existance and he just wants to be left alone, his spirit has been broken with torture and he’s only comfortable with his own company, as i said in my previous blog theres far more dangerous people about, ive recieved some of my info from Yatala guards and my journo pal.
where has his apology been published?
Sure, but I don’t think this is a reason to lock someone up without charge for 3 or 4 years. Keeping him locked up without charge just demonstrated how flimsy the evidence was against him, hence his sentence was 5 years suspended to 9 months. The time he spent in prison without charge didn’t even count as part of his sentence. If Hicks is such a dangerous terrorist, why was he sentenced to only 9 months in prison? I am not saying Hicks was some innocent bystander. What I am saying is he is not a terrorist mastermind, he may not be the lowest rung on the ladder, but he is pretty close to it.
Well, I don’t think he should be kept in jail any longer than December. He plead guilty, and received a sentence. After he serves that sentence he should be freed. Well, unless there is new evidence to charge him with other crimes, but the evidence against him was always flimsy, hence the U.S. government let him plead guilty to lesser charges.
He was detained to prevent him resuming his career as a terrorist, not because he had been convicted of an offence. If the competent authorities now believe he is no longer a risk of doing that, he can be released. Afghanistan was a war zone, not a crime scene. He’s very lucky to have been released at all. Prisoners of war are not usually released until the war is over.
Opinions on how senior Hicks was in the al-Qaida hierarchy vary. This is information to which neither you nor I have access so there’s not much point in speculating about it, except to say that a committed jihadi of European appearance and with perfect English was a very important asset to al-Qaida, as they obviously recognised by the privileged way he was treated.
Adam it’s been in several newspapers and stories over time, his dad has passed on his apologies, as i said it wouldnt worry me if he was living next door though from what ive heard he will go live in the country, ive met Terry a couple of times but never pumped him over David and i cant recall ever having met David himself, i rely on my information from prison guards {ive a couple of contacts there} a senior cop pal and my journo friend, who by the way has no sympathy for David but does grudgingly admit he wont be much of a threat to anyone, but hey Adam i’m a bleeding heart who is anti the death penalty as well lol.
Chris B
Just to finish this. The Howard Government’s complete politicisation of the once-proud public service has left us with partisan operatives dedicated to covering their respective ends. They know where the skellies are and will, no doubt, steal into the crypt in the dead of night and remove offending objects.
Went to the Chinese Moon festival show tonight – got accosted by a mainland Chinese guy now living in Australia telling me how unfair WorkChoices is.
Hell, adam I’m against torturing someone, even if they’re anti semitic.
As for being a “prisoner of war”, I thought the entire farcical (if you weren’t Hicks) exercise was carried on because he wasn’t subject to the conditions that civilised nations treat POW’s.
I think liberal democratic countries can do better than this. I don’t think people should be detained because there is a concern they may commit a criminal offence. People should be sentenced as punishment for commiting criminal offences.
If that means legislation to create new criminal offences, then that is OK, provided it is done in a logical manner by well thought out legislation, subject to judicial review. But I don’t think prisons should be used to house people without charge, without any chance of judicial review, just because one suspects someone may do something wrong.
Why is now any different to 2002 or 2003? If someone wants to commit a terrorist act, I’m pretty sure they will find a way to do it. Again, I don’t think locking people up as a precautionary measure makes much sense. It certainly doesn’t make sense to do it for 3 or 4 years.
If Hicks was a serious threat, he would currently be in the 4th or 5th year of a 20 or 30 year prison sentence. But he isn’t, because the U.S. and Australian governments know he isn’t a serious threat to anyone. If he was such a terrorist mastermind, why would we even want him back in Australia? He could’ve served out his sentence in Guantanimo.
Are you sure? One of the charges against him was attempted murder, which is a criminal charge. It was thrown out by the judge because there wasn’t enough evidence.
Plus, I don’t agree with the Bush doctrine that executive power under the U.S. system is whatever the executive says it is. I think U.S. democracy is better than that kind of Nixonian crap.
The U.S. obviously don’t think he was very high, else they wouldn’t of agreed to sending him to prison for just 9 months. Remember, all that time he was detained without charge doesn’t count as part of his sentence.
unfortunately i dont think Rudd will follow through delving into the coalition’s dodgy dealings, though i think it’s imperative he does re the nuclear deals made under the lap.
Judy (738) – I don’t think Rudd would go on any sort of witch hunt, but a change of government would loosen the archives, and we can expect to see any number of stories regarding the Howard government’s nefarious double dealings. A loss for the Libs, especially one of the magnitude that seems to be apparent, would send them into disarray, and they would be at genuine risk of descending into infighting and recrimination. In such an atmosphere, the drip, drip, drip of the misdeeds of the former administration would only add to that mix.
This is all very off-topic so I won’t pursue this matter further here. Just don’t expect a Rudd government to be any less rigorous in its application of the anti-terrorist laws than Howard has been. That includes the “control order” mechanism, which in its most severe form amounts to preventive detention. That will be used when deemed necessary on the advice of the security agencies.
Hicks was a no-body ” in the al-Qaida hierarchy “. I’m not trying to stand up for him and I don’t care if they use control orders when he gets out but I think exaggerating his importance is absurd. He was a foot soldier who did guard duty. I think this treating every suspected terrorist as if they are supermen with extraordinary powers doesn’t do anyone any good. We’re now told he was a great asset because ” of European appearance and with perfect English “. Please. What next. He has X-Ray vision?
Well, um, I hope they won’t politicise the AFP, and migration issues the way Ruddock and Andrews did during the Haneef affair. Only thanks to The Australian and Haneef’s lawyers do we know that Andrews took chat room conversations completely out of context to try and create suspicion.
I am looking forward to McLelland in foreign affairs, with big involvement by Rudd of course, but also people like Mike Kelly, Peter Tinley and Rodney Cocks would be great additions to caucus for the purpose of national security. Hopefully it is like the 80s when Labor had a far better national security team than the Liberals.
Adam I am extremely surprised that someone as smart as you would make a number of very serious mistakes of fact in this thread re David Hicks:
#1 He is not a prisoner of war – he was sold to the US military by the Northern Alliance – not captured by the US on the ‘battlefield’.
#2 Afghanistan is not a war zone – there is no declared war being waged between nations. Do you mean to say that you agree with this ‘war on terror’ bullshit? If someone commits acts of terrorism then they are a criminal and should be charged with and tried for their crimes.
#3 David Hicks has not committed any real crimes against either the United States or Australia and to my knowledge training with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan was not a crime there, either. John Howard has pretty much acknowledged that Hicks could not be charged under criminal law in the US or Australia. The charges brought against him under the military commission system at Guantanamo Bay were constructed under retrospective legislation passed by the former Republican Congressional majority which sanctioned a trial lacking most features of fairness accorded to US citizens charged in the US or Australian charged in Australia. Everyone is clear that David Hicks pleaded guilty to get out of the Guantanamo hellhole where there is evidence of torture having occurred.
I am astonished that you should so lightly talk about ‘competent authorities’ deciding whether he is a threat and should be detained or released. I have not previously heard anything about Hicks being anti-semitic. You seem to be saying that he should stay in jail if he has not “renounced, repudiated or apologised for his anti-democratic, anti-semitic views”. I find it hard to believe that you are serious. Let me assure you that I will be vociferous in protesting when you are detained without access to lawyers or courts by the ‘competent authorities’, but I no longer have any illusion that you would do the same for me.
As for the impact on the election, which I suppose makes this relevant to the thread topic, I personally know of people in previously safe Liberal seats on Sydney’s North Shore who will be voting against the Libs for the first time because of David Hicks’ treatment, together with Tampa, children overboard etc etc.
Re politicising (horrible word) the PS. I don’t know how you could can quickly reverse it without some sort of “äffirmative action”.. which IMO is just perpetuating the disease.
Although first Hawke/Keating & then Howard consciously accelerated the trend, if you have a long term govt, then bureaucrats of a world view acceptable to the govt will tend to rise to the top (eg John Stone). There are very few Nugget Combes around.
What is more objectionable, and more easily fixed, is the proliferation of political advisers and aides on the public payroll. The evil of this is the avoidance of Ministerial Responsibility.. the buck stops in the spitoon in the back room!
Well maybe Rudd & Co. can reverse this.. let’s see!
I wonder what anti Rudd/Labor clap trap Milne has for us today.
Adam i cant see Rudd condoning torture though, radio 5AA had a professor of politics on earlier and a caller tried to bring up the shredding mess from years ago in Queensland when Rudd was a public servant, she was dumped by the host, i wonder if Howard is keeping the lid on that little morsel until the election is called or whether he wants it left strictly alone because of messy national fingerprints in it.
No more David Hicks, please.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
I was thinking the same thing! Normally it is online by now (Courier Mail first, Daily Telegraph soon after).
Ok, William. No more H*cks.
Howard is getting it from all sides, sorry William that was my fault.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/telstra-slams-pillaging-pm/2007/09/29/1190486635597.html
another article negative to Howard, my last for the night, this little rubber duckey is worn out {says judy as she climbs back into her shy shell} g/night all.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/pm-of-ulterior-motives/2007/09/29/1190486626917.html
I don’t know what to make of this:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22504865-5006009,00.html
It seems that Ray Martin agreed to host a Labor fundraiser, but then changed his mind, allegedly due to pressure from his bosses at 9. Channel 9 want to get the TV debate, but now it seems the Liberals are unhappy about Martin at least initially agreeing to front an ALP fundraiser.
Who else would Howard choose instead of Ray Martin?
Feds to spend $1 million on a Christmas parade in Sydney.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22505274-5006009,00.html
This is it! Expect the polls to narrow considerably!
i couldnt resist it, dont bother looking for Milne’s weekly serve of bile, here it is, g/night again folks.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22503935-953,00.html
… And beautiful it is.
Milne’s is an article on just how negative the campaign is going to be. Of course, Labor’s will be more negative than the Coalition’s. Tut, tut…
He ends it with this line (referring to a woman in America who got up at a presidential debate and publicly castigated politicians who went the smear):
“Let’s hope as campaign 2007 gets under way in the coming weeks that somewhere out there there’s the Australian equivalent of this woman. And she gets the chance to ask the same question.”
This monumental hypocrisy is from the man who brought us Strippergate (with its unpursued allegations that Rudd was ejected from a nightclub for bad behavior), You-Know-Who-Is-Gay-gate (with it’s insinuation that Labor leaked the story, when he had been given the file by a Liberal, or “not by Labor” as he coyly put it), Long-Tan-gate and a host of other gates.
Reading this man’s smarmy, I’m-a-senior-journalist-wannabee bile really does make me want to take up ashtray-chucking again.
God help my TV tube if he’s on Insiders tomorrow.
I think Tony Jones should host the debate. I like him.
I would have thought that both electorate and Government (and Ministerial) offices are owned by the taxpayers of this country…
Telstra are now effectively campaigning against the government. This will be more bad news for the government. It will undermine the Government claims of Financial and Technology credibility.
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22506833-462,00.html
Tom, Howard has made a bitter enemy of Telstra and it’s coming home to bite him,in trying to trump Rudd’s broadband policy he’s handed $billions on a plate to overseas interests and deliberately shut Telsra out in the cold, Howards plan is obviously for an inferior product and let’s face it, the whole shoddy wheeling and dealing has been a slap in the face for the mum and dad investors that Howard talked into buying those shares, i dont like the brash attitude of Sol and co but i can see where their coming from.
Morning all – I have undertaken an investigation into the uniformity of swings across all seats, of the past four elections. Summary results are here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=744
Telstra is about to get rib of a lot of their pay phones around the Wentworth electorate.
That will give Turnbull a bit of a headache, on top of all his other problems.
this poll has got almost NO media attention, and I know that Morgan rarely does. Imagine though if it had of improved 4 points THE OTHER WAY??
Top piece of scurrilous bile from P-Dwarf!
I wonder why he imagines he has any public credibility after last years live- -to -air pisspottery.
Imagine having this turkey onside!
did anyone see Milne on Meet The Press– and that idiot who says the voters will all flock back to Howard on the day– he’s delusional.
The Bolter at his scurrilous best on Insiders this morning…
Andos, actually I nearly fell off my chair when Bolt talked about all the talent coming into the Labor front bench this election. Even mentioned Combet!
Kelly was good and a bit fairer on the The Insiders this morning as well, hmmm maybe the media tide is turning.
So, were medical training places cut in 1996? Insiders played the footage and then didn’t bother doing any research to find out who was lying and who was telling the truth! LAZY HACKS, IT WOULD HAVE TAKEN YOU 30 SECONDS TO ORDER AN ABC RESEARCHER TO LOOK IT UP.
That bloke Judy (764) talked about on Meet The Press had worked for the Liberal Party in a past life in a couple od positions one being an advisor to Nick Greiner years ago.
OK, I’ve done my own research (yes, google – but not ALP press releases), I think Gilliard was referring to the 1996 Medicare Provider Number bill, which I think limited the number of GP training places (because there was an oversupply at the time). http://www.ama.com.au/web.nsf/doc/WEEN-6H92RV/%24file/AMA_Submission_to_2005_Biennial_Review.pdf
The effect seems to have been a restriction on the number of training places, and eventually on the supply of GPs.
So, did the Howard government cut the number of GP training places in 1996? It placed a limit on them, but from what I can tell, the limit was above the number of doctors being trained at the time(?) Only a few years after that did it begin to act as a bottleneck on the number of doctors being trained.
I think in this case, Gillard was more honest than Abbott.
And also, Abbott was missing the main point – that not enough doctors are being trained today. (Although is there really a shortage of GPs? Maybe specialists, but GPs???)
There you go, ABC, you can use that research for FREE.
Thanks Gary Bruce, I didnt know that (769). I dont think Milne has much credibility out there in journo-land.
As for Insiders this morning, I noticed they finally mentioned the Morgan Poll – but only in the context of their weekly poll report.
57/43 seems to be about average for most of the year.
Go Melbourne Storm!!!!
Bob Katter & Tony Windsor on Insiders both sounded like they were leaning toward supporting the ALP should their be a hung parliament. Very interesting…
yes Dario i got that impression also, especially Katter,he was very good in his summing up of Rudd and labor, this election just gets more and more interesting.
how i wish Howard would bite the bullet and call the bloody election, he’s not playing with Rudd’s nerves he’s playing with ours! every time i see him on telly now i just want to put my hands around his scrawney little neck and strangle him– and i’m a bleeding heart pacifist lol.
Andrew Bolt seems to be convinced the government is gone.
More power to Tony Windsor.
Katter made a bit of sense for a change – still think he’s a fruit loop though.
Yes the Government cut GP training places and medicare provider numbers in 1996. The numbers were less than the number of medical students. I remember Dr Wooldridge response was that there were other things new graduates could do with their degrees – he, for example went into politics rather than private practice.
The Howard government got medical planning badly wrong in 1996 and the lag period to see the results has been about 10 years. I could give my opinion on why this happened but it would only start a fight.
Abbott was lying through his a##e when he said Gillard was lying.
A very quick google brings up this evidence.
http://www.ama.com.au/web.nsf/doc/SHED-5EXH4Q
I’d just like to go on the record – a day late and completely off topic – to profess my new-found love for the Geelong Football Club. And at least a third (probably closer to half) of of South Australians, including me, now considers them to be our favourite Victorian club ever. Which isn’t saying much, but you catch my drift.
119 is my new favourite number. This is going to be oh so sweet for oh so long
Thank you Geelong, we are in your debt!
…
As you were.
KellyWatch: On Insiders he didn’t sound too enthusiastic about the polls, not even mild speculation that the government might show up well in Tuesday’s Newspoll. All he talked about was how bad all the polls were.
If there’s a glimmer of hope Newspoll will be alright for Howard, Kelly usually sparks up a bit, but not today. I’d feel another 58/42 a’comin’. He was downright morose.
Megalogenis took the gloomy path in his parting comment that Howard hasn’t had two good (i.e. improving) Newspolls in a row this year.
I’m also predicting Howard won’t show his face too much at the NRL footy this evening. The boo-ing would be too awful for him to have to sit through (although I’d sit through it, with relish).
Which begs the question: why do we (taxpayers) have to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars ferrying him around from Sydney to Melbourne and then back again (with the plane hangared in Canberra in the meantime) if he has no official function at the games?
A cut to places whether they were being filled or not is still a cut
Video Hits (of all shows) just closed the show with a big ‘we love you Kevin07′ before putting the vid for Blue Sky Mines on. Didn’t see that coming.
Bushfire Bill @ 780, I would not bare to sit through all that booing at the NRL GF, not without joining in that is….
I love it how Lefties purport to be fiscally responsible when they’re out of power, but once in power they create record-breaking deficits and bankrupt government coffers.
Take a look at the atrocious ways the States have spent their money. They are the worst offenders when it comes to self-promotion and needless extravagance.
A-C: outline the atrocities (and if you have the space, a quick note on economic theory, capacity constraints, state budgets as opposed to federal, and outdated infrastructure in Australia). That is a silly comment.
Paul Kelly also suggested that the election will be called SOON. Hardly a revelation, there are now only 4 practical dates left. November 10, 17 & 24, and December 1.
My hunch is that the election will be announced on Monday 8th October, issue of writ will be the 9th and the close of rolls for Friday 12th October.
This gives the PM time to have all the State governors sign the writs for Senate elections, while ensuring people have the minimum period of 3 working days to update their enrolment in accordance with the amended electoral laws. There will be no additional weekend days for people to organise themselves.
Announcing it on the 8th is the day before the 3 year anniversary of the 2004 election, short circuiting media coverage of the PM not announcing the election within 3 years of the 2004 poll. This could literally be interpreted as the government going “full term”.
I reckon a 6 week campaign as a comprimise between allowing an extra week to put Rudd under the blowtorch while dealing with the Liberal party’s limited finances. According to my maths that is a polling date of November 17th.
I don’t believe that Costello “slipped up” yesterday. His remarks were calculated. I wouldn’t read too much into it.
Turnbull Poll: Howard to win Bennelong
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22507169-1702,00.html
Dear Moron,
When Howard was treasurer, debt was 4% of GDP. When Howard became Prime Minister, debt was 2% of GDP. 4 is a bigger number than 2, alternatively, 2 is a smaller number than 4.
Even after >$70 billion of assett sales, Govt Debt is still $55 billion. Do the arithmetic A-C.
A-C this self promotion by this federal government is a record spend isn’t it? Produce the evidence to suggest otherwise please otherwise, as with the rest of your contribution, you will be shown to be talking through your hat.
The government did not cut the number of training places they restricted access to medicare billing to new doctors who had to go through more training as either a GP or specialist to get a provider no. And then they said sorry we are only going to train 360 (I think from memory) GPs per year. Effectively putting a quota on medicare.
The result has been too few GPs esp in rural and regional aus and eds full of pts who can’t get into see a GP = cost shifting and technical inefficiency.
Most govts worldwide underestimated the doctor need at the time viz uk which has recently doubled their med school output. The reasons for this are largely work life balance changes where drs are no longer prepared to work 80 hour weeks. That said the main (covert) reason for the changes in 1996 was to reign in cost and shift it onto the states.
I don’t think the Liberals will be able to talk about fiscal responsibility again for a long, long time, after this year’s incredible binge of pork barrelling and taxpayer-funded election advertising. The Mersey Hospital buyout is one of the most blatant pieces of irresponsible, verging on corrupt, pieces of vote-buying ever seen in this country (and it hasn’t even worked!).
Greetings Imbecile,
Care to provide me more laughs in regards to your economic illiteracy?
First, what sort of “debt” are you referring to?
Second, take a look at the surrounding circumstances: In 1983 there was a severe drought and a sharp recession, this almost always means a deficit. In 1996 the economy had been expanding for 4 years (although not as well as it should have been). Notwithstanding that, it is a testament to Labor’s complete incompetence that the government was running $96 billion in the red.
For kicks, try spinning your way out of that one.
ruawake, federal government debt it near zero. I think you might be slightly confused.
No A-C listen to Costello he talks about “net debt” this does not mean that there is zero debt.
As with all things the Govt. says you have to look behind the weasel words.
The Govt. is paying interest on $55 billion worth of debt. FACT.
Gary Bruce, I’m not for a second condoning the Federal Government’s shameful self-promotion through advertising.
What I *was* doing was trying put it into some perspective for some of the partisan hacks (most likely Left-faction ALP staffers) on this website who see everything through the lens of “ALP = good. Everything Kevin the Messiah does is under the auspices of the Almighty Lord” and Coalition = evil. Everything Howard does is desperate, dishonest and under the command of Satan.â€
most of that debt i believe is for government bonds and borrowings to fund HECS loans. Both are essential
Today’s Sunday Crimes magazine had an insert for Howard’s “Climate Clever” scheme.
So it seems Murdoch is beingf used to distribute the spam instead of Aust Post.
A-C has his random cliche generator on after burner.
More APEC fallout, it seems that Charges against the Chaser may be dropped.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22506948-5005361,00.html
Score 1 Chaser – ) Howard 0
A-C (784),
I would like you to justify your comment about “the atrocious ways the States have spent their moneyâ€. I realise that a proper discussion of the issue is very complex and would require a detailed knowledge of all six state budgets over a lengthy time period, so you may be able to point me to a non-partisan study somewhere that backs your claim.
The states receive in GST revenue about the same proportion of GDP, 5 per cent, as they did in federal grants, before the GST, so they are not swimming in revenue. Even so, the Victorian Government has cut its own taxes from 5.8 per cent of GSP to 4.5 per cent. This is a saving of more than $2 billion to the state economy. It has run a budget surplus every year and it has still been able to invest in services and infrastructure. Every state budget is in surplus.
This is boring for regular readers, who may skip the rest as they have heard most of it before. The Victorian Labor Government has:
employed thousands of extra police,
employed 8,061 extra nurses,
employed 1,500 extra doctors,
employed 5,193 extra teachers,
invested $1.4 billion on capital spending on schools,
started on a further $1.9 billion capital investment in schools over this term as part of a plan to rebuild every school in the state, and
rebuilt the Austin Hospital.
I do not have to travel far from my home to see a brand new Labor Government-provided CFA station, two brand new Labor Government-provided police stations, a brand new Labor Government-provided primary school and a brand new Labor Government-provided ambulance/police/CFA station.
Attacking the “atrocious†but strangely re-elected state governments will not win this election for the Liberals. My own view, expressed more than once, is that is almost impossible for them to win. They have now wasted ten months on campaigns which have had less impact than fairy floss would on Kevlar. I think it is now too late.
Kevlar Kevin?
AC – Federal Revenue as a proportion of GDP, as well as in total, is the greatest it has even being while at the same time payments to the States as a proportion of GDP is at its lowest for 20 or so years. The States actually deliver schools and hospitals etc and are doing a fantastic job. The anti-States campaign is completely and stupidly ill informed or deliberately dishonest and is just political rubbish from Lib HQ.
If this stuff was a new lie I be worried, but the polls all year have been steady and solid not withstanding constant lies and smear from Lib HQ.
All well and good Chris Curtis, but could you address this point please:
“Everything Kevin the Messiah does is under the auspices of the Almighty Lord†and Coalition = evil. Everything Howard does is desperate, dishonest and under the command of Satan.â€
Stumped now, aren’t you?
It’s all the feds have left to do. They can’t talk about their own record, becuase voters couldn’t care less. They just see wasted opportunity.
When Costello was handing out “one off” vote buying payments, he should’ve been matching state funds to build desalination plants. But instead he considered the short term electoral tweak more important than securing our country’s water future.
A-C
“Everything Howard does is desperate, dishonest and under the command of Satan.†Too true, too true, but you left out slimy and scheming and …
Oakeshott, as if we’d fight with you– we’re saving that up for Howard, as for Abbott lying, well that lot couldnt lie straight in bed!
Pat@802 – I’m not sure what could be added except
The Lord Bless Kevin and keep Kevin, the Lord make his face shine upon Kevin and give Australia peace.
pmsl Max, if you need tickets any time i’ll lend you my crows gold pass, that’ll give you two seats, i cant get there every match and their GOOD seats.
Frank @ 798, we can just lock them away on a small island, torture them and think about charging them in abou 4 3/4 years from now. Should keep another issue out the way until after the election. Besides, one of them was wearing a robe – must be guilty. I believe the precedent has alraedy been set.
On another note, what is the bet that the Gunn’s Mill anaouncement is made at the same time as the election – to try and minimise it with the electorate – the Libs are stupiod enough to try anything…
And all good & fair Australians say Amen to that
Pat @802
It seems as if you already have your answer. But, what was the question?
Rumour is it is being announced some time this week.
My guess is the government will find a way to support it, but with some changes of some sort.
William – are there any protocols restricting name calling on this site? Calling each other “moron” and “imbecile” is not a good look, whatever the worth of the arguments.
Another election winning strategy from our august leader:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/30/2047102.htm?section=justin
Pat (802),
Not stumped! I let that one through to the keeper. He’s submitting it for the next series of Wire in the Blood.
Dear me! I should have known the outrage from 95% of the commentators on this site when an evil Howard supporter dares encroach on tribal territory!
To Chris Curtis and jasmine “ALP campaign launches bring tears to my eye” Anadyr.
You only have to pick up a newspaper to come across the latest debacle from a state-run hospital, corrupt (and inept) police forces, public “transport”, or indoctrination centres (public schools).
Funding and employment boosts towards various sectors *do not* necessarily correspond with an increaes in quality. And they certainly haven’t in most states.
Need I mention the looming water catastrophe we’re about to encounter? When was the last time a State government proposed to build a dam? Why on earth did that idiot Bracks (good riddance he’s gone) and now Premier Brumby refuse to sign onto the national water scheme?
Yes, the federal government is stuffed – but I’m really looking forward to Howard bringing these rotten to the core mob of state governments down with him.
Explain this.
In Perth Sunday Times today we have the following
“information” which you all have paid for.
page 17: half page ad in colour suggesting that I
switch appliances off at the wall and thank the
current government for making us all “climate
clever”
page 27: one third of a page ad with same wording
(but in black and white)
Is this a responsible use of our money?
I can’t even believe it will deliver any votes to the
Liberals.
A-C, what you conservatives are going to have to accept is that everything relating to the economy that your mob has done, the labor party will be able to do easily – only better. Keep up the insults (loooserrr).
According to the betting on betfair, the odds for the election are the same as todays game.
ALP 1.50 / LIB2.98.
ARL Seas Eagles 2.98 / Superleague News Ltd Anywhere But Melbourne Storm 1.50.
They are kiddin’. Rudd will be winning and that newspaper mob are going to get bashed.
In AFL Collingwood are going to be expelled, Essendon are merging with Western Bulldogs and Richmond are merging with Hawthorn, to enable a second Sydney team into the competition backed by the Murdoch press.
Hockey is trying to beat this one up and run with it.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22507182-5005962,00.html
Akerman is still trying to thrash the Queensland story of nineteen years ago and tie Rudd in with it, even Howard doesnt want to go there, methinks perhaps the Nationals have something to hide with it all.
Dr Good
That is a bloody disgrace! The libs have probably scringled some contra deal, but that little exercise in useless advertising would have cost a small fortune.
“Protocols” is too big a word, but I would probably have deleted the “moron” and “imbecile” comments if I had been on the ball. The damage has been done now, so I will restrict myself to asking those responsible to behave themselves.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
A C {816} in 2002 the states approached Howard to buy out Cubbie station and let the water they were damming {enough to fill the Sydney Harbour} flow down the Murray plus help provide money for pipes to bring the water from where it was plentiful to where it was needed, Howard dissed them off!
More Howard Pork.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22507221-5005361,00.html
Is 824 comments a record, William?
Yes it is EC, but not one I’m greatly excited about. It just means I’ve taken an unusually long time to start a new thread because I’m taking it easy(-ish) this weekend.
A big response to this thread, but we should all take the proverbial cold shower as Morgan are often way off the mark. But – the aggregation of polls on ‘Insiders’ toay is still VERY good news. Also saw that Kortlang bloke on ‘Greet the Mess’ on 10 this morn – can’t agree with him that the voters are just flirting with Rudd, this guy obviously doesn’t read any blogs or talk to the hoi polloi.
Frank @ 823
This is making me very angry indeed. Note his words, though, “…some $10 million …” That means it’ll work at $19.99 pinched from the petty cash jar. If that. The League of Rugger Gentlemen should not hold its breath. If members have any sense, they’ll ask for a cheque – now! – and bung it in the bank, pronto. The man has no shame.
AC I don’t need an ALP launch to bring tears to my eyes, there is a clip of Bob Hawke signing some of Solidarity forever on youtube, you can fire it up and have the tears any time you are feeling a bit low.
You cite newspaper articles as you evidence in a complex debate in respect of vertical fiscal imbalance. And yes the misunderstanding of how excellently State’s are delivering the services that matter to Australian’s does come back to very sensationally reported stories in the media. The West, not happy with how bad are hospitals are ran a false story; and now that is the evidence you are relying on to get back to the talking point sent from head office.
For dams to fill you have to have that thing that falls from the sky, I can’t remember what it is called. As if building a million dams would have been the solution 10 years ago. Taking climate change seriously 10 years ago was what was needed, but our beloved leader didn’t get them memo there was a real issue until this year.
Your police force comments would need some evidence. You are suggesting systemic failure, I’m pretty sure there is no evidence for that.
Commerce stopped playing the loony tunes game of ‘fewer people fewer resources gives better outcomes’ decades ago. It is a loony tunes game completely divorced from reality. A common hymn in the CCI hymn book I know but that doesn’t make it smart.
The State Governments are not rotten to the core they are actually doing a fantastic job; but your research is in the newspapers so you aren’t going to get to understand this.
Alex @ 826
If the blogging world proportionately represents the population of Australia, then in a few months we will have a government comprising of approximately 150 ALP seats.
Judy @ 808 – would be tempted to take you up on that… lol.
i just put in a blog at the Akerman site for the first time– actually i never read him or Janet, i let fly and i know dammed well it wont get printed but gee it felt good.
I would agree that the States have been starved of funds by the Feds ( money going to the states is now only 5% of GDP whereas it used to be 7% ) but to say that the States are doing a fantastice job is an exaggeration. They are generally doing a good job in difficult circumstances but let’s face it if the State Oppositions weren’t totally and completely hopeless then some of these State governments would have lost power.
Of course the blogging world does not represent the population of Australia, something we should try to remember once in a while.
“When was the last time a State government proposed to build a dam? ”
A-C
Qld Labor last year.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/070930/2/14k1f.html
Big Bob Katter calls it for Rudd. Claims IR and climate change will kill Howard stone dead.
He also reckons country people will swing ALP for first time in 30-40 years.
Ive been a big fan of Bob’s work on coalition unity for years.
You gotta listen when the Big Grey Man talks.
Hi Adam,
Off topic but do you have anything on Charles McLaren who stood against A A Calwell in Melbourne in 1949 ? – its one of the elections your revising.
A-C that obviously would have been about the time your political deity John Howard made a promise to open up the heavens and fill up all the empty ones.
(Somehow federally, there was a lack of “faith” in “climate change.” A new faith of “climate shift” has however been discovered and we wait with bated breath to see if this new faith will fill up the dams before the election.)
That’s probably the first lucid thing I’ve ever heard from B. Katter, but do admire his work on coalition unity. Admirable, an ornament to the game.
A-C (816),
I don’t think anywhere near “95% of the commentators on this site†have even responded to you, much less with outrage. Newspaper articles of particular failings in state government areas of responsibility, which have been common under governments of both persuasions for at least the 40 years I have been paying attention, do not constitute proof that the Labor states are “atrocious†at spending money.
Funding and employment boosts do not “necessarily†correspond to improvements in quality, but they tend to be a necessary step for that improvement in quality to occur over the long term; e.g., if you do what the Liberals did in Victoria and dump almost 9,000 teachers from the system the workload of the rest increases and they burn out and leave. If you add 5,193 teachers in place of those missing, you start to undo the damage done and you can then cap prep to grade 2 classes at 21 pupils each so that teachers can pay more attention to individuals and improve their basic skills. The employment of additional nurses and doctors has increased the number of patients treated in hospitals though not eliminated waiting lists for elective surgery.
The Liberals used to understand these things. That is why Liberal Governments employed an additional 13,000 teachers between 1973 and 1978, leaving the secondary pupil-teacher ratio at 10.9:1 in 1981. By 1992, the Liberals had forgotten this and they worsened the secondary PTR from 10.8:1 to 12.6:1 by 1999, when Victorians finally cast them into the outer darkness.
My understanding is that Steve Bracks refused to hand over the state’s constitutional power over water because the federal government scheme was not adequate to meeting the needs of Victorian irrigators.
The day will come when the Liberals can pick up a few state governments, not because those governments are ‘rotten to the core’, but because they will run out of ideas and lose touch. To do so, the Liberals have to get in touch and that is their difficulty. If they were in touch, they would never have brought in their IR laws, which upend a century of progress in Australian and strike at the heart of what our nation is. If they were in touch, they would be able to respond more successfully to the state governments because they would actually know the areas of concern and be able to make a case that they would fix them.
The worst government Victoria has had in my life was the last Liberal one. I have never known a government to be so destructive and at the same time given such an easy ride by the press. If the Liberals can move away from the ‘slash and burn’ mentality of that era, they will be contenders again. If they and their supporters keep banging on about the states, the unions, the “Labor has no policies†line, the Heiner Affair, Brian Burke, etc, they will remain an irrelevance.
if there is a change of government there will need to be changes to
the National electoral laws such as fixed terms, votes are formal to the extent that a voter’s intention is clear, extend time to vary enrollment details (including new enrollments)
and other changes so that the extensive tax payer funded political
adds cannot occur in the future
such changes would i’m sure be supported by all fair minded people
Oakeshott, no, I know nothing about him, other than that he was never elected to any Australian Parliament.
Does anyone know who the No 4 candidate on the ALP Senate ticket in SA is? They’d have to be given some chance of election on current polling.
Max @ 826. watch an Australian crime show ch9 tuesday nights at the end of the month and you’ll know who i am, your welcolme to the tickets when i’m not using them {which is rarely nowadays}, they get you into the shed afterwards as well, we need to fly the colours at ALL home matches.
Brack and Brumby by opposing the national water plan did so because the plan reduced the water allocation for Victorian farmers.
We don’t need this water plan, what we need is a series of desalination plants which could be placed in a number of places around the country overlooking the sea then delivered to those areas that need it.
Why should Victoria give up water when NSW uses part of its allocation for rice growing and we all know Rice requires a large amount of water.
While we can question how this Govt has spent our money, one thing we can say is they have at least delivered 10 budget sulphus and have a better record than the Keating Govt, now before anyone bangs on about foreign dept or private dept, that isn’t really the Govt problem.
If people choose to run up credit card dept then that isn’t Costello’s problem, the world economy runs on dept and that isn’t going to change.
I feel for Lefties for we all want the Election but Howard does have the right to call the Election when he chooses, just as in 2010 Kevin Rudd will have that right regardless of what we may think of the Howard Govt it is no worst or better than the Keating Govt.
While it wont happen but I wonder what swing will be needed to the ALP to win 119 seats.
Well, I’m not a left-faction party hack. Never been a member. Never will be. I vote Labor, though.
BTW, new post from Possum is up, “My, what a big swing you have”. Predicting 49 seats to change hands.
12.2%
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/pendulum.shtml
Chris @ 838
“My understanding is that Steve Bracks refused to hand over the state’s constitutional power over water because the federal government scheme was not adequate to meeting the needs of Victorian irrigators.”
In the early stages of this, wasn’t Bracks also concerned that the Feds would privatise the system? In other words, gain control, fatten and flog.
” The worst government in Victoria … ”
Yes, a time of horror. Kennett’s Water Reform Unit was working on the details. Bracks was around at the time, hence his concerns about Howard’s water plan?
Derek,
Yes, privatisation was also a concern.
Wrong. It’s everyone’s problem. And with a government which encourages consumption and spending it is inevitable that debt would rise.
bmwofoz asks:
“I wonder what swing will be needed to the ALP to win 119 seats.”
Bloody Krypto Geelong supporters everywhere today!
As to fixed terms etc, let’s wait and see what Rudd & Co do.
I’m off to see what possum’s got to say.
That is the line being run in the media, but the cops have only said they will re-consider the matter in December. My suspicion is that the government don’t want this embarrasment aired during the election campaign so its been deferred, but the deity help the lads if the coalition squeaks back.
Possum has once again come up with a set of mysterious calculations proving that Labor is going to win seats which everybody knows Labor is not going to win (Dawson, Warringah, Goldstein, Higgins). I’m not sure what the point of this is. It’s possible to over-analyse polls, and I think Possum is falling into this trap. All the polls really tell us is that there is a big swing on everywhere except WA, where there is a medium swing. Trying to extract more precise information from the polls is a mistake. Polling is not an exact science and treating poll data like, say, meterological data is futile.
A-C # 816
Newspapers…. well then it must be true. You are talking culture war garbage, and that war, like all wars this government has embarked on, is lost. Water is a problem because we are in a drought, as in a water shortage, are you seriously suggesting Liberal state governments would have done *any* different? What gazed into their crystal ball and realised the drought was coming? The national water scheme is a short term political fix designed to wedge and nothing else. It’s costing is poor and long term efficacy is questionable. Qld Labor has Traveston on the drawing board and it has been opposed by conservatives at every turn. As for your good and evil, Satan and God analogy, being atheist all I can say is that when Howard is burnt at the political stake, I for one will be toasting marshmallows and making merry. The only thing JWH will be dragging down is his beloved Liberal party, a long long way down.
When was the last time a State government proposed to build a dam?
A-C 816
When was the last time a suitable site for a new dam appeared on the river systems of southern Australia? Ain’t exactly a lot of places left to put said dams.
So where are you proposing to put these new dams?
Not to mention an increasing lack of rain to fill them.
And a whole lot of other problems that go with dams.
Adam,
Whilst your point is valid, surely you can see the humour in forcing certain Coalition MPs – such as Abbott and Costello – into donning the brown trousers on election night.
Dams can’t save us. There’s plenty of water falling but it’s falling in all the wrong places. For instance the rainfall in southern Australia over the past 10 years has moved south so that we’re getting plenty of rain falling on the coast and out to sea but none where the Dams are. You can’t build dams and expect that they will fill. It would be better to make everyone on the coastal cities install water tanks so that when the rain falls they at least catch that water. Building Dams is an old idea which doesn’t work anymore.
“… which everybody knows Labor is not going to win.”
Everybody? Perhaps you mean, with respect, that everybody you know hopes that Labor will not win.
Adam at 850
The point of it is to produce an accurate as possible representation of exactly what the last newspoll quarterly results suggested on a seat by seat basis.The results are simply what the last Newspoll quarterly looks like applied to 139 seats in the 5 states involved.
The analysis here is actually underanalysis not over.Its no different to applying a national uniform swing to the national pendulum.We just happen to be using 15 pendulums rather than 1.
These results look bad in absolute seat terms because more people in safe government seats across the country are saying they will vote ALP, and more people in NSW, Victoria and Qld are doing the same thing.
Not much I can do about people giving answers to polling companies I’m afraid.
All those who think that the Liberals are going to get in government in the states any time soon are quite mistaken, at least that is the case in NSW. While I think NSW Labor is atrocious, they are NOT worse than the NSW Liberals who have become a party dominated by fundamentalists and members of the HR Nicholls Society. They would royally screw this state, and as it is, Labor has made a pretty good job of it. It really is a case of the lesser of two evils. I can say with increasing confidence that there is no way on God’s good green Earth that I will EVER vote for either party at the state level.
au contraire, Derek, everyobody I know except my mother wants Labor to win 150 seats – and even she’s wavering. I would love Possum’s calculations to be true. I just don’t believe they are.
Have the Libs found a new ‘champion’ to replace Glen? Running this hoary old line that Labor Governments are necessarily spendthrift. The sheer scale of the Feds advertising spend alone is just obscene.
What great ads they have been, saying things like ‘protected by law’ during the SerfChoices rollout, with a nice big red stamp, designed to fool many trusting non-English speakers and a proportion of Anglo mugs.
Howard must have read 1984 and Animal Farm many times to come so close to replicating the Ministry of Truth and Snowball. Or is it the Prince he prefers for his bedtime reading? Machiavelli had nothing on the Right Honourable Rodent.
But back to the point….
I’d like to see the figures on Federal Government spending for the last 11 years, especially the expansion in Ministerial staff numbers and the payments made to various classes of consultants, if we want to talk about Government waste and mismanagement.
What about that elephant in the corner known as ‘defence’ spending? Billions of dollars paid for equipment that doesn’t work, including the scandal of the Collins class submarines.
The mining boom proceeds in the form of much higher Federal revenue have basically been p…d up against the wall via tax cuts and selective pork barrelling of outrageous proportions ( and not merely in election campaigns), with things like the $3 billion dollar subsidy for private health insurance to name just one instance of ‘middle class welfare’ being used to shore up votes from particular groups, if not outright buy them!
But fear not, Captain Smirk appears to have discovered some money for the Pacific Highway in particular, just in time for the election!
Private wealth and public squalor, just as JK Galbraith said all those years ago.
All the tax cuts have done is forced the Reserve Bank to maintain almost the highest real interest rates in the Western World, contributing to the housing affordability crisis ( or is this just a mirage?). Higher interest rates have no doubt sent quite a few small businesses to the wall, with increasing bankruptcy rates for personal and business borrowers.
And this is prosperity! I wonder what recession would look like? Can the non-bank financial intermediaries in Australia really stand up to a US recession?
At least A-C seems to acknowledge that the Coalition’s advert spend in this phoney ‘campaign’ period is obscene, or is it only so if it is done by Labor State Governments?
And won’t the world cave in and little children hide under their beds when raging ‘pinkoes’ like Kevvie gain office? Gimme a break, or ‘flog me with a warm lettuce’, as Keating so aptly put it.
Better get out in what’s left of the sunshine, see ya punters!
Possum’s calculations are a bit like my wondering what I could win if red came up on the roulette wheel for every bet for an hour or so. Just a bit of fun. Probably pointless but nevertheless harmless.
Er, what be donning “brown trousers” on election night? Is this an arcane pepys-type reference to some-long forgotten ritual hitherto lost in the mists of time. Sounds embarrassing.
There’s always going to be seats that move with the broader swing in any seat category, but that just means other seats in the same category will have to swing more to take the weight.
Wentworth is a good example – I dont think Turnbull will lose Wentworth (unless the Green vote is high), and the swing in Wentworth will be less than the average marginal seat swing – but that just means other marginals (like Parramatta) will swing more to carry the weight that gives us the “average marginal swing”.
Victoria is the State though where whacky things have been happening over the last 3 months.The ALP primary and TPP keeps growing, not dropping slightly or flattening out, but growing.
Oops, first line should read:
“There’s always going to be seats that move less than the broader swing in any seat category”
Paul K you exactly right regarding dams but i must add that the other alternative is also stupid- desalination plants the use excessive energy and are costly.. They are not a solution and all the state governments are building them, crazy stuff.. Instead as you say water tanks should be installed and the state governments should use the money from building desalination plants and give it to people to install water tanks.. Additionally recycling should be adopted and greater use of stormwater runoff.
But the State Governments are more concerned with ensuring they stay in power and collecting revenue from water instead of the logical and better for all of us solution… Soon governments regarding Climate Change will have to make some hard decisions, as currently we have the Coalition not recognising climate change as a problem and Labor recognising it but just talking about it.
What we must realise is that the Carbon Dioxide that has already been collected will stay in the atmosphere for another eighty years so no matter what changes we do now their will be little impact.. and this is only up to today meaning as we keep pumping it into the atmosphere the worse it will get… We need action now simply and i’m afraid it isn’t happening.
As India is to build 100 new coal fired power stations, and America has plans for over 150, and in Victoria we are the largest emitter of Greenhouse gases on a per capita basis in the world.
Whilst the Arctic rapidly melts, sealevels rise and rain decreases.. And our politicians come up with yep we recognise it solutions…
Hate to be alarmist and depress everyone but i think it is to late to reverse our extinction.
I remember the days when the far left stood for revolutionary optimism. Now they stand (like Marky) for apocalyptic pessimism.
Read Tim Flannerys’ book Adam that is if you can read.
Adam. Mine was a cheap shot. Please tell your mum that Derek says you are a good boy and it would be nice if she made you happy.
My mum was solid Country Party, to the last. Godless communists and all that.
I have been reading Possums overview of Newspoll, now I understand Adam questioning the Victorian poll numbers on the grounds that certain areas like Higgins haven voted ALP before.
I believe in Victoria all Govt seats under 10% are at risk of falling except for Higgins and Dunkley.
At the last election several things occurred (Latham, Interest Rates and Citylink saw large swings towards the Liberal Party taking seats well beyond there average margin example between 1984 and 2001 Dunkley had never swung by more than 1.9% yet in 04 swung by 4%.
At this point of time its important to remember a few things about Victoria, it is a Conservative state which doesn’t normally swing to the extent of the NSWs and Queenslanders.
I think we can presume that the ALP will hold all its 20 seats and will see swings towards the ALP, I think I read a poll the other day with the ALP leading in La Trobe with about 56 if this is right then that’s a 12 percent swing, if that is on in La Trobe I see no reason to think a similar swing isn’t on in Aston or Casey they are very similar.
Closer to Melbourne, if Melbourne Ports votes ALP then Goldstein and Higgins which are very similar seats cannot be discounted, I suspect Costello will hold Higgins but Goldstein may swing for in Melbourne there are two very distinct areas the Sand belt and the Clay belt the evidence shows the Clay belt is moving towards the ALP (Aston, Deakin, Lt Trobe & Casey) then maybe so is the sand belt.
People say o discount Goldstein and Kooyong but lets recap what is driving the polls, this Election the Liberal Party is running on a platform that Menzies would never have run, Rudd is the most Small l Liberal leader in a long time, the State ALP government have shown that the ALP can manage an economy and there are many people on $30,000-$60,000 whom are seriously peeved off with Howard on several issues from rental / home affordability, Iraq and add to this Workchoices all up Howard has removed the Liberal Party from its core heartland and just as Keating found in 1996 you can’t do that.
The ALP also have preselected several very candidates and up til now have out campaigned the Liberals.
Marky, there is nothing new under the sun. 35 years ago I read Gordon Rattray Taylor’s book The Doomsday Book: Can the World Survive? which confidently predicted a new ice age within our lifetimes, for reasons I now can’t remember. People have been predicting the end of the world all through human history. Climate change is a serious challenge but not beyond human ingenuity to solve. All it requires is some political will. Vote 1 Rudd for Rain.
I sent this to News.Com, anybody else feel this maybe the reason for media bias?
News com must be asleep on the job, that would be a good explanation, but unfortunately the truth is the media organisation is extremely bias in its political reporting in favour of John Howard, it must be because of the millions of dollars from the advertising gravy train coming from this government.
Because if labour gets into power your revenue and other media organisations revenue from advertising will go down, isn’t this a conflict of interest? your interest over the interests of the general public
To prove the bias newspoll shows 1% swing to Howard and its “Howard claws his way back“, the latest Morgan poll 28/9/07 is released showing a swing to labour of 4% 60.5% Labour to 39.5% LNP 2PP and nothing not even reported in one media organisation?
Please why don’t we have a royal commission into the bias of the media, it will prove it is due to the revenue flowing from the federal government, which will stop if the Liberals lose government.
Derek,
By donning the brown trousers, one cannot see the accident that one has made in ones pants. To put it nicely.
I feel the Herald Sun is bias, if anything it’s being increasly negative toward the Liberals of late.
Come off it, Marky. Argue the point, not the man. (Sums up this election, to an extent).
I meant the Herald Sun isn’t bias
As was shown on the insiders this morning, statistically it rains a lot more when Labor are in office federally.
So the answer to the drought is easy, vote Labor. This argument is just as valid as interest rates being lower under the libs.
I don’t disagree with you that Labor would be better on the environment than the current dills… but climate change is totally different than all other challenges.. it is about whining people away from current lifestyles that they are living.. .and for some reason you seem to think that we suddenly will invent i dream of jeannie stuff and poof and its gone.. i am afraid with carbon dioxide it is not the case, this gas stays in the atmosphere and does not magically dissappear but of course i am some hard left lunatic who talks nonsense… The usual line of people who don’t like seeing Economic growth threatened, but of course what does come first the economy or the planet… and yep 35 years ago.. the arctic wasn’t melting and sea levels weren,t rising and rain was occurring in Australia every couple of years in inland australia…but now El nino seems to happening every year…
i for one thinking back twenty years when winters here in Victoria were cold and wet.. and over the last ten years this has massively changed.. but of course scientists will suddenly solve our problems and i am talking bull because i am a hard lefty doomsdayer fair dinkum…
I like Rugby League but this is just ridiculous
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/30/2047244.htm?section=justin
I am not sure if I am more worried by the profligate waste of money or that this is an example of the desperate and petty nature of the current pre-election campaign. I think you Mexicans should really be upset.
I do not understand how the huge swing in vic is being calculated
Is it really the case that the vic swing is so huge……..
eg it predicts Wannon to be won……. last won by labor in 1954
the year before I was born……. can possum pls explain
I understand if 8% across the board occurred then 12% is possible
in the right circs….but this magnification in vic does not make sense
Oakshott spot on..
But must say i loved Tandberg’s cartoon in yesterdays Age newspaper.. As the Geelong team went by crowds clapped but as Howard and Rudd passed not a sole was present…
This is how people here think i am afraid, sport comes before everything else…
With swings this big on, some ‘unthinkable’ coalition seats will fall.
I want to know where I can get good odds on 100 seats for the ALP. Id whack $10 on.
Think they’ll be about 5-10 short, but worth a Mary Gilmore.
Machiavelli had nothing on the Right Honourable Rodent.
Bazthespaz 859
Machiavelli is a much and unfairly maligned political philosopher. If you read his work he explicitly and repeatedly states that, while he recognises the necessity of hard choices for political leaders, his main aim was to minimise the amount of ‘evil’ that these leaders need to do in order to maximise the general good. He was actually a utilitarian long before Bentham.
Comparing Machiavelli to Howard is an insult to Machiavelli and his ideas.
The Herald-Sun is biased but it, like Rupert, goes for winners. If its readers want Rudd, back Rudd. It likes to cover its read end. It has to keep some sort of faith with its readers after misleading them for the past 11 years or so.
#
865
Adam Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 4:33 pm
I remember the days when the far left stood for revolutionary optimism. Now they stand (like Marky) for apocalyptic pessimism.
Adam i still stand for revolutionary optimism. A grass roots revolution that has already started in the community. Be very interesting what the major parties do about it.
Well I hope you are right, Bill. If you are, then the parties, or at least one of them, will respond accordingly. It is the nature of democracy that politicians and parties respond to the will of the people in order to secure their support. If the people want radical change, the parties will give it to them.
Um, shouldn’t we be making AC Nielsen predictions about now?
I’ll go with 56 / 44.
Has anyone noticed any movement on betting markets today, suggesting the result has been leaked?
I HOPE Newspoll is another rogue, forcing the ALP to print Kevin 08 t-shirts.
Mike at 877.
The average swing in Victoria is 11% according to Newspoll.The average national swing in safe government seats is 11.6% according to Newspoll.
Victoria has 13 marginals, 14 safe government seats and 10 safe ALP seats.Because the safe government seats make up a fairly high proportion of total Victorian seats, there has to be a fairly large swing in those Victorian safe seats.If there wasnt, or at least if there wasnt a *big* swing among a good proportion of them, that would leave the marginals swinging by 15% or more (especially since you rarely get electorates where the TPP gets beyond 73/27 which cuts out a number of the safe ALP seats taking up then weight of the 11% Victorian swing).
So Victoria is simply swinging because 1000 odd Victorians (I think, although stand to be corrected) have told newspoll over the last quarter that they will vote for the ALP in such numbers that would produce an 11% swing.
I cant tell you why, and the mechanics of it (beyond the simple pendulum) are confusing me as well.That’s why I’ve been prattling on about Victoria for the last 6 weeks when I first realised what was happening down there.Swings are on, we just cant exactly pinpoint where, but we know that some government safe seats in Victoria have to be swinging by large margins greater than 12%, other less so with margins maybe only 7 or 8%, perhaps a handful with less.If that isnt actually happening, hundreds of Victorians have been telling Newspoll and other pollsters lies.
Sorry to say Bill, even though my sentiments agree with you regarding a better world.. it can only happen through either owning the media and portraying thus constantly highlighting how we should think because the media now does this.. One only has to look at the constant marketing of sport ie: Grand Final and how people actually became brain washed by it…
Or by joining one of the main parties and trying to get change within.. Of course you need a number of people to be of the same thinking… and then it comes down to trusting your fellow person…
Bill i like the approach of Hugo Chavez… Get power and then actually bring forth real change.. to the media, and the major resources that the country has.. like Oil… and then set up your own economic organisation that being get out of the clutches of the IMF and world bank who are fundamentally about economic rationalism and rich getting richer…
But i am afraid to say Bill you can only try these days and not become brain washed like most have.
marky marky says Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
“Hate to be alarmist and depress everyone but i think it is to late to reverse our extinction.”
It’s not about extinction,it’s about our economic system collapsing, an economic system that gives most in the western world a very nice living thank you very much.
Global warming or not our only problem we are going to run out of oil ( Hydrocarbons to burn).
We have 4 options
1) Carbon
2) Nuclear
3) Renewables
4) Or reduced living standards.
Option 4 is not a vote winner, leaving option 1,2 and 3 and things would move a lot faster to option 3 if the Greens stopped opposing any change for change sake.
We need to build dams for hydro power, we need to build windmill, solar, geo thermal stations and wave power stations in the the north.
Go to the Greens web page, you find a picture of a wind mill. Did we hear a peep out of them when the yellow bellied parrot was being used to stop an installation in Victoria.
Lake Pedder, loverly lake, stopping the dam was one of Bob Browns claim to fame. Net result Tasmania will not be a net exporter of power.
If handled properly renewables will be profitable ( or if you want to look at it from a socialist point of, will give excess labor something to do).
It’s a big opportunity for the greens, but I bet they don’t seize it.
The German greens came out of the clouds and are pushing their economy down a sustainable path, why can’t the Australian Greens do the same.
Instead we get them banging on about old growth forests, stopping dams, stopping windmill farms and anything else that represents doing something in another way. To top is all off they start pushing extreme positions on social issues ( things that have nothing to do with government anyway).
Marky @ 876
I do agree that we need to do more wining and dining to move people away from their present lifestyle. Like driving 4-wheel tanks in surburban areas to collect a litre of milk or deliver the off-spring to holding centres.
Charles could not agree with you more regarding your options but what i was stating is having the political will or courage to put such policies in place.
Dams i am sorry is the wrong option, they can be counter productive as they can threaten river systems and wetlands… (thus the Yangtze in China and the Euphrates in the Middle East are in the process of doing such) and if doesn’t rain how can you use hydro power…
Well said Just Me
Shorter Howard utilitarian theory: What’s good for moi is good for Australia.
Shorter shorter “Louis” Howard: L’etat C’est Moi
888
charles Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 5:34 pm
To top is all off they start pushing extreme positions on social issues ( things that have nothing to do with government anyway).
Like what? Are you going down the same line as the ALP member for Reynell that the community or government is not ready to tackle child obesity by removing junk food from tuck shops then having to change that view when the community showed it was more than ready?
Oaksshott? @ 877
This was spotted earlier here. It is bloody outrageous! Howard is really scraping the bottom of the barrel. Deserves full-on odium and contempt.
Did anyone dare plough through the GG Magazine’s ode to Howard, or were they put off by Dear Leader’s grinning visage on the front cover?
I managed the last page of the article, which essentially recycled GG talking points of the last week:
- Sol’s “don’t trust the polls” mantra – although he did concede that Howard has never been this far behind. Sol had a longer column in the dead tree version of the news proper, not sure if it made it online.
- Howard’s been energized from the last week of parliament, and is never better than when his back is against the wall.
- Breakout quotes of him saying that he knows some people despise him and that they transfer disagreement of his policies to him personally.
- Comparisons with George Bush, another misunderestimated underdog who got re-elected with an increased vote twice, along with glowing endorsement by Dubya made at APEC. Kackie Jelly reckoning that Howard will retain Bennelong and win, and that she quit because she just couldn’t see Howard losing at the time
Looks like a combination of “rallying the base” dog whistles (e.g. reference to Howard haters) and the in-house GG sycophancy we’ve come to love.
I acknowledge it’s irritating to comment on stuff I haven’t actually read in full, but I just can’t bear to deeply read political commentary in this paper anymore – even though I’m only 35 I can feel it doing bad things to my blood pressure.
I wonder if the GG’s inner sanctum has the scoop on the date being announced next weekend, and they’ve gotten an early puff piece in with exclusive access to the man himself?
The Greens will have a massive increase in votes in coming elections as the Major parties try to grapple with climate change while pandering to the capitalist system. This system is the cause of climate change with the push of consumerism to the point that most products are obsolete within 12 months. People will have to change how they live and that is not popular but like i said before the mood of small parts of the community is that we need a new direction and this will grow as the major parties fail to stop or slow down climate change. I dont think it doomsday yet but if it is not done right then we will get to the point of no return with such things as positive feedback mechanisms coming into play that will be never ending.
Bill ask yourself who has the power in this country…
It is the media and the media quite simply supports capitalism and the two major parties and this will not change… Climate Change will make some people vote Greens but i am afraid people are apathetic and stupid and will go with how groups like the media think.. .Bill whilst i hope you are right somewhat i for one don’t see it…
And Bill our political parties are not just going to introduce fundamental changes.. quite simply they have not got the guts… Water illustrates my point desalination plants… a quick fix… If anything affects us all Bill it will be debt because this is out of control in Australia at the moment and when a downturn happens if that is because the resources boom will last a while yet it will be very bad…
Climate Change i agree is the one issue but so to is economics and this is what the greens should concentrate on also.
Bill
I doubt very much that the Greens vote will increase for the lower house, in fact they will probably get less. This will be a polarised election between King John and Emperor Kevin.
The Greens will get a higher senate vote at the expense of the coalition as people try to put balance back.
A “massive increase” is off with the pixies stuff.
I think you may be right Bill.I have 5 elderly aunts who are usually strong Howard voters,but at a family BBQ all five of’em are solid in their votes for the greens.The Greens may well poll very well in the Senate as an alternative to the major parties.
Venezuela: a socialist worker’s paradise with an economy which would disintegrate if it didn’t have oil to sell to the Great Satan USA. Your hero Chavez talks a lot but that’s about all he does.
I think the Greens’ best hope is for Rudd to win this election, but face a hostile Senate. The Greens could then make some serious progress in the event of a DD election. Also, it’s worth the Greens persisting in their attempts to win lower house seats (at a State level) where the Coalition can’t be bothered providing any opposition candidates.
Possum Comitatus: Says Victorians are confusing.
I was flippant last time ( If the liberals retain one seat and the swing is even it would be Murray) , I will have a serious try this time.
You only have three pieces of data, the national marginal swing, non marginal swing labor and liberal.
The trouble with Victoria is our margin distributions are totally different to any other state. We have the safest liberal seat, the safest national seat, 9 seats that would fall to the liberals if there was a 4.8 swing to the liberals and none that will fall to the labor with the same swing to labor.
If you want to use you data in Victoria I think you need to consider your three values as points on the graph for the average of a marginal seat ( I assume around 0%) and whatever the average of non marginal seats is ( depends on the definition, I don’t know what it is)
Fit a line and then use that to guess the swings in seats of differing margins and see what you come up with.
Doing it this way would result in one predicting a bigger swing in Murray than in Kooyong.
I think it would also make the Victorian result less confusing, remembering that a lot of the Liberal safe seat responses came from Victoria because that is what we have.
So a country in which about 10 per cent of the population dominants and controls the resources, power, can go to school have adequate health care and sanitaration and other human needs is the world you like Paul K?
Hugo is now after many many years finally providing health care to the poor and education and at least doing something for the people of his country.
Is that not the type of world we should have…
Or perhaps i country like America where the poor don’t get adequate healthcare unless they have a fat wallet… is a better world for you
Do these include the bits where he intends to make himself leader for life, to make the country undemocratic and to cancel the licences of TV stations that disagree with his views.
Chavez is a big disappointment – another leftist leader who believes that the people are so important that they can’t be trusted.
New thread open, so I’m finally putting this one to bed.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com