Today’s Roy Morgan poll suggests that voters have, er, reacted sympathetically to Kevin Rudd’s tax gaffe. Or perhaps been driven insane by the onslaught of government advertising on television. Either way, they’ve published a headline figure of 54 per cent for Labor’s primary vote, which seems to have been enough to have caused their server to crash. More details as they come to hand.
UPDATE: Crikey email reports a two-party split of 60.5-39.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 39.5 per cent to 36 per cent (for those interested, the Nationals vote is down from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent). Labor’s primary vote in the previous survey was 49.5 per cent. This was a face-to-face survey with a sample of 972.
904 Comments
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“Er, no. The libs and their lackeys will be busily shredding, cleaning computer hard drives, cleaning out cupboards, looking under desks … after 11 or so years, there’s a lot of crap lying around. They will clear it.”
I hear what you are saying, and it does not surprise me at all. But surely there will be contracts, letters, at least some things that can’t be shredded because they are inextricably linked to a deal or something that goes beyond the life of a government term. Then again, now that I think about it, yeah, maybe they would try to destroy ANYTHING that is politically damaging, even if it created massive bureaucratic black holes.
Perhaps I am assuming at least some degree of moral behaviour where in fact there is none. {gets a little depressed}
Michael Proud #684:
“He is joking with Dave Hughes on the theme of “last day in September†and refers to “last day in Novemberâ€.
No issue – no arrogance – little humour.”
My point exactly: what right has Costello to joke about something so serious? The man’s a cretin. He’s playing around with an issue that is on millions of minds at the moment.
Total arrogance.
Chris B @ 691
Point taken, Chris.
However, if Labor is elected it will have a job to do and should not be involved in petty political point-scoring – that’s the stuff of election campaigns.
Newspoll Tuesday? Have consulted the Oracle and, not being fluent in Sanscrit, managed to gain the following, fractured forecast: “Winds light to variable, but maybe change with fresh air blowing away … and dat be dat.”
687 Julie, Victoria has a fixed election date.
Primary voting intention monthly averages of the polls are up here:
http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=54&Itemid=1
I’ve also written a brief article on a hypothetical spending spree by the Coalition, here:
http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=57&Itemid=1
Noocat @ 701
Yes, Noocat. Massive black holes. Do not assume moral, ethical behaviour. Sad but true. Keep nit for big shredding trucks.
Someone asked who Twinza Oil is……………………………………………………
http://www.myanmar.com/myanmartimes/MyanmarTimes18-343/b001.htm
Perhaps Gordon Brown will go to the polls before the Rodent?
However, I think Gordy will hold off until April 2008 – he’s a cautious fellow.
Rumour is that more Conservative MPs are about to jump ship to the Labour Party – in the UK.
I watched barely any of the AFL Grand Final. Because the Swans weren’t involved, there wasn’t much interest in Sydney.
The Rodent is more of an NRL fan. I think you’ll find him presenting the trophy tomorrow night, like usual. I presume the Ruddster likes his Rugby League too, coming from QLD.
Re 704,
“687 Julie, Victoria has a fixed election date.”
(I knew this) So meaning, Gary, that calling early elections isn’t possible? If that being the case, I wouldn’t want Federal elections to go to fixed terms. I don’t like that flexibility being removed from the system.
I have said this elsewhere but Costello does not trust Howard. Costello may suspect that Howards is only interested in his own record and may keep delaying the election, Hyacinth will not want to miss the fireworks from Kirribilli, but that would mean Costello inheriting a graveyard. Costello is trying to force JWH to announce the election.
Red Wombat
Thanks for that link.
Will be interesting to see what reception he gets up here in Sydney. It is the heartland of the NRL that is also the high stress mortgage belt at the moment here in Sydney. Reports I have heard are homes being forced back onto the market after only 6 to 9 months in some cases because of rising interest rates …..
Costello let the cat out of the bag about Election Date on news tonight.
The Munz
” … Costello does not trust Howard …”
Nobody trusts Howard.
Twinza Oil is a subdidiary of Clough Engineering Group whose boss Harold William Clough is involved in the HR Nicholls Society, Bunnings and other mobs.
This link may show a bit more about this company and its ties with Burma.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/world/sanctions-dont-work-says-investor-with-liberal-ties/2007/09/28/1190486566962.html
Elections can be called early in Victoria if (a) the government is defeated in the Assembly or (b) legislation is blocked in the Council. The exact circumstances are set out in the Act. Barring these events, elections occur on a fixed date after four years. Labor policy is to apply this nationally. Fixed terms would not require a referendum, but four-year terms would.
Fred, gidday
Apart from the moral and ethical considerations in dealing with this odious regime, has the company breached any local or international law?
What, again, are its links to the Liberal Party?
btw
anyone remember a certain D hicks
come december he will be free to speak
oopsy
#703 Derek Corbett. No political point scoring, but corruption issue might be a different thing.
Quote by Paul McDermott on “The Sideshow” tonight.
“John Howard announced a 15% target of renewable energy by 2020, the Australian electorate have forecast a 0% target of John Howard by 2008″
Classic stuff
Let’s hope his comments are less obnoxious than his last effort.
“But surely there will be contracts, letters, at least some things that can’t be shredded because they are inextricably linked to a deal or something that goes beyond the life of a government term.”
I would assume that, upon a change of Govt., there is going to be some significant information coming out in relation to a range of issues – I would guess: the preparation for and execution of the Waterfront dispute in 1998; children overboard; and AWB, to start with.
Charlie,
AFL GF presentations used to involve politicians or Governors, but you’re right that it’s quite some time since that happened. Bob Hawke definitely presented the Cup in 1987, as it’s shown in the introduction to “On the Couch” on Fox each week (the succesful coach on that occasion is a panel member). I doubt that it’s happened since, and hostile reactions were certainly a factor.
On which subject, I guess many posters are familiar with the Whitlam gag, when he as PM accompanied Senator Ron McAuliffe (a prominent official) to a rugby league match in Brisbane. When they were introduced to the crowd, there was a (predictably) very hostile reception. Gough facetiously warned the senator afterwards: “Don’t ever bring me up here again when you’re so unpopular!”
I suspect that Rudd would have felt some obligation to tip/support Port Adelaide, as it is exclusively a workers’ team. Geelong has worker support, but it’s also the team of choice for the landed classes of western Victoria. My suspicion is that Rudd is at most marginally interested in sport, and would be relying on some-one in his office for guidance – especially with respect to Aussie Rules.
I don’t doubt Howard’s interest in the Rugby codes, but he knows very little about the Australian game. He notoriously offered congratulations to Tony Lockett on becoming the highest points-scorer in the VFL/AFL. While it’s mathematically true that he’d totalled more points than anyone else, the objective is to score goals, which Lockett accomplished better than anyone else.
Gusface, Terry Hicks lives two streets from me, a very nice man, David was a stupid idiot more than a terrorist and easily impressed, he never grew up and thought things through, i bet he does now though, ive heard he’s terrified that if he talks that Bush can ask for him back and i truly believe he was tortured and Howard knew, David trusts nobody and is content to just stay in his cell with his books so ive been told.it certainly wouldnt worry me if he shifted next door theres far worse than him around like Von Einam for instance– saying that Rann has promised he’ll be carried out of jail in a box.
Howard tried to foist himself on us to open the olympics remember, he only backed down after an uproar, he really fancies himself at any sporting event.
I have still not seen any evidence that Hicks has renounced, repudiated or apologised for his anti-democratic, anti-semitic views, as quoted by his own father from his letters on the ABC, or for his criminal actions in training with terrorist organisations in Afghanistan, which again he has never denied. If he does so, he should in my opinion be forgiven, although kept under surveillance. If he has not done so, he can stay in jail as far as I am concerned. And if people on the left think that the Hicks issue can do Howard any harm in the election, they are very wrong. Howard would just LOVE Hicks to be freed before the election and to start spouting his bile again – that would play right into Howard’s hands. Just because the floating voters have been driven back to Labor by WorkChoices and interest rates does NOT mean that they have changed their minds about the issues on which they supported Howard in 2001, so be warned.
Chris B @ 720
True, but only if it goes to good governance. Any new government, I reckon, has to swab the benches and get on with the bloody job. It would be nice to settle a few old scores and thrust the knife deeper, however, that task is probably best left to historians. The truth will always emerge, in some form or another.
Adam, Hicks has apologised via Terry, and ive been told he’s terrified of anyone not family, he’s not the same brash extremely immature individual who went overseas, i’m not sticking up for him but from what ive been told he will come out of gaol and fade into obscurity, there wont be any bile or bravado, he wants a new hermit like existance and he just wants to be left alone, his spirit has been broken with torture and he’s only comfortable with his own company, as i said in my previous blog theres far more dangerous people about, ive recieved some of my info from Yatala guards and my journo pal.
where has his apology been published?
Sure, but I don’t think this is a reason to lock someone up without charge for 3 or 4 years. Keeping him locked up without charge just demonstrated how flimsy the evidence was against him, hence his sentence was 5 years suspended to 9 months. The time he spent in prison without charge didn’t even count as part of his sentence. If Hicks is such a dangerous terrorist, why was he sentenced to only 9 months in prison? I am not saying Hicks was some innocent bystander. What I am saying is he is not a terrorist mastermind, he may not be the lowest rung on the ladder, but he is pretty close to it.
Well, I don’t think he should be kept in jail any longer than December. He plead guilty, and received a sentence. After he serves that sentence he should be freed. Well, unless there is new evidence to charge him with other crimes, but the evidence against him was always flimsy, hence the U.S. government let him plead guilty to lesser charges.
He was detained to prevent him resuming his career as a terrorist, not because he had been convicted of an offence. If the competent authorities now believe he is no longer a risk of doing that, he can be released. Afghanistan was a war zone, not a crime scene. He’s very lucky to have been released at all. Prisoners of war are not usually released until the war is over.
Opinions on how senior Hicks was in the al-Qaida hierarchy vary. This is information to which neither you nor I have access so there’s not much point in speculating about it, except to say that a committed jihadi of European appearance and with perfect English was a very important asset to al-Qaida, as they obviously recognised by the privileged way he was treated.
Adam it’s been in several newspapers and stories over time, his dad has passed on his apologies, as i said it wouldnt worry me if he was living next door though from what ive heard he will go live in the country, ive met Terry a couple of times but never pumped him over David and i cant recall ever having met David himself, i rely on my information from prison guards {ive a couple of contacts there} a senior cop pal and my journo friend, who by the way has no sympathy for David but does grudgingly admit he wont be much of a threat to anyone, but hey Adam i’m a bleeding heart who is anti the death penalty as well lol.
Chris B
Just to finish this. The Howard Government’s complete politicisation of the once-proud public service has left us with partisan operatives dedicated to covering their respective ends. They know where the skellies are and will, no doubt, steal into the crypt in the dead of night and remove offending objects.
Went to the Chinese Moon festival show tonight – got accosted by a mainland Chinese guy now living in Australia telling me how unfair WorkChoices is.
Hell, adam I’m against torturing someone, even if they’re anti semitic.
As for being a “prisoner of war”, I thought the entire farcical (if you weren’t Hicks) exercise was carried on because he wasn’t subject to the conditions that civilised nations treat POW’s.
I think liberal democratic countries can do better than this. I don’t think people should be detained because there is a concern they may commit a criminal offence. People should be sentenced as punishment for commiting criminal offences.
If that means legislation to create new criminal offences, then that is OK, provided it is done in a logical manner by well thought out legislation, subject to judicial review. But I don’t think prisons should be used to house people without charge, without any chance of judicial review, just because one suspects someone may do something wrong.
Why is now any different to 2002 or 2003? If someone wants to commit a terrorist act, I’m pretty sure they will find a way to do it. Again, I don’t think locking people up as a precautionary measure makes much sense. It certainly doesn’t make sense to do it for 3 or 4 years.
If Hicks was a serious threat, he would currently be in the 4th or 5th year of a 20 or 30 year prison sentence. But he isn’t, because the U.S. and Australian governments know he isn’t a serious threat to anyone. If he was such a terrorist mastermind, why would we even want him back in Australia? He could’ve served out his sentence in Guantanimo.
Are you sure? One of the charges against him was attempted murder, which is a criminal charge. It was thrown out by the judge because there wasn’t enough evidence.
Plus, I don’t agree with the Bush doctrine that executive power under the U.S. system is whatever the executive says it is. I think U.S. democracy is better than that kind of Nixonian crap.
The U.S. obviously don’t think he was very high, else they wouldn’t of agreed to sending him to prison for just 9 months. Remember, all that time he was detained without charge doesn’t count as part of his sentence.
unfortunately i dont think Rudd will follow through delving into the coalition’s dodgy dealings, though i think it’s imperative he does re the nuclear deals made under the lap.
Judy (738) – I don’t think Rudd would go on any sort of witch hunt, but a change of government would loosen the archives, and we can expect to see any number of stories regarding the Howard government’s nefarious double dealings. A loss for the Libs, especially one of the magnitude that seems to be apparent, would send them into disarray, and they would be at genuine risk of descending into infighting and recrimination. In such an atmosphere, the drip, drip, drip of the misdeeds of the former administration would only add to that mix.
This is all very off-topic so I won’t pursue this matter further here. Just don’t expect a Rudd government to be any less rigorous in its application of the anti-terrorist laws than Howard has been. That includes the “control order” mechanism, which in its most severe form amounts to preventive detention. That will be used when deemed necessary on the advice of the security agencies.
Hicks was a no-body ” in the al-Qaida hierarchy “. I’m not trying to stand up for him and I don’t care if they use control orders when he gets out but I think exaggerating his importance is absurd. He was a foot soldier who did guard duty. I think this treating every suspected terrorist as if they are supermen with extraordinary powers doesn’t do anyone any good. We’re now told he was a great asset because ” of European appearance and with perfect English “. Please. What next. He has X-Ray vision?
Well, um, I hope they won’t politicise the AFP, and migration issues the way Ruddock and Andrews did during the Haneef affair. Only thanks to The Australian and Haneef’s lawyers do we know that Andrews took chat room conversations completely out of context to try and create suspicion.
I am looking forward to McLelland in foreign affairs, with big involvement by Rudd of course, but also people like Mike Kelly, Peter Tinley and Rodney Cocks would be great additions to caucus for the purpose of national security. Hopefully it is like the 80s when Labor had a far better national security team than the Liberals.
Adam I am extremely surprised that someone as smart as you would make a number of very serious mistakes of fact in this thread re David Hicks:
#1 He is not a prisoner of war – he was sold to the US military by the Northern Alliance – not captured by the US on the ‘battlefield’.
#2 Afghanistan is not a war zone – there is no declared war being waged between nations. Do you mean to say that you agree with this ‘war on terror’ bullshit? If someone commits acts of terrorism then they are a criminal and should be charged with and tried for their crimes.
#3 David Hicks has not committed any real crimes against either the United States or Australia and to my knowledge training with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan was not a crime there, either. John Howard has pretty much acknowledged that Hicks could not be charged under criminal law in the US or Australia. The charges brought against him under the military commission system at Guantanamo Bay were constructed under retrospective legislation passed by the former Republican Congressional majority which sanctioned a trial lacking most features of fairness accorded to US citizens charged in the US or Australian charged in Australia. Everyone is clear that David Hicks pleaded guilty to get out of the Guantanamo hellhole where there is evidence of torture having occurred.
I am astonished that you should so lightly talk about ‘competent authorities’ deciding whether he is a threat and should be detained or released. I have not previously heard anything about Hicks being anti-semitic. You seem to be saying that he should stay in jail if he has not “renounced, repudiated or apologised for his anti-democratic, anti-semitic views”. I find it hard to believe that you are serious. Let me assure you that I will be vociferous in protesting when you are detained without access to lawyers or courts by the ‘competent authorities’, but I no longer have any illusion that you would do the same for me.
As for the impact on the election, which I suppose makes this relevant to the thread topic, I personally know of people in previously safe Liberal seats on Sydney’s North Shore who will be voting against the Libs for the first time because of David Hicks’ treatment, together with Tampa, children overboard etc etc.
Re politicising (horrible word) the PS. I don’t know how you could can quickly reverse it without some sort of “äffirmative action”.. which IMO is just perpetuating the disease.
Although first Hawke/Keating & then Howard consciously accelerated the trend, if you have a long term govt, then bureaucrats of a world view acceptable to the govt will tend to rise to the top (eg John Stone). There are very few Nugget Combes around.
What is more objectionable, and more easily fixed, is the proliferation of political advisers and aides on the public payroll. The evil of this is the avoidance of Ministerial Responsibility.. the buck stops in the spitoon in the back room!
Well maybe Rudd & Co. can reverse this.. let’s see!
I wonder what anti Rudd/Labor clap trap Milne has for us today.
Adam i cant see Rudd condoning torture though, radio 5AA had a professor of politics on earlier and a caller tried to bring up the shredding mess from years ago in Queensland when Rudd was a public servant, she was dumped by the host, i wonder if Howard is keeping the lid on that little morsel until the election is called or whether he wants it left strictly alone because of messy national fingerprints in it.
No more David Hicks, please.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
I was thinking the same thing! Normally it is online by now (Courier Mail first, Daily Telegraph soon after).
Ok, William. No more H*cks.
Howard is getting it from all sides, sorry William that was my fault.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/telstra-slams-pillaging-pm/2007/09/29/1190486635597.html
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