Comments on: Morgan: 60.5-39.5

By: William Bowe

William Bowe — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:25:33 +0000

New thread open, so I’m finally putting this one to bed.

By: Michael Proud

Michael Proud — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:21:26 +0000

i like the approach of Hugo Chavez

Do these include the bits where he intends to make himself leader for life, to make the country undemocratic and to cancel the licences of TV stations that disagree with his views.

Chavez is a big disappointment – another leftist leader who believes that the people are so important that they can’t be trusted.

By: marky marky says

marky marky says — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:20:45 +0000

So a country in which about 10 per cent of the population dominants and controls the resources, power, can go to school have adequate health care and sanitaration and other human needs is the world you like Paul K?
Hugo is now after many many years finally providing health care to the poor and education and at least doing something for the people of his country.
Is that not the type of world we should have…
Or perhaps i country like America where the poor don’t get adequate healthcare unless they have a fat wallet… is a better world for you

By: charles

charles — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:19:13 +0000

Possum Comitatus: Says Victorians are confusing.

I was flippant last time ( If the liberals retain one seat and the swing is even it would be Murray) , I will have a serious try this time.

You only have three pieces of data, the national marginal swing, non marginal swing labor and liberal.

The trouble with Victoria is our margin distributions are totally different to any other state. We have the safest liberal seat, the safest national seat, 9 seats that would fall to the liberals if there was a 4.8 swing to the liberals and none that will fall to the labor with the same swing to labor.

If you want to use you data in Victoria I think you need to consider your three values as points on the graph for the average of a marginal seat ( I assume around 0%) and whatever the average of non marginal seats is ( depends on the definition, I don’t know what it is)

Fit a line and then use that to guess the swings in seats of differing margins and see what you come up with.

Doing it this way would result in one predicting a bigger swing in Murray than in Kooyong.

I think it would also make the Victorian result less confusing, remembering that a lot of the Liberal safe seat responses came from Victoria because that is what we have.

By: The Happy Revolutionary

The Happy Revolutionary — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:13:54 +0000

I think the Greens’ best hope is for Rudd to win this election, but face a hostile Senate. The Greens could then make some serious progress in the event of a DD election. Also, it’s worth the Greens persisting in their attempts to win lower house seats (at a State level) where the Coalition can’t be bothered providing any opposition candidates.

By: paul k

paul k — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:13:32 +0000

i like the approach of Hugo Chavez

Venezuela: a socialist worker’s paradise with an economy which would disintegrate if it didn’t have oil to sell to the Great Satan USA. Your hero Chavez talks a lot but that’s about all he does.

By: sondeo

sondeo — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:08:33 +0000

#
895
bill weller Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 5:56 pm

The Greens will have a massive increase in votes in coming elections as the Major parties try to grapple with climate change while pandering to the capitalist system. This system is the cause of climate change with the push of consumerism to the point that most products are obsolete within 12 months. People will have to change how they live and that is not popular but like i said before the mood of small parts of the community is that we need a new direction and this will grow as the major parties fail to stop or slow down climate change. I dont think it doomsday yet but if it is not done right then we will get to the point of no return with such things as positive feedback mechanisms coming into play that will be never ending.

I think you may be right Bill.I have 5 elderly aunts who are usually strong Howard voters,but at a family BBQ all five of’em are solid in their votes for the greens.The Greens may well poll very well in the Senate as an alternative to the major parties.

By: ruawake

ruawake — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:08:21 +0000

Bill

I doubt very much that the Greens vote will increase for the lower house, in fact they will probably get less. This will be a polarised election between King John and Emperor Kevin.

The Greens will get a higher senate vote at the expense of the coalition as people try to put balance back.

A “massive increase” is off with the pixies stuff.

By: marky marky says

marky marky says — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 08:06:23 +0000

Bill ask yourself who has the power in this country…
It is the media and the media quite simply supports capitalism and the two major parties and this will not change… Climate Change will make some people vote Greens but i am afraid people are apathetic and stupid and will go with how groups like the media think.. .Bill whilst i hope you are right somewhat i for one don’t see it…
And Bill our political parties are not just going to introduce fundamental changes.. quite simply they have not got the guts… Water illustrates my point desalination plants… a quick fix… If anything affects us all Bill it will be debt because this is out of control in Australia at the moment and when a downturn happens if that is because the resources boom will last a while yet it will be very bad…
Climate Change i agree is the one issue but so to is economics and this is what the greens should concentrate on also.

By: bill weller

bill weller — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 07:56:06 +0000

The Greens will have a massive increase in votes in coming elections as the Major parties try to grapple with climate change while pandering to the capitalist system. This system is the cause of climate change with the push of consumerism to the point that most products are obsolete within 12 months. People will have to change how they live and that is not popular but like i said before the mood of small parts of the community is that we need a new direction and this will grow as the major parties fail to stop or slow down climate change. I dont think it doomsday yet but if it is not done right then we will get to the point of no return with such things as positive feedback mechanisms coming into play that will be never ending.