• Glenn Milne identifies three election date options for the Prime Minister: “go to Yarralumla next weekend for a six-week campaign and a November 17 poll”, “wait another week after that and run to November 24”, or “let Parliament resume its scheduled sittings from October 15 to 25 then go to a December 1 poll”.
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian summarises recent reports of internal party polling thus:
There have been reports ALP polling shows Labor can win 10 seats in NSW, including the seat of Eden-Monaro, which has changed hands with government since 1972. Equally ostensibly secret polling names unlikely seats in Melbourne, such as Goldstein, falling to Labor and seats in Adelaide such as Boothby and Sturt being added to the three more marginal seats of Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, in South Australia. In the Northern Territory Solomon is assumed to be gone, as are Bass and Braddon in Tasmania … Recently the Sydney Daily Telegraph reported on its front page: “Labor is set to secure such a massive swing in NSW that the Liberals have formally surrendered all hope of winning a single new seat anywhere in this state at the federal election. As Kevin Rudd arrived in Sydney last night to base himself locally for the next three days, Labor polling shows 10 NSW seats could fall its way.” The Australian reported on its front page: “Labor is headed for a landslide victory in the crucial federal bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro, according to leaked ALP research. The polling, obtained by The Australian, found the count would not even go to preferences, with Labor candidate Mike Kelly attracting 51 per cent of the primary vote over Special Minister of State Gary Nairn on 39 per cent”. The Melbourne Herald-Sun reported ALP polling showing that Labor “has dramatically expanded the number of target seats it hopes to win, with ALP elders declaring even previously rock-solid Coalition fortresses now in play”, including Goldstein, which is held by more than 10per cent.
• Friday’s West Australian (no link available) reports “growing concern within the Liberal Party that it may lose the blue-ribbon WA seat of Forrest at the coming election – not to Labor but to an Independent with a high profile”:
Noel Brunning, a former newsreader with Prime TVs Golden West News, is believed to be picking up strong interest among the voters despite his stop-start campaign. Internal Liberal Party polling is believed to have shown that Mr Brunning, 40, has a higher recognition in southern WA than either the Liberal candidate Nola Marino or Labor’s Peter MacFarlane. Forrest is being vacated by former minister Geoff Prosser at the next election and although the margin is a comfortable 10.5 per cent, the retirement of Mr Prosser after 20 years means the contest will be much closer. Not helping the Liberals campaign is the fact that the preselectors preferred candidate, Busselton Shire councillor Philippa Reid, withdrew from the contest late last year citing concern her involvement in Corruption and Crime Commission hearings into the $330 million Canal Rocks development would damage the party. Cr Reid’s relationship with divisive former Liberal powerbroker Noel Crichton-Browne was also causing concern within the party.
• After last week’s bad Boothby opinion poll and excruciating radio interview, John Wiseman of The Australian reports that Labor “closed ranks behind its South Australian glamour candidate Nicole Cornes yesterday, scotching suggestions that she might have booted an own goal with her latest media gaffe”. It now seems I might have been too quick to dismiss the poll’s finding that Cornes was doing particularly badly among women voters. While I don’t imagine he has too many fans among this site’s readership, Andrew Bolt of the Herald Sun might have been on to something here:
I suspect it’s because they’ve never liked women who just get by on looks. It seems an insult to clever women and a threat not just to the plain. Cornes’ status as a second wife only speaks to that distrust and contempt.
• A $5 billion federal government roads package to be unveiled this week will reportedly include plans for a $2 billion upgrade of the Bruce Highway from Brisbane to Cairns, and a $1 billion upgrade of the Pacific Highway from Sydney to Brisbane. The latter is of significance to the sensitive north coast seats of Page, Cowper and Paterson, while the Bruce Highway funding targets Hinkler, Flynn, Herbert and Leichhardt. As noted this morning by Barrie Cassidy on Insiders, this has prompted newspapers in Melbourne and Adelaide to complain the southern states have been “snubbed”.
• The Griffith University’s regular VAMPIRE (“vulnerability assessment for mortgage, petrol and inflation risks and expenditure”) study has identified what the Financial Review describes as “11 marginal and fairly safe Liberal seats in which more than half of all households are facing petrol and mortgage stress”: Moreton, Bonner, Lindsay, Macquarie, Deakin, La Trobe, Wakefield, Makin, Kingston, Hasluck and Stirling.
• The last Brisbane Liberal remaining under the cloud of the “printgate” affair, Bowman MP Andrew Laming, has been cleared by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.
• The High Court has published the ruling that struck down legislation removing the right to vote from all prisoners in full-time custody.
• Having noted similar long-term trends, I thought it might be interesting to compare aggregated polling figures from Australia and New Zealand since the end of last year. New Zealand figures are a rough average of Roy Morgan and DigiPoll, Australia’s are from Reuters Poll Trend plus a September figure from Bryan Palmer.
262 Comments
Some people might agree with Bolt, but I’m not sure his comments will resonate with females. Columnists like him are looking increasingly flailing as the good ship Howard goes down. Even he has abandoned ship, and has taken to consoling himself with petty snipes and Rudd and co.
The VAMPIRE report would make for an interesting read, particularly as it flies in the face of reports that economic prosperity is apparently falling out of everybody’s pockets.
Finally, to return to this morning’s Insiders, the independents had plenty of interesting things to say. Does anybody with local knowledge believe that traditional Coalition seats in the country could actually swing to Labor in any serious way?
We should just annex New Zealand and be done with it.
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marky marky says Says:
“Dams i am sorry is the wrong option, they can be counter productive as they can threaten river systems and wetlands… (thus the Yangtze in China and the Euphrates in the Middle East are in the process of doing such) and if doesn’t rain how can you use hydro power…”
All true; but look at the options, that is what I am trying to point out.
Man has got to where he is by changing the environment, that is what we do. I like birds on our farm so I plant trees. I like money so I plant pastures.
Yes the Yangtze in Chine is going to change the environment in that area greatly, it is also going to feed a lot of people in a country that has tried to do something about it’s population growth and it’s also going to generate a lot of power.
What I can’t understand is people banging on about what is lost and completely ignoring what is being created. The dam itself is a large body of water that will create new and interesting ecological systems.
Nuclear power would be a disaster, clean coal is a joke, but from the noise we receive from the Greens they are no worse than dams, windmills or the deepening of a shipping channel.
It’s a case of crying wolf so often that when it matters most people have stopped listening.
If is so frustrating, we are facing serious challenges and the Greens aren’t capable of picking their fights.
Point 1: Labor would have a better chance of changing candidates in Boothby right now rather then stick with Cornes, and that is saying something. I live in SA, and whenever Nicole is mentioned in general conversation with people I talk to, it is with mocking & laughing tones. As I have said in a previous post, this includes hard-left Labor supporters. People just do not think she is a worthy candidate, and are insulted such a choice is being presented. The fact she is being referred to as a ‘glamour candidate’ says it all really – what’s the first thing that comes into your mind when you hear that?
Once a politican becomes an inside joke, they are generally finished. Combine this with Cornes’ past (ie social writer for the Sunday paper) and her appalling interviews, as well as the fact the ‘Tiser has a jab every few weeks…etc etc. Of course, a 10% swing to Rudd nationally might overcome that barrier, but considering
Point 2: I can’t see Howard calling the election in a fortnight (around the 14th) for two reasons. First, it would be just before MP’s are expected to be in Canberra for a sitting – would create a lot of inconvenience I imagine. And second, this is after the 8th of November, which is widely considered to be the ‘end of the governments three year term’ – a guaranteed bad press day, if not week.
Finally, thanks for the HC link PB, it is interesting stuff. Even more so that Kirby actually features in the majority judgement regarding a constitutional matter. Court must be going soft
Paul k for once i agree with you…
New Zealand is in our Constitution they should just accept the fact that they should be a State in the Commonwealth of Australia…
Noel Brunning wont win Forrest after all the Libs hold that seat with 41422 primary votes the worst Brunning can do is split the ALP vote and or One Nations vote…while he may take votes of the Libs he’d have to take an awful lot to beat the Libs there this is just a media beat up…he may have name recognition but what can an independent really offer his constituents in terms of funding/grants ect…
i still think everone is being too harsh on Nicole Cornes, the incumbent Southcott is rarely seen apparently, Nicole has been constantly door knocking and those who have met her personally seem impressed, honestly just how much effect do lowly backbenchers have? most labor voters ive spoken to have no idea who their candidate is, they’re voting for Rudd or against Howard.
RE: Forrest. Noel Brunning. What’s his platform, what’s his pitch?
Judy, I’d say the general principal is that most candidates should try and stand back a little and let themselves get elected on the back of the party vote or the leaders’ popularity.
However, in the case of Cornes, she was selected as a ‘celebrity candidate’ and to stand out from other candidates. Celebrity candidates should only be chosen if they’re going to have an immediately positive impact. As soon as they announced Cornes I knew it was a mistake.
At this stage I think the damage has been done and it’s too late to switch candidates. She just needs to get out there and door knock as many houses as she can and hope she can scrape through.
As to the comments about New Zealand on this thread, I find them too offensive to even know where to start…
I was on TV vote for me! lol
Perhaps “annex” was a little too harsh but we should merge our economies. A little Common Market of the South Pacific. There would be benefits for both countries and with something like 10% of New Zealanders having moved to Australia it would make a lot of sense.
Andrew Bolt and Max (5) are right about Nicole Cornes. As I’ve said in previous posts, I can confirm as a resident of Boothby that women who would normally vote Labor simply don’t respect her and cringe at the thought of voting for her. Not very fair, perhaps, but it’s true. If a goodish alternative candidate can be found (preferably female) and if Nicole Cornes can be persuaded to take a face-saving way out such as concerns about family, it’s not too late. The only alternative is for Cornes to go on the attack against a weak Liberal opponent who is having it all too easy at the moment and generate some respect, but she shows no sign of being capable of that.
PB – thank you for fixing my formatting, damn italic tags…
Judy, I agree with you the presidential nature of our democracy is obvious (and depressing, but that’s for another topic.) I also agree the media has been very harsh on her – had they have focussed on her past as a small business owner etc, things might have gone differently.
However, the fact is that she has brought a lot of it on herself. Or perhaps, the ALP has brought in on her by not proving enough preparation. She was ill-prepared for the candidacy, from memory she accepted the gig a mere couple of days before announcing it, and a week before actually joining the ALP. This is Adelaide, we are a bloody country town, you know as well as I do that the media here focuses on minor issues. The tone was set at her first interview, when she asked for “no hard questions please.” The population are generally pretty forgiving, but that was pretty bad.
Unfortunately, she was stereotyped from the start – a blonde social writer. She was given a fresh slate, and a glowing endorsement by the Sunday Mail… and blew it wither her performance a day later. I recall she wrote an article in the paper a week later, and it was a good one, but by then it was too late. I agree it’s a shame, as I think parliament should be made up of more diverse types rather then a bunch of 40-70 year old male lawyers, but I still think she has no chance of winning that seat.
And if you select a candidate based on their high profile (which the ALP did) then you should know that the success rides on the high profile performances which she was guaranteed to get.
Regarding New Zealand – I say we buy them out and put our nuclear waste there. At least it would serve a purpose then. Off topic much? I’ll digress.
I think NZ Labour has reached the point of the cycle where a change of leader might do them some good.
Another typo – should be ‘providing’ in paragraph two. Gah.
The GG is now out of the country and thus the trip won’t be to Yarralumla. Marie Bashir I believe is Administrator?
CTEP, your right all she can do is doorknock and do the shopping centre runs, the fact that she’s stuck it out after all the sht thrown at her shows a bit of toughness, she should avoid interviews like the plague, smelling blood they’ll be out to trip her up in any way they can, the Advertiser will have digs because though their in the same stable as the Sunday Mail there’s fierce rivalry between them and Nicole was a Sunday Mail employee {info courtesy of my journo pal}.
i dont think Milne knows any more than what we do about the election dates– he’s stabbing in the dark like the rest of us, Costello with Howards ok has been playing games with the dates he’s been dropping and the media has taken the bait both times.
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bill weller Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 5:47 pm
Like what? Are you going down the same line as the ALP member for Reynell that the community or government is not ready to tackle child obesity by removing junk food from tuck shops then having to change that view when the community showed it was more than ready?
As the government is responsible for a large part of the health budget this is clearly a government responsibility. Same can as smoking; reduce smoking, reduce the health budget.
No, I will pick a nice controversial one, Gay marriages. You can argue it is a government issue, (stable relationships are good for the health of those in the relationship) however it is an issue that people have strong views on, taking a stand one way or the other reduces your vote.
I know what the Liberal policy is and it is in the can marked things the Liberals should butt out of, I have no idea what the APL policy is ( Keating made it clear he didn’t consider two blokes and a poodle a family) and I don’t care because no one is pushing it one way or the other.
The Green’s policy on the issue was used against the Greens in the last election. It should not be like that, the Greens should be maximizing the Green vote.
Yeah, leave NZ alone. At least, it had the good sense not to join the Bush madness and sadness.
Surely if people do not like Cornes and cannot vote for her they will vote for Jodi Kirkby or Craig Bossie. If the Libs are on the nose, people will not vote for Southcott.
The rusted on Labor voters will vote for the party anyway. Then preferences will go back to Cornes.
Get over it, if the swing is on as it seems, then as I have stated before Humphrey B Bear will win Boothby for the ALP. (Yes Glen he has been on TV too
)
paul k Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 7:03 pm
New Zealand gets a mention in our constitution. They way I read it they can become a state of Australia if the so desire and there is no timeout clause.
Well, I’m female, Happy Revolutionary, and I think Bolt might be on to something. And I’m a leftie.
I didn’t know Nicole Cornes from a bar of soap before she became an ALP candidate, but frankly, she seems a bit of a nong. A pretty nong, but a nong nonetheless. If she is indeed some sportsman’s not too bright handbag and was pre-selected as result of this fame, I am not at all surprised that women aren’t too impressed by her candidature.
(Every now and then, Bolt stumbles on a truth. Like this morning, when he said that the Howard government has the feel of End of Empire.)
Let the invasion begin. Maybe that can be Howard’s rabbit out of the hat. The conquest of New Zealand. Maybe there’s too many Muslims there and we need to attack before they do?
Max i take your points — she never had a chance, she was thrown in at the deep end, apparently they were going to groom her over a couple of weeks but the news was leaked out a day after she agreed to stand.
dont anyone underestimate the the effect having cameras and mikes thrust in your face suddenly, it takes a long time to get used to that, as for journo’s, most are a bloody lot who’d sell their families for a story and are quite capable of making a saga up when needed, i wouldnt give two cents for most of them, just look at the ethics of Today Tonight or A Current Affair.
Last night i got too drunk with a mate and we got on the subject of politics. We discussed Climate Change, he said “it is the biggest issue we face”. we discusssed the Pulp Mill, “bad idea” he said. we discussed economic sustainability, he went on a drunken tyraid about its importants. He also said that Labor was too alike to the Liberals on too many issues and too conservative.
Therefore I pressumed he was a fellow Green but when i mentioned the party he said “oh No, i don’t like them, they’re extremists! I’ll vote Labor”.
This is why the Greens won’t go that well. Lots of people are more Green than Labor but stick with Labor due to ‘branding’. Labor under Rudd has a good brand, the label is whats important not the policies.
Excuse me William, but I don’t post here very often and feel that my comments are on topic and add to the general flow of a thread, but for some reason, my better posts which often take some effort and a bit of research, get binned.
If you don’t want me to contribute to the blog and read all the posts I would be thankful to be told as it is a bit upsetting. I may be being a bit precious but have been an avid supporter and am disappointed.
Max @12
Ta for that info. Seems deed is done and the party will have to live with it. Was it Mal Somebody – a sports person – who pulled out seconds into his first interview as a candidate. Malinga?
I doubt she is the only sus candidate to run in this election. Probably duds everywhere.
Lomandra, here is what i know about Cornes, she grew up in the area part of a family reared by a single mum, she had to leave school at fifteen to go to work and help with the family finances, she was working at radio 5AA as a receptionist when she met Graham her husband {a divorced football celebrity} they have two children as well as his two adult sons from his first marriage, she started a small business that she eventually sold and then went back to school to finish her high schooling and then onto uni and recently passed her law degree, with distinctions ive been told, whatever else i dont think she could be described as anyone’s handbag, if she sinks or swims will depend on how she handles the pressure she’s under now– i’m not sticking up for her but those are the facts.
I don’t know what you mean, Scorpio. When did you last make a comment that got deleted?
However i am a revolutionary optimist and not a pessimistic apocolyptian. There is a spectre haunting the industrialised world, the spectre og Greenism. Climate Change and finite resources will cause much political disterbance throughout the world. Some countries will be Faschist and give up on curtailling CO2 simply going down fighting but others will turn Green. The Greens will eventually form government. First Germany, then Tasmania, then New Zealand, then (much of) the World! The communists could not create world revolution because their support base was in impoverished nations like russia, china, vietnam, etc. whilst its the western imperialist powers which contol world affairs. However this is preciselly why the Greens will succeed where the communists failed, they are at home in the OECD nations. Earth can be saved from climate change, another world is possible. It would have been alot easier if it wasn’t for Florida 2000 (sigh, what could have been?) but so long as the planets align and do so quickly then we shall overcome!
Revolutionary Optimist (and full of $hItt) enough for you?
Possum,
Please please please let one of them be Higgins
……. B1 and B2 gone in one fell swoop ….. please pretty please 
I think at the same time as you put your last comment on the previous thread.
It was in response to Adam’s comment about Dawson etc.
I probably closed the thread a few seconds before you submitted your comment. I haven’t deleted anything today.
You can listen to her [nicole Cornes that is] be interviewed on Radio Adelaide 17th october the week after Bill Weller is interviewed.
And most SA candidates eventually.
http://radio.adelaide.edu.au/pollywaffle/index.html
Scorpio,
There are times when posts disappear due to ‘technical problems’. It’s happened several times to me. William is pretty lenient when it comes to censorship.
Shorten has started his campaign off in style.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Shorten-launches-election-campaign/2007/09/30/1191090937210.html
It’s probably too late to change candidates, and perhaps Boothby was always a long shot for Labor anyway.
I’d be interested to read some reports about Sturt. How is the Labor candidate doing against Christopher Pyne?
Ruawake @ 19
Boothby is still held by 5.4%. Yes a big enough swing might see her through, but from reports the ‘Cornes factor’ has seen a few labor supporters move to the libs, and a few wavering lib supporters hold fast. I wouldn’t dare put a number figure on that, but a lot of seats will fall before Boothby does. People don’t necessarily vote ALP because it looks like they will win, otherwise our Democracy is kinda rooted.
Judy @ 23
Ah a media leak… that does make sense. The week following the announcement was like watching a train crash in slow motion. Having said that, I could have sworn I read somewhere that the announcement was timed to coincide with Rudd being in Adelaide – did you have an ‘inside source’ so as to speak?
Derek @ 26
Dunno how many ‘dud’ candidates there are out there, but I expect the national swing will get some candidates over the line anyway. Cornes is a different story simply because she was launched as a celebrity and as such had to deal with the media. Which in some cases (ie Maxine Mckew) can be an advantage but in this case was not.
there are now reports of danger to the libs in Forrest & Grey which
would be assured of lib victories most times. also in there are serious discussions of the outcomes in seats such as Deakin and Boothby
which have been reliable lib seats.This suggests to me a change of Govt is
very likely.
Scorpio might I make a suggestion? Before ever posting something, highlight all your text in the post and copy it (Ctrl + C). Often there can be a ’server fart’ or William might close a thread etc, and if that happens you lose everything. If you’ve saved a copy, then it is easy to just try again.
A lesson I’ve learnt from countless frustrations over the years (along with saving Word documents every two minutes.)
NZ is better of separate. One of the many great reason for visiting New Zealand over the past few years has been the relief of not hearing John Howard’s voice every day on TV. It’s like a severe case of tinnitus being suddenly cured. Helen Clarke sounds so much more manly than Howard as well.
Julie i’m praying just as hard for Downer to be cast into the pit, i’m not in his seat but the thought of never having to see his smug face on telly or listen to his egotistical smarmy put downs ever again sounds like heaven, everyone knows he comes from Adelaide — what an embarrasment that he’s too thick to see everyone laughing at his born to rule attitude.
I am from his seat, he’s favourite but not home yet.
37
Mick Quinlivan Says:
Yeah, thanks for that Mick. I’m not exactly a computer wiz and when I get onto a good issue and put a lot of effort including links etc, it is a real bother to have it disappear into the ether.
I can never remember how exactly I put together a good post as they seem to come together in a form of inspiration which vanished after I hit the button.
Max yes i did have an inside leak, apparently it was intended to give her time to join the labor party and a couple of intensive weeks training ready for Rudd’s following trip over here, unfortunately after it was leaked there was no point — she was dished up the next day, they probably thought writing a column she may have done better, BUT theres a big diff writing a column and facing a barrage of cameras and questions you have no idea of what the answers are supposed to be.
the fact that she’s taken it on the chin and stuck it out shows charactor, i’d have run like a scalded cat to be honest, i lurked here for a long time before i summoned the courage to take part.
Lomandra @ 21
(Every now and then, Bolt stumbles on a truth. Like this morning, when he said that the Howard government has the feel of End of Empire.)
The Blot is loathed in my household, but you are right – he’s like a political weather vane. Subdued on Insiders, I’d say, like Akkers last week. Or was it Henderson? If operatives like these express their doubts in public, what are they being told in private?
For the record: I think Nicole will pull through.
I’ve heard Labor will be spending just $2000 odd in Mayo so not much help for that idiot Mary Brewerton.
Judy, I live in Brisbane but like you can’t stand Downer. I think there is a real chance that he will be forced to preferences – not for the first time. It will be a seat to watch at least.
Not a good source on that though
Costello is well liked in Higgins, he does things in the seat, appears often in the local media and the ALP appear to have picked a person with a poor understanding of the seat therefore Costello to hold with maybe a swing against for rent stress is a major issue in that seat, and with a large number of people on $30,000 – $60,000 looking at increasing rents and house affordability issues are ticked off with workchoices.
Howard Hater, from all reports Mia Handshin the Labor candidate for Sturt is doing very well. I have only heard positive comments about her, and from all reports the ALP really fancy their chances in this seat.
She has a very impressive resume for someone so young
http://www.miahandshinforsturt.com.au/miahandshinprofessionalresume.htm
Funny how the Laborites said Tony Abbott was trying to make political capital out of peoples suffering yet today here we have Bill Shorten who paraded about with the surviving Beaconsfield miners at his campaign launch…ever stop to think about the Family of Larry Knight…i didnt think so…once again more hypocrisy from the left but hey what do you expect i from a union scumbag.
Adam, if your still around, in response to your doubt about Labor picking up Dawson, I wish you would consider this!
Dawson was previously a Labor seat under Dr Rex Patterson for about 20 years.
Mackay has now a sizable population of fly in/fly out coal miners. In the Electorate there are also a large number of Sugar Industry workers and as well there is also a large Tourist Industry with a large number of workers on AWA’s.
Workchoices is a big issue in this electorate and I believe that the National Party will be lucky indeed to hold on to it. BTW, I lived in the Electorate for 28 years and know it well.
I really have to start proof reading posts!
Scorpio,
I usually do my posts in Word and then copy them to the comments box. That way, they never disappear – except that last week I accidentally deleted everything I have done on my computer this year and I still don’t know how. Luckily I had backed it up on to a CD…in June.
Kev, Mia is indeed an 18 carat candidate, very impressive, i think she’ll walk it in, as for Nicole, i honestly believe that when the choice is her or Howards excesses they’ll take her, worst choices and interest rates are biting deeply in parts of that seat.
Re 41,
Judy, I would dearly love to see Downer go. Frankly, after Howard, Downer is probably the worst one of the lot. However, with Downers margin, I have all but given up hope personally. I am just looking at the margins and working on up the list making the logical assumption that seats will fall in order of margins (which I know isn’t quite true). If I had to rank them in order of how I would LIKE to see them go; it would probably look something like this – 1) Howard 2) Downer 3) Abbot 4) Costello 5) Andrews 6) Hockey. I don’t have any major issues with other folks on the front bench but if all of my hit list could be booted out, it would be like all of my Christmases coming at once
:):):):)
BIG difference – Shorten would NOT have done that one day after Larry Knight died. Abbot DID do it one day after the baby died.
There has been well and truely enough time passed for the Beaconsfield miners to properly grieve the departed and move on.
No, no. We don’t want to lose Downer. Apart from the fact that he has been the most entertaining Foreign Minister we’ve ever had, if he hangs around after the election he is likely to become the Shadow Treasurer and that will be just too funny for words.
Charles sez:
Are your serious? You don’t seem to have a clue – or even know something as simple as the name of the dam project. The Three Gorges Dam is already far from being “interesting” – the chief engineer has been recently quoted on the BBC as having admitted that the dam is an environmental disaster. see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_gorges_dam#Criticism for starters
There is also a burgeoning movement to remove dams from certain rivers in North America
As a New Zealander, I note that the political (a)symmetries between my country and Australia are eerie. Since November 1990 (with the exception of the March 1996 – December 1999) whenever Labour has been in power in New Zealand the Coalition has been in power in Australia.
Currently both the Howard Coalition government in Australia and the Clark Labour government in New Zealand are trailing the main opposition party by double digits.
Both the Opposition Leaders (Rudd in Australia and Key in NZ) are making themselves and their parties as small a target as possible in time for the next election. In Key’s case this has meant doing frantically flip-flopping on a wide-range of issues (such as climate change, race relations, the KiwiSaver superannuation scheme) to match Labour. The major difference between the parties appears to be that National is willing to offer across-the -board tax cuts while Labour prefers the targeted “Working for Families” scheme for lower to middle income families with dependent children.
Like Rudd, Key is also reaping the rewards not just with the opposition leading the government in polls but was also for a time ahead of Clark in at least half the Preferred Prime Minister polls.
Like the Coalition in Australia, Labour in NZ has also been in the dog-box in the opinion polls. However Labour in New Zealand still has a year to go until the next election while the Coalition has only a couple of months. Also Clark is now again ahead as Preferred Prime Minister in all the opinion polls.
In addition unlike Australia New Zealand’s lower House is elected under a truly proportional system – Mixed Member Proportional. In theory under such a system, Labour’s vote can be as much as 5% behind National, but it can still form a coalition government with the help of the Greens – who are the only minor party in the last 2 years who have consistently polled above 5% in the polls. Since 2005 Labour (and one Progressive MP) have been in a quasi-coalition with two centrist parties (NZ First and United) but these parties have plummeted in support to well below 5%.
Even if Labour and the Greens do not quite get a majority in 2008, they may be helped by the Maori party (which currently have 4 seats and may win up to 7 seats in 2008) who can abstain on votes of confidence thereby giving Labour and the Greens the edge in the House.
However I think the more likely outcome for the 2008 election is that National will gain slightly more votes (and thus seats) than Labour (including the Progressive MP) and the Greens combined. National will go into coalition with the right-wing ACT party and the centrist United party (both of which will be reduced to 1 MP each – their leaders). NZ First will be wiped out. The only other party left would be the Maori party – which will hold the balance of power. The Maori party will probably continue to abstain on votes of confidence thereby guaranteeing a minority National-ACT-United coalition government.
So by this time next year there may well be a majority federal Labor government led by Kevin Rudd in Australia, and a minority National-ACT-United Future government led by John Key in New Zealand.
The Worst of Perth
Traitor! That’s right, shoot through.
You are right, though. We have been plagued for the past 11 years or so with Howard’s whine. He comments on everything, even when it’s none of his business. He’s everywhere.
But Julie i remember Shorten making himself so so so available for the media down at Beaconsfiled to boost his profile after just being announced as the Candidate he has exploited that tragedy either way…you cant help but feel cynical when just after being preselected up pops Shorten at a mining disaster…
Kiwi while the New Zealand election isnt for some time yet…if the polls are anything to go by Key will have a larger majority than Rudd if he wins by a landslide…
I don’t believe it. Glen saying that polls might be worth noticing!
Julie we can only pray, i met the ahem gentleman a couple of times, i was waiting for him to shoo me away lol– but i beat him to it, i did get a limp wristed wave as i edged away last time, it was at the opening of a lawyer pal’s new chambers and if Downer noticed me at all he was probably wondering what a decidedly overweight old dear was doing there, over the years ive actually had some close ties with labor state pollies– i respect them much more but then i’m biased.
Molotov if your in Downers seat you have my deepest sympathy.
this link about Howard has some ipsos poll numbers in it.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pm-avoids-election-talk/2007/09/30/1191090938279.html
Judy,
I live in NSW. I am in Werriwa, seat made famous by Whitlam and more recently, infamous by Latham. Very safe Labor here
.
Thanks Judy, there are many decent people here too though. Anyway KIWI whats the Maori Party like?
Julie what was the by-election like quickly?
Looks good for Melbourne in the GF.
Looking forward to seeing Howard introduced on the podium.
Hope the crowd give it to him good and proper.
Unless he chickens out.
Is Rudd’s call to have ministers apointed by him rather than by caucus a way of undermining the left faction so that instead of ‘left’ having very little power they have absolutly ‘Zero’ power and therefore moving Labor even further to the right?
Julie @ 56
“Downer is probably the worst one of the lot.”
After Howard, Ruddock must rank as Number 2, if long-term damage to legal institutions is considered. And the rest. Refugees, etc.
Downer at 3.
paul k Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 8:32 pm
No, no. We don’t want to lose Downer. Apart from the fact that he has been the most entertaining Foreign Minister we’ve ever had, if he hangs around after the election he is likely to become the Shadow Treasurer and that will be just too funny for words.
HAHAHA
Maybe Rudd’s just trying to bring the ALP into the 21st Century. Why would you assume he would automatically try to undermine the left? It’s a bit of an absurdity that the man voted to lead the nation can’t choose he’s own team.
Melbourne winners. Watch for the presentation. Should be good.
Rudd’s team gets up. One all, Howard/Rudd in Grand Finals.
Paul, Bill, you might find it funny but he’s my representitive in Canberra and i’d like him replaced.
#
69
Molotov Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 9:03 pm
Is Rudd’s call to have ministers apointed by him rather than by caucus a way of undermining the left faction so that instead of ‘left’ having very little power they have absolutly ‘Zero’ power and therefore moving Labor even further to the right?
What left? the ALP has no left with a voice. What there was are now totaly silent. Rather sad really. The only way the ALP has a chance of winning is to be a lighter version of Howards libs. They had to clone the Libs to get somewhere
What’s your point? They are both AWU members, and Australian citizens, if they want to endorse someone running for political office they can do so.
He was a union leader representing members of his union. If he wasn’t there you’d be complaining that union leaders don’t represent their members.
No Workchoices ads on Nine in Sydney. Did they get scared off?
Paul, he would do precisely that: choose his own team, his favourites would be from Labor Right, hence undermining Left. He’s making the party itself more presidential and if dictatorial fascination with one man’s urges reigning supreme is what defines the 21st C. then i say bring on the 22nd C.!
No Workchoices ads on Nine in Sydney. Did they get scared off?
I think the monitoring of the blog sites has fed back to Liberal Headquarters. They seem to be taking a lot of notice of particular flood of comments and relating that back to strategy.
9 played some during half time of the NRL final in Adelaide.
Great big boo on the thugby to Howard
Bill, of course, Labor is already dominated by the right but some are righter than others. The Liberals have a left faction who are simply less ‘far right’.
Glen,
Under a PROPORTIONAL system such as MMP it is not a straight two-horse race as far as winning seats in the House is concerned. There are also half a dozen or so other smaller parties winning seats. Thus it is actually very difficult for any party to win in a landslide.
For instance in the 2002 election, Labour had 19.4% lead over National in the terms of votes gained and won almost twice as many seats, but still did not win a majority of the seats in Parliament and had to rely on the two centre-left Progressive MPs and the centrist United party for a majority. Even then it’s majority was only 4 seats! (Note: Labour at the time was in strife with the Greens over GE food trials.)
Anyway on current polling National averages 48 – 52% support which is a healthy 10 – 15% ahead of Labour. However National even with ACT and United will have only a small majority (about 6 – 8 seats) over the Labour, Progressive, Green and Maori parties. Hardly a landslide.
National under Key will almost certainly be in government after the 2008 election, but because of the MMP system, it won’t be with a landslide parliamentary majority. A major party without sizeable coalition partners will have to poll over 55% to win in a landslide under MMP. Neither Labour nor National (even in recent polls) has achieved this since MMP was introduced in NZ in 1996.
Howard IS on stage for the official party to hand out the premiership medallions and yes he DID get a lound round of boos ….. For a brief few seconds, he looked terribly embarrased and wanted to probably dig a hole and hide …..
Julie i’m in Wakefield, currently liberal marginal by a wafer thin thread, i’m positive this one will go labor, the new guy Nick Champion is doing the street meets all the time, i was shocked that the libs got it last time– the Latham effect i think.
Molotov, Rudd is known to be a bit of a control freak and if he gets us over the line he’ll be able to ask for and get what he wants, i believe he himself is unaligned with any faction and Gillard is left, i never liked her at the last election but i think maybe i was biased because i loathed Latham, she’s certainly been impressive the way she’s been carving Hockey and Abbott up and then looking around for who’s next, she would after a few years make a good PM but she’d be unacceptable because of her left ties.
waits till he starts to speak
Julie, bugga i missed it– if anyone gets a link please post it lol.
Howard got booed when introduced, and tried to laugh it off. The MC then moved quickly onto the next intro.
He gets booed fairly regularly now. I first noticed it when I attended the Commonwealth Games in Melbourne and 45,000 people suddenly started booing when he came out to give an athlete a gold medal.
Molotov, not really sure. I lived in Melbourne, in another safe Labor seat (Melbourne) at that time. The guy that they elected to replace Latham [Chris Hayes] has been really well received by all counts. I have been here in this seat now about 18 months (?) and he has been very helpful to me personally. Both he and people in his office gave me heaps of assistance over 2006 while I was getting my citizenship application processed. Don’t know what the current margin is but know it is safe Labor.
Really the Liberal party is listening in?
Well on an unrelated issue i have heard from a good source that the electorate of Murray is looking like a Labor win. If I was the Liberal Party I would spend lots of Money there so as to make sure it is kept!
I thought the boos were for the Melbourne players.
59
Albert Ross Says:
Yes very serious Albert. I am well aware of the projects name ( why add it to a post where few probable are) and well aware of it’s current state. The report you mention came in two version, one pointing out the problems that need to be addressed and the other the benefits. The former report was well publicized in the western press the latter hardly gets a mention.
The problems mentioned were landslides and unplanned development.
Yes unlike some of the things that happen in North America, there are good reasons for this.
1) Dams have limited life, sediment builds up making them useless.
2) Several are under attack because of the salmon run.
3) Several North American dams have structural problems and are unsafe ( there are a lot of earthen dams).
However we need power and a failed dams (of which North America has had it’s share) is a disaster that doesn’t create a
zones of alienation.
Re 70,
“Derek Corbett Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 9:04 pm
Julie @ 56
“Downer is probably the worst one of the lot.â€
After Howard, Ruddock must rank as Number 2, if long-term damage to legal institutions is considered. And the rest. Refugees, etc.
Downer at 3.”
Yeah, I was reminded about Ruddock, guess I forgot him. I will revise a personal hit list and make sure I have it by my fingertips on election night so that I can tick them off as they fall over
KIWI what is the Maori Party like?
“bmwofoz Says:
September 30th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
I thought the boos were for the Melbourne players.”
No – I rewound it (gotta love digital) and yes the boos were for howard – he laughed it off as he must have been expecting it.
I thought the boos were for the Melbourne players.
bmwofoz 92
So, the winning team gets booed when Howard is introduced, but not any of the other dignitaries that were also introduced. That makes a lot of sense. NOT.
Unless, of course, you were joking?
Scorpio, thanks for you comments on Dawson, I hope you are right. I had some dealings with De-Anne Kelly a few years ago and while she is quite personable she is a complete Old Time Qld National Troglodyte. Do you know anything about the Labor candidate James Bidgood?
Re Cornes (again): When it comes to the crunch people in Boothby who want to get rid of Howard will vote for the Labor candidate even if she or he can’t count to ten. But do remember that this is for the most part an upper-middle-class seat which Labor has not won since 1946. Winning it was always a long shot.
Re Mayo: People in Mayo who want to get rid of Lord Downer should try to find a credible, high-profile independent to run against him, for example someone with foreign policy or defence credentials who can do what Wilkie did in Bennelong in 2004, only better. Neither Labor nor the Greens can win Mayo, but a good independent certainly can.
That should read “…but not when any of the other dignitaries were introduced.”
It’s been a long day.
Howard looked very small. He was left with a medal dangling in his hands while several players walked past him. Finally he found one only a foot and a half taller and just about mugged the guy putting the medal around his neck. After that he stayed well away from medals.
Adam i agree re. Mayo and I was looking for a decent Independent candidate myself. There was one person contemplaiting but it looks as though he/she has pulled out. Still the 15% of people who voted for Deegan last time will have to go somewhere, probably split 2 to 1 between the Greens and Labor.
So do you think Sturt is a more likely Labor gain?
Id just like to note how hilarious the Govt v Telstra stoush is. The govt outrage at being criticised by a body it used to own and control.
Well, you semi-privatised it, losers!
Now its getting up ya. hehe.
Julie @ 84
Significant booing? Enough to spoil his photo op?
Molotov: Yes but that won’t be enough to defeat Downer. It needs a candidate who can appeal to core Liberal voters. No-one wearing a Labor or Green label can do that. Try and find a disgruntled retired Admiral.
ShowsOn: Yes, and I did so before I knew anything about the candidates.
Derek #61,
re: Traitor! That’s right, shoot through…
I’m here for you baby. I promise I won’t visit NZ again unless Howard wins.
Sigh. I wish I was in an exciting seat. I’m in the Perth electorate. You only see Stephen Smith emerging from stabbing some factional enemy in the back or from cooking up some back room deal. I don’t think I’ve seen a thing from the libs in my mailbox yet.
Okay, now we have the Australian Government advertising it’s ‘Australian Citizenship Test’. Suppose that will firm up all the extreme right votes, but not much else.
Oh well, hopefully after the Coalitions electoral defeat Downer will retire and we can have a by-election. That would be fun!
Worst of
are the Libs doing any mailouts in perth or is it more print /tv ads
Barker’s looking dangerous for the Libs. if I was in charge of the party i’d increase spending there.
I will boo – boo boo boo. News Limited’s Storm. They should hang their heads in shame for what they did to the game. Four teams had to merge, one got booted out, and another had to go through the courts to get reinstated. I WILL NEVER FORGIVE OR FORGET!
We will get our revenge in the election. That’s much more important.
Quiz Question: At the Last federal election which sucessful candidate received the lowest primary vote? For a bonus point: What is the lowest primary vote that a candidate has received and then gone on to win at any election?
we can always have a pic of Downer on hand Julie on election night and stick pins in it hoping it will do us some good lol.
ive always found the state labor pollies good when ive needed them, and they treat me with respect, i had a lot to do with Chris Summner our now retired attorney general and Lynn Arnold several years ago and they became good friends, Michael Atkinson knows me quite well but not as close as i was to Chris. the libs when they were in treated us like nuisances, i had information about a well known prisoner getting special deals and treatment from his guards and i tried to let the lib attorney general who was in at the time know, he brushed me off and told me he didnt have time to speak to me, it blew up as a big scandal this year– ten years after i tried to tell the then AT. the libs here tried to make a big deal of blaming the Rann government until i told them i’d go public about the brush off.
One of the consequences of Rudd taking a firm hand on the composition of a Labor govt. ministry is that it helps nullify the fear campaign about “Union Bosses” being wielders of influence beyond their bailiwick.
*Gillard to Hockey in a future TV tete-a-tete*
“How many ministers will “Union Bosses” get to pick in a Rudd Labor Govt., Joe?”
Adam, I met Bidgood once, don’t know much about him but will find out and let you know.
Did anyone notice that a number of Manly players wouldn’t shake hands with Howard.
He looked almost in shock and was desperately grabbing at a number of players trying to get them to shake his hand.
Manly probably blame Howard for losing seeing he made such a point of pledging support for them. lol
Molotov … good question!
The Maori party is a party that was formed in 2004 after MP Tariana Turia left the Labour party after disagreeing with legislation Labour and it’s allies introduced on foreshore and seabed ownership issues, which she thought was racist (ie anti-Maori).
In the 2005 Election the Maori party won 4 of the 7 specially designated Maori seats in a parliament of 121 seats. The Maori party is led by Turia with Peter Sharples as a co-leader. However Sharples (who like 3 of the 4 Maori party MPs was only elected in 2005) due to his good leadership and media skills has assumed a higher profile than Turia.
The Maori party is hard to categorise on a left-right continuum, as it is an ethnically based party trying to represent a broad range of views among Maoridom. However I’d say it’s more centre-left than centre-right.
If it wasn’t for the enmity between Turia and Clark the Maori party would be a potential coalition partner for Labour. However it is not a natural coalition partner for National either, especially as National campaigned in the 2005 election to abolish Maori seats!
So for the time being the Maori party looks like being on the cross-benches. If it wins 4-7 seats in the 2008 election it could well hold the balance of power between the Labour-Progressive-Green and National-Act-United (or National-ACT-United-NZ First if NZ First get in!) blocs.
A bad night for the Rodent: Manly gets smashed, he gets booed and most of the players refuse to shake his hand LOL
One hopes it’s Howard’s last ever NRL GF presentation.
Was Rudd at the big game too?
Kev: thanks for the info about Sturt. It’d be nice if Pyne got thrown out!
No idea
…. after I saw that, I turned it off. I am not a NRL person, I am an AFL person. My only motivation for watching the post game stuff to that point was to see Howard squirm. Once I got my fix, I turned it off. Will have to ask others who watched it in its entire length ….
I will say though that the rasberries were not as loud as they were at last years A-League GF though. Melbournians always have a louder anti-Liberal voice
.
If there is a by-election in Mayo, will the Libs still keep it? In otherwords, is it a safe Liberal seat or is it Downer that is keeping it safe? Will it fall if he isn’t in the picture?
neither the match nor the presentation was telecasted here, wot a bugga!!! i’d loved to have seen it.
Molotov, your observation about Barker is based on what, other than revolutionary optimism? I know Secker is completely invisible but this is a rural seat with a 20% majority.
When diesel hit $152.90 in Broome last week it was probably time to put Kalgoorlie on a price watch as well. It dropped 2c today so it was probably a pre-long-weekend scam with which the Eastern States are only too familiar. “Labor View from Broome’ is heading down to the North West Cape this week till the 12th of October. If Howard hasn’t called an election by then not enough people will have watched “John Howard: The Party’s Over” http://laborview.blogspot.com/ and passed on their thoughts to coalition pollies. Why are we waiting?
Judy,
Do you have cable at your place? If you do, look for Sky News tomorrow and watch highlights there. They might show that part. Also, check the various sports channels – Fox Sports News would be a good first bet. Also, the morning news programs on the free to air channels might show it too. Check the complete coverage in the Age tomorrow {www.theage.com.au}, it is Melbourne’s paper. Somewhere someway, it will turn up. If all else fails, perhaps someone will post on YouTube?
Buggar we missed that in Adelaide because as soon as the game ended the station cut to the Sunday night movie…I watched the entire game waiting to see Howard booed. oh well…I hope he did squirm and realise he also is in for a trouncing when he finally decides to call the election & stop wasting our time and money on those stupid “information” ads.
Mayo is a pretty strong liberal voting area, but I would say it is roughly split into 2 types of liberal voters. One is the proper old-fashioned small “l” liberals, and the others in the more rural parts of Mayo are the dyed-in-the-wool conservative types. The second grouping will never ever vote for anything but a conservative candidate, but the first grouping who have often voted Democrat in the past would certainly vote for a good independent candidate. As I’ve said before Downer won’t lose this seat. He might have a chunk of his primary wiped out, but that would be about the best one could hope for.
What’s the odds we might have a run of by-elections should the Libs lose this election? Can anybody seriously imagine Downer, Ruddock, and a few of the other oldtimers in safe seats sticking around for a long haul in opposition? These guys should probably be asked about their retirement plans in addition to Howard.
Bushfire
A sad picture you paint. Wonder if it will be represented in tomorrow’s papers? With big Canon and Nikons running off at 89 squillion frames a second, there must be one that captures the moment. Question is: Will it be published? Or will it be the standard Howard photo-op variety?
I’d say Justine Elliot in Richmond who had, from memory, a primary vote of around 35%.
Not too sure about the second question. But I suspect it was an independent or third party candidate. Michael Organ perhaps?
So Julie are you saying Keating or Beazley or Rudd would not get booed??
People always boo politicians regardless of who they are its just the way it
goes?
Tonight I think it is rather dubious to argue that Howard got booed i barely heard any from the telecast….At least Howard is a sporting guru he might be crap as all hell in playing it but he sure loves it…Rudd has no sporting history that we know of…
Adam my Barker call can be explained by my post at 91. Also did you notice Dr. Karl is with the CCC?
Anyway i’ll repeat myself:
Quiz Question: At the Last federal election which sucessful candidate received the lowest primary vote? For a bonus point: What is the lowest primary vote that a candidate has received and then gone on to win at any election?
Its amazing. Everytime I watch a Deep Space 9 episode with Ferengi in it, I can’t help but see the Liberal Party. Especially The Rules of Acquisition has to be the Liberal rules.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_of_Acquisition
Wikipedia says:
“Ferengi culture is so devoted to unregulated capitalism that concepts such as labor unions, sick leave, vacations, or paid overtime for workers are considered abhorrent, because they would interfere with exploitation of workers.” Sound Familiar?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferengi
John Howard has to be Quark. There is so many episodes that I have seen that seem to ring a bell, anyone else noticed?
My answer is @ 128, Molotov.
I see I didn’t really answer the second question properly. Too late now: I’ve since looked it up. Organ’s primary was even lower than I thought; so I’m probably on the money.
Glen: Rudd played Rugby at school.
The funniest thing was some of the Manly players refusing to shake Howard’s hand.
Glen said:
“Rudd has no sporting history that we know of…â€
Good. Sport in Australia is an over-rated pastime.
And no way would Kevin Rudd have been booed. Take another look at his satisfaction rating.
I can’t remember Hawke ever getting booed at a sporting event: a Bronx cheer perhaps, but never booed.
i dont bother with cable Julie, i had it piped to three rooms when the family was still home but i discontinued it a couple of years ago, ive got a TV here in my retreat next to the computor but i mainly watch ch2 news, 7 30 report and lateline, oh and of course meet the press and the insiders, ive got all the newspapers in my favourites and read them on line before i open my print copies of the Advertiser and the GG, ordinary telly programs dont interest me any more, in fact i never seem to have the time for them.
Victoria now holds the three major football code trophies: A-League, AFL and NRL.
If the Member for Higgins had had the intestinal fortitude to challenge Ratty a few weeks ago, Victoria would also have a prime minister to call their own.
Still, three out of four ain’t bad.
Channel 9 did a major shepherding job with Howard tonight.
The sound technicians made sure the mic’s picked up as little of the crowd booing as possible.
Also, the commentator made sure when mentioning Howard’s name (which was often), that he straight away announced a players name so as to provide cover for Howard so that people would be seen as rude to jeer.
Molotov yr #91 just moves the question back one stage: what’s your source about Murray? You can’t make assertions like that without some evidence.
I have noticed in the last couple of weeks that Jason Wood in La Trobe is putting signs all around my area with projects that have been paid by the fed govt. saying “delivered”………no wording or logo that says “Liberal” party though.
#138 Adam It was a joke. Read it carefully.
I notice now that Noel Brunning, standing as an Inde in Forrest, lists one of his aims: “… to protect WorkChoices …”
A front person, I’d guess.
i was a bit dissapointed at rudd’s no show at the grand final,i expected him to parachute in on the presentation singing the national anthem in chinese.
Fagin would you really have wanted the fourth trophy??
Julie you said you had to get citizenship papers, if its not too cheeky would you mind if i asked where you came from? i understand if you dont want to answer.
Adam, yeah Chris B @ 140 is right. Or is he???
Organ is a folklaw hero and champ!
Thanks David: second question: Whats the highest primary of all time?
I saw the A-League Final presentation on the TV news last year … got a great laugh when Kristian Sarkies (I think) kissed the top of Howard’s head after getting his medal.
The emperor has no clothes, and no respect either.
A bit off topic I know but here is a link to the letter Ackerman is promoting as the smoking gun to bring down Rudd. I think the Liberals are banking on the revived “Heiner issue” to peg back Labor’s lead in the polls.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/open_debate_is_needed/P30/
I don’t see what is in it to excite Ackerman. It is just to fan the seeds of doubt and hopefully get the issue an increased media coverage.
A lot of the commenters appear to be well schooled Liberal trolls even from WA. A couple in particular have posted almost identical comments on other sited with any reference to Heiner.
I don’t think Ackerman will leave it on too long so it might be good if someone could save it. I love the way he denigrates any poster who is critical of him. A couple of examples.
{Those are the facts, they are indisputable. You get over it. }
{You poor fool, }
{more the fool you. }
{My dear fellow, this is all a matter of public record which has been ignored by the Queensland authorities – fancy that! }
{If you don’t know what you’re talking about, please pull your head in. }
{Go take your medicine and go to bed.}
{ Don’t make wild unsupportable claims just because you disagree with what I have written. }
{Given the ferocity of the attacks upon me and their extraordinary lack of substance, I don’t think I am the person with the credibility problem. }
Unfortunately for Piers, I read all the posts and many, although critical, were soundly based and did not directly attack him, just critically examined his article and pointed out the paucity of the argument.
Back in Boothby. During the vast lulls in the footy, from an SA point of view, more politics, more Nicole.
Universally agreed, gee, a candidate is expected to understand the policies.
Mostly labor voters, a few others. Not to be mean to Nicole, but alternative candidate as I have said on earlier threads, such as Chloe Fox, not that she could have stood this election, would have walked it in against Andrew Southcott. Who is pretty well a non event, just fortunate.
Assuming Lib retains the seat, I am sure Chloe will go next Federal election.
is the governor general back in the country for him to disolve parliament and issue writs?
Oh, and congratulations well done Cats supporters!
From Noel Brunning’s website blog (my emphasis added):
“I support work choices so long as they are fair to both employee and employer. It’s not ggo creating a a system that just “log jams” the process of getting on with good business. It would be successfully argued that some in some instances some employers arn’t doing the right thing by their staff. I feel though that in the long run that will hurt their business growth and the loyalty shown to them by their staff. It’s just too hard at the moment to find good people – so why employers would want to short change workers is beyond me. As an employer I find the work choices system very fair. In my industry (hospitality) many of my casual staff “demand” felxible hours because of school or family commitments. The work choice system also offers a fair arrnagments for staff who want to work hard. Bonus payments are common and more than half of my staff earn more money than the exisiting award system allows. Simply because they deserve it. Surely that’s a fair thing. I believe that greater protection nnedds to be in place to ensure that young workers arn’t getting ripped off. But their parents also have the responsibilty to check agreements to make sure they are fair. All agreements should be registered – so make sure your emplkoyer is doing that (You’ll also get a letter back to say it has been registered).”
I have posted him this comment:
“Well Noel, since Work Choices is shaping up to be the central issue of the election, and since you support the Howard Government’s legislation, it seems that a vote for you is in effect a vote for Howard. So why shouldn’t people cut out the middle man and just vote for Nola Marino? On the other hand those who oppose Work Choices will now have no choice but to vote for Peter Macfarlane.”
Worst of Perth @ 106
My heart goes out.
Mr Smith is, in my experience, a seriously under-animated person. But a good bloke.
(As a pro photographer, some candidates make it hard).
#51 Glen,
You are drawing a mighty long bow to compare them Glen. Beaconsfield was primarily a story of survival. It was an accident in a heavily unionised and dangerous industry. AND the union provided much of the support in the rescue. While it was also a tragedy for the family of Larry Knight it is also an example of the need for unions in hazardous workplaces all across the country, Larry Knights family would say as much themselves. Abbot on the other hand, having fallen in a vat of verbal laxatives sometime after birth just reflexively sought to capitalize on an individual tragedy by making tenuous connections to labor where none existed. BIG difference.
JC: The Administrator (Currently NSW Governor Marie Bashir) will disolve parliament/issue writs if the GG is not around (He’s not back for a while)
thanks James J
is there some constitutional backing for this or just a convention?
Yes – back in Boothy – my electorate – I will vote for Nicole Cornes – I am looking at the bigger picture of voting out the Howard Govt and if it means voting for her then I will. I don’t pay attention to that rag of a newspaper the Advertiser. I would never vote for Southcott – he is entirely ineffectual in my view.
What is it with Ackerman?
Bolt is a die hard Liberal and Howard supporter but doesn’t stoop to childish trashy stuff like Acketman does.
Ackerman has been trying to push this smear for ages even Barneby Joyce sunk into the feces pit to try and table it [who would have thought he had grown that slimey]. This has been through a bunch or reviews already and Rudd’s involvement, if there was one, is fairly remote. It’s simply not going to fly with the public, especially since it relates to an event that happened under a previous Qld govt.
We reflected gloomily on the footy. By this am I had cheered up…liked the idea of landslide. Good Omen!
4. The provisions of this Constitution relating to the Governor-General extend and apply to the Governor-General for the time being, or such person as the Queen may appoint to administer the Government of the Commonwealth.
All the Governors have a “dormant commission” to act as Administrator (acting GG) if circumstances require. I think the right of the senior Governor to be Administator is just a convention.
Bolt is a die hard Liberal and Howard supporter but doesn’t stoop to childish trashy stuff like Acketman does.
Bolt was once a Labor staffer. Since then, he’s been a bit in love with Howard. He’s certainly done more than his fair share of sliming, the most prominent example of which was leaking a smear (from DFAT) against Andrew Wilkie. Bot is a professional dirt-digger compared to Piers’ amateurism.
On the face of it, no anti-Rudd slur has worked thus far. Maybe the Howard fans think if they keep trying, they’ll reach a ‘tipping point’ of dirt, or something.
Adam
at least Mr Howard will have a shorter drive to ask for dissolution of parliament
Kina, thing is about Barnaby, contaminated by association.
Adam, James Bidgood has a Biography up on the ALP site. Link here.
http://www.alp.org.au/people/qld/bidgood_james.php
{James Bidgood (B.Sc Hons, Social Science) is a Councillor on the Mackay City Council, Financial Director of Caneland Medical Centre, and popular local identity. He opened a second surgery in March 2005 called One Stop Medical.}
Comes from a working class and Union supporting background in the “old country”
Looks to have the goods to really capitalise on workchoices and take it right up to DeAnne.
I did mention my new bike, carbon traders. Electric. Pedalled self powered here there and everywhere. Zoomed up the steep hill with the motor on. Fantastic!
Adam, looks like James Bidgood’s wife is a Doctor at the Caneland Medical Centre. Should get the Doctor wife vote.
Dr Rachel Bidgood
MBBS, DipObsGyn, BSc(Nutrition), MRCGP, FRACGP, MACNEM.
Women & Children’s Health, Nutrition, Asthma & Lifestyle/Stress Management
http://www.canelandmedical.com.au/index.htm
Yes Scorpio, I have seen that. I meant does anyone have any personal knowledge of his capacity as a candidate. This will count for a lot in a country seat. De-Anne is a colourful personality and has a good stock of populist slogans – she will be hard to toss.
Re Howard and Bashir. Yes, when Bashir is Administrator she will base herself at Admiralty House, which I believe is right next door to Howard’s modest suburban home, so he will just have to pop in to get the papers signed.
Trivia: If this occurs, I’m fairly sure it would be the first time a woman has granted a dissolution of federal Parliament.
No, on reflection, I think the correct protocol would be for her to go to Yarralumla and make him do the thing properly.
Here is a link I picked up in my little excursion into the Heiner affair.
{Proceedings of the Seventeenth Conference of
The Samuel Griffith Society } ….. including address by Kevin Lindeberg.
http://www.samuelgriffith.org.au/papers/html/volume17/v17contents.htm
It’s well worth bookmarking for future reference, as all speakers have links to their speeches on the web site.
I think she may also be the first person of non-European descent to give a federal dissolution.
Not all Governors have had a dormant commission. The Queen withdrew Sir Colin Hannah’s (Queensland in 1975) commission at Whitlam’s request after he made some political remarks against the Whitlam Government.
Question: If Bashir is the Administrator does she still occupy the position of Governor or does this go to NSW’s Lt Gov, the Chief Justice James Spiegelman, who incidentally was Gough’s chief press officer.
Glennings
When coming to sporting anthonologies, it would not best in best interst to the highlightings of great sporting hero Mr Howard to point to lack of prows in crickets or rungby. This shos disrefultable altiidues.
All governors have a dormant commission unless the Queen, acting on advice, withdraws it.
I think she occupies both positions simultaneously. It’s not like being Administrator is a fulltime job – she doesn’t take on the GG’s social schedule, only his constitutional functions.
I gather than when the GG goes overseas, he signs an instrument appointing the senior Governor as Administrator. If the GG were to die or be incapacitated, the senior Governor’s dormant commission would come automatically into effect. When Lord Dunrossil died in 1961, Sir Dallas Brooks became Administrator immediately.
I think it will be December 1st. Reasoning,
- JWH has said on several occasions that it will be “before Xmas’. therefore MAYBE a January poll is off the agenda (however it isn’t a core promise)
- He may be waiting for the advertising blitz rally to the coalition which has occurred in past campaigns
-This doesn’t seem to be happening this time so he may try to use the October sitting of parliament to get a boost
- This may not be forthcoming, but by then it’s too late for a Novemver election.
Hope the above is true because I’m out of the country from 17 to 25 Nov, and I’ve been waiting a long time for what I now think is a virtual certainty!
In addition to s4 of the constitution there is the Letters patent constituting the office of GG:
VII. And We do hereby declare Our pleasure to be that, in the event of the death, incapacity, removal, or absence of Our said Governor General out of Our said Commonwealth, all and every the powers and authorities herein granted to him shall until Our further pleasure is signified therein, be vested in such person as may be appointed by Us under Our Sign Manual and Signet to be Our Lieutenant Governor of Our said Commonwealth: or if there shall be no such Lieutenant Governor in Our said Commonwealth, then in such person or persons as may be appointed by Us under Our Sign Manual and Signet to administer the Government of the same.
I know this is off topic but there a fascinating debate and interview on the BBC right now about Climate Change with Bill Clinton and Michael Bloomberg. Got to say I miss Clinton when I think about the present occupant of the White House.
Does Ackerman have any credibility and if not why do they employ him and have him on the Insiders? If he wants a bee in his bonnet I suggest he pester the Govt on the Manildra affair. Would love to see the uncensored document that was released under FOI.
Ah James, you beat me to it
Well paul, be of good cheer, because soon there will be Clinton II in the White House. In 2009 Hillary, Gordon and Kevin will reconstitute the Three Amigos, only this time as a force for doing good rather than for stuffing things up.
Adam @152
Ta. Question answered. A liberal stooge. Thought as much.
Sunray the Underrepresented
Your previous post at #171 might need some translation. The original:
“Glennings
When coming to sporting anthonologies, it would not best in best interst to the highlightings of great sporting hero Mr Howard to point to lack of prows in crickets or rungby. This shos disrefultable altiidues.”
Might read better as:
“Glen
When using sporting analogies, it would not be in Mr Howard’s best interest in an attempt to highlight the degree to which he may appear as a great sporting hero to mention his lack of prowess in Cricket nor in Rugby. This shows disreputable attitudes.”
However, a direct back-translation in Mandarin, (by a group also responsible for translating TV instructions into English for Chinese made TVs):
” Mr Glen
When incorporation sporting analgesics into Mr Howard’s best investment, please not highlighting his appearance as a cricket or Rug Bee. His prowess not for reputable attitudes person.”
I hope this helps
When
Oops, quoted the old letters patent.
Most relevant amendment: http://www.gg.gov.au/governorgeneral/content.php?id=3
179
Generic Oracle Says:
Great. Love it, very appropriate.
On the record thread someone said
The are thousands of good reasons in the Greens persisting with running candidates in lower house seats both state and federal – electoral funding for the local groups.
Also by judicious use of lower house preferences the Greens can influence policies of the major parties.
A quick run down on Forrest from a local
Forrest will almost certainly be retained by the Liberals this election but the margin will be cut to only a few percent. Noel Brunning is not an issue he wont and cant run second, the ALP last time got around 28% primary and will get much more this time possibly around 35%+. The swings will come division wide but will be strongest in the Carey Park booths, the South Bunbury area, Eaton and Margaret River. The tree changers in areas like Bridgetown and Nannup are also in a swinging mood. Collie will remain the ALP’s stronghold. see my booth map here for more info.
Noel Brunning will nearer to the election preference the Libs he is deep down very conservative. This will hurt him, swing voters see him as a slightly less evil option and will be angered when he preferences them after saying he will not preference anyone. Also he has a tendency to say stupid and ridiculous things at town hall style meetings. The more he speaks the more votes he loses.
The Lib candidate Nola Marino is in no uncertain terms a joke. She is attempting to win this race by advertising and does not attend candidate debates or go on local radio with other candidates. The Libs are using WA senator Judith Adams to attack the ALP candidate instead of Marino. I dont think they have confidence in her. Oh and she’s a closet National.
The ALP candidate is being very active and getting around the electorate and reports getting a good reception in most areas. He probably cant win but he is giving it a real good go.
Oh and on a side note Geoff Prosser a few months ago utilised the services of Julian Grill (Burkes friend) for a Development Application in Bunbury. One Councillor reported being lobbied by Grill in a local newspaper. I am surprised nothing has come of this especially since just meeting with burke will get you sacked.
There was some discussion of Barker(SA) above: a claim that the Libs are in trouble.
This is hard to believe.
However, Barker is interesting in being one of the handfull of safe electorates where the odds of a third party or independent win are greater than the odds of a win by the other main party.
According to Portlandbet this is true of:
safe coalition: Forrest, Calare, Parkes and Barker
independent: Kennedy and New England
safe Labor: Melbourne, Corio, Gellibrand, Gorton, Cunningham, Grayndler, Sydney
Labor is being challenged by the Greens I guess in these last 7 seats.
Forrest and Calare have prominent independents.
Parkes has the CCC.
But I wonder who would be the most likely winner of Barker if it wasn’t the Liberals.
Nice map, Hossen27.
After what we’ve had up to now they’ll be likened to The Holy Trinity. I’m embarrassed to say I was once a Bush supporter. What a huge disappointment he has turned out to be.
Thanks Hossen that is valuable gossip.
William, you should try to secure an intelligent well-informed local correspondent in each of the 150 seats who can post bulletins of useful info like that to keep us all informed. I’d volunteer for Melbourne Ports but my affiliations are a bit too well-known.
Onya AllyB 157 Boothby
We are not by any means voting Liberal. Just think Nicole is not swaying the couldabeens.
newspoll 56-44 2pp, primary 48 to 39. From The Australian. I thought it wasnt out till tuesday.
A couple of videos of Noel Brunning.
Bloopers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHGE6yYGDPQ
Story of Noel Standing for Forrest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1X2Bs44AlE
Newspoll 56 / 44
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22509821-601,00.html
Adam, I spot three errors on your pendulum:
Calare – should be John Cobb (not Michael)
Parkes – should be Mark Coulton (not Colbran)
Perth – should be Stephen Smith (not Steven)
Oh wow, Hossen27. Will have a looksee.
James,
You might be quoting from the pre-1984 Letters Patent. The 1984 version and subsequent amendments are available at http://www.gg.gov.au.
Currently a person appointed as administrator does not assume administration of the Cth until requested by the GG or the PM.
d
Thanks David
Newspoll? Is today Monday??
Newspoll is out already.
Thanks William and Adam, more coming over the coming weeks. I’d be happy to keep all informed about the going’s on in Forrest.
Probably early cos of Long Weekend.
But nice numbers :-0)
Good spot Hossen27. I notice that Howards net satitisfaction is now negative.
So now we wait for Glen to come try to bury this thread due to Newspoll figures still being bad for the Coalition
Hossen, perhaps you have some gossip on Canning as well? Or know someone who could send us some?
Reverting to a long dead discussion of who won election with the lowest primary vote… aren’t we forgetting the FFP in the Vic Senate election, who actually lost their deposit, but still got their candidate up!
(Thank you steve conroy, and all the other bean counters at alp HQ)
Good ol’ Dennis, still at it.
{while the Bruce Highway funding targets Hinkler, Flynn, Herbert and Leichhardt. }
William, I don’t think Howard offering highway upgrading through these electorates will gain any votes at all.
North Queensland is still waiting for the promised $400 million all-weather upgrade which Howard offered after the cyclone at Tully/Innisfail.
So the fact that Howard has been known to offer “non-core” promises will count against any vote movement.
Herbert is probably the Coalition’s best chance out of the three. Hinkler and the new seat, Flynn are only small margins and with the figures Labor are polling at present in QLD, they will definitely fall to the ALP.
Leichhardt, with a new candidate from the Libs and a good, well known Labor candidate and being an area which has long been a strong Labor area State wise, should follow the trend identified elsewhere and fall to Labor with a healthy margin.
Same old. Polls aint moving anywhere.
Prediction: This election will be the nail in Morgan’s coffin.
Had a look at the GG. Shanahan appears to be conceding…
Was just about to mention that – the Shamaham is still waiting for Howard’s “Bounce”.
Keep waiting Dennis old son…………
Yeah, my favourite line is:
“There is also a mounting view that Kevin Rudd will suffer the longer the election campaign runs.”
Unfortunatley, these “view mounters” remain anonymous.
I think he means Liberals are HOPING Rudd suffers during the campaign.
Also, according to Shanahan, we should now be in the middle of the campaign. He doesn’t have any credibility calling the election date, because he picks differnet dates with each article he writes.
From Shanahan’s article in the Australian on the latest Newspoll. Where does he get this from? For all intents and purposes we’ve had an election campaign for ages now and the polls haven’t moved.
Molotov at 130 asked
My guess is 16.6% of primary vote for Henry Hewson (Country Party) McMillan 1972
Adam #200
Unfortunately I have very little to no info on Canning but I will consult my rolladex. Canning is very hard to pick. But have heard good things about Stirling for the ALP. The former labor areas in the east around Mirrabooka should swing back to Labor hard and the west (Lib areas) will not swing against.
There is also a good chance the Nationals will poll higher in O’Connor than the ALP this time around. The ALP candidate is Dominic Rose he’s about 20 and the National is quite a impressive candidate. Tuckey will win, obviously, but 2010 is a possibility.
It’ll be a cold day in Hell before anyone at the Morgoth press concedes this election. They’ll still be arguing the toss on the Monday morning after.
If the mounting view is that Rudd will suffer in long campaign, why not call it now??? And based on what evidence? The last 9 months? Hardly. Also there are probably only 3 normal newspolls left before election.
The bounce and comeback better happen fast. Time is running out…
The bounce will come…. At the 2016/19 election.
Hossen, Dominic Rose is indeed 20, and although I’m sure he’s a fine young man I can’t see him doing very well. The Nats have an excellent candidate in Phil Gardiner. I would have thought, given that Tuckey is 71, clearly past his best and increasingly erratic, that Gardiner would have to be given some chance.
That Newspoll is not bad.
However, it did interrupt my investigations into the possibility of tactical voting in Federal Australian elections.
I have not heard this discussed here before. It used to be a popular topic before UK elections.
However, it seems that Calare and Forrest could both be taken away from the coalition by tactical Labor/Green voters.
Barker could also be transferred from Liberals to Nationals by tactical Labor and Green voting.
I am not sure if any of this would make a better parliament but it might be worth discussing.
I would have thought the extra time beneficial to Labor as well, giving them time to work over policy detail and get their local actions organised – also for the unions get their local acts together too. Not to mention that more and more people go onto AWAs each day.
Howard’s waiting for a better polls giving Rudd time to get his army well and truly into position.
I wonder if we are going to hear more from the Liberal toilet mouths over voters continual sleepwalking.
Labor voters won’t vote for Brunning if he’s pro-WorkChoices.
Likewise I don’t see the point in Labor voters supporting the Nationals, although I assume in a seat where Labor expects to come third they would preference the Nats just to make trouble for the Coalition.
Priestley in Calare must be given some chance although I’ve not heard any local info from there. It’s hard to know whether Andren’s removal from the campaign will reduce Priestley’s chances. (Any news on Andren’s health, by the way?)
Adam #213
I agree, Dominic is young man who is willing to put himself out there where many older ALP members wouldn’t. I can tell you no adult member wanted to run for O’Connor. Gardiner has a chance since Labor will preference him but Farmers are a strange political beast. I know many wheatbelt farmers and they all hate Tuckey but they seem to be unsure about the federal nats, many vote national at state level.
Tuckey makes my skin crawl and I thought be would step down this time. If he goes down I will be partying regardless of the outcome.
Adam,
If you watch that second BRunnig Video I posted, you will see the ALP & LIb Candidates, and a grab from his launch speech.
From what I’ve seen of his website, he loves the sound of his own voice and he reminds me of Mike Moore
aka an Airhead.
I have been informed that Brunnings launch was attended by at most 30 people, all of which paid to be there. For his original campaign launch which was postponed due health concerns (he was all campainged out) he received 3 RSVP’s.
30 people, he couldn’t even man half the booths in Forrest with that.
But if a pro-WorkChoices candidate is going to win, isn’t it better for Labor that it isn’t someone who will sit in the Liberal party room?
I loved this bit from Shanahan.
{The Prime Minister and his ministers have all indicated publicly that they do not expect the published polls to narrow until the election is called, and possibly then not until the last couple of weeks of the campaign. }
If the polls are still showing 56/57 to 44/43 with two weeks to go, I think most of the Coalition will have to be on medication and wear mittens so as not to chew their fingers down to their wrists.
ShowsOn, I think Labor voters will only vote tactically for an independent conservative candidate if they are absolutely certain their own candidate has no chance of winning. That is the case in O’Connor, but not in Forrest. Labor won Forrest in 1969 and came fairly close in 1983.
Frank, I notice that video called the Labor candidate “Ian Macfarlane”. His name is Peter Macfarlane. I hope he sued them
.
Looks like the GG are doing some fishing on behalf of the Libs with their latest online poll.
What will most influence your vote.
Leader
Party Team
Basic Ideology
Family Tradition
Single Issues
This one seems to me to be specifically targeting Labor voters to gain an idea of which area the Libs should concentrate on.
This is why I think waiting is dumb. The polls have been the same since March / April, does Howard honestly think he is going to wake up Tuesday week to see a Newspoll that says 52/48? What if he gets another rogue that says 59/41, what does he do then? Wait even more? What if he wakes up on November 5th, and the Galaxy or Nielsen says it is 57/43? Does that mean we don’t have an election until a week before Christmas? Who honestly thinks that will work in his favour?
The fake campaign has been running all year, the longer he waits, the more desperate people will think he is, because people expect us to currently be in the middle of a real compaign.
It’s GWN – Parish Pump local Television owned by Prime, with Kerry Stokes I think owning a fair chunk (I could be wrong there). I’m pretty sure Brunning is trying to emulate Peter Andren in the Celebrity Country TV STar makes goes to Parliament. – but Noel hasn’t got Peter’s charms, skill and most importantly – respect.
Hahhahahahahah. You know the conservative commetariat is clutching at straws when they write articles saying the arts community should endorse Howard! Here’s Glenn Milne explaining how good Howard has been for the arts:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22507733-7583,00.html
Well I guess they’ve tried everything else!
I heard only once today on Abject Broadcasting Commission, that Howard was scared to face the voters. Anyone?
I think things are going to start getting very dangerous for Howard if he keeps waiting and waiting.
At the moment I think parliament will sit next October, and the government will pull out all the stunts they can think of to try to attack Rudd.
If this is the advice that Howard is getting, then it is very poor advice.
{John Howard is much more likely to accept the advice from his ministers and advisers to hold off calling the election as long as possible if Newspoll continues to show no closing of the gap in Labor’s lead.
There is also a mounting view that Kevin Rudd will suffer the longer the election campaign runs. }
There is no way that Rudd will be concerned with a longish campaign. For heaven’s sake, he is ahead by miles and in the box seat.
The Coalition on the other hand, have been behind for 11 months, have shown that they are affected by this in the uncharacteristic errors made so far and the leadership fiasco and as more panic and desperation sets in, which it will, they will make even more errors and possibly self preservation will cause division and total collapse of their strategy. I’m off to bed. catch up with you all in the morning.
“At the moment I think parliament will sit next October”
whoa showson, i hope you meant This October. Another year of this circus, Gawd help us!
The absolute obession at this website with what The Australian and its commentators have to say is really very puzzling. Firstly we know the editorial team at The Aust is glued onto Howard and are bending all their efforts to pumping up his chances – does this really need to be reiterated every time Shanahan and Milne provide new evidence? Secondly no-one reads the bloody rag anyway, it has a tiny circulation, nearly of whom know who they’re voting for already, so its real political influence is very small. The really influential papers in Australia are the Fairfax flagships the Age and the SMH, the mass circulation tabloids the Herald Sun and the Telegraph, and the monopoly papers the West, the Advertiser and the Courier-Mail. Yet hardly anyone here ever quotes anything from them or appears to be aware of their existence, except for Bolt and Ackerman’s columns. It shows what an elite bubble most of us here live in.
Adam, at apantomime it’s always the most fun to hiss & boo the villains.. specially if they say comic things.
Bit hard to comment on The West when they have a piss poor website which only publishes a fraction of their stories online (unless you fork out a small fortune for their Pay Per View version).
Yes my mistake. But the way Paul Kelly and Dennis Shanahan keep amending their election date predictions, I am now expecting them to simply say “yes, there WILL be an election, because Australia is a democracy”
Well, being realistic, Shanahan just loves to throw up a few dates in each article, he doesn’t have to be right, because he gets to write another article a few days later!
They don’t provide evidence, that’s what’s so entertaining / amusing!
Hey no fair, I made the call that The Advertiser will endorse Rudd. Mark Kenny is one of the most pro-Rudd reporters. He is the guy that dined with Downer and broke the “Downer for S.A. Premier” story, which ultimately came down to Downer big noting himself after a couple of reds.
KiwiPundit, thanks for that explication – very useful outline of the situation. I also note that a group of your reasonable and kindly countrymen will soon be responding publicly to the propositions aired in this thread regarding the prospect of an Australian takeover of New Zealand. Their argument will be emphatic and, I fear, convincing. October 13 at Stade de France, Saint-Denis, France. Perhaps we should let that outcome settle the issue?
Since Tim Fischer retired, I haven’t heard anything about a shared currency between Aus and N.Z. It seemed to be all he talked about as he approached retirement.
Is there actually any economic benefit for Australia of having a shared currency? The amount of N.Z. currency that I used to see when working retail made me think everyone already assumed we had shared currency, even though Aus money is worth ~15% more.
Scorpio @ 225, I was thrilled to see that the vast majority of voters in the Oz’s online poll have chosen “basic ideology” as the biggest influence on their vote. I have heard much anecdotal evidence that howard’s aspirational voters have been left feeling empty.
Adam @ 233
Please tell me you made a mistake when you called the The Advertiser an influential newspaper. Please. I shudder at the thought.
(actually, in all seriousness, very few people down south think it has any credibility at all. Of course, it could be that I’m just associating with people with an IQ greater then, ooh, 80, and that those below that take it seriously. Who knows?)
I mean, for crying out loud, I think editorial considers the ‘Advertiser Watch’ groundbreaking journalism. Weep.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/news/advertiser_watch/
And for a story regarding the watch:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22011269-5006359,00.html
FAULTY water pipes in Davoren Park, that had burst seven times in five weeks leaving residents without water, were promptly fixed.
…
MEMORIALS at West Terrace Cemetery cleared of weeds the day after an Advertiser Watch report.
Where would we be without the tiser?
JCB @ 237
Who said anything about asking the kiwi’s if they want to be taken over? What are they going to do? Throw rugby’s at us?
Was just reading more of my favourite cretin Shanahan. Had to share this bit:
“This goes to the point of Newspoll surveys becoming an end in themselves. Unlike the pollsters, strategists and leaders, most MPs don’t really have a clue about polling, even in their own seat. Newspoll’s authority imbues it with an influence far beyond its actual two-weekly survey results because that’s what the Labor and Coalition MPs use as a foundation for their attitude towards the election and their leadership.”
Just don’t get me started on how little bloggers and the arts community understand about polling!
Well, for me, Adam, I look at the many. A mere internet once over, to note what is being retailed.
All the stuff that papers such as the Herald Sun etc publish are pretty well replicated in Murdoch’s SA tabloids for example, and are imbibed by those who do.
So, ultimately no need to quote same and same on this site.
The Australian itself and the Fairfax papers at least have opinion pieces from a broader spectrum, love or hate them, and some are actually analytical.
Thus one can examine and feel confident in quoting a worthy and substantiated piece. Or even the unworthy. Backed up or challenged by other sources. Which helps in general discussion.
Interesting always to see eyes open when another point is brought into play.
Adam @233
Agree. Low-involvement voters have probably never heard of it. If they have, they shun it. All those words. Uncle Rupert’s power lies with his tabloids and the use of 120pt headlines based on flimsy facts.
Adam @ 233, it is not worth reading the tabloids to know what their readers are like. Nothing is worth that.
Max, I don’t think they care much if we ask! They’ll give us a direct opinion anyhow. And it will hurt… On the other hand, their Air Force no longer has any teeth to speak of, so maybe you have a point.
But I’d as soon leave things the way they are – life is more interesting this way.
Judy @ 143,
I am from the USA and I am not going back. I consider myself Australian now. The USA allows dual citizenship so I kept my birth citizenship but the only aim there was so that I can continue to vote at the presidential elections
.
Does anyone doubt that Kirribilli will be vacant after the election? Rudd will retain the tradition of the PM using the Lodge
……
i spent quite a bit of time in california Julie, i was glad to get back here though.
Dr Good @215.
Tactical voting is irrelevant in Australia because we have preferential voting. It is relevant in the UK because of first past the post voting. When you vote in the UK, you have a strategic choice. Will you vote for your most preferred candidate who may finish third and result in the election of a candidate you really don’t want, or should you vote for the candidate most likely to beat your least preferred candidate.
So LibDem and Labour voters often switch party to vote for the candidate most likely to defeat the conservative. From having worked on UK election, I know the first and second running candidates in a seat will target the supporters of the third party to encourage strategic voting.
This tactic is irrelevant in Australia because you can still vote for your preferred candidate and then give your second preferences to another candidate without helping to elect your least preferred candidate. So in the UK example, you could vote 1 Labour, 2 LibDem without splitting the anti-conservative vote.
In theory, you could manipulate preferences by arranging for a candidate to finish third rather than second. That’s why Labor runs unheard of 20 year-old candidate in seats where Independents could beat a Liberal or National candidate, ensuring Labor finishes third. You can also engage in strategic preference swaps, such as the one Labor did with Family First in the Senate in 2004. But as the Labor Family First deal also showed, such strategic swaps are much harder to organise.
Julie, Rudd has already stipulated that if elected he’ll live in the Lodge, Howard’s excuses for Kirribilli were spurious, supposedly his kids education, Kirribilli had far more to do with Jeanette’s preference for Sydney and the harbour views than anything else, Kirribilli should be handed over to a national trust, god alone knows how much damage has been done to that beautiful old stately building by Mrs Howard’s middle class taste in renovations, i know she had a lot of the lovely antique furniture put in storage and replaced with green leather lounges etc, sigh, Kirribilli should be given back to the people and used for the benefit of everyone as part of our heritige.
Was interesting reading earlier posts regarding seats such as O’Connor and Barker switching from Liberal to National. Whilst plausable in theory, especially considering the nature of the sitting Liberals, such a scenario falls face over apex in reality ….. namely the state of the National Party in both states.
With O’Connor, the Nats do hold state seats inside the boundaries of this seat but these are all situated in the southern half and this seat ranges as far north as Geraldton. Does the WA National party actually have the resources to mount the campaign necessary to win a seat of this size; man the booths across the seat ??
Similarly with Barker. The Nats hold Chaffey in the Riverland (albeit in coalition with state Lab govt) and do poll quite well federally in this area but what is their presence down south ?? What is their presence in Mt Gambier (the fuedal possession of Allan Scott) and again, where are their resources to campaign across this seat ??
Clearly unfit for public office. He should be drummed out of the party.
Does he even deserve to be a citizen?
I like the Australian for its more political stories,comments etc. Would be good if it was unbiased and gave parties like the Greens more publicity but the Advertiser here is useless and wishy washy. I thought political junkies would like reading anything political be it Right, Left or in between
this is scary http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/us-planning-surgical-strikes-on-iran/2007/10/01/1191090982046.html
Thanks Crikey Whitey (post 188) – yeh I agree with you on that – I don’t think Nicole Cornes will sway those voters who may have changed from Liberal to Labor – I know some Lib voters who may possibly have voted Labor this time but I don’t think they will now….which is a pity ’cause I would love Boothby to be out of the grips of Andrew Southcott – seen him in action and what a wet ineffectual rag he is. As I said earlier though, I am looking at the bigger picture of voting out Howard so I am going to vote for her and I am sure there are other Labor supporters in Boothby who will do the same. I also know other Labor voters who have said they will vote for the Greens candidate instead – I am not sure who the Greens will give their preferences to in Boothby…usually it is Labor isn’t it? Anyway looks like we will be waiting a while to vote with the latest Newspoll out today – Howard is going to drag this out for ages!!!!
Nah, I doubt he’d retire.
Costello yes. Lucrative boardroom positions beckon and he doesn’t have what it takes to rebuild the party, or endure at least 2, possibly 3, defeats before the coalitian are back in the hunt.
But who would employ Lexy?
Plus if he believes that defeat is inevitable he might just be tempted to sneak some of the “lot of things I want to do” through knowing that it will take Labor at least 6 or 7 months to undo, if they can. Beware the bloke who has nothing to loose!
Barrie Humphries, and employment in the Dame Edna Everage show, as Sir Leslie Patterson’s twin brother Sir Lexy Patterson, in drag at diplomatic parties.
(Otherwise, like Barrie, making detergent ads: “I was at this diplomatic do…Yuuuuk”)
That’s interesting, I thought Dolly Downer would find gainful employment helping out Barrie (in his Dame Edna role) by pinning name badges onto unsuspecting celebrities … whilst wearing his fishnets of course.
Just saw this. I am on Andrew Bolt’s side. That is wrong. I feel horrible and yucky. You bois who hate Ms Cornes must be right if Andrew if with me.
ShowsOn @ 236 – Mark Kenny is PRO-Rudd? Jeez! You wouldn’t think so by reading anything he’s written lately. Much of it has been shameless Howard arse-licking.