Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: September 2007

Galaxy Senate poll

GetUp! has published a poll of Senate voting intention it commissioned from Galaxy. The survey of 1004 voters was conducted from September 7-9, and shows the Labor vote up from 35 per cent to 39 per cent from the 2004 election, the Coalition down from 45 per cent to 35 per cent, the Greens up [...]

Phoney war dispatches: last Question Time edition

It could well be the last Question Time edition …
• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that the Prime Minister is “considering calling the election within three weeks”. A return of parliament on October 15 is not ruled out, but is rated “unlikely”.
• The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly cumulative polling, broken down into state-by-state [...]

Seat du jour: Hasluck

Located in Perth’s eastern suburbs, Hasluck was created when Western Australia gained an extra seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. As my maps for Crikey illustrate, it consists of three distinct population areas which lean to Labor in the north and south, and to the [...]

Phoney war dispatches: wacky Wednesday edition

• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various [...]

Other places

Once the preserve of a small band of moody loners, online psephology is becoming a boom industry as the federal election approaches. I have added a roll of external links to my sidebar for non-partisan sites specifically dedicated to the election, which are detailed below. Readers are invited to alert me to any sites meeting [...]

Newspoll: 55-45

Seven News has reported that the most keenly awaited opinion poll in recent memory, tomorrow’s Newspoll, will show “a significant shift back to the Coalition” from last fortnight’s 59-41.
UPDATE: The ABC now reports the Coalition has “clawed back eight points”, hence the new headline.
UPDATE 2: Report up at the News site confirms the headline figure, [...]

Morgan: 53-47 to Labor in Bennelong

Today’s Fairfax broadsheets carry a Morgan survey of 472 voters conducted in Bennelong on Friday and Saturday, which shows Maxine McKew leading John Howard 53-47 on two-party preferred and 45.5 per cent to 42.5 per cent on the primary vote. Under the circumstances, the Prime Minister would be greatly relieved – the result is no [...]

Phoney war dispatches: what the papers say

• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports the blue-ribbon Melbourne seats of Kooyong (9.8 per cent) and Goldstein (10.0 per cent) are in danger of falling “because John Howard has refused to move aside”. This is according to a “senior Liberal figure” who desribes the Prime Minister’s new position on the leadership as a “catastrophe” [...]

Seat du jour: Braddon

The electorate that covers the north-west of Tasmania assumed its current name of Braddon in 1955, having earlier been called Darwin. It currently covers the north coast from Port Sorell and Latrobe west through Devonport and Burnie to Smithton, along with 100 kilometres of the sparsely inhabited west coast and inland wilderness around Waratah. From [...]

Albert Park and Williamstown by-elections live

ALBERT PARK
RAW
ADJUSTED

Vote
Swing
Vote
2PP

Martin Foley (Labor)
47.3
5.1
46.1
59.0

John Middleton (Greens)
27.8
9.1
28.2
41.0

Cameron Eastman (Family First)
4.8
3.8

Adrian Jackson (Independent)
1.0
-0.2

Shane McCarthy (DLP)
1.8

Paul Kavanagh (Democrats)
4.7

Prodos Marinakis (Independent)
5.4

John Dobinson (Independent)
0.8

Nigel Strauss (Independent)
6.5

COUNT
78 %

.
9.55pm. Long-delayed final two-party booth for Albert Park now in, Labor’s 2PP on 57.7 per cent.
9.12pm. Postal votes now added.
8.49pm. Turnout in Albert Park not too bad: 25,669 polling booth votes cast (including informal) [...]