Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 48 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd has taken a slight hit on his satisfaction rating, down from 65 per cent to 62 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
570 Comments
Thats some relief.Phew!!!
Leadership battles back on agenda?
I don’t think so, you’d need a 58 / 42 rogue for that.
I just don’t see the polls narrowing, so what does Howard gain by waiting? What if the polls get worse, what does he do then, wait until January? Surely that would be electoral suicide.
excellent
should make it a good week for labor.
While the other polls have jumped all over the place, Newspoll has been remarkably stable these last few months (Jumping between 55/56 ALP TPP with 1 outlier.)
Makes Morgan look silly with its 54% ALP primary and frequently large fluctuations. As i said in the other thread, this election will be the nail in Morgan’s coffin.
#1: This result will not produce leadership battles.
The latest mumblings that I’ve heard on the grape vine is a call this weekend for November 17.
There must be some Nervous backbenchers around, Solomon must be witten off, the biggest campaign noise we have up here was Senator Johnston up here trying to flog off some CCT systems.
Great result for Labor. Pardon the conspiracy theory, why is it out a day early?
It would have been far worse for the Government if there had been the usual heightened pre-poll speculation and then this result showing the govt going backwards.
Has News offered an explanation?
Ordinarily there would’ve been an AC Nielsen in the Fairfax press today, but that didn’t happen, perhaps because of the additional internet poll last week. Maybe News Ltd. found out there wouldn’t be a Nielsen today, but there may be another one later this week, so they wanted to release first?
Just my guess.
Presumably polls cost more to conduct over long weekends, so Newspoll brought everything forward a day.
Nielsen isn’t due out until next Monday.
Aren’t they prohibited from calling on long weekends? Or do they just avoid calling out of courtesy, or perhaps because so many people are away it ruins their figures.
Maybe they put it out early as today is Day Zero for a 33-day campaign ahead of a 3 Nov election?
That is the first step in the so-called “significant shift of a forthnight ago being eroded. 55-45 seems to be the minimum figure in the polls at this stage. When was the last time there were polls consistently under 55 (or at least 2 in a row?
George Megalagorgeous was correct on Insiders yesterday morning with the idea that there haven’t been two good polls in a row for JWH. A good one comes along and the next one is bad.
Just looked at the Newspoll site and it would seem the last two consecutive polls under 55 were in November last year and there has only been one other since. OUCH
So, this inevitable narrowing of the polls….
Did anyone remember to invite it along for this election?
there has been a lot of speculation everywhere about when The Rodent will call the election.
one thing is for certain.
it will be called before Oct 9. there will not be another parliament sitting.
i would have thought everyone would know JWH by now and how his mind works. there is no way he will allow anyone to call him scared by going beyond Oct 9 and the 3 year term.
Re HarryH @ 14
“There is no way he will allow anyone to call him scared by going beyond Oct 9 and the 3 year term.”
However, his 3 years isn’t technically up until 16 November. If there’s a way to argue he still has time he’ll argue it.
I still don’t understand why if they’re internal polling is so great they haven’t just called the election. Rubbish about the grand finals is unbelievable as it hasn’t stopped them in the past.
The rodent is so fixated on himself he can’t see what happening around him.
Australia wants him gone and he just wont see it, he is so blind to reality. Must be loads of fun to be a Lib. backbencher!
Like I have said in other fora….
The only real poll is the one on election day. While I despise and detest JWH (our very own homegrown Bonsai Bush), he IS a very wiley and tricky campaigner. Rudd must not let up the pressure on him until the poll day, or else this could become 1998 Mk II. Howard only needs one mistake on Labor’s part – then his pet hounds in the media can howl at Rudd, deafening the voters with their endlessly-repeated mantras of “Rudd’s incompetant”, “Rudd: the Union Puppet” etc. etc. etc. My analysis of hte media’s impact (and their eternal hostility to the ALP) is such that I have put $20 in a private bet on a Liberal win.
Don’t get complacent, Rudd, and the victory may be yours. As far as I’m concerned, that would be $20 well spent.
Come on Howard Huggers! Where are you all?
56/44 surely means its all over for Rudd and Howard is coming back with a vengeance!
(BTW – I am still guessing a 24 November election, and I dont think November is ‘late’ either)
Just read articles from Shanahan and Milne in the Government Gazette – do they write this stuff with a straight face?
I’m struck by Dennis Shanahan’s lead article accompying today’s poll. I talks in measured tones of the poll hloding steady since June at 56 or so for labour. No more “narrowing” no more cant about the preferred PM numbers. It could almost have been written by Possum or Peter Brent. He’s having one of his periods of calm rationality. The medication must have kicked in.
I agree BrisstRod, they are living in la la land. Must be hard for them everyday to be howard huggers and have to put some positive spin on it all. Shame they are so blind that they can never just say that we, the Australian people, want Howard gone and Rudd in.
There is a tone of quiet desperation in Shanahan’s piece. The bias is still there – as in portraying Howard’s manipulation of the polling date to suit his own agenda as ‘perfectly reasonable’ (I assume Shanahan counts himself as one of Howard’s ‘friendly advisers’) – but the false bravado has gone. I suspect he now believes the situation is beyond redemption. Bolt and Albrechtsen have already come to terms with this possibility. The question is, can Shanahan, Milne and Akerman, or are we going to be witnessing some legendary scorched earth journalism over the next few weeks?
I hate to harp on about the GG, but Rudd is really going to cop it from them during the campaign.
Just check out the Australian’s headlines in reaction to the llatest Poll:
“Dennis Shanahan: Only one choice for Howard: hold off
Report: Rudd dodges union’s admission on funds
Editorial: Campaign cheques Labor can’t cash
Glenn Milne: Arts community should back Howard.”
Gee, that’s balanced coverage!!
I think we finally have the real state of affairs here. Either that 59-41 was an outlier, or was affected by JWB turning up and causing Howard to look even worse. The election will likely be 55-45 or thereabouts unless there’s some major issue that causes a shift one way or another.
Wasn’t it nice, too, to see that Shanahanahan pointed out the drop in Rudd’s approval rating, but failed to mention that Howard’s approval rating also dropped (albeit by less) ?
I actually think there’s a chance the election might be called today. I suspect that the Libs might be thinking that, with the primary and 2PP votes pretty much flatlining, the only way to pull anything back is to start the contest for real.
Has anyone noted a dropoff in the Workchoices ads? I didn’t see a single one during the NRL Grand Final but then I didn’t watch the whole thing.
Kit (20) – I totally agree. It’s the reason I took their website out of my Bookmarks, so I’m not tempted to go there, unless it’s to read the Newspoll numbers.
I used to read it to gauge the thoughts of the conservatives on the current state of affiars, but I don’t even do that any more. I wish there was something more that could be done, other than writing nastigrams to the editor.
Correction to (21) – I meant GWB and not JWB.
Rejoice,
Maintain the faith – the polls show we are on track for the Gambino crime family to replace the Genovese crime family. Things are on the up and up.
Were the figures released a day early so that they’d be buried in grand final celebrations and the long weekend in NSW?
I thought the numbers may have been higher, especially with Abbotts opportunistic remarks about the North Shore hospital.
It was in the same style as former liberal premier Sir Eric Willis who said after the Granville train tragedy that less people were killed in train accidents under the former liberal government.
Willis resigned in the public outcry that followed, but in this case Howard endorsed Abbotts remarks.
It appears the figures come from the usual Friday to Sunday polling, ie. 28 to 30 Sep. who nows why they have released them early?
No anxious wait for ABC 7pm News or Lateline
It is excellent news.
The News Ltd. papers seem to be in full spin mode ever the poll, lots of use of creative english….
I love the comment “Ministers don’t expect the poll to narrow until the election is called, and even then, only in the last few weeks”.
They hoping for a hockey stick graph? I’ve worked for a few companies who had that graph in their financial plans – they all went out of business.
ESJ @ 24
There is no chance of the Nats forming government but a good chance of Ness and the untouchables getting in.
I pretty-well completely agree with Shanahan’s case for Newspoll being the bellwether poll. Whether it’s right or wrong, it’s the bet settler.
Imagine if the weather report at 10am determined the whole day’s slant on matters meteorological. If it’s fine and sunny at 10am, then it doesn’t matter if a Southerly arrives at 10.30am, the temperature drops to 16 degrees and it rains for the rest of the day. Bet on the day’s weather would be settled at 10.01am and the evening news bulletins would be announcing “It was a lovely day in Sydelaide today.” Silly, I know, but that’s also what happens with Newspoll. Newspoll is used to start – or stop – arguments.
It’s as if everybody agrees to abide by it’s findings. Individuals may not agree on those findings (many here don’t at times). There may even be more or less encouraging private polling that says different to Newspoll. But it seems the movers and shakers don’t care about their private opinion. They don’t care about what Newspoll thinks, but they do care about what they think others will think about Newspoll.
From what I’ve seen Newspoll is no more accurate than other polls. Even the GG’s own journalists (when it suits them) will tell us that it shows a bias towards Labor. At other times their spruiking of miniscule movements (viz. the Preferred PM fiasco of a couple of months ago) is shameless. The chief spruiker is Dennis Shanahan, followed closely by Sid Marris.
Well, they’ve made their own beds. They used a reasonably good Newspoll for Labor to get rid of Beazley last December. They built up expectations after APEC, Burkegate, Long Tan, Eumundiegate, Strippergate and Theresereingate.
Shanahan says that back benchers have an unsophisticated understanding of polling (pot, meet kettle!). I’m not so sure of that. I just think it’s the de facto bellwether, the poll used to settle bets and ramp up ambitions (or close them down). It’s as useful as that 10am weather report I mentioned above. It has an undeserved reputation for accuracy and import.
But as long as everybody uses it as a snapshot, to decide whether it’s fine and sunny or cold and wet for the rest of the day, it fulfills a function, as do Shanahan’s and Marris’s pontifications upon it, and for that matter Possum’s, who at the moment is under some criticism for making up 52 seat swings… His defence is, “That’s what Newspoll says.”
Shanahan and the GG have created a Frankenstein’s Monster Poll. The idea was for it to show a narrowing. They can’t back away from Newspoll’s contrary findings that it’s a fine and sunny day for Labor now and a Perfect storm for Howard.
#178 Sanjay the Omnipresent from phoney war. Yes, I have always suspected that about Adam being a Liberal stooge, especially when he was in denial about the hot button issues being 1. Work choices. 2. Global Warming 3. Nuclear Power.
RBJ @ #26… “It was in the same style as former liberal premier Sir Eric Willis who said after the Granville train tragedy that less people were killed in train accidents under the former liberal government.”
It was even better than that, arbie.
He said that during his government only 7 (or some small amount) of people had been killed in rail accidents. The toll was already 84 under Labor.
Labor had only been in government for a few weeks.
Shanahan may be calmer on the lead article but he still can’t resist with the reference elsewhere today to the ‘forlorn hope’ – he should be honest and say his hope – that Rudd’s ’sheen has lost some gloss’. Look…Rudd will indeed lose some of his sheen – around the end of his second term most likely.
#14 HarryH
no October sitting = no party room meeting = no leadership challange. That us unless Downer et al get ‘creative’ as Labor did in 1983.
A general question about the poll date.
We had Costello at the NRL grand final breakfast hinting strongly at the last week of November and the Liberal pollster on Meet the press on Sunday call it at 24 November then look sheepish that he did.
This seems pretty emphatic to me but nobody else is firming on it. What do other people think?
I love Dennis. You have to laugh when he calls Rudd’s performance in the last day of parliament “Shrill”. The friends I’ve talked to said it was nice to see him go on the attack and that he showed up Costello for the gutless wonder he is.
I was just surprised he didn’t say anything about soft labour support.
I agree with other posters here about the Australian today. I had to read the articles twice to be sure. Not a single negative for the govt anywhere. Matt Price is the only one who still has a sense of reality about him. The rest of them are in denial. But wait, there is still a circuit-breaker. Call the election, then we’ll see the real figures. Ha!
From Dennis, “There is also a mounting view that Kevin Rudd will suffer the longer the election campaign runs.”
Why Dennis, why? Where is your evidence … We’ve been hearing this statement in 400 different forms since Rudd took the leadership but nothing has changed.
The bias is not exclusive to The Oz. Philip Coorey from the SMH sees grave dangers ahead for Rudd: Slip-ups leave Rudd vulnerable to attack
“The polls have Labor, on average, leading the Coalition by between 10 and 12 percentage points. Despite this, there is a lot stacked against a Labor victory.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/slipups-leave-rudd-vulnerable-to-attack/2007/09/30/1191090938530.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Presumably Howard with incumbency behind him, is just plain sailing all the way to victory.
It is interesting to watch the MSM living in a parallel universe completely removed from reality. Has Phillip Coorey read the polls and does not understand numbers? Maybe numbers are just plain irrelevant on election day? And journalists get paid for this stuff?
The mounting view of Rudd having a tougher time in the campaign (post 38) is due to the fact that the “mounting view” early in the year was that Howard would eventually wear down Rudd. If your options are narrowing, you have to grab at something, and that’s what the Coalition is doing. I’ve heard some backbenchers claim that while the polls might be bad, Crosby-Textor internal polling has them doing very well on the “name recognition” question. All it shows is the desperation for good news (remember Howard leaking the Eden-Monaro polling?) to boost morale in the government and give marginal MPs a reason to keep battling on.
As for the conspiracy of the Australian trying to bury its story in the grand final coverage – come off the grassy knoll and head to Area 51! The closer to the date of the election, the more polls will be done with each paper trying to get an edge over the others. Nielsen will go to weekly once the poll is called, and with the possible dates to call the election fast disappearing, it appears the Australian just wanted to get a march on the others.
Phillip coorey writes a stupid article in the SMH this morning. He’s rabbiting on abotu Rudd “gaffes”. This time Rudd’s claim to have not read certain GG news article about Papua New Guinea…
I sem to remember a constant tactic of Howard is to claim exactly the same thing: ignorance of a newspaper article.
Why the two standards?
Graphs are up here: http://fairnews.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=58&Itemid=1
My graphs are up.
Dennis never fails to amuse.
You know, all empirical evidence (eg ‘who do you think will win’ polls, and betting markets) suggests the average punter understands the polls far better than you Dennis, and your circle-jerk coterie of poll-owning , gatekeeping wankers posing as ‘experts’.
You are all heading for a gross humiliation, GG. Turn around now, save some dignity! There is no bounce, there is no evidence to support any “mounting view†on anyting other than electoral trouble for yer man Rodent.
Shanninigans says that the coalition must delay the election for as long as possible to try and gain support.
He then… IN THE VERY SAME ARTICLE, says that the government should call the election immediately as the poll numbers weren’t getting any better the longer the campaign draws out.
I can’t understand how announcing a date is going to improve things for the government.
My guess about why Newspoll out today – they are sick of it being leaked to other news outlets and being released early!
Coonan is saying voters should think long and hard about voting for Labor. Perhaps she has forgotten that for the last 18 months or so that the Australian people have been thinking long and hard about voting for Labor.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22510595-29277,00.html
I’ve gone back over the last 6 months of Newspolls as found that “undecided’ has been pretty stable at 4-5% but today it jumps to 7%. Is this just statisical noise or is someones vote softening? I was talking to a lifelong Liberal voter over the weekend and he was very conflicted about voting for Howard again. If anyones got some views on this I’d love to hear them.
Another great result…& now for something different…Nicholson’s animation @ the Oz. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,36,00.html
Unless of course Labor win the election 59/41
Phillip Coorey’s article also contains the furphy that because the Coalition is 10% behind in the polls they only need 5% or 1 in 20 of voters who say they are to vote Labor to switch.
In reality, the 5% they need must come from Labor’s figure of 55% as the other 45% are already voting Coalition. In other words they need 1 in 11 to change or 9% to change from Labor to Coalition.
With the polls now showing 56-44 they now need about 1 in 9 to change their vote.
All this is of course assuming their is no movement in the other direction.
It’s reported, today’s Newspoll will ensure the election will be called for late November or early December. What they are really saying is “just one more round, Angie, just one more round…..”
A pugilistic analogy explains it here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=749
“22
Scotty Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 7:22 am
Kit (20) – I totally agree. It’s the reason I took their website out of my Bookmarks, so I’m not tempted to go there, unless it’s to read the Newspoll numbers.
I used to read it to gauge the thoughts of the conservatives on the current state of affiars, but I don’t even do that any more. I wish there was something more that could be done, other than writing nastigrams to the editor.”
Yes there is something you can do. Why buy any News Ltd papers if they are going to make themselves the enemy of Labor and campaign against them during the election? Labor supporters ought to be uspset with unbalanced publishing/reporting designed to support Howard. How many Labor supporters currently buy News Ltd papers?
Re Rudd losing his “sheen” – I think it’s pretty arguable (including the mass booing delivered to Howard by the crowd at the NRL grandfinal last night) that the longer Howard holds off calling the election the more “sheen” HE is losing.
Hard to give “internal” party polling much credence when it goes against almost every finding of all the major professional pollsters over a period of many months. What do internal party pollsters know that the professional guys do not?
The stuff leaked from the Liberal camp “showing” that things are not as bad as commonly believed, is, I believe, intended to bolster the confidence of the party faithful, to forestall a revolt on the Rodent’s leadership.
Anyone seen any movement by local Lib MPs that the election might be called today? All quiet here ATM. Richardsons office is dead but he did have a BBQ for his staff last Sunday.
Will Says: “Coonan is saying voters should think long and hard about voting for Labor.”
Coonan is also doing her block (The Daily Telegraph) about Telstra “wasting money” urging its 1.6 million shareholders to confront Howard’s Mob on its Broadband policy … (NB Ms C, protecting shareholder interests is its CEO’s and Board’s responsibility – your Mob privatised it; your mob favours a foreign telco; you get to wear Aussie shareholers’ ire!!)
Add Broadband policy to Iraq, “non-core promises”, work choices, climate change, Quarantine debacles like Fire Ants Citrus canker & Equine Flu, Gov “advertorials” and recycled road “funding” (5 times for Toowoomba’s Range Road; 2 for the Warrego Highway’s Ipswich Road section), and one begins to wonder about the political IQ level of Howard’s cabinet …
But not about why Howard was booed (most recently) at the RL final’ or why the polls are not narrowing!
I like the Australian for its more political stories,comments etc. Would be good if it was unbiased and gave parties like the Greens more publicity but the Advertiser here is useless and wishy washy. I thought political junkies would like reading anything political be it Right, Left or in between
I find the MSM bias against Labor infuriating too but it could very well help Labor. If everyone starts writing off the government we may find many swinging voters deciding vote coalition to maintain a balance, thinking that Labor will get in easily. I really don’t think Labor will be unhappy with this interpretation of the present polls by the GG and others.
Mumble is reporting that “Out a day early. Rumour has it they threw in some extra questions which we’ll read about tomorrow.”
Hmmmm – wonder what?!?! More leadership speculation?!
Rx @ 53:
Maybe there is some truth in what they say. Possum’s analysis of Newspoll reveals that, with the exception of Victoria, polling in marginal seats is doing (slightly) better than the headline Newspoll figure for the Government. This is maybe what is reflected in the ‘leaked’ polling.
Of course, they are also doing significantly worse in safe Government seats, to an extent that they have had to widen the number of seats which they are seeking to defend. This is Possum’s thesis: that if they are doing better in the marginals than the headline figure suggests, then the swing has to be coming from *somewhere*. In this case, “safe” Government seats. They choose not to leak this
Of course, with a 10-12% TPP shortfall, even if you are doing ’slightly better’ in the marginals, you’re still going to lose an awful lot of these, let alone some seats you thought you wouldn’t see change hands.
There’s no point whatsoever in boycotting The Australian out of principle. Murdoch has never cared about circulation – he cares about having the national paper of record and the paper that political insiders read.
Between Sky News and The Australian, he dominates the media in Parliament House even more than he does in the rest of the country. Frankly, the only circulation numbers he’s interested in are those in a few postcodes in the ACT.
This morning Centrebet back out to $3.15 for Coalition, $1.37 for Labor.
The Politics of Affluenza by Clive Hamilton at page 139 (published 2005)
“As long as we remain preoccupied with house prices, credit card debts, interest rates, tax cuts and getting ahead financially – in other words as long as define our success in life through money – Labor can expect to win an election only by mimicking the Liberal Party”
So how exactly would a Labor government be different?
Another nail in the Howard Govt’s coffin!!!!
Excellent!!!
Fingers crossed the same scenario as played out in Ireland plays out here in Australia and Howard is returned.
With respect to Helen Coonan telling us to think carefully about our vote she should tend to her portfolio a little closer & deal with Telstra kicking her & the government in the shins. Looks like Telstra has thought about it too!
Its a sad state when in the public debate of current politics that all you hear from the government side is that the opposition has a ‘lack of experience’ to do the job. Is this a short cut to thinking?
If this argument was to be the yardstick by how politics where run in Australia then their will never be a change of government on any level.
Also lets remember that they cry aloud at how many unionist are candidates for Labor. Please lets stop this ideology bashing & scare mongering that paints a unionist candidate as some sort of green eye monster that would wreck the nation. Lets remember that unions have helped a lot to get us our high standard of living that we enjoy today & the work entitlements that we enjoy. How can any rational political party demonise them for that.
Australian don’t like this American style IR system & the polls reflect that so if it’s a ‘Workchoice’ between Howard & Rudd then Labor will win & win well.
Thanks for the North Korean news agency slant on politics AussieGuru01.
Given its the only national newspaper insiders in the national capital dont have much choice do they? The OZ is atrocious and to state the obvious stridently anti-union and anti-labor so muc so its almost a badge of honour. When was the last time it turned its blow torch on the employer organisations in the same way it does to trade unions?
Actually Charlie 59 there is a point about considering a boycott. The SUN newspaper in England has been boycotted on Merseyside after its disgusting reporting after the 1989 Hillsborough statdium tragedy involving the deaths of many Liverpool fans. Its been suggested this boycott has cost Murdoch 55 million pounds ($130 million)australian and counting since then.
Analysing the polls. An interesting article on the ABC site.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/01/2047469.htm
I can see the Liberal apologists already saying, “The ABC is biased”.
What they really mean is the ABC doesn’t promote Liberal propaganda”.
Hmm 66 – unlike the Liberals the Labor front bench is overwhelmingly made up of people from unions which represent 15% of the private sector workforce. There’s a fair point that they are wildly unrepresentative of anyone but themselves.
No problems Eddy. a reality pill is good for ya!!
Some one has to tell John of Melbourne he’s dreaming.
While on the topic of the biased Murdoch stable, any speculation on what open Liberal loyalists like Akerman will do if Labor wins?
68, Its a Labor party, a Labor party. You’d expect its members to come from the trade union movement wouldn’t you? Maybe you wouldnt.
Anyway whats that got to do with the lack of accoutability of employer organisations? Many members are not happy that their fees have been spent on these ads supporting workplace ‘reform’.
Unions are accountable to their members not the leader writers of the OZ.
The implied 2PP swing is about 8.5% away from the coalition – or greater than any swing recorded since 1966. It is probably not going to get much better for Labor than this and therefore Howard will be encouraged to wait even longer before calling the election. He clearly wants time to maul Rudd, hoping to dragg down Rudd’s approval advantage. On the other hand, every day that passes is another opportunity for Rudd to campaign and another day of frustration for the electorate.
This means Howard has been reduced to using a strategy of the last resort: deny the accuracy of the polls, attack Rudd, try bribing the marginals and hope for something to turn up.
It also means that Howard will be seen to be manipulating the electoral process. This is not going to sit well with voters who are already fed up with him and who have long since learned to mistrust the Government.
If he had a single shred of decency in him, Howard would call the election now. That he won’t do so just confirms what everyone knows: Howard is a most self-serving politician!
Lol, thanks Chris B but I do hope it happens.
Blindoptimist Howard should and will go when he thinks he can win. Besides us political tragics are the only ones who give a rats when he calls the election most punters don’t even care.
Jon @58, I thought I read that the swing to Labor is higher in the marginals than in the non-marginals. Regardless, the hope is that the swing is enough in both to give an emphatic defeat to the government.
72 – Yes its a Labor Party – an unrepresentative Labor Party.
Tell me TC – when did Greg Combet or Bill Shorten ever get there hands dirty working in their respective industries? Hmmm?
73 – Spot on with the analysis – Howard needs a shift of 3-4% in the primary to be competitive. Of course he is going to fight to the death, did anyone really expect him to meekly surrender?
Eric Willis – now there’s a name to conjure with. He was of course Howard’s third most fave politician and along with the vile Carrick his mentor and sponsor in the early days. of sein Kampf
Far be it from me to defend the dreaded MSM but there is an imperative to try to get some interest out of the polls. Like the 4th quarter of the grand final something of interest has to be found. Speculating about possibility of closer contest at least adds some interest.
Well it says here on a list leaked to me by someone that he is to be taken to a camp in Brewarina for errr… re-education and training.
You’re not going to tell us that the Coalition frontbench is a representative cross-section of the workforce, are you? What proportion of the workforce is made up of lawyers, do you think? Less than the proportion on the Coalition frontbench, that’s for sure, and less than 15% by a long way.
Edward St John is the nominated right wing ’stirer of the day’ Edward you are welcome to dish out your opinions as you please …just raise the bar a little so we can appreciate you ‘rational’ rather than ‘hard-core dribble’ Thanks.
Edward, you promised us you were leaving for good. I’m very disappointed you have broken your word. Obviously this was a non-core promise. I see you are now resorting to the last resort of defeated conservatives, the old “it doesn’t matter who wins really, because nothing can ever change, the people are stupid and greedy, all politicians are crooks, and we’ll soon be back.” I know conservatism is a creed of applied cynicism, but such tired rubbish sounds bad even from you. On the other hand your defeatism is pleasing to see.
76 – When you have rich businessman & lawyers running the Government & telling the majority whats good from them ala workchoices then you will understand the importance of unions. Regards Bill Shorten getting his hands dirty I didn’t see much coming from management during the Beaconsfield mining disaster a year ago. Management did the normal & ran while Shorten fronted the media every day.
I wish the papers would point out that the movement in the polls is within the margin of error and that the trend is 55 – 45 TPP in Labors favour. I like my politics but I’m sick of polls.
Tell us again Edward why you think union members are so bad.
re Coonan, what makes her think “careful thought†will aid her side?
I have thought widespread distraction, or a sudden outburst of pure idiocy and ignorance would be their best punt.
There wont be a significant shift over the campaign either, Dennis. Surely that much is clear even to the most moon-baying, bunion-scratching, entrail-reading, evidence-averse, pre-enlightenment GG columnist.
J-D 80 I am going to tell you:
1. There is very little policy difference between Labor and Liberal ( WorkChoices and WorkChoicesLite basically)
2. Politics is an elite activity in this country – basically about 2000-3000 people count in each party as people who have a direct financial oer personal interest in an outcome – ie MP’, staffers, unions, etc, the difference for everybody else is marginal
3. The Labor party is significantly but not substantially more unrepresentative. Large numbers of people who have never done anything but work for an MP or union, dont have kids, run a small business etc. This Pakistan style clan politics is extremely unhealthy.
Oh Adam, I promised to return in November, I’m just a month early. Besides now that you have been exposed as a Liberal stooge by Sanjay arent we batting for the same side?
All you people complaining about the bias of the GG should calm down. Have a look at the circulation figures. It has a diminishing readership base and most of those who still buy it are people like us who laugh at its pretensions and its silly bias. The editorial last week about bloggers and polling was an example of its frustration at losing its gate keeper role. Suddenly out there are all the real poll readers who analyze the figures as they are, not as Shanahan does who ignores them and writes a fantasy commentary to fit in with what he thinks they should be.
I am sure people look at the GG on Newspoll days have a giggle at Shanahan and the rest of the GG gibberers and then get on to the bogs, Poll Bludger Mumble Possum etc.
That’s what the GG hates so much the kings new clothes syndrome. We can see they are naked. The other point is the puzzlement of all the Canberra Bureau, Coorey in the SMH Grattan in The Age and all at the GG.
They proclaimed that Rudd took a severe beating at hands of Costello in Parliament and then made a series of gaffes that would see his ratings slump. Well they didn’t. It shows how out of touch they are. Most non bureau people I speak to were horrified by Costello; red faced bullying bellowing. People hate it especially women. Also the Canberra Bureau mob keep saying Gillard is a negative in the electorate. I don’t think she is. Indeed it seems women love her (they haven’t forgiven the Libs for Heffernan’s barren remark) and she is in big demand around the place.
Hard to see the Libs coming back especially when you read the commentary of the bloggers on Howard’s lack of sparkle in election campaigns. How long can Howard wait?
85 GB – I dont think union members per se are any better or worse than non-union members. Its the structures that are corrupt.
#82 Adam: don’t forget to add to the conservative mix a good dose of union-bashing.
Hey Adam I figured who Edward St John really is… think about it… its John Howard!…LOL
@ 88 Edward StJohn Says:
Not so good at the reading and comprehension Eddie? Never mind, keep trying, you’ll get there in time.
81 dont encourge edward. its patently obvious we arent going to get anything that slightly resembles informed and mature opinion.
No, John, that is what Sanjay said, but I think he was joking.
Re Rx (72): What will Murdock columnists do?
My “have a buck on” list includes “Push for:
(1) employment figures calculation to revert to pre-Howard formula
(2) monthly balance of payments to attract the (usually hysterical) prominence they did pre-Howard
(3) the revival of the ‘Debt Truck’
(4) return to screaming “Debt!! Debt!!” and demanding the Labor Gov ‘factors in’ ALL fed. gov. borrowing and stop “telling lies” about being “debt free” when it is still borrowing in the way Howard still is (while claiming to be “debt free”)
And that’s just for starters!
GB 85 – dont think union members per se are any better or worse than non-union members. Its the structures that are not representative and the people they throw up.
47 – The only sheen Howard will retain is his resemblance to the cartoon character of the same name.
GK 83 – “management did the normal and ran away” – no actually they were co-ordinating the rescue mission whilst Bill Shorten mugged for the cameras.
But please dont let facts get in the way of spin.
TC 93 – dont do assertions only facts.
No such thing as a perfect world Eddy! Has workchoices bitten you on the backside yet? it sure bit me!…Up the unions.
ESJ 87 – Oh come on. I’m prepared to agree that political parties in Australia are run by ‘elites’ but it’s remarkably deluded to suggest the ALP is ’significantly’ worse. Even if 100% of their candidates came from a union background, this is still more representative than the Libs. Union reps do (or should have had) some manner of contact with working people on a daily basis. The workers make up the vast majority of the voting public. What’s the Libs method of recruiting in touch candidates – scouring merchant banks for people like Malcolm Turnbull? Yeah right.
Does anyone have a more complete report of how the crowd at the NRL grand final responded to John Howard? I have heard there was “booing”, bit I didn’t see the coverage.
Was the crowds response substantial?
In my time I have observed that if people vote conservative they are either a) uneducated or b) selfish.
There is no other classification, it’s the what’s in it for me or too dumb to know better. Surely you couldn’t vote conservative and have the betterment of the country in mind.
Didn’t John Stuart Mills say ” not all stupid people are conservative but all conservative people are stupid”.
So here we go, getting he business=great, unions=evil by a Liberal Party supporter. What a surprise.
I doubt the Australian people care either way if they’re represented by union officials or by lawyers/business owners etc. When they’re in government if they don’t convince me that they’re in touch and have a vision for the country that extends beyond themselves and sectional interests I’m not going to vote for them.
In this circumstance, I don’t believe the Liberal Party is serving the Australian people any more. If so, they wouldn’t have introduced a legislative package that they knew would disadvantage Australians. Now of course, there’s a real risk that the ALP will prioritise the unions above Australians, but I’m willing to take that risk at this stage. Should they abuse our trust we will vote them out.
Simple.
Well AG98 – I am afraid WorkChoices Lite wont take away the swelling.
Read the policy documents – KR did the deal with the business groups in September.
#68 Edward
Is it just me, or isn’t it obvious that people who subscribe to ‘Left’ (incl. Labor) philosophies would seek out ‘helping’ occupations such as teaching, welfare, unions etc, and that the best of them would rise to the top in those occupations. Similarly those who subscribe to the Right (incl Libs) would similarly worship Mammon, with the best and brightest rising to the top in those occupations. If we can agree on that then we shouldn’t be criticing Labor for the number of Union Officials it offers up to the Parliament – we should be asking the Liberals why they believe it satisfactory to offer a Parliament full of second-raters while their ‘best and brightest’ eschew public service in their quest for even greater executive salary packages.
Good old eric willis -Albert Ross i had completley forgotten the genesis of our current far-right Fed Gvt and Howards TRUE core values and beliefs
The remark after the granville train trajedy was the most obscene i had heard.
Wasnt willis named in the wood royal commission?
Edward I would rather some representative from the unions be around than the ‘lock up the gates’ mentality that the government!
“How many Labor supporters currently buy News Ltd papers?”
Well, I stopped buying any News Ltd papers a while ago, simply out of principle. Murdoch only has the power and influence he has because people buy his products. I don’t feel comfortable contributing to this, especially when Murdoch’s influence is filtered through a staunch neo-conservative ideology, and therefore what I believe to be ultimately destructive, both socially and economically.
Regarding Newspoll, it’s all ho-hum really. Nothing much has changed. Good news for Labor. Clinging onto a 3% fall in Rudd’s approval rating, from 65 to 62, is really desperate stuff — is this Shanahan’s latest “presage” to a coalition turnaround?
But as Gary Bruce mentioned, some of the pro-government spin on polling results is not really a bad thing for Labor. I agree that if it looks like being an easy win, some people might want to redress the balance by voting Liberal. By talking up the prospects of a Howard win and a Rudd downfall, the media are potentially making the vote for Labor even stronger.
Nevertheless, the bias on policy issues and other areas is purely shameless, but hey, if Labor win, then papers like the Government Gazette, are going to have some serious thinking to do. Murdoch won’t want government advertising to favour Fairfax or to lose advantage when it comes to insider scoops. I reckon there will be a lot of inner conflict starting to emerge in some of the Murdoch editors in the lead-up to the election. They will want to back Howard, especially the GG, but at the same time, they also have to run a business that depends to some extent on having tight links to government insiders, etc. It’s gonna be a tough call.
Of course, the ultimately sensible thing to do is to try to strike a balance in their coverage, but for some reason, that just never seems to happen when it comes to News Ltd. It’s either one way or the other, all or nothing, with them.
Edward 68 [unlike the Liberals the Labor front bench is overwhelmingly made up of people from unions which represent 15% of the private sector workforce. There’s a fair point that they are wildly unrepresentative of anyone but themselves.]
Unlike the ALP, the Liberals front bench is overwhelmingly made up of laywers, which represent far less than 15% of the workforce. What’s your point, or is this just the usual prattle?
I think Newspoll’s on the low side for Labor – you can look at Bryan’s Sept graphs for confirmation. The poll immediately after the Lib leadership fiasco was affected by a sympathy spike, and this poll could be affected by either the Grand Final distraction or simply margin of error. The true situation is likely 57-58 to Labor.
#84 John of Melbourne. If your sick of polls what are you doing here? Are you a masochist?
Edward st John
I think your letting spin get in the way of facts. The management used the union to present the public face. You forget this conveniently to attack unions. You make out that unions are some evil organisation. They represent people who don’t have a voice. But I guess you like the master & slave concept of work choices. Lets go back to the industrial revolution & lets use young kids to do the work. Without unions we would be using canaries in the mines to test the air. Give me a break.
Unicorn 49 [In reality, the 5% they need must come from Labor’s figure of 55% as the other 45% are already voting Coalition. In other words they need 1 in 11 to change or 9% to change from Labor to Coalition.
With the polls now showing 56-44 they now need about 1 in 9 to change their vote.]
You are overlooking the fact that the major parties never get less than 35% of the vote on primaries (even Latham got 37% or so!), as the rusted-ons will never change. That leaves only about 30% of voters who are realistically ’swinging’. So the Libs need 6% of the 30% to change their vote, which is 1 in 5. A very tall order with only a month or two left in which to do it.
One more time with feeling!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,36,00.html
enjoy!
Back on topic … that Newspoll of 59/41 was a bonus for Shanahan et al – otherwise the TPP would have been oscillating in a one-point range since about June (ie between 56/44 and 55/45). That one outlier generated four weeks of headlines and speculation. Especially handy since Dennis has gone a bit quiet over the other “key measure”, preferred PM …
The lack of REAL people in parliament is the problem. People that believe in what they are doing. That they serve the electorate from the heart. Both majors have few members that are like that. That is why they fear minor parties be it FF Greeens Dems or ON because rightly or wrongly these groups are more representative of people than the major parties whose support comes from the majority of people who don’t give a toss about politics.
What is the time that Howard could call an election ( mid afternoon? )
“That is why they fear minor parties be it FF Greeens Dems or ON because rightly or wrongly these groups are more representative of people than the major parties whose support comes from the majority of people who don’t give a toss about politics.”
FF or the Greens more representative of ‘people’ than the major parties? Hardly – they’re both quite niche.
As for Newspoll, it’s the trend that never ends, it just goes on and on my friend…
DA 112
You are WRONG
Federal Cabinet has
8 Lawyers
1 Stock Agent
2 Farmers
1 Doctor
1 Press Secretary
2 Party Hacks
1 Soldier
1 DFAT person (Downer)
1 Banker Turnbull)
The Labor Hack Factor – either unions or party officials is actually about 85% so I think the facts speak for themselves old son.
GK 111 – canaries in mines – obviously the 85% of Australians who arent in unions dont agree with your cliched view of the world.
RX @ 71
Easy. He’ll deny that it happened. Akkers doesn’t believe in polls. This will continue for about 18 months and then one day while chopping wood he nicks himself on the shin and the wound bleeds badly and the blood eventually drains from his eyes and – lo! – for the first time he can SEE! He looks up from his navel and sees PM Rudd on the telly and steps forward and declares:”Kevin … I love you.” Or something like that.
Dario,
Good point and in fact it’s even better because if the rusted on component of Labor’s vote is 35% then the non rusted on component is 20% and the 6% required must come from that. That is they would need 30% of the non rusted component to change(and not lose any of their own)
The Newspoll 56-44 is looking very solid with now a 9% gap in primary vote. I think sometimes the 2pp figure gets inflated by too high a preference flow but this one is assuming 8-5 which looks realistic.
Mark 99 – I saw the presentation for the NRL – the booing for Howard was certainly noticeable but not excessive.
Bill i think the lack of REAL people is a not just about the major parties i dont think the minor parties are very representative either of a broad cross section after all you have rabid socialists on the Greens side and rabid christians on the FF side and wannabe socialists on the Dems side.
One word sums up 95% of the posts on this thread…hubris…enjoy being ahead yes but to be bantering on about how the Liberals are going to lose is nothing short of outright hubris you havent won yet and won have until Howard concedes on election night unless that happens i wouldnt be declaring the election over the only thing it will do is make a possible Coalition victory all the more sweeter because of your hubris.
Need i remind you all that based on the latest newspoll the Liberal vote is 4% less and the Nat vote is 3% than in 2004 i am assuming the Nat vote will be around at least 5% on election day so that brings the Coalition’s vote to 41% and all the Liberal Party has to do is win back 4% of the vote to bring it back to 45% and then lets not forget about the 8% voting for Others and the 10% who were either uncommitted or refused and Labor’s inflated primary…to think Labor has it in the bag is very misguided because Rudd is going to be hurt by some cracker Coalition ads they worked a treat against Latham and they’ll stand a good chance of doing the same against Rudd…
Shaun Carney in The Age (25 August) reveals an aspect of the WorkChoices agenda not commonly recognised. That is, by legislating away unions’ effectiveness, an even greater membership drop will ensue. With that, the money they pass (as major donors) to the Labor Party will also fall.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/its-all-or-nothing/2007/08/24/1187462515465.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
The long and short of it is that WorkChoices agenda is to:
1) atomise workers, leaving them at the mercy of the Libs’ powerful business constituency
2) slash the funding base of Labor, helping to entrench the cosy Liberal/Business coalition
With the exception of a couple of polls, the 2007 trendline primary vote for the ALP has been a little over 47%. It is obviously going to take something pretty significant to materially reduce this seemingly rock-solid support.
In other threads, it has been suggested that a security issue such as an air attack by the US and/or Israel might be a plus for the coalition. The extent of Iran’s response to an attack might well determine its electoral importance in Australia.
There have been some interesting ’straws in the wind’ to the effect that the White House is in favour of more than a diplomatic response to what it sees as ‘unhelpful’ Iranian involvement in Iraq.
Consider, for example, the interview with Robert Bauer on Radio National Breakfast on August 30, 2007 in which the former high-ranking CIA agent said that his Pentagon sources had told him that an attack on Iran would almost certainly occur. See http://www.abc.net.au/rn/breakfast/stories/2007/2019388.htm
Also see this account of a Seymour Hersh article in the New Yorker which suggests ‘Australian interest’ in an air/missile attack on Iranian targets: http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/us-planning-surgical-strikes-on-iran/2007/10/01/1191090982046.html
When recently in New York, Alexander Downer had ‘unproductive’ talks with his Iranian counterpart. Defence Minister Nelson has also recently been ‘briefed’ on the Iranian position but has declined to comment on the issue.
So, perhaps, the Australian Government knows something that we do not and is factoring that knowledge into its election timetable.
Sorry William for the emphasis on Iran but it seems to me to be potentially very important. Should the mooted attack occur, it will, to say the least, be interesting to observe how it impacts on the current fairly settled domestic political scene.
Glen, I think it’s fair to say if the polls were reversed and showing the Coalition at 56% on the 2PP we’d be seeing a fair amount of ‘hubris’ coming from Liberal Party supporters. Some could even say people assuming that the Liberal Party will come back from these polls is a display of hubris.
Bill
I am sure that there a contradiction in what you say.
The majority of people who supposedly don’t give a toss about politics
(at least usually) deserve to have representation too.
If your party does not want to represent them, then it will be lucky to have anyone in parliament at all.
Edward StJohn
Please be accurate if you are going to quote 15% as union membership please add “private sector” to your posts.
Total union membership including the public sector is about 22%
PS: further to my #122, Andrew Charlton makes the same point, also in The Age (30 Sep).
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/pm-of-ulterior-motives/2007/09/29/1190486626917.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
ESJ 117 – So what proportion of the professions on your list exist to serve other people and not just to make money?? By my calculation 77% of the professions on your cabinet list there exist not to help society. I suspect it’s at least a similar proportion on the ALP side who formerly had professions that did exist only to help.
Face facts – to vote Liberal and be a Liberal MP you need only to look out for number 1. The selfish party.
Does it make you feel good to ingore society?
CTEP i think you wouldnt find as much hubris had the roles been reversed after all we ‘intelligent’ conservatives have to debate the masses of the proletariat on this blog for the most part and would not get away with displaying any hubris in the face of Paul k, Adam et al.
But its easy for the leftwingers to fall into the hubris trap because you are among many comrades here so its only natural, sure id be more confident but in an election campaign anything can happen…
Glenn 121 – For crying out loud mate, how many times do we need to go through this malarky about the National party vote?? Yes it may be under-represented in Newspoll versus what they get on election day, but you are assuming it’s being added directly to the ALP vote and therefore you slice some points off there to add it to the Nats.
How about this for a theory – the TOTAL coalition vote reported is correct, it’s the Libs who are overrepresented and the Nats that are underrepresented? Therefore to get the Nat vote, slice two points off the Libs.
Net effect is no change to the total numbers reported and the COALITION is on track to lose.
I think if you compare the total Coalition vote reported in Newspoll to what they get on election day, there is an equivalency there, therefore my theory is correct. Please stop spouting this other nonsense.
Edward Sin Gin – kerriiist! The ALP was founded by the union movement – not surprising some senior people are ex unionists. Re the Libs occupations, lets have the numbers for the whole minisitry, not just cabinet.
Gusface, it was Max Willis, not his brother Eric, who was named. But then so were many other, totally innocent people. That royal commission was a disgraceful piece of McCarthyism.
Quite simply keats the Bush is under represented in all polls therefore the ALP vote is inflated and thus can easily be taken from their column or from the Others…
Keats if you honestly think Labor’s primary is above 47% then that is complete and utter nonsense a rise of 10% in 3 years is bull butter to say the least sure between 5 and 10% but 10% hardly these polls have inflated Labors vote and just saying you’d vote Labor is different to actually voting for that rabble.
Adam, Sanjay was referring to your exposure of Noel Brunning as a stooge.
Not as loud as it would have been in Melbourne. [For I heard the boos at the A-League GF last year] For Sydney, it was substantial though. The crowds in Melbourne would have been much louder. There is more anti Howard sentiment there.
Centaur_007 @100.
Close; Mills said: “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservative.”
Good point Bill.
132 Glen Where’s your evidence the country is being under-represented in these polls? Perhaps a lot of people who they poll in the country are saying they’d vote Liberal, not thinking (or caring) they can only vote for a National candidate. These are the vagaries and distortions that are introduced by having Coalition candidates carve up seats. I reckon a lot of folks on the north coast of NSW (for example) would like to vote conservative and say ‘Liberal’ when asked, but on polling day only have the choice of voting National. This makes a lot more sense to me and backs up my earlier point about the total Coalition vote reported being correct. You haven’t offered any evidence to support your ‘country being underrepresented’ theory at all. So again please stop spouting this malarky.
“hubris”
Glen 121
Uh-oh. There’s some more of that damn hubricating going on. This time in broad daylight! Have we lefties no shame? Better break out the lube and the towels, just to be safe.
And has anyone ever seen Edward St. John and Steven Kaye in the same room at the same time?
Re Glen:
CTEP i think you wouldnt find as much hubris had the roles been reversed after all we ‘intelligent’ conservatives have to debate the masses of the proletariat on this blog for the most part and would not get away with displaying any hubris in the face of Paul k, Adam et al.
Ok then. I see what you mean in some ways. I read some comments on here and feel embarassed. I’d say a few people are more cautiously optimistic rather than hubristic. However, there’s nothing worse than false modesty if you are certain of a win. Can anyone at this stage be certain of a win? I’d argue no, but I’m sure some people would disagree with me.
I also completely reject that the conservative bloggers would be significantly less hubristic should they be so far in front in the polls. Personally I think any show of hubris is just leaving yourself open to attack when your side loses. ALP people here need to remember it’s a huge ask for them to win this election. It’s not over til it’s over.
There’s still work to be done but we’re headed in the right direction.
JW 134 – No I am sure Sanjay was referring to Adam as a closet Liberal stooge.
128 & 131 I will be providing details later today. I am off to enjoy a long liquid lunch provided by non-penalty & overtime “choiced” labour Lol.
Evidence?
Edward, you can’t count. There are 11 former lawyers in cabinet, over 60%:
Howard
Costello
Ellison
McGauran
Hockey
Bishop
Andrews
Coonan
Turnbull
Ruddock
Minchin
If anyone has any inside channels to get information on when the election might be, here is an idea. Check the usual haunts for Parliament when they are in session. [Anyone who has regular parliament contacts might know the places that "fit" this description]. See if they are still “booked” for the next Parliament session. If there is any inside word that in fact there WON’T be another parliamentary sitting, wouldn’t it be expected that those “bookings” will be cancelled? At least then we might have a window for the calling of the election.
All this debate over lawyers v union officials is silly.
It’s assuming that lawyers and union officials are nothing other than lawyers and union officials. I’d imagine they’re all mostly, husbands/wives, fathers/mothers etc. and of course have their own internal philosophies etc.
I’m sure we’re all sophisticated enough to separate people from their occupations. Unless you’re willing to admit you’re nothing but your job.
@ 140 Edward StJohn Says:
Your inclination towards counter-factual beliefs is noted.
Can one be a former lawyer? I don’t think so, unless one is struck off or defrocked or whatever happens to crooked lawyers.
McGauran has a law degree? I’m amazed. It must have been a mail order one from the University of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Julie that assumes that backbench Coalition members already know the election date and have made arrangements accordingly. I can assure you they don’t, and even if they did, they would still make all their normal arrangements for the 14 October sitting as a cover.
132
Glen Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 11:52 am
Quite simply keats the Bush is under represented in all polls therefore the ALP vote is inflated and thus can easily be taken from their column or from the Others…
Keats if you honestly think Labor’s primary is above 47% then that is complete and utter nonsense a rise of 10% in 3 years is bull butter to say the least sure between 5 and 10% but 10% hardly these polls have inflated Labors vote and just saying you’d vote Labor is different to actually voting for that rabble.
Glen, I acknowledge that you may be a great fan of stream of consciousness in your writing style.
Please try using punctuation, preferably of the standard sort, more often. It will make it easier for everybody else to follow your ideas.
Rx @ 126
Yes, it was a chilling summation of Howard’s manipulation of the political process.
Reminds me of my wife’s observation years ago that the libs don’t want workers’ kids educated because they might become intelligent – and vote labor.
Former or non-practising, call it what you will. They are all in politics now, and despite them passing ‘laws’ I wouldn’t call them lawyers any more.
I’ve just cleared 10 comments from moderation. Welcome back, ESJ.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
bugger all this political bickering
chris mainwaring is dead !
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22511069-2,00.html
Adam i don’t think you should be offending the Turk and Cacos islands residents here. i don’t think Magauran would be accepted there.
ESJ – nice to see you back. However, you seem to have hardened up since your last visit here. It’s good to know that all that Liberal shouting to their base about “union bosses” is working.
I’m wondering if Costello’s slips over the election date is just him trying to force Howard’s hand in calling the election: he wants Howard out of the way ASAP so he can finally get the leadership reins…if if its leader of the opposition.
ABC World Today. Chris Ullman (spelling?) says the government has given up believing the polls will turn. All hope now is on campaign, a long one.
I guess now we know why Howard is stalling calling the election. He’s waiting for his mate Bush to give him another Tampa…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/us-plan-to-bomb-iran/2007/10/01/1191090983037.html
135, its scary that this meagre 22% of the unionised workforce has the great politcal intellects of our time shivering in their boots. The Union bogey is the modern form of McCarthyism. The idea that this minority of the workforce is going to hold us decent folks to ransom in spite of the harshest anti-labour laws to this point in time suggests a lack of ideas on the Tory side of politics. Hopefully the years they will soon spend in opposition will cause some sober reflection that will give rise to some new ideas-but then again when have they ever had an original idea or an idea that didnt have its origin somewhere else?
Glen 142 – ‘the Bush is unrepresented in the polls?’ Mate – about 80 percent of Aussies live in the major cities and towns.
Quite simply the Unions knew they’d be finished if the Coalition was re-elected that’s why they have spent everything they’ve got to get Kev in because Kev is going to keep them alive one way or another…
But that cannot hide the fact that Unions are irrelevant to today’s workforce…if you cannot get more than 1 in 5 to join the Trade Union movement and with numbers continuing to fall its going to be a tough ask for Labor if they win to keep the Unions going…but i guess they’ll find a way with Crean, Combet, Shorten and Cameron et al on a possible Rudd front bench…
I’d rather have lawyers than union bosses running the country…for obvious reasons…
Rx all the way back at 58 (sorry, had to be away from the PC for an hour or two):
Looking at Possum’s Newspoll analysis, the swing in marginals is 8.3% compared with 11.6% in safe government seats, from an overall swing of 8.8% (this is based on the latest quarterly data released).
Possum does some psephological voodoo on the data but the pattern is essentially the same – larger swings in ’safe’government seats, lesser in marginals.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/09/30/my-what-a-big-swing-you-have/
if Bush decides to bomb Iran that should be a plus for labor, i dont think any Australians want to become involved in another of Bush’s gung ho wars, except of course for those pitiful few who see Howard as their allknowing god.
“Mills said: “Conservatives are not necessarily stupid, but most stupid people are conservative.—
Marilyn Monroe in Gentlemen prefer Blondes might have paraphrased it
“You don’t have to be stupid to be a Conservative, but my goodness, it’s a great big help”
Glen 170 – you just demolished the government scare about ‘union bosses’. If unions are irrelevant in the workplace, then they are irrelevant at all levels in society. The reality is that the unions lost their influence in the 90s when Keating ‘pulled their teeth’ (his words). That’s why Rudd is now able to stand up and say that HE will choose his ministers, not the union-based factions.
Re 157,
Adam, that was what I wanted to know. thanks
. Given the loose lips on the front bench, I didn’t figure anyone could keep a secret, but you never know …..
So why don’t they just call the election? What if the polls get worse, and they have even less time for the campaign?
Good. Labour unions are an important ingredient of any functioning democracy.
U_H_L_M_A_N_N
As the Libs plan on a long and dirty campaign (do they know any other sort?), it must worry them that an element in Labor’s enduring popularity this year is likely to have been a reaction-sympathy to the dirt and muck thrown at them non-stop by the tories.
With that in mind, they must be considering the discomfiting possibility that a particularly dirty campaign will hurt them (tories) more than it will their opponents.
The polls won’t improve until after the Election date is announced.
The Election date won’t be announced until the polls improve.
Looks like the GG will have to sack Howard and get Caretaker PM Rudd to announce the date ;D
Adam #156: “Can one be a former lawyer? I don’t think so, unless one is struck off or defrocked or whatever happens to crooked lawyers.”
Ouch! Of course you can! I haven’t practised law for around 20 years (and yes, I left voluntarily) and definitely consider myself a former lawyer.
Although some cruel folk have been known to refer to me as a “recovering lawyer”….
Good thing that they don’t give out citizenship based on what party you vote for as they let me in and I’m not voting for them. ;-D Amanda Vanstone’s stamped signature is on my citizenship certificate.
Actually Alex no. What is frightening about the Unions is that although they are growing increasingly irrelevant to society, Union officials represent at least 70% of Labor’s front bench giving them more power than they’ve had in a long time…if Rudd wins he’ll Combet and Shorten on the front bench two Union hacks….Rudd is only able to say that Alex if he brings Labor out of 11.5years of irrelevance but the factions got him to the leadership and both major parties are beholden to them regardless of what Rudd says…
Ok, brainstorm guys.
What *can* the Liberals do to reduce the carnage at this election? Presume that you’re a Liberal strategist and your mind is on making the Party competitive in 2010. What do you do?
I just don’t know which they can turn… and I’m loving it.
Wow, it doesn’t take much to scare you!
Those two guys are going to keep the anti-union hacks of the Liberal party in opposition for quite a while. Those two guy should frighten you quite a lot, because they have the capacity to make the Liberal party irrelevent for about a decade.
Which factions would they be?
Glen 182 – I can’t really follow your ‘logic’. Also, pls take earlier hint re use of punctuation.
They can’t reduce carnage at this election. They can’t be competitive in a DD election next year nor 2011 either. By the time 2014 rolls around, whether or not they are competitive will depend on how much new blood they have in the party. They need fresh faces and new ideas. New ideas won’t come from the same old faces. We can see that now played out around us at the moment. And yes, it is fun to see them squirm. The look on Howard’s face last night as the Sydney crowd were booing him was priceless ;-D.
Release some policies.
Announce the precise date that Howard is going to resign (within the first year of the government)
Propose an indepth inquiry into the ways that WorkChoices has failed.
#183 “What *can* the Liberals do to reduce the carnage at this election? Presume that you’re a Liberal strategist and your mind is on making the Party competitive in 2010. What do you do?”
Charlie, I know exactly what they can do, not only to reduce the carnage, but to be returned at the up-coming election with a comfortable margin.
I could tell you, but then I’d have to kill you.
(Seriously, who wants to give them advice?? Not me.)
Re lawyers – IIRC, once you are admitted to the Bar, you are on the Roll of Practitioners until struck off. Thus, once a lawyer, always a lawyer.
I am a lawyer, but I gave it away years ago. I’m now a bureaucrat
Excusings for confusions on matters of stooges being late..Sanjay busy with making childrens for in order to make gresater country greaster but took to relif from labors to say was not adam who is fine fellow referings along to be bunnins –why is hardwearings shop has involvins in sereris mutter of polintikets???? Sanjay has confusings on head.
Sir Saintly St Johnnies by gosh. Must have to be Kight of Templars by gods!!! Sanjay has noting of commenting re-s labirngs people not have childrens in cabinets – childlessness sodoms …Being asured restins Sait Joh — Sanjay workings on jobs and has grateful heedings of your wonderous lights
The big problem at the heart of Glen’s arguments about unions is the unquestioned assumption that unions are bad and the equally unquestioned assumption that a majority of Australians likewise think that unions are bad.
It is the same reasoning (or lack of) that Howard uses.
So, Glen, rather than simply pointing to the obvious facts about Labor having links to unions, you really should be explaining why unions are bad. If you can convince us all of this, then you might start having some success when you go on your anti-union tirades. BY not doing this, your arguments, claims, and smears end up being hollow and pointless, just like Howard’s and Hockey’s.
Charlie, the substantial periods of consevative success seem to have been achieved by hiving off the right of the Labor party..Billy Hughes in 1915, Joe Lyons in 1931, the DLP in 1955(how many elections did Menzies win with
Charlie @183. It may be too late for them to redeem the election at this late stage. (Let’s hope so, anyway). Might be that their only chance at viability and relevance in the longer term is to recognise where they have gone wrong these past years.
IMO, they have been a party of weak yes-men under the spell of the Rodent. The party has allowed Howard to so dominate and stifle dissent that it should more accurately be called the Howard Party. They need to learn not to put all their leadership eggs in one basket.
Howard has wilfully dragged them, in his own image, to the extremes of the Australian political spectrum. From there, there are only two routes to take.
1) Continue on their path to radicalism and irrelevance; or
2) Compete for the centre ground (and relevance/viability) which Labor has naturally filled.
Don’t assume that what is obvious for us, is obvious for Glen. He goes on and on and on about unions that I don’t think he understands the history of trade unions in Australia, and their relationship to the ALP.
“(Seriously, who wants to give them advice?? Not me.)”
I wouldn’t be giving them any advice either. But at the very least, Howard is going to need some policies for after the election. He is in no position to be playing small-target. Howard barely has any policies that point to what he would do in a fifth term, whereas Rudd has accumulated a substantial list of policies now.
Something Glen should consider is that the unions have had a positive role in many functioning democracies for over 150 years. He and other reactionaries might not like them, but they have pushed for many improvements in the workplace, which without would look like Dickensian England.
Perhaps I should point out that when democracy is stifled in a country, the first thing many regimes tend to do is to ban the unions? Now why is that?? I wonder??
“Don’t assume that what is obvious for us, is obvious for Glen.”
Yep. The thing is we all KNOW that Glen is just spouting the latest Liberal party propaganda. This is the reason why he has failed to think through what he is actually saying. It is the same for the “Rudd lacks experience” argument. It is just a repeat, over and over, of the same lines that Howard and his ministers use.
My #192 got truncated.
Basically I’m not a Liberal strategist (thank God!),but I’d:
Use Govt funds to set up a sort of Snowy Mountains Scheme to tackle Climate change (eg Wind farms, desalination plants) but make sure the profits go into private hands.
Stop sending refugees to camps, but use them as cheap labour (thus crippling the unions).
Spend more money on Hospitals and on climate change science, thus appeasing the “doctor’s wife” constituency.
Use refugees as cheap labour? Only a Liberal Government could come up with that!!
“Use refugees as cheap labour? Only a Liberal Government could come up with that!!”
Yes, indeed
The opportunity to “stop the carnage” passed them by a month ago, when they failed to switch to Costello.
Instead they spent a week highlighting their problem and then stuck with the old bloke, damaging Costello badly in the process.
Glen at 182 – you can hardly refer to Combet and Shorten as mere union hacks when a government barracker (Bolt) on Insiders yesterday was saying they were a sign of the impressive talent that the ALP was bringing in to Parliament at this election.
You can work for a union and not be a hack, irrespective of your politics.
Are all union members union hacks Glen? What distinguishes a union member from a union hack? Sounds like a useful term to use but what does it mean?
Wonderful idea. These asylum seekers should be used as cheap labour, for the tobacco factories and asbestos plants. They should, however, continue to be placed under detention while they are not at work.
Meanwhile, all the benefits of incumbency and the intangibles point to an inevitable narrowing of the polls and the Government being returned.
I just can’t see the links between the union movement and the Labor Party being an earth-shatteringly new scare campaign.
An effective scare needs to be fresh, not one that the conservatives have failed to pull-off in 106 years.
Pyne is in denial too.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/01/2047785.htm?section=justin
cheers,
Alan H
I am more pissed off about Chris Judd not playing for Melbourne in 2008 than i am about the current Newspoll.
Glen, how do you know he is not playing for Melboune. Please tell me he is playing for Collingwood. Hell, what else do we oppose each other on? LOL
Oh dear, Glen and I barrack for the same team – I shall have to shoot myself.
Adam – I would too if I barracked for Melbourne. Sorry, couldn’t resist.
Alan H
That’s funny. Ta. He says he is “determined to keep working”. One wonders about his next job. Maybe the entertainment industry might be fruitful.
For god sake call the election Howard
http://melbournefc.com.au/Season2007/News/NewsArticle/tabid/7415/Default.aspx?newsId=51990
Club CEO Steve Harris said: “Chris’ management advised us this morning that Chris had been somewhat surprised by the quality of our club presentation and strategies, and it was a difficult decision. However the club’s training facilities at Junction Oval and the need to train at a variety of grounds over summer was an issue.
“It’s well known that new state of the art facilities are due for completion at Olympic Park within 2 years, but we do have this comparative disadvantage.
I hope he plays for Carlton i could not stand for him to play for ‘the filth’. The only reason he doesnt pick us is because our facilities havent been built yet what a princess. All being well he’ll do a knee in round one and retire. This is almost as bad as losing the election but not that close…
The Dream is Over….but stuff it!
I wish Judd well where ever he ends up – I will miss him. But he sounds like an establishment boy, so melbourne sounds right.
Adam’s support of Melbourne shows that even in a left wing firebrand there is some good in them.
Suddenly my opinion of Glen has improved.
I work for a large union and it seems that our membership numbers are increasing significantly. Our union has several divisions and they cover both the private and public sectors.
The union bashing that is going on today seems rather ironic, given that today is Labour Day in two states and the ACT.
I heard that JWH was up the other night walking Melanie’s baby when it wouldn’t sleep. Is it okay for his extended family to live at the Lodge? Isn’t that just a bit much?
“Left-wing firebrand” ho ho. I am as right-wing as it is possible to be and stay in the Labor Party. Read my comments on Hicks a few days ago. I even supported the Iraq War until you guys stuffed it up so badly.
@ 213 Glen Says:
Good to see the conservative values of decency and fair play are undiminished.
Think of how people in south-west Sydney feel:
http://www.leaguehq.com.au/news/news/granddads-tickled-pink-with-anguss-jersey/2007/09/30/1191090946921.html
‘The radio announcer John Stanley, who addressed the lunch at St George Leagues Club in Kogarah, said it was great to see the PM rushing around “like a 12-year-old getting autographs”.’
Then i stand corrected Adam and i retract my firebrand tag after all i think STROP takes that award lol. I like the mesh of the Melbourne Demons we have working class (Labor supporters) and the upper echelons (Tories) its the perfect world…unlike the ‘filth’…
Now let us divide the Football teams and who their supporters vote for…
Melbourne 70-30 split in favour of the Liberals
Hawthorn 60-40 split in favour of Labor
St. Kilda 70-30 in favour of Labor
Bulldogs 80-20 in favour of Labor
Collingwood 90 in favour of Labor
Richmond 70-30 in favour of Labor
Carlton 60-40 in favour of Labor
Port – 100 Labor
Adelaide 60-40 Labor
WC 70-30 Coalition
Freo 60-40 Labor
Brisbane 60-40 Coalition
Sydney dunno
Geelong 70-30 Labor
N. Melbourne 70-30 Labor
Essendon 70-30 Labor
Damn the AFL has been taken over by Labor but oh well…
That’s funny, a liberal supporer calling collingwood ‘the filth’. It has never been a policy of the CFC to imprison young children to the point of mental collapse in order to discourage other refugees.
Indeed, the vibe is that Judd will come to Collingwood. The greatest player at the gretest club in the land.
With all the love in the air between Adam and Glen, now is the right time to philosophise about how ‘the things we have in common are more important than our differences”.
Also, Glen’s list seems to point to a Labor landslide.
Maybe the polls are right!
Interestingly, this “what-class-is-that-footy-club” game doesn’t work so well here in Sydney, home of the rugby league. League has always been a working man’s sport, and all clubs would have a heavy bias towards Labor (this is perhaps especially true in Newcastle, exemplified by the Johns brothers going and standing on a picket line with their Dad the day after the Knights won their first Grand Final).
The whole class in footy thing is much more straightforward in Sydney (and indeed, in most of NSW and Qld), as the toffs all support rugby union.
I think “Brisbane 60-40 Coalition” is overstating the National Party Vote, maybe its an outlier.
In fact I manage to outrage the real lefties here on issues like Hicks and MGBs far more effectively than Glen does because (a) I know what I am talking about and (b) I don’t bang on about the unions like a broken record. I support unions, particularly sensible ones like the AWU and the SDA. As I’ve said here before, Labor Right views are the only ones that get no respect from the intelligentsia, even though we represent the views of most of the population.
Hugo, I reckon the Swans might have a Libs bias as well.
I have it on good authority judd is going to collingwood. Tarent and fevola to West coast.
I think Hawthorn is much more Liberal than that – they do have that unspeakable loudmouth whose name I cannot bring myself to type as President.
Adams !! Sanjay has many alarums now on head. Must not be havins shooting with glens With no angriness and manifetations of strif – to be using morphics resonences is wel nown to be good and has benifactuals in pratices. Learnings 1 is to be stare at wall an summonings of loner glenish bains cells,, reelly do hard thinkings sayins *porcine bains cells do eveolutions ..-. *
Glen, why are you pretending to be sanjay, etc?
Derek Corbett Said:
“ABC World Today. Chris Ullman (spelling?) says the government has given up believing the polls will turn. All hope now is on campaign, a long one.”
Wonder if the MSM will ever examine the downside of rodent drawing out the election even more than he already has ?
People are already livid about hundreds of millions of dollars of their tax being spent on political advertising – money that should be going into tangible community services – take your choice health, school – whatever.
Billy McMahon got into huge trouble with a late & drawn out election and rodent appears to be heading the same way. Late/ early its hard to see what real difference its going to make. They are gone and they know it.
@ 228 centaur_007 Says:
Did your authority explain why Fevola would be leaving Carlton just to help Collingwood get Judd?
Sanjay is pretending to be Glen. That is why no one can understand any of Glen’s posts.
pleased that Shanahan had a straightforward “Labor retains lead” headline. Of course it is an INCREASE in lead from 10 to 12 but within the margin of error. So if the next newspoll goes back to 55/45 he had better not paint it as a “comeback”. Also, I wonder what the headline would have been if the 2% swing was in the other direction- the government’s way???
No two different authorities. Adam I am hawthorn and don’t mind geff sitting there.
Did anyone else see this article?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22510411-2,00.html
the headline says the election is unlikely to be before November 17 however in the body of the article shannahan says a poll on November 17 is a “near certainty.” ???
Pat (227) – reckon you might be right about the Swans – their home patch is really only the eastern suburbs (over-priced beach suburbs near Bondi, for those camping out).
What’s a Judd, what’s the seat, state and what’s he on? Is he lab or lib. Never heard of this candidate.
The fact is that if all the lefties here were true lefties they would be barracking for collingwood. An A.L.P supporter who dislikes Collingwood is a bundle of volatile contradictions. In Victoria, Collingwood has an historic relationship with the A.L.P far stronger than any other club.
“What’s a Judd, what’s the seat, state and what’s he on? Is he lab or lib. Never heard of this candidate.”
I think he is Ashley’s brother, I will have to check my copy of New Idea
Dunno, Derek (239), but he’s clearly one of those candidates who checks out all the parties, a la Turnbull and Nelson.
Anyone not a bundle of volatile contradictions is probably too dull to bother with.
Thats nice – and the rest of Australia wakes briefly, scratches, rolls over and goes back to sleep – assured the sheer number of opinion polls with the same result actually do mean something.
Good question.
2353, you want < and > for blockquotes, not [ and ]
NO can do. I am a solid Labor voter, Kangaroos supporter and wouldn’t touch Collingwood for anything. Eddie and Jeff both make me sick to my stomach ………….
If North weren’t in the competition, would probably support Richmond.
It’s a little odd that Howard should support the St George Dragons. Most suburbs in the St George area, such as Hurstville, Kogarah, Bexley, Mortdale etc. are as close to ALP heartland suburbs as you can get.
Even though I spent the first 30 years of my life in the St George area, I couldn’t stand the Dragons; they single-handedly invented cheating in Rugby League – forward passes, biting, spitting, the knock-on that isn’t a knock-on, head-high tackles etc. – anything for victory.
I guess I have just explained why Howard is so enamoured with the Dragons.
December election looks on the cards after all Menzies hung on in 1961 with a December 9 poll…this could be a good omen.
Sorry i meant Didack to west coast not tarrant
Interesting to see Turnbull making a comment about the polls this arvo. Maybe the leadership question will re-surface this week after today’s Newspoll. Perhaps the backbenchers have finally woken up to the fact that Howard cannot get them over the line. He stared them down in the party room last time by telling them that anything they say in the meeting would get into the media. Surely, there must be some backbenchers who have the guts to call Howard on. If there was a spill, Turnbull would be a candidate for sure.
AFAIK there’s only been one person who’s been federal ALP leader and president of a VFL club. Who was he & which club? Hint: the club was a real working man’s club until the 1970’s
Changing Leaders now might as well hand Labor the election on a platter, Howard wont go even if he is tapped and i dont think the coup will be bloodless. The backbenchers would still lose their marginal seats and all for nothing…the Liberals will either win or lose with Howard its too late in the game to change leaders now regardless of any honeymoon period also who else but Howard can hold Bennelong???
Glen’s into omens?
Last resort?
Growler @ 234
Yes, that’s my take on it. However, Sanjay seems a mite confused here and there but it is good that this member of our fair and open society is taking part in this forum of ideas.
Sorry Glen, explain how the situation of an election in December is a good omen? The Liberal Party has also clung on until December in other elections and lost. For instance 2 December 1972.
We could also argue on whether its a particularly ‘good’ omen if the Coalition are returned but I suspect that would all come down to opinion.
Fagin, you’re not one of those jilted St. George fans that went over to St George lite (ie Cronulla) are you?
What a piss poor excuse from Judd about facilities he knew Melbourne would have shiat facilities until the Olympic Park development was completed so why the f&*k did he bother us if he was never going to chose us because of facilities its a joke i hope if he goes to the ‘filth’ he breaks down with a hamstring on Queens Birthday!
Who is Sanjay is it Nostro?
Glen I believe there’s a reason for the swearing filters.
I support unions too, but I don’t support people like Don Farrel, and Joe De Bruyn telling members of the Labor Right how to vote during leadership ballots and conscience votes. I don’t support them holding Labor M.P.’s preselections to ransom based on how they choose to vote in those situations. Senator Kirk is gone since she supported Rudd instead of Beazley, even though Rudd won the leadership ballot easily.
#138 Glen Thats a bit of an oxymoron. Conservative and intelligent. The last Bush election showed that using average IQ of each US state, the lower the IQ the more they voted for George Bush, the higher the IQ the more they voted for John Kerry. Hence the two dumbest states Mississippi and Utah which have average IQ’s just bordering on retarded. Voted for George Bush in the greatest numbers.
The Daily Mirror is read in the UK by over 4.5 million people source (92 page PDF)
AVERAGE
POP PRESIDENT
LIST STATE IQ ELECT
1 Connecticut 113 John Kerry
2 Massachusetts 111 John Kerry
3 New Jersey 111 John Kerry
4 New York 109 John Kerry
5 Rhode Island 107 John Kerry
6 Hawaii 106 John Kerry
7 Maryland 105 John Kerry
8 New Hampshire 105 John Kerry
9 Illinois 104 John Kerry
10 Delaware 103 John Kerry
11 Minnesota 102 John Kerry
12 Vermont 102 John Kerry
13 Washington 102 John Kerry
14 California 101 John Kerry
15 Pennsylvania 101 John Kerry
16 Maine 100 John Kerry
17 Virginia 100 George Bush
18 Wisconsin 100 John Kerry
19 Colorado 99 George Bush
20 Iowa 99 George Bush
21 Michigan 99 John Kerry
22 Nevada 99 George Bush
23 Ohio 99 George Bush
24 Oregon 99 John Kerry
25 Alaska 98 George Bush
26 Florida 98 George Bush
27 Missouri 98 George Bush
28 Kansas 96 George Bush
29 Nebraska 95 George Bush
30 Arizona 94 George Bush
31 Indiana 94 George Bush
32 Tennessee 94 George Bush
33 North Carolina 93 George Bush
34 West Virginia 93 George Bush
35 Arkansas 92 George Bush
36 Georgia 92 George Bush
37 Kentucky 92 George Bush
38 New Mexico 92 George Bush
39 North Dakota 92 George Bush
40 Texas 92 George Bush
41 Alabama 90 George Bush
42 Louisiana 90 George Bush
43 Montana 90 George Bush
44 Oklahoma 90 George Bush
45 South Dakota 90 George Bush
46 South Carolina 89 George Bush
47 Wyoming 89 George Bush
48 Idaho 87 George Bush
49 Utah 87 George Bush
50 Mississippi 85 George Bush
Coalition Victories in late Nov early Dec….
1961 (Dec 9), 1958 (Nov 22), 1963 (Nov 30), 1955 (Dec 10), 1949 (Dec 10), 1966 (Nov 26), 1975 (Dec 13), 1977 (Dec 10)….
Just goes to show going Late doesnt mean the Coalition will lose…nevertheless it doesnt prove they’ll win either.
IQ is neither an impartial nor a good indicator of actual ‘intelligence’. I wouldn’t say any particular type of voter is dumber than the other.
Also in America they dont have compulsory voting so just as many stupid people could have voted for Kerry as Bush…
Pat @ 256
Yes I was… until Super League, now I couldn’t care less (Cronulla-Sutherland are blue-blooded Lib types anyway… They can go to hades along with Howard).
The World Game (The Beautiful Game) is the only game that matters now!
Chris B #260. State’s have average IQs? That’s stats gone mad.
If it were relevant that Labor has a large percentage of ex-union leadership as Cabinet / Shadow Cabinet / MPs they would have never been voted in.
LNP basically represent business owners as the main priority. Labor represent Australian workers and individual Australians as the main priority. That many ALP shadow cabinet and MPs are from union leadership is not new news; someone suddenly wake up after 100 years and think it an issue?
If you wanted the Australian demographic represented in Govt then most members of Cabinet should be average Australian workers.
Arent business people or small business owners Australian workers Kina?
Paul B Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Chris B #260. State’s have average IQs? That’s stats gone mad.
On reflection, maybe that’s how someone gets to claim they’re from The Smart State.
There were other reasons why Senator Kirk was dropped, which I won’t go into here. She was offered Boothby and should have taken it. Politics is a game of chance and those who go into it do so in the knowledge that they may be necked at any time, either by their party or the voters. Plenty of people more deserving than Kirk have been dumped, defeated or sacked, and plenty more will be before the year is out.
Chris B
That Bush/Kerry – IQ stuff is wrong. I think it was debunked at snopes.
Does not surprise me The Mirror printed it.
Alex @ 250
Re backbenchers finally waking up that H can’t get them over the line.
That’s a Big Statement and, if true, expect major upheavals in the next few days. Seems they have one arrow left in the quiver: Dump Howard. Install Turnbull. Doubt that will work, either.
Adam says:
“Left-wing firebrand†ho ho. I am as right-wing as it is possible to be and stay in the Labor Party. Read my comments on Hicks a few days ago. I even supported the Iraq War until you guys stuffed it up so badly.”
Well be a little bit careful, just as the liberal party should have kept it’s left to keep a broad base the labor party needs to keep it’s left, granted it less important than the liberal left as the liberal left and labor right are pretty much in the center and the center is where the votes are at.
I read your comments on Hicks, the issue with Hicks is not, is he a moron? It is; he is our moron and should have been brought back to Australia to be dealt with by our legal system not by the clap trap that is/was going on in Guantanamo ( if you don’t support the rule of law you are a long way to the right of me).
And if you supported the Iraq war your out to the right of this ex liberal party voter. Greenspan stated the bleeding obvious, it is about oil, you buy oil, you don’t send a civilization back to the stone age for it.
Debunking the extremely silly state IQ/voting thing
http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/stateiq.asp
Derek all that would do is mean the ALP would have beaten 2 Liberal Prime Minister and one without even an election!
The Bush election in 2004 had the highest number of voters ever. Something like 60%. I suspect the next one will be even bigger. How that came about, the Daily Mail had a headline after the Bush election asking how can 59 million Americans be so dumb? Americans wrote in by the thousands saying where not dumb. So the Daily Mail did some research and came up with the answer above. It also seems to be a correlation between religion and voting as well.
basically after 10 yrs or 3 terms any Australian Government is on notice
and can lose as long as the other side is seen as being up to the job……..
this is what is being seen now for the National Elections……. with a little
bit of desperation thrown in by the Howard Govt thrown in……..55/45
or better in Australian terms is a LANDSLIDE
What is a Judd?
Like lawyers, people don’t stop being Judds they just become
old Juddians
http://www.judd.kent.sch.uk/oj.htm
sorry made an error please ignore 2nd thrown in in my post
So does accepting support from the SDA mean the sitting member has signed on to endorse the faction’s conservative social agenda, even if it is opposed to their own philosophy? Wouldn’t such a policy just send Labor people who are liberal economically and socially into the hands of the left faction? Didn’t Keating change the national Right faction to “Labor Unity” for the purpose of making it broader, so it would also include the centre? (i.e. it became the non-left faction). Is it assumed in the ALP faction system that social progressives belong in the left, even if economically they are in favour of less government intervention?
Anyway, Kirk will probably go back to teaching law at Adelaide uni.
I’ve been messing with the ABC election calculator, if the ALP get 51% 2pp in each of the mainland states, and no swings at all in Tasmania and the teritories, it will still possibly win:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=2.9&vic=2&qld=8.1&wa=6.4&sa=5.4&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Charles, I am not in favour of driving the left out of the Labor Party – although if we did, it wouldn’t matter much since they would still have to vote Labor one way or another. I agree that Labor needs to a broad-based party. I’m content just to keep the Leadership and Treasury portfolio and the numbers in Cabinet and the policy committees and the preselction committees firmly in the hands of the Right. That’s all.
William will not allow debates about Hicks or Iraq here, so let’s not pursue that.
On intelligence: IQ is a load of culturally-biased bunkum, and there is no correlation between “intelligence” (whatever that is) and voting. Most people vote the way they do for very good and sufficient reasons related to their social class, and the remainder out of ideological conviction.
Not if the Republicans endorse Guiliani, the religious right, which was about 10% of the Republican vote last time, will stay home.
I just can’t see religious conservatives voting for a guy that supported gun control, civil unions for gays, has been married three times (including dumping one wife on television), and has a habit of cross dressing.
“Utah has an IQ of 85″ is a hoax:
http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/bl_voter_iq.htm
251
Gippslander Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 3:15 pm
AFAIK there’s only been one person who’s been federal ALP leader and president of a VFL club. Who was he & which club? Hint: the club was a real working man’s club until the 1970’s
I take it you may be referring to Simon Crean and the Shinboners ??
#258
Who else can hold Bennelong? McKew I reckon
{Most people vote the way they do for very good and sufficient reasons related to their social class, and the remainder out of ideological conviction.}
Which brings us to the GG online poll which is trying to determine just that. A good opportunity to express an opinion in that regard.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Interestingly during the two Clinton Presidential elections, out of those who actually voted, the higher the level of education achieved, the more likely the voter supported Bush (I) or Dole. Except if the voter had a post-graduate education, then they were 55/45 more likely to support Clinton.
Arthur Calwell was President of North Melbourne 1928-34.
Willism, any chance of a seat de jour for Page? It’s 5.5% I realise but with a retiring sitting member and now a 3 cornered (of 4 because of the high Greens vote) contest I think that it is an interesting seat (and my seat, yes.)
There’s no correlation between education level and “intelligence” either, except that if you’ve had a good education you are better equipped to pass whatever arbitrary tests are invented to measure “intelligence.” Education levels are mostly a function of class.
One day, Phil.
ShowsOn, the education statistics are distorted. It is business, law, science graduates that keep conservatives in the game here. If it was just arts graduates then it would be overwhelmingly tilted to left politics.
If Possum is right as everyone except me seems to think, your next three seats du jour had better be Warringah, Wannon and Kooyong, all of which are about to go to Labor according to the Possum Hit List.
What the bloody hell is going on? My face is red. What’s the old bugger been up to here? We gave him a computer because he wanted to look up Incan stone carving or something and let him go. Jeez. We did discuss the merits of giving him access to the internet, but I lost on a show of hands. He’s still outside in the shed, cackling on about olive trees or something. He makes a great curry, my dad.
If the A.L.P wins Kooyong I will distribute all my money to the local cat shelter. For the A.L.P to win Kooyong there would need to be a 5 % rise in their primary vote and about a 10% rise in the greens vote. The second is likely to happen more than the first, but as a local I can say the fact that Petro is the member will diminish such swings. Different if Ruddock was the member.
My postcode – 100% motivated by basic ideology according to the Oz poll. Must visit my comrades one day.
The reference to AFL clubs and voting is interesting. I’m not sure how it works north of the border, but the Melbourne clubs in the AFL used to be tied to particular suburban and rural zones, from which they would draw recruits and a fan base. This is before the days of the draft.
Consequently, the teams of the Northern and Western suburbs tend to be a bit more ‘working class’ than the likes of Melbourne and Hawthorn. Collingwood, for instance, drew its players (and supporters) from places like Preston. Carlton has plenty of supporters (and some players) of Italian or Greek origin.
Nath,
I suspect you are secretly a Labor supporter. True conservatives are dog loves. Only wimpy leftie pinko types like cats.
paul k, I am an A.L.P supporter, nothing secret about it, but my offer still stands if the A.L.P wi Kooyong.
Dear John
I met one of your Liberal party members at a wedding in the Gardens of Stone National Park at the weekend.
She works for a Liberal Member and she will vote Liberal no matter who is leader.
She is extremely angry with you John for allowing your ego to get out of control.
She said you should have handed over a year ago.
She blames you for the impending loss and no doubt there are many others like her.
It is not too late to hand over John.
If you really care about long term supporters like her then you will do the decent thing and hand over this week.
Yours sincerely
Richard Jones
PS Thank you to my hosts on Nullo Mountain for a wonderful stay. It was great to see all those kangaroos living unmolested.
Does one get a feeling that the government attitude towards the election is that they don’t take it seriously and think the polls will just get right back to them once the campaign starts. If they think this will happen without any good campaining work, this smacks of complacency.
Adam,
You seem to want to persist with your wilful misunderstanding of Possum’s analysis. What Possum’s analysis says is that there is a higher swing to Labor in the nominal Liberal safe seats.
The question is Why?
No doubt IR, generational change and high interest rates are affecting the vote. However, on the Newspolls to date between 20-25% of people who voted Liberal last time are moving to Labor.
Abbott and Costello are regarded as the right wing death eaters of the current Government. Perhaps, the true “Menzies” type Liberals are revolting against the hard right ideologues.
Issues such Iraq, Aboriginal reconciliation, David Hicks, Constitutional Reform etc are playing out. Add in things like AWB, the Tampa etc. and you can see there is a shopping trolley full of issues for traditional Liberals to be hot and bothered about.
It sure don’t look like an election’s going to be called today. That means 3 Nov is crossed off the list of possible dates, and the election will now take place after the RBA decision on interest rates. The govt had better hope that the Oct 24 ABS figures don’t show a big inflation jump, as has been mooted.
BrissyRod (18) – Will be 24th Nov now for certain (Costello has let the cat out of the bag) – Parliament will not sit again before the election. Therefore JH must call sometime within the next 2 weeks. He will want to have a long campaign to give him time to wear down KR – as he sees it, but he won’t want to go too long as this may put voters off. Therefore he will almost certainly call the election at the end of next week – for a six-week campaign and an election to be held on the 24th Nov.
I think the main reason for the big anti-govt swing in its own safe seats is climate change and/or the drought.
Why GG? There are a lot of moderate liberal people in Liberal seats who are not happy with John Howard or the direction he has taken Australia.
They are concerned about the big issues such as global warming. These people are thinkers and think before they vbote. They know we need a new direction and can only get that by not voting Liberal.
Howard is so very scared, so so very scared. He knows that he world is crumbling and that he will go down as the leader who killed the Libs, no real loss, but hopefully he will join the club of PMs to lose their seat.
We don’t need to hope anymore just make it a reality.
Call the election, be a man rodent.
has anyone got any ideas of what the ramifications would be here if Bush does bomb Iran, those ive spoken to has been split in two camps, either it will frighten the voters back to Howard– fear of terrorists and a nuclear war etc, or the opposite, that the populace will riot if he tries to get us embroiled in another Bush war.
As a small l Liberal who used to support Howard I would say that the reasons many former Liberal voters are willing to change their vote is for the following reasons, in no particular order:
- Work Choices ( It just went too far. The changes he originally proposed prior to the election were OK, but once he got the Senate he changed )
- Iraq or more accurately following America no matter where.
- Climate Change ( I am constantly amazed how far behind the government’s attitude is on this issue compared even to that of big business )
- Rudd ( probably the most conservative Labor leader in a very long time )
Growler, how much do want to wager on Labor winning any one of Warringah, Wannon or Kooyong?
Lord D,
I don’t know who buys the groceries and/or keeps the checking ledger at your house (so the person who is on top of grocery pricing), but at our house, I do. I can assure you that inflation will be *up* there as prices aren’t coming down on anything that I buy for my family
.
Judy, the Aus public at large doesn’t like Bush very much; Howard supporting Bush if he bombed Iran would not go down very well. We just don’t trust anything Bush does anymore.
I don’t think the ’small l’ liberal vote is what’s causing the Coalition’s imminent defeat. Hicks, Iraq, environment, Tampa, chidlren overboard and all of the other ’small l’ issues existed in 2004, yet we saw an overall swing away from Labor. Surely Latham could not have been that repulsive? And some of these issues existed as early as 2001. Where were Australia’s ’small l’ liberals when Howard was coopting Hanson supporters, and going down the path of tin-pot patriotism and bigotry?
I’d say the big difference now is Workchoices. It’s really saying something about how the Coalition has misjudged the electorate completely, to the point that they’re pulling their own propaganda ads. If people have seen WC as the nasty piece of legislative work that it is, this may colour their perceptions of Howards’ other supposed good deeds.
Judy, it won’t make one bit of difference. This election will be decided on the issues that are already on the table (i.e work choices, interest rates, etc.). Nothing Bush can do will change our domestic situation so he can’t make those issues go away for John Howard.
I thought when Latham lost that Costello would be P.M. and that would refresh the government, and allow them to win this year. I thought the loss in 2004 was so bad that Labor was best to focus on 2010 as their next big chance.
I can’t believe how lucky we are that Howard didn’t let that happen. It is as if he wanted people to think the government was old and worn out.
4 or 5 months ago The Oz published a survey showing that people on HIGH incomes were very concerned about WorkChoices because they didn’t think it was fair to people on low incomes. Perhaps this is partly a) worrying that their children may be low or middle income earners, and b) a certain sense of egalitarianism that people near the bottom of the ladder deserve a fair go.
Either way, the fact people on high and very high incomes were some of the most concerned with WorkChoices possibly plays into the fact safe Liberal seats are supposedly suffering swings in double figures. Whereas the marginals are ‘only’ suffering 6 – 8% swings (which since they are marginals is enough for the government to lose nearly all of them!)
I still can’t beleive that Labor would probably win if they get 51% 2pp on all of the mainland states. Even if there is no movement at all in the territories and Tasmania. That alone demonstrates how bad a position the government is in.
Adam, are you being deliberately obstinate? I find it staggering that a smart fellow like yourself cannot understand what Possum’s approach is intended to show.
Possum’s analysis is a more sophisticated version of the ‘uniform swing’. Nothing more, nothing less. If the Newspoll data suggests that Warringah and Kooyong would fall and you find this unimaginable, then your issue is with the Newspoll data. Not Possum.
Ten possible reasons why the swing to Labor may be stronger in safe coalition seats:
1. Members in marginal seats work harder for their constituents, and probably have a higher profile.
2. Some regional coalition seats are hit by drought and water shortages, and voters there are unhappy with all governments.
3. Housing costs may not be as big a concern in some safe city coalition seats, where most people own their own homes.
4. Rudd’s stress on education and training may be appealing to coalition voters, along with his diplomatic and language skills.
5. The “time for a change” argument may be biting in safe seats, whereas those in mortgage belt seats may be scared of change, in case it makes things worse (this worked for Keating against Hewson).
6. Housing costs are out of control in selected regional areas, including mining towns (like WA and central Qld) and sea change areas like mid-north NSW coast, Gold and Sunshine Coast/Hervey Bay.
7. The “bandwagon effect”, where if people think Labor will win easily, they want to be known to have backed the right horse. However, bandwagon effects, as told to pollsters, can dissipate on polling day.
8. More migrants (eg professional Indian, Chinese and their private school/uni-educated children moving into wealthy areas, impressed by Rudd, and not impressed by Howard’s attitude to refugees and multiculturalism.
9. Better Labor candidates than previously in some fairly safe coalition seats, while the Liberals have been very slow to choose candidates for some safe Labor seats.
10. Hospitals and dental health are huge issues, which will have the strongest impact in regional areas, and in those with a high percentage of older voters. Many of these seats are safe for the coalition.
I’m just guessing though…
What if the entire press gallery is wrong, and the polls don’t narrow after the election is called? It could indeed get even worse for the Rodent.
I didn’t say who or what I had an issue with. I asked Growler how much he wanted to wager on Labor winning any one of Warringah, Wannon or Kooyong. I’ll ask you the same question. How does $1000 sound for starters? If neither of you is willing to put your money where your typing finger is, I suggest you cease casting nasturtiums in my direction.
What odds that if the rodent leads the libs to a massive defeat that Costello and others, if they win their seats, will quit?
Adam, I’m glad that you have $1,000 to stake on a squabble on the internet, but I do not.
Also, I wasn’t casting any edible plants in your direction (I had to look up the definition of ‘nasturtium’ and was quite befuddled by the result). I’m just confused as to why you’ve been flogging this horse for the past couple of days. Possum – nor anyone else to my knowledge – isn’t predicting those seats will fall. He’s just showing us that Newspoll suggests that those seats may fall. If you don’t believe Newspoll that’s your prerogative, but please stop being so pugnacious about it.
Charles
“Well be a little bit careful, just as the liberal party should have kept it’s left to keep a broad base the labor party needs to keep it’s left, granted it less important than the liberal left as the liberal left and labor right are pretty much in the center and the center is where the votes are at.”
That’s as clear as mud. But I do agree that Labor is left in the political spectrum. We don’t have a “center” in Australia, to my knowledge.
Message to Glen: Glen. It’s – a contraction of it is – always wise to buy more than one page of a dictionary. The H entries are extremely useful and a valuable tool in the expression of one’s thoughts and fears. Those looking to expand their word knowledge usually do a word a day. You will have to buy more pages. Sorry. One word a month – hubris – is simply, not good enough. 1 out of 10. Your thoughts are welcome.
im amazed! i just got a reply to a email i sent to my local sitting member(alex somalay, lib. fairfax) in which i asked who would he support if there is a leadership spill re. howard/costello?
Answer was he his 100% behind Howard and their will be no spill under any terms before the next election.
Not amazed at the answer just that he replied as i have sent him emails before and never received a reply.
must be a election year i think!
Richard @305. I agree that climate change is another issue in the mix.
Adam, I never bet on anything that talks.
Pugnacious? I’m being very restrained. And I’m being very generous. If you have faith in Newspoll and in Possum’s analysis of it, this should be money for jam.
Anyway, enough of that. I have now posted complete constituency results for the recent elections in Sierra Leone, which I know you’ve all been waiting for.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/s/sierraleone/
Daughter 8,
My apologies if this has been asked before but if Sanjay is Omnipresent then why isn’t he here?
libsrok
I think it probably was someone else, I don’t think Alex (Who) Somlyay has worked out the world wide webby broadbeany thingo inter-web work yet.
ruawake
you may be right the reply was snail mail govt.heading and all.
But a real signature not a stamp though i guess a staffer could have done that.
More Pork. The local Liberal candidate, Charlie McKillop and the outgoing member, Warren Entsch announced yesterday $8.3 millon for two linear accelerators in an extension of Cairns Base Hospital Radiation Oncology.
This is a much needed pork barrelling so I hope the Labor candidate matches it. Mind you the hospital will need double the money just to construct the bunkers.
libsrok
see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autopen
Adam,
Casting nasturtiums is what I do after hubricating myself.
#270 ruawake All you have given me is a statement that says it is false. Nothing in there to debunk what was published on the front page of the Daily Mail. Evidence would be handy.
Evidence to support my statement about Utah. The people from Utah that come door knocking, all over Australia.
I’m a South Australian and I know that this is going back to a previous thread but of you South Aussies out there, how many think that Boothby will fall? Anybody heard anything apart from the anti-Cornes publicity in the press? On the swing that is supposed to occurring in S.A. Nicole Cornes should be a shoe-in but some reports suggest that Mia Handshin in Sturt has a greater chance of winning despite the bigger swing required (and would’nt that be a great result to see Christopher Pain in the a*se fall on his sword)
Re 322,
Libsrock, speaking of leadership spills and who will people vote for, my member here in Werriwa also emailed me when the Beazely/Rudd spill came down late last year. He made it plain that he was voting for Beazely. I think now that he is glad that he wasn’t on the winning side ;-D …..
You should always keep yourself well hubricated, especially in this weather.
I think it’s going to be a big shock for Hugh Zochling when he learns that he is going to win Warringah. He is the only Labor candidate who hasn’t put his photo and biography up on the ALP website. Without disrespect, he is the tokenest of token candidates. I hope he hasn’t made any travel plans for next year.
Chris B
Daily Mail now, I thought you said Daily Mirror
http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/stateiq.asp
“The Chart was completely Bogus”
Chris, if it were possible to vote for the Mormons in the Aussie political system, if hypothetically they had a party here, I would put them way down on the bottom along with Family First and the Libs. The Mormons are the worst lot you can ever imagine, I have read some things about their practices and so on that would raise the hair on your head. Probably right up there with Tom Cruise’s Scientology. Mormons are down right nasty if you are at all centrist or left inclined. In fact, politically, they are probably *right* of the religioius right in the south and south east.
Maybe not one reasons but a number of events that tested the Govts credibility, honesty and purpose in the punters mind. WorkChoices or Hicks created the moment of awakening and, as with all love when it ends, those things you used to love are now things you hate.
The rose coloured glasses are off and Iraq, WC, Bribery, Climate Change denial, Hicks, Tampa, Children Overboard, refugee detention etc now define the govt and, it is defined as cynical, self-serving, under-hand, not trustworthy and not interested in anything apart from its own power – or something like that.
Given that state of affairs is it any wonder that negative campaigning and smears have backfired and instead only confirmed to the punter the dubious nature of this Govt.
Adam at 292
I’ve never seen anyone miss the same point so many times.
If a poll says 56/44 – do you take the result literally, declare it a waste of time and state that it cant possibly be true?
If a 6 poll sequence says 56/44 or 57/43 – do you take the result literally, declare it a waste of time and state that they cant be true?
But should those poll results actually be transfered into a seat by seat basis, using nothing more than the data itself – suddenly, you feel the need to take it literally?
Good grief.
Sounds like a Wrestling Promoters Dream.
The “Mad Monk” versus “The Huge Zochling”.
Two men in a Canberra Cage. Only one will survive. The rules are, there are no rules.
Adam,
I think you are probably right about the 3 seats concerned…… however
I’m willing to have a bet with you which reflects the chance approx
10/1 ie I’ll bet $20 if you win you get $20 if I win I get $200
thanks
Mick
Adam appears to be morphing into Glenn. His continued SOL over Possums analysis is just likes Glenn’s thing about the National’s vote in opinion polls.
No matter how many times it is explained it is never accepted.
Possum and Adam,
May I suggest pistols at 20 paces at dawn.
Just saw the ALP nuclear power station ad on CH7 Sunny Coast. It has a twist.
It had a link to http://howardfacts.com/index.php in the top right for the entire ad.
According to the Mad Monk Abbott: he’s sick of the polls, they’re boring.
If your doom is predicted week after week repeatedly, yeah, I expect you’d get a little bored LOL
It’s a pity there isn’t a decent Independent running in Warringah against Abbott.
Off topic but relevant – some lessons/warning for the growth of an Australia’s ethanol industry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/30/business/30ethanol.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin
Cast your vote
Should Australia be involved with air strikes?
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/
Current results:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/vote.aspx?v=9&q=
#336 ruawake Yes I did say Daily Mirror sorry.
#337 Julie. That’s exactly what I was saying. Not as blunt as you, but I agree with what you say 100%
348,
Chris, I sent you details to read a book about them if you like, check your private email as time permits. It is the book that opened my eyes.
GG #344
“Casting nasturtiums is what I do after hubricating myself.”
Floral sex?
Abbott should just knuckle down to his portfolio, stop being the Minister for Kevin Rudd, and quit his “sleepwalking” comments, and his whingeing.
Abbott:
Sydney Morning Herald, 6 June 2007
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/abbott-why-are-voters-so-unkind/2007/06/05/1180809521656.html
As an exponent of “if you don’t like your job, find another; there are plenty out there”, he should take his own advice!
Rx, I think he’s the secretary Minister for Rudd, under Downer.
My only concern is, what the children will look like.
William
for blockquotes, not [ and ]>
Just practising my protocols.. let’s see if it worked.
Sunray the Underrepresented
A further helpful translation, courtesy of China Manual Manufacturings Ltd:
CMM translation:
A dam Sunray has alumni ahead. Must never shooting glens with anger for many infestations of strife. Using Morpheus’ residence is well informed to be good for beneficiaries with practice. Learning to be a stairwell and Glen’s braincell work hard in porcelain basins doing revolutions.
At this point, the language translator apparently quit. I did my best.
Possum, with the greatest of respect, this all started when you published an analysis of recent Newspolls, which included a list of seats which, according to that analysis, would have been won, at the time those polls were taken, by Labor. You even showed the margins to one decimal place. The list included Warringah, Wannon, Dawson, Kooyong, North Sydney and Goldstein. I said I did not believe that Labor was going to win any of those seats, and further that I did not believe that a two-party majority of voters in any of those seats had ever told Newspoll that they were going to vote Labor. That observation was based on my knowledge of those seats and more than 30 years of watching and participating in elections, and I stand by it. I’m not a statistician and I’m not trying to argue statistics with you. I’m making the point that any opinion poll needs to be interpreted in the light of knowledge acquired by other means. Polling is not an exact science. An opinion poll only has value if it is interpreted in the light of experience. If someone came out with a poll tomorrow showing the Libs on 60%, we’d all say “Oh no that can’t be right,” no matter how impeccable its methodology, because it would make no sense in the light of what we know from other sources. I’m accused of taking things too literally. I’m not sure what that means. You published the list. I said it should not be taken literally but rather interpreted in the light of what we know about those seats. You actually agreed with me, when pressed, that you did not think Labor would win several of those seats. If you think that, what is the value of the list? If the list has no predictive value, what is the point of it?
Pat, on further consideration, they are not just Ministers for Kevin Rudd. The entire current Cabinet is the Cabinet for Kevin Rudd.
If they could talk about their plans for the future, instead of besmirching the Opposition and its leader at every pass, they might be in for less of a hiding.
But I guess it is hard to talk about the country’s future when their only “vision” is getting themselves re-elected so they can tighten the WorkChoices screws into working Australians.
Re Adam – Possum.
The election is not far away, this will answer the debating points. My gut feeling is that this will be a very different election, throw past logic out the window, things will happen in very odd places.
307judy I think the riot option would be on the cards. Would there be any Liberals left?
I enjoyed a lovely lunch today provided by “Choiced” Labour working for 15 dollars an hour at a lovely African/French fusion cafe in Balmain. What’s all the fuss? The workers seemed very happy and content with the master.
But seriously during my hiatus it became very apparent that Forward with Fairness is very much WorkChoices with a few bones thrown to the unions. In substance the unions die under the Libs in 18 months or after Rudd provided Chemo in about 5 years. Big deal. It was of course the deal Rudd had to do to stop a real business campaign against him. And the lukewarm neutral statements from BHP etc were the prize. I am told that Rudd’s hatred of the AWU/SDA in QLD also means he wont shed a tear at their demise.
I have decided against posting on ministry/shadow ministry compositions, because after all many of you will just continue your madrassa like chanting but suffice to say what Labor bragged about in the 80’s and 90’s ie we are professional and the Libs are amateurs is something that it goes to great lengths to hide now. You also miss the point about unions no one dreads a return to the 70s (except perhaps from the CFMEU) but there is an extraordinary amount of people in the ALP whose career path has been university/staffer and or union official/ parliament – its legitimate to say these people will suffer from a higher than usual degree of group think.
I of course do not rule out Howard pulling of the lid off the coffin in 8 weeks or so – but clearly the polls at the moment read a clear cut defeat. Going on Newspoll quarterly averages a 9% 2PP in QLD spells doom but I think a polling swing of 6% 2PP in QLD is still very possible in which case the Libs stay in the game assuming a similar clawback in other States. There is essentially a group of 14 seats of which Howard needs to hold 10 to win. Think Deakin in Victoria, Cowan in WA, Dobell, Wentworth in NSW, Blair in QLD etc.
Two challenges for you putative Labor hacks out there?! What advance have the “unions” delivered since 1987 (introduction of compulsory super) [ and dont say James Hardie asbestos - because that was something the NSW govt stiffarmed for them to cover its own disgraceful shortcomings in this area] and secondly please name a policy difference between the 2 parties and dont just say “WorkChoices” please be specific?
If Iran decided to retaliate the Australians would be caught in the middle. Take note if the Australians are shifted elsewhere that would be a clue as to what is about to happen. Also keep an eye on the Austrians.
Apoligies if this has already been posted by someone else. Andrew who hosts Deal or No Deal has a political blog on Yahoo. This is his link to an article about Howard.
http://election2007.yahoo.com.au/BlogEntry.23.aspx
ESJ, if you want to discuss unions at any depth or length, you will have to ask (what’s left of) your Liberal fellow-travellers. Most other people couldn’t give a stuff about your side’s assembling of a union bogeyman.
After WorkChoices, though, many people are worried about the insidious control of business unions on the Coalition.
Edward St John, I’m not too concerned about what the unions have or have not done.
We know the Howard Government introduced workplace reform that they knew would disadvantage Australian workers. I need to know no more.
Edward StJohn,
Your post really points out why the Libs are so out of touch. For you guys it’s all about Unions, Unions, Unions. No one I know who voted Howard last time but is considering Rudd this time are even thinking about Unions. As I’ve said before the Union issue is only an issue with die hard government supporters, but for swinging voters it’s a dead issue.
Adam, so what would you have Possum do objectively? Remove seats that he does not believe will possibly ever go to Labor?
What grounds can you objectively do this? Unless you can suggest something that is grounded in statistics, perhaps a weighting mechanism based on the percentage of times since creation that the seat has gone to the ALP, then I can’t imagine Possum erred too much in his analysis.
Once the analysis has been done we’re all free to look at it and make revisions based on our beliefs on how things will actually work out.
$15/hour equates to about $30k a year. How do you save for a house and the good things of life on that sort of stipend especially in Sydney.
But don’t worry, Possum has done an analysis on Liberal safe seats. Sad for you, but Warringah your erstwhile seat is on the hit list of posssible Labor gains.
So, while you are supping on the good things of life and indulging your gout inducing diet, the workers are pissing on your swag.
They are smiling because pretty soon tossers like you are about to be hoist on your hubric petard.
Keep smiling and laughing because you and your ilk are on the raod to political oblivion. And, we won’t miss you a bit.
Edward StJohn
Fibre to the node broadband, signing the Kyoto protocol. Want more?
What is the coalitions tax policy?
344 ruawake. WOW, its got everything on it that I have been banging on about over the last six months. Not just on here. Maybe someone has been listening?
What is the Coalition’s IR policy for their next term (should they be given one)?
Adam are you ok?
If anyone who missed the boos for Howard last night at the NRL GF can get a rebroadcast on TV OR a podcast from the ABC website, the 7pm national news tonight played that clip in their story about todays Newspoll results.
CETP, IMHO Possum should not have bothered with the list. It is trying to squeeze more specificity out of opinion polling data than there is to be squeezed. All we can say about those polls is that they showed a big swing to Labor, which was even bigger in the safe Liberal seats than in the marginals. Possum is trying to treat psephology as though it was physics. It isn’t. Polling is not an exact science. Why else do four polling companies ask the same people the same questions on the same day and get four different results? Forming useful opinions about electoral behaviour is not just a matter of statistics. It also involves psychology, sociology, economics, history and lots of politics. Calculating a putative Labor majority for Wannon on the basis of opinion polls is the kind of statistical fetishism that makes psephologists look silly.
All the brouhaha about “union hacks” fails to look at the individual people (as does the “lawyer” stuff in the other direction). A quick bit of googling reveals that Shorten has Arts and Law degrees and Combet tertiary qualifications in Engineering, Economics and Labour Relations.
It is as ridiculous to criticise them for having pursued their career through the union movement as it would be to criticise someone on the other side for having worked for a transnational corporation (or organisation of employers).
I’m sure there’s just as much nasty political manoeuvring in these organisations as in your average trade union, and I’m sure the management is no more accountable to the owners than trade union officials are to their members and quite likely less.
Surely attention should be given rather to the natural and acquired abilities of candidates (from both sides) and the contribution they can make to good public policy.
BrissyRod, I’m super, thanks for asking
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=El-qtrfCJwc&mode=related&search=
349 Julie. Thanks a lot Julie. I am always interested in learning about these sorts of things. I used Wikipedia to learn a lot about Southern Baptists. But I also found there own site quite helpful. There map that shows where the Southern Baptists are located is helpful. In fact should you superimpose that map with a map of the red states it explains a lot. Further if you take the average IQ of the states information I posted here earlier, its amazing how they coincide with the number of Southern Baptists. In spite of that information being dismissed.
I must admit I agree with Adam’s sentiment on this. Statistics and polls are interesting but at the end of the day there has to be some political analysis to interpret them. Having said that, I do think the Liberal is softer than is being talked about here. If Adam does think these seats will definitely not fall (although there have been reports that Liberals are worried about Kooyong and Goldstein) then it would be nice if he deigned to give us a reason.
366 – GG
I’ll let you in on a secret Australia has always had low paid industries pre and post WorkChoices. For example a check-out chick at Woolworths earns $640 per week – $60 above the award. Woolies is perfectly entitled legally not to raise wages until the award catches up. In fact today’s friendly workforce earned more than the award.
367 – RU
Broadband – what’s the difference -seems there are 2 different models on offer. Ford vs Toyota. Unless your a tech head who cares?
Kyoto – I agree. We’ll see after the election who thinks that one is a winner.
365&363 – If you choose to shut your mind to alternate views thats up to you of course. Dare to struggle dare to win comrade. I of course am in my fellow traveller Adam’s camp – aint no way seats like Warringah, Berorwa and Wannon will turn socialist at this election. Dream on.
I did enjoy the unexpected analysis from Andrew wotsisname from Deal or No Deal. It was remarkably well written, and I did like this line: “The brown rat (rattus norvegicus) is as supple as rubber and will dislocate his own hips to slip through a hole to the pantry”.
And a reader comment was interesting…the one that said “I’d forgotten about AWB”.
I do think AWB is worth a mention every so often by Labor…the fact that we paid bribes to the regime that we followed George Bush to war against. It is a truly remarkable thing, kept low-key in the public mind only because it was a complicated issue, and wheat sales aren’t sexy like New York strip clubs.
Yeah Edward,
But now I guess your worried that the glubby bits in the chicken soup weren’t chicken.
Best get back to Warringah. We’re storming now!
378 – So what?
The government pays for “inducements” all the time.
Have you ever looked at the list of countries we sell arms to? Or the itinerary for Asian military officers hosted by the Aust Govt when in Sydney/Melbourne, needless to say we pick up the tab!
ESJ (359) – you are correct to draw attention to the similarities of the IR policies of each side, but you greatly underplay the differences. To mind, their are three significant differences between Labor’s IR policy and WorkChoices, and each of these will be a direct benefit to employees.
Firstly, Labor intends to have a measure of industrial democracy with a compulsory collective bargaining clause, whereby, if a majority of employees want a collective agreement, then the employer has to negotiate in good faith (as is the set up in most of other Western nations). WorkChoices has no mechanism for this.
Secondly, Labor has pledged to re-introduce a form of the unfair dismissal law. Its effective abolition in WCs has greatly contributed to anxieties about job security.
Thirdly, Labor plans to greatly increase the “floor”, with 10 minimum conditions underpinning a revived Award system – WCs only has 4 such conditions.
The main areas where FWF in similar to WCs is in the area of restrictions on union activity, something I’m sure you would be in favour of.
I’ve said it before, but WorkChoices is the fundamental cause of the government’s malaise. Its introduction served as a breach between Howard and his so-called “battlers”, and events since then have all played away from the government. When the tide turns, it can run out fast.
“It also involves psychology, sociology, economics, history and lots of politics.” .. and that inevitably leads to voting intentions and swings which make up polls and statistical analysis further disects without emotion or worries about being right or wrong. People can then apply their personal knowledge as to probability of certain events happening.
“..the kind of statistical fetishism that makes psephologists look silly.”
A little bit of bile seeps through.
Excellent Adam! Great to hear.
By the way thanks to the person for responding to my question. I am convinced we go to the polls 24 Nov.
Fagin @ #264
“Cronulla-Sutherland are blue-blooded Lib types anyway… They can go to hades along with Howard)”
Hey watch what you say about us Sharks supporters.
I’ve been a Labor voter all my life and i grew up there.
In fact given that labor has been perennial losers at a Federal level we Sharks supporters have more in common with labor than the libs.
As Jack Gibson said it:
Waiting for Cronulla to win the premiership is like leaving the verandah light on for Harold Holt.
Still it’s not the winning, it’s the struggle.
337 @ Julie Says:
{The Mormons are the worst lot you can ever imagine, I have read some things about their practices and so on that would raise the hair on your head. }
Julie, I find what you have posted here extremely offensive and I don’t know where you get your information on the Latter Day Saints but it is very wrong.
All the Mormans that I know don’t fit in any shape or form your discription of them.
I am a non alligned Labor voter since 1972, am a Morman and know of many of a similar faith that have similar preferences.
All of them that I know are great family people and good citizens of this country. The church itself does not involve itself in partisan politics of any sort.
There may be some sort of aberations within breakaway sects in other countries, but I am also not aware of them either.
Please check your facts through reputable sources and don’t aleniate an important voting block with unsubstantiated rubbish. The Missionaries may be a bit of a bother to some people but they mean well and are always polite no matter what the situation.
I would rather be associated with them tham the godless, disgusting Liberals or characters like Ackerman et al.
“Further if you take the average IQ of the states information I posted here earlier, its amazing how they coincide with the number of Southern Baptists. In spite of that information being dismissed.”
Yes, it’s amazing how the data of a made up table matches perfectly with the intentions of the person who made it up…
Much as I dread entering the debate between Possum and Adam (both of whose posts I really enjoy), I must say that I can see both sides of the argument.
It is true that if you apply the swing uniformly you will have Labor winning seats like Wannon and Goldstein. However, unless a poll is done in a specific seat, it’s stretching a long bow to make conclusions about any individual seat based on a national poll. Still, it’s an interesting and fun exercise. And there are always seats that do fall unexpectedly to huge swings (Hughes in 1996 being a fine example).
But Adam, I reject this statement/question of yours: “Why else do four polling companies ask the same people the same questions on the same day and get four different results?”
Of course, they ask different people…unless there’s a deceit going on that you know about and I don’t. They even have to apply complex formulas to their results, to make it appear that this week’s lot of different people were the same representative sample that last week’s were.
In this respect, political polling is different to television ratings. They stick a gadget on the TVs of certain families, and record the viewing patterns of the same people each time. My feeling, then, is that TV ratings would give a more accurate picture of changing viewing patterns over time, than political polls. But I’m not a statistician – would any statisticians care to comment?
Hugo 381,
I agree with your list of 3 conditions, however
If a union has a majority of members in a workplace then under WorkChoices more than likely the employer will collectively bargain.
The 10 minimum conditions are all pretty ho-hum, ie allowing a long term casual to convert to permanent. Sounds nice but there window dressing. Bottom line Labor will like WC allow trading off penalties/OT
Unfair dismissal – 2 edged sword there. Some will like it – others wont like small business.
But we can agree there not earth shattering differences?
I agree with you however on the impressions on WorkChoices in voting terms. I like many others underestimated the effectiveness of the propaganda about WC.
Possum has every justification in dissecting and examining polling statistics in order to determine the possible outcome of an event. It’s no different to trying to predict exactly where and when a game of football may be won. You might be wrong but you can do it. Concede Adam.
Michael Brissendon on the 7:30 report replayed the boo sequence in his story too
:):) (I think that the 7:30 report does have a podcast as well)
Communications Minister Coonan is the interview tonight talking about Telstra and their stoush.
Abbott calling Rudd a tourist now, starting to scratch the barrel of the inane.
Haneef on Four Corners tonight?
318
Adam Says:
“I didn’t say who or what I had an issue with. I asked Growler how much he wanted to wager on Labor winning any one of Warringah, Wannon or Kooyong. I’ll ask you the same question. How does $1000 sound for starters?”
I did the whole thing again my way and basically got what possum got. His point is not, this is what the result is going to be, his point is “this is what is hidden behind the polls”. The issue is the swing is coming from liberal voters, the more liberal voters in the electorate the bigger the swing.
Are you going to guarantee the polls stay where they are?
I won’t take Kooyong it is looked after by a moderate so I don’t think he will fall, I’d vote for him, but I have heard he is worried. Warringah, on these polls my calculated guess is to labor by 0.63%, too close but the Abbot, tempting. Wannon, I get 1.6% to labor very tempting. But I see your point, calculatiing a result and risking $1000 on it are two different things.
386,
Scorpio, if you like ask William to give you my personal email. I will give you the same book reference I provided to Chris B. Cheers
:)
William, I’m certainly aware of you wanting to keep postings to the point, and that Iran has been discussed on another thread. However, a number of people have again raised the spectre of the U.S. bombing Iran and it has again been discussed on PM this evening, and views were sought on what, if any, impact this may have on the election. Again, I would put forward the view that given the majority of the Australian people were against the Iraq debacle, given that Iraq has developed into the disaster anyone with a modicum of understanding of the history and politics of the region predicted, then a strike against Iran would have a significantly adverse effect on any Australian government that supported such a move. Not only that, but anyone with the merest grasp of what such a strike would unleash, had better be telling anyone who will listen to do anything they can to avert such a strike. Iran will strike out at their enemies, such as Israel, Israel will retaliate against their enemies and the entire region will descend into a blood bath of unimaginable proportions, possibly of nuclear proportions. Whatever, the impact on the Australian election and I do think it would be negative for the Libs. if they support it, every body had better do whatever they can to make sure it doesn’t or you can kiss your posterior good bye. That includes you, Glen and Edward St. John or you won’t have any workers to exploit and your dollars will be ash.
I think if people are unhappy with Adam’s views about Possum’s analysis, they might like to consider the differences between a number of seats in Victoria. Goldstein, Higgins and Kooyong are all traditional liberal seats, whereas seats like Aston and Casey are less traditional seats. As the margins in the non-traditionals have grown, the traditional seats’ margins have remained relatively static (1996 vs 2004).
An opinion poll cannot explain the difference in these seats. They are all “safe” coalition seats, but their behaviours are different. This is the point Adam was making.
TPS, Adam has already ‘deigned’ to give us his reasons behind his belief that the Liberals will hold a bunch of blue-ribbon Liberal seats (big startling call, Adam, very brave of you) – because he’s been, quote “watching and participating in elections” for more than 30 years and anyway, he just knows.
He only just stopped short of saying that he understands the seats of Warringah, Wannon, Dawson, Kooyong, North Sydney and Goldstein because he owns them.
If anybody out there has been “watching and participating” in elections for 40 years, will they please put Adam back in his box?
Meanwhile, no matter how many times Possum and others have explained that the original analysis merely illustrated an artefact of the Newspoll result and was not, nor was it represented to be, a prediction or claim about which seats would actually change hands, Adam continues to verbal Possum and insinuate that Possum had made reckless predictions or claims.
Yet Adam’s accusation is not supported by anything that Possum has written then or subsequently. Possum has explicitly disclaimed that he was making predictions, yet Adam continues tiresomely to press the point and wilfully to ignore the good-faith explanations that have been provided time and again.
I hereby nominate Adam for the 2007 Euclid Award for most obtuse angle.
Edward,
You got to be joking!
As Howard is finding to his chagrin, advertising/propaganda works best when the intended audience relates to the message being communicated.
The fact is, after millions of dollars of tax payer funded advertising, most people still think of Work Choices as a crock and that they specifically blame Howard and his entourage for its introduction.
Howard lost the trust of working Australians when he introduced Work Choices. They have not forgotten or forgiven and will take the appropriate revenge when Howard fronts for his day of reckoning.
If I were you, I’d get back to Warringah to help Tony repel the invaders.
Adam,
The children seem to be turning against the prophet. First Sanjay and now Mercurius.
In the words of Lenin, “What is to be done?”
LOL
Helen Coonan was a shambles on 7.30 report, Solar Thermal providing base load power.
Oh dear, things are not getting any better for the Libs.
Re Mercurius @ 398
Let’s not get nasty. There’s no reason that relying on political experience to suggest that blue ribbon seats will not fall at this election is out-of-the-world stuff. I always value the input of people that have political experience. Of course I might not always agree, but as Julia Gillard would say “it’s just another voice”.
I’m actually surprised people are entertaining the notion at all. Of course it’s possible that the seats will fall, just so unlikely to make discussing it a bit of a waste of time. I’d imagine we’d react the same way if the Liberal Party started talking about the possibility of ultra-safe Labor seats moving to the Coalition.
As to any suggestion that we should praise Howard for WorkChoices I’m still to hear a good reason why we should forgive Howard for introducing a scheme that he knew would put Australians at risk of greater exploitation. He was warned what would happen and didn’t listen. When Joe Hockey says “It was never the intention that [bad agreements] would become the norm” he is accepting that under their scheme it did become the norm. Yet we should forgive them now? We should trust them to listen when they’re warned in the future? Why?
GG once again you prove to be a complete hypocrite…so its wrong for Howard to use taxpayers money for television ads but its ok for State Labor Governments to do it and for Paul Keating to spend $100 million in his last year in office cmon give us a break…oh and Rudd’s proposal is just a non-core promise…
Getting Warringah GG is like the Libs winning the seat of Batman get real it aint gonna happen mate no matter your hubris or the polls…anybody who thinks Labor will get not only a primary vote more than 10% higher than in 2004 and a 2PP of more 9% has got to be kidding themselves….
“the swing is coming from liberal voters, the more liberal voters in the electorate the bigger the swing.”
Well, yes, this often happens when there’s a swing to Labor…the alternative is for Labor voters to swing more strenuously towards themselves.
Julie. I find that a pretty poor response since you went public with your allegations, I believe you should publically defend them.
I am still highly offended!
By the way Glen, I’m in the seat of Batman. No sign of a swing against Marn Fergs’n yet, but I’ll let you know if I detect one.
Glen, to turn your argument on its head, so it’s wrong for the state governments to use taxpayers money to advertise but not for the Howard Government?
Of course, to an objective viewer both are wrong. I somehow doubt anyone will be making their vote at this election or any based on the use of political advertising paid by taxpayers. However I’d say we should all be unanimous in calling for an end to any blatantly political advertising that serves only political parties.
I assume you’ll be fine with the political advertising when a Labor Government is in power federally? No? Then make a stand on it now.
Also in the words of Lenin “Shoot more professors!”
Glen,
My point about the advertising blitz is that it is a complete and utter waste of money because it has not changed opinion one iota.
The morality of spending shit loads of money on party based advertising is one for everybody to consider.
As for hypocrisy, I think we all have it. What do you do to deal with your hypocrisy in your life Glen?
As for Warringah, well Possum’s never lie.
Re the booing at last night’s Grand Final, it pays to remember that if there is a team that “supports” the Liberals, it would be Manly. Of course, the real poster child for the Liberals in the NRL would be those continual failures from the Shire, the Cronulla Gummy Sharks. So a resounding boo-fest from Manly fans would not have given JWH a good feeling. Still, it would have been a good deal worse had the GF involved South Sytdney and Newcastle. Then it would have been ugly beyond belief.
Antonio im not holding my breath for a swing in Batman in fact you’d have to pay a Liberal to stand as a candidate in that seat…
Not im saying that you cannot just bag Howard for doing this either its within the rules or it isnt you cant just pick on Howard because you arent a Liberal supporter…if by your logic its ok for State labor Governments to do this then i dont see why its not for Howard to.
CTEP its something you have to expect Governments to do its called incumbency and you have to deal with the consequences you may not like it but you’ve got to accept it as a hard reality.
i do not have a problem with most of the work choices advertising as it can be seen to be advertising a service and changes to the law, but where it is wrong is where they do not present information but propoganda – such as the “my brother just got one of those AWA’s” or “higher wages – everyone wants that”. Those parts of the ads are purely party political and go to the policy and ideology. The ads that say “ring in if you have a problem” etc are fine.
The climate change ads fit somewhere in that as well, except why advertise on television to turn your computer off?
Glen,
My point about the advertising blitz is that it is a complete and utter waste of money because it has not changed opinion one iota.
The morality of spending loads of money on party based advertising is one for everybody to consider.
As for hypocrisy, I think we all have it. What do you do to deal with your hypocrisy in your life Glen?
As for Warringah, well Possum’s never lie.
GG there is a difference between advertising changes to laws like the fairness test and advertising in which State Premiers like Steve Bracks and Mike Rann appear centre stage i think there is a difference.
Warringah is a rock CTEP sure there may be a swing against Abbott but you’d have to have rocks in your head to think its on the ALP’s hit list.
Once again we have Labor’s invisible front bench has anybody heard anything from them in the past weeks zip! Not even Roxon who stood next to Rudd hardly said boo and she could be a Minister in a month or two…i dont see the value in hiding the ALP front bench but mind you with airheads like Swan and Garrett and Albanese et al running the show no wonder Labor wants them invisible.
Glen, I can’t say there’s much sign of Marn campaigning in Batman. Yet there’s not much sign of him campaigning elsewhere either. He’s shadow minister for transport, Roads and Tourism, which one would think would be pretty important in this election. I suspect Labor has hidden him under a rock because he loves nukes.
Mercurius, polls are conducted in order to provide an indication as to the possible outcome of an event. Possum has dissected and examined the the polling statistics further to provide more information. Information which may ultimately assist in the prediction of an event. FACT.
Yushchenko and Tymoshenko from the Orange Alliance and pro westerners have won the Ukraine Election. Keeping the pro Russian Yanukovych and communists out. This is very good for democracy.
I think the swing in Victoria is in seats like Deakin, Aston, La Trobe, Casey, McMillian, McEwan and Corrangamitte.
Adam is right in saying Costello is well liked in Higgins, Goldstein and Kooyong could swing towards the ALP, before I go on these two seats are very different.
Goldstein is the more likely to go ALP for there are several booths that vote ALP, mainly around Bentleigh, the ALP have a good candidate.
Kooyong, look if this seat changes it will be the story of the Election for based on 2002 state poll only 6 booths voted ALP, not one on primaries, the problem for the ALP in Kooyong is while in 2002 the state seats of Hawthorn and Kew recorded big swings towards the ALP, the Liberal primary was still around 49% and this doesn’t take into account the ultra safe Liberal booths east of Burke Rd which all record Liberal majorities.
In writing all these in 1996 Keating suffered a 5% yet in several western suburb seats the swing against the ALP was between 10-15%, if the polls are right and we see a 7-10% swing towards the ALP then there will be seats that swing by greater margins.
A few months ago I pulled out the 2002 state result for the Kooyong area and while it can’t be taking as gospel the the Liberal TPP was still over 4,000 votes ahead.
Scorpio,
405
Scorpio Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 8:01 pm
Julie. I find that a pretty poor response since you went public with your allegations, I believe you should publically defend them.
I am still highly offended!
I do not, like some folks on this group, take the discussion off topic. The original comment was made in the atmosphere of comparing how I would vote if the Mormons were a political party in Australia. That makes it loosely on topic for an election based thread. William would prefer to keep this group on topic and I am not going there with you to take it off topic. If you care to read the book that gave me my opinion about Mormons, I repeat ask William to get my email and I will give you the details to be able to source the book yourself. Taking it any further in public makes it off topic for election based conversation. I won’t go there with you. However, I will answer one email from you to give you the book details.
Seats like mine (that have a buffer of 10%) are in play because the sitting member is retiring and there isn’t the personal support to be commanded by the replacement candidate. Despite many people believing that Leichardt is a safe Liberal seat, I am getting the impression from many people that Work Choices is making a huge detrimental impact on Liberal support. There are many people in the tourist and hospitaity industry that have had overtime stripped away by AWA’s. It is a pity that the Labor candidate comes across as a complete dork in TV ads. He looks like a casting extra in Revenge Of The Nerds.
EStJ
2 points:
1) If you think converting from a casual to a permanent position is “mere window dressing” you have obviously not had to pay a mortgage while on a casual wage.
2) Did you pay a public holiday surcharge at lunch today? – for all the propoganda about workchoices leading to reform of service industries it is still impossible to get a meal in Sydney after 11pm and most restaurants are still imposing service surcharges. Workchoices is not helping workers or consumers.
For more information on the Ukrainian election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7020378.stm
312
The Happy Revolutionary Says:
“I don’t think the ’small l’ liberal vote is what’s causing the Coalition’s imminent defeat. ” etc.
I think it is an additive thing.
-Small l liberals are still upset.
-Rudd is right enough for left liberals to feel comfortable, and the labor party is going after their vote.
-Work Choices.
-Nuclear.
Pick the one that rocks your boat.
Oracle
Father was delighted with that translation. He is now on to other things, thank God, and has not noticed the quiet removal of the modem in the shed. Just hope he gets back to olive trees and curries.
Is it at all possible that the large swing in ’safe government seats’ is merely down to the definition of what makes a seat ’safe’? It’s probably a lot of technically safe seats (but not ‘blue-ribbon’ seats) are safe due to the Latham factor (again I just shake my head at the stupidity of the Labor Party for Latham in the first place).
If we look at it in that way I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to imagine these ’safe’ seats will record large swings back to the ALP.
#
404
Antonio Says:
Or for the swing to come from the greens, independents, other and don’t know. But I take you point.
lay off the sharks!!
Not everyone who grew up in the shire is a redneck
Thanks bmwofoz (417), that is the first proper political comment I have seen on this question of safe seats rather than just blank assertions. I think it is right that Possum shows what the polls are saying, it does suggest we are in new waters and that seems reasonable to me although I don’t agree with many of the reasons Possum gives for it happening. I think the interview with Katter and Tony Windsor on Insiders also indicated why traditional coalition rural voters are voting Labor for the first time this election, especially the way rural matters are being now seen through the prism of climate change.
420 Oakeshott
You can convert from casual to permanent employment after 6 months under NSW Law only if you are a permanent casual (which is what Labor is proposiing federally). It sounds nice but in reality many many casuals prefer to stay casual because of the casual loading or do not work regular/permanent hours so do not have the right to convert anyway. Therefore its mostly window dressing and something an employer could avoid anyway.
I paid an extra $1 for corkage which was reasonable for my champagne.
I think the Liberals blunder was that they wanted to do over the unions with WorkChoices but if they wanted to do it properly they should have bent over backwards to make it fair without unions – something they belatedly recognised with the fairness test.
Adam, a pendulum is just that.
We dont move Wentworth further up the pendulum on the basis that we know Peter King artificially reduced the swing appearing to be needed for the ALP to take the seat – for to do so, the pendulum ceases to be a pendulum and becomes a personalised guess.
The Newspoll breakdown is just that – the results of the national pendulum as determined by the Newspoll data, made under the assumption that the ratio between the three seat types measured is consistent across the country.Not an assumption without foundation mind you, according to the history of the newspoll quarterly series.
If you want to argue the variance within the swing in those seat types – knock yourself out.Part of the point of producing the Newspoll list was to encourage that very discussion.
But to treat the list literally, rather than the pendulum it is, is missing the point and projecting onto it qualities it does not have.Why you continue to do it after your gross misunderstanding of the breakdown has been repeatedly pointed out to you is a question only you can answer.
Unless people were telling newspoll lies over a three month period, nay, a 9 month period, there is an 11% swing on in government seats held by more than a 6% margin.For every Wannon, Kooyong and and Warringah that swings less than 11%, some other safe seat in the country would have to have been swinging more than that at the time the polls were taken, unless you are suggesting that literally thousands of people have been telling lies to pollsters since February.
That is how pendulums work.
As for the psephology of it, I am treating Newspoll for exactly what it is, polling.If you wish it were treated as something other than polling, to be treated as something which it clearly is not, well…. good luck with that.
The list that was produced is simply a reflection of what the newspoll data stated, to the best that its seat type and state based resolution permitted using the national pendulum.I produced it to show exactly those results, to show what Newspoll stated.
You treat psephology as something other than science… good for you.
I treat elections as science and statistics using the observable reality as delivered by the data.
Adam (218),
You are more right-wing than I am, no tthta I have ever thought of myself as right-wing – only other ill-informed people have. I knew they would stuff up the Iraq war beforehand. The ALP certainly is a broad church.
It would strike me as odd as to why people in the Bush would vote for a political party that virtually ignored them for the 13 years they were in Government from 1983-1996…climate change is just a complete media beat up it sprung up only last year when the media started reporting it before then nobody gave a toss.
The inexperience of the ALP frontbench has been a constant canard of the Coalition during this phoney war (Don’t Trust Rudd etc”). What a crock. Let’s turn back the clock to 1996 and look at the post-election Coalition frontbench. There were only two members of the Cabinet that had ministerial experience in 1996 – JWH and John Moore, who both had ministerial positions in Fraser governments. That’s it. Admittedly John Fahey had been Premier of NSW for nearly three years.
Of the current ALP frontbench, both Bob McMullan and Simon Crean served as Ministers under Keating (Crean under Hawke as well).
This is a non-issue. Someone in the MSM or ALP should pick it up and put it to bed.
CTEP I don’t tend to see the Latham effect being as much an aberration. I think some of those that swung hard to Latham last time, such as in the mortgage belt may not swing back as much as the average this time. The main thing in this election is less Howard’s battlers coming back to Labor than the Liberals finding their core starts to melt away and I believe this election will redefine what is meant by swinging voters. In my view this largely comes from the profound vacuum in the Liberals’ agenda becoming obvious for the first time.
Glen whatever you think of climate change, rural people are increasingly seeing the drought in terms of it (ceratinly in SA, and by the sounds of the independents and the reaction to recent government hand-outs in the eastern states as well).
Possum would you agree or disagree (if so why?) with my comments at 390 & 415.
Hannibal, Laurie Oakes dealt with the inexperience issue pretty well in the Bulletin.
Another point about Kooyong, in 2004 the ALP primary vote was about 7% lower then in 1983, while the Liberals recorded their lowest primary vote since 1974
There are lots of seats with inflated margins…. Canning, Kalgoorlie,
Bowman, Leichhardt, Flynn,Herbert, Maccarthur, Hinkler, Aston, Dunkley, Gippsland to name just a few maybe others can think of more
If there is a large swing to Labor (say 6%) & these seats revert to a more normal vote then any thing is possible
Re ,
Post 417…. maybe It would be useful to look @ VIC 2002 upper
house votes esp for “safe Liberal” seats
Thanks Shrike #435. Must have missed it.
But Glen, Labor did a hell of a lot for the bush in the 1890s.
Another reason why the Libs are completely out of touch with the electorate.
Dunkley is a good example at every election between 1984 til 2001 the swing was never more than 1.9% yet in 2004 the swing was 4%
Source: Frankston Standard around time of the 2001 Election.
EStJ
An example of the problems of casuals. A medical receptionist is a permanent casual and depends on her wage to pay the mortgage. After a 6 month trial period she wishes to become permanent. Her Dr boss refuses and says he will employ someone else so she must stay as a casual.
At a whim the Dr decides at short notice to have a 6 week break – so the secretary is told to come back in 6 weeks – no holiday or any other compensation for her.
This is a true case and is apparently considered entirely legal underwork workchoices. Perhaps there is something I am missing but do you see this as fair or for the greater good of society?
432 Hannibal,
I very much doubt Simon Crean will make it back into the Ministry if they win. He may however be the Speaker – balances up finding a place for Shorten and being seen to give Crean dignity in his final term.
zedder @419
In the scheme of things, Zed, it does not matter too much if the labor candidate looks like a dork. Most candidates – Liberal and Labor – start off as dorks. They have to learn. It’s a hard call standing for Federal Parliament. Important thing is to see what he stands for – if it’s against WorkChoices, he’s your man.
Julie i’d be interested in that data as well if you wouldnt mind, Coonan was an embarrassment to herself on 7 30 report, but then she, along with Andrews are complete failures at their portfolios, hmm add Hockey to that, Abbott looked beaten and deflated in his broacast– didnt stop the bile coming from him though, has anyone noticed that after one of the coalition comes on air, just how logical and precise Rudd sounds when he follows them?