Newspoll has been sprung on us a day early, showing Labor’s two-party lead widening to 56-44 from 55-45 a fortnight ago. Labor’s primary vote is up from 47 per cent to 48 per cent, and the Coalition’s is down from 41 per cent to 39 per cent. Kevin Rudd has taken a slight hit on his satisfaction rating, down from 65 per cent to 62 per cent.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 56-44
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570 Comments
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AFAIK there’s only been one person who’s been federal ALP leader and president of a VFL club. Who was he & which club? Hint: the club was a real working man’s club until the 1970’s
Changing Leaders now might as well hand Labor the election on a platter, Howard wont go even if he is tapped and i dont think the coup will be bloodless. The backbenchers would still lose their marginal seats and all for nothing…the Liberals will either win or lose with Howard its too late in the game to change leaders now regardless of any honeymoon period also who else but Howard can hold Bennelong???
Glen’s into omens?
Last resort?
Growler @ 234
Yes, that’s my take on it. However, Sanjay seems a mite confused here and there but it is good that this member of our fair and open society is taking part in this forum of ideas.
Sorry Glen, explain how the situation of an election in December is a good omen? The Liberal Party has also clung on until December in other elections and lost. For instance 2 December 1972.
We could also argue on whether its a particularly ‘good’ omen if the Coalition are returned but I suspect that would all come down to opinion.
Fagin, you’re not one of those jilted St. George fans that went over to St George lite (ie Cronulla) are you?
What a piss poor excuse from Judd about facilities he knew Melbourne would have shiat facilities until the Olympic Park development was completed so why the f&*k did he bother us if he was never going to chose us because of facilities its a joke i hope if he goes to the ‘filth’ he breaks down with a hamstring on Queens Birthday!
Who is Sanjay is it Nostro?
Glen I believe there’s a reason for the swearing filters.
I support unions too, but I don’t support people like Don Farrel, and Joe De Bruyn telling members of the Labor Right how to vote during leadership ballots and conscience votes. I don’t support them holding Labor M.P.’s preselections to ransom based on how they choose to vote in those situations. Senator Kirk is gone since she supported Rudd instead of Beazley, even though Rudd won the leadership ballot easily.
#138 Glen Thats a bit of an oxymoron. Conservative and intelligent. The last Bush election showed that using average IQ of each US state, the lower the IQ the more they voted for George Bush, the higher the IQ the more they voted for John Kerry. Hence the two dumbest states Mississippi and Utah which have average IQ’s just bordering on retarded. Voted for George Bush in the greatest numbers.
The Daily Mirror is read in the UK by over 4.5 million people source (92 page PDF)
AVERAGE
POP PRESIDENT
LIST STATE IQ ELECT
1 Connecticut 113 John Kerry
2 Massachusetts 111 John Kerry
3 New Jersey 111 John Kerry
4 New York 109 John Kerry
5 Rhode Island 107 John Kerry
6 Hawaii 106 John Kerry
7 Maryland 105 John Kerry
8 New Hampshire 105 John Kerry
9 Illinois 104 John Kerry
10 Delaware 103 John Kerry
11 Minnesota 102 John Kerry
12 Vermont 102 John Kerry
13 Washington 102 John Kerry
14 California 101 John Kerry
15 Pennsylvania 101 John Kerry
16 Maine 100 John Kerry
17 Virginia 100 George Bush
18 Wisconsin 100 John Kerry
19 Colorado 99 George Bush
20 Iowa 99 George Bush
21 Michigan 99 John Kerry
22 Nevada 99 George Bush
23 Ohio 99 George Bush
24 Oregon 99 John Kerry
25 Alaska 98 George Bush
26 Florida 98 George Bush
27 Missouri 98 George Bush
28 Kansas 96 George Bush
29 Nebraska 95 George Bush
30 Arizona 94 George Bush
31 Indiana 94 George Bush
32 Tennessee 94 George Bush
33 North Carolina 93 George Bush
34 West Virginia 93 George Bush
35 Arkansas 92 George Bush
36 Georgia 92 George Bush
37 Kentucky 92 George Bush
38 New Mexico 92 George Bush
39 North Dakota 92 George Bush
40 Texas 92 George Bush
41 Alabama 90 George Bush
42 Louisiana 90 George Bush
43 Montana 90 George Bush
44 Oklahoma 90 George Bush
45 South Dakota 90 George Bush
46 South Carolina 89 George Bush
47 Wyoming 89 George Bush
48 Idaho 87 George Bush
49 Utah 87 George Bush
50 Mississippi 85 George Bush
Coalition Victories in late Nov early Dec….
1961 (Dec 9), 1958 (Nov 22), 1963 (Nov 30), 1955 (Dec 10), 1949 (Dec 10), 1966 (Nov 26), 1975 (Dec 13), 1977 (Dec 10)….
Just goes to show going Late doesnt mean the Coalition will lose…nevertheless it doesnt prove they’ll win either.
IQ is neither an impartial nor a good indicator of actual ‘intelligence’. I wouldn’t say any particular type of voter is dumber than the other.
Also in America they dont have compulsory voting so just as many stupid people could have voted for Kerry as Bush…
Pat @ 256
Yes I was… until Super League, now I couldn’t care less (Cronulla-Sutherland are blue-blooded Lib types anyway… They can go to hades along with Howard).
The World Game (The Beautiful Game) is the only game that matters now!
Chris B #260. State’s have average IQs? That’s stats gone mad.
If it were relevant that Labor has a large percentage of ex-union leadership as Cabinet / Shadow Cabinet / MPs they would have never been voted in.
LNP basically represent business owners as the main priority. Labor represent Australian workers and individual Australians as the main priority. That many ALP shadow cabinet and MPs are from union leadership is not new news; someone suddenly wake up after 100 years and think it an issue?
If you wanted the Australian demographic represented in Govt then most members of Cabinet should be average Australian workers.
Arent business people or small business owners Australian workers Kina?
Paul B Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Chris B #260. State’s have average IQs? That’s stats gone mad.
On reflection, maybe that’s how someone gets to claim they’re from The Smart State.
There were other reasons why Senator Kirk was dropped, which I won’t go into here. She was offered Boothby and should have taken it. Politics is a game of chance and those who go into it do so in the knowledge that they may be necked at any time, either by their party or the voters. Plenty of people more deserving than Kirk have been dumped, defeated or sacked, and plenty more will be before the year is out.
Chris B
That Bush/Kerry – IQ stuff is wrong. I think it was debunked at snopes.
Does not surprise me The Mirror printed it.
Alex @ 250
Re backbenchers finally waking up that H can’t get them over the line.
That’s a Big Statement and, if true, expect major upheavals in the next few days. Seems they have one arrow left in the quiver: Dump Howard. Install Turnbull. Doubt that will work, either.
Adam says:
“Left-wing firebrand†ho ho. I am as right-wing as it is possible to be and stay in the Labor Party. Read my comments on Hicks a few days ago. I even supported the Iraq War until you guys stuffed it up so badly.”
Well be a little bit careful, just as the liberal party should have kept it’s left to keep a broad base the labor party needs to keep it’s left, granted it less important than the liberal left as the liberal left and labor right are pretty much in the center and the center is where the votes are at.
I read your comments on Hicks, the issue with Hicks is not, is he a moron? It is; he is our moron and should have been brought back to Australia to be dealt with by our legal system not by the clap trap that is/was going on in Guantanamo ( if you don’t support the rule of law you are a long way to the right of me).
And if you supported the Iraq war your out to the right of this ex liberal party voter. Greenspan stated the bleeding obvious, it is about oil, you buy oil, you don’t send a civilization back to the stone age for it.
Debunking the extremely silly state IQ/voting thing
http://www.snopes.com/politics/ballot/stateiq.asp
Derek all that would do is mean the ALP would have beaten 2 Liberal Prime Minister and one without even an election!
The Bush election in 2004 had the highest number of voters ever. Something like 60%. I suspect the next one will be even bigger. How that came about, the Daily Mail had a headline after the Bush election asking how can 59 million Americans be so dumb? Americans wrote in by the thousands saying where not dumb. So the Daily Mail did some research and came up with the answer above. It also seems to be a correlation between religion and voting as well.
basically after 10 yrs or 3 terms any Australian Government is on notice
and can lose as long as the other side is seen as being up to the job……..
this is what is being seen now for the National Elections……. with a little
bit of desperation thrown in by the Howard Govt thrown in……..55/45
or better in Australian terms is a LANDSLIDE
What is a Judd?
Like lawyers, people don’t stop being Judds they just become
old Juddians
http://www.judd.kent.sch.uk/oj.htm
sorry made an error please ignore 2nd thrown in in my post
So does accepting support from the SDA mean the sitting member has signed on to endorse the faction’s conservative social agenda, even if it is opposed to their own philosophy? Wouldn’t such a policy just send Labor people who are liberal economically and socially into the hands of the left faction? Didn’t Keating change the national Right faction to “Labor Unity” for the purpose of making it broader, so it would also include the centre? (i.e. it became the non-left faction). Is it assumed in the ALP faction system that social progressives belong in the left, even if economically they are in favour of less government intervention?
Anyway, Kirk will probably go back to teaching law at Adelaide uni.
I’ve been messing with the ABC election calculator, if the ALP get 51% 2pp in each of the mainland states, and no swings at all in Tasmania and the teritories, it will still possibly win:
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=state&national=0&nsw=2.9&vic=2&qld=8.1&wa=6.4&sa=5.4&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Charles, I am not in favour of driving the left out of the Labor Party – although if we did, it wouldn’t matter much since they would still have to vote Labor one way or another. I agree that Labor needs to a broad-based party. I’m content just to keep the Leadership and Treasury portfolio and the numbers in Cabinet and the policy committees and the preselction committees firmly in the hands of the Right. That’s all.
William will not allow debates about Hicks or Iraq here, so let’s not pursue that.
On intelligence: IQ is a load of culturally-biased bunkum, and there is no correlation between “intelligence” (whatever that is) and voting. Most people vote the way they do for very good and sufficient reasons related to their social class, and the remainder out of ideological conviction.
Not if the Republicans endorse Guiliani, the religious right, which was about 10% of the Republican vote last time, will stay home.
I just can’t see religious conservatives voting for a guy that supported gun control, civil unions for gays, has been married three times (including dumping one wife on television), and has a habit of cross dressing.
“Utah has an IQ of 85″ is a hoax:
http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/bl_voter_iq.htm
251
Gippslander Says:
October 1st, 2007 at 3:15 pm
AFAIK there’s only been one person who’s been federal ALP leader and president of a VFL club. Who was he & which club? Hint: the club was a real working man’s club until the 1970’s
I take it you may be referring to Simon Crean and the Shinboners ??
#258
Who else can hold Bennelong? McKew I reckon
{Most people vote the way they do for very good and sufficient reasons related to their social class, and the remainder out of ideological conviction.}
Which brings us to the GG online poll which is trying to determine just that. A good opportunity to express an opinion in that regard.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22073824-5013404,00.html
Interestingly during the two Clinton Presidential elections, out of those who actually voted, the higher the level of education achieved, the more likely the voter supported Bush (I) or Dole. Except if the voter had a post-graduate education, then they were 55/45 more likely to support Clinton.
Arthur Calwell was President of North Melbourne 1928-34.
Willism, any chance of a seat de jour for Page? It’s 5.5% I realise but with a retiring sitting member and now a 3 cornered (of 4 because of the high Greens vote) contest I think that it is an interesting seat (and my seat, yes.)
There’s no correlation between education level and “intelligence” either, except that if you’ve had a good education you are better equipped to pass whatever arbitrary tests are invented to measure “intelligence.” Education levels are mostly a function of class.
One day, Phil.
ShowsOn, the education statistics are distorted. It is business, law, science graduates that keep conservatives in the game here. If it was just arts graduates then it would be overwhelmingly tilted to left politics.
If Possum is right as everyone except me seems to think, your next three seats du jour had better be Warringah, Wannon and Kooyong, all of which are about to go to Labor according to the Possum Hit List.
What the bloody hell is going on? My face is red. What’s the old bugger been up to here? We gave him a computer because he wanted to look up Incan stone carving or something and let him go. Jeez. We did discuss the merits of giving him access to the internet, but I lost on a show of hands. He’s still outside in the shed, cackling on about olive trees or something. He makes a great curry, my dad.
If the A.L.P wins Kooyong I will distribute all my money to the local cat shelter. For the A.L.P to win Kooyong there would need to be a 5 % rise in their primary vote and about a 10% rise in the greens vote. The second is likely to happen more than the first, but as a local I can say the fact that Petro is the member will diminish such swings. Different if Ruddock was the member.
My postcode – 100% motivated by basic ideology according to the Oz poll. Must visit my comrades one day.
The reference to AFL clubs and voting is interesting. I’m not sure how it works north of the border, but the Melbourne clubs in the AFL used to be tied to particular suburban and rural zones, from which they would draw recruits and a fan base. This is before the days of the draft.
Consequently, the teams of the Northern and Western suburbs tend to be a bit more ‘working class’ than the likes of Melbourne and Hawthorn. Collingwood, for instance, drew its players (and supporters) from places like Preston. Carlton has plenty of supporters (and some players) of Italian or Greek origin.
Nath,
I suspect you are secretly a Labor supporter. True conservatives are dog loves. Only wimpy leftie pinko types like cats.
paul k, I am an A.L.P supporter, nothing secret about it, but my offer still stands if the A.L.P wi Kooyong.
Dear John
I met one of your Liberal party members at a wedding in the Gardens of Stone National Park at the weekend.
She works for a Liberal Member and she will vote Liberal no matter who is leader.
She is extremely angry with you John for allowing your ego to get out of control.
She said you should have handed over a year ago.
She blames you for the impending loss and no doubt there are many others like her.
It is not too late to hand over John.
If you really care about long term supporters like her then you will do the decent thing and hand over this week.
Yours sincerely
Richard Jones
PS Thank you to my hosts on Nullo Mountain for a wonderful stay. It was great to see all those kangaroos living unmolested.
Does one get a feeling that the government attitude towards the election is that they don’t take it seriously and think the polls will just get right back to them once the campaign starts. If they think this will happen without any good campaining work, this smacks of complacency.
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