{According to Lieut. Mike Kafka, a spokesman at the headquarters of the Second Fleet, based in Norfolk, Virginia, the Eisenhower Strike Group, bristling with Tomahawk cruise missiles, has received orders to depart the United States in a little over a week. Other official sources in the public affairs office of the Navy Department at the Pentagon confirm that this powerful armada is scheduled to arrive off the coast of Iran on or around October 21. }

{Colonel Gardiner, who has taught military strategy at the National War College, says that the carrier deployment and a scheduled Persian Gulf arrival date of October 21 is “very important evidence” of war planning. He says, “I know that some naval forces have already received ‘prepare to deploy orders’ [PTDOs], which have set the date for being ready to go as October 1. Given that it would take about from October 2 to October 21 to get those forces to the Gulf region, that looks about like the date” of any possible military action against Iran. }
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20061009/lindorff

But on the back of five interest rates rises in a row, Labor is narrowing the gap on who would be the best manager of interest rates.

Mr Howard was nominated by 36 percent of voters (up two points from August), compared to 31 percent for Mr Rudd (up four points).

Obviously I haven’t being paying attention here, but I would have thought given the scare campaigns and negativity in the media, Rudd would have been miles in front on this one (or at least ‘in front’.) I wonder if the stories that the ‘libs will be punished for interest rate rises’ actually hold much sway after all.

Makes you wonder what would happen if the economy suddenly becomes the issue of the campaign.

But I really think acts of war are not likely to win public support unless they can be justified in terms of national interest as well as on irrefutable legal and moral grounds. Given the chaos in Iraq, the public would probably be very troubled by any extension of the conflict. A lot of people think Bush is stupid, reckless, cynical and deceitful. These are not values that Howard would want to be identifying himself with – hardly the “safe hands” he would like to be known as.

On balance, an attack on Iran would pose a huge problem for Howard. He could scarcely walk away from Bush and yet he could not easily support him either.

Weekend soundings are more about anxiety over potential clash of interests. Everyone wants to know the election date. We need to organise our lives, given various work/family commitments. Has huge influence.

Nothing said about media influence.

Yes, and by the way, all think it pretty tough for the PM that he is so worried about challenge of job change. Face up, PM. We do it.

There is a theory that Howard will run a longer campaign in order to give time for Rudd to slip up.

Um, do the Libs have enough money for a long campaign? If they have a long campaign they probably won’t be able to afford adds for a significant portion. Didn’t the NSW Libs leave adverts for the last week and a half in the state election, because that is all they could afford?

However it seems to me that it is the Howard team that is stressed, feeling the pressure and more likely to lose perspective in the heat of the election. They also have a great many more ‘issues’ in their past.

Rudd has run his own strategy this year which involved a lot of ignoring Howard wedges and gazupming him on major issues. I am pretty sure he will run his own campaign with a minimum of dialogue and dispute with the Howard team.

The real problem for Rudd is the murdoch press who have shown their colors. Rudd made a trivial error on tax scales, Costello made a major fundamental error on the calculation of tax using the scales and, also the size of tax cuts, Howard made a May stuff up on tax scales and Downer made a fool of himself trying to ‘cheat’ on Lateline in reciting the tax scales – However which one got reported? Which one got beat up into a critical error over a few days? The most trivial of the lot.

This will be Rudd’s problem. Howard and his team can make as many dumb errors as they like during the campaign and the murdoch press will barely mention them. Every minor slip, even indirect slips will be beat up into major flaws.

Looks like the Libs are starting to eat their own now.

{Mr Abbott blamed the new NSW Liberal MP Pru Goward for feeding these perceptions by criticising Parliament. “If a former press gallery reporter, senior public servant and prime ministerial biographer is so dismayed by the parliamentary culture, where does that leave the general public?”}

Will not Bush have to wait on our election result before he goes in with unknown unwilling?