The Australian today brings us a second round of figures from the weekend Newspoll survey. It shows that in spite of everything, the Prime Minister is rated the leader “more capable of handling Australia’s economy” by 48 per cent to Kevin Rudd’s 33 per cent, while Peter Costello leads Wayne Swan as “most capable of managing Australia’s economy as federal treasurer” by 53 per cent to 21 per cent. The Prime Minister is also rated the leader “most capable of keeping interest rates lower”, although his lead over Rudd has narrowed since last month.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll part two
Copyright © 2008 Private Media Pty Ltd, Publishers of Crikey.com.au. All Rights Reserved.
Independent news, blogs and commentary on politics, media and business.
Editor: Jonathan Green.
Publishers: Eric Beecher, Diana Gribble.
Level 7, 22 William St, Melbourne, 3000. Ph: 1800 985 502 Fax: (03) 8623 9975
693 Comments
Pages: « 1 … 8 9 [10] 11 12 … 14 » Show All
After the 2004 poll I hated the fact that the coalition gained control of both houses.
In retrospect it allowed the full flowering of Howard’s ideological bent towards , for example, ‘the right of the individual to determine his/her own future’ – surely a core value of the coalition! The result was the unmandated ‘workchoice’ legislation.
I don’t believe that Howard is an unintelligent person, far from it. However I consider that at the very least(and perhaps that’s being too kind) he allowed himself to believe that his supporters would ‘play fair and not take the opportunity that ‘Workchoices’ provided to use their superior power to screw their existing or prospective employees, particularly those with low skills.
If his thoughts were truly pure on this, then he has been let down by a significant proportion of his support base, to the universal approbation, not only of those directly affected, but also of those with enough knowledge of human nature and the things which drive it, to know that many business operators both large and small, would base their decisions solely on improving the bottom line (to their own personal benefit), while justifying their actions by the belief that ‘it’s better for the lowly skilled to have a low-paid (poverty level) job ,than none at all’.
The sooner we are shot of that sort of HR Nicholls thinking the better, as far as I am concerned
It is when they start simplifying the legal system and the Tax laws that all the pseuodo professionals will start to worry. Local Butchers and friuterers have been de-regulatedd out of existence.
Who’s next
From http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/awa-study-wrong-pm/2007/10/02/1191091068055.html
Lead researcher Dr Brigid van Wanrooy was angered by Mr Hockey’s description of the study’s authors as “union-friendly academics who have previously done a lot of work for the ACTU”.
Dr van Wanrooy said she had only once before been involved in research with any union association, in 2001.
“Prior to that, I spent two years working at the Department of Workplace Relations under Minister [Peter] Reith and Minister [Tony] Abbott.”
oopsy
I think Hugo’s comment #440 is perfectly reasonable. For the Liberal Party’s core supporters in the small business class, cheaper menials is exactly what this is all about. The fundamental gut motivation for WorkChoices is the reassertion of class power, of the untrammelled right of the employer to do as he pleases with and to his servants.
Scotty
Work Choices acts as economic conscription, similar to what happens in the USA, where studies have highlighted that the most likely recruits to the danger zones such as Iraq come from poor backgrounds. These people join up for the health care benefits, the pay, the opportunity to save for a house and the chance of having their college tuition paid.
We are seeing a similar situation in Australia, with $100,000 uni degrees, unaffordable housing and the low wages from Work Choices.
It does make the armed services look an attractive option.
So far:
- Another bad opinion poll
- Threats of libel suites from academics
- CSIRO research confirming long term climate change
- Knee jerk response to Labor health policy (Along the theme of anything you can do I can do better)
It shaping up to be a bad week for the Libs.
451 Been There – About right – fair and accurate call I think.
450 Adam – That’s all a bit perjorative. for example calling him a former army officer is a bit obtuse – he served in the great war ( like any man of good breeding would have) but was a barrister by calling or trade.
I recommend Bruce of Melbourne, Man of Two Worlds by Cecil Edwards his former Press Secretary.
Interestingly Bruce had no children of his own and ended up as Chancellor the ANU in the 50’s after serving as our de facto war cabinet member in London during the war.
Judith Brett predicted this a few years back. She claims Howard’s true political weakness is his truly visceral loathing of organised labour.
And she was right. First chance he got, he shot himself in the foot with a complex, unwieldy hyper-regulation of the labour market designed simply to screw unions.
Employees hate it. Many employers find it an extremely complex, burdensome and difficult regime, which only benefits lawyers. Its “economic reform” credentials are laughable.
It was the supreme piece of politcal idiocy. Its has no mates. Even business is divided. But silly little John Howard got to really screw unions for 18 months. His achilles heel will bring him down.
Make no mistake, Libs: you are a royal thumping on election day. And I mean six types of piss, not five. Much, much worse than you are expecting.
Its gonna be a bath! Crank up the shredders, boys. You’re rooted.
As his biography shows John Howard and his crew knew WorkChoices was unfair and, they intended to take it even further at some later time.
The prime purpose of WorkChoices according to one commentator was to reduce unions to near on zero membership so they could neither supply funding to Labor party campaigns or talent. The policy did not have the interests of workers at heart.
Howard is not so naive after so many years in politics to not understand that if you give business a mechanism to reduce costs then they will immediately use it to the maximum effect possible. You couldn’t blame business for doing this since they are in competition and responsible to shareholders.
Howard couldn’t resist the opportunity to try and smash the Labor party’s base and thus in time make them uncompetitive.
458 Lefty E -
In fact the lawyers hate it – killed their work stone cold. Not much left to argue about.
I think history will show that WorkChoices was the Libs big mistake. They underestimated the response from the unions. MacKerras on radio recently said as much. Even Hockey has acknowledged that it has been the most efffective campaign in Australian politics. The Libs thought they could get away with it and would have if the unions hadn’t made the decision to mobilise the public through their TV advertising.
ESJ, I have of course read Cecil Edwards’ highly eulogistic biography – about what you’d expect from a former editor of the Melbourne Herald.
I certainly didn’t say that he was a former army officer in a pejorative tone. He was a very distinguished one. But it did contribute to his patrician and rather authoritarian outlook. He did after all say: “Give me half a dozen businessmen to run Australia and you can close up all your parliaments.”
Kina- learn anything read johns’ biography
Thanks ESJ, didnt know that. Even burnt off the lawyers (actually, that makes sense now I rthink about it…. mcuh of the precedent irrelevant, no experts, no collective claims, few individuals with capacity to bring cases)
There you go… Looks like its just two mining companies in North-West WA v the general populace come election day.
Yes and the ultimate irony of WorkChoices (assuming Howard loses),
his policy will be ultimately implemented by Labor. Not unlike the Liberals with Medicare.
The unions are sooo dumb. Rudd will do them professionally if he gets in. Its all in “forward with fairness” for anyone who can read.
Rudd will take IR to the right, ESJ, no question. But it aint Workchoices.
One key difference to note is that a majority of workers in a workplace can elect to collectively bargain under Rudd’s policy.
Workchoices doesnt allow that. Must be 100%, or the employers can do what they like. Not one of the “choices” available to employees.
This change alone will move Australian IR law in line with basic human rights standards – of they type we spend our tax dollars trying to implement in third world countries.
Tend to agree Edward, however Rudd won’t be governed by the unions he will governed by the News Limited and what the shock jocks and Institute of Public Affairs preach… unions will be in the background…
ESJ, the unions have led a pretty sound campaign so far, and will have both Combet and Shorten in the next Cabinet. I’d rather be in their shoes than Howard’s at themoment.
Winston (461)
I agree with you, but I think WC was unpopular with the electorate before then, although the unions helped things along with their advertising. It also painted the unions in the right way, and I think was *their* opportunity to gain some ground.
I doubt Howard could have foreseen that his policy, designed to weaken union power, may have actually strengthened it. To top it off, he’ll lose government, his seat, and his legacy in the process.
What a collosal blunder. For a man who trashed the Republic, refugees rights, the global warming debate and our tax system, this is the payback he deserves.
ESJ – the unions are sooo dumb????
What would you suggest they do? Accept reduced wages and conditions so business leaders can pay themselves bigger bonuses?
Joe Hockey: very embarrassing performance tonight with Uncle Kerry.
I hope those Sydney Uni academics sue Shrek for slander and defamation of character.
I guess Hockey is also attacking his own government’s research council, which contributed 50% of the financing for the research project.
The only thing EST that the Unions will look forward to is the abolishment of the ABCC they have kept the more militant Unions in check and they’ll be a goner if Labor get in unfortunately…
The irony is that the ALP have had to move so far the right to become competitive and indeed overtake the Howard Government in polling…quite amusing if we are to believe Rudd he’ll do everything like Howard except have an education revolution, rip up AWAs and get the troops out of Iraq…interestingly this tactic is being used the National Party of New Zealand’s Opposition leader John Key who has said he would follow Helen Clarke’s foreign and defence policy to a tee…seems this is the smart way of defeating incumbent governments agree with everything that’s popular and trash everything that isnt…all it does is leave the incumbent government between a rock and a hard place.
Exactly Winston.. But what is Labor going to do about those bonuses, no doubt they will continue
The money is still pouring in to the bookies with the majority backing Labor.
{Nearly 60 per cent of money bet on the federal election last week was in favour of Labor, Sportingbet Australia says.
Sportingbet’s “Betwatch” gauges the money placed by punters on the two major parties, with Labor receiving 58 per cent support, compared to the coalition’s 42 per cent, almost mirroring Monday’s Newspoll.
On a two-party preferred basis, the Newspoll showed Labor at 56 per cent compared to 44 per cent support for the government.
“Our analysis of the weight of money bet supports this stabilisation of support for a Rudd-Labor victory,” Sportingbet Australia CEO, Michael Sullivan said.}
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=301991
Why are the unions dumb?
1) Rudd did a deal with big business in the weeks/month or 2 before APEC.
The quid pro quo for avoiding a real campaign against the ALP was keeping most of WorkChoices. Hence note the neutral comments after the policy came out from BHP etc.
2) Shorten and the Combet in Cabinet. So what? They will be there for themselves not the unions. I seriously doubt they will be raising penalty rates in the …. industry in cabinet.
3) WC does not mandate collective bargaining but what is implicit under WC (that an employer will have to talk to a union with a majority of employees) is explicit under Labor. Big deal
4) The unions have nowhere to go from Labor – The unions need to build an indepedent identity which they cant tied to Labor. For example public sector unions didnt affiliate with the ALP historically because they recognised they needed to at least keep some distance to effectively negotiate with Liberal governments. As ambituous hacks affiliated them for numbers they have been more zealously attacked by the Liberals.
5) Labor has nothing left to gain from unions if it gets in. This round of hacks will be the last (which is why many of them fought so hard in preselections) to safeguard their positions they will burn the bridges behind them.
Glen,
WTF is abolishment? Is it abolition?
Can’t have you inventing words can we?
Pardon my total ignorance of the gambling industry: why do bookies allow people to place bets on a Labor victory if they are certain that Labor will win? Does that not mean they are knowingly giving away money?
ESJ and Lefty E 458 and 460
I have not heard that lawyers hate workchoices.
They have plenty of work with replacing standard agreements with AWAs etc.
I know I’m hours behind Glen’s comments on Wayne Swan as alternate treasurer (and a non-regular too) but those of us on facebook are getting much enjoyment from fake Swannie’s profile and debate with fake Costello…
http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=578252843&hiq=swan%2Cwayne. When he brought the Swanforce One in, I decided that was the man to manage my economy.
Today’s Aus reporting on the Swan/Costello poll result is ridiculous, the GG needs to stop debasing itself like this.
Meanwhile, I heard tonight that Julie Gillard is polling so well amongst a cross-section of women that some planned negative advertising by the Libs has been pulled. Any confirmation from closer party circles??
ESJ, yeah but you still think the Libs are going to win, so your analytical powers are questionable.
Sorry – typo on Julia before you all start yelling at me.
480 PL -
I dont think right now that the Libs will win – I think I said yesterday that at the moment Labor would pick up 20-25 seats. How the campaign goes may change that of course.
I think the Liberals will play long and hard on don’t risk it, fear of the different etc. Not sure whether it will be enough.
Essentially I think Rudd has bought or come close to victory by selling out the unions – because businesses were the best placed to run a scare campaign against him.
Question Edward do you work and if you do, do you get sick leave, annual leave and a good wage?
If so thank the unions because they provided some of these things to you… But watch out for those scary unions…
Having picked my daughter up from the airport, I’ve only just read the last four hours of comments. And a very interesting selection it is, I must say.
Here’s a few random thoughts…
1. The business about “suing” Hockey won’t get far. Defamation law gives considerable scope for debate on political matters and matters in the public interest, and i don’t think you could argue that IR isn’t in that category. The study was part-funded by the union movement, and, much as I dislike Hockey’s attack on the academics, I reckon he could defend a defamation charge (preferably using government-funded QCs).
2. I think a lot of the argument about whether WorkChoices is giving workers pay rises or pay cuts at the moment is irrelevant. I suspect that in the back of voters’ minds is: what will happen if there’s a turndown in the economy? That’s when Workchoices will really bite, because employers will have much more leeway than in past recessions to sack staff or cut their pay and conditions. That’s why some of the strongest opposition is actually coming form older age groups, eg 40-50, because they remember what it’s like to look for a job in a recession. It’s this sort of thinking that saved Keating in 1993 – Hewson’s prescription was seen to make the patient sicker.
3. Whoever asked why the National Party was silent on WorkChoices asked an excellent question. The Nats are stuffed on this one. They know WorkChoices is really hurting casual tourism and low-paid agricultural workers in regional seats, but the NFF thinks it’s the world’s greatest policy. So they have to just shut up and let Hockey carry the can.
4. Good on ya Bill Heffernan! It takes creativity (worthy of a Keating arts grant) to decide that climate change will tempt Asians to over-run Australia. They’ll be rushing to plant rice around Uluru, in all that open space. And it’s great news for Bangladeshis, who normally have to worry about drowning in the annual floods on the Indus delta.
5. Thinking laterally, Bill…if we can’t get real white Aussie farmers to cultivate the Top End, why not invite some of these Asians in to do it for us? They have the expertise – you might even declare them to be “skilled labour” in the category of tropical farming. Even some of those pesky Sudanese might be interested in making a furrow or two. They don’t mind a spot of heat, and don’t need to slip, slop and slap. Might stop them being beaten up in Melbourne, thus meaning they “don’t adapt” to our lifestyle.
This here is a bit of a worry though.
{With the announcement of the federal election due any day, the rules of enrolment have changed, and for around 945,000 Australians who aren’t already enrolled, it could mean they are denied their right to vote.}
http://sunday.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/feature_stories/article_2320.asp
I would advise everyone to check their enrolment, as I have a number of times on-line and it comes up as not enrolled.
My sister rang me this afternoon and said that she checked most of our extended family members on line and her youngest son was the only one who came up as enrolled. Most of them have different surnames, so it is not an alphabetical glitch.
I checked by phone and was assured by the AEC that I was indeed enrolled but I don’t trust that and demanded that their IT people ensure that people are enrolled and that they can check it on-line.
It seems that Liberals on this site come in only two kinds: the hysterically ignorant (Glen) and the totally cynical (Edward). It’s most gratifying to have all my prejudices confirmed every evening.
ESJ,
You know you talk baloney!
25 seats, try 40. And, the blessed Tony will be able to flap his ears and fly away like the elephant in Dumbo.
483 Marky
Unions havent reinvented themselves for the modern economy and are like the dinosaurs dying out. Sadly this great institution has been colonised by Labor spivs – unfortunately its just another example of evolution.
I asked yesterday what advance unions delivered since 1987 (compulsory super) No one pointed to any? Its time for a decent burial.
Good evening.
ESJ I see you are busy this evening & your writings do provide a grin or two as I scoff at some very hard right opinions.
May I ask please what made you such an anti-laborite & turned you into a jaded conservative?
(PS – You really want to vote Labor don’t you?)
Adam
I am sure Talleyrand said something about cynicism? Do you know it?
Haven’t answered the question ESJ. What would you suggest unions do?
Accept that Labor has gone soft on WC. Didn’t need to. Public would support a stronger stance.
But you obviously don’t know Shorten and Combet.
Unions have been building their “individual identity” for some years. As evidence – education unions campaigns on school funding, police unions wage claims, nurses, etc – all campaigns critical of state Labor governments.
And if you think we’ve seen the last of union leaders in Govt – you’re dreamin.
Adam im sure 1984 had a thing or two to say about ignorance….
War is Peace, Ignorance is Strength, Freedom is Slavery…
But ill just put down your rant on a rush of blood…
{Even some of those pesky Sudanese might be interested in making a furrow or two. They don’t mind a spot of heat, and don’t need to slip, slop and slap. Might stop them being beaten up in Melbourne, thus meaning they “don’t adapt†to our lifestyle.}
They might have to watch out for the crocodiles in the rice paddys during the wet season though.
Antonio, I mentioned about the invisible Nats. I sure would like to know how they expect to retain Government non-campaigning like they are.
No wonder Glen has doubts about their 2.5% polling figures. I think they are probably about right because they just aren’t in the picture at all.
Glen you and your fellow rightest Liberals are the reason that I will never vote Liberal again. You view like that of Howard’s is anchored in the past. You have no plans for the future just anger at possible not bieng in power soon.
Just like John Howard Edward don’t answer my question.. let me assume the answer is yes which means you are an incredible hypocrite.
A cynic – someone who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing
No, Edward, I don’t. I’d be a bit careful inviting comparisons with Talleyrand if I were you. He wasn’t a very nice man, though nicer than Bill Heffernan.
Adam @ 477
It’s because they’re not certain of it. The bookies work off probabilities they have calculated about the possibility of a win and adjust the odds accordingly (slightly in their favour). Currently the betting markets suggest a 33-34% chance of a Coalition win, thus they are happy to take bets on Labor as they are not a sure thing.
Bryan at OzPolitics has some good graphs and stats on the betting markets.
Lily Tomlin said,
“No matter how cynical you become, it’s never enough to keep upâ€
Blindoptimist, that was the Blessed Oscar Wilde, not Talleyrand.
Pages: « 1 … 8 9 [10] 11 12 … 14 » Show All