After a century as one of the nation’s most predictable seats, Wentworth entered the national spotlight in 2004 and again looms as one of the most intriguing contests of the coming election. Created at federation, Wentworth originally covered the entire coast from Port Jackson to Botany Bay, before assuming more familiar dimensions in 1913. It now takes in the mouth of Sydney Harbour and its southern shore from Watsons Bay and Vaucluse west to Potts Point, along with a stretch of coast running south through Bondi to Clovelly, and the northern part of Randwick. The wealth of the harbourside suburbs has made this a classic blue-ribbon seat, which has been held by conservatives of one kind or another since federation. Recent Liberal members have included Robert Ellicott (1974 to 1981), the Shadow Attorney-General who played a crucial tactical role in the Whitlam dismissal; Peter Coleman (1981 to 1987), conservative intellectual and father-in-law of Peter Costello; John Hewson (1987 to 1996), disappointing Liberal Opposition Leader; and Andrew Thomson (1996 to 2001), disappointing member for Wentworth.
Thomson was defeated for preselection ahead of the 2001 election by barrister Peter King, who in turn died by the sword in 2004 when Malcolm Turnbull (right) marshalled his considerable resources against him. Turnbull had been spoken of as a potential prime minister since coming to fame as a young lawyer in the early 1980s, when he succeeded in blocking the British government’s attempts to suppress former MI5 agent Peter Wright’s memoirs in the Spycatcher trial. In the 1990s he emerged as the chairman of the Australian Republican Movement, adding conservative leavening to a favoured project of the then Labor Prime Minister. He meanwhile made his fortune firstly in legal partnership with Gough Whitlam’s son Nicholas and later as a merchant banker, establishing business connections that contributed to his fundraising success as Liberal Party federal treasurer from 2002. Despite lingering resentment over Turnbull’s description of John Howard as “the man who broke the nation’s heart” on the night of the republic referendum, Turnbull’s move against King won at least the tacit support of the Prime Minister, who in normal circumstances could be relied upon to support sitting members. Wayne Errington and Peter van Onselen’s recent biography reports that Howard “believed that a failed preselection bid for Wentworth held the distinct possibility that Turnbull would quit party politics altogether and step down as treasurer, deterring donors from putting their hands in their pockets”. After much “recruitment” to local party branches by both sides, Turnbull won the preselection vote by 88 votes to 70.
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| Booth-level two-party vote from 2004, with colour coding showing suburban average weekly household income. The electorate-wide average household income figure is $1609, compared with a national average of $1027. The only suburb below the national average is Rushcutters Bay, immediately west of Darling Point. |
King subsequently refused to rule out running as an independent, eventually announcing he would do so at a press conference on Bondi Beach in the first week of the campaign. Despite vigorous campaigning attended by intense publicity, King recorded only 18.0 per cent of the vote and finished well behind Labor’s David Patch on 26.3 per cent. While Turnbull’s 41.8 per cent was well down on the 52.1 per cent King recorded as Liberal candidate in 2001, it converted into an unembarrassing 2.3 per cent two-party swing after distribution of King’s preferences. The swing nonetheless contributed to a long-term trend in the seat which made it appear of dubious long-term worth to Turnbull even before the recent redistribution. As noted in an analysis by former Labor staffer Shane Easson, the electorate was going through a relative population decline that had forced it to expand in area at six successive redistributions since 1955 (the most significant change coming in 1993 with the abolition of Phillip, which previously separated Wentworth from Kingsford-Smith). There were only two directions in which it could grow: into safe Labor Kingsford-Smith to the south, or even safer Labor Sydney to the west. Furthermore, the latter would be the more obviously appealing option for the boundaries commissioners, as Kingsford-Smith was shaped by the constraints of the ocean and Botany Bay. When the latest population calculations dictated that New South Wales lose a seat at the coming election, the result was predictable: Wentworth shouldered its share of the burden by absorbing an inner-city area noted for post-materialism and a high gay population. This area, which included the balance of Paddington, the harbour shore around Potts Point and most of Woolloomooloo and Darlinghurst, sliced the Liberal margin from 5.6 per cent to a decidedly uncomfortable 2.6 per cent.
Like no other electorate bar Bennelong, Wentworth has seen national issues assume local significance in recent months. Turnbull won promotion first to parliamentary secretary with responsibility for water in September 2006 and then to Environment and Water Resources Minister four months later, confronting him with issues of great sensitivity in his own seat. The most significant example has been the recent controversy surrounding Gunns Limited’s proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill in northern Tasmania, which was contentiously fast-tracked by Paul Lennon’s state Labor government. A campaign for Turnbull to intervene has won the support of celebrities including Cate Blanchett, Bryan Brown and Rebecca Gibney, along with businessman and prime ministerial confidant Geoffrey Cousins. In mid-September, Cousins embarrassed Turnbull by taking out advertisements in the local Wentworth Courier which asked: “Is Mr Turnbull the Minister For the Environment or the Minister Against the Environment?” Turnbull has said he will reach his verdict this week, and that he will follow the recommendation of the government’s chief scientist.
Turnbull’s other major source of publicity in recent weeks has been his role in the recent burst of leadership speculation. On September 11, Sky News reported that both Turnbull and Alexander Downer believed John Howard should no longer lead the Liberal Party. Amid speculation that Howard might be about to stand aside, Kerry-Anne Walsh of the Sun-Herald wrote of a “wild scenario doing the rounds” in which Turnbull would take the job if Costello proved reluctant to do so within weeks of an election. Subsequent reports spoke of Turnbull persuading a majority of Cabinet members that Howard should go, but of the idea meeting firm resistance from both the party room and the Prime Minister himself. Later in the day, Howard could be seen apparently chastising Turnbull on the floor of parliament. Two weeks later Turnbull was forced to rule out a future challenge to Peter Costello for the Liberal leadership, after earlier refusing to answer questions on the issue.
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| Booth-level two-party swings from 2004, with colour coding showing suburbs’ percentage of dwellings being purchased. All suburbs are below the national average of 32.2 per cent on the latter count. |
While Turnbull will be in real trouble if the anti-government swing is as much as current opinion polls indicate, there is reason to believe he has more padding than the notional margin suggests. In his aforementioned study, Shane Easson calculates an effective Liberal margin of 4.5 per cent after allowing for such influences as the “Peter King effect” and “potential Turnbull personal vote”. Figures from the 2004 election exaggerate the Liberals’ weakness in the newly added areas, due to the party’s lack of effort here at previous elections. In an electorate such as Sydney, the optimal strategy for the Liberals is to “play dead” in the hope that they might finish behind the Greens, who could then potentially defeat Labor with their preferences. This time around, these areas will be facing the full force of Turnbull’s well-oiled campaign machine. Furthermore, as noted by Russell Skelton of The Age, the electorate is not suffering the soft housing prices that are biting in more suburban seats like Bennelong. Some sources have suggested the party has greater fears for Howard’s seat than Turnbull’s, although reports of internal polling have painted a mixed picture. In August, Labor was variously said to have a lead on the primary vote of 47-42 and 44-42. Neither gels with a September report from the Sydney Morning Herald which had sources from both major parties speaking of 20 per cent support for the Greens (who have nominated mental health nurse Susan Jarnason). Conversely, The Australian quoted a “senior Liberal source” in late September saying Turnbull was “not in trouble”, and should thus approve the Tamar Valley pulp mill to shore up the Liberal member in Bass.
Labor’s candidate is George Newhouse (left), human rights lawyer and until recently mayor of Waverley. Newhouse’s legal clients have included Cornelia Rau and Vivian Solon, the victims of high-profile Department of Immigration bungles that respectively saw them deported and detained for nearly a year. He is also a figurehead of the electorate’s prominent Jewish community, which accounts for 14.1 per cent of its population against 0.4 per cent nationally. The community is particularly concentrated in the electorate’s north-east, accounting for 49.4 per cent of residents of Dover Heights. Newhouse was head-hunted by Kevin Rudd and installed as candidate by the party’s national executive, after the April national conference empowered it to avert faction-driven preselection stoushes by directly choosing candidates for 25 sensitive seats.
160 Comments
Keep this thread on topic please …
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
The conventional wisdom seems to be that Turnbull is high profile (and popular) enough to retain this seat, even in the event of a largish State-wide swing against the Libs. However, I remain unconvinced. I think the seat will fall – unless Labor make a major cock-up during the campaign proper which sees them drop a few percentage points coming into election day, in which case Turnbull might just hold on.
So in a word (okay, five): I think he’s a goner.
I don’t live in Wentworth but I do live in the greater Sydney area so have been in Wentworth a number of times. From someone who actually lives there though, how visible is the anti pulp mill campaign on the street and in the local media? How effective do you think that they will be? If Turnbull goes, will it be more because he was carried away in a state wide swing or will it be from the pulp mill campaigners and that the Green preferences are likely to go *other* then the Libs as a result?
I think Turnbull will survive. Howard will be gone, but Malcolm will survive. The point about some of those booths being “dead” for the Liberals because they were in Sydney is important, plus, parts of those areas would have a high personal vote for Tanya Plibersek (rather than for Labor itself) which vanishes now they’re not in Sydney anymore, and I think a fair bit of it will march straight to Turnbull.
I strongly doubt whether this seat will fall. The King effect in 2004 was not limited to acting as a clearing house for former Liberal voters who were now going to preference the ALP. An additional effect was the dissent and turmoil within Liberal ranks, which cannot possibly have assisted Turnbull. Both these factors are not present this time.
The number of conscientious objectors to Turnbull (the “I won’t vote for him because of what he did last time” crowd) probably numbers (at most) in the few hundreds. Even then, disgruntled former Liberals are still probably going to preference Turnbull ahead of the ALP. The key is in the vote that King got in 2001 – 52% on primaries. Even with the redistribution, Turnbull should be getting a first preference vote in the high 40s.
For anyone who doesn’t live in Sydney, places like Vaucluse, Bellevue Hill, Point Piper and Darling Point are some of the wealthiest places in the country. There’s some smaller booths that go 80% 2PP to the Libs. I don’t know of any other urban booths that do that (although I can’t say I’ve looked very hard!). Even medium-largish booths in these parts were 2PP 66 to 77% to the Libs in 2004. It takes a hell of a lot of voters in North Randwick, Bronte and Paddington splitting ~55-45 2PP in favour of the ALP to make up those sorts of margins.
There are two other factors I should mention:
- Turnbull is clearly a high profile member, and hasn’t made any obvious major mistakes that should significantly affect his personal vote (I assume he will not make the pulp mill decision before the election).
- As places like Bronte and North Randwick get more gentrified (expensive), there is some prospect that they will similarly be more likely to vote Liberal, as the rental properties are increasingly occupied by young professionals, and owner-occupiers are increasingly people who can afford to purchase there (rather than retirees who find themselves sitting on a goldmine). This is related to the factor that Easson points to (high % of new people moving into the electorate, which supposedly means there is decreased personal vote for whoever is the MP – which I think in Turnbull’s particular case is a non-issue) – but in my view it may in fact not harm Turnbull anyway. That is, the loss of personal vote by reason of people moving out of the electorate (or dying) is only a relevant factor if the new voters are less likely to vote coalition than those they replace. This is obviously a longer term trend though, and it is very difficult to identify the electoral consequences in any single election.
In summary, Wentworth is a seat that the ALP can get close to winning, but really, given the solid core of Liberal voters, it is enormously difficult for the ALP to actually win. In that sense I think it’s a bit like Banks (obviously in the other direction). As I have said before, I think the ALP would have to be winning seats like Greenway and Macarthur before it won Wentworth.
Had another read of William’s intro – looks like my pulp mill comment is not correct!
For those big fans of the “2PP Club”, The Greens out polled the ALP in this years State election for the seat of Vucluse.
Keep looking over your shoulder 2PP Club, and have a look at the senate vote (no Clover factor) for The Greens, in the newly added western part of Wentworth where The Greens won 4 out of 7 of the new booths outright.
Apart from Denison, Wentworth is probably the single most resonant electorate in Australia for green issues- or at least it would be in that part of it that used to be Phillip.
Phillip was the smallest electorate with the smallest number of booths (so very easy to run a campaign in), had the highest membership of conservation groups, had the most uniformity of marginality (every booth was marginal) and saw full-on, at-the-booths conservation campaigns in the elections of 1983, 1984 (senate-oriented), 1987 and 1990, at which an average of some 2.3% of the vote seems to have swung according to HtVs produced by the conservartion movement. That constituted the critical amount which the ALP’s Jeanette McHugh needed to take the seat from Jack Birney in the 1983 election. McHugh gradually made the seat safer for Labor in each election, but always had at least a 2% cushion built on the back of her conservation credentials.
The Greens ran a candidate at the Wentworth byelection when Hewson retired, the ALP didn’t. The Greens got about 23.5% of the votes, from memory, at a time when nation-wide they weren’t even listed in the opinion polls, but probably were achieving about 2%.
I’m interested as to whether Newhouse can attract a significant amount of the Jewish vote. Many in Wentworth are rusted on Liberal voters, so I wonder whether Newhouse can be successful in maintaining a flow of the Jewish vote. I once read that a “Jewish person always supports another fellow Jewish person”, so I’d like to know how much support this generalised statement has.
Also, Wentworth has shifted out with the new redistributions, taking more Labor areas (some with 60%+ booths) near the Paddington area, and has good margins in other booths, such as the Bondi area, so the seat is not exclusively dominated by Liberal heartland Vaucluse.
It’ll be an interesting seat to watch. If the swing is on, then this seat will be the one to watch! Remember that Turnbull’s popularity is always rivalled by Newhouse’s (though of course, to a lesser extent), with Newhouse also being a prominent Lawyer and Mayor for the Council of Waverley.
I think Turnbull will be returned.
With the Federal Coalition at the moment being unpopular at a level not seen for a long time (or ever?) Govt members are, however, not tainted equally. Turnbull would be seen by many as the face of a moderate, even-handed, highly competent person who could lead the Libs at some time in the foreseeable future.
I’m no fan of Turnbull, but I’m sure many would see him as a break from the current diabolical coterie of Liberal, mostly, Cabinet Ministers that surround Howard.
Even though Turnbull is part of this group, he has managed to be seen as his own man to some degree and not as yet another of the headkicking, mudslinging, invective hurling, dishonest and unctuous types who now front the Federal Government.
More on current conservation “runnability”
Wentworth still ranks #1 on electorate smallness, #10 in terms of green groups membership and #3 on an average ranking of all scores designed to measure the “runnability” of a conservation-based election campaign (only Melbourne Ports and Chisholm are higher). It is not, however, as unifrom in terms of marginality as Phillip used to be, being split by an east-west divide south of (generally) Edgecliff. Adam Carr has an instructive map.
What was true of Phillip was also, incidentally, true of its state counterpart Coogee and conservation was such a big issue there that it enabled Ernie Page to hang onto the seat in the Greiner victory of 1988.
I think that Turnbull might want to see parliament enlarged so that less Labor areas are needed in Wentworth. It is not going to happen before next election but it might be useful to him if it happened to him at a 2008 Double Dissolution or just the normal election in 2010.
Yes, Turnbull to be returned.
Forgot to to say that if he losses he is more likely to find a safe seat or retire.
I can see some major contradictions with trying to determine what is the likely electoral outcome in this seat.
The AEC counts Wentworth as “marginal” but gives 2004 figures as Lib 55.48% and ALP 44.52%. Commentators give Turnbull a margin of 2.4%.
I realise that there have been some boundary changes since 2004, and some high Labor voting areas have been added to thee electorate, but I can’t see that reducing the margin to that extent.
As others have said, the “core” of the electorate is strongly Liberal. The Greens factor is surely in play in a number of booths and this will definitely be affected by the Gunns Pulp Mill decision. Will that be enough with an increased ALP vote to tip the result to Labor?
The Gunns issue is becoming even more interesting, as it looks like it could be a factor in the Libs retaining their two Tasmanian seats according to this SMH article.
{A federal government rejection of the Tasmanian pulp mill would help shore up Liberal Party support in a marginal electorate in that state, an opinion poll commissioned by an environmental group says.
Twenty-seven per cent of respondents in the seat of Bass would be more likely to vote Liberal if Mr Turnbull rejected the mill, the poll found.
In Braddon, 46 per cent of poll respondents opposed and 41 per cent favoured the mill.
But only 14 per cent in that seat said they would more likely vote Liberal if Mr Turnbull rejected the facility.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Mill-rejection-would-help-Libs-poll/2007/10/02/1191091117036.html
What is the opinion of others on potential effect of the Gunns issue in Wentworth.
William, a question for you!
If a “marginal” electorate is generally accepted as being around 5% or less, then how come the Australian Electoral Commission can list electorates with a 2004 margin over 10% as “marginal”?
It doesn’t make sense to me.
“For those big fans of the “2PP Clubâ€, The Greens out polled the ALP in this years State election for the seat of Vucluse.”
That’s nothing special – Vaucluse is blue ribbon Liberal territory. I am sure unhappy Liberal supporters would prefer to lodge a protest vote with the Greens, rather than with the ALP (and the NSW ALP state government attracted a protest vote, unlike what the federal ALP opposition will).
I think if the current Newspoll swing of 9% in NSW holds up, Wentworth will follow the rest of the state. If the swing moderates, then it’s going to be a good battle. While I agree Turnbull has some voter “charisma”, I tend to think it’s overstated.
I see The Greens candidate for Wentworth, Susan Jarnason has been on a study trip to the pulp mill site in Tasmania.
Susan will be speaking at a public forum (on IR) tonight at the market place church on Oxford St., Paddington.
Maby the pulp mill issue will feature there.
William’s introductions says:
In his aforementioned study, Shane Easson calculates an effective Liberal margin of 4.5 per cent after allowing for such influences as the “Peter King effect†and “potential Turnbull personal voteâ€.
So if we go with that 4.5 margin I think that earlier posters have focussed too much on Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity or lack of it. What is being overlooked is Kevin Rudd’s popularity. As things currently stand there will be a swing to Labor of well over 4.5% in NSW, closer to double that. If this does not change (sure it might, but it hasn’t all year) then some of these local factors simply might get Malcolm closer to survivng but cannot withstand a swing of that magnitude.
Labor to win Wentworth for the first time ever.
KT,
I tend to agree about Turnbull’s charisma or personal appeal being overstated. You can rely solely on a high profile for only so long before you need to back it up. I think Turnbull actually started from a tough position in being touted as leadership material and a great performer – he hasn’t followed through and established himself as a genuine performer. Time and again he has shown himself as inept and foolishly arrogant. His performances in question time have been lacklustre at best and his interview performances have been all over the shop. I’m not prepared to make a prediction either way on Wentworth, but I won’t be surprised if Turnbull gets knocked.
Adam
I’m afraid to tell you that Wentworth electors are even richer than you have stated. I think you’ll find that it is WEEKLY average household income of $1609 rather than monthly.
Er…. Did you guys get your income data from the back of a filing cabinet you found in the street? Ruchcutter’s Bay and Potts Point haven’t had below average income levels since the 1970s. Nice. What other rubbish do you have up here?
I don’t think “former Labor staffer” quite describes Easson. “Heavyweight”, “number-cruncher”, “back-room boy” might be more appropriate.
He still represents the party at redistributions etc I think.
KT@16
“… if the current Newspoll swing of 9% holds up, Wentworth will follow the rest of the state”.
In 1996 the swing to the coalition in NSW was 7%. The swing to the Libs in Wentworth was 2.37%.
in 1998 the swing against the coalition in NSW was 4.61%. The swing against the Libs in Wentworth was 1.5%.
In 2001, the swing to the coalition in NSW was 3.7%. The swing to the Libs in Wentworth was 0.5%.
In 2004 (which I discussed above at 5) local factors had a significant influence on the outcome. I agree that Wentworth will follow the rest of the state. It will follow a fair way behind though. NSW could swing 9%. Wentworth won’t swing anything like that.
I am going to predict a Liberal hold on this one, although I must admit the odds are against me.
Malcolm Turnbull is so high profile I think the undecideds will flow to him strongly enough to just get him over the line.
I would have thought that this would be a seat where many traditional Liberal voters might consider putting their vote elsewhere (I concede that the Greens might be preferable for many) as a protest against the way the Government has, over the past 11 years, dealt with the sort of small ‘l’ liberal issues that concern them. Issues like the treatment of asylum-seekers, attitudes to immigration, gay rights, the environment, climate change, health care and education – areas the Labor Party likes to think it has the edge on – do tend to resonate with these Liberal voters. And because they are traditional Liberal voters, they are unlikely to change their vote straight to Labor.
HOWEVER, with a combination of a higher than usual Labor vote (bearing in mind that the redistribution has brought in Labor booths anyway), a large anti-Government swing, plus a Green protest vote will, I think, be enough to boot him out.
Time will tell, ultimately, but I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see him go.
I a agree with bryce. “Turnbull would be seen by many as the face of a moderate, even-handed, highly competent person who could lead the Libs at some time in the foreseeable future.
Turnbull with his republicanism etc. is probably the closest thing that the Liberals have to the old fashioned liberal Liberal (a la Holt, Hamer, McPhee etc.) so it should suit that electorate well.
A bit like Petro Georgiou in Kooyong here in Melbourne which has a similar profile.
Scorpio #15
Officially “marginal” means up to 6%. That is TPP up to 56%.
The TPP vote in 2004 in the booths which make up the new Wentworth seat was about 52.5% Lib to 47.5% ALP. So if a nett 2.5% of the voters change votes Lib to ALP in the new Wentworth it will be a gain for ALP.
Thus it is marginal.
Dr Good Says:
Yeah, understood, but I am still confused in regard to a discrepancy between the figures you quote ( 2004 figures – 52.5% Lib to 47.5% ALP ) to those quoted on the AEC web site ( 2004 figures – Lib 55.48% and ALP 44.52%. )
Appreciate if you can clarify!
Josh @ 20: Sorry, I should have made myself clearer. I meant that if the swing is on in NSW, I think Wentworth will go to the ALP, albeit on a smaller swing. I do not think it will swing 9%.
edwardo @ 4: Interesting theory about Plibersek and Turnbull’s personal vote. Does Plibersek have that big a personal vote though? I like her, but I would think her strong vote is more due to the electorate being an ALP stronghold. And would it transfer to Turnbull? I have a few politically uninterested friends in Potts Point who will vote for the ALP regardless of Turnbull (or the lack of Plibersek). It’s more of an anti-Howard thing than anything else.
Turnbull will probably retain Wentworth unless there’s a huge NSW swing, or unless he’s forced by Howard to accept the pulp mill proposal. The seat’s current margin is an underestimate, due to Peter King.
As a Wentworthian I too believe Turnbull has the profile, and more importantly the cash, to win the seat. But I imagine he’s furious at Howard leaving him high and dry before all us homos now in his seat, by putting the HREOC Same Sex: Same Entitlements report in the too-hard basket before the election. Howard’s ear was ultimately bent by Abbott, not Turnbull, on this issue, which makes me think he doesn’t quite have the clout in the NSW Libs as he and many others assume.
Scorpio @25
AEC website shows actual results for 2004 boundaries.
The 2.5% margin is for 2004 results adjusted to 2007 boundaries. (NSW & Qld have had a redistribution since 2004 election).
People keep mentioning how the Wentworth margin is false because of Peter King’s candidacy as an independent in ‘04 – it’s a fair point, but i think it also misses the fact that high profile front benchers can suffer as much as anyone when a swing against a Government and, more imporantly, its leader is on. Turnbull’s high profile is not necessarily a plus – all the crap that he spins to win support locally could well backfire on him if he is viewed as impotent within the Government. For instance, Wentworth has a large and politically aware gay community – if was gay and living in Wentworth I would be inclined to tell Turnbull to get stuffed when he says he supports the HREOC recommendations on eliminating legislation that discriminates against gay couples. The reason i would say that is that he has done bugger all to get something done about it – he hasn’t taken the fight to cabinet – he has sat on his hands and fed bullshit to his own community, essentially saying that he believes in a fair go for the gay community, but he won’t fight for it!
re: Peter King factor
In 2004 Wentworth had a 2.38% 2pp swing to ALP. This has been attributed to the “Peter King factor”.
Other traditional Liberal seats in Sydney received similar swings to the ALP in 2004. Namely, Bennelong (3.38%), Berowra (3.49%), Bradfield (2.65%), North Sydney (3.19%) & Warringah (2.18%).
The Bennelong swing could possibly be attributed to the “Andrew Wilkie factor”. How do we explain the other swings on this list?
AEC summary of NSW 2pp results by division:
http://results.aec.gov.au/12246/results/HouseTppByDivision-12246-NSW.htm
No sign of the rodent’s or Cap’n Smirk visage on the front page of Trumbril’s web site. John Anderson makes an appearance tho.
The guy is pretty shallow. A page trumpets the use of compact fluorescent lights being made more or less mandatory (How’s that for gummint interference in our lives Glum?. No mention of course of the need to provide proper disposal facilities for these (and the standard fluoro tubes for that matter) because of the mercury content.
My wife’s cousin lives at Darling Point and as always is voting Liberal. Didn’t know who the sitting member was, though. Wonder how many there are like her?
Plenty.
Is there such a thing as the “jewish” vote or the”gay” vote. Do people in categories change their vote according to their category? We hear a lot about these “blocs” in Wentworth. But do Jewish medicos vote differently from other medicos? what about gay medicos?
I know that a change in voting patterns among Catholics in Victoria affected federal elections for two decades, but will the courting of “blocs” affect Wentworth? (or the “chinese” bloc in Bennelong)?
Libs to definitely win this seat – may even have a small swing to them in 2PP terms. I just can’t see the good citizens of Vaucluse and Double Bay electing a Labor MP (yet), particularly when they have such a high profile local member.
32/33
My local paper (I’m in the south eastern suburbs Melbourne) yesterday had the results of a survey which indicated that 25% of local residents could not name their federal MP (although most could name the party that held the seat they were in, and whether it was marginal or not).
Scorpio @ 25
The 2004 AEC figures are pre-redistribution figures. They do not account for the inclusion of some left leaning booths now within Wentworth.
I think Turnbull might just withstand the swing. The coalition will loose government, and Turnbull will at some stage challange Costello for the leadership. Costello will never become PM. If Turnbull is still alive when the Coalition next win Government, he will become PM.
I suspect the next Liberal PM has not been born yet.
Pedantry Time: William says Wentworth and Kooyong are the only two seats to have been held continuously by the conservatives since federation. It depends of definitions. Kooyong elected an independent liberal (John Latham) in 1922, and Wentworth an independent Nationalist (Walter Marks) in 1929, so strictly speaking both have deviated from the true path once. The same can be said of North Sydney, which elected Billy Hughes as an independent in 1929 but otherwise has been totally loyal. Gippsland has never elected a Labor member, although George Wise, an independent elected in 1910 and 1914, informally supported Labor before joining the Nationalists in 1916. Barker has been held by the conservative parties since it was created in 1903, and I count Barker as a federation seat since SA was not divided into electorates in time for the 1901 election. I also consider Goldstein to be a continuation of the federation seat of Balaclava, and Groom to be a continuation of Darling Downs. These seats also have unbroken conservative records, although Littleton Groom was re-elected as an independent in Darling Downs in 1931. Strictly speaking, Balaclava-Goldstein is the only seat to have been won by the main non-Labor party of the day (Protectionist, Liberal, Nationalist, UAP, Liberal) at every election since 1901.
I suspect Turnball will retain the seat. You’d need to cut off Vaucluse and Double Bay for George Newhouse to win.
Barry, Ray, thanks for that.
Cheers.
Yes, and Hughes was elected in 1929 as an Independent and Groom defeated in 1929 and elected as an Independent in 1931 because… they voted against the Bruce government legislation that would have handed all industrial relations laws back to the states. This brought down the Bruce government only one year into its term, and at the election that followed, Bruce became the only Australian Prime Minister to lose his seat at an election. Adam’s right about the seats remaining conservative, but the history why both seats for one term ended up being Independent held is fascinating. And from memory, Bruce was defeated in Flinders by a Unionist that his government had previously gaoled.
Adam,
Wasn’t North Sydney held by Ted Mack (an independent) prior to the current member?
The 1948 redistribution made North Sydney a Labor seat on paper hence Hughes’ migration. Labor gave the Nationalist rebels in Wentworth and North Sydney a clear run in 1929. If Labor had run a candidate they might have won Wentworth in 1929 given the swings in other safe Nationalist seats. Present: how could King have reduced Turnbull’s 2PP majority, he preferenced to Turnbull so he would have assisted the Liberals, just as Phil Cleary inflated Labor’s Wills vote in 1996?
Geoff, King’s preferences flowed only 61.2% to Turnbull. I reckon he would have taken more than that as primary vote from Turnbull, though there was possibly some Labor voters who strategically voted for King in the hope of getting him into second place and then winning on Labor preferences. But my guess would be that the weak flow of King preference to Turnbull was a leakage of Liberal votes away from Turnbull.
King didn’t preference Turnbull. He preferenced neither party. Nonetheless, I’ve never been convinced by the assertions that King aberrated the 2004 result. The 2004 election saw similar pro-ALP swings in a number of other traditionally Liberal Sydney electorates.
George, as you can see here. Rushcutters Bay has a median household income of $987 compared with a national figure of $1027 (I said nothing about Potts Point). However, this obviously says more about the number of single-income households than the level of income. My only error was to omit the word “household” from “average income” the second time I mentioned it in my caption, so I think the rudeness of your response was a bit excessive. Since getting things right means so much to you, allow me to mock you for referring to me as “you guys”. As you could have determined if you’d read this site for longer than five seconds before hitting the abuse button, there is in fact only one of me.
Mr King , I think was either neutral or gave his preference to labor
prior to election day …. but changed this on election day & supported
Mr Turnbull via his 2nd prefernces……. Did this lose the Liberals votes or not?
If it did Malcolm Turnbull is sitting on a slightly higher margin ….. maybe
up to 2% higher. if one looks at the pattern of 2pp … then it
is hard to see an ALP victory. who knows? I think Mr Turnbull has a better chance than John Howard though
l
With the completion of the NSW and QLD Federal redistributions in late 2006 the ALP was still extremely pessimistic about its chances of hauling in an additional 16 seats. The pendulum showed Labor could only win a majority on a uniform swing of 4.8% for which it would need to get 52.1% 2PP.
And then there was this creeping exceptionalism applying to Bennelong, Wentworth and QLD.
Hardly anyone thought Howard was in any trouble at all in his own seat, the exception being Malcolm Mackerras. I shared his view and my paper on Bennelong written last year was an attempt to demonstrate that the ‘Wilkie effect’ was negligible in 2004 in Bennelong and that not only was Howard’s margin of 4.2% real he was also in danger from the growing presence of Asian voters in his seat.
Eventually, most polls have borne out this assertion and Maxine McKew has fitted comfortably with the profile of the seat.
With Wentworth the view seemed to be Malcolm name, Malcolm money plus Peter King effect means Labor has no chance. As William Bowe has pointed out, Wentworth isn’t the seat it once was. Each redistribution since 1955 has added territory to Wentworth which has had the effect of diluting the always rusted on conservative vote of the harbour side suburbs of Vaucluse etc.
In my Wentworth paper I conclude King’s campaign did have a negative effect on the Liberal vote and for this and other reasons I said that the true margin Turnbull is defending is about 4.5% and not 2.5% as suggested by the pendulum. That still leaves Wentworth as a ‘must win’ for Labor to win Government.
On the issue of Turnbull’s money, well in 2004 according to his AEC return he spent about $600,000 to win Wentworth. And as others in different forums have claimed ( re the Gvt’s extensive advertising) too much can be counter productive.
Labor is targeting Wentworth with real money and resources for the first time since Federation. It’s preselected well with George Newhouse .
In recent months I think Turnbull has struggled. Howard has said no to some really tame cat same sex law reforms and then there’s the matter of the internally Lib generated ‘shit sheet’ on a Liberal Minister. Turnbull has also failed to generate momentum to the Government on climate change — all he’s done is to increase voter awareness and the climate of ‘change the Government’ to get the issue fully addressed. On the matter of the pulp mill I have no doubt that Turnbull was even prepared to wedge Howard to try to save Wentworth. However, in the leadership machinations he shot and weakened himself and now stands to wedge himself, whatever decision he makes.
Finally, I’ll put out a paper in the next few days re QLD. Anyone who’s had a close look at what happened in 2004 in QLD should know that Labor is poised to make very significant gains in several seats well above the 6% mark.
Shane, very interested to see your comments.
I tend to agree with your analysis of the true margin in Wentworth (4.5%), but I just don’t see it swinging that much. I think the true swing in Wentworth (ie. from 4.5%) is likely to be lower than the statewide swing.
Wentworth may not be what it once was, but it still is what it is. It’s tough for the ALP to win seats where the Liberal candidate is likely to win in excess of 45% of first preferences (Turnbull got 42% even with Peter King in the mix). A higher proportion of rusted-ons means fewer available swinging voters – which means the ALP has to get proportionately more of the swingers than they would in seats on similar (and even higher) margins.
For what it’s worth I don’t see Wentworth being a must win for the ALP – I think the ALP could win 25-30 seats without getting over the line in Wentworth.
I would imagine Turnbull to be safe. I spoke with him about 8 weeks ago now, and he seemed quite distracted and rattled. However, this was right about the time that the pulp mill issue had reached media crescendo, which probably accounted for his demeanor.
He has a far higher profile than in 2004, has wads of cash to finance a re-election and whilst we can rightly point to the canyon-like (both in width and in being very solid!) margin held by Labor over the Coalition, the Greens are polling weakly in NSW, to the extent that Nettle may not hold her senate seat. I’d expect the ALP to perform more strongly than last election but not enough with Greens preferences to topple him.
I also agree with Josh above, the ALP has far better options than this battle! If anything, it should be a blue-ribbon Green than ALP, but it isn’t even that!
Bass, Braddon, Moreton, Bonner are all much easier calls..
William @ 51, please, keep it on topic. The guys running this myspace site have pacifically requested it.
Dembo @ #56
“The guys running this myspace site have PACIFICALLY requested it.”
Peace man!
If Turnbell and Georgiou survive the Liberals have some hope.
Does anyone else forsee serious difficulties with Turnbull’s leadership aspirations, given the dominance of the extreme right in the NSW Liberal Party or am i getting a little too far ahead of myself?
Wentworth looks like being one of those rare Coalition marginals that’ll buck much of the swing to the ALP. I think there’s actually more chance of Bennelong than Wentworth falling to the ALP. Recent electorate polls and betting market odds seem to be indicating this.
Optimist Says:
Yes, he has to win his seat and the right have to face up to the fact that they have made a complete mess of it.
Shane will you make your Queensland paper available?
ggrgrrr, as someone who has to set up databases to call election results, I hate all this talk of ‘true margin’ when what people really mean is that the swing may differ from seat to seat. If there is a 2% swing in Wentworth, the result will be a margin of 0.5% after the election. Not a ‘true’ swing of 4% based on a ‘true’ margin of 4.5%. What everyone means is that if the swing is 4% across the country, it may well be 2% less in Wentworth. If on a booth by booth basis on election night the swing in Wentworth is 4%, Wentworth will fall because the measured margin in those booths is 2.5%, not a hypothetical 4.5%. It’s the frustrated statistican in me that’s gets irritated when people want to re-arrange the margins so that the swing becomes uniform from seat to seat, when in fact what happens is that the margins are fixed and its the swing that varies. The question is why swings are amplified or dampened from seat to seat, and for all the reasons everyone has discussed for Wentworth, it is a seat where the swing is likely to be dampened. Which to answer my own question, is why people who think in terms of uniform swing rather than variation in swing want to talk about ‘true’ margin.
Actually, an analogy is the poet who writes about the sun rising. Only the most pedantic would talk about the earth rotating to face the sun. You should ignore my rants, I’m having a tough week trying to get all the election night graphics to work correctly.
Coming from the neighbouring electorate of Sydney, very close to the new boundary of Wentworth, I can say that I disagree with a previous poster who said that the personal following of Tanya Plibersek in the newly added sections of Wentworth might reduce the Labor vote in those areas. Plibersek does not have a particulary high profile in the electorate.
I also think that some demographic factors are being overlooked. Much has been made of the deep blue areas in Vaucluse, Dover Heights etc. But these areas of the electorate are the least densely populated. The newly added areas in the Cross and Potts Point are predominantly high-rise or medium-rise apartment complexes with very high population densities (ie more voters). The region around Bondi Junction, similarly. The high number of renters in these areas, identified by the low home ownership figures on the second chart will be a significant factor.
I was a little surprised to see the number of Labor voting booths in the south of the electorate around Bronte. This is high-wealth territory. But largely younger proffessionals rather than the ‘old money’ in the north. The left leaning tendency is surely an indication of social liberalism rather than economic socialism. With the hot issues this election focussed on social issues, these issues should play positively for Labor in these areas.
Charles,
good point, but I’m thinking post election. The dominance of the extreme right in the NSW branch of the Liberal party may cause huge problems for Turnbull given his stance on issues like gay rights, the environment (actually admitting it exists) and republicanism. Four Corners did a piece on the NSW right in July last year called “The Right Stuff” that suggested that the domniance of these extremists is only going to grow in coming years. I think it will be very interesting to watch what happens to the Libs over the next 18 months, should they lose the election.
Antony Green #63,
thank you for providing some clarity.
Antony, I take your point. But the “true margin” is an estimate of what the margin would have been without the King factor. Another way of saying it is that local factors on the last occasion appear to have made the seat more marginal than it otherwise would have been. Of course, the swing this time will be measured from 2.5%… And there are “local factors” in every seat.
But oils ain’t oils. Wentworth will be much harder for the ALP to win than any of the other seats on similar margins.
There is a group of high-income private sector professionals and managers who are waiting for Costello, Turnbull has an appeal to this group more than Howard does and this accounts for his slightly better prospects in Wentworth, but the fact is that most seats especially urban ones will go with the swing. I agree with Shane on Queensland we may be seeing a realignment to Labor in Queensland (as has occurred on the state level) that may underpin a federal Labor ascendancy.
Re my earlier post, yes, oops, I forgot about Ted Mack. Very slack of me.
Re Antony’s post, I think the spectre of 1929 is hanging over this government more obviously with each passing week – the issue is essentially the same and the outcome looks like beign similar. Bruce was defeated by Ted Holloway, a veteran unionist who didn’t even live in the seat. (”A bootmaker, my dear!” my grandmother in Frankston recalled in horror.) I don’t think Holloway was ever in prison but it’s possible. He was secretary of the Trades Hall Anti-Conscription Committee in 1917 and it was possible he was jailed in connection with that, as was Curtin very briefly. This would be about the equivalent of Dean Mighell winning Bradfield. The main difference of course is that Kevin Rudd is about 20 times smarter than Jim Scullin.
Turnbull has announced that a decision on the pulp mill decision will be made public tomorrow.
Interestingly, he may be hoping that it will be drowned out in the noise of the election – I just read a rumour on a non-pseph site that all government paid advertising has been canned from Monday onwards.
An election announcement may be imminent, hold onto your hats people…
Have a kiss and a hug, Antony XO
Optimist, I’m talking post election. I don’t think the hard right will give up control of the party after the election, and I don’t think Turnbell will win his seat.
Buried in Shane Easson’s comment was the note: “Labor is targeting Wentworth with real money and resources for the first time since Federation.” You learn more here than you do reading the GG.
On the current poll figures I think Labor have this seat by about 6%. He may be able to hold the tide, but 6%.
It’s too late for the Liberals to swing back to the center, I don’t believe in “The narrowing”.
No. Talking about ‘true margin’ is assuming a uniform swing and modifying the margins to fit the assumption of uniform swing. The King factor may have altered the margin from last time, but it is expressed by dampening the swing this time. What everyone is really doing when they talk about ‘true margin’ is modify the Wentworth margin to correspond to a value of national swing where Wentworth would fall. Anyway, enough of my grizzle. If people want to assume uniform swing and modify the margins they can do so. One election night, I always ignore the national swing and operate entirely on the swing in each seat. It is always the most accurate way to pick the result.
Cherles,
so essentially we’re in agreement right?
I also think Turnbull is a good chance to lose Wentworth, but in the event he retains it, I’m guessing you see the same problems ahead for his leadership aspirations, given the dominance of the hard right in NSW.
Optimist
Yes 100% unfortunately.
Re Anthony Green: We all have our crosses. I agree though with your point. In my case, I felt entitled, in the immortal words of Senator Larry Craig to take ‘a wide stance’!!
NB I was dealing with the view of the commentariat and many in the ALP that Wentworth is out of reach. I have tried to estimate varoius effects including the King factor and then set these against the swing required.
And I’ll let you all in on another hint. The AEC today e-mailed everyone like me who is involved in election night analysis to inform us of the latest information on the media feed.
If Howard loses as badly as the polls currently indicate, neither Turnbull nor anyone in their right mind would want to be Leader of the Opposition. Becoming Leader immediately after your party has taken a heavy defeat is the worst gig in politics, since you are almost certain to lose the next election and then get axed by your party – think Hayden, Snedden, Peacock and numerous state examples. (Mike Rann is an obvious exception.) It might be better for Turnbull if he loses Wentworth. Costello would become Leader and lose the next election to Rudd, then Turnbull could come back and claim the leadership when it might be worth something.
Having said that I’m inclined to think Turnbull might hang on against even a fairly big statewide swing, for some of the reasons William mentions. If he does he would do well not to oppose Costello for the leadership.
Shane, I never win these arguments. Every time I re-calculate seats after a redistribution, someone always says that’s my prediction for the next election. They never understand what I mean when I explain it is actually my prediction for the last election, not the next election. Some Mackay newspaper has managed to say that I am predicting that De Anne kelly will win Dawson with a safe margin of 10%. No, that’s the result of the 2004 election, not a prediction. Anyway, nurse is coming with my medication so i better go.
Anthony, do you know whether those inside the parties make similar errors when discussing and strategising around “swings” or is there a greater level of sophistication than I am attributing to them?
Adam Says:
If the poll are right and “The narrowing” doesn’t occur in Victoria the Liberal Leadership will not be Costello’s problem.
Ray @ 42
“I suspect the next Liberal PM has not been born yet.”
Too right! – and he or she could well be one of the Rodent’s future grandchildren or great-grandchildren!
NB Anthony, I agree with you. On election night I won’t be worrying about the Peter king factor either. At the ALP we’ll be looking at the swing only just as with you.
I’m also not arguing with you but rather have been responding to those who argue about this and that ’special factor’ who in the case of Wentworth start with the proposition that Turnbull can’t lose and then build the arguments accordingly.
I’ve updated the post to acknowledge Adam and Antony’s contributions on the “conservative since federation” issue, and the erstwhile existence of the electorate of Phillip (thank you, Geoff Lambert).
Shane, you can you suggest a better way you might be described than “former Labor staffer”? Peter Brent’s suggestions are a bit informal for my purposes.
William I’d rather you didn’t link to my earlier comment since that will only draw attention to my egregious error in forgetting about Ted Mack
Your wish is my command, Adam.
Re #79. Leader of the Opposition may seem to be a poisoned chalice these days, but it isn’t always the case. Mike Rann, as you mentioned, is one. Bob Carr is another example. In fact, many of the recent state Labor leaders took control after a defeat.
Wentworth still looks pretty safe for Turnbull, but watch him spend spend spend to make sure he retains it.
Question for he can’t be bothered researching it himself.
What is the latest date JWH can go to the GG or his nominee to get an election for November 24th, making allowances for all the writs and stuff that has to precede it ?
PS: Rudd is looking tired of politics already: hope he can go the distance and do more than play a straight bat for the pre-election weeks to come. Im thinking JWW will go for a long election campaign period in hope of a bloody miracle.
I heard on News Radio this arvo that the big media buy people had been told to be where they could be reached on Saturday evening. He certainly seemed to think that we should hold onto our hats this weekend.
Why else has Turnbull delayed the pulp-mill announcement this long? He got the Cheif Scientist’s report what, a week ago?
That was in reply to Econocrat at 71
According the ABC website Turnbull will announce his decision on the future of the Tasmanian pulp mill project tomorrow.
Turnbull seems like a bloke who has gone in politics thinking that he can make a difference or at least gain some power to maybe do some good but then he has met the real deal in Howard and Costello and seen what heartless fellows they are, and now he seems loathe to become like them and or support either of them.
Although I think that he also fancies himself as a great leader and a fantatsic PM, always good to have hope but don’t be to arrogant while having it. He does seem to be arrogant and I mean he has lain down with the devil these past 3 years so will always be tarnished somewhat, as will all Howard’s memebrs, ministers and cabinet.
85 William I’m easy. These days I only do redistributions for the ALp and I also work at NSW ALP Branch Office on election night. Perhaps ‘ALP electoral strategist’ is not too egotistical a description.
One other point about Wentworth: The ALP 2pp vote in NSW has averaged 51% in the 10 elections since 1980. Our vote in 2004 (48.1%) was 2.9% below the average and just 0.7% better than 1996 in NSW. So it’s fair to say that the 2004 Coalition vote is close to their high water mark.
Turnbull should win his seat, he would be a better Prime Minister than Howard. Costello is not a leader he did not have the guts to challenge Howard.
Shane, whats the latest date JWH can go to the GG or nominee for a Nov 24 election ?
Yeah Costello is like the hound that thinks he is the owner only to realise that he is just a dog and will never be in charge.
He has no ticker and while he loves to talk it up in Parliament he will always just be a coward bully in a ‘team’ of coward bullies, with never enough gusto to challenge the chief bully.
I think this is one of the best posts and comment threads from the past few days, and people have done a pretty good job of highlighting the complexities of Wentworth.
I wonder if this is an electorate where the new electoral enrolment laws will loom large in the results
I would love to know what a well known ALP ‘electoral strategist’ would do if he was in JWHs shoes right now to ‘wedge’ Rudd but (a) you won’t tell me in a public forum Shane and (b) I hope Howard does a Forde.
Doh, too late to edit that last one.
Costello is a terrier in the big House, but a complete whoose outside it; go figure.
97 Bluebottle: always count back 33 days and start on a Monday..as you do. So for 24/11 its 22/10 but with the caveat that since the State Governors have 2 sign the writs expect an announcement on Thurs/Fri 18/19th Oct.
The above is to have the shortest possible campaign. Howard could also extend the campaign period by a week or more
Thank you for the information Shane. Much appreciated.
Wentworth while is a marginal on the TPP, but when you look at the primary figure the Libs have 42 to ALP 26, I’m not from Sydney but I would imagine that it’s similar to Higgins which is held by 8 percent.
I think we ought to forget about King factor’s for the last election was three years ago and this time around the issues are totally different, the poll numbers are totally different the only sameness is Howard is still PM.
We have discussed the ALP possibly winning Kooyong and Goldstein, may I suggest if they can’t win Wentworth then I can’t see them winning the others.
I’m tipping Turnbull to hold Wentworth but at this stage I wouldn’t be making any firm predictions of the margin.
I live just a few hundred metres from Wentworth (in Kingsford-Smith), and my gut feeling is that Labor will get a swing here well below the State average, which may or may not be enough to win. I’d imagine that Wentworth will go to preferences, but that in the end Turnbull may well be saved by pre-poll and postal votes.
However, I’m involved in a street-meet for George Newhouse’s campaign in Rose Bay on Sunday, after which I’ll have a better feel for the vibe on the ground. If the harbourside suburbs swing to Labor (no matter by how much – don’t forget the booths from Darling Point to Vaucluse are home to some of the safest Liberal booths in the country), then Malcolm is rooted, because I would imagine the booths closer to me (Bondi, Randwick and Bronte) along with those in Darlinghurst and Potts Point will vote vote overwhelmingly for Labor
The calm b4 the storm.
Things have gone eerily quiet – no startling polls published, no leadership wobbles, no hats and no rabbits. There’s just the waiting and the anticipation. The waiting is like wanting the clouds to break open over Katherine at this time of year. The eyes, the ears, the skin, the mouth are all open, waiting. The whole country feels clumsy and parched and dreary, the way you can feel when you have not slept well enough.
Surely it cannot be long now.
The last day writs can be issued for a Nov 24th election is 22nd October.
Re: 108
Sorry I meant to post the following graph from Oz Pol to calculate possible election dates, etc.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/when2007/
What does everyone think is Howard’s biggest fear for not calling the election???
Could it be that so called safe liberal seat such as this may not be so safe and he is running scared.
Someone asked recently if the Daniel Caffery who is the Liberal candidate for Grayndler is the same person who was bashed in George St and is a cousin of Bill Heffernan. The answer is yes.
http://www.theglebe.com.au/article/2007/09/26/1873_news.html
I have mixed feelings about Turnbull loosing Wentworth. On the one hand he is about the only person that has a chance of dragging the Libs back to the centre and thus making them electable, on the other I think Wentworth is a seat that Labor has to win, regardless of what people say, because if Labor can’t convince the electorate’s gays, greenies and wealthy small l liberals that it deserves to run the country, then what chance do they have anywhere else? In any case, I doubt that Turnbull is ready to leave Parliament and I suspect that if Ruddock vacates Berowra (assuming the Libs lose) Turnbull will stand for Berowra.
Someone asked recently if the Daniel Caffery who is the Liberal candidate for Grayndler is the same person who was bashed in George St and is a cousin of Bill Heffernan. The answer is yes.
So we should be doubly sympathetic then?
#110 What does everyone think is Howard’s biggest fear for not calling the election???
Telling Hyacinth they are moving back to their old stomping ground.
Yeah she wouldn’t rate that.
Maybe he can run the council wherever they more and destroy all the fairness and humanism there too.
What does he say to George B? He’d be a bride without a dowry if he loses the election.
Blindoptimist.
I hope it is isn’t long now.
If I read Shane’s formula right (@103), Howard could wait until Thu 11 or Fri 12 of October to call a Nov 17 election (minimum 33 days) or could call it this Thu 4 or Fri 5 for an Nov 17 election with a week ‘extension’.
That is , the earliest possible election date now is Nov 17th.
At the other end of the scale, he could wait until Thu 25 or Fri 26 October to call a Dec 1 election (minimum 33 days).
There remains 8 possible scenario’s open to JWH for Nov 17 (2), Nov 24 (3) or Dec 1 (3) if you including minimum, one week and two week extension options available.
I must be bored waiting, working this out. Hope I got it right.
Meantime, I hope he calls it this Thursday for a 40 day campaign {1 week extension} and put us out of our misery on Nov 17th , please !!
Antony Green, please if you are around, would you provide a quick brief on how or where one would learn where the parties have or will direct their preferences?
Please refer me to elsewhere if you have already provided same.
Thanks
Thanks, William, off topic.
Back on topic, please.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Nice photo of Malcolm.
Ok William, sorry.
The real issue for Howard is does he want to have another parliamentary sitting on 14 October? He can pass his drought bills and anything else he likes, and try to beat up on Rudd in QT some more – not that the last round did him much good. On the other hand the issue of “why doesn’t he call the bloody election?” will have become acute by then and will give Rudd lots of ammunition. It also means exposing Hockey to more questioning when he is clearly out of his depth.
Turnball will get back in, probably with a swing to him.
Whether he becomes an effective leader of the liberals will depend on the seats lost at the election. A large loss should see the liberals regain control of their party and the feral right wing extremists ejected.
A narrow defeat will see the looney right maintain control and keep the libs in opposition at state and federal level for years, just as the looney left kept state labor out of power in Victoria and the ACT.
Our very own dear Anthony sz:
Jeez mate I thought you usually started that job only at about 6:29 pm on election day
I think something to be considered is that Turnbull is a minister/frontbencher.
People are choosing between a minister who can attract all kinds of goodies to protect his seat, and a nobody who won’t be able to attract anything.
I hope Turnbull hangs around and takes over a ’safe’ seat post election if the wave of dissent apparent in NSW polling accounts for his Wentworth seat by pure mathematics if nothing else.
The Gunns Pulp Mill decision will probably draw a polarised response in his own electorate where it matters most to his survival. The Greens are not going to support him anyway and the gay community are not keen on the Coalition’s attitude to same sex relationships and legal rights/status either.
At least he isn’t an extreme right wing lunatic of the Abbott type.
I think Turnbull will be returned with a swing to him. He has a much higher profile this time round.
If Labor wins the election and Newhouse wins Wentworth, he will be a government member and a party hero, and will be able to attract all sorts of things.
i think Labor will win…or more correctly, the Coalition will lose…in a landslide . In this scenario then Wentworth should fall.
But my gut tells me Turnbull will be saved from the massive swing.
Why?
Because he is a front bencher and his politics are not the politics the swingers and “wet” Libs are rebelling against. The Howard hating Lib supporters in Wentworth will hold their noses and vote Coalition in the hope of a Turnbull win and a Coalition or Howard loss.
Hows this for a scenario ?
Howard survives in Bennelong but loses the big one, Turnbull loses but takes over that awful Ruddock’s seat and Costello loses in Higgins. Beaudiful !!!
I want the Abbott and the Hockey player to survive so they can sit on the Opposition benches and step up to the plate with their ’slow-uh-the-uh-minister-uh for-uh’ {Abbott} ‘naughty unions’ {Hockey} diatribe can drive them to another election defeat next time around.
Brough and Turnbull should sort the mess out, later.
Thommo sez
How could he have a higher profile? Think:
- Spycatcher
- Ozemail
- Lucy
- Republic
and that’s without looking anything up.
What I don’t get is why he had to “stack” branches in that funny sort of Liberal way and spend 500k last time around.
Anywho he releases the Gunns decision tomorrow. Thereby I feel hangs his fate.
If there is a statewide swing in NSW then Turnbull will lose.
Recent Newspoll quarterly figures, and recent Nielsen state breakdowns, don’t augur well for the Liberals.
Turnbull may be in more trouble than we think.
I think his millions will save him. Shouldn’t, but it will.
Didn’t he have to stack the branches because King had done the same thing in 01? If the swing is on, he will struggle.
I’ll go off topic. Crikey Whitey, you can’t find out where parties will be directing their preferences, though you can guess. That’s because as yet there is no election, therefore no candidates and therefore no preference tickets to peruse. Wait until after the close of nominations, which is three weeks out from polling day (normally). Then the Senate tickets will be published, and parties will publish their House how-to-votes on their websites. To assess how tight those lower house preferences will be, consult the AEC’s website for preferences from the previous election.
Someone asked for some reason why the election had not already called. My suggestion would be indecision by the government, just putting off the date because all polling is bad. The longer the election is put off, the greater the chance some miracle will drift accross the path of the election. I personally don’t believe any newspaper report that suggests delay is a strategy. I just reckon it is indecision.
I think the ALP is spot on, with the hot button issues. There are 4 of them that will massive influence. IR, nuclear power, Global Warming and Iraq. Just look at the latest research released today, by a polling company, which backs up my statement. These issues will help bring down Malcolm Turnbull. No amount of his own pocket money will save him.
http://www.kevin07.com.au/fresh-ideas/climate-change-water/nuclear-power.html
Wastepaper bin is already filling with letters and mailouts from our federal member Turnbull
BrissyRod – he definitely will not be buying my vote
Another factor against Turnbull – many legal eagles live in his electorate, there is strong disquiet re: Ruddock & Andrews.
William -Great blog
Fellow psephs have you seen possum pollytics?
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/
Many people are attracted to the idea of MT leading the Libs but remember one thing, the hard core of the Victorian branch still believe that they are the natural core of the party. I am willing to bet that the next Lib leader will be from Victoria.
Malcolm Turnbull was interviewed by Laurie Oakes on the Sunday program last Sunday… I wonder if many in his electorate would have seen it… he looked anything but competent, … “I haven’t seen Labor’s — Labor hasn’t proposed a clean energy target of this kind. I don’t – I’m not aware of that.” and I went to the transcript to check that I had heard him correctly at the time.
http://sunday.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/political_transcripts/article_2312.asp
I used to think that he was one minister who did have it all over his opponent shadow minister, now I think that they might both be weak links.
I think that one thing that Mr Howard has been waiting for is a favorable reaction (a post budget bounce) to the substantial increases in pensions for some people, and newly won eligibility for pensions for other people, that were announced in the budget, but which only became effective about a week ago. This may still have an effect, but its size can only be guessed at.
Those are the four dominant issues, along with the underlying feeling that Howard has been around too long and that Rudd is a fresh face. But IR is the big vote-flipper in the key marginals, where the working-class vote which Howard stole from Labor 1996 is now going back to Labor on the basic class issue of fairness in the workplace. The other three are middle-class issues (sorry, lefties) which are eroding the Lib vote in their safe seats. Whether they will actually win any seats for Labor remains to be seen. Wentworth will be the big test of that. I doubt IR will turn many votes in Double Bay – climate change etc might.
I wonder what Howard was thinking, giving Turnbull the poisoned chalice of the Environmental portfolio, in a party that lags badly on this issue. When Turnbull got the job, people assumed it was a fast-track to a more senior role in the Cabinet, but surely it’s the worst possible gig for a guy with an environmentally-aware electorate.
Maybe that’s why Howard did it, to thwart Turnbull’s leadership aspirations! Better to have him in a controversial portfolio, rather than biding his time planning a leadership tilt from the backbench.
As a Kings Cross resident, Malcolm hasn’t made much of an effort in the Kings Cross area, although he’s opened an office in Victoria St, Darlinghurst. Last weekend there was one Malcolm supporter with an A-frame in a poor location kind of near the Coke sign. Unfortunately for him, very few people took his leaflets.
A few weeks ago, there were three Malcolm volunteers giving out material at the weekend markets near the El Alamein fountain. But they weren’t popular.
Malcolm did direct-post a personalised letter and glossy colour leaflet (displayed in Parliament a fortnight ago) to voters in the Kings Cross area, but there’s been little else.
While money is essential in an election campaign, it isn’t necessarily the case that that whomever has it will win. People living outside the eastern suburbs shouldn’t assume that Malcolm will definitely win – for possibly the first time in a very long time, Labor has a real chance of winning Wentworth, especially if there is a substantial national swing.
William, I wouldnt be so eager to keep things ‘on topic’, after the election it will be just you and the tumbleweeds, enjoy it.
Until early next year, when the U.S. primaries start!
Don’t forget the state elections ShowsOn.
Isn’t there only the A.C.T. election next year? Then nothing until 2009?
There’s always an election on somewhere.
http://www.electionguide.org/
That is correct, thank Christ.
William
The ACT election is just an LGA election in reality. The NSW LGA elections are on in Aug ‘08 and I think the electorate in Blacktown is bigger than that of the ACT although I could be wrong there.
And of course is St. Kev gets up in ‘07 we could have a DD in late ‘08.
^^^ should read “if St Kev”
Erratum: The ACT electorate is bigger than that of Blacktown City
My mention of Potts Point was based on the colour key and the map of the area Mr Bowe. Perhaps I read it incorrectly. In hindsight there are a lot of elderly residents still in the Ruchcutter’s Bay and surrounding areas which may also explain the income levels. Apologies for my hasty analysis.
As for Turnbull’s chances, he certainly has a lot of fanatical supporters in the area. A friend of mine ran a campaign against him at the previous election and the ensuing attempts by Turnbull’s staff and supporters to sabotage our efforts reminded me of the worst that University politics has to offer. They tore down our posters and made up ridiculous slanders that were so transparent as to be laughable. Mr Pooly you are so wrong. There is nothing noble or idealisitc about our Malcolm.
The comments about Turnbull being a better PM than Howard are very flattering of Malcolm T. Mr Turnbull reminds me of the term “all show and no go” I think his leadership would be so poll driven as to make Howard seem like a real leader in comparison. Imagine having a vain, ingratiating used car salesman as a PM and that’s Turnbull. I actually think Costello would be a better PM than he.
Turnbull’s fate will be decided at a press conferance 10:30am today,
when he makes a decision on th Pulp Mill in Tasmanin.
The fate of the Liberal Party’s future could also be hanging on his decision.
Thats a lot of preasure.
And where is George Newhouse, is he still running in Wentworth?
Ditto where is the great green saviour Peter Garrett?
All is quite on the ALP frount.
In my experience, gay people do not vote according to that aspect of their identity. Turnbull will get his “fair share” of the gay vote simply because gay people vote mostly Liberal and Labor (but favour slightly Labor/Greens).
Approved the mill, quelle surproise
Along with Serfchoice, the Tanmanian Pulp Mill has symbolised the very bad years of the Liberal Party disaster on Australia(not to mention the rest of the world) Now Turnbull’s decision has sealed the fate of the Menziesque Dark Ages.
Looks like Turnbull has positioned himself for a place in the ALP, after the Liberals find themselves in the dustbin of history and never to gain power again, where is a borne to rule millionair going to go?—
Hmm, nice to catch up with this next-door-to-my-seat thread (after having no connection for 2 days). Couple of comments: the Eastern Suburbs Your Rights @ Work launch will be tonight at the Bondi Junction-Waverley RSL. That campaign is now leafletting Wenworth. All the coreflutes re Cape York and landclearing are still on poles on the way into Bondi Junction so people can’t say they haven’t heard about that campaign. The pulp mill issues has certainly been canvassed in the Southern Courier (which is Kingsford Smith) and as far as I know in the Wentworth Courier, so todays announcement will get more coverage, with both Greens candidates visiting the mill site last week and doning media concerning it. In some respects Turnbull has trumped Garrett with his “world’s best practice” report (and various recommendations). This is what Garrett had said he would support – does he now do so (and lose by credibility over support a Liberal Minister) or does he attack the decision (and contradict himself).
With respect to a “Jewish vote” – these characterisations are always dubious, but there are some pretty strong networks in the area. Turnbull has tried to work them, but Newhouse has one over him on this.
Thank you, George.
I note that Lateline picks up errors from this site and then amplifies them
I always thought that Wentworth would swing much less than the rest of NSW, and Labor would only win if it was a real landslide across Sydney. Never saw it as anywhere near as likely to fall as Bennelong.
However, I do think there is a real chance that the Pulp Mill issue will bite, and for all the fact that Turnbull’s position is effectively identical to Labor, he could end up carrying the can in a protest vote that could see him tipped out.
The claim that he needed to endorse the Mill in order to save the candidate for Bass shows just how out of touch some politicians are. It seems pretty clear that the majority of people in Bass oppose the Mill, and with increasing strength. Some might resent national intervention, but blocking the Mill would be the only way the Libs could have hoped to save Bass. Turnbull may have cost them two seats with this decision (unless of course Gunns suddenly announces the restrictions are too severe and pulls out, in which case Turnbull will be hailed as a hero).