Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and of a Galaxy poll to be published on Monday bringing the Coalition bad news from marginal seats. Taverner conducted electorate-level polling from New South Wales during the 2004 campaign, which proved fairly accurate.
UPDATE: Sun-Herald coverage now available, complete with the remarkable finding that Labor leads 73-27 among 18-29 year olds. No indication of sample size that I can see. While you’re there, have a look at their nifty graphic showing the size of Labor’s majorities as indicated by monthly ACNielsen polling results since June.
398 Comments
PM due in Canberra around 8ish tomorrow, with trip to Govt House expected in the hour or so after that.
It’s all on.
PM heads to Canberra
October 13, 2007 – 8:37PM
Prime Minister John Howard has left Kirribilli House for Canberra, where he could finally head to Government House tomorrow morning to call the election.
A spokesman for Mr Howard said the prime minister had left his Sydney residence a short time ago for Sydney airport and flight to Canberra.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/pm-leaves-for-canberra/2007/10/13/1191696220930.html
William – Galaxy isnt out until Monday.
I keep thinking today is Sunday for some reason – hence my mixup.
Apologies to all.
Possum do you have any figures for Galaxy?–ok ok ive turned into a poll junkie and i’m looking for a fix lol.
Is it a full galaxy poll? Or just of marginals?
I think NSW and Victoria have realised that the minor states have been getting all the pork for years. This time round they will deliver the ALP victory almost without assistance from any of the other states.
So they will be getting a bit of govt lovin this time around.
I like the idea that Howard calls an election on the day this 59 / 41 poll appears!
gawd i hope Howard doesnt read the Sun Herald over breakfast in the morning, it might make him call his visit to the GG off.
More good news!
Unfortunately folks, I don’t know much more about it.
That’s okay Possum, you’re still our favourite marsupial. Thanks for the ‘rumour’.
Can’t spring a chance trying for business class booking Perth to Canberra, tomorrow. Not that I’m going, merely having a look
Thanks Possum, you’re an invaluable source of info!
That’d be a whole lot extra seats for the Ruddster LOL
ABC news confirms, Howard heads for Canberra. Thanks, Ryano at 2.
If I put these poll figures into Antony Green’s election calculator, I come up with the following results:
Labor 104 seats
Coalition 44 seats
Independents 2 seats
59/41. Jeez those figures are beautiful.
Notwithstanding the possibility of inducing the h-word from Glen, I’d like to see Shill Shanhan analyse this Taverner as the “widening we had to have” ahead of the inevitable “Narrowing”.
If anyone can do it, Shill can. He has the gift.
Howard may as well go to the GG on crap numbers. Now for ‘The Narrowing.’
Dennis Shanahan today was still trying to pretend Howard is a dead certainty to win and Rudd will struggle to pick up even 4 extra seats, let alone 16.
Shanas ought to join the Liberal Party, he lost all pretence of impartiality years ago.
I don’t believe it! Do you think he had a dodgey News Poll? I’ve had few on a Saturday night…you always feel good…but the next day…phew!
Figures like that make me nervous. I’d prefer for the polls to show a solid 53/47, then on election day Rudd gets 55/45!
Mr Combatant, let me just say that wherever you start commenting around the intertubes, I start laughing!
I cant still remember back to the 80/90s when I didn’t have the slightest interest in politics and why I voted the way i did.
I remember Hawke and thought he was good but then after some time he started to speak arrogantly and I didn’t like it much, so when Keating took over I thought that was probably a good thing. Then Keating started to speak arrogantly on TV and it turned me off.
I never did tie the economic troubles of the time to the govt – it seemed to me that the whole world was in the same boat. I didn’t think anything of it. I do remember one thing about Howard from the time – he did a debate with Hawke which every body said Hawke won – but I thought Howard did ok.
When it came to the Keating/Howard election I can tell you I had no idea about Howard’s team or what his policies were – just that I remember him as being OK. Once Keating became arrogant on TV it turned me off. Howard was just another option another politician but not as bad as Keating. I was always going to vote Howard – nothing Keating did could have changed me – because I never took any interest in policies or dirt or what they were saying – it was all blah blah blah to me then. I had decided he was unpleasant and that was that.
So I reckon it wont matter how much the LNP people shout and jump up and down – some people made their decision and our now watching the cricket, fishing or whatever.
Pre-Election date annoument seat prediction which I will re-do come Election eve.
I first see the ALP dropping no seats, and the Nat’s winning Calare leaving us with 2 Indepentants
Tassie = Braddon, Bass
Victoria = Lt Trobe, McMillan, McEwen, Corrangamitte
NSW = Edan Monaro, Lindsey, Bennenlong, Hughes, Dobell, Roberson, Paterson, Page, Cowper, Macquarrie,
Queensland = Moreton, Bonner, Bowman, Petrie, Blair, Longman, Herbert, Hinklar, Dickson, Forde, McPherson, Flynn
NT = Solomon
SA = Makin, Wakefield, Kingston
WA = Hasluck, Stirlng, Kalgoorlie, Canning
This gives the ALP 96 seats but there are a dozen other seats that I would consider ‘to close to call’
Goldstein, Kooyong, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Wentworth, Gilmore, MaCathur, North Sydney, Leichart, Ryan
David Spears on Sky said “Of course these polls will narrow during the campaign.” Why “of course” David? He also mentioned the all most impossible hurdle of 16 seats. The election will be very close according to David. I think he listens too much to the Liberals and their polling.
This video says it all. One of my favorites!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/animations/0,25199,36,00.html
If Galaxy and Newspoll follow those figures, then the bookies are going to go into melt-down.
Isn’t it wishful thinking so that their reporting will be interesting? If the result is already obvious at the start of the campaign, then no one will bother watching their broadcast.
It seems to me it is the political reporters version of the statement “don’t touch that dial!”
I think we know why Howard likes David Spears.
Possum have you the NSW/VIC breakdown? I’m sure everyone would love to see another one of your groovy multi-pendulum breakdowns.
ShowsOn,
Its Skynews and an election, no one will be watching anyway!
59-41 in NSW and Victoria = WTF.
On those figures Labor might yet pick up seats in Victoria and Bennelong will have his revenge via JWH on election night.
I was not counting on any gains in Victoria till I saw that poll result and wasn’t counting on McKew knocking over the PM. Wishful thinking, but the thought does put a smile on my dial.
Here Glen, cut and paste this “Hubris”, it will save you having to go to the Coalition website to find it again.
It will all be over soon: 53-47 would have done me at this point: 59-41 is just dream world stuff, but anything like it will toss the Coalition on its ear in NSW and go well beyond most commentators predictions for Victoria.
Go on Mr Howard, call the election. There is no good news for you except in the Coalition handbook and The Australian newspaper. Bye Bye JWH.
If the complete figures are in the papers tomorrow, I can throw up a breakdown.
Two bars doesnt normally make for riveting viewing, but I’ll see what we can do
How John Howard managed to stave off his last challeng:
1 And Cabinet came together for business hard
2 And suddenly there came a sound from heaven as of a rushing mighty wind, and it filled all the house where they were sitting.
3 And there appeared unto them cloven tongues like as of fire, and it sat upon each of them.
4 And they were all filled with the Holy Internal Polls, and began to speak with other tongues, as the GG gave them utterance.
5 And there were dwelling at Canberra pollys, devious men, out of every State under heaven.
6 Now when this was noised abroad, the multitude came together, and were confounded, because that every man heard them speak in his own language of internal polls.
7 And they were all amazed and marvelled, saying one to another, Behold, are not all these which speak Victory?
8 And how hear we every man in our own tongue, wherein we were born?
9 Adelaidians, and Melbournites, and Queenslanders, and the dwellers in Perth, and Sydney, in Tasmania, and Darwin,
10 Edon-Monero, and Wentworth, in Bennelong, and in the parts of Canberra, and strangers of Murdoch, Journalists and proselytes,
11 Crossbys and Textors, we do hear them speak in our tongues the wonderful works of internal Polls.
12 And they were all amazed, and were in doubt, saying one to another, What meaneth this?
13 Others mocking said, These men are full of new wine.
14 But Johny, standing up with the eleven, lifted up his voice, and said unto them, Ye men of Cabinet, and all ye that dwell at Australia, be this known unto you, and hearken to my words:
15 For these are not drunken, as ye suppose, seeing it is but the third hour of the day.
16 But this is that which was spoken by the prophet Shanahan;
Possum: What have you been saying about the chances of Labor picking up seats in Victoria ?
Supplementary question: If you have read the tea leaves and seats being picked up in Victoria, are they other than the usual suspects in McMillan, Corangamite, Latrobe, McEwen and one Ive forgotten.
I’ll make an early prediction. I don’t think the result in Bennelong will be known on the night, I think it will take a couple of days until the results are known. Whoever wins it will be by less than 500 votes.
Oh yeah, the other suspect in Victoria is Deakin.
LOL, good one Kina: The right of the right churchies will love that.
I’m just happy that this means Labor has a good solid buffer going into a campaign.
Ah ShowsOn.
So you are of the school that think JWH might survive by a handful of votes then the Liberals lose the seat at the by-election when JWH pulls the pin ? Makes alot of sense to me.
For those interested in enrolment matters, this is a copy of my post 432 on the Phoney War Dispatches Thread.
Some electoral information for those who have been asking:
For those interested in enrolment matters, this is a copy of my post 432 on the Phony War Dispatches thread.
!. Senate – Voting below the line – as long as there is a number 1 and 90% of the squares are filled out, with no more than three errors made, the vote is valid.
2. All people enrolling for the first time must do so no later than the day the writs are issued – and they now need to provide suitable identification.
3. People updating their enrolment have three days to do so – no additional ID required. (if the writs are issued on Monday they will have until close of rolls on Wednesday).
4. The time of close of rolls is 8.00pm (or it has been up to now – I don’t think that is amongst the changes that have been made, but I’m not certain).
Bluebottle at 33
The polling over the last 3 months has suggested that funny things have been happening in Victoria – some seats there must be swinging large to make the aggregate numbers coming out of all the polls balance up against what we have a fair idea of in certain seats.I still havent a clue which seats they are though, except that there has to be a few safe Victorian government seats swinging in the 11-15% margin.Newspoll hinted at it (with 11% state wide swings), Nexus hinted at it with huge Melbourne seat swings and now Taverner is telling us the same thing.The only question is whether its those partially obvious seats like Deakin, McEwen etc, or if its the wet libs swinging in places like Kooyong, Goldstein and Higgins.I’d originally thought it must have been out in the boony seats, or even things like Gippsland – but no one seems to be picking anything up out there, even anecdotally.
All I can say is that I’m still as baffled by Victoria as I have been for months.I hesitantly thought something was happening down there, now its fairly obvious that something is happening down there.There’s now too much polling around saying the same thing…. big swings.
Thanks Possum-
Before this poll I stuck to my view that Labor had pretty much exhausted its potential in Victoria. Maybe it is the wet liberal seats I should be watching on election night and not the marginals [as is the case in NSW].
Kina, you’re a funny bastard, meant most kindly. William, if it isn’t too personal, just how old are you ( I’m a Mum and usually considered a pretty safe sort)? I’m interested because you look about the same age as my sons, i.e. the demographic is interesting in terms of the political.
PS: Went to see Death at a Funeral tonight . Funny, bloody funny. I recommend to anyone needing a distraction if JWH dosen’t call it tomorrow morning.
Well I have told family and friends that if, JWH loses his seat and the election, no Christmas presents are needed! Election night is going to be VERY interesting this year…
I’m now 21, so was only 10 when he came to power. I was never old enough to understand politics back then. To hopefully see an ALP Federal Government, its almost beyond belief!
“I’m a Mum and usually considered a pretty safe sort”
I hope so given you now have my work email addy M=lol.
I was thinking last night of asking Mum and Dad about their experience of the Menzies’ long years, and remembered that they are both dead, but how excited they were for Whitlam, It’s Time.
Caused me to reflect, as Kina is expressing, on how little I knew (longitidunally) at the time, except that it was off the back of Vietnam, important to me (nine brothers), stuff such as the DLP had been struggled over in the household, parent’s friends were at odds, incidental to me, there were lots of ardents about over many issues, it was a new time. University education as a chance, hitherto almost impossible, was a fantastic invite. Medibank a huge relief to my parents (eleven siblings).
I was ardent. And remain.
That is what mattered, to me at least. I am sad that the company of my friends proclaim that ‘nothing will change’ under a change of government. That may be the unusual experience, in comparison to the Menzian era, of living a voting lifetime under changing, more or less, governments. Which gives ample room for disillusion.
Young people at this moment may be experiencing something similar. If they are more inspired than disinterested. I do hope they are inspired and I will be less than concerned about my friends, who still are voting Labor, once again instead of otherwise.
Many thanks (O Bushy one #31). Would be interested to see what sense (if any) can be made of the VIC polling.
Gosh darn it, now I have to have a serious look at Victorian seats.. I had a nice tidy 30 odd to ‘watch’ without Victoria rating a mention.
Sufferin suckotash !!
24th November is schoolies weekend in SA, and during the broader schoolies period for most states. Any idea whether that will make much difference?
BRING IT OOOOOOOOOOON
A bit about the poll – cant find anything elsewhere yet though:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22582402-29277,00.html
Thanks Possum at #41 and Apologies to Bluebottle at #33
Simply amazing:
The poll shows 73 per cent of people aged 18 to 29 in NSW and Victoria prefer Kevin Rudd’s Labor Party to Prime Minister John Howard’s Coalition.
It also shows 60 per cent of those surveyed aged 30 to 54 years prefer Labor.
I’m not surprised by talk of a swing in Victoria, everyday I talk to a great number of people across public and private sector industries and can say that the biggest critics of workchoices tend to live in Liberal seats.
I think Victoria will be patchy with all Govt seats under 10% being worth a look expect Higgins and Dunkley, above 10% I feel Casey, Aston, Goldstein and Flinders are worth a look.
What’s scary about these poll numbers is Victoria isn’t known as big swing state like Queensland and NSW.
Eric @ 49 Perhaps Alex will be to smashed and forget to vote.
The 24th is also the start of schoolies week in NSW and the end of it in QLD. A lot of potential 1st time voters will fail to vote. Politics will be the last thing on their minds.
The oldies movement is interesting, its somewhere around a 9% swing to the ALP.
Possum, There’s absolutely nothing anyone can tell you about Victoria except that Howard is particularly loathed here, plus the antipathy between the Costello mob and the Kennett mob. Kennett now loves Kevvie because of the pre and post birth depression iniative with & $ attached. From my professional point of view, it’s a smart thing to do. However, there’s always the money, when it comes to health funding. And if Bushfire Bill got himself into a knot about the possibilities of advertising $ being the point of Howard’s manouverings, you would have a field day about the money involved in health technology.
Well then, Kina 53.
bluddy hell Eric, i think we’re going to have to put my granddaughter under house arrest if thats the election weekend, i dont think we could stand the worry over her AND the election outcome at the same time.
How many kids turn up to this event?
“Labor is however favoured by 56 per cent of all women surveyed, and 62 per cent of the men.”
Never thought of JWH as a chick magnet.
“John, John, wake up, I have it”
“Australians have never been….what dear, you have what ” ?
” I have the solution to the polls John, I got it at the hairdresser”
“Youve been talking to Hillary again, haven’t you dear”
“What ? Never mind. Here it is John, Schwarzkopfs RE-NATURE Repigmentation”
“Oh, uh what do you do with it, should I eat first before I drink it”
“Funny John, you know how that makes me err….well you know, when you titter so., But no, you put it in your hair John”
“Darling you might have noticed Im going bald and that comb over you trained me to use isn’t working anymore”
“Dosent matter John, you can give the perception that you have RE-NATURED yourself , you know like you did with the Abadidjabe…oh God, weve ignored them for so long I can’t remember how to say it..Abadidja..”
“Never mind that J, what do the application instructions say ? ”
“Well John, you need to use 2 tubes of ‘Medium Cream’, you know like when you started throwing money around to pretend you were a moderate in the middle ”
“Oh ok, what next”
“When your done with that you apply one tube of ‘Caring Shampoo’
‘You must be joking, even my pet sock won’t swallow that one, Caring, Phhh”
“Okay John, well you might as well use the plastic gloves for something.. I have an idea..”
“Now youre’ talking, open that packet dear”
Hello Bluebottle, You’ve now also got my address. It’s O.K. if you ‘re on my side, you get chicken dinners, if you’re on the dark side, you get slivered livers.
Shanahan and others like him annoy me too at times, but I think they unintentionally serve a valuable purpose for the ALP. It doesn’t pay to go into elections with everyone saying you are a shoo-in because of the tendancy for some electors to side with the underdog. Hence Peter Beattie’s insistence in the recent Queensland election that it would be close – when he and anyone with even half a brain knew it would be an absolute creaming.
So let the likes of Shanahan and Spears persist with their myth that the polls – which haven’t changed for nearly a year now – are about to narrow. They are only playing into the hands of the ALP.
We got decent rain tonight – an omen. Labor must be on the way.
Kina squillions of them will be out celebrating and off the planet– it’s the graduation event of the year,a sort of coming of age, it’s usually at Victor Harbour here.
Would be too mean minded of me to comment on JWH in the lycra shorts and the wattle track top, looking ever so……
Eric Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 10:51 pm
24th November is schoolies weekend in SA, and during the broader schoolies period for most states. Any idea whether that will make much difference?
Probably be a big heap of informal, absentee ballot papers go in.
Most of them will probably be too drunk or drugged to know what they are doing. lol
This up on the SMH about the Taverner poll
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labor-leads-coalition-in-latest-poll/2007/10/13/1191696246427.html
judy 66. Let’s rove and round ‘em up, if needs be, I will desert Brighton area to do so. Think Victor is Kingston, I have Amanda Rishworth’s phone number, if needs be.
Kina: 100 000+
This idjit volunteered to round up a bus load of letter droppers for tomorrow so I better go to bed. Night all, enjoy the last sleep before the big correction election announcement.
good idea Crikey, march ‘em in to do their duty, i dunno about rounding them up — more like propping them up i think, i can hear our Amber now-”nan you wouldnt dare, really nan, no, you wouldnt dare, yoiks nan dont you DARE”!!! pmsl.
Bearing in mind and with great respect, your experience, Judy, a little reminder as to the boys and girls as to their real duty apart from sentimental Anzac nods, may help.
Nobody has commented on what I believe is the quote of the campaign. An Aboriginal spokesman from Qld yesterday described JWH and his reconciliation enlightenment as “new skin, same old snake!” Classic!!
Whatever happened to those “South Park Conservatives”?
Remember them – I swear some dingbat was was raving on about these dudes changing the face of politics permantly or some twaddle.
Kina Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 11:04 pm
55
James J Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
The 24th is also the start of schoolies week in NSW and the end of it in QLD. A lot of potential 1st time voters will fail to vote. Politics will be the last thing on their minds.
How many kids turn up to this event
A few, mainly the ones that are sick of school, parents, teachers and the ones that want to get ripped, drunk and laid….in that order
Good news from Brisbane Central.
Grace Grace out polls Beattie.
{Ms Grace won the inner-city Brisbane seat after securing more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, surpassing Mr Beattie’s result of 49 per cent of the primary vote at last year’s state poll.
With almost 60 per cent of the vote counted, Ms Grace lead with 50.06 per cent of the vote, or 9,753 votes, representing a one per cent swing to Labor.
Her closest rival, Greens candidate Anne Boccabella, trailed with 33.96 per cent of the vote, followed a distant third by Family First candidate Mark White with 7.87 per cent of the vote.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labor-wins-Brisbane-Central-byelection/2007/10/13/1191696239875.html
Another good omen, me thinks.
Got this one stuck on a previous thread. Here it is again.
So it seems it will be called tomorrow. I’d tipped it for today based on information received. Got it wrong. I doubt Howard will be dropping in on the GG tonight. My impression of him (the GG) is that he will probably have the jammies and dressingown on and sipping a mug of Milo in his armchair.
But what I want to flag now is that if Howard wins the election I’m calling for an inquiry. Not an inquiry into the polls (as in UK some years ago – forget when). An inquiry – no, a Royal Commission – into the Australian voting public.
I want all those people who told the pollsters they’d vote Labor and then changed their mind to stand up an explain themselves.
We will need to know why they got it wrong. Public humiliation should be required.
Question for some of you…Was there more agreement (ie. funding) when the ALP was in office Federally and in Some states at the same time?
I’m thinking of the 80’s, as here in SA we had Bannon and Hawke in office…
Correction for that news.com.au story.
“It also shows 60 per cent of those surveyed aged 30 to 54 years prefer Labor.
But the coalition just edges Labor with the over 55s, with 51 per cent favouring the Government.”
The actual figures in the poll are apparently Labor ahead 51-49 in the 30 to 54 years and remarkably 59-41 in the over 55’s!
This info comes from my reliable source. So the big story really is the massive youth vote and grey swing to Labor.
History will record that HOWARD and HUBRIS got drunk on POWER after the unexpected senate majority in 2004 and 9 months later produced an absolute bastard of a lovechild: Workchoices.
Now all the Libs have to live with the consequences…
btw Primaries are supposedly 50-38
Victor Harbour is in Mayo. There won’t be an election there because Lord Downer holds it by hereditary right.
Bob Brown is off with the fairies again though.
{Greens leader Bob Brown said the result augured well for the upcoming federal poll, expected to be called as early as Sunday.
“We are delighted,” Senator Brown told AAP.
“It is a huge fillip to our campaign for the Senate with Larissa Waters. We couldn’t have had a better start to the federal election campaign.”}
Most of that 33.96% vote for the Greens would be most likely Liberals with nowhere else to go.
Actually he (Michael Jefferies) is OS at the moment. Acting GG is Marie Bashir.
No Darryl, he’s back.
#83: The GG returned from overseas last night
@79 Winston,
I think you mean a Truth Commission, Archbishop Desmond Tutu style? Or maybe that should come if Rudd wins.
If Howard wins this one I will be seeking refugee status in Canada.
Sorry.
I intended, Adam, that if a booth presence was helpful. Doesn’t matter about the electorate, per se.
{Governor-General Major General Michael Jeffery returned to Canberra on Friday night after a long trip abroad.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/PM-in-Canberra-as-election-fever-builds/2007/10/13/1191696239246.html
“The actual figures in the poll are apparently Labor ahead 51-49 in the 30 to 54 years and remarkably 59-41 in the over 55’s!”
Make sure the oldies don’t go to schoolies week. Maybe the election will be 17th or 1st December
Crikey, i’m in Wakefield and thats sure to go our way, but my little social butterfly grandy lives in Boothby and every vote counts for us there, besides this old fossil isnt very impressed with the thought her running amok with a bunch of testesterone fired pimple faced brats.
The Greens are either ignorant or deluded. A state by-election with no Liberal is quite meaningless. It tells them nothing about the federal election. They are a very long shot for a Senate seat in Queensland, although at least they have given up running the snake Hutton, for whose bad behaviour see here:
http://www.greenswatch.com/bob_brown_embarassment.aspx
Rudd needs to do an ad to Parents and kids – kids, vote!
On reflection, the youngsters who have taken the trouble to enrol would intend to vote. Wherever they may be.
judy, I’m in Boothby. Still anguishing over where to put my booth effort, given. First loyalty is Kingston, anyway, forever miserable that I am cast out of my original electorate. Can’t see your gran roving Victor, true.
I don’t know if I can handle this campaign. Might go on holidays for a few weeks. I’m sick of anxiously waiting for the next poll to reassure me that everything is still ok.
Should El Rodente blow his bugle tomorrow for Nov 24, site habitues who are fortunate enough to remain attuned to circadian rhythm will have 40 sleeps before our Night of Nights.
Yeah, BB, went with the family to see it tonight also, to the merriment of all. Didn’t think of you-know-what once. Very therapeutic.
Thank you, Mr. Possum. From a wicked-witted marsupial, that’s high praise indeed.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/race-is-on-as-virgin-voters-go-for-rudd/2007/10/13/1191696241329.html
“South Park conservatives” was a coinage of Andrew Sullivan, a gay Catholic Republican, poor baby, but an entertaining blogger
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/
Good, Enemy Combatant. Always helps to distract the mind. South Ozzies might like to think of Tasting Australia on the Torrens Riverbank, tomorrow. I’ll be there. (with my trannie)
Those of you with student children of voting age, who might be away from home for schoolies, should encourage them and their friends to vote pre-poll before they leave.
By encourage, I mean frogmarch them down to the polling place. Typically pre-poll operates for two weeks prior to the day, and a vote can be lodged at any electoral office (not the schools and halls of polling day).
Anybody know who will be on Insiders?
The heavy Labor preference by the over 55s indicates a lot of people concerned by the effects of WorkChoices on their kids and grandkids. To capitalise on this, I hope the trade unions really step up their campaign once the election is called. Let’s see if the Liberals run any pro-WorkChoices ads (lol).
Well this has just sucked all the air out of Howard’s reconciliation ‘come back’ and totally disrupted his planned campaign launch pad.
Brilliant.
Jason Koutsoukis in The Age “Blown up by WorkChoices”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/blown-up-by-workchoices/2007/10/13/1191696241368.html
Take the age breakdowns with a grain of salt. Sample size for each group is ~300.
Anybody know about this, from ozelection2007 site:
“but here in Sydney you can watch Four Corners on the ABC this coming Monday night.,they are doing a show on the Exclusive Bretheren and the links to the PM and the Liberal Party.”
Forget the schoolies, half of them are to young to vote anyway. Think of the uni students, this is gonna clash with my exams and final assignments. While uni will clash with my campaign helping. It would almost be worth failing and having to repeat some units if labor wins.
Jason Koutsoukis
October 14, 2007
Young people fear it, workers resent it and business people hate its bureaucratic complexity.
WorkChoices has been a disaster and Howard will have to wear the blame.
.
.
That says it all really.
Adam, I think that one of our local pollyvamps (Devine or that Albrechtson lass) took Sullivans cliche and turned it into 4 degrees of stupid, using the fact that the 04 election had roughly the same number of 18-34s giving their primary to each of the two majors.
Agree though – Sullivan is a great blogger, especially since his epiphany about the way politics actually works in the US.
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2007/s2057172.htm
Good thinking, Peter Fuller.
And same about the frogmarch for the maybe other childies, perhaps early twenties, who, are as some of my nieces and nephews, usually working a full (ill paid) Saturday.
From the Jason Koutsoukis’s article- The Age.
“Howard’s famed instinct for being in touch with the electorate has proved a myth.
The WorkChoices folly has exposed Howard as being just like any other politician who stays too long. They start to hear voices and believe their own bull.
The Coalition’s toadies are still talking up the prospect of Labor self-destructing like Mark Latham did in 2004.
The big difference is that, already well in front, Rudd is under no pressure to perform the stunts Latham had to pull to get people’s attention. Instead, Rudd has the luxury of being able to run a cautious and careful campaign.
In contrast, Howard looks nervous, rattled and tired even before the campaign has officially begun.
This time around, it may well be Howard who makes the horrendous blunder”
————-
……Sh#t yeah, finally MSM are waking up to the fact that Workchoices, Howard’s 30yr old baby was a dud policy. Having all of the Liberals and Nationals voting for this piece of shite legislation makes them all targets on voting day.
Now that the real figures have come through on that oldies breakdown, those figures seem too large.That’s approaching a 20% swing against the Coalition in their historically strongest age demographic.A 10% swing I’d believe, maybe even 12%…. but something approaching 20 is out there folks.
Small samples will do that – the headline figure is a solid one though.
Wow, I can smell a few awards for 4Corners again.
Hossen27
ALP candidates in Cowan and Tangney are Uni lecturers so can get you passes if you help out on their campaigns.
Vic results dont surprise me.
a. 60+ can a do vote ALP at state level.
b. Even Latho got 49% 2PP. Thats hardcore.
c. Fraser – the grand duke of victorian liberals – is basically a full time campaigner against Howard. This is small-l territory down here. Even Bailleau, as pissweak as he is, must be said to be the least deranged member, most presentable member of the freakshow otherwise known as ‘the state opposition leaders’.
This just reinforces what Possum and Adam have been saying for ages, that Workchoices is a dominant issue in this election.
{The Government’s controversial WorkChoices has emerged as a major vote switcher, with two-thirds of voters saying the laws were having a strong influence on their voting intentions.}
Also, I can’t think why pollsters seem to have trouble accepting what is clearly evident from the data collated during the poll.
{Pollster Philip Mitchell-Taverner said the results were calamitous for the Liberals “and far worse than I expected”.
“Their only hope is to find a way to discredit Kevin Rudd, and he seems impregnable at the moment, despite concerns that he has not proven himself as a leader yet,” he said.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/race-is-on-as-virgin-voters-go-for-rudd/2007/10/13/1191696241329.html
Surely, if 50 to 60 percent of people are prepared to vote for Rudd, and a similar percentage prefer him to Howard, and this has been fairly consistent throughout the polls and for considerable time, then where do the concerns come from that Rudd has yet to prove himself or be accepted by voters. It just doesn’t make any sense whatsoever.
Something I’ve noticed lately – the viral like spread of the term “the narrowing” in the MSM. Funny how these things spread
All your cliches are belong to us!
Had a look at Jason Koutsoukis’s article- The Age.
Astonishing, really, that the MSM are getting it. Finally. Am I mistaken, but is JK usually a Howard barracker?
Jason Koutsoukis October 14, 2007 writes
‘Young people fear it, workers resent it and business people hate its bureaucratic complexity.’
I reckon the ALP could use that as a slogan.
I’ve finally corrected the error about Galaxy coming out today rather than Monday.
{In contrast, Howard looks nervous, rattled and tired even before the campaign has officially begun.}
Not anywhere as nervious and rattled as he will be if Galaxy and Newspoll come up with similar figures.
{This time around, it may well be Howard who makes the horrendous blunderâ€}
He may not need to, now. There’s a string of them made already, but the biggest one of all, “workchoices” is probably enough on its own to see him off.
Let them believe in the Narrowing – as long as it keeps them from smear campaigns.
If the Coalition suffers the electoral catastrophe they deserve, and the cause is put down to WorkChoices, it will be the ultimate rejection of Howard and his bizarre beliefs. How satisfying that the most cherished Howard policy is to be his unglorious downfall. Showing that, on IR, he was always woefully, tragically out of touch.
Dr Good #120
Good thinking but not much help to me, they are both UWA lecturers (I think) and unfortunately I dont go there. Guess ill have to resort to bribes.
This:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/howards-enemies-the-young-and-the-restless/2007/10/13/1191696235752.html
Says the numbers for the over 55s are 49/51 the Coalition way – that’s much more believable…. an 8% swing.
60/40 in the 50-54 age group is consistent with other polls as well.The young are swinging big is also not surprising – CT back in June was picking up a 20% swing in the youngish folk.
Oops 60/40 in the 30-54 age group.
Antony Green’s Election Calculator is going to get a fair sort of a work-over this week. Especially by liberals in marginal and what have been considered, reasonably safe seats.
And on the Black Flip, this is exactly why I employed this pseudonym.
This is what happens to MPs who don’t monitor their Wikipedia articles.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Tollner
Yes, completely out of touch, and a bizarre ideological frankenstein in permanent backflip mode to boot.
Perfect way to start the campaign; with a steel-capped poll boot to the nads.
As I said earlier, my own view is that Howard will be on ropes by week 2 of the campaign.
Surprisingly it says: “The neutrality of this article is disputed”
Oh, and one last note for the evening, on the 07 theme:
1967: Howard’s loses in attempt to win NSW seat
1987: Howard loses federal election.
2007:….
“Race is on as virgin voters go for Rudd”
Self appointed bastions of the public morality like Bill Heffernan will bring serious grief to La Cause if he shoots from the hip in response to a headline like this.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. In order to tighten his Party’s perceived lock on “more experienced voters”, perhaps the good Senator could counter by brandishing a Boiler Attendant’s Certificate to camera during his doorstop tomorrow.
Adam,
I bet Tollner would like to wipe those fingerprints off quickly now.
#138: 3rd time lucky?
Crikey Whitey @ 124,
Jason Koutsoukis is certainly no Howard supporter. He was an ALP member in his early days, before his decision to become a journalist obviously forced his resignation from the party. He’s never been a favourite of the Coalition’s.
News just in:
Crosby and Textor sigted this evening on the outskirts of Bourke, spotlighting for rabbitts.
Confirmation that Howard has run out of his supply of rodents.
I’ve always found the term “South Park Conservative” a rather curious oxymoron.
Anyone who’s seen the way the show so consistently pushes the envelope knows that South Park could not, in any way, be described as conservative. It’s the very antithesis! Indeed, South Park often comes under fire from conservative religious and “family values” groups in the US.
I wonder if the right-wing commentators who bandy the term about have actually ever watched the show. (The term “South Park Republican”, on the other hand, I have no problem with.)
Media looks 100% certain it’ll be November 24.
The Herald sun especially: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/
Too late, it has already been mentioned in the local paper and in letters to the editor. I used it once as well. ;]
Thank you, Charlie 124. Suspected I may have been overly suspicious. Getting it a bit edgy, I think.
Yeah, must be. 142.
Wedge Watch!
“THE Howard Government is considering banning Islamic scarfs at Australian airports, senior government sources have revealed.”
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22580158-662,00.html
well that is seriously loopy
How many bombs can you hide under an Islamic scarf?
One day a terrorist will disguise himself as Santa Claus and then we’ll see if anyone calls for Santa outfits to be banned.
Hilarious Hansard extract #235215363
24th October, 1984
Senator Robert Ray (ALP, Victoria):
I give notice that, on the next day of sitting, I shall move:
That the Senate congratulates the Leader of the Opposition in the Senate Senator Fred Chaney for his achievement of a one per cent poll rating amongst Liberal voters who had been asked who they preferred as Opposition Leader.
http://parlinfoweb.aph.gov.au/piweb/view_document.aspx?ID=465510&TABLE=HANSARDS&TARGET=
[“THE Howard Government is considering banning Islamic scarfs at Australian airports, senior government sources have revealed.â€
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22580158-662,00.html
God I will be happy when this racial wedge politics approach to public policy is over.
What a stupid proposal, because as we all know if someone wears a head scarf in an airport they are up to no good.
I doubt the Howard Government would go to the polls with this as proper policy.
If the election is called tomorrow it will die as a story and I think Labor will just ignore it.
How many bombs can you hide under a scarf?
One day a terrorist will disguise himself as Santa Claus and then we’ll see if anyone calls for Santa outfits to be banned.
“Southpark Libertarians” is a more descriptive term, based on a show which mocks authority in any form, at every turn.
Told u it would be a 6 week campaign. Rudd will be all rubbery and gristly after being roasted for this long.
Either it will be announced before Howard calls the election, and thus it will be implemented as government policy. Or if they announce it after Howard calls the election they will need Rudd to agree to it.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22582400-5001021,00.html
By political editor Glenn Milne
October 14, 2007 12:00am
AUSTRALIA will go to the polls on November 24.
Prime Minister John Howard last night flew to Canberra and will visit Governor-General Michael Jeffery at Government House today to seek an election.
It will be a six-week campaign aimed at wearing down Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd.
That seems only consistent, for someone going cap in hand to the electorate.
It seems Howard is still trying hard to blow the racist dog whistle. That’s only one of the reasons why I want to see him thoroughly thrashed at this election.
The Ministry of Racism at it again?
Anti-Asian rehtoric
Drowned boat people
Refugees detention centres
Tampa
Children Overboard
Haneef
Sudanese
This government wouldn’t like to use racism at elections times?
Perhaps Rudd can combat Howard’s wedge with an ace relating to hurting the hip pocket, especially the bogans who drink a lot of beer. Apparently beer in NSW is going to go up due to the costs of barley going up because of the prolonged drought.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22580205-29277,00.html
If you look at the Glenn Milne article and see the picture of John Howard talking to the lady:
My question is where is his right hand and what is he doing with it and saying that is making him and her so happy?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22582400-5001021,00.html
AND Gillard’s pissed that they are smearing her partner.
Now that has got to be really, really dumb by the Govt [doesnt matter if it come from the press - it will be assumed Govt] especially after the last day of Parliament when Rudd put Australia on notice as to the Howard Govt’s smear tactics – AND there being a dirt file from the Govt on Gillard.
That will be a few more women jumping the good ship Howard.
Here’s the smear campaign against Julia Gillard.
{WOULD-BE deputy prime minister Julia Gillard has lashed “muck-raking” politics for turning up new allegations about her partner’s past.
It is claimed her partner, hair products salesman Tim Mathieson, bombarded a Shepparton woman with hundreds of insulting text messages.
Mathieson denies claims that police were called over his alleged harassment of the woman last year.
And it is claimed Mr Mathieson has admitted to a drink-drive smash, fathering a child as a teen and walking out on a hair salon in which his father invested $30,000.
Yesterday, he and Gillard dubbed the smears “despicable”. }
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22580737-662,00.html
If this is the best that they can come up with, they deserve to be slaughtered at the election.
Howard must have some very interesting photos of Andrews to get him to do things he is. No one would behave like that normally, surely?
It will be interesting as the Govt reverts to type in this election and people get to see in full detail and remember why they want to get rid of them. Remember Burkegate?
I, for one, have never seen in Australia, someone garbed in the ‘niqab or burka’….however misspelt.
An unforgettable and sickening image to me is of the defenceless woman, in burqua, beheaded in public view at a football field.
Capital Punishment defended, anyone? Headscarf, big deal.
Good to see Matt Price back on deck. He’s going to try and carry on through the campaign. Once the thrill of the chase gets in your blood, it’s hard to give up, even when you are not well.
{DURING this excruciatingly protracted election year, John Howard has done to national politics – and his once formidable brand – what the boffins who added cherry flavouring to Coca-Cola in the mid-1980s did for the famous soft drink: it was an expensive, infamous marketing disaster.}
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22581056-5000117,00.html
That’s funny, I clicked on the link to the article Possum 149, and got it.
Just clicked again, page not found. What does that mean?
link is working for me
Possum. Tried again. Link established. Must be other mysterious force.
The liberal bloggers/staffers on news.com.au are playing the, “would you vote for a party that choose Mark Latham as its leader in 2004″ card. Seems a bit desperate.
Re: Wedge Watch. So what are the Gulf Air and Emirates hostesses going to wear?
Maybe I should play the “who would vote for a party that couldn’t get rid of Howard card.”
Good spotting re Matt Price, Scorpio. His article as feisty as usual. On ya, Matt.
Hossen 27 Do you have the link for that blog. I’m feeling particularly belligerent.
Mark #176
here you go. have fun
News.com.au
Merci H27
Why do they want to ban Islamic scarfs?
AND if it is for identification purposes why not say, any face covering, including Islamic, Christian Nun scarfs etc that inhibit identification with passport photos etc but excluding KKK headware.
It is obvioulsy delibetately worded in a provocative wedge manner.
What do they do at Heathrow, the USA etc?
There are other ways in anycase – small little head enclosure, booth or whatever where the scarf can be quickly lifted back to aid ID by, of course, a female Passport officer. Or a line for people with religious headware that goes through an enclosure – women only etc.
Too easy.
Andrews is trying to stir up a fight with the Muslim community so the Govt can play the racism card of course. Andrews and Ruddock must have checked the souls in at Liberal party headquarters when signing up.
What on earth do you have in your wardrobe Kina? When was the last time you saw someone wearing a KKK hood in public?
The christian nun scarves that I have seen do not hide the face and neck.
The muslim head coverings in many cases do conceal the identity of the wearer.
And you never know what they are hiding under the rest of the outfit.
The female muslim costume is a favourite outfit of teenage male muslim terrorist suicide bombers.
Ruddock will retire after this election. Andrews is Ruddock-in-training.
Well if it is for security purposes what do other international airports do?
It still doesn’t excuse the way it is worded. It is directed at Muslims rather than a law against coverings that inhibit identification.
I am wondering if there shouldn’t be letters to the editor asking the Muslim community and other minority groups to avoid argument, confrontation and dispute with the government during the election campaign, unless of course they want to aid the Govt’s re-election.
All this talk of narrowing – I was a believer in it before I read Possum’s excellent entry on it.
But I reckon even believers in narrowing shouldn’t be talking about it yet. Surely the theory about narrowing is that, as the election approaches, the prospect of the alternative PM becoming PM becomes all too real for those voters most nervous about the unknown.
I would have thought that its effect – if there is any- would be expected after the official campaign begins, and probably at least a week into the campaign, once the reality and proximity of an election gains some traction.
Either way, I hope there’s no narrowing. Not that it matters for me – it’s unlikely my MP, Julie Bishop, would be ousted.
For the schoolies, uni students, anyone working or away on election day can Pre-Poll at AEC locations. It’s a Declaration vote placed in a sealed envelope. You need Electoral ID card or Driving licence or Passport.
Will update with details and locations when they are available
# 180 Nafe Says: October 14th, 2007 at 2:50 am
Oh really? Where did you read that? Piers Ackerman? Here’s me thinking that Australia never has had a muslim terrorist act. And I’m thinkin the Bali bomb wasn’t planted by some chick hiding behind a muslim outfit. Care to provide some proof of that statement of yours?
So what we’re really talking about is just you inventing stuff up in order to create a division that currently doesn’t exist, in order to capitalize on the division after it has been created.
No the favourite outfit for suicide bombers (at least for a while) was to dress up as Hassidic Jews and cross the border into Israel.
This is absolute crap. You can’t hide from metal detectors and sniffer dogs. Why just the airport? Why not everywhere? Crap.
“The female muslim costume is a favourite outfit of teenage male muslim terrorist suicide bombers.” Indeed it is but they can never decide on the right shoes to go with it.
Oh and when was the last (and that would also be the first) suicide bomber in Australia. More crap.
re Muslims, headscarves, airports, etc.
I agree with Howard on this one. No half measures against terrorism.
Indeed, if Howard is fair dinkum on protecting Australians from terror he should immediately announce a ban on any Australian departing flights to any airports to any airports that are lax enough to put innocent people at risk this way.
Of course, this means none of you is ever likely to see Europe again, much less the Middle East, but I can assure you that Japan is a lovely place, as is New Zealand. And PNG. (I assume you’re still allowed to go there.)
VoterBoy.
Happily ensconced in the UK.
Land of the Free, Home of the Headscarf (google Hilda Ogden/Coronation Street, and you’ll know what terror means)
From the Perth Telethon Blog.
http://blogs.news.com.au/perthnow/overthefence/index.php/perthnow/comments/telethon_as_it_happens/
If Tavener, Galaxy and Newspoll all show similar results can we say that the voters have given John Howard a triple bypass.
Bahahahahahaaa!
The Herald Sun has “NOVEMBER 24TH” in massive numbers on its home page – going to look a little silly if its called for another date!!!
Also, Matt Price contributes a short piece – hopefully a sign he is getting better.
And, surprise, surprise, Ackerman is silent on Howard’s discovery of symbolic reconciliation.
Another good poll for the ALP. Let’s hope the 42nd Parliament is one that will bring hope to us all. Just imagine…
By His Excellency’s Command
Kevin Rudd
Prime Minister
Peter Jensen is having a bit of an Each Way Bet.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/14/2058955.htm?section=justin
I haven’t seen Akerman ‘write’ a piece on the government or the Liberal Party for quite a while now. (Except to try to deny there were leadership tensions around the time of APEC) His obsession is trying to bring down the Opposition.
If Labor wins the election, what will people like him do? Rediscover the journalistic imperative of investigating and criticising the government of the day? That’ll be a change for porky Piers!
I can’t see him continuing in his present role of Opposition kicker if the Opposition becomes the Coalition.
Maybe he will just retire with a broken heart and spend time trying to console himself with cream buns and doughnuts.
Try reading this with a straight face:
“JULIA Gillard’s partner, hair products salesman Tim Mathieson, has a love child from a teen relationship and was involved in a drink-driving accident six years ago.”
OMG Guys! I never knew that! I’m definately voting Liberal now! Tony Abbot’s love child that wasn’t his was much funnier though…
On the discussion about schoolies, uni students etc. – Victorian elections are now always held at this time of year. Main impact for election-watchers is that it eliminates the traditional conservative advantage in postals and pre-polls (at other times of year these are disproportionately from the elderly) – so you can’t assume that seats that are knife-edge on the night will go to the Coalition as you usually can. The Greens also do well out of pre-polls and postals in November elections.
Good morning Poll Bludgers. I’ve been lurking here for yonks and do enjoy reading your posts and the info contained in them. Like most of you, I’m hoping for a big labor win. I have never voted for Howard having sussed out his bigoted far right ideology back in the years when he was Fraser’s Treasurer. Do you think I may be correct in thinking that Howard’s demise will be caused because the small ‘l’ libs are hell bent on getting their party back from the extreme right element?
Get your tv tuned to Sky News folks even if you mute the sound or check in on it by channel switching from another program. They have had a dual screen since at least 6am with one camera focused exclusively on the gates at the GG residence. They will leave the studio to go that camera as soon as the PM’s car rolls into view.
Hi Janice and welcome!
As for your theory on ’small l’ Liberals… only time will tell. Although I do even know plenty of Lib staffers for moderate Lib MPs are saying even they are considering voting Greens at this election, I suspect when push comes to shove a fair portion of them will head back to the Coalition.
We can only hope though. I suspect this election will be a amazing to watch, any way it goes down. Either, the demise of a PM everyone thought was a bound for certain victory a year ago, or the question of why the polls got it so wrong.
Possum’s right re the oldies demograph. It’s the only one not yet in a Labor majority, but 49 still represents a very big swing. And I’d say it’s pretty much down to Workchoices.
If you’ll pardon the anecdotal evidence of a cabbie (albeit an atypical one who listens mainly to Classic-FM, RN, and Jon Faine rather than Lawsie and co), I do a lot of work with folks to and from the retirement villages (pretty strong growth area in Warrnambool, BTW). Invariably they’re friendly, agreeable people who don’t touch on politics, probably for fear of offending. But there’s almost universal loathing and fear about Workchoices. I don’t think it can be all Labor-voting and unionist retirees, even though Warrnambool has a very interesting past with worker equity in Fletcher Jones.
As to Victoria, I think there is something in the Judith Brett Lib analysis. Victoria has a long tradition of Liberal patrician fairness. Howard has torn away that base. How it pans out is anyone’s guess, but it is not good for the Libs.
I suspect this is about to become the longest 6 weeks of our lives.
Possum Comitatus Says:
Howard has the internal polling, Howard made the reconciliation speech. Corrangamitte may fall, but I think Kooyong will definitely fall. I think Howard has identified this and thus the last minute attempt to lurch back to the center. The leafy suburbs of Melbourne are not populated by rednecks.
One other thought while Glen is not here to complain about hubris:
I remember from the 1972 election TV coverage on the ABC that in the final wrap-up, with credits etc., they played the “It’s Time’ theme. Went down a treat amongst us jubilant fans.
Any chance they might do that Greens’ “Been a long time Bennelong Prime Minister” song. It’s a beauty.
For you Don -(202),
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_zulGddP6o
enjoy
Call the Election #198 – Thanks for the welcome! I’m intrigued by Possum wondering what is going on in Victoria regarding the ‘odd’ data he’s getting. It appears to be coming from ’safe’ lib seats which makes me wonder if small ‘l’ liberals might be out to reclaim their party since all their other efforts have failed (The Not Happy John, campaign for instance.) A lot of them will possibly go to the greens or independents I feel. Joel Fitzgibbon is MP for this seat and it is very safe for Labor, therefore I don’t get much feed back around here as to how people feel about Howard. That is why I have been trawling the blogs and reading responses to rusted on right wing journos. I just hope voters don’t do a hard right turn when they get to the ballot box!
I think the battle for the soul of the Liberal Party will not happen till they are in Opposition. At the moment they have hitched their fortunes to Howard, even as he looks set to take them down with him. After an election defeat, the blood will flow as we see many Howard-loyalists leave, either thanks to the will of the voters, or voluntarily rather than face being in opposition.
So with many of the Howard inner-core gone, who would be left? He has relentlessly driven out most moderates, to make the Party in his own image. It will be only a small rump, out of power in every level of government except local. Bitter and looking for a brawl. (It is said the conservatives do not “do” opposition well).
If they had any sense they would see that the Centre is where voter sentiment is – and they would head back there, having learned a painful lesson from the Howard years.
But will that happen? I’m thinking the right wing extremists residual in the surly rump will ignore the warnings of the election and continue taking the Party to the outskirts. A future of possibly decades of irrelevance awaits the Party I suspect.
I suspect it will take the Libs a good 2 or 3 election thumpings before they recalibrate towards the centre.
Should the Coalition lose this year, after a long period of Howard being mythologised as a political genius, the Libs will interpret the result with disbelief, as an abberation. Abbott’s comments about voters ’sleepwalking’ are already a suggestion of this. The Libs will expect this abberation to be corrected at a likely double dissolution election. A pliant media will reinforce this message.
Rx #205 I agree that the moderates only hope of reclaiming their party is from opposition and I have come to the conclusion that that is what is happening out in the electorate. I also think that Howard knows where his biggest problem lies and why he’s acting like a terrified rabbit.
Sky News reports that the GG and his wife have left for church and that JH is expected to call in 90 minutes to 2 hours giving the GG time to return from church.
Mark Reilly on Weekend Sunrise (coming from Perth) likening Howard to to the poms winning the Rugby and using the underdog status shows how out of touch the MSM are.
Hmm….
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/14/2058977.htm?section=justin
news.com.au had the headline “10 am: Howard on his way to see GG” in its breaking news section. It didn’t link to anything though. I would imagine that the headline went up a little early perhaps. Since been taken down.
I now realise why Australian elections are held on a Saturday – so that all f us howard haters can celebrate and NOT have to take a day off work the next day – excepting those that need extended celebrations of course…
This article is so good I think I’ll re-read it every morning for the next six weeks
It is really interesting, if I am right just how blind the hacks of the right are. Piers rant this morning if it matters at all, would I think work for Rudd not against him. Just another personal attack. If a lefty had been writing about howard he would just have change the name rudd in the article to howard and the only difference would be that most Australians would already think all this about Howard I tried to post this on the tele site but it would not let me.
“Piers,you give yourself away in the first paragraph ‘Once a friend’ Give us a break– You always refered to him as a lightweight pixy on Insiders etc.
If he dined with you, it was only to use you. Have you just worked this out. Do you really think John Howard will waste a minute on you once he is out of office. Nor I guess you him.(though the invites would always have been one way) You are just a common type A one track hack. Thats why either side can use you well. They no there will never be any behaviour beyond type”.
I’ve been to schoolies as a volunteer five times. A lot of my friends will be there again this year. I mentioned it because there would be a number of interesting things about an election at that time. Not that are likely to affect results, but to make things interesting.
Victor Harbor has a median age of about 54, easily the oldest in SA. Except for a few days when over 15,000 schoolies are in town, possibly pushing that median down to 19.
Most schoolies are 18, hence voting for the first time. And a lot of them, having just had final exams, would have been too busy to vote beforehand.
Schoolies typically are up and about until the early hours of the morning, and asleep for much of the day. So I’m imagining the headache at the polling booths nearest the caravan parks as all the kids come in at 2-6pm, some a bit hung over, to vote, not sure if they are on the roll…
Aussieguru01 (203)
LOL. Nice way to start the day. Thanks for that.
Scotty (212)
Sorry your page was not found …
Cant link to it !
(We could not find the page you requested. This is often because older content has been removed from our site. In most cases you can still find the item via our archive service, News Store, where you can buy articles for a small fee.)
Yet again, this time on Sunday Sunrise, Mike Reilly says the ALP need to win 17 seats – where does this crap about 17 seats come from, they already have 60! How stupid/dumb is our media? In reality, they only really need to get to 75 (15 seats to be gained) to be the government. Obviously, 76 is better but 75 will do it.
Oh please let it not be November 24th.
My brother’s wedding
Who was it that commented here that they thought Katter would support Labor? I cant remember.
I read on a different Fairfax page that the poll was 1000 electors, and limited to Sydney and Melbourne. Is that right? If so it explains the higher than average results for Labor.
#218 Sorry to hear that Damien. Hope the wedding goes well though.
Nelson came across as subdued, even defeated, on Insiders.
Howard must have told his troops not to come across as cocky; instead they’re now coming across as defeated.
Well he hasn’t called it yet, BrissyRod, but it looks like the 24th.
I already have 2 friends lined up to provide SMS updates during the evening- still, it will be unpleasant to be distracted all evening on what promises to be enjoyable occasion.
Never mind.
Oakes and Dolly on Nine’s Sunday ..
Dolly is an air thief ..
Insiders just flashed a “Breaking News: PM about to call election” across the screen.
About time…
There’s something stunning about a former head of the Australian Medical Association lamenting about how many union officials are on the Labor front bench.
http://www.smh.com.au/multimedia/federalelection_parliament/index.html
why are the monthly nielsen TPP figures different to the published results?
Oakes is getting in to Dolly about Iraq, and the bullguano is thick.
“I don’t even know what LtGen Sanchez is doing now, but I have been there recently and I know ….” says Dolly.
Just dropped Matt for soccer training, on the way back drove along Bondi Rd, there are plenty of anti Turnbull posters on lamposts, dodgy pic of Turnbull & JHo with slash across some green saying Turnbull refuses to ratify Kyoto and orange saying Turnbull voted 23 times for workchoices hurtng working families.
It’s first time I’ve seen posters on lamposts in Wentworth.
Also re those young and old and in-betweens who are unable to get to vote on the day can vote beforehand, I made a post earlier re this topic
will update PrePoll info – gotta go and pick him up, will be tuned in to ABC in car.
As we all prepare to go in to battle, Andrew Landeryou seems to have caught the moment well with his latest post. You may not agree with his analysis, but the Henry V video is rivetting.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2007/10/game-on-liberal-campaign-site-gives.html
still waiting
patience, Blacklight, patience…..
Oil Nelson warned us on Insiders this morning that if we vote for Rudd we risk losing our homes. Barry Cassidy was very good in questioning him in fact.
Also, Matt Price has made me swear plenty of times reading his columns in the past but I do wish him a speedy recovery from his illness.
god i wish he would get on with it so i can watch the league test and the moto gp without having to continualy flick over to see if the silly old bugger has finaly done done decent thing.
main theme? It is about lack of trust in those clowns who want to rule us coast to coast?
Angry Downer denies giving up on poll:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22583179-12377,00.html
Shades of Latham’s “lay off my family” tantrum.
Not a good look.
Landeryou’s article is worth the read, if only for this quote:
“John Howard is going to go down like a dead dog on a freeway. That’s inevitable probably.”
The inevitable probability, eh?
Indeed ….
JWH is about to leave parliament house….
It’s almost here…..
howards just left to see the gg
Laurie Oaks on nine just said PM has left Parliament House and is on his way to the GG.,…get on SKY and see it live.
JWH has just gone into Yarralumla
Oh the anticipation……
Wasn’t watching the PMs car go through the gates simply riveting viewing.
He didn’t even moon the gathering crowd.Poor form on the entertainment front really.
Since he’s going to need stunts to get traction in the campaign, he may as well have started of with a doozy.
wow we are sad..
all this over a sunday drive
Downer has already given up
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22583179-29277,00.html
well Nicky Downer…
The rodent’s at government house now.
A few wheelies and burnouts wouldn’t have gone astray – going for that bogan vote.
Possum – sounds like something the Chaser boys would do
He has gone to sack the GG and install himself as “Supreme Ruler” for life.
If the Libs lose just wait for Downer’s lecture on how ungrateful we all are to a government they gave us everything, blah, blah, blah.
Kennet gave the same one…..
Didn’t change the result though.
JWH just left Yarralumla
Quivering with excitement………
I hope it’s Nov 24 or Dec 1. On Nov 17, I’ve got the second day of a two day cricket game. Nov 24 I have a one-dayer, as well as Dec 1.
In the words of a recent Big Brother contestant “Game on B*tch”.
Sorry, correction, JWH is still at Yarralumla
My bad. Sorry
I’ve got a bottle of tequila on 17 Nov. Time will tell.
I’m getting married on the 24th – if the Duck (Howard, that is) diddles me out of an election night party I’ll be spitting chips.
One of the criticisms of Rudd seems to be his small target, don’t scare the horses approach to getting elected by saying as few contentious things as possible.
They equate this with him being all fluff and no substance, but when playing against JH it has to be the only route you can take.
If and when Labor is elected, I believe they will enact the things they have talked about quietly in the background – real steps about global warming, all those social justice ideas that have been out in the cold for 11 years, a republic, etc etc.
But I realize you can’t talk about this from opposition, one wrong step with a big idea and next thing you know some minor aspect of it or some mis-phrased statement and the news cycle is on you and the Govt. is lining up to hammer you over your ‘inexperience’ or ‘recklessness’
# 242 – Possum, what I really love is how Sky News keeps replaying the car going through the gates. I’m waiting to see it in slow motion.
255
how about with matrix style special effects ?
Now JWH has left…..
When is the press conference?
Snakeboy – don’t encourage them!
What’s Rudd doing right now?
I’m sure he is preparing his election calling reply speech. I remember Latham’s, it was a shocker. I knew right there and then they were in for a hiding. I hope Rudd takes the initiative and goes straight to the front in dictating the agenda.
Go 07.
He most probably thought he would blind them all Possum,as we all know thats where the sun shines from.
Shiftaling, if the election’s held on the day of your wedding, every anniversary you and your partner have will have an extra significance–the day Howardism died.
Just make sure that there are a few TVs at the reception, then it’ll be both a reception and an election party!
GG to Howard….”It was nice knowing you, i..i..i mean bye”
I wonder whether he’s going to tell us the elections about trust again.
The trap is baited and tightly sprung. All we await now is for the rodent to activate it.
I suspect we’ll get either Nov24 or Dec1. Nov17 will clash with the 2nd test against Sri Lanka (in Hobart) and you know he wants to be seen at the cricket, not the least losing a whole bunch of Tasmanian votes who are pissed off at having to queue to vote before going to the game.
That also leaves more time for a potential interest rate rise.
aABC radio reports Howard’s back in his office. Announcement expected shortly after 12:00.
Nelson ( i think) was just on ABC News radio and was re-inforcing the old “High Rates under Labor mean you’ll lose your house”.
I was thinking looking at the TV this morning that it would have been fun if the ACT Cross Country Club had scheduled a race at Dunrossil Drive for this morning. (There’s an annual race, two laps, up and down the side of the Government House driveway – it’s a better course than it sounds. 4.2km, with Martin Dent’s course record being a bit under 12 minutes).
loandra @ 261
My fiance would kill me if I turned it into Don’t Party lol
He better get it done with by 12.30
That’s when the footy starts…
Gotta get your priorities right!
sorry I meant lomandra
oh dear the waiting is getting to me, how long before the press conference???? i dont believe it till he says it publically, he might have just called in for morning tea to fool us!
ABC reckons its a bit after 12.00
Well, well, an increasingly petulant member for Mayo. What a surprise. It’s probably too much to ask that he be turfed out in the upcoming poll. Or is it?
I would expect Labor needs a 2PP of near 60 in SA to have enough of a base to win Mayo. Then again, Downer has been clutching onto Howard’s coattails for so long, it’s possible he could go down with him, although I’d say its very unlikely.
Now the real pork barrelling starts. Will Australians resist the bunch of dollars Howards going to throw at them to get re-elected?
235 jasmine_Anadyr If thats the best they can do as a theme theyre in a lot of trouble.
hmmm
kemosabe speak with forked tongue
beware the talk in pubs and clubs
the only issue will be worstchoices mk1 and mk2
oh and the usual rascist dog whistles
Nostra @274, i shall gratefully accept any pork thrown my way and still vote for Rudd.
Scotty@273, we can only pray– what a gem that would be hearing Downer concede his seat, nearly as good as hearing the dear leaders concession speech– priceless.
Bob Brown got in before JWH on Sky News….
Howard press conference at midday
Press Conference at 12
Confirmed on Sky News
Labor need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority; they have 59 seats after Harry Quick resigned from the party in Tasmania where they now hold only two seats out of five.
So the Australian is correct.
It is startlingly clever of Rudd to make the slogan “Kevin 07″ sound synonymous with “Election 07″. The notion that Howard has met his match is an understatement of massive proportions.
THANK YOU WORKCHOICES!
# 281 – Hey Notstro, remember saying you’d be really worried if Labor was still polling 57 TPP by the end of July? God, you must be shi**ing yourself by now.
Nostrils, Labor will win 30-40 seats so 16 or 17 is irrelevant.
Wooohhhhhooo!!!!
I am the ghost of Mark Latham and
Kevin Rudd is just about to stuff up his response to John Howards calling of the election
Just like I did 3 years ago
The past will haunt you Kevin
WWWWWOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!
(Dave’s question I think)
Possibly “Overthrow the Government Gazette” (or the “Henny Penny Gazette”?) but what will be interesting is when Shananagan and his ilk reinvent themselves as pro Rudd when after a short period the sky doesn’t fall down.
Many await the GG’s Road to Damascus conversion, on top of a voter conversion which will unleash a tidal wave of vindication in Howard’s political nemesis, which I would express thus:
Apart from a caretaker role during the campaign, I take some comfort in the fact that by calling the election today Howard has no more decisions to make as Prime Minister. His last act in that capacity thank goodness, (or I’m probably off to New Zealand.)
The Ghost Of Mark Latham
Did you get permission from The Chaser to rip them off?
sssh
the old grey mare is about to speak
Election date confirmed as November 24. Paging William and Adam…..
I’ve been waiting eight months to type this on this website:
LET’S GET IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Excitable, aren’t I?
24 Nov
24th
24 November confirmed
There’s a great doco on Bears on National Geographic channel….in case anyone is interested.
The BIG finger to Howard – Why dont he just F-F-f- ffade away!
Leadership and experience is the theme.
According to the Prime Minister “I firmly believe that the country’s best years can lie ahead of us”
I agree -all the more reason to vote Labor
Heavens…he’s running on “Leadership” – Keating’s last slogan.
Good night nurse.
48
Crikey Whitey Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
I was thinking last night of asking Mum and Dad about their experience of the Menzies’ long years, and remembered that they are both dead, but how excited they were for Whitlam, It’s Time.
Let me tell you CW, it was one of the Highlights of my life. I was at the Hotham ALP party, and even though we didn’t win the seat, there were old ladies (I guess about as old as I am now) hugging everybody in tears of joy. After 1966, and the gloom then!
I was brought up in a catholic school, and all my teen tears was an outcast because I was a “commy”.
There’s not the same wild enthusiasm now as there was for Gough: how could there be? But there may be a more realistic sense of what can be achieved.. I hope so. “As the ancient Romans said,’festina lente’.
BTW, in those days Hotham had large chunks of what is now Goldstein, without Brighton, and bits of what is now Isaacs. If ever there was a seat that has been changed by successive redistributions, this is it! I doubt there is a single booth that was in the 1972 electorate. Surely a name change is called for. It’d save a lot of psephologic confusion.
rolls will close on 22.10.07
means we’ll have some time for enrollments
good luck kevvie & co
thank you William Possum & Adam for your contribution to maintain sanity in this mad world
Six weeks of pure hell coming.
Bash the unions as well.
breaking convention by using election announcement as political speech
low
Downer guaranteed as foreign minister? Isn’t that an incentive to not vote for the Coalition? Nice lame jibe at McClelland though.
Bahah!
JH: Who can distribute prosperity more fairly?
A: Rudd, obviously!
Howard just said that unemployment can be even lower, that is Rudd’s cue to attack him for WorkChoices Mark II.
Prorogation of Parliament: Tomorrow
Dissolution of House: Wednesday
Close of Rolls 22nd October.
Kevvie will be all rubbery and gristly after being roasted for 6 weeks!
It is going to be fun watching Gillard do another “Medicare Gold”!
FFS
(More of the latter methinks)
“Trade union officials”
Oh horror
“33 year low in unemployment”
Yeah, thanks to Hawke Keating, but Moi takes the credit.
Plans plans plans….blah blah blah “challenges of climate change”
“The things that divide us”
Like the Howard government.
“Balance in public life”
Oh no all governments would be Labor, unbalanced, trade union officials.
Are the AEC allowed to keep running adverts telling people to enrol?
What a load of crap, negativity, more mealy mouthed garbage from the Rodent!
It’s over to you Kev!
HAHAHHAHAH new election, same bullcrap interest rate claims.
poor petey he just said later in my next term
Nov 24.
Start ordering beer now.
Let’s see if you’re smiling in 6 weeks Nafe.
59
Possum Comitatus Says:
October 13th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
The oldies movement is interesting, its somewhere around a 9% swing to the ALP.
possum at least some of this swing could be expained in demographic terms , rather than as a change in sentiment. many people moving into the “öldies” demographic are Whitlamesque baby boomers, while those moving off the twig are 1930’s babies, who were inspired by Menzies. Of course I can imagine a few of these being less than enthused by Howard!
Im sorry Rodent – I have no idea what you stand for anymore – aside from winning at all costs.
You’re in fact the greatest flip-flopper Ive ever seen in Oz politics.
Bahah! And Howard’s the biggest responsibility dodger of all time! Weee! This stuff is hilarious.
So people have one week to enrol or update their details? Time to get the word out.
John “No one told me” Howardtalking about Rudd always blaming members of his staff…
He should be doing stand-up.
Is he going to do a Jeff Fenech and tell us ” i luvs ya all “
289 The Ghost Of Mark Latham. Any chance of some intelligent input.
Well, At least Howard will now have to stop spending our dough on those futile “Government” Workchoices and Green “I can do that” Advertisments.
I’m certainly gonna do something for the environment on 24th November: Vote to rid the Australian political environment of that toxic spill known as the Coalition Government. And it looks like about 60% of the polulation are going to be doing likewise.
Ta ta Johnnie.
So if the best years lie ahead of the country, why the urgent need after last election to give employers the unilateral “choices” to cut wages, conditions and job security? Worker-hating business toady.
Someone (possibly Nafe or Glen, ESTj is I suspect is too sophisticated) will soon claim that the polls were wrong in the Irish election and therefore they could be wrong here too.
This is an Irish poll several weeks before the 2007 Irish elections.http://www.tnsmrbi.ie/cms/uploads/8-9th_may_2007.pdf
It correctly picks that A’Hearns FF/PD government will be defeated and the new government would be formed by whichever major party the Greens sold their souls to. The commentary also includes a brief history of the swings that occurred in the Irish polls in the 6 months before the election – at least in Australia the polls have been rock solid all year. So let’s not have any comparisons to Ireland.
OMG, Howard has taken responsibility for the 5 rate rises. That’s the first time, every rate rise he has blamed someone else.
Sorry
http://www.tnsmrbi.ie/cms/uploads/8-9th_may_2007.pdf
It’s quite stimulating to realise from the polls that Australia’s ‘liberals’ have rallied in their thousands to join us in reclaiming our Nation. The coming landslide will be equally symbolic for both sides. Good luck Australia.
I always hear Rudd saying “The buck stops with me”. More rodent lies. And not one journalist pulls him up on them.
Who can disribute the properity more fairly?
The Greens!
This is the worst post-election press conference by Howard I’ve heard -he’s spouting cliches, employing tired scare tactics. trying to use the interest rates line again despite interest rates having gone up and somehow his rhetoric just seems empty and hollow
And where he did he get that line about Rudd not wanting Swan as his Treasurer and that he would dump McClelland as his foreign minister?
To begin with, I think this argument is as weak as Labor’s pathetic “a vote for Howard is a vote for Costello” line that it took to the last two election and will probably have a similar effect on voters -i.e. none.
Secondly I think it’s common knowledge that Howard didn’t want Costello as his Deputy or his Treasurer when he became Prime Minister but kept him on as a way of easing leadership tensions. So it’s the pot calling the kettle black in that regard. And ANYONE would be better than Clowner as Foreign Minister so that destroys the second part of his argument as well
I still believe that Howard has a strong chance of winning this election but he really needs to lift his game if he wants to do so. His press conference today was just abysmal -even from an objective point of view -and, if it is an indication of his performance to come in the coming weeks, the government is in trouble
At the start of the last election Howard made his “who do you trust on… interest rates, interest rates, interest rates, interest rates, interest rates…” and so on.
It was a clear message backed up with supporting themes (”L” plate latham). It was simple, the govt stayed on message the entire campain and it worked.
This time round there is just a rabble of ideas – as though gleamed fom a focus group on speed.
I’m looking forward to Rudd’s reply. I’ve felt he has been holding back – that the ALP has a few “choice” targets and a lot an ammunition to fire.
Do others think the ALP will switch to offense now – or will they wait out a couple of more weeks on the high silent ground?
Strange …I think I have heard this crap before.
Yeah, I got totally bored and switched off.
And Im a polltragic.
Reading the telepathic entrails of Howards speech, I reckon he’s going to ban traditional law everywhere in the country on the grounds of human rights, and use the foreign affairs power to give it constitutional teeth.
It will be an attempt to play well to the Hanson set because the “everyone would be treated the same” line, while he tries to play to the leafy safe government seats with the “increasing the human rights standards” line.
I’ll flow into the Ratty The Uniter spiel.
Not a good speech, I thought. I’ll admit to bias against him, but…
- voice breaking occasionally – quote of ‘love me or loathe me’ (easy to answer that one) – making a big deal of international engagement (like Iraq) – stability of leadership (huh?) – lots of antagonism towards journalists’ questions – some weak attacks on McLelland and Swan – …
I’m surprised he has made such a big deal of his speech to the Sydney Institute. I’m surprised he’s not banging on about economic matters. But I suppose that would open him up to criticism on interest rates and WorkChoices.
Hmmm…. I will be interested in what the consensus of how good an effort this speech was. I did not think it was very good.
Old, washed up, past it, irrelevant, a relic of past elections: sums up John Howard in 2007.
Crikey Gippslander – I think I was there too. I know I was handing out at the polling booths but can’t actually remember the party. That’s the 70’s for you.
Grace Grace is a WOMAN!!! Hahahahahah!!!! Nice note to finish on John!
Good luck Australia. Go Kev, Go Labor.
the msm are apack of pussycats
not one challenge to his lies and the stab at qld state politics is gutter stuff
low
Howard was looking uncomfortable with the interview, and then suddendly it ended.
As for running on Leadership, wasn’t that what Keating ran on in 96?
It was a pritty weak speech if you ask me
I have no doubt Rudd will have predicted the messy pottage of todays themes (”this election is about er, a whole bunch of stuff), and will sound bite them on the arse – but in a positive way, “tired old ideas v fresh approach”.
Then we’ll see some big policy announcements to throw Howard on the reply for a day or so, reducing his momentum. Otherwise, I think he might look Prime Minsiterial and reserved, stay positive, avoid attacks, and let Howard do his frantic attention gathering routine.
fact is, Howard has to make the running, and so will continue to annoy the punters.
And he more Howard starts to remind punters of the bar scene from star wars that is ‘the state opposition leaders’, the more secure the landslide.
Kev’s interview is on sometime between 1 and 2.
I thought the prepared speech was OK, but his answers to some of the questions were just silly. I don’t think this stuff is going to work, he needs to actually release some policies.
He looked very nervous,
alot of coughing, he didnt look comfortable
How deaf is he….pardon….pardon…pardon.
The greatest thing about announcing the election is that many of the hacks currently in Canberra have just lost their jobs permanently
So which state govenor is currently out of the country, thus forcing the rolls to stay open until Friday? I assumed the rolls were going to close on Monday or Tuesday.
That’s good that the rolls are open all week.
Bob Brown says Greens won’t block Labor’s IR laws.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22583267-29277,00.html
Albert #334 – I imagine that the ALP is sitting on their best war chest for some time and have been expecting a long campaign. Hence the K-RUD playing me-tooism for the last couple of weeks. I expect that the ALP will put the odd heavy hit or two in over the next few days and see how they go down and see if they can bring the Libs out of their corner. Then their will be an eerie quite over week two.
The real campaign will start at the end of week two in time for weekend polling. The it will be game on.
It seems pretty obvious that the Libs don’t have a strategy yet. It will be interesting to see if they can conjure one in the next two weeks.
I reckon there is already an add being made about the stumble and big cough before the promise to look after hospitals.
I suspect Howard kept the rolls open by not having the writs issued until later in the week so that he didn’t have to face a day of “why are you disenfranchising people?”. That would have ruined his message.
I’ve switch off!
Interesting that a show about dung beetles (ABC NSW) followed the Howard media conference…
I love this quote:
“The right leadership is a group of men and women who will govern for all Australians and who will not be beholden to a narrow section of the Australian community”
Exclusive brethren
Big Business
Fossil fuel industry
Murdoch
GW Bush (a narrow section of the US community).
Good afternoon tragics and welcome to the campaign.
I think we’re all a bit too worked up, not to say one-sided, to be objective analysts of how the punters will see this speech. No doubt there’ll be a snap opinion poll soon. This will be the big test for The Narrowing theory. Will the voters suddenly say “OMG Labor is a trade union based party! We never knew that!”? Well, maybe. We’ll soon find out.
The RIGHT leadership. Is he planning to hand over to Hawke?
pancho
i vish the fargin barstitch would koff
forever
The speech certainly indicated the pattern. In response, Labor must go negative.
“The right leadership is a group of men and women who will govern for all Australians and who will not be beholden to a narrow section of the Australian communityâ€
Gobsmakcing stuff! How could even the lying rodent have said that with a straight face??
JWH trotted out the same ole same ole stuff in his speech, except for 2 distinctions–
The first was acknowledgement that some Australians are not getting their share of the benefit of a booming economy-
Of course he avoided answering questions asking him to name those struggling sectors [wouldn't be people being affected by WORKCHOICES would it ?]…should be interesting what he does to try and woo back those wet liberals and Howard battlers..income tax deductions perhaps ?
The second was a veiled hair brained wild swing to the left on Indigenous Affairs which is no wedge and will win no votes.
His “many plans about Australia’s future” rhetoric is way too late, he is already stuck with the old and tired and backward image: nothing he does will turn that around.
Leadership ? Ha, people will not want to vote in a PM who is retiring with an unknown and unpopular Peter Costello to follow- I hope he does a cf our leadership to theirs thing because it will give Rudd a dog whistle…Who is going to be PM: Costello is as unknown and suspect as a PM as Rudd in terms of experience as a PM.
Meantime, the bloody election date puts me in Melbourne at my brothers 50th instead of hosting a party in Rudd’s electorate- Damn it. Thats ok, I can get a cab to Higgins at 3am and blow a trumpet up and down Costello land and get arrested for disturbing the peace and drinking too much…works for me.
Let the Games begin and on November @3 may the people give Howard the thumbs down
255
Shiftaling Says:
October 14th, 2007 at 11:12 am
I’m getting married on the 24th – if the Duck (Howard, that is) diddles me out of an election night party I’ll be spitting chips.
Gee, that isn”t very complimentary to your partner! I would have thoght a bit of duck shooting would add spice to the chips.
November 24
Pretty crap performance from Howard. Usual slimey disingenuous rubbish.
At least the Coalition will have to start paying for their ads now.
Will Rudd announce policy aat the press conference, steal the thunder?
358
Fagin Says:
October 14th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Interesting that a show about dung beetles (ABC NSW) followed the Howard media conference…
Fagin, its asham the show wasnt a doc about rodents!!!
Bluebottle blowing a trumpet at 3am 24 November on the corner of Toorak Rd and Chapel St
‘Ill like to see that’
‘I can’t find my pencil, now where did I leave my pencil’
Howard is going to win the election in a landslide, you wait and see!!!
My prediction is coalition to have 120 seats to Labors 30!!!
So far this year Howard’s desperate and ineffective thrashing around for a wedge issue has only firmed up the poll where they now stand.
If we went back to the start of the year was there anything else Howard could have done (other than hand overt to Costello).
He could of:
1) Eaten humbe pie and Ratified Koyto and phased withdrawal from Iraq.
2) Eat more pie and admitted a mistake and overturned work choicies.
3) Ran what looked like a sain govt.
He’s done none of these things, now issues like Iraq, human rights nd the enviroment have the DWs against him, nochoices has Kath and Kim against him.
To top it off we’ve had 10 months of insane govt which everyone is sick off.
The truth is, he would have never do 1 or 2 – ironically it is on his most egregious mistakes that he adopts a principled stand.
I thought he looked old and stressed – puffing and snorting like an old bull.
I’m overseas on the 24th, so i’ll miss out on the party. Damn!!!
Liz,
As long as you are back by March the party will still be going!
I hope it keeps going.
Well now we await the “Narrowing”. I’d expect the coalition to start with a little bit of momentum but it could fade quite quickly. The election dynamic could well favour ALP.
- the ALP can now start their attack without fear of a govt funded counter attack or a some wedge legislation forced through parliment.
- the tax payer funded ads should now be turned off
- Both Howard and Rudd look tired but I expect Rudd to hold up better – when Rudd has got in the spot light (recall APEC) it has worked well for him.
The head says a 54/46 2PP and a comfortable majority. The heart says – maintain the fight it ain’t over.
Oh the joy of it all. To know that I only have to endure Howard for another 6 weeks and then he will be consigned to the dustbin and out of my life for ever. I am delirious.
Well Poll tragics – we’re on.
Thank God for that.
Howard accuses Rudd of shifting responsibility? Now that IS rich!
AWB – Can’t recall.
WMD – Intelligence was false.
C.Overboard – Wasn’t told.
Interest rate rises – Blame the states.
The buck has never stopped with John Howard. What a hypocrite!
By the way – did anyone hear Alexander earlier revealing the shocking news that if Labour wins there will be nothing but labor govt’s across the board?
Thank God somebody realised in time for the election, as obviously 60% of people have been not aware of this subtlety when being polled and have been giving the wrong answer.
oh, and did you know that nearly all the Labour leaders are union Hacks???
Bet you didn’t or we wouldn’t have had these poll results for the past 11 months.
If only people would listen…
I thought The Rodent looked like a Boiling Frog.
I was listening to ABC Radio in the hope finally of the announcement. In between crosses to Canberra to see what was happening they interviewed a producer of a play called “Dead Horse”.
Somehow it appeared to be impeccable timing and programming.
El Rodente has ruled for four thousand three hundred days (moe ~ 1%), and cetibus paribus, which of course things never are, he has about fourty nights free board and lodging at our expense as King Kirribilli Coconut, before we do what Australians are very good at doing, which is to tell people who are more than a bit up themselves, like KK Coconut, to drop off.
——————————————————–
A domestic scene in a comfortably appointed “sleeper cell”. Dissident sits transfixed before PC.
E.C. (animated): Honey, Schmuckens has called it for November 24! Guess I’ll only be “strapped to the beast” for another fourty days.
Minister for War: That’s nice, dear. What will you become obsessed with after that, then?
*barely noticably, dissident slumps, exhales slowly*
Sample size is 979, this was from the hard copy version of the Sun Herald.
Howard is looking terrible. I wouldn’t be surprised if he retires hurt at some stage in the election campaign. Hands the show to Costello and goes for a sympathy vote. It’s a wee straw to clutch, but anything is possible with this little man.
Kevin’s press conference 2.15 AEST, watching Sky waiting David Speers talking with the Ghostly PRuddock, defending his leader, he’s been stopped mid-sentence to go live to Bris for Our Kevin’s press conference, he says ‘there is too much focus on opinion polls’ -don’t you just grrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
gotta go Kevin’s about to start – go Kevin
I think KRudd is offering New Leadership.
I think, I’m not sure….
Kevin is wedging JHo’s experience JHo’s negative smear/fear campaign, JHo’s got away with this in past campaigns, you know what the Australian people can see through that.
JHo has never shown accontability for:-
AWB -yea
children overboard – yea
” … Howard’s plan for the future is to win the election, retire and hand over to Peter Costello …” Rudd.
That’s neat and telling and I think young and old might buy it.
But the contrast between the two contenders! If Rudd can keep this up, it will cut through.
Oops, have a bias problem in my biased knickers … sorry …
PRuddock rated Kevin scripted, whilst he sneekily glances at his notes.
Gippslander @ 319
“possum at least some of this swing could be expained in demographic terms , rather than as a change in sentiment. many people moving into the “öldies†demographic are Whitlamesque baby boomers, while those moving off the twig are 1930’s babies, who were inspired by Menzies. Of course I can imagine a few of these being less than enthused by Howard!”
My parents are in their mid-eighties. They’ll be voting Labor (they usually do, unless they vote Greens), but they say that many of their friends are switching from Lib to Labor because finally, there is a decent alternative to Howard. They wanted to vote Labor last time, but couldn’t stomach Latham. I think many people of their generation felt that way about him.
I missed Rudd’s response. Is it online anywhere?
Lomandra,
Mr Rudd’s speech is here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/14/2059114.htm?section=justin
Regards,
Barry
Oops – that one only has the first 2minutes.
Here’s an audio version that appears to be the full speech.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/audio/2007/10/14/2059130.htm
Much obliged, Barry!