As you’re all no doubt aware, the Prime Minister has just held a press conference announcing the election will be held on November 24. Didn’t hear the whole thing, but after all the justified outrage about the government’s changes to electoral laws, I am surprised to learn that the legal formalities will be conducted on a timetable that will leave the rolls open until October 22.
UPDATE: Those who have had time to think about this point out that the writs will be issued on Wednesday, so the deadline for new enrolments is 8pm that evening. The October 22 date invoked by the Prime Minister is the closing date for amendment to existing enrolments.
UPDATE 2: An AEC press release announces: “If you’re not on the electoral roll and you’re entitled to enrol, you must fill in an enrolment form immediately and return it to an AEC office by 8pm, Wednesday 17 October. If you’re already on the roll but still need to update your address details, to ensure your vote you must complete an enrolment form and return it to an AEC office by 8pm Tuesday 23 October”.
726 Comments
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WorkChoices has nothing to do with getting jobs. That is determined by sustained economic growth.
WorkChoices has reduced the cost of jobs, which means people are being paid less.
i saw an article some weeks ago that suggested that the Democrats in America concentrate too much on logic, and not enough on emotion. That’s why they lost the last 2 presidential elections, and by concentrating on anti war feeling they won the mid terms.
There’s an emotional reaction to WChoice.. ride that feeling.. call it SerfChoices every chance you get.
People are worried about Climate Change.. show pictures of dried up creek beds, raging floods, a Nuclear power stations.. don’t mention statistics.
If they’re worried about leadership, show K07 with crowds of young folk, then a quick shot of JWH on his morning walk..etc, etc
Purists like me will grumble, but it’s not “ILLogical”…its the best way to win an election, & get a logical Govt.
On an emotional level, my sense is that people ARE getting out the Baseball bats for JWH.
Yes lets have the Unions run Australia and lets have one party be in at all levels of Government and lets have a bloke who has less than 1 year of leadership experience and been in Parliament for less than 10 years as PM and lets have Julia Gillard as Deputy Prime Minister and lets have Wayne Swan as Treasurer wow what a bang up job they’ll do if Labor wins….
I’m after a little advise from my comrads:
I vote in SA, out of the serious contenders in the senate should i put FF last or the Libs. last? I don’t want to see FF become a force but I also don’t want the Libs. to retain senate control. FF apears marginally better on some issues and a whole lot worse on others. Still do I really want them with control in the senate if they’ll be simply campaigning for an Iranian style theocracy? I’m leaning towards putting the Libs. marginally higher, any advise?
I hope you are right Snakey… but people are fickle and tend to i think in polls lash out governments to get something in return at that moment to blame someone or something for their situation…
And the scare tactics will in a way work… and when it comes to voting some people will not have it their heart to change and of course you have the rusted on lib voters who will come back.. .
Labor as i said will win but not by such a large margin.. Although on saying that some of the State Labor efforts in recent years have seen quite significant victories so perhaps i could be wrong..
Another thing although i don’t think is Government have been economic managers… and i do not believe the unemployment rates.. These two things may sway a few votes…
Wow, it seems you’ve decided to vote for Labor, good work Glen!
I think it’s actually the opposite. Despite being flogged in the polls on a comparative basis, Howard’s approval ratings are decent for a leader who’s been in for eleven years. While a lot of us here find him distasteful, I don’t think he is regarded too badly in the wider world. However, the electorate wants change and while John is familiar and somewhat adequate, it’s out with the old and in with the new. And I think that’s the scary thing for the Coalition – it ISN’T emotional. Emotions are easy to play with and manipulate, but this is a cold and hard feeling of “it’s time”.
(disclaimer: I could be talking out of my arse)
Glen, what experience did Costello have as Treasurer before becoming it in 1996? We know what experience Howard had (lets not go there).
there is a big difference between being conservative and being radically
right wing….. John Howard is in the second category as is the govt he leads… I would class Malcolm Fraser as in the first category . Australia had what I would call the post war consensus which has been largely dismantled… the GST and ” work choices” are perfect examples of this
There are now no small l liberals such as Mr Chaney or Ian Mcphee who have any influence now with the Howard Government. Witness NSW
where the exteme right controls the party machine
Shows on you are right workchoices reduces demand.. through cuts to wages and is bad for the economy ….it is 1931 economics all over again.
Cuts supply costs and it will help create more jobs but to the overall economy it only helps one sector and that is big business as they have the funds to advertise and get more business..
#304: Interesting predicament, Molatov. I think there’s more chance of the Libs getting a third seat than FF getting one at all, so I’d put the Libs lower down.
A couple of comments/questions re the Taverner poll: first, Possum, I’m not sure I follow what you meant at comment #100 – can you clarify?
Second, darn at #219 is right – it looks like the Sunday Age mixed things up – Sun-Heraldlink provided by Eddie-C at #238 (and my hard copy of the paper) shows Labor getting 49% of over-55s.
Third, Taverner shows a 59-41 2pp result from a respectable sample of 979 across NSW & Victoria only. You can only conclude ‘business as usual’ – the result is 0.2% higher for Labor than the average of every Nielsen and Newspoll poll taken between April and September. Extrapolate the state relativities from six months of Nielsen & Newspoll and the Taverner poll equates to a fraction less than 57% for Labor on a national basis.
Glen are you a Lawyer we could really use you in the Liberal party because we only have 70% Lawyers?
We could really use your help in drafting Workchoices Mkii.
Put another way, the only subtext that Rudd needs to get across is that an ALP victory means that Ruddock, the Monk, Dolly, the Rodent etc etc won’t be on the evening news anymore. “New Leadership” does it quite neatly.
Agreed Trev but compared to Ralph Willis anybody including someone with little experience could have done a better job…how on earth could anybody think Swan would be a better Treasurer than Costello.
“Why would workchoices be toxic in Cairns Adam has not workchoices assisted more people in getting a job?”
Glen there is no evidence that WorkChoices has created any jobs, the increase in jobs has been very similar for the past 14 years.
Everyone who has looked at wages has found that hospitality workers have lost wages and conditions, this will bite in Cairns, it will also bite in Longman, Wide Bay, Fairfax and Fisher.
Enough to lose Longman and give the others a fright.
Blackburn @ 295
That is interesting about your ageing mum’s ideal outcome. Did she say why?
Scorpio, thanks I have seen the videos now.
Glen, still no comment on the “representativeness” of a Liberal Cabinet full of lawyers? Then again, who better to run an economy than party full of a profession that charges high fees yet produces no saleable product?
Thinking about the whole 70% union-official smear, isn’t it undermined by Rudd’s essentially non-union background? It might get traction if Howard could convince people that Rudd is a union puppet, but as long as Rudd comes across as being in control that seems unlikely. I would have said that Rudd is more in danger of being seen as a control-freak than as anyone’s puppet.
Glen,
I just hope that after the election is over that you have as much energy dedicated towards reforming the Libs as you do in spreading Lib dogma on this site. When the election is over the Libs will have to admit Work Choices was a disaster and dump all the Neo Cons who have swung the Party to the hard right. Are you up to the challenge?
Snake
Re Medicienes Sans Frontiers, they were the only ones who asked that people stop donating after the tsunami as they had donations to fulfil their obligations there, whilst the others kept asking and a lot remained unspent, and some still does?
I liked their no nonsense approach.
Medicienes Sans Frontiers. An excellent organisation and well worth supporting.
Howard was just on ten news. And the negative ads from the Libs have already started: “learner plates” on the economy, and anti-business. They don’t even have fresh ideas for their propaganda; it’s just a rehash of their attack ads on Latham.
Costello has been a dud as treasurer, under his watch Foreign Debt has gone from 150 Billion in 1996 to 540 billion and rising… Yep great treasurer indeed..
Whilst we sell the farm to the chinese and than get back our resources with chinese made goods.. Great treasurer this Costello, Glen
Sean Says:
October 14th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
#304: Interesting predicament, Molatov. I think there’s more chance of the Libs getting a third seat than FF getting one at all, so I’d put the Libs lower down.
But doesn’t that only make a difference if the Libs., FF and another candidate are left in the running? Yet I’ll be putting Gre., Dems., Lab. and Mr X higher. Probably only the CEC and ON will be lower on my vote. So my predicament will only come up if its only the Libs and FF fighting for the last spot. Which would i rather have “represent” me?
Thank God this match has finally kicked off – I feel like we’ve been forced to sit through hours of dire pre-game entertainment before a highly anticipated match.
I think JWH boxed himself into a corner re the date, like he was waiting and hoping for the numbers to turn. But as many here have pointed out previously, waiting for too long brings it own risks. Consequently, Howard really had no choice but to call the election today – going back to Parliament this week would’ve been a bad look.
So it’s doubly satisfying that he was obliged to call it on a day with a poll suggesting WORSENING numbers (so much for the “narrowing”), and rumour has it that tomorrow’s Galaxy will be more of the same (and Newspoll on Tuesday also).
My brother has a theory of political inertia – that things (such as polls) will basically continue in the same vein until something acts upon them. This is where Howard and the Libs are now – hoping and waiting for a miracle to save them.
But Glen, I’ve just in one swoop destroyed this argument of lack of experience. And thats all the ALP has to do and another thing the ALP won’t have control of the senate therefore they won’t have total control like the Coalition has had the last 3 years.
This election has been determined by one issue a long time ago – Workchoices and their abuse of trust by implementing it. Trust – once it is gone you are a goner in the short term.
Paul K the answer is no….
Why should i try and move my party to the left when the Labor Party have in you scenario moved their Party to the right to win?
And i dont consider my views a part of a dogma any more than your views are a dogma of Labors…
Workchoices is not a disaster…one change would have rendered the Unions attack useless but we didnt make that change until 1 year before an election…and i dont consider it a disaster when Rudd has virtually copied workchoices…
And another thing Costello economics also involves selling of public owned assets such as commonwealth buildings and then renting them back from the new owners via leases that are two to three times times the cost of borrowing to finance the buildings..
Costello economics….Great treasurer… this man…
Alas Glen. Then you must prepare for a very long time in opposition. If you lose the election and you can’t even admit that Work Choices was a disaster then the Libs are finished.
He used to sit opposite John Dawkins in parliament, that’s about it.
This election will determine that. The first rule of politics is to get elected, if WorkChoices contributes to Howard’s downfall, then it will be considered nothing but a disaster.
#324 Mol: In all likelihood, the SA senate will be: 3 ALP, 2 LP, 1 Mr X. I don’t think it could come down to a battle between a 3rd LP and a FF.
A big part of Work Choices is not just the reduced wages and loss of conditions, it is the loss of dignity that it inflicts on people.
Work Choices gives all power to the mployer and no rights to the employee, it brings fear back into the workplace.
I worked in industries where there were no rights, I signed an employment contract that agreed to certain conditions, but 3 weeks into this, the major one, time off was laughed aside with “I didn’t get days off when I started in this industry, why should you get them”.
Aside from the fact it was an agreement that I got time off for one and the way it was sprung on me. The company knew I had just taken out a home loan and thought they had me by the b*lls. I was fortunate that there were other opportunities and got other work.
But for a lot of others they do not have the same opportunities and a lot of the changes to work conditions happen after they commence work.
Glen: Right on.
This election is going to put Labor right back where it should be – in the wilderness.
Bring on Nov 24!
Very true. I have no idea how it helps improve workplace efficiency and productivity when workers get paid less, and have worse conditions. That would make them less loyal and motivated to their work.
Arbie Jay
I also agree on MSF. I saw the same message when I tried to donate money after the tsunami. After reading that they were firstly honest enough to say they had enough money, and secondly that they desperately needed funds for refugees in Darfur, I donated to the latter cause. Where incidentally, refugees are now being restricted from Australia due to their being too black, sorry I mean unable to integrate.
I haven’t mentioned this before (and for the life of me I cant explain why)- but it certainly has major relevance to the anti-union campaign the Coalition is running.
Back in June when the ALP TPP was 58% (i.e the same as it is now within MoE), in OzTrack33 there’s an issue in the regression modeling called “The Role of Unions”.That issue is actually well on the ALP side of the positioning chart (meaning they own it in a beneficial way), it was a high confidence issue and its influence as a vote driver was actually slightly higher than “Industrial Relations”, “Education” and “Do What’s Right” on the ALP side, and drove the vote more than than “Low interest rates” the “Economy”, “Defence and Security” and “Strong Team” did for the Coalition.
In fact, the only two Coalition issues which had a higher coefficient than “The role of unions” were “Lower taxes” by a very very very small amount(better described as being equal) and “National Interests”.
This anti-union spiel wont play.The fact that it has to be used is more about firewalling the small business vote than it is about winning the election.
I wished I’d pocked this up earlier.
Canberra Boy (312) Thanks for clearing that up
Howard ran the “70% of Labor candidates are former union officials” line about 3 times during his press conference. I honestly thought he would’ve concentrated more on what he is going to DO. Rather than run a negative attack first up. In fact, if he wanted to win today, he could’ve announced a brand new policy that Rudd would’ve had to immediatley respond to in his first election speech.
Reading Glen’s dedicated defence of the indefensible, one thing I have to admire about the Liberals under Howard is that they really stick to their lie. I guess that is what they call the “virtue” of perseverance. Perhaps that would be a good slogan this time around:
“keep the lie alive, vote Liberal”
Of course, perseverance is only a good thing when you are sticking to a winning strategy. Otherwise it becomes inability to adapt. Sort of a dinosaur thing… This election might be aptly titled “A Lie Too Far”.
#286 – no arguments that Labor has absolutely no chance of winning Mallee, but I think it’s a seat which has considerable potential to go independent if one with sufficient profile emerges – there are a lot of angry waterless irrigators in that part of the world. It was reported a couple of weeks back that local irrigators’ spokesman Danny Lee was going to run, but I haven’t heard anything since.
Menzies,
I thought you’d died and gone to heaven. Or are you in the other place?
In case you hadn’t noticed the current version of the Liberal Party is nothing like the one you founded and the Cold War is over. How the whiskey in heaven?
CB at 312
I used the Taverner poll to exptrapolate the demographic swings over NSW and Victoria using the 2006 census data and that was the result.Its actually just Sydney and Melbourne that were surveyed, but to find out those city specific results, you’ll have to read about it at Crikey on Tuesday where I’ll have Taverner, Galaxy and Newspoll broken down together
Ruawake at 316 – don’t forget McPherson with the hospitality jobs!
Wow, he just did the “70% union officials” line again live on Ten News!
This is going to get terribly boring for 6 weeks with both Howard and Glen saying this constantly.
Socrates #258 [What percentage of the current members of Cabinet are lawyers? Quite a few I suspect]
Over 60% of the cabinet are lawyers
The Aboriginal speaker got it right the other day when he described the PM as “the same old snake with a new skin”.
The PM has the nature of a snake, sneaky and devious.
People can see through this tatic of trying to remake the PM, it will be a political disaster, because he is still the same Howard on the inside, there is no sign of genuine remorse or repentance from him.
hahahahhah Howard on Ten News has now renaimed WorkChoices to “pro small business rules”.
Still waiting for the Liberal Party to actually surprise me. So far, I’ve heard nothing different from what I’ve been hearing all year. Yet I’m meant to change my mind now because… ?
Nothing wrong with Lawyers on either side Dario, doesn’t matter if you are doing well or badly you can never have enough lawyers!!!!!!!
*smiles innocently* and that is my completely unbiased view AS A LAWYER.
Watch out for these terrible unionists.. all part of a crowd who gave you all holidays, sick leave, safer working conditions and a minimum wage but watch out you may catch a disease….
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