As you’re all no doubt aware, the Prime Minister has just held a press conference announcing the election will be held on November 24. Didn’t hear the whole thing, but after all the justified outrage about the government’s changes to electoral laws, I am surprised to learn that the legal formalities will be conducted on a timetable that will leave the rolls open until October 22.
UPDATE: Those who have had time to think about this point out that the writs will be issued on Wednesday, so the deadline for new enrolments is 8pm that evening. The October 22 date invoked by the Prime Minister is the closing date for amendment to existing enrolments.
UPDATE 2: An AEC press release announces: “If you’re not on the electoral roll and you’re entitled to enrol, you must fill in an enrolment form immediately and return it to an AEC office by 8pm, Wednesday 17 October. If you’re already on the roll but still need to update your address details, to ensure your vote you must complete an enrolment form and return it to an AEC office by 8pm Tuesday 23 October”.
726 Comments
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Ruwake – yes, they’re still the government until the GG installs a replacement. They have all their usual powers, and could invoke them without legal challenge and certainly would in an ‘emergency’, though by convention they would do nothing controversial without formal opposition approval.
They are only hindered by two things. One, the Public Service is entering hibernation mode and so might respond more slowly or fractiously. Two, anything requiring the GG’s assent (eg new regulations, assenting to any leftover but passed bills, declaring war on Sudan) would I suspect be resisted, without bipartisan approval.
I like the way Adam has set his maps up very work!
I suspect after many months in here we have a rough idea which seats will fall and which seats may fall also which seats might go ‘up yours’ to the polls.
Thanks Graeme.
I missed Rudd’s speech but heard most of Howard’s. He said pretty much what I expected, but did struggle to say who was missing out on the economic benefits (apart from aborigines). I suspect people who think they’re hard do by financially at the moment might resent Howard’s sudden move to help aborigines out of their plight.
Howard seemed to hint that there’d be some policy on petrol prices and some tax relief to come. No surprise there, but I’d be surprised if he can offer anything substantial on petrol with spending billions.
It’s pretty obvious from the polls that young people are turning off Howard in droves. This is very significant, because most people tend to vote the same way most of their lives. There’s potential for a new Labor/Green voting generation. There was nothing in Howard’s speech that convinced me that he knows how to change the youth vote around. His response on WorkChoices is always to blather on about the need to repeal the unfair dismissal laws. That’s not the issue for young people – the issue is minimum wages and conditions, and protection against exploitation.
While I do understand the small business rationale for getting rid of the unfair dismissal laws, it’s hard to sell to the general public a policy which says we can create jobs by making it easier to sack people.
I’ve just done a big moderation cleanout, so apologies to those whose comments were held up.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
I agree with Adam for leaving Menzies blank while colouring in Casey, Goldstein and Kooyong.
If the 2002 state poll had been on Federal boundaries the ALP would have picked up Casey, its a seat that has more in common with Aston and La Trobe with a great many families impacted by five interest rate rises, its a social Conservative area which may warm to Kevin Rudd’s style.
Casey Is to the Liberals what Lindsay is to the ALP, meaning it can be lost but only when one is on the nose.
Kooyong and Goldstein should never fall but Howard isn’t popular in these parts and the ALP have good candidates in these seats and Kevin Rudd’s promise to have budget surplus will go down nicely.
In the case of Kooyong the local MP is a dud.
So why wont Menzies fall, while I don’t go much on Kevin Andrews his seat suits the Howard Government’s type of Conservative more than the older Golden heartland seats.
“About a 1000 Albert” – thanks Possum.
I guess that make a MOE of around 5% for each demographic. Enough to conclude the young-uns don’t like howard (golly I’m shocked). And the blighters are media savvy as well – so the old-school media blitz on workchoices is counter-productive.
I wonder what Howard will do to reach the young folk – maybe attend press conferences with an acoustic guitar and answer tricky question with bob dylan ballads.
I just saw on speech transcripts the comments about Labor’s front bench beign 70% union officials. Not too many doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers or tradespeople. Hardly a representative sample of Australians if true. It reflects the reality of the left-wing political establishment
But it occurred to me that a similar question might be asked of the right wing political establishment. What percentage of the current members of Cabinet are lawyers? Quite a few I suspect. How many of the rest are farmers, (the industry that produces just 3% of our GDP)? So is a group of lawyers and farmers any more representative than union officials? No.
Albert,
Wot, “The Times they are A’Changin”.
Have you guys seen this new political party senator online?
http://www.senatoronline.com.au/
Basically if one of their candidates gets elected anyone in the country can log in and vote on how their senators should vote in parliament.
Unusual, no? I hope they are extremely strict in forcing people to only vote once.
We had a discussion about Menzies here yesterday. The seat is further out than Kooyong or Goldstein, and it’s mainly new money suburbs rather than old money suburbs. The DW vote is heavily in the old money suburbs. Menzies is full of second-generation Greek and Italian businesspeople who have done well, built big houses in Templestowe, and sent their kids to private schools. Some are Labor out of family tradition but increasingly they are Liberal. They don’t like unions and do like WorkChoices. I don’t think climate change, Iraq or Dr Haneef will shift many votes here. I think Menzies is much less at risk than Kooyong or Goldstein (and I don’t expect Labor to win either of them). The above also applies to Aston.
Once somebody finds a scan of the proclamation please post it. I like collecting such documents.
The one from last election for those interested: http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/4109/0055cc0.jpg
When do nominations close?
#263: 1 November
#257 et al…
The subtlety being missed here is that that of the 18-29 age group, is that over 40% of this group were too young to vote on 2004. So the shift is not only in those being re-polled, but there is perhaps also a generational change under way in this vote.
Its not so much that they are changing their allegiances, but that the next wave of young-uns have a different agenda that J-HO is unable to tap.
Thanks James, When do we get to know senate preferences?
Adam,
i think you’ve mixed up Mallee and McEwan.
@257 Albert
Bob Dylan ballads?
There is a good Lady Sovereign track Johnny “love me or loathe me” Howard might want to use.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3ILUic7aN0
Snakeboy, there was a phone conversation:
Brian Loughnane: Get him out of it!
SMH: Who, Howard?
BL: Don’t be smart.
SMH: But they’re a team.
BL: I’m not going to f**king argue. Just remember who butter’s your f**king bread paper boy, and get him out of it!
SMH: Okay. Sorry. (Hangs up then mumbles to himself ‘Jeez, what a crank.’)
Listening to the shrilling Helen Coonan. We are all going to need ear plugs by the end of 6 weeks.
Again, we see the “L” plate ads again – sums up the Libs for the past 12 months – nothing new ideas just a regurgitating of the old.
“Economy will be crashed into a wall” – this is the smear campaign that Rudd was talking about. 70% former union officials and so on and so on.
Helen Coonan, I’ll give you an insight, you bought in Workchoices without a mandate, why SHOULD we trust you again?
The Liberals are totally devoid of a future plan.
Thanks Adam for putting Leichardt at risk. For the last month or so there has been plenty of Labor advertising here in Cairns but I haven’t seem a single Lib ad except for the official Government propaganda. Brand recognition in this electorate is all important and the retirement of Warren Entsch opens up the field tremendously. Tourism workers have suffered greatly under AWA’s (people work odd hours here), I don’t like the chances for the Liberal candidate.
Barney. Sh*t so I did, thanks.
#266: well the group voting tickets have to be lodged within 48 hours after the close of nominations. So a bit after that i imagine.
Warren Entsch has been a pretty good local member over the years. He has a lot of respect among key aboriginal constituencies. This is far from being a gimme for the coalition.
GG,
perhaps –
A hard rain is gonna fall
Everything is Broken
Farewell
Going, Going, Gone
Honey, Just Allow Me One More Chance
endless material to make his last tour a good one
Unfortunately Trevor scare tactics work… I think myself agree it is pathetic, but many Australians are dills and fall for such stuff… Look at the last few federal election campaigns… Interest rates scare, terrorist scare… scare followed by scare .. and why because it takes people away from the real issues.. Hides the everyday problems with negative rubbish.
On the topic of mandates, Howard told Parliament in April 1998:
Quoted by By Alan Ramsey, Sydney Morning Herald, 18 August 2004
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/17/1092508474312.html
Hmmmm, it would have been nice to have been told before the 2004 election about WorkChoices.
Adam,
your maps make up a pleasing mosaic ( if that gets past the J*W filter).
On a minor point, I think you habe Mallee and McEwen around the wrong way in your map. If only Mallee were in serious trouble!
#275 – “Hurricane”? Should get the climate change vote.
I think its highly hypocritical for the ALP to say the Liberals are going to mount a scare campaign when the ALP have conducted one on Workchoices and Nuclear power….more negative rubbish from Labor…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mpyFanUWKA
Wilson Tuckey at his best.
I have plan to scheme, lie and cheat my way back in to office.
Glen, do you have any ideas I that can use in my plan?
# 276 – You’re right Marky…but this time around, there’s not much left to scare people with. In fact, the things most people are reaLLlly scared of, like Workchoices (sic), have been visited on the hapless electorate by The Rodent himself.
He is the quintessential boiling frog.
Maybe I’m not one of Howard’s capitalist employers elite, but, I don’t see what the “70% are ex-unionists” campaign is meant to be about… So, does this mean we’re meant to fear a party whose candidates might fight for a raise in workers pay packets and improve workplace safety? Is that really all the Liberals have left in their gun-locker?
Today’s ALP is just as hopelessly corrupted by economic rationalism as the Liberals are these days. The governments of Hawke and Keating were further to the Right on the economy than Fraser’s, and pretty much on par with Howard’s.
At best, the Liberals are being laughed at for fearing reds under the beds: they might convince some of the rusted on lunar Right but few else. At worst, it may remind people of WorkChoices and suggest there’s an outside off chance the ALP might actually replace it with something less horrible for working people.
# 280 – Glen, scare campaigns are about “what will happen if…?”. The attack on Workchoices (sic) has been about “Sh*t!!! Look what has happened!” That’s not a scare campaign, it’s a reality check.
Hello Snake
Your $2.75 is looking good and I reckon your $4.75 on Maxine is still in with a very good chance, as the date gets closer and more people realise the Howard government is gone this will greatly increase Maxines chances.
I have fixed Mallee-McEwen. If I had to put money on a seat the Coalition will not lose it would be Mallee.
I agree that Entsch is a very big loss for the Libs, and that Leichhardt is at serious risk despite its large majority. Cairns is no longer a blue-collar town, but it is full of low-paid service and tourism workers, and WorkChoices will be toxic for the Libs there as it is in all the regional cities.
JWH copy Rudd he’s doing such a ‘bang up job’…
# 285 – Hey Arbie! What a good memory you have! Although…my $3K went on Rudd at $2.55 not $2.75. Still…enough to roll around in for a few days before donating the lot to MSF.
#280: Hypocrisy. It is an interesting concept. One man’s hypocrisy is another man’s ‘crisis management’. It is amazing how far up the pulpit we can go when personally we have nothing to lose. Given the highly artificial nature of the latest fashion in media moshpit, we should be a little more forgiving of our political leaders from both sides. I think the value of the blogoshpere is in deciphering the MSM-mangement tactics of our leaders and presenting the ‘real’ message behind the artifice for those who care.
Socrates Says:
October 14th, 2007 at 2:03 pm
Sorry to persist, but again, can anyone post a link to where JH’s press conference can be seen on the net?
It’s on the ABC, Ninemsn, News Ltd Websites.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/14/2059084.htm
Rudd’s here.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/
An interesting article on the Australian election. Kevin Rudd the Peter Perfect of Australian politics?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7016666.stm
Snake, MSF?
Why would workchoices be toxic in Cairns Adam has not workchoices assisted more people in getting a job?
Longman will fall before Leichhardt if that happens at all.
I think as the campaign goes on people will unfortunately come back to Howard, unless he makes a massive glitch… Rudd though will win but not with as bigger margin as the polls suggest.
Hawke as popular as he was did not get the same results as Rudd is experiencing in the Polls in 1983…
and then their was a diabolical economy with high unemployment and inflation…
I would actually put Higgins more at risk than either Goldstein or Kooyong. Not that I think the ALP will win any of them as the Liberal base is too strong.
My basis for this is that the western end of Higgins – Prahran etc will build up bigger and bigger ALP 2pp votes – based on Green rather than ALP primary votes. This, however is balanced by the gentrification and greater tendency to vote Liberal in Ashburton, Carnegie etc.
The problem for the ALP winning any of these seats is that there is no substantial ALP base, and the areas that tended more toward the ALP are gentrifying (North Kew etc.) making them more and more upper middle class.
Menzies is very similar to Aston, though there could still be a very big swing in Aston. There is a big Asian community in Menzies that may turn agisnt Kevin Andrews. I could see 4 – 5% swings in Menzies, Kooyong, Goldstein, Higgins but 7 -8% in Aston would not surprise.
For what it is worth, my aging mother (more than rusted onto the Liberal Party, she is welded and bolted!!) told me her ideal outcome last night. The Libs win but John Howard loses Bennelong!
Their is an argument that says that people who get their first job have never seen what the conditions where originally like and that argument is a good one..
Because you get those dills who also say that the unions have never done anything for the country…
Nonetheless workchoices will be a big issue…
Especially with families who have children attending university and working in hospitaliy and are getting paid less than the were before or are working at hours which affect their studing options…
# 292 – Medecins Sans Frontieres, Arbie. Get on ‘em. It’s a growing industry.
# 294 – Marky, what issue has enough traction in the electorate for The Ropdent to use to scare people back to him? Seriously…what’s there?
L- Plate Rudd? Hasn’t worked so far.
thank God the time has come im sick of living in nation that the tories have made change the government change the country lets set things right get rid of this mob
“Why would workchoices be toxic in Cairns” – it is more likely that interest rates will have a greater effect (around Cairns at least) than Workchoices (although that won’t help). There has been a significant decrease in affordability in recent years around Cairns (anecdotal – but would challenge naysayers to prove me wrong from ABS).
On Leichhardt, I have spent a lot of time in FNQ for work, holiday, and family reasons. Yep, there are a lot of casuals working in tourism, but a massive proportion are European backpackers, who don’t vote anyway.
Warren Entsch has built up a huge personal vote, but as Adam says, Cairns is not the working classtown it used to be – very middle class and suburban actually.
IMHO, well to the edge of the loss spectrum.
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