As you’re all no doubt aware, the Prime Minister has just held a press conference announcing the election will be held on November 24. Didn’t hear the whole thing, but after all the justified outrage about the government’s changes to electoral laws, I am surprised to learn that the legal formalities will be conducted on a timetable that will leave the rolls open until October 22.
UPDATE: Those who have had time to think about this point out that the writs will be issued on Wednesday, so the deadline for new enrolments is 8pm that evening. The October 22 date invoked by the Prime Minister is the closing date for amendment to existing enrolments.
UPDATE 2: An AEC press release announces: “If you’re not on the electoral roll and you’re entitled to enrol, you must fill in an enrolment form immediately and return it to an AEC office by 8pm, Wednesday 17 October. If you’re already on the roll but still need to update your address details, to ensure your vote you must complete an enrolment form and return it to an AEC office by 8pm Tuesday 23 October”.
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Just saw my first cawflute
Memo to Possum
You said that the Galaxy tomorrow is not good for the Libs in your blog.
Have you heard something? Any numbers?
Anyone else heard something?
Adam, thanks for your threat map.
So Dunkely and Hughes are possible Labor gains? Interesting.
Problem with the anti-union stuff is that the Libs all grew up in a fairly narrow gene-pool, and seem to think the word “union” is self-evidently bad to the aveage punter.
When it isnt. As such, very little content work has been put in to the bogey. Its quite ineffective.
Moreover, huge numbers of non-members rely on union negotiated awards – are are, at worst, indifferent to unions, and often vaguely positive. Id wager more than half the population are either members, or rely on unions indirectly for their bargaining.
Thus, the association of many is “improved wages and conditions”.
Scary stuff!!
Yep Shows on and a GST for small business was?
Why doesn’t Rudd use the “70% lawyers” line on the Coalition?
Are lawyers more popular and respected than unionists?
Adam at 208
Thanks. I think I’ll laminate it and get out a permanent marker to tick them off as Antony calls them on the 24th. Lovely.
Howard abused his control of the Senate by inflicting a vicious IR policy upon Australian workers. That will be his legacy and, with luck and a fair wind, his epitaph.
Possum
I think the same could be said for any electorate that has tourism as one of the major industries.
WOW I just saw my first Liberal party attack advert. The Liberals don’t seem to have much money, so surely they are putting out these attack ads to make an impression early on.
If these adverts don’t work for them, they are scrooged.
If we don’t hear about Galaxy on the news tonight I think we can assume it shows no significant movement from the last poll. They’d crow from the rooftops should it show a significant movement back to the ALP.
Shows On: What was it about/like?
Correction to 361
They’d crow from the rooftops should it show a significant movement back to the Coalition.
Good luck to all party staffers on here! I’m glad my job’s not riding on this election.
Jasmine, I don’t neccesarily have a problem with lawyers, but if you asked the person on the street where they ranked them I think you wouldn;t like the answer
Adam,
Thanks for the map. Certainly shows the difficulty for the Libs. How do you defend so many seats?
Well, I think the key development to day was this: Howard hasnt got a simple clear campaign pitch this time.
If he did, he would have used it today. ‘Something about experience, steady hand, silly economic car metaphor, yada yada’ just wont cut through.
As such, barring some unforeseen event of massive proprotions, it looks like more “im all over the place starting fights and putting out fires” from Howard for the duration. Much like all of 07.
And that makes Nov 24 electoral checkout time for Team Rodent.
It said the economy is the most important thing (debatable, I think the economy is a means to an end, not an end in itself)
it said Rudd and Swann are L platers with no experience dealing with the economy.
It had a photo of Gillard who it accused of being an anti-business unionist.
it had a photo of Howard and Costello with a label “Pro Growth”
Weak as piss really.
Just in case anyone is interested?
.
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Hillary Clinton has a 21-point lead over fellow Democrat Barack Obama in New Hampshire, one of the first states to vote in the nominating process for the 2008 U.S. presidential election, a poll showed on Sunday.
Individual Lawyers like individual journalists, politicians, judges or anyone else with power can be: Good, OK or Bad but never nuetral.
Mrs ruawake (non political) said “why can’t they just tell us what their policies are instead of this childish stuff”?
This is going to be fascinating. Clearly, Rudd and Labor have comprehensively won the faux campaign. All should be set for them now: “the issues” are Labor issues; the imagery of “the future”, “new leadership” and being “in touch” is a Labor-friendly composite.
On the other hand, the coalition’s messages and strategies have backfired, compounding their disadvantages and nullifiying their strengths.
It will be interesting to see if the campaign proper moves votes or not. I have a feeling that not much movement is likely. What can the government try that they have not already tried? What will work for them? Leadership? No – it’s a taboo issue, really for the Liberals. Their record? No – this is the past when the focus is on the future. Security? No – already worn out and discredited. The labor market? No, it’s a complete fiasco now….Stealing public hospitals? Not likely…
This is going to be a fascinating campaign.
RE Howard playing the race card IE all equal before the law.
OR BASHING BLACKS
Evans Gareth Gareth said “Howards never happy except when he is bashing blacks”
At that Howard and his backers on this site smirked to themselves “Not bashing blacks But BASHING BOUNGS” ____SORRY TO HAVE TO USE THAT TERM BUT THATS HOW THEY THINK____
Howard on the weekends when he worked as a kid at his fathers service station used to see the black kids from the the outskirts of Sydney as it was then. Happy go Lucky laughing and jumping about as they headed down to fish and swim at the long hole, as the creek was then known, and he hated them. Because they seemed alive… Because they enjoyed each others company Because they seemed human.
Janet taught him to turn these feelings into a reason to govern and to poison the well.
Finally! It’s on like Donkey Kong…as the youth of today say.
The work Christmas Party is on the night of the 24th….will make things interesting. Does mean that if Howard pulls a miracle turnaround there will be unlimited booze to drown my sorrows in
Does anyone know if tomorrow’s Galaxy shows a bad picture for the Coalition overall (TPP/Primary) as well as a bad result ‘in the marginals’?
This is quite astonishing. Most polls had her behind 1 month ago.
Possum’s spys have suggested that Galaxy isn’t good for the government. Whether that means same old, same old, or a swing to Labor we will find out late tonight.
Gary Bruce,
Your earlier comment is entirely correct. A vote for Labor will have the same effect as a vote for Liberal.
Unless of course the Labor party has adopted the Trotskyite “entryism’ tactic – once you get into the citadel you then show your true spots.
If that’s what they really believe and they do get in stand by for a replay of the Whitlam government.
Trotskyite “entryism’ tactic – once you get into the citadel you then show your true spots.
eg Workchoices?
How much is being the top of the list worth (ie straight donkey vote)? Does it differ considerably according to the seats demographics?
Here’s a full listing of the primary former occupations of the cabinet for those who are interested:
Howard – Lawyer
Vaile – Real Estate Agent
Costello – Lawyer
Downer – Economist, Diplomat
Nelson – Doctor, Union Leader
Minchin – Lawyer
Abbott – Journalist
Ruddock – Lawyer
Turnbull – Lawyer
Coonan – Lawyer
Truss – Farmer
Andrews – Lawyer
Bishop – Lawyer
Brough – Army Officer, Businessman
Macfarlane – Farmer
Hockey – Lawyer
McGauran – Lawyer
Ellison – Lawyer
Derek @ 317
re: my aging Mum’s best case election scenario:
1. He has been there long enough – she referred to John Howard as a “silly old coot” – she is 78.
2. She likes Peter Costello – “everybody likes Peter Costello” (she moves in very limited circles!)
3. She likes Maxine McKew – “Shes smart, she will do a good job – she was the best person on the ABC, a much better interviewer than that silly Kerry O’Brien”
4. She doesn’t like Kevin Rudd – “He is mealy mouthed, I just don’t like him”
5. On jwh and aborginal reconciliation – her eyes rolled back in her head “hasn’t he had a long time to do something about it and why now?”
It was quite an interesting (and to me, surprising) viewpoint.
The Liberals look have already started with tier typical conservative negative fear advertising campaign. Which I think will be counterproductive on the whole given that Labor will be putting the emphasis on freshness, change, youthful vitality.
Which appeals more: dirt and fear – or freshness and change?
There are 50 million Chinese moving from the countryside each year. This is providing a huge and very cheap labour pool. Combine this with places like Shanghai’s unfettered capitalism and you have a cheap and, if you live there, nasty environment. Work Choices lets businesses begin to compete with this. If we do seek to compete on a like basis then we are merely engaging in a “race to the bottom”.
Edward,
Governments are more than just a collection of policies. Two governments can have similar policies and still be completely different. You’ll learn this in time.
Dont worry ESJ, “mimicry as eternal ideological victory” is the phase after denial, so you’re good making progress!
I remember thinking the same in 96, with Howard loving up medicare and keeping his head down.
Then of course …. everything changed.
AM
It’s a great line about snakes, but I fear it’s unfair on snakes. In my experience with snakes, I have found them to be fair and reasonable. They defend their territory and their young by trying to kill you, which is fair enough. No, I have to disagree. John Howard is not a snake. Snakes are honourable creatures.
Ah Lefty E
I dont think anyone who has followed JWH would disagree that he has always supported Labor market deregulation etc.
Having said that – the ACTU did succesfully demonise it and the Liberals did not anticipate and react to a scare campaign against it – hence there will be a price to be paid.
The main failing of the government was not to make the appearance of fairness front and centre. The ACTU did manage to some extent to make union privilege equate with fairness and the government did nowhere enough to deny them that argument.
If Labor thinks they can get in and make everyday “medicare gold” day they are sadly mistaken – they will get a backlash to rival Whitlam in 1975.
379 Dario
Wrong – Hockey and Minchin should be down as party hacks. Turnbull had done a number of things and McGauran should be down as landed gentry.
Dario,
thanks for the facts, which were as I suspected. A narrow lot.
jasmine_Anadyr I also don’t hate lawyers, my best friend is one. But the point is they are not repreesntative of the majority of adult Australians – they are one profession. What would we say if cabinet was 60% doctors (well at least hospitals would work) or engineers (hmmm, our infrastructure would be a lot better)? I won’t even try to imagine a Liberal cabinet of 60% teachers. Whereas at least union officials are supposed to be representative of a larger group.
Um, what union privilege? If workers want to be represented by a union in their workplace then they can be. If workers don’t want to be represented in a workplace, then they don’t have to be. That is a fundamental democratic right.
I’ve heard constant union bashing by the government over the last 10 years, but they have never explained why a worker can’t choose to let a union represent them in the workplace.
By bashing unions so hard, the government is telling voters that they don’t think they deserve penalty rates, sick pay, personal leave etc. Explaining why workers don’t deserve those things is a rather difficult task.
ESJ I think the mistake that every political party makes from time to time is they fail to realise “the other lot have moved on”. In my opinion the liberal party is still acting as if they are fighting Latham or Crean or Beazley. Rudd is clearly none of these, and is clearly much more of a astute political animal than the previous 3 labor leaders.
When you are at the zenith of your power as Howard was after winning in 2004, was exactly the time he should have been looking to change over to Costello. If you don’t change with the times and move on, the political inevitability will sure as hell bite you on the posterior. Labor have moved on, the liberals haven’t.
Dario @ #379
I thought Mark Vaile was a Stock and Station Agent aka Used Cow Salesman.
Including asking Keating to make him a Labor senator when Richo retired.
Glen @303
Electing Federal labour is an important step in getting rid of the NSW Labour government. They must go, but will NSW Libs get their act together? I doubt it, but hope springs eternal in an ageing breast. Same logic as to why Malcolm is safe, people want a competitive democracy
not lengthy periods of one party domination that obviously becomes a case of complacency and corruption. Mal is viewed as someone who a) is not a conservative christian (beazley, rudd, howard, costello etc etc) and b) maybe has a slightly broader view of society and life than Howard and the rump to which he has reduced the Libs.
Howard spoke with real honesty once that I recall, when he said he had no sympathy for Chikarovski because she did not do what it takes. What he also conveyed was ‘I will demean myself for power and THAT is my philosophy’. He believed he had the secret. Well, he didn’t, he had the same delusion as all the others. The Party did not have the guts to do what it should have done, dump him, they mistakenly allowed him to continue the fantasy that power resides in the individual. They should have gone the knife, not just for now but to encourage young liberal thinking Australians back to the liberal cause. He is the antithesis of what secular, young, entrepreneurial Australians want to be. This could be a difficult mistake to rectify unless the punters clear out some of the deadwood for you in a hurry (which they might).
I do hope the Libs get cleaned out good and proper and that Rudd gets rolled after one and a half terms and a new era of progressive younger social and economic thinkers comes through on both sides. I’m not optimistic, mainly because you lot have to find some new TALENT. The left is actually better off than it has been for a while, union and non-union background, and much of it not yet visible. As someone who thinks the bigger question is how do we re-balance the essential need for contest between equals in democracy you should be thinking about the talent problem as first order of business I reckon. Downer, Abbott, Nelson, Costello, Hawke and co. are not going to cut it, whether you lose this time or next. The risk for everyone is another 12-15 years of one party government.
But for now, you lot only have Himself to blame. If Howard understood Australia at all he would never have done what he did (Workchoices), or at least had the sense to be honest about why he was doing it (eliminate penalty rates and other conditions associated with a 5-day a week commercial society). He could have engineered greater labour market flexibility without manifest unfairness. But he actually believes his own crap about unions. Collectivization is not a productive negative, as any economist will tell you there is no basis for efficient contract without relatively equal bargaining power. Workchoices was not just culturally dumb, it is economically inefficient overall in the longer run. Anyone with any bargaining power will of course stay well clear of AWAs and are on common law contracts. Saving further money on the least able to bargain in a few service sectors (its not productivity either, tell me how getting rid of penalty rates gets a waiter to serve more plates) when the share of wages in overall wealth is already at a 30 year low is high risk stuff. Many in the Party understood that, but JWH knew best (or so he thought).
If someone had told me that the Australian left would end up in charge of a centralised industrial relations system EVER, I would have laughed. If there was one thing the Liberal party would never let happen that would be it. Wouldn’t it? So, has JWH been successful? You bet, he’s achieved what the unions, the ALP, the Fabians and everyone else never had a snowballs chance in hell of getting done. Nice work John. Thinking you and yours will rule for ever and a day, now that really is hubris!
Nicely broken down Dario.
One might argue that given that JWH feels we should achieve balance, having 70% of the Coalition shadow front bench negates the 70% unionists on the other side!
I take it you are referring to Nelson’s role as President of the AMA as evidence for him being a Unionist. Whilst the AMA is a very good professional association and protector of collective workers (and a powerful emploer’s organisation) I don’t think the ACTU is going to let them on the books any time soon.
I’d like to see the ALP pick up on the theme of how may lawyers there are on the Libs front bench. I’m a bit conflicted about the profession since i have a lawyer friend i care about very much, but i loath their profession as one of the most parasitic and useless of modern times. And a lot of people i know who have come into contact with them do as well.
Lawyers to me are a bit like nuclear weapons. Wastefully expensive to manufacture and maintain, ridiculously toxic in use, and the only real justification for their existence is that some other bugger might use one against you.
If they were cheaper then they would find it a lot easier to justify their existence i think. At least most Union official have actually been in the real world at some point in their lives.
SerfChoices is going to be the killer for Howard. Whichever way you look at it it has actually taken choices away from people. And what really gets people is when they see their kids shafted by an employer and can do little or nothing to help because of these laws.
Rattus hrattus is an ex-pollie walking. And i think, really, he knows it.
Remember Everyone:
VOTE EARLY, VOTE OFTEN
#353: Hughes would be a possible Labor gain, but certainly not Dunkley. What makes you think it possible, Adam?
The Term CHICKENHAWK is thrown around a lot in US politics.(would not work here as only labour potential members have ever had military service, so the forces of the RIECH LEADERSHIP must hold there breath)
Indeed CHICKENHAWK here in Australia it has a different meaning. A CHICKENHAWK here is a GLEN etc. Someone who does not advocate polices because his life experience is an example of them proving it true IE hard work diffedence study. BUT someone whose parents have with the aide of Labour ITS TIME polices has had there way smoothed to comfortville and so therefore can happly say the SUDANESE should get on with or get out.
Exactly, even for popular P.M.s like Hawke and Howard, eventually time runs out. Have a look at Hawke’s poll figures in 1990 – 1991, it was 50 / 35, L+NP / Labor on the primary vote. It seems Australians reached a point when they were pretty much sick of Hawke.
Typical Laurie Oakes…a clear cut Labor voter…
Why haven’t we heard from the National Party or the Minor Parties?
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