After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent. A small amount of solace might be taken from a 3 per cent increase in the Prime Minister’s remarkably resilient approval rating, now up to 47 per cent, and a rise in dissatisfaction with Kevin Rudd from 20 per cent to 24 per cent. However, both Howard and Rudd are up 1 per cent on preferred prime minister, with Kevin Rudd leading 48 per cent to 39 per cent.
Plaudits to James J for somehow finding the graphic before The Australian put its coverage online.
477 Comments
I don’t know where Morgan gets this soft vote scenario. It looks that every other poll has the base for Labor, concreted at 54-55% tpp. There are a few % that seem to fluctuate, hence the 57% and tonights 56%.
Here is a piece of the Liberal Party’s website:
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/bosses.jpg
It purports to show “union bosses” in red. Among those shown in red is Julia Gillard. I ask Edward and any other Liberal hereabouts – of which union was Gillard a “boss”, and when? In which union has Gillard ever held an elected or appointed position? I’m waiting.
Really this Government has descended into a rabble, clearly they have no vision for Australia’s future.
Their election campaing allready has them looking so so desperate.
I would be asking for a refund from their election advisors.
Gee. Does it matter? As I left base camp this morning, heard the Libs preparing to slag Rudd, with some absurd slogan. What of Howard Hucksters, Had Enough.
In the words of Bill Lawry “its all happening!”
Hey Adam,
as an croweater im interested on ur take/predictions on SA seats of Sturt and Boothby? other three of wakefield, kingston and makin should be done and dusted
And their $500,000 donation to Telethon looks really mean spirited against the $1.1 Million donated by the State Govt.
I’ll bet Howard was told about the $100,000 donation and decided on upping to to $500,000 but not seeing the extra Million Dollar Donation.
Not a good sign
In some way I hope that QLD fail to come to the ALP party. NSW and VIC may deliver an ALP govt alone.
This may then provide some balance in national policy.
Recall in Keatings last term the need to keep QLD onside dominated political thinking. It would healthy to change the tune.
I would usually think figures would tighten as per usual but Howards just looking so desperate (i.e. his reconciliation speech…11 years too late) that I think cynicism in Libs will increase enough to ensure these figures hold to election day. he cant buy himself out anymore cos only increases this cynicism.
Surely he had to agree with Rudd in advance to make this donation.
Or does the caretaker period only come into effect Midday tomorrow, once the House of Reps is dissolved?
A good result for the ALP again, but I’m still not feeling it. I’m keeping my prediction of a 5-7 seat majority for the Coalition.
It was a pre-recorded presentation I believe (never saw it, am asking for a video capture), probably recorded prior to an election announcement.
Tremendous result for the ALP. Simple as that.
No sign of a narrowing, no sign that Howard’s about face on reconciliation has had any effect. Just the exact same story we’ve had for 9 months – the Government is facing annihilation and humiliation. Absolutely nothing new to report.
Still, why don’t we discuss the fabled narrowing. OK so it’s a bit early to say there will be no narrowing, especially since this poll was likely conducted before the election date was announced. However, we maybe can factor in that rumours were rife that the election date would be announced this weekend.
Here’s a point I’d like to hear some opinions on re the narrowing. Does the fact that we have endured a long phoney war leading up to this weekend mean that the actual announcing of the election date won’t actually have any effect? That is, the theory behind the narrowing is that the ’shock’ of knowing that we really will have to vote out the government, that it really could go, will result in voters turning back to the government. Surely people have already come to such a realisation long ago given the length of the phoney war.
Todd: your guess is as good as mine. The most recent polls in the Advertiser showed the Libs ahead in both, though not by much. It’s going to be a long six weeks.
The polls are in fact narrowing: they are narrowing in on a Labor lead of 56-44.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/polls.shtml
OFF TOPIC:
This article on Kim Beazley Snr is rather depressing:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22583450-11949,00.html
He had the courage to stay in the ALP and fight communists. Why weren’t there more like him, rather than those that formed the DLP and consigned Labor to decades in opposition?
For the record,
The three newspolls prior to calling the 2004 election
Newspoll 30 Jul – 1 Aug 2004 50 50
News poll 13-15 August 2004 46 54
Newspoll 27-29 August 2004 48 52
Three Newspoll prior to the 2007 election
17-Sep-07 55 55
01-Oct-07 56 44
14-Oct-07 56 44
If you assume that Howard will win the campain in the same way as 2004 then you can take 5% of the current figures – which give us a very close election.
But “the narrowing” isn’t automatic. Something has to drive it.
Opps, should have had some headings on the last post
Coalition / ALP in the 2004 set of figures
ALP / Coaltion in the 2007 set of figures
Headings aside – my point is clear
Ricky at 13.
Of course the re con issue has had no effect, except to harden voter opinion on whatever part of the divide they exist. Howard has only himself to blame for creating that very divide. Asking for it.
My personal opinion is that ‘The Narrowing’ will occur, in varying degrees over the next five weeks.
In the last week of the campaign, we will see a very determined electorate, wanting to vote Labor. They have been there for a very long time. And they will be there on the day that matters.
Albert, 3 polls is nowehere near a good enough sample
Well, Election called and no narrowing. I was really expecting some joy for the Libs in Newspoll (even if only 1 % or so and simply because the last one was a dip for them), but twas not to be.
Anyone really think that 56% of the population are telling porkies to the pollsters, since april??
Albert that assumes that L*th*m = Rudd, which is rather not the case. It also ignores the fact that Labor’s lead has been both large and stable for a long time, which was not the case in 2004. There is no automatic narrowing. Howard has to make it happen, when the key issues – WorkChoices, climate change, interest rates, “it’s time” – are all dragging him down. Smearing Rudd hasn’t worked. “Union bosses” hasn’t worked. What else does he have?
The irony is, some of the so-called ‘union bosses’ aren’t too bad. Combet and Shorten are far more competent and personable than most of the reptilian toffs of the Liberal front bench. Unions are not a credible source of fear for anybody but the HR Nicholls Society.
Why do people exagerate two party prefer leads. For example: ” So large is Labor’s current lead, a 12-point lead on a two-party-preferred basis at the end of September, that even if it were halved by election day, Labor would romp in. – Sol Lebovic”
To me 56 / 44 is a 6 point lead. Because since this is a 2 pp measure, if the support of one group goes down, the other increases by the same amount.
If a single seat had a margin of 56 / 44 at the last election, we would say it was on a margin of 6%, because a 6% (+ 1 vote) swing would make it “fall”.
So I don’t undersatnd why in polls we say 56 / 44 is a 12 point lead. It isn’t, it’s a 6 point lead.
Shorten and Combet are going to make brilliant ministers some day. If Rudd is P.M. for a couple of terms, Shorten is the early candidate to be his successor as P.M. or leader of the opposition.
I just look back at the 1983 Labor cabinet with the likes of Hawke, Keating, Dawkins, Evans, Walsh, Button and see Shorten and Combet in that class.
Adam, yeah true – i think they’ll be line ball come election night, but do u really believe tiser polling anyway? such a poor record here in SA. in fact if they back you…almost a bad omen. The Advertiser is incredibly poor at polling – they ran a positive story on Handshin in sturt, even though she was supposedly two points behind (doubt that – she’d be ahead on current swing predictions and if shes two points behind id be happy to be Pyne) and a negative story on Cornes, even though the tisers bad polling showed she had still had a swing (story ran with talk of losing ground even though their own sloppy poll showed Cornes was made 2% ground). Mark Kenny, journo in question has an incredibly bad record at sloppy polling/analysis and seems to be writing favourably for the likes of Southcott in Boothby (who are factional allies of his brother) and negatively for likes of Pyne (wet lib).
(NB: Southcott and Downer are best mates and factional allies -Mark Kennys brother was Downers chief of staff ).
check this doozy out –
Sturt prediction by Kenny
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22535732-5006363,00.html
Boothby prediction by Kenny (the doozy)
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22535741-5006363,00.html
surely any candidate would only create a 1-2% variable either negatively or positively if such a massive swing occurs as is predicted and certainly no SA metro seats would have swings towards Libs…
Sure enough, ShowsOn, Combet and Shorten are very well regarded. Any swinging voter of my acquaintance thinks them heroic, in a folk loric way, for their respective recent roles.
Quite right, Todd. I agree as a South Australian.
Mark Kenny seems to have, well, bias.
One cannot conceive of, let alone read, the Advertiser reporting anything other than some fable, tilted, usually titanically so, towards the Libs.
Fortunately, such reportage has the inherent qualities of disaster.
I would argue that it’s quite correct to say that 56-44 is a 12 point “margin”. The figure 6% is instead the “required swing”.
But ShowsOn is right in that the term margin tends to be used in place of required swing in the context of single seats. And having two simultaneous definitions of margin is rather confusing.
Beautiful set etc…
So much for Shanahan’s ‘momentum’ nonsense! Does his arseclownitude know no limit?
And welcome to day two for Rodent. Another absolute shocker! Bahaha!
I predict no “narrowing” over the campaign, but rather a 2- 2.5 point correction based on the phenomena of Howard voting being a dirty, shameful little secret for some people – who just dont own up when polled.
Final result, ALP 53+ / LNP 46+.
8 -10 seat majority.
Greg Combet looks like a banker and Joe Hockey looks (and acts) like a Wharfie. Go Figure. (Apologies to the new improved MUA).
Glen Milne, still pushing Peter Costello, dumps on John Howard over reconciliation speech.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22584691-7583,00.html
In 2004, 13,021,230 people were enrolled to vote.
Thus a 1% move is 130,000 people changing their mind. The Govt wants around 5% to flip to them? About 650,000 people. But of course none can be flipping in the opposite direction.
PPM
TPP
http://www.theage.com.au/media/2007/10/15/1192300611984.html
Love Howard or Hate him:
Results so far:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/poll/display/1,22053,5031239-5001030-2,00.html
Most of the polling would have been done before the election was announced, so those still advocating a “narrowing” theory get one more poll.
Interesting the “narrowing” that happened after the election was called in Newspoll, was nowhere near is substantial in AC Nielsen, which I think dropped only 1%, a wonder how much of the “narrowing” was one or two optimistic polls.
Actually, thinking back to the time, the blips in the polls (just before the election) could have been Latham’s clever sucker-punch when Howard at first refused to support his Senate amendments in regards to ratifying the US-FTA to protect generic medicines. I think this was just before the election was called, as I even remember on day one or day two of the election campaign TV coverage of Latham turning up at a pharmacy to trumpet his credentials in protecting the PBS from those greedy pharmaceutical companies.
Seems they are running on:
*) the grubby fear
*) a Reconciliation agenda that anyone can see is insincere
There isn’t anything to inspire voters in that. Their “vision” extends only to election day. Even mildly switched-on voters would discern that, I feel.
re: #1, Adam, Julia Gillard was a student union leader. Pretty pathetic really. By that standard, half the coalition frontbench are also “union” bosses for their involvement in student politics.
Like imacca at 21 I’m a little surprised. I thought a point or two would have dropped off. 56/44 with nothing else changed means no momentum going in, leaving momentum building in the campaign as only hope for JWH. He looked quite pained in his press conference yesterday. I would too.
“In which union has Gillard ever held an elected or appointed position?”
She was President of the National Union of Students in 1982.
The Liberals haven’t actually said she was a boss of a trade union.
As for the other members of the Labor front bench, maybe at some point in their lives they’ve been on the committee of the Union Club of Sydney (www.unionclub.com.au).
The reporting of the Tiser’s Boothby poll was woeful but Tiser polls in general have a good record over many years.
nice little slogan to combat the libs scaremongering
“IDEAS NOT FEARS”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/cyberspace-democracy/2007/10/15/1192300613287.html
interesting article about bloggers etc
Spiros: If they start saying those involved in student unions are ‘union thugs’, then they also need to look at their own side.
As a sidenote, I think in 94 or 95, the Liberal-backed faction at National Union of Students wanted to rename it to Australian National Union of Students (look at the abbreviation).
BTW, Weren’t we expecting a Galaxy national poll today?
Good news that Newspoll is holding. Glenn Milne’s column in the OZ today about Howard and his conversion on the reconciliation issue is good reading. It appears Howard just sat down and wrote his speech without consulting any of his cabinet including Brough. Some ministers are horrified at that speech and the words Howard used. What this means is that the Libs are not a team in their OWN minds; this will project to the electorate.
The Labor party is really turned on to the high tech ways of communicating with the electorate this election (mobile phones, YouTube, etc) that haven’t been traditional contact modes in the past. I am a confirmed Labor voter and when I filled out order forms for Kevin07 shirts for my family, I filled out a form giving information about myself to them. I got a mobile phone text message this morning telling me the election had been called and if I wasn’t registered that I needed to do so by the deadline. Impressive prompt action on Labors part imho
Okay unions. Then Rudd says “Workchoices” and coughs the word “Costello” into his fist. And we’re 1:2.
What I was going to say is that people being polled might be punishing Howard for not calling the election soon enough: 57-43 is a ridiculous 2PP to be on. But it isn’t the 2PP that would worry me as much, because that will soften – probably no further than 53-47, but it will soften. What would have me worried is that (1) the Coalition can’t get a 2PP number that looks like the ALP primary number, and (2) The other parties are polling about 12% of the primary vote, and their preferences seem to be flowing 4:1 to the ALP.
And I think that’s probably important. According the rolling average I’m looking at, even if every single preference in every single seat went to the Coaltiion, it would only get 50.74% of the vote. I’d say Howard is probably polling with half an eye on the 2009/10 election.
Good to see Gillard on message rhis morning, saying that the election will be hard to win because “Mr Howard is a very clever politician”.
oops, Howard would be campaigning with half an eye. details: Demographic trends could point to a clear and obvious combined 50%+ raw share of the vote between the Greens and the ALP – if the Democrats finally drop off the cliff, with One Nation now nothing more than a cute story to tell over a bottle of barossa gold, and now that Family First has become…uh…whatever it is…when the party system calms down, how does the left-right split look?. And if the Green-ALP scenario is true, then the Lberals are going to be eaten alive by the electoral system. It would make the ALP the natural party of government. And I’m going to ask for a masterninja psephologist to step in and answer me this: is it a realigning election?
Yes, it is funny how none of the top three people shown in Liberal smear ads were union bosses.
It’s amateur time at its worst.
Shanahan reverting to type as a ’silver lining’ spotter again (preferred PM) this morning. One or two pieces – but only that many incl the Tas pulp mill analysis – gave some sign that he had an idea of what constitutes balanced (and thus useful) analysis
Seventy per cent of John Howard’s Cabinet were lawyers. How are lawyers more ‘representative’ than union officials?
ShowsOn (16),
If Kim Beazley Senior, rather than his replacement, had been at the relevant 1954 ALP federal executive meeting, there very likely would not have been a split or a DLP because he would have voted the other way.
Julie, how many people that signed up with Kevin ‘07 wouldn’t be registered to vote?
Youtube, mobile phones etc are a completely irrelevant mode of party political advertising because you have to actively seek it out. Television advertising is more pervasive because it appears whilst you are watching something else. This is the most persausive media format so the ALP need to come up with some hard-hitting but simple ads to run on tv. No confused or complex messages. New Leadership is a dud. They need something better.
You can’t just present yourself as new leadership, you need to explain why the old leadership is bad. Change for change sake is not a good argument.
hey LTEP: I’m really looking forward to what you call yourself come November 25.
When do nominations close?
Rudd has decided to counter the “70% of ALP are union bosses” argument:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586664-12377,00.html
Given the current state of polling, I think the “old leadership” has to explain why it’s the “right leadership” more than the “new leadership” does.
The government’s new attack ad is laughable.
Rudd is not Latham, and the “L Plate” image isn’t, unlike in 2004, boosting any existing fears about his management skills. He’s already seen as a pair of safe hands, and if Howard wants to change that, he’s going to have to do better than reusing imagery from 2004. The attack on Gillard as teh evil union bosses makes even less sense, because she was a partner at Slater and Gordon, not a unionist, before entering politics, and no one outside of diehard Liberals is actually going to buy into the “Julia Gillard is a scary communist” line.
Phil 57 – I heard that nominations close on 1 Nov. LTEP – why are you so confident that Labor will lose?
Two polls have been released with differing results, but they’re not mutually exclusive.
The national Newspoll reports the same result it’s been reporting for a long time 48/39 primary 56/44 TPP, ~ 9% swing.
The Galaxy poll in 4 QLD marginal seats shows 5%. Newspaper polls in SA show similar swings.
Assume the 5% figure is actually all the ALP will get in the marginals, then we can conclude two things:
1. that’s sufficient to deliver 18 seats by itself with the hypothetical uniform swing.
2. there are some very large swings going on elsewhere in the nation delivering seats that no-one thought would fall before. If 40 marginals (L/NP and ALP) are delivering a 5% swing to the ALP, then the other 110 seats will be delivering over a 10% swing.
(also posted this on the Galaxy thread)
the Libs have it on leadership, and the ALP have it on goodwill. But even that’s not enough to force a draw. Think of John Howard like Stirling Mortlock.
Why dont we run a lie detector over this election campaing here is number 1:
Prime Minister John Howard has promised to run a clean election campaign, denying knowledge of a Coalition dirt unit.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/well-keep-it-clean-pm/2007/10/15/1192300637422.html
KT, maybe strategically, but an Opposition that can’t point to the obvious reasons why we shouldn’t re-elect this government (and I can think of many, in fact I can’t think of a reason why I should re-elect them) is a very weak Opposition.
Scotty, I thought that was a very persuasive Rudd argument apart from this line:
“”I have a rock star, Peter Garrett, and myself, an unemployed diplomat, so there you go, I have a whole spread of people.”
Really Kev, the rebuttals on that line just write themselves.
The article posted by Scotty #58 is very good. Rudd explains the depth of experience in his frontbench and Party candidates. He also dispels the Coalition-cultured myth that they (Coalition) are due all the credit for the current economic boom. This is exactly the sort of lines Rudd should run hard with, IMO. Simple, effective and truthful.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586664-12377,00.html
Alex (61), I’m not confident Labor will lose – but I’m not confident it will win, either.
Long campaign will get message out: PM
Monday Oct 15 09:15 AEST
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=305478
“Prime Minister John Howard says he has opted for a six-week campaign to get the government message out.
He says neither he nor the government will be throwing mud, and he won’t be commenting on opinion polls”.
Another lie, didn’t the government just spend $200m in taxpayers money to get the governments message out?
Another PM lie, he is really on a roll, no wonder he is known as a lying rodent:
“IR laws taste bad, but good for you: PM”
“PRIME Minister John Howard has said Work Choices is like the GST – an unpopular move in the short term, for the nation’s good in the longer term”.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22586759-29277,00.html
Re Chris Curtis at # 54
Chris, would you please expand a little on the matter, for the benefit of the likes of me who are interested but unlearned ?
“Youtube, mobile phones etc are a completely irrelevant mode of party political advertising because you have to actively seek it out.”
It is very important in growing and keeping hold of the young gernerations vote – and it hasn’t seemed to hurt. AND the kids hand it on world of mouth.
By that rule Howard should never have been elected in 1996. His prior credentials were failed opposition leader and the worst performed Treasurer on record. In fact in 1996 Howard stood for nothing. In fact I thought Keating raised those facts at the time.
The dynamic here is that people are quite determined to get rid of the Howard Govt because it is inherently dishonest (the big list begining with Children Overboard…) and not serving the people’s interest, only big business; it has betrayed Australians with WC etc. Rudd and Co offer a competent alternative that appear will put government back on its normal tracks.
To Lose the Election
Have you ever thought that people do not want a US type society and that’s what they are voting against? I think you need to come up with in depth commentary than this? How about that people reject a far right industrial relations system that is for the business and economic elites….have you actually gone into this issue ?
Herald Sun are running an online poll – ‘Will labor Win?’ current results 54% – yes, 45% – no. Just like Newspoll for the past 6 months!
Check out this animation from Your Rights at Work Campaign :
http://www.offandrunning.com.au.
When analysing the polls, my mind keeps slipping back to 1996, because that’s the last time a sitting Govt was comprehensively booted.
can Adam, or anybody, root out the approval/disapproval ratings for the PM vs the leader of the opposition in the weeks leading up to that election.
My hypothesis is that Howard is just as much on the nose as Keating was then. these figures would prove, or disprove my theory.
( I don’t think they want to hit JWH with a bat, but to give him a walking frame, and send him somewhere to kind people who can pretend to be interested in what he says)
With the Morgan polls included the ‘narrowing’ points to a 56/44 result. If the Morgan polls are excluded the ‘narrowing’ trend points to a 55/45 result by polling day. That’ll do me!!
Adam@2: I suppose the Libs will argue that Gillard was President of AUS (student UNION – gasp) and worked for a labour law firm (and probably did work for UNIONS – double gasp). But a very long bow for sure.
Gippslander, Howard is still quite popular for a long-serving PM. You can find graphs on approval ratings etc. on Bryan’s OzPolitics website (http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/ and scroll down to the 1996 v 2007 section).
Bird, I’m yet to be convinced WC is the driving force behind Labor’s lead in the polls. We’ll see in the end, but I just think people are overestimating it.
Kina, just about all of those factors existed at the 2004 election and the Coalition were not just returned, but returned with an increased majority. Labor need to demonstrate a good reason why all those people should change their votes at this election. Just saying “new leadership” is extremely weak.
The fact of the matter is that Howard is much more popular than Keating was in 1996, and I’d suggest in the right areas. He has mass appeal, which I put down to his false modesty and “Aussie” persona (cricket loving, dropping in ‘bloke’ and ‘mate’ whenever possible). Rudd needs to present himself as better than this, and a credible alternative. At the moment, Rudd cannot claim to be credible if all he is saying is he has ideas. What are his ideas? We should have a better idea by now.
This campaign is unfortunately going to be like Greece playing in the European cup. They kicked their goal and will now keep possetion and defend like made for the next 6 weeks.
I noticed that Kev said that the coalition is responsible for only some of the economic success. How about none of it. Unfortunately keating is a dirty word but without his reforms, we would be up the creek without a paddle.
Morgan wasn’t a narrowing – it was more of the same within MOE. The current Newspoll shows that as well, 56/44 usually equates to a Morgan of 58+ . Morgan would need at least one more or two at that level to be a narrowing.
I suspect there may be an initial narrowing because of the fear of change factor which, will drift apart again once some of the nervous nellies get used to the idea of a Labor Rudd government.
A longer campaign might actually work against the Government. The longer people get to contemplate a Labor Govt the more they will get familiar and less nervous about change. Probably the Govt needed to run a very short super-fear campaign.
Rudd would have been planning for this campaign in detail for quite a while and would have been well aware of what the Govt would do.
The debate will do Howard no good at all, regardless of who wins, because it juxtaposes the two and makes it very easy for the public to make a comparison in their mind. Rudd looks intelligent, younger and more aware. Is rather like an ad for Rudd.
LTEP – your conservative analysis does not fit with the polls, behaviour of th two leaders, and the press and people’s reactions to all these over the year. I understand the scarred caution, but I think that you will look back on some of these posts (in light of the evidence that does exist) after the fact, and see yourself quite off the mark.
Look, for instance, not just at Howards approval rating, but he gap between Rud and Howards, as opposed to Howard and Keating in the day. We have shifted everything into another band, but everything is still pointing to a clear leader, and a distant second.
As a bonus, here is a ‘d’ AND an ‘.
Looking at those 1996-2007 polls, two things came to mind:
#1 The Coalition 96/ALP 07 and ALP 96/Coalition 07 primary votes seem to be correlating reasonably well.
#2 Rudd’s stratospheric popularity – it’s verging on being ridiculous. Howard wasn’t close to being this popular in 1996.
Interesting graphs to ponder. It would be nice for a reverse 1996 to happen to end the Howard era.
Mike F (56)
Re – Lose The Election Please (nee Call The Election Please) – my suggestion for his/her new name after the election is – Lost The Election Thanks.
Hey Adam, I’m slightly disturbed by the placing of your “Election Day 24 November” caption on your opinion polls chart. Is the placing of that caption on the 50% line a prediction ?
Two points – the first pendantry:
1. In 1982 there was no “National Union of Students” only the Australian Union of Students (it wasn’t quite dead yet!).
2. I hope people spend less time blogging and more time working on the election now it has been called. I’ve been largely off this site for that very reason, and hope others will be too (checking in perhaps ocassionally).
Anyway, back to work moulding young minds.
KT,
Do you think Rudds popularity will be so high on November 23? I predict it will be under 55% favourable rating and above 35% disapprove, compared to 60% and 24%.
Lose the Election:
The full impact of the IR stuff, which is 90% of power to employer, will not be seen until the next recession, – the long term ramifications are an extreme income disparity and increase crime and social dislocation. Understanding the ideological gravity of it is something that only a small percentage of the population understand -hence the huge difference of opinion between people who say “better the devil you know etc”
Also, look at public universities – they are sufferiing from particularly the last 15 years of neoliberalism. The final corporatisation of uni’s was the intro of full fees into undergraduate courses – all the academics that I know say that was the most shocking thing as standards have already dropped cause of right wing fundamentalism – I know of an academic at Sydney Uni who is passing year 12 physics in 2/3rd year science degree now. The election of a labor party would be better for public uni’s – they invest more in a society (in a public sense as the libs tend to invest in a private sense) and are at least saying that they will take a stand on full fees in u/g course
Basically, labor with a neoliberal virus is better than Liberal. Of course, if you wanted a US society as a matter of ideology then that would be different but I do not think that is most Australian’s – either way, you would not be saying “Better the devil you know is better than not”
All this guff about Howard has to do this, and Rudd has to that, misses the point completely.
Most people, the vast majority in fact, do not closely follow election campaigns. They don’t read political blogs. They don’t agonise over every percentage point change in every opinion poll.
Of course, they get bombarded with election advertising, and some of it sinks in, but all that happens is that pre-campaign impressions are reinforced, as in Latham L Plates.
Howard himself has said, time and again. “you don’t fatten the pig on market day”, meaning that you can’t turn around a losing position in the official campaign.
This year has been one big constant 55:45 poll for Labor, give or take MoE. There’s no reason at all to expect that that will change during the campaign.
For it to change at all would require a massively successful campaign by Howard and the Liberals. But Howard has lost support in every campaign he has led the Liberals (five spanning 1987 to 2004) except 2004, when all had to do was sit back and watch Latham self-destruct.
And there’s no reason to think that the Liberals will fight a disciplined campaign, if today’s column by Milne is anything to go by. It’s a scathing, indeed contempuous, critique of Howard that was without any doubt drafted by his enemies in the party, perhaps Costello himself. That’s not what you want on Day 1 of a campaign.
The zeitgeist is with Labor. We have the IPCC and Al Gore winning the Nobel Peace Prize for their climate change work, a Labor issue. We have US army commanders saying Iraq is an ill-thought-through disaster – another Labor theme.
Everything points to a big Labor win. Only an epic event like a major terrorist attack could change the outcome.
Prime Minister John Howard [denied] knowledge of a Coalition dirt unit
Eh? What’s this all about then:
The Sunday Telegraph, 15 July 2007
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22073660-2,00.html
And why is the taxpaying public being charged for this clearly partisan electioneering activity??
I just can’t see how Howard is going to salvage the election from here.
This “diumvirate” thing with Costello is more a DUMvirate.
Howard adores the limelight. It’s all about him. HE delivers the policies and thus sidelines the ministers.
Yet he tells us that Costello is taking over. If so, firstly, why should we take any notice of what Howard’s “plans” are?
Secondly, where is Costello? This question will be asked more and more. The pressure ison for Costello to make an appearance and assert his case for election as future Prime Minister. This time a vote for Howard is – by Howard’s own admission – a vote for Costello. No ifs or buts about it.
Yet Howard cannot bear to give up the limelight. Eventually, after the calls for Costello to appear are made, he’ll have to put the hard word on Johnny: “PM, I’m next. You’ve got to give me some air.”
Howard will resist for a couple of weeks. Whenever he’s asked a question on the leadership (and there’ll be plenty, in fact they may become the ONLY question) he won’t be able to help chanting that HE is Prime Minister and HE makes the decisions. But ultimately he may have to give way to Costello appearing alongside him, succumbing to internal party pressure, thus neatly rendering meaningless the first several weeks of the campaign. This will weaken both Howard and Costello as it becomes obvious to even Blind Freddy that there is dissention and jealousy in the top ranks of the government.
They’re going to fall apart in a few weeks or, more accurately, tear themselves to pieces. The Coalition will become a laughing stock as Costello begs for a go as would-be leader, with Howard resisting to the bitter end. Their “zero unemployment” promise is already a joke (given the lack of faith in Howard concerning the interest rate scare of last election). Pretty soon the entire effort will become a joke.
The question will be not whether Rudd wins but by how much.
I agree with Spiros 90 – the Milne article in the Oz is just what you don’t want on day 1 of a campaign. It confirms the Libs are divided and disunity is death. 56/44 Newspoll – two big problems for Howard. The polls usually don’t narrow by more than 2% during campaigns. Also, all stated margins for Labor to win Liberal seats should be reduced by 2% to allow for ’scary’ Latham factor. The hearse awaits.
Why would a terrorist attack change the outcome? This government have been responsible for making us a target. Their following of a village idiot lay in the face of advice given at every quarter. Revelations on the poor security of Sydney airport is another example. The government’s blatant refusal to heed advice for want of political advantage is infamous. Kelty is a lap dog slapped down every time he manages to think for himself. The notion that we would be safer under the coalition is laughable given the ludicrous purchase of helicopters that can’t fly in bad weather… outdated tanks… inferior fighters etc.
Can you tell me what you are basing this prediction on?
It’s very difficult to predict public opinion when we don’t know how the campaign will be received ahead of time. Also, I don’t think personal approval rating has much of a bearing on the final vote anyway.
Voters can say they like a leader, but won’t vote for the party because they also like the leader of the party they are voting for. Secondly, they can dislike both leaders and vote for their preferred party. Then you’ve also got to consider the impression that the whole leadership team (i.e. cabinet/shadow cabinet) in any party presents. An inferior leader, but superior team would probably get the nod over a superior leader, but inferior team.
It’s a nice measure, but ultimately worthless I think. Voting intention is always the best guide.
Has there ever been an election in which one party has had such a consistently large lead for a such a long time going into the campaign, and then lost?
Re 55
Lose the election please Says:
“You can’t just present yourself as new leadership, you need to explain why the old leadership is bad.”
Labor has and you obviously haven’t been listening. Nor have you been paying attention to the last 11 years if you don’t understand why the current leadership is rotten to the core. Or you are a Liberal voter and spouting the party line in which case anything I write isn’t going to convince you.
No. Not a lead this big, and not with the polls being so consistent.
In 1993 the Liberals were in front at the start of the election week. HOWEVER, in that year, and during 1992, the polls were very volatile. For the last 12 months Labor has consistently been leading, the only movement has been the degree of lead.
Fair point, but the picture is roughly the same if you go further back
Average NewsPoll 2PP for ALP
Last 5 polls before election announce
Latham 51.6 Rudd 56.2
Last 10 Polls before election annouced
Latham 51.6 Rudd 56.7
Worst Poll in the 10 prior to election announed
Latham 47.0 Rudd 55.0
The point being that howard needs the same campain win he had against Latham to make it a line-ball contest.
This time around I think the ALP will run a better campain. Its still at the edge of possibilities that he can scrape home but the ALP just needs to run a reasonable campain.
Also, it may be a meaningless oberservation but Latham’s worst poll in the lead up to the election was roughly where he ended up. Is there something in the spread of polling reasults that indicates what there is to gain over the campain?
Ouch! That Glenn Mine article is absolutely vicious!
When parties go into campaigns leading big, they win big, as has happened at every state election in living memory.
If I was a Liberal Party strategist I’d be very happy to read this blog with the over confidence shown by the Labor side and so many people planning their victory celebrations when the battle has only begun. Why does no one on the Labor side listen to Kevin Rudd when he says it’s going to be a hard fought election with a close result? If you think the Libs are going to roll over and play dead just because of a bunch of polls you’re kidding yourself. Right now, there are teams of Liberal Party supporters pouring over the details of every marginal and looking for local issues which can swing votes. They will fight tooth and nail for every seat. This election will be won and lost in the marginals, not in the opinion polls.
paul k: I’ve listened and I’m helping out in Kooyong. Every little bit helps.
I think Glen realises that Howard has through pure selfishness and lust for power blown this election.
Like all drug addicts Howard can’t see his problem or thinks it is small. It doesn’t help that he hates Costello and would rather lose the election than see him as leader of the party.
You would expect the campaign to end up a draw and, accounting for those who suffer from fear of change the final result might be 54/46.
If Howard & Co stuffs up big time with some trick, smear then 55-56 I guess could be a real eye-opener.
Fargo61 (70),
When the ALP federal executive debated intervening in Victoria to take control from the anti-communist wing of the party, Kim Beazley snr was overseas, at a Moral Rearmament conference I think,so his place as a WA representative on the executive was taken by another delegate (whose name I forget). Mr Beazley would have voted against intervention, but the replacement voted for it, giving it the numbers. Without intervention in Victoria, there would have been no split, as the subsequent NSW and Queensland splits followed from the Victorian one.
Yes, because what a bunch of (apparently) rusted on ALP voters say in blog comments has relevance to the electoral battle in the marginals.
I’m sure the people in the field are not complacent and are working their arses off. After eleven years in the wilderness, you can’t be.
Could some of you cleaver people here please help me with the rodents latest track suit.
Maby the yellow and green track suite is at the cleaners or is there something i’m missing?
The position of Howard in the polls is the result of many issues after 11 years. But to think that the Libs can win by running the economic line against Labor won’t work. It’s more than just pay packets – Howard is no longer trusted after children overboard, interest rate lies, Iraq, AWB etc etc. People are sick of his slimy obfuscation and use of legalese and weasel-words to try to get out of trouble. Howard has too much negative baggage. Rudd looks clean, honest and smart – the voters are happy to give him a go. The hearse awaits in the driveway.
The LIbs do their best to appear either smallminded, or buffoons.
Al Gore wins a Nobel Peace Prize, and JWH says.. That’s nothing, I ‘m gonna turn off my computer tonight.I can do that!
Rudd talks Mandarin. Downer says he learnt French (but carefully doesn’t prove it by speaking it in an international forum)
A Catholic priest speaks out on social matters..Abbott tells him to stick to transubstantiation!
This lot are really off the planet!
Paul K.
If liberal strategists are reading this blog to find answers then they are in big trouble. Yes we are confident but not overly so. There is change afoot and nothing will slow its momentum. To suggest that one utterance of new liberal policy will stem the tide is to not understand our psyche. We no longer like this slimy lying self-indulgent bunch of pretentious turds. Game over! By emphasizing it will be close, Rudd is quelling the sympathy vote that might come from fear of a rout. And rout is exactly what we will get.
Liz, I think its fair to say that Glen Milne is “soft” in his support for Rudd, much like Sol Leibovic.
Trying to think analytically about what might change trends between now and polling day, I thought it woudl be interesting to compile a list of dates with potentially significant dates between now and 24 November. Does anyone know:
- when is the next Reserve bank decision on interest rates due?
- when are next major figures on inflation or unemployment due?
- is the Dr Haneef appeal due in court before 24 November?
- is there anything due on those Qld cases of the electoral expenses investigations, or are they closed?
- anything else that might influence people beyond the spin?
It’s amazing that after the country being at it’s peak of economic growth that some Australia’s still have their blinkers on as to who is the best party to lead this country. It really is a no brainer. The current government is the most experienced to run this country. With the current climate of the world going made. Who is the better leader to continue to build strong international relationships. Keven Rudd will only bag out another international leader, or a section of the community, to piss them all off then what?? work that one out for your self – he has no professional tack at all.
For those who do not have to live in a State run by Labour MPs you will never know what it is like, to live with decisions that have been made by Labour State MPs, who have now effected our lifestyle due to poor planning or lack of. In Queensland Kevin Rudd had a part to play and yes whilist some don’t want to remember due to Kevin’s part with poor decision making. The Dam was not built in the right spot and as a result of that and the Labour Government not brining in water restrictions soon enough.
The day in the life of a Queenslander, South East qld, 4 minute showers if that, crammed trains, that don’t run frequent enough, congested roads, joke, lack of hospital services, infrastructure that should have been done years ago and even now the underground roads are only 2 lanes. Hundreds of people working in Government Departments, (State Goverment) that the Federal should take over and streamline the processes. That’s the reality.
Finally all Australia’s should accept their history. Aboriginal people are the first people of this land. And the sooner everyone accepts their heritage and embraces it. Takes interest in, it – the better. Wouldn’t it be nice to see a traditional aboriginal dance when Australia play instead of that – Waltz Sing Maltida (who’s culture is that) perhaps the people who are intereted in voting for an incompetent oppostion government.
Don’t all whinge when you re-live the days of interest rates hiked under the Labour Government. If you think it’s tough now and un fair then you haven’t seen anything yet if narrow minded people vote for Kevin Rudd – it’s a joke.
Educate yourselves better with the past?? That is all I can say. To every pensioner who had to live the Labour years, I think you will all understand what I mean.
To the young generation, listen for once to the older generation so you don’t have to relive our pain again.
Lets us retire with content, and not a unstable country with unstable leadership.
As this is my first post (having visited for ages), thanks to William for the fantastic site (and all the effort that must go into it)!
I was wondering if anyone knew of any sites that provide (or will provide) factual comparisons of the policies of the parties. I think something like that (which was not aligned to a particular party) would be really interesting (I’d love to see more focus on policy, wishful thinking I know)
I liked what the PTUA did for the Victorian election in 2006 (although, obviously this is from their viewpoint, not a completely objective comparison).
http://www.ptua.org.au/election2006/
Any thoughts?
Re. 70% of Howard’s cabinet are lawyers.
Given that Union Bosses represent the workers, who do lawyers usually represent? – Should give a clue to the record of this government, especially all their legalistic verbiage in avoiding responsibility for all their cock-ups and outright corrupt actions.
It’s going to be a very long 40 days and 40 nights.
Kina Says: @ 33
{The Govt wants around 5% to flip to them? About 650,000 people. But of course none can be flipping in the opposite direction.}
Kina, looking at that graph form the Age, it is clear that Howard missed his best chance by not calling the election in July for an August election.
He was getting a small trend back and the margin is nowhere near as large as it is now. To try and peg it back enough to win now is a big ask.
http://www.theage.com.au/media/2007/10/15/1192300611984.html
56-44 is an excellent result for the ALP after what was really a fairly average week. But it’s the next Newspoll that will be truly interesting, as it will be the first to be taken comprehensively after the starter’s gun has gone off.
Political analysts are struggling a bit to put their finger precisely on why the polls have been so consistently good for the ALP, and why they continue to be.
My view is that it comes down to a simple issue of time. John Howard has been in power for 11 years. Eventually you tend to hurt a lot of people in some way or another over such a period. The longer you are around the more likely it is that you will do something or say something that creates a grudge for an individual voter, or at least a negative perception to counter the widely held view that Howard is a “good, ordinary bloke”. So it’s a matter of discontent building up over a long stretch of time. People tend to hang onto the negative more than the positive. It’s the way we’re built.
There’s an inflation report from the bureau of statistics due on the 24th, next Wednesday.
The reserve bank board meets on the 6th of November, and will announce the interest rate change (if any) on 7th of November.
Socrates 111 – the next inflation figures are due from ABS on 24 October, the RBA sits on 6 Nov. The markets appear to have factored in a rate rise by looking at the Oz dollar (92 US). If the inflation figure is scary on 24 Oct, don’t be surprised if the RBA does raise rates on Nov 6. A lucky Melbourne Cup pressie for Howard!!
Socrates, RBA meets re interest rates on Melbourne Cup day. The media will jump all over Johnnie if there’s a rise (unprecendented in our history to have a rate rise during an election campaign)
Chris Curtis @105.
My understanding was that the party expelled Santamaria’s parliamentary supporters at the 1955 conference so, in many ways the ALP brought the split onto themselves.
In hindsight, I think the split has given us a better balanced Labor party than being controlled by the lunatic fringe of the far left.
Kina Says: @ 80
{A longer campaign might actually work against the Government. The longer people get to contemplate a Labor Govt the more they will get familiar and less nervous about change. Probably the Govt needed to run a very short super-fear campaign.}
Kina, I have thought that for a long time. The best chance Howard had was to have a short furious campaign with a strong message hammered home at every opportunity to try and take oxygen from Rudd’s campaign.
That he hasn’t done that suggests that 1. He has had poor advice from his adviser’s 2. In running scared due to the emergence of terrific PPM figures from Rudd and the diabolic position they find themselves in the polls, Howard has guessed wrongly again and will most probably only add to the pain with an extremely late, long campaign.
If Labor wins the campaign, which I predict it to do, then, not only is Howard finished, it will be a route of biblical proportions.
New Australia – nice manifesto, but I think that most passing through here are pretty informed, and formed in their views with regards to their vote. You should campaign elsewhere.
The debate over the debate is hotting up.
Seems Howard’s proposal involved it being aired ONLY on Pay TV.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22587129-29277,00.html
Alex and Ozymandias, thanks that is what I was wondering. Are there any dates for likely up-side news for the Government? Also, any major dates for other issues that might be significant – didn’t Haneef’s legal team have some court appeal lodged, or is that due next year?
Also, as a comment on the Newspoll, I don’t see why its such a surprise. The phoney war has been going on for so long now, with high levels of taxpayer-funded and union-funded advertising, that this isn’t that much of a change. Many will be glad the end is in sight, regardless of preference. Logically only those who want Howard to win and who have something personal invested (eg jobs as political hacks) would want this to continue.
Gecko @110
Liberal strategists would not be reading these threads.
We are converted to the Labor party on this site and I haven’t read anyone on here as a swinging voter.
The Liberals will be looking at the marginals for opinions, not here.
I agree with Paul K, complacency is our biggest danger. This election is a lot closer than the polls suggest and you watch the gap tighten now that the date has been set.
Everybody in Australia now lives in a state/territory run by Labor MPs.
I agree with Pancho, nice spiel, but I daresay it’s not going to get much traction here.
Errr….everyone lives in a state run by Labor. Unless, of course, this blog is over-run by interfering Botswanans.
Twit.
Generally it isn’t a good idea being so patronising when you are trying to persuade people to support one political party or the other.
Or are you using the John Howard tactic of saying that all the opinion polls just show that Australians have a sense of humour?
How experienced at being P.M. was John Howard on March 4, 1996? If we adopt this experience rubbish the government would never change, which is probably what you want. But that’s too bad, because we live in a democracy.
Unfortunately the current government doesn’t have a very good climate change policy.
That would be Kevin Rudd.
This doesn’t make any sense.
Um, vote that state government out then. Kevin Rudd is running to be elected prime minister, which is a position in federal politics.
???
Everyone should have 4 minute showers. It is a standard measure to conserve water.
So why has Howard done nothing about Aboriginal reconcillation for 11 years?
Whitlam, Fraser, Hawke, Keating all supported reconcilliation. The current Prime Minister is the odd one out.
What about when the 30 day bill rate was 22% under Treasurer John Howard? Or do we only refer to history when it favours us?
More patronising garbage. Telling people what they should do without a logical argument won’t persuade anyone.
“interfering Botswanans.”
Always getting in the way, curse them!
“We’ll fix hospitals for working families” (Rudd on Sunrise this morning)
What about the rest of us?? I’m getting sick of this whole working families thing.
Oh and prorogation proclamation for those interested: http://www.ag.gov.au/portal/govgazonline.nsf/C2592AB524E7B3A0CA2573750007F345/$file/S204.pdf
So to win Howard needs to campain as well or better than he did against Latham. Here 10’s reasons why I don’t think that will happen.
1) Howard got very lucky early on in the last campain when the Aust. Embassay was bombed in Jakata. It put national security into focus for much of the campain. Touch wood – this won’t happen again. Even if it does Rudd is not cornered in the same way the Latham was.
2) During the campain there were a few fairwell to troops ceromonies which Latham was wedged into supporting. Each time he lost momentum. This time around Iraq is a baggage for Howard. Expect to hear the phrase “worst forigen policy mistake since vietnam” alot.
3) Latham traded two tassie seats for (it seems) no green votes on the mainland. Rudd has not made this political mistake (welcome to politics Mr Garrett).
4) Rudd is more personable and telegenic than Howard.
5) Workchoices
6) Climate change
7) A more disciplinded campain from the ALP this time around. (Not a one-man catherine wheel).
9) The articulate and presentable Maxine will be a constant under-dog side story throughout the campain.
10) The ALP is cashed up and has weathered the storm of tax payer funded advertising without having to fire a shot and give any of its positions away.
Having said all that – Rudd and the ALP still need a good campain to bring it home.
If I was a Liberal Party strategist I’d be very happy to read this blog with the over confidence shown by the Labor side…
paul k 102
And if I was Labor party strategist I’d be very happy to read the kind of drivel that passes for informed commentary by the rabid right acolytes that populate blogs like Tim Blair’s and Andrew Bolt’s.
•••••••••••••••••••••
112 New Australia
Interesting how your handle link resolves to an invalid URL (http://aliashotmail.com/). Might want to fix that, huh?
Also interesting how a number of ‘new’ commentators have suddenly turned up here lately, all spouting selectively detailed Coalition talking points. Hmm.
This post is a nice summation IMHO. Labor has the momentum and the circumstances. Nice use of the word zeitgeist. Even though Rudd mis-steps, it doesn’t matter. Last election, people wanted Howard out but couldn’t bring themselves to vote for Latham. This time around, more people are more serious about evicting Howard, while Rudd is more electable than Latham was.
People want Rudd to be good enough, so by definition he will be. Open your eyes, doubters, look at the mistakes that Rudd has made and not a single one has hurt him in any way whatsoever; he is made of teflon and Howard knows it and it shows.
[The debate over the debate is hotting up.
Seems Howard’s proposal involved it being aired ONLY on Pay TV.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22587129-29277,00.html
That is just completely lame. If it is true that he didn’t want it shown on free to air, then Rudd should attack him for running scared.
(I personally think the terms of debate should be determined years in advance by an independent boady, and an act of parliament. I think this debate about the debate is terribly boring, and gives too much power to the incumbent P.M.)
I’m happy to see somethign of the sort is Labor policy:
“A federal Labor government would establish a debates commission to organise three leaders’ debates during future election campaigns, Mr Rudd said. “
Er um… I think the older generation are going to vote for the ALP too
suckers for punishment maybe?
Glen’s worst nightmare:
http://www.coredata.com.au/theaustralianmap.php
# 107 – envy, The Rodent obviously decided to change his track suit the moment Jonny Wilkinson put the Wallabies to the sword. Because he never thought this would happen – along with most other Rugby tragics – he had to send Janette hurriedly down to K-Mart for another one.
That’s the one he’s wearing now.
Chtis Curtis @ 105
Your synopis of events 50+ years ago is OK, but I think it overlooks the deep personal animosities, and unbridgeable philosophical divide in the ALP at the time.
Stan Keon the then MHR for Yarra would make any of the Neocons look like boy scouts.
The situation would have exploded whatever papering over of the cracks.
Makes you wonder who they think they’ll reach. The number of undecideds posting to this site would have to be very low, surely. As for undecided lurkers, only William could estimate the number of total lurkers and I imagine the undecideds amongst them would be low.
So realistically, what do the Lib apparatchiks hope to achieve. Ameliorate the zeitgeist?
Thanks Snakeboy,
The one he’s wearing now has the Government logo on,
Looks like prison uniform,….maybe he’s practicing.
Amber I’m still undecided,
Undecided on whether to vote for Kevin once or twice
Ameliorate the zeitgeist?
That rolls of the tongue very nicely, AD. Maybe that could be the Coalition’s new slogan?
How could you not vote for someone who looks like this:
http://www.alp.org.au/people/index.php?task=qs&seat=sturt
OK, that’s only my opinion…
“…rolls off the tongue…”
Sheesh.
Just Me @ 132:
“Also interesting how a number of ‘new’ commentators have suddenly turned up here lately, all spouting selectively detailed Coalition talking points. Hmm.”
Same story on other blogs and message boards.
Message must have come down from Liberal Party HQ: “Start blogging, we’re not paying you $8 an hour to sit on your behinds.”
Yes they are definitely here. Posting and reading.
I’ve noted that some discussion in this blog on flaws in the Lib campain has let to changes in the campain. For example, one workchoices ad was re-shot to remove a silly bit that was widely discussed here.
Be careful, they are struggling to stay afloat – offer nothing but stones.
Speaking of tracksuits, did Howard stay up and watch the Rugby the other night? I didn’t see him on the tv. Whereas we always seem to see him cheering the team on at midnight when it wins. Amazing there is always a camera crew hanging around his lounge room at those times. I’m sure they’re not staged shots though – no doubt he watches every game, and doesn’t just instruct a minder to say “wake me five minutes before full time if we’re in front”. Its the genuineness of the man that I respect most.
ShowsOn @ 143 says:
“How could you not vote for someone who looks like this:
http://www.alp.org.au/people/index.php?task=qs&seat=sturt
OK, that’s only my opinion…”
Mia Handshin is one smart cookie; Christopher P y n e has good reason to be concerned.
I think this map is quite interesting, although of course you can’t take much from it, it being a net poll with, currently, a law sample size.
http://www.coredata.com.au/theaustralianmap.php
Liz @ 100
It’s a sizzler, that Milne piece today, and goes some small way to redeeming his boofhead appearance on Insiders this week. (Milne is so much better in print, he really should not try to compete with fast and articulate talkers in that TV format)
But he’s on the money today: Howard is soooo alone this time. The Cheshire Smirk (well, Costello is all but invisible except for the grin) has been annointed as ‘leadership material’ and then virtually ignored by Howard, which makes the ‘team’ story look like just another ‘non-core promise’.
Ever since they scrawled 10 billion bucks on the back of an envelope and then waved it about as a policy to save the Murray Darling, we’ve had Howard running a government by fiat and fueled by a massive surplus. So now the electorate has to don its hard hats as the pork rains down on the marginals and all there the while there’s Howard trying desperately to convince us (and himself no doubt) that his time is not well and truly up.
Milne nailed him today, there’s nowhere to hide.
“For those who do not have to live in a State run by Labour MPs you will never know what it is like, to live with decisions that have been made by Labour State MPs, who have now effected our lifestyle due to poor planning or lack of. ” I think some here were a bit anal in their criticism of New Australia 112. It is the grammar which has let him/her down, he probably meant to write that in the past tense or was referring to wider geography. Sentences don’t end in ‘of’ either.
Re #57 – Phil, the AEC website confirms what Alex (#61) heard – close of nominations on 1 November allows the maximum possible time for nominations. This date will be specified in the writs to be issued on Wednesday, but could potentially be set anywhere between 27 Oct (minumum 10 days after issue of writs) and 1 Nov (minimum 23 days before polling day.
Thinking of standing?
Albert F @ 146
Wise advice. Walls have ears, loose lips sink ships … yep, give ‘em stones, lumps of old concrete, three-wheeled shopping trolleys … but not good advice. That’s the job of the MSM cheer squad.
Hi there poll-bludgers, my first post about a month after finding pollbludger.com (many thanks to the venue management: William).
I have found some crucial evidence pointing to the latest Howard wedge tactic on The Kev at http://rightthinker.com/
News Flash: Rudd endorsed by the Hoff – “strippergate” the key
——————————————————————–
“Any politician who says with a straight face he didn’t know he was at a strip club gets my vote”
Polls don’t count when The Hoff comes out on your side
Mark @ 31: “Greg Combet looks like a banker”
Nah, he looks like Clark Kent. One of these days he’ll whip off those glasses and dart into a phone box.
Good afternoon
paul k says: “This election will be won and lost in the marginals, not in the opinion polls.” Incorrect. The election will be won and lost by the national campaigns. The marginals will go along with the statewide swings, which will largely though not entirely be determined by the national campaigns. If there is (for example) a 10% swing in Victoria, then Labor will win 10 seats, give or take one or two. Some seats will swing less, some will swing more, but they will cancel each other out. In an urban seat, a good local member and a good local campaign are worth maybe 2%, in a country seat rather more. But no local campaign will save a 5% seat from a 10% swing.
DLP, if you are a DLP member, can you advise when the DLP will be announcing its candidates? There’s nothing I can see at the DLP website.
I’m wondering what people thought of the first ads last night.
During Australian Idol (I’m a compulsive reailty TV fan) last night the only ads I saw were the one with the L plates, and the ACTU one with the guy from Narre Warren in Victoria.
I’m stunned that the Libs would bring back the L plates when a key part of the attack on the them is that they are ’stale’. And surely they can’t think that the public view Rudd just the same as they viewed Latham. They could not be more different. I also thought that they lacked any sort of incisive slogan. Reminds me of the 1996 campaign when the Keating campaign advertising theme was “A Howard Government: Don’t Risk It!”. And didn’t that work??
As for the ACTU ad it has been around for a while now, but I can see why they are still using it – it’s so powerful. By the end of it you just want to find Howard and punch him for what his laws have done to that guy’s family.
But I’m a rusted on Labor voter so my critiques are hardly surprising. What did other people think?
Alex McDonnel, here’s one for you (you almost wrote it yourself) “Sentences don’t end in the word ‘of’”.
In the words of another (not political) blogger:
“Now instead of being bombarded with ads about how great the Coalition government is, we’ll be bombarded with ads about how great the Coalition government is AND ads about how much Kevin Rudd sucks! Yippee!”
People are already sick of Labor and Liberal, they just want it over so they can get on with watching TV without throwing a shoe at it. 6 more weeks of this?
ALP advs should feature heaps of Howard’s head and him talking -it’s what everyone is sick of seeing and hearing. And end with the narration: Get this man off our televisions.
Adam,
Guess I can just order my champagne for the 24th and maybe not even bother about voting. You’ve got it all tied up. No need for anyone to worry about what’s going on in the marginals. Don’t know why we’re even bothering with a campaign seeing it’s all going to be so easy.
I think Adam agreed that a good local campaign was worth 2%. In a marginal 2% is definately the difference between a win and a loss. But if you have to rely no a marginal campaign to win the election then you’re in big danger. The marginal campaign should be about consolidating gains made in the national campaign.
“Costello to ambush labor on tax”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587386-5014046,00.html
Ozymandias 157 – you can put anything in inverted commas. Having seen the standard of spelling and grammar on a number of blogs over the past year, I think no one should throw stones! But we do live an age of abbreviated texting.
The idiots at the GG are still on about this 17 seats needed by Labor. WTF.
{The magic number for November 24 is 17: the number of seats between Labor’s current parliamentary representation of 59 and the 76 seats needed to give the ALP a majority of one. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586180-5014046,00.html
Scotty @ 58: That is a great speech by Rudd. And a beautiful article coming from The Australian.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Liberal campaign ads get any better than those aired last night. A Liberal MP was anonymously quoted on AM today saying if the campain is fairly standard, they’ll lose. Well, I haven’t seen anything innovative yet. Personality based presidential campaign, even though Howard’s due to walk halfway through the next term, “L plate” negative ads and scares aplenty. All pretty standard fare. The offer of a debate next Sunday was interesting. I wonder if he’ll go for more than one?
Socrates @ 147
Yep, often wondered about whether Howard has a personal camera crew following him at all times. Then they bung it out free to the TV stations – a sort of video press release. He seems to bob up everywhere. His Propaganda Unit must be costing a fortune.
Be nice to have the system explained. How many operatives in his media unit? What does it cost?
I know the last Morgan poll was three whole days ago and is probably forgotten by now, so please delete this post if its covering old ground
However, on the 12th, Morgan also released his findings from a poll asking people to state thier major concerns if LNP or ALP was to win the election
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4223/.
Its interesting to note the biggest jump is issues of concern is for the LNP regarding thier handling of the economy if they are returned!!
A M 163. Touche! Can people please note there is definitely no ‘a’ in ‘definitely’.
A local campaign is worth 2%, once you’ve got them won over you just have to convince the other 49%!
Adam @ 155.
As one media commentator put it yesterday. This is election will be more like 150 by-elections.
Don’t under estimate the voter considering their local member first and the national campaign for their Senate vote.
An example would be Mal Brough in Longman. Everyone is writing him off but he is not unpopular as a local member.
I don’t believe Australia has quite evolved to Presidential style politice (but it sounds as though you do believe).
My point is the polling trend is encouraging but this labor win will be one by talikng one seat at a time. Universal swings mean nothing.
Finally, I am an ALP member but you could say that long ago I had DLP sympathy.
Didn’t Keating come up with some exotic tax policies in 1996? (can’t remember clearly, was quite young then)
The tax announcement is going to be irritating for Rudd – he can’t announce a tax policy until Treasury releases the updated Budget figures, which will be 10 days in to the campaign.
What makes it worse is that Howard can badger Rudd about tax policy with impunity on the debate, as he would already have released a tax policy whilst Labor wouldn’t have…
Derek Corbett Says: @ 167
{Be nice to have the system explained. How many operatives in his media unit? What does it cost?}
This should go some way th explaining it for you Derek. Look at it and weep. I know those people on Hospital waiting lists and those who can’t afford urgent attention to their teeth would.
{PRIME Minister John Howard’s team of spin doctors is costing taxpayers nearly $8.5 million a year – almost double the amount of three years ago.
The Sunday Telegraph reports that the Coalition has beefed up its team with 73 advisers now at its disposal, 15 more than in 2004.
The Federal Government is also employing 10 staff and spending an extra $1 million of taxpayers’ funds as part of a propaganda cadre to target Kevin Rudd.
The media advisers include those working in ministerial offices, the Cabinet policy unit and the government members’ secretariat. }
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22073660-2,00.html
Sorry about the typing errors @171. My fingers are keeping up with me.
112 New Australia – Ah, a message from the Liberal Party. That should change our minds.
paul k, heavy irony is a very cheap, unoriginal and tiresome form of argument. Either respond to my points or shut up.
Quite right, Paul K, behave yourself – immediately cease and desist from independent thought.
Looks like a “misinformation” campaign from the Labor bunker works well with the media pundits.
{Labor insiders agree the ALP may need to win as few as four Queensland seats but, more likely, eight or more.
The real difficulty for the Opposition Leader is that only two Coalition-held seats in his home state can be regarded as truly marginal – Bonner (0.5per cent) and Moreton (2.8per cent). }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586180-5014046,00.html
I am totally amazed at the sheer ignorance of the MSM political commentators when they are puzzle over why the Howard Govt is so on the nose – and not just a bit on the nose, a lot on the nose and for the whole year.
They totally discount the history of the govt and its cummulative effect on our feeling of what they are all about. I hate to repeat it but these issues do add up: Hicks, Iraq, AWB, Climate Change, Nuclear, Children Overboard, Detention Centres, promoting xenophobia and veiled racism, then their continual smear and blame tactics with everyone. AND the Howard, Costello etc rehtoric in support of these issues. Turned more and more people off over time.
Remember a poll earlier this year in which people thought the PM was dishonest/untrustworthy? Remember the total skepticism over the NT aboriginal invasion? These feelings/opinions are not held for without reason or in isolation, they are a symptom of what people think the Howard govt stands for and is really like.
Not one of thoses issues cost a minister his job or caused acceptance and appology of the Govt at the time – in fact it was all denials even when to the majority it was all BS.
Then on top of all this you add WorkChoices which when it worked its way into the understanding of the people confirmed in spades the nature of Howard and his crew.
I do not understand how the MSM can say this has been a good government? It has been a very bad govt for in addition to the above it has ignored climate change, kyoto, wasted 10 years of surpluses [just ask the Chief Economist of McQuarie bank - that is what he said two weeks ago]
The MSM are bessotted with Howard and Co and the economy. They think Howard arrogance and aggression in everything is successful governance. The economy most them already know belongs to Keating and Global boom and mining boom. Howard has been divisive, not cooperative – created intolerance, not harmony, traded on racism etc.
So what are they talking about, why their ignorance?
Have they become too close to the Govt? Are they afraid of the Govt? Is it the millions in advertising they are repaying or worried about losing, is it simply right-wing papers and journalists supporting their own kind?
It seems the people of Australia are smarter and more understanding than MSM journalists and papers.
To the MSM : the Howard Govt is on the nose because it has shown itself to be cynical, self-serving, unfair, unaccountable, irresponsible, dependant on Bush, arrogant, dishonest, deceitful, racist and now wasteful and harmful to ordinary Australians. It took a while, but it began to sink in.
This is exactly why the smear against Rudd and Labor actually helped them – the Govt were simply reaffirming their type and the public got to see public displays of the very things that turned them off the govt. ANY further smears this campaign, any fear attempts etc may actually have the same result if not done carefully.
Paul k, heavy irony is a cheap, unoriginal and tiresome form of debate. Either respond to my points with something intelligent or save your keystrokes.
Let Costello go for it. Labor will release its tax policy when it is good and ready and not before. Why should they?
why do my posts disappear then appear twice when i repose them?
paul k @ 102
The problem with your argument is the teams of Your Rights at Work campaigners have been in the marginals for the past 18 months. It’s too late to suddenly get “teams of libs” in them with 6 weeks to go.
Adam,
Giving orders now? Fine. Let’s say you are right and what happens in the marginals is irrelevant. The Libs can afford to lose 14 seats. Over that number some of the seats will be won or lost on less than a few hundred votes. What’s the bet the Libs are working on local issues to keep those few hundred votes away from Labor in key marginals.
If you are right we can all sit back and let Team Rudd do all the work and not worry about what the Libs are doing in the marginals. But if you are wrong?
But what would I know. I’m just “cheap, unoriginal and tiresome”. By the way how many Federal Elections have you helped win for the Labor Party?
So the Government wants to debate only on pay TV. Why haven’t they worked out all the details before now? Looks like a rerun of the Queensland state election where the wheels fell off on day one and the momentum was never recovered.
This from the other thread. If watcher is correct, then the mountain the Coalition has to climb is very steep indeed.
Watcher Says:
October 15th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
GO at 67, Labor don’t need to win Qld as such, they just need to do better. Even if the swing in Qld is less than 4% (& indeed even if this is accompanied by a swing of less than 3% in WA, SA, Vic, Tas & the NT) Labor can still gain sufficient seats to form government if they get a swing above 4% in NSW.
Of course, Labor can release its tax policy when they are ready – and they’d be foolish to release it before the Treasury figures come out.
BUT, this gives Howard a stick that he can beat Rudd over the head with for the next week or so, including the debate. What makes it more effective is that Rudd’s already made one gaffe in the area of tax and the MSM have been demanding a tax policy from Labor for the last month (making Howard’s stick that much more effective).
That said, Howard probably needs another dozen sticks to beat Rudd over the head with to win, so it’s not a major problem for Labor (at this stage…)
Gee the tories here just dont get it.
“It’s Workchoices, stupid”.
err costello ambushed himself last time on ALP tax policy.
He is heavily over-rated
I beleive his response was contained within that irony, Adam.
Btw, can someone explain to me why every betting market has Labor strong favourites to win Hasluck but a 50/50 chance to win Stirling?
As a NSWelshman, I have no idea what the difference is between those electorates.
Spiros @ 90
Agreed with just about all of what you said, except for this:
“This year has been one big constant 55:45 poll for Labor, give or take MoE. There’s no reason at all to expect that that will change during the campaign.”
By the same token, there’s no reason to expect it will stay the same, as people with absolutely no interest in politics but who are forced to vote, are compelled into bringing their minds to bear on who they are going to vote for.
The reason I think this will change (”The Narrowing”) is the view that the Australian people don’t actually want to punish the Libs, they just think it’s time for a change. The Australian economy is the big thing here – whatever the reasons, the economy is going along quite nicely, in most respects. Someone up above mentioned the baseball bat, a phrase coined by Wayne Goss but applied by the voters to Paul Keating. I’m not sure that Howard rubs the swinging voters (whoever they are) in quite the same way as Keating. On the other hand, Rudd clearly doesn’t scare the swinging voter, unlike say, Latham.
My personal view is that a nationwide swing of 8% is probably not going to happen . That would equate to ~1 in 6 ppl who voted coalition 2PP last time (ignoring deaths, immigration/emigration, and ppl turning 18), now voting 2PP for the ALP. I think Rudd will form government with about 80 seats. Say ~52-48 2PP. The Narrowing does not mean Rudd loses. It does make for a much more interesting campaign, however.
Socrates at 111
- interest rates – the announcement of any rise would be the day after Melbourne Cup day – 4 November. There will be no change to current rates, however.
- unemployment data was released late last week, it’s monthly data, so I spose the second week of November.
- Haneef – don’t know – the papers initiating the appeal are definitely filed. I doubt whether it would come on for hearing so quickly.
- the electoral allowance investigations are closed.
Misty at 116 – agreed. The question really is whether Latham was Howard’s Hewson. In my view, Keating was lucky to get Hewson (or really that the Libs couldn’t think of anyone more suitable) at an election that was eminently winnable for the coalition. cf. Latham v Howard in 2004?
And if people were sick of Howard already in 2004, but supported him as the least worst candidate for PM, then the proferring by the ALP of a mild mannered personality like Rudd, is very wise, and he’d have to really stuff up to lose. People who were sick of Howard in 2004 are doubtless more sick of him now. If there are very significant numbers of people who are in that position, and just will not countenance voting yet again for Howard, then the long-campaign-glass-jaw-anything-could-happen theory of politics won’t be enough to get the coalition across the line.
As I see it, this question goes to the very core of the soft support:hard support dichotomy underpinning the ALP’s very consistent and impressive 2pp polling figures.
Libs announcing Tax Cuts – I can’t hear the TV though…
Geez, some things never change do they? You Labor boys aren’t even in Government yet and you’re already fighting amongst yourselves.
Adam – Paul K – cool down! Please. You’re meant to be on the same team.
paul k – the Libs can’t afford to lose 14 seats. That would mean a loss of their majority and a reliance on independents who may/may not support them.
DLP @ 125
I understand.
The point I am making is that simply because the election has been called does not wipe the slate to a fifty/fifty contest from here on in. The polls (which are all we have to go on) have been too consistent. People want change. And I contest that many who do, are small ‘l’ liberals such as my wife. Nothing said now can shift this, for it will be seen merely for what it is: politics.
I don’t think it will tighten like the pundits profess. This is not like any other election. The country is economically sound, unemployment is low, people don’t necessarily dislike the direction we are headed… yet the polls are solidly for change.
Why?
Because they no longer represent who we are. Our weakest are threatened. We loathe arrogance. We despise bullsh*t. We hate liars. And are suspicious of those that crave power exclusively.
I suspect the marginals are indeed marginal but the rout will come from within Liberal’s own ranks. They are just as outraged as we are at the extreme right wing shift. The state polls that Possum alluded to on his site a month ago is in part, evidence of swings in the heartland.
I am not condoning complacency… but we should recognise the ground swell of opinion and trust the other half of thinking Australia to get it right.
The coalition will lose and because Rudd is a solid, pleasant and viable alternative I expect them to lose big.
My opinion lol.
paul, you made a psephological argument. I disagreed with it. You responded with a mixture of sarcasm, distortion of what I said and personal denigration. If that’s the way you conduct discussion, I won’t bother with you further.
Kevin Rudd has been all over the Coalition today. I am very impressed.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586664-12377,00.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/15/2059559.htm
He is also asking what would be stopping Howard putting nurses and fire-fighters on AWAs… good question.
Tony Abbott refuses to commit the government to taking over all public hospitals after being challenged by Labor.
Beautiful.
Paul k @ 185.
Well said.
I hope Adam remembers the 1998 ALP election loss with 50.98% of the TPP vote.
That loss by Labor was because the Coalition attacked/defended the seats that mattered.
Labor are in a similar position to 1998 (but with a better leader & a better chance) in so much as they need to gain a large number of seats. Therefore a national campaign, national vote and national swing won’t mean anything if the seats aren’t won.
Yay we have a Liberal candidate for Banks.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007seats/banks.shtml
The full deck at last, only two months after they said “all candidates will be announced next week.”
Boys & Girls:
Don’t forget to tune in to Four Corners on ABC TV at 8:30 tonight.
Exclusive Brethren special:
“Quentin McDermott reports on the covert political actions of a reclusive religious sect.â€
Must see TV.
New Australia@112, ummm i’m very much of the older retired generationand guess what? i’m wholeheartedly voting for Rudd!
Adam,
sarcasm: Guilty as charged but you’ve used it before as well.
distortion of what I said: Don’t believe I did but let’s split the difference and say I misunderstood.
personal denigration: No I did not.
However in the interests of harmony I apologise if I offended you. No offense was meant.
From the Milne article:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/yoursay/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_wrong_time_the_wrong_man/
“This reflects the context of Howard’s latest and ultimate self-assessment, when at the time of the APEC summit he rejected the view of the majority of his cabinet that he should stand aside in favour of Peter Costello. Howard will have a reckoning at the bar of history for this resolution.”
In a democracy, how does one reject the view of the majority? What is this saying about the democracy of the Liberal cabinet/party-room?
What a clown.
“That loss by Labor was because the Coalition attacked/defended the seats that mattered. ”
Er no it was one nation preferences – which no longer exist.
And a boor, Paul K.
New Australia @ # 112 argues that the only party fit to run the county is a “no-brainer†and suggest that the “experience†of current Government is the determining factor in determining any future government. This argument if taken to its logicl conclusion that there would never be a change of Government and ignores that the current Government should never have been elected because its members were either inexperienced in Government or had shown themselves to be incompetent in the running of Government.
New Australia also condemns Rudd as being unskilled in international relations ignoring the fact that Rudd is an experienced Diplomat and mixes well with the leaders of other nations as was clearly demonstrated at the recent APEC conference in Sydney.
New Australia has an interesting understanding of the Australian political landscape with his/her comment of “For those who do not have to live in a State run by Labour MPsâ€.
Is that not all of us?
What State or Territory do the Liberals run?
I don’t know much about Queensland politics but it would seem from the elections held in that State that most Queenslanders don’t agree with you assessment of the Labor Party’s management of that State.
The arguments that all the States have problems in providing the services that we all demand are correct. However, the way to solve these problems is that applications of funds to the problem. The only Government with the funds is the Federal Government that is sitting on a surplus in excess of $17B
Your comments on interest rates is a trifle misleading considering that the Treasure at the time of the highest interest rates in the last 40 years is non-other then the current PM see –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBQzSDx1lVk
What is “Waltz Sing Maltidaâ€? I would assume that you mean Waltzing Matilda but I am unsure what your argument is and how it is connected to “traditional aboriginal dance.â€
Just to conclude I am a pensioner and I have to say that the reason that I am as well of as I am is because of the superannuation reforms introduced by the Hawke/Keating Governments. This is not to say that the current Government has not helped. It has, but if it were not for the earlier Labor Governments the policies of the current Government would be worthless.
Coalition Tax “Policy” Yawn.
Looks like the “Bretheren” are well and truly getting into the spirit of things in this election.
{Two senior elders of the Exclusive Brethren sect have gained permanent access to Federal Parliament, as lobbyists, under the sponsorship of two Howard Government MPs.
The Age has discovered that Sydney-based elders Stephen Hales and Warwick John were issued lobbyists’ passes after being vouched for by former minister Danna Vale and the member for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, Michael Ferguson.
Mr Hales, a Sydney businessman, is the brother of Bruce D. Hales, who leads the world-wide sect of 40,000 devotees.
The Age has also confirmed the church has retained Liberal-connected public relations firm Jackson Wells Morris to provide them with political advice and deal with “hostile media”.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/two-mps-sponsor-brethren-lobbyists/2007/10/14/1192300599891.html
DLP, if you read what I said, I said “statewide swing.” Not the national swing, which usually conceals big variations among the states. Beazley lost in 1998 because he failed to get big swings in NSW and SA. I never said that local campaigns don’t matter – I said they matter less than many people, including most candidates, suppose. Good local campaigns may save a few seats on the margin, and in a very close election they may make the crucial difference. But they will not save a government which is facing statewide 2PP swings bigger than the swings needed to win the seats. In the face of a big statewide swing, the seats go down like dominoes.
ruawake @ 208.
Read the numbers again. I gave TPP but you are also highlighting my point.
This election needs to be one by Labor focussing on each seat not the lump sum
Libs announce 5 year tax cut plan:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587386-601,00.html
So are they spending all the surplus, or increasing the GST?
That’s the line Rudd should run.
Thanks paul, let’s move on.
Meanwhile, if anyone’s got five minutes of procrastination time, this is kinda funny…if perhaps a little premature. (Apologies to Robert Plant.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_zulGddP6o
That’s a pretty big move for an election that will supposedly only allow the ALP to win 4 seats.
Does Costello discuss the likely impact on interest rates of such a move?
# 215 – Gee, that should really keep downward pressure on interest rates, too.
At least John Stirton from the Age seems to be getting the message.
{With many Labor strategists believing they could not win without a stronger primary vote, Kim Beazley was replaced by Kevin Rudd as Labor leader in December 2006.
The response from voters was immediate. From a Nielsen average primary vote of 39 per cent in 2006, Labor’s primary vote has increased to an average of 48 per cent in 2007. This stronger primary vote has underpinned Labor’s two-party lead since the beginning of the year.
Over the past six months, support for the ALP has been remarkably stable: 57 per cent two-party and 48 per cent primary (weighted average of all published polls). While much media attention has been given to apparent shifts in voter sentiment, 94 per cent of the polls since April have been within the margin of error of the 57 per cent average. This suggests very little change in party support in that time.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/measuring-the-public-mood–do-numbers-ever-lie/2007/10/15/1192300611904.html
Woohoo, we got tax cuts! What a surprise!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587579-12377,00.html
Australia’s economic prosperity is the accumulated effect of the States economies and, the States all have Labor governments.
Since Keating/Hawke completed their economic reforms the economy does basically run on auto-pilot apart from RBA rate managent and how Govt accumulates and spends surpluses. Howard/Costello wasted the surpluses, so say ecnomists.
The Costello / Howard ecnomic success is a myth.
I don’t know if it is a good idea to bring out tax policies too soon. By the time you get to the election many would have forgotten the promises. AND it is too easy for the to be gradually picked apart by all and sundry.
Kina @ 181
Howard has given pretty massive tax cuts to high income earners. I’m pretty sure a lot of the yappers in the Media would have benefited from the cuts. I’m reminded of PK’s line about always backing self-interest.
Swing Lowe 193
Hasluck: Liberal member hasn’t done much in the last 3 years and his campaign is luck-lustre. Looks like they have given up. ALP candidate is known to the voters and has been out and about a lot.
Stirling: Liberal member has been putting up large number of posters and adverts saying he has been working hard on local issues. I think more money is being spent here by them for some reason. ALP has a strong candidate who is also campaigning hard. The punters seem to rate this as more of an even battle.
June 2007 Westpoll put the coalition very slightly ahead in both but more so in Stirling.
Speaking of loose lips, Costello did it not only once but twice in the last month. He blew it in Parliament the last sitting day in September by telling people that there would be no more sitting days. He blew it the second time at the AFL GF breakfast by telling people that the election would be on the 24th of November. And this is the future of the Libs leadership? They will have to start at square one after this election because *IF* Costello still has a seat to talk about, the party wouldn’t elect him, his poll numbers are already horrid and that is no secret, it is a fact
. It sure will be interesting to see how much of the “team” factor that the Libs actually use this goround between now and 24 November 
Exactly Kina, you have to wonder how desperate they are to grab attention and momentum at the start of the campaign to get them rolling. This is not a first week campaign move.
.
.
Derek,
Even Boors like me get to vote and get a say. Like it or not.
The leading paragraphs from Stirton’s article.
{THE Labor Party goes into this election having been in front on a two-party preferred basis in every national poll taken since November 2006.
That’s 80 straight polls (and almost 95,000 interviews) from Nielsen, Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy with the Coalition behind. In the most recent Nielsen Poll (4-6 October) Labor was ahead of the Coalition by 56 per cent to 44 per cent.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/measuring-the-public-mood–do-numbers-ever-lie/2007/10/15/1192300611904.html
Good point, I think it shows how desperate the government is. They know they need to make big gains in the first week or two. If they don’t, then the last month of the campaign is meaningless.
DLP @ 2001
1998 was an abberation. Labor’s 2PP was boosted when it got lots of one nation preferences in safe coalition seats, but not enough to win those seats.
Labor’s majority 2PP in that election was very artificial.
Of course, in other elections the party with a majority of the 2PP has not won the election because it just fell short in a few marginals but all those elections were very close in 2PP terms.
You get 52%+ of the vote, you win easily. You get 55% of the vote, you win in a landslide. When the swing is on, when the tectonic plates move, it doesn’t matter how good local members are, they are out of there.
Tax Cuts? More like the ‘fistfull of Dollars’ tax cuts from when Howard was Treasurer in the Fraser Government – non core promises, heavily advertised and we are still waiting for Howard to deliver them.
Adam @ 213
For the record this was the TPP swing to the ALP in the 1998 election
NSW: 4.10
Vic: 3.23
Qld: 7.17
WA: 5.46
SA: 4.15
Tas: 5.74
NT: 1.92
ACT: – 1.36
The State picture (ie swings) still didn’t translate into seats won.
Look, it is only my view but I still believe in campaigning at the seat level
There have been several cases of bigger-than-expected swings electing people who thought they were token candidates in unwinnable seats, including some who didn’t want to be MPs and did almost no campaigning. One was Jane Hill in Frankston in Vic in 1982 (she had to abandon her nursing training, and had only run on the assurance that she couldn’t win). Another was a guy in Qld in 1989 whose name I forget, who was so horrified at being elected that he ran away to NSW – Goss had to go and find him and get him to resign.
“Treasurer Peter Costello has announced five years of progressive reductions of income tax that will see the current tax system eventually reduced to four tax brackets — 15, 30, 35 and 40 cents in the dollar.
The changes, to be introduced gradually, will see the tax threshholds for lower income earners increased and the reduction of the percentage of tax paid in the top two tax categories — currently 40 and 45 percent.”
–>** ANYTHING **
The tax cuts will certainly get the core/non-core promise treatment.
I believe they will for the most part be non-core or more likely and, I can see it now, Howard weasle words putting them out to 7/8/9 years etc.
The next thing they will do is walk around with cash buying votes with IOUs that they won’t honour.
Labor’s landslide defeat in the 1977 election is often attributed to Gough Whitlam asking the voters to forego the tax cuts offered them Malcolm Fraser, in exchange for more spending. That might have been a factor but Labor was so on the nose then that they would have got blasted out of the water regardless.
One of the promises that Treasurer Howard made in that campaign was to index income tax thresholds, a promise he promptly broke in the next budget.
That’s a bold move by the government to release that now. People aren’t tuned in yet. Also I think that’s all they’re going to be able to promote. I’m still waiting for the post budget bounce due to the tax cuts.
I wonder if the government plans for a change in the business taxes, which is what is really filling the government coffers.
Hey there Paul k (227) – I think Derek was agreeing with you about Tony Abbott, and extending your description of him.
I’m not a big fan of tax cuts – they’re ‘easy’ policies, really. And I think there are national programmes that need the funding.
not cash, just IOUs.
Holy Hell – $30 billion on the first day of the campaign? Costello must be having conniptions over this!!
Sadly, this will play well in the MSM. Would be interesting if the RBA governor came out and said it was lunacy on the interest rates front.
Michelle Grattan asked a question (could not hear it) and Howard and Costello stood there with shocked looks on their faces for a good 10 seconds without saying a word.
Or on checking, perhaps I was wrong. I’ll get my coat…
Josh 194 – how can you be sure that interest rates won’t rise on 7 Nov? Have you polled the members of the RBA board? The value of the Oz dollar indicates that the markets have priced in a rise.
The Coalition and the MSM will now spend the next few weeks hounding the ALP for their tax policy. This has been a weak spot for Rudd and is why the Libs have begun the campaign on it.
I can see the headlines now:
Tax Cut interest Rates to Kill Growth – economists warn……
Scorpio @ 212
That’s disturbing, but doesn’t surprise me. Heard this morning on ABC radio that the EB are bringing in bags of money from the US. Illegal imports, customs involved? Four Corners has it, apparently.
Howard didn’t release his tax policies until late in the 1996 election.
Vague (doesn’t kick in fully till until 2012 – that’s one year before the election after the election after this one) and hugely expensive.
Sound familiar?
These tax cuts are the Medicare Gold of the 2007 campaign.
Alex, Howard and Costello has also factored in a rate rise and so decided to go for broke and will now spend spend spend
Did we get an answer whether these ‘tax cuts’ are core or non core?
Rudd’s line could be “No one believed Howard when he promised not to introduce a GST, why should anyone believe he will deliver these tax cuts when he is no longer the prime minister?”
I guess people will have more money to put into their mortgages. This is going to put significant inflationary pressure on the economy. It should go down well as a populist policy.
Alan Kohler on why Howard and Costello are rubbish economic managers, and Rudd would be better.
Worth reading in full! From Crikey.
“The reason I think Kevin Rudd and the ALP will be better for investors is not part of the election campaign, and probably won’t be: they are likely to be better managers of prosperity than John Howard.
Howard has squandered the booming budget surpluses of recent years on re-election rather than the national infrastructure. There have been huge transfers to middle class welfare designed to attract votes and belated, miserly, spending on national infrastructure.
The centrepiece of the Government’s budget surplus strategy – the Future Fund – is, in my view, largely pointless. There is no problem meeting public service pensions out of current revenue and they are now in rundown so the problem is not growing.
Meanwhile, the conventional wisdom that the conservatives are, in general, better for shares than the Labor Party was exploded by Bob Hawke: equity strategists have studied the performance of the market during various shades of Australian Government in the past but there is no pattern, at least not one you could discern in the short term.
Political parties have been victims and beneficiaries of the cycle rather than creators of it. That includes Paul Keating, who always talked about having his “hands on the leversâ€.
The hands on the levers mostly had an effect on the sharemarket only after the various lever pullers were gone (with the possible exception of Gough Whitlam perhaps, although the mid-seventies bear market was caused by the Yom Kippur war and oil shock of 1972, not the election in the same year).
Keating left three important legacies that affected the sharemarket after he went: the creation of mandatory super, which is still having a huge impact on the stockmarket today; the introduction of enterprise bargaining, which began an improvement in productivity that produced a generational shift in share of GDP from labour to capital; and raising interest rates to 17% before the 1990/91.
I used to think, and wrote several times, that the 1990/91 recession was a mistake, and not “a recession we had to haveâ€. But I have since changed my mind.
That recession, combined with enterprise bargaining, broke the cycle of inflation expectations in Australia and has contributed to the lack of extreme boom/bust cycles and the 16-year expansion since.
But it was only a contributing factor. The most important foundation of the long boom has been globalisation and the growth of China and India, driving down labour costs around the world and underpinning low inflation across the globe.
Now we are contemplating a change of Government after four years of stockmarket boom and 16 years of economic growth.
On the basis of our boom/bust history, you would say this is a bad election to win because things are bound to turn nasty soon. Kevin Rudd, on this basis, will preside over a recession and stockmarket bust and then be tossed out at the next election in favour of a still quite young Peter Costello.
Actually I don’t believe that for a minute. In my view this is as good an election to win as 1996. “
Re 234,
The end of my post got cut off, don’t know why.
What I was going to say was in essence this – anything that takes away money from the lower income earners at the expense of giving more money to higher income earners will not fly with the electorate and Rudd will be all over this like a wet blanket. Labor will release their policy at the right time (after the treasury numbers come out I think someone else said 10 days into the campaign?). Any policies put out by Rudd will be carefully thought out to make sure that the people struggling to make ends meet are taken care of. Traditional Liberal policy – feed the rich at the expense of the poor. A more sane policy would be one where those who could afford more taxes are given more and the increases used to benefit the lower income earners. Robin Hood didn’t have such a bad plan all those years ago. Peter Costello actually does a mean Sherrif of Nottingham impersonation
.
So is there going to be any money for infrastructure, health and education? Is this the ‘fire sale we had to have’?
Those cuts – should they ever actually occur – are socially irresponsible.
(1) The $1200 initial windfall will put further stress on inflation next year, thereby putting further stress on rates.
(2) They will rob this country of the infrastructure it needs to prosper into the future and the ability to maintain an adequate level of services and welfare for an increasingly ageing population. Throw in a narrowing tax base because of generational size differences and you have a catastrophe.
Costello has quite recently expressed concern about the level of tax cuts he has presided over, and now they do this?!
There policy over the last 10 years has been that tax cuts for short term political gain are more important than infrastructure investment to help expand the economy.
Nothing has changed.
Kina says
{Howard didn’t release his tax policies until late in the 1996 election.}
True, and even when he did they were a complete lie
Alex McDonnel at 243
Consider it a (less than) bold prediction.
The status of the Australian economy is such that a rise is quite possibly justified. A rise in December or early next year is highly likely. But I think the RBA wants to wait and ensure that the US economy does not go into a downturn on the back of this subprime stuff, before raising rates (raising rates at the doorstep of a souring global economy is obviously undesirable).
The crucial US economic performance data comes out in mid-late November. The RBA will wait for the December meeting rather than pulling the trigger in November.
I wonder when David Speers will make his run for the Liberal leadership? His gushing after Costello’s announcement almost made me sick. “Howard and costello are so good together. We should see more of it”. Please – easy stomach.
New Australia @ 112 = Old Australia. You’ve merely been enjoying the benefits of Keatings “J” curve for the last decade so just go back to sleep.
Paul K @ 227
I DO like it, Paul. It is your right. And I will defend that right … etc. Ok, goodnight.
What the heck. More silliness:
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=32404
Check this photo, particularly the backing behing Howard and Costello: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/15/2059904.htm
Is that the same colour and font as Rudds ‘New Leadership’ malarkey from yesterday?
Speers said himself any tax cuts won’t take effect for two years. Some plan.
The Liberal tax policy is political madness. I don’t doubt for one minute that they will do it – delivery tax cuts to high income earners is what they have consistently done for many years.
But aren’t they trying to win over swinging voters in marginal seats???? How many in that category earn over $180,000 per year?? The changes to the brackets are not significant and don’t even arrive in people’s pockets for another 20 months – ages away. Yet more favouring of the wealthy at the expense of the ordinary worker – is this really the image that they want to be projecting? And this is at the time when they are being accused of being out of touch, an attach that is now even more potent. Dumb politics.
They should have cut the 30% rate to 28% – wouldn’t surprise me if this is what the ALP does.
If anyone believes that Costello has been a good economic manager, they should read the cover story in ‘Monthly’ magazine. OK, it a bit of a leftie rag, but the author (Charlton?) makes a well argued case. The Alan Kohler remarks above follow the same theme. In a nutshell, Howard and Costello have been incredibly lucky to be in charge of a burgeoning economy, no credit to them but much to Keating and China.
John, unless the votes they’re trying to win back are in their safe seats.
Paul at comment 102 writes:
“This election will be won and lost in the marginals, not in the opinion polls…”
Actually, Paul, I think you will find that it will be won and lost in a number of hitherto “safe” Liberal seats on the 5% to 10% margin. The polls have certainly shown considerable movement here and Possum’s site has some interesting analysis on the topic.
Certainly the Libs have now placed such seats in the “at risk” basket, which gives you some idea of the dynamic at work. The opinion polls you think irrelevant have certainly scarred the pants off them.
So, althoiugh the marginals will certainly move, the real massacre is gonna come elsewhere. Either that, or the 70 or so opinion polls we’ve had since January are complete lies.
Ruawake,
I know you are in QLD. How close are you to Fadden? I was through that area on holidays last week. I know that the current member is retiring and thus both the Lib and Labor candidates are new. The Labor guy seems pretty popular up there from what I could gather by reading local papers and seeing more than one billboard teaming his and Rudd’s picture. {I saw more ads for Labor in Fadden than the Libs} Any chance that Fadden will be picked up by Labor?
That is why Rudd would be foolish to accept Speers as moderator in a debate, he is a lib hack.
Costello has gone mad with money
EVERYTHING MUST GO!
What will they sell off to pay for this?
@ 202 Adam Says:
Never seen a pack with 150 Jokers before.
I liked the bit at the end about Costello yellow.
http://media.smh.com.au/?rid=32404
Julie
I am on the Sunny Coast, Fairfax. I very much doubt Fadden would fall to Labor. It is new money canal block country.
Re 275,
Thanks ruawake
…. was just curious because the odds for Labor there are tighter by heaps than the other seats in the general GC area so it seemed logical to assume that meant they might be close in that seat.
Labor had a primary vote of 28% in Fadden last election. David Jull would end up in the loony bin if he lost.
Pancho 2:32pm
Re the photo in the article linked to:
I think the two men standing side by side is a bad look. It’s just not leader-like. People understand a leader accompanied by a relevant minister when making an announcement but the pecking order is always clear. But two co-leaders? Seriously, it makes me squirm.
Here’s predicting it will cost votes.
From Perth Now Comments.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/comments/0,21590,22580836-948,00.html
ruawake, you can be our Sunshine Coast correspondent. Is Caroline Hutchinson, the independent running in Fisher, a serious candidate? Is Slipper in trouble? Is Brough really as popular in Longman as is being suggested?
ruawake 277 – are you awake? David Jull has resigned and will not be contesting Fadden this time.
Moneybags of Perth may be one thing but the Governor of the Reserve Bank might not take so kindly to this sort of fiscal irresponsibility.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/tax-bombshell-40-cents-in-dollar-top.html
Frank Calabrese, that just sounds like a standard Liberal Party stooge line. Just about anytime you read an “Of course… what was I thinking… now I’m voting Liberal” comment you know it’s a stooge.
Elaine Nile is running for the Senate. She must be 70ish and not very bright as I recall.
As in Mrs Elaine Fred Nile, Adam? Could be the next Senator Lady Flo Bjelke-Peterson.
# 284 – Great to look at though, Adam.
Now we’re talking! Mr Howard and his brilliant treasure, Mr Peter Costelleons, have surely cooked Rudd’s goose with this never-ever tax cut for the well-off and creamy. Those losers out there living on bread and dripping will applaud this bold, decisive move and vote with a strong, black pen. They will look to the heavens, kneel, and chant: “Prey gods … my troubles will be over ..”
yes she is The Hon Mrs Rev Fred. I don’t think there’s much danger of her being elected. She’s No 2 on the CDP Senate ticket behind Pastor Paul Green, who appears to be campaigning in a dinner jacket. Tres chic.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/senate1.shtml
Alex McDonnel
He would still end up in the loony bin.
Adam
Caroline Hutchinson is popular, she has done lots of good things for charities, she was considering joining the ALP but decided to run as an independent, I would assume her preferences will go, very much, to Labor.
I am seeing lots of “Give Slipper the Boot” car stickers in Maroochydore.
I have been saying for months that Brough will lose Longman.
I never worried about WorkChoices, Hicks and Children Overboard but now with these tax cuts – well I was always going to vote Liberal now – will vote Labor for sure now. The Govt doing silly tax cuts show they cant be trusted.
The tax cuts are VERY VERY backloaded…..
Hi all….
Not meaning to be a wet-blanket but this tax cut seems to being received remarkably well by the MSM.
And i hasten to add that the average person hears ‘tax cut’ and thinks ‘brilliant’. I’d like to think they think ‘irresponsible’, ‘interest rates’ and ‘lack of services’ but i’m not sure they will.
Anyone care to convince me otherwise?
Anyone know when/where the state details of the latest newspoll are?
Jull is a very sick man so let’s not be too nasty about him.
What are the chances that Hutchinson will outpoll Labor and win on Labor preferences?
Just thought I’d paste a link to this online webpoll by The Oz: http://uvote.coredata.com.au/
Completely unscientific, of course, but potentially interesting as a guide to how out of touch the GG is with its own readers. Check out its chamber graphic suggesting: ALP with 130 seats, Coalition with 12, Greens with 3 and a fair few undecided
.
Yo ho ho, the last budget was trumpeted as masterclass by the GG too, but no bounce from voters moving away from Howard was seen.
Of course the MSM were bound to plaster it everywhere.
I wonder what it will do to rates?
And, is it really funded? I can bet that is an escape hatch for a later back down.
I think the time delay of two years might dampen it.
I think what it boils down to is ‘possible tax cuts in the future’ – if funding stands up. So they are banking on $34 billion in more surpluses and the ongoing cost and funding?
I hate this blatant bribery. Money, money, money! It always turns my stomach when people get greedy. Years ago my father told me that we shouldn’t look at what governments could do for us, because we’d be allright financially no matter who was in govt. We’d always be able to make a living. He thought we should look at what the government was doing for the poorest people who really needed help.
Apparently, he must have been crazy!!
(And he was a small businessperson).
Yo ho ho, tax cuts seem to be met with a yawn, nowadays. We’ll see whether tax cuts x 5 have any different effect.
“What are the chances that Hutchinson will outpoll Labor and win on Labor preferences?”
Zero.
Yo ho ho, I sense a long term wedge…an attempt to get some traction with tax cuts, and if Labor supports them, then chances are interest rates will keep climbing under them if they win power.
I see no real great value here. Surely Stevens will come out and slap this down. And the same folks whose eyes light up when they hear ‘tax cut’ are crestfallen when they hear ‘rate rise’.
I think that the likely rise on 6-7 November will be a counterpoint to any huga announcements like this. Howard is still seeming like a fish out of water.
Delayed tax cuts even more of a yawn once it is understood.
Costello’s big budget cuts didn’t seem to help at all.
Nice to get a firm opinion
Re the Australian’s readers’ poll: The day Labor polls 82% in Parkes will be the day Osama bin Laden is elected Mayor of New York.
I wonder if Howard is simply inventing future money that is not really going to come just so he can spend us more into oblivion.
Pete from Perth @295, I’d certainly like to see the outcome from the Oz’s poll. Now THAT would be fabulous!!!
the “tax announcement” is quite interesting for a few reasons
1.originally part of ‘pm costellos” new deal budget drafted back in feb/march as part of the aborted challenge
2.the “special interest sectors”eg carers oldies etc were given a sweetener in budget -this too was part of the new deal budget
3.still to go are the “battlers” who besides the $1000 sweetener originally prposed under new deal will also be see spending blitzes on core infrastructure eg health ,education etc
the surprising thing is that in its “original” form back in march (where all the pieces were combined into one helluva nation building package ) “pm costello” would had a fair to even chance of winning
now with this ‘chooks breakfast” approach the impact and “theme” will be lost and only the “moneybags” element will latch on to it
out in voterland -lead balloon
A bit confused.
Tim Colebatch in The Age today said that the Coalition vote was ‘holding firmer than in any state except W.A’.
Apparently this came out of the last Neilson, which was 56/44 nationally, with no state by state figures, at least none that I saw. What’s going on here?
LOL. Then Howard should promise $100b and Stevens can say, “oh that’s ok because 80 of it doesn’t actually exist” and everyone’s happy.
This is another attempt at cause a big jolt, like Howard’s lame ‘calytons’ reconciliation announcement.
When do they start? Is it 20 months some said?
The tax cuts aren’t that big a deal.
The government is pretty much just pre-announcing the next 5 years of tax cuts which they usually announce on budget night each year anyway.
Rudd just needs to match the cuts, talk about massive surpluses the last few years while people struggle so why weren’t these cuts brought forward etc. Then he can get back to talking about his investment in infrastructure and education and how it will build extra capacity in the economy and lessen the chance of interest rises.
Tim Colebatch said the coalition vote was firm in Victoria.
Costello puts out his hugely generous tax cut policy then announces that GDP has exceeded projections by .5% for 07/08. An interest rate rise on Melbourne Cup day is virtually a dead cert.
Seems to me that it is Howard in need of L Plates, after so long being chauffered about.
Lets hope Labor don’t fall for ‘metooism’. This is a big chance to exhibit fiscal responsibility and pull the rug from under a coalition platform. The State’s infrastructure and low income earners should be the focus of ALP policy. Let the ‘buying our vote’ tag and ‘clever’ stick to libs. In my view they’ve panicked.
“What are the chances that Hutchinson will outpoll Labor and win on Labor preferences?”
Labor ought to run dead in this seat to try to get Hutchinson up. Might as well give it a shot.
Firm compared to what…? Last Newspoll? Last election? 20% swings in NSW?
KT, he said the Coalition vote in Vic was the second most ‘firm’ after WA. Apparently this came out of Neilson, but seems utter nonsense to me! Haven’t the polls been fantastic for the ALP in Victoria?
Well Rudd can announce the next 6 years in tax cuts ahead of time just to get the bigger figure.
But if that is the case then it is no big deal – easy to deal with.
So it really was just a stunt for the big headline – but somewhat loses effect when they say it is all delayed. Tax cuts on the never never.
Can anyone see the irony is this quote from Howard?
Wasn’t the first home buyer’s grant supposed to help if housing affordability? Didn’t that just raise the cost of houses?
Yeah but Kina, Rudd has run on the fact that he is a fiscal conservative and promised budget surpluses. People have been saying what are your policies? Here’s his chance to open a huge gap without risk.
Treasury normally releases updated budget forecasts 10 days after the election is called, they will probably be the same as the figures released today.
All Rudd has to do is say he is waiting for the “official” pre election figures to be released.
The ABC radio news is leading with “some economists” say the tax cuts are inflationary and will lead to higher inflation.
Oops Interest Rates.
Gecko (314) – I agree that the libs have probably panicked but when it comes to big election bribes I’m a “me too” man. JWH perfected the hip pocket technique way back in the 1970’s – remember the fist full of dollars ads – and hasn’t stopped since.
I say if the money is there to spend – and Howard tells us it is, so he can’t accuse Labor of overspending – why take the risk of not spending it. Rudd can run the line that it’s the people’s money after all and because Howard has been overtaxing them they are entitled to it back. As for fiscal responsibility, I just don’t think the great unwashed are that sophisticated. Most of them wouldn’t know what the term meant.
Howard and Costello have not only promised next years tax cuts but the next two government’s tax cuts.
I bet that these cuts are ‘aspirational’
Kina @ 290
I’m with you. Who gives a flying whatnot about kiddies having a nice swim? But tax cuts! That’s it! I’m switching my vote. It’s all right by me to fiddle with the nation’s conscience, but to put pressure on interest rates stikes me as treason.
From a Liberal tactical point of view though, surely (win or lose) they want Rudd spending like a drunken Howard? Gives them ammo against him in this campaign, and if they lose, upward pressure on rates when they’d likely be on upwards cycle anyway? Enough of a reason for some restraint perhaps?
Ah, tax cuts. This is the bit where good policy sense and a nuanced argument are meant to prevail over populism and greed, and let’s face it, sheer bloody stupidity and ignorance. Will this happen? Not if past elections are anything to go by.
Maybe not treason but certain to be a path to political suicide which is something the Tories seem to be perfecting. By the end of a six week campaign at this rate the job will be complete.
Oh, how the MSM and the government would have howled about reckless spending if Labor had released a tax policy like this.
Here’s a good opportunity for Rudd to paint the government as desperate to buy votes.
The best move for Rudd would be to state they will be giving tax cuts in the next Budget and any further Budget where they can be made responsibly. However, they will not make blanket commitments on the eve of the election as a cynical attempt to buy votes.
Lots of people like having their vote bought. Desperately or not.
The splash on The Age website is:
‘The Team’ cuts $34b tax
They’ve all gone completely potty.
That’s a good angle, LTEP 330. Though tax cuts that don’t sound like ‘half a sandwich and a drink’ type cuts are hideously expensive. It will erode the money they have for infrastructure promises. Might have to do it however.
Rudd should try to spend close to the same amount of money as Howard on tax cuts – however, he should structure it differently.
I’m betting they’re going to put more incentives in for R+D, such as a 125% tax rebate for anyone setting up a biotech company in Australia (or something like that).
I would LOVE to see the reaction of business if he dropped the corporate tax rate to 29% (from its current rate of 30%) – how would Peter Hendy deal with that one? But, of course, he won’t do this (probably) and will do something similar in structure to Howard – I guess something he could do would be to eliminate the 40% tax bracket and have a massive 30% bracket (not sure how much that would cost)
Alex McDonnel at 312
Are you suggesting that the coalition’s proposal to cut tax in 2009 will affect inflation and therefore interest rates now?
Anyway, I’m sure the rate rise won’t happen in November. But the guide will be the September quarter CPI figures released 24 October. If the CPI for the quarter is in excess of 1.0% – then a rate rise is at least a possibility in November. Below that, and there’s no realistic likelihood.
Perhaps Costello should have called 911 to help him with his maths.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHvDTTPW4z8
Libs announcing tax cuts again! Yehhaa! Have to agree with a previous poster that it will cause some probs for the ALP early in the campaign. They really should wait for treasury to come out with data before releasing their own.
Still, its pretty obvious that this is yet another way that the Libs are using the advantage of incumbency to play politics. They would have had access to everything from treasury for weeks now i think, and since people are already generally annoyed that they have been spending so many tax dollars on advertising (another advantage of incumbency) that may resonate and give the ALP some breathing room on this.
Still, its a risky strategy given that the RBA will be making a decision on interest rates before the poll, and tax cuts are something that are seen by many to inflationary. If the ALP start rolling out a “fist full of dollars” response (tapping into Howard’s time as the 22% treasurer), and can make a case that previous rounds of tax cuts have had an inflationary effect, then the crew of the good ship Rattus may regret this.
Sorry Captain Wacky Rattus, my vote isn’t for sale this year. Try again.
Howard admits that AWAs cut wages:
“We have an industrial relations system that in fact contains wage pressure,” Mr Howard said.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587386-601,00.html
Darn @323
No doubt you have a point with a minority. But even the ‘great unwashed’ (he said smelling his armpits) understand we have problems with water, roads, hospitals, schools, house affordability, food prices and fuel.
All year we have heard Howard described as being slippery and clever… spending our money recklessly for his own ends… this is a real chance to make it stick with his own wedge. With 30 billion of promised tax cuts now to play with, how can it not fall into the hands of labor who want to deliver infrastructure and state fiscal reform.
I smell a trap, and feel labor would be wise to forget metooism now we are in the campaign and forge ahead. lol
Josh @ 335,
Gittins says that the market is currently rating the likelihood of an interest rate rise in November at 50%.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/pm-plays-chicken-with-reserve-board/2007/10/14/1192300601527.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
I also note that the futures market has increased their expectations of an increase in interest rates after the news came out regarding a projected increase in GDP in 07/08. (Compare the Open price with current bid and ask prices for the 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate)
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/delayed_futures.htm
So I would think that there’s probably a better than 50/50 chance of rates going up in November. The key determining factor will be, of course, the September quarter CPI figures – if it’s in excess of 1%, the November rate rise will become a virtual certainty (assuming Stevens has the cojones to pull the trigger in an election campaign)
No, if you cut taxes then people will be able to donate towards the construction of desalination plants and wind farms!
The government now has nothing left to spend. By their own admission they are leaving the budget in surplus by just 1% of GDP for the next 5 years.
#335.
You haven’t been listening as closely as I have to Mr Stevens.
A 0.9 CPI would lead to a Nov rate hike. Even a 0.8 makes it half a chance. Haven’t you seen the recent Employment, Retail Sales and Credit figures?
To be honest, the current pricing is already 50/50.
I personally think that the Dec hike is more likely, but Nov is still a very real chance.
And …
“One of the things that helps contain wage increases … is a more flexible industrial relations system.”
Swing low @334
that’s a much better idea.
I don’t agree with significant tax cuts, hence this is the Coalitions’ vision.
What they are doing is taking from one hand and giving it back.. interest rate rises, workchoices and spending cuts and giving you a tax cut ridiclous..
What does concern me is that Howard is running the agenda at present.. and this is a significant policy announcement on day one…
Rudd if he has tax cuts should be a more modest and suggest that you can have a tax cut without workchoices, with better hospitals and an education system and lower interest rates..
Rudd should respond by saying that this is why interest rates got to 22% under a Howard Treasury…
The Govt is spinning a headline benefit for part-time ‘working mums’ through an increase in the low-income tax offset: by July 2010 you’ll pay no tax if you earn $16,000. But the headlines don’t mention the changes for high income earners. Let’s do a quick comparison.
‘Part-time mum’ earning $16,000 currently pays $750pa tax and from 1 July 2010 will pay nothing – $750 gained. That’s good.
Average wage earner (no overtime) getting $56680pa currently pays $11604 tax – will reduce to $10554 from 2010, saving $1050pa. I guess that’s fair.
John Howard gets paid $357,656 – that’s the cash and excludes the accommodation, meals and travel in his ‘package’. Tax on that is currently $140,545.20 and would be $129,165.52 from 2010. A benefit of $11,379.68pa.
Sol Trujillo was paid $11.7 million last year. He probably doesn’t pay income tax on all of that, but if he did it would currently be $5,244,600. From 2010 he’d pay $4,892,950 – saving $351,650pa.
So – John Howard proposes to give himself 15 times what the ‘part-time mum’ gets and 11 times what the average wage earner gets.
Sol Trujillo would get 468 times the ‘mum’ benefit and 334 times the average wage earner’s.
Presumably Dick Pratt stands to get even more.
Seem as reasonable to you as it does to me?
As long as Kevin doesn’t set up an inquiry into tax rates…….
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22588490-29277,00.html
the reply..
cool, calm collected.
Notice the last comment on inflation and interest rates…
Gecko – Labor won’t make the same mistake twice. Not even at your encouragement.
They will have targeted tax cuts as well. If what the TurningWorm said is right, that this is just the next 5 years usual tax cuts announced now then, it is not such a big deal – as you always can have many excuses to not proceed later if the economics change – as Howard well knows.
It is an ‘all things being equal’ promise on the never never.
Labor would have been developing their plan very carefully and now that the Govt has shown their hand it gives them additional room to move.
Their policy will come closer to the election no doubt, for greater effect.
Shows on
Donate to wind farms? That doesn’t sound like a reliable investment structure.
I still think labor should not follow similar tax cuts and create their own fiscal certainty. 1% of GDP is even less when the boom stops. Rudd can steal the march on Howard and it has been handed on a plate.
Whatever the merits of the tax cuts, the one thing that they have done is delivered Day 1 of the campaign to the government (unless Labor announces something later on – looks unlikely atm).
I’m assuming this is all part of the Coalition’s tactics to get some sort of momentum in the campaign – they’ve spent the last 6 months talking about “The Narrowing” happening once the election had been called – if it didn’t happen, any cause of optimism they had would be gone and the stench of the inevitability of defeat would start to hang around them.
Why not wind farms.. and solar energy, Australia has to wake up and realise coal is not the answer and that world is hotting up… and we as a country must lead by example.. We have the land resources and wind and sun good investment strategy to me for the future instead of greedy handouts to the wealthy with tax cuts…
The slanging match on online blogs has become more nasty and vitriolic against Rudd since the election has been called (the news limited ones in particular). I am somewhat taken aback by their venom. Although I am not surprised if Lib staffers or Young Libs are doing this: there is a lot at stake if they lose. As someone pointed out earlier in the year, Campbell Newman will be the highest-ranked Liberal in office anywhere! Not only that, but wallowing in irrelevancy for at least two terms must be too beastly for them to contemplate. They just look at their state oppositions to realise the implications of defeat.
But one has to admit: the use of “Krudd”, “twerp” etc etc is a little childish. The rusted-ons that do this sound so whiny at the prospect of a Labor government.
SL @ 352 – I read a similar analysis on Possum’s site – I think it’s right. I mean, after months of “wait for the polls to narrow come the election”, if it didn’t happen, what would they be left with?
Is there any ongoing coverage of the press conference? From reading a number of sites it seems the press asked some pretty cynical questions. Any word on what the question was which Michelle Grattan asked and left Howard and Costello quiet for about 15 seconds before they answered it?
The campaign worries me as a Labor supporter.. because the Labor party has alot of dills amongst its campaign team… Unfortunately the headlines in the papers tomorrow will 34 billion tax handback or something similar and the hard earned will like it…
Don’t like such superficial grab bags but it works and our media laps it up…
Swing Lowe
I agree the Coalition have started with a bang on day one, a $34 billion “3 year plan and two year goal”.
They need momentum sure, but they have they used their heavy artillery too soon?
They have resurrected the interest rate “bogey” on day one. Which focuses on “who do you trust” this cuts deep with people who are stuggling.
Huge election bribe on Day 1 to prime the pump of The Narrowing. There’ll be some nervous nellies awaiting the following opinion polling. And if the polling doesn’t oblige…
IMHO, if the data says rates should rise, the RBA will have no choice, much as they might like to avoid the political fray. If they were seen to be avoiding a change in policy for political reasons, they could kiss goodbye to 20 years of hard work building their inflation-fighting credentials.
6 week campaign – the LNP wants to force the Labor’s tax policy out so it wont have so much effect closer to election day.
In 1 week this policy will be mostly forgotten – people will remember the promise of some future tax cut. In 5 weeks time? AND if economists start coming out with cries of inflation, interest rate etc…then leave them clear air.
The Govt has gone for a jolt to get a narrowing and hope to flush out Labor. Labor needs to create a little bit of noise on something else and get some air time.
If they are smart they can agree with the concept and criticise the implementation.
I know what Glen Stevens has said, and I know the economy is going along very strongly and I maintain my position. As I said earlier, a bold prediction…
Seriously though, I don’t dispute that in normal circumstances a rate rise could well be justified (depending on CPI data). I just think that the RBA board is going to be circumspect for a bit longer about the possibility of an economic downturn due to the US subprime problems.
Sure, but if you can’t win on the day you release tax cuts, then it is doubtful you’ll win the election.
G’day all
I am currently living in rural China a world away from the politics of my homeland but it is interesting to see how the foreign media cover something like the Federal Election. I was watching Channel News Asia yesterday (Singapore sattelite TV channel) and the Aussie election was the lead story. It mentioned the huge poll lead to Kev but the reporter said the main reason why the Libs are so far behind in the polls was due to the War in Iraq. Sure the Iraqi war is bloody unpopular but I certainly wouldn’t say it is the reason that the Rodent is on the skids.
Kina. Anybody who remotely understands a Linux partition or in fact what it is… has my ear. I hope your right. lol
DLP @ 232,
If the 1998 State 2PP swings to the ALP were repeated this year, then the ALP will gain 77 seats compared to the 71 for the Coalition and 2 Independents.
The following ALP gains would be:
NSW: Page, Eden-Monaro, Wentworth, Lindsay, Parramatta
QLD: Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Longman
SA: Wakefield, Kingston, Makin
TAS: Bass, Braddon
WA: Stirling, Hasluck
Interestingly, Bennelong under that scenario will be the Coalition’s most marginal seat (requiring a 0.03% swing for the ALP to win).
Ruawake,
I’m sure this is just round 1 of the Coalition’s spending programme – expect much more at their official campaign launch.
Having said that, yes, it is unusual for them to launch such massive tax cuts so early in the campaign. As has been said on this blog before, it means that these cuts will probably be forgotten well before the end of the campaign. As such, it probably isn’t the sort of theme that will dominate the election campaign – unless Labor makes a real hash of their tax policy (fingers crossed that they don’t!)
And yes, Amber, I am wondering what the Libs will do if there isn’t a narrowing in the polls – I would love to see Abbott & Downer try to weasel their way through that one (would they attempt to blame the MSM for not paying enough attention in their criticisms of Rudd?)
Sinic @ 354
Those sort of comments by young Liberals simply don’t help their cause and in fact might disgust people and send them to Labor. Anyone making a comment on the blogs has probably made their mind up anyway, so they are wasting their time. Even the subtle ones are easy to pick out.
There is still 41 days to go, a long time to keep singing the same song and its going to be difficult to sell tax cuts after a potential rate rise with every third economist talking about their inflationary impact – particularly when their second line of attack is ‘we keep wages low with Workchoices’
I’m sure the govt will keep flogging the ‘where is your tax policy’ line until Labor comes out with theirs, but I really do wonder if they would be better sitting and waiting until more information becomes available.
I must say I did a quick mental calculation of what I would get out of it, its tempting……
But my high moral principles make me resist – I’d rather Labor came up with a better way of spending my money….
G’Day all
In my opinion, I think the Libs have drastically mistimed this announcement.
Three things tell me that:
1. Before the interest rate decision Nov 6
2. Too soon, they might look desparate
3. Leaving Labor with enough time to tweak their tax policy so that they can trump them.
I was worried from a Labor perspective that people would have dollar signs in their eyes when they heard this. But Labor do have time to get themselves into gear.
Interest rates going up could really hurt the Libs and undermine any credibility on tax relief.
Have tax cuts worked in previous campaigns?
I think it is a tactical blunder from the Libs announcing it now. Sure, it gets the discussion on their turf (economic management), but how long is it until it shifts away?
They’ve used their big guns to early, and they may run out of ammo.
I think the electorate is just plain cynical about whatever the govt does. That is shown clearly in Galaxy, where 58% said the Aboriginal intervention was due to the election, and in the last Galaxy 49% said Howard was out of touch and motivated by self-interest. People now simply don’t believe whatever the govt says.
The press’ response really exposes their hypocrisy. Can you imagine the headlines if Labor released this craven bribe “economic vandalism’ ‘38 billion dollar fiscal conservative’ etc etc. Yet they’re the same press that bombard us daily with notions of fiscal probity, the pain of high interest rates, the lack of infrastructure investment, the shamefull state of public hospitals and roads etc. I’m contemplating an MSM blackout during this campaign.
Which won’t be such a bad thing as it helps puts focus on the big day of their release. The long anticipate [thanks to LNP carping] tax policy – will give extra effect.
Labor needs to bring out something today or tomorrow if they can that deflects attention away from this – to create noise and thus lessen any effect. I wonder if they have a grab-bag of special hand grenades to let off at these times?
The polls are going to drive every one crazy – they will be up and down like a yoyo and outliers will drive people nuts as well.
Maybe Sir Eggo.. But what happens if Interest Rates don’t rise…
John Quiggin on ‘Fistful of Dollars11
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/15/fistful-of-dollars-ii/#more-3735
Kina @ 372,
I agree with you in that Labor needs to say something that distracts attention from this – but they should do it tomorrow, as there’s probably nothing they could do today that will distract attention from the tax cuts. I have to say I’m a bit disappointed about Labor’s lethargic start to this campaign – I guess they were a bit stuffed today once the tax cuts were announced, tho…
On a related point, does anyone know when the next poll is expected? Are any expected tomorrow?
Sean you are absolutely spot on..
Looking after the main supporters of the government the rich advertisers who advertise in the media. Also the media want a close election as it helps sell more newspapers and gives greater coverage to rich advertisers…
This is the first of a few big broadsides, but wait for the real killer at the end of the election if they’re still way behind and looking at defeat. They will have their ‘dooms day’ policy waiting in the wings if need be. It will appeal to voters, and it will be so late in the piece it won’t get any real scrutiny. Afterwards, they will find ‘economic conditions’ have changed and they won’t be able to implement it.
Will be interesting to see if they get momentum out of this, if not it’s going to be a very messy campaign.
The thought of Howard playing chicken with the Reserve Bank while accusing Rudd of high risk behaviour is pure gold.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/pm-plays-chicken-with-reserve-board/2007/10/14/1192300601527.html
Marky Marky 373
If rates don’t go up, then it will be up to Labor at least neutralise this potential vote winner with a good policy (don’t stuff it up fellas).
Truthfully, the tax policy is the thing that worries me the most. If Labor stuff it up, the whole thing can go pear shaped. I have memories of a Labor policy in the last campaign where families were worse off over a month, but better off over a year…. how the hell they did that I’m still trying to work out
I think this is the only thing that derail Labor in the campaign. I can’t see anything else pulling Labor back.
BTW, the poll on SMH is saying that instead of tax cuts, it should be spent on hospitals. But I know you take those polls with a pinch of salt.
Burgey @ 355
Yeah, what’s that about? Fifteen seconds of silence is a long time on TV. Speculation: Do you love and trust each other?
Labor could do far worse than “me too” this policy. It would neutralise it in an instant.
Sir Eggo.. guess who was responsible for that tax policy.. guess Wayne Swan.. and he is still in that position..
But i agree i can’t see Labor being beaten.. but stranger things do happen.
Labor may like 1998 get more votes but not enough seats… Nevertheless this is only day one and their is a long way to go…
This after all is the problem with “small target” a la 1998. You get into the mindset that everything is a risk.
I think KR is going to look like Sir Echo if he tries to match this, will he have the courage not to ….. Given the intellectual bankruptcy of the Labor campaign I doubt it.
In football parlance it is ironic that it is JWH who is throwing the ball around with the tax cuts. I guess given the polls he has to. Dont assume this is only shot in the locker – I suspect he will have something for the last fortnight – no doubt big mortgage concessions too.
You can see JWH’s theme developing nicely – I’ve given you lots of goodies in the last ten years, but there are even better and tastier ones just around the corner if you re-elect me. Do you really want to miss out on the goodies and go with KR ? There will be all sorts of blandishments and temptations to move the roughly 3% that is needed to move. It will be an interesting test of the electorate and its resolve.
Marky Marky 382
Why do you think I’m worried!? They stuffed it last time
Surely they have learnt from their mistakes and actually checked their maths!
Gary that would be silly… don’t say things if you cannot keep the promises, it could ruin all of Labor’s campaign policy agenda.
ESJ – You’re not worried he’s gone too hard too soon?
[John Quiggin on ‘Fistful of Dollars11
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/15/fistful-of-dollars-ii/#more-3735
Quiggin points out that $34 billion over the next 5 years is now the upper spending limit for the election. If Labor promises the same, or more likely less, the coalition can’t complain, else they will be open to attacks of hypocrisy.
My guess is Rudd will announce tax cuts half the size, but big boosts to education and child care.
Yeh, Labor’s tax policy will be their first big test of the campaign. If they don’t stuff it up and perform acceptably, it will make the rest of the campaign a LOT easier. If they f*** it up, however, well, it gives the Coalition exactly what they want – a whole heap of momentum, as well as highlighting Labor’s perceived lack of skill at handling the economy.
However, to perform acceptably, they probably need to do more than just “me-too” the Coalition. This is too big an issue to “me-too” – if they do it, it’ll look like a cop-out and will lead to the Coalition getting momentum anyway. They need to release their own policy which has enough differences in it that they can’t (credibly) be accused of copying the Coalition.
369
SirEggo Says:
October 15th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
G’Day all/ In my opinion, I think the Libs have drastically mistimed this announcement.
…….
Hiya SirEggo,
I’m with you. This is just day one and will be greeted with surprise – not with exclamations of delight, but with a comprehensive “Oh, really!!” People will wait to hear what Labor has to say on tax before jumping at this. Too many people have too many reservations about Howard to embrace this just on reflex….
Andrew Leigh is concerned about the unfair distribution of the proposed tax cuts.
http://andrewleigh.com/?p=1647
Maybe a concerted effort to wipe out waiting lists.
I think, like nearly all Lib policies that have been released this year, it will get 24-48 hours of headlines – then the more contrary commentators wil start to pick it apart. Meanwhile the electorate, which regards tax cuts as their rightful reward from a booming economy, and not the generous gift of a benevolent Dear Leader, will yawn.
Voters aren’t drifting to the ALP because they weren’t happy with the tex cuts they were already getting, but L-NP is just offering more of the same, including the same L-plate attack ads, and the same leader for an indeterminate period.
The ALP are ahead and can afford to pace themselves. The way I see it, a lot of the campaign ’shock and awe’ stuff that the L-NP would normally use now has been progressively released over the year, in an increasingly desperate to arrest the slide in the polls. Apart from ‘Captain Wacky’ stuff the cupboard is nearly bare.
The Tax Cut poll results are here for people wanting to keep track:
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/results.html
Now if something else should distract from the Govt’s tax cuts, something like this:
A plane carrying the Australian and Indian teams and their support staff was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds on take-off today.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/cricket/cricketers-in-india-plane-scare/2007/10/15/1192300661760.html
Sir Eggo i am with you… their campaign team worries me… last time they verged on incompetent with poor timing on policy announcements and a lack of policy detail… Do you remember the policies in 2001 on the GST a grab bag of GST reductions on tampons and few other items.. it was a shammozzle and they had three years to come with it…
I think given the polls and their consistency JWH has to chance his arm often and early.
There is a real risk the Liberal campaign falls apart if he doesnt do something – hence todays announcement.
Also going bold forces KR to dance to his tune. I doubt KR will be able to wait to Nov 10 to announce his tax policy.
I think if KR cant win from here he doesnt deserve to be PM. Its fair that we see what he is really made of – every PM for the last 30 years scratched and fought for the prize – Is there a core to KR or is he really just me-too. A little pressure on KR is just what JWH needs.
Presumably anyone in the game expected the Rodent to play every trick in the book and then some – after all he is a “very clever politician”.
[Now if something else should distract from the Govt’s tax cuts, something like this:
A plane carrying the Australian and Indian teams and their support staff was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds on take-off today.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/cricket/cricketers-in-india-plane-scare/2007/10/15/1192300661760.html
Just as well there were no casulties – if there were, can you imagine Howard milking it for all it’s worth by attending the Funeral etc.
ESJ,
I think it would be tactically clever if Labor released their tax policy later this week (I’m guessing Thursday). The supposed reason why they had wanted to delay the release of the policy was that they wanted to wait for the updated Budget figures – now that they’re out, they should bring forward their release date.
For JWH, this wasn’t a big risk in terms of policy. Tax cuts are always popular and cuts this big will attract big headlines. It’s whether he gets any momentum in the polls out of this which will determine how stuffed the Libs are – if they get nothing, they’re going to be well behind, if they get something, then it would be fair to say that it’s truly game on…
Day 1 – Stategic win for Coalition (well it always will be when you get to pick when you call the election)
– Tactical Win for ALP – Howards speech bordered on rambling hysteria, Rudds was unispired but hit all the marks.
Day 2 – Tactical Win for Coaltion – any time you announce 34 bil of tax cuts you care going to win that day.
Strategic win for ALP – the Coalition has fired is biggest gun and most (all?) of the surplus on day 1. The ALP can hold back and build arguments on fiscal responsibility, interest rate pressures (how many interest rate rises does it take to kill off the tax cuts?)
Now that Parliment has been dissolved, Rudd has a lot more freedom to disagree with coalition policy and not risk wedge legislation being rushed through parliment.
At some point someone in the media will pick up on the point that interest rates aren’t rising because of the commodity boom. That’s part of it, but not exactly the full story.
Interst rates are rising becuase inflation is rising. OK.
Inflation is rising because the economy is growing faster than it’s potential growth rate. This leads to inflation.
Now, potential growth rates are tricky things, but when you INVEST montey in Infrastructure, training and the like, then you can have more growth with less inflation.
The skills shortage is a case in point. If we had had a half decent Uni and TAFE Policy from the Coaltion the skills shortage wouldn’t be as bad and so inflation wouldn’t be as bad and so interest rates wouldn’t be so high….
When Johnny gets blamed for rising rates, it will be his fault. But not in the way most people think.
Marky Marky
It is one thing to make a mistake, and it’s another thing to do the same bloody thing again.
The former makes human. The latter makes you an idiot.
Everything tells me that Labor have FINALLY got their act together and got themselves organised.
But I am still waiting for the point where it starts going wrong.
Call me pessimistic, but it has happened before.
After reading Quiggan there are a few ways this can be attacked. A bit of a panic move I think to lead off with them. First, having already spent much of the surplus, where does the money come from for these cuts if the economy cools off? Other taxes would have to rise, or spending slashed again. Perhaps Howard should call them the “C-O-R-E core-promise tax cuts”.
Also, someone should ask him if he is still promising that there will be no (more) interest rate rises with these cuts in place if he is re-elected. I thought it was basic economics that if you pump more money into an already overheated economy, interest rates will probably rise.
SirEggo,
Every indication so far has been that Labor is much more organised and prepared for this poll than any others before. Keiran Richardson on Sky said that yesterday morning, Labor HQ had sent him an e-mail with all relevant contact details on it – a simple act, but something that had not happened in 2004.
Similarly, their reaction to the tax policy has been intelligent – no silly “off-the-cuff” reactions and a determination not to get sucked into a campaign defined by the PM. Whether this continues for the next 40 days will be another matter, but the early signs are good…
Who would have thought that the Howard government would offer a whole stash of tax breaks right after an election has been called?
I certainly didn’t see this coming! What’s next? Something about experience and boarder protection? The coalition will certainly keep us guessing until we hit the polls.
Ruddy on channel 10. very well handled. bought up, howards record as treasurer, wants 3 debates, a good effort.
ruawake, looks like we are going to have a green mp according to the poll at the gg.
If the RBA increases interest rates on October 7th, then Howard’s entire campaign is derailed. It doesn’t matter what he has said before, or says after.
Increased inflation figures from the A.B.S. next Wednesday would set the speculation in motion.
happy revolutionary is spot on with his comment
Excuse me, Marky, the shadow treasurer in 2004 was Crean the Unseen. The “roosters” (Swan, Smith and Conroy) were shut right out of the policy loop by the L*th*m regime. The tax stuffup in the last campaign was entirely a L*th*m-Crean job. You can’t pin that one on Swan.
Day 2 – I give to the Coalition.
I think Labor are doing well to hold their fire on this and wait for a proper analysis. Perhaps a modest tax cut to the lower income brackets (matching or exceeding the Coalition proposal). They should leave the higher bracket alone and use the money that would have been spent on a tax cut to fund infrastructure, education or health etc… Show that they can look after the battlers, that type of thing.
Kina at 350: [Had to open up my Linux partition - XP freezing on me..grrr]
…serves you right for booting into windows in the first place!
How hard to reduce the GST? 34bill offers a lot of room for reduction. Everybody gets a little something, no one misses out. Spend the rest on infrastructure to increase the tax base.
ShowsOn,
I think you mean November 7th.
I think Labor should cut the highest marginal tax rate to at least the same level as the Coalition. It would shut down one of the business lobby’s arguments against Labor and it would help in Labor’s arguments that they are trying to make the economy more competitive.
The other advantage of cutting the top marginal rate is that it’s cheap (relatively) to do so – I think they should reduce it to something with a 3 in front of it, just to give the business lobby something to think about. Either that or cut the corporate tax rate (though that will probably be more expensive).
What is the rule about media coverage now? It has to be equal time in print and tv?
Correct.. Swan was appointed by Latham in a cabinet reshuffle just after the election, and yes Crean was the unseen but where is Swan…
I know it’s childish of me, but I really resent that the lazy bugger won’t walk from the Lodge to Lake Burley Griffin as part of his morning walk. The ABC Midday News showed him getting into the Comcar at the conclusion of the walk/photo opportunity.
Kina (372)
Don’t be too sure the polls will be “up and down like a yoyo”. They have been stable now for months despite all the budget handouts back in May, Costello’s huge superannuation changes kicking in at the beginning of July, the tens of millions of taxpayer dollars spent by the government on self promotion over the last five months, Howard’s forays into aboriginal affairs, all the pork barrelling and state bashing and the never ending smear campaign against Kevin Rudd and his wife.
If this big policy announcement simply goes through to the keeper like everything else before it, Howard might just as well start packing his bags now.
The killer line which makes it a bad day for the Tories was this from Costello which seems to make an interest rate rise more likely:
“Mr Costello also announced the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook.
Treasurer Peter Costello said since the last budget the growth forecasts for both 2006/07 and 2007/08 have been upgraded.
“Growth in 2006/07 was expected to be 2.5 per cent. In fact the outcome was three and a quarter,” Mr Costello said.
“Growth in 2007/08 was forecast to be three and three quarter per cent. The new forecast is four and a quarter per cent.”
Well that looks good for inflation, interest rate rises and suffering for anyone with a loan – and even more suffering for anyone with a WorkChoices AWA and also subject to Unfair dismissal.
Increase costs cut wages.
Nice plan.
Rudd on channel 10 news in Sydney has challenged Howard to three debates over the six week campaign period, instead of just the one dabate on pay TV in the first week of the campaign.
As Rudd correctly pointed out, it is in the best interests of our democracy to debate major policies as they are released further into the campaign.
The conservatives must admit the current system is a joke! It really is time for fresh thinking and new leadership.
The proposed tax cuts are – like George Bush’s – heavily skewed in favour of upper income earners.
I would have thought that one component of the general malaise – the mood which contemplates turfing out a government which has presided through relatively prosporous times – has been a disquiet at the perception that inequalities of income have unacceptably widened. If that is the case then even a cursory analysis of the Costello plan suggests that it might not be the longed for saviour of the coalition. It seems to be highly regressive.
Sir Eggo (#384 & #400) & Marky Marky (#394) – I think that some of the mistakes last time for Labor were because Latham repeatedly ignored advice from the campaign team and went with his own gut feeling about what to say and do.
This campaign is being run by professionals with a very hard-working and intelligent Leader. They’ve outplayed Howard for months. No reason to think they cannot continue to at least hold their own. Rudd would have had his tax cut reaction script ready before today’s announcement, even if he was slightly surprised to have to use it so soon.
Labor needs friendlies to ‘go’ at the tax cut to keep its hands clean and from being wedged. Tax cuts for the rich etc whilst pushing up inflation and rates for everyone else.
If Lab go anywhere near matching Costello’s tax cuts then they will be making a huge mistake. For every ‘moneybags of perth’ (@279) seduced by Fist-Full-Of-Dollars Mk 2 there are 10 voters who’d rather see the money spent on education, health, infrastructure, water and the environment.
As for the media barking the government’s calls for Rudd to release Labor’s tax policy all he needs to do is remind the journos (and I use the term loosely) that treasury is yet to release the national account figures and it would be irresponsible and dishonest to announce policy that may not be fundable, especially considering ‘Fist-Full-Of-Dollars’ Howard lied through his teeth about what was in the kitty during the 1983 election campaign. If I remember right, then it only contained an old apple core and a near $10 billion IOU!
If there is an interest rate increase on November 7, then that immediately cancels out the tax cuts.
Rudd would be better off offering tax offsets for the mortage. Or a riskier option would be cutting petrol tax by a few cents a litre.
bird 89# absolutly spot on
I think it’s a little naive to suppose that Howard and co were just going to give up without a fight and let Labor win. They will fight back and since they are in government they have the ability to spring policy surprises. This will give them some wins. Of course they have pledged tax cuts – that’s what conservatives always do, especially when they’re trailing. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. I have no opinion on the economics of it, but as a matter of pure politics it’s a big bribe to the middle class and we will have to wait and see whether it has any effect in the polls. I suspect it won’t, because the swing is coming mainly from the working-class (who don’t like WorkChoices) and the upper-middle-class (who don’t like lots of things, none of them to do with tax).
Does anybody know who is on Rudd’s campaign team? I mean who is flying around with him? Stephen Smith? John Faulkner?
Just wondering…
Canberra Boy i somewhat disagree with. Latham did make mistakes.. but he had a labor party racked with factional dills, the CFMEU (construction, forestry mining & energy union) two days before an election whingeing about jobs and siding with Howard and Dick Adams doing the same… and Mr Lennon what a disgrace he was.. but it was all Lathams’ fault for at least going to an election with some fair dinkum labor policies. But as usual it was all Lathams’ fault..
If anything lost the election it was poor policy response to an Interest Rate scare campaign and this alone cost Labor the election.
What they have done thus far: Shredded the paper. Now they are cleaning out the coffers. This is slash and burn.
Re the tax cuts:
I’m sorry, I can’t agree with some here. Metooism won’t work. It was a brilliant strategy that has kept the LNP on the run all year.
But the moment has arrived for Rudd to stand and dare to be different. This is not simply about trumping one another with policy and the winner gets the prize. It is about leading a Nation.
He must challenge us to decide whether we want a society that is more than a bottom line. Whether we care about each other, or ourselves. Whether we want a nation that is divided by worth or united in opportunity.
Yes to follow would be politically savvy but is it really politics we want? Surely to Christ this is what Howard has done to us. What legacy has this narrow vision left?
Our schools are collapsing, our aged have nowhere to go, women are miscarrying in toilets and our troops are at war! Yet we are concerned about the politics of tax cuts?
I am not for sale and am done with this pestilent blot and his mealy-mouthed servants who peddle smug sanctimony and fear.
These tax cuts are an insult simply because it is assumed they will work. I for one want Rudd to seize the moment and lead. It is not tax cuts but ‘leadership’ we need.
End of rant.
Labor will not be wedged by trying to top Costello and then being accused of being economically irresponsible.
The tax cuts offered today are nothing but a bribe and should be exposed as such.
why dosent anyone pick up costello when he saysGrowth in 2007/08 was forecast to be three and three quarter per cent. The new forecast is four and a quarter per cent.â€
If he is such a great treasurer why dosent’t he know how much money the gov has got. is the job too hard for him or is he just incompatant
Tax cuts???
From the highest taxing government in Australias history in the middle of a mining boom!
A monkey could do it.
No innovation, no vision, the same predictable boring backward thinking old leadership.
libsrok – they never picked him up when he had totally the wrong idea of how tax scales were applied yet they made a big deal out of Rudd having not memorised the tax scales [but not Howard or Downer when they didn't know].
Not much chance of Labor being wedged this year folks unless by pure circumstance beyond their control. I thought that I read in the past that they have already hinted a tax cuts that reward people and I think small business tax cuts. Anyway – a former Treasury official used to be on their team – he left but I gather they would have obtained someone similar.
SirEggo
When, in hindsight, did it go wrong for John Howard?
@431, Gecko
I’m not trying to belittle your comments but it is hard to lead the nation from opposition.
It would be hard for the opposition to not offer some form of tax cuts considering what the government are offering now. They can’t really target them at the lower end, this has been tried as an election tactic before and has failed due to the old lines about class warfare.
The transformation of this country from “An earlier State to an opportunity State’ as Howard put it, is all but complete. All politics is about the individual now (when wasn’t it really?).
Best for the Labor party to leave the piety to the Greens and do what they need to do, to get in the game.
The tax cuts smack of desperation. So much given away, so soon.
Rudd’s response should be, “Gee… they’re doing tax cuts? Who’d have guessed?”
I keep getting this image of a tennis match, with the crowd’s heads moving left then right then left again, waiting to see who’ll trump who.
Rudd really does need to break the chain here. He should put on his Fiscal Responsibility hat and say, “We’re waiting to see the figures.”
He should definitely not panic.
If Labor is to win they should have prepared for this. If they have not prepared for it, they don’t deserve to win.
Please people, this is not 2004. Rudd has out thought and out manoeuvred Howard all year so is unlikely to fall apart now. Rudd would have known, like every joe blow citizen, that Howard would be throwing big dollars at the electorate in desperation, what else could he do other than meekly surrender, it really is bang or bust time for the libs now.
Rudd has done the right thing in saying he will look at the detail and just let it wash through the system. He should just stick to his schedule and not be “spooked” into showing his cards any earlier than planned just because Howard wants to see what’s he’s got.
This week will soon be forgotten in the long battle ahead and the most important time to have your policies in peoples mind is when they are voting. Like a bad lover they have popped their cork too early in my opinion, Rudd is wise to save the best for last I say.
436 Derek Corbett
I personally think it went wrong for the Libs when they did not change leaders in the middle of last year. They had a chance to start fresh and they didn’t. OK, Peter Costello might not have been popular, but he had a year to convince the people he was OK.
Where did it go wrong for JWH. A combination of not knowing when to go (i.e. put his own interests in front of the party’s), and father time running up and kicking him in the butt.
As well as that, he underestimated his opponent (he probably stuck around last year on the assumption he would be against Beazley this election, which would probably be doing better). He probably didn’t think that Labor would get themselves organised (and neither did I for that matter). I don’t think he thought that Rudd would give him this much trouble.
20 20 hindsight is a wonderful thing…..
Who’s watching ther Exclusive Bretheren thing tonight? Has anybody heard of anything that can be, well, a little damaging from it?
Just watched Howard interviewed in ACA.
He didn’t look at all comfortable and when sprung with a question on the worm and then what the average weeks earnings were said “a little over 50,000, I think” which was followed up with a question on the current Reserve interest rate, answered it angrily and seemed to be fuming at the end.
Loved it. It may be a long 6 weeks for him.
Did anyone see Howard and Rudd on A Current Affair tonight?
Any comments?
Gecko
As rants go, 9-10. Agree.
Rudd got the same questions.
Got both right and finished the interview with a smile.
He also mentioned wanting the “worm’ in any debate (wants 3) because he believes people like it and it adds colour to the debate.
There was no way Howard wanted it.
Howard and Rudd on now with Kerry. ABC
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=427694
What’s showing through is Howard’s belief that he really shouldn’t have to be put through all this, that he should just be anointed for another term because he is so obviously superior to these Labor nincompoops. This is called h*br*s and it is what happens when you have spent too long in office. Costello, Downer and Abbott have it badly too. Keating had it too, but he carried it off better than Howard because he was younger. (That didn’t save him, of course.) The combination of h*br*s and age makes Howard look querelous and grumpy, like grandpa who can’t understand what all this fuss is about and where are my glasses anyway. He will also find the campaign physically tiring (no matter how fit he is, he is still 68) and that will make him more grumpy as it wears on. Rudd on the other hand is young(ish) and zealous. His problem is looking smug and cocky, which is how he is all the time, but it looks bad during the campaign. A couple of bad polls (not too bad of course) might actually be of benefit to Rudd, bring out the fighter in him and prevent the early onset of h*br*s.
#447 Spot on Adam, was thinking the exact same myself after watching Howard on ACA and 7:30 report
I thought Kerry gave Howard the harder time, and Howard got a little narky.
No matter what people say, Howard has a knack for delivering the canned line like a spontaneous speech, Rudd still sounds like he has rehearsed in front of the mirror.
Still, Kevin got a joke in and I thought came off better.
I’d agree also Adam. I’d add that Labor needs to develop a snappier response to such grandstanding. It’s all well & good to say “we’ll announce our policy in good time” but you need to package that message with a bit of punch; “it’s an election, not an auction.”
Just judge the substance in their answers on the 7.30 Report.
Howard as I said before, the highest taxing government in Australias history, in the midst of a huge resources boom. Decreases real spending across the board especially in education and health. HIS PLAN…tax cuts to bribe people into voting for him.
We need to get rid of this old opportunistic government with no plan for the nation beyond this election.
We sure do need the right leadership. New leadership.
Frank
“Labor immediately hit back, saying the government’s Australian Technical Colleges could not address the shortage of 200,000 skilled workers over the next five years.”
Howard and co’s plan for the skill shortage is to bring in more 457 visa workers.
Cheaper than investing in training in Australia.
Savings made on not investing in education can be offered as tax cuts.
And 457 visa workers drag wages for everyone down, increasing profits.
Howard lost his cool on 7.30 tonight.
When Kerry said, “We look forward to having you back during the campaign,”
Howard just grunted,
“I’m sure”
He really did look like a used car salesman who thought he was losing the mug. He spruiked, he flustered, he oversold. He was just about tripping over his own words.
As I’ve predicted many times: far too much to say and too little time to say it in.
Kevin, on the other hand, was calm, cool, smiling and totally non-wedged. He said the budget figures came out publicly only today, but Costello has had them – in part or in whole – for months. Labor will be carefully considering them before they respond etc. etc. Perfect. OK, so there was a partial rehash of today’s talking points (front bench includes an “out of work diplomat”, a “rock star” and so on) but really, it was a good performance. Calm, confident, measured.
Rudd even noted that Howard described him in his (Rudd’s) preferred terms: “a fiscal conservative”.
Thanks, Johnny. You knew as soon as you said it that you’d blown it.
And it showed.
I really don’t think lefties here should worry too much about the new tax package. As Rudd pointed out, if it was so wonderful why didn’t they announce it at Budget time?
Besides, Howard starts behind the 8-ball in the “trust” stakes.
I’d score today a win for Labor.
Anyone got an update on Matt Price?
Saw the insiders bit, but didn’t know what to think
Any one interested in democracy and how to buy it, have a look at 4 corners on the ABC
If the next newspoll or any other poll stays steady or goes up for Labor, it’s over as a contest.
rudd’s budget reply to costello’s last budget surprised people and the liberal’s , the grumpy look’s on the liberal faces was priceless that night
i think labors tax policy will have the same response
If Labor was not expecting John Howard’s tax cuts, its leaders don’t know much about politics.
DLP (120 and 172),
Oh, the irony of your name and my response to it! A number of expelled Victorian MPs had never even met Bob Santamaria. Of course, a lot of NSW Labor people had sympathy for the DLP. After all, they were basically the same sort of people. But once the Left saw what a disaster intervention had been in Victoria, they backed off in NSW, accepted a few sacrificial lambs (Jack Kane and Frank Rooney) and left the Groupers in charge. The 1955 federal conference was rigged because the federal executive decided to let the illegal Victorian delegation vote on a motion to exclude the legal delegation, which was denied a vote. The executive did this because the majority of legal delegate to the Conference would have overturned intervention.
The split did not give us a “better balanced Labor party(sic)â€. It gave control to the far left in Victoria and led to Labor being in the wilderness here for 27 years, requiring further intervention in 1970 and the re-affiliation of the DLP unions in 1985 or 1986 to help produce the modern natural party of government that Labor now is.
Gippslander (138),
There were personal animosities involved too. The best account is Robert Murray’s The Split, though Brian Costar et al’s The Great Labor Schism is also useful.
Adam (156),
The Age has reported that the DLP will be contesting Senate seats in every state – a remarkable turn of events – and some lower house ones. I expect DLP preferences will help the ALP in McMillan and elsewhere.
Scorpio (165),
I have finally worked out whence The Australian has got its “17 seatsâ€. It is counting Harry Quick’s seat as held by an independent – trickery, of course!
Bushfire Bill,
“Perception is everything.†I thought John Howard came across better than Kevin Rudd on The 7.30 Report. Kerry O’Brien gave him a much harder time, but I thought he handled it well. Kevin Rudd was given an easy ride and was pretty boring for most of his answers. I wish he’d stop responding as if he were giving a tutorial presentation and just “cut to the chaseâ€.
I think both Rudd and Howard are poor media performers. Howard is just a horrible man, Rudd comes across as if he’s reading from a script every time he talks. It’s not natural and he sounds smug. The most common comment I hear about Rudd is that he’s too smug, this could hurt Labor in a 6 week campaign. 6 weeks of Kevin Rudd on the tv every night may get too much for some people.
Chris, well the DLP better hurry or I will have no room left at my website for them. I am being bombarded with candidates now, including a year 12 student who is running as a Democrat in Bendigo – talk about pitching for the yoof vote. The Christian Democrats have announced a whole raft of candidates too, plus we have these new Liberty and Democracy people and the Climate Change Coalition. And I dare say the Commos will wheel out a veteran or two, just for old times’ sake Chris.
Adam,
The Age could be wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time. A year 12 student! At least I waited until I was at university.
Adam,
I thught the communists voted Liberal now. Communist China has the same anti-union, pro-CWA IR laws as the Howard Government. When I asked one former La Trobe Maoist about his politics 18 years later, he said something about a mortgage.
He he, reminds me in a tangential way of the International Socialists who were going to vote for Howard in ‘96 so as to hasten the revolution.
Like the DLP, the CPA refuses to die
http://www.cpa.org.au/
No mention of any candidates though. Whatever happened to Ralph Gibson?
Oh dear, the LaRouche crazies have a whole raft of candidates. I don’t think I am going to dignify them by listing them at my website.
http://www.cecaust.com.au/main.asp?sub=election&id=index01.html#scrol
What’s the betting that Morgan will conduct a poll over the next couple of days to test the response to the big announcement by Howard and Costello today?
Whatever happened to the Natural Law Party?
They levitated themselves into the loonysphere.
They channelled the power of the loonyverse?
Oh my, some of those CEC candidates look seriously scary, in an “I will eat your flesh” kind of way. And yes, many are sporting a beard. The whole party just creeps me out and I’m not sure why.
oh dear, CEC has lots of Men With Beards standing in WA.
http://www.cecaust.com.au/main.asp?sub=election&id=waindex.htm
Observed, 453 Bushfire Bill
Most ungracious. I thought Kevin avoided without heavy handedness Kerry’s good try to have him show any of the cards, though Kevin chucked out the odd dot point (university funding, climate change)
Kevin this time said ‘under employed’ diplomat.
Scroll down this list of beauties:
http://www.cecaust.com.au/main.asp?sub=election&id=nswindex.htm
Pay particular attention to Ian McCaffrey, Adrian Ford, David Simpson and David Stow.
Ian looks like he’s a missing persons photo and the others just… yeah.
They are serious loonies, and not harmless either. They are a cult and can get violent when crossed.
One of the CEC candidate statements
“He is the father of three children and five grandchildren.”
I think they could have phrased it better, especially in light of recent events.
#428 Shows on
I can’t remember his name, but I think Rudd’s media minder is that Canadian bloke who used to work for Bob Carr. Absolutely ruthless and comes down very hard on dissenting stories (eg the dispute about Rudd’s childhood from SMH reporters). He is, of course, absolutely media-savvy.
Chris Curtis. On the split and the recent passing of the great Kim Beazley senior:
He had a great quote about the Victorian Left (which along with FE (’Joe’) Chamberlain) controlled the ALP Federal Executive in the 60s.
“It has the Midas Touch for failure, to the point of sheer genius.”