After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent. A small amount of solace might be taken from a 3 per cent increase in the Prime Minister’s remarkably resilient approval rating, now up to 47 per cent, and a rise in dissatisfaction with Kevin Rudd from 20 per cent to 24 per cent. However, both Howard and Rudd are up 1 per cent on preferred prime minister, with Kevin Rudd leading 48 per cent to 39 per cent.
Plaudits to James J for somehow finding the graphic before The Australian put its coverage online.
477 Comments
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“For those who do not have to live in a State run by Labour MPs you will never know what it is like, to live with decisions that have been made by Labour State MPs, who have now effected our lifestyle due to poor planning or lack of. ” I think some here were a bit anal in their criticism of New Australia 112. It is the grammar which has let him/her down, he probably meant to write that in the past tense or was referring to wider geography. Sentences don’t end in ‘of’ either.
Re #57 – Phil, the AEC website confirms what Alex (#61) heard – close of nominations on 1 November allows the maximum possible time for nominations. This date will be specified in the writs to be issued on Wednesday, but could potentially be set anywhere between 27 Oct (minumum 10 days after issue of writs) and 1 Nov (minimum 23 days before polling day.
Thinking of standing?
Albert F @ 146
Wise advice. Walls have ears, loose lips sink ships … yep, give ‘em stones, lumps of old concrete, three-wheeled shopping trolleys … but not good advice. That’s the job of the MSM cheer squad.
Hi there poll-bludgers, my first post about a month after finding pollbludger.com (many thanks to the venue management: William).
I have found some crucial evidence pointing to the latest Howard wedge tactic on The Kev at http://rightthinker.com/
News Flash: Rudd endorsed by the Hoff – “strippergate” the key
——————————————————————–
“Any politician who says with a straight face he didn’t know he was at a strip club gets my vote”
Polls don’t count when The Hoff comes out on your side
Mark @ 31: “Greg Combet looks like a banker”
Nah, he looks like Clark Kent. One of these days he’ll whip off those glasses and dart into a phone box.
Good afternoon
paul k says: “This election will be won and lost in the marginals, not in the opinion polls.” Incorrect. The election will be won and lost by the national campaigns. The marginals will go along with the statewide swings, which will largely though not entirely be determined by the national campaigns. If there is (for example) a 10% swing in Victoria, then Labor will win 10 seats, give or take one or two. Some seats will swing less, some will swing more, but they will cancel each other out. In an urban seat, a good local member and a good local campaign are worth maybe 2%, in a country seat rather more. But no local campaign will save a 5% seat from a 10% swing.
DLP, if you are a DLP member, can you advise when the DLP will be announcing its candidates? There’s nothing I can see at the DLP website.
I’m wondering what people thought of the first ads last night.
During Australian Idol (I’m a compulsive reailty TV fan) last night the only ads I saw were the one with the L plates, and the ACTU one with the guy from Narre Warren in Victoria.
I’m stunned that the Libs would bring back the L plates when a key part of the attack on the them is that they are ’stale’. And surely they can’t think that the public view Rudd just the same as they viewed Latham. They could not be more different. I also thought that they lacked any sort of incisive slogan. Reminds me of the 1996 campaign when the Keating campaign advertising theme was “A Howard Government: Don’t Risk It!”. And didn’t that work??
As for the ACTU ad it has been around for a while now, but I can see why they are still using it – it’s so powerful. By the end of it you just want to find Howard and punch him for what his laws have done to that guy’s family.
But I’m a rusted on Labor voter so my critiques are hardly surprising. What did other people think?
Alex McDonnel, here’s one for you (you almost wrote it yourself) “Sentences don’t end in the word ‘of’”.
In the words of another (not political) blogger:
“Now instead of being bombarded with ads about how great the Coalition government is, we’ll be bombarded with ads about how great the Coalition government is AND ads about how much Kevin Rudd sucks! Yippee!”
People are already sick of Labor and Liberal, they just want it over so they can get on with watching TV without throwing a shoe at it. 6 more weeks of this?
ALP advs should feature heaps of Howard’s head and him talking -it’s what everyone is sick of seeing and hearing. And end with the narration: Get this man off our televisions.
Adam,
Guess I can just order my champagne for the 24th and maybe not even bother about voting. You’ve got it all tied up. No need for anyone to worry about what’s going on in the marginals. Don’t know why we’re even bothering with a campaign seeing it’s all going to be so easy.
I think Adam agreed that a good local campaign was worth 2%. In a marginal 2% is definately the difference between a win and a loss. But if you have to rely no a marginal campaign to win the election then you’re in big danger. The marginal campaign should be about consolidating gains made in the national campaign.
“Costello to ambush labor on tax”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587386-5014046,00.html
Ozymandias 157 – you can put anything in inverted commas. Having seen the standard of spelling and grammar on a number of blogs over the past year, I think no one should throw stones! But we do live an age of abbreviated texting.
The idiots at the GG are still on about this 17 seats needed by Labor. WTF.
{The magic number for November 24 is 17: the number of seats between Labor’s current parliamentary representation of 59 and the 76 seats needed to give the ALP a majority of one. }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586180-5014046,00.html
Scotty @ 58: That is a great speech by Rudd. And a beautiful article coming from The Australian.
It’ll be interesting to see if the Liberal campaign ads get any better than those aired last night. A Liberal MP was anonymously quoted on AM today saying if the campain is fairly standard, they’ll lose. Well, I haven’t seen anything innovative yet. Personality based presidential campaign, even though Howard’s due to walk halfway through the next term, “L plate” negative ads and scares aplenty. All pretty standard fare. The offer of a debate next Sunday was interesting. I wonder if he’ll go for more than one?
Socrates @ 147
Yep, often wondered about whether Howard has a personal camera crew following him at all times. Then they bung it out free to the TV stations – a sort of video press release. He seems to bob up everywhere. His Propaganda Unit must be costing a fortune.
Be nice to have the system explained. How many operatives in his media unit? What does it cost?
I know the last Morgan poll was three whole days ago and is probably forgotten by now, so please delete this post if its covering old ground
However, on the 12th, Morgan also released his findings from a poll asking people to state thier major concerns if LNP or ALP was to win the election
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4223/.
Its interesting to note the biggest jump is issues of concern is for the LNP regarding thier handling of the economy if they are returned!!
A M 163. Touche! Can people please note there is definitely no ‘a’ in ‘definitely’.
A local campaign is worth 2%, once you’ve got them won over you just have to convince the other 49%!
Adam @ 155.
As one media commentator put it yesterday. This is election will be more like 150 by-elections.
Don’t under estimate the voter considering their local member first and the national campaign for their Senate vote.
An example would be Mal Brough in Longman. Everyone is writing him off but he is not unpopular as a local member.
I don’t believe Australia has quite evolved to Presidential style politice (but it sounds as though you do believe).
My point is the polling trend is encouraging but this labor win will be one by talikng one seat at a time. Universal swings mean nothing.
Finally, I am an ALP member but you could say that long ago I had DLP sympathy.
Didn’t Keating come up with some exotic tax policies in 1996? (can’t remember clearly, was quite young then)
The tax announcement is going to be irritating for Rudd – he can’t announce a tax policy until Treasury releases the updated Budget figures, which will be 10 days in to the campaign.
What makes it worse is that Howard can badger Rudd about tax policy with impunity on the debate, as he would already have released a tax policy whilst Labor wouldn’t have…
Derek Corbett Says: @ 167
{Be nice to have the system explained. How many operatives in his media unit? What does it cost?}
This should go some way th explaining it for you Derek. Look at it and weep. I know those people on Hospital waiting lists and those who can’t afford urgent attention to their teeth would.
{PRIME Minister John Howard’s team of spin doctors is costing taxpayers nearly $8.5 million a year – almost double the amount of three years ago.
The Sunday Telegraph reports that the Coalition has beefed up its team with 73 advisers now at its disposal, 15 more than in 2004.
The Federal Government is also employing 10 staff and spending an extra $1 million of taxpayers’ funds as part of a propaganda cadre to target Kevin Rudd.
The media advisers include those working in ministerial offices, the Cabinet policy unit and the government members’ secretariat. }
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22073660-2,00.html
Sorry about the typing errors @171. My fingers are keeping up with me.
112 New Australia – Ah, a message from the Liberal Party. That should change our minds.
paul k, heavy irony is a very cheap, unoriginal and tiresome form of argument. Either respond to my points or shut up.
Quite right, Paul K, behave yourself – immediately cease and desist from independent thought.
Looks like a “misinformation” campaign from the Labor bunker works well with the media pundits.
{Labor insiders agree the ALP may need to win as few as four Queensland seats but, more likely, eight or more.
The real difficulty for the Opposition Leader is that only two Coalition-held seats in his home state can be regarded as truly marginal – Bonner (0.5per cent) and Moreton (2.8per cent). }
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586180-5014046,00.html
I am totally amazed at the sheer ignorance of the MSM political commentators when they are puzzle over why the Howard Govt is so on the nose – and not just a bit on the nose, a lot on the nose and for the whole year.
They totally discount the history of the govt and its cummulative effect on our feeling of what they are all about. I hate to repeat it but these issues do add up: Hicks, Iraq, AWB, Climate Change, Nuclear, Children Overboard, Detention Centres, promoting xenophobia and veiled racism, then their continual smear and blame tactics with everyone. AND the Howard, Costello etc rehtoric in support of these issues. Turned more and more people off over time.
Remember a poll earlier this year in which people thought the PM was dishonest/untrustworthy? Remember the total skepticism over the NT aboriginal invasion? These feelings/opinions are not held for without reason or in isolation, they are a symptom of what people think the Howard govt stands for and is really like.
Not one of thoses issues cost a minister his job or caused acceptance and appology of the Govt at the time – in fact it was all denials even when to the majority it was all BS.
Then on top of all this you add WorkChoices which when it worked its way into the understanding of the people confirmed in spades the nature of Howard and his crew.
I do not understand how the MSM can say this has been a good government? It has been a very bad govt for in addition to the above it has ignored climate change, kyoto, wasted 10 years of surpluses [just ask the Chief Economist of McQuarie bank - that is what he said two weeks ago]
The MSM are bessotted with Howard and Co and the economy. They think Howard arrogance and aggression in everything is successful governance. The economy most them already know belongs to Keating and Global boom and mining boom. Howard has been divisive, not cooperative – created intolerance, not harmony, traded on racism etc.
So what are they talking about, why their ignorance?
Have they become too close to the Govt? Are they afraid of the Govt? Is it the millions in advertising they are repaying or worried about losing, is it simply right-wing papers and journalists supporting their own kind?
It seems the people of Australia are smarter and more understanding than MSM journalists and papers.
To the MSM : the Howard Govt is on the nose because it has shown itself to be cynical, self-serving, unfair, unaccountable, irresponsible, dependant on Bush, arrogant, dishonest, deceitful, racist and now wasteful and harmful to ordinary Australians. It took a while, but it began to sink in.
This is exactly why the smear against Rudd and Labor actually helped them – the Govt were simply reaffirming their type and the public got to see public displays of the very things that turned them off the govt. ANY further smears this campaign, any fear attempts etc may actually have the same result if not done carefully.
Paul k, heavy irony is a cheap, unoriginal and tiresome form of debate. Either respond to my points with something intelligent or save your keystrokes.
Let Costello go for it. Labor will release its tax policy when it is good and ready and not before. Why should they?
why do my posts disappear then appear twice when i repose them?
paul k @ 102
The problem with your argument is the teams of Your Rights at Work campaigners have been in the marginals for the past 18 months. It’s too late to suddenly get “teams of libs” in them with 6 weeks to go.
Adam,
Giving orders now? Fine. Let’s say you are right and what happens in the marginals is irrelevant. The Libs can afford to lose 14 seats. Over that number some of the seats will be won or lost on less than a few hundred votes. What’s the bet the Libs are working on local issues to keep those few hundred votes away from Labor in key marginals.
If you are right we can all sit back and let Team Rudd do all the work and not worry about what the Libs are doing in the marginals. But if you are wrong?
But what would I know. I’m just “cheap, unoriginal and tiresome”. By the way how many Federal Elections have you helped win for the Labor Party?
So the Government wants to debate only on pay TV. Why haven’t they worked out all the details before now? Looks like a rerun of the Queensland state election where the wheels fell off on day one and the momentum was never recovered.
This from the other thread. If watcher is correct, then the mountain the Coalition has to climb is very steep indeed.
Watcher Says:
October 15th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
GO at 67, Labor don’t need to win Qld as such, they just need to do better. Even if the swing in Qld is less than 4% (& indeed even if this is accompanied by a swing of less than 3% in WA, SA, Vic, Tas & the NT) Labor can still gain sufficient seats to form government if they get a swing above 4% in NSW.
Of course, Labor can release its tax policy when they are ready – and they’d be foolish to release it before the Treasury figures come out.
BUT, this gives Howard a stick that he can beat Rudd over the head with for the next week or so, including the debate. What makes it more effective is that Rudd’s already made one gaffe in the area of tax and the MSM have been demanding a tax policy from Labor for the last month (making Howard’s stick that much more effective).
That said, Howard probably needs another dozen sticks to beat Rudd over the head with to win, so it’s not a major problem for Labor (at this stage…)
Gee the tories here just dont get it.
“It’s Workchoices, stupid”.
err costello ambushed himself last time on ALP tax policy.
He is heavily over-rated
I beleive his response was contained within that irony, Adam.
Btw, can someone explain to me why every betting market has Labor strong favourites to win Hasluck but a 50/50 chance to win Stirling?
As a NSWelshman, I have no idea what the difference is between those electorates.
Spiros @ 90
Agreed with just about all of what you said, except for this:
“This year has been one big constant 55:45 poll for Labor, give or take MoE. There’s no reason at all to expect that that will change during the campaign.”
By the same token, there’s no reason to expect it will stay the same, as people with absolutely no interest in politics but who are forced to vote, are compelled into bringing their minds to bear on who they are going to vote for.
The reason I think this will change (”The Narrowing”) is the view that the Australian people don’t actually want to punish the Libs, they just think it’s time for a change. The Australian economy is the big thing here – whatever the reasons, the economy is going along quite nicely, in most respects. Someone up above mentioned the baseball bat, a phrase coined by Wayne Goss but applied by the voters to Paul Keating. I’m not sure that Howard rubs the swinging voters (whoever they are) in quite the same way as Keating. On the other hand, Rudd clearly doesn’t scare the swinging voter, unlike say, Latham.
My personal view is that a nationwide swing of 8% is probably not going to happen . That would equate to ~1 in 6 ppl who voted coalition 2PP last time (ignoring deaths, immigration/emigration, and ppl turning 18), now voting 2PP for the ALP. I think Rudd will form government with about 80 seats. Say ~52-48 2PP. The Narrowing does not mean Rudd loses. It does make for a much more interesting campaign, however.
Socrates at 111
- interest rates – the announcement of any rise would be the day after Melbourne Cup day – 4 November. There will be no change to current rates, however.
- unemployment data was released late last week, it’s monthly data, so I spose the second week of November.
- Haneef – don’t know – the papers initiating the appeal are definitely filed. I doubt whether it would come on for hearing so quickly.
- the electoral allowance investigations are closed.
Misty at 116 – agreed. The question really is whether Latham was Howard’s Hewson. In my view, Keating was lucky to get Hewson (or really that the Libs couldn’t think of anyone more suitable) at an election that was eminently winnable for the coalition. cf. Latham v Howard in 2004?
And if people were sick of Howard already in 2004, but supported him as the least worst candidate for PM, then the proferring by the ALP of a mild mannered personality like Rudd, is very wise, and he’d have to really stuff up to lose. People who were sick of Howard in 2004 are doubtless more sick of him now. If there are very significant numbers of people who are in that position, and just will not countenance voting yet again for Howard, then the long-campaign-glass-jaw-anything-could-happen theory of politics won’t be enough to get the coalition across the line.
As I see it, this question goes to the very core of the soft support:hard support dichotomy underpinning the ALP’s very consistent and impressive 2pp polling figures.
Libs announcing Tax Cuts – I can’t hear the TV though…
Geez, some things never change do they? You Labor boys aren’t even in Government yet and you’re already fighting amongst yourselves.
Adam – Paul K – cool down! Please. You’re meant to be on the same team.
paul k – the Libs can’t afford to lose 14 seats. That would mean a loss of their majority and a reliance on independents who may/may not support them.
DLP @ 125
I understand.
The point I am making is that simply because the election has been called does not wipe the slate to a fifty/fifty contest from here on in. The polls (which are all we have to go on) have been too consistent. People want change. And I contest that many who do, are small ‘l’ liberals such as my wife. Nothing said now can shift this, for it will be seen merely for what it is: politics.
I don’t think it will tighten like the pundits profess. This is not like any other election. The country is economically sound, unemployment is low, people don’t necessarily dislike the direction we are headed… yet the polls are solidly for change.
Why?
Because they no longer represent who we are. Our weakest are threatened. We loathe arrogance. We despise bullsh*t. We hate liars. And are suspicious of those that crave power exclusively.
I suspect the marginals are indeed marginal but the rout will come from within Liberal’s own ranks. They are just as outraged as we are at the extreme right wing shift. The state polls that Possum alluded to on his site a month ago is in part, evidence of swings in the heartland.
I am not condoning complacency… but we should recognise the ground swell of opinion and trust the other half of thinking Australia to get it right.
The coalition will lose and because Rudd is a solid, pleasant and viable alternative I expect them to lose big.
My opinion lol.
paul, you made a psephological argument. I disagreed with it. You responded with a mixture of sarcasm, distortion of what I said and personal denigration. If that’s the way you conduct discussion, I won’t bother with you further.
Kevin Rudd has been all over the Coalition today. I am very impressed.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22586664-12377,00.html
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/15/2059559.htm
He is also asking what would be stopping Howard putting nurses and fire-fighters on AWAs… good question.
Tony Abbott refuses to commit the government to taking over all public hospitals after being challenged by Labor.
Beautiful.
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