After 30 seconds of joy for Coalition supporters, Newspoll comes along a day early to rain on the parade. It shows no change whatsoever from a fortnight ago: Labor ahead 56-44 on two-party preferred, with a primary vote of 48 per cent to the Coalition’s 39 per cent. A small amount of solace might be taken from a 3 per cent increase in the Prime Minister’s remarkably resilient approval rating, now up to 47 per cent, and a rise in dissatisfaction with Kevin Rudd from 20 per cent to 24 per cent. However, both Howard and Rudd are up 1 per cent on preferred prime minister, with Kevin Rudd leading 48 per cent to 39 per cent.
Plaudits to James J for somehow finding the graphic before The Australian put its coverage online.
477 Comments
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Paul k @ 185.
Well said.
I hope Adam remembers the 1998 ALP election loss with 50.98% of the TPP vote.
That loss by Labor was because the Coalition attacked/defended the seats that mattered.
Labor are in a similar position to 1998 (but with a better leader & a better chance) in so much as they need to gain a large number of seats. Therefore a national campaign, national vote and national swing won’t mean anything if the seats aren’t won.
Yay we have a Liberal candidate for Banks.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007seats/banks.shtml
The full deck at last, only two months after they said “all candidates will be announced next week.”
Boys & Girls:
Don’t forget to tune in to Four Corners on ABC TV at 8:30 tonight.
Exclusive Brethren special:
“Quentin McDermott reports on the covert political actions of a reclusive religious sect.â€
Must see TV.
New Australia@112, ummm i’m very much of the older retired generationand guess what? i’m wholeheartedly voting for Rudd!
Adam,
sarcasm: Guilty as charged but you’ve used it before as well.
distortion of what I said: Don’t believe I did but let’s split the difference and say I misunderstood.
personal denigration: No I did not.
However in the interests of harmony I apologise if I offended you. No offense was meant.
From the Milne article:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/yoursay/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_wrong_time_the_wrong_man/
“This reflects the context of Howard’s latest and ultimate self-assessment, when at the time of the APEC summit he rejected the view of the majority of his cabinet that he should stand aside in favour of Peter Costello. Howard will have a reckoning at the bar of history for this resolution.”
In a democracy, how does one reject the view of the majority? What is this saying about the democracy of the Liberal cabinet/party-room?
What a clown.
“That loss by Labor was because the Coalition attacked/defended the seats that mattered. ”
Er no it was one nation preferences – which no longer exist.
And a boor, Paul K.
New Australia @ # 112 argues that the only party fit to run the county is a “no-brainer†and suggest that the “experience†of current Government is the determining factor in determining any future government. This argument if taken to its logicl conclusion that there would never be a change of Government and ignores that the current Government should never have been elected because its members were either inexperienced in Government or had shown themselves to be incompetent in the running of Government.
New Australia also condemns Rudd as being unskilled in international relations ignoring the fact that Rudd is an experienced Diplomat and mixes well with the leaders of other nations as was clearly demonstrated at the recent APEC conference in Sydney.
New Australia has an interesting understanding of the Australian political landscape with his/her comment of “For those who do not have to live in a State run by Labour MPsâ€.
Is that not all of us?
What State or Territory do the Liberals run?
I don’t know much about Queensland politics but it would seem from the elections held in that State that most Queenslanders don’t agree with you assessment of the Labor Party’s management of that State.
The arguments that all the States have problems in providing the services that we all demand are correct. However, the way to solve these problems is that applications of funds to the problem. The only Government with the funds is the Federal Government that is sitting on a surplus in excess of $17B
Your comments on interest rates is a trifle misleading considering that the Treasure at the time of the highest interest rates in the last 40 years is non-other then the current PM see –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBQzSDx1lVk
What is “Waltz Sing Maltidaâ€? I would assume that you mean Waltzing Matilda but I am unsure what your argument is and how it is connected to “traditional aboriginal dance.â€
Just to conclude I am a pensioner and I have to say that the reason that I am as well of as I am is because of the superannuation reforms introduced by the Hawke/Keating Governments. This is not to say that the current Government has not helped. It has, but if it were not for the earlier Labor Governments the policies of the current Government would be worthless.
Coalition Tax “Policy” Yawn.
Looks like the “Bretheren” are well and truly getting into the spirit of things in this election.
{Two senior elders of the Exclusive Brethren sect have gained permanent access to Federal Parliament, as lobbyists, under the sponsorship of two Howard Government MPs.
The Age has discovered that Sydney-based elders Stephen Hales and Warwick John were issued lobbyists’ passes after being vouched for by former minister Danna Vale and the member for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, Michael Ferguson.
Mr Hales, a Sydney businessman, is the brother of Bruce D. Hales, who leads the world-wide sect of 40,000 devotees.
The Age has also confirmed the church has retained Liberal-connected public relations firm Jackson Wells Morris to provide them with political advice and deal with “hostile media”.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/two-mps-sponsor-brethren-lobbyists/2007/10/14/1192300599891.html
DLP, if you read what I said, I said “statewide swing.” Not the national swing, which usually conceals big variations among the states. Beazley lost in 1998 because he failed to get big swings in NSW and SA. I never said that local campaigns don’t matter – I said they matter less than many people, including most candidates, suppose. Good local campaigns may save a few seats on the margin, and in a very close election they may make the crucial difference. But they will not save a government which is facing statewide 2PP swings bigger than the swings needed to win the seats. In the face of a big statewide swing, the seats go down like dominoes.
ruawake @ 208.
Read the numbers again. I gave TPP but you are also highlighting my point.
This election needs to be one by Labor focussing on each seat not the lump sum
Libs announce 5 year tax cut plan:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587386-601,00.html
So are they spending all the surplus, or increasing the GST?
That’s the line Rudd should run.
Thanks paul, let’s move on.
Meanwhile, if anyone’s got five minutes of procrastination time, this is kinda funny…if perhaps a little premature. (Apologies to Robert Plant.)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_zulGddP6o
That’s a pretty big move for an election that will supposedly only allow the ALP to win 4 seats.
Does Costello discuss the likely impact on interest rates of such a move?
# 215 – Gee, that should really keep downward pressure on interest rates, too.
At least John Stirton from the Age seems to be getting the message.
{With many Labor strategists believing they could not win without a stronger primary vote, Kim Beazley was replaced by Kevin Rudd as Labor leader in December 2006.
The response from voters was immediate. From a Nielsen average primary vote of 39 per cent in 2006, Labor’s primary vote has increased to an average of 48 per cent in 2007. This stronger primary vote has underpinned Labor’s two-party lead since the beginning of the year.
Over the past six months, support for the ALP has been remarkably stable: 57 per cent two-party and 48 per cent primary (weighted average of all published polls). While much media attention has been given to apparent shifts in voter sentiment, 94 per cent of the polls since April have been within the margin of error of the 57 per cent average. This suggests very little change in party support in that time.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/measuring-the-public-mood–do-numbers-ever-lie/2007/10/15/1192300611904.html
Woohoo, we got tax cuts! What a surprise!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587579-12377,00.html
Australia’s economic prosperity is the accumulated effect of the States economies and, the States all have Labor governments.
Since Keating/Hawke completed their economic reforms the economy does basically run on auto-pilot apart from RBA rate managent and how Govt accumulates and spends surpluses. Howard/Costello wasted the surpluses, so say ecnomists.
The Costello / Howard ecnomic success is a myth.
I don’t know if it is a good idea to bring out tax policies too soon. By the time you get to the election many would have forgotten the promises. AND it is too easy for the to be gradually picked apart by all and sundry.
Kina @ 181
Howard has given pretty massive tax cuts to high income earners. I’m pretty sure a lot of the yappers in the Media would have benefited from the cuts. I’m reminded of PK’s line about always backing self-interest.
Swing Lowe 193
Hasluck: Liberal member hasn’t done much in the last 3 years and his campaign is luck-lustre. Looks like they have given up. ALP candidate is known to the voters and has been out and about a lot.
Stirling: Liberal member has been putting up large number of posters and adverts saying he has been working hard on local issues. I think more money is being spent here by them for some reason. ALP has a strong candidate who is also campaigning hard. The punters seem to rate this as more of an even battle.
June 2007 Westpoll put the coalition very slightly ahead in both but more so in Stirling.
Speaking of loose lips, Costello did it not only once but twice in the last month. He blew it in Parliament the last sitting day in September by telling people that there would be no more sitting days. He blew it the second time at the AFL GF breakfast by telling people that the election would be on the 24th of November. And this is the future of the Libs leadership? They will have to start at square one after this election because *IF* Costello still has a seat to talk about, the party wouldn’t elect him, his poll numbers are already horrid and that is no secret, it is a fact
. It sure will be interesting to see how much of the “team” factor that the Libs actually use this goround between now and 24 November 
Exactly Kina, you have to wonder how desperate they are to grab attention and momentum at the start of the campaign to get them rolling. This is not a first week campaign move.
.
.
Derek,
Even Boors like me get to vote and get a say. Like it or not.
The leading paragraphs from Stirton’s article.
{THE Labor Party goes into this election having been in front on a two-party preferred basis in every national poll taken since November 2006.
That’s 80 straight polls (and almost 95,000 interviews) from Nielsen, Newspoll, Morgan and Galaxy with the Coalition behind. In the most recent Nielsen Poll (4-6 October) Labor was ahead of the Coalition by 56 per cent to 44 per cent.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/measuring-the-public-mood–do-numbers-ever-lie/2007/10/15/1192300611904.html
Good point, I think it shows how desperate the government is. They know they need to make big gains in the first week or two. If they don’t, then the last month of the campaign is meaningless.
DLP @ 2001
1998 was an abberation. Labor’s 2PP was boosted when it got lots of one nation preferences in safe coalition seats, but not enough to win those seats.
Labor’s majority 2PP in that election was very artificial.
Of course, in other elections the party with a majority of the 2PP has not won the election because it just fell short in a few marginals but all those elections were very close in 2PP terms.
You get 52%+ of the vote, you win easily. You get 55% of the vote, you win in a landslide. When the swing is on, when the tectonic plates move, it doesn’t matter how good local members are, they are out of there.
Tax Cuts? More like the ‘fistfull of Dollars’ tax cuts from when Howard was Treasurer in the Fraser Government – non core promises, heavily advertised and we are still waiting for Howard to deliver them.
Adam @ 213
For the record this was the TPP swing to the ALP in the 1998 election
NSW: 4.10
Vic: 3.23
Qld: 7.17
WA: 5.46
SA: 4.15
Tas: 5.74
NT: 1.92
ACT: – 1.36
The State picture (ie swings) still didn’t translate into seats won.
Look, it is only my view but I still believe in campaigning at the seat level
There have been several cases of bigger-than-expected swings electing people who thought they were token candidates in unwinnable seats, including some who didn’t want to be MPs and did almost no campaigning. One was Jane Hill in Frankston in Vic in 1982 (she had to abandon her nursing training, and had only run on the assurance that she couldn’t win). Another was a guy in Qld in 1989 whose name I forget, who was so horrified at being elected that he ran away to NSW – Goss had to go and find him and get him to resign.
“Treasurer Peter Costello has announced five years of progressive reductions of income tax that will see the current tax system eventually reduced to four tax brackets — 15, 30, 35 and 40 cents in the dollar.
The changes, to be introduced gradually, will see the tax threshholds for lower income earners increased and the reduction of the percentage of tax paid in the top two tax categories — currently 40 and 45 percent.”
–>** ANYTHING **
The tax cuts will certainly get the core/non-core promise treatment.
I believe they will for the most part be non-core or more likely and, I can see it now, Howard weasle words putting them out to 7/8/9 years etc.
The next thing they will do is walk around with cash buying votes with IOUs that they won’t honour.
Labor’s landslide defeat in the 1977 election is often attributed to Gough Whitlam asking the voters to forego the tax cuts offered them Malcolm Fraser, in exchange for more spending. That might have been a factor but Labor was so on the nose then that they would have got blasted out of the water regardless.
One of the promises that Treasurer Howard made in that campaign was to index income tax thresholds, a promise he promptly broke in the next budget.
That’s a bold move by the government to release that now. People aren’t tuned in yet. Also I think that’s all they’re going to be able to promote. I’m still waiting for the post budget bounce due to the tax cuts.
I wonder if the government plans for a change in the business taxes, which is what is really filling the government coffers.
Hey there Paul k (227) – I think Derek was agreeing with you about Tony Abbott, and extending your description of him.
I’m not a big fan of tax cuts – they’re ‘easy’ policies, really. And I think there are national programmes that need the funding.
not cash, just IOUs.
Holy Hell – $30 billion on the first day of the campaign? Costello must be having conniptions over this!!
Sadly, this will play well in the MSM. Would be interesting if the RBA governor came out and said it was lunacy on the interest rates front.
Michelle Grattan asked a question (could not hear it) and Howard and Costello stood there with shocked looks on their faces for a good 10 seconds without saying a word.
Or on checking, perhaps I was wrong. I’ll get my coat…
Josh 194 – how can you be sure that interest rates won’t rise on 7 Nov? Have you polled the members of the RBA board? The value of the Oz dollar indicates that the markets have priced in a rise.
The Coalition and the MSM will now spend the next few weeks hounding the ALP for their tax policy. This has been a weak spot for Rudd and is why the Libs have begun the campaign on it.
I can see the headlines now:
Tax Cut interest Rates to Kill Growth – economists warn……
Scorpio @ 212
That’s disturbing, but doesn’t surprise me. Heard this morning on ABC radio that the EB are bringing in bags of money from the US. Illegal imports, customs involved? Four Corners has it, apparently.
Howard didn’t release his tax policies until late in the 1996 election.
Vague (doesn’t kick in fully till until 2012 – that’s one year before the election after the election after this one) and hugely expensive.
Sound familiar?
These tax cuts are the Medicare Gold of the 2007 campaign.
Alex, Howard and Costello has also factored in a rate rise and so decided to go for broke and will now spend spend spend
Did we get an answer whether these ‘tax cuts’ are core or non core?
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