The Coalition has today adopted a shock-and-awe tactic to kick-start its election campaign: promised income tax cuts to cost $34 billion over three years, accompanied by aspirational talk of an Australia in which 98 per cent pay a marginal tax rate of 35 per cent or less. I won’t presume to discuss the promise’s target market at this point, but it should be noted that tax cuts at the past two budgets produced largely disappointing returns in the opinion polls (although the more recent round can be credited with a slight narrowing in Labor’s lead in August and September). Nonetheless, the announcement will fill the news bulletins with images of Peter Costello in his element, whereas Kevin Rudd will be forced to discuss those tax scales he couldn’t name a few weeks ago.
Centre-left economist John Quiggin makes the following observation on the troubled history of election tax cut promises:
I can recall (perhaps with error) at least two instances of such cuts being promised and then taken back. One was Paul Keating’s L-A-W tax cuts in 1993, which (as implied) were actually legislated in an attempt to increase their credibility. The other was the “Fistful of Dollars” tax cut of 1977 (so named for the ads which showed precisely that) promised by the Fraser-Lynch team going into the election and then (if my fading memory serves) taken back by Lynch’s newly-appointed replacement. Now what was his name again?
409 Comments
Howard/Costello is committing political hara kiri. The tax cut announcement will make an interest rate rise on 6 Nov a certainty.
Is it within the ambit of the Reserve Bank to consider the impact of what is merely an election promise?
The ABC report says
According to the ATO, the current tax-free threshold is $6,000.
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/content.asp?doc=/content/12333.htm&mnu=5053&mfp=001
Is the ABC report wrong? Or is Peter Costello telling porkies?
Maybe, if the promise materially affects the likelihood in the near future of inflation falling outside the target band. In this case – no.
The governments tax plan ran behind speculation about the premiers state of the state address (which is due tomorrow) and a report into the activities of the exclusive brethren on the ABC News in Tasmania.
Is this going to be the extent of the governments tax policy for this election campaign? If so then i don’t think it will have much influence as it will get drowned out as the campaign draws on.
The Sydney Morning Herald has the correct figures for the current tax rates.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/pledge-to-cut-tax/2007/10/15/1192300657771.html
Tax cuts for very high income earners.
Re Barry at #3
In this case the treasurer is not telling lies, but is probably using the wrong terminology… the tax free threshold is indeed $6000 but the effective tax free threshold for ‘low income earners’ after the low income offset is applied is $11000 for those eligible. The offset of $750 cancels out the $750 tax payable on the income from $6001 to $11000.
With a warning that I have not actually seen the proposal, it sounds a lot like they intend to further increase the low income offset from $750 to $1500. The benefit accrues to low and middle income earners, without having the same cost as actually raising the threshold per se, as high income earners miss out as the offset tapers at 4 cents in the dollar when taxable income reaches $30,000.
A risk by the Govt, firing the big gun up front in the hope of jolting some voters over to them. Wouldn’t this be better on a Friday afternoon for the Saturday papers that everyone reads? It was inevitable that a tax policy release would get major attention – so too will Labor’s.
Not so bad for Labor though as it now knows the hand held by the opponent. AND they will get better effect for theirs much closer to the election if they can hold off that long.
Depends how it is played out on TV and to a lesser extent the papers.
The negatives associated with it so far is that it is inflationary, in the never never for many and favors the highest wage earners, in real dollar terms. If they get a play on tv then their effect is lost.
If Labor release some noise tomorrow then it will be quickly pushed into the background.
Except that the taper would presumably kick in at $34000 instead of $30000 under the proposed rates that I have just seen courtesy of the link kindly supplied by Barry.
If the tax cuts/policies announced in the budget didn’t get a peep out of the voters (no poll surge for the Libs), why on earth would this be any different? I think people are smart enough to know when they are being “bought”.
Which would mean the the offset would cut out entirely once taxable income reached $71,500 instead of the current $48,750
No, you aren’t wrong Barry. I just did my taxes last month and the tax free threshhold came into play for me. I just skirted in under it
so I can verify, yes it is $6000. Costello is smoking something 
shows how desparate the government are to get some poll movement early in the campaign. Remember the budget tax cuts as well as other sweeteners lauded as policy genius got no bounce at all…
The fistful of dollars (with a Liberals give you tax cuts Labor gives you nothing byline) worked a treat in 1977, but that was of course just two years after 1975.
With an 11 year old government with some credibility issues and a fairly popular opposition leader the strategy is certainly risky, but what have they got to lose?
Actually probably this… Rudd and Swan can now promise any combination of tax cuts and expenditure commitments up to the value of this announcement and still claim economic credibility… a promise of a less expensive cut combined with some infrastructure spending and a ‘I won’t get into a bidding war’ response could be just the ticket for Mr Rudd, IMHO.
According to the glossy brouchur I received in the mail with Malcom Turbull’s smiling face on the front cover, the government is taking climate change so seriously, that they are willing to spend$3.5 billion on fixing the problem between now and 2015.
Certainly puts the coalitions priorities into focus when they promise $34 billion in tax cuts over the next three years.
Really, getting ridiculous guys. I’m looking forward to November 24th.
A metaphorical Bribe with a capital B.
The Reserve Bank ought at least factor in any increased consumer confidence and hence spending as a result of both parties inevitable tax cut promises.
Labor cannot match the cuts for reasons of perceptions. But their early release really suggests desperation from a govt that in the past kept its big promises until AFTER Labor’s.
Surely the ALP will (a) quickly attack the cuts as irresponsible in size and potential affect on rates; then (b) come in with a more modest set of promises.
ps I note the govt is implicitly claiming it is not yet in caretaker mode, and that this is a ‘govt’ announcement. Would they dare use taxpayer funded ads (eg mailouts) to promote this? (On top of the rort of MP communication allowances being hoarded for campaigning).
They can’t. They went into caretaker mode as of midday today.
ShowsOn it was my understanding that it goes into caretaker on Wednesday. Today was merely the prorogation of the parliament.
This is different to the tax cuts given. A tax cut that is handed out does not get any gratitude because people believe either government would keep the new rates in place.
This is a potential tax cut that only gets enacted if the Coalition is re-elected. I think it is not a bad idea in political terms. It means that Rudd has to “Me too” or else respond with alternate policy. Any alternate policy will benefit some and disadvantage others. This might be a wedge that Rudd has to answer.
Actually caretaker mode only begins on Wednesday at noon.
This is a policy done by Treasury NOT the Liberal Party.
It is another reason why it will be hard for the ALP to win – they have to also defeat the policies thought out and costed by the entire public service.
Has anyone noticed that comedians are constantly using the material that both parties are nearly the same. Like i posted many months ago the only way the ALP could win was to be a newish version of the same model. The ALP cannot win as the ALP. Sad really
If Labor fails to respond quickly (and Wayne Swann’s initial comment they will “study the detail” indicates they will not) then expect the Coalition to go into a full offensive on Labor’s “lack of an economic plan”, “lack of a tax policy”, they will trot out Rudd’s blunder over the tax scales again, they will seize the agenda for as long as Labor allows the question to linger, or finds a way to change the subject.
I agree Flash. Labor is very slow off the ball. Where’s all this vision we’re meant to be seeing? So far I’ve heard nothing from them.
Labour does not have to act hastily, to do so would make them look like they are chasing the Libs and let the Libs set the agenda.
You dont want the Libs to start setting the agenda, Labour has been setting the agenda alll year and the Libs have been chasing them.
$17 Billion plus surplus last year plus these tax cuts of $34 biliion dollars.
Surplus equals about $850 for every man, woman child in Australia and tax cuts another $1,700.
That $850 came out of my family’s pocket, 5 in my family, $4,250 ripped off me. I want my $4,250 back now! Howard and Costello ripped it off through underfunding medicare and hospitals, abolishing the dental scheme and allowing pterol prices to soar so they could get more revenue.
That surplus and their tax cuts are funded by their lazy, inefficient policies.
In all probability, we’re far too obsessed with the latest policies, gaffes, etc. It is highly probable that the promises, etc, during this campaign will make very little difference to the polls. Howard and Rudd will simply cancel each other out, and unless one of them makes a really major foul-up, nothing much will change. Labor will win easily. Nothing suggests the govt will get any traction with this policy; nothing’s given them much traction before.
Arbie, nothing stops people from using tax cut money to buy a more efficient car, childcare, or private health insurance.
I tend to disagree that Labor has been setting the agenda all year.. APEC, Budget, Aborigines.. Johnnie to me has been and has made an absolute hash of it.. APEC collapsed in a heap for him…
The tax cuts are a bribe.. and guess who likes them- Trevor Hendy and where do his politics lie?
Labor should not do same and if it does than we will know that a Labor government will just tinker at the edges because it will be hamstrung by tax cuts…
Lord D i think you are right… though i do think the last week will be important… was in 1993, many people these days make up their mind with a few days to go…
I am sure the Govt would love to force Labor’s hand on tax. 6 weeks to go guys a very long time and a lot of noise to come. Labor is not slow and they should be deliberate. If they want to respond then release some noise on something else tomorrow.
If pressed they can actually designate a date for the release of their tax policy – that will keep the press happy. They can then surprise everyone be releasing it a few days early.
This is one of those big one day media events, there will be more of them throughout the campaign from both sides. There is nothing Labor can do about these things – they are orchestrated.
I think tomorrow’s noise might include something about the Exclusive Bretheren? Or the Australian/Indian plane having to reland after hitting a flock of birds, or both.
Howard looks rather petty explaining why the worm should be banned on ACA.
Also didn’t he say the current interest rate is 6.25? It is infact 6.5
I didn’t hear his answer for average weekly earnings, I think he said $50,000 per year.
This whole tax cuts = interest rate rises in a fascinating situation. Yes, it’s true (ish) but the reason why it’s true is that we don’t have the capacity in the economy to deal with the increased spending power of the consumer (us… our money…). Why don’t we have that capacity? Not nearly enough spending on infrastructure, not nearly enough on education (more immigration, particularly skilled would also be handy, but I make no comment on the ‘carrying capacity’ angle of the Oz landmass).
This is exactly where this government has been asleep at the wheel for the past 11 years. I too am for as much private investment in these things as possible, but if you’re not achieiving it (this is the idea behind Workchoices, making a more conducive environment for business so they invest), then you really need, as government to ensure it happens anyway. There needs to be a base line of investment to ensure the capacity of the economy to grow… Coalition would rather we all just worked harder and paid higher interest rates, it seems….
The government is on 44 percent TTP. They need to gain 1% per week between now and the election. Whether you think the tax cuts announcements were dumb or not, if they get the government a 1% kick they’ll have done their job.
They are out of the gate and racing. They are not going to roll over and play dead.
First line should say IS not ‘in’…
Tracy Grimshaw just tripped up JWH on ACA:
Tracy: What is the current interest rate Mr Howard.
JWH: 6.25%
Tracy: Its actually 6.5% Mr Howard
You should have seen the look on the PM’s face it was priceless.
He is totally out of touch
JWH “you live by the sword you die by the sword”.
Tracy Grimshaw now what a hard hitter she is..
So Johnnie gets the interest rate wrong??!! Interest rates mean a lot more to the average voter than tax rates, which Rudd messed up with.
Ha ha de har ha.
Poor Mr Howard, stuck in the past trying to forget the last interest rate rise.
Marky are you another alias for Glen?
Now Howard has added another demand to the NO WORM policy.
He will insist that he goes on A Current Affair AFTER Rudd so that he knows what the questions will be for the “pop quiz”.
As I said previously the pressure is on the Libs they are more likely to make mistakes.
Mr Rudd got the interest rate correct when asked by Tracy on ACA.
Kevin does better on ACA – 6.5% = correct.
The question about Average Weekly Earnings was odd. Both JWH and KR quoted pa figures. Not sure what JWH was referring to wth “about 50,000″.
KR seemed to be referring to full time earners with 56,000. Avge Weekly Earnings according to ABS is $867 or $45,000 pa
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6302.0/
Some places, tax cuts don’t swing elections. After all, if the ALP stands up tomorrow and says “that’s $32bn we’ll spend on hospitals and the elderly poor sad orphans with big moist eyes”, will that unclinch the deal? ‘Cause it’s easy for Rudd to fire back with a “cutting programmes” schtick. More than that I think, it’s just an opening salvo. After all, why play your trump card now? Makes you wonder what the trump card is.
Far from it.. I’m a leftie AM and lefties don;t watch silly commericial current affair shows which concentrate on weight and migrants and rarely back up their stories with strong research..
AM
Howard on interest rates is same as when he pretended to understand that high petrol prices were hurting people, he has been getting free petrol for decades, courtesy of the tax payer.
SMH is runninga poll on the tax cuts, majority prefer they be spent onhealth, education and infrastructure.
Makes sense, fund Medicare and hospitals properly and people pay less for doctors bills, $110 dollars it cost me to take my daughter to the doctor last time.
Fund education and we can train our kids up here instead of importing TWA doctors and other specialists.
Fund the ACCC properly and put in a decent head and we can then stop this rip off in petrol prices.
Release more federal land and fund a decent scheme and we may see housign become more affordable.
Fund dental and we may not see pensioners ripping out their own teeth with pliers.
All these mega surpluses and the ability to fund tax cuts come from Howard and Costello ripping off the serives to be provided and overtaxing to the limit.
That is quite devastating, I reckon.
Howard doesn’t even know what interest rates are – the most crucial figure in the entire economic equation, for the ordinary punter. And this on the very day when he has arguably taken a step that could bump them higher. I assume this blunder could well overshadow the tax cut announcement since it goes to the very core of much economic pain out there.
actually.. he said $58000
you know whose footnotes Kevin Rudd needs to look at? Maybe the leader of the only social democratic government in this region: In 1999, in New Zealand, Helen Clark lead her Labo(u)r party to victory, promising to put taxes up (only the top rate), and they haven’t come down since. And she’s been a big spender on social programmes: like capped doctors visits. I’m saying, if the Coalition wants to win an election on finance, it’s an easy thing to swat, and any polls taken since yesterday won’t show much movement, I think. Maybe the announcement just saved Higgins.
Rudd is right in holding back on his tax policy. The first few weeks of the campaign are more important for the Libs than Rudd, they are the ones that have to make up ground.
The more Rudd keeps them guessing the more pressure he applies and the more likely they will fall into disarray and desperation after using all they’ve got far too early. What’s important is what’s on voters minds when they actually vote and Rudd needs to capture their attention in those last 2 weeks of the campaign not now.
Let it wash through and allow voter cynicism to erode it. After all it’s not like the voter can get their hands on it now, it’s over the next 5 years.
Do you reckon they will sensationalise it the way they did Rudd for not committing tax scales to memory?
Kerry O’Brien asking the tough and hard questions on the 7.30 Report to Howard..Whilst Tracy Grimshaw asks the dour and silly stuff…
This is risky stuff from the Rodent and Smirky. If the polls don’t improve in the next week or so, their gamble will have failed and they will be well and truly screwed.
I think it will get a mention because Howard is meant to be the guy who keeps interest rates low. The fact he doesn’t know the interest rate makes it pretty easy to make fun of his claim.
He didn’t look too impressed at the end of the interview!
Howard getting grilled by Kerry O’ Brian now – 7.30 report!
Kina.. I think they should. Getting the interest rate wrong, which is a single very important figure, is a bigger blooper, in my humble opinion, than being unsure of the various tax margins.
Marky a lot of voters watch ACA, generally I dont but when I knew the candidates were on I thought I would watch.
If you saw the PM’s face you would have thought he had wished the ground would open up and swallow him, it was a major error on his part, makes him look out of touch and an L Plater economically
If the tax cut helps the LNP a little then too bad. Labor needs to think of a 6 week plan.
I wonder how $10 billion on hospitals and $15 billion tax cuts for middle-lower wage earners would go etc..
Howard not into personal attacks…LOL…LOL…LOL!
Bad footwork by ABC researchers not to be across Howard’s ACA blooper to follow up in Kerry O’Brien interview (which I think is live).
Costello made a far bigger stuff up than Rudd and it was never sensationalised so I doubt the MSM will go after Howard.
Howard struggling as usual.. I hope someone has the heart pills for mr sneaky.. and mr sneaky calls Labor leaders weak and he won’t debate them. now who is weak John…
Tell me how the 7.30 report went – I don’t want to watch it if it is annoying.
I love Kevie…but it annoys me when he doe’s the finger count off!
Howard was in a bad mood on 7.30 Report, very snarky and irritable!
On what is supposedly a bad day for him, Rudd looks far better, at least in my biased opinion.
LOL, it may annoy you but animation is good presentation for the punter. Better than sitting there like a smug Howard, err I mean dummy
Kev’s on FIRE!!
Kev should develop additions to his arsenal of mannerisms.
That’s what a gaffe on A.C.A. does to you. He would’ve prefered to bugger up on 7:30 Report, because less people watch it.
OK L.I.E (66)
I am absolutely under-whelmed by these talks of tax cuts. The last lot went whoosh in to higher interest rates even before I had the opportunity to smell the crisply minted notes.
This weeks inflation figure is the numebr to watch.
This time around the tax cuts will be gone before you get them.
It is a real class act to spend $34 billion and not have a cracker to show for it.
Howard is looking cantankerous, snarly and resentful that he’s not getting his usual free and cosy ride from interviewers. I honestly can’t see him lasting the distance this time around.
OK I will watch the 7.30 report when it comes on. Like to see Kev on fire – hopefully some quotes to make the papers and radio.
And here’s some light entertanment on YouTube – Bennelong Prime Minister (to Zeppelin’s Rock ‘n’ Roll)…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8_zulGddP6o
Antony is on the ABC talking about which states are important.
“It is a real class act to spend $34 billion and not have a cracker to show for it.”
How much more useful to apply $34 billion to Hospitals, health and education!
Howard’s day is about to go from good to bad.
Four Corners 8:30 tonight ABC TV.
Must say this is the best i have seen Rudd.. straight to the point and with facts.. and the hands well actually it is a good thing to use your hands because it shows you have knowledge.
On many other occasions i have seen Rudd he has had the Beazley’s about him and tended to waffle…
Howard & Costello have squadded over $400 billion in revenue by vote buying instead of investing in our country inferstructure & training up young Australians. We have a huge skill shortage & all we get is bribes.
Shame Howard…SHAME!
I know you will all disagree with me but I thought Howard was pretty feisty and by comparison the interview with Rudd was a bit dull. It was like Howard was the young guy with the fire in his belly and Rudd was the wise old man putting everyone to sleep.
Evening all.
Fair dinkum…. Settle petals,
This a 34 billion dollar headline.That’s its purpose (if its not, these guys really are off with the fairies).
Tell me this – if you are a second income earner in a 1.5 income household where you once earned $25,000 a year, but now earn $22,000 a year because of the loss of penalty rates and overtime due to Workchoices, would you change your vote *_BACK_* to the Coalition because they are promising you an extra $14 a week in 3 years time?
Would you switch your vote back because the government has promised to give you back 25% of what you’ve lost because of Workchoices?
Would your other half do the same?
No.
The problem with 34 billion dollar tax cuts is that when they breakdown to low and low-middle income earners, they mean jack sh*t when balanced against Workchoices, the fear of workchoices, the cost of childcare, increased housing costs (be they mortgage or rental costs) and how those things combine to reduce discretionary income which funds lifestyle and perceived standards of living.
This isnt meant to buy votes, its meant to buy headlines, to change the media narrative and to give the government space to run other campaigns to buy votes.
If the government and its advisors actually believe this will help them change votes over the full length of the campaign, Howard is eyeball deep in the brown stuff to a greater level than we’d all previously thought. (Except for you Gus, with your visions of 1993 Canadian madness
)
Rudd doesnt need to change his plan and his policy release timing to deal with this.He certainly doesnt need to ‘me-too” $32 billion up the wall the to achieve three fifths of five eighths of sweet f**k all.
Your right PK ….Disagree!
You’re right Paul, I do disagree with you.
The PM doesn’t care about interest rates they don’t affect him, that’s why he doesn’nt know them.
If he had a mortgage he would know and care, proves he’s is out of touch with the real world
Poor performance by KR – this guy has been calling for an election for months and the best he can do is trot out cliches like “I am proposing new leadership”.
Surely Surely Labor is sitting on a tax policy, tell me they werent so arrogant as to not have even prepared one? To not even be able to name a date for its release? – ha ha – there goes the first week or two of the campaign for KR.
Do you know on what he is basing the claim that he has barristers on his front bench???
Basically he points to 3 people to refute the Labcest problem – KR himself, Craig Emerson and Peter Garrett. The problem with Labcest is not going to go away it seems ……….
Aussieguru01 @ 64.
If it annoys you now wait til the end of the campaign when he starts taking his shoes and socks off.
Edward are you drunk, you seem to be rambling?
Howard really struggled to counter any of Kerry’s challenges. His attempt to claim that the increased health spending by the states is because of his government and the GST was a ripper – he seems to have forgotten that the states gave up most of their own tax revenue streams in exchange for that.
Hi EJS …ready for another slagging match?
No AM laughing.
AG01 – I am just here to give objective facts.
Well said possum!
And Howard was as dreadful as I have ever seen him on the 7.30 Report. He is in real danger of losing it completely.
By contrast Rudd was assured, confident and relaxed.
Mark @86,
Please. No More!
Joe Ludwig, (shadow attorney general) was a barrister. I think so was Robert Mclleand.
Good EJS…now get those beer goggles off!
I’ll be the first to disagree with you Paul K. I thought the PM was defensive, probably unsettled by being de-railed by someone like the lass from ACA, and KR spoke well, to the point, not about to be rattled by the “Great Tax Cut” lurch into the unknown of the impact on interest rate rises, we’ll have a look at how it works with our tax modelling and get back to everyone when we’ve responsibly done an analysis. Oh, and nice wedge between Howard and Costello built in to the commentary. Bewdiful!
ESJ,
More like objectional fiction!
William, it is not an election commitment. Because the tax cut appears in the Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook Statement (MYEFO), it is existing government policy. If Labor wins but decides not to give the tax cut, they will need to announce it as a savings measure in next year’s Budget.
Joe Ludwig was part of the AWU just like dad.
AG01 – nah mate – there seems to be some outrage that JWH is actually fighting back. It seems some of you were expecting him to just cop a good old fashioned whopping without a fight. Your going to have earn it.
#85
Who wants barristers anywhere within a political party? A number of the most highly paid barristers seem to earn it by convincing judge and jury that high level crims aren’t crims at all, or getting them off by finding obscure legal loopholes (See the case of the ‘gentleman’ from Perth who ‘won’ the America’s Cup, as a good example of the barrister’s trade!)
Possum @ 81
Well said about tax cuts and Work Choices, but even for those not yet affected by Work Choices the main point is the mega surpluses and proposed tax cuts are finaced by cutting funding to essential services.
The main benefit of the tax cuts are as usual in the high income tax bracket and the piddling amount that trickles down to the others will be swamped by increased health, education, petrol and interest costs.
What was it Amanda said, a milkshake and a hamburgher.
He was also a barrister. Or doesn’t that count because he isn’t a member of the Liberal party?
AG01 & ShowsOn
“Glen” asked me to let you all know he would be busy in the Senator’s office this week and might be a bit delayed with the blogging. He is hoping to organise “Tabitha” to come on this week to pull blog duty.
Who cares if the Labor Party has a team full of ex unionists.. these are people who helped and provided holidays, sick leave, mininum rates of pay, and health and safety within the workplace but oh.. they are so bad Edward St John… people who give to people their livelihoods…
Howard was worse than I had hoped for. He is resentful of being questioned and is allowing his intolerance to show through. Forget the Howard myth, the guy is 68 yrs old, used to being treated with reverence and not used to being grilled so hard, he is not handling it well at all.
This is going to be a great campaign, 6 weeks is a long time and Rudd is going to push him very hard all the way, I can’t see Howard holding up.
where is Labor’s tax policy?
They will be pulling something, that is for certain!
Labcest is Labcest Marky Marky what ever you call it.
As a Green I would have thought you would want it exposed and dealt with.
Harry Organs,
You are welcome to disagree. I just called it as I saw it. Just gave my honest opinion which seems to increasingly be a sin on this site.
What’s the current interest rate?
Edward can I ask what you do for a living?
Possum, he got the headline, but completely stuffed up the T.V. follow up. If a fluff from ACA can trip him up, he’s cactus.
I like to think of myself as a renaissance man AG01.
“where is Labor’s tax policy?”
Waiting for an apropriate time. :0
Am I the only one who wishes KR would stop saying ‘Education revolution’? I know the idea is to keep it broad to people can decide for themselves what that means, but that’s so broad it doesn’t mean anything.
Yes I know what Labor’s policy is and it’s good, but to the average punter KR may as well make up a word and then keep saying it every second sentence.
Glen what is the current interest rate?
Your PM has no Idea?
So Howard has been done over by Tara Brown and Tracey Grimshaw in successive nights.
Apparently, Laura Bingle is up next.
How’s he going to go when the serious questioning begins.
Might be time to put the old dog down eh!
I suppose when you are “squatting”you don’t need to know the current interest rate.
Why do you need a policy on tax? Why do you have to keep giving tax cuts?
I’m pretty sure Antony Green said that because of Daylight Savings in Tasmania – the 7.30 Report is done live at 6.30 so it goes to Tassie first, then is replayed nationally for the East Coast (we’re two hours behind in WA so that’s a rather moot point for us
Time to meet the Jesus people!
# 106 Glen Says: October 15th, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Where is the report on the actual impact of workchoices that the liberal government refuses to release?
The PM has no idea on the current interest rate.
That’s probaly why he doesn’t care if he pushes them up further, it doesn’t affect him.
Edward,
Do they pay you for that?
ESJ says ‘I like to think of myself as a renaissance man AG01.’
- priceless Eddy. I ask this question as so I can figure out if you got your feet in the ‘real world’ !
Since you are a ‘ renaissance man’ then I take it you will VOTE 1 Kevin Rudd.
ESJ,
Please out yourself again. It is unworthy to lead others on.
Paul K. , was just disagreeing, don’t think it’s a sin. I would have thought one of the fantastic things about the site that William provides, is that there are a range of people who can contribute who have something meaningful to say. Personally, I often keep my fingers off the keyboard, and simply read/listen, sometimes, when invited by another blogger to comment on what they’ve said, such as yourself, if I’ve observed something different, I’ll say so. No sin, either way, just dialogue, vs. the sometimes amusing slanging match that sometimes erupts. Cheezus (see Kath & Kim) it’s politics.
Paul K,
Two points:
1. I support your right to free speech, I too have detected the current of intolerance and pseudo Stalinism on this blog. It must be fought.
2. There is work for anybody who is able bodied in Australia regardless of what their skills are. Structural unemployment is a different story ie for the disabled, ill, certain racial groups etc.
I missed ACA – an oversight I deliberately commit regularly I’ve got to admit
Can anyone give me a quick overview of Howards bungle and how it played?
Howard still understands productivity and the tax rates something that Rudd has no conception of…one could forgive a slip of .25% rather than creating new tax thresholds that dont exist lol.
Where is Labor’s tax policy?
No tax policy no Government!
Edward,
So does that mean you are paid to be a Renaissance Man? How do I get a job like that?
Please dont bait us ESJ…poor tactics I’m still remember when you said one of my Blogs was from North Korea.
Rudd did his interview second so he knew the question was coming and was looking at a cheat sheet when he was asked what were interest rates…
Howard on the news tonight making his best attempt to sound convincing on future plans for Workchoices reminded me way too much of Nixon’s “I am not a crook”.
I think the tax cut promise will be met with a fair bit of scepticism by the community (too close to polling day). The Liberals probably think that by putting out their policy they’ve increased the pressure on Labor. IMO, they blinked and have given Labor the chance to match it or get close now, with the benefit of seeing their costings and assumptions.
I don’t want to get personal, but having Costello at the launch devalued it for them. As competent as he is, Costello always looks to pleased with himself, which won’t play well with the taxpayers.
The gallery seem to be thinking that this a big campaign hit and just what Howard needed. Time will tell…..
Ah, that would also explain why the video streams were already available online while I was watching the show.
[cross posted on http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/
Right now at SMH/Age/Brisbane Times, the tax story is not in the top 5 on any of them – and that includes stories posted after 5pm today (shark story at Herald)
At the Australian, it’s the number 2 story, less of a surprise, but still not #1, and while ‘Rudd in trouble in Qld’ is #1 at the Courier Mail, the tax story doesn’t rate on any of the other News Properties
That doesn’t look like a knock out punch to me.
j
GG – out myself? I dont understand. As to my s.xuality?
Possum,
Tracey and her investigators walked in on his electoral office and asked if he was selling dodgy old policies as new. Apparently, Howard put his hand over his face and raced to a COM car which raced off at high speed narrowly missing the the reporter and the assorted representatives of the media. Apparently, a camera man has feigned an injury and is demanding an apology, compensation and a chance to tell the world how much his life has been tranformed by the trauma.
Shame, Howard, Shame.
It seems his economics adviser is Traci Grimshaw, because she has to tell him what the interest rate is. I guess he will call her on November 7th so he knows what the new rate is.
Traci Grimshaw asked him what the current intrest rate is. Howard said 6.25%. Traci Grim Shaw said “it is actually 6.5%”
No need to make up lies Glen. Howard was caught out fair and square.
Frankly, I don’t give a ducks nuts about tax policy
I’m perfectly happy with how the government collects money, I’m more interested in how they SPEND it.
The more they give back to me, the less likely I am to have my son seen in a timely manner at an emergency department at 3am on a Saturday.
I don’t know about you, but I’d pay $15 a week to make sure that base was covered.
Possum – it played bad, real bad. It’s the one thing he ought know.
You’d expect some further coverage tomorrow, but then again the campaign caravan will roll on quickly.
GG, that was pretty funny. LOL.
I am impressed. Rather than a knee jerk reaction, Labor is being sensibly measured in its policy response to today’s Coalition tax splurge, hopefully allowing this issue to dissipate within the coming weeks.
Monday October 15, 08:07 PM
Howard stumbles with interest rate gaffe
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071015/2/14oi1.html
In the first stumble of the 2007 federal election, Prime Minister John Howard has failed in a television interview to correctly state the Reserve Bank of Australia’s official interest rate.
The reserve bank’s official rate was increased to 6.5 per cent in August this year – the fifth rate rise of a quarter of a percentage point since the 2004 election.
But when asked at the end of a Nine Network interview on Monday night if he could nominate the reserve bank’s official rate, Mr Howard answered: “It’s 6.25 per cent”.
In a separate interview on Nine aired shortly after, Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd correctly quoted the figure of 6.5 per cent.
You can rewatch Howard’s gaffe here:
http://ninemsn.video.msn.com/v/en-au/v.htm?t=m164
You have to watch an advert first though.
Glen at 130 said:
“Howard still understands productivity”
Howard and Costello combined wouldnt know one end of a data envelopment analysis from the other end of stochastic frontier analysis.
(insert economist joke)
Although they do seem to have an interesting treatment of slacks, usually by promoting them into such auspicious places as the Ministry for Gallipoli Theme Parks.
Thanks Arthur: are you saying the reason Howard left the writs open 3 days was so it can say Labor is reneging on an established ‘government ‘policy?
The caretaker convention is so loose it is not even clear when it commences. Stephen Bartos, presumably relying on public service manuals, says it doesn’t commence till the writs issue and hence the campaign officially begins. Understandably the PS needs a certain date and due notice. But in reality the campaign officially began with the PM’s announcement, and the proroguing of Parlt today in that context is the withdrawal not just of legislative power, but of the PM’s ability to prove support in the Reps. That’s certainty enough for the PS to enter ‘caretaker’ mode.
Nothing aside from that convention stands in the way of the Executive deciding today to send a letter on government letterhead to all Australians promoting the tax policy,the letter of course to go out during the campaign. Labor could jump up and down to stir resentment, but Howard would already have his obfuscation ‘it was a govt decision on govt policy made before he writs issued’
Huh, he’s a lib, it’s what they do.
Glen, what exactly is the relationship between productivity and tax rates.
Sorry, try this link instead:
http://ninemsn.video.msn.com/v/en-au/v.htm?g=730b93b4-4f8c-4fc4-abab-15f2a2eb6c27&f=&fg=copy
S i am with you totally who cares? it is one bunch of people trying to ensure the greed vote followed by another.. one day S this country will need every cent it gets when our resources run out…
Thanks folks (even including you Greeny
)
Ouch
That’ll go down well with the tabloids tomorrow.
Howard better be careful that people don’t start referring to him as a doddering old coot.He cant afford gaffes like that.
It was priceless. Someone put it up on youtube so I can watch it over and over.
Grimshaw was just giving him a “pop quiz” with the two questions being what is the average weekly wage, and what is the current interest rate. I can’t believe Howard got it wrong. Too good to be true really.
After Tracey said “it’s actually 6.5%” Howard grunted and looked rather annoyed. The pop quiz was meant to be the end of the interview, so that was that…. Howard f*#ked up and grunted loudly in annoyance. It’s already hitting the online news, with any luck will be on telly tonight and tomorrow too.
Enough with the politics. We want the important questions answered.
Edward,
What do you do for a living?
The level politics has got to.. concentrating on the gaffes of people instead of the policies…
D’oh… too slow.
Sid Marris has picked up Howard’s interest rates gaffe:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22589987-11949,00.html
I must agree with Paul K. I thought Rudd could have done better on the 7.30 Report. Whenever Kerry tried to pin him on a topic (eg can Labor lower unemployment?), Rudd just attacked Howard’s record. That’s pretty easy to do, but I really wanted to see whether Rudd could answer questions on his own behalf, rather than deflecting them. He also crapped on with his cliches of “fresh ideas” etc a bit much.
I do agree that it was sensible for Rudd not to rise to the bait about when he would release his tax policy, or whether he would match Howard’s.
Howard was quite feisty, though extremely unconvincing in refuting Kerry’s suggestion that the mining boom was delivering all the prosperity.
And one other thing I noticed on the news…Costello is SO MUCH TALLER than Howard. I’ve seen both of them in the flesh many times over the years, but you hardly ever see them standing together (for obvious reasons – they can’t stand the sight of one another). But today’s news conference on the tax announcement was quite striking visually. Dunno what it means to voters…might mean nothing, or they might find Costello a bit impressive than previously.
Yep as usual the big questions on current affair..
Yes, I noticed that too. Howard is looking more and more like a garden gnome every day. Perhaps he is shrinking. One day he may return to Kirribilli to live in the garden.
I suspect the tax-cuts are part and parcel with Howard’s reconciliation speech – they’re aimed squarely at winning back small-l liberals (or doctor’s wives if you must) such as myself. As many posters say, they will primarily benefit the leafy suburbs dwellers who earn relatively high wages, so it seems safe to assume they are the target audience. Indeed, I was talking about this with a friend a few months back when Possum analysed the Crosby-Textor report. Tax cuts are one of the few areas left for the Coalition to talk about, and Howard must be hoping that they will woo back small-l liberals who are swaying to Labor as a result of their dislike of Howard’s social policies. Of course, whether it will work is another matter (it won’t for me). The Liberals should have a) left the announcement until later in the campaign, and b) been bolder, and engaged in genuine and dramatic taxation reform.
Take a big chill pill everyone! remember “TEH BOUNCE” tax cuts back at budgie time?
No? Me neither- someone reminded me today. Guess I wasnt paying attention in masterclass, like 56 %2PP of the punteriat.
fact is, it aint a circuit breaker.
As for boring predictable cries of “welease the detail, Wudd”, didn’t Howard just release his tax policy, like, as late as today?
And second, after pissfarting around for months on the election,why should anyone supposed to take any forthcoming urgings for timely clarification seriously?
Nah. If I were Rudd, this is precisely where Id make good on the promise to spend less than the drunken sailor – and suggest instead that the $34B will go into infrastructure.
After all, what $15pw compared to saving 10k a year per kid, for the mortgage, becasue we’ve got decent public secondary schools?
So, why wasn’t the wouldbemaybe leader on 7.30 Report, telling the electorate that this flagship electoral policy was only the start of his magnificent and beneficient reign? Didn’t even get a supporting role.
The problem for the Libs in this Bretheren problem is how it plays with the wider Christian audience. The penticostals are seriously against this form of cult likened as it is to the Jehova witneses and mormons. If they are linked during this then their vote here would evaperate strongly when the voters link it to faith (as they do).
The rest of the christian faith will have their personal views move towards Labor in the same vein.
Still waiting for the answer “renaissance man” –
Not what you think you are…but what you really do!
….me think you share a weird ‘psycho-Howard’ mannerism.
And yes, real bad slip-up from Rodent. Bahah! Call day two for Rudd.
Only complete nerds know the tax-scales. But anyone with a mortgage knows the official interest rates.
Also have to add my personal view that if you don’t vote you should stay away from the process alltogether.
Yeah CW @ 163, it does make a mockery of this smooth and orderely “succession” plan. I thought it would have made more sense to have PC doing the tax thing.
This has more potency than the tax announcement;
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22587483-11949,00.html
Thanks for the link Shows On.
That interview was 6 degrees of awful for Howard.He looked like a cranky old man that hadn’t had his nap.
Hear, hear!
whilst not attributing statistical substance to it, an amusing trip around the australian’s coredata voting intention poll has nearly all of brisbane outer metro as voting green. bennelong is 65% labour and even the north coast (nsw) has gone red. oh if all this was true….
p.s. great website guys
#164 Crikey Whitey:
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Vice-Captain on Lateline. Given that the tax announcement was the only major campaign story of the day, it might get a reprise. Hopefully Costello and Swan will come out for Round 2.
No, bugger it. I’m a convert. A whole $2.45 in five years’ time will do me. This has changed my vote and my life. I am now rusted-on Liberal and you commie pinkoes donkeys voters better take heed.
Thanks for joining Derek. remember the daily telie blog site is still open for business.
Ptobias 173, agree. But its a bit late in the day for many, so it does kind of relegate it.
Adam has previously identified me as a Young Liberal student from the North Shore of Sydney – AG01, Paul K.
“Finance Minister Nick Minchin told the right-wing reform group the HR Nicholls Society last year that there was always more to do in industrial relations in (a) speech urging deregulation.”
Yeah like telling these dingbats about how much power they have under the Work Choices legislation. These capitains of industry has no idea how much power they were given until it was explained to them later. In fact they were still crying out for more.
Howard’s interest rate stuff up won’t go too badly for him because all the papers tomorrow will carry the tax cuts in big headlines. I think it may come back to haunt him a little with the “out of touch” theme etc.
But yes I agree with Marky, the focus should be on policy debate, not little slip-ups. Then again I’m sure PJK didn’t forget tax/interest rates too often.
Great line from Murph at LP. hehehe:
“But when asked at the end of a Nine Network interview on Monday night if he could nominate the reserve bank’s official rate, Mr Howard answered: “It’s 6.25 per centâ€.
In a separate interview on Nine aired shortly after, Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd correctly quoted the figure of 6.5 per cent.â€
Well, he always said that interest rates would be lower under the Liberals.
ESJ…Adam identified you as a North Shore Young Lib…. I dont care for that…Can you please share with me what you do for a crust? If not I wont loose any sleep about it!
7:30 Report: appearing inordinately anxious, aggrieved and desperate for a bloke who had just given his imprimatur to 34 Billion Bucks worth of pork going forward, El Rodente actually called Kerry, “Tony”, before quickly correcting himself. Not quite the interest rate gaffe on commercial telly earlier today, nevertheless, it enhances the perception that he’s rooted. I was disappointed that Rat Features didn’t reprise his “begging for his work personal Work Choice” number that he blurted out last time he fronted inquisitor O’Brien. Since he’ll never be able to bend it like Beckham, I dream of the day King Kirribilli Coconut loses it like Klaus Kinski.
Yeah. I’d like to see that.
By contrast, granted it’s always an advantage to be face-to-face in interviews, Ruddster looked the epitome of comfortable and relaxed.
Re the L Plate ads as referred to.
I wonder how this goes down with the purportedly valuable hearts, minds and votes of the younger demographic. Everyone knows you have to spend a few months and effort on your Ls. Then you get your license.
PS I assume the taxpayer is still funding such ads.
Oh alright. I am a historian.
Edward,
Guess we have to play 20 questions. Are you a people smuggling, slave trading, drug courier capitalist who exploits the workers and rapes the earth’s resources while avoiding paying taxes?
And if you are, is your last name Packer or Murdoch?
OK – we have all overanalysed today to death. If you want to summarise the headlines for tomorrow:
#1 Howard gives massive tax cuts
#2 Labor to delay response (or in The Oz, on the back foot) to tax cuts
#3 Howard makes gaffe over interest rates
#4 Labor challenges Coalition over industrial relations
Overall, notwithstanding Howard’s gaffe on ACA, it looks like the Libs won the day – not a real surprise, considering they spent $34m on tax cuts – but the ACA gaffe will not be that helpful in aspirational voter land (ACA’s target audience).
If this is what it’s going to be like for the rest of the campaign, it’s going to be bloody long… 40 days (and 2.5 hours) to go…
Howard was on the verge of losing it with Kerry O’Brien, and it’s only day one of the campaign. If that’s anything approaching a sign of things to come, he’s going to implode at some point. I, for one, can’t wait.
#179 Never mind the “captains of industry” mark, they will be blown away with what Rudd in an alliance with the States offers them on infrastructure investment, overhaul of “red tape” and R&D tax incentives to improve national productivity. This is something the coalition CAN NOT match because they don’t have the co-operative “federalism”.
Now that Howard has stuffed up on interest rates, he can expect quizzes on all sorts of things (price of bread, cost of petrol etc) whenever he’s interviewed, because it’s an easy cheap shot for the TV hosts.
And these things work…remember Hewson’s birthday cake confusion? That pretty well did him in. And I vaguely recall that Keating struggled to remember the price of milk.
I think Rudd might do better at these quizzes, because a) he’s got a pretty sharp memory, b) he’s a SNAG, and has probably done his share of grocery shopping (he certainly irons his own shirts, according to one of the papers today), and c) because he’s only been leader a little while, he hasn’t lived somewhere where all meals, shopping, housing costs are provided by the taxpayer.
I reckon both leaders will be sitting down late tonight with their minders, reciting the prices of household commodities.
And I reckon the punters will be saying to each other tomorrow..hey, bloody Howard doesn’t even know the level of interest rates, and he reckons we’ve never had it so good on housing costs!
I know it’s shallow, and doesn’t prove anything about the ability to run a country, but it’s the way these campaigns go.
Swing Lowe,
Agree 100%. It’s going to be a long campaign and I don’t think the Joe Average is going to care about Howard’s gaffe. It’s only us obsessives who get a kick out of it.
I guess this is the only way the Nats can get into the news today…
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Nats-accuse-Labor-of-intimidation/2007/10/15/1192300684646.html
Watch is ESJ – everyone will thing you’re Keith Windshuttle!
I’d say Swannie and KR would be desperately working the calculators trying to work out a tax policy and hoping against hope there isnt a hole in it.
Sky news’s headline is “Some economists say Howard’s tax cuts could raise interest rates”. Wouldn’t Costello hate this to be tomorrow’s head line or appearing anywhere on the same page.
Lol, possum. Much too right wing for me.
Historian……?
Sure man, & I’m a Gynecologist !!! LOL
So who saw 4 Corners article on the Exclusive Brethren Sect? Corrupting the political process. Backed by the one and only John Howard. The best way to discourage them from working in polling booths. Go up and talk to them. They are not allowed to talk to us mortals. If that doesn’t work tell them your gay. This is sure to drive them away, along with any other fundamentalist organisation helping out the Liberal Party. I’m sure if you stand next to an Exclusive Brethren (the females wear scarves on their heads) and talk about your gayness etc, they won’t stay around for long.
Well AG01 and Paul K, you did ask? I am sorry its not more exciting.
ESJ,
I’m pretty sure that Labor had a draft tax policy coming into this campaign – they’ve been pretty prepared for everything else that has come up this year, so it would be safe to assume that they’ve prepared for this.
I think they’ll just be double-checking their figures atm and seeing if they can make any alterations. I doubt that they’re going to let themselves get into a bidding war with the Coalition over tax, as they know that they’re more vulnerable on economic management than the Coalition.
As I said before (on the other thread), expect a similar amount to be spent in a different structure – tax rebates (eg, 125% tax rebate for businesses who set up a biotech company in Oz), movements in brackets and perhaps either an elimination of a particular bracket (i would nominate the 40% bracket) or a slight cut in the corporate tax rate (maybe to 29% – it’s more symbolic than anything else).
Inflation number comes out this week.
If it is outside the Reserve Banks parameters, all the talk from now till Novemebr 7, is about whether interest rates will rise.
In a situation where the Libs have to make up ground, how will they fend off all the inevitable questions.
Howard and Costello have fed in to a process that will do them over.
Another own goal!
paul k. you can call me Harry or Monica. Most people on this site know who I am. Just had a different take on their relative performances. Nothing about sin from me, believe, me, just a dialogue about what’s going on. Thought Howard defensive, particulary after the gaffe with the light weight ACA lass, and that Rudd didn’t fluff his lines and got in a nifty Howard/Costello wedge, done with a nice smile. Sorry about the delay in reply, the Exclusive Brethren coverage on Four Corners had to be watched. And what did you think of that, then?
Rowan, ABC Online is running a similar headline as well, plus it was covered on PM – audio available on the news page I’ve linked to.
I’m off for an evening walk!
Sure Swing Lowe – I agree that is probably what they are aiming for. But I do not think they expected JWH to announce on day 1.
I think the perception is not a good one for KR. All talk and no substance as came across tonight. They will be working OT to get it out real soon and to get it right.
It is never a wise move to announce huge unfair, inflationary tax cuts on the day that oil spikes up to wold record levels because of the Iraq situation.
“The price of New York oil smashed through 85 US dollars per barrel for the first ever time here on Monday.
New York’s main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, hit a record high 85.19 US dollars as traders feared more unrest in oil producer Iraq could further stretch tight global energy supplies.” – Brisbane Times.
It makes team rodent look like irresponsible high risk learners on L plates.
02 Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs I just posted on it. But because it was moderated it appears on the previous page.
ESJ,
Labor can now accelerate the launch as they now have access to the updated Budget figures – they were expecting these to come out 10 days into the election.
I think it would be good for Labor to get the tax policy out by the end of the week (ideally by Thursday), but it’s far more important to get it right (without any budgetary black holes) than to get it out soon. To be perfectly honest, I think by this time tomorrow, we’ll all be talking about another issue completely.
However, do you think that JWH has fired this bullet too soon – it’s surely going to be a “forgotten” promise in 5 weeks time – and it could have been used to get the Coalition over the line in a close election? Of course, I’m sure they’ve got other big policies saved up as well…
That program was awesome
:) ….. I learned so much I did not know. Thanks very much to the ABC for putting the facts of this story out to the public.
You are right, the planning of this program timewise in regards to the election campaign couldn’t have been better
.
Duh, in real terms it makes no difference whether the Govt or the people spend the money, it’s still pumping cash in to an already overheated economy and creating underlying inflationary pressure.
Costello is a dill.
Does anyone know if the Govt find out the Inflation rate before they go public? I would think they do but that’s speculation.
Actually, I was wondering what would happen if Rudd came out and said he’d halve the fuel excise? How would that play out both politically and economically?
ESJ @ 138,
The colour of your soxuality is of no import. But, you are a collective and you are not necesarily a man.
Courier Mail online site already has this.
Exclusive Brethren `funded Liberal Party ads’ – report
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22591149-952,00.html
I can’t believe the number of people who think announcing tax cuts will be bad for the Coalition. You’re deluding yourself if you think that most people won’t be delighted to hear they’ll be ‘getting more money’. I don’t think it’s an election deciding issue, it’ll all be over within a few days unless Labor drags it out.
Labor aren’t going to turn down the tax cuts. They’ll just restructure them a bit.
More action, less talk from Labor needed all around. Less slogans, catch phrases or anything like that that’s likely to get on people’s nerves. There’s no quicker way to lose someone’s vote than to annoy them. And if Labor lose voters at this stage they’ll find it hard to regain them.
The Australian are running Howard’s slip up on interest rates.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22589987-11949,00.html
They should get an interviewer out there to ask him what it cost him the last time *he* filled up his own car with petrol – or what the cost of the last loaf of bread was that he purchased at Woolworths – etc. etc.
Those sorts of questions would turn up how really out of touch he is. The gaffe tonight on ACA is only the tip of the iceberg for “how out of touch is he”.
Rowan, a look at the Reserve Bank Website is handy.
http://www.rba.gov.au/
Edward,
How disappointing. I was so hoping you were a Grand Wizard of the KKK or the Youth Leader of a Neo Nazi group. Guess it’s the romantic in me.
212
Swing Lowe Says:
October 15th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
Actually, I was wondering what would happen if Rudd came out and said he’d halve the fuel excise? How would that play out both politically and economically?
It’d work OK in the bush.. but might alienate Greens etc… encouraging more CO2 emmissions, etc.
Swing Lowe
I think JWH will go with something on housing in the last fortnight of the campaign.
I think today may also spook KR they will be fearful of going first (like Latham with the tasmanian forests) and that should also work for JWH. I lead Labor follows ..
I’d imagine both parties will detail a willingness to move into ethanol and biofuels at some stage. Very popular move for country votes. In fact I’m sure there are plenty that are disgruntled that more hasn’t been done already.
Whilst John Howard and the rest of the coalition may affirm that workchoices wont become worse if the coalition is reelected, this is a commitment that should not be taken seriously. In each of his eleciton victories, Howard has interpreted the election result as a mandate of his policies. In 1998 despite losing the popular vote, he interpreted the result as a mandate for hs GST. In 2001, it was a mandate for his handling of terrorism. Whilst Howard and Costello will try and bury any real mention of Workchoices during the election campaign, dot expect the same if the coalition is reelected. A hypothetical reelection will only see howard viewing the result as a mandate for workplace reform and whilst he might not say it immediately, it will be the basis of furthur changes in the second or third year of the next term. A reelection will make this a definate possibility, any furthur increase in Howards majority will make it a certainty. If anyone is intending to vote coalition but disagrees with workchoices, remember that a vote for howard will inevitably be seen as an endorsement of workchoices.
Nice expose of the Bretheren on 4 Corners.
Whew, what a bunch of ratbags: Envelopes of cash, dodgy electoral ads and in like Flynn with the Libs.
Bet Howard now wishes he’d never heard of ‘em.
ESJ,
I don’t see how today would make Rudd afraid of going first into a policy area – in fact, the fact that JWH has been able to set the agenda today would make it seem more likely that Rudd will try to seize the initiative by taking the lead in another policy area.
Greensborough G, agree the economists will do them over. One of the most stupid things they’ve done since the last stupid thing, which is basically daily, if not more than once daily. I’ll probably be accused of the “h” word, but this has supposed great leap into teh narrowing has all the hallmarks of the great banana skin entrance.
Can we recruit Kerry O’brien? He destroyed howard single handedly. I think he hates him too.
I love the last coment “priminister, I look forward to many more of the conversations in the coming weeks”.
JWH ” Oh I’m sure you are”.
Grilled and flipped like a burger!
KR, cool calm and collected, but Kerry was clearly playing favorites.
Harry,
Agree, but dare to use the correct terminology. It is “Horsedroppings”.
Going first or second wont matter much. He will go first on the issues we know about starting with education or health policy I would think. give’s him something easy to talk about during the debate. He will have to do something with tax though, he will need to give a confident answer in the debate.
I still want to know where Howard goes from here. each announcement has to top the tax announcement for him to have continued traction.
Howard stumbles with interest rate gaffe
http://au.news.yahoo.com/071015/2/14oi1.html
Harry and GG,
To be perfectly honest, I think the Coalition would be very happy to “sacrifice” an interest rate rise on Nov 7th for the early momentum in the campaign generated by massive tax cuts.
Any movement (or lack thereof) of interest rates in November would have been either neutral or a net negative for the Coalition regardless. By pushing the tax cuts out so early in the campaign, they may be able to get the early momentum and raise morale and expectations of a Coalition victory. If they had not done this, then 1 more bad week of polling would have meant the predicted “narrowing” would not have occurred and Labor would have been considered a shoo-in. At least, the tax cuts give the Coalition a chance of getting some sort of narrowing…
222, yes bob katter says he will support any government to form a minor government as long as the pass a bill for compulsory use of 10% ethanol Australia wide
Yay! It’s spreading, which means it will be in lots of papers.
Overall, I would score a slight points victory today for the Libs, only because they were the ones who pitched the big policy. However, is was deadened a little with the interest rates mistake on ACA, and the fact that he was drawn to talk about WorkChoices (ALP turf, will remind the voters of it, maybe cynicism toward government) as well as every headline that says interest rates could go up.
However, since the Libs are coming from so far behind, the will need a lot more resounding day wins, not like the slight one today, to get anywhere close.
BTW, I scored yesterday as a draw.
This was what the RBA had to say about interest rates in August.
http://www.rba.gov.au/MediaReleases/2007/mr_07_11.html
The RBA will not raise rates before December period. They did not intervene in 2004 they will not now.
Delude yourself about today but JWH clearly will go down fighting.
Swing Lowe,
I understand what the rationale is for the Libs going early which you articulate very well.
However, will it have the desired effect?
Rudd can now hold off his tax policy till after the next Reserve Bank meeting on the grounds that he really needs to know where the economy is going before committing.
On the other hand promises of tax cuts at some time in the future will be forgotten by this time on Thusrsday.
Howard has always been a two trick pony Tax cuts and IR reforem. What is he going to talk about for six weeks now he has fired his best shot?
Swing Lowe,
“Any movement (or lack thereof) of interest rates in November would have been either neutral or a net negative for the Coalition regardless”
I have to disagree with you on the interest rate thing. That’s why I wanted to know about early knowlege on the Inflation rate. An interest rate rise will be historic so will get news and you will have headlines saying “tax cut swallowed by interest rate rise”. The best environment for introducing a tax rate rise would be with no movement on interest rates? If the rise is coming, it might be better to have released the tax cut after for a sence of relief to the struggling mortgate holders.
Edward… history, eh? I have rels in the history business… what patch have you staked out as your own, if that’s not too much of a giveaway?
On petrol initiatives mentioned above, this is another area that does my head in. On the one hand, we have politicians’ deep concern about Global Warming and emission target chat and so forth, on the other hand we have politicians’ angst over petrol prices and what a burden they are.
If we’re going to tackle AGW we’re going to have to put a realistic price on carbon. Petrol prices have to go up, not down. Mixing ethanol in might help in the short term, but not for long. Not if the community’s serious about the atmosphere.
And yet we have this double-speak, endlessly.
How do you know? Stevens has told several comittees that rates will go up if the board thinks they should. Why would he say that if he didn’t think a rate increase was at least possible?
Who said Howard wouldn’t go down fighting?
ShowsOn, Because the RBA was petrified of appearing to intervene in politics in 2004 (when it was all about interest rates and they felt the ads were very misleading) why would they not wait a month to raise rates. If they raise rates in November – they will wear the blame for ever more for JWH losing. Not something cautious bureacratic types will want.
Peter Martin says strap yourselves in for a wild ride.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/strap-yourselves-in-and-expect-still.html
Yes, 223 Historic Election.
Kevin should ramp and keep it up on the unspoken promises Howard and co. will have made for themselves. Track record on mandate presumption is exactly the case.
I took it as read that Howard thought Work Choices would run past we keepers, based on his reading of how it worked for the GST.
Except, as I have said before, Work Choices is a clear and ever present danger, not something it is too late to do anything about.
The mere fact that Howard denies emphatically that there is no plan for the next go is enough to create grave suspicion. Specially as the company refers to it..Minchin, Costello. May as well have added never, ever.
Rowan,
My assertion is that the Coalition released this policy purely to get the early momentum in the campaign. If there is an interest rate rise on Nov 7th (and ESJ, the difference between now and 2004 was that in 2004, Macfarlane was governor whilst Stevens is governor now), the Coalition will lose votes – but if it had let things drift (or not released this policy until after Nov 7th), it would have likely been so far behind in the polls that any bounce it could have gotten from the release would have been effectively meaningless, even if interest rates don’t go up in November.
Has Howard prematurely fired his bullets? It looks like desperate politics to me. Will he get his Exclusive Brethren mates to do some more dodgy newspaper ads spruiking the benefits of the tax cuts? LOL
ESJ – you are wrong. We have a new RBA governor who has clearly indicated that he will move if and when necessary. If the inflation data next week indicates a rate rise is necessary the markets will be expecting it to happen (they are already pricing in a 50% chance). If the RBA fails to act under these circumstances it would be seen as a clearly political move in support of JWH.
The RBA didn’t want to intervene in politics in 2004, and they don’t want to in 2007. But to fail to act when necessary because of the political situation is itself an intervention into politics. The only way to be completely impartial is to ignore what is happening in politics, and this is what Stevens has indicated he will do.
Hey ESJ,
Glen Stevens will be thinking “I’ve got a lovely bunch of coconuts” running this government right now.
Howard and Costello have paid their money and made their choice.
A fearless and independant bureaucocy is what is required right here, right now!
#242 Steve, yes Peter Martin has it absolutely right, Costello is an economic fraud;
There is no way Rudd should have tried to answer that question – that is a dangerous question the govt and commentators would love to hear and have ripped apart – and that would be the headline. Remember that theme is Howard’s major theme – so it is best to have all the tax policy looked at and their own tax policy updated to include the new growth figures. AND put the low employment narrative in context with growth and IR.
The Govt too a big risk in shooting their biggest gun up front. They can’t reload this one. In a few weeks or more the noise would have covered it. They are hoping for a quick jolt to the electorate to shake a few off Labor’s tree. It will be a dim memory soon – something about some nice tax cuts – but in the future.
Labor will not and should not release their tax policy until 2 or 3 weeks before the election – it is the big gun, the one you want people to have in their minds – the later you can leave it the better. So they will leave it as late as possible – unless the press really give them a tough time over it – OR they start losing momentum and need the silver bullet. But they shouldn’t fire it now without good reason.
They will have a very thourough tax plan for sure – they just need to adjust it for the new growth.
Howard should have released this tax cut on Friday lunch time – to hit the radios, tv and Saturday papers.
Greeny at 237
“What is he going to talk about for six weeks now he has fired his best shot?”
Blackfellas and reffos.
I also smell and infrastructure plan.Not quite as bad as smelling a dam coming on as one does when the Qld elections are on, but I’m sure I smell something expensive and probably white and big and has a trunk.
ESJ at 241,
I CPI comes out on the high side, the RBA would be in the bind where to not raise rates would be seen to be playing politics (i.e. favouring the political interests of the coalition in the face of overwhelming evidence to raise rates), and raising rates would be seen to be playing politics.
So what to do? – what Stevens was always going to do; ignore politics and raise rates if it’s necessary. If you are going to be seen to be playing politics regardless of what you do, you may as well look after the national interests and fulfill your charter in the process.
As long as he goes down I’m happy to let him have his choice regarding method.
If the coalition win, but they wait until December to increase rates, then people will think they didn’t increase rates during the campaign to help the coalition win.
If Labor win, and they increase rates in December (but not November) then that could be construed as a political intervention of opposing a new Labor government.
So either way they are still making a political intervention of sorts that could be seen as favouring one side or the other.
If they try to avoid this by waiting until next year to raise rates, even though it was required in November or December, then they would face claims of being incompetent for failing to do what they should’ve done in November.
If the inflation figure next Wednesday shows an increase of say 0.8%, and they raise rates on November 7, then people will just see that as the RBA doing what it’s paid for.
Possum,
High on the agenda will be a Possum sterilisation program. All those ladies in the outer suburbs having their roses eaten by your friends.
Could be a big vote puller
As much as it loathes me to do so I have to agree with Edward on interest rates. It would be extraordinary for the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates in November. What is the over-riding issue which would force them to go in November instead of waiting until December? Interest rates are falling all over the world. Waiting until December would be the smart thing to do rather than forever politicising the Reserve Bank’s image. We’re only talking about a 4 week wait.
Some of you guys really seem to want an interest rate rise. Isn’t a 12 point lead in the polls enough?
The RBA may also want to wait until they get a better idea of what is happening with the US markets before rising rates. I predict no change in November, but if inflation figures are bad they will rise in December.
I’m fine with Labor winning a minority government even. Just as long as they win. Don’t stuff it up Kevin. Now’s the time to leave Howard in your dust… please!
Kina, I actually think Labor has an excellent retort to Howard’s promise to lower unemployment, and should use it as much as they can. The answer relates to the skills shortage.
Rudd could have said that a Labor Government would keep lowering unemployment by training Australians to fill the job vacancies. We don’t have enough plumpers, engineers, teachers, nurses, doctors, accountants…you name it, we don’t have enough. Labor can say: The mining booms has created the jobs – Howard has created the job vacancies!
Unemployment is not a problem for Australia (or for most of the western world, actually). The problem is skills shortages. It’s forcing up wages, reducing productivity, damaging health and education. The small percentage of Australians still unemployed are in that situation because they’re ill-equipped to fill the vacancies. Howard’s solution is to hire from overseas(cf Dr Haneef). I don’t have a problem with skilled migrants (or refugees, for that matter), but with an economy as strong as ours, no Australian-born person who wants a job should have to be on the dole, because the government won’t fund his/her education and/or re-training.
That’s why I was disappointed that Rudd just bagged Howard on jobs, without using the opportunity to link it to education and training.
I’m in favour of an interest rate rise if it means Howard gets beaten
Wow, a lot of ALP supporters here tonight on E!! You know you are supposed to wear your rose coloured glasses on LSD, not E?
I saw every news and current affairs program tonight, with the exception of Today Tonight (If I hear one more Telstra story I will do a duodenal reach!). Whilst Howard did appear crotchety and was miffed by Grimshaw’s pop quiz (she is a first rate reporter and should do more), Rudd needs to watch himself:
1. His non-verbals are getting annoying now. Even to diehards blogging here with their Kevin07 T-shirts. The fingers, the thumb over the shoulder, could be dangerously seen as contrived by Joe Punter.
2. His sets his own traps and falls into them. Asked by Kochie this morning whether his campaign would contain elements of negative. More rhetoric about his plan and straight into negatives about Howard. Kochie missed an opportunity not to dredge the “22 percent history ad” up, aired on Channel 9 three weeks ago right after Gillard on Sunday is warning of the current “mother of all negative Liberal campaigns”. This just appears ingenuous.
3. The glass-jaw accusation is gaining traction. Each time there is a gaffe, he publicly admits to “disciplining” or “counselling” nameless “staff”. False Dawn, McClelland and now tonight’s hospitals admission (7:30 report “there have been cases of State mismanagement”) are three clear cases. Apparently, the public sees that the buck stops where the gaffe can be safely disposed of (nameless “staffers” or unnamed Labor governments. Beazley was not known for this as much.
The problem with Rudd’s “dusk to dawn” airtime is that people could get REALLY sick of him quickly and feel like they’ve seen “all the tricks”.
Unable to respect Australian democratic ‘values’ and not interested in assimilating with mainstream culture.
Does this mean Kevin Andrews will attempt to deport the Brethren?
CG,
Talk, talk, talk.
When will it show up in the polls?
So when do we expect the first election period poll to be out? I assume someone like YouGov will want to make a name for themselves by getting the first one in? Or will it be Morgan this Friday?
How much has Howard spent in commitments and promises so far tis election? To my reckoning, it’s up towards the $50 billion mark with the tax announcement. I guess he’s not running on a low spending agenda. Hopefully (candle in the wind time) people will realise that the extra $40 or so in the pay packet won’t save your grandmother from receiving treatment in a hospital store room, won’t reduce the debt kids leave universities with, won’t cure otitus media in one Aboriginal kid and, importantly, won’t make any real difference to their lives.
Greeny, god forbid.
I shall be manning the barricades (and holding my walnuts).
Dasho,
I think Kevin Andrews would argue that providing financial support to the Liberal Part is the very best type of assimilation and is worth points on the Citizenship test.
Doesn’t matter whether interest rates rise in November or not. People may still have an expectation that they’re still trending upwards. And $15 in the hand in 2009 won’t compensate for it.
I agree with Possum that an infrastructure fund is gathering momentum behind the scenes. There’ll certainly be money for ports, and any roads and rail needed to get the iron ore and coal offshore faster. The east coast highway system will get more money (should have happened years ago, though), as will the Melbourne-Brisbane inland rail land, that delivers pork to a string of Nat electorates.
But don’t hold your breath waiting for more coalition money on health and education. The coalition will just keep bagging the states. It doesn’t seem to recognise health and education (or broadband) as infrastructure, because they don’t run on diesel.
Antonio @ 257:
I also think the issue of under-employment is a real issue. You only have to work one hour in the last fortnight to be employed. If we used the same interpretations of data re unemployment as is used in Germany, the rate would be closer to 9% than it is to 4% here. The Howard gaffe just made lateline (he he). Both the Australian and Geman counts, by the way, meet ILO standards. Maybe its not much of a standard.
The furphy that the public seems to buy: – “But if we don’t keep the budget $700 katrillion dollars in surplus, are we no longer putting downward pressure on interest rates?” will Labor attempt to lay claim that these tax cuts could be inflationary?
It’s a ridiculous misnomer that the public has bought that somehow fiscal balance is the number one determinant to inflation (has inflation got nothing to do with wage increases in comparison with productivity, supply constraints (cue skills shortage) and a whole host of international factors.) Unfortunately as Oscar Wilde aptly noted “The pure and simple truth is rarely pure and never simple,” and a lot of people always go for the simplistic explanation, and furphies like this are allowed to proliferate.
Inflation.
According to the RBA’s charter, it must keep inflation between 2 – 3%. This maximises growth, and minimises the chance of unemployment.
In the last quarter – March to June – inflation was 1.2%. Multiply that by 4 = 4.8% for the year from March this year to March next year, if the quarterly rate remains unchanged.
The RBA wants to see a sign that inflation is substantially lower than the 1.2% last quarter. Howard and Costello are hoping it is under 0.6%
The closer it is to 1% the greater the chance of an interest rate rise on November 7th.
The mining boom has created the jobs. Howard has created the job vacancies.
Under-employment is indeed an issue. The same reason – people who want more work don’t have the skills to do the work that’s available. And there are plenty of people who’d happily do less work, if there was someone waiting to take it from them.
“That’s why I was disappointed that Rudd just bagged Howard on jobs, without using the opportunity to link it to education and training.”
That will no doubt be the narrative they are working no doubt along with their existing and planned policies.
I do agree that Rudd needs to avoid over-exposure [and needs some new manerisms]. Gillard, Smith and the Finance shadow all present a good presence and change. Rudd should use them more. But then again maybe he is – I don’t ’see’ much of the tv or radio.
The RBA runs on a 6-24 month horizon.If its time to pull the trigger, you damn well pull the trigger whether its up or down. Quite frankly, and this is the economist coming out in me, politics can get stuffed.16 years of growth hasnt been delivered by nanny state governments pulling their delusional levers of any persuasion, it’s been delivered by a well functioning, forward looking inflation targeting regime exercised without fear or favour by an independent RBA chairman.
There’s a reason the RBA goes when it needs to, because inflation is inertial.If they wait one month they politicise their function, so they have to wait 3 months to be seen not to politicise it, but a 3 month wait can be the difference of an inflation rate of 3.2 and an inflation rate of 4.
A rate of 4 will need higher cash rates to bring down than 3 – so why should mortgage holders (or any debt users) be burdened twice simply because the RBA didnt want to play politics (but ended up doing so anyway)?
Are you expecting a knock out blow? I think it is going to be a slow grind of a campaign
The government CLAIMED you need a massive surplus to keep downward pressure on interest rates, until….
TODAY! Magically now you only need the surplus to be 1% of GDP. All the rest you can hand out as “non-interest rate presuring tax cutsTM”.
Howard is a stubborn old bugger, he won’t go quietly(and Janette doesn’t want to give up her plum mansion on Sydney Harbour) – this will be a long, hard slow grind for Labor to blast him out.
The high dollar will help the government contain inflation in the current quarter, because of cheap imports. It takes the edge off the record oil prices, and make stuff in the $2 shops even cheaper. In the long run, though, it hurts our manufacturers, our farmers and tourism in a big way. But that impact won’t really start to be felt till after the election….
Agree with 275: It’s shaping up as stalingrad.
Maybe the Howards have been so long at Kirribilli, they might claim land rights?
An observation from a simple person.
JWH looks agitated, impatient and testy. In fact his final reactions to Grimshaw & O’Brien were contemptuous and angry.
Rudd looks relaxed, confident and almost smarmy. I thought he was about to lash out into a jig.
What does that tell you? Forget the public polls and consider the private party polling.
Finally why has the tax shot been fired from the election locker on the first day, even before the writ has been issued?
I’d like to see $34 billion over 3 years spent on securing Australia’s water supply rather than a paltry $10 billion over 10 years.
Pathetic!
Antonio – import competing domestic industries is where it’s really starting to bite.
Who can say “Gregory effect”?
Goodnes gracious me! You are all in fine form tonight. Had to see a man about a dog after watching Four Corners. Made the flesh creep.
ESJ: If you are an historian, I trust that you pay due regard to facts. History is not written by BMW drivers, real history is written by people. And so to bed.
Yeah, he couldn’t get away from the ACA set fast enough! His minders need to tell him “at the end of interviews, smile, and count to 5 before getting up to go”.
The fact it was so early will make some people think “yeah, yeah, sure, sure… must be election time!”
Gaynor, did you enjoy your Sunday roast? I’m still eating the left-overs from my Saturday night roast.
I agree that the tax policy was released now because it’s the coalition’s main policy, and they need something to get voters changing their minds ASAP.
And I reckon we’ll hear plenty about water from both parties. A real plan to secure water for both regional Australia and capital cities could win the election on its own.
This is why the tax cuts were announced today.
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/23/32/
All that matters about the current Tax Cut event is how it gets presented to its audience and how they view it.
It is designed to create a jolt, a big headline a significant event to shake lose some tentative Labor supporters. It is not only the money but the image of a ’successful’ PM being a good PM.
Its impact has to come today’s TV and tomorrow morning’s TV before the news cycle moves on – and to a lesser exten the papers.
It should work I imagine to some extent – if it doesn’t well – they are well and truly ****ed. AND if does work will it stick?
Possum, you are right. The car and car parts industries and food processing are good examples. And tourism gets the double whammy…fewer tourists coming here cos it’s getting too expensive, and more Australians holidyaing overseas instead of at home.
What’s the odds of Morgan conducting a poll over the next couple of days to test the response to the Howard/Costello announcement?
We will up to our armpits in polls from now on.
Interesting conversation Philip is having with Chalmers Johnson, author of ‘Nemesis The Last Days of the American Republic’, about the overreach militarily of the USA and his analysis of how this may result in the total loss off democracy in the USA.
‘Hubris and Nemesis
Managers tend to make their biggest mistakes in things they’ve previously done best. In business, as elsewhere, hubris is the unforgivable sin of acting cocky when things are going well. As the Greeks tiresomely told us, Hubris is followed inexorably and inevitably by Nemesis’.
Robert Townsend
Up the Organization
Hhahahahah they replayed Howard’s interest rate gaffe on Lateline.
No wonder he only wants one debate, he is hopeless without a brief.
Well if it’s going to be Stalingrad, Melbourne Ports will be safe, because we have an expert:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ios_Teper
Surely Newspoll, Nielsen and Galaxy will be weekly from here on in?
Derek,
This may shock you – I am a believer in the great man school of history.
For those who missed it, 4 Corners full item on the EB and extended interviews with participants can be found here.
http://abc.net.au/4corners/content/2007/20071015_brethren/interviews.htm
Also. Is it possible that Howard will retire hurt sometime soon and chuck the show to Costello? Another major humble, under the full glare of the cameras. Retains some dignity, gives the libs a slim chance. This is good advice. It is also in-depthing probing, as opposed to shallow in-depthings probinsg bloody keyboard has gone wonky.
I don;t think its a gaffe to be off .25%
I dont like it when interviewers pull that pop quiz stuff. It demeans us all.
ESJ says ” I am a believer in the great man school of history”
ESJ, that’s a bit shallow isn’t it?
can you name me ten of these great men?
It was a brilliant report. It sickens me that Liberal party hacks from Howard down accuse the ABC of bias, yet the ABC frequently puts together journalism of this quality.
When’s the last time a commercial network filed a story anywhere near approaching this quality?
9 did some great work on the tsunami’s. But that was a long time ago.
True Nath, but it plays well to people that like shows about dodgy mechanics and fad diets.
Unfortunately that audience controls about 20 seats
Derek,
The ultimate hospital handpass.
Howard retires to hand over to Costello….. before the election!
It certainly demeaned the Messiah.
“how this may result in the total loss of democracy in the USA.” More stupid left-wing tosh. There’s nothing wrong with the US that a good eight-year Democrat presidency can’t fix. The Chomsky-Pilger-Fisk-etc intellectual left appear to have been driven literally insane by their hatred of Bush.
I said it all along. The Liberal party has a huge warchest and they will attempt to buy the Australian people and 34 Billion is a pretty big splash of cash for the first day. Of course the richest sector of taxpayers get the most benefit as is Liberal party policy always. It depends on wether the greed gene still lives healthy and strong in the Aussie genome.
Peter Hendy as usual is doing his masters bidding and denying that the tax cuts will risk a rise in inflation. I hope its true. One more interest rate rise and my trainee techo has to choose between owning a home and feeding his family. Quite frankly so do I.
I got the impression from Tracy Grimshaw that Rudds interview was recorded before the rodents and played back after the rodent got it wrong. Can anyone clarify this. The rodent seems like a very grumpy old man for someone who is doing what he enjoys most. as he said yesterday. Not a good look on day one but I think people should calm down. The election is far from won by Labor yet. There’s 6 weeks to go yet and anything can happen.
“There’s nothing wrong with the US that a good eight-year Democrat presidency can’t fix.”
That should be Hilary’s slogan.
Adam,
I think they arrived there a long time ago.
I agree with Nath. If they picked up every little inaccuracy like this there would be no room left in the papers.
They did it with Rudd over trivia and tried to make it into a critical mistake – a real set up. The ignored the Govt ministers who made the same or worse mistakes.
Let the trivia go.
Costello in JWH’s biography:
“I have to foot the bill and that worries me… and then I start thinking about not just footing the bill today but if we keep building on all these things, footing the bill in five, and ten, and fifteen years and you know I do worry about the sustainability of all these things.”
Suddenly he’s not so worried, and what the heck, it’s only the punter’s money he’s chucking at them to buy their votes with.
So Howard just buys the electorate but Pete’s now part of a team that has a dream…yeah, right!
Interestingly, Hendy said that the Australian economy can “always” withstand tax cuts – so I guess he won’t be concerned about a Labor government after all.
The yanks will never descend into fascism – (apart form the fact that there’s too many libertarians with a lot of guns in Montana) they have the type of institutional checks and balances that allow the place to bog itself down in mediocre leadership for a decade or more, teeter on the brink of dubious constitutional authoritarianism at the margins, before a new administration takes the broom to the appointments and cleans the place out, letting them get their act back together.
chrispydog, i don’t think Costello was referring to tax cuts, but rather pork.
Anyone here know anything about this?
The sitting member in one of the country’s most marginal seats says he had almost 100 election posters stolen on the first night of the campaign.
Liberal MP Kym Richardson holds the southern Adelaide electorate of Kingston by 0.1 per cent.
He began putting posters up yesterday afternoon with the help of volunteers.
Mr Richardson says overnight about 100 went missing along a 12-kilometre stretch of Main South Road, as well as on Beach Road in Christies Beach.
I reckon Latham’s handshake was the hammer that drove the nails into his political coffin. Small things can drive the uncommitted and wavering voter into the belly of the beast. To court trivia is therefore like playing with fire.
Who would you vote for? My guess is Clinton.
Obama is too left wing to win the general election. If Edwards loses New Hampshire he will run out of money.
Obama may make a good V.P. candidate for Clinton.
Or even better, Al Gore. But I can’t imagine he would want to get into politics again without a chance of winning the main prize.
“Beazley was not known for this(fudging) as much.”
Aye, Cap’n Gerry, but Teh Bomber, aimiable enough chap that he is, was a three time loser in the battles that counted.
Tin-Tin plays politics like Devil Fish plays poker.
Glen’s WORST nightmare! Labor government, with the Greens in opposition! LOL!
They have the best system. They aren’t limited to the legislature as the place to make up the executive.
They can actually get business people, academics, and other specialists in the appropriate field to take on the executive jobs.
At the risk of sounding sexist, I would like to hear the opinion of one of the women on the blog re Howard’s and Rudd’s performance on the 7.30 report because women sometimes see subtleties men don’t.
I am still trying to work out how they elected the dolt Bush.
I’m still trying to figure out how lame the democrat’s campaign was to lose to Bush twice.
Possum and others,
Regarding the tax cut promise, it seems to me to be vulnerable to attack on several grounds. First the obvious risk of causing inflation. Second the fact that they are just promises from Mr Non-Core Promise. Third – the timing and lack of scrutiny.
Consider timing and scrutiny. We all know that the government has been sitting on a huge surplus for months, thanks to the mining boom. Costello regularly boasts about it. Now they come out on day one of the election campaign with obviously pre-planned tax cuts, based on not previuously released finance updates. But if tax cuts were the plan since budget time, why couldn’t they have been flagged in the budget? Then they would have been scrutinised by Treasury and Parliament. Estimates committees could have asked questions. Once upon a time perhaps even the Senate might have debated them. But this way there is no scrutiny except to the extent of the material Costello releases. And no chance to quiz Treasury before election day.
That leads to a fourth point – probity. Who prepared the tax cut figures, public servants or private economists for the Liberals? Who paid for the work? Taxpayers? Who gets to check the figures? Where does the caretaker convention start or finish? Was this work done by treasury before the election was called, but now cannot be scrutinised by Parliament? All this from the PM who made such a big deal about his charter of budget honesty etc. Pure hypocrisy. Its amazing how low he will sink when he is desperate, and this is desperate.
Meanwhile, we can’t afford to sign Kyoto or fund hospitals, yet there is money for $34 billion in tax cuts without pushing up inflation?
nath @ 310
And what do you call tax cuts on a grand scale, but another cut of pork?
Suddenly Howard is pretending he’s concerned for working women! Oh, purlease, give me a break! Where were working women on the Cosby/Textor pictogram? Not visible to the naked eye on Howard’s side, that’s for sure.
If the argument that government should spend revenue for the commonwealth, not for buying votes, then this is all just a cynical bit of pork in my opinion.
EC
Yes, that is true but I am also wary of the cocktail of too much media exposure, hasty responses to accusations on air and this tendency to “pass the ball”.
Oh, and whilst he may well win, he hasn’t yet and I wouldn’t be making my staff and shadow cabinet take every second fall lest I come so perilously close, perhaps a seat or two, and miss.
“What was that you said about my ‘death penalty comment’ in October Kevin” intones Mr McClelland, day one after “the devastation” (of course, a fictional piece)…
I watched the 7.30 report and venture the following remarks.
Kerry O’Brien knows how to get Howard to spark up. The Grump of Kirribilli was combative: jabbing away, point by point, being assertive, leaning forward in his seat, hunched in a bit, dry-mouthed, trying to get in front. Sometimes he can do this stuff with relish. But tonight he seemed ill-at-ease. He must be wondering how it will all play: whether he will make headway with the voters he’s already lost. His voice was hard – coarse – and his eyes were darting around. The spoken message was meant to be voter-friendly, but the visuals were antagonistic, difficult. A most ill-tempered polly.
By contrast, Rudd was cool, smiling, not saying much – while pointing to reams of bothersome detail for those who need that sort of thing – and letting everyone know he’s not going to be blurting out his responses or giving away his game.
Rudd a clear winner, tax cuts or no tax cuts.
Kina, the first time (in 2000) they didn’t elect him. Remember the dodgy Florida vote tally and declaration? Bush stole it first time (with the assistance of his brother, Jeb) and the Dems were too gutless to push the issue.
Gore came down with a bad case of the Costellos, but has somewhat made-up for it since.
#241
Edward StJohn Says:
“Because the RBA was petrified of appearing to intervene in politics in 2004 (when it was all about interest rates and they felt the ads were very misleading) why would they not wait a month to raise rates. If they raise rates in November – they will wear the blame for ever more for JWH losing. Not something cautious bureacratic types will want.”
Not sure where you get this lot from EStJ? Wishfull thinking perhaps?? RBA is already on record that they will have no alternative but to adjust rates as and when the economic conditions warrant it. Hawstralea Expects and all that!! And JWH wont find out till early November if they will or will not.
Thats a serious thing during the campaign the inflation data that will drive that decision will be out a week or so before. So, depending on how that goes, its likely to be a hot topic for speculation in the press for a week or more during the middle of the campaign. Bad for Rattus if this is the case. I think there is some seriously bad planning going on in Rattus Central at the moment.
Ok, Edward, flush it out. Explain to this poor, hungry stone mason the “great man” thingymebobs. Ta
Is it only me, or is Hamid Kazai’s voice really relaxing?
Nath #310 [ chrispydog, i don’t think Costello was referring to tax cuts, but rather pork. ]
I agree with chrispydog @ 320 – Costello’s concern in the comment he gave for JWH’s biography was fiscal sustainability, which would seem to be just as applicable to reduced revenue as it is to increased expenditure.
This story is running itself for the moment – as many have pointed out, there are flaws in the plan, so it seems to me that Labor can sit back and let the media criticise it for a while. Then, they might try to put some pressure on Costello – except, of course, we’ll probably have a dozen other policy announcements by then and nobody will remember the tax plan.
Exactly. Why else did Glen Stevens flag a possible interest rate rise during November if he didn’t actually think it was a possiblity?
To me Stevens was saying to Howard “go to the election BEFORE we meet!”
I don’t think he was being very subtle about it either.
Evan
I think you are being unfair to Gore. In 2000 he contested the Florida count in Court but 4 judges appointed by republicans voted to stop the furthe counting of votes. How do you win a democratic election by getting the vote count stopped? One of the most shamefull decisions in legal history.
The Rodent’s big ’shot’ in this campaign is not the never never tax cuts outlined today. It will be race. It is ever so with Howard – the creature is so, so predictable. The groundwork has already been laid, the traps set out, the burley shovelled into the water… In the last five to seven days of the campaign, expect a Crosby Textor crafted hot button ‘them dusky people against us Aussies’ issue to arise. All the usual suspects – Akerman, Milne, Bolt, Albrechtsen, Maris, Shanahanahahahahanan, Houghton and company to be pre-briefed and ready for the charge.
Something’s already afoot – my wife (Chinese Australian) was spat on today in a shopping centre in Kenmore. That hasn’t happened since Howard came out in support of Hanson in 1996.
My first choice would have been Gore, although he did run a poor campaign against Bush in 2000. (Even so he would have won had it not been for the selfishness of the Greens.) But he ain’t running, so my next choice is Clinton. Obama and Edwards are lightweights. On current indications she’ll win it in a stroll, since the Repubs are nowhere near finding a candidate their base will vote for but who isn’t barking mad. But a lot can happen in 13 months.
Yeh, Socrates, maybe I was a bit hard on him, but jeez, the Republicans stole the bloody election and the Dems, by and large, just rolled-over. The theft of the 2000 Presidential is a mill-stone the US Republicans are going to have to live with for some time to come (I hope).
Can somebody who knows about tax check my figures? From the smh table posted earlier, I’ve estimated that somebody earning 45,000, will have their tax reduced by about 1000 dollars annually.
Somebody earning 90,000 will have their tax reduced by just under 2000. Somebody earning 135,000 will have their tax reduced by just over 3000. Someone earning 180,000 will have their tax reduced by 6000, and tax will be reduced by 3% on all income above that so someone earning 225,000 will have their tax reduced by about 8300, someone earning 270,000 will have their tax reduced by 10500.
Earn twice as much and you get a tax cut twice as big, three times as much and its three times as big, but earn four times as much and you get a tax cut six times as big, earn six times as much and you get a tax cut ten times as big, earn ten times as much and it’s almost twenty times as big. And an opportunity cost of 34 billion in infrastructure and public services, not to mention the inflationary pressure.
So they really are pretty much economically reckless buckets of waste geared mainly toward the upper-crust. But there are probably a good number of middle-income yobbos who will be sucked in by the headlines without paying any attention to the actual numbers.
Howard on the 7.30 Report looked close to losing his temper or of being pissed off AND on ACA at the end he also showed he was pissed.
This is poor discipline by Howard so early on – let his emotions show through like that. Another emotional flaw was when he asked Downer check out his support then changed his mind. The off his own bat, on the spurr of the moment he decided to go reconciliation without checking with his team.
He appears getting to be emotionally fragile. A little extra prodding may see him lose it.
Socrates, there is no doubt whatsoever that a lot of the work, particularly the technical work on the Coalition tax cut program would have been done by the public service – that’s the benefit of incumbency.
Its funny you should mention the “why didnt they do it in the budget”. That’s exactly what my oldies said to be this afternoon.
I’m suss about the estimates of the increase in the labour supply as a result of these tax cuts (the so called participation rate incentive) – Treasury hasnt been right on those estimates for 6 years or more. These things dont follow the orthodox models that are designed for use with an economy running way below capacity and way below the levels of labour utilisation that we see today.
Garbage in, garbage out.
But even with if we take the 60 000 new extra workers that this plan envisages being added at face value – that’s less than the level of unexplained volatility in the participation rate for any 6 month period.
It’s 32 billion of nonsense on that front.
I actually feel sorry for the Treasury guys that have to do these numbers and deliver them to the government , knowing full well they aren’t worth a hill of beans.
Chrispydog said:
“Oh, purlease, give me a break! Where were working women on the Cosby/Textor pictogram? Not visible to the naked eye on Howard’s side, that’s for sure.”
That’s a classic line!
JWH looks agitated, impatient and testy. In fact his final reactions to Grimshaw & O’Brien were contemptuous and angry.
Gaynor 279
How true. He was livid. How dare he be seriously questioned and put on the spot.
I don’t think its a gaffe to be off .25%
nath 296
It is if you have been previously scoring points off the other side for similarly trivial gaffes (ie Rudd’s on the tax scales). If Howard doesn’t want to be hit with this sort of stuff, then he shouldn’t pull it on other people. He has no right to complain about it.
The yanks will never descend into fascism – (apart from the fact that there’s too many libertarians with a lot of guns in Montana)
Possum 309
Wouldn’t be too sure about that. At least one of the founding fathers (can’t remember which one offhand) only reluctantly signed the constitution, saying that the political system it contained would inevitably lead to populist authoritarian rule in the long run.
And those Montanian militiamen gunslingers are faux libertarians. They would line up behind a right wing, nationalist Christian fascist in a heart beat.
One does hear that the public service is very pissed off at the blatantly political way their services are being employed, although the process started long before this government. This may be reflected in a big swing in the Canberra seats, and of course also in Queanbeyan which is a Canberra suburb but in Eden-Monaro. Gary Humphries might well be worried. Labor and the Greens got 56.7% of the Senate vote in the ACT in 2004, so a 9% swing would put him out.
“A little extra prodding may see him lose it…”
Kina, I reckon the Prime Minister’s been well and truly prodded already. The polls speak for themselves.
Darn.
Howard was cool. My other friends say hes cool too. Onne of my frends sed he was too
cool
for mysilf thtat was coool!!!!
Possum
Thanks but I guess that is the point. Unless some heroic growth asumptions are correct, these cuts are either inflationary or will push the budget back towards deficit (not unlike Bush’s cuts have done in the US). Indefensible. Every economist in town has been saying that the limits to growth now that we are close to full employment are supply constraints – mainly infrastructure capacity bottlenecks and lack of skilled labour. Mining executives have been quite explicit on this. This package won’t fix either, and eliminates the means to do so later.
Why doesn’t senior economics advisor Bill Evans from Westpac bank play any jazz piano anymore?
JM, Yeah,
But you could beat them by employing a band to play the “Stars and Stripes” and then have a bunch of Canadian snipers pick them off one at a time when they stood up to salute.
Why doesn’t senior economics advisor Bill Evans from Westpac bank play any jazz piano anymore?
Coz he’s dead. (1980)
Time for the Public Service to start leaking to ensure the slave traders get the boot.
1st. Manildra
2nd. Cash for visas
3rd. Children overboard
4th. Iraq
5th. WorkChoices
6th. AWB
7th. Habib
Rudd did not make the connection between the Howard/Costello tax pledge and interest rates. Not even ironically. The pledge should have no impact for the November meeting of the Reserve, as it is a multi-year program, due to commence in the never-never.
I thought the Coalition would try to buy off the electorate and if that failed, frighten off the electorate, in that order. I did not expect it to be so soon.
Although if the announcement gives the Coalition poll momentum, serendipitous random acts of violence to play the security card may not be necessary after all.
Just Me,
So a request for “The Rythm of Life” is out of the question?
Night All, I’ll publish my great man list tomorrow night Nath. Sweet dreams Derek.
“Although if the announcement gives the Coalition poll momentum..”
You reckon that’s a chance? I don’t.
The budget tax cuts sank like a stone with barely a ripple to nudge the polls.
This latest announcement will do likewise. Give it a day or two and it will be about as relevant as the the Northern Territory aboriginal intervention and the $10 Billion water plan.
GG.
Maybe you could ask for something from the ‘Immortal Concert’ albums?
“Although if the announcement gives the Coalition poll momentum..â€
If it doesn’t give them anything then what are they going to do for 6 weeks? I would have thought the Tax Cut was the king of the policies. If it fails the rest is neither here nor there since Labor ‘own’ most of the other issues. If this Tax Cut fails then they will have to settle for narrowing the size of their defeat.
Here’s a theory which Howard might be banking on:
The Libs campaign theme for the ordinary punter is ‘the economy is everything’. The economy is experienced most commonly by paying tax, so thinking about the allure of a tax cut ought to stop those socialist health ideas Rudd is on about getting attention with the undecided.
Howard may think that this will give him a bounce by grabbing attention with ‘his issue’. He may also think that if interest rates do go up, he can run the ‘it’s really risky to let ‘L’abor run the economy now and this outbreak of caution sends them back to him.
Of course it could all be a spectacular failure, particularly if Rudd has his own heavy tax artillery to come.
“There’s nothing wrong with the US that a good eight-year Democrat presidency can’t fix.â€
Adam, hat tip for getting Nov.24 right.
A straight question. Was your use of the word “Democrat” inadvertent or intentional? For some years now, GOPper boosters have been deliberately using “Democrat” instead of the “owner-preferred” and gramatically correct “Democratic” as a perjorative, because of its sinister, rodentine suggestiveness.
I don’t think that the tax announcement is anything but Howard spending money like a drunken sailor (hmm now, which treasurer said that about him?). Moreover, I don’t think it will actually be ever implemented. However, it is the only issue on the table announced during the campaign so far and for better or worse it has set the tone. It certainly wasn’t challenged.
You are right, Evan @ 349, we’ll know soon enough what the electorate’s response is.
Rudd can sit back with his tax policy now and take careful aim, in his own time.
I have to continue to disagree with chrispydog and ptobias.
The only reason there would be reduced revenue is because there is still alot of pork as well as the tax cuts. Can you really say that Costello is not committed to lowering the top tax rate?
Costello was criticising the pork, not tax cuts, but whatever.
#322 – you must have been watching a different 7.30 Report. Howard was pretty much as he always is. Rudd is yet to look like a leader. He gets thrown softball questions by his political allies at the ABC and he still can’t come across as anything other than a policy wonk.
#298 – Four Corners’ story on the space cadets at the Exclusive Brethren – which they probably thought was a good hit piece on the government – sank like a stone. People know that the Coalition is not controlled by any specific group such as the EB in the same was as Labor is controlled by the unions. Even corporate Australia is apolitical and has been since the Hawke/Keating days.
Gotta admit, I am very surprised Howard released his tax policy this early on. Doesn’t make sense. (Mind you, neither does a lot of what he has done lately.)
Is Howard singing “Yesterme, Yesteryou, Yesterday” on there somewhere?
I’ve always used Democrat as a noun and an adjective, but I do now recall being told that the US Democrats prefer to use “Democratic” as the adjective, as in “the Democratic candidate.” I can see why the Repubs don’t like this, since it implies that they are “the unDemocratic candidate.”
The Repubs are heading for a massive smash next year, with up to six losses in the Senate as well as losing the White House. I’m looking forward to Three Amigos II, starring Hillary, Gordon and Kevin, solving the world’s problems.
I refuse to take american politics seriously until they get an independant electoral commission.
Whatever Howard is singing, it is a turgid tuneless blues of his own composition.
ShowsOn on RBA 253:
‘If the inflation figure next Wednesday shows an increase of say 0.8%, and they raise rates on November 7, then people will just see that as the RBA doing what it’s paid for’.
Yeah, ShowsOn. Glenn Stevens will have heard Howard when doing his strong chin out, for the good of the nation ‘that’s what I get paid for’ bit.
But hey, let’s remind him!
Interview: John Howard February 11, 2007 Reporter : Laurie Oakes
JOHN HOWARD: ‘Well exactly, of course. I mean, so in the end people will pay on results. Australians are very practical people. They say “What’s this bloke done, what’s happened on his watch”, they look at the lowest unemployment in 32 years, they see a strong economy, they see somebody who’s prepared to weather the storm of unpopularity in relation to something he believes is right, and they will make those judgments and I’m in their hands, and whatever judgment the Australian people make at the end of the year, I’ll accept with the greatest of good grace but I want them to know that I am very dedicated to the job, I’m very enthusiastic, and I have a lot of fight left in me’.
nath,
It’s OK, the Iraqis don’t take them seriously either. Especially, the bombs.
Yeah, yeah, blame the ABC… blah, blah, blah…
Um, no, it was a report demonstrating that the exclusive brethren most likely broke federal electoral law.
Did you even watch the show? Where was it claimed that the coalition was controlled by the exclusive brethren?
The report demonstrated that the exclusive brethren participate in an organised fashion in political campaigns in Australian, N.Z. and the U.S. When the E.B. claim that only individual members, on a private basis, campaign they are lying. This argument was completely dismantled by the 4 Corners report.
The ALP is a LABOR party, it is the political wing of the trade union movement. It isn’t controlled by unions, it is influenced by unions.
At least Howard was close with the rate figure, Rudd fluffed the tax scales completely, he had no clue at all, not even in the ballpark, and was clearly just making shit up when he answered.
Good point, we are streets ahead of them there. The AEC does a brilliant job. They should also organise the debates.
358
Just Me Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 12:14 am
Gotta admit, I am very surprised Howard released his tax policy this early on. Doesn’t make sense. (Mind you, neither does a lot of what he has done lately.)
Just he has to get on the front foot somehow. Older voters like myself will remember the Fraser campaign based on handing back [what was it, $8.36c a week] to the electorate in a corny cartoon election advertising campaign. Guess what.
It worked, straight to the hip pocket nerve of those with no interest in the nuances of policy debate. Give me money and u get my vote- it worked for Fraser and it will work for JWH- to a point.
Moreover, he is trying to wedge Rudd into overspending or trumping him on tax reform {higher bid}- smart opening swing from JWH if you ask me. It puts Rudd into the ‘think music’ corner -umm, well, errr, lets see what happens, at least temporarily.
He will toss money around like it is confetti in areas that the RBA will consider ‘neutral’ as the Cheif economist of Westpac said tonight on Lateline Business report.
An interest rate rise, according to Westpac’s cheif economist, will not be shaped or influenced by this kind of election promise which is rolled out in the future somewhere, at least not in November 2007. Smart, very smart Johnny> what else does he have but $$$$ to toss around ? Nothing !!
What fun.
Adam, I hoped Gore would run too, but now he’s an extreme longshot despite recently firming from $9 to $6 in the betting. His heart’s elsewhere.
The 3 Amigos II chances look pretty good. HRC is at $2, she is beltway approved up the wazoo, has a monster war-chest, has been given the nod by Citizen Rupert and hubby has promised to stay on the porch. Not sure if HRC has Skull&Bones endorsement but she poached ace triangulator Peter Daou from salon.com a couple of years back and he’s helped her negotiate the minefields so far.
YAY! The Oz goes after the bloggers again! That’ll learn’em!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22591230-16382,00.html
“All this suggests to us that despite the glib prognostications of leftist bloggers and Fairfax journalists, this election is anything but done and dusted.”
The US doesn’t have an national electoral authority because it doesn’t have national elections. All US elections are run at state level, either by the department of the Secretary of State of the state – that is, by state public servants – or by independent election commissioners. The FEC is concerned only with policing the campaign financing laws. The quality of election administration varies greatly from state to state. In some it’s excellent, in others, as we saw in Florida in 2000, abysmal.
Question for the Australian Citizenship test in say 2020:
Who was the Australian Governor-General who prorogued the last Howard parliament?
Get it right or you are not fit to be here.
LOL
A question for the betting experts.
http://www.sportingbetdecider.com/
Sportingbets has “published” some figures showing,
for 29 crucial seats, the percentages of money
backing the respective candidates.
(you have to click on the news headline
mentioning 29 seats)
Naively, I would’ve thought that this would exactly
determine the odds that the company is quoting.
For example, since Stirling is quoted as odds of
1.85 for ALP and 1.85 for Libs, you would think that
roughly even money has been bet on the two
candidates. But no.
The table shows that only 30% of the monetary value
of the bets on Stirling has been
bet on the ALP. 70% for Libs.
It does not seem sensible for sportingbet to
keep the odds at 1.85 each in this situation.
1) it suggests that punters are more confident in betting
on a Lib win at those odds. So the quoted odds are out
of line with punter sentiment.
2) it suggests that sportingbet will lose money if the Libs win
because they have not taken enough ALP bets to
pay for the winnings.
So why doesn’t sportingbet change the odds?
And, how what conclusions can we make about
odds representing expert knowledge on the
chances of candidates if they are out of line?
Any suggestions?
Did you see the last moments, the sign off, for the 7.30 interview with the PM? I always wait for Lib/Nat ministers to finish their interviews on the ABC, to see how they let go, to see if they can resist getting in the last word, or at least the last tone. Dolly is always worth waiting for, but tonight was something else.
KERRY O’BRIEN: Mr Howard, we’re out of time, I look forward to the next of these.
JOHN HOWARD: I’m sure.
Now, that “I’m sure” was spat out. Spat. And the head was turned, as if PM was getting half out of his seat before the tape stopped rolling. Noone in Australian national life has done more interviews to camera than John Howard, and he knows the stagecraft. Better than anyone. The ill discipline of this maneauvre was telling.
If I was running a book on the election I would be wanting individual seat polling. Does anyone have a handle on what it costs to poll say 500 people according to generally agreed polling principles? Are they doing this?
Why advertise the blog world? Couldn’t pay for better advertising.
“17 seats” again. They said it twice. How can they expect to be taken seriously when they repeat this nonsense?
More party polling from QLD seems to back up the Galaxy findings:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22592476-5014046,00.html
“Labor strategists last night told The Australian that the party is leading in the ultra-marginal seat of Bonner, held by first-term Liberal MP Ross Vasta on a 0.5 per cent margin, and in Moreton, where the margin is 2.8 per cent and which has been held by former multicultural affairs minister Gary Hardgrave since 1996.
Liberal insiders said internal polling in recent weeks confirmed that the party was behind in Bonner, but that there was “still hope” of Mr Hardgrave holding the line against Labor in Moreton.
A senior Labor source in the Sydney-based campaign headquarters last night said Mr Hardgrave’s fellow “class of 96″ MPs, Indigenous Affairs Minister Mal Brough and parliamentary secretary Teresa Gambaro, were also on track to retain their seats of Longman and Petrie.
Labor has virtually “written-off” winning Longman, on Brisbane’s northern outskirts, as well as the neighbouring seat of Dickson, held by Assistant Treasurer Peter Dutton, who sits on an 8.8 per cent margin, after taking the seat from Cheryl Kernot in the 2001 election. “
#357
Jack Lacton Says:
” Even corporate Australia is apolitical and has been since the Hawke/Keating days.”
Is it coincidence that EStJ goes to bed and then this gem appears???
So, if Corporate Australia is so apolitical, whats the story with the SerfChoices support adds they were running?? Showing closed up shop-fronts with “Unions put out me out of business” painted on them, in the lead up to an election is a political i suppose??
Please!
They know political pendulums, biggest they OWN political pendulums!
Good god that GG editorial is madness. I’m just gobsmacked – there’s countless numbers of extraordinarily foolish statements in it.
For instance “ALP will struggle to pick up more than 2 seats in Qld”. Even if you assume that the Galaxy poll was correct (I don’t trust it) it showed that the ALP won’t win 2 _of_ _the_ _4_ polled. The other 25 or so seats were not polled. Including Blair, which is more marginal than some of the seats actually polled.
And 17 seats. Idiots.
And people that throw around facile 1993 comparisons might want to be careful about calling other people “glib”.
Shanananan et. al must be getting cranky again.
MG in the age reports that:
The five-year plan is in two parts. The $34 billion cuts are a solid promise, to be delivered over three years. Further “goals” for the following two years include reducing the top marginal tax rate to 40 per cent.
… no word on whether they’re a core or non-core solid promise.
I notice Mr Dennis Shanahan has written a provocatively titled article regarding political momentum deriving from economic competence, but in it he fails to mention Mr John Howard’s inability (also demonstrated yesterday) to recall the current interest rate (something surely more relevant to the average Australian than the top marginal tax point) in that context…
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/labor_caught_out_again_on_money
If Labor is writing off Petrie, Longman and Dickson, then that gives lie to the promise of spectacular gains in Kevin Rudd’s home state.
Perhaps the importance of Queensland has been massively overstated.
On the other hand, maybe we should maintain our usual suspiscion about insider whispers and leaked party polling.
monday – tax
The coalition have to run to catch up and a big headline policy might help. It probably can’t hurt: they have little to lose by trying to take the initiative and put the focus on “how the government can help”. This is an obvious attempt to create a government-friendly issue, one that can be linked to the economy and public finance more generally.
On the other hand, Labor has plenty of time to put out a tax policy and you’d have to say they now have the opportunity to aim their policy where it can do them the most good, to out-flank the coalition. Rudd has also signalled that – regardless of who might benefit from Labor’s tax policies – they will be “conservative”, “cautious” and developed with patience. This is Rudd-cool: don’t overplay your hand, make a virtue of prudence, don’t make spectacular claims, attend to the detail.
The coalition policy will register most with its heartland: the biggest cuts seem to be reserved for the highest and upper-middle ranges. This cannot be accidental. While the lowest paid get a rate cut, it will be relatively easy for Labor to offer an even better deal.
This is a fascinating iteration of one of the themes of this political cycle: the interplay between the contenders. There is Howard the quintessential operator; the perrenial, insistent advocate; haggling and jabbing and provoking; a serial provocateur. And Rudd the cool; the smiling autocrat; patient, firm, visually subtle, controlled; the simplifier….Such contrasting styles….There is over-statement and under-statement; impatience and reserve…
I sense that the Australian people are getting tired of being ambushed by the Coalition.
Ambushed by water policy,
Ambushed by the Budget,
Ambushed by the NT intervention,
Ambushed by the history policy,
Ambushed by Howard’s aboriginal mea culpa,
Ambushed by the latest tax fantasy.
It’s no way to run a country. This tax cut business will be a three day wonder… if that.
Aussies want a bit of stability, not continual surprise attacks by their own government.
Regarding whether or not the RBA will move, an anonymous interest rates analyst submitted this article – http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/43/28/
Definitely worth a read if you haven’t seen it already.
Mmm, the leftist bloggers and Fairfax writers are disgustingly biased when they faithfully interpret the results of this year’s opinion polls. Whereas Chris Mitchell is throughly objective when he glibly dismisses Labor’s chances in Bennelong and lies about the number of seats the ALP needs to pick up.
Bennelong I think would have to be at least 50/50.
I wouldn’t listen to them. They have been criticising Rudd for most of the year and praising the Govt.
The GG has trashed its own reputation this year for the most part making itself a GG. Most bloggers here are no more impartial than they.
I do hope however that now the election campaign is on that the will treat each party absolutey the same. IF they dont? I guess a delegation of 500 bloggers knocking on Chris Mitchell’s office door with the Channel 9 camera crew would be most interesting.
By the way – as far as I am aware [and I meet some of the community weekly] – Much of the Chinese population in Darwin refuse to buy it because of its hard right-wing bias. I can tell you Chinese hate the press trying to manipulate them or presenting a govt bias [not hard to guess why - just think of mainland China's control of everything].
Greame, The Caretaker Conventions are clear. They begin when the House is dissolved (noon Wednesday).
317 & 318,
There are many reasons why the Democrats lost to Bush twice but they are different each election. In 2000, it came down to challenges in the Supreme Court over recounts in parts of the US (Florida and Ohio). The Supreme Court that voted in Bush’s favor was dominated by conservative judges appointed by Bush Sr and Reagan. Clinton hadn’t enough opportunities to appoint centrist or left leaning judges. In 2004, it was merely the power of the incumbency and the rose coloured glasses of the Republican voters, be they rusted on or swingers. If the folks who had voted for Bush in 2004 had it to do over again today (between Bush and Kerry based on what they know NOW), I dare say that he would be tossed out.
The people who voted Republican in 2004 and who will NOT vote Republican this time are experiencing much of the same “omg how could I have voted for him?” self recriminations that many of our Howard voters in 96/98/01/04 are feeling now. Doesn’t matter who the Republicans nominate this year, they could put up the ghost of Ronald Reagan, he wouldn’t win because Bush has so alienated his core base of support. [Sound familiar?
]
Bluebottle 367
Thanks for that. The danger for Howard is that he can be painted as economically irresponsible, especially if a lot of senior business economists come out and say that is not the best way to go.
And as to The Australian’s latest foolish outburst, they have clearly forfeited any claim to be politically neutral, and the long-term damage they are doing to their reputation is increasingly serious. On the bright side, this latest outburst proves that they are taking notice of what the blogworld is saying, and it is cutting them deep. If only they could be a little less reactionary in their response.
Julie says:
“The people who voted Republican in 2004 and who will NOT vote Republican this time are experiencing much of the same “omg how could I have voted for him?†self recriminations that many of our Howard voters in 96/98/01/04 are feeling now.”
I just don’t believe this. Nothing has changed since ‘04 that would warrant such a huge electoral change. I haven’t heard anyone say ‘how could I have voted for him’, but having said that I don’t know anyone that has voted for him since the ‘96 election. They must exist somewhere…
I think Howard’s grumpy demeanour on ACA and 7.30 Report is hugely instructive. As others have noted, he is the past master on TV interviews so for him to act this way on what ought to be a red letter day for the Coalition in unveiling a major policy surprise (as in the timing) tells us a lot.
I see it this way: Howard delayed and delayed in calling the election in the hope the dynamic would change. It didn’t. He was forced to call the election. In desperation, the Coalition pulled the tax cut stunt and then, on mass audience commercial TV he fluffed the benchmark interest rate – and his political instincts would have screamed in his brain instantaneously that this is political poison for the tens of thousands in marginal electorates having trouble paying the mortgage. After all, the entire 2004 campaign was interest rates, interest rates, interest rates. And he knows there is a good chance they are about to go up again.
Howard is a political animal. Now that the last hope of delaying the election campaign until something shifted is gone, with the polls still telling the same brutal story, Howard knows in his political brain beyond any shadow of a doubt – barring the dramatically unforeseen – that he is completely, utterly, irretrievably gone.
That is what Howard’s demeanour on those two shows was about. It is over.
Lose the election please, you’re one of us, but remain pessimistic. I assume that’s based on the huge disappointments of 01 and 04. My best friend is in the same category, refusing to get hopeful until he can see the actual result.
It’s a lot different this time. Labor’s primary throughout its period in opposition, even the 98 election where it ran close on seats and 2pp, has never reached and sustained the heights it has this year. 47-49 will require a catastrophe to lose from here.
Workchoices, as you and some other Labor supporters have pointed out, may not be the critical deciding factor. But it (and Rudd’s elevation) was the critical turning point. Howard and the Government lost credibility through it. and nothing, even renunciation of it can win it back. The problem from there is that everything he says and has said in the past is viewed with enormous scepticism. Malcolm McKerras got it right.
Almost concurrently Labor has suddenly become more disciplined and focused. The hereditary peers and factional warlords that Edward’s always on about are still around, but they’re definitely on the wane and there’s more talent from more diverse backgrounds coming in.
I reckon it’s bankable.
As a woman, Darn, my take on the performances were:
ACA:
PM – obviously ill at ease (the shoulder flicked a few times), and his attempts to appear relaxed and casual looked very forced. At the end, after the interest rates gaffe, he looked very angry.
Rudd – polite, relaxed, controlled and gave a nice smile at the end
7.30 Report:
PM – looked really fired up, like he was spoiling for a fight and was clearly pissed off at the end of the interview, giving a petulant and rude response to O’Brien’s sign-off.
Rudd – polite, relaxed, controlled and gave a nice smile at the end
Rudd is doing very nicely. He is staying on message and is looking like someone we would be proud to have represent us in the eyes of the world. By contrast, Howard is looking more and more like an angry (and out of touch) old man who needs to be put out to pasture.
The rates markets were talking about the tax cuts – but more becuase they mostly sit in the those top tax brackets….
The RBA annoncement on Nov 7 is still up in the air…. But there’s a really strong case it will be a no brainer after the CPI on October 24.
Rudd should wait until after the 24 October for his Tax policy. He’ll have much better information about the RBA then. If CPI is in the “bracket of indecision”, somthing about 0.7 or 0.8 then he might need to wait until Nov 7.
Re whether or not the details are released early to politicians – officially the answer is no. But I have (through observation) seen that they tend to be a little clued up on the morning of the release. But there’s no chance the Government would know the CPI yes. The ABS probably doesn’t even know the CPI yet – they’ll still be figuring it out!
Labor has two options I think.
Option A is if Labor wanted to stake its chances on the intelligence and foresight of the electorate (a risky move) they could ask them to forego the tax cuts in exchange for 34 billion worth of improved health and education services and public infrastructure.
Alternative they could take the cautious Option B in the knowledge that an extra 40-odd bucks a week instead of improved services and infrastructure (not to mention IR laws) will impress enough people to swing the election.
Under Option B they could match the bracket changes in the lower 3 brackets and keep the rates as they are – just as the government is proposing. Keep the limit between the two brackets above that at 150,000 (or at least not raise it by so much), and keep the rates in the upper 2 brackets as they are now instead of reducing them (I would go one step further and introduce another bracket around 220,000 and slap it with a higher rate, but I’m sure they wouldn’t want to do that).
For most people the tax cut would be the same – for those earning between 80,000 and 150,000 it would be a slighly smaller cut. The big difference would be for those earning more than 150,000 but they probably wouldn’t vote Labor anyway.
There will be less money available for public projects still more than under Howard’s plan and at least the money won’t be going into new Volvos for Madison’s eighteenth birthday.
*96
And the most unfortunate part of it all is that the libs have complete control of the disgraceful media and that beatiful wedge will not see the light of day and gain momentum unless people read blogs like these.
As a part time working mother, I seem be a key target audience for Howard and Costello’s proposed tax cuts.
Given this governments appalling record of Family Allowance discrimination against working mothers, it is a joke that they can now try to win my vote. Better that there be a overhaul of the Family Allowance system to provide a fairer system.
Of my fortnightly income, I bring home slightly over half when I take into account the tax, cost of childcare and the loss of Family Allowance.
Single income families, where the mother does not work at all, can earn more than double the combined income of my partner and I and still get maximum part B family allowance.
I work because we need the extra income to survive and pay the mortgage on the very modest home we live in. I hate having to leave my child, my job is unrewarding, the travel time is tedious… I have all this to go through and then I lose the Family Allowance …
My advice to Labor is don’t offer tax cuts. Use the money to fix Family Allowance, Education, Health etc etc…. Provide the safety net that should be provided by government.
Tax cuts will be matched by price rises and interest rate increases. Inevitably the tax cuts offer greater benefit to the higher earners and the divide between rich and poor increases.
@ 358 Just Me,
I’m a bit behind the conversation I know but what the Liberals have done is get Treasury to write their tax policy. This means they need to release it as Government policy while they are still officially the Government. That is why the tax policy has been announced so early.
Clever move on their behalf, cuts down the risk of any gaffes if Peter Costello was forced to write his own tax policy.
Talkback radio callers say no to tax cuts
Prime Minister John Howard and treasurer Peter Costello will be surprised to learn that callers to talkback radio this morning were overwhelmingly critical of the federal government’s $34 billion tax cuts package that they announced yesterday.
Media Monitors analysis showed calls on what The Age presented as a “bold initiative” that left Opposition leader Kevin Rudd “flat-footed” (The Australian) ran almost four to one against the government.
Of the 55 talkback calls this morning on the topic, 42 were negative, six were balanced and seven were positive.
On ABC radio North Coast, caller Peter said the promised tax cuts meant more consumption of material goods that would lead to further global warming.
On commercial radio stations, the proportion of callers criticising the tax cuts was lower than on ABC radio but still ran strongly against the government.
On 2UE in Sydney, caller Ron asked how the tax cuts would help old age pensioners while on John Laws’ 2GB program caller Margaret said the tax cuts would have been better spent on improving hospital services.
GST increases…..If Rudd and his cronies get in, and if they stuff up economically like previous Labour Governments it will be an easy fix for them to increase the GST for top up funds. A labour win now will be the first time that all states and the feds are of one political persuasion thus enabling a unanimous vote to increase GST – a requirement under the GST legislation.
Why haven’t any commentators, journos started asking about this scenario??
Because Paul, it’s a crock of sh..
Scare campaigns on the GST forget to mention who it was that introduced it to begin with. Before it was introduced there was a 0% GST. Now there’s a 10% GST. Yet we’re meant to get scared about the ALP increasing it and not angry with the Coalition for introducing it?
Paul Says: @ 404
{Why haven’t any commentators, journos started asking about this scenario??}
They already have Paul and Rudd said that it would be over his dead body.
You should spend less time flitting across various web sites posting this sort of nonsense and a little time reading.
But, I know you won’t. Trolls only know how to post from Liberal talking sheets.
They don’t have the time or ability to infirm themselves by following what is happening out in the real world.
Happy if Rudd and labor said they would maintain status quo on tax until after they get in and can inspect the books before deciding on any changes to tax.
Last time Howard lost office as Fraser’s treasurer he kept secret the largest deficit in Australia’s history. The Howard government has been the most secretive, especially in the withholding and distortion of information that should be publically available.
Before any company takes over another they are allowed an detailed inspection of the books to ensure that what they are buying is as portrayed.
This should aplly in politics, allow labor unlimited access to the books so that there is no nasty surpreises like before when they take government.
The problem with Quiggin’s assessment is that the Coalition has a proven record on tax reform and economic management.
After five consecutive rounds of tax cuts, there’s no reason to believe that the Coalition can’t deliver additional cuts next year through 2012.