• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.
• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.
• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.
648 Comments
A Labor gain of just one seat in Queensland seems exceedingly unlikely to me, although there’s plenty of campaigning left to go.
Still have no reason to update my prediction of Coalition 5-7 seat majority. Another 39 days? Why won’t this nightmare just end?
I think it is best to consider marginal voters rather than marginal seats. And a whole bunch of things can move individual voters in and out of this category. That is why we get contradictory swings seat by seat in recent elections. Although in this election, we should see less of that due to very stable polling over most of this calendar year. I wonder if Qld and WA have been the least stable of the states in TPP over the months? If this is the case I think it would be unwise to put too much faith in uniform swings in these states. Given that Galaxy sometimes like to push the boundaries in sample size, their polling gives something think about by if I were a party strategist, I wouldn’t waste too much sleep over it.
On another note, is it not interesting how shrill the MSM headlines are becoming. ‘Labor in trouble’ for the Galaxy poll gave me a chuckle but nothing compared to this morning’s headlines on tax cuts. Its almost as if they are struggling to get noticed. It may be that old style party politics is not the only thing facing a changing of the guard at this election.
LTEP,
Being pessimistic about Labor’s chances could well put you in a win-win situation.
If you’ve put money on the Coalition winning the election, and your predictions turn out right, you’ll be raking in the money (with the political betting odds for the Coalition as they’ve been for the last couple of months).
If you’re wrong you can celebrate Howard’s ousting from power.
Either way you can’t lose!
well the tax cuts went down like a lead balloon in Makin.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22591810-5006301,00.html
Judy (#5) that ’s the most sensible thing I have ever read in the tiser.
Regarding the article on Queensland, it confirms that the Coalition are defending their outer Brisbane marginals well, which is not that surprising. I think these type of outer suburban seats are the new Liberal heartland and they seem to have solid local MPs. I would have liked to have heard about other (and more attainable for the ALP IMHO) seats in Queensland – Flynn? Herbert? Leichhardt and Ryan got a brief (and pointless) mention.
judy (5), I think this is how most of the electorate will respond. I suspect a good majority of them are tired of being bought, duped, misled, and so on. I suspect they’re looking for a grand plan to fix certain things, and they don’t see this as delivering in that way. This is not a “plan for the future”, it’s just handouts.
I’m confident the next round of polls will bear that out. The government didn’t get any bounce from the last round of tax cuts, so why should this one be any different?
i refuse to believe that such a wide gap in 2pp will not transfer into a win for ALP. it may well be that the libs hang on to some marginals only 2 see safer seats fall behind them. a return to power for Howard by anthing less than 49:51 will be a huge fraud on the voters imo
The lead election story on The Age website is “PM flunks rates test”, http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/pm-flunks-rates-test/2007/10/15/1192300685487.html
I’m with Mackerras, a narrow win for labor, 92 seats and would definetly say Benelong and Wentworth now both gone.
Still holding out hope for a true lanslide that will see the reiligous nut case jobs in the libs removed from parliament, so 117 seats would be good.
Costello gaffed last night as well with the Income Tax Threshold,he said $11,000,it is really $6,000.I hope they pillory him as well for not being over his brief.
As to Queensland polling,my little spies in the right quarters tell me that the ALP are on track.
That’s narrow? You must have some high expectations…
I’m a bit annoyed about this pub trivia “you must rote learn the little facts” nonsense, but since even citizenship has gotten in on the act, I can’t say I’m too surprised.
Apart from being “bold”, Mackerras’ effort yesterday in The Australian was utterly self-involved. Sorry Malcolm, we really couldn’t care less what people ask you and what you tell them when they recognise you in the shopping centre. Mad-Macks spent half his commentary on “his” increasingly irrelevant pendulum pointing out occasions where he was right and others were wrong. The reality is that this bloke is wrong about 60% of the time. Why does The Australian even bother with him? Mad-Macks, its time for you to step side for Mr Bowe!
To my ealrier point about marginal voters in Qld – I think Fadden and McPherson are both worth a closer look. Mortgage stress should be biting in Fadden in particular and there is a latent anti-politician vote there which Labor are playing to. And if K-RUD continues to sing the ‘I love Queensland’ song from the Beattie songbook loud enough, that should also help. Add to that the fact the the previous siting member is retiring and has been invisble for the last few years – it looks very interesting. There are also four conservative parties running in this seat trying to attract votes from the ‘working families’ that K-RUD is talking to. These families incidentally have been in mass migration to the elecotrate from interstate since 2004. The Nationals are recycling Alex Douglas who won the state seat in a by-election but then went down in a screaming heap at the state election a few months later. He ran under ‘coalition’ blue, shunning National Party association in what is definitely an urban seat. It will be interesting if this causes confusion.
A biggish swing to Labor nationwide could put Fadden over the line for them.
Possum Comitatus has put McPherson on the watch list, mainly due to mortgage stress, but a quick perusal of the latest 2006 census data tells me that this is more likley in play in Fadden.
I think the time to stop believing “internal polling” started with the calling of the election (if not well before that).
Every “leak” of internal polling is aimed at either giving confidence to restless government backbenchers or dampening over-confident wannabe ALP MPs.
For instance, saying the Libs were still “some hope” in Moreton could mean just about anything – only five points behind, with the coalition banking on a five point gain during the election…
Watch where the leaders head. The fact Rudd was in Blair yesterday, and the government tried to grab some momentum with a $34 billion tax package, tells you the ALP really thinks Blair will fall and that the coalition is a long way behind and needed a huge circuit breaker.
Costello’s correct on this one, as far as it goes. There’s something called a “low-income tax benefit” or some such that effectively raises the level of the threshold for low-income families. It’s actually a very good idea, because it targets those who will benefit most, and it’s far cheaper than raising the $6000 threshold. Costello’s proposing that the benefit is doubled, from $750 to $1500.
There’s plenty to criticise Costello about, just get your facts straight.
Coota, the leaked internal polling was quite accurate in 2004. I suspect its also accurate in 2007. However, of course they’re not going to leak bad results. I think the ALP will quite comfortably win 2 in Qld, but will struggle for more.
Supposedly Qld, WA, SA and Vic aren’t showing big swings, and the Libs believe they can hold 1 in Tas. Makes you wonder where the 56/44 TPP are coming from. It’s hard to believe all 4 pollsters could have sampling methods that present roughly the same results.
If ever anyone wanted to see the large disconnect between the political industry (PI) and the voters – just look at the reporting of yesterday’s tax cuts.
This is how the PI see it : All of sudden the Coalition has seized the initiative and is building momentum. Now the ALP is on the back foot. They need to announce something quickly or they’ll look like they are economic non-raters. Crucial minutes are ticking away.
This is how the voters see it: what’s Howard up to now? A tax cut, oh yeh. Didn’t he do that earlier in the year and besides it’s our money anyway.
The PI asks “so will it change your vote?” The voters answer “why would it? He’s just trying to buy our votes. It’s just another Howard trick”
That’s it in a nutshell. There’s no seizing of anything except the imagination of the political industry. Look back to the glowing reporting of the May budget, and then have a look at all the predictions of it being Rudd’s Tampa etc etc etc, and then have a look at the polling and see if there isn’t a yawning chasm between was the PI thinks goes on and what is really going on.
Vic and SA appear to be swinging significantly to the ALP.
And, of course, there’s the crown jewel of NSW…
Regarding Queensland, they have only said that certain seats are not swinging to the ALP and given what seats they are, it’s to be expected.
the only ones enamoured with the tax cuts seems to be Peter Hendy and co, theres been a few economists warn about the pressure they’ll put on interest rates, other than that the reception’s fairly lukewarm.
Scotty @ 8: I suppose the difference this time is that the election has now been called – at least, that’s what the government will be hoping for.
LETP @18: good point. If the internals are right, where IS that 56-44 TPP coming from? Maybe in already safe Labor seats, and safe Coalition seats?
What do people thin Labor will do re the tax thing? Now they have the fiscal outlook, they may run with, say about $4 billion less in tax cuts, and promise to directly pump that $4 billion into hospital funding. Try to strike a balance rather than just do a full-on “me too”.
And what about the PM with Red Kerry last night? That was a very petulant display at the end from so seasoned a performer. Quite bizarre really. Howard does nothing by accident, it may have been a “I’m here to fight” image he was trying to get across. It looked, imo, more like a Latham handshake moment.
SA doesn’t appear to be swinging hard in the slightly marginal seats like Boothby and Sturt and they are swinging enough (but not in a jaw-dropping way) in the marginals they need to win like Makin, Wakefield and Kingston. HOWEVER, the ALP seem to be showing a very large overall swing in SA.
Why? Well, according to the Newspoll aggregate done a few weeks ago, the ALP were showing modest swings in the safe ALP seats and marginal seats, larger swings in the safeish Liberal seats but HUGE swings in the safe Liberal seats like Grey, Mayo and Barker. These swings aren’t large enough to unseat the members concerned (except perhaps with the exception of Grey, where there is no incumbency factor), but the swings appear to be very real.
As others have pointed out, this might be the real danger for the ALP this election: getting all the swings in all the wrong places. I still think they’ll do it, but they need to poll well in those seats in the 5-10% band AND ensure they win all the marginals under that AND not lose any in WA to be home and hosed.
Why would you give credence to internal polling that show results completely different to all the reputable organisations?
LTEP – “Makes you wonder where the 56/44 TPP are coming from. It’s hard to believe all 4 pollsters could have sampling methods that present roughly the same results.” Precisely. Something I think you need to keep in mind. The so called internal Liberal party polling seems to fly in the face of this. I’ll stick with the recognised independent polls thanks.
Well put, Aristotle. Yep, that’s about it. Also, the punters would have to elect the libs for the next 100 years or so to actually get these tax cuts.
I am very wary about interviews with people who say they want the money spent on hospitals and schools rather than tax cuts. They are not a reliable guide as to voting intentions and I doubt that they reflect the true feelings of those interviewed. In my opinion, floating voters want better services but they also want their tax burden relieved. They think the more acceptable answer is to highlight the need for increased government spending on infrastructure to the exclusion of personal tax cuts, lest they appear too self centred or even greedy. The Howard/Costello tax package has to be seen as a necessary step for the Coalition at the outset of the formal campaign because it gets the floaters thinking about what is in it for them if they decide to stay with Howard when they visit polling places on 24 November. Unlike LTEP, I think the ALP is well on course to win this election provided Mr. Rudd does not have any ‘birthday cake moments’ (cf. John Hewson in the 1993 campaign). However, if the (pessimistic) LTEP is correct and the Government is returned with a reduced majority, this tax package will have played its part (appealing to the floaters in the outer metropolitan and regional marginals AND the well-to-do in traditionally ’safe’ Liberal held electorates who have been telling opinion pollsters since last year that they are presently minded to vote for the ALP).
27 David Charles I’ve seen polling done, showing a large majority of people would prefer their taxes to go on infrastructure and services.
There was a referendum in California where the people voted against tax cuts.
I find it hard to believe Bonner is the only seat the ALP will pick up in QLD. Longman and Petrie were always unlikely prospects, and the council amalgamation stuff might be playing against Labor still especially in Petrie.
According to a poll on the news.com.au site: 63% of respondents would prefer the surplus is spend on health and education rather than more tax cuts.
I think the Liberals have probably rolled the dice and sensibly decided to go for a “big-hitting” item to kick-off the election campaign. The libs are a long way behind in the polls and need to make every day count. I think the worst thing Rudd and co. can do now is be rushed into releasing their tax policy. They should absorb the baiting that Captain Smirk will inevitably indulge in, and stick to their guns, and campaign timetable. If the ALP have really done their homework, they would have anticipated these tax cuts, as its the same old card this lot have played time and time again.
A further thought about combining the tax cuts and the Liberal-Lawyers cabinet into one line: they are Elitist tax cuts designed by an Elitist cabinet. The biggest tax benefits go (as always under Howard) to the biggest incomes. Where are the benefits for young people, single people or those still not able to afford to buy a home? Meanwhile with the surplus safely squandered on tax cuts there is no risk that more money will go into health or education.
As for the Elitist tag on the Howard cabinet, despite styling himself as the battler’s friend, Howard and most of his cronies are private school educated lawyers. Rudd went to a State school – I wonder how many of Howard’s lot could say the same? When people nickname Downer “Lord Downer”, it seems to fit for a reason.
Owing to the ongoing UNIONS BOO campaign and some juicy infighting among the Libs
i have updated my prediction to 110 -115 seats to Lab
unfortunately the good ship Liberal just shot off grapeshot instead of heavy shot
ps are these tax cuts core or non-core ,back of envelope or real costings
Good post Aristotle! The last three elections have been such a disappointment, that so far this year I’ve been riding an emotional rollercoaster re Labor winning.
However, I’m sustained by the excellent analyses by Possum, Piping Shrike and the blogers on this site. I now avoid the MSM (except for the ABC & Antony Green) but I still checkout the cartoons in the major dailies, at least the cartoonists are unbiased! I now use the Poll Bludger as my prime election info source and only read MSM articles if recommended & linked by Poll Blugers. So a big thank you to fellow Poll Bludgers & especially to William for providing such an excellent blog site.
The internal polling from 2004 was accurate – and in line with the public polls.
This time there is a huge disconnnect.
If you believe all the internal polling stories, then the Coalition and Labor must be polling every man, woman, cat and dog every second day. They simply don’t do that.
They have their focus groups which they use constantly, but as for internal polls in places like Grey simply doesn’t make financial sense. Why poll a seat that you hold by 10 per cent plus??? If there’s one poll in seats with 10 per cent plus margins in a year it’s a small miracle.
There are a lot of extrapolations being done on internal polls, questions on name recognition which are being used by some marginal MPs to talk up their chances.
The born-to-rule elitism of the Coalition smarties is betrayed by the incredulity with which they attack Rudd: “How dare this impostor, this pretender put himself up to run the trillion dollar economy? (He should remember his place and to stay in it)”
Actually Autocrat, I would say that Costello is wrong and being typically deceitful.
The tax free threshold is $6000 WITH a low income rebate out to $11000.
Now for the average taxpayer, they don’t pay attention to detail – they see the headline Tax Free Threshold is $11000. They don’t take in that anyone on near the average salary still only has a tax free threshold of $6000.
Policy wise, I think it is fine and well targetted. However, it is not what is being sold.
Rx is an abbreviation for treatment, is that correct?
The tax cut bribe so early in the campaign shows the Libs are truly desperate. It is obviously intended to get some attention and maybe a bit of a bounce, but what do they do next? I predict Labor will deliver a big policy announcement in the next few days to counter. Labor can chew over the Libs tax cut figures for a while and then come up with their own version. With money to burn, it won’t be hard to match the government bribe.
ALl this talk about internal polling, and which seats are really swinging….once an election is called, there’s an easy way to find out the truth.
Just follow the leaders’ itineraries. They will travel to the seats that their own private polling shows are in danger/can be won. Rudd’s trip to Blair was a good example (as are Howard’s continual visits to Bennelong!).
And BTW…I was talking to friend yesterday who’s just been on holiday in FNQ. He said he spoke to quite a few older people on holiday from Sydney’s North Shore. They were sick of Howard, and were particularly sick of the Coalition’s continued emphasis on the economy. They said it’s not all about the economy. I suppose that’s what happens when you’ve done a good job with the economy and people aren’t worried about it any more. But I suspect voters will be after a broader spread of policies than just tax cuts, and will respond well to stuff on health, education/training etc.
The voters who care most about the economy are young families in mortgage belts. No doubt Howard/Costello are appealing directly them, as they did last election. But there are still a hell of a lot of older voters who are economically comfortable but want better health facilities and a better deal for the less well-off, and young voters who aren’t yet into the mortgage trap, but worry about rents, HECs, WorkChoices and so on.
Juiggin on the bouncy, narrowing tax cuts.
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/16/betting-on-the-bounce/
# 22 – Burgey, it seemed to me that Howard was carrying some extreme irritation with himself for buggering up his answers to Tracey Grimshaw, just minutes earlier, about the average weekly wage and the cash rate. On the day when he was trying to go all out on his economic credentials, this was a very, very serious blunder. He knew that many more people would have been watching ACA than were tuned in to Red Kezza…
Look at the way Howard signed off from the ACA interview…it was even more petulant that the way he signed off from the 7.30 Report.
I still say the bookies are the best guide. That’s based on my experience placing bets with them in the last 3 federal elections and numerous state elections. On the basis of what the bookies are saying, the Liberals are a basket case in:
Qld. – Bonner and Moreton
NSW – Eden-Monaro, the notionally-Liberal Parramatta, Lindsay and Dobell
Tas. – Bass and Braddon
SA – Wakefield, Makin and Kingston
NT – David Tollner’s seat
That’s a total of 12 seats. All the ALP need to do is another seat in each of WA, Vic, NSW and Qld and they have a majority.
In any event, Deakin, McMillan, Bowman and two WA marginals are line-ball in the terms of odds on offer
It follows that all the reporting about the ALP needing a huge swag in Qld and/or elsewhere is totally misconceived (although I acknowledge those Kevinistas amongst you would be hoping for something more than a bare majority)
Chinster at 23
From quarterly newspoll analysis I have only seen:
safe Labor (ie margin >= 6%): 7% swings
marginals (ie margin +/- 6%): 8% swing
safe Liberal (ie margin >=6%): 12% swing
(Average swings across Australia)
This might mean that the most likely seats to fall are
the very marginal coalition ones and the coalition ones
held with margins between 6% and 10%.
Have you seen results which
give the slightly more detailed information which you
mention? That is, different swings in within the less
and more safe coalition seats.
Rudd and Swan have come out and said that a tax policy is far too important to be rushed and must be fiscally responsible and exactly right, they will not be rushed and will bring out their policy when they are ready and wont be bullied into it.
good for them, it makes them seem to be steady and unfazed.
the warnings are out.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22587576-5006301,00.html
John Howard, keeping interest rates lower in his own mind than they actually are.
On bookmakers again.
Does anyone have any rough guides as to how much money is being put on individual seat betting? A rough total will do.
I recall seeing somewhere that pollsters will do reasonable individual seat polling for around $2000.
I am just trying to work out whether it is likely that the betting companies are doing individual seat polling to help them set their odds.
And as I posted in the last thread last night, from figures from SportingBet there is often a big difference between the ratios of money put on outcomes in an individual seat and the odds offered by the company. The amounts at risk for the betting companies if they get the answer wrong are probably big enough to justify getting polling done.
Perhaps we can work out what extra knowledge the betting companies have over the punters from looking carefully at these differences.
It is desperation on the Coaliton’s part to release such a big-ticket item so early in the campaign. People will have forgotten about it by polling day, but the Coalition needs momentum now.
As to internals, there could be strange things going on in particular seats. However, if Labor gets more than 51% they will probably win; if they get 56% it’ll be a smashing landslide with Labor winning 100+ seats. Rely on national and statewide polls, not on individual seat polling. Newspoll had Labor at 58-42 in the marginals in its last quarterly analysis, and at 48-52 in the Coalition safe seats.
Snakeboy
It was a blunder by Howard and received little hype, imagine the distress and hysteria the MSM would be in if it had happened to K.Rudd, it would have been all over after day one.
On the debates, K.Rudd should have 2 with Howard and 1 with Costello.
This would highlight the stupidity of the 2 leaders for one strategy the Libs have embarked on.
Roll on Nov24.
# 50 – True enough Ebenezer…but the million or so people who were watching ACA saw Howard’s naked irritation and don’t need any more MSM to ram it home. Don’t underestimate the power of the water cooler and other word of mouth.
On the betting markets for individual seats, they would be skewed, wouldn’t they, by the placing of any reasonable sized bet on any candidtate, given the small amoount placed on the result in each seat to date.
So, if an agency is holding, say $5000 on Parramatta, and someone comes in with a bet of $500 on a candidate, it would have to effect the odds fairly markedly for that seat, wouldn’t it?
Snakeboy Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 10:15 am
“John Howard, keeping interest rates lower in his own mind than they actually are.”
Clearly the mantra is buried deep in his sub-conscious.
Antonio 40 – I agree. The tax cuts will appeal to anarrow band of voters who need some extra cashflow. There are many more voters out there looking for changes and new policy in areas such as health, education, the environment and aged care for example. Labor will match the Libs tax bribe in their own good time.
Chinster at 23 you are plain wrong. The last Newspoll summary in the marginals was a whopping 58-42. This fallacy that Labor are getting swings in the wrong places is just desparation on behalf of the government
“Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written offâ€â€™ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman.”
What a load of cobblers!
Who are these mysterious masked endoscope-wielding proctologists who perform “internal polling” on behalf of Team Rodent; do they bulk bill and has their been any rorting with respect of over-servicing?
Furthur, which members never have to be reminded about their check up dates?
Gadzooks! “there been”
Thanks Burgey.
I would have thought that too.
But as I noted last night in the previous thread, this does not seem to be the case. The bookies seem to have their own reasons for setting odds independently of how the betting is going.
Sportingbet put out amount figures for 29 seats.
For Stirling for example, the odds have stayed at 1.85 vs 1.85 for months.
However, 70% of the money has been put on the Liberal.
This suggests to me that Sportingbet has its own inside knowledge, eg from individual seat polling which shows an easy win to Labor. Thus sportingbet is happy to live with large amounts of money being put on the Liberal knowing that it is effectively a donation to them. They do not have to adjust their odds.
Yeah, the rodents terse sour ‘Mmm’ that followed being caught out on interest rates was hilarious – particularly after he went so hard on Rudd for not knowing precisely the income tax rates. I think Howard was mortified by this error and it showed when he talked to Kerry Obrien – he’d given up the humble ‘if the aust people would be so kind to re-elect me’ speil and was back to his angstsy twitching best. If the libs don’t get a bounce in the polls after this tax announcement get your binoculars out cos I suspect the little fellow is going to melt down.
Re the interest rate gaff, Howard shouldn’t have been so disturbed. Its clear from a read of this mornings media that the MSM have no interest at all in exposing his flaws – they’ve got their sights firmly on Kev. The Govt Gazette this morning was so dribbling with praise for their mans fiscal brilliance that it was almost comical. Its a relief that nobody reads the thing and the uncle Rupe keeps it going cos he’s got a soft spot for it.
enemy,andrew et al
if you run a direct mail house or similair eg telemarketing firm blah blah
it is quite easy to spruik your services as a “pollster” either directly to a party or as sub-contractor to an existing provider
also at member/candidate level specific surveys/polls can be “tagged” on to allow extra questions specific to seat/issue
in summary most polling by the majors is spot on (allowing MOE) where the waters get muddy is when the “harvesting” and also “processing” is done by companies with little or no experience in political sampling
hope this helps
Howard’s apparent irritation was probably due to a severe attack of Delhi Belly. After all, he did stand quite close to Peter Costello earlier in the day.
52 Burgey. Another Burgess?
Chirs B @ 62: No mate, just a humble Burge.
Maybe he had bird flu from standing too close to a chicken
Sorry, very childish – too good to resist.
I live in Higgins, and my mother was polled last week, evidently by a Lib. This is clear as she was asked, “who did you vote for in 2004?” Mum said Labor, and the pollster commented, “YOU voted for Mark Latham?!”. This seems somewhat unprofessional to me. The poll focused on Costello, and so it seems the Libs are indeed somewhat worried about seats like Higgins.
Channel9 have taken down the link for J-Ho’s blooper on ACA, has anyone got the YouTube link?
Also Sky are running online poll re tax cuts would they make you vote for Gov?, this morning at 6am it was running 71% no 29% yes
now running 50/50.
In fact, I think SportingBet have given away some very interesting information to us in this list of the amounts bet.
But hey! I just went to make a copy of what they have released and it has disappeared.
I am sorry that the only one I remember is Stirling. Bugger.
I have just convinced myself that there was a wealth of important inside data probably including private individual polling results rolled up in those figures.
The bookies are not trying to match odds to what they actually believe are the chances of each side winning. They are trying to quote odds which will attract the maximum amount of betting on the losing candidate.
Thus, if SportingBet have their own data suggesting a Labor win in Stirling, but the media and the political parties are all saying its 50-50 in Stirling, then SportingBet should quote odds about 50-50 even though they are taking much more money on the Liberal.
But they must not tell us this.
If it gets out that they are not reacting to the flow of money in this way then the pro-Liberal punters will dry up, until the bookie quotes higher odds.
Isn’t that right?
Now I wish I had a copy of all the other figures. Because for nearly all the 29 seats on their list there were big differences between the public odds and the amounts bet.
for those in dobell
abc local radio 92.5 fm is having debate between lib lab candidates sometime between 11-2 today
Guess who said this? “”There are a lot of figures that float around in people’s heads,” ………………. told Southern Cross Broadcasting.
“You’re not going to get 100 per cent on all figures all the time.”
This is the same bloke who flayed Rudd in parliament over getting the tax scales wrong and now he can find excuses for his leader’s lapse. Hypocrite.
Enemy Combatant says;
“which members never have to be reminded about their check up dates?”
Shouldn’t that be date check-ups? or up-date checks?
LOL
BEHAVE EC!!
Re bookies: I presume the on-line bookies set a board rather than run a tote. If it is a tote then the odds are a reflection of who the punters think will win.
More likely it is a board and is therefore just a reflection of how the bookies think they can maximise return. In this situation to say the bookies’ odds always pick the winner – is like saying that the favourite always wins a horse race.
What I was intending to say was: do not believe any polling that asks people what they think “the issues” are. They always say health, education, the environment, yadda yadda, because they know that’s what they ought to be thinking. They never say “money in my pocket” because that looks bad. But in fact that’s what the bulk of them think.
Likewise, don’t believe polls wherein people say they would rather the surplus was spent on , education, the environment etc, rather than on tax cuts. Whitlam foolishly believed that in 1977, and so did Kinnock in 1992, and both lost. In fact the punters wanted the money, and will do so again this time.
The difference this time is that Labor also has a potent economic weapon in the repeal of WorkChoices, which will trump tax cuts in the minds of most middle-to-low-income people, including Anglo middle-to-low-income people in marginal seats, who are the crucial demographic at this election. Meanwhile the doctors wives don’t care about tax cuts either, because they’re nicely off anyway thankyou.
Why – you need to do a bit of digging (and over half the piece seems to linger on Rudd’s ‘cascade down’ moment) but you can see the blunder and grumpiness via a link on here: http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/now-the-pm-flunks-the-numbers-test-151-on-rates/2007/10/15/1192300685487.html
George Megalogenis (in the comments at
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/squeeze_on_singles_in_the_middle#21801)
The results of on-line polls and TV polls indicate nothing more than viewer demographic.
The TV polls are there just to make money, nothing more. The Advertiser always has some dumb-ass poll every day, and some days they only have about 20 odd people voting.
testing!
The Australian’s electorate map managed by Coredata (great graphics, crap data for now) seems to be missing a seat in Tasmania. I gather Denison is now optional.
The map is at
(The most amusing thing is their chamber graphic for House of Reps: fantasy election outcomes on speed).
The Courier-Mail election website has a rather nifty searchable map, which is also missing a seat (Solomon). But the text written for each seat is appalling, straight out of the Liberal Party handbook. In seat after seat we are told that the “crucial local issues” are “hoons” and “law and order”. Utter garbage. What little actual info there is about the seats has been cribbed from my website, which is rather flattering.
The lack of ANY real comment in the MSM re the inflationary effect of these tax cuts is astonishing, particularly given the Govts historical boastings about keeping interest rates low. It really drives home to you how hard it is for Labor to win government.
Kev’s kicking ass on SKY news – Housing Policy.
Agree with Adam, abolishing dorkchoices is better than a tax cut.
I reckon the ALP should keep the top rates as are, but up the income free for everyone a tidge (a general, equal tax cut), and then do something similar on low income rebates.
As for the utter nonsense in the GG about QLD – piffle. There’s no way the ALP will get less than a 5% swing, and two seats will definitely fall. Personally, I think 50-50 2PP is very likely, it which case we’ll see 4 or 5 go down.
And props to Mackerras! At least he puts he spondoolies on the line.
Im going ALP 8-10 seat majority.
And for the record: anyone who calls it for the coalition is welcome – indeed entitled – to nyah nyah me for the next year. Ill cop it sweet, and say “yes indeed, sir /madam, you were right, and I was wrong”.
But no nyaaa nyaas from fence sitters. Put yer money down!!
The Australian’s electorate map managed by Coredata (great graphics, crap data for now) seems to be missing a seat in Tasmania. I gather Denison is now optional.
The map is here.
(The most amusing thing is their chamber graphic for House of Reps: fantasy election outcomes on speed).
There’s a donkey on TV? And it’s being kicked by a politician?
I’ve got to see that.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22593949-5013871,00.html
This seems like a good tack to take on the tax policy for the ALP.
“KEVIN Rudd said the Coalition’s $34 billion tax cuts were proof they had got it wrong about how badly working families were fairing.”
Adam , I still remember from the SA state election, the local liberal candidate in Bright handing out his propaganda with “”West Bank, Beirut or Baghdad? No – It’s Adelaide 2006! How can we feel safe with Mr Rann in charge?”. This is the usual tory law and order nonsense.
Rita Bouras in Hindmarsh is a good example. Her election leaflets look like something you might make-up for a council election. There is a picture of her kneeling down looking at a cracked gutter for goodness sake ! This is woeful for a federal election candidate.
Kina Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 11:19 am
The results of on-line polls and TV polls indicate nothing more than viewer demographic.
I have a lot of fun with the Govt Gazette online polls.
Often I am the only one to vote in my Postcode and get 100% for which way I vote.
If any others in my Postcode/Electorate change that position, I just keep voting until I get my position back up again.
Hence, 80% 2PP for my Electorate, 100% for my Postcode etc.
Basically all these polls are worthless and should be treated as such. Good for entertainment value only.
LOL Autocrat
Dr Good — the sporting bet article you were talking about still seems to be available. Go to
http://www.sportingbetdecider.com/press/article012.asp
How funny is the data in the Australian’s electorate map? I can’t stop laughing at how a) not only is labour going to win 100+ seats but apparently lose Brand and win all of Sydney except McKeller and Mitchell.
Just for fun, I had a look at the online poll the GG is running. Numbers still low (about 2000 per State) but no joy for the Libs. All States are bright red!
Shockingly, Coredata don’t seem to be distributing preferences. There’s a whole 28 Lib voters in MacKellar, to 27 ALP and 9 greens, and these clowns are calling it for the government! Outrageous.
I really think we should save bandwidth and ignore these opt-in polls. Utter utter pointlessnesslessness.
(The most amusing thing is their chamber graphic for House of Reps: fantasy election outcomes on speed).
The reason why it is so ridiculous is precisely because so many people have been doing just what I outlined in my post at 88.
As I said, entertainment value only.
The only relevance they could have is if Coredata etc could have some method to ensure that people only voted once and that they were eligible voters. ie not some pimply faced 13 year olds sitting in front of a computer doing the bidding of political operators.
Adam
Why do you think that Fisk/Chomsky et al, can just be dismissed over the deep seated problems with America if a Democrat govt get’s in. I take it that they can change some stuff, but there is stuff deaper than this, – like globalisation is based on a neoliberal agenda – ie western corporate interests – you would have to reset the ideological agenda for the WB, IMF etc and I cannot see these profound changes happening under a democrat govt -with the left leaning ones yes, but they are not the dominant ones…I think there is merit in the intellectual left’s view – the problems are very deep..
Lefty E will you be leaving the country too if Labor goes down?
I suspect that many of us are getting a little carried away by the events of the first few days of the campaign. The Libs’ tax plan has certainly made a big splash, but with still well over five weeks to play, I’d be wary about arguing that anything that happens this week being especially significant.
In fact, the Libs’ tax giveaway (but only if you vote for us) is more a sign of their desperation. The Coalition is entering this campaign in as bad a shape as any government before them – they needed a big bang at the start of the campaign just to get themselves on the scoreboard. However, despite it’s favourable media coverage over the last 24 hours, it’s hard to see if giving them that much of a boost. After all, the tax cuts in the Budget sank without trace, and these ones are far more conditional, so I can’t imagine that Howard & co will get any sustained improvement in their vote.
I think we would all do well to remember that this is a 6 week campaign, and most people won’t pay that much attention until about 2 weeks out (ie after the Melbourne Cup). If there is a “soft” edge to Labor’s vote (which I doubt), then it won’t really come into play until that final fortnight. In the meantime, all Labor needs to do is watch the government desperately chase votes, and make sure that there are no ALP own-goals.
Doesn’t everyone always say they’ll leave the country if their party of choice doesn’t win?
Surprisingly, life for us little people rolls on no matter who’s in government.
EStJ, i’ll move to burma.
The Four Corners report on the secret fund raising by the Brethern on behalf of the so called Liberal Party appears to have vanished into the ether. The tax policy release may have helped bury a very serious problem for Howard and Co.
I have two “departees” so far
passthepopcorn
Adam
Anyone else?
Costellos tries to goad the ALP into releasing their tax policy today
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/answer-us-today-costello/2007/10/16/1192300723512.html
Now now Peter, just because you flashed us your naughty bits yesterday, doesn’t mean the ALP has to do it today.
ESJ
Didnt know you acted for burmese immigrants
how cute
Watch out ESJ …. I still got an egg scraper!
ESJ, are you already ‘calling’ departees?
I’ll be there at the airport waving you all off. Tears in my eyes.
ESJ
I’ll leave if the ALP lose.
I’m also leaving if they win.
But if they lose they’ll be much more petulance about it.
No, Im afraid you’re stuck with me either way, ESJ!
No Pancho, I can read the polls too – KR is still the clear cut favourite. No need to pack the Samsonites just yet.
The irony: if Labor loses this election, it will because the arrogance of Rudd will have turned people off. It would be so sweet to see him get pipped at the post – would probably knock a few cocky people here as well
But I digress.
This campaign has become very, very interesting. Day’s one & two went to the libs, and suddenly Rudd is stuck sounding like a broken record. It isn’t so easy to be a WonderKid once people start scrutinising you.
Interestingly, it seems Rudd has been trapped over tax rates. If he offers less cuts then the libs, he will take a hit for ‘not being in touch’ and so forth and so on. If he offers the same amount of cuts, then the ‘me too’ cries will once again pop up – it’s a line that’s starting to bite. If he offers more then he will be labeled as reckless and irresponsible. If he offers nothing…well, I think we can all use our imaginations. Should be an interesting 6 weeks, I’m actually starting to enjoy it. Pity Mr X isn’t gaining traction yet, but time is still available.
I saw somebody mention a ’tiser article earlier. I didn’t think it was possible – but it’s election year coverage is actually getting worse. It devoted an entire story & half a page on how the tax policy didn’t change the votes of four voters AT THE PUB – two of which were already liberal supporters, and one whom said “anything John Howard does is wrong, everything anyone else does is probably right.”
Groundbreaking Election Coverage. But wait, there is more:
The Tiser Day Two Analysis
HOWARD – 9/10
RUDD – 4/10
So there you go. Kenny Has Spoken. Stay tuned for further insightful analysis.
Good response. I was just trying to wedge you. It’s all the rage these days.
Max says:
“If Labor loses this election, it will because the arrogance of Rudd will have turned people off. It would be so sweet to see him get pipped at the post – would probably knock a few cocky people here as well But I digress.”
I’d agree with this. 40 days of Kevin Rudd on tv all day and night may be the best thing to happen for the Liberal Party. I’d put it further and suggest all the ‘letter to the editor’ writers who have lately been crowing about Howard’s inevitable demise are just tempting people to vote for him. I’ve heard numerous people say… Rudd is getting cocky… I might vote for Howard.
I think Labor would do well to keep re-enforcing the idea that they have a hard task ahead of them, the Coalition still are more likely than not to be re-elected and that every vote will be important at this election.
Glad to see you in a cheery mood, Max.
“If he offers the same amount of cuts, then the ‘me too’ cries will once again pop up – it’s a line that’s starting to bite.”
What is your evidence for this, other than wishful thinking? The ‘me-tooism’ angle has been running for months, to no effect so far.
Noon ABC ran with ALP land release policies. Only mention of tax cuts was Costello sounding silly saying Rudd must release his today.
Viewed purely as a matter of politics, the tax cuts are intended as a circuit-breaker, to get the punters to refocus from Rudd and all the bad news for the Coalition over the last few months, onto the essential equation that all conservative parties rely on, namely Liberal = more money for the property-owning class. If it works, we will see The Narrowing begin in the coming set of polls. That will mean that the Libs have some hope, although they will have to sustain this momentum for six weeks, and bearing in mind that Labor haven’t really opened their campaign yet. If The Narrowing does not occur over the next week, they really are doomed, because this is by far the biggest shot they have in their locker.
If 40 days and nights of Kevin Rudd will annoy people, I feel pretty confident that 40 days of John Howard will make annoy them even more.
Watching ACA last night is a typical example. The pop quiz asked at the end of the interview to both Howard/Rudd typified this. Howard very solemnly answered the questions and looked uncomfortable, and then made his interest rate gaffe. On the other hand, Kevin Rudd initially responded to the interviewer with “Oh, now you’ve got me worried” and a polite smile.
People like this from politicians, it makes them appear more normal. Poor old John doesn’t really smile very much anymore. He just looks grumpy.
Sean the westies on line is running big headlines about the inflationary effect of the tax cuts, in fact they seem to have only one item complimentry to the coalition, surprise, surprise!
If he maintains the tax cuts for the lower and medium income thresholds, but removes the tax cuts for the upper income thresholds, I think he will be fine. I don’t think removing the higher tax threshold cuts would trigger many ‘not being in touch’ calls (except from people who wouldn’t vote for the ALP anyway) – higher income earners will get the benefits of the lower and medium income threshold cuts regardless. If you diverted the money saved into spending on services, it would be a nice little package the ALP can spin.
adam @ 114 – i think you’re absolutely correct.
the tax cut will not enough to cover my mortgage increased due to interest rate increased thanks to this tax cut.
So Max says that 40 days of having to look at Rudd will put people off.
Really? I reckon it won’t hold a torch to the 4000+ days people have had to put-up with Howard’s mug leering at them from every TV in the land.
If familiarity breeds contempt, the Lib’s present position in th polls is no surprise.
If Liberals have given away big tax cuts now- what are they going to do for the next 39 days? And how can a 51:49 2pp spell trouble for Labour in QLD? It will be interesting to see the next opinion poll. If there is no movement in the 2pp from say 56:44 +/- 2, then it’s all over red rover”
When…
Lose the election please Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 5:32 am
Still have no reason to update my prediction of Coalition 5-7 seat majority. Another 39 days? Why won’t this nightmare just end?
It’s a big contradiction but the nightmare will end on Nov 24th but with a 30 seat majoruty to labour
from Perth Now here it is, they’re running the story about Howards $121mill. spent selling work choices ads.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/
“You talk about a whole lot of things when you’re trying to convince people to do things, but you don’t go back and honour every single one of those unless you have made a firm commitment about it and John wasn’t into making firm commitments.”
Labor should use this.
How realistic is the on-line poll re: primary vote by Coredata in the Gov Gazette…has anyone looked at the Pendulum? It is good for a laugh. Can these types of polls be at all believed? It is not possible to vote twice using the same computer I know that, but it doesn’t stop people using one at work then one at home perhaps????
The tax policy from Howard is a ‘all in’ strategy. He needs his tax plan to put the polls onto a more equal footing in for the rest of the campaign to have any hope of winning.
If the polls don’t move or move towards Labor Howard cannot have anything really major left to top the billions of dollars of tax cuts, its this gambit that is going to determine the election for Howard.
Labor on the other hand are 12 points up in the polls, they are going to be doing things on their own timetable, at least for the next few weeks
Rudd went to a State school – I wonder how many of Howard’s lot could say the same?
Bonsai himself attended Canterbury Boys High.
Hi Judy
Pardon the ignorance but whats the ‘westies’. Do you mean “the west australian’? Thats encouraging if thats the case. The GG is shocking and really gives labor a taste of what its in for. The Sydney Morning Herald is not a whole lot better. On line though the punters are really giving the OZs coverage a hammering.
Pancho@73
thank you for info
Adam@80
Sean@81
agreeing with your posts. I do recall Rupe’s ‘The Sun’ in UK influencing voters once he got behind Maggie T.
Of most concern is the obscene amounts of money, the taxpayers have been pouring into The Murkers coffers – courtesy of J-Ho & Co, is this payback time? If so, how do we counter this?
Socrates #32 – a history lesson.
The only Australian Prime Minister to be educated entirely by state schools (primary and secondary) is …
John Winston Howard.
110 Max Says:
And here’s me thinking the last poll had the ALP on a 12 point margin.
You know… just saying something doesn’t make it true. Or haven’t you figured that out?
True. In fact, some people right now are probably saying “Wow, is that John Howard guy STILL prime minister!”
There are only 2 things in this campaign that are real; they are the policy announcements by each side and the polls. We have had only 1 policy announcement by Liberal about tax and no polls, all the rest is just spin. In light of this, what do you think of Julia Gillard’s hair lately? It looks great. So it is important to date someone who knows hair care products. A positive in my opinion
The problem with Max’s view re Rudd is that he’s implicitly suggesting that Howard is the sort of guy that the punters would like to hang out with. I suspect Max might be the sort of guy who stands in the corner at parties
# 124 – sean, at least the SMH online still has a link to Howard’s gaffe on ACA…which the GG has assiduously avoided all day.
just a little point
money,power etc as drivers are well and good but what is happening here in oz is pure time lag stuff
most countries gvts are assesing their “value add”role
consequently and with ref to the uk us etc
we are seeing a generational/perspective shift
the mass of people want the core services and values that unfortunatelly disintegrated under Howards regime
simple
ps good idea not to critique lib print media-gives em ideas
Mr. Rudd should lower company tax rates to 27.5% for small business (say under 50 employees). In part, as compensation for the unfair dismissal stuff. In part, it might swing small business/families to Labor or at least partly nullify the anger. Wrong foot the coalition. It’d be an incentive for business’ to grow and underline Labor as pro-business. Further, it would highlight and underline Labor as the new party of the middle. Ties in to his re-building the nation agenda.
Labor shouldn’t be tempted to configure their tax cuts in the same way that the Howard government has its’ cuts arranged. Howard is there for the big headlines and that’s all his tax cuts are aimed at achieving… big headlines in the first week. Targetted tax cuts – can be used to stimulate growth without being inflationary.
The only thing that surprises me about Howard’s cuts is that they did it from the election campaign. I thought they’d go back to parliament – lock them in and then dare Rudd to take the money away. I guess they thought it would make a bigger impact in Day 1 of the campaign proper.
It was on their front page late last night. I see no reason why they took it down. Other than tha tax policy, it was the major event of yesterday.
{It is not possible to vote twice using the same computer I know that,}
Ally B, you can’t have been taking much notice of the numerous posters outlining just how easy it is to multiple vote.
See my post @ 88 and the earlier one.
Evan @ 120
Abso-bloody-lutely! The little creep has been polluting the box for, it seems, the past 300 years.
I think it is a bad idea increasing the gap between the business tax rate, and the top personal income tax rate. This just encourages more rich people to set up sham companies as a way of avoiding paying income tax, by converting it to business tax.
I think Rudd’s tax plan will focus on people who earn up to $70,000 a year. It will give those people bigger tax cuts that kick in sooner, at the expense of tax cuts for people who earn over $70,000 p.a.
The thing is this. Now that the government has promised $34 billion in 3 years of tax cuts. Labor can cut taxes, or spend up to that amount. The government has given away what the upper spending limit is, while still keeping the budget in surplus by 1% of GDP.
Max – 110 You obviously don’t keep up with economic debate in Australia. The proposed tax cuts (repeat ‘proposed’) are just what most economic commentators have been suggesting for years! So there is nothing innovative about the Libs announcement, just a desperate attempt to get in the game.
I wonder how expensive it would be to eliminate the top income tax bracket all together (and then lower the second highest one to around 35%). That would create major headlines and would put business more onside with Rudd. Don’t know if it makes political or economic sense tho…
John Rocket Says: @ 136
{ In part, it might swing small business/families to Labor or at least partly nullify the anger. }
John, the number of possible swinging voters in small business is infinitesimal.
The total number of possibles that Labor could get Australia wide combined, would not be enough to make a difference in one, single, marginal seat.
Rich ppl don’t need encouragement to set up sham companies or minimise tax – don’t worry, they’ve all got them set up, just fine, right now!
Nah, it’s more about the symbolism of the move. It would cut through a lot of the attacks the government have – the whole ‘Labor is anti-business/ pro-union’ thing they’ve got going.
Something like this would be a bit more imaginative that just the bucket loads of cash for _everyone_ imagery the Coalition so love! (They should get the same company that does the Lotto ads to do their election ads. I can just see Mr. Howard on top of that semi-trailer full of cash, with a shovel, and with the battlers leaping and yelling below!)
John C, sorry my error on Howard. The general point on his collective Cabinet still seems valid though, where I think the Elitist label fits well.
As for the tax cuts, one thing it does highlight to me – if they are really going to give back all the surplus with large tax cuts, George Bush style, then they obviously have no intention of making any significant change to public spending on health and education. Let alone infrastructure or climate change.
I would say if the polls go backwards in the next week or dont get under 552PP by 10 November you can pronounce the death of JWH. If JWH is going to win it will be a sneak from behind win in the last 2 weeks -hence “The narrowing” will only start late in the piece.
I think there are positive impressions of KR out there but they havent crystallised. I suspect the Liberals are hoping for a birthday cake moment to crystallise some negative tag on KR. The negative ads will also take some time to drive up his negatives from 24%, I believe his negatives will be at least 35% by the time the campaign ends, win lose or draw.
The real issue with tax for Labor is that they havent thought through what they believe. If you are a me too conservative party then you dont think people earning in excess of $70K per annum are rich, but as Marky Marky pointed out if you accept these parameters on tax you accept a conservative position or approach to government. It appears Labor has decided in opposition it cannot make the case against middle class welfare.
I suspect KR will try to have his cake and eat it too – broadly the same as JWH with a few tweaks here and there.
For those Victorians out there,
An independent is expected to declare in Corio – non-issue or a potential calamity for Labor?
I suspect that Labor will pump out large tax cuts similar to the Coalition. I’d like to see something dramatically different done with the money… image what the hospital system would look like if 34 billion was spent on health instead? Boy would that grab some headlines too.
But sadly I think it will be more tax cuts instead, presented in a different way. I think they’ll undercut the libs though in order to underline their “fiscal prudence”.
I think the boldest solution for Labor would be to spend only about half of the 34 billion on tax cuts and use the rest to making some impressive changes to health and education. That would show the libs as being financially irresponsible and emphasize that Labor has a plan and has its priorities right. I doubt it will happen, but it would be awesome to see Rudd stand up and show some leadership on this. After all, if he wins he’s the one who’s going to have to cop interest rate rises.
Post 138 Scorpio – No that is correct because I haven’t had time to be glued to my computer reading every post on this site – I come to it occasionally …..can you indicate where to find these posts (ie about what time were they being discussed) and I will have a read. Thanks
Typo: Replace ‘image’ with ‘imagine’ in the second line of my last post.
Apparently Labor has collared Access Economics to do the fine tuning of their policy work for them. Don’t think they’ll be mixing fire and fuel the way Costello did yesterday.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/see-fire-add-some-petrol-economic.html
Just saw where to read re multiple votes – Scorpio @ 88..thanks
AllyB — you mean you have a life? That just won’t do. All of your political credibility is now lost.
Andrew Landeryou reports that Tony Smith is “gravely worried” about losing Casey (margin 11.4%). Landeryou may or may not be a ratbag, but he’s a well-informed ratbag, and this seems to be a credible report.
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/
If so it confirms the view that the big swings are happening in the Volvo suburbs and not the Kingswood suburbs (or maybe both).
{Poor old John doesn’t really smile very much anymore. He just looks grumpy.}
He doesn’t have very much to smile about these days does he.
Twelve months of polls further south than Tasmania and after the Gaffe on ACA last night as well as the petulant interview with “Red Kerrie”, when he got home he had to face a quite upset Janette, waiting at the door with the wooden spoon in her hand.
I bet Johnnie’s backside was still red when he woke up this morning.
AllyB you can keep on voting if you delete your cookies every time.
Sean it’s the Perth Now site, the only good thibg they had for the coalition was that business lauded the tax cuts, knowing their usual anti labor bias i was stunned.
Yep, small business alone won’t win a seat, Scorpio, that’s true. But small business people are the ‘connectors’ in a community. They do all the chattng with the locals – ppl ask them their opinions. Get small business on side and you get a fair number of others in their orbit – it would do a modicum of good. Plus, a real fault line in todays capitalism is the rift between small business and the big corporates. Doing something for small business wedges the ‘business lobby’ nicely.
David Charles 9:24am
It’s the attitude that you say some people possess that is the reason Howard even bothers with bribery in the first place. I’m sure everyone would agree that some extra cash is nice but OTOH I think many people would agree that sometimes enough is enough.
Here is the sentiment that I think is shared by sufficient voters to lose the election for Howard:
Howard is sitting on a huge stash of dosh. He rakes it in but won’t spend any of it on anyone other than himself. He reduces spending on things that matter like health. He increases revenue by allowing bracket creep to go largely uncorrected. He has a revenue windfall from the global boom. He refuses to share it with the states (although fair enough that any sharing should be safeguarded against squandering). The country is falling into disrepair. He’s fuelling interest rates. He’s sold off all the revenue raisers like Telstra which means he has to replace that lost revenue with extra taxes. And when an election comes around, he magnanimously hands out a few crumbs crumbs to the plebs. And loaves to voters that his market research tells him will vote for him. That’s a plan for Howard but no plan for a nation.
# 155 – Scorpio, I think you’ll find that it was a silver spoon. And it wasn’t in her hand.
Yeah, I think that Rudd will offer substantial tax cuts targeted to the middle and lower end, but less than what the libs are offering because there are different rules for the Labor and liberal parties on budget matters. Ideally, as Ashley says, they’d use any additional money (up to what the govt is p..ing against the wall in tax cuts) on health, education, infrastructure. This would be a solid response and very difficult (even for the GG) to argue with.
Apparently the govt have quarantined another 4 billion for unspecified (election pork) spending innitiatives. They may make an attempt to throw these dollars at health/education etc, though its clearly against their neo-lib principles which dictate user pay. Brace yourself because the media has clearly given the libs a license to spray money everywhere without being held to account.
I posted this on the other thread but I’m posting it again in response to Max.
Labor has two options I think.
Option A is if Labor wanted to stake its chances on the intelligence and foresight of the electorate (a risky move) they could ask them to forego the tax cuts in exchange for 34 billion worth of improved health and education services and public infrastructure.
Alternative they could take the cautious Option B in the knowledge that an extra 40-odd bucks a week instead of improved services and infrastructure (not to mention IR laws) will impress enough people to swing the election.
Under Option B they could match the bracket changes in the lower 3 brackets and keep the rates as they are – just as the government is proposing. Keep the limit between the two brackets above that at 150,000 (or at least not raise it by so much), and keep the rates in the upper 2 brackets as they are now instead of reducing them.
For most people the tax cut would be the same – for those earning between 80,000 and 150,000 it would be a slighly smaller cut. The big difference would be for those earning more than 150,000 but they probably wouldn’t vote Labor anyway.
There will be less money available for public projects still more than under Howard’s plan and at least the money won’t be going into new Volvos for Madison’s eighteenth birthday.
The independent in Corio is of course the deselected sitting member Gavan O’Connor (known in Canberra as Ronocco Navag because he’s so backward – geddit?). He’s a bitter old loser and I doubt he will make much impact against an excellent candidate in Richard Marles. Dumped sitting members who think they’re indispensible and run as independents usually do badly.
Yeti – I think you will find Labor is well represented amongst the top 50 wealthiest electorates.
110 Max That maybe the case, but there will be no movement in the polls.
Scorpio 155
Very perceptive comment. I suspect there’s been some dramatic and highly disturbing scenes at Kirribilli and beyond of late. Lots of sleepless nights and rantings and ravings about 2006, and retirement and if only…..Jannette must be in a real state
John Rocket, are you channelling JWH? Do you mean ‘aborigines’?
I love how the libs are referring to their proposed tax cuts as a “plan” for the future. These clowns do not deserve to be in charge of the country. Any dunce can come up with tax cuts. They also seem to think that the bigger the dollar value of any announcement they make, the better it must be. I cannot believe how friggin stupid these guys are, or how stupid they think the Australian public is. They don’t have plans, ideas, or leadership.
Why not just install my wife as PM if all it takes is the ability to spend billions of dollars?
Oh Bugger……………….
Even in the pre-election campaign climate, Tasmania’s health system got more than its fair share of political attention. Now it is set for some more.
A Freedom of Information (FOI) search conducted by the ABC has learned that the Federal Government did not seek advice from its own Health Department before announcing the controversial takeover of the state’s Mersey Hospital in August.
Now doctors in the state have issued an ultimatum to the Federal Government. Take over all of Tasmania’s public hospitals, or none at all.
The doctors are angry that the Government did not receive independent clinical advice before making the announcement on the $45 million takeover.
“Edward StJohn Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 11:57 am
I have two “departees†so far
passthepopcorn
Adam
Anyone else?”
Yeah, Eddy, but rather than a “departee”, I’ll be a renditionee.
Gitmo; water ‘n’ board courtesy of El Rodente’s bestest sleepover buddy, Crawford George.
On the upside, people say I look terrific in orange and maybe public outrage will get me sprung back to Oz before the fed. election following 24/11/07. Geez I’ll miss blogging.
If Labor *really* wanted to grab some headlines with tax, they could index the scales to inflation. Then they could effectively say they would be giving you a tax cut for the rest of your life.
Ebenezer 10:23am
Good point Eb. Since Howard reckons there are two leaders, Rudd has every right to demand to debate both of them. Hard to demand your 2 and 1 but certainly 1 each, or possibly debate them together and let Howard and Costello take turns answering
After you, old chap. Oh no old boy, after you
Channeling JWH?… JWH never apologises, not for anything – at anytime – ever! and certainly not to the aborigines! (He’s an artefact and an artefact get certain exemptions… really, it’s much better than having a seniors card! You get ethical discounts as well!)
The $34b figure is as meaningful as ’street values’ quoted for drug seizures. Lazy journalism, the gap between expected tax revenue with and without this policy would be a lot less as bracket creep and economic growth will pay for most. On tax does labor appeal to the middle-strata or target low income workers?
Rudd should demand three debates:
- one with Howard
- one with Costello
- one with a panel of other leadership contenders (Turnbull, Abbott etc)
This would also make it impossible for the Liberals to hold on to bracket creep for 2 years, then cut the tax rates and / or adjust the scales in election years, which they call a “tax cut”, when it is really just handing back some of the bracket creep.
Thanks Judy – now I understand..of course. I was wondering how others seem to be able to vote more than once and I wasn’t able to….now I can see why its a load of sh%T….still nice to dream of such results……..
Apparently, there is a group in the 30-70k range who are worse off under the new tax regime if loss of family tax benefits is taken in to account. Jon Faine interviewed a women professor from Sydney this morning. So it must be true.
The nett effect more most is $10-15 per week. Hardly much to excite anyone at all. If the effect is increased interest rates ,then no one is any better off.
The real purpose of these changes is to encourage a higher participation rate at the bottom end.
Labor might be best advised to wait until November 7 and see what the Reserve Bank does, fix any anomalies that appear, endorse the package and move on.
The only thing more annoying than listening to another 39 days of Rudd asking and answering his own questions, is another 39 days of listening to the Emperor in Waiting Costello. I thought Rudd was annoying until I heard Costello this morning. If the Libs want a chance to win they need to take Costello, Downer and Andrews and hide them in a box until after the election. Wayne Swan may be boring and makes you fall asleep in front of the telly but Costello makes you want to throw the telly out the window.
Well if they wait till the middle of next week we’ll have a pretty good idea what the Reserve is going to do because of the inflation data coming out.
I generally agree that Gavan O’Connor probably won’t be a huge threat in Corangamite, although Adam’s comments at 163 are utter piffle.
O’Connor is a well-known, popular local member, and Marles, the guy who replaced him, is widely viewed as an interloping union hack. The Geelong Advertiser hates Marles’ guts, and it isn’t an uncommon sentiment in the area.
This said, I think O’Connor has left his run too late. He should have quit the party soon after he lost preselection, at the height of the anti-Marles fervour, and tried to go the local independent route. It would have given him the necessary extra publicity and time to organise a strong election campaign, and acted as a heads-up to the Liberals to run dead. Members who wait until the eve of the election to quit after losing preselection rarely do well – I’m not sure I can think of a single example of someone being re-elected in that situation at either federal or state level. It’s exceptionally hard in this day and age for any deselected MP, regardless of popularity, to actually survive as an independent, and I’m afraid that O’Connor’s going to be no different.
It will be interesting to see how he goes, and if he can actually get people out on booths, he could well surpass the Liberal candidate (who has some profile from running for Lara at the 2006 state election, but is otherwise a bit of a dropkick). I think Marles will ultimately win, but expect O’Connor to poll a healthy slice of the vote.
“Thanks Judy – now I understand..of course. I was wondering how others seem to be able to vote more than once and I wasn’t able to….now I can see why its a load of sh%T….still nice to dream of such results……..”
I know I said I wouldn’t, but I checked out Coredata again. Currently it looks like Alex Hawke will be the sole Liberal holding the fort in Sydney… no, hang on… in all of New South Wales. Such a nice young man too.
It is Reaganomics revisited. The government is hoping that cutting taxes will get more people into work, which will increase demand, which will expand the economy so that even more people get into work.
I don’t think they should endorse the entire thing. They should focus on giving bigger tax cuts sooner to people below say $70,000.
They should spend the rest on health, education, and child care
No one at the top except suckers pay more than 30% which is the business tax rate. Only an idiot would give himself such a high salary and not take it as company dividends.
The exception of course is heads of corps and boards of PLC’s who have to disclose all this, but there are more loop holes than there are people in this group.
How does cutting taxes get more people into work? People will think to themselves… ‘gee I’ll be getting a good deal now!’ and decide to get off their lazy bums? People’s knowledge of tax rates etc. are pretty low so I find that hard to believe.
Perhaps Labor can look at cutting tax rates on overtime and public holiday pay. I’ve heard my Dad complain about the lack of incentive to work these days due to the huge tax slugs on numerous occasions.
Exactly, Ashley and we will have days and days of speculation, intrigue, comment on rising interest rates. The constant chatter will certainly resonate with home buyers and they will know who to blame.
Will not play well for Howard.
LETP @ 185
The aim is to get mums, pensioners and others that work say 1 day a week for an annual salary less than $10k to consider working another day or two per week.
A query for the punters out there who know their way around a trade union, which I don’t.
What does a ‘poltical officer’ do in a trade union? and what types of roles fall into the category of poltical officer.
The reason I ask is that Mike Symon, the ALP candidate for Deakin, describes himself as an OH & S officer for the ETU on his ALP website (and is described as such on Antony Greens ABC site), but on Adam Carr’s web site and the ETU site, he is political officer, and does not come up as OH+S officer.
I can understand that OH+S officer is much more ‘warm and fuzzy’ for the punters out there.
I think we should all settle down talking about interest rate. The key determining factor in this whole thing will be the September CPI figures – 0.9%+ rise will probably lead to an interest rate rise, assuming that Stevens has the guts to pull the trigger 3 weeks before an election (and there’s nothing to suggest that he won’t).
One thing I note is how quickly both the death penalty debate and the reconciliation referendum have fallen off the agenda – it shows that in a week’s time, we almost certainly won’t be talking about tax cut (and neither will ordinary voters) unless Labor decides to release their plan around then. I’m beginning to think JWH has mistimed the release of his tax policy – since most polls are taken over the weekend, surely it would have been better to release it on Thursday, to ensure it would have the maximum impact on the polls…
adl 12:27pm
great post!
There is no way there will be an interest rate rise before the election. Whoever gets elected will get a lovely present in December.
Won’t it be hilarious to see the Punters flip out if the ALP is elected and there’s an interest rate rise within a week of their election?
Well, for what it’s worth, the article on Howard’s interest rates senior moment is #4 on the popular stories list on the Age website vs. #10 for the piece about the tax cuts. As far as I know, these are ordered by number of views.
I don’t think he had a choice. He had to basically go with his biggest policy announcement straight away just to get some attention.
Why are you so sure of this? Why did Glen Stevens say he would shift rates whenever he thought necessary if he didn’t mean it?
This in itself could be construed as a political intervention opposing the ALP. Why would it be OK to intervene then, but not during the campaign?
Looks like the National Identity Card is set to be scrapped by Labor – another Billion Dollars saved. It has been plagued by problems and cost over runs and scrapping it can only be a good result.
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,22592265-15306,00.html
Yo ho ho @ 191,
I agree with ShowsOn @ 193 – if Stevens doesn’t raise interest rates in November, he’ll probably have to wait until the December quarter CPI figures come out in January to be able to raise interest rates without being open to accusations of political impropriety.
Funny how after two days so many people are talking about Labor losing the election.
An OHS officer is an elected representative and his actions and appointment ismandatory and covered by the OHS act which can be looked under http://www.worksafe.vic.gov.au .It is quite a big role if there are a lot of employees.
193 yes he had to play the right bower to see if Rudd is holding the jocker
One thing I noticed about that “Perth Now” website is that a lot of their stories are up to 4 days old or more.
Copyright must run out after a couple of days and it is then OK to plagiarize stories from Eastern state publications?
Howard said “Australia’s economy not ‘all about China’”
well, lets be more precised: it’s all about resource boom.
And for this I don’t see Australia different from oil-rich countries in
Middle East, they just pump up and sell their oil.
We virtually live off our resource.
I beleive Australia can do better than that, with creativity and innovations.
My vote is for a change of governent. Anyone but Howard!
The closer the Allies got to Berlin, the more the Feheur told his followers that victory was certain.
A lot of Liberal supporters cannot believe the public would be so stupid to change governments now.
A lot of Labor supporters know that voters re-elected this government in 1998, 2001 and 2004.
It’s not surprising to think a lot of people think the ALP will lose.
From my monitoring, the reaction to the tax-cut bribe has gone from tepid to smelly. It’s certainly on the nose today. Won’t be surprised if this brew turns toxic and has to be carted off by blokes in zoot suits for disposal.
Swing Lowe, I anticipate that there’ll be polls taken mid-week now; I expect Galaxy to report late this week. Newspoll will poll every weekend now, so other polls will want to get their own scoops in without clashing with Newspoll. See here for my campaign poll schedule:
http://ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=929
the rodent has declared he’ll be at the great hall on sunday for a debate. the question is, will he be chatting quietly amongst himself?
The Iraqi information Minister was famous for making similar claims as US troops poured into Baghdad, BrissyRod. Morale is not a strongpoint of team rodent at present.
LTEP is correct.
Liberal voters seem to be over-confident (although I notice a noticeable softening in attitudes from our regular conservative correspondents on this blog in this regard).
Labor voters seem to be pessimistic (and rightly so, given how awfully the last campaign was handled). I still rate Labor favourite, but there’s no way I’m going to call this election just yet.
GG @ #187 says
The proposed tax cuts are only on annual incomes above $30k. I doubt that this will have any impact on people on incomes less than $10k p.a.
Current tax rates are:
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/content.asp?doc=/content/12333.htm&pc=001/002/046/002/002&mnu=1045&mfp=001/002&st=&cy=1
Proposed tax rates are:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/pledge-to-cut-tax/2007/10/15/1192300657771.html
Yes, the tax politics for Rudd are simple: smaller overall spend, but higher impact in the low and middle brackets.
Should be achievable.
Well, if Mr. Rudd is a no-show on Sunday night… Mr. Howard can always debate Mr. Costello! Those two are joined at the hip at the moment aren’t they!
There’s some info form someone at Liberal campaign headquarters at The Bulletin blog.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/tax_cuts_cant_buy_politicians_love_anymore.htm
The insider says the tax policy was announced early as a way of winning over people who vote via postal votes, especially those voters in marginal easts.
Apparently over the next few days there is going to be a lot of letterboxing of pamphlets detailing the tax cut proposal.
Getten sie real time, folks: Until the coalition 2PP numbers start to look like the ALP *primary*, they have no chance of winning.
Wake me up when you see a poll like that.
In regards to the debate, a Mexican stand-off situation would play to Howard’s advantage.
Howard can turn up to the Great Hall and field questions on national TV for 90 minutes, thereby allowing him free kicks against Rudd and Labor on ALL issues. At the same time, Rudd will look arrogant for not turning up and the Coalition will do everything in their power to ensure that the public do not forget it. It also presents Howard with a great photo opportunity – Rudd will be painted as the “Missing Opposition Leader”.
And what does Rudd get out of not turning up to the debate? Nothing
So my advice to Rudd is this – turn up to the debate well prepared and cream Howard during it – we all know the format and timing sucks and there should be 3 debates instead of 1, but it’s better to win 1 than win none…
Loved this from Rudd:
centaur_007 @ 197
That’s an Occupational Health and Safety representative not an officer. The roles are very different.
An OH&S officer for a union spends a lot of their time supporting OH&S representatives with their issues, negotiating with employers and representing members’ interests to WorkSafe.
Re Corio: Marles was raised and educated in Geelong. O’Connor comes from Colac and only stood in Corio after failing twice to win Corangamite. I’m not sure who that makes the interloper. Furthermore, Marles polled 57% of the local vote in the preselection ballot (unlike some other candidates, who only got up with the help of the central panel). And don’t tell me that was the result of branch-stacking – there was a certain amount on both sides, but not enough to produce that result. A sitting member who loses the support of her/her local branches can’t expect to survive. I agree that O’Connor has some local support, but he’s about to turn 60 and was deadwood in Canberra. Where was he during the AWB scandal, which was in his portfolio area? All he was good for was old-time protectionist slogans. It was time for him to go.
The debate will happen Sunday night on Howard’s terms. Rudd will be there.
This is ALWAYS how it happens. The debate works however the P.M. says it will work.
It is a joke that this can’t all be decided independently, but we put up with the same thing every election.
203
Derek Corbett Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
From my monitoring, the reaction to the tax-cut bribe has gone from tepid to smelly. It’s certainly on the nose today.
If the economic analysists give proper scrutiny, then it is most probable we will see more of this sort of comment.
{First is whether it’s smart for the Government to declare a plan to “go for growth” when the Reserve Bank is campaigning for a slowdown.
Chris Richardson, of Access Economics, told the Herald in August: “The Government is throwing money into the economy and the Reserve Bank is trying to take it out again. We have one foot on the accelerator and one on the brake. No wonder we’re blowing smoke.”
The Government’s announcement shows an economy that is continuing to accelerate. It will fuel this by adding a further $7 billion in tax cuts in the year from next July 1.
“Based on the Government’s own forecasts, the car is accelerating, and at the margin its tax cuts increase the probability that interest rates will increase in 2008 and beyond,” said ANZ Bank’s chief economist, Saul Eslake.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/triumph-wont-help-howards-war/2007/10/15/1192300686895.html
The electoral commission is helping out by removing 143,000 young voters from the rolls in the last six months.How democratic of them.They were “removed by objection”,well thats alright then.In the Telegraph today.
191 Yohoho – A brave prediction about interest rates not rising on Nov 7. If the Sept qtr inflation figure is a big one, say over .9, Stevens will act. With no more quarterly inflation figures due until late January, the RBA would look a bit political if they delayed a needed rise until December or January.
“If JWH is going to win it will be a sneak from behind win in the last 2 weeks -hence “The narrowing†will only start late in the piece.”
Yeah, Eddy, right again! El Rodente is a “Poll Sneak”, a spiffily attired Restroom Rodent who can kick and move off either front paw when close to goal.
“………and now we cross live-to-Fleminton where punters have just witnessed a paralysing finishing burst from an aged gelding, “Hyacinth’s Hope”, who’s just schlepped topweight down the home straight to win in a photo…….”
Eddy, you’re a worthy opponent. Glen tries really, really hard but he’s just a pup compared to you.
I was driving home early this afternoon from lawn bowls, have been out of the information loop all morning. Heard on the news that Howard & co. were trying to bully Rudd into releasing his tax policy on their schedule. Well I guess I can see where they are coming from, they want the momentum {they aren’t going to get it though
}. Words used on the radio news were something to the effect of “if they didn’t have it out by the end of the day …..” . My first thought was Rudd isn’t going to fall for this rubbish, he is dealing from a position of strength at the moment, but I was worried a bit. Then they came on with the “rest” of the story and I heard Rudd’s sound bite that said he “wasn’t going there”. Kevin Rudd, you beauty 
:):) …………
Misty
That’s very good.
Chance here to wedge Howard: “Howard Hates Worms.”
Would play well with certain religious communities.
Our pet rat used to love worms.
Didn’t mind an odd cockroach which got too close to its cage either, (it was a QLD rat). Probably what did him undone in the end though.
don’t worry, judy. costello just looks like a complete buffoon to a lot of voters when he says stuff like that. kev has been pretty careful and tight so far, i can’t see him blowing it now on some half-a%$ed tax policy thrown together in a panic.
219
L.Duce
Got a link for us?
Would the broadcasters go ahead if Rudd refused to participate – an hour and a half of the PM would hardly be a ratings winner.
Rudd holding out would help him shift the me-too image. courage when taking tought decisions.
Adam: Marles may have been raised in Geelong, but the very strong vibe going around town is that of the candidate forced onto people. The preselection vote was stacked to hell (and widely reported as such – another reason why Marles is unpopular), and thus I don’t think reports that he won a “majority of the local vote” counts for very much.
As I said above, O’Connor is a well-liked local member, and Marles is about as popular as the proverbial turd-on-shoe. Marles’ll still most likely win, due to having access to Labor Party resources and organisation, but expect O’Connor to poll quite reasonably if he runs.
Costello demanding that Labor reply with their own tax policy by COB today is just hilarious. Does Costello think that Rudd is going to do “the $600 child allowance is not real” a la Latham? The Libs chose to have a long campaign – therefore Labor is free to release its policies at a time which suits Labor.
Yes, that is the same reaction I’m seeing as well.
While the MSM and lib hacks are drooling over it and boosting their chances seems to me the public just yawned and is over it already. Certainly not the “wow” reaction anticipated and if it does play out that way in the next polls it’s game over.
This seems to agree with many of the comments on this thread.
{Macquarie Bank’s Rory Robertson agrees: “The tax cuts will boost demand, and that boosts inflation.” The foot on the accelerator presses down, challenging the Reserve Bank to press down even harder on the brake.}
And this seems to be a well thoughout evatuation of its effects.
{The second strategic question looming over the Government’s policy is whether, having taken the economic risk, it will reap the political reward? A Liberal strategist privately posed the party’s secret fear: “Why would these cuts have a bigger political effect than the tax cuts in the May budget?”
The $36 billion in cuts in May produced no discernable improvement in the Coalition’s deathly poll figures.
As the Government delivered five consecutive years of tax cuts, the political benefit has seemed to become successively smaller.
If a $36 billion four-year program of tax cuts yielded zero effect, why would a $34 billion three-year program do better?}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/triumph-wont-help-howards-war/2007/10/15/1192300686895.html
Do not knowthe link method,it is a Steve Lewis story in the daily telegraph, breaking news.
190@Amber
I know it was a bit silly of me with the previous posting, but women of Julia’s age (45) start worry about what to do with their hair. Men it is simple “shave it off”. Mike Bressendon wrote an article somewhere about John Howard could not be Prime Minister until he worked out his hair. I think once she became happy with her hair she has grown into the position. Peter @ mumble often goes on about not letting her talk but I think she has now become an asset for the labor party.
L.Duce @219
Who objected? What this mean?
Il Duce, just cut and paste the URL, it will hyperlink automatically.
Doesn’t the cold, factual reporting of the Terror just make you smile?
“JOHN Howard and Peter Costello’s $34billion tax cuts bonanza has today polarised voters: the Daily Telegraph Online polls reveal voters are still paranoid about Workchoices even if they’re getting extra bucks in their wallets.”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22594841-5001021,00.html
Scorpio
Vale Rat.
Again I’ve caught on late, but this is pretty funny. The History of the Liberal Party, featuring John Hewson: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwNxivx-56A
Derek@234
I don`t Know but i suspect it is lessons learned from the Rethuglian Party they are expert in targeted voter rolls cleansing.
236 Yo ho ho Says: October 16th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Yes… us plebs should recognize that is the conservatives job to terrorize the electorate with fears of boogeymen union officials, and black people, rather than the immature fears of keeping your job because of workchoices.
Thanks L.Duce
I wonder how long this will last before it turns around again?
{NEARLY three-quarters of the money bet on the election since Sunday has been for the coalition, bucking the trend of recent months when the majority of money consistently flowed to Labor, Sportingbet Australia has said.
The Coalition’s election odds for a fifth term of Government have narrowed to $2.75 from $2.90 since Prime Minister John Howard announced the November 24 election date on Sunday.
Labor’s odds have widened to $1.45 from $1.40.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had also reacted favourably to yesterday’s tax cut announcement.
The Government announced $34 billion of proposed tax cuts yesterday when it released its midyear Budget review.
“We have definitely seen a shift towards the Government in the past 24 hours with 73 per cent of all bets going to the Coalition,” Mr Sullivan said. }
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22595214-5001028,00.html
The link to the story L.Duce reported is:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22584626-5001021,00.html
Pancho, that is pretty funny. At least Hewson can laugh at himself, don’t think Howard has that capacity. Did you see the ‘credits’ at the end? Ha ha ha.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22584720-5012863,00.html
Try this for voter cleansing story.
Thanks Andos.
I don’t think the tax cuts offered by the Libs are much of a big deal at all. They are big, but so what. Australians have been used to getting tax cuts every year for the last 5 or so years, so it’s kind of expected now. And $30 a week in a couple of years isn’t such a big deal for most people.
I’m not saying it’s completely lost on people, but I just don’t think you get much “bang for your buck” these days when you give away tax cuts. People are like, “yeah thanks”.
In addition, it doesn’t have much staying power in the news. What can you say about them once you’ve said what the new scales would be? They don’t really generate much interesting debate… certainly not enough to last more than a day or two.
Spend just a third of the 34 billion on health or education and you will get huge media coverage and win a lot more kudos I think.
I think that it is probably even worse than this on-line poll suggests as I believe the Telegraph has significantly more of a Liberal supporter readership.
I don’t think that’s true – Artie Fadden for one. Also Fisher, although that was in Scotland and only primary school.
Update on the finances of the US election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7046295.stm
What i personally loved the most about the story was the use of ‘paranoia’ when referring to workchoices and the Howard-esque ‘you’ve never had it so good/even if they’re getting extra bucks in their wallets’.
Champagne comedy really.
Ashley @ 246: Not only that, the debate about these tax cuts is now turning to their effect on inflation and interest rates; a bad thing for the Coalition and their ‘miraculous’ economic credentials.
Please people, tax cuts are never frowned on. If you think that you’re seriously out of touch. The best you can hope for is that people think their vote is being bought, however if Labor can’t offer a better deal and offer little of difference in other policy areas… then why not just take the money and run?
No more trying to convince each other that tax cuts are a politically bad move.
Anyone of you crazy cats think the Labor tax policy wont be out before Sunday?
LTEP — My point wasn’t that the tax cuts would be frowned upon. It’s that you don’t get much bang for your buck in terms of gratitude from the election. 34 billion is a massive amount of money, and I don’t think the libs have got value for money, electorally-speaking.
Scullin and McEwen for two more.
I’m not sure about Hawke’s primary school but his secondary school education was certainly pubic albeit selective.
#253 Yep, am damn sure they won’t release it for weeks yet. Bloody good too because it just puts more pressure on Custard and Howard who obviously can’t handle it.
#252 People DO know when their being bought and will also know Labor will offer them something as well.
Love this add;
I think it will be. The Libs have given Labor $34 billion to do what they want with.
Rudd can debate the leaders of the other parties – Greens, FF etc. May not attract much audience, but it will make Howard appear totally irrevelant to politics in Australia. It will show Rudd as willing to debate all comers and Howard as a cowering fool.
adl 2:38 pm
Not sure how to take your post; maybe you thought I was having a go at you? I was sincere. I thought your post cut through the BS nicely. I read your hair comment as sarcasm directed at journos who take hair seriously in their scribblings.
ESJ — I think they’ll want it out before the end of the second week of campaigning. Plus they’ll want to get all the headlines in the weekend papers. So I’m guessing either this weekend or the weekend after.
The ALP tax policy will have been just about finalise prior to the election campaign – what will be happening now is fine tuning in the light of the changed economic forecasts.
Probably will be issued late this week – I am guessing it might include some form of Earned Income Tax credits to deal with the high effective marginal tax rates for people moving between income support and work. It has proved effective in the US and would be another point of difference
{Anyone of you crazy cats}
They’re not here. All out hunting “rodents”.
Forget about tax, breaking news from Western Australia….
A high (the highest) profile WA footballer has allegedly been stopped, searched and is assisting police.
Just Me
Ta. Bloody hell!
This has nothing to do with the price of fish, but note the intro says: “… the LAST six months.”
In the body of the text, Steve Lewis says: “… the PAST six months.”
His intro was rewritten by a sub. I’d like to see the original. PAST is correct. Wot, the LAST six months … EVER! He is referring to the six months that have just passed.
I can’t understand why the media keep claiming that middle income earners are the big winners under Team Smirks tax cuts where clearly the further up the tax scale you go, the top end receives the most?
Oh now I know? If they said that the top end gets the highest tax cuts then the middle would not vote for it, and so the top couldn’t get it. OK.
While your their EdStJo, I have another question that, with this one I can’t work out for myself.
Q. Will wages increase or decrease under work2choices? No really, I’m all ears.
ESJ at #101. I shall be departing Australia for Spain no matter who wins the election. ETD is 7.12.07, hence my eagerness for the election to be called no later than 1.12.07.
I hope to return to a Howardless republic in the years ahead.
What will the the tax cuts be worth after bracket creep?
Can I supersize my burger and shake?
Centre,
In real terms (ie after inflation) under WorkChoices or WorkChoices Lite wages will:
Increase for people with bargaining power
Stay the same for most without bargaining power
Decrease for some without bargaining power (not sure about the degree as this was happening in any event under the pre workchoices laws)
They think whoever gets a bigger percentage tax cut is the bigger winner.
They don’t realise that people live on dollars, not percentages.
It’s interesting how we tend to get more accurate headlines about our election from foreign newspapers.
Just googled ‘john howard’ in their news section.
Headline no.1: “Desperate Howard Pledges Tax Cuts” The Telegraph (UK)
Headline no. 3: “Howard Waving Goodbye to Office, Poll suggest” The NZ Herald (which is owned by Fairfax).
Why do foreigners get accurate reports/commentary on Aust. news and we don’t?
For an historian you sure are a terrible economist ESJ
God, I can’t believe The Oz actually published this (an analysis of their Coredata Online poll):
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22595366-5013871,00.html
Mr Rocket,
Are you planning on leaving for OS too?
I feel I was just getting to know you …
HEY! They know polls because the OWN polls! You can’t handle the TRUTH about how my they KNOW about polls via their OWNERSHIP of them.
Nop EdStJo, can’t buy it.
A small percentage of the work force have always had bargaining power. That leaves the rest – all worse off. The further in time, the further worse off they will be. Imagine when we fall into recession. A vote for Howard is a vote for the Americanisation of Australia.
Btw, I’ve got to say I love this (Labor) ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYxnlHmLzOw
Why didn’t they think of this in 2004?
Has anyone seen this video of Hawke giving Howard a serve at the launch of Bailey’s campaign in North Sydney.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22459632-5013871,00.html
Yes, yes, yes, couldn’t agree more. I moved to Australia FROM America in 2004 to get to a better place. If I wanted America, I wouldn’t bloody have left it. Counting down the days to Howard’s execution
276 Swing Lowe Says: October 16th, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Great ad
J R (270) The headline you quote makes an interesting contrast with the (obviously selective) GG “Cut & Paste” which calls Howard sincere and courageous. WTF?
Stop Press! Shanahan writes an objective article: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22592473-17301,00.html
The GG are off with the pixies, the coredata has Labor winning Kennedy.
I suppose they have to justify the mony the spent.
But is a good way to find seats:
http://www.coredata.com.au/theaustralianmap.php
{They don’t realise that people live on dollars, not percentages.}
Yeah, it’s funny how a loaf of bread costs the same if you are on $16k a year or on $160k per year.
This is the bit that the Lib Govt don’t seem to get. (let them eat cake instead).
It cost the French highbrows dearly, and will hopefully cost our version dearly at the ballot box too.
Ozymandia, I think the Cut & Paste is from the Editorial page of the Daily Torygraph, whilst J R’s link is from a “standard” news article.
Having just returned from the UK, I found that The Daily Telegraph pretty much fawns over Howard – I guess they wish they had an equivalent of him in the UK – and seems to take a greater than average interest in Aussie politics.
Mr. Rudd will win. It’s funny how the media likes this ‘who wins day 1/week1/etc/etc’. It’s all fun but meaningless. An election isn’t a cricket series… if you win the majority of sessions – you’ll win the day – you win the majority of days – you’ll win the match etc.
I remember 1996… and I felt at the time (as a partisan admittedly) that Mr. Keating won the campaign.
Didn’t make a scrap of difference. In 1996 I had this dim, heart felt hope that somehow or another it’d be alright and Mr. Keating would win. Didn’t work out that way.
Now, I have this dim, dark fear that somehow or another, everything will go all wrong and Mr. Howard will win. Mr. Howard won’t win.
The only question is how big the loss and how long, if ever, will it take the Liberal Party to recover?l
Thanks, SL (284). I am not familiar with the UK tory press.
And thanks Ben Cousins. Good of you to keep Howard out of the headlines for a few days -at least here in WA.
That ad’s fantastic.
The ALP has found its cojones again under Rudd. I used to cringe at Beazer’s meek acquiescence to Howard’s take on the national political agenda.
Rudd just sets him himself.
Just received a letter from Jason Wood (Lib) La Trobe and according to him the most important matters facing our nation are, in his priority
1- Duplicate a road in our area
2- Crack down on hoons and vandals
3- Invest in additional health services
4 – Improve local school facilities.
#285
Assuming the Coalition lose, which must be the more likely scenario,the future of the Libs depends very much who’s left standing in the Liberal ranks.
Bearing in mind one-term Governments are rare in Australia, we really need to consider a two-term prospect. The next leader should have good name recognition, but if they try and change leader a second time, say after losing a second election, the right wing may exert undue control over the process and decent leaders with half a chance can be brought down (Brogden anyone?).
The biggest danger to the Liberals is not a loss per se, but a loss that rebalances the party room too far from electability.
Red Wombat,
I thought the State election was last year.
Red Wombat, is he running a state issues campaign and rejecting what Howard and Costello think are important or just a different Liberal faction member?
ive recieved an absentee vote form today with a reply envelope addressed to the liberal party– complete with the government logo, their dreaming, i’m toddling along to my local booth, i wouldnt miss lining up to help vote the dear leader out for worlds.
Ross Vasta was interviewed by Madonna King on ABC radio this morning, he was also campaigning on local issues. Law and Order, Water ect. King pulled him up and said “those are state not federal issues- he said these are the issues my electorate wants to discuss”.
Maybe he is hoping to get a local council job.
Howard in trouble today near Canberra with his campaigning ….. its all about work choices, work choices, work choies
(cut and paste from Reuters news feed via a South African web news site)
“Meanwhile, Howard spent day two on the hustlings visiting a timber windows factory near Canberra to promote his tax cuts promised over four years, announced on Monday as the first big election pledge.
But factory workers were divided on whether they would vote for Howard, citing concerns over rising interest rates and the government’s new labour laws, which weaken workplace unions.
“There is support in the office, but out the back here not so much,” carpenter Aaron Steele, 23, told Reuters.”
1- Duplicate a road in our area
2- Crack down on hoons and vandals
3- Invest in additional health services
4 – Improve local school facilities.
They are just getting in a bit of practice for when they run in the next State or Local Government elections after getting tipped out in 6 weeks time.
Don’t mention Howard, the Liberal Party or workchoices and pray like hell!
Update on Parramatta:
My local corner store is run by members of the Indian community here and I have, I hope, become a trusted face. They asked my opinion on the election. They were interested in the election, but lacked understanding of the issues involved. I was on the spot: I can’t say simply that Howard is a fibbing little rat … or a blot on the political landscape … or what about Siev … no.
So, I told them about P. Hanson and John Howard.
It was low-key stuff, no ranting. At the end, I think they decided.
Now, with word of mouth kicking in, Parramatta is safe for Labor. One has to do one’s bit.
It had the usual rant about “70% former union members” blah blah etc. I have noticed that his signage about the place doesn’t have any Liberal logo’s.
Great idea – using coalition advertisements to piggy back Labor messages. Given enough airtime, viewers seeing the original attack ad will start to recall the Rudd messages, in the same way as the government’s workchoices ads would remind viewers of the ACTU message. It is very attention-getting: the Liberals will be paying to rehearse Labor themes…”The Liberals are negative, we have positive plans….”
I think this is the kind of thing you can do when you have issues on your side: it is a way of maximising the front-runner advantage…just great.
blindoptimist, does the ALP have negative advertising of their own? I don’t watch tv so I wouldn’t know.
Blindoptimist: Absolutely. I love it when I hear JWH say things like “Education Revolution” in interviews. All that happens is people get reminded of Labor’s policies, and his lack-of-…
I almost sent through an ‘Andos, shhh’ message…Rudd’s discipline is infecting me…
see the following link for an interesting story on Forrest Marino in trouble
Basically nola marino, the liberal candidate in forrest, is in some serious strife from her own party.
Ah, you’re right Pancho. I certainly don’t want to help out the Liberal Party strategists. But then again, if they’re reading pollyblogs for PR strategies then they’re beyond help.
Local internet media (The Geographe Gazette) in the South West have picked up an interesting story concerning the Liberal candidate Nola Marino.
Craig Carbone, the 2005 Liberal candidate for Collie-Wellington (state seat) has told her that she is within inches of being dropped.
Also told her to door knock in the stronger Labor areas such as Withers and Collie and not just Liberal areas.
Also she was told to spend some of her money and not just rely on party money.
Forrest is turning out to be very interesting and may be a real surprise on election night.
Yes Hossen27, Nola isn’t too popular. I know my parents certainly won’t be voting for her, although they say that she has been showering them with letters.
SwingLowe @213:
Howard doesn’t want the debate on national TV. He wants it on the Sky channel, which will apparently get an audience of about 30,000 people. Howard afraid to face the people?
Peter Hartcher seems about the only one in the MSM to grasp that the Libs “brilliant” tax move coming this soon is actually likely to prove very poor strategy – probably motivated by a desire to keep their own side together at all, as opined by the Possum (all hail our noble Possum).
Any game theory specialists in the group care to comment on committing yourself to a big first move in this sort of game?
Or for those like me with an interest in military strategy (come on Glen, how about it), is anyone reminded of the disastrous Anglo-French moves of their forces north-west in 1914 and 1940, which far from seizing the initiative handed it over to the other side in a big way?
Costello as Colonel Grandmaison – without the personal courage of course …
I notice that the barely contained euphoria of a certain Labor victory has diminished a bit in the last day or so. Are many of you lefties peanuts reconsidering your views?
“NEARLY three-quarters of the money bet on the election since Sunday has been for the coalition, bucking the trend of recent months when the majority of money consistently flowed to Labor, Sportingbet Australia has said.”
This is the start of the narrowing…..
I think Rudd should stick to his demand (at least) 3 debates in the final weeks of the campaign.
It’s Howard on the back-foot here. He’s so desperate to pull down Rudd’s
poll that he has to agree to Rudd’s terms/offer.
Otherwise, as predicted, Rudd will continue to match on to the election winning.
Hey, Me Too, isnt it about time you showed us some KRuddie policies?
Because our media is biased John.
blindoptimist 298:
It seems that given enough thought the ALP has been able to develop techniques to neutralize, and even turn to their advantage, the negative campaigning tactics which proved so successful in previous elections here and in the US. I wonder if a similar approach by Kerry in the previous US election would have been able to neutralize the ‘Swift Boat Veterans for Truth’ series of smears.
It all goes to show just how prepared the ALP is for this campaign. They are light-years ahead of the Coalition in the techniques they are employing. I expect the ALP strategists would have been delighted to see that the Coalition’s sophistication had not progressed since the previous election, to the point where they are wheeling out the exact same ‘L plate’ smear advertisements.
Forget any election news in WA tonight.
Some breaking news (albeit on a micro scale): I’ve converted my neighbour, a life-long Liberal. She can’t stand Howard and as for Ruddock… well, she doesn’t usually swear, but today she did.
We both looked up her daughter’s enrolment on the AEC web site and found she’d been purged from the rolls (as she lives overseas). Went to great lengths to get her all the links for the AEC web site and emailed them to her. Just heard back that she’s filled out the form and sent the application from (of all places) Buenos Aires. She wants Howard out and thanked us for the effort.
That’s a big TWO Labor votes all in one day!
On other matters…
The prospect of Howard behind that lectern of his standing up in the Great Hall shouting at the wall is a wonderful thing. Please don’t go Kevin07. Just let the little fella stew in his own ponderous juices. It will be a pathetic performance, I promise youse.
Lastly, that Hawke clip was a doozy. Abdolutely brilliant and such a breath of fresh air in the otherwise stultifying and stodgy atmosphere of this “don’t put a foot wrong” election (although Kevin07 giving Howard’s L-Plate ad the flick was pretty good, in a controlled sort of way).
A great start to the campaign all ’round. The Coalition tax scam will be forgotten in a few days but what will be remembered is Rudd as the responsible candidate in not falling for Howard’s double-or-nothing, ambush approach to policy.
Feeling gee’d up I is.
I agree Rudd should continue to press for multiple debates even if he doesn’t get them — Howard still has to defend his own position of them.
Good to see some testicles from Labor in the tv ads (eg. the ad within the ad). I thought 2004 was spineless from Labor and a significant factor in their defeat.
Rudd the chess player has most of the moves covered and Howard will be hoping for inspiration because perspiration is getting him nowhere slowly.
Derek @296, your very restrained mate, ive been happily brainwashing everyone i come in contact with lol, i even tried it on with the camera men when we were taping a crime investigation show here, ive convinced my computor tech guy and ive got my pals now asking me every few days how the polls are going and do i still think we’ll get in, i think their more anxious than i am now to see the back of the dear leader, we all have to do our bit.
If what red wombat 288 and ruawake 293 are both true then it is a decisive time in this campaign. If the candidates for the Liberals can’t sell the message from the campaign leadership or the voters don’t want to talk Federal issues with them then these candidates are in bigger trouble than we thought possible.
Sid Marris and his poll which was posted earlier might be picking up on this display of disunity from a fractured party. I initially discounted it as very enthusiastic but he might just be onto something in light of 288 and 293.
Bill, that’s two less needed! Well done.
The Narrowing sounds like a Stephen King story. Just might turn out to be one.
Go Bill.
Oh Jimbo. Keep clutching. And I reckon you should get some money on before those odds shorten even further!
My troll detector is buzzing and pointing in Jim’s general direction.
Jim @ 4.43pm. Mate have you been living in a cave or something?
A little something for your enjoyment from youtube. To an old FleetwoodMac tune:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aEewsPhoLI&mode=related&search=
LOL. Trolls live under bridges, not in caves.
Rudd played the perception game well today, the housing affordability stuff will go down well. (I am not saying he actually did anything – just the perception he understands).
Ms Marino obviously needs to find a few cracks in the footpath or something.
Or find a hoon to lock up. Hey, there’s one on the Westralian website, with a great ugly tatt across his belly..
# 308 – Hey Jim…all I’m seeing on this site is more intelligent and considered analysis…just like always. Okay, so most of us are hoping to see The Rodent take a one way journey up his own backside on Nov 24th…but there’s a lotta smarts here. Perhaps Piers would be more your speed?
# 307 – Hey Marrickville…why’d you steal those watches, man?
Having painfully watched Agenda on Sky today, I have come to the conclusion that Janet Albrechtsen, far from being a right wing hack, is a complete and utter idiot.
There she was going on about how we should look at Centrebet rather than the polls as an indication of the election. So I did. And what did I see?
Labor $1.47/ Coalition $2.70
Yes – even on Janet’s famed election predictor, the Coalition is getting thumped.
Which brings me back to my initial point – Janet Albrechtsen is a complete and utter idiot.
Thank you for your patience during this rant.
Josh #325
She has bee solely running on local issues and has been attacked for it. Mark my words watch Forrest.
Speaking of debates,
I believe the last two weeks of the campaign would be appropriate after all policy is revealed.
Watch for the trump card played by Rudd in a month, it is a pearler.
Janet Albrechtsen was having a bad hair day.
That Hawke video that Let It End posted is a classic.
For those who missed it:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22459632-5013871,00.html
Albrechtsen will suffer severe relevance deprivation syndrome when the rodent loses.
Centre @ 321: ‘KRuddie’ was a give away. Also the time: 4.43pm. Our excitable Young Liberal had just arrived home from Kings (or equivalent) and thought he’d pop one out for Team H before texting his bros at the Brethren HQ.
… with the greatest of respect, James.
frank, I’m surprised that Howard is being so obstinate about the debates. I know that he is terrified of them and Rudd would be the favourite in such a forum, but he needs them for the same reason that opposition leaders usually do: he’s well behind.
I think it’s just Howard’s tendencies to megalomania that would see him cut off his nose to spite his face. He’d rather be in a corner stamping his feet and claiming that he sets the rules rather than be seen to have Rudd dictating terms. And I get the feeling that Rudd is in a win-win here. He has the profile and the lead, and I’m not sure it really matters if he gets debates or not. If he does, it’s likely he’ll come out of them looking good, and if he doesn’t, he can hammer Howard for looking scared.
Swing I imagine Janet has read that the money has been flowing the Libs way on Centrebet and the odds are narrowing – therefore the infallible bookies are correctly picking the swing back to Howard.
But hey, she’s still a complete and utter idiot.
They all get together for lunch, you know. Henderson, Devine, Albrechtson… compare notes and discuss tactics. The cheersquad rehearsing their moves…
Bob Hawke doing an impression of Howard. Love it!
To our resident troll, Jim,
As a self-confessed Labor supporter, I admit I have been wrong about certain things – it’s something that comes with the territory. However, I make a point of admitting when I have been wrong and I intend to do so again.
So, here is my confession:
I was wrong when I asserted that David Speers was not a right wing hack.
I was wrong when I asserted that he would be an appropriate moderator of the debate this Sunday.
And finally, I was wrong when I asserted that Sky would give Labor and Rudd a fair shake this election campaign.
So ends my confession (so far).
279 Pi Thats a good ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYxnlHmLzOw
But I’m still waiting for the very important Nuclear Power Plant ads.
312
Yoyoma Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
blindoptimist 298:
It seems that given enough thought the ALP has been able to develop techniques to neutralize, and even turn to their advantage, the negative campaigning tactics which proved so successful in previous elections..
..
Hi Yoyoma! Yes, the media tactics used by Rudd and his crew are very very good. If the past year is anything to go by, the Liberals are going to be out-campaigned in the next 6 weeks too…. a very comforting thought.
David Speers is just another Glen and ESJ with his monkey recitations of the CT “killer phrases” . I agree with others here that Rudd doesn’t need the debate so should just tell Howard to debate himself, even then Howard would still lose the debate anyway.
There’s no reason to a debate only on Sky TV!!!! Particularly not this early in the campaign.
Rudd should put out the story that he’s happy to debate Costello on Sky …. sometime on Friday.
So…it seems The Rodent is planning to show up at the Great Hall of Parliament House on Sunday and speak for an hour-and-a-half to two hundred Coalition supporters…all broadcast on Sky News.
Gee whizz, I can see people switching over from Kath & Kim in droves.
297 red wombat Exclusive Brethren pay for ads, and thy don’t have the Liberal Logo. Although they said on 4 Corners that they weren’t involved in this election. BS if you ask me.
How about Howard vs The Drover’s Dog (trained to exhibit minimal hubris)?
(Howard vs Rudd would be a barking contest anyway …)
howard in a one handed debate..
suerly they even screen that type of thing on Pay TV?
Can They?
Hawkie’s still got it…tracksuits, Damascus and an ample arse. Funny stuff.
Red Wombat
That is inspiring stuff for La Trobe!!! What vision! Is he running for council, the local school book group, or Federal Paliament?
on the debate..
Yes, Rudd should hold out for 3. He will out-manouvre Howard. In any case, the campaign should be about more than ads and set-piece media moments. 3 debates – social policy, economic policy, foreign affairs and security policy – on the big issues.
Good news and bad news for Howard supporters.
First the good news; it is true that the coalition has firmed slightly since the announcement of the election. On, the most accurate indicator of all IMO, Betfair: LAB 1.48 – 1.53. LIB 1.96 – 1.82.
Now the bad news; the market fears the incumbant. In 1996 Keating was heavily backed in the campaign.
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2007/10/16/2358_ntnews.html
Funny things happening in Darwin. He says he’s an independent. Labor says he’s a Liberal front, and that he’s currently a Young Liberal office-bearer.
342
Snakeboy Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
So…it seems The Rodent is planning to show up at the Great Hall of Parliament House on Sunday and speak for an hour-and-a-half to two hundred Coalition supporters…all broadcast on Sky News…
……
Unbelievable! Talk about preaching to the choir….are they going to pay sky news ? or is this a freebie?
Pancho, you have me confused
thank you for your reply.
Howard acts like he has the upper hand, while indeed,
he enters the campaign as an under-dog.
Maybe we could get the cabinet and shadow cabinet all together so that they can all have a debate en masse.
Crispy @ 113
My apologies – I logged off after posting my last comment.
“If he offers the same amount of cuts, then the ‘me too’ cries will once again pop up – it’s a line that’s starting to bite.â€
What is your evidence for this, other than wishful thinking? The ‘me-tooism’ angle has been running for months, to no effect so far.
I assume you mean “evidence the ‘me too-ism’ is starting to bite?” None that I can call concrete. I shall instead present an example. Last night I opened up a conversation with a chap whom I haven’t talked to in quite a long time (months). I mentioned in the course of conversation that posters of Rudd everywhere was starting to bug me. The conversation ensured, and the very first thing he asked me when I noted my dislike for Mr Rudd is “ah – the me too-ism is annoying you?”
I did not bring it up at all. Apparently he will vote labor, and that was the first thing that came to his mind.
‘Wishful thinking’ perhaps, but by the end of the campaign this line will likely have been plastered about a few thousand times by the parties. Commentators have been using it a lot as well. Of course, this will not necessarily translate into votes, but that was not my argument.
pi @ 130
And here’s me thinking the last poll had the ALP on a 12 point margin.
You know… just saying something doesn’t make it true. Or haven’t you figured that out?
Please give me a break – I am not blinded by ignorance. I know the polls are terrible. I know Labor will likely win. I also see the advantages of a change in government, and in many aspects think it will be a good thing, especially in regard to health care – for once, governments will struggle to pass the blame. Results might ensure, who knows? Regardless, when weighing it up, I still fancy the libs. I also know that it is much, much better to have a productive campaign rather then have a party lie on the floor dormant.
Sean @ 133
The problem with Max’s view re Rudd is that he’s implicitly suggesting that Howard is the sort of guy that the punters would like to hang out with. I suspect Max might be the sort of guy who stands in the corner at parties
Grow up. That was pathetic beyond belief.
Alex @ 141
Max – 110 You obviously don’t keep up with economic debate in Australia. The proposed tax cuts (repeat ‘proposed’) are just what most economic commentators have been suggesting for years! So there is nothing innovative about the Libs announcement, just a desperate attempt to get in the game.
No kidding. And you know what? Those exact same people are also cautioning against overloading the economy and having interest rates shoot up. I did economics 101 as well.
I would also like to point out that there will rarely be a truly ‘innovative’ announcement these days – politicians rarely introduce brand new ideas. Everything is stolen or adapdted from something else. Which is bound to happen after a few thousands years of humanity.
**
I think that was all of them.
Sheesh.
That ALP ad is so effective, the coalition might even need to withdraw the L-plate nonsense.
Punters will just start seeing that hand move across screen with the remote control – since let’s face it – party ads are irritating. Everyone wants to switch them off, deep down.
And who’s switching it off? The Kruddster.
it’s brilliant.
{he can hammer Howard for looking scared.}
That won’t be too hard to do. Howard “IS” scared and will probably have to wear one of those special nappies for the rest of the campaign.
Also, if Betfair is showing the Liberals paying 1.82 at the same time as the bookies have 2.70, the bookies are REALLY trying to draw money to the Libs in a way that does not follow the market driven arguments like it sounds the Orange Lady is trying to mount. The aim of floating such wide odds is to get money coming in the the less favoured, and it is no surpirse that this is happening now, and no doubt will happen further.
My question is, who are these fools backing the Libs at 1.82 on Betfair when you can get 2.70 with the click of a mouse? Not Jim, for one.
Um – Pancho, I think you’ve misquoted the odds. Betfair currently has the Libs at 2.84, with Labor at 1.53.
PM debating himself?
Interesting, I wonder who would win, Dr Jeckle or Mr Hyde?
That makes more sense I guess. I was following post #349’s odds quote.
ruawake Says: @ 353
{so that they can all have a debate en masse.}
A mass debate, I’d like to see that.
Naughty reawake!
“PM debating himself?
Interesting, I wonder who would win, Dr Jeckle or Mr Hyde?”
AM, you’re leaving a Labor flank open there…
{PM debating himself?}
He could always join in the “mass debate”!
Pancho, sorry I made a typo. LIB 2.96 – 2.82. The prices total almost 100% the highest available in the marketplace.
AM #359
What would you call it if our master debated himself????
315 Amber Dekstris Couldn’t agree more with you on the spineless Labor Party ads in 2004. I have seen some great ads with testicles already. But they are still hiding them. I will be most angry if they do not run them later. Specifically the Nuclear Power ads.
Coalition still $3.05 at Portlandbet. Has been these odds for at least 4 days.
The current “real” value of a runner is with the highest odds available – not any one quote or any average.
This is not to say that the Coalition hasn’t been backed recently – it certainly has – but not with enormous amounts.
Bookies are constantly reassessing the marketplace, using judgment and expectation, as much as bets, to formulate latest odds.
350 Adam
You can find out plenty about Mr Chester over at Club Troppo, where he is a major contributor, and the webmaster.
http://clubtroppo.com.au/
http://clubtroppo.com.au/author/jacques-chester/
Beautiful, scaper 365. He’d probably find himself a handful.
cheers,
Alan H
Scaper.
He would be screwed by himself.
Chris B
The Nuclear power ads are running in Qld.
354 Hello Max, yes you’re the go-to guy on the Tory side today so everyone jumped on your head with glee.
The ‘me-too’ terminology is really just a Lib spin on ‘not being wedged on issues that aren’t vital’, and so far Rudd’s use of the device has been deft in starving the government of ammunition. (Witness the ridiculous capital punishment ‘gaffe’ – give the government a bullet and they try to turn it into a howitzer.)
We’ll see a lot less ‘me-too’ from here on and a lot more of Kevin holding up one hand and ticking off those fingers – WorkChoices, Environment, Education, Health, Infrastructure – where the differences are quite clear. We’ll all be sick of that after six weeks, for sure.
scaper… Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 5:50 pm
AM #359
What would you call it if our master debated himself????
Would it be Masterbate?????
“Talkback radio callers say no to tax cuts”
http://blogs.theage.com.au/mediamatters/archives/2007/10/talkback_radio.html
“Media Monitors analysis showed calls on what The Age presented as a “bold initiative” that left Opposition leader Kevin Rudd “flat-footed” (The Australian) ran almost four to one against the government.”
Yes bryce but it is difficult to keep track of each bookie.
I suspect that Portland are holding a clear liability on Labor and are trying to balance their books to a reasonable extent.
I wonder if media monitors have someone reading blogs?
Hi Johnny Croll – told you it was a good idea to set up computer monitoring 15 years ago.
Was it Vince Gair, the last DLP leader, famously addressing an empty street? Historic footage. Reminds me of Howard.
Re Jacques Chester: I think there should be a law against people under 25 joining political parties or standing for office. I’m not sure whether Young Lib sleazes or Young Labor fanatics are worse, but they are all awful in their different ways.
Crispy 5.57
Who reckons Rudd picked five major policy areas because he doesn’t have six fingers?
Absolutely agree Adam, there’s often something twisted about them.
If they are going to debate tax cuts and the economy then that would be a kind of maths debate wouldn’t it?
Let’s see Hockey – or the rodent or Costello or Minchin – debate Julia Gillard on WorkChoices. Someone from the Liberals has to stand up for their flagship policy. After spending tens of millions of public money this year promoting it, they would look silly and spineless if they are not prepared to defend it as a Party.
Exclusive Brethren on Current Affair.
‘God, I can’t believe The Oz actually published this (an analysis of their Coredata Online poll):
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22595366-5013871,00.html‘
These online surveys still aren’t worth the paper they aren’t written on. Is Graham Young, the ex-Lib of Brisbane behind this one?
At best online surveys might become a way of creating virtual focus groups. But for one off surveys they are a skewed and hence meaningless sample, even when they aren’t riggable at the click of a button.
Some countries ban publishing genuine (statistically valid) opinion polls in the lead up to elections. At a minimum, Parlt should use the broadcasting power to ban faux online polls on political/electoral issues, and those money-grubbing t.v. variants. All they do is waste the time and (typically workday resources) of the party hacks and partisans who try to rig them in the faint hope of misleading gullible folk for a few nano-seconds.
There’s a pretty cool new 7:30 report opening sequence. It has shots of parliament instead of the old ’squares’ of faces and such
Yes Chris B, ACA is doing the Exclusive Brethren thing after their report on the Ben Cousins arrest – shall we call them the West Coke Eagles?
LOL
Graeme, I think you’d find that they’d run into problems regarding freedom of political communication should they try to ban polls from being run and published during an election campaign.
William, please bear with me for a moment’s pedantry amongst this sea of psephological seriousness. It’s the “D-day” thing, which actually went down on June 6, 1944. Beach-storming your analogy, who are the goodies and who are the baddies here? Is Kevvy, Ike; El Rodente, Rommel? Generally speaking your impartiality is beyond reproach. Those familiar with the waging of WW2, like Eddy who’s already outted himself as a Historian, might suspect you are suggesting that Team Rodent are facsimiles of the Nazi defenders on D-day itself, since this is the outfit who were holding the fort, so to speak.
Perhaps your usage when viewed in the fullness of History is an accidental slight too far.
On an E for Election basis, would you buy “E-day minus 39″?
“Crikey.com.au understands that John Howard’s Environment Minister, Malcolm Turnbull says signing Kyoto would be “worth three per cent†for the Coalition vote, writes Christian Kerr.”
Who agrees with this claim? I think signing Kyoto makes claims about client change policy somewhat more credible, but could it really shift 3% of the vote? I think it would be more like 0.5 – 1%, it simply helps show that Labor is interesting in finding international solutions (i.e. the only solutions that will work).
Crikey is telling Rudd he should tell the PM where to stick Sunday’s debate and I certainly hope that he does …..
“Mr Rudd should call Mr Howard’s bluff and keep saying that it is to be a series of debates or nothing and that they should be held on the last three Sunday nights of the campaign.”
Oh dear what has Cousins done now?
EC, the term “D-day” is not limited to the one particular D-day of June 6, 1944. Wikipedia describes it as “a term often used in military parlance to denote the day on which a combat attack or operation is to be initiated”.
If Howard signs Kyoto he is really, really stuffed. Not Just stuffed – would anyone seriously believe him?
After saying it is “bad policy – a european solution” he would be crucified.
Pulled over by cop car, his person and the car were searched. He was then taken to a hospital for blood tests.
Other rumours suggest the cops followed him for several minutes before pulling him over, suggesting it was a premediated sting.
This will probably be the main news item for most of tomorrow as well, so releasing major policies tomorrow would be pointless.
My guess is Labor will announce at least part of their tax proposal on Friday so it makes all the Saturday papers, and is ready for before the debate.
Yeah, and along with his symbolic reconcillation pledge it would just seem desperate.
371 ruawake Thanks. But not in Melbourne.
The Rodent must be getting to hate A Current Affair. They’ve done him over 2 nights in a row. I think this Exclusive Brethren stuff could give him real heartache.
D-day doesn’t necessarily have to refer to the allied landings in France.
D-day was a code for the day when any militray operation began. Normanby was simply the most famous use of the code words. The landing times were referred to W-week, D-day, M-minute, S-second. They used the same codes in the Pacific theatre as well.
In our case it refers to the date in which the labor troops will try to storm the Liberal marginal forts/castles.
“Still Not Happy, John! Melbourne launch
INVITATION TO AN IMPORTANT BOOK LAUNCH
The Victorian Women’s Trust wishes to celebrate the work of acclaimed journalist and author Margo Kingston, by hosting the Melbourne launch of her new book ‘Still Not Happy John’.
The Launch will take place next Monday 22 October at 10.30 a.m. Рat EQ Caf̩ Bar, 100 St. Kilda Rd.
‘Still Not Happy John’ is a re-published special edition of ‘Not Happy John’, Kingston’s bestseller in 2004. Penguin Books Australia decided to republish the book in time for this year’s federal election. ”
If anyone reading this blog goes to this event, I would most appreciate if it you could report back to the blog on how it went. I am in SW Sydney and too far away to make it
:(:(
http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/2086
They did the Exclusive Brethren on Current Affair. Half of it was the 4 Corners stuff redone. But they were calling for more stories on them from viewers. It tied the Liberals in with them nicely.
What’s a Margo Kingston?
Excellent. I’m sure a lot more watched that than the 4 corners piece (unfortunately).
Right you are then, William. I’d completely forgotten what an authoritative souce wikipedia is.
Adam
All young people are awful. They have pimples and things in their ears and worry about their hair. They dart about on footpaths, with complete disregard to the rules of right-of-way. Keep left, you little buggers …
I’d completely forgotten what an authoritative source wikipedia is……………….it is just checkout Piers Akermans page
I can’t understand why the Rodent, Costello and other senior Liberals meeting with the Exclusive Brethren is not covered by the media with the same gravity as Rudd’s meetings with Brian Burke. Members of the Brethren have been associated with child sex allegations, there is the suggestion of misdoings in the last election, and they are called family wreckers by the disfellowshipped.
The Liberals have not just met with them, but taken their money, even written laws specifically for them (exemptions in the WorkChoices laws).
Why is this not a noisy scandal?
Adam writes at post379: “I’m not sure whether Young Lib sleazes or Young Labor fanatics are worse, but they are all awful in their different ways.”
Too true.
Young Labor are generally a bunch of pimply-faced nerds who excell at crunching numbers and stacking meetings, all in the cause of doing-over the Left. Full of angst, froth and political malevolence, they’re possessed of a penchant for plotting that would reduce the Borgias, by way of comparison, to rank amateur status.
As for the Young Libs, they’re a bunch of Hooray Henrys, all Gekko-slick-back and aftershave, given to poncing around in Daddy’s Bentley trying to pick-up chicks in Double Bay and whose idea of a top jape is diddling the ATO out of a few bucks on the annual Trust Account return, while lecturing the rest of us on the value of hard work. On the rare occasion that they do think, it’s usually about money.
As for the Young Greens, don’t even ask.
# 407 Rx ..Why is this not a noisy scandal?
Meh, maybe Piers will run with it not that his Heiner scandal has blown up in his face LOL.
The young greens are into horticulture, especially hydroponics.
a vote for the libs is a vote for higher petrol prices
The 17% Interest Rate Thing.
In 2007, is it still relevant now or has enough time passed?
I’d like to get all different views on this.
Rx @ 407
It’s not a convenient truth.
@ Evan 408 — an EXCELLENT and true description of both “young” groupings! Ah, good to be a young Liberal but not a Young Liberal (again with capitalisation making all the difference).
“Amber Dekstris Says:
Crispy 5.57
Who reckons Rudd picked five major policy areas because he doesn’t have six fingers?”
Amber, be thankful he doesn’t have eleven major policy areas.
It might be relevant now because it casts negative perceptions on the ALP. However, I believe the ALP won 1 or 2 elections after the 17% interest rates, so I’d argue it was never a huge vote driver in itself back in the day. Also, once the ALP return to government everyone will see interest rates aren’t going to soar to 17% and it’ll become completely irrelevant.
During the 80s and 90s polling indicated people trusted the ALP more on rates, due to Howard’s bad stint as Treasurer. Keating warned that if we elected Howard all the economic gains made under him would just go away. They didn’t. Nor will they now.
Well C-Woo, it shouldn’t be relevant – but Labor’s awful strategy in 2004 meant that it has lingered.
It’s simple enough to counter on two fronts – firstly, Howard had the 90 day bill rate at 22% back in 1982 with double digit inflation AND double digit unemployment.
Secondly, in terms of relativities, mortgage holders are very close to paying as high a percentage of their income today with rates at 6.5% than they did in 1989 at 17.5%.
I don’t know why Labor hasn’t attacked more on this point. I suppose they reason that it will only serve to remind older voters of the recession and reinforce the Coalition’s lead in economic management scores.
But in practical terms, many voters under 30 simply don’t remember the period in monetary terms. Personally, I remember the Peacock coup and Peter Shack’s embarrassing press conference about the health policy in much greater detail than interest rates…
For those who missed it before.
{Two senior elders of the Exclusive Brethren sect have gained permanent access to Federal Parliament, as lobbyists, under the sponsorship of two Howard Government MPs.
The Age has discovered that Sydney-based elders Stephen Hales and Warwick John were issued lobbyists’ passes after being vouched for by former minister Danna Vale and the member for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, Michael Ferguson.
Mr Hales, a Sydney businessman, is the brother of Bruce D. Hales, who leads the world-wide sect of 40,000 devotees.
The Age has also confirmed the church has retained Liberal-connected public relations firm Jackson Wells Morris to provide them with political advice and deal with “hostile media”.
A Four Corners report on ABC TV tonight will reveal further details of the secretive religious sect’s attempts, since 2004, to secure the election of conservative politicians world-wide – including massive flows of money, advertising and phone canvassing.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/two-mps-sponsor-brethren-lobbyists/2007/10/14/1192300599891.html
The Libs and the Exclusive Brethren what a combination,they deserve each other,we deserve neither of them.
And for those who miss the 4 Corners Report last night or would like to see it again following tonights ACA Report.
http://abc.net.au/4corners/content/2007/20071015_brethren/interviews.htm
isnt Exclusive Brethren whats libs call each other anyway?
Hi All – My seat predictions are now up in a (hopefully) more readable form on FairNews:
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/46/1/
I currently have Labor winning between 20 and 55 seats. You can read more on the link above.
The 17% interest rates are a load of crud, existing variable loans were capped at 13%.
Most people were on fixed interest rate mortgages.
Interest rates are much more of an issue now, than under Keating.
Tim Dunlop has a thread on it on his site. Some of the supporting arguments for Howard and the EB by the usual suspects on the site are truly pathetic.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/cult_of_secrecy/#commentsmore
Well the tax stuff has basically washed out of the press already as interest has waned. Rudd has been excellent in rebutting Custard’s shrill cries to respond and has got his message across as he is no longer being pressured for quick answers.
All in all, much to do about nothing and the “big plan” tax soufflé has gone flat already.
Now, if only Rudd stands firm by standing Howard up at his debate I’ll consider this a very good day indeed.
This is a sample of one of the better posts.
{What I found entertaining about the show,was watching a number of people interviewed who were picking and choosing their words so carefully (so as to be seen to not be lying) that it was almost like watching it in slow motion.
I have to also include our Lib pollies here, in that although they chose their words very carefully to avoid answering the questions put to them, they at least had had a lot more practice and were able to pull it off somewhat quicker.
I can’t believe the arrant nonsense I have read here from our resident Howard sycophants defending senior Coalition Members meeting covertly with people with an agenda contrary to the greater majority of Australians.
The fact that Howard and Co can meet with these people who are under investigation for committing a range of criminal offences both here and Internationally,is I find, totally abhorrent.
And Howard won’t give the same consideration to meeting with leaders of the mainstream establishment churches including the head of the Aust Council of Churches who represent many millions of Australians, beggars belief.
Strong questions must be asked by all right minded Australians and answers forthcoming. }
Luxuy yachet: A Mago is code for torpeado anhd severlas of sticking limpets and mussellls ////////plus havings of rubber divers tautoluglogies thes bein have traings in such ops. By golly, be not have thoiughting of such misdemenors here … // best to have settin g of sail for those partns that have cold behavoriors
Sanjay (428) you’ll have to get a better heiroglyphics translator. Your current one isn’t cutting the mustard.
AM @ 370
He might wedge himself. Painful?
The Exclusive Brethren issue is going to grow legs and take on a life of its own: we haven’t heard the last of it.
Schadenfreude is a sweet wine which is best enjoyed slowly.
the Exclusive Brethren story linking them to Howard and Costello was seen by over 1 Million plus people on 4 Corners and then again by a completely different 1 Million plus people tonight on ACA.
4 Corners last night rated particularly well at 1.1 Million. ACA usually gets abot 1.2 Million each night.
I would suggest they would attract vastly different audiences too, so probably 2 Million different viewers saw the links between this sect and Howard and Costello.
This whole EB episode is like a giant boil that needs immediate lancing and the rotten, infected, detrius beneath squeezed out and the wound exposed to the cleansing effect of total public scrutiny.
Yikes, the EB are total weirdo’s, mr & mrs average will not be impressed with their association to Howie and Custard.
Today has been a nothing day for both sides.
Currently watching SBS show on young voters in the seat of Moreton. Some of the young people in this seat worry me.. most seem apathetic and unsure and seem in the seat of Moreton not to be affected by workchoices.. The economy again seems the issue. People here seem undecided, again i think the last week will be crucial, especially the last two days. The media in recent years, especially Murdoch have been biased in these last two days.
I hope Labor does not “me to” on taxes, it would be better to offer spending increases in health and universities and on climate change.
Climate change will be the big issue in the years ahead, and just on tax, Kenneth Davidson in The Age yesterday shows certain tax measures which should be looked at regarding climate change, but will any party have the courage to do something regarding this i doubt it…
Well I HOPE it makes a difference because I don’t think extremist organisations of this sort have any role to play in politics.
However, if the media were going to ask Costello or Howard about it, it would’ve been today, straight after the 4 Corners report. The fact they didn’t suggests to me that this story will sink within a few days.
I imagine the exclusive brethren will be campaigning the same as last year, especailly in Bennelong.
Just being fair – it is John Howard and Peter Costello, we may not respect the person but we should respect the office.
Shows on, the Brethren issue, will be a nothing issue and the four corners show was all just fairy floss without sugar.. no evidence on Howard just circumstantial dross…
I agree that the story will fade away. However I disagree that it didn’t contain any implications for Howard.
He should distance himself from the organisation immediately, because it is highly likely that it has broken electoral law. This is because some of the political adverts were placed by a religious school, which counts as a charity organisation. It is illegal for charities to book election advertising.
I am not saying Howard asked them to do this. I am simply suggesting that Howard shouldn’t accept supportive adverts from organisations that are suspected of breaking electoral laws.
Yeah, Marky and Ben Cousins doesn’t do drugs!
The Piers Ackerman wiki site is gold…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Akerman
— The Hon. R. S. L. Jones, NSW Parliament Hansard, 1997
— Mark Latham, Member for Werriwa, ALP, Hansard of the Australian Parliament
LTEP, I doubt a limited ban on publication of polls would offend any implied constitutional freedom. The activist high court accepted the principle of blackouts on electronic ads in the final 3 days of the campaign; the literalist and parliamentary sovereignty junkies who rule the current court would care even less to strike down laws by appealing to an invented implications that aren’t even respected in some countries with explicit ‘free speech’ charters.
Also there’s distinguishing legal reasons: opinion polls aren’t a form of political communication. At best they are a form of indirect pressure on representative govt, but in a campaign the govt is in caretaker mode anyway. As for online polls, they are so rigged and skewed as to be misleading and hence be inherently regulable.
I wasn’t saying ban opinion polls in the campaign – though many countries do so. The best reasons against a ban would be (1) insiders would still leak party polling with the usual spin/deceit attached, and (2) problems of enforceability (polls could be published offshore via internet). Oh and a ban would be cruel and unusual punishment for junkies on sites like this.
Greensborough Growler- i don’t disagree that the Howard Government is probably involved with this extremist right wing group… but before you can exclusively go around stating such claims you need hard evidence and unfortunately as usual with this “sneaky” Howard Government we don’t have the evidence.
Marky,
Pure, unadulterated, self serving, bulldust!
Pi where are the politicians who make such comments now… who attack these “nutters” … I liked Latham because he spoke his mind and was typical larrikin Australian in the mould of a Keating… and he was at least willing to not be a Murdoch yes man which we will have with Rudd…
Crikey.com.au has an interesting tracker that judges who won each day of the campaign. See here:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/the-daily-verdict.html
Howard, Costello and Exclusive Brethren, guilt by association, sounds similar to the Dr Haneef case.
“Live by the sword die by the sword”.
Greensbourgh Growler- grow up..
ruawake @ 437
ex-military? We were delivered the same sermon – you don’t have to respect the person, but you must respect the rank.
So no it isn’t John Howard and Peter Costello, rather it’s the Prime Minister and the Treasurer…
… but I must admit I like the Lame Duck and the Chicken so much better.
I think no matter what, Rudd will show up to the Sunday debate. Better to embarrass Howard once on national TV than none at all? Why doesn’t Rudd just announce his tax policy at the debate and catch the rodent completely off guard.
Of course. This is what always happens. The opposition leader demands certain criteria. The P.M. rejects the criteria, then the opposition leader rocks up and does the debate however Howard wants it.
The most interesting change this time is the fact Howard wants the debate at parliament house, rather than at channel 9 studios. This is probably because he now doesn’t like Ray Martin because Martin agreed to host an ALP fundraiser.
It also meansn the room isn’t full of people who are anti-government. I don’t mean pro-ALP, but usually the default position of the studio audience is to oppose whoever is currently P.M.
Marky,
My goodness. The truth is there in front of your nose. There is more than enough evidence to form an opinion/judgement.
Or maybe you just want to rejoice in being a celebrity ignoramous.
Seems JWH has done a nice job on what George Herbert Walker Bush used to call the “mighty mo”.
JWH led with the tax policy, he is leading with the debate, what is it with these Labor guys they panic during election campaigns or what? Has anyone of them ever had a contested election?
Did Rudd, Swan or Gillard ever win an internal party ballot? Does anybody know? I seem to remember Beazley had never won a ballot?
Ernemy Combatant are you there? I have a special message for you.
Why do these debates have to be totally organised by Howard.. Rumour is David Spears is the moderator, though i am unsure as i have also heard that five people from the media will ask questions… But Howard like all debates has got generally what he wants… He is weak pr##k and has the gualle to suggest that the Opposition is weak and before him went around saying that Beazley has no ticker.. but will not debate.. I know it is a little trivial but more should be made of this weakness in character..
Marky Marky: I have to agree with you, if the idiots appearing on SBS’s Insight are typical of 18 year olds/first time voters, maybe we should be raising the voting age to 21. Some of the young blokes especially seemed to be as thick as two planks LOL
Exclusive Brethren: I don’t imagine News Ltd and Howard’s mate Shanahan will touch it, but this could be a problem for the Rodent if A Current Affair keeps focusing on the issue.
When is the next poll out?
Edward,
If you want to have any credibility to have to actually say something credible. Believe it or not.
Going by the reaction of people at work today the proposed tax cuts haven’t made a dent. People seem to still be turned off from what I can tell. Howard not breaking through.
Edward I think you may be overstating the