• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.
• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.
• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.
648 Comments
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The closer the Allies got to Berlin, the more the Feheur told his followers that victory was certain.
A lot of Liberal supporters cannot believe the public would be so stupid to change governments now.
A lot of Labor supporters know that voters re-elected this government in 1998, 2001 and 2004.
It’s not surprising to think a lot of people think the ALP will lose.
From my monitoring, the reaction to the tax-cut bribe has gone from tepid to smelly. It’s certainly on the nose today. Won’t be surprised if this brew turns toxic and has to be carted off by blokes in zoot suits for disposal.
Swing Lowe, I anticipate that there’ll be polls taken mid-week now; I expect Galaxy to report late this week. Newspoll will poll every weekend now, so other polls will want to get their own scoops in without clashing with Newspoll. See here for my campaign poll schedule:
http://ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=929
the rodent has declared he’ll be at the great hall on sunday for a debate. the question is, will he be chatting quietly amongst himself?
The Iraqi information Minister was famous for making similar claims as US troops poured into Baghdad, BrissyRod. Morale is not a strongpoint of team rodent at present.
LTEP is correct.
Liberal voters seem to be over-confident (although I notice a noticeable softening in attitudes from our regular conservative correspondents on this blog in this regard).
Labor voters seem to be pessimistic (and rightly so, given how awfully the last campaign was handled). I still rate Labor favourite, but there’s no way I’m going to call this election just yet.
GG @ #187 says
The proposed tax cuts are only on annual incomes above $30k. I doubt that this will have any impact on people on incomes less than $10k p.a.
Current tax rates are:
http://www.ato.gov.au/individuals/content.asp?doc=/content/12333.htm&pc=001/002/046/002/002&mnu=1045&mfp=001/002&st=&cy=1
Proposed tax rates are:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/economy/pledge-to-cut-tax/2007/10/15/1192300657771.html
Yes, the tax politics for Rudd are simple: smaller overall spend, but higher impact in the low and middle brackets.
Should be achievable.
Well, if Mr. Rudd is a no-show on Sunday night… Mr. Howard can always debate Mr. Costello! Those two are joined at the hip at the moment aren’t they!
There’s some info form someone at Liberal campaign headquarters at The Bulletin blog.
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/tax_cuts_cant_buy_politicians_love_anymore.htm
The insider says the tax policy was announced early as a way of winning over people who vote via postal votes, especially those voters in marginal easts.
Apparently over the next few days there is going to be a lot of letterboxing of pamphlets detailing the tax cut proposal.
Getten sie real time, folks: Until the coalition 2PP numbers start to look like the ALP *primary*, they have no chance of winning.
Wake me up when you see a poll like that.
In regards to the debate, a Mexican stand-off situation would play to Howard’s advantage.
Howard can turn up to the Great Hall and field questions on national TV for 90 minutes, thereby allowing him free kicks against Rudd and Labor on ALL issues. At the same time, Rudd will look arrogant for not turning up and the Coalition will do everything in their power to ensure that the public do not forget it. It also presents Howard with a great photo opportunity – Rudd will be painted as the “Missing Opposition Leader”.
And what does Rudd get out of not turning up to the debate? Nothing
So my advice to Rudd is this – turn up to the debate well prepared and cream Howard during it – we all know the format and timing sucks and there should be 3 debates instead of 1, but it’s better to win 1 than win none…
Loved this from Rudd:
centaur_007 @ 197
That’s an Occupational Health and Safety representative not an officer. The roles are very different.
An OH&S officer for a union spends a lot of their time supporting OH&S representatives with their issues, negotiating with employers and representing members’ interests to WorkSafe.
Re Corio: Marles was raised and educated in Geelong. O’Connor comes from Colac and only stood in Corio after failing twice to win Corangamite. I’m not sure who that makes the interloper. Furthermore, Marles polled 57% of the local vote in the preselection ballot (unlike some other candidates, who only got up with the help of the central panel). And don’t tell me that was the result of branch-stacking – there was a certain amount on both sides, but not enough to produce that result. A sitting member who loses the support of her/her local branches can’t expect to survive. I agree that O’Connor has some local support, but he’s about to turn 60 and was deadwood in Canberra. Where was he during the AWB scandal, which was in his portfolio area? All he was good for was old-time protectionist slogans. It was time for him to go.
The debate will happen Sunday night on Howard’s terms. Rudd will be there.
This is ALWAYS how it happens. The debate works however the P.M. says it will work.
It is a joke that this can’t all be decided independently, but we put up with the same thing every election.
203
Derek Corbett Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
From my monitoring, the reaction to the tax-cut bribe has gone from tepid to smelly. It’s certainly on the nose today.
If the economic analysists give proper scrutiny, then it is most probable we will see more of this sort of comment.
{First is whether it’s smart for the Government to declare a plan to “go for growth” when the Reserve Bank is campaigning for a slowdown.
Chris Richardson, of Access Economics, told the Herald in August: “The Government is throwing money into the economy and the Reserve Bank is trying to take it out again. We have one foot on the accelerator and one on the brake. No wonder we’re blowing smoke.”
The Government’s announcement shows an economy that is continuing to accelerate. It will fuel this by adding a further $7 billion in tax cuts in the year from next July 1.
“Based on the Government’s own forecasts, the car is accelerating, and at the margin its tax cuts increase the probability that interest rates will increase in 2008 and beyond,” said ANZ Bank’s chief economist, Saul Eslake.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/triumph-wont-help-howards-war/2007/10/15/1192300686895.html
The electoral commission is helping out by removing 143,000 young voters from the rolls in the last six months.How democratic of them.They were “removed by objection”,well thats alright then.In the Telegraph today.
191 Yohoho – A brave prediction about interest rates not rising on Nov 7. If the Sept qtr inflation figure is a big one, say over .9, Stevens will act. With no more quarterly inflation figures due until late January, the RBA would look a bit political if they delayed a needed rise until December or January.
“If JWH is going to win it will be a sneak from behind win in the last 2 weeks -hence “The narrowing†will only start late in the piece.”
Yeah, Eddy, right again! El Rodente is a “Poll Sneak”, a spiffily attired Restroom Rodent who can kick and move off either front paw when close to goal.
“………and now we cross live-to-Fleminton where punters have just witnessed a paralysing finishing burst from an aged gelding, “Hyacinth’s Hope”, who’s just schlepped topweight down the home straight to win in a photo…….”
Eddy, you’re a worthy opponent. Glen tries really, really hard but he’s just a pup compared to you.
I was driving home early this afternoon from lawn bowls, have been out of the information loop all morning. Heard on the news that Howard & co. were trying to bully Rudd into releasing his tax policy on their schedule. Well I guess I can see where they are coming from, they want the momentum {they aren’t going to get it though
}. Words used on the radio news were something to the effect of “if they didn’t have it out by the end of the day …..” . My first thought was Rudd isn’t going to fall for this rubbish, he is dealing from a position of strength at the moment, but I was worried a bit. Then they came on with the “rest” of the story and I heard Rudd’s sound bite that said he “wasn’t going there”. Kevin Rudd, you beauty 
:):) …………
Misty
That’s very good.
Chance here to wedge Howard: “Howard Hates Worms.”
Would play well with certain religious communities.
Our pet rat used to love worms.
Didn’t mind an odd cockroach which got too close to its cage either, (it was a QLD rat). Probably what did him undone in the end though.
don’t worry, judy. costello just looks like a complete buffoon to a lot of voters when he says stuff like that. kev has been pretty careful and tight so far, i can’t see him blowing it now on some half-a%$ed tax policy thrown together in a panic.
219
L.Duce
Got a link for us?
Would the broadcasters go ahead if Rudd refused to participate – an hour and a half of the PM would hardly be a ratings winner.
Rudd holding out would help him shift the me-too image. courage when taking tought decisions.
Adam: Marles may have been raised in Geelong, but the very strong vibe going around town is that of the candidate forced onto people. The preselection vote was stacked to hell (and widely reported as such – another reason why Marles is unpopular), and thus I don’t think reports that he won a “majority of the local vote” counts for very much.
As I said above, O’Connor is a well-liked local member, and Marles is about as popular as the proverbial turd-on-shoe. Marles’ll still most likely win, due to having access to Labor Party resources and organisation, but expect O’Connor to poll quite reasonably if he runs.
Costello demanding that Labor reply with their own tax policy by COB today is just hilarious. Does Costello think that Rudd is going to do “the $600 child allowance is not real” a la Latham? The Libs chose to have a long campaign – therefore Labor is free to release its policies at a time which suits Labor.
Yes, that is the same reaction I’m seeing as well.
While the MSM and lib hacks are drooling over it and boosting their chances seems to me the public just yawned and is over it already. Certainly not the “wow” reaction anticipated and if it does play out that way in the next polls it’s game over.
This seems to agree with many of the comments on this thread.
{Macquarie Bank’s Rory Robertson agrees: “The tax cuts will boost demand, and that boosts inflation.” The foot on the accelerator presses down, challenging the Reserve Bank to press down even harder on the brake.}
And this seems to be a well thoughout evatuation of its effects.
{The second strategic question looming over the Government’s policy is whether, having taken the economic risk, it will reap the political reward? A Liberal strategist privately posed the party’s secret fear: “Why would these cuts have a bigger political effect than the tax cuts in the May budget?”
The $36 billion in cuts in May produced no discernable improvement in the Coalition’s deathly poll figures.
As the Government delivered five consecutive years of tax cuts, the political benefit has seemed to become successively smaller.
If a $36 billion four-year program of tax cuts yielded zero effect, why would a $34 billion three-year program do better?}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/triumph-wont-help-howards-war/2007/10/15/1192300686895.html
Do not knowthe link method,it is a Steve Lewis story in the daily telegraph, breaking news.
190@Amber
I know it was a bit silly of me with the previous posting, but women of Julia’s age (45) start worry about what to do with their hair. Men it is simple “shave it off”. Mike Bressendon wrote an article somewhere about John Howard could not be Prime Minister until he worked out his hair. I think once she became happy with her hair she has grown into the position. Peter @ mumble often goes on about not letting her talk but I think she has now become an asset for the labor party.
L.Duce @219
Who objected? What this mean?
Il Duce, just cut and paste the URL, it will hyperlink automatically.
Doesn’t the cold, factual reporting of the Terror just make you smile?
“JOHN Howard and Peter Costello’s $34billion tax cuts bonanza has today polarised voters: the Daily Telegraph Online polls reveal voters are still paranoid about Workchoices even if they’re getting extra bucks in their wallets.”
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22594841-5001021,00.html
Scorpio
Vale Rat.
Again I’ve caught on late, but this is pretty funny. The History of the Liberal Party, featuring John Hewson: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwNxivx-56A
Derek@234
I don`t Know but i suspect it is lessons learned from the Rethuglian Party they are expert in targeted voter rolls cleansing.
236 Yo ho ho Says: October 16th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Yes… us plebs should recognize that is the conservatives job to terrorize the electorate with fears of boogeymen union officials, and black people, rather than the immature fears of keeping your job because of workchoices.
Thanks L.Duce
I wonder how long this will last before it turns around again?
{NEARLY three-quarters of the money bet on the election since Sunday has been for the coalition, bucking the trend of recent months when the majority of money consistently flowed to Labor, Sportingbet Australia has said.
The Coalition’s election odds for a fifth term of Government have narrowed to $2.75 from $2.90 since Prime Minister John Howard announced the November 24 election date on Sunday.
Labor’s odds have widened to $1.45 from $1.40.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had also reacted favourably to yesterday’s tax cut announcement.
The Government announced $34 billion of proposed tax cuts yesterday when it released its midyear Budget review.
“We have definitely seen a shift towards the Government in the past 24 hours with 73 per cent of all bets going to the Coalition,” Mr Sullivan said. }
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22595214-5001028,00.html
The link to the story L.Duce reported is:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22584626-5001021,00.html
Pancho, that is pretty funny. At least Hewson can laugh at himself, don’t think Howard has that capacity. Did you see the ‘credits’ at the end? Ha ha ha.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22584720-5012863,00.html
Try this for voter cleansing story.
Thanks Andos.
I don’t think the tax cuts offered by the Libs are much of a big deal at all. They are big, but so what. Australians have been used to getting tax cuts every year for the last 5 or so years, so it’s kind of expected now. And $30 a week in a couple of years isn’t such a big deal for most people.
I’m not saying it’s completely lost on people, but I just don’t think you get much “bang for your buck” these days when you give away tax cuts. People are like, “yeah thanks”.
In addition, it doesn’t have much staying power in the news. What can you say about them once you’ve said what the new scales would be? They don’t really generate much interesting debate… certainly not enough to last more than a day or two.
Spend just a third of the 34 billion on health or education and you will get huge media coverage and win a lot more kudos I think.
I think that it is probably even worse than this on-line poll suggests as I believe the Telegraph has significantly more of a Liberal supporter readership.
I don’t think that’s true – Artie Fadden for one. Also Fisher, although that was in Scotland and only primary school.
Update on the finances of the US election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7046295.stm
What i personally loved the most about the story was the use of ‘paranoia’ when referring to workchoices and the Howard-esque ‘you’ve never had it so good/even if they’re getting extra bucks in their wallets’.
Champagne comedy really.
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