• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.
• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.
• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.
648 Comments
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I almost sent through an ‘Andos, shhh’ message…Rudd’s discipline is infecting me…
see the following link for an interesting story on Forrest Marino in trouble
Basically nola marino, the liberal candidate in forrest, is in some serious strife from her own party.
Ah, you’re right Pancho. I certainly don’t want to help out the Liberal Party strategists. But then again, if they’re reading pollyblogs for PR strategies then they’re beyond help.
Local internet media (The Geographe Gazette) in the South West have picked up an interesting story concerning the Liberal candidate Nola Marino.
Craig Carbone, the 2005 Liberal candidate for Collie-Wellington (state seat) has told her that she is within inches of being dropped.
Also told her to door knock in the stronger Labor areas such as Withers and Collie and not just Liberal areas.
Also she was told to spend some of her money and not just rely on party money.
Forrest is turning out to be very interesting and may be a real surprise on election night.
Yes Hossen27, Nola isn’t too popular. I know my parents certainly won’t be voting for her, although they say that she has been showering them with letters.
SwingLowe @213:
Howard doesn’t want the debate on national TV. He wants it on the Sky channel, which will apparently get an audience of about 30,000 people. Howard afraid to face the people?
Peter Hartcher seems about the only one in the MSM to grasp that the Libs “brilliant” tax move coming this soon is actually likely to prove very poor strategy – probably motivated by a desire to keep their own side together at all, as opined by the Possum (all hail our noble Possum).
Any game theory specialists in the group care to comment on committing yourself to a big first move in this sort of game?
Or for those like me with an interest in military strategy (come on Glen, how about it), is anyone reminded of the disastrous Anglo-French moves of their forces north-west in 1914 and 1940, which far from seizing the initiative handed it over to the other side in a big way?
Costello as Colonel Grandmaison – without the personal courage of course …
I notice that the barely contained euphoria of a certain Labor victory has diminished a bit in the last day or so. Are many of you lefties peanuts reconsidering your views?
“NEARLY three-quarters of the money bet on the election since Sunday has been for the coalition, bucking the trend of recent months when the majority of money consistently flowed to Labor, Sportingbet Australia has said.”
This is the start of the narrowing…..
I think Rudd should stick to his demand (at least) 3 debates in the final weeks of the campaign.
It’s Howard on the back-foot here. He’s so desperate to pull down Rudd’s
poll that he has to agree to Rudd’s terms/offer.
Otherwise, as predicted, Rudd will continue to match on to the election winning.
Hey, Me Too, isnt it about time you showed us some KRuddie policies?
Because our media is biased John.
blindoptimist 298:
It seems that given enough thought the ALP has been able to develop techniques to neutralize, and even turn to their advantage, the negative campaigning tactics which proved so successful in previous elections here and in the US. I wonder if a similar approach by Kerry in the previous US election would have been able to neutralize the ‘Swift Boat Veterans for Truth’ series of smears.
It all goes to show just how prepared the ALP is for this campaign. They are light-years ahead of the Coalition in the techniques they are employing. I expect the ALP strategists would have been delighted to see that the Coalition’s sophistication had not progressed since the previous election, to the point where they are wheeling out the exact same ‘L plate’ smear advertisements.
Forget any election news in WA tonight.
Some breaking news (albeit on a micro scale): I’ve converted my neighbour, a life-long Liberal. She can’t stand Howard and as for Ruddock… well, she doesn’t usually swear, but today she did.
We both looked up her daughter’s enrolment on the AEC web site and found she’d been purged from the rolls (as she lives overseas). Went to great lengths to get her all the links for the AEC web site and emailed them to her. Just heard back that she’s filled out the form and sent the application from (of all places) Buenos Aires. She wants Howard out and thanked us for the effort.
That’s a big TWO Labor votes all in one day!
On other matters…
The prospect of Howard behind that lectern of his standing up in the Great Hall shouting at the wall is a wonderful thing. Please don’t go Kevin07. Just let the little fella stew in his own ponderous juices. It will be a pathetic performance, I promise youse.
Lastly, that Hawke clip was a doozy. Abdolutely brilliant and such a breath of fresh air in the otherwise stultifying and stodgy atmosphere of this “don’t put a foot wrong” election (although Kevin07 giving Howard’s L-Plate ad the flick was pretty good, in a controlled sort of way).
A great start to the campaign all ’round. The Coalition tax scam will be forgotten in a few days but what will be remembered is Rudd as the responsible candidate in not falling for Howard’s double-or-nothing, ambush approach to policy.
Feeling gee’d up I is.
I agree Rudd should continue to press for multiple debates even if he doesn’t get them — Howard still has to defend his own position of them.
Good to see some testicles from Labor in the tv ads (eg. the ad within the ad). I thought 2004 was spineless from Labor and a significant factor in their defeat.
Rudd the chess player has most of the moves covered and Howard will be hoping for inspiration because perspiration is getting him nowhere slowly.
Derek @296, your very restrained mate, ive been happily brainwashing everyone i come in contact with lol, i even tried it on with the camera men when we were taping a crime investigation show here, ive convinced my computor tech guy and ive got my pals now asking me every few days how the polls are going and do i still think we’ll get in, i think their more anxious than i am now to see the back of the dear leader, we all have to do our bit.
If what red wombat 288 and ruawake 293 are both true then it is a decisive time in this campaign. If the candidates for the Liberals can’t sell the message from the campaign leadership or the voters don’t want to talk Federal issues with them then these candidates are in bigger trouble than we thought possible.
Sid Marris and his poll which was posted earlier might be picking up on this display of disunity from a fractured party. I initially discounted it as very enthusiastic but he might just be onto something in light of 288 and 293.
Bill, that’s two less needed! Well done.
The Narrowing sounds like a Stephen King story. Just might turn out to be one.
Go Bill.
Oh Jimbo. Keep clutching. And I reckon you should get some money on before those odds shorten even further!
My troll detector is buzzing and pointing in Jim’s general direction.
Jim @ 4.43pm. Mate have you been living in a cave or something?
A little something for your enjoyment from youtube. To an old FleetwoodMac tune:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aEewsPhoLI&mode=related&search=
LOL. Trolls live under bridges, not in caves.
Rudd played the perception game well today, the housing affordability stuff will go down well. (I am not saying he actually did anything – just the perception he understands).
Ms Marino obviously needs to find a few cracks in the footpath or something.
Or find a hoon to lock up. Hey, there’s one on the Westralian website, with a great ugly tatt across his belly..
# 308 – Hey Jim…all I’m seeing on this site is more intelligent and considered analysis…just like always. Okay, so most of us are hoping to see The Rodent take a one way journey up his own backside on Nov 24th…but there’s a lotta smarts here. Perhaps Piers would be more your speed?
# 307 – Hey Marrickville…why’d you steal those watches, man?
Having painfully watched Agenda on Sky today, I have come to the conclusion that Janet Albrechtsen, far from being a right wing hack, is a complete and utter idiot.
There she was going on about how we should look at Centrebet rather than the polls as an indication of the election. So I did. And what did I see?
Labor $1.47/ Coalition $2.70
Yes – even on Janet’s famed election predictor, the Coalition is getting thumped.
Which brings me back to my initial point – Janet Albrechtsen is a complete and utter idiot.
Thank you for your patience during this rant.
Josh #325
She has bee solely running on local issues and has been attacked for it. Mark my words watch Forrest.
Speaking of debates,
I believe the last two weeks of the campaign would be appropriate after all policy is revealed.
Watch for the trump card played by Rudd in a month, it is a pearler.
Janet Albrechtsen was having a bad hair day.
That Hawke video that Let It End posted is a classic.
For those who missed it:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22459632-5013871,00.html
Albrechtsen will suffer severe relevance deprivation syndrome when the rodent loses.
Centre @ 321: ‘KRuddie’ was a give away. Also the time: 4.43pm. Our excitable Young Liberal had just arrived home from Kings (or equivalent) and thought he’d pop one out for Team H before texting his bros at the Brethren HQ.
… with the greatest of respect, James.
frank, I’m surprised that Howard is being so obstinate about the debates. I know that he is terrified of them and Rudd would be the favourite in such a forum, but he needs them for the same reason that opposition leaders usually do: he’s well behind.
I think it’s just Howard’s tendencies to megalomania that would see him cut off his nose to spite his face. He’d rather be in a corner stamping his feet and claiming that he sets the rules rather than be seen to have Rudd dictating terms. And I get the feeling that Rudd is in a win-win here. He has the profile and the lead, and I’m not sure it really matters if he gets debates or not. If he does, it’s likely he’ll come out of them looking good, and if he doesn’t, he can hammer Howard for looking scared.
Swing I imagine Janet has read that the money has been flowing the Libs way on Centrebet and the odds are narrowing – therefore the infallible bookies are correctly picking the swing back to Howard.
But hey, she’s still a complete and utter idiot.
They all get together for lunch, you know. Henderson, Devine, Albrechtson… compare notes and discuss tactics. The cheersquad rehearsing their moves…
Bob Hawke doing an impression of Howard. Love it!
To our resident troll, Jim,
As a self-confessed Labor supporter, I admit I have been wrong about certain things – it’s something that comes with the territory. However, I make a point of admitting when I have been wrong and I intend to do so again.
So, here is my confession:
I was wrong when I asserted that David Speers was not a right wing hack.
I was wrong when I asserted that he would be an appropriate moderator of the debate this Sunday.
And finally, I was wrong when I asserted that Sky would give Labor and Rudd a fair shake this election campaign.
So ends my confession (so far).
279 Pi Thats a good ad
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYxnlHmLzOw
But I’m still waiting for the very important Nuclear Power Plant ads.
312
Yoyoma Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
blindoptimist 298:
It seems that given enough thought the ALP has been able to develop techniques to neutralize, and even turn to their advantage, the negative campaigning tactics which proved so successful in previous elections..
..
Hi Yoyoma! Yes, the media tactics used by Rudd and his crew are very very good. If the past year is anything to go by, the Liberals are going to be out-campaigned in the next 6 weeks too…. a very comforting thought.
David Speers is just another Glen and ESJ with his monkey recitations of the CT “killer phrases” . I agree with others here that Rudd doesn’t need the debate so should just tell Howard to debate himself, even then Howard would still lose the debate anyway.
There’s no reason to a debate only on Sky TV!!!! Particularly not this early in the campaign.
Rudd should put out the story that he’s happy to debate Costello on Sky …. sometime on Friday.
So…it seems The Rodent is planning to show up at the Great Hall of Parliament House on Sunday and speak for an hour-and-a-half to two hundred Coalition supporters…all broadcast on Sky News.
Gee whizz, I can see people switching over from Kath & Kim in droves.
297 red wombat Exclusive Brethren pay for ads, and thy don’t have the Liberal Logo. Although they said on 4 Corners that they weren’t involved in this election. BS if you ask me.
How about Howard vs The Drover’s Dog (trained to exhibit minimal hubris)?
(Howard vs Rudd would be a barking contest anyway …)
howard in a one handed debate..
suerly they even screen that type of thing on Pay TV?
Can They?
Hawkie’s still got it…tracksuits, Damascus and an ample arse. Funny stuff.
Red Wombat
That is inspiring stuff for La Trobe!!! What vision! Is he running for council, the local school book group, or Federal Paliament?
on the debate..
Yes, Rudd should hold out for 3. He will out-manouvre Howard. In any case, the campaign should be about more than ads and set-piece media moments. 3 debates – social policy, economic policy, foreign affairs and security policy – on the big issues.
Good news and bad news for Howard supporters.
First the good news; it is true that the coalition has firmed slightly since the announcement of the election. On, the most accurate indicator of all IMO, Betfair: LAB 1.48 – 1.53. LIB 1.96 – 1.82.
Now the bad news; the market fears the incumbant. In 1996 Keating was heavily backed in the campaign.
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2007/10/16/2358_ntnews.html
Funny things happening in Darwin. He says he’s an independent. Labor says he’s a Liberal front, and that he’s currently a Young Liberal office-bearer.
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