• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.
• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.
• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.
648 Comments
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342
Snakeboy Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 5:25 pm
So…it seems The Rodent is planning to show up at the Great Hall of Parliament House on Sunday and speak for an hour-and-a-half to two hundred Coalition supporters…all broadcast on Sky News…
……
Unbelievable! Talk about preaching to the choir….are they going to pay sky news ? or is this a freebie?
Pancho, you have me confused
thank you for your reply.
Howard acts like he has the upper hand, while indeed,
he enters the campaign as an under-dog.
Maybe we could get the cabinet and shadow cabinet all together so that they can all have a debate en masse.
Crispy @ 113
My apologies – I logged off after posting my last comment.
“If he offers the same amount of cuts, then the ‘me too’ cries will once again pop up – it’s a line that’s starting to bite.â€
What is your evidence for this, other than wishful thinking? The ‘me-tooism’ angle has been running for months, to no effect so far.
I assume you mean “evidence the ‘me too-ism’ is starting to bite?” None that I can call concrete. I shall instead present an example. Last night I opened up a conversation with a chap whom I haven’t talked to in quite a long time (months). I mentioned in the course of conversation that posters of Rudd everywhere was starting to bug me. The conversation ensured, and the very first thing he asked me when I noted my dislike for Mr Rudd is “ah – the me too-ism is annoying you?”
I did not bring it up at all. Apparently he will vote labor, and that was the first thing that came to his mind.
‘Wishful thinking’ perhaps, but by the end of the campaign this line will likely have been plastered about a few thousand times by the parties. Commentators have been using it a lot as well. Of course, this will not necessarily translate into votes, but that was not my argument.
pi @ 130
And here’s me thinking the last poll had the ALP on a 12 point margin.
You know… just saying something doesn’t make it true. Or haven’t you figured that out?
Please give me a break – I am not blinded by ignorance. I know the polls are terrible. I know Labor will likely win. I also see the advantages of a change in government, and in many aspects think it will be a good thing, especially in regard to health care – for once, governments will struggle to pass the blame. Results might ensure, who knows? Regardless, when weighing it up, I still fancy the libs. I also know that it is much, much better to have a productive campaign rather then have a party lie on the floor dormant.
Sean @ 133
The problem with Max’s view re Rudd is that he’s implicitly suggesting that Howard is the sort of guy that the punters would like to hang out with. I suspect Max might be the sort of guy who stands in the corner at parties
Grow up. That was pathetic beyond belief.
Alex @ 141
Max – 110 You obviously don’t keep up with economic debate in Australia. The proposed tax cuts (repeat ‘proposed’) are just what most economic commentators have been suggesting for years! So there is nothing innovative about the Libs announcement, just a desperate attempt to get in the game.
No kidding. And you know what? Those exact same people are also cautioning against overloading the economy and having interest rates shoot up. I did economics 101 as well.
I would also like to point out that there will rarely be a truly ‘innovative’ announcement these days – politicians rarely introduce brand new ideas. Everything is stolen or adapdted from something else. Which is bound to happen after a few thousands years of humanity.
**
I think that was all of them.
Sheesh.
That ALP ad is so effective, the coalition might even need to withdraw the L-plate nonsense.
Punters will just start seeing that hand move across screen with the remote control – since let’s face it – party ads are irritating. Everyone wants to switch them off, deep down.
And who’s switching it off? The Kruddster.
it’s brilliant.
{he can hammer Howard for looking scared.}
That won’t be too hard to do. Howard “IS” scared and will probably have to wear one of those special nappies for the rest of the campaign.
Also, if Betfair is showing the Liberals paying 1.82 at the same time as the bookies have 2.70, the bookies are REALLY trying to draw money to the Libs in a way that does not follow the market driven arguments like it sounds the Orange Lady is trying to mount. The aim of floating such wide odds is to get money coming in the the less favoured, and it is no surpirse that this is happening now, and no doubt will happen further.
My question is, who are these fools backing the Libs at 1.82 on Betfair when you can get 2.70 with the click of a mouse? Not Jim, for one.
Um – Pancho, I think you’ve misquoted the odds. Betfair currently has the Libs at 2.84, with Labor at 1.53.
PM debating himself?
Interesting, I wonder who would win, Dr Jeckle or Mr Hyde?
That makes more sense I guess. I was following post #349’s odds quote.
ruawake Says: @ 353
{so that they can all have a debate en masse.}
A mass debate, I’d like to see that.
Naughty reawake!
“PM debating himself?
Interesting, I wonder who would win, Dr Jeckle or Mr Hyde?”
AM, you’re leaving a Labor flank open there…
{PM debating himself?}
He could always join in the “mass debate”!
Pancho, sorry I made a typo. LIB 2.96 – 2.82. The prices total almost 100% the highest available in the marketplace.
AM #359
What would you call it if our master debated himself????
315 Amber Dekstris Couldn’t agree more with you on the spineless Labor Party ads in 2004. I have seen some great ads with testicles already. But they are still hiding them. I will be most angry if they do not run them later. Specifically the Nuclear Power ads.
Coalition still $3.05 at Portlandbet. Has been these odds for at least 4 days.
The current “real” value of a runner is with the highest odds available – not any one quote or any average.
This is not to say that the Coalition hasn’t been backed recently – it certainly has – but not with enormous amounts.
Bookies are constantly reassessing the marketplace, using judgment and expectation, as much as bets, to formulate latest odds.
350 Adam
You can find out plenty about Mr Chester over at Club Troppo, where he is a major contributor, and the webmaster.
http://clubtroppo.com.au/
http://clubtroppo.com.au/author/jacques-chester/
Beautiful, scaper 365. He’d probably find himself a handful.
cheers,
Alan H
Scaper.
He would be screwed by himself.
Chris B
The Nuclear power ads are running in Qld.
354 Hello Max, yes you’re the go-to guy on the Tory side today so everyone jumped on your head with glee.
The ‘me-too’ terminology is really just a Lib spin on ‘not being wedged on issues that aren’t vital’, and so far Rudd’s use of the device has been deft in starving the government of ammunition. (Witness the ridiculous capital punishment ‘gaffe’ – give the government a bullet and they try to turn it into a howitzer.)
We’ll see a lot less ‘me-too’ from here on and a lot more of Kevin holding up one hand and ticking off those fingers – WorkChoices, Environment, Education, Health, Infrastructure – where the differences are quite clear. We’ll all be sick of that after six weeks, for sure.
scaper… Says:
October 16th, 2007 at 5:50 pm
AM #359
What would you call it if our master debated himself????
Would it be Masterbate?????
“Talkback radio callers say no to tax cuts”
http://blogs.theage.com.au/mediamatters/archives/2007/10/talkback_radio.html
“Media Monitors analysis showed calls on what The Age presented as a “bold initiative” that left Opposition leader Kevin Rudd “flat-footed” (The Australian) ran almost four to one against the government.”
Yes bryce but it is difficult to keep track of each bookie.
I suspect that Portland are holding a clear liability on Labor and are trying to balance their books to a reasonable extent.
I wonder if media monitors have someone reading blogs?
Hi Johnny Croll – told you it was a good idea to set up computer monitoring 15 years ago.
Was it Vince Gair, the last DLP leader, famously addressing an empty street? Historic footage. Reminds me of Howard.
Re Jacques Chester: I think there should be a law against people under 25 joining political parties or standing for office. I’m not sure whether Young Lib sleazes or Young Labor fanatics are worse, but they are all awful in their different ways.
Crispy 5.57
Who reckons Rudd picked five major policy areas because he doesn’t have six fingers?
Absolutely agree Adam, there’s often something twisted about them.
If they are going to debate tax cuts and the economy then that would be a kind of maths debate wouldn’t it?
Let’s see Hockey – or the rodent or Costello or Minchin – debate Julia Gillard on WorkChoices. Someone from the Liberals has to stand up for their flagship policy. After spending tens of millions of public money this year promoting it, they would look silly and spineless if they are not prepared to defend it as a Party.
Exclusive Brethren on Current Affair.
‘God, I can’t believe The Oz actually published this (an analysis of their Coredata Online poll):
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22595366-5013871,00.html‘
These online surveys still aren’t worth the paper they aren’t written on. Is Graham Young, the ex-Lib of Brisbane behind this one?
At best online surveys might become a way of creating virtual focus groups. But for one off surveys they are a skewed and hence meaningless sample, even when they aren’t riggable at the click of a button.
Some countries ban publishing genuine (statistically valid) opinion polls in the lead up to elections. At a minimum, Parlt should use the broadcasting power to ban faux online polls on political/electoral issues, and those money-grubbing t.v. variants. All they do is waste the time and (typically workday resources) of the party hacks and partisans who try to rig them in the faint hope of misleading gullible folk for a few nano-seconds.
There’s a pretty cool new 7:30 report opening sequence. It has shots of parliament instead of the old ’squares’ of faces and such
Yes Chris B, ACA is doing the Exclusive Brethren thing after their report on the Ben Cousins arrest – shall we call them the West Coke Eagles?
LOL
Graeme, I think you’d find that they’d run into problems regarding freedom of political communication should they try to ban polls from being run and published during an election campaign.
William, please bear with me for a moment’s pedantry amongst this sea of psephological seriousness. It’s the “D-day” thing, which actually went down on June 6, 1944. Beach-storming your analogy, who are the goodies and who are the baddies here? Is Kevvy, Ike; El Rodente, Rommel? Generally speaking your impartiality is beyond reproach. Those familiar with the waging of WW2, like Eddy who’s already outted himself as a Historian, might suspect you are suggesting that Team Rodent are facsimiles of the Nazi defenders on D-day itself, since this is the outfit who were holding the fort, so to speak.
Perhaps your usage when viewed in the fullness of History is an accidental slight too far.
On an E for Election basis, would you buy “E-day minus 39″?
“Crikey.com.au understands that John Howard’s Environment Minister, Malcolm Turnbull says signing Kyoto would be “worth three per cent†for the Coalition vote, writes Christian Kerr.”
Who agrees with this claim? I think signing Kyoto makes claims about client change policy somewhat more credible, but could it really shift 3% of the vote? I think it would be more like 0.5 – 1%, it simply helps show that Labor is interesting in finding international solutions (i.e. the only solutions that will work).
Crikey is telling Rudd he should tell the PM where to stick Sunday’s debate and I certainly hope that he does …..
“Mr Rudd should call Mr Howard’s bluff and keep saying that it is to be a series of debates or nothing and that they should be held on the last three Sunday nights of the campaign.”
Oh dear what has Cousins done now?
EC, the term “D-day” is not limited to the one particular D-day of June 6, 1944. Wikipedia describes it as “a term often used in military parlance to denote the day on which a combat attack or operation is to be initiated”.
If Howard signs Kyoto he is really, really stuffed. Not Just stuffed – would anyone seriously believe him?
After saying it is “bad policy – a european solution” he would be crucified.
Pulled over by cop car, his person and the car were searched. He was then taken to a hospital for blood tests.
Other rumours suggest the cops followed him for several minutes before pulling him over, suggesting it was a premediated sting.
This will probably be the main news item for most of tomorrow as well, so releasing major policies tomorrow would be pointless.
My guess is Labor will announce at least part of their tax proposal on Friday so it makes all the Saturday papers, and is ready for before the debate.
Yeah, and along with his symbolic reconcillation pledge it would just seem desperate.
371 ruawake Thanks. But not in Melbourne.
The Rodent must be getting to hate A Current Affair. They’ve done him over 2 nights in a row. I think this Exclusive Brethren stuff could give him real heartache.
D-day doesn’t necessarily have to refer to the allied landings in France.
D-day was a code for the day when any militray operation began. Normanby was simply the most famous use of the code words. The landing times were referred to W-week, D-day, M-minute, S-second. They used the same codes in the Pacific theatre as well.
In our case it refers to the date in which the labor troops will try to storm the Liberal marginal forts/castles.
“Still Not Happy, John! Melbourne launch
INVITATION TO AN IMPORTANT BOOK LAUNCH
The Victorian Women’s Trust wishes to celebrate the work of acclaimed journalist and author Margo Kingston, by hosting the Melbourne launch of her new book ‘Still Not Happy John’.
The Launch will take place next Monday 22 October at 10.30 a.m. Рat EQ Caf̩ Bar, 100 St. Kilda Rd.
‘Still Not Happy John’ is a re-published special edition of ‘Not Happy John’, Kingston’s bestseller in 2004. Penguin Books Australia decided to republish the book in time for this year’s federal election. ”
If anyone reading this blog goes to this event, I would most appreciate if it you could report back to the blog on how it went. I am in SW Sydney and too far away to make it
:(:(
http://webdiary.com.au/cms/?q=node/2086
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