• Hot on the heels of yesterday’s Galaxy poll of Queensland marginals, Michael McKenna in The Australian tells us the Liberals feel they might even be able to save Moreton, thus limiting the damage to Bonner. Intriguingly, Labor is said to have ‘virtually “written off”’ Mal Brough’s seat of Longman. Dickson is also said to be a bridge too far. Longman was one of the four seats surveyed in the Galaxy poll, suggesting it may have added Liberal ballast to the overall 51-49 result.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian discusses the electoral strategy behind the Coalition’s “three piece” tax cut, which consists of a low-income tax offset, a “fiddle to the threshold for the 30 per cent marginal tax rate” and cuts to the two top tax rates. The first is rated the most significant, being targeted at “the politically sensitive spot on the income ladder where the part-time working mother is most likely to be found” through a measure “not shared by higher income earners”. Megalogenis says no fewer than 18 Liberal-held marginals contain above-average numbers of the policy’s target market.
• Misha Schubert of The Age reports that Corio MP Gavan O’Connor, who has been dumped by Labor in favour of former ACTU assistant secretary Richard Marles, will announce on Thursday whether he plans to run as an independent. He is “tipped” to do so.
• Running through the Tasmanian seats, Matthew Denholm of The Australian reckons the Gunns pulp mill approval might benefit the Liberals not in Bass but in neighbouring Braddon, “Tasmania’s least green seat where many businesses will benefit from the project”.
• Typically bold predictions from Malcolm MacKerras in The Australian (not available online as far as I can see), who tips 89 seats for Labor, 59 for the Coalition and two independents. Bennelong and Wentworth are both on the casualty list.
648 Comments
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They did the Exclusive Brethren on Current Affair. Half of it was the 4 Corners stuff redone. But they were calling for more stories on them from viewers. It tied the Liberals in with them nicely.
What’s a Margo Kingston?
Excellent. I’m sure a lot more watched that than the 4 corners piece (unfortunately).
Right you are then, William. I’d completely forgotten what an authoritative souce wikipedia is.
Adam
All young people are awful. They have pimples and things in their ears and worry about their hair. They dart about on footpaths, with complete disregard to the rules of right-of-way. Keep left, you little buggers …
I’d completely forgotten what an authoritative source wikipedia is……………….it is just checkout Piers Akermans page
I can’t understand why the Rodent, Costello and other senior Liberals meeting with the Exclusive Brethren is not covered by the media with the same gravity as Rudd’s meetings with Brian Burke. Members of the Brethren have been associated with child sex allegations, there is the suggestion of misdoings in the last election, and they are called family wreckers by the disfellowshipped.
The Liberals have not just met with them, but taken their money, even written laws specifically for them (exemptions in the WorkChoices laws).
Why is this not a noisy scandal?
Adam writes at post379: “I’m not sure whether Young Lib sleazes or Young Labor fanatics are worse, but they are all awful in their different ways.”
Too true.
Young Labor are generally a bunch of pimply-faced nerds who excell at crunching numbers and stacking meetings, all in the cause of doing-over the Left. Full of angst, froth and political malevolence, they’re possessed of a penchant for plotting that would reduce the Borgias, by way of comparison, to rank amateur status.
As for the Young Libs, they’re a bunch of Hooray Henrys, all Gekko-slick-back and aftershave, given to poncing around in Daddy’s Bentley trying to pick-up chicks in Double Bay and whose idea of a top jape is diddling the ATO out of a few bucks on the annual Trust Account return, while lecturing the rest of us on the value of hard work. On the rare occasion that they do think, it’s usually about money.
As for the Young Greens, don’t even ask.
# 407 Rx ..Why is this not a noisy scandal?
Meh, maybe Piers will run with it not that his Heiner scandal has blown up in his face LOL.
The young greens are into horticulture, especially hydroponics.
a vote for the libs is a vote for higher petrol prices
The 17% Interest Rate Thing.
In 2007, is it still relevant now or has enough time passed?
I’d like to get all different views on this.
Rx @ 407
It’s not a convenient truth.
@ Evan 408 — an EXCELLENT and true description of both “young” groupings! Ah, good to be a young Liberal but not a Young Liberal (again with capitalisation making all the difference).
“Amber Dekstris Says:
Crispy 5.57
Who reckons Rudd picked five major policy areas because he doesn’t have six fingers?”
Amber, be thankful he doesn’t have eleven major policy areas.
It might be relevant now because it casts negative perceptions on the ALP. However, I believe the ALP won 1 or 2 elections after the 17% interest rates, so I’d argue it was never a huge vote driver in itself back in the day. Also, once the ALP return to government everyone will see interest rates aren’t going to soar to 17% and it’ll become completely irrelevant.
During the 80s and 90s polling indicated people trusted the ALP more on rates, due to Howard’s bad stint as Treasurer. Keating warned that if we elected Howard all the economic gains made under him would just go away. They didn’t. Nor will they now.
Well C-Woo, it shouldn’t be relevant – but Labor’s awful strategy in 2004 meant that it has lingered.
It’s simple enough to counter on two fronts – firstly, Howard had the 90 day bill rate at 22% back in 1982 with double digit inflation AND double digit unemployment.
Secondly, in terms of relativities, mortgage holders are very close to paying as high a percentage of their income today with rates at 6.5% than they did in 1989 at 17.5%.
I don’t know why Labor hasn’t attacked more on this point. I suppose they reason that it will only serve to remind older voters of the recession and reinforce the Coalition’s lead in economic management scores.
But in practical terms, many voters under 30 simply don’t remember the period in monetary terms. Personally, I remember the Peacock coup and Peter Shack’s embarrassing press conference about the health policy in much greater detail than interest rates…
For those who missed it before.
{Two senior elders of the Exclusive Brethren sect have gained permanent access to Federal Parliament, as lobbyists, under the sponsorship of two Howard Government MPs.
The Age has discovered that Sydney-based elders Stephen Hales and Warwick John were issued lobbyists’ passes after being vouched for by former minister Danna Vale and the member for the Tasmanian seat of Bass, Michael Ferguson.
Mr Hales, a Sydney businessman, is the brother of Bruce D. Hales, who leads the world-wide sect of 40,000 devotees.
The Age has also confirmed the church has retained Liberal-connected public relations firm Jackson Wells Morris to provide them with political advice and deal with “hostile media”.
A Four Corners report on ABC TV tonight will reveal further details of the secretive religious sect’s attempts, since 2004, to secure the election of conservative politicians world-wide – including massive flows of money, advertising and phone canvassing.}
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/two-mps-sponsor-brethren-lobbyists/2007/10/14/1192300599891.html
The Libs and the Exclusive Brethren what a combination,they deserve each other,we deserve neither of them.
And for those who miss the 4 Corners Report last night or would like to see it again following tonights ACA Report.
http://abc.net.au/4corners/content/2007/20071015_brethren/interviews.htm
isnt Exclusive Brethren whats libs call each other anyway?
Hi All – My seat predictions are now up in a (hopefully) more readable form on FairNews:
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/46/1/
I currently have Labor winning between 20 and 55 seats. You can read more on the link above.
The 17% interest rates are a load of crud, existing variable loans were capped at 13%.
Most people were on fixed interest rate mortgages.
Interest rates are much more of an issue now, than under Keating.
Tim Dunlop has a thread on it on his site. Some of the supporting arguments for Howard and the EB by the usual suspects on the site are truly pathetic.
http://blogs.news.com.au/news/blogocracy/index.php/news/comments/cult_of_secrecy/#commentsmore
Well the tax stuff has basically washed out of the press already as interest has waned. Rudd has been excellent in rebutting Custard’s shrill cries to respond and has got his message across as he is no longer being pressured for quick answers.
All in all, much to do about nothing and the “big plan” tax soufflé has gone flat already.
Now, if only Rudd stands firm by standing Howard up at his debate I’ll consider this a very good day indeed.
This is a sample of one of the better posts.
{What I found entertaining about the show,was watching a number of people interviewed who were picking and choosing their words so carefully (so as to be seen to not be lying) that it was almost like watching it in slow motion.
I have to also include our Lib pollies here, in that although they chose their words very carefully to avoid answering the questions put to them, they at least had had a lot more practice and were able to pull it off somewhat quicker.
I can’t believe the arrant nonsense I have read here from our resident Howard sycophants defending senior Coalition Members meeting covertly with people with an agenda contrary to the greater majority of Australians.
The fact that Howard and Co can meet with these people who are under investigation for committing a range of criminal offences both here and Internationally,is I find, totally abhorrent.
And Howard won’t give the same consideration to meeting with leaders of the mainstream establishment churches including the head of the Aust Council of Churches who represent many millions of Australians, beggars belief.
Strong questions must be asked by all right minded Australians and answers forthcoming. }
Luxuy yachet: A Mago is code for torpeado anhd severlas of sticking limpets and mussellls ////////plus havings of rubber divers tautoluglogies thes bein have traings in such ops. By golly, be not have thoiughting of such misdemenors here … // best to have settin g of sail for those partns that have cold behavoriors
Sanjay (428) you’ll have to get a better heiroglyphics translator. Your current one isn’t cutting the mustard.
AM @ 370
He might wedge himself. Painful?
The Exclusive Brethren issue is going to grow legs and take on a life of its own: we haven’t heard the last of it.
Schadenfreude is a sweet wine which is best enjoyed slowly.
the Exclusive Brethren story linking them to Howard and Costello was seen by over 1 Million plus people on 4 Corners and then again by a completely different 1 Million plus people tonight on ACA.
4 Corners last night rated particularly well at 1.1 Million. ACA usually gets abot 1.2 Million each night.
I would suggest they would attract vastly different audiences too, so probably 2 Million different viewers saw the links between this sect and Howard and Costello.
This whole EB episode is like a giant boil that needs immediate lancing and the rotten, infected, detrius beneath squeezed out and the wound exposed to the cleansing effect of total public scrutiny.
Yikes, the EB are total weirdo’s, mr & mrs average will not be impressed with their association to Howie and Custard.
Today has been a nothing day for both sides.
Currently watching SBS show on young voters in the seat of Moreton. Some of the young people in this seat worry me.. most seem apathetic and unsure and seem in the seat of Moreton not to be affected by workchoices.. The economy again seems the issue. People here seem undecided, again i think the last week will be crucial, especially the last two days. The media in recent years, especially Murdoch have been biased in these last two days.
I hope Labor does not “me to” on taxes, it would be better to offer spending increases in health and universities and on climate change.
Climate change will be the big issue in the years ahead, and just on tax, Kenneth Davidson in The Age yesterday shows certain tax measures which should be looked at regarding climate change, but will any party have the courage to do something regarding this i doubt it…
Well I HOPE it makes a difference because I don’t think extremist organisations of this sort have any role to play in politics.
However, if the media were going to ask Costello or Howard about it, it would’ve been today, straight after the 4 Corners report. The fact they didn’t suggests to me that this story will sink within a few days.
I imagine the exclusive brethren will be campaigning the same as last year, especailly in Bennelong.
Just being fair – it is John Howard and Peter Costello, we may not respect the person but we should respect the office.
Shows on, the Brethren issue, will be a nothing issue and the four corners show was all just fairy floss without sugar.. no evidence on Howard just circumstantial dross…
I agree that the story will fade away. However I disagree that it didn’t contain any implications for Howard.
He should distance himself from the organisation immediately, because it is highly likely that it has broken electoral law. This is because some of the political adverts were placed by a religious school, which counts as a charity organisation. It is illegal for charities to book election advertising.
I am not saying Howard asked them to do this. I am simply suggesting that Howard shouldn’t accept supportive adverts from organisations that are suspected of breaking electoral laws.
Yeah, Marky and Ben Cousins doesn’t do drugs!
The Piers Ackerman wiki site is gold…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piers_Akerman
— The Hon. R. S. L. Jones, NSW Parliament Hansard, 1997
— Mark Latham, Member for Werriwa, ALP, Hansard of the Australian Parliament
LTEP, I doubt a limited ban on publication of polls would offend any implied constitutional freedom. The activist high court accepted the principle of blackouts on electronic ads in the final 3 days of the campaign; the literalist and parliamentary sovereignty junkies who rule the current court would care even less to strike down laws by appealing to an invented implications that aren’t even respected in some countries with explicit ‘free speech’ charters.
Also there’s distinguishing legal reasons: opinion polls aren’t a form of political communication. At best they are a form of indirect pressure on representative govt, but in a campaign the govt is in caretaker mode anyway. As for online polls, they are so rigged and skewed as to be misleading and hence be inherently regulable.
I wasn’t saying ban opinion polls in the campaign – though many countries do so. The best reasons against a ban would be (1) insiders would still leak party polling with the usual spin/deceit attached, and (2) problems of enforceability (polls could be published offshore via internet). Oh and a ban would be cruel and unusual punishment for junkies on sites like this.
Greensborough Growler- i don’t disagree that the Howard Government is probably involved with this extremist right wing group… but before you can exclusively go around stating such claims you need hard evidence and unfortunately as usual with this “sneaky” Howard Government we don’t have the evidence.
Marky,
Pure, unadulterated, self serving, bulldust!
Pi where are the politicians who make such comments now… who attack these “nutters” … I liked Latham because he spoke his mind and was typical larrikin Australian in the mould of a Keating… and he was at least willing to not be a Murdoch yes man which we will have with Rudd…
Crikey.com.au has an interesting tracker that judges who won each day of the campaign. See here:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/the-daily-verdict.html
Howard, Costello and Exclusive Brethren, guilt by association, sounds similar to the Dr Haneef case.
“Live by the sword die by the sword”.
Greensbourgh Growler- grow up..
ruawake @ 437
ex-military? We were delivered the same sermon – you don’t have to respect the person, but you must respect the rank.
So no it isn’t John Howard and Peter Costello, rather it’s the Prime Minister and the Treasurer…
… but I must admit I like the Lame Duck and the Chicken so much better.
I think no matter what, Rudd will show up to the Sunday debate. Better to embarrass Howard once on national TV than none at all? Why doesn’t Rudd just announce his tax policy at the debate and catch the rodent completely off guard.
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