The Australian has published a follow-up to its weekend Newspoll survey, showing issues rated most important and the party considered best equipped to handle them. Labor holds handsome leads on six of the eight listed issues, the exceptions being the economy and national security. Interestingly, the Coalition’s score on industrial relations has increased to 34 per cent from 31 per cent at the previous survey in June, after hovering around 30 per cent since the beginning of 2006. Industrial relations is also the one issue where there was no appreciable shift to Labor when Kevin Rudd became leader. The other issue to run against the overall trend is national security – it surged to Labor as strongly as any other when Rudd took over, but the Coalition has since recovered to levels near those of the Beazley era.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
874 Comments
As I’ve been saying all year, WorkChoices is overestimated as the cause of the ALP’s good standing in the polls up to now.
Labor need to get rolling with this campaign as it’s looking terrible for them at the moment by any objective viewpoint.
Current prediction: Coalition by 7 seats.
Every article in the Government Gazette is negative for the ALP today. As usual Dennis is screaming at the top of his lungs about how Labour has to catch up with the government.
I thought it was the government that was behind in every poll since Kevin Rudd took over. Then again I suppose this is to be expected. Uncle Rupert is not going to let Kevin win without a huge fight. And I have always said, Howard has a huge warchest to spend and the Australian people’s greed is astonishingly huge.
I await the narrowing.
Speaking of the economy Peter Hartcher lets fly in the smh:
Sounds to me like we must throw off the cultural aspects of voodoo economics, ie the people who falsely claim that a 16 year boom was engineered by them instead of the Hawke/Keating reforms and an insatiable China buying our resources of late.
As Hartcher goes on to say:
I am always sickened by the LNP’s actual performance, like how they have ignored infrastructure (and education) except for pork purposes in marginal seats. They are the worst economic managers, ever, and have squandered the boom proceeds for so long it’s a national disgrace.
Peter, I couldn’t agree more. There is so much that needs to be done or could be done, such as matching the states in terms of funding at the very least. Howard’s defence on why this was not occurring was that the states were putting more in because of the GST. Isn’t this the same GST that the federal government is also receiving a part of?
The other thing that bothers me is that the Coalition has presided over a long period of economic sunshine, and has never had to deal with any adversity whatsoever, Yet they keep dishonestly pushing the line that it’s all their doing.
It seems, though, that the public is waking up. If I’m reading things correctly, the latest “big bang” tax cuts by the government were poorly received because they weren’t going on services. Maybe this time the electorate has had enough.
I really hope Rudd hammers this point home at every opportunity. Don’t even bother to match the coalition’s tax cuts, but instead come up with a more modest scheme, then spend the rest on the big three: health, water and education.
Governments should deliver for the people. Delivering tax cuts is a cop out which says we have no idea how to improve services so we are leaving it up to you joe citizen.
Try for Rudd to get this soundbite out: “The Howard era is over.” Set it up so that within three weeks, the press will be talking about an ALP government as a fait accompli. Change the topic: the Liberals can make up ground on the economy. Change the subject, ever so slightly, or at least drag Costello in front of the cameras more – a way of saying “this is your new Prime Minister, whaddya think?” Push the Libs off message a bit. Put them on the grill on an ALP strong subject.
Political Pilgrim Of The Month issues “grab” from byway’s edge.
“I await the narrowing.”
Say g’day to Godot while you’re there, Nozzie. And stay away from garbage bins.
Health, education and water are the three big issues.
All of been neglected for the past 11 years and the libs response is hurried back of the envelope plans.
We have seen medical costs for the ordinary bloke go thru the roof and Howards response is to throw money at one hospital in Tassie. The local boards for Hospitals are a joke and a worry. Can a local board ban procedures they disagree with due to religous views, such as family planning, contraception, abortion, blood transfusions, can a local board Work Choices the staff?
Education also means training, more doctors fro hospitals and skilled staff for our industries educated in Australia instead of importing unkown 457 visa workers.
Water is more than a $10 billion uncosted plan drawn up overnight, the states have been asking for years for a national plan and assistance for pipelines and money to buy out large irrigators.
You can’t fix 11 years of neglect in a 6 week campaign, the $34 billlion in tax cuts just emphasises how much the libs have ripped out of the system.
AnthonyL @ 5:
To leave the provision of services up to ‘Joe Citizen’ is current Liberal form. They are a bunch of market fundamentalists and economic libertarians – especially Minchin and Costello. If they had their way we would have an entirely deregulated labour and market. If you want good education – you pay for it. Good health? You pay for it. Provision of utilities such as phone and electricity? Well if you want good service, you will have to pay extra for it. Heck, if the road outside your front door needs fixing, set up your own tolls so your local community can fix it. (OK, we’re not quite at the point of having locals set up toll roads, but seeing the funding issues around the Old Pacific Hwy collapse at Somersby where 5 people died earlier this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned up.)
Our Australian libertarians are not quite as rabid as the ultra-individualistic American types, but we have our share of them in the Libs. It’s all about I, me and my – that’s why they prefer giving out tax cuts, that way you can spend it on your health or education, but even better, go out and spend it on mindless consumer goods to help our economy keep booming.
Geez I am sick of these guys.
re tax cuts
will the Australian voters be silly enough to be bribed by this? I think not
when inflation & interest rates rise more are people really in front
with a small tax cut.
what about the money that was not spent on necessary social & infrastructure needs?
Morning news shows are all running with the figures for the economy and industrial relations.
None of the other stats are getting a look in, which makes it seem like LNP isn’t doing too badly.
Its only when you see that there are 8 issues and LNP are ahead in only 2 that you think….”oh”
Arbie Jay says
“Health, education and water are the three big issues”
I beg to differ. Not according to the recent special Morgan poll on issues most concerning voters.
Check it out, tell me what you think
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4223/
Scotty @4, FWIW the Feds don’t receive any of the GST funding (except insofar as to cover their admin costs in collecting it). However, GST is falling as a proportion of GDP, whereas company tax (which the Feds DO got) is growing as a proportion of GDP.
The States abolished a bunch of their taxes in return for receiving the GST revenue. Initially this left a shortfall, which the Feds made up (”Budget Balancing Assistance”). Currently, the GST now exceeds the value of those State taxes, at least in nominal terms (not sure about real terms). However, this isn’t the only funding that the Feds transfer to the States – the States also receive funding through Specific Purpose Payment arrangements, which generally involve an agreement for the Feds to provide “tied” funding in certain policy areas. SPP negotiations are always acrimonious, and usually involve onerous conditions placed on the States in order to get matched funding.
The biggest SPP is the Australian Health Care Agreement, which is a big source of health funding for the States. This is the health agreement that Tony Abbott has, for several months, refused to renew – on the grounds that he was too busy (read: wanted the whip-hand in an election environment).
The Feds’ contributions under SPP arrangements have, as highlighted in the last week, been declining as a proportion of the total over the last 5+ years, and given the chronic problems faced in the health and education systems at the moment – Australians have every reason to be outraged that the Feds engage in this underfunding for political reasons.
Unfortunately, the average Joe doesn’t realise all of the argy bargy that goes on, they just see the likes of Tony Abbott on the nightly news saying “We’ve given the States $XX billion, and look how bad things are. Obviously State Labor governments are mismanaging things!”
Fiztig @ 9
Nice speech. Going on the general response to Howard’s tax-cut bribe, it seems more and more Australians share your view.
Squiggle
Morgan is interesting in that it talks about concerns after the election wereas the current Australian poll talks about issues concerning voters, slight distinction.
Australian appears to what are the major issues and who do you think will handle them best, whilst Morgan appears to be asking if that party is elected what issues are you concerned about them handling.
Actually the 2 results may be same, ie Australian – 80% of voters concerned about health and think labor can handle it better than the libs whilst Morgan – 10% concerned about how labor will handle health when they are elected.
I may be wrong but I think you will find that tax cuts would not be eaten up by interest rate rises, it really depends on several factors.
The objective of raising interest rates is to reduce the amount of money in the economy and the speed of its movement through the economy.
If more money is put into the economy through tax cuts, an interest rate rise would only be targeted to address the new money.
I suspect the following will occur in the next three years regardless of who is in power.
The high dollar will reduce exports, and although people keep harping on about mining, it is really only a small part of our exports.
Reduced exports will lead to lower employment.
Lower employment will lead to less wage pressure.
The alternative is the dollar falls
This leads to increased prices of things like oil
The reserve bank can take two views of this
1)SIMPLY=raise interest rates because inflation is high
2)COMPLEX=does the increased price and flow of money overseas act in the same way as a rate increase would.
Hi Arbie jay,
I kind of agree, the only thing missing from the Australian/newspoll stats is a sense of which issues are most important.
Morgan’s approach is interesting though, its like asking someone to think ahead to after they have voted, and to nominate what worries them most about the results of their vote.
Off to work now
The letters in the GG today are skewed towards the government. One writer typifies the selfish attitude that Howard promotes through ‘choice’. He says that those who want infrastructure etc can directly donate some of their tax cut towards that. How ridiculous – but Howard is saying exactly that right now across a humber of issues. It’s bread and circuses.
Silly season has started so early.
All of the changes in support on the eight key issues were within the margin of error since the last poll.
And of more concern to the coalition, the biggest swings since October last year (pre-Rudd) have been to the ALP in the areas of health (up four points altogether), education (16 points), economy (eight points), welfare (10 points) and national security (eight points).
In 12 months, the ALP has only lost ground on IR, eight points.
Yes Coota, but that is the area which so many people have been saying will certainly cost the government at this election.
No point in releasing any policy in Perth for the next few days – unless it it is about Ben Cousins. Law and order for footballers is the only issue that will fly here for the next week.
LTEP – you’re right, yet dont forget the govt has had the aqdvantage of so many IR ads nin the lead up. Now we’re in the campaign both sides have some aprity on this issue, with the ACTU no doubt contributing as well.
The AUD is only high against the USD.
Try looking at AUD vs EUR next time. It shows that the current rate of A$1 buying 63 Euro cents is on the high side of average over the past few years but nothing to write home about. Or blog about for that matter.
I think “If Only” is right. Howard must be thinking that exact thing right now…
appalling typos on my part.
Lose the election please – yep, you’re a stooge. I’m convinced now.
Hmm, I just found out something rather disturbing.
The Commonwealth Treasury yesterday released their Mid Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) publication, which factored in the *Government’s* announced $34bn tax cuts. What this means is that those tax cuts are *Government* policy, not an election promise.
This means that Rudd can’t spend that $34bn on anything else without winding back, as a Budget saving, the tax cuts that the electorate are now *entitled to*. Pretty poor practice on the part of Commonwealth Treasury, since MYEFO has been released after only 3 months of the year (ie not MID year), and very devious on the part of Costello et al.
B4st4rds.
LTEP/Burgey
I’d suggest part of the reason that national polls don’t bring out workchoices as a major issue is that the YRAW campaign is directed at 23 marginal seats.
I’ve been volunteering in Eden Monaro and their is a very positive vibe around the awareness of people about their rights under workchoices and that this will change votes.
And – the only reason the $A is high at present is because our interest rates are higher than many other countries so money comes here. Next Wed is the day to watch for the ABS inflation figures for Sep qtr. If the figure is much above .8, then the RBA will certainly act on 6 Nov. If the inflation figure is highish and the RBA doesn’t act, then they will be seen as acting politically. Glenn Stevens is a very straight guy – he wouldn’t care about Howard’s re-election chances.
Yes Yo Ho Ho, I have to agree with you on Eden Monaro at least, I’ve seen the YRAW very active in the electorate, have signed a few petitions etc.
I just hope they’re working hard in the more Liberal areas of the seat, Jerrabomberra, Cooma, Bega etc.
As to Gary Bruce, someone can’t put forward their idea that WC isn’t a driving force for the ALP without getting called a stooge? Elections are rarely, if ever, decided on a matter of policy (at least positively). This election will be no different. But go ahead… think of me as a stooge if it’ll make a difference to your life.
Lose the election please – “Yes Coota, but that is the area which so many people have been saying will certainly cost the government at this election.” And it still is. Labor holds a 13 percent lead according to Newspoll. The Libs are in the low 30’s on this, so even some of their own supporters think Labor will do a better job.
I’m not at all phased by these numbers. When you think about it these issues polls have shown these types of preferences all year and yet Labor has maintained a very healthy lead. I don’t believe this will change now.
The radio on the north coast of NSW was full of comments saying we need money spent on health, education and infrastructure. There was barely a single comment in favour of tax cuts.
Labor supporters should not despair about the current situation.
No doubt Kevin Rudd and co are digesting public response to the tax cuts as well as looking over the figures from Treasury.
John Howard did the same in 96.
Labor will likely opt for a mixture of tax cuts for the lower and middle, raising the tax-free threshold higher than the Coalition plus billions for infrastructure. They would then satisfy the public demand for better infrastructure and investment at the same time helping the genuine battlers.
They may also come in with something like tax deductibility for interest payments, up to a limit, for first home buyers mortgages and fiddle with negative gearing – eg. restrict it to no more than two or three properties.
Of course the conservative media will bag Kevin Rudd and the Labor party.
Rupert Murdoch is after all an arch-capitalist and employs hard right editors. He had no effect whatsoever on the NSW state election.
It grieves me that this election has been simplified in the media as just a duel between the old John Howard and the new Kevin Rudd.
It is a very significant election in terms of where Australia is heading.
It is so much more than a joust between two male bulls.
We are down the end of John Howard’s dry gully with nothing in sight.
We have had eleven and a half years of hard right conservative.
government. Look where it has got us – a diminished international reputation as a result of our Iraq invasion and fawning over George W Bush, a squandering of the proceeds of the minerals boom, a gigantic trading debt and a significant loss of civil liberties. No progress has been made to deal with the most important issue of our time – global warming and its devastating consequences. Our health and education infrastructure are in ruins and inflation is about to break out as a result of John Howard’s profligacy.
What we need is a sea change. Our current government led by John Howard is truly a government of the 20th century. It has not renewed itself.
This election is not just about two men. It’s about whether we move forward as a nation or we stay stuck in the old conservative past.
It’s out most important election in thirty years.
LTEP – I think it has to do with your level of pessimism. You’re pessimistic to the point of tantamount support
Personally, I feel like giving LTEP a big hug and saying “It will be alright mate !”
Gary, further to that argument, if you look back historically you’ll see roughly the same issues going to each party at about the same percentage. Labor is always rated better with Health, Industrial Relations etc. The Coalition is always rated better with the Economy.
Issues polls are basically completely irrelevant as people revert to stereotypes on the parties, regardless of the party’s performance in the area. The more important figures are the primary vote, and I’d say other questions, such as who you trust more. On both of these, the ALP has been polling well in front. We’ll see if that continues to election day.
The ‘howard polls well’ headline is already gone from the front of the news.com.au website – replaced with the ‘Tax Cuts for the rich’ message.
Delightful.
RGee, of course I don’t support the Coalition. I can’t think of one thing they’ve done right in 11 years. Then again, I don’t know anyone who’s voted for them since 1996 (when just about everyone I know voted for them), so I can consider my anecdotal evidence pretty moot.
I’m just trying to get into the psyche of the public who has returned this government on 3 occasions, twice resoundingly. To do this, I have to put myself into a frame of mind alien to my own, which is what I think the ALP tacticians should be doing. Plan for the worst and hopefully get the best result.
Lose the election – I’m sorry if I’ve wrongly accused you of being a stooge but if you are a very negative ALP supporter I must say I personally find your negativity off putting because I don’t think it is based on the facts at hand. If I felt you had a good case I would say so but having someone wishing the ALP would win then constantly down playing their chances on flimsy evidence is not my idea political fun. Stop jumping at shadows. That’s all I’m trying to say.
LTEP – “Issues polls are basically completely irrelevant as people revert to stereotypes on the parties, regardless of the party’s performance in the area. The more important figures are the primary vote, and I’d say other questions, such as who you trust more. On both of these, the ALP has been polling well in front. We’ll see if that continues to election day.”
Now you’re talking and I agree with you 100%. That is why I believe nothing much will change over the campaign. You have made my case. I don’t believe this government is trusted anymore. The Libs have tried the throwing of money around – nothing has changed over the year. They’ve dog whistled – nothing has changed over the year. What does change is the primary vote when IR becomes the centre of attention – Labor’s vote goes up and that issue is yet to take off again. It will.
From comments here and yesterday, the ’shock and awe’ tax policy of the Libs seems to have dented the morale of Labor supporters. But it’s really just the media reaction, not the view of voters which is what counts. Some journos in the GG are criticising Labor for not having their tax policy ready which is facile considering the Opposition didn’t have the Treasury information that Costello had. We’re only in Day 4 and there is a long way to go. Newspoll next Monday should be a good indicator. BTW, last night I saw the replay of the Howard gaffe on ACA on Mon, his grunt and pi–ed off expression at the end of the I/V was not nice, look of an angry old man.
Gary, I think that LTEP is just more of a realist than a lot of the other ALP supporters on here.
Being a natural pessimist myself, I understand where he’s coming from. And the ‘head in the sand’ downright chirpy optimism one sees on sites like this can be just as off putting to those of a more negative countenance!
I wrote this piece three months ago when this drivel was trotted out then.
http://forums.ozelection2007.info/viewtopic.php?id=148
Fear not comrades, there will be the dead cat bounce in the polls next week and they will all cream themselves, but that’s all it will be. The following poll will be back to 55/45. the election 53/47
I see Mr Shanahan over at the Govt Gazette is at it again. How about this little gem: “The Coalition has stretched its commanding lead over Labor on the key vote-changing issues of the economy and national security.”
Labor’s commanding lead on everything else is described as merely “comfortable”, with nary a mention of “vote-changing.”
Poor Dennis. Custer had a “commanding lead” over the Indians in the key “battle-determining” areas of surprise and mobility too, but he still got creamed. It could have had something to do with the Indians’ “comfortable” 50 or 60-to-one lead in manpower, weaponry and combat effectiveness.
Keep bugling Garryowen for the Colonel by all means Dennis, but if you want to hang onto my scalp, I wouldn’t ride down into that valley with him, if I was you.
I will go out on a limb here, and say that the next Newspoll will be 57-43. I think that people will see through the tax cuts as a vote-buying exercise and will make their views known. Watch the panic spread through Liberal ranks then!
Evan – good post! Yes, Dennis is pathetic as he scrabbles among the poll figures trying to find a Howard gem among the dross.
Sinic – quite possible BUT – Labor will have to put out some other attarctive policies in the next few days.
Look, we can’t tell how things have been going in this campaign until the first opinion poll taken after the tax cuts come out. Assuming it takes 3 days to build a proper sample, the earliest we can expect one out is tomorrow (no idea if this will happen, but hopefully it does).
I have to say I’m annoyed at The Oz’s editorial today, criticising Labor for not releasing their tax policy. They even have the nerve to suggest that Labor may not have had a tax policy prior to the government’s tax cuts, which (I’m sorry) is a complete joke – Labor have been on record for weeks saying that they have a tax policy and they’re waiting for the appropriate time to release it.
As for the dramatic fall for Labor’s national security ratings, I give you one word for an explanation:
McLelland
Is agree wholeheartedly with #39 when he says: “he ’shock and awe’ tax policy of the Libs seems to have dented the morale of Labor supporters.”
I think maybe too many of us have been reading the GG. Its coverage so far has been incredibly biased with everything that happens being spun as the Coalition on its way back.
I think they are channeling Crosby -Textor and trying their best to create and build a sense that the coalition will come from behind and win. They only have 6 weeks so their coverage with that theme has to be intense.
The likes of Janet and Dennis are in full flight. Its painful to watch, but you have to step back a little and try and keep a balanced perspective. Really, only one thing of note has happened so far in the campaign. Libs have announced $34 billion in bribes. Its such a major announcement that nothing else will get traction until there are polls out at the end of this week, and then any movement / not-movement in the polls will be the story.
The debate i think will be a non-issue. JWH turning up and speaking to 200 hand picked LNP supporters?? Well, i think talking may not be the only thing he does to himself at the moment……
It will be interesting to see how KR plays this. I hope he flat out refuses to turn up under Rattus’s rules and then hammer him for cowardice.
Or, the ALP releases its tax policy on Sunday 1 hour before the debate is due to start, and media attention gets firmly diverted from a little git doing himself on stage alone, to something of substance to the actual campaign.
People say its early days in the campaign. Bollocks, its been on since January, and the ALP have been winning this campaign convincingly so far. 5 1/2 more weeks is a long time in politics people and the Coalition are the ones in deep deep manure.
Yes, imacca, let us all take solace from the fact that The Oz is the least read of the daily newspapers and that all the other dailies seem to be more interested in Ben Cousins than the Newspoll…
imacca wrote: “I hope he flat out refuses to turn up under Rattus’s rules and then hammer him for cowardice.”
According to Crikey, Penny Wong has said “Instead, he’ll duck this debate in favour of three others.” The “he” is Kevin Rudd.
I live in Mitchell (as safe a lib seat as there is) and received a letter from Alex Hawke yesterday. It was the usual experience vs unions rubbish, 70% union bosses, $1 trillion dollar economy but he also tacked on that if he was elected he would:
1. Crack down on hoons and vandals so local families can live in safe and secure neighbourhoods (yeah, all those hoons at Hillsong and at the Piazza at Castle Hill!!)
2. Improve local school facilities and services so our children can etc. etc. ( a state function me thinks)
3. Make local roads safer by IDing required upgrades and fixing local blackspots (a council and state function as well, I thought).
Then he encloses as a post-script a postal vote form.
Now, I read yesterday a few lib candidates were sending these things around, but in Mitchell? And hitting on issues like these? Is this a nationwide postal campaign which just lists the same issues everywhere?
Just seems a bit strange to me – why would they be hitting those points?
Rudd not turning up for Howard’s debate on Sunday would be very risky so Rudd will be there. Rudd will cream Howard as the rodent is not a good debater (both Beazley and Latham beat him). Rudd can still accuse Howard of cowardice by continuing to call for a second or third debate during the campaign. BTW, I think the ‘worm’ is going to trouble Howard. People want to see it during the debate, so Howard will look arrogant if he refuses to have it.
Burgey, the Liberal Party strategists have highlighted that at this election they will be running local campaigns on top of the national campaign. This is why we’re getting flushed with letters explaining the local members’ concerned about graffiti and ‘hoons’.
They’re hoping people forget they’re not areas of federal responsibility and that individual members have next to no control over these issues in any case. To me, it seems lame, but obviously C/T have advised them to run with this.
These headlines by the News Limited papers and the approach by the Coalition are designed to panic the ALP. If you read below the headlines there is nothing in it. If you look at the numbers Newspoll and Morgan Poll (issues poll) are very good for the ALP.
It appears that the tactics are working on a few ALP supporters here. However, Kevin and his supporters have taken their time on nearly every issue that has been thrown at them this year and come out on top. This little period will be no exception.
The new tax policy won’t do much more than give some confidence to those who were already planning to vote for the coalition. IMHO, it is not much of a vote changer.
And the reason for this is that the hype created in the media about it simply fails to match the ACTUAL amount of pork. The most common reaction that I am hearing, and I have been holidaying on the NSW north coast and now back down here in Melbourne where I live, is that receiving twenty or thirty dollars more per week is virtually pointless as it will probably be eaten up by increasing costs of living and higher interest rates by the time it all comes fully into effect in a few years time. In short, people don’t think it will help them much at all.
The media response has been overdone, and I actually suspect that a LOT of Australians realise this. People do want tax cuts. But they want BIG cuts that make an appreciable difference to their standard of living, especially during an era where the cost of living seems to be going up so rapidly.
So, just like the tax cuts in the May budget, when the media also overcooked their positive response, most voters will be cynical.
But one additional thing to come out of this is that the disconnect between Howard’s actual policy and the media hype around it might actually serve to further highlight the pro-Howard bias in much of the media that has already become widely known around many segments of the population. This will further increase the level of cynicism about reports of Howard, where anything positive is quickly dismissed, which I suspect has been happening all year anyway.
New Headline:”Australian Voters Give Fourth Estate The Bird.”
Admittedly, Labor have an “unfair” advantage / edge over Coalition when releasing their tax plan after Coalition
I think Howard is panicked now. He pushed so hard to force Labor rushing out a “premature” tax plan.
Labor will take time to study Howard tax plan and will put forward their version, presumably / expected to be superior to Howard’s.
Until that time, we will see Howard and Costello jump up and down like hell
The people who are criticising the tax cut proposal are the same people who’ll denigrate the government as the highest taxing in history.
Make up your mind. The hypocrisy is astonishing.
Burgey post 51 -
I live in Boothby in Adelaide and received similar sh&t from Andrew Southcott the sitting Liberal member. Basically mine sounds the same as what you received…however there was one about securing water supply for families (buggar people who aren’t in families -they can dehydrate) then the next 2 were improving local roads and crackdown on local hoons by installing CCTV cameras in “local crime hotspots” so “families” can live free from fear…again stuff those who aren’t in a family they can be bashed to death!!!! Plus all the trash about unions & inexperience. This is from a local member who is utterly useless…
Fire Maker 54
You beat me to it. The worst thing Labor and its supporters can do now is panic.
rcandelori,
Not many people are criticising the tax cuts themselves (at least, I’m not). What we’re criticising is Howard + Costello + half the MSM jumping up and down demanding Rudd release his tax policy immediately, as if the Coalition had a god-given right to tell Labor when they have to release their policies.
For the record, I think the tax cuts are good, but they should have focussed more on cutting company tax and providing incentives for R+D to take place in Australia.
“These headlines by the News Limited papers and the approach by the Coalition are designed to panic the ALP. ”
Firemaker, I agree. It is an attempt to create momentum for the coalition and to give Labor the jitters, but the hype is already sounding hollow. With just one bad poll for Howard, the whole exercise simply collapses.
I’m not suggesting they have a god-given right to demand ALP policies be released immediately, but one has to wonder why something as essential as tax policy, has taken over 10 months to release. The public are entitled to know, they’ve heard enough dodging from Rudd – we’re at the business end of the election cycle now. Substance counts, and so far, the Coalition has the runs on the board.
rcandelori,
Simple reason – the government has had access to the updated budget figures for weeks now and so could fine-tune their tax policy to fit accordingly. Labor has had access to these updated numbers for 2 days. It would have been irresponsible for them (and the Coalition would have said so) to release their tax policy before these numbers came out.
I don’t think it would be unfair for Labor to spend a couple more days analysing these numbers before releasing their tax policy, would you?
Howard in 1996 did not release his tax policy until three weeks into the election campaign. He bolted in.
The Age Polls:
ALP land package
Do you think Labor’s housing plan is a vote-winner?
Yes – 71%
No – 29%
Tax cuts : Will Peter Costello’s announcement of tax cuts worth $34 billion change your vote?
Yes – 15%
No – 85%
Total Votes: 4023 Poll date: 15/10/07
http://www.theage.com.au/polls/results.html
It is the same old story people are no longer listening to John Howard even if he comes up with a good policy.
Howards time is past the public are over him.
Does anyone seriously think all the voters out there are chomping at the bit to hear about tax policy. Talk about boring.
Tax cuts are good headlines, but noone really cares about the detail.
AM, compare those results to the results on the news.com.au website.
Online polls are not to be believed.
I don’t know whether someone has mentioned this already, but at the end of the Today Show on Ch. 9 this morning, they gave the results of their morning poll on whether the worm should be used in the debate. The poll was a narrow win for the pro-wormers.
Anyway, the poll would be irrelevant EXCEPT they said that on the basis of that poll the station manager (sorry, forgot his official title) had decided that they will be using the worm during Sunday’s debate.
Can the PM stop them using it if they aren’t the “official” broadcaster (which is presumably Sky for this debate)?
Well I don’t think you can be more blatant in electioneering for the Government than that. It has been apparent Labor has had something because they have been refering to what they intend in it. YET the editorial prefers to try and denigrate Labor so it can push up Howard – and they invent their own truth. Mitchell ought to be ashamed of himself. I think after this election the GG needs to be publically bought to account. These are some of the other things that need to be fixed in this country.
Assuming (as Shanahan does) that people are lying when they list economy and national security down the order of saliency, the best that could have been spun out of this poll is that small to modest changes in them had no effect on voting intentions.
One explanation for this is that the polls don’t measure intensity either – people might think neither party has much control over economy and external risks, or have v.similar policies. But when asked for an answer by a polite sounding stranger, the non-partisan will go with the stereotypical answer. Similarly on the environment/water, where Labor’s lead is thin, though in truth much larger given the Greens flow on to Labor ahead of the Coalition.
63 – rcandelori and others here should take a cold shower. Labor couldn’t put out a tax policy at the same time as the Libs as Labor aren’t the government (yet). Costello had access to the current budget figures from Traeasury, Labor did not. rudd will presnt his tax policy when he has (responsibly) assessed the budget figures. Who’s panicking? Howard, I’d say. Labor is sitting with a 12% lead in the polls at the start of an election campaign.
Whether Rudd releases a tax policy now, next week, or the week after is immaterial. It will be released in the next few weeks. So, who the hell cares, other than Howard, Costello, and rcandelori?
Personally, I’m quite content watching the two-headed Prime Ministerial monster jumping up and down trying to bully Rudd into a corner. It just reinforces the impression of Howard as mean and tricky…
I got exactly the same blurb letter in Higgins about the CCTV rubish. Maybe all the new cameras can be linked up to Canbera so the prime minister cankeep an eye on everyone. They could install speakers too. You could hear (in a Howard voice) “Hey cut that out, you’ve been a bad citizen, go to room 101 Winston”.
Macaroni, they are the highest taxing government in history 28% of GDP, it is a fact, and irelevant if we like it or not.
rcandelori – Why would they? It plays into Howard’s hands if they do, they look panicked and possibly release a half baked policy. Strategically, the right thing to do is hold out. Rudd has tapped into an anti-politician mood, and the longer Howard and Costello jump around demanding a tax policy the sillier the two of them will look.
Fairfax papers are not as bias as News Com papers and so, are more reliable.
I thought I was the eternal Labor pessimist: LTEP has stolen my thunder.
I wouldn’t even piss on the Government Gazette these days. It’s nothing more than a propoganda sheet for the Rodent. Uncle Rupert obviously has put the call out to back the Howard government, and the likes of the editorial staff and Shanahan are happily complying.
The next lot of polls will tell the story. If there’s no swing back to the government, I suspect a lot of Liberals will be in a panic.
Rudd and Labor have to hold their nerve, don’t dance to Howard/Smirky’s tune, put out the tax policy when they are good and ready. And, if Rudd makes a virtue of spending more of the 34 billion on health/education/infastructure spending/nation building, that’ll hold him in good stead.
Surely it will be possible to set up a “worm” via the internet to measure people’s reaction to how the debaters go, no-matter what Howard wants???
swing lowe,
They’ve had access to budget figures for months, even if they are not the absolute latest figures.
In any event, we haven’t heard the philosophy of the policy –> whether it believes in tax cuts for all, or only for the poor, or whatever.
In the end, after 10 months, Rudd is being a little prescious when he asks for more time whilst labelling the government arrogant and out of touch. The only people being arrogant and out of touch is the ALP.
And when did Howard release his tax policy in 1996? At a time that suited him, which from memory was two seeks before polling day. This is just childish political point-scoring. I don’t blame Howard for doing it, he’s just playing the political game. I do blame the Murdoch press for uncritically echoing Howard’s line, which shows gross political bias (not surprising really)
For all you dopey Liberals. How come, if Howard and Costello knew of the true state of the economy, the release of this current tax package, why wasn’t it done back at the budget? The budget is the most appropriate time for a tax package and they could have done it then – but didn’t.
“rcandelori” are you from Crosby and Textor?
Its just that you sound like them.
And Rudd hasn’t “asked for more time.” Don’t tell lies. He has says he will release his tax policy when he decides to release it.
Shanahan and the Oz are just plain shameless!
The newspoll figures rated issues in the order of importance determined by surveyed voters. Of the nine issues, Health/Medicare, Water planning, Education and the Environment comprised the top four. On those top four issues, Labor lead the coalition by 14,4,20 and 14 points respectively. Despite these FACTS, the Australian insists that the P.Ms stocks are on the rise – next week’s special investigation by the Australian……..”Can a full head of hair confuse decision-making, putting our great nation at risk of terrorist attack?” A panel of emininently bald Australians conservatives discuss the powerful decision-making advantage held by our shiny-headed P.M.
Recent surveys indicate that Australians are concerned about a range of issues impacting their children’s future – we here at The Australian understand these concerns which is why we have concluded that we will decide which issues are of concern to Australian voters and the manner in which those concerns are expressed.
“even if they are not the absolute latest figures.” So their modelling would be wrong? Riiiiight…
Next issue please.
You can’t release a tax policy of any note unless you have the up to date figures and Labor has only just received them. They will release their policy when they are good and ready. nothing says they have to do otherwise.
As for the nervous nellies and negative thinkers, by all means worry yourselves sick but at least do it on factual well thought out evidence rather than the flimsy arguments presented here.
The GG has been running its anti Labor campaign all year and we know how influentila that has been. For heaven sake be like the vast majority of the reading public and don’t read the bloody thing.
rcandelori,
Rudd’s philosophy for his policy is outlined here:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600616-5013871,00.html
And for the rest of you, I urge you all to take part in this survey, so The Oz may understand that not everyone in this country are Coalition-voters:
http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=13&lang=en
The polls are going to all over the place for the next few weeks.
Yes the next Newspoll might have ALP 54 to Coalition 46 but the next after that could well be 56-44 or even 57-43. Check out how the polls went in previous times just before the election. They yo-yoed up and down. Chances are the final result will be close but more likely 52.5 ALP to 47.5% Coalition than the other way around.
influential
No. 82
Why is it that because someone shows a modicum of difference in terms of their political views, they are accused as some sort of stooge for the Liberal party?
The way all of you expound such a nauseating level of love for Rudd, can hardly be labelled fair and balanced. The hypocrisy and double standards continue.
rcandelori
A bit better than you’re posting in the other thread, but still…
The government has plenty of substance, you’re right.
12 years of substance.
2-3 days of debatable substance cannot counter what is already on the table.
If both sides started from the same starting point – your point might be arguable, but turning fundamentalist with 6 weeks to go?
Given the public reaction yesterday, and the reaction to the last (bigger) tax cut, why do you think tax policy is essential?
Given the only data released comparing pre and post AWA wages please compare and contrast the monetary values with those proposed in the tax cuts?
rcandelori , saurely economic vandals can be the Highest Taxing Government in the History of Australia and give unfair tax cuts biased to the rich at the same time.
LOL. An internet worm? Don’t let one of those onto your computer, or it will screw up more than just your opinions.
Seriously though, I would have thought that Ch 9 could have their own “audience” watching with the worm. I suspect the PM only has control over what happens in the debating hall, and he can stipulate that there be no worm machines. But I can’t see that he would be able to make rules about how individual stations broadcast it… so if they want to set up their own worm, why not?
Plus, Channel 9 is probably pretty annoyed that they got shafted for Sky TV this time around. I suspect they’ll do their best to get a worm up and running just to piss off Howard. It will deliver better ratings too… I know which station I’ll be watching if one has the worm and another doesn’t.
PM reported last night that Labor had picked up its 200 tickets for Sunday’s debate. Sounds to me like they are going despite the bravado for last nights TV.
If they are going to the debate they wont be going without a tax policy in place. Of course JWH didnt release his tax policy in 1996 – he was a known commodity and didnt need to. KR is liked as is shown by the polls but he does need to fill in a few gaps – and he has made an issue of his own economic credibility. It will be very damaging for him if he blows the tax policy debate.
I would love to be a fly on the wall in KR central. Which way does he jump? He should have just come out and matched them immediately – if he lets it linger it just gives JWH traction and he looks silly if he takes 2 weeks to say – me too.
Far be it for me to advise all those clever people in Rudd’s office but here are a couple of election winners. First, promise to reduce HECS – this will win the Gen Y vote and their boomer parents vote too. Second, make child care costs tax deductable – this is the hot button issue for ‘working families’.
As I suspected, the tax cuts have slipped out of the news very rapidly… not much bang for buck at all for 34 billion dollars.
If the Libs are hoping for a jump in the opinion polls as a result of this I really don’t think it’s going to happen. I’m predicting the next Newspoll will be the same as all the others which have gone before: 55+ for Labor.
The poll is misleading. Even though it has IR as the lowest concern at 49% it is the issue most likely to affect votes at the end of the day simply because of the draconian nature of WorkChoices and its real impact on people [not just imagined].
The Morgan poll I think is much more revealing as it points to the issues that people genuinely feel concern about. After the election, when people are in power and can do things – what really worries you? 21% say LNP on IR AND 23% say Labor on the Economy. Doesn’t seem like a very high level of concern on these issues and, they balance out.
People when it comes down to it are not really concerned so much about Labor and the economy. They say the Govt is better at it, not that Labor can’t hack it. The same goes with Security. Really, Labor still needs to inform the public about the source of our economic prosperity – it will work. People will listen because they can see the effects right now – China, resources boome etc – it all falls into place.
The only two areas where the Govt is ahead are the ones caused by encumbancy. That it is behind in all other areas should be disturbing as it is a commentary/report card on their performance to date. The voters are saying the Govt hasn’t been good at these things and, probably Labor would be better.
Sorry, not that kind of worm!
Nope, Howard has insisted that in order to be provided with a feed of the debate, broadcasters have to agree to not to set up any kind of audience reaction-measuring system (”worm”)
rcandelor – if you don’t like it here …..
rcandelori:
Your are welcome to your opinion, but it is a load of rubbish and doesnt stand up to scrutiny.
Steve,
The same rubbish about the tax cuts being unfair is churned out every time there’s a tax cut.
The fact is that the lowest income earners pay the least amount of tax, so of course the dollar-per-week figure is going to be lower. In any event, people in the highest tax bracket work just as much, have families like everyone else and pay tens of thousands of their income in tax, so I believe they are just as entitled to tax cuts as anyone else.
Furthermore, according to Ross Gittins in today’s SMH, he says that the cuts are roughly equal on a cents-in-the-dollar analysis. http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/tax-cuts-are-a-pms-best-friend/2007/10/16/1192300767464.html
No. 100
AM, you’re posts hardly demonstrate authority. The extent of your infantile argument is accusing people of being stooges.
I haven’t heard one person talk about the tax cuts. Rcandleori you still haven’t explained why this will have an impact when the Budget tax cuts didn’t.
Rcandelori, answer the question please: when did Howard release his tax policy in 1996?
rcandelori,
Please enlighten me on whether Howard released his tax policy early on in the 1996 campaign. I distinctly recall that it was released in the third week. Howard is trying this desperate strategy in the hopes of Rudd releasing an incomplete policy. Of course, it is expected that Howard would try and bully the opposition in this way: the stakes are very high (think political irrelevency). Rudd is smart to hold out: it is obviously irking the Coalition, their supporters, and Young Liberals everywhere. If the response on talkback radio is anything to go by, the tax cuts are bing seen as a bribe and nothing more by the majority. Next week’s polls will be insightful.
rcandelori – if you want to participate, then be prepared to cop some flak.
Ok, it seems that we’re doing what we always do – gang up on the conservative blogger, which inevitably ends up with he or she leaving this site and we end up having our daily love-in, waiting for ESJ and Glen to pop up…
We shouldn’t insult rcandelori’s intelligence, but seriously dude, you can’t come up with unsubstantiated statements without back up…
Howard’s 1996 strategy is immaterial. We are in 2007. Times have changed.
Anyone got a date for the next major poll release? (and no smart responses like, “yeah, I’m taking my mate’s sister to the movies and we’ll read it there.”)
I answered the questionnaire at the Australian website. My answer to the question on why I would vote Labor was “Sticking it up The Australian.” I suggest others answer the same way.
1 Lose the election please. Someone obviously in complete denial. Saying it is, won’t make it so.
“Howard’s 1996 strategy is immaterial. We are in 2007. Times have changed.” Wrong, fail, reveal yourself as a lying Liberal stooge. End of debate. Next please.
Swing Lowe,
That is the approach of all online forums towards conservatives. Apparently it is a heinous act to have a difference of opinion.
The fact is, most people’s statements here are unsubstantiated suckups to Labor. I’d prefer a debate on the substance.
Sadly “Glen’s” appearances will be less over the coming weeks, the Senator has some special projects for him.
Perth@21
I think Ben C should have got dressed before he got arrested. But then again maybe this is a way of the WA Police improving their image “Look at the std of criminal we arrest, hot aren’t they”
rcandelori,
This, unfortunately, is the type of unsubstantiated rubbish that’s going to cop you some flak on this blog. If you are going to say something like this, explain why (i.e, why have things changed so much over the past 11 years that the timing of the release of tax policy by the Opposition is now so different?)
Re 114
You obviously dont know your own Liberal Party, no one is allowed to have an opinion that is different to theirs.
Unsubstantiated? Do you deny that you are a Young Liberal, rcandelori? I distinctly recall that you admitted to it on the old insidepolitics forums when they still existed. So when people are accusing you of being a stooge, they are telling the truth. If I am wrong, please let me know.
No. 113
AM, of course they don’t make any sense to you. How inconvenient.
We’re yet to here anything resembling a substantive argument from you.
rcandelori – if times have changed, why does Howard heep mentioning Labor’s 17% interest rates from 1989? as he did just yesterday.
rcandelori – if times have changed, why does Howard keep mentioning Labor’s 17% interest rates from 1989? – as he did just yesterday.
“I’d prefer a debate on the substance.” – So provide some evidence instead of recycling Liberal Party lines.
ESJ — Well, I’m glad you’re not employed as a Labor strategist then! If Rudd has come out immediately and matched the cuts… you can’t get more “me too” than that surely. That would be asking for it IMO.
They will wait a bit and then come out with a different package. Sadly I don’t think it will be dramatically different, but enough so that it doesn’t look the same as the Libs. Given the debate is this weekend, it may be that they will release their tax policy on Saturday.
# 94 – Edward, I disagree with you entirely. It would be much wiser of Rudd to keep his powder dry on tax for a while yet. (As has been noted, Howard didn’t release his in ‘96 for several weeks into the campaign and, like ‘96, this election is much more about the incumbent than the aspirant.)
By the middle of next week, the polls will indicate whether Howard has got a bounce from his tax cuts. If so, Rudd can frame his response accordingly. If not, Rudd can spend that money in other places…like childcare rebates, hospitals, renewable energy projects…and maybe some new boots for our soldiers and a couple of tanks which work.
No,he doesn’t have to match them at all ESJ.
What he has to show he can be fiscally responsible,and target his tax spending to areas that actually need funding like Health,Education,Infrastructure,the Environment,Child Care,Climate Change. to name a few.
As a voter I would happily forgo my tax cuts for improvements and extra funding in the above services .The tax cuts are going to do nothing but raise interest rates and any benefit is gone in mortgage payments to the banks.
Ive not seen Janet Albrechtsen on tv before yesterday and she seeMs to have lost the glasses? Anyway more of the same from her in the GG. How can she be serious claiming the rodent is a conviction politician not least with his latest about face on reconciliation? In fact if you substitute Howard for Rudd in her article you have an almost perfect analysis of Howard- the man who said and did anything to become and stay PM.
Not much sign today of the tax plan that has wrong footed and KO’ed the ALP-Ben Cousins you beauty!
God… another 5.5 weeks of this?
No. 117
Times have changed because Kevin Rudd has been tirading against the government about a so-called “plan for the future”, yet after 10 months of questioning from the media, the best we received was a gaffe regarding the tax scales. Where is Mr Rudd’s plan for the future? It is distinctly lacking thus far.
Ben Cousins is a Labor party stooge.
Re Am’s “Fairfax papers are not as bias as News Com papers..
Does anybody know what ratio of our 121 million dollars went to Rupert. Not that I’m a conspiracy theorist or anything.
rcandelori – If you watch Rudd talk you’ll see his five fingers. His plan for the future is more than tax cuts.
No. 127
I think you’ll find that Keating dug his own grave.
rcandelori:
You sound like the Devil himself, John Howard I mean.
No 129,
I disagree with you on the fact that Rudd has a vision for the future, but I’m too tired/exhausted (like LTEP @ 128) about this election already for the day. I’ll be back later in the day, but I’m off to watch baseball.
Apologies for the rubbish answer, but I can’t believe that there’s 38 days more of this to go…
So was Janet A wearing those undies – leather, fur and studs. She is a weirdo!
Gecko
Good point.
# 129 – Candles, Rudd has used his messages about broadband, climate change and IR to position himself as a man with a plan for the future. In this, he has been incredibly successful. You may rant against this..and it may be that this perception is an illusion…but it’s a very real perception all the same.
See: “Headland Speeches”.
No. 132
LOL.
If a journalist asks Rudd, “what is your plan for the future?”, Rudd will reply “well, I have a plan for the future, unlike Mr Howard etc etc”
You don’t have a plan just by saying you have one and pointing at your fingers.
candle… Howard’s plan for the future is a tax cut. That’s it. I think Rudd will find it tough to match that stunning vision.
However, I didn’t really think this was a debating website.
ESJ@115: That’s pretty good. Give rcandelori some of your jokes…s/he’s grating.
Not much psephology going on today i see…..
.
.
Edward,
Does that mean Glen has joined the Dirt Unit? Digging through Julia’s hairdresser boyfriend’s garbage bins perhap?
I understand “Glen” has been given the chicken suit and will be appearing shortly with KR on the outskirts of Brisbane. I am unsure what other special projects Senator M has in mind for “Glen”.
The Senator is also upset “Tabitha” has been neglecting blogging duty. It will mean “John of Melbourne” has to be reallocated.
Isn’t that a promotion for Glen?
Reading the GG is like going through the looking glass. Its trippy, weird, and makes a good tale later, but really bears no actual relationship to electoral reailty.
I think the campaign going swimmingly for Rudd so far. Better ads, more fresh material, the coalition has stuck with the nuclear vote killer (baha!), and ALP leads on 6 of 8 issues in a generational shift election. Plus the coaltion has shot its load too early. Not much dough in the campaign barrel. And workschoices stinks as bad as it did 6 months back.
Howard is in seriously deep sh*t. His primary is way, way too low to win.
Dont believe otherwise until you see the coalition 2pp anywhere near the ALP primary.
Wow, just found this website and can see that 99% of comments are from lefty Labor voters/staffers. What is it with you lefties dominating blogs? Is it because you’re still at uni studying your 3rd arts degree? Viva la Ruddulucion eh….
Yes it is. The Senator believes in incentivation of youth.
Can we PLEASSEEE get back to discussion of the issues poll, rather than all these endless cycles of Conservatives vs Lefties bashing each other up?
Concerning the issues poll, Labor has a lead on the top 4 issues. This becomes even bigger in the case of water and environment, when you consider that most of the “others” in these issues would be saying Greens would be better. Thus centre-left parties are a long way ahead of the centre-right on the top 4 issues.
On IR, the 49% who rate it as important is not an indication of the vote influence. Most people are not affected by Workchoices, and so it’s not of primary importance to them. However, there’s a large minority that is affected, and for whom IR would be of the highest importance. These people are the ones who have shifted to Labor over IR. The Crosby Textor analysis at Possum is revealing; Workchoices is a big vote driver for Labor.
The odds of a rate rise are increasing:
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
If the next set of inflation figures are not good, looks like Howard will have a rate rise to deal close to the poll. It’ll be interesting to see how he spins it, if it happens.
I watched Nine news here in Sydney last night. The election story was seventh, just before the first ad break.
That represents the opinion of the News Director about the level of election interest in the wider community after a long year of campaigning.
Very bad news for Howard. He’s so far behind he needs people to pay attention now. The Australian can write every lead story from here to poll day on economic issues if it wants, but no voters-that-matter are reading it. They’re watching the 6pm news.
So cheer up everyone. Except you, Candles. You can stay depressed and narky.
I hope Glen is protecting his nuggets
That is becuase of the release of the Westpac survey:
“The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity, released today, increased by 1.5 points in August, taking the annualised growth rate of the index to 5.6 per cent.
The index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, remained above its long term trend of 4.3 per cent in August.
The annualised growth rate of the coincident index, meanwhile, was 4.5 per cent, above its long-term trend of 3.7 per cent.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600743-12377,00.html
# 108 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 10:38 am
Answer the question, when did Howard release his tax policy in the election campaign in 1996?
Times have changed alright… now Howard is on the receiving end.
My parents live in Benelong & they’ve had a letter from their local member asking if there was any potholes in their area that need fixing!
No. 151
I’m far from depressed.
I’m actually laughing the ALP zealotry around here. None of you live in the real word.
John@147, I think it’s a) We Lefties are more motivated to get rid of Howare, and b), the Tories are losing, and you don’t cheer when your team’s getting thrashed.
# 120 rcandelori Says:
# 120 rcandelori Says:
We’re yet to have any substantive argument from you as to why the ALP should act any differently with its tax policy than Howard did in 1996.
No. 154
You love going over old ground. The question has been duly answered.
# 156 rcandelori Says:
The real world is feeling the very real effects of having their working conditions eroded by workchoices, and chronic underfunding in health (bulk billing and aged care, + the dramatic reduction in federal funding to hospitals) and education (enough said).
Seems the Uniting church aren’t happy.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061756.htm?section=justin
#160 rcandelori Says:
October 17th, 2007 at 11:10 am
In your words, “how inconvenient” it must be to not have a substantive argument, and to simply try (unsuccessfully) to denigrate people for not ‘living in the real world’.
The liberal government stands for nothing but hate, fear, lies and smear. You are doing nothing more than hammering that point home.
#160
Typical circular logic from a Young Lib. Why not just answer the question? What Rudd has or has not said up to this point doesn’t somehow render irrelevent the fact that Howard ran a very similar small-target campaign against Keating in 1996. Methinks you are upset that it seems to be working for the ALP. Rudd will not be bullied by the likes of you into releasing a tax policy.
rcandelori – I think you are a Liberal staffer. Your comments indicate that you are waiting for the rabbit to pop out and for the polls to ‘inevitably’ turn for Howard.
No. 161
Chronic underfunding of health? Health spending has increased by over $30 billion in the time of the Howard Government, and is set to increase yet again in the next health agreement with the states.
The fact is that when you try to have a discussion on federal issues, people blame the Howard government for problems caused by incompetent state LABOR governments. Perhaps you should be asking the tough questions to Reba Meagher, or Iemma and the rat pack.
# 120 rcandelori Says:
We’re yet to have any substantive argument from you as to why the ALP should act any differently with its tax policy than Howard did in 1996.
Well… I’ve just read the replies again, and there’s still no answer to the simple question. At what point in the 1996 election did Howard release his tax policy?
Scared to answer the question?
156 rcandelori
I’m happy to chat about politics, the election or whatever. There’s no doubt there’s ALP zealotry around here, but please lift the debate – what do you mean by the ‘real world’? The main emphasis here is psephology – the study of polling data.
Do you believe the last 12 months of polling are incorrect or misrepresentative? (We need to start from some common ground with this discussion!!!)
I think it’s time to revisit the possibility of starting a proper electotral blog at my website. This endless round of nyah-nyah-nyah isn’t worth reading any more.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22599096-952,00.html
“The Nationals candidate for Leichhardt, Ian Crossland, said yesterday he did not think the seat was suitable for a woman.
The Liberals’ candidate is female – former Howard Government adviser Charlie McKillop.”
Vote National Party – A one way ticket back to the 19th century.
Happy if Rudd and labor said they would maintain status quo on tax until after they get in and can inspect the books before deciding on any changes to tax.
Last time Howard lost office as Fraser’s treasurer he kept secret the largest deficit in Australia’s history. The Howard government has been the most secretive, especially in the withholding and distortion of information that should be publically available.
Before any company takes over another they are allowed an detailed inspection of the books to ensure that what they are buying is as portrayed.
This should apply in politics, allow labor unlimited access to the books so that there is no nasty surpreises like before when they take government.
No. 164
How dare you accuse me of being a party stooge. The level of disingenuous commentary around here is unbelievably in favour of Rudd, so pure logic would suggest a bunch of die-hard ALP supporters, content in their delusion.
166 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Has federal health funding increased at the same rate as the states have increased funding?
Yes or no?
What percentage of hospital funding is covered by the federal government now? What was it 10 years ago?
Well? Answer the question.
127 Tory Crimes – re Janet A – I’ve seen her on TV and she is a lot more attractive than the piccies in the GG. – BUT, her column today is just crap. She says that Rudd is running a presidential style campaign but Howard won’t. Where has she been? All campaigns now are built aroung the leader so are presidential. Howard has been a one-man-band for his whole time as PM. The problem for Howard/Costello is that there isn’t a leader, there are two!!
I’d be happy to have intelligent socratic debate.
173
The Federal Government introduced the GST which has allowed states to increase spending on hospitals to record levels. Ask Peter Beattie, he never had a bad word to say about the GST. Indeed, the GST comprises around half of all state budgets and in Tasmania, its nearly two-thirds GST funded.
So before you get all narky about percentages, just realise that the GST has made it all possible.
rcandelori,
I am no die-hard ALP supporter, but I am sick of the disingenuity around here. Please clarify for me whether or not you are in the Young Libs, as I do remember you from the insidepolitics blogs where you admitted this very fact. If this is the case, then I am merely speaking the truth. If not, I apologise unreservedly. I ask with no ulterior motive.
No. 174
I’d make the same assessment of you. If the level of debate has degraded to accusing people of being stooges, then clearly you must be an ALP staffer.
“Howard’s 1996 strategy is immaterial. We are in 2007. Times have changed.” Oh, so the 17% interst rates are still relevant (18 years ago) but when Howard deliverd his tax policy isn’t some 11 years ago. Good argument.
Adam,
Do you really want to spend your whole day moderating and deleting comments? Let’s face it, the next 38 days are going to be pure hell and unless you are will to devote masses of time to moderating your site it will just turn out the same. Poor William probably has RSI trying to keep up with the comments.
The states are increasing their spending share, the federal government’s share is decreasing. This was admitted by Tony Abbott 3 weeks ago. Or maybe you are accusing Abbott of lying?
I didn’t see anyone debating the GST. Looks like you are constructing a straw man argument.
No. 178
I’m not going to answer your suppositions. At the end of the day, I’m coming on here to debate the issues and all I get in return is the same old ALP apologism, as if alternative opinion is disgraceful, as if supporting the Howard government is a criminal act.
The fact is, you can all talk about 1996, you all talk about some illusive future plan, but until I actually see some substance from Rudd, the Coalition clearly has more runs on the board.
rcandelori:
Wow you are the Devil, John Howard clone I mean.
Now I know why I am not voting for John Howard, if you are an example of what he stands for.
No 182
Abbott was telling the truth, and the reason why the states have been able to increase their spending share is because of the GST, which comprises half of all state budgets.
So no, there’s no straw man argument. The GST is inseparable from this issue, given its importance to state budgets.
Good, so you agree that the states share of hospital spending is increasing, while the federal government’s share is decreasing. Even though we have a $17 billion surplus.
This demonstrates how strange the government’s priorities are, and is another excellent reason to change the federal government.
No 184
I’m still waiting for some mature argument from you AM.
I mean, labelling people as the devil? What, are we in kindergarten here?
177 candelori – The tax issues are more complicated thasn the simplistic Tory line you are spruiking here. GST is touted as a ‘States’ tax by Costello but the government include it in thier budget figures as ‘Commonwelath revenue’ which makes them look better at economics than they are. Also, GST is not the biggie, income tax is, by a huge margin. So Commonwealth expenditure from income tax is still necessary to fund the services that States have to deliver, GST is nowhere enough.
rcandelori
I dont debate with fools.
Quote:
” Even a foolish man seems wise till he opens his mouth”
No. 186
Don’t selectively quote what I said.
The GST is the reason why the states have increased their share of spending and the GST is a federally-collected tax introduced by Howard.
Ignorance of this fact is tantamount to meaningless ALP platitudes.
Candles (nice Crispy), a couple from your past? Not a stooge?
http://www2b.abc.net.au/news/forum/forum31/posts/topic10689.shtm
From: Robert Candelori 20/10/2001 14:59:00
Subject: Private Education post id: 10689
If Beazley gets into government private schools will suffer immensely and the extra money being injected into public schools won’t change the fact that most public students are trouble makers and refurbishments will only be vandalised.
http://www2b.abc.net.au/news/forum/forum31/posts/topic10443.shtm
From: Robert Candelori 19/10/2001 21:00:03
Subject: Job Dossier post id: 10443
Who would you prefer?
Name: John Howard
Born: 1939
Experience: 5 1/2 yrs Prime Minister
Achievements: repaid $58 bn of debt, introduced the GST – a fairer tax
OR
Name: Kim Beazley
Born: 1948
Experience: None
Achievements: None
Surely these “issues” polls are just a bit of fluff from the polling companies to keep in the news betwixt the polls that everyone really waits for. ie: voting intention.
There is this line run that “Managing The Economy”, is such and important indicator, but how true is it?? They Rattus Crew have been ahead on this measure forever, and STILL they are way behind in the voting intention polls.
I’d expect there to be some movement back to the Coalition in the next Newspoll, if only because the result generally seems to oscillate back and forth between limits over time anyway. Maybe that movement will be accentuated by the announced tax cuts?? Maybe its due to deliver a dreaded “outlier”!!! That would set the cat amongst the pigeons wouldn’t it!! During the campaign you can bet that people wont wait to see trends develop, even over a couple of weeks.
Still, even if it comes in at 57/43 in the ALP’s favor you can expect that the workers friends at the GG will find some way to spin this into “Team Howard Costello Rampages Into Real Contention for Election 07!!!!”
No 188
Of course, I’m not saying that the GST is bigger than income tax. But, when the GST comprises 50 percent of all state budgets, you can’t ignore its importance which is what most people are trying to do.
But I suppose times have changed…
These ‘issue’ polls are also inevitably misleading or at least partial, in that they ‘frame’ the issues in one way and not another. (They don’t let the elector frame the issues).
Clear example is how ‘national security’ gets prominence. I’m not cavilling with the term, though it’s a bit loaded. Eg ‘foreign affairs’ would prompt more support for Rudd.
Yet ‘national security’ gets a run but not the ‘Iraq War’. Yes most Australians turn away in disinterest or horror at the news from Iraq. But modest but not insignificant numbers of liberals were turned off by the deceit and fawning to Bush. Anecdotally, my family on the Sunshine Coast report a surprising depth of anger amongst old and not always pro-American conservatives over the Iraq debacle. (People who’ve known war seem to take it more seriously than others).
No. 191
So now we’re into character assassination. Those posts were made in 2001, I was young and I was immature.
Panacho, deal with the issues.
Back to the Newspoll…
Any ideas (beside conspiracy theories) on why the issue of Leadership does not have any details, apart from the fact that people consider it the 7th most important issue?
Could it be that it was a pro-ALP one, thereby putting a dent in the whole Coalition arguement about the RIGHT leadership? Does anyone have access to (or a link to) the previous issues poll to see how it rated before?
rcandelori:
Now you have been exposed, it must be time to for you go and harass another blog.
#183
“as if alternative opinion is disgraceful, as if supporting the Howard government is a criminal act”
I think this is taking it too far. I for one acknowledge that in a healthy democracy there will be a plethora of views on an issue. Forums like this exist for these to be discussed and debated in a thoughtful and considerate manner. If people are making considered criticism of Howard’s policies, then the way for a Government supporter to answer them is in an equally considered way. This is the crux of good democracy.
If you think there is a pro-ALP bent in these blogs, then I suggest you look at Andrew Bolt’s blog, where the situation is reversed. The nastiness against Rudd in that blog has doubled since the election was called. In those blogs, Rudd is the devil incarnate who will absolutely destroy this country. So you see, blogs are polarised in this manner.
No need to take it personally. By the way, I also think it is legitimate to question a blogger’s involvement in a party: this way, their arguments can be evaluated as to whether they are simply “towing the party line” or otherwise. Whether that person chooses to answer the charge that they are a party rep or not is up to them, and this is perfectly fine: You chose not to answer, and there is no problem with that, but why shout down the question itself as an insult?
191 – candelori maybe hasn’t heard of Google? good one, gotcha
Re 196
Nothing has changed then, really the way you are acting, you are doing Labour a favour by turning people against the Libs.
Good work.
63 isn’t young
rcandelori = troll.
Ignore. It’s that simple. If you deny a troll oxygen, they go away.
From reading the tabloids, it looks like Ben Cousins has broken his election promises and will be punished at the polls.
In other news, a lemur that looks like Rodney Dangerfield!
I didn’t know that Labor don’t have all the economic figures accessible as compared to the government. So I take my previous comment back
Now, Labor is rightly / fairly deserved the time spending on studying the figures (just made available to them from the government) before releasing their tax policy.
Guys i really think the attacks back and forth are getting a bit over the top. Bullying a poster of any persuasion off the blog makes it less interesting for us all. Yup, a bit of good natured banter is fun, but its getting a bit rude at times.
Well, that’s candelori skewered. Can be get back to discussing polls?
“most public students are trouble makers”
Robert Candelori
Wow. That is way past mere immaturity. That is serious ideological idiocy and contempt.
And you wonder why hard-right conservatives are on the nose?
No. 199
I do take it personally because every time a legitimate argument is raised, you are asked whether you are a member of the Liberal party. Why should anyone be subject to such harrassment?
It is a smoke and mirrors attempt to avoid addressing the argument. It could be said that all members here are ALP staffers, but that’s an immature and totally unsubstantiated view, yet anyone who supports the government is accused of being a stooge. It highlights a distinct policy of double standards and hypocrisy.
William, I’d take no offense if you removed my google work (or didn’t) – I accept it could have heightened the silliness.
The tax bribe and work.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/spin-doctor-do-tax-cuts-encourage.html
# 179 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Call me whatever you like… at least I can back up my assertions, and am not scared of answering questions like…
At what point did howard release his tax policy in the 1996 election?
Well? When?
No 208
My comments in 2001 are unnceptable and wrong and I’ve never made such assessments since.
In the end, it seems people are more concerned about destroying my character as opposed to dealing with the current election. Isn’t it hypocritical to accuse the Howard government of smears, when the ALP apologists are resorting to blatant smears themselves?
William,
Time to nalpham some of these comments? It’s getting a bit personal from both sides.
rcandelori,
I don’t mind one iota what your political affiliations are. You say you want to debate issues, then let’s debate on substance. Many have asked why Keating’s 17% interest rates in the past are significant, but Howard’s 1996 campaign is not. According to you, times have changed, meaning Rudd should release a tax policy. Why the different standards being applied to the ALP and not the Coalition?
A valid question. I await your considered reply.
Janet Albrechtsen reminds me of a talking lizard.
Rudd should turn up to the debate with the Channel 9 Camera crew.
190 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:33 am
190 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:33 am
But that doesn’t make sense. If it is a federally collected tax, and the federal government is providing less support to hospitals as a percentage than ever before, doesn’t that logically mean that if there’s a hospital problem, the government should put its share (from the tax it collects) back to where it was before?
And tell me… what is the state of bulk-billing these days? Has that increased or decreased? And while you’re at it… doesn’t a decrease in bulk billing lead to more strain on hospitals?
Well? You’re big on rhetoric there son… time to pony up with answers to the difficult questions.
# 213 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:48 am
So now quoting you is smearing you?
The people who were questioned for this “Newspoll – issues” poll were also the ones who said they would vote ALP (48% PV) and be prepared to give Labor a resounding victory. As Mumble says the only vote that matters is the party vote. Oops, there goes Shanahan and Kelly’s arguments.
No 215
My comments were in the context of Rudd spruiking an illusive plan for the future, yet so far, we’ve heard much about this plan, but not what it actually contains. So, my point is, Howard didn’t have this grandiose future plan, as far as I can recall (I was a mere child back in 1996) so he shouldn’t be held to the same standard.
Isn’t it interesting how quickly Costello forgets about the GST.
I agree that under his plan you won’t pay INCOME TAX for the first $16,000. However, that doesn’t mean things you buy are tax free.
221 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:54 am
So a 4.5 billion dollar broadband rollout isn’t a plan for the future?
No. 218
Pi, of course it makes sense.
The federal government does not include the GST in the budget papers because it is totally rediverted back to the states.
The percentage comparison made in the media, as far as I’m aware, ignores the GST from the feds.
Gary, you’re right. It doesn’t make sense to discount one part of the poll as ‘they haven’t decided for sure’ but accept the other part of the poll. It really stinks of them assuming that everyone must think the same as them (eg. ‘Well of course the economy is most important… so that means if they answer the Coalition is better at handling the economy they will eventually vote for them!’)
Also, I thought Shanahan had already gone on the record as saying the polls are wrong (eg. mobile-only households not being taken into account) and that the really crucial part of the poll is the preferred PM question.
They just have no credibility if they twist polls to say what they want them to say. Best just to show the poll and state what is says without the spin. eg. The two party preferred vote shows X/X. When questioned on who they believed would handle the economy the best X% respondents answered the Coalition.
Would it hurt them so much to do this?
Hey, fair go, they need to write about SOMETHING! What do you want them to do, limit themselves to writing about things backed up by evidence?
No. 223
No. It is a rehash of an old Telstra plan.
We are all here for intelligent discussion, and to catch up on the latest political news.
Please do not respond to posts that are intentionally argumentative. Please do not stoke the fire when threads degenerate into childish arguments.
In other words: please STFU unless you have something intelligent to say.
I’ve found the Newspoll site and have looked at the June 07 and Feb 07 figures. No detail on Leadership – in fact, Newspoll appear to do the same thing every quarter: they put Leadership in the 9 most important issues, but when they do their “summary”, they only list 8 and always drop off Leadership, regardless of where it appears in the top 9. Interestingly fishy, I think.
Also, you don’t seem to be able to access October 06 figures; it merely takes you to the October 07 figures, not just on this poll but also the main “who would you vote for…” one.
#221
It’s all about the politics: If Rudd came out with several policy announcements this early in the campaign, it leaves pleanty of time for the Coalition to manufacture some “hole” in them, even if such a hole may not exist. As perception is everything, this could be very damaging, even if the funding hole is subsequently found to be non-existent. Also, it gives the Government less opportunity to “trump” Labor on various proposals.
Mind you, even when Labor does release a policy with “meat”, it is immediately shouted down by the Government and their supporters as “lacking substance”. Of course, this is expected from a Government trailing in the polls as it is. I reckon it is also driven by input from crosby-textor.
What Rudd is doing is smart politics, and is obviously causing the Coalition angst. This will increase if next week’s newspoll is sans bounce for the Coalition.
Bread and butter. If Rudd says he’ll leave taxes unchanged, I think that will be enough. It isn’t for him a defensive election, which means he doesn’t have to try and match anything – “32bn$ tax cuts? Motherf*cker no! Im going to cut them by $44bn!”. I’ve read two posts now talking about how much it costs to go to the doctor: $110! Far out, that’s steep. And because people in La Trobe get sick and $110 is a fair bit of cash for a trip tot eh GP, and because people in Hasluck get sick, and because people in Solomon, Kalgoorlie and Eden-Monaro get sick, then just ride roughshot over ideological split and go for the bread and butter.
Cap doctors’ vists at $40 or something like it. Stuff like that. I mean, it seems pretty obvious to me that Rudd isn’t going to get away with that Bob Hawke-Paul Keating everyman thing – “you are not folksy. You are not plain spoken. Do not, do not, do not act like it” – he might as well play up the social democratic nature of a Labo(u)r party. Force a situation where Howard has to slap down his plans. I think there’s still an outside chance that, if by changing the narrative to Howard battles Rudd’s ideas that The Narrowing may not happen.
Has anyone seen any written report of Howard’s lamentable gaffe yesterday about average weekly earnings and current official interest rates? I can’t seem to find anything about it. No doubt if it was Rudd who’d made such glaring errors, it would be splashed everywhere.
Oddly enough, it was the main story at the Daily Telegraph today here in Sydney too. The front page picture covered about 75% of the page.
LTEP at 225
Well yes it would hurt them. If they just stated the facts their headline each Tuesday would be ‘Labor headed for massive win’. Now which Australian reads want to read A) About Labor winning and B) The same thing each Tues for almost a year in a row?
Their analyses are ridiculous, but they appeal to the target audience and are thus commercially sound.
We should be content that we know better and that the election isn’t decided by people who read the Australian (or newspapers for that matter).
# 224 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:58 am
What does that have to do with anything?
The percentage comparison made in the media, as far as I’m aware, ignores the GST from the feds.
# 224 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:58 am
What does that have to do with anything?
The percentage comparison made in the media, as far as I’m aware, ignores the GST from the feds.
Does it? Where did you get that idea?
So… you you’re using incomplete understanding of the process of taxation and distribution to the states, to not even justify something that you know the federal government is responsible for, and can fix, and has reduced funding for, and continues to blame the states for.
While at the same time has loading more people into the system they’re underfunding, by slashing funding for aged care (another federal responsibility) and doctors care (another federal responsibility).
Have I got that right?
213
rcandelori
Fair enough. Though you do understand you can’t then criticise others for youthful political indiscretions (alleged or actual).
I think he will announce an earned income tax credit to help people with children on low and middle incomes. He should also try to integrate it with child care fees.
I don’t think his priority will be shifting the highest tax rate from 45, to 35 cents. That rate only applies to people earning over $150,000, how many of those people vote Labor?
LTEP,
I think it’s safe to say that we can expect zero logic from Mr Shanahan – his credibility checked out some time ago now. Let us not forget that this is the commentator who, in the days following the 2004 election stated that John Howard had won a two term majority in the HoR and that he would not use his senate majority to bring in unpopular legislation.
See my earlier post (#84) for predictions on the next angle of approach taken by the sad old Government Gazette – I hope Shanahan takes a teaching job after this – I’m gonna enrol in his class as it will be the only forum in which he will be obliged to defend his odious brand of hackery.
# 227 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
It is no such thing. Stop inventing stuff.
You go find me a link to where Telstra proposed an open-access architecture public/private broadband network.
Fabricating lies because you can’t defend the indefensible is not a good look.
No 236
It is relevant because the state budgets include the GST whereas the federal budget excludes it.
The GST is a federal tax that cannot be ignored. You can keep up the circumlocution, or you can deal with the facts.
Well, the betting markets are buying Newspoll’s BS. Labor nearing or at $1.50 now and the Libs $1.65. Hard to believe really.
ShowsOn:
earned income tax credit…sounds vaguely…familiar…
Holy hell, Rudd’s going to win the 2007 Australian Fenderal Election by being Helen Clark. Brilliant. If that’s true, if he copies her, then the Liberals might never govern again.
(dramatic music)
…for a long time.
Gary — you mean $2.65 for Libs.
I won’t believe it until some polls come out. I think everyone assumed the government would try anything to stay in power, that was factored into their judgement of the last 70 odd polls. I don’t see why they would start changing now just because the campaign is on.
Or is it $10.65?
No 241
Given that the ALP is practically in bed with Sol and the amigos, I don’t see how the idea of “open-access broadband” is reconcilable with monopolistic tendencies to quash competitors.
If you actually look at the policy document on the ALP website, it is a bunch of rhetoric, and the $4.7 billion figure is plucked from thin air.
http://www.alp.org.au/download/now/070321_dp_new_directions_for_communications___a_broadband_future_for_australia___building_a_nationial_broadband_network.pdf
showson @ 238 – actually, quite a few people that i know earn 150k or more, and they all vote labor (or greens).
Another thing the ALP will do is remove GST on “sanitary products” and books.
Lose the election – Couldn’t agree with you more. The GG is a disgrace. It would be nice if they could just report the news and give up trying to persuade everyone to vote coalition.
hi all
the nationals candidate in leichhardt has described his electorate as “unsuitable for a woman”.Unfortunately the Lib candidate is a woman(ex-prawn trawler worker according to Mal brough).Story was just on abc 12 o’clock news
i think joe public has two messages re Libs:
a vote for howard is a vote for the exclusive brethren (EB)
The coalition is not really woman friendly eg the heiferman etc now reinforced by the dill in leichhardt
ps dont feed the trolls
I beleive the United States was the first government to introduce it in 1990, but it was greatly expanded when Clinton became president.
Interestingly, it now has very broad bipartisan support in the U.S., so it is curious that it hasn’t been introduced here. The government seems to prefer Family Tax Benefits A & B, and fudging around with rates, rather than just not taking the tax in the first place.
Sorry I should have said Centrebet – Coaltion $2.65. My bad.
No. 250
The GST should be on ALL goods and services. The reason why the system is so complex is because the Democrats rammed through ammendments supposedly aimed at helping low-income earners.
I hope the Labor candidate preferences the Liberal above the National for this outburst. Even if that means 2nd last, and last respectively.
the number of people earning >150K who vote ALP who voteswitch will probably be made up for by the number of people who earn
Come to think of it, where the hell is Mark Vaile? The Nat candidate should be disendorsed.
The exclusive brethren are just as entitled to express their views to politicians as you or I.
Once you limit free speech, there is no free speech.
where did the rest of my post go?
showson:
Yeah, but I think what divides the parties in America isn’t the same as here. For one, I don’t think the ALP feels obliged to prove its conservative credentials, as is automatic in the states. I think in terms of policy, that Rudd and Clark will look pretty much the same. But sine Clark got there first, and since she’s pretty successful, there are probably a few ALP strategists looking across the sea to see if there’s anything they can pick up.
the EB weirdos are certainly entitled to express their views, but they are not entitled to break federal electoral laws, mr candelori.
# 242 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
I’m circumlocuting?
In the first paragraph you say ‘the federal budgets exclude the GST’ (which they don’t, according to the treasury) and in the next paragraph you say “The GST is a federal tax that cannot be ignored.”
Well? You’re the one that should be gettin your facts straight kid.
So… (again) you’re using incomplete understanding of the process of taxation and distribution to the states, to not even justify something that you know the federal government is responsible for, and can fix, and has reduced funding for, and continues to blame the states for.
While at the same time has loading more people into the system they’re underfunding, by slashing funding for aged care (another federal responsibility) and doctors care (another federal responsibility).
Have I got that right?
No 261
Their guilt or innocence hasn’t been proven in a court of law, so it is inappropriate to pass judgment on that matter.
Identifying issues and concerns are different are revealing different animals.
Saying who would better at doing something doesn’t say you think the other can’t do it. The Govt gets the tick for the economy and security on incumbency grounds. They get a comparative cross on everything else. People are saying, you are in power, we have seen how you do it and, this is how we judge you – Labor would do better than you on this and this. 6 out of 8 items.
Economic ‘concerns’ are only held by 23% in Morgan’s poll. That is low a figure and gives lie to Liberal claims about Labor.
Possums analysis is spot on. Primaries have been bleeding from the LNP every since the last election on a whole variety of issues of which WorkChoices is the bigger issue. The Govt has had something to piss off each area of the electorate over the years and this loss of primary is well spread across the issues. While WorkChoices might not be an issue for all it was an issue that helped define the nature of this govt in the voters mind -and that wasn’t good.
This current poll tells us that Labor is preferred on most things and the Morgan poll fills in the gap and tells us that few have real concerns with Labor on the economy.
The Exclusive Bretheren are also required to obey electoral laws. That means, for instance, not booking ads from an address in one state, paying from one in another, and making their contact a third. All in 4 Corners. There will be more to this, perhaps, or perhaps not in this campaign, but I predict they will be keeping an even lower profile this time around. Except for the backyards of Bennelong work, of course.
# 259 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Hang on… isn’t it our current liberal government that is being criticized for 500 separate pieces of legislation that is limiting freedom of speech, from the managers of our press?
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1919684.htm
Once you limit free speech, there is no free speech.
Indeed.
No. 262
According to this page, the GST is excluded from Revenue assessments:
http://www.budget.gov.au/2007-08/overview/html/overview_37.htm
What wasn’t put to air by the ABC about the EB.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/brethren-children-abused/2007/10/16/1192300771160.html
# 263 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
And so how to you reconcile that belief with the treatment of Haneef?
I guess it’s also inappropriate to pass judgement on Osuma Bin Laden. He hasn’t been proven guilty in a court of law.
No. 265
Again, until a court of law establishes their guilt or innocence, it is inappropriate to pass judgment on the brethren.
No 269
Kevin Andrews should be sacked for incompetency.
With the way the political dynamics run in this country you suspect that howard, crosby texter and the the murdoch press actually sit down together and work out the coalition tactics. It defies common sense and strategic competency for the Labor Party to release its Tax policy just because the coalition has done so. Who would, under normal circumstances even think that this would happen, particularly given the new financial figures released by treasury. Yet to go with the MSM there is now some urgent requirement for Labor to do so. I even noticed that clown michael brissendon on the ABC last night saying as much. ITs a 6 week campaign….Labor can take its time, assess the poll response, which I think will be minimal and then make its decision between plan a, b, or c accordingly.
The problem for polical junkies like me is that immersing yourself in the minutia of polical/media comment gives you a warped view of how things really are. As I think Possum has said, peoples views have gestated over a long period of time. They don’t like Howard. There’s not a trick in the book he hasn’t played before. They aren’t reading Dennis Shanaghan or the editorial of the GG. They’re detached from the incestuous rantings and tactical manouverings of the poltical class. For that reason they don’t give a damm that Rudd hasn’t released his tax policy the day after Howard. Its also why despite Howard’s frantic salesmanship over the last year nothing has worked. Its not going to suddenly change.
“Again, until a court of law establishes their guilt or innocence, it is inappropriate to pass judgment on the brethren.”
OK, let me go out on a limb. From my point of view with regards to disclosure and authorisation, they have clearly broken the law. And, again just my judgement, they will be found guilty and face a fine.
OK, that’s your opinion. But no impartial court has found that to be so.
# 267 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
What does that have to do with the federal responsibility for health? They now pay less as a percentage, than before. It is immaterial where the state governments money has come from.
What is being argued is the percentage that the state is paying, and the percentage that the federal government is paying.
So I’ll ask the question again… is federal health funding for health as a proportion of total funding, going up or down?
Answer the question.
What I want to know is how did the EB get to have a 1-1 meetings with the PM and other senior cabinet ministers just a couple of months before the election? These people is almost impossible to see. They’re notoriously remote bcause, as with AWB, if you haven’t been told, you’re not responsible. What was discussed at these meetings, theology? What promises made? Federal Government ministers are remote to all but their inner circles. It’s the question of priveleged access that’s the worry not the fact that the EB has something to say.
talking about Exclusive Brentren, I urge you all, especially the Greens,
to watch ABC’s 4Corners documentary, just released on Monday this week.
All I have to say is it’s breath-taking.
The Brethren Express
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2007/s2057172.htm
for those who want to download the video clips (big):
The Brethren Express – Quentin McDermott’s report “The Brethren Express”, originally broadcast on 15 October, 2007
Length: 44′45″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/brethren_hi.wmv
Phil McNaughton – senior Leader of the Exclusive Brethren, Australia.
Length: 13′10″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/naughton_hi.wmv
Neville Simmons – member of the Exclusive Brethren, New Zealand.
Length: 12′01″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/simmons_hi.wmv
Don Monday – ex-member of the Exclusive Brethren, United States.
Length: 12′49″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/monday_hi.wmv
Alastair Nicholson – former Chief Justice of the Family Court.
Length: 11′24″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/nicholson_hi.wmv
Joy Nason – Former Exclusive Brethren member
mms://media3.abc.net.au/winlibrary/200609/r108235_335531.wmv
Selwyn Wallace – Former Exclusive Brethren member
mms://media3.abc.net.au/winlibrary/200609/r108240_335547.wmv
# 272 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
And seeing as he isn’t being sacked… doesn’t it follow that you should sack the guy that insists upon him staying there?
According to the graph I’m looking at, a year ago it was competitive. And now, it’s really not, people have just walked away from the government. It’s like Rudd was the starter’s pistol for it. Like, people just saw a reasonable and realistic chance to ditch the government without putting stuff at risk, without being tied to the Keating years (cf. Beazley, Crean, Latham) and they just took it. Which leads me to wonder: if Kevi Rudd had been leading the Labor Party in 2004, who would be the Prime Minister today?
Howard and Costello are political hardmen they know that this election is lost.The into the future tax scam is an attempt to sucker Labor into a similar policy so that health and education will continue struggle for nesessary funding.
Pi, as I’ve mentioned earlier, Health spending has more than doubled in the past 12 years at a federal level.
Now you can continue playing dumb, but I’ve got better things to do than argue with inpenetrable stupidity.
273 Sean – I totally agree. I’m as much a polling tragic as anyone and we do become immersed (submerged?) in the detail. As I said earlier, ALL the polls have had Labor with a steady lead for many months. Probably 80% of people have made up their minds, most want Howard gone. Even Howard said you can’t fatten the pig on market day, he has just too much negative baggage to get him over the line. Nothing much will change, the election will be closer than we think, probably 52/48 but that should do.
No. 279
No. Kevin Andrews should be sacked, but the governments job overall has been commendable and there’s no real reason to vote them out.
Ok rcandelori, we get it. You love the government, they can do no wrong and Labor are terrible and should just stay in Opposition forever.
Anything to contribute as far as psephology goes?
Frank
wow some of that stuff re EB is dynamite
no wonder most of the MSM dont want to touch it
maybe send a copy to the vatican so das pappa knows what to expect(and how to deal with) Lib politicians
maybe he’ll issue a papal bull
ps Mal Brough has gone up in my estimations a bit (future leader of the “breakthrough generation”)
On Possum’s ‘day one 3 polls’ article I notice in Higgins that ALP’s 2pp is 50.9. Is Costello realistically in danger?
284 – ‘no real reason to vote them out’? Huh? children overboard, Iraq, AWB, that’s enough for starters.
The exclusive Brethren campaigned hard for Howard in 2004 and their favourite tactic was to disrupt public meetings being held by Andrew Wilkie.
“The man asking the question about Andrew Wilkie’s religion and marital status is Stephen Hales, brother of the world leader of the Exclusive Brethren, Bruce Hales.’
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/backgroundbriefing/stories/2006/1624361.htm
It is a favoured tactic of theirs to disrupt public meetings, we saw similar when Gary Nairns chief of staff accused labors Mike Kelly of using the Nazi excuse at a public meeting in Eden- Monaro.
Young lib bloggers also follow the same tactic, the sole aim is to disrupt the discussion.
Does anyone know if the consumption of petrol is inelastic?
It seems to me that whether petrol is $1 or 1.50 a L consumers still buy about the same amount. It is very rare for people to actually stop using their car(s) just because the price of fuel has gone up.
I’m wondering if Rudd is considering cutting the petrol tax by a couple of cents a L. I guess the government will argue this is bad for the environment, but if consumption doesn’t vary with price, then that would be a hard argument to make.
Getting back to the poll questions, I suppose their importance needs to be taken in the following context:
1. The same people who rate the individual parties on these issues are the ones who also provided the primary and 2pp vote in the same poll.
2. The issues listed may be instructive or help predict future outcomes were there to be some major issue/ crisis which arose during the campaign in an area where one party has a commanding lead over the other.
On the EB – my concern with them (pre-dating the 4 corners piece) was that the PM saw fit to meet with one of their members, at a time when that member was still being investigated for his dealings with the PM’s own party at the last election. Personally, I thought that was pretty inappropriate.
The best way to deal with it is to ignore them until they say something intelligent. Do not reward troll-like behaviour.
290 – Shows On – Labor nor Libs should reduce excise on fuel. We should be encouraging people to use their cars less and to buy smaller cars. Oil will run out so we may as well start practising for that event. The GST on the excise should be scrapped though – double taxing.
Which pollster was closed to the2004 result? I thought it was Morgan. Anyone got any details?
Damien, Galaxy was closest in 2004. Morgan was the furthest from the result, although their primary figures weren’t too bad (they distributed preferences incorrectly).
link to leichhardt story
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061813.htm
“She used to actually work on a prawn trawler,” he said.
“She’d take most blokes and sit them on their backsides.
“I’d be a bit wary if I was the Nationals candidate.”
Mr Crossland has been unavailable for comment.
love it!
well, petrol would be inelastic because there’s not really anything that we can pop in the tank in its place.
would cutting the petrol tax by a couple of cents a litre really make any difference? i mean, it goes up, it goes down by a few cents…i think people are pretty used to those sorts of changes. it’s only when it really shoots up high (into the 130s-140s/L) that people take any notice.
Polls have shown for some years that Australians are very concerned about man made global warming this is not surprising as we live on the driest continent.What is surprising is that our PM is the last person on the continent to adress this concern.How can he claim that he is the right leader? As the right leader he should have out in front leading on this crucial problem.He is not a leader he is an old man in a track suit try to sound relevent.
Good old weak as piss Mark Vaille, doesn’t have the guts to disendorse his moron candidate.
ShowsOn: Mark Vaile rebukes Ian Crossland:
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061813.htm
“old man in a tracksuit”, L.duce – i love it!
Damien J,
ACN were closest to the ALP primary.
Galaxy was closest to the Lib primary.
Morgan was closer to the primary vote of both the ALP and the Libs than Newspoll.
Shows On
The excise on fuel actually acts as a buffer against the wild fluctuations we see in the price of oil.
Because the taxes form such a large part of the price when there is those wild movements in the oil price then the effect is not as drastic as for those countries which do not have the tax.
Eg. Petrol $1 a litre, tax 56c, base price increase 10c effect equals 10% change.
Petrol $0.44 a litre, no tax, base price increase 10c, effect equals 22.7%.
The large swings from the original price where there is no tax can play havoc with pricing for transport costs, whether it is for goods or people.
It can also have more drastic effects on inflation.
I’m been wondering about the reason for Glen’s absence. Is he working for the Exclusive Brethren in Bennelong? LOL
Word of advice: ignore the Liberal trolls! They’re not here to engage in constructive debate.
William will have a lot of cleaning up to do in this thread bwahahhahha.
# 282 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
What is inpenetrable stupidity is that you won’t admit that the share of funding coming from the federal government is less. And you can continue playing dumb, or you can answer the question.
Has the share of government spending for health from the federal government, gone down or up?
It’s a real simple question. Why are you scared to answer it?
” But Nationals candidate Ian Crossland has reportedly said it is a vast electorate, difficult to cover and hard for a woman to win.
Mr Vaile says the comments are inappropriate and unnecessary ”
.
.
Poor old Nationals. Things just haven’t been the same for them since women and black fellas got the vote. Oh, for the good old days when the only people who ran for Parliament were those who drank whiskey and stood up to pee.
For those nervous nellies here who are worried about the pro Lib crap in the MSM particularly the GG, pop over to Possum and take a look at the graphs showing the decline in the Lib vote since 2005. Why should the line change direction in 6 short weeks? Howard would be Lazarus with quadruple bypass, pacemaker and defibrillator (plus Viagra) to swing the voters.
# 284 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Lack of adequate health funding. Lack of adequate broadband infrastructure. Wars that no-one wants. Incompetent ministers. Bribery to odious regimes. Demonization of minorities. Long-term reductions in productivity. Erosion of workers rights. Erosion of freedom of the press. Complete lack of action on environmental issues.
Looks like lots of reasons to me.
In response to ShowsON question on petrol and elasticity:
Petrol is considered generally to be pretty much inelastic. There was a small reduction in consumption in response to the spike in petrol last year, but since then it has picked up again despite prices also rising.
This poll requires closer examination. While it asks how important issues are to voting intention on a range of specific policy areas, it is the mix of these issues in each voter’s mind that will decide the election. I.e. when a certain amount of negatives or positives build up a voter will change her/his vote. It is interesting to note how relatively low the almighty ECONOMY rates in the scheme of things.
Prediction?
Don’s party II (minus charisma)
Hi Alex,
Just because it hasn’t happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen now. One side will be praying it does, the other will be praying it doesn’t.
This looks to be a historic election either way. Either it will be the demise of a government in one of the largest swings in history, or it will be the election people will hold up to say it’s never too late to turn things around.
Personally, I’m hoping the polls stay around where they are, there’s no hiccups and Howard’s gone in 5.5 weeks time. As each poll comes we’ll get a clearer picture of how things will end up.
#282 rcandelori – so what if health spending at the Federal level has doubled? Health *costs* have soared in the same period. You’re obfuscating, avoiding the real issue: the Feds used to contribute 50% of the pie, now they contribute closer to 40%. The fact that the pie has gotten bigger is irrelevant, because it still gets eaten!
#290 showson – off the top of my head, petrol demand would be very (but not perfectly) inelastic. As Alex said, though, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s good policy to be reducing the excise.
Reading the GG is like going through the looking glass. Its trippy, weird, and makes a good tale later, but really bears no actual relationship to electoral reailty.
I think the campaign going swimmingly for Rudd so far. Better ads, more fresh material, the coalition has stuck with the nuclear vote killer (baha!), and ALP leads on 6 of 8 issues in a generational shift election. Plus the coaltion has shot its load too early. Not much dough in the campaign barrel. And workschoices stinks as bad as it did 6 months back.
Howard is in seriously deep shit. His primary is way, way too low to win.
Dont believe otherwise until you see the coalition 2pp anywhere near the ALP primary.
If Newspoll performed poorly in the last election, why does it have so much apparent credence? Is it a frequency issue or is there something in the methodology? I’ve always thought the 2PP estimates were a bit speculative.
I thought the fluctuation in the price of the AUD$ did that? Apparently the price of oil is going to be about US$100 by the end of the year again.
Surely petrol taxes are just a revenue raising measure. I don’t think people would mind if they paid 50 cents a litre one day, and $1 a litre the next. I think they would prefer that to paying $1.20 – $1.50 a litre all the time.
I LIKE the fact the Liberals have had a couple of free kicks the last few days. It will remind voters the election isn’t a for gone conclusion, which will ultimately lock in more Labor votes (because that’s the long term trend) than shifting people back to the government.
I guess everyone sees events differently based on their own circumstance and thus issues don’t affect everyones voting intentions in the same way. I have given up reading the GG, and posters like rcandelori, because they don’t seem to even remotely understand the issues for people like me.
I should say up front the majority of people I associate with, work and social, are what you would call small ‘l’ liberals who have, like me, switched sides for this election. I should also acknowledge I and my friends are in the “higher†income bracket so don’t suffer the same economic hardships facing many today so am not personally affected by those issues. I also acknowledge that neither I nor any of those I associate with have been, nor ever will be, directly affected by workchoices. It therefore is not a major influence on why we have changed allegiances though it does factor into our thinking to some degree as we are aware of its potential ramifications.
For us there really is no single “big issue†just a multitude of small issues and events over a long period of time that has combined to leave a dirty taste and general desire to clean the air and start afresh. The union bogey, interest rates or L plate rubbish just won’t work this time around; it is going to take something truly significant for Howard to overcome the sense of dissatisfaction with his elitist divisiveness and manipulative opportunism that has turned many of us. We are very cynical indeed.
Rather than rely on the MSM I find a much better indication of how events are unfolding is simply to listen to those who I associate with as if there is indeed to be a narrowing then they will have to be amongst those who are to provide it.
So to that extent I strongly disagree with those who believe the tax cuts are good strategy and Rudd has to release his policy immediately.
For me Howard’s tax carrot only highlights he has absolutely no idea of what this country really needs to go forward, infrastructure, health etc and has no plan beyond buying his own self survival.
Howard is simply relying on the public mirroring his own narrow minded myopic view that economic management is predicated on “self interest†and that power can be bought. No doubt there are those that can be bought, his primary vote of 39% demonstrates that, but not all of those that switched did so for money or “self interestâ€, some simply want a better, united, fairer and more egalitarian society to live in than what Howard has provided.
Economics is far more than mere wealth creation, as the originator and father of economics itself, Adam Smith, wrote “Every man is rich or poor according to the degree in which he can afford to enjoy the necessaries, conveniences, and amusements of human life.†A strong economy is a poor economy if it doesn’t provide benefit and welfare for the society of its people.
Rudd does not need to present his tax policy now and would be foolish to do so IMO, the libs have bombed out so he should just stick to his plan of gradually building momentum as the campaign rolls on and ignore the shrilling of MSM and libs, the voters don’t appear too concerned at all.
In fact it is not even about Rudd to some of us, don’t even pay that much attention to him to be honest. As long as he doesn’t do anything totally ridiculous Rudd can count on those I know cheering him on, for this one time at least.
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/poll_bullshit_is_most_important
First time here; not impressed with the squabbling. The same 8 or nine squabblers make for a dull discussion – Mr Bowe is plainly patient or can’t be bothered to moderate the sniping?
The Labor Party knows this is a hard fight – and despite the encouragement poll averages give it’s supporters, on the inside it’s known the difference is much smaller – and a shortfall of 5 seats a possibility.
Alex, mentally I know that Howard does need a miracle to win this election, and I certainly don’t expect the tax cuts to have any real impact. However, I’m going to be nervous about new polls, right up until the Night of the Returns itself. My prediction is at least 54% 2PP to Labor, and 100+ seats.
310 LTEP – Yes, I agree. If Howard turns this around and wins by even two seats, it will be the most significant event in Australain political history ever.
Sorry if this has been noticed before but I just surfed in and saw the thread intro. Dennis Shanahan really is the Tony Snow of Australian politics. He puts the “con” back into “conservative”. If there is any way to find a pro-Liberal bias in a story, however unrepresentative of the whole, he will use it. His fawning for Howard reminds me of Waylon Smithers dreams of Monty Burns on the Simpsons.
In this case, the Australian’s survey considers 8 policy issues. In two of 8 (Economics and National Security) the Liberals are in front, compared with 6 of 8 for Labor. As for trend, in 2 of 8 (same two) the coalition has recently improved, whereas Labor has also improved in 2 of 8 (Health and Social Issues). Naturally, Denis focuses on those 2 of 8! In other words, he focuses on the 2 out of 8 indicators bucking the (pro-Labor) trend.
Speaking of economic genius, did anyone see the news that India is now backing out of the Australia – India – United States uranium deal, based on negative perceptions of our US Allies in India? That will cost Australia exports of several billion $ per annum. I know Howard always extolls the virtues of our US alliance, but does anyone ever add up the cost?
Keating’s 17% interest rates are relevant. Howard has made them so by referring to them in his denigrating way during this campaign. Equally Howard’s 22% interest rate, 11% unemployment and truly massive debt, during his time as Treasurer are relevant, probably more so since he, not Keating is seeking re-election at this time.
Re InCider @ 317
At last, someone willing to back me up on my 5 seat prediction!
No. 312
That’s absolutely wrong.
The original media report specifically deals with hospital funding. Yes, the federal share has declined BUT the state share included GST funding which the federal share does not.
The Government does not recognise the GST in the budget.
The main thing about Rudds lead is how solidly consistent the polls have been over a long period of time. An election doesn’t mean that all bets are off or that Howard is going to start sounding more like a viable proposition. Having the towering smirk permanently standing next to him is only going to make things worse. We’ve been in a phoney election for the last few months. Despite what Sol Lebovic says there’s nothing soft about Labor’s vote.
As the media have been saying, this election is Labor’s to lose. If they stay disciplined and put out some attractive policies, they will win. I would expect to see a raft of Labor policies being released on a regular basis as the campaign develops. This will keep Howard busy trying to shoot holes in Labor’s ideas while trying to defend his own (dismal) record, as well as defend his own seat.
“on the inside it’s known the difference is much smaller”
Do you have any evidence for this? Or are all the published polls wrong?
When a listed company is flush with cash but can’t find a way to invest it, they start buying up their own stock. It has a short term effect of keeping the shareholders happy because it helps support the stock price, but in the long term it’s not a strategy for growing the business.
And so, for Howard and Costello to claim some marvellous plan to return to us a few crumbs while lauding themselves as having a plan for the future is laughable! (Not to mention transparent vote buying).
My guess is that the public have become so inured to Howard’s tricks that they’ll see it for what is: desperate and cynical.
InCider — it’s not usually this bad. Guys can you please quit with your childish arguments. You know that neither side is going to change their opinions so please keep a lid on it. It’s going nowhere and is pretty annoying for most of us reading this blog.
# 323 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
The original media report specifically deals with hospital funding. Yes, the federal share has declined BUT the state share included GST funding which the federal share does not.
The Government does not recognise the GST in the budget.
I don’t know why you keep banging on about this. The ratio has gone down, regardless of where the money came from. The government had no more control over where the money of the states went before there was a GST or after.
The government funding for hospitals has gone down, as a proportion of total spending on hospitals. This is at the same time as a reduction in doctors funding (bulk billing) which puts even more strain on the hospital system, as people that don’t go to doctors, go to emergency wards instead.
So it’s a double-whammy. They’ve reduced funding in health, both directly and indirectly, and then blamed the states for their lack of funding.
That’s it, isn’t it?
Don’t forget the two wildcards, Tony Windsor and Bob Katter.
They will support Rudd and you never know your luck, there might be another in the offing.
ShowsOn 290
The demand for petrol is highly inelastic in the short term (around -0.3 in economic terms). In the long term (3 years +) it starts becoming more elastic, provided other transport options exist. Still less than one though – there is a whole urban infrastructure (housing locations, roasd, work locations) built around using cars. It takes decades to turn that alll around. The idea that you can manage transport demand without causing a major recession is a myth.
Travel demand stays remarkably constant (average 3.5 trips per person per day), based on demographics and land-use patterns. What may change is the mode of transport people choose, provided alternatives exist. Hence you can reduce petrol use if you can get people to use more public transport, walking and cycling. It is difficult though. London congestion charging, arguably the most successful travel demand management scheme in recent years, achieved a 22% reduction in car trips in central London.
Arguably, the “flexibility” of personal travel decisions has actually declined over the past decade. People working longer hours have less ability to avoid morning peak commutes via flexible stop/start times. Likewise the rise of families with both partners working means many remain using cars even if to save only a few minutes.
# 323 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
I don’t know why you keep banging on about this. The ratio has gone down, regardless of where the money came from. The government had no more control over where the money of the states went before there was a GST or after.
The government funding for hospitals has gone down, as a proportion of total spending on hospitals. This is at the same time as a reduction in doctors funding (bulk billing) which puts even more strain on the hospital system, as people that don’t go to doctors, go to emergency wards instead.
So it’s a double-whammy. They’ve reduced funding in health, both directly and indirectly, and then blamed the states for their lack of funding.
That’s it, isn’t it?
rcandelori
The GST isnt federal money. It simply substitutes the raft of state taxes that were abolished as part of the initial funding agreement with the federal government. The problem for the states is that they’ve lost a substantial amount of their financial independance because of this. The so called GST funding bonanza that Howard keeps rabbiting on about is an illusion. The financial review ran an article earlier this week on it.
I agree with Ashley at 326.
As a general rule of thumb, I try to relate any comment on policy to how it might influence voting and the polls in general. If you can’t do that then it’s probably a good idea to resist posting.
Of course, having said that I shouldn’t post this… but it’ll be my last word on the matter.
Can I ask, has anything of substance been offered by either party today? It seems that we’re all still talking about yesterday’s news…
Let it end – interesting take. I agree with your sentiment about a number of issues creating an overall perception which they each individually then feed into. Be it the war, IR, negative campaigning, vote buying, dog-whistling, ignorance or bullying about immigration and the environment, Hicks, AWB, children overboard, SIEV X, Reith and phonecards, privatisation…I could bore myself further. I don’t think any of these is the ‘winner’, but its all seeming a bit Gramscian. Historically, changes are made when enough of these issues group together in a wider mindset.
SL @ Graham Gooch (333):
I think they’re both playing it low key so far because this morning each leader attended the funeral for that felow who got killed in Afghanistan.
Pi and Sean (I won’t try to convince rcandelori)
Another point to watch on “health funding” versus “hospital funding” is to make sure that they don’t include the funds wasted on private health insurers. There is a policy failure if ever there is one. Do you remember all the promises about how it would divert patients out of the public system? It does to a limited extent but many of the most expensive types of treatment still only happen at public hospitals. In terms of cost per patient diverted, private health insurance has been a terrible investment.
Costello is holding a news conference (on Sky News)
I hope they do this for Rudd and Swan too.
Anti union BS.
GB,
Shouldnt you be comfortable and relaxed if its “in the bag” so to speak?
Won’t work.
Trade union bosses – Boooo
Totally relaxed ESJ. No probs here.
#323 rcandelori – GST has nothing to do with health funding and the proportional contributions of the two tiers of government.
On the note of GST, the Federal Government merely collects it and passes it onto the states (less their admin costs). To suggest that this is in some way supportive of health funding is ridiculous. The GST merely replaces a range of state taxes that were abolished.
Therefore, to say that the Federal Budget does not recognise GST is trite – it’s not a source of revenue for the Federal Government. To say that state funding of health includes money that comes from the GST is also trite. If you’d prefer, we can abolish the GST and the states will reintroduce all those inefficient little taxes and duties.
Was it just me or did Costello just hold a news conference solely for the purpose of announcing a scare campaign. Where is the policy?
Here it is the first J “M G Tm” G announcement of the campaign:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labor-to-aid-familyfriendly-business/2007/10/17/1192300829649.html
Who is going to be responsible for determing if its family friendly, Sharran?
It seems like they really did just believe the polls and didnt do any real work in the last 3 years.
Seems to be a lot of posting about the politics of posting. My rough poll indicates that, currently, 1 in 7 posts are of this variety.
Of these, 56% and 44% are authored by ALP and Coalition supporters respectively.
(I actually find a bit of argy bargy entertaining …)
What is this drivel the GG is editorialising about. Do they really think Labor is MAD!!!! enough to have not developed a tax policy? Or that anyone who themselves is not MAD!!!! would believe such rot?
‘There is even a suggestion that some senior Opposition figures did not believe it necessary to have a tax policy at all for the campaign because the Government got so little bounce from the tax cuts announced in this year’s budget that it would not concentrate on tax reform for re-election’.
then remarkably..from ’suggestion’ to ‘fact’
‘Such thinking totally misunderstands the workings of the voter’s mind’.
Labor must be revelling in this light relief! Editorial cum jokes page!
Another fear campaign which will have little effect. Labor has its own and haven’t fired a shot yet. Why do you think the Libs are firing their guns now? because they are worried and a long way behing. Nothing new here. Heard it all before and the polls haven’t moved.
I can certainly do without Cap’n Smirk on TV. We’re only 3 days into the campaign; there’s 5.5 wks to go, so there’s lots of time for policy by Labor. As I said before, Workchoices has been a big vote driver among a significant minority of voters.
Don’t know why you are still arguing with ‘rcandelori’ for? He is never going to change his opinion. Satan himself could run for leader of the Libs and he’d still vote conservative. Can we move on please.
By the way it is a well known fact that 90% of all the demons in the electorate of Hell intend to vote Liberal this election. That’s one seat that is safe for Howard.
Alex ‘most significant electoral event ever’ if Howard scrapes back in? Quite possibly with under 50% – a sadly common enough event.
Try: 1910 (first real ALP fed govt, 14% increase in its primary vote to 50%), 1943 (utter chaos on conservative side, , Labor wartime govt entrenched, conservatives sent to regroup for 6 years), 1954 (Labor had 50% of primaries, didn’t win, then fell into abyss of split in 1955), 1961 (Menzies clung on due to donkey vote in Moreton, and Labor waited 12 years), 1975 (crisis, Whitlam obliterated).
More significantly, in these elections the parties presented big social and economic differences. Rudd Labor vs Howard Liberal doesn’t. The only thing that would make it truly significant is what it would avoid – ie recrimininations in the Liberal party. Realignments in Labor are ongoing regardless.
I’m not sure it would even rate as the most ‘unpredicted’ electoral event. Many pundits still rate it a chance, and the odds are still around 30%.
Rudd: 6000 new homes
9000 new nurses (just on abc radio)
more to come -visionary stuff this
Howard: fear,smear and a crocodile tear
choice is easy eh
Graeme, it won’t stop it being painted as the most unlikely victory ever, even though to a lot of us it’s predictable.
I think Labor will win. What gives me confidence in the polls is the fact that the PPM figures correspond very closely to the primary vote figures. Don’t be surprised to see Rudd finish strongly in the campaign.
Does anyone know when the next ACN, Morgan, Galaxy and Newspoll are due?
What “realignments” within Labor do you speak of Graeme?
Seriously, who hosts a press conference for the release of a TV ad???
Anyway, it seems that the Coalition are firing as many shots across the bow now as possible in the hope of some sticking – first the “L Platers” ad, then the tax cuts and now this ad. If they don’t get any movement for the next poll, they are well and truly screwed…
Has anyone seen any union ads on TV yet? They appeared to die out a couple of months ago, and I’m interested in when they are going to start up again. Maybe not for another week or so?
Looks like the worm will be there on Sunday:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22599479-5013948,00.html
LTEP,
I’m interested in this 5 seat shortfall prediction. Do you reckon it will fall short of the 16 or pick up some and lose others elswhere? If so, I’m keen to know where you think the ALP might lose some held seats. I don’t think many people are talking about the few seats where ALP could struggle to retain power – given the size of the task ahead, I would have thought more journos would be looking closely at the ALP held marginals that could go to the coalition with a strong, strategically driven trageted seat campaign. If the ALP gets the magic 16 and then loses one or two that it cutrrently holds, I can see heads rolling all over the place.
It’s a very dramatic, very plausible outcome.
Thoughts anyone?
Not true Swing Lowe – if the 2PP pattern is going to break it will be in the last fortnight.
I think the point about the 2PP is that people want to vote JWH out, the polls have reflected that all year. It is a question of whether the KR edifice/lead can withstand the 6 week campaign.
If the rivets are going to start popping out it will be in the last fortnight as the accumulated contradictions within Labor build up and become apparent to the voter.
Finally, some policy announcements today – 9250 nurses, $2.55bn on Qld roads, whilst Costello releases an ad:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22601259-5013871,00.html
Newspoll will definitely be taken this weekend with 1600+ surveyed, and probably be out Mon so the Oz doesn’t get gazumped. I think that Galaxy should be out late this week, with ACN late next week. Newspoll will poll every weekend from now on. You can see my tentative poll schedule here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=929
I believe there is a Morgan Poll due on Friday 19/10
Ashley, I saw some ACTU anti workchoices ads on TV Monday evening.
143,000 people removed from the electoral roll! More manipulation of the electoral process by Howard:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061746.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Morgan 19/10… Predictions?
ESJ, where are these accumulated contradictions within Labor? I can’t remember them releasing policies that contradict with each other. As long as they don’t overspend, they should be fine in this regard.
I also disagree with your analysis of 2PP movement – all year, Coalition ministers have been saying that they would expect a narrowing of the polls once the election is called. Now, the election is called and if (big if) there is no narrowing, what are they going to say, particularly as they’ve fired some of their biggest guns (in terms of policies and ads) so early?
Breaking news – an Australian soldier has been shot and seriously wounded in Iraq. Apparently injuries not life threatening and he’s conscious.
Prediction for the Morgan Poll:
The Annoying Nerd 55%
The Grumpy Old Man 45%
60/40
65/35
Ha! very funny!
EStJ – You serious? LOL!
Is it F2F or phone?
58-42
ESJ
glad you have finally come to your senses
well done and all that old chap
57/43 – and the MSM will claim the 0.5% movement as evidence of the Coalition having the early momentum in the campaign…
Don’t quote me but think it’s f2f last weekend
A press conference for that BS. Hell.
.
.
No. They will claim of a huge surge back to Howard and the start of a landslide win for the Libs.
Thanks Lord D.
Am I that biased, I honestly reckon Rudd is going well at the moment. Howards tax policy is a bribe. Rudd will not be rushed to produce his. Rudds housing policy is a beauty. And of course Howards cash rate gaffe. The media are up themselves like usual.
What about Costello trying to defend Howards 6.25%? Costello you are an olympic gold medal class HYPOCRITE.
352 – Graeme – Tks, I was trying to stimulate a higher level of discussion here! My comment was obviously in the context of polling since it became a regular part of the political scene in Australia over last 20 years.
Btw, does anyone here know how Richard Farmer scored yesterday in his Daily Verdict on Crikey?
I don’t have a subscription, so I only got to read the first sentence.
Got till 8.00pm tonight to update changed name/address details with AEC.
Forms must be ‘taken, faxed or emailed’ to get there in time.
‘Enrolment forms can be downloaded from http://www.aec.gov.au and are available at any commission office, Australia Post outlet, or Medicare,Centrelink or tax office.
The roll removal will hit people who have moved within an electorate and who, in previous elections, were able to enrol on polling day and cast what was known as a provisional vote. That allowance has been removed’.
17 October 2007 Canberra Times
143,000 voters knocked off roll
Hey Guys
I’ve got a vision for our nation that I’ve worked on for the last eight years and I have been lobbying the parties for the last month.
So far the Greens,Democrats and a few independents have agreed to cooperate.
Obviously Rudd is too busy at the moment so I took the liberty of contacting Sharan and it looks like the ACTU are interested.
The Australian Business Council won’t commit but hopefully I’ll swing them around after the election.
The web site will be up soon and is sponsored by a certain web design company.
The vision is called “The Great Southern Cross Project.”
More will be revealed after the election.
The vision is called “The Great Southern Cross Project. ………….Its already been done, it’s a train station in Melbourne.
Oh my god, they’re still talking about Vote-A-Matic…
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22601475-29277,00.html
Sky News reports “latest poll shows support for coalition.” They are really trying to spin the newspoll issues survey like a top.
No mention of Labor’s nursing plan.
L Duce @ 295.
The reason for Howards inaction on Climate Change is because he listens to idiots like Alex Robson (he is wrong and should know better):
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/opinion/story/0,22049,22596889-5001031,00.html
Rather than people like Gary Pearse: http://www.highanddry.com.au/
Hope this helps!
Sorry: GUY Pearse, not Gary…must have rugby on the brain.
I got an offer of work for a polling place for the election today and politely turned it down.
Wild horses couldn’t drag me away from live coverage of the Rodent’s concession speech
And there is the problem that is Howard & Costello – they have never had substance and have previously relied on good luck, disasters and fear but never on competence or policy.
Now they are into a battle where fear and xenophobia will no longer work and people are begining to sus out the source of the economy, people are looking at policy – failures. Until Rudd put things on the policy agenda Howard actually had nothing as an item except keeping his power and serving the USA.
The $34 bn in tax cuts is a remarkably inane and unimaginative way to spend the surplus typical of a team who have no understanding or vision. WHEN the big issues in recent times have been health, education and housing affordability they can think of nothing more than tax cuts [and for all, neccessary or not].
The juxtaposition of Rudd announcing funding for 9,250 nurses with Costello releasing an ad campaign is hilarous and informative.
99 – 1 with and OZ headline of “Howard hangs tough’ and Dennis Shanaghan interviewing the only coaltion voter left in the country
Glad to hear the worm is back. Hope it bites Howard on the arse.
CW @ 383
Only if you are enrolling for the first time or re-enrolling after being removed.
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Fact_Sheets/Close_of_Rolls.htm
If you are changing address it’s the 23rd.
Optimist
The 5 seat shortfall that LTEp talks of is in regards to a clean sweep.
Ie Katter Windsor and 3 others will be left, probably Tuckley, Abbott and Costello.
Crikey scored yesterday narrowly for Labor
“link to leichhardt story
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061813.htm
“She used to actually work on a prawn trawler,†he said.
“She’d take most blokes and sit them on their backsides.
“I’d be a bit wary if I was the Nationals candidate.â€
Mr Crossland has been unavailable for comment.
love it!
Excellent Gusface. Poor Crossland had better watch out she doesn’t gut and fillet him, before tossing what’s left into the chiller.
I was in Leichhardt recently and it’s an uber-blokesy place, I must say. Apart from the resorts and the Daintree, of course.
Ran into a bloke in a bar in Port Douglas who was the spitting image of Ivan Milat too. He offered me & the better half a lift back to the hotel, but we thought better of it.
Head on a stick, anyone?
That’s pretty sad for the Libs, just a day after releasing their “big gun” tax policy.
Re – more nurses… great idea in light of what’s happening here in Victoria. Today seems to going well. Costello is a complete knob. Somebody please tell my vote will count in Higgins.
Howard/Costello continue to firm in the betting. The big money is all on Team Rodent. The polls are a complete load of garbage.
Kina,
Does that mean we’ll get the headline: “Rudd Tackles Nurses?”
How come The Gimp isn’t following Howard around today?
Ooh! The trolls are back….must have finished their afternoon nap…nothing like spending the afternoon in the bosom of dear old mater.
Has anyone else noticed that Howard has taken to referring to Costello as “Peter”?
He used to say “Mr Costello” or “Peter Costello” but now apparently they are all chummy so it’s just plain old Peter.
Labor 53/47 in the next Morgan. I think there’ll be a swing back. It’s only natural, given the tax policy.
They can only stand each other in small doses. Howard doesn’t like to look short.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2062096.htm?section=justin
‘Howard knows he will lose debate: Brown’
“Mr Howard lost the last three debates don’t forget. I presume he knows he’s going to do it again. He’ll lose, he thinks, if he’s up against Kevin Rudd ” he said.
“So far Kevin Rudd hasn’t said he’s turning up. John I’ll come, and we’ll make it the most exciting debate there’s been for decades.”
Soon it will be “Petey”. Then “Pet”. Then “Piss off the election is over”
Labor’s fast response ad up on http://www.kevin07.com.au/
Way to go Peter – make industrial relations the issue.
Arbie Jay,
thanks for that. I’m still keen to know if many people have examined a scenario wherein ALP gets the magic 16, but loses one or two others. They could gain all their targetted seats, but there could be strong lib campaigns in a few seats that may cause problems for Labor – I’m talking about seats in W.A like Swan and Cowan or even Isaacs or Holt in Victoria. Admittedly, if the swing is on, it’ll probably be on nationally, but i still think it’s worth watching these campaigns very closely.
For instance, David Marr made particular reference to Isaacs on Insiders last Sunday. He said something about how the Sudanese / Andrews dogwhistle was all about the seat of Isaacs. This may well reflect the Government’s thinking on how to try and make progress in these seats.
Thoughts anyone?
Costello as the ‘Gimp’. Thats priceless!
Antonio, I assume the poll will have been taken last weekend, therefore the tax cuts will not be factored in.
Wow, that was fast! I’ve seen the response ad before the actual ad.
Ruawake,
That was bloody quick – I’m becoming more and more impressed with the Labor campaign every day. Obviously, they’ve prepared for these ads well in advance and I think it’s smart that they’re not going negative early.
Btw, the Youtube link for the ad is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHtUAWFm2sQ
Where can I see the Lib ad? ESJ?
Also of note is that the Liberals haven’t yet uploaded their ad to their website or Youtube channel – so the response ad is actually up before the actual ad…
What have we seen so far from the Libs this campaign?
1. More tax cuts – already tried budget 2006 and 2007 – no noticeable impact on polls.
2. Another union scare – tried at various times all this year – hasn’t worked.
Costello even tried the old “c” word (”communist” – not that other one) in reference to Julia Gillard’s university background. They must be getting very desperate.
Their policy seems to be – Try it and if it doesn’t work, try it some more. Then they wonder why the polls don’t shift. Meanwhile Labor slowly tightens the screws with a campaign that has worked spectacularly for the past two years – IR.
I know who I will be putting my money on (already have actually).
Arbie@395..priceless
Evan@397-Crossland wouldnt want to come the raw pawn with her!!
Prediction 59.5/40.5
an attack ad on an attack ad before the ad attacks.
genius.
Bloody genius.
Those line of ads are very savvy. The screaming union guy actually gets conflated with the Libs while Rudd pristinely surveys the mud slinging from on high, as pure as the white snow. The Libs must hate it..
ALP to hold at 57/43 next Morgan.
No one gives a crap about producing an instant tax policy upon the demand by some boring old get.
One media problem for the LIB is that any talk of them being in the race has resulted in an immediate 2% poll boost for ALP over the alst few months.
But if they play underdog too whiningly, they look like losers.
This sort of bind doesn’t tend to develop unless you’re time is simply up.
John Howard looking very ratty – tells Rudd to “Grow Up” he must have employed Alex Downer as his script writer.
How do they measure? The only real won or loss is on how it affects voters.
Big tax cut event – probably will win voters over; lots of favourable media coverage for Howard, maybe some more votes.
Most punters are not emotionally engaged and give only passing attention to most things political. I guess the only thing they would have heard in the past few days is Big Tax cuts…blah blah. Rudd’s 9,250 Nurses should also register – if it is reported fairly
However I get the feeling the electorate might be a bit bored, it has been a long campaign. I suspect the polls may only move just a touch the Govt’s way – but you wont be able to tell in one poll.
The last Morgan was 57.5 which was on the lower end of MOE with the top being their 59.5 or something.
I’m guessing about 58/42 but with Morgan of late it can be anything. A 60/40 would be hilarious but a 55/45 a bit concerning [for a morgan].
Rudd will run his nurses initiative today and tomorrow and probably do something on Friday, but not something large just something to make it appear he is doing something. Too early for big guns.
That atest one is brilliant.
As I said – the remote control trope is unadulterated raw genius. Its every TV bound punter’s dream come true – the master remote that turns the ad off.
I want some of whatever that ad agent was snorting.
And low-cost too. How easy is it?? Kruddster just spruiks for 10 seconds after the remote goes click. masterful.
The Libs will be spewing….. hehehe.
let’s face it folks: Team Rudd is smarter than Team Rodent.
First sign of decent opposition in 11 years, and Howard looks just as lame as 87. he gets my vote for most overrated pollie in Australian political history.
I urge you all to vote “Yes – to Labor” on this online poll, just to annoy the News Ltd journalists, who have to pretend that this is for real:
http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5013109-5031291,00.html
What a silly poll. I don’t even bother reading comments on stories anymore since they’re just infiltrated by party staffers. Sort of defeats the point of having comments at all.
Thank you Socrates for your post, very informative.
I suspect this means you could cut petrol tax by a few cents a litre and it wouldn’t actually increase consumption. It would just give people money that they could spend on other things.
I LIKE it when they say polls that don’t show support for the government imply support for the government. It will just solidify the Labor vote.
Soon it will be “Peteyâ€. Then “Petâ€. Then “Piss off the election is overâ€
And after that it will be “leader of the opposition”.
Kina Says:
October 17th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
398
Ashley Says:
October 17th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Crikey scored yesterday narrowly for Labor
That’s pretty sad for the Libs, just a day after releasing their “big gun†tax policy.
How do they measure? The only real won or loss is on how it affects voters.
You can read about how they make their judgement here:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/the-daily-verdict.html
Basically it is determined by what stories in what media, and whether they are favourable or not.
Expect to see Howard and costello get increasing desperate and risky in their behaviour if the polls dont move. Given their massive sense of entitlement and visceral hatred of Rudd who knows what they’l do. I wouldn’t rule out them crashing the Labor party launch with a mob of young liberal bovver boys wielding cricket bats.
yes, sean, it’s beautiful. a tirade from a trade unionist (was that norm gallagher?) juxtaposed with cool, calm and collected kevin. it completely destroys the rodent’s attack ad. it’s perfect. labor must have a seriously smart ad agency engaged.
Antonio, Lefty E Next Morgan Which is it 53/47 or 57/43?
I don’t have time to read the entire set of comments, but I do have one thing to say.
How much of the dropoff in Labor’s IR support is from the far left getting annoyed Kevin’s not going to reverse more of Workchoices?
You cannot possibly tell from the poll, but it might well be that the Libs have the far right third, the ALP has the middle third and the “undecided” are in the far left!
I’ve got a stats degree and you need to be very careful with stuff like that….
What I find more amusing is the fact that the News Ltd story on the attack ads don’t have a link to the Liberal ad but do have a link to the Labor response ad – pure gold!!!
The poll of course just measures the demographic of on-line readers, until the young lib storm troops start religously clicking away.
Have a look at Howard’s recent spending commitments:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/bigspend.jpg
The hilarious thing is that if a Labor government did this, they would be shouted down by The Oz and the like for being wasteful socialists.
However it is OK for the Coalition to do this, because on spending commitments, they are kept to much lower standards.
[Sadly “Glen’s†appearances will be less over the coming weeks, the Senator has some special projects for him.] 115 ESJ
Say it aint so, Eddy. It was bad enough losing Steven Kaye to manage the Lib H/Q polling. I still miss his deconstruction of the Morgan polling figures. To lose Glen would really be too much. LOL!
new Liberal ad:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ODT0ZO9EIwQ
A little of course I know but Bob Ellis’ article is worth a read: http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2061730.htm#comments
The first comment is mine.
Huh,
Labor’s ad seems to be responding to a different union ad – that’s a bit odd…
I am not throwing my money away
, will be better spent at the bottle shop 
Who belongs to that really low voice at the end of Liberal ads? Has it been modulated to get a sinister thing going on?
They can using keying to paste the other ad in.
Let’s face it folks: Team Rudd is smarter than Team Rodent.
Lefty E 425
It just gets better and better.
Although Howard’s debate offering is outrageous, Rudd should still participate as he will no doubt be branded as “scared” by the government if he doesn’t.
The ads are already made, it not like the Libs attack strategy is hard to figure out.
The donuts are already made, just a quick edit to put the real footage in.
Allow me to demonstrate how dumb these sorts of polls are.
The current results are:
Yes to Coalition – 31%
Yes to Labor – 25%
No – 42%
Back in 5 minutes…
Re the new liberal ad….the narrator talks as if he’s narrating a porn movie. Only the truly gormless could be swayed by this rubbish.
I’m not sure that the ‘anti business’ line is going to hurt Labor too much. I think theres a perception in the electorate that big business have too much power and that Workchoices is the attack dog of big business. The decades long propoganda war by the right to damage the unions only ever got traction when workers didn’t feel like they were being screwed over. Thats no longer the case and average punters are starting to realise that unions are the only thing standing between them and a dodgy AWA. The environmental movement is also causing people to question this notion that business interests are sacrosanct. In this light the Libs are putting too much store in the notion that Unions = bad. They’ve obviously been reading their own progaganda in the GG.
Rudd should not go anywhere near the old man’s setup debate – Rudd should have a moderated online discussion with the Australian public on Sunday night. That way he can be seen to be talking openly to the Australian public while Howard gathers dust in a big hall supported by the rest of “yesterday’s men.”
I’m actually pretty shocked that the rest of the media don’t have a problem with the format that Howard has proposed. Normally i ewould expect them to have something to say about what constitutes a fair debate.
Oh well.
re 446
ALP are catching up.
Yes, to Coalition now has 31% (419)
Yes, to ALP now has 27% (365)
No has 41% (550 votes)
Yeah Sean, there’s not much work put in to telling people why unions are allegedly “bad”. Its a bit daft to assume content is read.
The way they’re heading, my bet for the Liberal campaign slogan in the 2032 election:
“BEHIND YOU!”
Of course Rudd should have the debate, then in about a week or so say I am scheduling a second debate on Channel 9, with the worm.
Then he can put pressure on John Howard to debate him.
ruawake,
like your thinking. Very nice.
I can report this afternoon of another 3 life long Liberal voters who are going Labor at this election. Any remaining wheels on the Libs wagon must be getting very wobbly as I am sure that this sort of thing is happening elsewhere too {perhaps this is one of the reasons why the swing might be largest in safe Liberal seats}
…..
Went to pick up my kids from school today. Had a nice chat with my 9yo’s Y4 teacher on the way with the kids to the school gate. We chatted about politics prompted by my Kevin07 shirt which I am wearing today. She says that she has always voted Labor *but* this year she has converted her husband of 24 years, a life long Liberal voter, to the Rudd team. And as if that wasn’t enough icing on the cake, she said that she has also converted her inlaws, life long Liberal voters, to vote Labor this election for the first time in their lives. These are folks in the Gough Whitlam age group and perhaps it might be their last election.
We gave each other a collective high five and then I headed off with my kids.
The Lib ad makes the mistake of lingering last of all on Bill Shorten, whose face is well remembered as the Talking Head of Reason and Comfort from Beaconsfield. He doesn’t look like evil incarnate to me.
It’s one for the Lib core I guess. I’m sure there are blogs where Lib supporters are wetting themselves in delight over it. If you hate the unions, it looks terrific.
OK I’m back
Before I left….
Yes to Coalition – 31%
Yes to Labor – 25%
No – 42%
Now…
Yes to Coalition – 27%
Yes to Labor – 36%
No – 35%
I WIN!!!!!!
Not to mention Shorten has a Master of Business Administration, and is very well liked by some of Australia’s biggest companies.