The Australian has published a follow-up to its weekend Newspoll survey, showing issues rated most important and the party considered best equipped to handle them. Labor holds handsome leads on six of the eight listed issues, the exceptions being the economy and national security. Interestingly, the Coalition’s score on industrial relations has increased to 34 per cent from 31 per cent at the previous survey in June, after hovering around 30 per cent since the beginning of 2006. Industrial relations is also the one issue where there was no appreciable shift to Labor when Kevin Rudd became leader. The other issue to run against the overall trend is national security – it surged to Labor as strongly as any other when Rudd took over, but the Coalition has since recovered to levels near those of the Beazley era.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll issues survey
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874 Comments
As I’ve been saying all year, WorkChoices is overestimated as the cause of the ALP’s good standing in the polls up to now.
Labor need to get rolling with this campaign as it’s looking terrible for them at the moment by any objective viewpoint.
Current prediction: Coalition by 7 seats.
Every article in the Government Gazette is negative for the ALP today. As usual Dennis is screaming at the top of his lungs about how Labour has to catch up with the government.
I thought it was the government that was behind in every poll since Kevin Rudd took over. Then again I suppose this is to be expected. Uncle Rupert is not going to let Kevin win without a huge fight. And I have always said, Howard has a huge warchest to spend and the Australian people’s greed is astonishingly huge.
I await the narrowing.
Speaking of the economy Peter Hartcher lets fly in the smh:
Sounds to me like we must throw off the cultural aspects of voodoo economics, ie the people who falsely claim that a 16 year boom was engineered by them instead of the Hawke/Keating reforms and an insatiable China buying our resources of late.
As Hartcher goes on to say:
I am always sickened by the LNP’s actual performance, like how they have ignored infrastructure (and education) except for pork purposes in marginal seats. They are the worst economic managers, ever, and have squandered the boom proceeds for so long it’s a national disgrace.
Peter, I couldn’t agree more. There is so much that needs to be done or could be done, such as matching the states in terms of funding at the very least. Howard’s defence on why this was not occurring was that the states were putting more in because of the GST. Isn’t this the same GST that the federal government is also receiving a part of?
The other thing that bothers me is that the Coalition has presided over a long period of economic sunshine, and has never had to deal with any adversity whatsoever, Yet they keep dishonestly pushing the line that it’s all their doing.
It seems, though, that the public is waking up. If I’m reading things correctly, the latest “big bang” tax cuts by the government were poorly received because they weren’t going on services. Maybe this time the electorate has had enough.
I really hope Rudd hammers this point home at every opportunity. Don’t even bother to match the coalition’s tax cuts, but instead come up with a more modest scheme, then spend the rest on the big three: health, water and education.
Governments should deliver for the people. Delivering tax cuts is a cop out which says we have no idea how to improve services so we are leaving it up to you joe citizen.
Try for Rudd to get this soundbite out: “The Howard era is over.” Set it up so that within three weeks, the press will be talking about an ALP government as a fait accompli. Change the topic: the Liberals can make up ground on the economy. Change the subject, ever so slightly, or at least drag Costello in front of the cameras more – a way of saying “this is your new Prime Minister, whaddya think?” Push the Libs off message a bit. Put them on the grill on an ALP strong subject.
Political Pilgrim Of The Month issues “grab” from byway’s edge.
“I await the narrowing.”
Say g’day to Godot while you’re there, Nozzie. And stay away from garbage bins.
Health, education and water are the three big issues.
All of been neglected for the past 11 years and the libs response is hurried back of the envelope plans.
We have seen medical costs for the ordinary bloke go thru the roof and Howards response is to throw money at one hospital in Tassie. The local boards for Hospitals are a joke and a worry. Can a local board ban procedures they disagree with due to religous views, such as family planning, contraception, abortion, blood transfusions, can a local board Work Choices the staff?
Education also means training, more doctors fro hospitals and skilled staff for our industries educated in Australia instead of importing unkown 457 visa workers.
Water is more than a $10 billion uncosted plan drawn up overnight, the states have been asking for years for a national plan and assistance for pipelines and money to buy out large irrigators.
You can’t fix 11 years of neglect in a 6 week campaign, the $34 billlion in tax cuts just emphasises how much the libs have ripped out of the system.
AnthonyL @ 5:
To leave the provision of services up to ‘Joe Citizen’ is current Liberal form. They are a bunch of market fundamentalists and economic libertarians – especially Minchin and Costello. If they had their way we would have an entirely deregulated labour and market. If you want good education – you pay for it. Good health? You pay for it. Provision of utilities such as phone and electricity? Well if you want good service, you will have to pay extra for it. Heck, if the road outside your front door needs fixing, set up your own tolls so your local community can fix it. (OK, we’re not quite at the point of having locals set up toll roads, but seeing the funding issues around the Old Pacific Hwy collapse at Somersby where 5 people died earlier this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned up.)
Our Australian libertarians are not quite as rabid as the ultra-individualistic American types, but we have our share of them in the Libs. It’s all about I, me and my – that’s why they prefer giving out tax cuts, that way you can spend it on your health or education, but even better, go out and spend it on mindless consumer goods to help our economy keep booming.
Geez I am sick of these guys.
re tax cuts
will the Australian voters be silly enough to be bribed by this? I think not
when inflation & interest rates rise more are people really in front
with a small tax cut.
what about the money that was not spent on necessary social & infrastructure needs?
Morning news shows are all running with the figures for the economy and industrial relations.
None of the other stats are getting a look in, which makes it seem like LNP isn’t doing too badly.
Its only when you see that there are 8 issues and LNP are ahead in only 2 that you think….”oh”
Arbie Jay says
“Health, education and water are the three big issues”
I beg to differ. Not according to the recent special Morgan poll on issues most concerning voters.
Check it out, tell me what you think
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4223/
Scotty @4, FWIW the Feds don’t receive any of the GST funding (except insofar as to cover their admin costs in collecting it). However, GST is falling as a proportion of GDP, whereas company tax (which the Feds DO got) is growing as a proportion of GDP.
The States abolished a bunch of their taxes in return for receiving the GST revenue. Initially this left a shortfall, which the Feds made up (”Budget Balancing Assistance”). Currently, the GST now exceeds the value of those State taxes, at least in nominal terms (not sure about real terms). However, this isn’t the only funding that the Feds transfer to the States – the States also receive funding through Specific Purpose Payment arrangements, which generally involve an agreement for the Feds to provide “tied” funding in certain policy areas. SPP negotiations are always acrimonious, and usually involve onerous conditions placed on the States in order to get matched funding.
The biggest SPP is the Australian Health Care Agreement, which is a big source of health funding for the States. This is the health agreement that Tony Abbott has, for several months, refused to renew – on the grounds that he was too busy (read: wanted the whip-hand in an election environment).
The Feds’ contributions under SPP arrangements have, as highlighted in the last week, been declining as a proportion of the total over the last 5+ years, and given the chronic problems faced in the health and education systems at the moment – Australians have every reason to be outraged that the Feds engage in this underfunding for political reasons.
Unfortunately, the average Joe doesn’t realise all of the argy bargy that goes on, they just see the likes of Tony Abbott on the nightly news saying “We’ve given the States $XX billion, and look how bad things are. Obviously State Labor governments are mismanaging things!”
Fiztig @ 9
Nice speech. Going on the general response to Howard’s tax-cut bribe, it seems more and more Australians share your view.
Squiggle
Morgan is interesting in that it talks about concerns after the election wereas the current Australian poll talks about issues concerning voters, slight distinction.
Australian appears to what are the major issues and who do you think will handle them best, whilst Morgan appears to be asking if that party is elected what issues are you concerned about them handling.
Actually the 2 results may be same, ie Australian – 80% of voters concerned about health and think labor can handle it better than the libs whilst Morgan – 10% concerned about how labor will handle health when they are elected.
I may be wrong but I think you will find that tax cuts would not be eaten up by interest rate rises, it really depends on several factors.
The objective of raising interest rates is to reduce the amount of money in the economy and the speed of its movement through the economy.
If more money is put into the economy through tax cuts, an interest rate rise would only be targeted to address the new money.
I suspect the following will occur in the next three years regardless of who is in power.
The high dollar will reduce exports, and although people keep harping on about mining, it is really only a small part of our exports.
Reduced exports will lead to lower employment.
Lower employment will lead to less wage pressure.
The alternative is the dollar falls
This leads to increased prices of things like oil
The reserve bank can take two views of this
1)SIMPLY=raise interest rates because inflation is high
2)COMPLEX=does the increased price and flow of money overseas act in the same way as a rate increase would.
Hi Arbie jay,
I kind of agree, the only thing missing from the Australian/newspoll stats is a sense of which issues are most important.
Morgan’s approach is interesting though, its like asking someone to think ahead to after they have voted, and to nominate what worries them most about the results of their vote.
Off to work now
The letters in the GG today are skewed towards the government. One writer typifies the selfish attitude that Howard promotes through ‘choice’. He says that those who want infrastructure etc can directly donate some of their tax cut towards that. How ridiculous – but Howard is saying exactly that right now across a humber of issues. It’s bread and circuses.
Silly season has started so early.
All of the changes in support on the eight key issues were within the margin of error since the last poll.
And of more concern to the coalition, the biggest swings since October last year (pre-Rudd) have been to the ALP in the areas of health (up four points altogether), education (16 points), economy (eight points), welfare (10 points) and national security (eight points).
In 12 months, the ALP has only lost ground on IR, eight points.
Yes Coota, but that is the area which so many people have been saying will certainly cost the government at this election.
No point in releasing any policy in Perth for the next few days – unless it it is about Ben Cousins. Law and order for footballers is the only issue that will fly here for the next week.
LTEP – you’re right, yet dont forget the govt has had the aqdvantage of so many IR ads nin the lead up. Now we’re in the campaign both sides have some aprity on this issue, with the ACTU no doubt contributing as well.
The AUD is only high against the USD.
Try looking at AUD vs EUR next time. It shows that the current rate of A$1 buying 63 Euro cents is on the high side of average over the past few years but nothing to write home about. Or blog about for that matter.
I think “If Only” is right. Howard must be thinking that exact thing right now…
appalling typos on my part.
Lose the election please – yep, you’re a stooge. I’m convinced now.
Hmm, I just found out something rather disturbing.
The Commonwealth Treasury yesterday released their Mid Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) publication, which factored in the *Government’s* announced $34bn tax cuts. What this means is that those tax cuts are *Government* policy, not an election promise.
This means that Rudd can’t spend that $34bn on anything else without winding back, as a Budget saving, the tax cuts that the electorate are now *entitled to*. Pretty poor practice on the part of Commonwealth Treasury, since MYEFO has been released after only 3 months of the year (ie not MID year), and very devious on the part of Costello et al.
B4st4rds.
LTEP/Burgey
I’d suggest part of the reason that national polls don’t bring out workchoices as a major issue is that the YRAW campaign is directed at 23 marginal seats.
I’ve been volunteering in Eden Monaro and their is a very positive vibe around the awareness of people about their rights under workchoices and that this will change votes.
And – the only reason the $A is high at present is because our interest rates are higher than many other countries so money comes here. Next Wed is the day to watch for the ABS inflation figures for Sep qtr. If the figure is much above .8, then the RBA will certainly act on 6 Nov. If the inflation figure is highish and the RBA doesn’t act, then they will be seen as acting politically. Glenn Stevens is a very straight guy – he wouldn’t care about Howard’s re-election chances.
Yes Yo Ho Ho, I have to agree with you on Eden Monaro at least, I’ve seen the YRAW very active in the electorate, have signed a few petitions etc.
I just hope they’re working hard in the more Liberal areas of the seat, Jerrabomberra, Cooma, Bega etc.
As to Gary Bruce, someone can’t put forward their idea that WC isn’t a driving force for the ALP without getting called a stooge? Elections are rarely, if ever, decided on a matter of policy (at least positively). This election will be no different. But go ahead… think of me as a stooge if it’ll make a difference to your life.
Lose the election please – “Yes Coota, but that is the area which so many people have been saying will certainly cost the government at this election.” And it still is. Labor holds a 13 percent lead according to Newspoll. The Libs are in the low 30’s on this, so even some of their own supporters think Labor will do a better job.
I’m not at all phased by these numbers. When you think about it these issues polls have shown these types of preferences all year and yet Labor has maintained a very healthy lead. I don’t believe this will change now.
The radio on the north coast of NSW was full of comments saying we need money spent on health, education and infrastructure. There was barely a single comment in favour of tax cuts.
Labor supporters should not despair about the current situation.
No doubt Kevin Rudd and co are digesting public response to the tax cuts as well as looking over the figures from Treasury.
John Howard did the same in 96.
Labor will likely opt for a mixture of tax cuts for the lower and middle, raising the tax-free threshold higher than the Coalition plus billions for infrastructure. They would then satisfy the public demand for better infrastructure and investment at the same time helping the genuine battlers.
They may also come in with something like tax deductibility for interest payments, up to a limit, for first home buyers mortgages and fiddle with negative gearing – eg. restrict it to no more than two or three properties.
Of course the conservative media will bag Kevin Rudd and the Labor party.
Rupert Murdoch is after all an arch-capitalist and employs hard right editors. He had no effect whatsoever on the NSW state election.
It grieves me that this election has been simplified in the media as just a duel between the old John Howard and the new Kevin Rudd.
It is a very significant election in terms of where Australia is heading.
It is so much more than a joust between two male bulls.
We are down the end of John Howard’s dry gully with nothing in sight.
We have had eleven and a half years of hard right conservative.
government. Look where it has got us – a diminished international reputation as a result of our Iraq invasion and fawning over George W Bush, a squandering of the proceeds of the minerals boom, a gigantic trading debt and a significant loss of civil liberties. No progress has been made to deal with the most important issue of our time – global warming and its devastating consequences. Our health and education infrastructure are in ruins and inflation is about to break out as a result of John Howard’s profligacy.
What we need is a sea change. Our current government led by John Howard is truly a government of the 20th century. It has not renewed itself.
This election is not just about two men. It’s about whether we move forward as a nation or we stay stuck in the old conservative past.
It’s out most important election in thirty years.
LTEP – I think it has to do with your level of pessimism. You’re pessimistic to the point of tantamount support
Personally, I feel like giving LTEP a big hug and saying “It will be alright mate !”
Gary, further to that argument, if you look back historically you’ll see roughly the same issues going to each party at about the same percentage. Labor is always rated better with Health, Industrial Relations etc. The Coalition is always rated better with the Economy.
Issues polls are basically completely irrelevant as people revert to stereotypes on the parties, regardless of the party’s performance in the area. The more important figures are the primary vote, and I’d say other questions, such as who you trust more. On both of these, the ALP has been polling well in front. We’ll see if that continues to election day.
The ‘howard polls well’ headline is already gone from the front of the news.com.au website – replaced with the ‘Tax Cuts for the rich’ message.
Delightful.
RGee, of course I don’t support the Coalition. I can’t think of one thing they’ve done right in 11 years. Then again, I don’t know anyone who’s voted for them since 1996 (when just about everyone I know voted for them), so I can consider my anecdotal evidence pretty moot.
I’m just trying to get into the psyche of the public who has returned this government on 3 occasions, twice resoundingly. To do this, I have to put myself into a frame of mind alien to my own, which is what I think the ALP tacticians should be doing. Plan for the worst and hopefully get the best result.
Lose the election – I’m sorry if I’ve wrongly accused you of being a stooge but if you are a very negative ALP supporter I must say I personally find your negativity off putting because I don’t think it is based on the facts at hand. If I felt you had a good case I would say so but having someone wishing the ALP would win then constantly down playing their chances on flimsy evidence is not my idea political fun. Stop jumping at shadows. That’s all I’m trying to say.
LTEP – “Issues polls are basically completely irrelevant as people revert to stereotypes on the parties, regardless of the party’s performance in the area. The more important figures are the primary vote, and I’d say other questions, such as who you trust more. On both of these, the ALP has been polling well in front. We’ll see if that continues to election day.”
Now you’re talking and I agree with you 100%. That is why I believe nothing much will change over the campaign. You have made my case. I don’t believe this government is trusted anymore. The Libs have tried the throwing of money around – nothing has changed over the year. They’ve dog whistled – nothing has changed over the year. What does change is the primary vote when IR becomes the centre of attention – Labor’s vote goes up and that issue is yet to take off again. It will.
From comments here and yesterday, the ’shock and awe’ tax policy of the Libs seems to have dented the morale of Labor supporters. But it’s really just the media reaction, not the view of voters which is what counts. Some journos in the GG are criticising Labor for not having their tax policy ready which is facile considering the Opposition didn’t have the Treasury information that Costello had. We’re only in Day 4 and there is a long way to go. Newspoll next Monday should be a good indicator. BTW, last night I saw the replay of the Howard gaffe on ACA on Mon, his grunt and pi–ed off expression at the end of the I/V was not nice, look of an angry old man.
Gary, I think that LTEP is just more of a realist than a lot of the other ALP supporters on here.
Being a natural pessimist myself, I understand where he’s coming from. And the ‘head in the sand’ downright chirpy optimism one sees on sites like this can be just as off putting to those of a more negative countenance!
I wrote this piece three months ago when this drivel was trotted out then.
http://forums.ozelection2007.info/viewtopic.php?id=148
Fear not comrades, there will be the dead cat bounce in the polls next week and they will all cream themselves, but that’s all it will be. The following poll will be back to 55/45. the election 53/47
I see Mr Shanahan over at the Govt Gazette is at it again. How about this little gem: “The Coalition has stretched its commanding lead over Labor on the key vote-changing issues of the economy and national security.”
Labor’s commanding lead on everything else is described as merely “comfortable”, with nary a mention of “vote-changing.”
Poor Dennis. Custer had a “commanding lead” over the Indians in the key “battle-determining” areas of surprise and mobility too, but he still got creamed. It could have had something to do with the Indians’ “comfortable” 50 or 60-to-one lead in manpower, weaponry and combat effectiveness.
Keep bugling Garryowen for the Colonel by all means Dennis, but if you want to hang onto my scalp, I wouldn’t ride down into that valley with him, if I was you.
I will go out on a limb here, and say that the next Newspoll will be 57-43. I think that people will see through the tax cuts as a vote-buying exercise and will make their views known. Watch the panic spread through Liberal ranks then!
Evan – good post! Yes, Dennis is pathetic as he scrabbles among the poll figures trying to find a Howard gem among the dross.
Sinic – quite possible BUT – Labor will have to put out some other attarctive policies in the next few days.
Look, we can’t tell how things have been going in this campaign until the first opinion poll taken after the tax cuts come out. Assuming it takes 3 days to build a proper sample, the earliest we can expect one out is tomorrow (no idea if this will happen, but hopefully it does).
I have to say I’m annoyed at The Oz’s editorial today, criticising Labor for not releasing their tax policy. They even have the nerve to suggest that Labor may not have had a tax policy prior to the government’s tax cuts, which (I’m sorry) is a complete joke – Labor have been on record for weeks saying that they have a tax policy and they’re waiting for the appropriate time to release it.
As for the dramatic fall for Labor’s national security ratings, I give you one word for an explanation:
McLelland
Is agree wholeheartedly with #39 when he says: “he ’shock and awe’ tax policy of the Libs seems to have dented the morale of Labor supporters.”
I think maybe too many of us have been reading the GG. Its coverage so far has been incredibly biased with everything that happens being spun as the Coalition on its way back.
I think they are channeling Crosby -Textor and trying their best to create and build a sense that the coalition will come from behind and win. They only have 6 weeks so their coverage with that theme has to be intense.
The likes of Janet and Dennis are in full flight. Its painful to watch, but you have to step back a little and try and keep a balanced perspective. Really, only one thing of note has happened so far in the campaign. Libs have announced $34 billion in bribes. Its such a major announcement that nothing else will get traction until there are polls out at the end of this week, and then any movement / not-movement in the polls will be the story.
The debate i think will be a non-issue. JWH turning up and speaking to 200 hand picked LNP supporters?? Well, i think talking may not be the only thing he does to himself at the moment……
It will be interesting to see how KR plays this. I hope he flat out refuses to turn up under Rattus’s rules and then hammer him for cowardice.
Or, the ALP releases its tax policy on Sunday 1 hour before the debate is due to start, and media attention gets firmly diverted from a little git doing himself on stage alone, to something of substance to the actual campaign.
People say its early days in the campaign. Bollocks, its been on since January, and the ALP have been winning this campaign convincingly so far. 5 1/2 more weeks is a long time in politics people and the Coalition are the ones in deep deep manure.
Yes, imacca, let us all take solace from the fact that The Oz is the least read of the daily newspapers and that all the other dailies seem to be more interested in Ben Cousins than the Newspoll…
imacca wrote: “I hope he flat out refuses to turn up under Rattus’s rules and then hammer him for cowardice.”
According to Crikey, Penny Wong has said “Instead, he’ll duck this debate in favour of three others.” The “he” is Kevin Rudd.
I live in Mitchell (as safe a lib seat as there is) and received a letter from Alex Hawke yesterday. It was the usual experience vs unions rubbish, 70% union bosses, $1 trillion dollar economy but he also tacked on that if he was elected he would:
1. Crack down on hoons and vandals so local families can live in safe and secure neighbourhoods (yeah, all those hoons at Hillsong and at the Piazza at Castle Hill!!)
2. Improve local school facilities and services so our children can etc. etc. ( a state function me thinks)
3. Make local roads safer by IDing required upgrades and fixing local blackspots (a council and state function as well, I thought).
Then he encloses as a post-script a postal vote form.
Now, I read yesterday a few lib candidates were sending these things around, but in Mitchell? And hitting on issues like these? Is this a nationwide postal campaign which just lists the same issues everywhere?
Just seems a bit strange to me – why would they be hitting those points?
Rudd not turning up for Howard’s debate on Sunday would be very risky so Rudd will be there. Rudd will cream Howard as the rodent is not a good debater (both Beazley and Latham beat him). Rudd can still accuse Howard of cowardice by continuing to call for a second or third debate during the campaign. BTW, I think the ‘worm’ is going to trouble Howard. People want to see it during the debate, so Howard will look arrogant if he refuses to have it.
Burgey, the Liberal Party strategists have highlighted that at this election they will be running local campaigns on top of the national campaign. This is why we’re getting flushed with letters explaining the local members’ concerned about graffiti and ‘hoons’.
They’re hoping people forget they’re not areas of federal responsibility and that individual members have next to no control over these issues in any case. To me, it seems lame, but obviously C/T have advised them to run with this.
These headlines by the News Limited papers and the approach by the Coalition are designed to panic the ALP. If you read below the headlines there is nothing in it. If you look at the numbers Newspoll and Morgan Poll (issues poll) are very good for the ALP.
It appears that the tactics are working on a few ALP supporters here. However, Kevin and his supporters have taken their time on nearly every issue that has been thrown at them this year and come out on top. This little period will be no exception.
The new tax policy won’t do much more than give some confidence to those who were already planning to vote for the coalition. IMHO, it is not much of a vote changer.
And the reason for this is that the hype created in the media about it simply fails to match the ACTUAL amount of pork. The most common reaction that I am hearing, and I have been holidaying on the NSW north coast and now back down here in Melbourne where I live, is that receiving twenty or thirty dollars more per week is virtually pointless as it will probably be eaten up by increasing costs of living and higher interest rates by the time it all comes fully into effect in a few years time. In short, people don’t think it will help them much at all.
The media response has been overdone, and I actually suspect that a LOT of Australians realise this. People do want tax cuts. But they want BIG cuts that make an appreciable difference to their standard of living, especially during an era where the cost of living seems to be going up so rapidly.
So, just like the tax cuts in the May budget, when the media also overcooked their positive response, most voters will be cynical.
But one additional thing to come out of this is that the disconnect between Howard’s actual policy and the media hype around it might actually serve to further highlight the pro-Howard bias in much of the media that has already become widely known around many segments of the population. This will further increase the level of cynicism about reports of Howard, where anything positive is quickly dismissed, which I suspect has been happening all year anyway.
New Headline:”Australian Voters Give Fourth Estate The Bird.”
Admittedly, Labor have an “unfair” advantage / edge over Coalition when releasing their tax plan after Coalition
I think Howard is panicked now. He pushed so hard to force Labor rushing out a “premature” tax plan.
Labor will take time to study Howard tax plan and will put forward their version, presumably / expected to be superior to Howard’s.
Until that time, we will see Howard and Costello jump up and down like hell
The people who are criticising the tax cut proposal are the same people who’ll denigrate the government as the highest taxing in history.
Make up your mind. The hypocrisy is astonishing.
Burgey post 51 -
I live in Boothby in Adelaide and received similar sh&t from Andrew Southcott the sitting Liberal member. Basically mine sounds the same as what you received…however there was one about securing water supply for families (buggar people who aren’t in families -they can dehydrate) then the next 2 were improving local roads and crackdown on local hoons by installing CCTV cameras in “local crime hotspots” so “families” can live free from fear…again stuff those who aren’t in a family they can be bashed to death!!!! Plus all the trash about unions & inexperience. This is from a local member who is utterly useless…
Fire Maker 54
You beat me to it. The worst thing Labor and its supporters can do now is panic.
rcandelori,
Not many people are criticising the tax cuts themselves (at least, I’m not). What we’re criticising is Howard + Costello + half the MSM jumping up and down demanding Rudd release his tax policy immediately, as if the Coalition had a god-given right to tell Labor when they have to release their policies.
For the record, I think the tax cuts are good, but they should have focussed more on cutting company tax and providing incentives for R+D to take place in Australia.
“These headlines by the News Limited papers and the approach by the Coalition are designed to panic the ALP. ”
Firemaker, I agree. It is an attempt to create momentum for the coalition and to give Labor the jitters, but the hype is already sounding hollow. With just one bad poll for Howard, the whole exercise simply collapses.
I’m not suggesting they have a god-given right to demand ALP policies be released immediately, but one has to wonder why something as essential as tax policy, has taken over 10 months to release. The public are entitled to know, they’ve heard enough dodging from Rudd – we’re at the business end of the election cycle now. Substance counts, and so far, the Coalition has the runs on the board.
rcandelori,
Simple reason – the government has had access to the updated budget figures for weeks now and so could fine-tune their tax policy to fit accordingly. Labor has had access to these updated numbers for 2 days. It would have been irresponsible for them (and the Coalition would have said so) to release their tax policy before these numbers came out.
I don’t think it would be unfair for Labor to spend a couple more days analysing these numbers before releasing their tax policy, would you?
Howard in 1996 did not release his tax policy until three weeks into the election campaign. He bolted in.
The Age Polls:
ALP land package
Do you think Labor’s housing plan is a vote-winner?
Yes – 71%
No – 29%
Tax cuts : Will Peter Costello’s announcement of tax cuts worth $34 billion change your vote?
Yes – 15%
No – 85%
Total Votes: 4023 Poll date: 15/10/07
http://www.theage.com.au/polls/results.html
It is the same old story people are no longer listening to John Howard even if he comes up with a good policy.
Howards time is past the public are over him.
Does anyone seriously think all the voters out there are chomping at the bit to hear about tax policy. Talk about boring.
Tax cuts are good headlines, but noone really cares about the detail.
AM, compare those results to the results on the news.com.au website.
Online polls are not to be believed.
I don’t know whether someone has mentioned this already, but at the end of the Today Show on Ch. 9 this morning, they gave the results of their morning poll on whether the worm should be used in the debate. The poll was a narrow win for the pro-wormers.
Anyway, the poll would be irrelevant EXCEPT they said that on the basis of that poll the station manager (sorry, forgot his official title) had decided that they will be using the worm during Sunday’s debate.
Can the PM stop them using it if they aren’t the “official” broadcaster (which is presumably Sky for this debate)?
Well I don’t think you can be more blatant in electioneering for the Government than that. It has been apparent Labor has had something because they have been refering to what they intend in it. YET the editorial prefers to try and denigrate Labor so it can push up Howard – and they invent their own truth. Mitchell ought to be ashamed of himself. I think after this election the GG needs to be publically bought to account. These are some of the other things that need to be fixed in this country.
Assuming (as Shanahan does) that people are lying when they list economy and national security down the order of saliency, the best that could have been spun out of this poll is that small to modest changes in them had no effect on voting intentions.
One explanation for this is that the polls don’t measure intensity either – people might think neither party has much control over economy and external risks, or have v.similar policies. But when asked for an answer by a polite sounding stranger, the non-partisan will go with the stereotypical answer. Similarly on the environment/water, where Labor’s lead is thin, though in truth much larger given the Greens flow on to Labor ahead of the Coalition.
63 – rcandelori and others here should take a cold shower. Labor couldn’t put out a tax policy at the same time as the Libs as Labor aren’t the government (yet). Costello had access to the current budget figures from Traeasury, Labor did not. rudd will presnt his tax policy when he has (responsibly) assessed the budget figures. Who’s panicking? Howard, I’d say. Labor is sitting with a 12% lead in the polls at the start of an election campaign.
Whether Rudd releases a tax policy now, next week, or the week after is immaterial. It will be released in the next few weeks. So, who the hell cares, other than Howard, Costello, and rcandelori?
Personally, I’m quite content watching the two-headed Prime Ministerial monster jumping up and down trying to bully Rudd into a corner. It just reinforces the impression of Howard as mean and tricky…
I got exactly the same blurb letter in Higgins about the CCTV rubish. Maybe all the new cameras can be linked up to Canbera so the prime minister cankeep an eye on everyone. They could install speakers too. You could hear (in a Howard voice) “Hey cut that out, you’ve been a bad citizen, go to room 101 Winston”.
Macaroni, they are the highest taxing government in history 28% of GDP, it is a fact, and irelevant if we like it or not.
rcandelori – Why would they? It plays into Howard’s hands if they do, they look panicked and possibly release a half baked policy. Strategically, the right thing to do is hold out. Rudd has tapped into an anti-politician mood, and the longer Howard and Costello jump around demanding a tax policy the sillier the two of them will look.
Fairfax papers are not as bias as News Com papers and so, are more reliable.
I thought I was the eternal Labor pessimist: LTEP has stolen my thunder.
I wouldn’t even piss on the Government Gazette these days. It’s nothing more than a propoganda sheet for the Rodent. Uncle Rupert obviously has put the call out to back the Howard government, and the likes of the editorial staff and Shanahan are happily complying.
The next lot of polls will tell the story. If there’s no swing back to the government, I suspect a lot of Liberals will be in a panic.
Rudd and Labor have to hold their nerve, don’t dance to Howard/Smirky’s tune, put out the tax policy when they are good and ready. And, if Rudd makes a virtue of spending more of the 34 billion on health/education/infastructure spending/nation building, that’ll hold him in good stead.
Surely it will be possible to set up a “worm” via the internet to measure people’s reaction to how the debaters go, no-matter what Howard wants???
swing lowe,
They’ve had access to budget figures for months, even if they are not the absolute latest figures.
In any event, we haven’t heard the philosophy of the policy –> whether it believes in tax cuts for all, or only for the poor, or whatever.
In the end, after 10 months, Rudd is being a little prescious when he asks for more time whilst labelling the government arrogant and out of touch. The only people being arrogant and out of touch is the ALP.
And when did Howard release his tax policy in 1996? At a time that suited him, which from memory was two seeks before polling day. This is just childish political point-scoring. I don’t blame Howard for doing it, he’s just playing the political game. I do blame the Murdoch press for uncritically echoing Howard’s line, which shows gross political bias (not surprising really)
For all you dopey Liberals. How come, if Howard and Costello knew of the true state of the economy, the release of this current tax package, why wasn’t it done back at the budget? The budget is the most appropriate time for a tax package and they could have done it then – but didn’t.
“rcandelori” are you from Crosby and Textor?
Its just that you sound like them.
And Rudd hasn’t “asked for more time.” Don’t tell lies. He has says he will release his tax policy when he decides to release it.
Shanahan and the Oz are just plain shameless!
The newspoll figures rated issues in the order of importance determined by surveyed voters. Of the nine issues, Health/Medicare, Water planning, Education and the Environment comprised the top four. On those top four issues, Labor lead the coalition by 14,4,20 and 14 points respectively. Despite these FACTS, the Australian insists that the P.Ms stocks are on the rise – next week’s special investigation by the Australian……..”Can a full head of hair confuse decision-making, putting our great nation at risk of terrorist attack?” A panel of emininently bald Australians conservatives discuss the powerful decision-making advantage held by our shiny-headed P.M.
Recent surveys indicate that Australians are concerned about a range of issues impacting their children’s future – we here at The Australian understand these concerns which is why we have concluded that we will decide which issues are of concern to Australian voters and the manner in which those concerns are expressed.
“even if they are not the absolute latest figures.” So their modelling would be wrong? Riiiiight…
Next issue please.
You can’t release a tax policy of any note unless you have the up to date figures and Labor has only just received them. They will release their policy when they are good and ready. nothing says they have to do otherwise.
As for the nervous nellies and negative thinkers, by all means worry yourselves sick but at least do it on factual well thought out evidence rather than the flimsy arguments presented here.
The GG has been running its anti Labor campaign all year and we know how influentila that has been. For heaven sake be like the vast majority of the reading public and don’t read the bloody thing.
rcandelori,
Rudd’s philosophy for his policy is outlined here:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600616-5013871,00.html
And for the rest of you, I urge you all to take part in this survey, so The Oz may understand that not everyone in this country are Coalition-voters:
http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=13&lang=en
The polls are going to all over the place for the next few weeks.
Yes the next Newspoll might have ALP 54 to Coalition 46 but the next after that could well be 56-44 or even 57-43. Check out how the polls went in previous times just before the election. They yo-yoed up and down. Chances are the final result will be close but more likely 52.5 ALP to 47.5% Coalition than the other way around.
influential
No. 82
Why is it that because someone shows a modicum of difference in terms of their political views, they are accused as some sort of stooge for the Liberal party?
The way all of you expound such a nauseating level of love for Rudd, can hardly be labelled fair and balanced. The hypocrisy and double standards continue.
rcandelori
A bit better than you’re posting in the other thread, but still…
The government has plenty of substance, you’re right.
12 years of substance.
2-3 days of debatable substance cannot counter what is already on the table.
If both sides started from the same starting point – your point might be arguable, but turning fundamentalist with 6 weeks to go?
Given the public reaction yesterday, and the reaction to the last (bigger) tax cut, why do you think tax policy is essential?
Given the only data released comparing pre and post AWA wages please compare and contrast the monetary values with those proposed in the tax cuts?
rcandelori , saurely economic vandals can be the Highest Taxing Government in the History of Australia and give unfair tax cuts biased to the rich at the same time.
LOL. An internet worm? Don’t let one of those onto your computer, or it will screw up more than just your opinions.
Seriously though, I would have thought that Ch 9 could have their own “audience” watching with the worm. I suspect the PM only has control over what happens in the debating hall, and he can stipulate that there be no worm machines. But I can’t see that he would be able to make rules about how individual stations broadcast it… so if they want to set up their own worm, why not?
Plus, Channel 9 is probably pretty annoyed that they got shafted for Sky TV this time around. I suspect they’ll do their best to get a worm up and running just to piss off Howard. It will deliver better ratings too… I know which station I’ll be watching if one has the worm and another doesn’t.
PM reported last night that Labor had picked up its 200 tickets for Sunday’s debate. Sounds to me like they are going despite the bravado for last nights TV.
If they are going to the debate they wont be going without a tax policy in place. Of course JWH didnt release his tax policy in 1996 – he was a known commodity and didnt need to. KR is liked as is shown by the polls but he does need to fill in a few gaps – and he has made an issue of his own economic credibility. It will be very damaging for him if he blows the tax policy debate.
I would love to be a fly on the wall in KR central. Which way does he jump? He should have just come out and matched them immediately – if he lets it linger it just gives JWH traction and he looks silly if he takes 2 weeks to say – me too.
Far be it for me to advise all those clever people in Rudd’s office but here are a couple of election winners. First, promise to reduce HECS – this will win the Gen Y vote and their boomer parents vote too. Second, make child care costs tax deductable – this is the hot button issue for ‘working families’.
As I suspected, the tax cuts have slipped out of the news very rapidly… not much bang for buck at all for 34 billion dollars.
If the Libs are hoping for a jump in the opinion polls as a result of this I really don’t think it’s going to happen. I’m predicting the next Newspoll will be the same as all the others which have gone before: 55+ for Labor.
The poll is misleading. Even though it has IR as the lowest concern at 49% it is the issue most likely to affect votes at the end of the day simply because of the draconian nature of WorkChoices and its real impact on people [not just imagined].
The Morgan poll I think is much more revealing as it points to the issues that people genuinely feel concern about. After the election, when people are in power and can do things – what really worries you? 21% say LNP on IR AND 23% say Labor on the Economy. Doesn’t seem like a very high level of concern on these issues and, they balance out.
People when it comes down to it are not really concerned so much about Labor and the economy. They say the Govt is better at it, not that Labor can’t hack it. The same goes with Security. Really, Labor still needs to inform the public about the source of our economic prosperity – it will work. People will listen because they can see the effects right now – China, resources boome etc – it all falls into place.
The only two areas where the Govt is ahead are the ones caused by encumbancy. That it is behind in all other areas should be disturbing as it is a commentary/report card on their performance to date. The voters are saying the Govt hasn’t been good at these things and, probably Labor would be better.
Sorry, not that kind of worm!
Nope, Howard has insisted that in order to be provided with a feed of the debate, broadcasters have to agree to not to set up any kind of audience reaction-measuring system (”worm”)
rcandelor – if you don’t like it here …..
rcandelori:
Your are welcome to your opinion, but it is a load of rubbish and doesnt stand up to scrutiny.
Steve,
The same rubbish about the tax cuts being unfair is churned out every time there’s a tax cut.
The fact is that the lowest income earners pay the least amount of tax, so of course the dollar-per-week figure is going to be lower. In any event, people in the highest tax bracket work just as much, have families like everyone else and pay tens of thousands of their income in tax, so I believe they are just as entitled to tax cuts as anyone else.
Furthermore, according to Ross Gittins in today’s SMH, he says that the cuts are roughly equal on a cents-in-the-dollar analysis. http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/tax-cuts-are-a-pms-best-friend/2007/10/16/1192300767464.html
No. 100
AM, you’re posts hardly demonstrate authority. The extent of your infantile argument is accusing people of being stooges.
I haven’t heard one person talk about the tax cuts. Rcandleori you still haven’t explained why this will have an impact when the Budget tax cuts didn’t.
Rcandelori, answer the question please: when did Howard release his tax policy in 1996?
rcandelori,
Please enlighten me on whether Howard released his tax policy early on in the 1996 campaign. I distinctly recall that it was released in the third week. Howard is trying this desperate strategy in the hopes of Rudd releasing an incomplete policy. Of course, it is expected that Howard would try and bully the opposition in this way: the stakes are very high (think political irrelevency). Rudd is smart to hold out: it is obviously irking the Coalition, their supporters, and Young Liberals everywhere. If the response on talkback radio is anything to go by, the tax cuts are bing seen as a bribe and nothing more by the majority. Next week’s polls will be insightful.
rcandelori – if you want to participate, then be prepared to cop some flak.
Ok, it seems that we’re doing what we always do – gang up on the conservative blogger, which inevitably ends up with he or she leaving this site and we end up having our daily love-in, waiting for ESJ and Glen to pop up…
We shouldn’t insult rcandelori’s intelligence, but seriously dude, you can’t come up with unsubstantiated statements without back up…
Howard’s 1996 strategy is immaterial. We are in 2007. Times have changed.
Anyone got a date for the next major poll release? (and no smart responses like, “yeah, I’m taking my mate’s sister to the movies and we’ll read it there.”)
I answered the questionnaire at the Australian website. My answer to the question on why I would vote Labor was “Sticking it up The Australian.” I suggest others answer the same way.
1 Lose the election please. Someone obviously in complete denial. Saying it is, won’t make it so.
“Howard’s 1996 strategy is immaterial. We are in 2007. Times have changed.” Wrong, fail, reveal yourself as a lying Liberal stooge. End of debate. Next please.
Swing Lowe,
That is the approach of all online forums towards conservatives. Apparently it is a heinous act to have a difference of opinion.
The fact is, most people’s statements here are unsubstantiated suckups to Labor. I’d prefer a debate on the substance.
Sadly “Glen’s” appearances will be less over the coming weeks, the Senator has some special projects for him.
Perth@21
I think Ben C should have got dressed before he got arrested. But then again maybe this is a way of the WA Police improving their image “Look at the std of criminal we arrest, hot aren’t they”
rcandelori,
This, unfortunately, is the type of unsubstantiated rubbish that’s going to cop you some flak on this blog. If you are going to say something like this, explain why (i.e, why have things changed so much over the past 11 years that the timing of the release of tax policy by the Opposition is now so different?)
Re 114
You obviously dont know your own Liberal Party, no one is allowed to have an opinion that is different to theirs.
Unsubstantiated? Do you deny that you are a Young Liberal, rcandelori? I distinctly recall that you admitted to it on the old insidepolitics forums when they still existed. So when people are accusing you of being a stooge, they are telling the truth. If I am wrong, please let me know.
No. 113
AM, of course they don’t make any sense to you. How inconvenient.
We’re yet to here anything resembling a substantive argument from you.
rcandelori – if times have changed, why does Howard heep mentioning Labor’s 17% interest rates from 1989? as he did just yesterday.
rcandelori – if times have changed, why does Howard keep mentioning Labor’s 17% interest rates from 1989? – as he did just yesterday.
“I’d prefer a debate on the substance.” – So provide some evidence instead of recycling Liberal Party lines.
ESJ — Well, I’m glad you’re not employed as a Labor strategist then! If Rudd has come out immediately and matched the cuts… you can’t get more “me too” than that surely. That would be asking for it IMO.
They will wait a bit and then come out with a different package. Sadly I don’t think it will be dramatically different, but enough so that it doesn’t look the same as the Libs. Given the debate is this weekend, it may be that they will release their tax policy on Saturday.
# 94 – Edward, I disagree with you entirely. It would be much wiser of Rudd to keep his powder dry on tax for a while yet. (As has been noted, Howard didn’t release his in ‘96 for several weeks into the campaign and, like ‘96, this election is much more about the incumbent than the aspirant.)
By the middle of next week, the polls will indicate whether Howard has got a bounce from his tax cuts. If so, Rudd can frame his response accordingly. If not, Rudd can spend that money in other places…like childcare rebates, hospitals, renewable energy projects…and maybe some new boots for our soldiers and a couple of tanks which work.
No,he doesn’t have to match them at all ESJ.
What he has to show he can be fiscally responsible,and target his tax spending to areas that actually need funding like Health,Education,Infrastructure,the Environment,Child Care,Climate Change. to name a few.
As a voter I would happily forgo my tax cuts for improvements and extra funding in the above services .The tax cuts are going to do nothing but raise interest rates and any benefit is gone in mortgage payments to the banks.
Ive not seen Janet Albrechtsen on tv before yesterday and she seeMs to have lost the glasses? Anyway more of the same from her in the GG. How can she be serious claiming the rodent is a conviction politician not least with his latest about face on reconciliation? In fact if you substitute Howard for Rudd in her article you have an almost perfect analysis of Howard- the man who said and did anything to become and stay PM.
Not much sign today of the tax plan that has wrong footed and KO’ed the ALP-Ben Cousins you beauty!
God… another 5.5 weeks of this?
No. 117
Times have changed because Kevin Rudd has been tirading against the government about a so-called “plan for the future”, yet after 10 months of questioning from the media, the best we received was a gaffe regarding the tax scales. Where is Mr Rudd’s plan for the future? It is distinctly lacking thus far.
Ben Cousins is a Labor party stooge.
Re Am’s “Fairfax papers are not as bias as News Com papers..
Does anybody know what ratio of our 121 million dollars went to Rupert. Not that I’m a conspiracy theorist or anything.
rcandelori – If you watch Rudd talk you’ll see his five fingers. His plan for the future is more than tax cuts.
No. 127
I think you’ll find that Keating dug his own grave.
rcandelori:
You sound like the Devil himself, John Howard I mean.
No 129,
I disagree with you on the fact that Rudd has a vision for the future, but I’m too tired/exhausted (like LTEP @ 128) about this election already for the day. I’ll be back later in the day, but I’m off to watch baseball.
Apologies for the rubbish answer, but I can’t believe that there’s 38 days more of this to go…
So was Janet A wearing those undies – leather, fur and studs. She is a weirdo!
Gecko
Good point.
# 129 – Candles, Rudd has used his messages about broadband, climate change and IR to position himself as a man with a plan for the future. In this, he has been incredibly successful. You may rant against this..and it may be that this perception is an illusion…but it’s a very real perception all the same.
See: “Headland Speeches”.
No. 132
LOL.
If a journalist asks Rudd, “what is your plan for the future?”, Rudd will reply “well, I have a plan for the future, unlike Mr Howard etc etc”
You don’t have a plan just by saying you have one and pointing at your fingers.
candle… Howard’s plan for the future is a tax cut. That’s it. I think Rudd will find it tough to match that stunning vision.
However, I didn’t really think this was a debating website.
ESJ@115: That’s pretty good. Give rcandelori some of your jokes…s/he’s grating.
Not much psephology going on today i see…..
.
.
Edward,
Does that mean Glen has joined the Dirt Unit? Digging through Julia’s hairdresser boyfriend’s garbage bins perhap?
I understand “Glen” has been given the chicken suit and will be appearing shortly with KR on the outskirts of Brisbane. I am unsure what other special projects Senator M has in mind for “Glen”.
The Senator is also upset “Tabitha” has been neglecting blogging duty. It will mean “John of Melbourne” has to be reallocated.
Isn’t that a promotion for Glen?
Reading the GG is like going through the looking glass. Its trippy, weird, and makes a good tale later, but really bears no actual relationship to electoral reailty.
I think the campaign going swimmingly for Rudd so far. Better ads, more fresh material, the coalition has stuck with the nuclear vote killer (baha!), and ALP leads on 6 of 8 issues in a generational shift election. Plus the coaltion has shot its load too early. Not much dough in the campaign barrel. And workschoices stinks as bad as it did 6 months back.
Howard is in seriously deep sh*t. His primary is way, way too low to win.
Dont believe otherwise until you see the coalition 2pp anywhere near the ALP primary.
Wow, just found this website and can see that 99% of comments are from lefty Labor voters/staffers. What is it with you lefties dominating blogs? Is it because you’re still at uni studying your 3rd arts degree? Viva la Ruddulucion eh….
Yes it is. The Senator believes in incentivation of youth.
Can we PLEASSEEE get back to discussion of the issues poll, rather than all these endless cycles of Conservatives vs Lefties bashing each other up?
Concerning the issues poll, Labor has a lead on the top 4 issues. This becomes even bigger in the case of water and environment, when you consider that most of the “others” in these issues would be saying Greens would be better. Thus centre-left parties are a long way ahead of the centre-right on the top 4 issues.
On IR, the 49% who rate it as important is not an indication of the vote influence. Most people are not affected by Workchoices, and so it’s not of primary importance to them. However, there’s a large minority that is affected, and for whom IR would be of the highest importance. These people are the ones who have shifted to Labor over IR. The Crosby Textor analysis at Possum is revealing; Workchoices is a big vote driver for Labor.
The odds of a rate rise are increasing:
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
If the next set of inflation figures are not good, looks like Howard will have a rate rise to deal close to the poll. It’ll be interesting to see how he spins it, if it happens.
I watched Nine news here in Sydney last night. The election story was seventh, just before the first ad break.
That represents the opinion of the News Director about the level of election interest in the wider community after a long year of campaigning.
Very bad news for Howard. He’s so far behind he needs people to pay attention now. The Australian can write every lead story from here to poll day on economic issues if it wants, but no voters-that-matter are reading it. They’re watching the 6pm news.
So cheer up everyone. Except you, Candles. You can stay depressed and narky.
I hope Glen is protecting his nuggets
That is becuase of the release of the Westpac survey:
“The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity, released today, increased by 1.5 points in August, taking the annualised growth rate of the index to 5.6 per cent.
The index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, remained above its long term trend of 4.3 per cent in August.
The annualised growth rate of the coincident index, meanwhile, was 4.5 per cent, above its long-term trend of 3.7 per cent.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600743-12377,00.html
# 108 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 10:38 am
Answer the question, when did Howard release his tax policy in the election campaign in 1996?
Times have changed alright… now Howard is on the receiving end.
My parents live in Benelong & they’ve had a letter from their local member asking if there was any potholes in their area that need fixing!
No. 151
I’m far from depressed.
I’m actually laughing the ALP zealotry around here. None of you live in the real word.
John@147, I think it’s a) We Lefties are more motivated to get rid of Howare, and b), the Tories are losing, and you don’t cheer when your team’s getting thrashed.
# 120 rcandelori Says:
# 120 rcandelori Says:
We’re yet to have any substantive argument from you as to why the ALP should act any differently with its tax policy than Howard did in 1996.
No. 154
You love going over old ground. The question has been duly answered.
# 156 rcandelori Says:
The real world is feeling the very real effects of having their working conditions eroded by workchoices, and chronic underfunding in health (bulk billing and aged care, + the dramatic reduction in federal funding to hospitals) and education (enough said).
Seems the Uniting church aren’t happy.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061756.htm?section=justin
#160 rcandelori Says:
October 17th, 2007 at 11:10 am
In your words, “how inconvenient” it must be to not have a substantive argument, and to simply try (unsuccessfully) to denigrate people for not ‘living in the real world’.
The liberal government stands for nothing but hate, fear, lies and smear. You are doing nothing more than hammering that point home.
#160
Typical circular logic from a Young Lib. Why not just answer the question? What Rudd has or has not said up to this point doesn’t somehow render irrelevent the fact that Howard ran a very similar small-target campaign against Keating in 1996. Methinks you are upset that it seems to be working for the ALP. Rudd will not be bullied by the likes of you into releasing a tax policy.
rcandelori – I think you are a Liberal staffer. Your comments indicate that you are waiting for the rabbit to pop out and for the polls to ‘inevitably’ turn for Howard.
No. 161
Chronic underfunding of health? Health spending has increased by over $30 billion in the time of the Howard Government, and is set to increase yet again in the next health agreement with the states.
The fact is that when you try to have a discussion on federal issues, people blame the Howard government for problems caused by incompetent state LABOR governments. Perhaps you should be asking the tough questions to Reba Meagher, or Iemma and the rat pack.
# 120 rcandelori Says:
We’re yet to have any substantive argument from you as to why the ALP should act any differently with its tax policy than Howard did in 1996.
Well… I’ve just read the replies again, and there’s still no answer to the simple question. At what point in the 1996 election did Howard release his tax policy?
Scared to answer the question?
156 rcandelori
I’m happy to chat about politics, the election or whatever. There’s no doubt there’s ALP zealotry around here, but please lift the debate – what do you mean by the ‘real world’? The main emphasis here is psephology – the study of polling data.
Do you believe the last 12 months of polling are incorrect or misrepresentative? (We need to start from some common ground with this discussion!!!)
I think it’s time to revisit the possibility of starting a proper electotral blog at my website. This endless round of nyah-nyah-nyah isn’t worth reading any more.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22599096-952,00.html
“The Nationals candidate for Leichhardt, Ian Crossland, said yesterday he did not think the seat was suitable for a woman.
The Liberals’ candidate is female – former Howard Government adviser Charlie McKillop.”
Vote National Party – A one way ticket back to the 19th century.
Happy if Rudd and labor said they would maintain status quo on tax until after they get in and can inspect the books before deciding on any changes to tax.
Last time Howard lost office as Fraser’s treasurer he kept secret the largest deficit in Australia’s history. The Howard government has been the most secretive, especially in the withholding and distortion of information that should be publically available.
Before any company takes over another they are allowed an detailed inspection of the books to ensure that what they are buying is as portrayed.
This should apply in politics, allow labor unlimited access to the books so that there is no nasty surpreises like before when they take government.
No. 164
How dare you accuse me of being a party stooge. The level of disingenuous commentary around here is unbelievably in favour of Rudd, so pure logic would suggest a bunch of die-hard ALP supporters, content in their delusion.
166 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Has federal health funding increased at the same rate as the states have increased funding?
Yes or no?
What percentage of hospital funding is covered by the federal government now? What was it 10 years ago?
Well? Answer the question.
127 Tory Crimes – re Janet A – I’ve seen her on TV and she is a lot more attractive than the piccies in the GG. – BUT, her column today is just crap. She says that Rudd is running a presidential style campaign but Howard won’t. Where has she been? All campaigns now are built aroung the leader so are presidential. Howard has been a one-man-band for his whole time as PM. The problem for Howard/Costello is that there isn’t a leader, there are two!!
I’d be happy to have intelligent socratic debate.
173
The Federal Government introduced the GST which has allowed states to increase spending on hospitals to record levels. Ask Peter Beattie, he never had a bad word to say about the GST. Indeed, the GST comprises around half of all state budgets and in Tasmania, its nearly two-thirds GST funded.
So before you get all narky about percentages, just realise that the GST has made it all possible.
rcandelori,
I am no die-hard ALP supporter, but I am sick of the disingenuity around here. Please clarify for me whether or not you are in the Young Libs, as I do remember you from the insidepolitics blogs where you admitted this very fact. If this is the case, then I am merely speaking the truth. If not, I apologise unreservedly. I ask with no ulterior motive.
No. 174
I’d make the same assessment of you. If the level of debate has degraded to accusing people of being stooges, then clearly you must be an ALP staffer.
“Howard’s 1996 strategy is immaterial. We are in 2007. Times have changed.” Oh, so the 17% interst rates are still relevant (18 years ago) but when Howard deliverd his tax policy isn’t some 11 years ago. Good argument.
Adam,
Do you really want to spend your whole day moderating and deleting comments? Let’s face it, the next 38 days are going to be pure hell and unless you are will to devote masses of time to moderating your site it will just turn out the same. Poor William probably has RSI trying to keep up with the comments.
The states are increasing their spending share, the federal government’s share is decreasing. This was admitted by Tony Abbott 3 weeks ago. Or maybe you are accusing Abbott of lying?
I didn’t see anyone debating the GST. Looks like you are constructing a straw man argument.
No. 178
I’m not going to answer your suppositions. At the end of the day, I’m coming on here to debate the issues and all I get in return is the same old ALP apologism, as if alternative opinion is disgraceful, as if supporting the Howard government is a criminal act.
The fact is, you can all talk about 1996, you all talk about some illusive future plan, but until I actually see some substance from Rudd, the Coalition clearly has more runs on the board.
rcandelori:
Wow you are the Devil, John Howard clone I mean.
Now I know why I am not voting for John Howard, if you are an example of what he stands for.
No 182
Abbott was telling the truth, and the reason why the states have been able to increase their spending share is because of the GST, which comprises half of all state budgets.
So no, there’s no straw man argument. The GST is inseparable from this issue, given its importance to state budgets.
Good, so you agree that the states share of hospital spending is increasing, while the federal government’s share is decreasing. Even though we have a $17 billion surplus.
This demonstrates how strange the government’s priorities are, and is another excellent reason to change the federal government.
No 184
I’m still waiting for some mature argument from you AM.
I mean, labelling people as the devil? What, are we in kindergarten here?
177 candelori – The tax issues are more complicated thasn the simplistic Tory line you are spruiking here. GST is touted as a ‘States’ tax by Costello but the government include it in thier budget figures as ‘Commonwelath revenue’ which makes them look better at economics than they are. Also, GST is not the biggie, income tax is, by a huge margin. So Commonwealth expenditure from income tax is still necessary to fund the services that States have to deliver, GST is nowhere enough.
rcandelori
I dont debate with fools.
Quote:
” Even a foolish man seems wise till he opens his mouth”
No. 186
Don’t selectively quote what I said.
The GST is the reason why the states have increased their share of spending and the GST is a federally-collected tax introduced by Howard.
Ignorance of this fact is tantamount to meaningless ALP platitudes.
Candles (nice Crispy), a couple from your past? Not a stooge?
http://www2b.abc.net.au/news/forum/forum31/posts/topic10689.shtm
From: Robert Candelori 20/10/2001 14:59:00
Subject: Private Education post id: 10689
If Beazley gets into government private schools will suffer immensely and the extra money being injected into public schools won’t change the fact that most public students are trouble makers and refurbishments will only be vandalised.
http://www2b.abc.net.au/news/forum/forum31/posts/topic10443.shtm
From: Robert Candelori 19/10/2001 21:00:03
Subject: Job Dossier post id: 10443
Who would you prefer?
Name: John Howard
Born: 1939
Experience: 5 1/2 yrs Prime Minister
Achievements: repaid $58 bn of debt, introduced the GST – a fairer tax
OR
Name: Kim Beazley
Born: 1948
Experience: None
Achievements: None
Surely these “issues” polls are just a bit of fluff from the polling companies to keep in the news betwixt the polls that everyone really waits for. ie: voting intention.
There is this line run that “Managing The Economy”, is such and important indicator, but how true is it?? They Rattus Crew have been ahead on this measure forever, and STILL they are way behind in the voting intention polls.
I’d expect there to be some movement back to the Coalition in the next Newspoll, if only because the result generally seems to oscillate back and forth between limits over time anyway. Maybe that movement will be accentuated by the announced tax cuts?? Maybe its due to deliver a dreaded “outlier”!!! That would set the cat amongst the pigeons wouldn’t it!! During the campaign you can bet that people wont wait to see trends develop, even over a couple of weeks.
Still, even if it comes in at 57/43 in the ALP’s favor you can expect that the workers friends at the GG will find some way to spin this into “Team Howard Costello Rampages Into Real Contention for Election 07!!!!”
No 188
Of course, I’m not saying that the GST is bigger than income tax. But, when the GST comprises 50 percent of all state budgets, you can’t ignore its importance which is what most people are trying to do.
But I suppose times have changed…
These ‘issue’ polls are also inevitably misleading or at least partial, in that they ‘frame’ the issues in one way and not another. (They don’t let the elector frame the issues).
Clear example is how ‘national security’ gets prominence. I’m not cavilling with the term, though it’s a bit loaded. Eg ‘foreign affairs’ would prompt more support for Rudd.
Yet ‘national security’ gets a run but not the ‘Iraq War’. Yes most Australians turn away in disinterest or horror at the news from Iraq. But modest but not insignificant numbers of liberals were turned off by the deceit and fawning to Bush. Anecdotally, my family on the Sunshine Coast report a surprising depth of anger amongst old and not always pro-American conservatives over the Iraq debacle. (People who’ve known war seem to take it more seriously than others).
No. 191
So now we’re into character assassination. Those posts were made in 2001, I was young and I was immature.
Panacho, deal with the issues.
Back to the Newspoll…
Any ideas (beside conspiracy theories) on why the issue of Leadership does not have any details, apart from the fact that people consider it the 7th most important issue?
Could it be that it was a pro-ALP one, thereby putting a dent in the whole Coalition arguement about the RIGHT leadership? Does anyone have access to (or a link to) the previous issues poll to see how it rated before?
rcandelori:
Now you have been exposed, it must be time to for you go and harass another blog.
#183
“as if alternative opinion is disgraceful, as if supporting the Howard government is a criminal act”
I think this is taking it too far. I for one acknowledge that in a healthy democracy there will be a plethora of views on an issue. Forums like this exist for these to be discussed and debated in a thoughtful and considerate manner. If people are making considered criticism of Howard’s policies, then the way for a Government supporter to answer them is in an equally considered way. This is the crux of good democracy.
If you think there is a pro-ALP bent in these blogs, then I suggest you look at Andrew Bolt’s blog, where the situation is reversed. The nastiness against Rudd in that blog has doubled since the election was called. In those blogs, Rudd is the devil incarnate who will absolutely destroy this country. So you see, blogs are polarised in this manner.
No need to take it personally. By the way, I also think it is legitimate to question a blogger’s involvement in a party: this way, their arguments can be evaluated as to whether they are simply “towing the party line” or otherwise. Whether that person chooses to answer the charge that they are a party rep or not is up to them, and this is perfectly fine: You chose not to answer, and there is no problem with that, but why shout down the question itself as an insult?
191 – candelori maybe hasn’t heard of Google? good one, gotcha
Re 196
Nothing has changed then, really the way you are acting, you are doing Labour a favour by turning people against the Libs.
Good work.
63 isn’t young
rcandelori = troll.
Ignore. It’s that simple. If you deny a troll oxygen, they go away.
From reading the tabloids, it looks like Ben Cousins has broken his election promises and will be punished at the polls.
In other news, a lemur that looks like Rodney Dangerfield!
I didn’t know that Labor don’t have all the economic figures accessible as compared to the government. So I take my previous comment back
Now, Labor is rightly / fairly deserved the time spending on studying the figures (just made available to them from the government) before releasing their tax policy.
Guys i really think the attacks back and forth are getting a bit over the top. Bullying a poster of any persuasion off the blog makes it less interesting for us all. Yup, a bit of good natured banter is fun, but its getting a bit rude at times.
Well, that’s candelori skewered. Can be get back to discussing polls?
“most public students are trouble makers”
Robert Candelori
Wow. That is way past mere immaturity. That is serious ideological idiocy and contempt.
And you wonder why hard-right conservatives are on the nose?
No. 199
I do take it personally because every time a legitimate argument is raised, you are asked whether you are a member of the Liberal party. Why should anyone be subject to such harrassment?
It is a smoke and mirrors attempt to avoid addressing the argument. It could be said that all members here are ALP staffers, but that’s an immature and totally unsubstantiated view, yet anyone who supports the government is accused of being a stooge. It highlights a distinct policy of double standards and hypocrisy.
William, I’d take no offense if you removed my google work (or didn’t) – I accept it could have heightened the silliness.
The tax bribe and work.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/spin-doctor-do-tax-cuts-encourage.html
# 179 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:24 am
Call me whatever you like… at least I can back up my assertions, and am not scared of answering questions like…
At what point did howard release his tax policy in the 1996 election?
Well? When?
No 208
My comments in 2001 are unnceptable and wrong and I’ve never made such assessments since.
In the end, it seems people are more concerned about destroying my character as opposed to dealing with the current election. Isn’t it hypocritical to accuse the Howard government of smears, when the ALP apologists are resorting to blatant smears themselves?
William,
Time to nalpham some of these comments? It’s getting a bit personal from both sides.
rcandelori,
I don’t mind one iota what your political affiliations are. You say you want to debate issues, then let’s debate on substance. Many have asked why Keating’s 17% interest rates in the past are significant, but Howard’s 1996 campaign is not. According to you, times have changed, meaning Rudd should release a tax policy. Why the different standards being applied to the ALP and not the Coalition?
A valid question. I await your considered reply.
Janet Albrechtsen reminds me of a talking lizard.
Rudd should turn up to the debate with the Channel 9 Camera crew.
190 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:33 am
190 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:33 am
But that doesn’t make sense. If it is a federally collected tax, and the federal government is providing less support to hospitals as a percentage than ever before, doesn’t that logically mean that if there’s a hospital problem, the government should put its share (from the tax it collects) back to where it was before?
And tell me… what is the state of bulk-billing these days? Has that increased or decreased? And while you’re at it… doesn’t a decrease in bulk billing lead to more strain on hospitals?
Well? You’re big on rhetoric there son… time to pony up with answers to the difficult questions.
# 213 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:48 am
So now quoting you is smearing you?
The people who were questioned for this “Newspoll – issues” poll were also the ones who said they would vote ALP (48% PV) and be prepared to give Labor a resounding victory. As Mumble says the only vote that matters is the party vote. Oops, there goes Shanahan and Kelly’s arguments.
No 215
My comments were in the context of Rudd spruiking an illusive plan for the future, yet so far, we’ve heard much about this plan, but not what it actually contains. So, my point is, Howard didn’t have this grandiose future plan, as far as I can recall (I was a mere child back in 1996) so he shouldn’t be held to the same standard.
Isn’t it interesting how quickly Costello forgets about the GST.
I agree that under his plan you won’t pay INCOME TAX for the first $16,000. However, that doesn’t mean things you buy are tax free.
221 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:54 am
So a 4.5 billion dollar broadband rollout isn’t a plan for the future?
No. 218
Pi, of course it makes sense.
The federal government does not include the GST in the budget papers because it is totally rediverted back to the states.
The percentage comparison made in the media, as far as I’m aware, ignores the GST from the feds.
Gary, you’re right. It doesn’t make sense to discount one part of the poll as ‘they haven’t decided for sure’ but accept the other part of the poll. It really stinks of them assuming that everyone must think the same as them (eg. ‘Well of course the economy is most important… so that means if they answer the Coalition is better at handling the economy they will eventually vote for them!’)
Also, I thought Shanahan had already gone on the record as saying the polls are wrong (eg. mobile-only households not being taken into account) and that the really crucial part of the poll is the preferred PM question.
They just have no credibility if they twist polls to say what they want them to say. Best just to show the poll and state what is says without the spin. eg. The two party preferred vote shows X/X. When questioned on who they believed would handle the economy the best X% respondents answered the Coalition.
Would it hurt them so much to do this?
Hey, fair go, they need to write about SOMETHING! What do you want them to do, limit themselves to writing about things backed up by evidence?
No. 223
No. It is a rehash of an old Telstra plan.
We are all here for intelligent discussion, and to catch up on the latest political news.
Please do not respond to posts that are intentionally argumentative. Please do not stoke the fire when threads degenerate into childish arguments.
In other words: please STFU unless you have something intelligent to say.
I’ve found the Newspoll site and have looked at the June 07 and Feb 07 figures. No detail on Leadership – in fact, Newspoll appear to do the same thing every quarter: they put Leadership in the 9 most important issues, but when they do their “summary”, they only list 8 and always drop off Leadership, regardless of where it appears in the top 9. Interestingly fishy, I think.
Also, you don’t seem to be able to access October 06 figures; it merely takes you to the October 07 figures, not just on this poll but also the main “who would you vote for…” one.
#221
It’s all about the politics: If Rudd came out with several policy announcements this early in the campaign, it leaves pleanty of time for the Coalition to manufacture some “hole” in them, even if such a hole may not exist. As perception is everything, this could be very damaging, even if the funding hole is subsequently found to be non-existent. Also, it gives the Government less opportunity to “trump” Labor on various proposals.
Mind you, even when Labor does release a policy with “meat”, it is immediately shouted down by the Government and their supporters as “lacking substance”. Of course, this is expected from a Government trailing in the polls as it is. I reckon it is also driven by input from crosby-textor.
What Rudd is doing is smart politics, and is obviously causing the Coalition angst. This will increase if next week’s newspoll is sans bounce for the Coalition.
Bread and butter. If Rudd says he’ll leave taxes unchanged, I think that will be enough. It isn’t for him a defensive election, which means he doesn’t have to try and match anything – “32bn$ tax cuts? Motherf*cker no! Im going to cut them by $44bn!”. I’ve read two posts now talking about how much it costs to go to the doctor: $110! Far out, that’s steep. And because people in La Trobe get sick and $110 is a fair bit of cash for a trip tot eh GP, and because people in Hasluck get sick, and because people in Solomon, Kalgoorlie and Eden-Monaro get sick, then just ride roughshot over ideological split and go for the bread and butter.
Cap doctors’ vists at $40 or something like it. Stuff like that. I mean, it seems pretty obvious to me that Rudd isn’t going to get away with that Bob Hawke-Paul Keating everyman thing – “you are not folksy. You are not plain spoken. Do not, do not, do not act like it” – he might as well play up the social democratic nature of a Labo(u)r party. Force a situation where Howard has to slap down his plans. I think there’s still an outside chance that, if by changing the narrative to Howard battles Rudd’s ideas that The Narrowing may not happen.
Has anyone seen any written report of Howard’s lamentable gaffe yesterday about average weekly earnings and current official interest rates? I can’t seem to find anything about it. No doubt if it was Rudd who’d made such glaring errors, it would be splashed everywhere.
Oddly enough, it was the main story at the Daily Telegraph today here in Sydney too. The front page picture covered about 75% of the page.
LTEP at 225
Well yes it would hurt them. If they just stated the facts their headline each Tuesday would be ‘Labor headed for massive win’. Now which Australian reads want to read A) About Labor winning and B) The same thing each Tues for almost a year in a row?
Their analyses are ridiculous, but they appeal to the target audience and are thus commercially sound.
We should be content that we know better and that the election isn’t decided by people who read the Australian (or newspapers for that matter).
# 224 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:58 am
What does that have to do with anything?
The percentage comparison made in the media, as far as I’m aware, ignores the GST from the feds.
# 224 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:58 am
What does that have to do with anything?
The percentage comparison made in the media, as far as I’m aware, ignores the GST from the feds.
Does it? Where did you get that idea?
So… you you’re using incomplete understanding of the process of taxation and distribution to the states, to not even justify something that you know the federal government is responsible for, and can fix, and has reduced funding for, and continues to blame the states for.
While at the same time has loading more people into the system they’re underfunding, by slashing funding for aged care (another federal responsibility) and doctors care (another federal responsibility).
Have I got that right?
213
rcandelori
Fair enough. Though you do understand you can’t then criticise others for youthful political indiscretions (alleged or actual).
I think he will announce an earned income tax credit to help people with children on low and middle incomes. He should also try to integrate it with child care fees.
I don’t think his priority will be shifting the highest tax rate from 45, to 35 cents. That rate only applies to people earning over $150,000, how many of those people vote Labor?
LTEP,
I think it’s safe to say that we can expect zero logic from Mr Shanahan – his credibility checked out some time ago now. Let us not forget that this is the commentator who, in the days following the 2004 election stated that John Howard had won a two term majority in the HoR and that he would not use his senate majority to bring in unpopular legislation.
See my earlier post (#84) for predictions on the next angle of approach taken by the sad old Government Gazette – I hope Shanahan takes a teaching job after this – I’m gonna enrol in his class as it will be the only forum in which he will be obliged to defend his odious brand of hackery.
# 227 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:01 pm
It is no such thing. Stop inventing stuff.
You go find me a link to where Telstra proposed an open-access architecture public/private broadband network.
Fabricating lies because you can’t defend the indefensible is not a good look.
No 236
It is relevant because the state budgets include the GST whereas the federal budget excludes it.
The GST is a federal tax that cannot be ignored. You can keep up the circumlocution, or you can deal with the facts.
Well, the betting markets are buying Newspoll’s BS. Labor nearing or at $1.50 now and the Libs $1.65. Hard to believe really.
ShowsOn:
earned income tax credit…sounds vaguely…familiar…
Holy hell, Rudd’s going to win the 2007 Australian Fenderal Election by being Helen Clark. Brilliant. If that’s true, if he copies her, then the Liberals might never govern again.
(dramatic music)
…for a long time.
Gary — you mean $2.65 for Libs.
I won’t believe it until some polls come out. I think everyone assumed the government would try anything to stay in power, that was factored into their judgement of the last 70 odd polls. I don’t see why they would start changing now just because the campaign is on.
Or is it $10.65?
No 241
Given that the ALP is practically in bed with Sol and the amigos, I don’t see how the idea of “open-access broadband” is reconcilable with monopolistic tendencies to quash competitors.
If you actually look at the policy document on the ALP website, it is a bunch of rhetoric, and the $4.7 billion figure is plucked from thin air.
http://www.alp.org.au/download/now/070321_dp_new_directions_for_communications___a_broadband_future_for_australia___building_a_nationial_broadband_network.pdf
showson @ 238 – actually, quite a few people that i know earn 150k or more, and they all vote labor (or greens).
Another thing the ALP will do is remove GST on “sanitary products” and books.
Lose the election – Couldn’t agree with you more. The GG is a disgrace. It would be nice if they could just report the news and give up trying to persuade everyone to vote coalition.
hi all
the nationals candidate in leichhardt has described his electorate as “unsuitable for a woman”.Unfortunately the Lib candidate is a woman(ex-prawn trawler worker according to Mal brough).Story was just on abc 12 o’clock news
i think joe public has two messages re Libs:
a vote for howard is a vote for the exclusive brethren (EB)
The coalition is not really woman friendly eg the heiferman etc now reinforced by the dill in leichhardt
ps dont feed the trolls
I beleive the United States was the first government to introduce it in 1990, but it was greatly expanded when Clinton became president.
Interestingly, it now has very broad bipartisan support in the U.S., so it is curious that it hasn’t been introduced here. The government seems to prefer Family Tax Benefits A & B, and fudging around with rates, rather than just not taking the tax in the first place.
Sorry I should have said Centrebet – Coaltion $2.65. My bad.
No. 250
The GST should be on ALL goods and services. The reason why the system is so complex is because the Democrats rammed through ammendments supposedly aimed at helping low-income earners.
I hope the Labor candidate preferences the Liberal above the National for this outburst. Even if that means 2nd last, and last respectively.
the number of people earning >150K who vote ALP who voteswitch will probably be made up for by the number of people who earn
Come to think of it, where the hell is Mark Vaile? The Nat candidate should be disendorsed.
The exclusive brethren are just as entitled to express their views to politicians as you or I.
Once you limit free speech, there is no free speech.
where did the rest of my post go?
showson:
Yeah, but I think what divides the parties in America isn’t the same as here. For one, I don’t think the ALP feels obliged to prove its conservative credentials, as is automatic in the states. I think in terms of policy, that Rudd and Clark will look pretty much the same. But sine Clark got there first, and since she’s pretty successful, there are probably a few ALP strategists looking across the sea to see if there’s anything they can pick up.
the EB weirdos are certainly entitled to express their views, but they are not entitled to break federal electoral laws, mr candelori.
# 242 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
I’m circumlocuting?
In the first paragraph you say ‘the federal budgets exclude the GST’ (which they don’t, according to the treasury) and in the next paragraph you say “The GST is a federal tax that cannot be ignored.”
Well? You’re the one that should be gettin your facts straight kid.
So… (again) you’re using incomplete understanding of the process of taxation and distribution to the states, to not even justify something that you know the federal government is responsible for, and can fix, and has reduced funding for, and continues to blame the states for.
While at the same time has loading more people into the system they’re underfunding, by slashing funding for aged care (another federal responsibility) and doctors care (another federal responsibility).
Have I got that right?
No 261
Their guilt or innocence hasn’t been proven in a court of law, so it is inappropriate to pass judgment on that matter.
Identifying issues and concerns are different are revealing different animals.
Saying who would better at doing something doesn’t say you think the other can’t do it. The Govt gets the tick for the economy and security on incumbency grounds. They get a comparative cross on everything else. People are saying, you are in power, we have seen how you do it and, this is how we judge you – Labor would do better than you on this and this. 6 out of 8 items.
Economic ‘concerns’ are only held by 23% in Morgan’s poll. That is low a figure and gives lie to Liberal claims about Labor.
Possums analysis is spot on. Primaries have been bleeding from the LNP every since the last election on a whole variety of issues of which WorkChoices is the bigger issue. The Govt has had something to piss off each area of the electorate over the years and this loss of primary is well spread across the issues. While WorkChoices might not be an issue for all it was an issue that helped define the nature of this govt in the voters mind -and that wasn’t good.
This current poll tells us that Labor is preferred on most things and the Morgan poll fills in the gap and tells us that few have real concerns with Labor on the economy.
The Exclusive Bretheren are also required to obey electoral laws. That means, for instance, not booking ads from an address in one state, paying from one in another, and making their contact a third. All in 4 Corners. There will be more to this, perhaps, or perhaps not in this campaign, but I predict they will be keeping an even lower profile this time around. Except for the backyards of Bennelong work, of course.
# 259 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Hang on… isn’t it our current liberal government that is being criticized for 500 separate pieces of legislation that is limiting freedom of speech, from the managers of our press?
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2007/s1919684.htm
Once you limit free speech, there is no free speech.
Indeed.
No. 262
According to this page, the GST is excluded from Revenue assessments:
http://www.budget.gov.au/2007-08/overview/html/overview_37.htm
What wasn’t put to air by the ABC about the EB.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/brethren-children-abused/2007/10/16/1192300771160.html
# 263 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
And so how to you reconcile that belief with the treatment of Haneef?
I guess it’s also inappropriate to pass judgement on Osuma Bin Laden. He hasn’t been proven guilty in a court of law.
No. 265
Again, until a court of law establishes their guilt or innocence, it is inappropriate to pass judgment on the brethren.
No 269
Kevin Andrews should be sacked for incompetency.
With the way the political dynamics run in this country you suspect that howard, crosby texter and the the murdoch press actually sit down together and work out the coalition tactics. It defies common sense and strategic competency for the Labor Party to release its Tax policy just because the coalition has done so. Who would, under normal circumstances even think that this would happen, particularly given the new financial figures released by treasury. Yet to go with the MSM there is now some urgent requirement for Labor to do so. I even noticed that clown michael brissendon on the ABC last night saying as much. ITs a 6 week campaign….Labor can take its time, assess the poll response, which I think will be minimal and then make its decision between plan a, b, or c accordingly.
The problem for polical junkies like me is that immersing yourself in the minutia of polical/media comment gives you a warped view of how things really are. As I think Possum has said, peoples views have gestated over a long period of time. They don’t like Howard. There’s not a trick in the book he hasn’t played before. They aren’t reading Dennis Shanaghan or the editorial of the GG. They’re detached from the incestuous rantings and tactical manouverings of the poltical class. For that reason they don’t give a damm that Rudd hasn’t released his tax policy the day after Howard. Its also why despite Howard’s frantic salesmanship over the last year nothing has worked. Its not going to suddenly change.
“Again, until a court of law establishes their guilt or innocence, it is inappropriate to pass judgment on the brethren.”
OK, let me go out on a limb. From my point of view with regards to disclosure and authorisation, they have clearly broken the law. And, again just my judgement, they will be found guilty and face a fine.
OK, that’s your opinion. But no impartial court has found that to be so.
# 267 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
What does that have to do with the federal responsibility for health? They now pay less as a percentage, than before. It is immaterial where the state governments money has come from.
What is being argued is the percentage that the state is paying, and the percentage that the federal government is paying.
So I’ll ask the question again… is federal health funding for health as a proportion of total funding, going up or down?
Answer the question.
What I want to know is how did the EB get to have a 1-1 meetings with the PM and other senior cabinet ministers just a couple of months before the election? These people is almost impossible to see. They’re notoriously remote bcause, as with AWB, if you haven’t been told, you’re not responsible. What was discussed at these meetings, theology? What promises made? Federal Government ministers are remote to all but their inner circles. It’s the question of priveleged access that’s the worry not the fact that the EB has something to say.
talking about Exclusive Brentren, I urge you all, especially the Greens,
to watch ABC’s 4Corners documentary, just released on Monday this week.
All I have to say is it’s breath-taking.
The Brethren Express
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2007/s2057172.htm
for those who want to download the video clips (big):
The Brethren Express – Quentin McDermott’s report “The Brethren Express”, originally broadcast on 15 October, 2007
Length: 44′45″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/brethren_hi.wmv
Phil McNaughton – senior Leader of the Exclusive Brethren, Australia.
Length: 13′10″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/naughton_hi.wmv
Neville Simmons – member of the Exclusive Brethren, New Zealand.
Length: 12′01″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/simmons_hi.wmv
Don Monday – ex-member of the Exclusive Brethren, United States.
Length: 12′49″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/monday_hi.wmv
Alastair Nicholson – former Chief Justice of the Family Court.
Length: 11′24″
mms://media4.abc.net.au/4corners/brethren/nicholson_hi.wmv
Joy Nason – Former Exclusive Brethren member
mms://media3.abc.net.au/winlibrary/200609/r108235_335531.wmv
Selwyn Wallace – Former Exclusive Brethren member
mms://media3.abc.net.au/winlibrary/200609/r108240_335547.wmv
# 272 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
And seeing as he isn’t being sacked… doesn’t it follow that you should sack the guy that insists upon him staying there?
According to the graph I’m looking at, a year ago it was competitive. And now, it’s really not, people have just walked away from the government. It’s like Rudd was the starter’s pistol for it. Like, people just saw a reasonable and realistic chance to ditch the government without putting stuff at risk, without being tied to the Keating years (cf. Beazley, Crean, Latham) and they just took it. Which leads me to wonder: if Kevi Rudd had been leading the Labor Party in 2004, who would be the Prime Minister today?
Howard and Costello are political hardmen they know that this election is lost.The into the future tax scam is an attempt to sucker Labor into a similar policy so that health and education will continue struggle for nesessary funding.
Pi, as I’ve mentioned earlier, Health spending has more than doubled in the past 12 years at a federal level.
Now you can continue playing dumb, but I’ve got better things to do than argue with inpenetrable stupidity.
273 Sean – I totally agree. I’m as much a polling tragic as anyone and we do become immersed (submerged?) in the detail. As I said earlier, ALL the polls have had Labor with a steady lead for many months. Probably 80% of people have made up their minds, most want Howard gone. Even Howard said you can’t fatten the pig on market day, he has just too much negative baggage to get him over the line. Nothing much will change, the election will be closer than we think, probably 52/48 but that should do.
No. 279
No. Kevin Andrews should be sacked, but the governments job overall has been commendable and there’s no real reason to vote them out.
Ok rcandelori, we get it. You love the government, they can do no wrong and Labor are terrible and should just stay in Opposition forever.
Anything to contribute as far as psephology goes?
Frank
wow some of that stuff re EB is dynamite
no wonder most of the MSM dont want to touch it
maybe send a copy to the vatican so das pappa knows what to expect(and how to deal with) Lib politicians
maybe he’ll issue a papal bull
ps Mal Brough has gone up in my estimations a bit (future leader of the “breakthrough generation”)
On Possum’s ‘day one 3 polls’ article I notice in Higgins that ALP’s 2pp is 50.9. Is Costello realistically in danger?
284 – ‘no real reason to vote them out’? Huh? children overboard, Iraq, AWB, that’s enough for starters.
The exclusive Brethren campaigned hard for Howard in 2004 and their favourite tactic was to disrupt public meetings being held by Andrew Wilkie.
“The man asking the question about Andrew Wilkie’s religion and marital status is Stephen Hales, brother of the world leader of the Exclusive Brethren, Bruce Hales.’
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/backgroundbriefing/stories/2006/1624361.htm
It is a favoured tactic of theirs to disrupt public meetings, we saw similar when Gary Nairns chief of staff accused labors Mike Kelly of using the Nazi excuse at a public meeting in Eden- Monaro.
Young lib bloggers also follow the same tactic, the sole aim is to disrupt the discussion.
Does anyone know if the consumption of petrol is inelastic?
It seems to me that whether petrol is $1 or 1.50 a L consumers still buy about the same amount. It is very rare for people to actually stop using their car(s) just because the price of fuel has gone up.
I’m wondering if Rudd is considering cutting the petrol tax by a couple of cents a L. I guess the government will argue this is bad for the environment, but if consumption doesn’t vary with price, then that would be a hard argument to make.
Getting back to the poll questions, I suppose their importance needs to be taken in the following context:
1. The same people who rate the individual parties on these issues are the ones who also provided the primary and 2pp vote in the same poll.
2. The issues listed may be instructive or help predict future outcomes were there to be some major issue/ crisis which arose during the campaign in an area where one party has a commanding lead over the other.
On the EB – my concern with them (pre-dating the 4 corners piece) was that the PM saw fit to meet with one of their members, at a time when that member was still being investigated for his dealings with the PM’s own party at the last election. Personally, I thought that was pretty inappropriate.
The best way to deal with it is to ignore them until they say something intelligent. Do not reward troll-like behaviour.
290 – Shows On – Labor nor Libs should reduce excise on fuel. We should be encouraging people to use their cars less and to buy smaller cars. Oil will run out so we may as well start practising for that event. The GST on the excise should be scrapped though – double taxing.
Which pollster was closed to the2004 result? I thought it was Morgan. Anyone got any details?
Damien, Galaxy was closest in 2004. Morgan was the furthest from the result, although their primary figures weren’t too bad (they distributed preferences incorrectly).
link to leichhardt story
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061813.htm
“She used to actually work on a prawn trawler,” he said.
“She’d take most blokes and sit them on their backsides.
“I’d be a bit wary if I was the Nationals candidate.”
Mr Crossland has been unavailable for comment.
love it!
well, petrol would be inelastic because there’s not really anything that we can pop in the tank in its place.
would cutting the petrol tax by a couple of cents a litre really make any difference? i mean, it goes up, it goes down by a few cents…i think people are pretty used to those sorts of changes. it’s only when it really shoots up high (into the 130s-140s/L) that people take any notice.
Polls have shown for some years that Australians are very concerned about man made global warming this is not surprising as we live on the driest continent.What is surprising is that our PM is the last person on the continent to adress this concern.How can he claim that he is the right leader? As the right leader he should have out in front leading on this crucial problem.He is not a leader he is an old man in a track suit try to sound relevent.
Good old weak as piss Mark Vaille, doesn’t have the guts to disendorse his moron candidate.
ShowsOn: Mark Vaile rebukes Ian Crossland:
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061813.htm
“old man in a tracksuit”, L.duce – i love it!
Damien J,
ACN were closest to the ALP primary.
Galaxy was closest to the Lib primary.
Morgan was closer to the primary vote of both the ALP and the Libs than Newspoll.
Shows On
The excise on fuel actually acts as a buffer against the wild fluctuations we see in the price of oil.
Because the taxes form such a large part of the price when there is those wild movements in the oil price then the effect is not as drastic as for those countries which do not have the tax.
Eg. Petrol $1 a litre, tax 56c, base price increase 10c effect equals 10% change.
Petrol $0.44 a litre, no tax, base price increase 10c, effect equals 22.7%.
The large swings from the original price where there is no tax can play havoc with pricing for transport costs, whether it is for goods or people.
It can also have more drastic effects on inflation.
I’m been wondering about the reason for Glen’s absence. Is he working for the Exclusive Brethren in Bennelong? LOL
Word of advice: ignore the Liberal trolls! They’re not here to engage in constructive debate.
William will have a lot of cleaning up to do in this thread bwahahhahha.
# 282 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
What is inpenetrable stupidity is that you won’t admit that the share of funding coming from the federal government is less. And you can continue playing dumb, or you can answer the question.
Has the share of government spending for health from the federal government, gone down or up?
It’s a real simple question. Why are you scared to answer it?
” But Nationals candidate Ian Crossland has reportedly said it is a vast electorate, difficult to cover and hard for a woman to win.
Mr Vaile says the comments are inappropriate and unnecessary ”
.
.
Poor old Nationals. Things just haven’t been the same for them since women and black fellas got the vote. Oh, for the good old days when the only people who ran for Parliament were those who drank whiskey and stood up to pee.
For those nervous nellies here who are worried about the pro Lib crap in the MSM particularly the GG, pop over to Possum and take a look at the graphs showing the decline in the Lib vote since 2005. Why should the line change direction in 6 short weeks? Howard would be Lazarus with quadruple bypass, pacemaker and defibrillator (plus Viagra) to swing the voters.
# 284 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Lack of adequate health funding. Lack of adequate broadband infrastructure. Wars that no-one wants. Incompetent ministers. Bribery to odious regimes. Demonization of minorities. Long-term reductions in productivity. Erosion of workers rights. Erosion of freedom of the press. Complete lack of action on environmental issues.
Looks like lots of reasons to me.
In response to ShowsON question on petrol and elasticity:
Petrol is considered generally to be pretty much inelastic. There was a small reduction in consumption in response to the spike in petrol last year, but since then it has picked up again despite prices also rising.
This poll requires closer examination. While it asks how important issues are to voting intention on a range of specific policy areas, it is the mix of these issues in each voter’s mind that will decide the election. I.e. when a certain amount of negatives or positives build up a voter will change her/his vote. It is interesting to note how relatively low the almighty ECONOMY rates in the scheme of things.
Prediction?
Don’s party II (minus charisma)
Hi Alex,
Just because it hasn’t happened before doesn’t mean it can’t happen now. One side will be praying it does, the other will be praying it doesn’t.
This looks to be a historic election either way. Either it will be the demise of a government in one of the largest swings in history, or it will be the election people will hold up to say it’s never too late to turn things around.
Personally, I’m hoping the polls stay around where they are, there’s no hiccups and Howard’s gone in 5.5 weeks time. As each poll comes we’ll get a clearer picture of how things will end up.
#282 rcandelori – so what if health spending at the Federal level has doubled? Health *costs* have soared in the same period. You’re obfuscating, avoiding the real issue: the Feds used to contribute 50% of the pie, now they contribute closer to 40%. The fact that the pie has gotten bigger is irrelevant, because it still gets eaten!
#290 showson – off the top of my head, petrol demand would be very (but not perfectly) inelastic. As Alex said, though, that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s good policy to be reducing the excise.
Reading the GG is like going through the looking glass. Its trippy, weird, and makes a good tale later, but really bears no actual relationship to electoral reailty.
I think the campaign going swimmingly for Rudd so far. Better ads, more fresh material, the coalition has stuck with the nuclear vote killer (baha!), and ALP leads on 6 of 8 issues in a generational shift election. Plus the coaltion has shot its load too early. Not much dough in the campaign barrel. And workschoices stinks as bad as it did 6 months back.
Howard is in seriously deep shit. His primary is way, way too low to win.
Dont believe otherwise until you see the coalition 2pp anywhere near the ALP primary.
If Newspoll performed poorly in the last election, why does it have so much apparent credence? Is it a frequency issue or is there something in the methodology? I’ve always thought the 2PP estimates were a bit speculative.
I thought the fluctuation in the price of the AUD$ did that? Apparently the price of oil is going to be about US$100 by the end of the year again.
Surely petrol taxes are just a revenue raising measure. I don’t think people would mind if they paid 50 cents a litre one day, and $1 a litre the next. I think they would prefer that to paying $1.20 – $1.50 a litre all the time.
I LIKE the fact the Liberals have had a couple of free kicks the last few days. It will remind voters the election isn’t a for gone conclusion, which will ultimately lock in more Labor votes (because that’s the long term trend) than shifting people back to the government.
I guess everyone sees events differently based on their own circumstance and thus issues don’t affect everyones voting intentions in the same way. I have given up reading the GG, and posters like rcandelori, because they don’t seem to even remotely understand the issues for people like me.
I should say up front the majority of people I associate with, work and social, are what you would call small ‘l’ liberals who have, like me, switched sides for this election. I should also acknowledge I and my friends are in the “higher†income bracket so don’t suffer the same economic hardships facing many today so am not personally affected by those issues. I also acknowledge that neither I nor any of those I associate with have been, nor ever will be, directly affected by workchoices. It therefore is not a major influence on why we have changed allegiances though it does factor into our thinking to some degree as we are aware of its potential ramifications.
For us there really is no single “big issue†just a multitude of small issues and events over a long period of time that has combined to leave a dirty taste and general desire to clean the air and start afresh. The union bogey, interest rates or L plate rubbish just won’t work this time around; it is going to take something truly significant for Howard to overcome the sense of dissatisfaction with his elitist divisiveness and manipulative opportunism that has turned many of us. We are very cynical indeed.
Rather than rely on the MSM I find a much better indication of how events are unfolding is simply to listen to those who I associate with as if there is indeed to be a narrowing then they will have to be amongst those who are to provide it.
So to that extent I strongly disagree with those who believe the tax cuts are good strategy and Rudd has to release his policy immediately.
For me Howard’s tax carrot only highlights he has absolutely no idea of what this country really needs to go forward, infrastructure, health etc and has no plan beyond buying his own self survival.
Howard is simply relying on the public mirroring his own narrow minded myopic view that economic management is predicated on “self interest†and that power can be bought. No doubt there are those that can be bought, his primary vote of 39% demonstrates that, but not all of those that switched did so for money or “self interestâ€, some simply want a better, united, fairer and more egalitarian society to live in than what Howard has provided.
Economics is far more than mere wealth creation, as the originator and father of economics itself, Adam Smith, wrote “Every man is rich or poor according to the degree in which he can afford to enjoy the necessaries, conveniences, and amusements of human life.†A strong economy is a poor economy if it doesn’t provide benefit and welfare for the society of its people.
Rudd does not need to present his tax policy now and would be foolish to do so IMO, the libs have bombed out so he should just stick to his plan of gradually building momentum as the campaign rolls on and ignore the shrilling of MSM and libs, the voters don’t appear too concerned at all.
In fact it is not even about Rudd to some of us, don’t even pay that much attention to him to be honest. As long as he doesn’t do anything totally ridiculous Rudd can count on those I know cheering him on, for this one time at least.
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/poll_bullshit_is_most_important
First time here; not impressed with the squabbling. The same 8 or nine squabblers make for a dull discussion – Mr Bowe is plainly patient or can’t be bothered to moderate the sniping?
The Labor Party knows this is a hard fight – and despite the encouragement poll averages give it’s supporters, on the inside it’s known the difference is much smaller – and a shortfall of 5 seats a possibility.
Alex, mentally I know that Howard does need a miracle to win this election, and I certainly don’t expect the tax cuts to have any real impact. However, I’m going to be nervous about new polls, right up until the Night of the Returns itself. My prediction is at least 54% 2PP to Labor, and 100+ seats.
310 LTEP – Yes, I agree. If Howard turns this around and wins by even two seats, it will be the most significant event in Australain political history ever.
Sorry if this has been noticed before but I just surfed in and saw the thread intro. Dennis Shanahan really is the Tony Snow of Australian politics. He puts the “con” back into “conservative”. If there is any way to find a pro-Liberal bias in a story, however unrepresentative of the whole, he will use it. His fawning for Howard reminds me of Waylon Smithers dreams of Monty Burns on the Simpsons.
In this case, the Australian’s survey considers 8 policy issues. In two of 8 (Economics and National Security) the Liberals are in front, compared with 6 of 8 for Labor. As for trend, in 2 of 8 (same two) the coalition has recently improved, whereas Labor has also improved in 2 of 8 (Health and Social Issues). Naturally, Denis focuses on those 2 of 8! In other words, he focuses on the 2 out of 8 indicators bucking the (pro-Labor) trend.
Speaking of economic genius, did anyone see the news that India is now backing out of the Australia – India – United States uranium deal, based on negative perceptions of our US Allies in India? That will cost Australia exports of several billion $ per annum. I know Howard always extolls the virtues of our US alliance, but does anyone ever add up the cost?
Keating’s 17% interest rates are relevant. Howard has made them so by referring to them in his denigrating way during this campaign. Equally Howard’s 22% interest rate, 11% unemployment and truly massive debt, during his time as Treasurer are relevant, probably more so since he, not Keating is seeking re-election at this time.
Re InCider @ 317
At last, someone willing to back me up on my 5 seat prediction!
No. 312
That’s absolutely wrong.
The original media report specifically deals with hospital funding. Yes, the federal share has declined BUT the state share included GST funding which the federal share does not.
The Government does not recognise the GST in the budget.
The main thing about Rudds lead is how solidly consistent the polls have been over a long period of time. An election doesn’t mean that all bets are off or that Howard is going to start sounding more like a viable proposition. Having the towering smirk permanently standing next to him is only going to make things worse. We’ve been in a phoney election for the last few months. Despite what Sol Lebovic says there’s nothing soft about Labor’s vote.
As the media have been saying, this election is Labor’s to lose. If they stay disciplined and put out some attractive policies, they will win. I would expect to see a raft of Labor policies being released on a regular basis as the campaign develops. This will keep Howard busy trying to shoot holes in Labor’s ideas while trying to defend his own (dismal) record, as well as defend his own seat.
“on the inside it’s known the difference is much smaller”
Do you have any evidence for this? Or are all the published polls wrong?
When a listed company is flush with cash but can’t find a way to invest it, they start buying up their own stock. It has a short term effect of keeping the shareholders happy because it helps support the stock price, but in the long term it’s not a strategy for growing the business.
And so, for Howard and Costello to claim some marvellous plan to return to us a few crumbs while lauding themselves as having a plan for the future is laughable! (Not to mention transparent vote buying).
My guess is that the public have become so inured to Howard’s tricks that they’ll see it for what is: desperate and cynical.
InCider — it’s not usually this bad. Guys can you please quit with your childish arguments. You know that neither side is going to change their opinions so please keep a lid on it. It’s going nowhere and is pretty annoying for most of us reading this blog.
# 323 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
The original media report specifically deals with hospital funding. Yes, the federal share has declined BUT the state share included GST funding which the federal share does not.
The Government does not recognise the GST in the budget.
I don’t know why you keep banging on about this. The ratio has gone down, regardless of where the money came from. The government had no more control over where the money of the states went before there was a GST or after.
The government funding for hospitals has gone down, as a proportion of total spending on hospitals. This is at the same time as a reduction in doctors funding (bulk billing) which puts even more strain on the hospital system, as people that don’t go to doctors, go to emergency wards instead.
So it’s a double-whammy. They’ve reduced funding in health, both directly and indirectly, and then blamed the states for their lack of funding.
That’s it, isn’t it?
Don’t forget the two wildcards, Tony Windsor and Bob Katter.
They will support Rudd and you never know your luck, there might be another in the offing.
ShowsOn 290
The demand for petrol is highly inelastic in the short term (around -0.3 in economic terms). In the long term (3 years +) it starts becoming more elastic, provided other transport options exist. Still less than one though – there is a whole urban infrastructure (housing locations, roasd, work locations) built around using cars. It takes decades to turn that alll around. The idea that you can manage transport demand without causing a major recession is a myth.
Travel demand stays remarkably constant (average 3.5 trips per person per day), based on demographics and land-use patterns. What may change is the mode of transport people choose, provided alternatives exist. Hence you can reduce petrol use if you can get people to use more public transport, walking and cycling. It is difficult though. London congestion charging, arguably the most successful travel demand management scheme in recent years, achieved a 22% reduction in car trips in central London.
Arguably, the “flexibility” of personal travel decisions has actually declined over the past decade. People working longer hours have less ability to avoid morning peak commutes via flexible stop/start times. Likewise the rise of families with both partners working means many remain using cars even if to save only a few minutes.
# 323 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
I don’t know why you keep banging on about this. The ratio has gone down, regardless of where the money came from. The government had no more control over where the money of the states went before there was a GST or after.
The government funding for hospitals has gone down, as a proportion of total spending on hospitals. This is at the same time as a reduction in doctors funding (bulk billing) which puts even more strain on the hospital system, as people that don’t go to doctors, go to emergency wards instead.
So it’s a double-whammy. They’ve reduced funding in health, both directly and indirectly, and then blamed the states for their lack of funding.
That’s it, isn’t it?
rcandelori
The GST isnt federal money. It simply substitutes the raft of state taxes that were abolished as part of the initial funding agreement with the federal government. The problem for the states is that they’ve lost a substantial amount of their financial independance because of this. The so called GST funding bonanza that Howard keeps rabbiting on about is an illusion. The financial review ran an article earlier this week on it.
I agree with Ashley at 326.
As a general rule of thumb, I try to relate any comment on policy to how it might influence voting and the polls in general. If you can’t do that then it’s probably a good idea to resist posting.
Of course, having said that I shouldn’t post this… but it’ll be my last word on the matter.
Can I ask, has anything of substance been offered by either party today? It seems that we’re all still talking about yesterday’s news…
Let it end – interesting take. I agree with your sentiment about a number of issues creating an overall perception which they each individually then feed into. Be it the war, IR, negative campaigning, vote buying, dog-whistling, ignorance or bullying about immigration and the environment, Hicks, AWB, children overboard, SIEV X, Reith and phonecards, privatisation…I could bore myself further. I don’t think any of these is the ‘winner’, but its all seeming a bit Gramscian. Historically, changes are made when enough of these issues group together in a wider mindset.
SL @ Graham Gooch (333):
I think they’re both playing it low key so far because this morning each leader attended the funeral for that felow who got killed in Afghanistan.
Pi and Sean (I won’t try to convince rcandelori)
Another point to watch on “health funding” versus “hospital funding” is to make sure that they don’t include the funds wasted on private health insurers. There is a policy failure if ever there is one. Do you remember all the promises about how it would divert patients out of the public system? It does to a limited extent but many of the most expensive types of treatment still only happen at public hospitals. In terms of cost per patient diverted, private health insurance has been a terrible investment.
Costello is holding a news conference (on Sky News)
I hope they do this for Rudd and Swan too.
Anti union BS.
GB,
Shouldnt you be comfortable and relaxed if its “in the bag” so to speak?
Won’t work.
Trade union bosses – Boooo
Totally relaxed ESJ. No probs here.
#323 rcandelori – GST has nothing to do with health funding and the proportional contributions of the two tiers of government.
On the note of GST, the Federal Government merely collects it and passes it onto the states (less their admin costs). To suggest that this is in some way supportive of health funding is ridiculous. The GST merely replaces a range of state taxes that were abolished.
Therefore, to say that the Federal Budget does not recognise GST is trite – it’s not a source of revenue for the Federal Government. To say that state funding of health includes money that comes from the GST is also trite. If you’d prefer, we can abolish the GST and the states will reintroduce all those inefficient little taxes and duties.
Was it just me or did Costello just hold a news conference solely for the purpose of announcing a scare campaign. Where is the policy?
Here it is the first J “M G Tm” G announcement of the campaign:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Labor-to-aid-familyfriendly-business/2007/10/17/1192300829649.html
Who is going to be responsible for determing if its family friendly, Sharran?
It seems like they really did just believe the polls and didnt do any real work in the last 3 years.
Seems to be a lot of posting about the politics of posting. My rough poll indicates that, currently, 1 in 7 posts are of this variety.
Of these, 56% and 44% are authored by ALP and Coalition supporters respectively.
(I actually find a bit of argy bargy entertaining …)
What is this drivel the GG is editorialising about. Do they really think Labor is MAD!!!! enough to have not developed a tax policy? Or that anyone who themselves is not MAD!!!! would believe such rot?
‘There is even a suggestion that some senior Opposition figures did not believe it necessary to have a tax policy at all for the campaign because the Government got so little bounce from the tax cuts announced in this year’s budget that it would not concentrate on tax reform for re-election’.
then remarkably..from ’suggestion’ to ‘fact’
‘Such thinking totally misunderstands the workings of the voter’s mind’.
Labor must be revelling in this light relief! Editorial cum jokes page!
Another fear campaign which will have little effect. Labor has its own and haven’t fired a shot yet. Why do you think the Libs are firing their guns now? because they are worried and a long way behing. Nothing new here. Heard it all before and the polls haven’t moved.
I can certainly do without Cap’n Smirk on TV. We’re only 3 days into the campaign; there’s 5.5 wks to go, so there’s lots of time for policy by Labor. As I said before, Workchoices has been a big vote driver among a significant minority of voters.
Don’t know why you are still arguing with ‘rcandelori’ for? He is never going to change his opinion. Satan himself could run for leader of the Libs and he’d still vote conservative. Can we move on please.
By the way it is a well known fact that 90% of all the demons in the electorate of Hell intend to vote Liberal this election. That’s one seat that is safe for Howard.
Alex ‘most significant electoral event ever’ if Howard scrapes back in? Quite possibly with under 50% – a sadly common enough event.
Try: 1910 (first real ALP fed govt, 14% increase in its primary vote to 50%), 1943 (utter chaos on conservative side, , Labor wartime govt entrenched, conservatives sent to regroup for 6 years), 1954 (Labor had 50% of primaries, didn’t win, then fell into abyss of split in 1955), 1961 (Menzies clung on due to donkey vote in Moreton, and Labor waited 12 years), 1975 (crisis, Whitlam obliterated).
More significantly, in these elections the parties presented big social and economic differences. Rudd Labor vs Howard Liberal doesn’t. The only thing that would make it truly significant is what it would avoid – ie recrimininations in the Liberal party. Realignments in Labor are ongoing regardless.
I’m not sure it would even rate as the most ‘unpredicted’ electoral event. Many pundits still rate it a chance, and the odds are still around 30%.
Rudd: 6000 new homes
9000 new nurses (just on abc radio)
more to come -visionary stuff this
Howard: fear,smear and a crocodile tear
choice is easy eh
Graeme, it won’t stop it being painted as the most unlikely victory ever, even though to a lot of us it’s predictable.
I think Labor will win. What gives me confidence in the polls is the fact that the PPM figures correspond very closely to the primary vote figures. Don’t be surprised to see Rudd finish strongly in the campaign.
Does anyone know when the next ACN, Morgan, Galaxy and Newspoll are due?
What “realignments” within Labor do you speak of Graeme?
Seriously, who hosts a press conference for the release of a TV ad???
Anyway, it seems that the Coalition are firing as many shots across the bow now as possible in the hope of some sticking – first the “L Platers” ad, then the tax cuts and now this ad. If they don’t get any movement for the next poll, they are well and truly screwed…
Has anyone seen any union ads on TV yet? They appeared to die out a couple of months ago, and I’m interested in when they are going to start up again. Maybe not for another week or so?
Looks like the worm will be there on Sunday:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22599479-5013948,00.html
LTEP,
I’m interested in this 5 seat shortfall prediction. Do you reckon it will fall short of the 16 or pick up some and lose others elswhere? If so, I’m keen to know where you think the ALP might lose some held seats. I don’t think many people are talking about the few seats where ALP could struggle to retain power – given the size of the task ahead, I would have thought more journos would be looking closely at the ALP held marginals that could go to the coalition with a strong, strategically driven trageted seat campaign. If the ALP gets the magic 16 and then loses one or two that it cutrrently holds, I can see heads rolling all over the place.
It’s a very dramatic, very plausible outcome.
Thoughts anyone?
Not true Swing Lowe – if the 2PP pattern is going to break it will be in the last fortnight.
I think the point about the 2PP is that people want to vote JWH out, the polls have reflected that all year. It is a question of whether the KR edifice/lead can withstand the 6 week campaign.
If the rivets are going to start popping out it will be in the last fortnight as the accumulated contradictions within Labor build up and become apparent to the voter.
Finally, some policy announcements today – 9250 nurses, $2.55bn on Qld roads, whilst Costello releases an ad:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22601259-5013871,00.html
Newspoll will definitely be taken this weekend with 1600+ surveyed, and probably be out Mon so the Oz doesn’t get gazumped. I think that Galaxy should be out late this week, with ACN late next week. Newspoll will poll every weekend from now on. You can see my tentative poll schedule here:
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=929
I believe there is a Morgan Poll due on Friday 19/10
Ashley, I saw some ACTU anti workchoices ads on TV Monday evening.
143,000 people removed from the electoral roll! More manipulation of the electoral process by Howard:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061746.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Morgan 19/10… Predictions?
ESJ, where are these accumulated contradictions within Labor? I can’t remember them releasing policies that contradict with each other. As long as they don’t overspend, they should be fine in this regard.
I also disagree with your analysis of 2PP movement – all year, Coalition ministers have been saying that they would expect a narrowing of the polls once the election is called. Now, the election is called and if (big if) there is no narrowing, what are they going to say, particularly as they’ve fired some of their biggest guns (in terms of policies and ads) so early?
Breaking news – an Australian soldier has been shot and seriously wounded in Iraq. Apparently injuries not life threatening and he’s conscious.
Prediction for the Morgan Poll:
The Annoying Nerd 55%
The Grumpy Old Man 45%
60/40
65/35
Ha! very funny!
EStJ – You serious? LOL!
Is it F2F or phone?
58-42
ESJ
glad you have finally come to your senses
well done and all that old chap
57/43 – and the MSM will claim the 0.5% movement as evidence of the Coalition having the early momentum in the campaign…
Don’t quote me but think it’s f2f last weekend
A press conference for that BS. Hell.
.
.
No. They will claim of a huge surge back to Howard and the start of a landslide win for the Libs.
Thanks Lord D.
Am I that biased, I honestly reckon Rudd is going well at the moment. Howards tax policy is a bribe. Rudd will not be rushed to produce his. Rudds housing policy is a beauty. And of course Howards cash rate gaffe. The media are up themselves like usual.
What about Costello trying to defend Howards 6.25%? Costello you are an olympic gold medal class HYPOCRITE.
352 – Graeme – Tks, I was trying to stimulate a higher level of discussion here! My comment was obviously in the context of polling since it became a regular part of the political scene in Australia over last 20 years.
Btw, does anyone here know how Richard Farmer scored yesterday in his Daily Verdict on Crikey?
I don’t have a subscription, so I only got to read the first sentence.
Got till 8.00pm tonight to update changed name/address details with AEC.
Forms must be ‘taken, faxed or emailed’ to get there in time.
‘Enrolment forms can be downloaded from http://www.aec.gov.au and are available at any commission office, Australia Post outlet, or Medicare,Centrelink or tax office.
The roll removal will hit people who have moved within an electorate and who, in previous elections, were able to enrol on polling day and cast what was known as a provisional vote. That allowance has been removed’.
17 October 2007 Canberra Times
143,000 voters knocked off roll
Hey Guys
I’ve got a vision for our nation that I’ve worked on for the last eight years and I have been lobbying the parties for the last month.
So far the Greens,Democrats and a few independents have agreed to cooperate.
Obviously Rudd is too busy at the moment so I took the liberty of contacting Sharan and it looks like the ACTU are interested.
The Australian Business Council won’t commit but hopefully I’ll swing them around after the election.
The web site will be up soon and is sponsored by a certain web design company.
The vision is called “The Great Southern Cross Project.”
More will be revealed after the election.
The vision is called “The Great Southern Cross Project. ………….Its already been done, it’s a train station in Melbourne.
Oh my god, they’re still talking about Vote-A-Matic…
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22601475-29277,00.html
Sky News reports “latest poll shows support for coalition.” They are really trying to spin the newspoll issues survey like a top.
No mention of Labor’s nursing plan.
L Duce @ 295.
The reason for Howards inaction on Climate Change is because he listens to idiots like Alex Robson (he is wrong and should know better):
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/opinion/story/0,22049,22596889-5001031,00.html
Rather than people like Gary Pearse: http://www.highanddry.com.au/
Hope this helps!
Sorry: GUY Pearse, not Gary…must have rugby on the brain.
I got an offer of work for a polling place for the election today and politely turned it down.
Wild horses couldn’t drag me away from live coverage of the Rodent’s concession speech
And there is the problem that is Howard & Costello – they have never had substance and have previously relied on good luck, disasters and fear but never on competence or policy.
Now they are into a battle where fear and xenophobia will no longer work and people are begining to sus out the source of the economy, people are looking at policy – failures. Until Rudd put things on the policy agenda Howard actually had nothing as an item except keeping his power and serving the USA.
The $34 bn in tax cuts is a remarkably inane and unimaginative way to spend the surplus typical of a team who have no understanding or vision. WHEN the big issues in recent times have been health, education and housing affordability they can think of nothing more than tax cuts [and for all, neccessary or not].
The juxtaposition of Rudd announcing funding for 9,250 nurses with Costello releasing an ad campaign is hilarous and informative.
99 – 1 with and OZ headline of “Howard hangs tough’ and Dennis Shanaghan interviewing the only coaltion voter left in the country
Glad to hear the worm is back. Hope it bites Howard on the arse.
CW @ 383
Only if you are enrolling for the first time or re-enrolling after being removed.
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Fact_Sheets/Close_of_Rolls.htm
If you are changing address it’s the 23rd.
Optimist
The 5 seat shortfall that LTEp talks of is in regards to a clean sweep.
Ie Katter Windsor and 3 others will be left, probably Tuckley, Abbott and Costello.
Crikey scored yesterday narrowly for Labor
“link to leichhardt story
http://abc.com.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061813.htm
“She used to actually work on a prawn trawler,†he said.
“She’d take most blokes and sit them on their backsides.
“I’d be a bit wary if I was the Nationals candidate.â€
Mr Crossland has been unavailable for comment.
love it!
Excellent Gusface. Poor Crossland had better watch out she doesn’t gut and fillet him, before tossing what’s left into the chiller.
I was in Leichhardt recently and it’s an uber-blokesy place, I must say. Apart from the resorts and the Daintree, of course.
Ran into a bloke in a bar in Port Douglas who was the spitting image of Ivan Milat too. He offered me & the better half a lift back to the hotel, but we thought better of it.
Head on a stick, anyone?
That’s pretty sad for the Libs, just a day after releasing their “big gun” tax policy.
Re – more nurses… great idea in light of what’s happening here in Victoria. Today seems to going well. Costello is a complete knob. Somebody please tell my vote will count in Higgins.
Howard/Costello continue to firm in the betting. The big money is all on Team Rodent. The polls are a complete load of garbage.
Kina,
Does that mean we’ll get the headline: “Rudd Tackles Nurses?”
How come The Gimp isn’t following Howard around today?
Ooh! The trolls are back….must have finished their afternoon nap…nothing like spending the afternoon in the bosom of dear old mater.
Has anyone else noticed that Howard has taken to referring to Costello as “Peter”?
He used to say “Mr Costello” or “Peter Costello” but now apparently they are all chummy so it’s just plain old Peter.
Labor 53/47 in the next Morgan. I think there’ll be a swing back. It’s only natural, given the tax policy.
They can only stand each other in small doses. Howard doesn’t like to look short.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2062096.htm?section=justin
‘Howard knows he will lose debate: Brown’
“Mr Howard lost the last three debates don’t forget. I presume he knows he’s going to do it again. He’ll lose, he thinks, if he’s up against Kevin Rudd ” he said.
“So far Kevin Rudd hasn’t said he’s turning up. John I’ll come, and we’ll make it the most exciting debate there’s been for decades.”
Soon it will be “Petey”. Then “Pet”. Then “Piss off the election is over”
Labor’s fast response ad up on http://www.kevin07.com.au/
Way to go Peter – make industrial relations the issue.
Arbie Jay,
thanks for that. I’m still keen to know if many people have examined a scenario wherein ALP gets the magic 16, but loses one or two others. They could gain all their targetted seats, but there could be strong lib campaigns in a few seats that may cause problems for Labor – I’m talking about seats in W.A like Swan and Cowan or even Isaacs or Holt in Victoria. Admittedly, if the swing is on, it’ll probably be on nationally, but i still think it’s worth watching these campaigns very closely.
For instance, David Marr made particular reference to Isaacs on Insiders last Sunday. He said something about how the Sudanese / Andrews dogwhistle was all about the seat of Isaacs. This may well reflect the Government’s thinking on how to try and make progress in these seats.
Thoughts anyone?
Costello as the ‘Gimp’. Thats priceless!
Antonio, I assume the poll will have been taken last weekend, therefore the tax cuts will not be factored in.
Wow, that was fast! I’ve seen the response ad before the actual ad.
Ruawake,
That was bloody quick – I’m becoming more and more impressed with the Labor campaign every day. Obviously, they’ve prepared for these ads well in advance and I think it’s smart that they’re not going negative early.
Btw, the Youtube link for the ad is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHtUAWFm2sQ
Where can I see the Lib ad? ESJ?
Also of note is that the Liberals haven’t yet uploaded their ad to their website or Youtube channel – so the response ad is actually up before the actual ad…
What have we seen so far from the Libs this campaign?
1. More tax cuts – already tried budget 2006 and 2007 – no noticeable impact on polls.
2. Another union scare – tried at various times all this year – hasn’t worked.
Costello even tried the old “c” word (”communist” – not that other one) in reference to Julia Gillard’s university background. They must be getting very desperate.
Their policy seems to be – Try it and if it doesn’t work, try it some more. Then they wonder why the polls don’t shift. Meanwhile Labor slowly tightens the screws with a campaign that has worked spectacularly for the past two years – IR.
I know who I will be putting my money on (already have actually).
Arbie@395..priceless
Evan@397-Crossland wouldnt want to come the raw pawn with her!!
Prediction 59.5/40.5
an attack ad on an attack ad before the ad attacks.
genius.
Bloody genius.
Those line of ads are very savvy. The screaming union guy actually gets conflated with the Libs while Rudd pristinely surveys the mud slinging from on high, as pure as the white snow. The Libs must hate it..
ALP to hold at 57/43 next Morgan.
No one gives a crap about producing an instant tax policy upon the demand by some boring old get.
One media problem for the LIB is that any talk of them being in the race has resulted in an immediate 2% poll boost for ALP over the alst few months.
But if they play underdog too whiningly, they look like losers.
This sort of bind doesn’t tend to develop unless you’re time is simply up.
John Howard looking very ratty – tells Rudd to “Grow Up” he must have employed Alex Downer as his script writer.
How do they measure? The only real won or loss is on how it affects voters.
Big tax cut event – probably will win voters over; lots of favourable media coverage for Howard, maybe some more votes.
Most punters are not emotionally engaged and give only passing attention to most things political. I guess the only thing they would have heard in the past few days is Big Tax cuts…blah blah. Rudd’s 9,250 Nurses should also register – if it is reported fairly
However I get the feeling the electorate might be a bit bored, it has been a long campaign. I suspect the polls may only move just a touch the Govt’s way – but you wont be able to tell in one poll.
The last Morgan was 57.5 which was on the lower end of MOE with the top being their 59.5 or something.
I’m guessing about 58/42 but with Morgan of late it can be anything. A 60/40 would be hilarious but a 55/45 a bit concerning [for a morgan].
Rudd will run his nurses initiative today and tomorrow and probably do something on Friday, but not something large just something to make it appear he is doing something. Too early for big guns.
That atest one is brilliant.
As I said – the remote control trope is unadulterated raw genius. Its every TV bound punter’s dream come true – the master remote that turns the ad off.
I want some of whatever that ad agent was snorting.
And low-cost too. How easy is it?? Kruddster just spruiks for 10 seconds after the remote goes click. masterful.
The Libs will be spewing….. hehehe.
let’s face it folks: Team Rudd is smarter than Team Rodent.
First sign of decent opposition in 11 years, and Howard looks just as lame as 87. he gets my vote for most overrated pollie in Australian political history.
I urge you all to vote “Yes – to Labor” on this online poll, just to annoy the News Ltd journalists, who have to pretend that this is for real:
http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5013109-5031291,00.html
What a silly poll. I don’t even bother reading comments on stories anymore since they’re just infiltrated by party staffers. Sort of defeats the point of having comments at all.
Thank you Socrates for your post, very informative.
I suspect this means you could cut petrol tax by a few cents a litre and it wouldn’t actually increase consumption. It would just give people money that they could spend on other things.
I LIKE it when they say polls that don’t show support for the government imply support for the government. It will just solidify the Labor vote.
Soon it will be “Peteyâ€. Then “Petâ€. Then “Piss off the election is overâ€
And after that it will be “leader of the opposition”.
Kina Says:
October 17th, 2007 at 3:13 pm
398
Ashley Says:
October 17th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
Crikey scored yesterday narrowly for Labor
That’s pretty sad for the Libs, just a day after releasing their “big gun†tax policy.
How do they measure? The only real won or loss is on how it affects voters.
You can read about how they make their judgement here:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/the-daily-verdict.html
Basically it is determined by what stories in what media, and whether they are favourable or not.
Expect to see Howard and costello get increasing desperate and risky in their behaviour if the polls dont move. Given their massive sense of entitlement and visceral hatred of Rudd who knows what they’l do. I wouldn’t rule out them crashing the Labor party launch with a mob of young liberal bovver boys wielding cricket bats.
yes, sean, it’s beautiful. a tirade from a trade unionist (was that norm gallagher?) juxtaposed with cool, calm and collected kevin. it completely destroys the rodent’s attack ad. it’s perfect. labor must have a seriously smart ad agency engaged.
Antonio, Lefty E Next Morgan Which is it 53/47 or 57/43?
I don’t have time to read the entire set of comments, but I do have one thing to say.
How much of the dropoff in Labor’s IR support is from the far left getting annoyed Kevin’s not going to reverse more of Workchoices?
You cannot possibly tell from the poll, but it might well be that the Libs have the far right third, the ALP has the middle third and the “undecided” are in the far left!
I’ve got a stats degree and you need to be very careful with stuff like that….
What I find more amusing is the fact that the News Ltd story on the attack ads don’t have a link to the Liberal ad but do have a link to the Labor response ad – pure gold!!!
The poll of course just measures the demographic of on-line readers, until the young lib storm troops start religously clicking away.
Have a look at Howard’s recent spending commitments:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/bigspend.jpg
The hilarious thing is that if a Labor government did this, they would be shouted down by The Oz and the like for being wasteful socialists.
However it is OK for the Coalition to do this, because on spending commitments, they are kept to much lower standards.
[Sadly “Glen’s†appearances will be less over the coming weeks, the Senator has some special projects for him.] 115 ESJ
Say it aint so, Eddy. It was bad enough losing Steven Kaye to manage the Lib H/Q polling. I still miss his deconstruction of the Morgan polling figures. To lose Glen would really be too much. LOL!
new Liberal ad:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=ODT0ZO9EIwQ
A little of course I know but Bob Ellis’ article is worth a read: http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2061730.htm#comments
The first comment is mine.
Huh,
Labor’s ad seems to be responding to a different union ad – that’s a bit odd…
I am not throwing my money away
, will be better spent at the bottle shop 
Who belongs to that really low voice at the end of Liberal ads? Has it been modulated to get a sinister thing going on?
They can using keying to paste the other ad in.
Let’s face it folks: Team Rudd is smarter than Team Rodent.
Lefty E 425
It just gets better and better.
Although Howard’s debate offering is outrageous, Rudd should still participate as he will no doubt be branded as “scared” by the government if he doesn’t.
The ads are already made, it not like the Libs attack strategy is hard to figure out.
The donuts are already made, just a quick edit to put the real footage in.
Allow me to demonstrate how dumb these sorts of polls are.
The current results are:
Yes to Coalition – 31%
Yes to Labor – 25%
No – 42%
Back in 5 minutes…
Re the new liberal ad….the narrator talks as if he’s narrating a porn movie. Only the truly gormless could be swayed by this rubbish.
I’m not sure that the ‘anti business’ line is going to hurt Labor too much. I think theres a perception in the electorate that big business have too much power and that Workchoices is the attack dog of big business. The decades long propoganda war by the right to damage the unions only ever got traction when workers didn’t feel like they were being screwed over. Thats no longer the case and average punters are starting to realise that unions are the only thing standing between them and a dodgy AWA. The environmental movement is also causing people to question this notion that business interests are sacrosanct. In this light the Libs are putting too much store in the notion that Unions = bad. They’ve obviously been reading their own progaganda in the GG.
Rudd should not go anywhere near the old man’s setup debate – Rudd should have a moderated online discussion with the Australian public on Sunday night. That way he can be seen to be talking openly to the Australian public while Howard gathers dust in a big hall supported by the rest of “yesterday’s men.”
I’m actually pretty shocked that the rest of the media don’t have a problem with the format that Howard has proposed. Normally i ewould expect them to have something to say about what constitutes a fair debate.
Oh well.
re 446
ALP are catching up.
Yes, to Coalition now has 31% (419)
Yes, to ALP now has 27% (365)
No has 41% (550 votes)
Yeah Sean, there’s not much work put in to telling people why unions are allegedly “bad”. Its a bit daft to assume content is read.
The way they’re heading, my bet for the Liberal campaign slogan in the 2032 election:
“BEHIND YOU!”
Of course Rudd should have the debate, then in about a week or so say I am scheduling a second debate on Channel 9, with the worm.
Then he can put pressure on John Howard to debate him.
ruawake,
like your thinking. Very nice.
I can report this afternoon of another 3 life long Liberal voters who are going Labor at this election. Any remaining wheels on the Libs wagon must be getting very wobbly as I am sure that this sort of thing is happening elsewhere too {perhaps this is one of the reasons why the swing might be largest in safe Liberal seats}
…..
Went to pick up my kids from school today. Had a nice chat with my 9yo’s Y4 teacher on the way with the kids to the school gate. We chatted about politics prompted by my Kevin07 shirt which I am wearing today. She says that she has always voted Labor *but* this year she has converted her husband of 24 years, a life long Liberal voter, to the Rudd team. And as if that wasn’t enough icing on the cake, she said that she has also converted her inlaws, life long Liberal voters, to vote Labor this election for the first time in their lives. These are folks in the Gough Whitlam age group and perhaps it might be their last election.
We gave each other a collective high five and then I headed off with my kids.
The Lib ad makes the mistake of lingering last of all on Bill Shorten, whose face is well remembered as the Talking Head of Reason and Comfort from Beaconsfield. He doesn’t look like evil incarnate to me.
It’s one for the Lib core I guess. I’m sure there are blogs where Lib supporters are wetting themselves in delight over it. If you hate the unions, it looks terrific.
OK I’m back
Before I left….
Yes to Coalition – 31%
Yes to Labor – 25%
No – 42%
Now…
Yes to Coalition – 27%
Yes to Labor – 36%
No – 35%
I WIN!!!!!!
Not to mention Shorten has a Master of Business Administration, and is very well liked by some of Australia’s biggest companies.
BTW, poll is at
http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5013109-5031291,00.html
That’s gold, Ashley. Pure gold.
OK, I’m bored.
But hey, I’ll take it up to 40% before I sign off…
That Liberal ad loses a bit of impact by ending with Bill Shorten. Most people link him with the Beaconsfield miners, rather than see him as a mean union boss. And then you get that silly deep voice at the end.
Why can’t any political party leave enough room at the end of an ad so the compulsory authorisation reading doesn’t should rushed and stupid?
Labor could respond with ads showing Bob Hawke (”union advocate”), John Curtin (”union secretary”) and Ben Chifley (”union founder”) and pointing out what these people did for the country, and how they stood up for workers.
or perhaps they could show the Liberal frontbench with silly judges wigs, labelling them “solicitor” (Howard), employers advocate (”costello”) and so on.
It’s all very silly. It would be nice if both sides could debate their policies.
Yet Another Liberal Ad: http://youtube.com/watch?v=Jcs6f2NfpPs
Re that GG Poll – it strikes me that most of the 41% of no votes would be pro labor. The ‘no’ answer is negative to the proposition asking ‘would the anti union ads make you change your mind’. Most liberal voters aren’t going to say no since it looks like they would be rejecting the ads while Labor voters will tick that box. Lets face it how many intending liberal voters would be swayed by an anti union add to vote labor – bugger all – certainly not the ridiculous number cited here – 31%. I would suspect that a majority of the hard case liberals are therefore ticking the “change my vote to liberal box’
In other words the poll is rigged to maximise the anti union result. The GG will report it as saying that the ad has had significant traction in getting labor voters to change their mind…Absurd.
And yes, these polls are absolutely daft but they serve their purpose for Uncle rupe.
That low voice is really comical. It makes me laugh every time I hear it now. I’d love to see who it belongs to.
Yes, that’s the one with the nice man with the megaphone.
Ah, now Labor’s response ad makes sense. And it’s this ad that will be screening more often on TV (this one is only 30 seconds long, whilst the other one was 45 seconds long)
[Yet Another Liberal Ad: http://youtube.com/watch?v=Jcs6f2NfpPs
This is one is on the official Liberal YouTube channel. So post comments before they start blocking them.
When did this site become nothing but a Labor cheer squad that? I think it’s clear the Coalition has been successfully on the offensive the last few days and Labor have not convincingly responded yet. Even though Howard’s promise to debate himself came across to me as coco-bananas, it was clearly unexpected and shows that the Liberals are not above tactically brilliant moves.
I also think the Lib’s slogan and logo design for “Go for growth” is brilliant. It’s energetic, full of promise, and warns of the alleged dangers of voting Labor. The soft blue colour and font are also far superiour to “New Leadership”. I’m serious on that.
If the campaign was the deciding factor in who to vote for and not the last 11 years of poor governance, then the Liberals would be in the box seat right now. I doubt a spiffy logo will be enough to help them though. More likely to help them is the huge advantage of incumbency. A narrow election this will be!
You just beat yourself. The questions was:
” Close Vote Now!Will the Coalition’s anti-union ad change your vote?”
Yes to Labor – is a victory
No – is also a victory.
Thus 71% think the ad a waste of time.
Sign a petition online to voice your support for the worm
http://a4.eservicesesp.com/cts/click?q=81;9589;vh3fEZc96mlQVmodjhFrqg%3D%3D
!! NEWSFLASH !!
A new poll shows 41% of voters turning away from the coalition because of the Liberals anti-union advertising!
http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5013109-5031291,00.html
LOL…. please let me know when the Australian wants to do another poll. I’d be more than happy to participate. In fact, I’d go so far to say that my opinion is a bit of a vote-swinger.
Yes, Sean, 31% was ridiculous. It’s up to 41% now. Obviously a nice cookie-free zone. Here I go back to vote again.
That low voice sounds like someone possessed by the devil…straight out of The Exorcist…..well I guess it is an ad for the Liberal Party afterall.
[Sign a petition online to voice your support for the worm
http://a4.eservicesesp.com/cts/click?q=81;9589;vh3fEZc96mlQVmodjhFrqg%3D%3D
It looks like they are using the worm, but not live. From memory that is how it has always been, with perhaps the exception of ‘93.
re 467
That’s true. The libs have done better int he campaign so far. But as pointed out by others, they didn’t start equal.
The ALP does need to make sure they don’t become entirely reactive for the whole campaign, however. I think they need to announce a major policy (NOT tax) to try and get things moving on their side.
dembo, I’m inclined to agree that the Coalition’s campaign so far has been more interesting than Labor’s. However, really the only interesting event has been the announcement of the tax cuts.
New Leadership is a terrible terrible slogan. People don’t hate Howard and they may question why new leadership is required.
However, I question the impact a campaign has on people’s voting intentions. People generally don’t pay much attention. If the Coalition are returned (and I think they will be) I don’t think it’ll be because of the campaign, but that people were never really going to vote for them to begin with.
I agree that the cheerleader quality of this website is very off-putting, and embarassing in the event the ALP lose. Just imagine how these posts will look in 5 weeks when the ALP has lost.
Brian Mc, Sean — in case you missed it: approximately half of the pro-Labor votes in this poll were placed by me. These polls are just silly. But I hope someone writes an article about it.
Bugger, the Labor vote is dropping off now I stopped. =)
I’m not convinced by “Go for Growth”, dembo. IMO, Plays neatly to the ALPs main economic card: the govt is all macro, not in touch with the lived economy, not workplace laws, not people’s income, or own living standards. All GDP and profits.
having said that, I share your reserve about “New Leadership”. Not sold on that at all.
You don’t think that Labor’s announcement aimed at getting 9,000+ nurses back in our hospitals is not a major policy?
This is a major reason why hospital beds are unavailable – great policy.
All the Libs can do is go negative – union bosses, boo. Puerile.
LTEP @ 475,
How did you come up with that conclusion? Is it just a hunch or do you have any polling figures to back you up?
It’s all a bit of fun – if you try to remain serious about this for the entire campaign, you’re going to get exhausted (or end up looking like Piers Ackerman – neither is a great option). And seriously, who is going to be looking at these posts in 5 weeks?
For anyone that missed it, I charted some of the numbers from this poll (2nd part of the post):
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/47/1/
Lefty E,
I agree. I think many people have the feeling that the reason the Libs need to go is not because they can’t generate wealth, but because they have no idea about its fair distribution. They can talk about growth til the cows come home, but even Howard admits that many have missed out on our apparently unprecedented prosperity. The message here is – “Vote Liberal, we’ll make the country richer……but don’t think you’re gettin any of it!”
LEP
If its off putting then why are you hanging around. Blogs are always full of consensus opinion/allegiance. Go over to one of the right wing blogs if you want to see real cheer leading. I think the comments on this blog are pretty sober. And if it will embarress you after the election then I suspect you don’t get out much.
Labor has a massive, unprecendented lead in the polls which has held without any statistically relevant change for the last year. Any comment pro labor’s chances isn’t biased its objective. Only someone who has a pathological predisposition to negativity could see it otherwise.
dembo@467 – what are you on? Didn’t you notice the soft blue background for Kevin’s recent TV appearances. Labor has stolen the Libs colours! In the box seat? I think we should wait until Week 5 to see who’s in the box seat. But, I agree, the election will be close, with a small Labor majority.
Sorry Ashley, did miss it. Well done…the conclusions right though…
Does anyone here have any take on held ALP seats that could go to the Coalition? I raised this as an interesting aspect of what may still be a tight campaign – Antony Green where are you when i need you? Anyone can feel free to respond to this notion as it might push the discussion toward actual electoral matters rather than the schoolyard teasing that most would agree is getting a bit tired.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22601944-12377,00.html
FEDERAL Treasurer Peter Costello was lost for words today when asked to explain why interest rates will go up sharply under a Labor government.
The Liberal website said that under a Labor government people could expect to pay $3276 per year extra on their mortgage, but Mr Costello didn’t know why.
Quoting from a 2007 Econtech report, the website said Labor’s industrial relations policy would push interest rates 1.4 per cent higher than they are today.
“This means working families will have to pay an extra $273 every month on their mortgage repayments,” it said.
But asked by a journalist to explain such figuring, Mr Costello didn’t have an answer.
“I would have to go and look at what’s on the website, and if I do I’ll give you the information,” Mr Costello said.
Asked again how the Government could say that mortgages were going up by such an exact figure, Mr Costello said: “You have asked me to have a look at it and see how it adds up. I’ll have a look at it and see how it adds up.”
Earlier this week, Prime Minister John Howard could not correctly answer what the Reserve Bank of Australia’s current cash rate is, saying it was 6.25 per cent when it is 6.5 per cent.
oh, I was referring to my post at #410
I certainly do, in fact it’s the only thing so far that I’ve been interested in and paid any attention to.
Election time is harrowing for supporters of both sides (states the bleedin) and a site like this allows combatants to let off a bit off steam. As long as it’s not totally offensive, well, OK. God, it’s not The Lancet …
Ash: you are a devil doing Satan’s work and you should be sprayed with something nasty. Very impressed, though. Wot’s a cookie?
#394
RGee Says
CW @ 383
Only if you are enrolling for the first time or re-enrolling after being removed.
http://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Fact_Sheets/Close_of_Rolls.htm
If you are changing address it’s the 23rd.
Thanks RGee. I got that from the Canberra Times. ??????
“New Leadership is a terrible terrible slogan. People don’t hate Howard and they may question why new leadership is required.”
Is in fact a very good slogan given the confused a stale state of the LNP leadership – only a few weeks ago Howard was close to being dumped, he is at risk of losing his own seat and who is Costello’s Treasurer?
And there was a AC Neilsen? poll that indicated a large % saying Howard was not trustworthy.
AND the PPM and approval ratings of Rudd and Howard make Leadership THE issue.
The LNP primary vote has been steadily bleeding away since 2001 and this time not into minority parties but into Labor. People intend to vote Labor unless Howard can find another $50 bn to donate cash to each LNP voter.
If the Coalition lose (and I think they will) it’ll will be because their campaign
wasn’t able to generate enough fear, they couldn’t find a suitable racist wedge and there was no major terrorist event to save them. The main reason for the election victories [as opposed to policy and good govt]. Yet.
The Chasers Tonight
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22601336-5001021,00.html
Even when they bald faced lie, they can’t get it right.
The Econtech report is utter bullshit and has not used any semblance of ALP policy to produce their dubious results.
That Tip couldn’t even answer one straight question over this fetid piece of work that he commissioned shows how incompetent the Libs have become.
He forgot the correct answer, which is “Because we make up anything we want to, we did it at the last election, and are using the same plan this election.”
JJ @ Thanks for that. Is the economy rated 5th? I must have fallen for the hype. I didn’t realise the top four Issues are: Health & Medicare, Water Planning, Education and The environment.
I’m sorry but I’m having one of those “DOH” moments. The Coalition is absolutely stuffed. They are as weak as p*ss on these issues.
The trump card will be played within two weeks of the election.
Can you guys guess what it is?
A hint…..it’s not personal tax cuts.
LOL! Another article about their stupid Vote-a-matic:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22601480-2,00.html
Well at least it wasn’t by The Australian…
fitztig9# could not agree more with your comment
Signing Kyoto? As we are the only country in the whole wide world that is going to meet its’ target.
Great answer from Rudd on tax policy
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600616-601,00.html
Is it just me or does the Lasseters guy on Sky News smack of being a bit biased and a bit dodgy.
The Rudd ad is as weak as wet lettuce he fails to note he is scraping the ABCC which has kept the militant unions in check even so Rudd can waste his money on replaying our ads its free advertising
Where is Labor’s tax policy? Still no tax policy from Labor shows how incompetent they are…and they say they are ready to govern huh!
So long as the Coalition is streaks ahead of Labor on the economy and national security they have a chance of winning…
and yes they (union bosses) are coming back if Rudd wins!
‘classic ad’ we’re coming back! – McDonald
re 499 Only becuase we got a special “Australia Clause” excemption in Kyoto……
What is the offcial interest rate?
C-Woo – you have got it in one. Having seen him before there is no doubt a Liberal cheerleader. Why do you think they have him on Agenda?
502 Glen Says: October 17th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
When during the 1996 election campaign did John Howard release their tax policy?
Derek Corbett asks:
Wot’s a cookie?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HTTP_cookie
Where is Labor’s tax policy?
504#
what is productivity and what are the tax rates?
506#
when did Labor bring out theres in 1996?
Glen
Swanee’s abacus is working overtime – don’t worry Labor has a tax policy. Meanwhile the coalition fiddles with PAYG tax rates.
“where’s your tax policy, where’s your tax policy, where’s your tax policy”, hahahahahahaha! I thought the Liberal slogan was “Go For Both” (…oooops, I mean “Growth”)
And Glen (502) please, please, please stop and think for a minute.
The tax cuts announced on Monday were, in fact, Government announcements as part of the Mid-year economicial and financial outlook. They also released a whole bunch of new data, that the Liberals have had for a number of weeks now.
This means:
1. The ALP has had 2 days so far to fine-tune it’s tax policy with the most up to date information. That’s hardly extreme. Rudd is perfectly within his rights to wait a few more days (if not a week or two) to announce his tax policy.
2. If you’re being really pedantic the Liberals have not annonced a tax policy in this election campaign either.
Glen,
It’s good to have you back. Things were getting a bit dull here (LTEP was starting to cop flak for being a right wing troll).
First question – why is the ability to release a tax policy in the first week of a 6 week electoral campaign such a strong indication of electoral competence? There’s plenty of time to release a tax policy – and it’s better to get it right than to get it out fast.
Secondly, if you look at the Newspoll figures, the top 3 issues (by a 10+ margin) are health, water and education – all with big Labor leads, whilst the economy is 5th and national security a poor 8th (second last). Maybe it’s time for the conservatives to realise that “It’s NOT the economy, stupid!”
The Econtech report was of course modeling a world that doesn’t and won’t exist. The Howard Govt being dishonest as they are don’t care if they lie and apparently much of the media care about truth either.
And of course Costello couldn’t explain it he knows nothing about ecnomics except what he can parrot.
The media have so badly failed to hold the government to account on anything they believe there is no difference between lies and truth.
I guess Labor could have commissioned fairlytale report that Howard’s waste of our prosperity will leave the country in ruins.
Poor Glen. If only Costello had had the gumption to carp the way he does this could all be so different.
Actually yes we have RA because while all the left wing peddlers have been saying its just a tax cut it actually is a 3 phased tax policy that will bring down the tax rates for most people to 35% and will ensure low income earners of part time workers arent taxed for the work they do…it is a tax policy not just tax cuts…
BV ‘new’ inexperienced leadership ahahahahah!
Rudd looked such like a noob in his press conference saying new leadership 20 times lol all talk that is KR.
Swing Lowe, you can’t have additional spending for health, education and water if you have a non-existent economy.
The economy is everything.
No. 516
Summed it up all in one. Kevin Rudd is a spin doctor. Nothing more.
Glen, I can tell you’re a Liberal voter – grammatical errors and atrocious spelling.
Liberals-Go For Growth.
Does that mean if Howard gets back in, we will all get penis extensions?
By the way I wrote down the coalition seats currently favouring Labor in the betting from the Centrebet site. The total was 14. if, for argument sake, they were right, and that occurred, that would be a loss of majority government for the coalition. Gerard Daffy didn’t mention that of course.
If you are a coalition supporter you would love watching Agenda. you would think the Libs are a mile in front. Nothing Rudd does is good without qualification and howard always looks a winner. I’m convinced I’m watching a different election campaign.
“Swing Lowe, you can’t have additional spending for health, education and water if you have a non-existent economy.
The economy is everything.”
Are you saying after eleven and a half years we still can’t have these things? Time to throw the tories out in that case. Without water, we’ll see how good your economy is.
No. 519
passthepopcorn, I can tell you’re a Labor voter – character assassination and spin.
Optimist @ 486,
I can only think of two ALP held seats that could go to the Coalition and they’re both in WA:
- Cowan (0.8% swing needed) with MP Graham Edwards retiring
- Swan (0.1% swing needed)
I’m just hoping this election campaign exposes those truly biased sectinos of the media for what they really are.
No. 522
Funny how you conveniently forget the $10 billion water plan.
Now that is why your heros are in such trouble and why they will lose this election.
Steve what is crazy is that people still think Labor is better to manage Water when they have never had a water policy other than to fix leaky pipes whereas the Coalition has had its 10b Water Plan out since early this year…why should anybody think the ALP can manage water without any policies only the Coalition has a plan for Water…Labor’s plans were and are still to block the Coalition’s Water Plan thank you Victoria!
nothing wrong with having high standards, mr candelori.
No. 527
I suppose we just create money out of thin air if we have no economy?
Grow up.
526 That wasn’t a water plan. An unfunded joke that never even went to cabinet and has achieved nothing since.
Ah yes the $10 Billion water plan. No Treasury input. Quick grab an envelope we can work something out.
“Funny how you conveniently forget the $10 billion water plan”
PLAN? Did cabinet discuss it? Did Turnbull know about it? Did treasury cost it? Ha Ha.
rcandelori @ 526,
It is the failure of this plan to get any political traction for the Coalition that demonstrates just how stuffed they are. This may well have been a good plan – but everyone thought it was crap or an election stunt – and thus, it has been forgotten. It shows that even when the Coalition comes up with half-decent policies, they get thumped in the polls.
Mark my words, anytime the Coalition tries to engage on those top 3 issues, they will get thumped in the polls…
rcandelori, you sound like a Marxist!!!
As with many of Howard’s policies of late – policy on the run. Water plan, reconciliation, hospital take over. All designed to do one thing – get him re – elected. What a joke.
Btw, the conservatives on this blog think they may have had a good week so far (and they’re probably right as well).
BUT – wait until Labor rolls out their attack ads – 70% of Howard’s front bench don’t want him to be PM, why should you?, How far will Howard go on Workchoices next time?, How many nurses will lose their job under Workchoices II? – all of these will make the Liberal party ads look soft, and believe me, you will be feeling the (electoral) pain after these ones come out…
John Howard supports Kevin Rudd’s plan on nurses. Echo echo …
Agenda played Howard telling Rudd to “grow up”. He looked shrill and agitated. This was described by one of the guests as looking strong.
P – lease!!
Btw, Greens are preferencing Labor in more seats than in 2004:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22602086-5013945,00.html
No. 538
LOL Given that the ALP has copied or agreed with the Coaliton on many headline policies, that’s a bit rich.
He sounded Shrill too.
rcandelori – so it’s ok for Howard to support Rudd’s policy but not for Rudd to support Howard’s?
No. 540
The greens demonstrate a most ridiculous level of hypocrisy by preferencing the ALP, especially given Brown’s latest tirade against Garrett.
I think it will be a waste to campaign in WA today or tomorrow once this is made official.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22602175-5005361,00.html
My theory comparing the Eagles to the Libs imploding continues
Today in the mail i recieved some liberal party advertising, and as i live in a safe seat (Cook) it was expected, and as someone pointed out earlier apart from the usual rant about unions and rudds inexperience and the economy a significant amount of space was givin to airing popular local issues such as the desalination plant at kurnell, cronulla beach and state government inability to build the F6 through the shire. Has the coalition completely given up on the issues that they are seen as weak for them? because it seemed to me as if it was the march state election again
This 70% of Howard’s ministers didnt want him is bullsh8t because had that been the case Howard would have been booted fact is he still had the support of Cabinet and thats why he’s still the leader…at least our ads are factual with 70% of a Rudd ministry being Union affiliated either as members or officials that…Labor’s puny Workchoices Mark II ads will be pure smear because we’ve gone as far as we can with workchoices and there wont be any changes these ads will be lies lies lies…if you thought our ads were negative you aint seen nothing yet Rudd is going to be jack booted with our next lot the L plate campaign is going to destroy him and Labor’s inexperienced front bench you just wait!
Well, Brown has given the Libs and their supporters to hate him even more. He’s got his priorities right. Get rid of Howard.
well, you’d be shrill and agitated sitting across from the bloke who you know is going to be taking your job in a few weeks time.
Wishful thinking Glen.
Sounds narky today. Must have been hot in the chicken suit.
Glen, as both you and I know – smear campaigns work. The Coalition used it to great effect federally in 2004 and the NSW Labor Party used it to great effect this year.
The problem for the Coalition is that Labor has had practice with attack ads from the NSW State Election and would have been honing them to perfection over the past few months. By delaying the release of them, Labor can go into the debate on Sunday claiming that they have tried to be positive whilst the Coalition have been negative.
However, I think the Coalition have fired their biggest shots of the campaign already (both in terms of policies and ads). I hope for your sake that they work, coz otherwise you guys are going to be utterly stuffed…
Lose the election please @ 4.09pm “People don’t hate Howard”. aaahahaha. Even Howard knows that people loathe him.
What about Howard telling Rudd to grow up??? LOL The ad is ingenius.
Yes Howard and Costello are becoming more shrill, as are their loyalists on here. It is only week 1 and already the pressure is getting to them, I doubt Howard will last the campaign.
There is no doubt Rudd is getting under Howard’s skin.
But Rudd is a coward and he wont face Howard on Sunday because he knows if he does he wont get the 2 others he wants!!
Labor have had a negative campaign from day one, trashing everything the Howard Government has done and trying to start a fear campaign on workchoices Mark II…this is how Labor wants to win using fear and smear and it will backfire for Saint Krudd.
“What about Howard telling Rudd to grow up??? LOL The ad is ingenius.” Centre which ad do u refer?
Bahhahahahahahahahaha Glen, that’s pure gold! Please post something in a similar tone on the evening of November 24th and I’ll try and make sure I haven’t had too many celebratory drinks by then not to remember to tune in to Tantrum TV!!!
Glen said “at least our ads are factual with 70% of a Rudd ministry being Union affiliated either as members or officials that”
and lied through his teeth when writing it. The liberal ads say they are all Bosses.
PJK the ads say Union Officials which means union affliated/members/bosses/secretary’s ect the lot!
better luck next time mate!
glen, i’m worried you’re not taking your medication.
Labor’s $1.5 billion upgrade of the Ipswich motorway today is probably the biggest vote mover.
Even Bruce Flegg – Liberal leader in Qld agrees it is a better plan than John Howard’s
Howard’s an odd one. He calls a six week election and then stomps around demanding that everything – tax policy, debates, etc, happens in the first week. What are we meant to do for the next five weeks? Sit around looking at our watches?
Glen,
I can bet my bottom dollar that Rudd will be there on Sunday – it would be idiotic not to be there and give Howard 90 minutes on national TV to rant and rave about the dangers of voting Labor. I have become more convinced of this now that Channel 9 are using the worm for the debate.
And Glen, this is politics – it’s dirty and dangerous and there’s no better exponent of this than Howard. So if you’re going to complain about a Labor smear campaign, I have one thing to say to you:
Harden the f*** up!!!
No 559
Instead of ad hominem attacks, substance please.
Qld has a Liberal leader?
There’s a song from yonks ago by Melanie: “Lay down, Lay down (Candles in the Rain”.) Always liked that …
I don’t care what the tories say Rudd has to answer the negative ads. He is doing it beautifully. The fact that Howard is responding and trying to say they are not negative shows Rudd’s tactics are working already. One guest on Agenda suggested it makes Rudd seem as though he has a glass jaw. That criticism (the glass jaw) is known by those who study politics closely but the average person is not aware of it.
ruawake @ 560,
Do you have a link to the comment from Flegg?
The Ipswich motorway upgrade is a Billion dollars cheaper than Howard’s plan too. By the end of the week at this rate Rudd will have saved more than the cost of the Tory tax cuts.
Glen, you sound like you’re about to have a bit of a cry mate. Take some time to compose yourself & remember, it’s just politics. Like life, it doesn’t revolve around what you think is fair.
Just shows SL that Labor are hypocrites for attacking our negative ads yet Rudd has defined his campaign as a negative smear eats babies campaign about the re-election of Howard…so much for Rudd ending the blame game so much for Rudd staying positive…Rudd=hypocrite…
Is someone else using Glen’s log-in? (is this possible on this site?)
“PJK the ads say Union Officials which means union affliated/members/bosses/secretary’s ect the lot!”
Affiliated/members/junior employees are not by any definition of the term officials (ie someone vested with authority).
Are you a Liberal Party official?
Rudd seems to be getting under Glen’s skin too. Personally I would leave howard to it on sunday night. He might have the rusted ons watching but the rest will flock to other channels. All Rudd has to do is explain his approach to the debates. Howard needs these debates more than Rudd does.
Rudd has done extremely well to use the libs smear to show how negative they are and then add his own positive message as comparison. Great strategy there and it is working.
Where are all the right-wing trolls today? I thought they’d all come out of hiding when the election was called. So far on this thread it’s just the two stalwarts ESJ and Glen – plus someone called rcandelori (he or she’s just as funny as ESJ and Glen, though)
But where are the others such Nostradamus, Cerdic Conan and Steven Kaye? I do need a good laugh, as I haven’t heard from them for ages
Perhaps they’re all very busy on the phone or online at the local Liberal Party electorate HQ placing large bets on the Coalition winning, or writing letters to the GG in support of the Rodent and the Smirk.
http://www.kevin07.com.au/get-involved/sign-a-petition/worm.html
SAVE THE WORM
Who says im not a National Party official?
lol bahahahah
Drunken Tory Sailors?
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/coalition-to-trump-labors-seq-roads-plan/2007/10/17/1192300840039.html
Glen,
Politics isn’t a game for the morally pure. Sure, it’s hypocritical from Rudd to attack Howard’s attack ads before using his own.
But does the average voter care? I think not. Rudd’s message about Howard having the “mother of all scare campaigns” has resonated. When a Coalition attack ad comes up, people roll their eyes. When Rudd’s response ads come up soon afterwards, they agree with Rudd and pay attention. But when an anti-Workchoices ad comes up, they also nod with agreement.
This, unfortunately for you, is the current situation. Howard may cry “grow up” and you may moan about the hypocrisy of it all, but it doesn’t change anything. Smear campaigns work – and Labor’s got the better smear campaign this time around…
Let It End @533
That’s been my feeling since the campaign began: Howard is under enormous pressure, the prospects look bleak … could be a case of the spirit willing, but the flesh weak. I also get the feeling he’s really miffed at being forced to share the limelight with “Peter”. Stress can hit the best of us …
quick aside
a few posters here have been wondering who the voice over man is for the Libs attack ads
answer:the EB bagman LOL
Zander you are right (about Cook) after the Touke preselection debacle they are playing it safe. Particularly with Scott Morrison…he’s a nice white boy. Even saw him out on the hustings with UNSW rugby shirt (non-player of course). The Libs were livid when they couldn’t get Graham Annersley up in Miranda in the State election. I used to love thumping UNSW.
572 Glen – can anyone make sense of this? Please explain!!
re Glen @ 5.19 pm. Glen I have just read your comment. Mate are you serious!
Guys could you provide the links of the pause button ads to Glen.
Glen, enjoy.
But SL Rudd has shown quite clearly that he has a glass jaw ads that attack his inexperience are not smear they are merely informing the people of Rudd’s complete lack of experience and him not being fit for PM…Rudd has wasted lots of $$ to try and counter our ads and the more he does this all we have to do is bring out ads saying Rudd has a glass jaw…you dont see Howard or Costello appearing in Ads because Labor have attacked them…they can take abuse your fairy boy Rudd cant plain and simple…
581 Swing Lowe – spot on.
Glen @ 579 “Who says im (sic) not a National Party official?”
You are computer literate (barely). So you can’t be a National.
“The Labor Party has delivered a policy that will return control of industrial relations in this country to the union bosses. They have put union power ahead of workers’ jobs.” Howard – Vic Lib Council
“Will the interests of the Australian people be better served by having the trade union bosses back in town?” Howard – NSW Council speech
“This is a tricky and deceitful campaign by the union bosses to get Kevin Rudd into the Lodge” – Hockey
“Targeting the nation’s 1.9 million small business operators, the pamphlet features photos of Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union West Australian secretary Kevin Reynolds and his deputy, Joe McDonald. It says Kevin Rudd’s policies will give “militant†union bosses “more powerâ€,
Liberal pamphlet quoted
“The Labor billboard lampoons a Liberal advertisement that claims 70 per cent of Labor’s frontbench are union bosses.” Australia – oct 12
“”Gone out of business because of union bosses”. BCA ad
“And this is the pattern of behaviour from the Labor Party and the union bosses, they’re trying to sneak their way into government and you can’t get away with that because Australian people will start to focus on what these union bosses and what the Labor Party stand for” Hockey again.
And finally – look at the ad at the bottom of http://www.liberal.org.au/info/multimedia/detail/20071017_HowManyUnionOfficials.php
Oh yes – 70% Bosses….Liberals – Going for lying..
572 Glen – can anyone make sense of this? Please explain!!
It means the chicken suit was too hot, the medication ain’t working and his side is losing badly and the narrowing hasn’t happened along with no bounce for all the genius displayed so far.
PJK, that’s some pretty good research there!
Glen …”you dont see Howard or Costello appearing in Ads”
Good point Glen, they are not on any of the postal material either, are the libs ashamed of them?
It is quite obvious to me that the trolling element is setting out to sidetrack and devalue this site with their tripe and inanity, hoping that it will lead to its closure.
This will leave the field open only to MSM, with its close, incestous relationship to the neoconservatives.
It is no coincidence, (indeed I am amazed at their blatent transparency) that the same troll names are posting on this site now as posted previously on the Ozpolitics blog site, leading to its closure.
Despots need control of information, and the current crop have lost that contol as a result of sites such as this.That is the raison de etre of the trolls; to make this site meaningless as a source of information. By responding to them, we assist them.
Again, please ignore them.
PJK i have downloaded the ad and it says
Union Officials
Anti-Business Union Officials
Unionist
The only time is mentions Union boss was in reference to Joe McDonald saying we’re coming back…
Stop spreading your lies PJK…
I so loadth Howard that even if during the debate (if there is one), Rudd stumbles, mumbles, squares, curses, farts …
I’m still vote down Howard at the booth.
Liberal – “Go for booted”
Glen,
How well do you think ads saying that Rudd has a “glass jaw” will go down in the electorate? Will people believe them, particularly as they will be coming from the Coalition, who would have, by then, spent 2 or 3 weeks constantly running negative ads against him?
People aren’t mugs, Glen – they won’t believe everything the Coalition says. People like Rudd (witness his stratospheric approval ratings all year) – everytime you attack Rudd, it annoys those people who like Rudd.
Which leads me to my last point. In politics, perception = reality. If the perception is that Howard spends all his time attacking Rudd, then that becomes the “electoral” reality. Similarly, if Rudd is perceived as a nice guy who is being unfairly attacked, that will also be the “reality”. As you may note, both of the above “realities” favour Labor – a problem for you and the Coalition.
“I’m just hoping this election campaign exposes those truly biased sectinos of the media for what they really are.”
Well, as I was saying earlier, the disconnection between media hype over the government’s tax cuts and the ACTUAL in-the-pocket cash for individuals and families has already started to reveal the sections of the media who are campaigning for a coalition victory.
My take on the slogans…
‘Go for broke’ lol
‘Union leadership’ lol
And what’s more – that ad on the liberal site even has Gillard as a Boss! No wonder they have tried to tone it down on TV since they couldn’t get with lying any more….
Liberal -Really Going for Lying too much.
Wrong again PJK the ad on the website ‘who will run the economy’ say Gillard is a Union Lawyer…once again your arguments are not based on facts…
“PJK i have downloaded the ad and it says…”
Rudd has beautifully countered this ad, and VERY quickly too. I hope it gets as much airplay as the coalition’s disgraceful attempt at fear-mongering (yet again…)
http://www.kevin07.com.au/
Fulvio @ 594
Well said.
I find the policy of the Government concerning “union bosses†to be childish and silly. It reminds me of a kid yelling at one of his peers that his Dad is bigger and tougher that the other Dad.
We are all the product our experiences. I am a farther, a husband, a church member, a member of a service club, etc etc etc (the list is endless). To pick one of these and somehow say that that particular experience determines my life to the exclusion of all else would say more about the accuser than it would about me.
I am afraid, in my opinion, that this policy reflects badly the Government and its camp followers who support and propagate such an argument. It shows a lack of understand of their fellow man, as well as a lack of leadership. It shows that the Government is more concerned with playing the man and not the ball. It shows a lack of understanding for what is needed for the future of this country. It shows as lack of honesty in their dealings and a lack respect for others.
This policy also shows a lack of policy development in other areas or and an understanding of what the voters are looking for.
It is amazing that those who argue this case here do not understand how they are belittling themselves. It is an equivalent to “picking ones knows in publicâ€. You belittle yourself and everyone knows that whatever else you do your fingers are dirty.
Being a union boss or being associated with a union or proving a service for a union or knowing a unionist or having a unionist in the family does not determine anyone. It is part of the experiences of life which all should encounter in ones life. It is just a pity that there are not more in the Government with this experience. If so maybe we would have IR Laws that instead of punishing the worker would help them.
Well all I can say is that after all the discussion on here today, in the MSM and around work is that the libs have nothing going for them yet.
Tax cuts, scare campaigns and rear mirrors just isn’t doing it for you lads.
Best to come up with some new ideas and forward looking vision re the real problems facing this country or it’s game over.
Glen: you’re hilarious mate! Still getting your script from Liberal Party HQ?
Hah Noocat it shows Rudd has a glass jaw and they fear the public from knowing how beholden to the Unions they really are…way to waste millions of dollars on ads that are weak as piss…Labor should be spending time on developing a tax policy no trying to defend the indefensible Union links to the ALP…i guess Rudd’s PR team told him to do it like everything he’s done as leader since last year…
Glen said” PJK i have downloaded the ad and it says
Union Officials
Anti-Business Union Officials
Unionist
The only time is mentions Union boss was in reference to Joe McDonald saying we’re coming back…
Stop spreading your lies PJK…”
News for you, Glen McDonald is not a Boss…Big Kev is the Boss…and the add you are referring to is not the one I can see. Here’s that one.
http://i153.photobucket.com/albums/s223/wcekempy999/Lies-1.jpg
Thanks for the reply Mark (584)
I spent some of the day handing out how to vote cards in miranda, barry colier is a top bloke who unlike the libs actully is a very hard worker for the shire, much more so than malcom from cronulla who is about as useful as tony abbot in an abortion clinic, barry went so far as to address the problem of kicking the local council in the backside to make them do something about my local road which is full of pot holes and bingo, i get sent a letter telling me barry had spoken to the council and it would be fixed within a year. It would be nice to see at least one labor win in the shire on Nov 24, whats everyones prediction for the two shire seats? (huges and cook)
Congratulation to whomever it was who got Glen on the back foot.
There’s a discussion on ABC Radio about the old concept of having Homes for the Bewildered for people suffering trauma. The idea is a quiet place in the country, they put a blanket over the knees and the person is left to contemplate and stare at the wall. Hopefully to recover. Sounds like a policy idea to me.
The central risk facing the coalition scare campaign in relation to union officials is that it relies on the public believing “union officials/bosses” are in fact scary.
And, with union membership so low (as the Coalition has pointed out ad nauseam), most people have no dealings with union officials from which to be “frightened”.
From what I can tell, a lot of people lump “union official” in with “professional politician”, “party hack”, “spin doctor” and “lobbyist” as a type of person who works in a completely different field to the one they live in. They’d be far more likely to think them “boring” than “scary”.
And “boring” is likely to translate as “unthreatening”.
# 610 – Derek, sounds like John Howard’s future, to me.
Only Labor stooges and Union members wouldnt find Union bosses scary…
You’d have to be joking to think people wouldnt find Joe McDonald scary saying ‘we’re coming back’…id be locking the kiddies away when that ad comes on he’ll give them nightmares!
I find former AMA union boss Brendan Nelson very scary. As well as all those National Farmers Federation (Union) hacks who make up the agrarian socialist National Party.
I don’t find Joe MacDonald the least bit scary but the liberals scare the hell out of me,
One Exclusive Brethren boss is far scarier than 100 “union bossesâ€.
Unions don’t break up families.
I am a Union member… have been for 27 years. It makes me laugh when foolish people deride the benefits we have all enjoyed (both nonmembers and members) as a result of the work of unionists and their considerable effort.
My Union have worked tirelessly to support a multitude of worthy causes both here and abroad. The officials were elected by me and others like me to represent us. Who has the right to tell me I can’t be represented in such a way if I so wish.
It is beyond belief that 20% of the workforce can’t be represented by union officials as members of parliament. This 70% crap is hardly frightening. Most are brilliant people and hugely knowledgeable about the workplace, industry and business… far more knowledgeable than anyone the coalition could put forward.
Let us not forget that 16 years of growth was set up by the sacrifices of the union movement at the urging of it leaders to help Australia. I for one can never imagine the business council or AMA making any such contribution.
If you’re a Union basher you simply have no idea of the struggle it took to get to where we are today, by selfless and committed people. You need a good clip behind the ears.
For anyone interested, the Dennis and this Newspoll get the regression treatment.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/10/17/does-economic-management-influence-the-primary-vote/
Why in the hell did Costello single out Bill shorten and Greg Combet? They must surely be two of the best liked people in the country.
Joe McDonald scary? He’s a big of a joke over here in the West, to be honest. Sure he gives unions a bad name now and again but for every Joe McDonald in the Union movement there are 10 Bill Shortens or 10 Greg Combets – articulate, smart, likable. That’s what is really scary to the Liberals.
Liberal – Going for lying… again…and again.
The poor Libs around here must really be hurting. All that hysteria. Talk about fear and loathing.
Look fellas, your bloke has had 11 years and people have just grown a bit tired of him.
That’s life. Most marriages don’t last that long.
If it helps, try thinking of what’s going to happen on 24th November as a trial separation.
So, you see, Mummy and Daddy still love you and it’s not the end of the world.
Because Costello has fallen for his own spin, he thinks that any and every unionist in the country is inherently bad. I realise this is a pre-requisite philosophy for joining the Liberal party, but I don’t think it persuades many voters.
well there is an issue with having alot of former union officers at the top of a political party, but I don’t think it means that party should be denied government. The issue is a long term debate about the structure of the ALP that will go on for a long time.
Go for Growth. Vote Liberal. You know you want to.
Actually I find that offernsive, I have never been a union member and the only political party I have ever belonged to is Liberal but Unions do not scare me in the least. I understand why they are actually necessary.
You are either an ideologue or have led a totally sheltered existence to make such a ridiculous statement.
Sure, I agree with this. But I don’t think “long term debate about structure of the ALP” changes any votes either. I doubt many voters could explain the structure of any political party, or explain how one could be improved.
‘Why in the hell did Costello single out Bill shorten and Greg Combet? They must surely be two of the best liked people in the country.’ – post 619
—————–
These sort of statements simply illustrate the reality that William’s otherwise excellent site is overpopulated by unrepresentative trade union hacks and Labor Party buffoons.
The reality is that it’s only taken a couple of days for the Liberals to strike the fear of God into these keyboard heroes. It’s only taken a few days for the Libs to grab the political agenda by the throat.
And the Labor stooges are absolutely petrified – why? Because they know that Rudd and Labor can hit the Liberals with their absolute worst, but Howard and Costello are going to stomp on them that little bit harder.
Government returned with an 8 seat majority.
Let it end @ 625
Here here. Good for you.
Idiot @ 627
Change hands.
Wow – The Labor party are the political wing of the labour movement, whats changed in over a hundred years?
And the Liberal party must separate from the EB
Evan and Fagin: brilliant comments gentlemen!
I just saw the latest Liberal ad on TV: so bad it’s amusing!
Oh dear, I’m so scared, those horrible union bosses are coming to get me. The funny thing is the Liberals can’t pin the union boss label on Rudd LMAO
rcandelori,
Life been hard for you ever since they got rid of slavery?
The news services displayed Labor as the positive forward thinking party and the Libs as being negative and carping. Fantastic.
Go for a growth. Get a neuclear reactor next door.
Labor wins day three.
Looks like “Tabitha” has a sister
Please do not prod the trolls with pointy sticks.
It’s obvious that John Howard and Peter Costello are unfit for government as Johnnie cannot name the official interest rate and Peter Costello can’t even tell us why people’s mortgages are supposedly going up by $3000 a year.
This is just unforgivable.
If i was a liberal party supporter this is the time of reasoning i would use.
On the other hand i am not from the liberal party and what i wrote is b.s
Maybe the next time Rudd forgets something trivial we can point these gaffes out and the trolls will actually think about something for once instead of sprouting the usual tired old unions = bad, KRUDD is just a copy of Howard and where are the alp’s policies even though i just commented on one of them
Overall i think the election campaign hasn’t really altered the perception that this government is tired. Sure they gave out 34 billion but this is over 5 years and really hasn’t made much difference to the average voter out there.
If all the coalition has is tax cuts and scary unions then they should move over as they do not have an adequate plan for this country.
According to Crikey.com.au and MediaMonitors, 75% of talk back callers dismissed his tax cuts as an election bribe. See bottom of this page:
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/daily-top-10.html
“most public students are trouble makers”
perhaps this fella is Jaime from Summer Heights High.
ice444 the 34b arent just tax cuts it is actually a tax policy something Labor doesnt know the meaning of…so much for Labor’s mantra that we are the highest taxing government on record complete BS if you ask me…something tells me we’ll hear nothing from the Unions throughout the entire campaign because they know they will damage Rudd’s chances…
**IF** Costello keeps his seat, he will be staring across parliament at one or both of these guys on the front bench not too far away from where he used to sit. Just desserts for trashing them today ……..
So what’s the official interest rate?
I hope there are not people who really think that Higgins will fall to the ALP, that would be delusional.
They’ll both be heavy hitters. Costello doesn’t want to face them when he is in opposition.
No 672
Just as delusional as predicting the downfall of Howard in Bennelong.
No. 676
Crikey is a left wing mouthpiece. How boring.
well i know higgins more than bennelong and the margin is higher in higgins. Does bennelong have a toorak in its borders, dont think so.
Rudd’s latest ad: nice answer to the “Evil Union Bosses” crap from the Rodent. Labor’s ads look much more sophisticated this time.
Which advertising agency are they using?
Evan: yes mate, we have to be on guard for those Liberal Party trolls infesting this blog and the ozelections2007 board. Obviously these young Liberals have been hired to troll the political sites.
Mmmm,
Quite a menu of topics on this thread. Let me see, I’ll have a double helping of Glen’s favourite dish – hubris – with the candelori (which like cannelloni must be rich and stuffed).
Anyone else notice the really strange osmosis thing happening between Abbott and Hockey.
Abbott is getting more and more thinner and gaunt each day, whilst Hockey is really beefing up and filling out.
Is this due to some kind of wierd Opus Die Exclusive Brethen ritual.
HH that argument is stupid because Liberal supporters could argue that left wingers on this blog are Labor trolls…
Adelaide’s Channel 9 News election coverage led with Rudd’s nurses announcement, then followed with the Liberals anti-union adverts, but included a short clip of Labor’s response advert.
ShowsOn, the figures are interesting, however, as with news website comments I’m sure talkback radio is stacked with party stooges. I recall a Liberal Party staffer rang up ABC radio in Perth in the ‘04 election to trip up Jann McFarlane. She even pretended to cry over the radio. It’s really crazy stuff.
I seriously can’t stand to look at the comments sections of stories, which seem to be pointless. What they’re meant to be is an insight into the readers’ reaction to the stories. However, with the political news all we get are staffers rehashing the same lines over and over again.
You have to wonder whether anyone reads the comments and thinks they’re genuinely other impartial readers.
Back to intelligent debate….
So when is the next poll out??
Does anybody know what “Please provide an amount and click Update Totals” means on William’s donation page?
Saw the anti-Union ads for the first time tonight. They look cheap and I can’t see too many people taking them seriously. I can’t understand this union bashing. It’s not going to work and just makes them look silly.
No. 686
Well of course you would say it looks cheap and silly. You’re a Labor voter through and through.
Why bother with intelligent debate, when party lines are the only way forth around here?
Goodness, it’s all got rather heated on here this week! Must be an election on or something….
I guess we won’t know until the next round of polls comes out (and we won’t know for sure until 24th November), but my feeling is that the Coalition’s big tax “plan” has been a bit of damp squib. If that’s the case, then what else have they got? The trouble for conservatives is that they don’t really know how to spend money, which is why they’ve pissed these record surpluses up against the wall purely to get re-elected, while as a nation, we don’t (as yet) have much to show for it all. All Tories have is “TAX CUTS!” (TM) and scare campaigns. So how are they going to fill in the next five weeks?
On scare campaigns, the main thrust appears to be “UNION BOSSES!” (TM), but I can’t see this having too much of an effect (it hasn’t so far; after all, it’s not the 1970s any more). Their other scare fave is of course “DIRTY FOREIGNERS!” (TM), which I guess we can expect to hear more about in the coming weeks. However, barring some sort of Tampa-like crisis (and you can’t do the same trick twice), it’s unlikely that these calls to the collective dark side will have much effect either.
The Libs have got the same problem that all long-term governments (especially ones that don’t renew themselves) have, which is, just what do they plan to do in the future? Anything big they’ve planned surely they’d have done by now. Howard hasn’t really given us a reason for re-electing him all year – it’s all been politicking and crisis management.
Meanwhile, Kevin Rudd has talked calmly and optimistically about “THE FUTURE” (TM ALP).
Are you suggesting that Abbott is being eaten by Hockey?
The figures at least give an idea of the effectiveness of the stacking campaigns
rcandelori
Please try to debate issues, we all know that you follow the latest Liberal talking points – we know them, why do you need to repeat them.
You are preaching to the converted.
Labor won today by a mile, the Ipswich motorway funding will swing votes, the nurse retention scheme has gone down well (so well Howard has backed it).
The Unions bad – boo scare was predictable and is counter-productive.
The Coalition are trying things that have worked in the past – shame the electorate have moved on.
what like Rudd saying he’s a fiscal conservative?
Because Howard and Costello have expanded the federal beurecracy more than any other Australian government. So by comparison ANYONE counts as a fiscal conservative.
Are you suggesting that Abbott is being eaten by Hockey?
perhaps he’s just taking a bite every time they pass in the hallway.
No. 683
The thing is Hugo, the Coalition has a number of future-oriented policies, its just that Rudd launches into spin-doctoring, and suddenly he’s the media darling talking about the future.
Well, so far we’ve heard about this plan, but nothing has come into fruition. We’ve only been waiting 11 months.
LTEP
“I recall a Liberal Party staffer rang up ABC radio in Perth in the ‘04 election to trip up Jann McFarlane. She even pretended to cry over the radio. It’s really crazy stuff.”
Couple of months ago Virginia triolli got ambushed by a stack of libs ringing in and reading off rehearsed sheets, at the end of she was quite stunned and said that they were not your usual callers.
But people rejecting tax cuts in favour of funding health, education and infrastrucute is not new, polls have shown similar results after each round of tax cuts and each announcement of a massive surplus.
Main reaction is spend it on fixing up services as that is where the surplus came from by ripping off services.
A necessary, if trite, observation that I would make is that not everyone perceives the world I the same way. Most comments I have seen say that John Kevin Rudd did a better job this week in being interviewed by Kerry O’Brien than did John Howard. I don’t see it that way at all. Kerry O’Brien interrupted and talked over Mr Howard to a far greater extent than he normally did. I understand the frustration that interviewers have when politicians do not answer their questions, but I think there is a limit that was stepped over here. By contrast, while the questions to Kevin Rudd were reasonable ones, there was no pressure from Kerry O’Brien to get an actual answer. Mr Rudd showed a bit of life in some answers, but mostly it was long-winded and boring and added no depth to the debate. He has to lose some of his academic background and encapsulate his answers in a more pithy way.
Those who have argued that the gap will not necessarily narrow are right, but the current Labor performance suggests to me that it will narrow. There is no law that says gaps narrow during campaigns, but it will in this one.
I remember the days of policy speeches and a sense of a party standing for some coherent vision of society. Now it is all guerrilla warfare:
“I’ve got an education revolution.â€
“So what? I’m putting $10 billion in to the Murray-Darling.â€
“Well, I’m gong to abolish AWAs…in 2012.â€
“That’s nothing; here’s $34 billion for tax cuts.â€
“So what? I’ll top that with 9,000 nurses.â€
Glen,
The next poll is out on Friday.
Exactly, and that is what the polls reflect and why they won’t change.
The way the voice over guy says secretary in the anti-union ads; more like ’sec-a-terry’, is the only thing that really gets my attention. There is nothing that influences my vote more than poor pronounciation…
Shows On (683) – thanks so much for that image!
Actually, it may not be so far from the truth. The Libs WILL “eat themselves” if this election brings about a defeat as bad as it’s looking.
Ii seems Seven News here in Perth won’t be doing any election stories if this is correct according top their Newsmail.
All Howard has ever had is the big bribe and the big scare.
Unfortunately for him, neither is going to work this time around.
No, I tell a lie that comment was @ 668.
Anyway, perhaps rcandelori is a clairvoyant and time-travel who responds to comments that have yet to be posted? Maybe he or she is really the “Nostradamus” who sometimes posts here?
All the folk of the left should admit it. You all have that horrible feeling …..that Howard will do it again.
Libs ‘face civil war’ in wake of defeat
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061702.htm
This news story is guaranteed to give Labor supporters ‘wet dreams’ and Liberal supporters ‘nightmares’….
Question for the anti-union bloggers.
Name one significant working condition that employers have granted employees out of their own initative?
Chris Curtis.@ 675
My elderly mother rang me immediately after that interview and said Howard had taken 10 minutes while Rudd had only 6. (Hmm yes she doesn’t get out much.) That may explain Kerrie’s impatience… he does take forever to answer a question.
Doesn’t anybody know what that thing means on the donation page?
Gees, even Howard has weighed into the Ben Cousins Affair calling it a “Personal Tragedy”.
hmm, does this means Howard supports Druggies ?
I’m currently in the process of purging this thread of some squabbling. Rcandelori has been banned for threatening another commenter with legal action.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
rcandelori (670) – you seem to have this idea that elections are about policy. They are not, they are about narrative. Most people don’t pay too much attention to political comings and goings like we do here, and tend to be influenced more by the story that either side tells. Thus Howard wins in 1996 (by running against “special interests”) in 1998 (”the man with the plan”), 2001 (”defending us in scary times”) and 2004 (”keeping interest rates low”). Labor by contrast struggled to present a coherent story to the electorate (viz, 1996 – “don’t trust the other side”, 1998 – “don’t you hate Howard?”, 2001 – “save the furniture” & 2004 – “come on an adventure with Mad Mark”).
In 2007, fortunes have reversed. It doesn’t matter whether Rudd has a vision for the future or not. The point is that he’s talking about it, and raising some of the issues that we will need to confront. Howard, on the other hand, has no coherent narrative (”vote for me and I promise to retire” is probably not good enough) this year.
It’s also worth remembering that in 1996, one John Winston Howard went to the election with very few policies and very few points of difference with the Labor government (in fact just two – abolition of unfair dismissal protection for small business employees, and selling a third of Telstra). That did not stop him winning in a landslide.
I would be more scared of Extreme Brethren doppelgangers that stalk the hallways of Parliament house seeking out Ministers to invade. I can a few Ministers they have twinned already. Ruddock, Andrews, Nelson, Bishop, Howard – it is all becoming like a Blair Witch project.
Also interesting to not that Dr Hewson last night asked if the LNP lost the election if factions would take it even further to the right. Hewson laughed and said if it went any further right it would fall of the end of their flat earth.
Frank,
The way the Rodent’s been acting since he called the election, he must be on some sort of illicit substance. Of course the same can be said for his cheerleaders at the GG and the ABC.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22602274-5013947,00.html
Costello stumped by mortgage claim
‘FEDERAL Treasurer Peter Costello was lost for words today when asked to explain why interest rates will go up sharply under a Labor government.
The Liberal website says that under a Labor government people can expect to pay $3,276 per year extra on their mortgage, but Mr Costello doesn’t know why.
Quoting from a 2007 Econtech report, the website says Labor’s industrial relations policy will push interest rates 1.4 per cent higher than they are today.
“This means working families will have to pay an extra $273 every month on their mortgage repayments,” it says.
But asked by a journalist to explain such figuring, Mr Costello didn’t have an answer.’
Not the response you’d expect from dual headed leader and Treasurer of 11 years.
Please note that a lot of inoffensive comments were chopped because they were responses to comments that are no longer there.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Further to the discussion on the evolving campaign, I would propose that the heavy negative attack on unions and union connection to Labor, is further evidence that the LNP have got nothing beyond bribes, fear and smear, as correctly picked by Labor. Seems to me that Labor have got themselves prepared, and again if the long term trend in voting intention holds true, the LNP will gain little traction. I was pleasantly surprised this arvo to hear two callers to local ABC, after Joe Hockey had been on bamboozling the light weight Lindy Burns, telling two very different stories. The first person said he was a small business owner, in IT, who was fed to the back teeth with the attacks on unions, that he was quite happy with unions, and thought Hockey was a dill. The second said Hockey had been lying about what Workchoices actually enabled, in terms of reducing people’s actual real pay, quoting the case of the Priceline accountant who got fired, and the same position offered for, I think, $25,000 less. Lindy Burns is sweet, but utterly clueless about politics. Again, local ABC goes out across a lot of south east Australia, tends to be trusted because of critical role in disaster response, plus some other stuff, like acerbic Red. Though Jon Faine has been getting up my nose of late. Why can’t he stop talking long enough for the interviewee to respond?
.
.
If you’re talking about the Paypal page, you put the amount you want to donate in the box titled ‘unit price’ and then click the ‘update totals’ box.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22602810-5005361,00.html
Paul K @ 688
Thanks mate. All done.
And who could disagree with Mr. Howard on this one Frank?
# 601 Glen Says: October 17th, 2007 at 5:46 pm
I don’t trust any lawyers. At least with a union official, you know where his allegiances lie.
So… how much of the liberal front-bench are lawyers?
Apparently, the things that unite us are greater than our differences.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/world/cheney-obama-are-cousins/2007/10/17/1192300841165.html
Scary, isn’t it!
To our Tassie bloggers out there,
Wat happened on the 7:30 Report today?
Kerrie is giving Bob Brown a hard time.
Bob Brown is coping with it.
Greens’ supporters should be disappointed with their leader’s performance on the 7:30 report. Bob Brown looked and sounded as though he was advocating a vote for the Australian Labor Party.
Paul @ 695,
Yeah, he sure was. I don’t really understand quite what was going on there. But Bob took it in stride. Did you catch the line, though, that only 3 seats need to change hands in the Senate for the Greens to achieve balance of power? In that instance, they will work with Labor and then the Senate is out of the coalitions control any more. Only 3 seats nation wide. That is enough to convince me that I will vote Greens in the Senate.
697 comments on this thread in about 15.5 hours!! And we’ve still got 5.5 wks to go!! Looks like there’ll be 2000+ comments on the Night of the Returns.
Well, he is directing more preferences towards Labor than in 2004.
I think BB has realised that this is the best chance of Labor knocking Howard off since 1998 and he’s doing everything he can to ensure Howard goes down this time.
I figure he reckons that sacrificing some die-hards to the Socialist Alliance is worth it if Howard loses.
Watching Howard on the 7.30 Report tonight, one thing struck me as odd. The nodding head in the background. The eye went to the nodding head. Same as in Question Time, that wooden Nairn. It’s as though they’re saying: “Look – John Howard is speaking – and someone is listening.” Spooky. I think they are trying to hide John Howard. If voters look him in the eye, he will frizzle. Or voters will …
Let’s see the centre-Left utterly crush the Forces of Darkness.
David Charles, I think I know where you’re coming from. If Bob Brown is pushing for the ALP to be elected then why shouldn’t Greens supporters vote for them on primary rather than through preferences.
I’d be expecting the Greens to ignore the majors and run hard at restoring the Senate. Try and cash in on the distaste some people have felt to Rudd’s ‘me too-ism’.
How do people think the Greens will do at this election? My speculation is they’ll flatline, and receive just under what they received at the ‘04 election. There is a possibility they could increase their primary in some safe Liberal seats but they will not improve vastly in the ‘battler’ suburbs.
As a past Greens voter I’ve become strangely dissillusioned with the Greens. I suppose in that way I’m actually a swinging voter for once.
Swing Lowe, I think a large proportion of us realise that if we don’t get rid of the NLP this time, our polity will be mired in a neo con nightmare of the worst of bad SF scenarios.
LTEP,
I think the Greens will probably end up a bit lower than they did in 2004. They’ll pick up some small “l” liberals from the Coalition, but they’ll lose more to the ALP.
From the analysis of polling intentions, a fair chunk of Labor’s increased primary votes have come from the Greens (I believe that Possum did an analysis of this earlier this year). So yeh, a bit of a drop (probably not that much tho, as they’ll also pick up the residual Democrats vote)
Swing Lowe, I suspect many will deliberately vote green in the Senate as the balance.
704# Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs
Straight from Labor Party HQ, did they send you a fax just then HSO?
Personally I’d be happy with a Senate with neither Labor or Liberal having the balance of power. I no longer trust either of the two main parties with the Senate.
“All drugs are evil; they are bad.â€
John Howard
Does that include the undoubtedly most popular and destructive of them all, alcohol?
Twit.
#704 Very true, that’s why many of us will vote labor HR and Greens for senate.
Glen. whichever, Glen you are, you are a very silly person if you think you will get any response from me, other than this.
Trade unionism is historically the main reason we have one person, one vote in this country. Its the only reason we have the two-day weekend.
They’re also the reason fewer people are killed or injured in workplaces these days.
Its often also more convenient for both employers and employees to deal with a bargaining agent. Plus, unskilled or semi-skilled employees will find they get a hugher income and better conditions if they bargain collectively.
I know this is high level material, so tell me slow down if you’re not getting it.
On another theme emerging today, Id say some people on this site are going to look pretty silly when the polls turn out to have been indicating the bleeding obvious.
And I dont mean those who are bold enough to make a ‘coaliton wins’ prediction. I respect making a call! Whats the point? You be no less wrong than me later if Rodent wins, and you havent made a punt (Im ALP by 8-10 seats).
Fence sitting scores zero points in the nyaa nyaa stakes!
And an I suggest a technique for tghe nervous nellies, thats employed in the treatment of anxiety disorders?
Decide you wont worry or freak out until you see some *concrete evidence* of your fears materialising.
I dont see a skerick of evidence that the coalition has moved an inch in months.
The Greens shouldn’t be too worried about the HOR this election. If Labor win the LNP will self destruct into factional units and offer the Greens plenty of future HOR opportunities. The only important thing is remove the LNP or face the prospect of a permanent loss of serious opposition competitiveness in future elections. ie Singapore.
Paul K although i agree with you, as i would like the Greens having the balance of power, but when you state you can’t trust Labor with control of the Senate.. could you please when in recent memory, since the 1940’s in fact, has Labor controlled the Senate.. so how can you not trust them.
Sorry, that should be the 7pm ABC News.
Kina (713) You are talking about a realignment of Australian politics which ain’t goin’ happen however much you may wish it.
Agree Lefty E with both propositions. Again would direct people’s attention to the long term trend. There’s the both qualitative and quantitative narrative.
Brown tips preference deals with Labor
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=306762
This will make thins harder for the Government to retain power.
Marky,
My point is I don’t trust either of the main parties with both Houses of Parliament. I’d prefer my Prime Minister’s party to have to stay lean and hungry and have to work hard to get legislation passed. The Senate should be a genuine house of review and not a rubber stamp.
Ok that makes two of us
…. any others willing to step up to the plate? 
:):)
They never preference us anyway…nevertheless we can win without ‘watermellons’ supporting us lol
This is a watermelon…..www.jasonwood.com.au
Kina it is only week 1 of the campaign and already there is serious discussion how the Liberals will self-destruct in the likely event of losing the election. Anyone read Dr Abjorensen article? Here is the link
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/libs_set_to_selfdestruct_if_coalition_fails.htm
Just warms the cockles of my heart!
20% unionists 9% greens. That puts your side a long way behind Glen.
I see we have one of the literate Glens tonight.
cheers,
Alan H
Well I have a confession to make. I will no longer accuse Kevin Rudd of being a John Howard clone. He is far more than that. A capable leader, a quick thinker, a good politician and also a dab hand at being a Steve Fielding clone too!
Kevin Rudd, Wednesday 17th October:
“…What are all the other things that are impacting on a families budget? One is a mortgage or your rental accommodation, both of which have gone through the roof, soaring grocery prices … you have got soaring petrol prices, you have 12 per cent increase in childcare costs and, to cap it all off, you have Mr Howard’s Work Choices legislation which enables penalty rates and over time to be stripped away from working families.”
Now, Steve Fielding, Monday 15th October:
“Australian families are battling skyrocketing petrol and grocery prices and struggling to make ends
meet. Many are paying mortgages while others in the rental trap fear they will never own a home.”
Oh, and Steve Fielding has had these issues core now for his entire tenure as Senator.
Rudd has found his motherlode and he’s mining like hell…
Great Paul k then you will be voting Liberal so as to maintain acheck and balance on the Commonwealth with every Government in danger of being all Labor….
Glen…. a few “lemons” such as Howard and Costello may do better and “nutters” like Downer and Abbott much better…
It must be worrying for the Coalition with the collapse in the National Party vote.
Evening all,
Howards tracking polls must be shit, the way he launched into deliberate over reaction with “wake up to yourself” today re:Rudds advertising is the mark of a desperate campaign strategy.
Well, I do not know who Glen is, but I believe he is being under paid. perhaps, he has signed one of honest John’s AWA and is on a promise of good things in the future.
However, some body close to Howard once said, “John is not into firm commitments ” so I hope that the AWA that Glen has secured is water tight because when judgment day comes and Glen puts out his hand for payment he might just find out, like many of us know, that he has been dealing with the devil himself.
Nay Glen. I’ll only go back to the Libs after they throw out all those Neo Con Facists who think they’re God’s gift to the world. When they move back to their core beliefs and leave the extreme right wing crap behind I’ll consider them again.
LTEP
Greens. Good points here. I have said all year that the flat to declining Greens primary in every poll trend since 2004 is newsworthy but largely ignored. The “anecdotal evidence” is that the Greens are improving their vote because Climate Change is a factor, therefore they will do well.
I don’t see the logic in that. If the media determines that all parties must have a workable position on environmental issues including climate change, then a key point of difference is lost from the Greens.
The only way to regain that ground is to have bigger policies or go further than those more central (Dems, ALP, FFP and LIB respectively, Left through Right). The issue here is that all this can hope to attract are more fundamentalist environmentalists, most of which, you would assume already vote Green. Any others might view such policies, such as the coal-mining fiasco, as unworkable.
Actually, trolling through figures to 2001, it appears to me that the Greens were off their late ’90s peak really, though the implosion of the Dems masked it, with Dems voters seeking refuge in Greens. There aren’t any left now, so this election may well be worse than 2004 for the Greens.
727 I can remember $weetie parading around thinking he was a genius for coming up with the notion that the GST will never rise because one colour will never dominate Australian politics. Now the man is worried about the consequences of his own actions when introducing the tax. It would be hilarious were it not so stupid.
The following comments refer to that excellent site Oz politics The Polls, edited by Bryan Palmer.
From the graph of TTP Results for Governments 1949-2004, it is possible to glean the following;
• In the 23 elections since 1949, the winning party has reached between 49 and 57% of the TPP. Although the ALP has only once slightly exceeded 53%.
• The Menzies era saw the coalition win 9 straight elections. It is certainly arguable that the ALP split and the smaller size (in voters not area) of country and regional/outer suburban electorates was of some advantage to the coalition in this period. The latter bias persists to this day with inner city electorates (which generally speaking are safe ALP) normally having more voters than regional/country seats.
• In the time since the ‘Menzies era’, the coalition and the ALP have both won 7 elections and lost 2 , since 1972, which might be called the ‘modern’ period of Australian politics. Thus neither party can truthfully claim to be the ‘natural party of government’, at least in this ‘modern’ period.
• Menzies won 3 and Howard 1 elections with less than 50% of the TPP, while the ALP has won none with less than 50%, thus confirming the bias in the system which advantages the coalition, mentioned above.
Turning to the two graphs which show Labor’s predicted TPP vote leading up to the
1998, 2001, 2004and now 2007 elections, with data from AC Nielsen and
Newspoll, and disregarding the poll predictions for the 5 or 6 weeks prior to the actual
elections, it is possible to draw the following (no doubt contentious) conclusions;
• In the six months prior to the elections being called in 2001 and 2004 there appears to be a strong trend back towards the coalition, in both the AC Nielsen and Newspoll results.
• The Tampa incident in 2001 gave a significant short term boost to the coalition, lasting several weeks. However the poll results for the ALP appear to have recovered after 4 or 5 weeks, but only back to the pre-existing downward trend. This seems to indicate that without Tampa the coalition would have still won!
• !998 is a bit of an aberration (AC Nielsen graph). Until about 10 weeks before the election Labor looked comfortable, but not so 5-6 weeks before. I’m not sure how long the campaign was in 1998, but if it was short there does not seem to have been much ‘narrowing’, by this stage the trend in Labor TPP was already significantly down, a continuation of which would see a coalition victory. It may be that the coalition was also still enjoying something of the normal ‘honeymoon’ (there have been no single term Federal governments in Australia, since 1949 at least).
• 2007 looks decidedly different. In both the graphs the trend over the last ten months is from about 60% TPP for Labor to around 56% now, and trending towards about 55% by the election.
Of course, anything is possible, however if the immediate medium term past is a reasonable guide to the short term future, and in the absence of a calamity, it seems to me that the probabilities are in favour of a very solid win for the ALP, possibly of landslide proportions.
Prediction ; 55/45 TPP, with Labor holding about 90 seats, at the close of counting
SJP @ 723
Yep, heard him on the wireless. Cockles nicely warmed, but remember that the good Norm is a strange pup, albeit grey these days.
There is going to be a cleansing.
“But suggestions that it may lurch further to the right have been rejected by a number of close observers. “Most of the critics of the Howard Government say that it’s into zealotry now. So, the idea that if the Liberals lose, it will become more zealous overlooks the fact that most of its critics say it’s too zealous now,” commentator and Liberal historian Gerard Henderson said.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061702.htm
The libs lost the election in NSW because of their far right wing religous extremism zealotry, and it is throughtout the branches.
A narrow win by labor will see the zealots of the right maintain control of the libs, the only way to fix the liberal party is a cleanout, and many realise this including the libs expelled or disenfranchised by their own party.
A good thorough cleanout will give them a chance to rebuild, reform and perhaps gain government in NSW at the next election and be competitive federally in six years.
Until they reform they will be unelectable.
RBA ‘too zealous’ about combating inflation:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2062423.htm
RBA ‘too zealous’ about combating inflation:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2062423.htm
“If inflation’s going to go from 3 to 6 per cent or 7 per cent then I’m with them all the way, but we’re not really talking about that at the moment,” he said”.
Julie @ Post 720
I too will vote Labor in HoR and Greens in the Senate. So that is 3 of us
I don’t know that it’s fair to say the system is biased or at least it’s not deliberately so. The fact is that Labor voters generally tend to concentrate in City and Industrial areas whereas Coalition voters generally tend to be more dispersed. Thus it’s not uncommon for a lot of Labor votes to be locked up in safe seats. Of coarse this is generalising and there are always exceptions.
I tend to agree with you Captain Gerrymander, i can’t see the Greens improving significantly, i think though they will hold their own and have similar result to 2004.
Climate change will be a very big issue in the years ahead… If one looks around this country at the moment water is running out in regional areas.. Many of our major towns are on stage 3 or 4 restrictions and summer is encroaching.. what effect will water be when it runs out in these towns.. In places such as Mildura people’s businesses are dying due to lack of water.. Will country people start moving to areas where their is water, putting pressure upon employment levels and service needs…
In the immediate years major problems confront this country due to climate change and the Greens to me are the only party which is looking at it seriously… Labor seems to think that you can’t do something unless it doesn’t overly affect the economy.
If you look at climate change it is a “sleeper” because action only occurs when it will have an effect… thus it is like anything.. thus an example fix a road when many people get killed on it…
Unfortunately climate change action is required now..
As i have previously said carbon dioxide doesn’t dissappear it sits in atmosphere and can do so for up to eighty years so if any changes are made now it will continue to sit their for another eighty years and beyond.. and that is just the carbon emissions we have produced because as we produce more,, more and more goes into the atmosphere and heats up the planet… hate to say it but this should be the main issue.. not taxes, not the economy but climate change.
I think it’s fair to say that the +/- 10% enrolment rule works in favour of the coalition , not necessarily deliberately. However it seems a bit anachronistic in this age of essentially instant communication.
[Why in the hell did Costello single out Bill shorten and Greg Combet? They must surely be two of the best liked people in the country.] 620
I think Costello’s really lost it, assuming he ever had it to begin with. That was silly enough, as was his interest rate claims, which he couldn’t justify.
He climaxed a pretty dreadful day by trying to blacken Gillard about her 1984 student union days with the Socialist Alliance, which according to Tip amounts to communist membership. 1984? 23 years back? Wow! One of our earlier trolls, Rupert, was always rabbiting on about that. Maybe his day job is as an adviser to Costello.
Glen, good to see you back. I thought ESJ must have been kidding about your special assignment in Brisbane wearing a chicken suit. You’re a lot more fun than Candles.
Some good news out of Leichhardt for Labor with a poll
showing Labor candidate Jim Turnour’s vote of 44 to 37 the libs Charlie McKillop
Plus some bad news for the nationals candidate with his sexist comments
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=305446§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
Worstschoices and the ‘away with fairys test”
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/six-months-on-and-the-fairness-test-remains-as-elusive-as-ever/1070628.html
“If the Howard Government retains power after the election, it may be tempted to abolish the fairness test, citing the extra cost to employers and bureaucracy as the excuse.”
You have been warned!!!
That a swing of 13% to labor from 2004
Rudd pledges ‘balanced’ tax response”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600616-601,00.html
Candidate rebuked over sexist comments
Wednesday Oct 17 19:01 AEST
Nationals leader Mark Vaile has been forced to admonish one of his own candidates for suggesting far north Queensland is no place for a woman.
.
.
Poor old Nationals. It’s hard to fight a modern campaign when your heart and mind are in the 16th century.
hey Gary Bruce,
do you work over at ‘the Age’?
Hi Been There,
Agree strongly with the point around the so-called “tampa election”.
There is no way the 2001 result was driven by tampa. It has to have been the twin towers that drove the result,
the characterisation of 2001 as the tampa election is just another left leaning attempt to re-write history
Oh no. The leftie conspirators are at it again. Shock. Horror. What next? Something about Unions taking over the world maybe?
AM- better to scrap the fringe benefits tax on company car use which the rich lap up and use the proceeds to fight climate change.. with measures towards public transport like tax deductions for using transport, not that would be a measured response and a visionary way forward… will not happen has not got the guts…
The whole negative trade unionist thing:
My problem with this campaign is that a majority of under 35’s would not get this whole trade union paranoia.
Where does this paranoia come from, for someone who is 23 and thinks, so what if they are trade unionists. If they can do the job, they’ll be fine.
#742
“We’ll all be rooned said Hanrahan”
Apologies to Henry Lawson.
Climate changes all the time, ‘Droughts and flooding rains” etc.
Goebells once said “if you repeat a lie often enough everybody will believe it’
If there is any scientific proof that carbon dioxide leads to significant warming( as compared to computer-generated predictions for the year 2100 which can’t be proved or disproved in any current lifetime, and which are so dire that a major response seems reasonable) I for one would like to see it!! I don’t believe such scientific proof exists but if it does bring it on, I’m open to being convinced. Just a refereence will do, we certainly don’t want to clog up this site with an environmental debate.
‘
Please, no off-topic debate about the reality or otherwise of climate change.
William Bowe
http://www.pollbludger.com
Gotta post this important new poll here, William, as thread seems front runner.
Conducted a highly scientific, random phone survey of one person, my 21 year old niece, an hour before she would have seen any TV news.
Questions and findings, slightly paraphrased, for the sake of economy.
What is a communist? Um, wouldn’t have known, but Uncle J was explaining it recently…North Korea , everyone gets paid the same. What do you think about that? That is bad. (CW thinks her brother J is a nut case, anyway. Sorry, CW means he’s biased).
Who is Julia Gillard? Oh, the redhead. Looks like country singer, Reba. Does that matter? No, doesn’t matter. If you thought Julia was a communist, would it influence your vote? Probably not. What Party does Julia belong to? I think Labor, have seen her next to Kevin Rudd.
Is China a communist or democratic country? I think communist from what Uncle J said.
Does Australia sell uranium to China? Don’t think they do or are. Would that be good or bad? Bad, because communists are bad.
Is Russia a communist or democratic country? I think, were. Does Australia sell uranium to Russia? Not sure.
What if I told you Australia is going to sell uranium to Russia and that Russia is pretty well communist anyway? Should Australia sell uranium to Russia? Well….not sure what uranium is for. What if I told you it could be used for nuclear weapons? Bad!
Who are you voting for? Oooh, that’s personal…well, Labor.
Why? Well Mum votes Labor. I don’t like John Howard. Because of the GST. (Niece goes on to explain, but CW can’t quite fathom the reason).
Does Work Choices have any influence on your vote? No.
Do you prefer Kevin Rudd or John Howard? Kevin Rudd. Why? Dunno… fresh faced, Australia’s in need of a change. Why do you say that? From polls and the papers. Don’t know, most young people don’t know much about it, mostly young people don’t like John Howard. He doesn’t go on Rove. Rove shows that John Howard is a dork. Flappy track pants (etc).
Are you on an AWA? Is that an err…Australian Work Place Agreement? Yes. Not sure if I am.
Explanation by CW.
Oh yeah, but started in work place three years ago. Niece concludes she is probably not on an AWA.
But volunteers that she is on her original contract of three years ago, despite a substantial uplift in level of responsibility, at a DROP of $1.00 in her overall wage and since a 35 cent or so per hour age based only pay rise. That she is trying to work up “the guts†to ask for a pay rise.
That she only recently was eligible for overtime (subject to), after more than a year with this new responsibility. Which cost her any opportunity for penalty rates anyway.
Thinks her contract doesn’t ALLOW her to JOIN a Union. But basically if she didn’t sign, didn’t get the job.
Says newer employees are having to sign their rights away (her exact words). That an HR person is recently on deck to review all the contracts.
Do you think that is likely to get anyone a better deal? No.
Do you think you would get a better deal at work under Labor? Yes. Why? I saw Kevin Rudd’s ad and he said it would make a difference. (Explicates). Have you looked at Labor’s Fair Work policy? No.
Will the proposed Howard tax cuts influence your vote? Tax cuts? More explanation by CW. Was in all the papers. Oh, I don’t read the back pages. Front pages, dear. No idea, only saw Ben Cousins, no T shirt, etc. Only pay $x tax anyway.
CW:Thank you for participating in this survey.
Niece: My pleasure, will read up about so I can give better answers next time. Where will this be on the Internet?
CW: Will email you a copy of the blog.
PS Great tooing and froing among family members checking AEC status, warnings to those who ahem.
And Garrett pledges to have a go at Cane Toads: Should win him some kudos in QLD even if his names stinks in Tassie now among the tree huggers.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2062323.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Paul K,
If the percentage of unionists in federal cabinet was more than 70%, then I’d suggest two things:
1) Lefties have taken over the government
2) an impartial look at the facts would support 1) above.
That’s just me though, looking at the facts etc
So Been There the arctic isn’t melting rapidly and islands in the pacific are not being inundated… what next.. you dill.. . Once the arctic melts Been There temperatures will increase much more.. and why because ice reflects the heat of the sun.. but i suppose it is caused by the aligning of the planets and sun moving closer to the earth.. any other explanations… please tell me.. So car pollution and deadly emissions from power stations are good for us then?
It is people like yourself which in the end will result in the most life on earth dissappearing..
Ahem …
Mr Squiggle 751
I think the important point about Tampa is not that it did or didn’t cost the ALP the election, rather that the effect was so short term. Same with the current ‘Fistful of Dollars’ from Howard/Costello.It didn’t last in the 1980’s, and it won’t last this time. But Howard and co don’t seem to learn that shock effects are essentially short term. Rudd has and consequently has it all over them.
The first ALP fast response counter adverstisment was quite good. However, I really do hope that precious Kevin keeps this stuff up. If he does it any more it will really start to look as though his glass jaw is about to break. Him personally responding to every attack ad is not a good look.
Mr Squiggle,
The Cold War is over. Go back to the 19th century if you want to start a class war. No one outside the Liberal Party gives a fig about this Unionists under the bed campaign. It hasn’t swayed the voters and never will. I don’t know what you expect to gain by pedaling it here. It’s a non issue. Might as well argue that dinosaurs will rule the world again one day.
Marky Marky.
Not the place for me to give chapter and verse about how wrong I Believe you are and how easily swayed you seem to be by the loud voices crying that the sky is falling without providing any supportable evidence. Happy to debate you on another blog any time.
Enough is enough just a comment..
Unionists under the bed again..
Labors’ response should be that unions have provided better working conditions for people- sick days, holidays, safer workplaces, public holiday pay and so on… but instead it is a scare tactic.. how about getting on the front foot and stating what they do.. time to remind the electorate.. and remind the electorate about who created medicare, pharmecital scheme and superannuation.. a postive ad to remind the electorate.. things which the coalition never touched and another thing what has coalition done regarding working conditions since being in office simple answer nothing..
Been There,
How are things at the Flat Earth society these days?
Everybody seems to be ignoring the Dlp chances in the Senate. They are running candidates in all states, and have a chance of Senate seats in Vic. and Tassie. They have a chance to pick up Harridines voters in Tassie. In Vic they got more votes than FF at last election. DLP voters are rusted on, and their vote will increase from last time because this time they are running a national campaign, so will be considered as more crediable, and worthy of a vote. They were ignored by all parties and commentators at the recent Victorian election, but succeded in getting a member Peter Kavanagh elected to the upper House, and another who was beaten in a recount. Other Parties ignore the DLP at their own peril. The preferences of other Parties will be decisive, but nearly all other Parties will preference against the Greens in most states. The CDP and FF will swap preferences with the DLP, and whichever of these Parties receives the larger vote will have an excelllent chance of being lected to the Senate, and maybe holding the balance of power
Crikey at 747 said:
“Why do you say that? From polls and the papers”
Welcome to Crosby Textor ‘Win Expectations’ 101.
Are not 6 of the highest 8 standards of living in countries with the highest union membership? Who would you be scared to meet on a dark night – a union boss or a Brethren boss?
Paul K,
Sounds like the typical response of someone with nothing to say except denigrating rhetoric.
Actually I rather expected some intelligent comment on my original post which was almost entirely about psephological issues.
I certainly won’t be responding any further to inane comments like your last.
Agree the DLP may be a force.. depends on the preferences, thus if Labor preferences them before the Greens which is likely in Tassie and perhaps Victoria… and the DLP will be very supportive of Labors’ industrial relations changes.
Paul K, your 100% right it is a non issue. The only ones afraid of unions, or talking about unions, are rusted on libs as it is merely an ideological position. The far right frightened me off to the safety of unions LOL.
A-C, he doesn’t have to do it again, the point has been well and truly made and any further anti-union ads will merely reinforce it.
Been There, you are one of those that when the sky does fall on your head will complain that someone should have prevented it LOL.
I also disagree with those who believe the Green vote will decrease. Many are willing to switch to Labor in HoR but look to the safety of Greens in the senate to make it a proper house of review.
Been There (735) Not totally sure of this but I think Hawke won one of his four victories with a 2pp less than 50%. Can’t check it at the moment.
I am not suggesting it will fall, i think they will hold their own similar result to 2004. The Greens like in the Victorian recent elections are hamstrung by most parties preferencing against them and a focus to narrowly on policies which really don’t need commenting on like drugs..
The Greens will also get no help from our right wing media with the Murdoch press again probably emotionally going overboard with scare tactics on leftist marxist rubbish..
Been There,
To receive an intelligent comment you need to start with an intelligent point rather than comparing environmentalists to Nazies. ” Goebells once said…” is not an intelligent argument, it’s just another gutless insult.
If John Howards says we are pointing out the facts on Union members in as candidates, why doesn’t Labor point out the facts and tell people what unions have done for people…
Crikey Whitey (757) – I enjoyed that, even if no-one else did. Thanks for sharing! It’s nice to get a detailed phone poll result instead of those ones that Gary Morgan trots out.
My own experience today at work during morning tea break. Was with four other colleagues of uncertain voting intention. Mentioned the election, and the “Porkometer” as it was printed in the SMH that I was reading at the time. Mentioned the $34b tax cuts.
Immediate reactions from all four colleagues was of the order of “why wasn’t this spent on hospitals or water” and “we don’t *need* tax cuts” and so on.
All four of my colleagues live in the seat of Macquarie, unlike yours truly, who lives in Werriwa.
Confirms what most people have been saying. Monday’s announcement was another dead cat.
Agreed Marky, after all the DLP are a Labour Party.
Their record of voting in the Victorian Upper House favours the Labour Party by a large margin.
So you would expect the ALP to give their preferences to the DLP before the Greens.
So the issue is will DLP be able to get more votes than FF like they did last time.
Will FF gain votes because they have Steve Fielding in the Senate ?
I guess it’s to be expected but I’m amazed at the way commentators will make so much out of everything now there’s an election campaign underway. This whole ‘winning the day’ thing is bollocks – unless there’s a huge gaffe, nothing anyone has said this opening few days is going to have any meaningful impact on the day that matters, including, I suspect, the 34bn tax splash. This is theatre for us rusted-ons and politics junkies, and red-meat for the troops. So chill out, everyone.
Point out the facts Labor and state what workchoices has done to working families conditions….
Darn 774,
You might be right,however it would only have been 49.8 or 49.9%. Must have targetted the marginals very well.
Liberal Lawyers 70% and Labor Union Bosses 60%
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/day-three-are-70-per-cent-of-labors.html
Rudd defended Combet,Shorten and others in an interview yesterday,but I’m with you on this,run some ads to counter the negative.
Good article on why Howard and Costello just don’t get it and sums up a lot of ex libs real gripes;
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/putting-rent-on-selfinterest/2007/10/16/1192300769298.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Actually what would be good is to show Shorten and Combet in an ad -a) Shorten at the mine in Tassie helping working people and b) Combet helping asbestos victims… and then state do we need these people in parliament, people helping working people obtain better lives Mr Howard.. a postive ad with spin…
And also that Shorten has an M.B.A. and knows more about how businesses function because he was also a unionist.
The anti-union arguments are lame. It is just the standard issue thing for the Liberals to do, propose tax cuts based on rubbery figures that would be killed off by a U.S. recession, and mount a scare campaign against unions.
The Liberals are running the ACME Liberal campaign. They are using the same material they used at the 1972 election.
I conducted one of my own completely non-scientific surveys today, just like CW, although my bellwether is a middle-aged man in the seat of Mitchell – of all places. He was mightily chuffed at the sound of such supposedly large tax cuts but somewhat disconcerted that they will take three years to kick in in full and won’t start until next July, under the proviso of course that Johnny and friends are returned. He didn’t actually pick up this bit of detail in the announcement. I mentioned that he’d once bitched to me about how nurses and teachers and plods are paid so badly and how money should be spent on public services, and how polls consistently say people want the money put into services rather than tax cuts, but true to form he asked why we couldn’t do both.
Needless to say he was reassured by Johnny’s announcement and will be voting accordingly. He was a bit thrown by the opinion polls a month ago but reckons his man is in now.
Granted, a Mitchell voter is not high on the priority list, but those waverers who might have chucked a donkey are, in the short term at least, back in Johnny’s corner.
Politics isn’t very difficult, is it?
Page and a half of letters in the local rag bagging Gary Hardgrave for his comments on the Sudanese…one letter in semi-support. Plus an article with the consensus that the Libs won’t even bother defending Moreton.
No surprises for regular posters, but fun to read it in the local news all the same.
“Actually what would be good is to show Shorten and Combet in an ad -a) Shorten at the mine in Tassie helping working people and b) Combet helping asbestos victims…”
And then we can have Kevin wet nursing the children of indigenous communities. Julia can apply ointment to the feat of lepers.
Been There (742)
“We’ll all be rooned said Hanrahanâ€
No apologies to Henry Lawson are needed. “Said Hanrahan” was written by “John O’Brien”, whose real name was Fr Patrick Hartigan.
Chaser mock PM, he goads Rudd:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22601336-5001021,00.html
Goanna (768 and 779),
I doubt that the DLP will pick up a Senate seat, though the ALP would prefer not to have to rely on the Greens and will have no difficulty in preferencing it if it is in the ALP’ interest, which it would be if the DLP preferences the ALP in seats like, let me guess, McMillan. However, Family First will outpoll the DLP in the Senate, and for the ALP surplus to then put the DLP ahead of FF would require a very specific result: the ALP surplus has to be less than the DLP’s vote, but enough to propel the DLP ahead of FF; e.g., ALP 44.9 (giving a surplus of 2), DLP 2.1, FF 4. Then the Liberal vote has to be 36.6 (giving a surplus of
to put the DLP ahead of the Greens. The Liberal vote might be low, but not that low. Obviously, micro-parties preferencing the DLP can push it ahead of the pack, as in Western Victoria. In any case, the ALP may regard preferences from FF as more useful to it.
FF has a far more extensive organisation than the DLP has. As I have posted before, the FF worker at the state election booth I was on last year said that 500 or 600 of his 800-member congregation had volunteered to help in the election. I doubt that the DLP would have that many activists in the whole state.
There is a more extensive discussion of the Senate at:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/585#comments
Howard tonight complained about cigarette smokers being treated like criminals.
Sounds like failed liberal candidate David Elliott of the Hotels Association has been in his ear about the drop in poker machine revenue from bans on smoking indoors.
Me, I’m a smoker of 27 years, tried Zyban, patches, gum cold turkey, no luck. Cigs are the one of most addidicative drugs around,even more addictave than herion, kill about 12,000 people per year and cost the health system billions.
Yet not a mention of tobacco in libs tough on drugs policy booklet mailed to every household at taxpayers expense.
When I started smoking about 27 years ago the cig companies were finding new ways to make them more addidictive, vapourising the nicotine so it hit the brain faster and harder.
I’d would like to see the government take on the tobacco companies for a settlement like they did in the USA.
Surely the donations they get from the tobacco companies and hotels assocaiation aren’t holding them back?
Howard is on a loser if he thinks he can win votes from smokers, most want to give them up.
Derek at post 701 refers to the nodding head in the background.
I’d noticed this myself in interview by pollies of all stripes.
They all seem to do it: Get a couple of Gofers to stand in the background and sagely nod their heads while The Great Candidate speaks his or her words of wisdom.
It must be some deep psychological thing.
It might be something to do with a “look, someone is listening to him” signal. Or perhaps it’s a subliminal Group-Think thing: “We agree with Bozo here, so you should too”.
Whatever.
It can be quite mesmerising.
I can’t help looking for a twitch or two or perhaps a raised eyebrow when Whoever-It-Is-That-Speaks comes out with the inevitable porky or dodges a question.
In order to prevent obsessive-compulsives like me minutely scrutinizing the Nodding Head for any sign of error, perhaps all parties should adopt the practice of having life-sized cardboard cut-out figures in the background whenever their Great Candidate speaks.
These could, of course, be fitted with those sprung nodding heads you used to sometimes see on little animal dolls in the rear window shelves of cars, so that the figures’ heads would just naturally nod away with the breeze throughout the Great One’s speech.
Just a thought.
Shakespeare said , “first kill all the lawyers”. There goes 70% of the front bench!
Yet Howard had earlier said he was feeling sorry about Ben Cousins and then saying all drugs are bad.
Hypocrite.
The health lobby should crucify him with a million statistics and deaths plus 2nd smoking deaths and sickness. Smoking is one thing that if everyone stopped would save a huge amount of money in hospital and medical costs…eventually.
Costello left flummoxed as attack ads begin:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22602259-5006301,00.html
“TREASURER Peter Costello was lost for words today when asked to explain his party website’s prediction of the amount interest rates would go up under Labor.
The Liberal website said that under a Labor government people could expect to pay $3276 per year extra on their mortgage, but Mr Costello didn’t know why.
Quoting from a 2007 Econtech report, the website said Labor’s industrial relations policy would push interest rates 1.4 per cent higher than they are today.
“This means working families will have to pay an extra $273 every month on their mortgage repayments,” it said.
But asked by a journalist to explain such figuring, Mr Costello didn’t have an answer.
“I would have to go and look at what’s on the website, and if I do I’ll give you the information,” Mr Costello said.
Asked again how the Government could say that mortgages were going up by such an exact figure, Mr Costello said: “You have asked me to have a look at it and see how it adds up. I’ll have a look at it and see how it adds up.”
Earlier this week, Prime Minister John Howard could not correctly answer what the Reserve Bank of Australia’s current cash rate is, saying it was 6.25 per cent when it is 6.5 per cent”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7vLu63tb1E
More weird! What of the War on Drugs?
Fames J, no prizes for being second.
Thanks Chris Curtis, (I always enjoy your indepth analysis)
You clarified the chances of the DLP, acknowledging that the have a chance of picking up a seat if the circumstances of the preferences are right.
I wonder what effect the publicity about the Exclusive Bretheren will have on the Family First vote, if any?
Note Howard is watching Rudd’s ad via Windows Media Player – it looks like it was recorded in his office- If it’s Parliament House then J-Ho may be in deep doo doo
oh and there is no authorisation at the end – another Electoral Act breach as well
Goanna
but what will be the effect on catholic/anglican voters the publicity about the Exclusive Bretheren will have ?
Voters have supported Labor in every State and territory. What makes the Libs think that these latest union bashing ads will make any difference? It shows a lack of creativity and imagination. From it’s foundation in 1945, the Liberal Party’s default position has been union bashing. Everything old is new again.
Frank Calabrese writes “oh and there is no authorisation at the end – another Electoral Act breach as well”
Ouch. I can feel an AEC complaint coming on.
Been There at 8.39… a nice summary of Mr Palmer’s compelling graphs. I think the regulars here have been warming their hands at Bryan’s hearth for quite a while, hence the lack of replies. But it’s worth noting all that again in these early days of nervous nelliedom – the graphs are going to have such a ridiculous spike in them if Howard pulls it off on 24/11 that we will be able to declare opinion polling dead and buried. All that will matter in future is a head-kicking campaign and tax cuts. But I don’t think that will happen. Nor do you, clearly.
I think the 1990 election was won by the ALP onslightly less than 50%TPP, but I’ll try to check that.
Re your comments at 9.10 on the Subject That Must Not Be Named, here’s a start for your reading…
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm#S1
The spectroscopic work started in the 1940s. It’s all about infrared absorbtion. The arguments are about planetary scale feedback systems… but the evidence is mounting. Suggest you subscribe to a pop journal like New Scientist – they summarise the findings from time to time. References to Goebbels in this context are very insulting to scientists. (Sorry William)
Julia Gillard on lateline and Tony Jones spends half the interview asking about socialist forum… Time to turn it over- pathetic nonsense…
Julia now getting a grilling over the debate.
Julia said we want 3 debates.
whoever posted that link to costellos membership of the ALP when younger could you please repost it
i want to send it to a few journos -maybe one of the ponces could ask costello
“pot kettle black”
just a thought
Our media are so 2nd rate.
I travel for work quite a bit, and am always stunned to read investigative journalism, and to note the amazing media diversity in most other democracies.
Thankfully we have Ozblogistan, or Id go bonkers.
With some notable exceptions, most of our 4th estate are just 2nd rate hacks, and press-release editors, completely dependent on being in the loop – and utterly compromised.
‘Insiders’ says it all.
yep but will the biased bunch run with it…
gusface #812
I bookmarked it just for this occasion
her he is
Scotty 778
Good fun!
Keep up the surveys; talk back opinion etc is on your and the side of your colleagues.
Marktwain 788
No disrepect to your middle aged man, perhaps he needs some financial help in the hearing or vision areas. Assure him assistance will not come from you know who.
If all else fails, conduct a broader poll.
Politics is very difficult, isn’t it?
Oh dear very poor performance by J “MG Tm” G on Lateline.
Julia is a conservative and in fact Medicare Gold was a conservative policy. Lol
Looks like Labcest is going to cost Labor big time. I can see the outrage now – its not 70% of the shadow cabinet, in fact its only 67%. Not going to play well is it?
TonyJones was very good too – nailed it on the “struggle” going on over tax cuts vs spending. Our J MG Tm G is a conservative who doesnt like spending, what a giggle.
Wonder what effect the Exclusive report will have on all right wing parties, especially Church based ones like CDP and FF ect
Actually Left E compromised says it all.. and Insiders a show with a right wing looney on it every week with two middle of road journos’ and where is the left wing person.. balance on bias ABC no..
But you are right the media here are pathetic. The inconsistencies, half truths and made up stories and focus on celebrities and the royal family- an unmitigated brainless bunch of dills these newsmakers..
Credible journos.. to me only Kerry O’Brien, Monica Attard, John Faine and to a degree Laurie Oakes… Also like Alan Ramsay… and George Fungus- Negus…
Tony Jones has lowered himself in the last year..
The rest are in it for the money…
Please ABC get rid of Lindy Burns… Hopeless to much of the obvious for me and inane questions…
Oh and i don’t mind Tiggy Fullarton and Geoff Masters…
Edward,
Yes I’m sure tonight’s Lateline will win Howard millions of votes as it was such riveting TV that the whole nation was probably watching.
Oh, this is weird, recursive… on and on… man… fractal weird – gimme some of that stuff Ben is on!! Like, the libs have an ad – featuring an ad labor has and labor has an ad, featuring the lib ad, and the libs have an ad, featuring the labor ad, featuring the lib ad… and labor have an ad, featuring the lib ad, featuring the labor ad… featuring the… Ah! my brain explodes!
Edward, we know you disagree with her politics.
What led you to believe she performed poorly?
She rates as best performed of the campaign so far in this house.
It’s no surprise that the LP gets their knickers in a twist over her – she has no direct opponent at this stage.
I’m a bit late on and haven’t read all the posts yet. Can’t keep up.
Has anyone done this poll on the Govt Gazette at all.
http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=13&lang=en
Now what did we learn from Lateline tonight?
Do any research for that interview Tony Jones…
How about concentrating on the policies…
Onimod , coz
1) Labor has no answer on the Labcest problem – its true and she knows it. They dare not dispute the 70% figure but its likely to stick. Its absolute poison for Labor like the faceless men under Whitlam. You might think it doesnt matter now but it will sink in after 6 weeks.
2) Tax – they clearly dont know what they are about. T Jones picked it the debate is going on now as to what they do.
3) Me too is catching up with them. Julia aint a conservative but she is stuck with the straitjacket theyve fitted themselves up with hence her efforts to squirm around Medicare Gold. Clearly they would like to spend the money on programs but there too gutless to do that because they fear being labelled “spendthrifts”
Occasionally in politics you have to be prepared to say this is what we believe and we’ll stand and fall on it. Its ok to say we are left wing and we are not conservatives, especially when you have a 12% lead – they need to show some courage of conviction. There’s no soul left in this group – why dont they just get the charade over with and match the tax cuts or near enough.
Does anyone have the photo of Peter Costello after being smashed in his uni days
I think we also need a video of Bob Brown turning off a video of Howard who is turning off a video of Rudd who is turning off a video about the unions.
Maybe one with all the political players turning each other off? The poor old Exclusive Bretheren will miss out though…
Paul K, can I assume from your comments at # 708 & # 719 that in the Senate you voted for someone else besides Labor (assuming that you voted Labor in the H of R) previously
If so you and those like you have contributed to the situation we currently have in the Senate i.e. a Coalition majority in the senate.
I have no idea why he needed to ask the question about the debate 4 times.
Of course Rudd will be at the debate, it’s not even worth asking the question.
Labcest has to be the lamest neologism I’ve ever come across. You’re not a rightard, Edward, you should abandon such inelegant and clumsy language.
I thought tonight’s Lateline was boring and trivial. Some pretty silly questions about things which it was pretty obvious Julia was never going to give straight answers to. Labor is not going to telegraph their punches by telling Lateline what sort of tactics they are going to use, so why carry on with questions about things she was never going to answer. I got bored after a few minutes.
Edward,
You better check with the Senator’s office. You haven’t used the word ‘unions’ in either of the last two posts and isn’t that against party rules.
Tony Jones has become a pathetic parody of a decent interviewer. Someone should remind him that constantly interrupting the interviewee is not hard hitting or incisive, but just plain rude.
It’s also clear that he is much more lenient when it comes to Downer, orther government ministers.
I can remember when Lateline was worth watching. Now it is little more obessesed with trivia, especially when it comes to Australian politics.
BTW, does anyone know of the convention regarding the naming of “ministers” during the caretaker period? Are they still officially “Minister for ……….” I would have thought not, but who knows.
John Rocket,
He has to use Labcrest according to the incentivation rules.
Most people on the radio talkbacks are stating that taxcuts are a waste and would much rather spending instead of tax cuts on health, education and climate change and this is what Labor should do.
Edward it is obvious that you must be one of those wealthy benefactors of the massive tax cuts at the higher level and don’t care about the crumbs people at the bottom get…
And Edward who created Medicare and the Pharmesetical Benefits Scheme.. On health the Coalition has never done a thing but you wouldn’t know with your private health insurance card…
Julia had a good hair night on Lateline. A woman in charge. Did like the mental image of Howard – alone – debating the worm.
Scorpio 823, See 10,39 and 40 at Possums Pollytics, the Long View, for one. There is a bit of stuff above you somewhere.
hossen
emails away!
cheers
Paul K,
I think your confused.
Mr Rocket
It is inelegant but it is such an ugly condition crippling the Labor party that Labcest is an appropriate word for summary purposes.
Marky Mark
Search your feelings you know this to be true thine true enemy (as a Green) is the Labor Party.
Ed
I’m not trying to get an argument going; I’ll just illustrate an alternative view – there’s no need to reply. I’ve considered your view – here’s mine:
1. I hold no abhorrence for the union association. I’ve got links to the construction industry, so I’ve seen the worst. The worst the unions have got are like bad bosses in any workplace – they’re useful for a while, but they never last – divisiveness never leads to ultimate power. I’m more than happy to be represented as an Australian by the likes of Combet and Shorten.
2. I wouldn’t know what to do at the moment either – why not nut it out until you’re sure. I believe I heard that Access Economics is advising? Tactically – it’s the wrong time now anyway – much better delivered in the week 3 speet spot me thinks.
3. Sure – she’s got a skeleton, but anyone other than the avid watcher doesn’t remember the slightest detail from Medicare Gold. It might be ammo in the parliament, but it has little relevance to the public. What was relevant was that she didn’t divert from the message.
I actually think she’s a better performer than Kevin, and we all know what the electorate thinks he’ll be doing in December.
As I said – I’m not trying to stimulate a debate on this – I’m interested in the clearly different message disseminated to each of us. Clearly she’s not swaying either of us. We just need to find some true blue swingers to give us their response now.
Retreat from the field, Edward, don’t persist with the Labcest! Lest Libcest be introduced as well… oh the humanity!
Scorpio 823, don’t want to be anything but I use Firefox. If you do, on this or any forum, click on Edit, Find in this page, and type a search word in the Find area at screen bottom. Click highlight all and scroll. Most useful for finding stuff.
Money problems for the Republicans:
.
.
Big Donors Staying Away From GOP Candidates
Even Bush ‘Rangers’ Are Staying Away
By Chris Cillizza and Matthew Mosk
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, October 17, 2007; A01
More than a third of the top fundraisers who helped elect George W. Bush president remain on the sidelines in 2008, contributing to a gaping financial disparity between the GOP candidates and their Democratic counterparts.
Scores of Bush Pioneers and Rangers are not working for any Republican candidate, citing discontent with the war in Iraq, anger at the performance of Republicans in Congress and a general lack of enthusiasm. More than two dozen have actually made contributions to Democrats.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/16/AR2007101602294_pf.html
Ohh look what we have here… Libs back to the smear and fear campaign, no surprises there.
Edward StJohn… i’ll let you in on a little secret…. don’t tell anyone okay… the Labor party was started by the unions and has been a representation for the unions ever since.
SHHH!! Don’t tell anyone mate… don’t want you Lib voters getting too educated on the subject, you might have a brain aneurysm from excessive usage.
Edward (825)
You seem to be losing your patience over Labor’s awaited tax cuts. Chill out my friend. Kevin Rudd will provide the Australian people with all they need to know according to his own timetable, not your’s or anyone else’s.
Howard obviously thought he could force Labor’s hand with his first day announcement, but he was sadly mistaken. He was the one who decided he wanted a long campaign and now HE can sit down and decide how he is going to fill in the rest of it. Rudd has his own game plan – as he has had all year – and I have no doubt he will stick to it.
When you’re feeling nervous, oh nellies – and I’m thinking of you Lose the Election Please (though I can’t work out to whom that is directed towards – not everyone can lose… surely!) – just ask yourself, would your prefer to be Team Howtello (see, we can all do it Edward!) or Team Rudd? I quite like the position Labor is in at the moment, wouldn’t trade it with the Coalition for a second!
LaborVoter Says:
October 17th, 2007 at 11:45 pm
Ohh look what we have here… Libs back to the smear and fear campaign, no surprises there.
Edward StJohn… i’ll let you in on a little secret…. don’t tell anyone okay… the Labor party was started by the unions and has been a representation for the unions ever since.
SHHH!! Don’t tell anyone mate… don’t want you Lib voters getting too educated on the subject, you might have a brain aneurysm from excessive usage.
If that’s all true Laborvoter why wont your own leader defend unions?
Fred Hollows was an ex-communist. There you go Peter you have a real red there. Mr Costello should start condemning the late Fred.
Howard is taking us into a world of a type that bought about a need for unions. Does he think he can create a vast working poor and that history won’t repeat itself? Australia has for a hundred years been developing a culture of fairness and a fair go only to have Howard transform it into a fair go for big-business only. Tinged with racism, intolerance, xenophobia and fearfullness. This is the way of hard right-wing parties and is how they manipulate, control and maintain power.
His plan is to destroy the power and resource base of the Labor party, make it uncompetitive and search for a perpetual LNP government. I believe Karl Rove had similar such visions until Iraq went sour.
Darn,
If Labor’s polling starts heading south I am sure the tax policy will be out quick smart.
Anyway it works well for JWH if he doesnt come out with it – means the discussion is all about tax and not WorkChoices.
Okay, off to bed, good night to you paul k and of course, sweet dreams Edward!
Yeah, Howard’s got Rudd right where he wants him: annoying the punters daily with the same irritating routine, demanding a policy the punters are in no hurry to see, for tax cuts they’re not convinced they want; to match other future cuts they’ve already forgotten about, like the last lot which prodced zero electoral bounce.
And now he’s got very little dough to blow.
Brilliant! A tour de force-slash-masterclass from Team Rodent.
None of the discussion has been about tax, ESJ. As far as I can see it’s sunk off the radar in 36 hours. Except for the bleating from the right ‘where’s his tax policy?’ All of which is reminiscent of ‘when will Howard call the election for Chrissake?’ And equally as pointless.
That’s a big IF Edward. (848). My guess is that Labor’s support will hold up very well throughout the campaign and it will be the Libs who will be panicking (or should I say panicking even more). Time will tell.
And where’s Rodent’s climate policy? I demand it yesterday!
853: As a sceptic he is allowed extra time.
Sunday night’s newspoll will be the most interesting of the year. So far.
‘Night all.
750 kelly, I don’t work at The Age, why do you ask?
Just spotted a Government add Sydney CH10, for free vacine for cervical cancer, never seen them before.
Someone was asking if Gov adds were still on.
836
Crikey Whitey Says:
Yeah, thanks for that. I had a look and though it was just the same old, same old to provide the figures for Shannahan to get off on.
No.1 Do you think the country is heading in the right direction. WTF.
I’ll probably do it though just to see what they are angling for.
Yes, actually.The later day saint should visit the earlier blogs on this forum, rather than wasting anyone’s time or energy on re examining this now ancient tax story.
With Howard and Co in this much trouble, I think you will find that all agreements and conventions/rules etc will go out the window.
It’s survival time at all costs. Look out from here on for the mother of all gutter tactic elections. Labor are going to have be on their toes and right up to the mark to hold their line.
More fun, Scorpio. Do it!
Crikey Whitey Says:
If you are referring to me, you can go and get yourself royally F33ked Ar##hole!!!!!!!!! I would lke to meet up with you very soon!!
He did yesterday on the news.Cited Mr Combet and the Union Movements
fight for compensation and justice for the victims of James Hardie.You should expect to see the ads reinforcing those values very soon.
The next Morgan would be from last weekend and will tell not much.
The next Newspoll will however be instructive.
Howard having shot his biggest and best cannon MUST be praying for at least 53.5/46.5 in the next Newspoll. You would think they should get some sort of move.
If it is 55/45 again then watch the bodies fall past your office window. If it is 56/57 then watch them throw Peter and John off the roof as a sacrifice.
Rudd has the luxury now of waiting a while with his tax policy. If things look a little slippery he can bring it a little earlier – if things look bright then then he can delay to a few weeks before the election to get maximum effect.
Pardon, Scorpio? I am most certainly not referring to you, if that is what you mean. Read Edward.
What the hell happened then, Scorpio?
859
Crikey Whitey Says:
October 18th, 2007 at 12:16 am
Yes, actually.The later day saint should visit the earlier blogs on this forum, rather than wasting anyone’s time or energy on re examining this now ancient tax story.}
I think I owe you an apology CW. I missed the last few words and thought you were having a go at me for wasting other peoples time because I got on late and wondered if others had done the online poll.
I had a rather unpleasant experience a while back with Julie trying to equate the Latter Day Saints with the EB as I consider a persons Religion should not be slandered in the manner that she did.
They are not a cult, they vote and they don’t interfere in politics.
William, I have no idea. Most upsetting. Crossed posts, perhaps? Golly. Misunderstood. Not to get too frayed this early in the campaign. Think I at least will have a sleep. Will look out before to see if Scorpio is okay. Otherwise, night night.
Oh, okay Scorpio. No problem. Thank you. And William.
Sorry William, I’ve had a big day and have difficulty keeping up with all the posts and links as well as trying to follow the fast moving political commentary.
See my post at 867. I think I should hit the cot too.
Let it End and Julie – A vote for The Greens in the HoR is important too. Local Greens Groups where all members get to participate and create and decide policy derive most of their campaign funds out of lower house votes through election funding. Compare and contrast this with the ALP who accept funding not only from Unions but also from donors like the Hotel Industry and Richard Pratt.
“Sorry William, I’ve had a big day and have difficulty keeping up with all the posts and links as well as trying to follow the fast moving political commentary.”
Hmmmm. Perhaps the new government should hold an inquiry into Bludger fatigue.
How to overcome the anti-union ads 101:
Picture an ad with all of the following:
Brant Webb, Tod Russell and Bernie Banton all extolling how, when they were at the lowest ebb (in the case of Beaconsfield, a literal low), the unions were there to lend a helping hand, how they worked with managmeent at the mine, and how without the unions Hardies would have gotten off scot-free leaving asbestos victims with no cabbage into the future.
Game over.
Crispy 809,
Thanks for the reference, which I already have in my archives, but thanks anyway.
I’m sorry if I offended a scientist or two with the Goebels quote, definitely not my intention. I don’t believe a true scientist would ever stoop to propaganda!
While accepting that carbon dioxide and other gases have a heat absorption effect, and that burning fossil fuels certainly increases the atmospheric carbon dioxide level, I think Arrhenius and Callendar got the magnitude wrong. If not, the 30% increase in CO2 since 1940 should have increased temperatures by more than 1.2 – 1.5 degrees C (the absorption effect is after all logarithmic so the effect should get less proportionately as the amount of CO2 increase).
Personally I think the models are still far too crude, finding it essentially impossible to accurately account for the effect of higher cloud formation as temperature increases and more water is evaporated from the oceans. The extent to which the cooling effect or more cloud cover offsets the blanketing effect of the “greenhouse gases†is a big unknown and demands a large research effort. I think this should be done before potentially wasting enormous amounts of capital on something which may prove much less of a problem than many people believe.
I’ve posted this on last night’s thread so as not to contaminate the current thread with off the subject matter.