The Australian has published a follow-up to its weekend Newspoll survey, showing issues rated most important and the party considered best equipped to handle them. Labor holds handsome leads on six of the eight listed issues, the exceptions being the economy and national security. Interestingly, the Coalition’s score on industrial relations has increased to 34 per cent from 31 per cent at the previous survey in June, after hovering around 30 per cent since the beginning of 2006. Industrial relations is also the one issue where there was no appreciable shift to Labor when Kevin Rudd became leader. The other issue to run against the overall trend is national security – it surged to Labor as strongly as any other when Rudd took over, but the Coalition has since recovered to levels near those of the Beazley era.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll issues survey
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874 Comments
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Watching Howard on the 7.30 Report tonight, one thing struck me as odd. The nodding head in the background. The eye went to the nodding head. Same as in Question Time, that wooden Nairn. It’s as though they’re saying: “Look – John Howard is speaking – and someone is listening.” Spooky. I think they are trying to hide John Howard. If voters look him in the eye, he will frizzle. Or voters will …
Let’s see the centre-Left utterly crush the Forces of Darkness.
David Charles, I think I know where you’re coming from. If Bob Brown is pushing for the ALP to be elected then why shouldn’t Greens supporters vote for them on primary rather than through preferences.
I’d be expecting the Greens to ignore the majors and run hard at restoring the Senate. Try and cash in on the distaste some people have felt to Rudd’s ‘me too-ism’.
How do people think the Greens will do at this election? My speculation is they’ll flatline, and receive just under what they received at the ‘04 election. There is a possibility they could increase their primary in some safe Liberal seats but they will not improve vastly in the ‘battler’ suburbs.
As a past Greens voter I’ve become strangely dissillusioned with the Greens. I suppose in that way I’m actually a swinging voter for once.
Swing Lowe, I think a large proportion of us realise that if we don’t get rid of the NLP this time, our polity will be mired in a neo con nightmare of the worst of bad SF scenarios.
LTEP,
I think the Greens will probably end up a bit lower than they did in 2004. They’ll pick up some small “l” liberals from the Coalition, but they’ll lose more to the ALP.
From the analysis of polling intentions, a fair chunk of Labor’s increased primary votes have come from the Greens (I believe that Possum did an analysis of this earlier this year). So yeh, a bit of a drop (probably not that much tho, as they’ll also pick up the residual Democrats vote)
Swing Lowe, I suspect many will deliberately vote green in the Senate as the balance.
704# Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs
Straight from Labor Party HQ, did they send you a fax just then HSO?
Personally I’d be happy with a Senate with neither Labor or Liberal having the balance of power. I no longer trust either of the two main parties with the Senate.
“All drugs are evil; they are bad.â€
John Howard
Does that include the undoubtedly most popular and destructive of them all, alcohol?
Twit.
#704 Very true, that’s why many of us will vote labor HR and Greens for senate.
Glen. whichever, Glen you are, you are a very silly person if you think you will get any response from me, other than this.
Trade unionism is historically the main reason we have one person, one vote in this country. Its the only reason we have the two-day weekend.
They’re also the reason fewer people are killed or injured in workplaces these days.
Its often also more convenient for both employers and employees to deal with a bargaining agent. Plus, unskilled or semi-skilled employees will find they get a hugher income and better conditions if they bargain collectively.
I know this is high level material, so tell me slow down if you’re not getting it.
On another theme emerging today, Id say some people on this site are going to look pretty silly when the polls turn out to have been indicating the bleeding obvious.
And I dont mean those who are bold enough to make a ‘coaliton wins’ prediction. I respect making a call! Whats the point? You be no less wrong than me later if Rodent wins, and you havent made a punt (Im ALP by 8-10 seats).
Fence sitting scores zero points in the nyaa nyaa stakes!
And an I suggest a technique for tghe nervous nellies, thats employed in the treatment of anxiety disorders?
Decide you wont worry or freak out until you see some *concrete evidence* of your fears materialising.
I dont see a skerick of evidence that the coalition has moved an inch in months.
The Greens shouldn’t be too worried about the HOR this election. If Labor win the LNP will self destruct into factional units and offer the Greens plenty of future HOR opportunities. The only important thing is remove the LNP or face the prospect of a permanent loss of serious opposition competitiveness in future elections. ie Singapore.
Paul K although i agree with you, as i would like the Greens having the balance of power, but when you state you can’t trust Labor with control of the Senate.. could you please when in recent memory, since the 1940’s in fact, has Labor controlled the Senate.. so how can you not trust them.
Sorry, that should be the 7pm ABC News.
Kina (713) You are talking about a realignment of Australian politics which ain’t goin’ happen however much you may wish it.
Agree Lefty E with both propositions. Again would direct people’s attention to the long term trend. There’s the both qualitative and quantitative narrative.
Brown tips preference deals with Labor
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=306762
This will make thins harder for the Government to retain power.
Marky,
My point is I don’t trust either of the main parties with both Houses of Parliament. I’d prefer my Prime Minister’s party to have to stay lean and hungry and have to work hard to get legislation passed. The Senate should be a genuine house of review and not a rubber stamp.
Ok that makes two of us
…. any others willing to step up to the plate? 
:):)
They never preference us anyway…nevertheless we can win without ‘watermellons’ supporting us lol
This is a watermelon…..www.jasonwood.com.au
Kina it is only week 1 of the campaign and already there is serious discussion how the Liberals will self-destruct in the likely event of losing the election. Anyone read Dr Abjorensen article? Here is the link
http://thebulletinelection.ninemsn.com.au/libs_set_to_selfdestruct_if_coalition_fails.htm
Just warms the cockles of my heart!
20% unionists 9% greens. That puts your side a long way behind Glen.
I see we have one of the literate Glens tonight.
cheers,
Alan H
Well I have a confession to make. I will no longer accuse Kevin Rudd of being a John Howard clone. He is far more than that. A capable leader, a quick thinker, a good politician and also a dab hand at being a Steve Fielding clone too!
Kevin Rudd, Wednesday 17th October:
“…What are all the other things that are impacting on a families budget? One is a mortgage or your rental accommodation, both of which have gone through the roof, soaring grocery prices … you have got soaring petrol prices, you have 12 per cent increase in childcare costs and, to cap it all off, you have Mr Howard’s Work Choices legislation which enables penalty rates and over time to be stripped away from working families.”
Now, Steve Fielding, Monday 15th October:
“Australian families are battling skyrocketing petrol and grocery prices and struggling to make ends
meet. Many are paying mortgages while others in the rental trap fear they will never own a home.”
Oh, and Steve Fielding has had these issues core now for his entire tenure as Senator.
Rudd has found his motherlode and he’s mining like hell…
Great Paul k then you will be voting Liberal so as to maintain acheck and balance on the Commonwealth with every Government in danger of being all Labor….
Glen…. a few “lemons” such as Howard and Costello may do better and “nutters” like Downer and Abbott much better…
It must be worrying for the Coalition with the collapse in the National Party vote.
Evening all,
Howards tracking polls must be shit, the way he launched into deliberate over reaction with “wake up to yourself” today re:Rudds advertising is the mark of a desperate campaign strategy.
Well, I do not know who Glen is, but I believe he is being under paid. perhaps, he has signed one of honest John’s AWA and is on a promise of good things in the future.
However, some body close to Howard once said, “John is not into firm commitments ” so I hope that the AWA that Glen has secured is water tight because when judgment day comes and Glen puts out his hand for payment he might just find out, like many of us know, that he has been dealing with the devil himself.
Nay Glen. I’ll only go back to the Libs after they throw out all those Neo Con Facists who think they’re God’s gift to the world. When they move back to their core beliefs and leave the extreme right wing crap behind I’ll consider them again.
LTEP
Greens. Good points here. I have said all year that the flat to declining Greens primary in every poll trend since 2004 is newsworthy but largely ignored. The “anecdotal evidence” is that the Greens are improving their vote because Climate Change is a factor, therefore they will do well.
I don’t see the logic in that. If the media determines that all parties must have a workable position on environmental issues including climate change, then a key point of difference is lost from the Greens.
The only way to regain that ground is to have bigger policies or go further than those more central (Dems, ALP, FFP and LIB respectively, Left through Right). The issue here is that all this can hope to attract are more fundamentalist environmentalists, most of which, you would assume already vote Green. Any others might view such policies, such as the coal-mining fiasco, as unworkable.
Actually, trolling through figures to 2001, it appears to me that the Greens were off their late ’90s peak really, though the implosion of the Dems masked it, with Dems voters seeking refuge in Greens. There aren’t any left now, so this election may well be worse than 2004 for the Greens.
727 I can remember $weetie parading around thinking he was a genius for coming up with the notion that the GST will never rise because one colour will never dominate Australian politics. Now the man is worried about the consequences of his own actions when introducing the tax. It would be hilarious were it not so stupid.
The following comments refer to that excellent site Oz politics The Polls, edited by Bryan Palmer.
From the graph of TTP Results for Governments 1949-2004, it is possible to glean the following;
• In the 23 elections since 1949, the winning party has reached between 49 and 57% of the TPP. Although the ALP has only once slightly exceeded 53%.
• The Menzies era saw the coalition win 9 straight elections. It is certainly arguable that the ALP split and the smaller size (in voters not area) of country and regional/outer suburban electorates was of some advantage to the coalition in this period. The latter bias persists to this day with inner city electorates (which generally speaking are safe ALP) normally having more voters than regional/country seats.
• In the time since the ‘Menzies era’, the coalition and the ALP have both won 7 elections and lost 2 , since 1972, which might be called the ‘modern’ period of Australian politics. Thus neither party can truthfully claim to be the ‘natural party of government’, at least in this ‘modern’ period.
• Menzies won 3 and Howard 1 elections with less than 50% of the TPP, while the ALP has won none with less than 50%, thus confirming the bias in the system which advantages the coalition, mentioned above.
Turning to the two graphs which show Labor’s predicted TPP vote leading up to the
1998, 2001, 2004and now 2007 elections, with data from AC Nielsen and
Newspoll, and disregarding the poll predictions for the 5 or 6 weeks prior to the actual
elections, it is possible to draw the following (no doubt contentious) conclusions;
• In the six months prior to the elections being called in 2001 and 2004 there appears to be a strong trend back towards the coalition, in both the AC Nielsen and Newspoll results.
• The Tampa incident in 2001 gave a significant short term boost to the coalition, lasting several weeks. However the poll results for the ALP appear to have recovered after 4 or 5 weeks, but only back to the pre-existing downward trend. This seems to indicate that without Tampa the coalition would have still won!
• !998 is a bit of an aberration (AC Nielsen graph). Until about 10 weeks before the election Labor looked comfortable, but not so 5-6 weeks before. I’m not sure how long the campaign was in 1998, but if it was short there does not seem to have been much ‘narrowing’, by this stage the trend in Labor TPP was already significantly down, a continuation of which would see a coalition victory. It may be that the coalition was also still enjoying something of the normal ‘honeymoon’ (there have been no single term Federal governments in Australia, since 1949 at least).
• 2007 looks decidedly different. In both the graphs the trend over the last ten months is from about 60% TPP for Labor to around 56% now, and trending towards about 55% by the election.
Of course, anything is possible, however if the immediate medium term past is a reasonable guide to the short term future, and in the absence of a calamity, it seems to me that the probabilities are in favour of a very solid win for the ALP, possibly of landslide proportions.
Prediction ; 55/45 TPP, with Labor holding about 90 seats, at the close of counting
SJP @ 723
Yep, heard him on the wireless. Cockles nicely warmed, but remember that the good Norm is a strange pup, albeit grey these days.
There is going to be a cleansing.
“But suggestions that it may lurch further to the right have been rejected by a number of close observers. “Most of the critics of the Howard Government say that it’s into zealotry now. So, the idea that if the Liberals lose, it will become more zealous overlooks the fact that most of its critics say it’s too zealous now,” commentator and Liberal historian Gerard Henderson said.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061702.htm
The libs lost the election in NSW because of their far right wing religous extremism zealotry, and it is throughtout the branches.
A narrow win by labor will see the zealots of the right maintain control of the libs, the only way to fix the liberal party is a cleanout, and many realise this including the libs expelled or disenfranchised by their own party.
A good thorough cleanout will give them a chance to rebuild, reform and perhaps gain government in NSW at the next election and be competitive federally in six years.
Until they reform they will be unelectable.
RBA ‘too zealous’ about combating inflation:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2062423.htm
RBA ‘too zealous’ about combating inflation:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2062423.htm
“If inflation’s going to go from 3 to 6 per cent or 7 per cent then I’m with them all the way, but we’re not really talking about that at the moment,” he said”.
Julie @ Post 720
I too will vote Labor in HoR and Greens in the Senate. So that is 3 of us
I don’t know that it’s fair to say the system is biased or at least it’s not deliberately so. The fact is that Labor voters generally tend to concentrate in City and Industrial areas whereas Coalition voters generally tend to be more dispersed. Thus it’s not uncommon for a lot of Labor votes to be locked up in safe seats. Of coarse this is generalising and there are always exceptions.
I tend to agree with you Captain Gerrymander, i can’t see the Greens improving significantly, i think though they will hold their own and have similar result to 2004.
Climate change will be a very big issue in the years ahead… If one looks around this country at the moment water is running out in regional areas.. Many of our major towns are on stage 3 or 4 restrictions and summer is encroaching.. what effect will water be when it runs out in these towns.. In places such as Mildura people’s businesses are dying due to lack of water.. Will country people start moving to areas where their is water, putting pressure upon employment levels and service needs…
In the immediate years major problems confront this country due to climate change and the Greens to me are the only party which is looking at it seriously… Labor seems to think that you can’t do something unless it doesn’t overly affect the economy.
If you look at climate change it is a “sleeper” because action only occurs when it will have an effect… thus it is like anything.. thus an example fix a road when many people get killed on it…
Unfortunately climate change action is required now..
As i have previously said carbon dioxide doesn’t dissappear it sits in atmosphere and can do so for up to eighty years so if any changes are made now it will continue to sit their for another eighty years and beyond.. and that is just the carbon emissions we have produced because as we produce more,, more and more goes into the atmosphere and heats up the planet… hate to say it but this should be the main issue.. not taxes, not the economy but climate change.
I think it’s fair to say that the +/- 10% enrolment rule works in favour of the coalition , not necessarily deliberately. However it seems a bit anachronistic in this age of essentially instant communication.
[Why in the hell did Costello single out Bill shorten and Greg Combet? They must surely be two of the best liked people in the country.] 620
I think Costello’s really lost it, assuming he ever had it to begin with. That was silly enough, as was his interest rate claims, which he couldn’t justify.
He climaxed a pretty dreadful day by trying to blacken Gillard about her 1984 student union days with the Socialist Alliance, which according to Tip amounts to communist membership. 1984? 23 years back? Wow! One of our earlier trolls, Rupert, was always rabbiting on about that. Maybe his day job is as an adviser to Costello.
Glen, good to see you back. I thought ESJ must have been kidding about your special assignment in Brisbane wearing a chicken suit. You’re a lot more fun than Candles.
Some good news out of Leichhardt for Labor with a poll
showing Labor candidate Jim Turnour’s vote of 44 to 37 the libs Charlie McKillop
Plus some bad news for the nationals candidate with his sexist comments
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=305446§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
Worstschoices and the ‘away with fairys test”
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/news/opinion/opinion/six-months-on-and-the-fairness-test-remains-as-elusive-as-ever/1070628.html
“If the Howard Government retains power after the election, it may be tempted to abolish the fairness test, citing the extra cost to employers and bureaucracy as the excuse.”
You have been warned!!!
That a swing of 13% to labor from 2004
Rudd pledges ‘balanced’ tax response”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600616-601,00.html
Candidate rebuked over sexist comments
Wednesday Oct 17 19:01 AEST
Nationals leader Mark Vaile has been forced to admonish one of his own candidates for suggesting far north Queensland is no place for a woman.
.
.
Poor old Nationals. It’s hard to fight a modern campaign when your heart and mind are in the 16th century.
hey Gary Bruce,
do you work over at ‘the Age’?
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