As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
832 Comments
Let me be first!
While Labor’s primary vote holds up they are in excellent shape.
48% ALP primary after a week of wedging and sledging from our odious, fear-mongering little PM and his team of near-hysterical schoolboys.
With 5 weeks to go – that gives Team Rodent about Buckley’s.
I’ll sleep well on that.
Nothing to see here. Basically just more of the same.
A C N has over estimated the Coalition vote by at least 2% at the last three elections whilst getting the labor vote spot on, so I make this 48-40 on Primaries – that was my very best Nostro impersonation
Looking at the Primary list for the year I know which one I would consider more stable.
You watch Howard go super hard on the negatives now. His bile will be spilling everywhere.
A lovely set of numbers!
CW@1
after you
The Ruddster has survived shock and awe campaign, minefields still ahead +grenades lobbed from all-sides.
Is this ‘The Narrowing’ or dead rat bounce?
If it wasn’t for the Galaxy Poll result then people would be wondering what had changed. Not a lot according to Nielsen.
Enough Mr nice guy, Rudd needs to start throwing some punches
Houston, we have Narrowing.
OK, so they have their tax-cuts bounce. What are they going to do to (a) maintain it and (b) get the remaining 4% they need? Big tax cuts is one big-ticket policy conservatives always roll out when they’re behind. But what do they do next?
Galaxy is the most accurate of the pollsters. Labor’s primary vote in the Nielsen is ridiculous.
By the way, John Stirton is one of the most unpleasant-looking people I’ve ever seen.
Well I finally get to see what Stirton was rabbiting on about to red kez. Basically more of the same. It was fun watching Lebovic running the line that only the last three polls mean anything while Stirton was saying if the first three weeks are bad the libs are stuffed. Time will tell
Rudd will win next week. His tax cuts will deliver where the votes are (low and middle), cost less, and then paint the coaliton as inflationary drunken sailors.
Few choice quotes from economists, make a credible case for ALP on management, then its on to the open slaughter of the befuddled coalition B-team on health education, climate, and nuclear.
No problemo.
The extra boost to the coalition’s primary vote is probably coming from previously undecided voters. A proportion of them will include people who are completely tuned out of politics, some of whom may not even know much about Rudd, but knowing that the election has been called and knowing that they have to vote for someone, they fall behind the person who they do know a little about, that is, Howard.
Due to greater media coverage of politics during the campaign itself, some of these people may change their vote depending on whether they gain a greater sense of familiarity with the opposition leader.
At any rate, the narrowing in the polls at this stage may be a blessing in disguise. It will fire up Howard even more. He will stick to his current strategy of fear-mongering and therefore give further credence to the suggestion that he has nothing to offer the country other than his attacks on Labor.
It would appear that some Greens went to the LNP and some to the ALP. The 8% who are still swinging should thus split more favourably for the ALP or the Greens who pass their preferences on.
At the present tim it seems more likely that the remaining swingers will split more towards the ALP which, puts us back to 55/45 temporarily.
Given that people were not particularly swayed by the Tax Cuts Labor has a great opportunity to do something good with the $34 bn. $20 bn in tax cuts and $10 bn on hospitals, $4 bn on schools or whatever sounds much much better than and extra $5 a week for in tax cuts.
Howard may have thus made a tactical blunder by shooting his money off too soon. He will now have to play the wedge, smear and negative as hard as possible – and of course much of the MSM is willing to help him. [those future advertising dollars]. I guess if Rudd said he wouldnt cut back on advertising revenue they would support him to the hilt.
kina says:
It would appear that some Greens went to the LNP and some to the ALP.
wouldn’t it be more likely that some ALP went to Lib and some green went to ALP
vaio, another laudable quest to root out hypocrisy. dont look too hard because we are all standing in it.
No 21
Do you get paid for that product placement?
(enjoy Coke)
Nath – yes it could be. The only reason I don’t put it as the first option is the stability of the ALP primary all year. I am guessing there are some Libs with concsience, maybe worried about Climate Change etc going Green for the guilt.
OK where are the analysts?
Well done, cunning stuntman. Come back soon.
~vaio,
You’re just rcandelori in disguise and you haven’t changed at all.
This poll confirms my fears -the L-NP coalition is not only back in the game but it is within striking distance of retaining office by a comfortable, if not, increased majority. Although the swing back to the Liberals is only minor at this point, I expect it to become fully fledged in the coming weeks and expect the coalition to be in the lead by November 24.
Rudd is running a weak and lackluster campaign and is not coming up with any initiatives, nor contributing any substance. Neither is the government but they have the advantage of incumbency and a supposedly proven economic record and unfortunately scare campaigns have worked too well in the past. I would have hoped we’d have moved past the “reds under the beds” style campaign that the Liberals are running against the unions but apparently not
At this stage I think the government will lose 10 seats at most and perhaps even this is too much of an optimistic figure. I just really can’t see Rudd winning, as much as I’d like to envision it
As predicted earlier today, we see the dead cat bounce that commonly occurs after any crash. This 2% change will evaporate next week to have 55/45 where it will finish.
Rudd will win the debate, eat the worm and with the sensible tax policy win back those plebs who can be bought for $20 in 5 years. Talk about dumbing down the electorate. Yes there are 2-4% of that are as dumb as dogshit.
The swing as we all know will not be uniform and deliver 20 seats to Labor. Howard will retain bennelong but lose it in the bi-election.
Annabelle Crabb wickedly funny portrait of Marie Antoinette of Kirrabilli
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/bannabel-crabbb/2007/10/18/1192300949768.html
what is the sample size of the ACNeilsen poll?
1126
But Kina. We have analysed and analysed.
Pshephs. Humanists. Families. Individuals. Gays. Singles. Doubles. Married. Widowed. Pensioners. Carers. Wealthy. Opinion makers. Papers. Blogs.
Now, Tony Delroy is being provocative about the polls. Inviting the listener to respond to the Coalition rushing in front!
thank you JamesJ @ 27
Frank @ 26 Normally 1200+
CW@28
Read the article on my comment 25. not only will you laugh, AC has not lost sight of reality, which is most unusual for the MSM
The “tax cuts” are a stunt. When you factor in inflation they barely match inflation (over 3 years).
Rushing in front? wtf is Delroy smoking?
I think that Labor has played it fairly well so far. 34 billion in bribes from the Libs and they will be able to counter it from a fairly comfortable base of 53/54 tpp.
If its generally agreed that Labor appear highly likely to pick up at least ten seats at this stage, then thats 34 billion available to win those and another six. I’d expect a major announcement by Rudd prior to the debate. If the polls are back at 55/56 by this time next week the wheels might fall off the Lib campaign. Early days but it is still ‘advantage Labor.’
35
Ed the Pseph Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 1:25 am
I think that Labor has played it fairly well so far. 34 billion in bribes from the Libs and they will be able to counter it from a fairly comfortable base of 53/54 tpp.
….
I’m with you, Ed. Cool is the word. There is a lot of time left in this campaign and everyone will have their eyes on Rudd when he announces his tax policy. It had better be a good one!
Howard is fighting, though. Gotta give him that!
I agree – the ‘call the election’ realignment has occured and is why Howard tried so hard all year to bring them within striking distance.
Now it is down to the campaign battles. Rudd needs to go with his positive look, sensible policy and hope the negative campaign doesn’t affect too many people this time. There are a few points still to be won if they do a very good campaign.
The unkown factor is if the MSM will electioneer for the LNP. My baseball bat after the election might be for them.
Graphs up & brief analysis:
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/49/1/
A soothing dose of nambutol for the comfort of this soul, a verse or two of “the sun in the meadow is summery warm…” and off to repose; for tomorrow is another day.
‘POLICY nudity is not a comfortable state for any politician.
So imagine what it must be costing Kevin Rudd in sheer willpower to head out every day, tax-wise, with barely a stitch on.
Day after day, he’s asked in a dozen different ways – politely, brusquely, by journalists, by talkback callers, by hecklers in the street – about his lack of a tax policy…………………….
…………………Howard is kitted out like Marie Antoinette.
His rich brocades are the talk of the financial district; the extravagant cut of his train and the height of his pompadour alone are enough to send the Reserve Bank governor to bed for a week with palpitations.
And what does shivering Rudd have by way of a fig leaf?
How he must yearn for Howard’s policy robes; to clothe his goose-pimpled form in a few spare folds of velvet, and snuffle about companionably in the reassuring costliness of it all.
But today’s Herald/Nielsen poll tends to suggest he is right to hold out.
As long as the 85 per cent of voters who say they’re unswayed by the PM’s tax cuts are telling the truth, it suggests Rudd has done himself no harm by going bare……………………………’
You can read the rest of this expose by Annabelle Crabb
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/bannabel-crabbb/2007/10/18/1192300949768.html
So annoying. I thought Tony Delroy was his own man. But.
There he is, cheerleading, in my judgement, for the Coalition ‘winning back support’ according to the polls. Not that he quoted figures.
I jumped on the phone with William’s figures in front of me, to quote same, was responded to, waited 30 minutes, didn’t get a look in.
It was great to hear, while I wasted my time, the callers slating the Government for its failures in public policy, rejection of criticism of unions, the Government front bench one way experience etc.
Rudd has done a very smart thing to hold off from rushing out a tax policy showing very cool and strategic nerve. The polls confirm that the tax had little effect – it is the same tactic Howard used in 1996.
AND how valuable it is to him now! Rudd has $34 bn to play with and giving it all in tax cuts is obviously not what people want.
Annabelle may mock him but he is dead right – Howard throwing money at the electorate was silly and unimaginative and may have added very little in the way of votes.
Rudd has caused Howard to have policies where he had none before – and even caused him to accept Climate Change. It has been Howard running naked this past few years.
Johne Howard kitted out like Marie-Antionette. Ah, the influence of Alexandre Downer… is John Howard a cross-dresser tragic? I am sitting here in south-west France and remembering what happened to the original Marie-Antoinette. Based on the ACN it still looks like the Australian electorate is ready to wheel out the guillotine.
What strategic nerve?
Kina wait for the Coalition’s health and housing affordability policies these will be big policies.
Latest from bookies
Labour wins Very good chance (under $1 difference in odds)
Latrobe Deakin (5c), coorangimite, Mckewan, Mcmillan
Eden monaro bennelong, wentworth, patterson, page, robertson
dobell
paramata
lindsay
blair, moreton Longman, Petrie, flynn, dickson, hinkler, leichardt
herbert(evens)
bowman
bonner
Kingston, Wakefiekd, Boothby, sturt
Makin
Solomon
Hasluckn Kalgoorlie, Canning
Stirling(evens)
Bass, Bradden
thats 16, 18 with the evens. It won’t change from here except if some of the very good chances convert.
We are in! It reminded me of post mortams after exams were you count up all the definate rights and the ones your not sure about. We passed!!!
Interesting two polls out this half of the week. To me, the narrowing has begun, which was always widely tipped. I would not be surprised to see a 52/48 (to Labor) very soon.
(If you see a 50/50 its all over people. )
Anyway, the Coalition is very much back in the race.
Over to you ALP campaign headquarters!
Don’t forget to tune into Sky News for those who have it, today at 4:15. They are having a debate between the candidates in North Sydney
. Will just *love* to see Bailey tear Hockey apart 
.
At least the rumour about Labor’s primary increasing in this poll was right. Don’t believe the 2PP too much. The electorate is very polarised, and it seems the damn Libs have won some soft voters.
Peter Slipper in trouble …. more to come.
I can give you one piece of intelligence from Boothby …. the Advertiser’s whispering campaign against Nicole Cornes is starting to have an effect … people are starting to feel that she isn’t being given a fair go … I’ve noticed a definite softening of opinion in her favour now the campaign is under way.
How do AC Nielsen distribute preferences? Do they ask respondents, or is it a formula based on previous election flows?
Also, perhaps there should be a tipping competition regarding the number of polls released during the campaign … the majors once a week, with Morgan maybe twice and with the occasional Senate poll. Plus Advertiser, Westpolls, Mercury polls, marginal seat polls, and a special election eve poll from everyone …
GG online strangely subdued this morning apart from the predictable article that says 53/47 (Galaxy) means a Government win (severe credibility challenge here). Is the dead tree version any more favourable for the government? (I won’t buy it on principle).
I think these are great numbers for Rudd. He hasn’t had a great week, has released no big bang policies, yet the 2PP moves only a couple of points and his primary vote goes up!
I don’t know what all the fuss is about. 54-46 on margin of error is actually somewhere +/3% aproximately. Given the series (without the sweaty excitement of electioneering clorouring the interpretation), the only thing that you can say is that there has been a slight movement to the Libs since the 58-42 results, but the rest of the series are all in the same range. The results haven’t changed since the phoney campaign started.
Oh and another thing, the variability in TPP in down to a handfull of swinging voters and non-major party voters. In a sample 1126, were perhaps talking about the opinions of about 150-200 people at most. 200 people who can set the national heart palpitating!! It would also explain the noisiness of the TPP but the greater stability on the first preference series.
This is the government’s Battle Of The Bulge.
A schwerpunkt in a quiet sector, leading to temporary retreat, followed by counter-attack and ultimate defeat.
Many in the punditocracy seem to assume that Labor is coasting on its previous poll results and will not, or cannot counter-attack. There is no law of psephology that says polls can only keep moving downwards once they nudge in that direction. We’ve seen this before. The clever general absorbs the attack, keeps his cool and responds with his strengths, on ground of his own choosing.
$34 billion to buy 2% of the 2PP vote? Can’t be maintained.
How about releasing a tax policy on Sunday afternoon, sufficiently late that Howard doesn’t have much time to digest or be briefed on it before the debate?
56 – That would be a good tactic, and would allow Rudd to offer Howard another debate in a week or two to discuss it.
So PD41 has replaced “lose the election please after “lose the election please” got called out.
As the margin of error for the polls is abut 3% the whole series could come from a straight line at 56%.
The basic truth, something may have happened or this may be a result that has a sampling error about 2 standard deviations from the straight line and after all the sound and fury, labor wins the election at 56%.
I was hoping for a result on the other side as it would have resulted in a lot more entertainment.
Entertainment: http://www.theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/
A QUEENSLAND Liberal MP has been caught questioning the invasion of Iraq on a video posted on YouTube.
In a recording made last week by a Sunshine Coast University student, member for Fisher Peter Slipper expresses doubt about the wisdom of the invasion – suggesting the wrong decision may have been made.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22609385-5013650,00.html
Without wishing to exhibit hubris, I did predict (on this site) this week’s polling to be about 53-47 to the coalition, a definite narrowing. That’s only to be expected. The tax policy would certainly have made an impact, as would the anti-union ads, as would the simple act of Howard calling the election and getting on the front foot.
I would expect Labor to reduce the gap in the next week or so, but they’ll need to work hard to do it.
On the question of Labor’s tax policy…there are a couple of smart tactics available. One would be to release it DURING the debate. It would certainly make Labor the lead story in the next day’s papers, and dominate the debate itself. Why release it Sunday afternoon, and give Howard even an hour or two to analyse it?
Another tactic would be not to release the tax policy, and say it would be irresponsible for Labor to make tax decisions before the inflation figures come out next week. That would link Howard’s tax policy with a possible interest rate rise, and paint Labor as fiscally cautious, and sleep allow Labor to keep its tax policy up its sleeve.
Rudd could announce a major health or education policy during the debate instead, to help steer the debate away from the economy.
It has always surprised me in the past that few leaders have used the debates to announce policy. Howard, in particular, never seems to have done this, when it seems to be to be a good debating tactic. Their minders probably tell them not to release anything new on a Sunday night, but I don’t reckon that would be such a bad thing. Policies always take a few days to filter through to the populace anyway. A new policy – and an ad campaign to back it up – could make the debate quite effective for either side.
Pretty reassuring basically, even if MSM declares it ‘race on’. Grattan claims it’s Howard’s best result for months.
But with Lab getting 48 primary, things aren’t really happening. Galaxy seems improbable at least on their primary figures. Playing it up doesn’t hurt, however. Helps get rid of any smugness in Labor’s approach.
Steven, good to have you back for a while. Please stick around long enough to do your Morgan deconstruction thingo when it comes out(bearing in mind Morgan too is apparently showing a shift to the Libs). I’ve missed them since you’ve been gone.
BB @ 55
All we have to do is force march two divisions through the winter snow for a few days and fight a pitched battle against a remnant army group, complete with SS disguised as allied soldiers and we’ve got it won.
The primary figures for both Labor and the coalition are very high. This presumably incidates a polarising of the electorate to the major parties, because there is a genuine chance of a change of government.
But the figures suggest the greens won’t do as well as they’d hoped, and the other minors will barely get a look in.
I’d dispute this. I think the Greens will do pretty well in some seats, and where there’s a good independent, they’ll poll strongly. Independents never show up properly in the polling.
Speaking of independents, I’d be surprised if Gavan O’Connor can beat either Labor or Libs on primary vote in Corio, which he’d need to do to get a preference flow to win. But it was enjoyable watching him do the spray against the ACTU. However, There is a chance, that the people of Geelong, who are a parochial lot, may exhibit some loyalty to O’Connor, even though he was a lacklustre member.
Now if they only go and poll in non-liberal seats then the real result will be known
As much as Laborites spin it here, two polls in one day have it at 53/54, the trend a clear and statistically significant shift from the not so distant 56+ days (which we shan’t see again). No-one has any idea the extent of that ’soft’ Labor vote.
Labor’s problem for more than a decade has been its running from its own principles and history in the interests of a small target. It now faces a relentless (yes, over the top to us) anti-union campaign, and it’s far too late to turn around now and start countering with a: ‘we’re proud of what unions represent, have done etc’. Its left with a ‘aren’t the Libs negative’, but that is bare commentary on process: ie won’t mean anything if negative campaigns don’t work to begin with.
If mondays newspoll confirms the narrowing im gonna be in titches of laughter as each of the ALP’ers here trys to justify why.
Seriously people Krudd and his team (ummm what team) were never ever going to get a result of 55/45, 56/44 etc.
54 – 46 means 87 seats to labor, and the primary is still incredibly high at 48.
Looks like some of the wavering undecideds and libs are giving labor a bit of stick early in the campaign.
It also appears they are having a joke with labor early on, giving them a bit of a scare, more of hah hah, that got you worried. Like a mate does when he tells you he is thinking of supporting Collingwood or Manly next year.
But come election day come the wipeout that 60% of Australians want.
The best time for Rudd to announce Labor’s economic policy would be during the debate on Sunday night. Howard’s bluster in response will be healthy worm food.
Steven Kaye – Galaxy is NOT the most accurate of the pollsters. It favours the Coalition, as do you. I’m happy with the labor vote in ACN and Newspoll. This is an outlier.
This is an outlier = Galaxy is the outlier.
Graeme, three polls (I expect Morgan to show improvement for Coalition) over two days ain’t no trend. A trend is a trend – over time!
These polls are exhibiting a response to events since last Sunday. John Howard has had centre stage (see Hartcher “Look at me”) for days. It is no trend when all of the polls are reflecting a reaction to a single set of events.
Rudd has had a quiet week. Let’s see what the polls say after major Labor announcements and then decide if there is a trend.
Regardless of polls I think it’s an ebarasement for Australia, that we live in a country where the public is so stupid that they can be bought for $20 at best in 3 years.
Shame, shame, shame, dumbing down the electorate is obviously very effective. No wonder they haven’t invested in schools for 11 years.
The Lib are spending 17 billion per 1% polling support.
So 34 billion got them 2%. At this rate they will need to spend an easy 150 billion of our money to make up the gap.
What is money if power is at stake? You can never get in the way of a cunning politician and power. Whatever it will take to secure power. Absolutely whatever it will take.
These results were totally expected. The huge tax bribe was bound to have a significant effect and that’s why it was announced very early to start the momentum back to the Coalition.
The final result was never going to be 56-44 or anything like that.
At best it would be 53-47.
Surely Kevin Rudd will use the debate to announce his tax policy plus a few other goodies.
Peter Costello has now given him permission to spend over thirty billion.
The Coalition can’t complain if Kevin Rudd announces a similar level of expenditure and that is where the weakness lies in the Coalition’s early announcement.
The Reserve Bank will look carefully at Kevin Rudd’s announcement as they must be at Peter Costello’s.
It would be smart of Kevin Rudd to provoke the Reserve Bank into increasing interest rates on November 7th by announcing outrageous expenditure proposals!
The good thing from Labor’s point of view is that they still hold a comfortable lead in both polls even after the “king hit” tax announcement.
That effect will diminish now.
If Kevin Rudd does indeed announce a well-targetted tax reduction policy at the Great Debate he will regain the initiative.
The polls may well go back to 57-43 at least for a while.
It’ll still be a very close election and every seat will be vital for both sides.
We might find the independents holding the balance!
The main fly in the ointment for the Coalition is if interest rates go up on November 7th. It would be very provocative. They may wait till December.
Gavan O’Connor ’s comments ‘Kevin Rudd is a good man,he told me that he couldn’t do anything to help me, as he wasn’t strong enough’ ( or words to that effect). Chris Uhlmann, again showed his bias on AM.
El Rodente, has jumped on this statement saying this proves that the Ruddster can’t make a decision without consulting ‘The Unions’, he slammed the Labor frontbench – 70% union bosses, O’Connor had shown this.
Very interesting AC Nielsen poll this morning. Both Labor and Coalition primary votes go up. And I think a 54:46 split is way too generous to the Rodent: surely the Coalition wouldn’t get 40% of 2nd preferences?
Considering Rudd has had a virtually uneventful week and his campaign so far has been boring, and it would seem Howard has already fired off his big guns, this isn’t a bad result for Labor. However, they’ll need to step it up in a big way and create some policy momentum of their own, starting with Sunday.
Look at the Laborites here snivelling and squealing that the narrowing of the Rudd’s ‘lead’ doesn’t really matter.
Too funny.
Delusion is a characteristic all too common amongst the Young Labor geeks, failed AEU school teachers and paper shuffling Union administrative officers who reside on this discussion board.
Thanks Isabella. You’re bound to get the reaction you’re after from someone here I’m sure.
Isabella, go fart somewhere else.
Isabella,
The issue is not the narrowing of Labor’s lead, but the hypocricy of the Young Liberals and party hacks who say that “they don’t believe the polls” when Rudd is in front, but suddenly the polls take on new significance when Howard begins to gain. The Arrogance is startling. Somehow, when Rudd is in fornt, the people aren’t thinking straight, so the polls can’t be right. Or the polls are rubbish: “But I haven’t been polled!” is the usual retort from the Howard supporters.
Yes, I believe Howard is gaining, but I have consistenly believed that the polls are accurate to within MOE. Young Libs & Coalition Hacks are hypocrites in this regard.
And there it is
Centaur… it’s not the people’s fault. Labor has proposed nothing better than the government. In fact nothing is exactly what they’ve proposed. Yet they expect the swinging voters to stay loyal? Don’t blame the voters for mistakes made by the Labor Party.
Centaur, why blame the public? Politics is, in part, the art of persuasion. Rudd/Labor’s high polling figures over the past twelve months have shown unaligned voters are willing to look & listen, it’s up to the campaign to persuade these voters to convert that interest into definite votes. The Coalition face the same challenge; their tax policy release was done to grab the attention of the same unaligned voters & make people look at them. The subsequent polling figures are reflecting a degree of success in that regard. Nonetheless, the numbers are no more (or less) real than Labor’s historic highs – converting just those that have moved so far into actual votes will take a sustained & successful campaign, not to mention winning even more “soft votes” over.
As long as the ALP primary vote is in the low forties or higher, the coalition are in deep do-do. The largest non major party is of course the greens, and those preferences are likely to be better than 75-25 for the ALP. I will only have concern if the ALP primary hits the 42-43% mark.
You can plug the holes in the titanic in some places (ie Braddon), but then watch the water p*ss out in other places (ie Leichhardt).
The coalition have fired their big bazooka (ie tax cuts), and the ALP can now wedge Howard nicely with the economic conservative line.
quick Q:
1.are the Libs allowed to term themselves pm,minister etc
Is the media allowed to term them “the Government”, pm,etc and is their advertising allowed to use any of the above terms
(the AEC website is a tad ambigous)
Its a little sad that there is so much vitriol from the right leaning posters on this one. Seems like left leaning people at least try and make their postings that might be derogatory of the Government or its supporters (even the obvious FemBots!!) funny. Doesn’t always work but they try.
Anyhow, from an objective standpoint (down with the Fascistii Wan$%3s in power!!!!! Up the Workers!!!!!), i think that while the ALP primary holds in the 45 – 48 range the ALP is ok and on track.
I think that over the next week we’ll see the ALP come out with more significant policy. In fact, they have over this week, but just not the things the rabid Right have wanted. I think the ALP have a plan for this campaign and they will stick to it. By election day it think the analogies are going to be “JWH fed into ALP threshing machine over campaign”. We’ll see.
Isabella: grow up! You must be Steven Kaye’s sister.
LTEP
I am thinking more and more that you are one of the Liberal “concern trolls”, who are trying very hard to sink Rudd and sow doubt in the minds of supporters. Well, two can play at that game…
Don’t be too harsh on LTEP, he’s just a glass half empty kind of fellow. Still a genuine ALP supporter however.
Not much to see here. Monday’s newspoll will have factored in the ALP tax policy (which I expect to be released in coming hours). I think the Libs would have hoped for a bigger bounce out of their inflationary spendathon, but it was not to be.
Obviously, the economy feels like a home ground advantage for the Coalition, but they can’t go for the next five weeks pretending that climate change and I.R don’t matter.
John of Melbourne (#43) – I don’t think you should hold your breath for Coalition health and housing policies to help them build momentum – keep an eye out for a big childcare announcement (tax deductability perhaps?).
Oh and Stven Kaye (#12) – Sol Lebovic is hardly an oil painting mate.
Watcher and LTEP please you are missing the point. what the polls are saying is that the average pleb is willing to switch sides for $20. Isabella I’m medical, how about you dopey shop assistant?
Seriously we have to do sometrhing about the obesity problem as shown by the walk in Griffith with that candidate i can’t remember (funny neither can Coward) and all his cronies. What a pack of butter balls!
oh dear… I’m being accused of being a concern troll again. Obviously need to do a more convincing job of it. My cover’s blown.
The Libs have had the headlines this wek, so of course polls will reflect that. Labor needs to keep playing their game, release a few big policies and don’t get sucked in.
I feel i have to defend LTEP here.
I too am pessimistic about the ALPs chances at this election. Just because he is more eloquent and consistent in voicing these opinions does not make him a concern troll.
He is clearly not sowing any seeds of doubt in the bloggers here. Most of you seem very confident your side (and i include the conservative bloggers) are going to win.
Let the man be.
Chill everyone. This is 5 days into a 40 day campaign. Take a valium and have a snooze for a week or two (Ben Cousins can probably pass on the valium).
Can someone enlighten me as to what a “concern troll” is??
I think I have identified a new variety of troll, the double agent troll.
Known for making strident, virulently partisan statements which are intended to crush morale for “their” side because by their very strident outlandish nature there claims are unachievable.
I am convinced that imacca and Mathew Sykes are in fact double agent trolls.
What is Rudd’s strategy?
I certainly don’t buy the idea that Labor has simply been caught on the hop and doesn’t have anything to announce. That’s ridiculous.
You can bet your bottom dollar that they have each and every day of a 6 week campaign planned out, and that many many different 6 week campaign plans have been worked out in order to respond to LNP moves.
So, I conclude that Labor is deliberately holding its cards during the first week. Not only have they withheld policy, they have withheld negative ads, and there’s no union ads either. In fact, the only Labor ads I’ve seen are the ones responding to the Liberal advertisements.
Does this strike anyone else as odd? All silent on the western front.
This can only mean that they have decided to concede the first week of the campaign in advance, in order to bolster their ammunition for the remaining 5 weeks.
A risky approach, because it has given Howard some clear air. I trust they have a cunning plan — you certainly wouldn’t plan a first week of the campaign like this by accident.
ESJ
where is your crowing at the “good” result for the libs
Im waiting for the EB bounce myself
he already ‘crowed’ last night. He is a crow troll obviously.
Everyone’s been waiting for the Howard magic all year. It didn’t happen and 2 to 3 per cent of the 2PP hasn’t changed that. The libs think the rot is in and Howard will now just mop up the remaining 4%. However, mightn’t be that simple. The anti-union campaign is starting to unravel, given JWH’s rebuke of Hockey for saying essentially unions have no place in Australian industrial relations and the Mad Monk’s admission of yet another dalliance in his youth, this time with industrial democracy. Rudd can’t just run on three vague issues and a couple of road upgrade promises. I agree, he needs a big hit.
So EStJ, does that make me a Maxwell Smart troll, or a Kaos Troll or maybe a Dr Evil Troll??
I think we need a troll dictionary.
Speaking of dictionaries, one of my fav. Paul Keating quotes, referring to former labor politician Jim McClelland:
That you Jim? Paul Keating here. Just because you swallowed a f***ing dictionary when you were about 15 doesn’t give you the right to pour a bucket of sh*t over the rest of us.”
I have identified an old species of troll; the moron troll. They are readily identifiable by their words.
The 54-46 result sounds ok, but is not a significant shift
It could easily be driven by rounding and its too early to get hopes up..
However…the 5 point fall in rudd’s approval and the 2 point increase for Howard is, beyond question, a new picture in the Neilson numbers.
Neilson hasn’t had Howard as high as 52 all year
Rudd has only been lower than 60 once this year.
I would say the Libs would need to hold this position and pick up another 2-2.5% in the 2PP to win.
Not impossible but still very hard to do. You are all wrong to assume the $34B was the one shot in the locker, I assume they are holding back something big on housing affordability for later in the campaign.
I think the real positive for the Libs is the turn in PPM ratings against KR, assuming the negative ads work they should drive that up nicely in the next couple of weeks. Will be interesting if KR maintains the zen or if he comes out snarling as the pressure piles on?
Does anyone else think that currently the government is winning the debate on unions? Over the past couple of months they have successfully demonised them, with little real defence from Labor or the unions, and turned it into an election “issue”.
It reminds me strongly of the interest rate scare in 2004.
Labor and unions have to fight back on this *now* before it gets beyond them. IMO they have already waited far too long. I don’t really understand why they’ve held off on their ads… I suspect it is part of the plan to appear “above the fray” and not engaging in negative politics.
Well… nice guys finish last. This is one area where they need to fight back hard. Much of Labor’s success in the polls has ridden on the union anti-workchoices ad campaign which ran for several months earlier in the year. Where the f*** is it now?
There is a lot of talk here about the need to release policies to make up or extend the gap. My question is: How is “releasing policies” going to help either side much when the Coalition’s big 34 billion tax policy delivered very little bounce?
Sure policies are important (we politics buffs know that), but the average punter, who tunes into politics for maybe one minute per day total .. how much are they influenced by “policies”? I would have thought perceptions, appearances, soundbites would be more influential.
Well, $34 billion has to get you something – even a bit of popularity.
Most amazing thing about all these polls is Labors Primary Vote hasn’t budged.
Where is the coalition stealing all these votes from?
I would think the Greens would poll at LEAST 5%, so it seems like they are getting votes from no where.
ESJ — I agree. The government have got way more in store than the 34 billion in tax cuts. Which is why I think it is risky to allow them more or less clear air in the first week of the campaign.
Still, as I said previously, they obviously have a reason for doing so. Their campaign team has shown itself to be pretty effective (up until about two weeks ago) so I suspect that holding on to their policy announcements is part of their overall strategy.
It will be much easier to judge whether this was a good move or a stupid blunder in a few weeks time.
ESJ, I agree with you that the tax cuts aren’t the coalition’s only shot in the locker. However, nothing the coalition can release between now and election day will generate as much media interest as tax cuts. The media love them: they can publish fancy tables showing how much you will save in each income range, all sorts of silly analysis.
So my argument is that nothing the coalition can release from now on will grip the narrative in the media like the tax cuts have done. Hence this is why I referred to the tax cuts as the coalition’s “bazooka”.
Yes, Rudd needs a big hit. He has two of them; I.R and Climate Change. Let the Coalition fire all of their (taxation) guns at once in an early attempt to dazzle the electorate. There are five whole weeks to go – five weeks of Rudd talking about the Government’s failure to deal with Climate change, its dreadful I.R laws, the uncertainty surrounding the retiring P.M and his “successor”, the gap between Howard’s claims of “never been better off” and the everyday pressures that “working families” feel, the neglect of our national infrastructure, the dithering over establishing a proper national broadband system, the slapdash approach to the water crisis, the constant playing of the blame game……to name a few.
He can also talk about the fact that the coalition are in policy disarray on several fronts – an example being the fact that you have the Environment Minister running all over Wentworth telling the sizeable gay community that he supports the removal of discriminatory legislation affecting same-sex couples while the P.M gets up at a presser to say that he won’t change a thing. He can also talk about the fact that you have a P.M in waiting in Costello who is too scared to differentiate himself from Howard and show leadership on anything at all!
The list goes on and on – Rudd remains the same Rudd we have seen all year; measured, thoughtful, patient, focused and extremely disciplined.
He looks like a determined tortoise plodding along steadily while the Coalition hares kick up a heap of dust, running in circles.
Ashley – Agreed, I am a union official and am gob smacked by how silent the ACTU and Rudd are being. To be referred to as a “representative of working families” is damn insulting too.
People,
This is a politics blogsite, not a personal insults forum. Even though each side wants to win (and, by extension, see the other lose), surely we can be civil to one another. While I passionately detest JWH and everything he has done to our nation, I bear no personal malice towards ESJ, Glen or any other Liberal-leaning/siding commentator. Indeed, the ALP-siding people should be thanking them for granting an insight into the heads of their opponents. Instead, what I read is a barrage (by no means one-way) of personal insults. I don’t care who started it, I simply wish it would stop!
We all want what’s best for this nation, we simply disagree on what that is. We can each argue the others’ wrongness while still acknowledging their concern, remain civil and DEBATE the points, not just throw empty rhetoric back-and-forth. Let’s set an example for the pollies to live up to!
Having got that out of my system, I do believe that KR has some kind of strategy behind his moves – his past shows him to be a tactical thinker. Whether I agree that it’s a good strategy – another matter. Every move he has made thus far has been precalculated to make him look good. I doubt that he was caught off-guard by what he had to know was coming – a child of 5 could have seen a huge “tax-cuts” announcement coming a mile off, surely Rudd has. Mark my words (and yes, I understand that I may end up eating humble pie), the ALP has a carefully-planned comeback up their sleeves.
A troll troll: finds trolls.
Rx @ 108:
If these two polls are to be believed, there may have been a 2% bounce towards the Coalition.
Labor needs something like 51.6% of the TPP to win, so if they *are* actually sitting back down on 53% this early in the campaign then that’s not good news for them.
Policy announcements during the campaign play a significant role for swinging voters, and for consolidating soft votes. Rudd has put himself forward as a man with a plan for the future… so obviously if Howard is the one who is making all the policy announcements it doesn’t look good.
But that’s not going to happen. Stand by for a big policy announcement sometime between Friday arvo and Sunday evening.
Just as I acknowledge Howard’s tactical nous (at least historically), I don’t think it is even arguable that Rudd’s team has outpointed him all year. I’m not entirely sure what he is up to, but I expect a suckerpunch soon.
Any real progress on housing affordability must involve punishing speculators and thereby lowering house proces. This plays against the Howard constituency which is already hurting from increased interest rates. Subsidies will immediately fuel price rises and take up any slack. If the stock market falls on the back of further sub-prime shocks, the money will go into property. Howard won’t want that but wont de-oncentivise it either. In short, a Liberal housing affordability policy will be a sham.
My feeling is that this has been a horrible probably 2 months or so for the ALP. This makes me think the 53/54% is pretty solid for the ALP. If those 53/54% haven’t been budged yet, it’s certainly hard to imagine exactly what’s going to budge them now.
LTEP, is that some slight optimism from you?
There is an internal contradiction in Labor, it always needs to make a case for change to win. Labor has assumed that buying into the “I am an economic conservative” was the way to neutralise the coalition on economic management strengths and that time for a change would be enough to get them over the line.
The problem with that is that if you buy into that framework how do you now differentiate yourself, particularly when the Libs start attack ads which basically say you are a out of touch union party?
If you “me too” the tax cuts you confirm the Liberals as the trend setters and Labor as the followers, if you give cuts to the low and middle income earners you get accused of attacking “aspirational” voters. Its a lose lose proposition for Labor.
The other great thing from the Liberal perspective they have already used up a week talking about economics and tax – not much of a peep about WorkChoices.
I disagree somewhat. I think the ALP lost the agenda about two weeks before the election was called. They ran out of policy announcements to make because they were betting that the election would have already been called by then. So they were left with nothing much else to do other than carp at government ad spending and taunting Howard to call the election.
So I think it has been a poor 3 weeks for the ALP… pretty much no new headline ideas or policies.
I guess that’s the positive news for ALP supporters though. After 3 relatively poor weeks for Labor, and 3 strong weeks for the Libs, there hasn’t been a huge dent in the polls. They would be starting to feel rather uncomfortable about the deafening policy silence though…
I said earlier in the week that Howard’s tax cuts were an ‘all in’ strategy, which at 56-44 he had to do, and if he didn’t get a good bump the election would be over for the Liberals.
The bump for him today means he is still in the race, the problem is now that Rudd has 30 odd billion more to play with then Howard does and Rudd doesn’t need to win any new voters, he just needs to keep the ones he has already got.
At the beginning of the 2004 election I was convinced that Latham was just taking his time to come up with a killer response to the L plate campaign, turns out he was spending his time being an idiot.
Rudd really needs to be getting more media then the tax cuts by tuesday and be countering the Union ads effectively by middle of next week or the polls or we will see 51-49 by the end of next week.
Yes, I’ve already explained in another thread that these polls, to me, don’t cause any sense of panic. The ALP primary remains well above what they’ve achieved at the past 4 elections, published polling in the key seats to this date has the ALP at least fractionally in front in those seats, unexpected seats have shown the ALP in front (North Sydney, Leichardt, rumours of Ryan).
There’s still a long way to go to the election, and whilst the ALP certainly could fall further behind, there’s nothing to suggest they can’t stay at this point or slightly improve with a carefully planned and executed campain, both nationally and on a more ‘on the ground’ approach.
It doesn’t change my feeling of what the final seat count will be, but it certainly makes me feel no less confident for the ALP.
Again: Chill Pills everybody.
The campaign for your normal human being hasn’t really started. They will focus in on the last 2 weeks. Asking them to be engaged for 6 weeks was never going to happen.
No probs with holding onto the Lab big gun policies for later but start engaging with the enemy. Policies aren’t everything to voterland. They identify with individuals and themes. Get in their, throw some punches and there’s a few haymakers (the obvios one is the lame duck PM theme) and show a bit of backbone. That’s what I’m hearing from people (the old ‘ticker’ rubbish may be coming back)
LTEP is a well known type in Labor/left circles. He is no doubt a genuine Labor supporter but is clearly suffering from a bad dose of PTHS (post traumatic howard sydnrome)
This disorder has been common in lefties ever since the 2001 election. The sufferer has usually been so badly battered by previous Howard resurrections that they are unable to concieve or embrace any concept/fact or prediction rated to his demise. At election time they spend a lot of their time neurotically scanning the horizon for oil tankers loaded with refugees. Their analysis of polls views any Howard non statistically relevant movement as consituting a ’surge’
Post election, if Howard is gone, seat and all, you will no doubt find them wandering around the national tally room muttering that its not all over and the little guys gonna find a way back. In years to come they will be nattering on about Lazarus with a quadrupal bipass and quad chair, wielding his walking stick like a saber, marching triumphantly on parliament house.
The bookies have Labor winning 16 seats, 2 seats on even money and over 20 very good chances with only $1 or less between the odds. Do they know things we don’t?
Ashley is correct about Labor needing to counter the anti-union scare campaign, and I can’t believe they have virtually conceded this ground to the Liberals. In this respect its just like 2004 and interest rates. Have they learnt nothing???
Everyone seems to be missing the biggest factor this election will have which will be a knock out punch for Howard.
INTEREST RATES. Or more specifically the rate rise that may be happening after the November 6th meeting.
Sean, that’s very good, especially the neurotic scanning of the horizon. I’m off to take my tablets
Am i mistaken or has the knowledge/information of individual seats exploded amongst the public. I remember looking at past elections on the night and going where the f#5k is that. I probably even know the candidates
If interest rates go up on the 6th November, Howard may as well move to Bangladesh for the remainder of the campaign. At least they play cricket there.
Damien
I am of course partially describing myself as well…..
Let me also defend LTEP against this accusation of “concern trolling”. I’ve been an avid follower of politics for over thirty years, and have always voted either Labor or Greens. The last eleven years under the Coalition have been agony for people like me. I just can’t get optimistic about a Labor victory, having had my hopes dashed so thoroughly over the last elections.
If I (or others like me) can’t feign optimism, that doesn’t make us “concern trolls”. Just very human.
Maybe I have missed something here?
Howard called the election, released a $34 bn tax cut, got lots of MSM support, ran some union bashing adverts and Labor’s primary went up 1%
In the real world you would have to be pretty relieved that the LNP biggest gun has failed.
The AC Neilsen showed the Tax Cut had negligible effect, so I assume that it was calling the election and, I bet the images of Howard doing the big tax release that got people to file up behind their preferences.
The LNP primary went up 2% whilst the ALP has been 47/48 all year. The LNP’s new 2% would still have to be the softer vote because its the ‘newer’ vote.
ALL year the biggest worry for the LNP was their abysmal primary of 39/40% – 42% is a little better and new. Will it stick; is it simply a bit of MOE being kind to them? AND we could still have 55/45 here.
Labor has the $34 bn to divide in responsible ways and was very wise to not blow the opportunity the way Howard was trying to make them.
AND it important because a policy something like
$20 bn on Tax Cuts,
$7bn on Hospitals,
$1 bn Aged care,
$2 bn on Housing Affordability/Rent relief or whatever,
$4 bn on Water or some such thing sounds much, much better – and the difference for the punter in tax cuts maybe just $5 a week less.
And – whatever the LNP has to spend in surpluses the ALP also has.
8% of voters apparently are now still swinging meaning they have no pre-conceived affiliation. Rudd can win them with positive policy and vision while Howard will be trying the negative campaign again to win them.
Can’t say I trust the Galaxy this year and, because they were lucky enough in their sampling to get the closest figures in 2004 doesn’t make them more accurate. Their algorythm seems to discount ALP whilst Morgan tends to favour ALP [but now is schizophrenic]. Newspoll/Neilsen may a little closer to the centre of them both. The next Morgan is from Friday last? If so a meanigless poll.
Labor still have a strong advantage with that resolute primary and a good campaign should see them keep enough of it to win. With Latham Labor’s strength came via the minor preferences I believe.
I don’t know what all the fuss is about. With 48% Primary nothing has really changed for the ALP. Preference flows are never accurate anyway.
speaking as a howardhater, and with a sizeable mortgage myself, i’m desperately hoping for a rate rise in november.
It appears the election result has been decided in the minds of the Chaser.
http://blogs.smh.com.au/newsblog/archives/dom_knight/016119.html
Nice to see that Steven Kaye is back, it gives this site a bit of balance from all the partisan trolls on hallucinogens.
Next round of polls: 51/49.
Hey, at least Rudd isnt ignoring the fearmongering, as Latham did. Those ads are effective.
The PM was the one who needed to ‘grow up’ afterward – Rudd sends it back to the public, taking the piss, and Howard whinges that the ALP didnt just cop it; and then does a piss lame version of the same stunt.
Wait for the counter punches – and the demoralising, comeback narrative destroying poll widening in two weeks!
Yeah right. Most of Australia just wants low interest rates and continued economic growth and national security and traditional family values.
The Coalition won every day of the election campaign so far and everyone knows it. And don’t assume L-plate Krudd is going to win the debate. It’s going to be yet another anticlimax at the end with the Coalition winning with the net loss of maybe a couple of seats.
Kina
What your up against is the need for Coalition and its bevvy of media backers to construct momentum. The few pro howard supporters on this site are reflecting that need, rather than any real capacity to look at the numbers soberly. I suppose if youre starving you’re gonna pounce on a plate of crumbs. As you say, Galaxy have been relatively poor for labor and this result is the same as one they came up with in june (or july) when nothing was happening. Wait till Rudd puts something on the table before reading anything into the polls other than more of the same – a Labor landslide.
Nostradamus,
Don’t worry. You and Stephen Kaye will run away and hide again once the polls turn against the government. And when the election result is announced I somehow doubt you’ll be here.
Krudd has nothing, nada, zip, zilch, to put on the table. The best he can manage is a mediocre me-too at the best of times. As for his own ideas – NONE.
Being a Labor supporter doesn’t mean you can’t be critical of the election campaign/tactics/Rudd’s performance etc! To label anyone offering criticism as a troll is rather unfair. Like many of you, I’ve suffered through 11 long years, and any movement, however slight, back to the Rodent in the polls makes me frigging nervous.
I’m trying to stay optimistic, but if Newspoll has the gap narrowing substantially next Tuesday, I’ll be getting very worried.
Lift your game Kev!
“Don’t worry. You and Stephen Kaye will run away and hide again once the polls turn against the government.”
They won’t!
Speaking to ALP candidates there was indeed a very structured 33 day campaign plan…..
So the next 33 should be much better than the first 7.
Hopefully.
Why is it considered ligitimate to give preferences based on votes at a previusly election? I know there’s probably no better way (apart from directly asking) but in an election where the ALP were, by all accounts, pretty pathetic, wouldn’t you epxect the new competitive attractive Rudd to gain a LARGER share of the preference flow than seen in 2004?
I really hope the ALP gets the act going, they’ve been too responsive so far, but I look at 48% primary and I calm down a little….
Edward, how do you account for the Galaxy PPM? Rudd is streets ahead.
Kina, the muppets in the Tory supporting press (and on this site)will still find a way to hammer the ALP even if the produce the greatest tax package this country has ever seen. There is talk of them having something ready around or on Sundays debate.
I hope cooler heads prevail and they continue with the ‘rope a dope’ strategy. The Rodent King has hit them with everything he’s got,the polls are holding, and Rudd needs to keep calm. There is plenty of time left to roll out policies.
Rudd interviewing Rudd
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/is-this-funny-yes-it-is/2007/10/19/1192300995525.html
Nostra
I think there should be a ban on anyone reverting to the tired and worn ‘me too’ phrase – its bloody tedious. Say something original rather than something cooked up by crosby, texter and shanaghan.
I would think that for the Libs to win, they HAVE to have a higher primary than the ALP, since they tend to get less of a preference flow from the minors. With the Greens being the major minor (??) and having a reasonable profile this time around that should reinforce preference flows to the ALP.
Is there any way the LNP can win if they poll a lower primary than the ALP??
Gary,
It takes time to wear down a positive approval rating.
The ads are directed at the “team” and “union influence” exactly because KR is so popular. The expectation is that if these resonate (which i think they will) that over time it will eat into KR’s positives.
Once you eat into KR’s positives then it is easier to pin an attack on him. I think you will see the Liberals pivot from 70% union frontbench to how could KR control his 70% union front bench. Gavan O’Connor of course gives them a nice excuse to move to that narrative.
Having said that KR’s positives are already coming down. The point of KR being an economic conservative was that he was different not same old Labor. He cant really show he is different when he is saddled with his union front bench -that’s why the attack ad is so damaging for Labor.
Being paralysed on tax wont help either – he is not JWH in 1996 – in 1996 Labor set up the expectation that Liberal would have a radical tax plan that wouldnt pass muster – when JWH came out with something ordinary it destroyed their last hope. For Labor delay on tax is going to be damaging – he should have just come out this week and said yep its fine we’ll do it too. It adds to the impression that KR cant handle pressure as shown with Robert McClelland a couple of weeks ago.
Sure, the coalition have been frothing at the mouth about this, but is there any actual evidence that anyone is listening? I think they’re having an argument with themselves, and losing.
I’m also concerned that there is too much assumption of this. Even if the tax policy is the only major economic policy, I certainly expect a whole raft of “values based” social policies to come yet.
I agree with Sean, there has been efforts by some parts of the media to construct some mommentum for the government. They surely need it. If Galaxy was not on the scene today then people would be arguing the change in the Nielsen primary vote really did not add up to much. Galaxy may have have got their final poll about right in 2004 but they have had quite a few hiccups and rogue results in the last six months, not to mention asking some pretty bizzare and leading questions in some of their polls.
There are still five weeks to go in the campaign and people shouldn’t be getting too spooked about a couple of percentage points movements combined with Coalition attempts to construct an impression that they are on the comeback trail. If Labor had been offered these poll results for the first week of the campaign ten months ago they would have accepted them with glee.
As far as these polls go, given the unchanged ALP primary and relatively small 2PP movement, I’m not concerned at the moment, even if Monday’s Newspoll (the most important of the campaign) is in line with these.
But in that case, of course the next Newspoll will become the most important of the campaign.
Rates Analyst — I would be flabbergasted if they didn’t have a 6 week (42 day) campaign plan. Everyone knew this was going to be a 6 week campaign.
Much of the press has been pro Howard Govt since they helped the barrons with media-ownership laws and donated $2 bn in advertising to them. Has always been the case and will always be the case whilst Labor supporters keep buying their papers and not punishing them for partisan behaviour.
Frankly if they got punished with losing half their readership because of unfair reporting at election time they may just ease up a bit – or have no jobs.
I certainly don’t buy any murdoch paper. And I know a lot of the Chinese community that I know here have stopped buying The Australian because of its Govt spin.
People talk about baseball bats for Keating or Howard – I have one for the MSM.
Possible tax plan today, according to The Age;
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/rudd-tax-plan-hint/2007/10/19/1192300994580.html
I suspect we’ll hear the tax plan this afternoon, so that it gets lots of play in the weekend papers.
Everyone, don’t bother reading Isabella’s crap. It’s just plain crap.
Hahaha – ahh I love some of these justifications for the swings. I won’t comment on them until we see a bit more then two polls saying the same thing.
Don’t know if this has been discussed in other threads – there’s been a few opened in the last 12 hours – but those following the Senate race might be interested to know about the article in The Advertiser today.
Nick Xenophon will NOT be running under the no pokies banner. He will be announcing a running mate next week – a ‘well known South Australian.’ It looks like he will have a ‘letter above the line’ but not a party name.
Make life a bit tougher.
(this article was right next to one called ‘Could this be the death for the Democrat?’ Sadly ironic.)
Ashley, I have it on very good authority that Labor campaign strategy, and it used on all levels of their campaign, is to have a very specific day to day plan for 33 days and to save at least 80% of their campaign budget for those 33 days.
It doesn’t mean that they don’t campaign for the rest of the time it just means that they don’t campaign as much.
Will someone please tell the ALP to put Bob Hawke into an ALP ad to counter the anti-union attack from the government?
There’s not much use Rudd doing it. Coming from Hawke it would be much more effective. He’s very well liked and was a former “union boss” himself.
What better way to counter the union bosses argument than to say, look, one of the most popular PMs ever was a union boss. So shut up!
What about Shorten and the Beaconsfiled miners? Saying things like “Unions are here to help the workers…. And I’m proud to have done so”
Perhaps I could assume LTEP’s mantle as chief pessimist. I am seriously thinking about sticking a $20 on the government to win while their odds are still above $2.50. The things that have made me glum are the ALP’s inability to go in hard on the Government and the fact that at the end of the day the country is not in a dire state and that it is quite hard to actually justify a change without relying on soft issues like AWB, Chidren overboard and Iraq. The Tories are the most vicious, tenacious, cunning, divisive and cynical pack of s**ts that have ever graced the treasury benches and it will take nothing short of a revolution to blast them out. Kevin and the ALP are just too damn soft. They are rabbits staring at the headlights waiting to be hit.
Imacca at #153: I have done an analysis of labors primary votes in elections since 1983, and everytime the labor primary vote has been higher than 40%, they have gained a 2PP result > 50%.
The only election labor have lost since 1983 when their primary vote was above 40%, was in 1998, when they polled 40.1%.
The only election labor has won since 1983 with a primary vote less than 40% is in 1990 when they polled 39.4%, and slightly less than 50% of the 2PP.
So all you doomsayers out there, a labor primary vote, even if it was to drop to around 41-42% is still very, very competitive.
In fact Labor’s primary vote is a better predictor of electoral success than labor’s primary vote being above that of the coalition.
Sean at 127:
I have that syndrome.
And can you tell me, doctor, why I still can’t get to sleep?
And why the Channel Seven chopper chills me to my feet?
And what’s this rash that comes and goes, can you tell me what it means?
God help me, I was only nineteen.
And clearly the abestosis victims will be happy contribute their pro-union sentiments.
The ACTU should run the ads.
ESJ
I think you’re putting too much store in the notion that unions are percieved by the public as a threat. The right wing campaign to stigmatise the unions was at full throttle in the 70s post whitlam when ogres like Norm Gallagher were running riot. The unions were essentially tamed by Hawke Keating throught P and I accord and actually had a massive role in the reforms they introduced and the gains in productivity made in that period. Since then the decline in union membership has been mistaken for antagonism toward unions rather than related to the restructing of the aust workplace. Recently theres been a number of highly public cases which have promoted the good work of unions – in particular the James Hardy asbestos case. Workchoices has given the union movement reknewed credibility. To anybody who isn’t some rabid right wing ideologue or 70s refugee the anti union stuff doesn’t resonate like it used to. I wouldn’t put so much store in the scare campaign saving your bacon.
Snow —
33 days out of 41 is 80.5%. So by saying they are spending 80% of their money during 33 days they are effectively saying they will be spreading it evenly over 41 days.
Que?
Thats right Matthew – some people are suffering realignment syndrome after the silly stellar numbers of the faux campaign.
Fact is, all indicators of primary vote, and the likely pro-ALP breakdown in 2nd prefs firmly indicate that Team Rodent is about two miles up sh*t creek.
Watching them try to splash-paddle back in five weeks will get very ugly.
Id say just about everything has to go right for them. Not one stuffup, a pisslame ALP performance will also be needed, and perhaps an external shock of some sort.
I wouldn’t give ya tuppence for their chances.
A narrowing happens when the ’swing ‘ is larger than the MOE.
It wasn’t in Neilsen and we do not know the MOE in Galaxy but I am betting it is 3%+.
so no narrowing. Everything is within the MOE
Good morning
Queensland Galaxy Poll Unmasked
We have now got to the bottom of the supposedly bad-for-Labor Galaxy poll in the Queensland marginals. Peter Brent has posted the primary figures for that poll, which apparently weren’t made available at the time the (alleged) 2PV figure was released. The primaries were ALP 45, Lib 44, Greens 7, others 4. This could not possibly produce an ALP 2PV of 51%, as was reported. If we allocate the Greens 80% to Labor and Others 50% to Labor we get 52.6%. In those four seats, that’s a swing of 6.7%. If that swing was uniform across Queensland, Labor would win Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert and Longman. If it was repeated nationally, Labor would win 28 seats. In other words it was an excellent poll for Labor. This would have been obvious if the primary vote figures had been released. I don’t like conspiracy theories, but I’m afraid this makes me rather suspicious of Galaxy polls.
Ashley
I meant from when the candidates began campaigning, back in april/may
I interpreted what he wrote to mean they are going to spend 20% in the first 33 days, then 80 percent in the last 7.
Is there a Morgan Poll due today and at what time
Statisticians are damn liars to begin with.
How are we supopsed to remain calm if they are politicised damn liars too?
Disraeli must be turning in his grave…
Yes Adam and take 1% off your notional 6.7% swing and Labor would win 2 seats in Queensland.
The Libs have gained because Labor have been lame this week, almost like this was a campaign tactic they didn’t expect, i.e. a long campaign with big displays of incumbent power in the early barrages. Seriously you can say they have been playing it cool, and they may have been but the impression they give is that they are dithering and waving their ****s in the wind. The rabbit in the headlights look is not a good one regardless of the rationale that Rudd is keeping his powder dry, bunkering down and sitting out the blitzkrieg. AND the constant whinge about negative campaigns is crap, all Labor do is paint themselves into a corner of being soppy, bright and fluffy when Howard is a sitting duck for a relentless well crafted negative campaign, yes… I know you can wax lyrical about everyone being sick of the muck but in the end that too is idealistic dreaming, one can achieve more with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone, they they just need to get on with it.
Oh, ok. So with 5 days of the campaign almost gone that leaves 33 action-packed days out of 36. Stand-by for policy blitz from both sides…
For fairness Adam, if you do respond make it symetric… report the results with both a 1% smaller and a 1% larger swing
The betting market provides the most accurate probability of the outcome to the election. So where do the two parties fair dinkum stand at the moment:
Sportingbet – ALP 1.60 / LIB 2.35
AIS – ALP 1.60 / LIB 2.35
Betfair – ALP 1.62 / LIB 2.56
I think Rudd can finish strongly in the campaign. His housing affordability and more nurses policies are very good as oppossed to Howards no vision, no ideas, no plans tax cuts in which a monkey could deliver.
I pointed this out in the Galaxy QLD marginal seat thread. The preferences in 2004 were very anti-Labor. It doesn’t make sense for them to be that bad this time round.
Why can’t pollsters simply ASK for preferences if the person being interviewed doesn’t nominate Labor or Liberal as their prmary vote? You’d think that is what they would do now that the campaign is actually on.
Thanks Adam. I think we can all agree it’s hardly surprising.
Edward, 2 seats in Queensland would at least have Labor on track to where they need to be.
Usually one would be released today about 1 hour after it is issued in the Crikey.com.au email (generally around 1 PM).
But who knows if they have changed things because of the campaign.
I am starting to believe Wayne Swan is this election season’s Medicare Gold.
Galxy is starting to have a smell about it…
OK, let’s round it up to the nearest 10% shall we? That’s a 10% swing, how nice. You can jiggle the numbers all you like, I have presented them as they stand.
What Edward, you mean something the Libs go on and on about that the general public don’t know or care about?
They can, but it is known that this is inaccurate. I think this is because people are more likely to follow the HTV card than would be suggested by just giving them a free choice in a polling situation. I’m sure one of the real psephs will be along soon to correct this
I’m not sure why any polling organisation would not want to advertise the whole facts of their survey ? After going to the trouble of taking an opinion poll you’d think that all the numbers would be made available. Does seem a little odd. Perhaps it is to stop people from trying to work out how they distribute their preferences ?? Or maybe something else …
ooo 10% swing
SWIIIIIIIIIIIIIING
now people calm down
The Ruddster has $34b in reserve
I predict the great debate may be an eye opener…
Apparently Peter Garrett is re-releasing “the dead heart lives” as “the dead cat bounce”.
Next poll will be 55/45.
Centre individually the bookies have Labour winning 16, 2 on evens and 20 good chances (under $1 diff). It won’t change from this Labor 20 seats!
Martin is correct. On the day, nearly everyone takes a HTV and follows it. That’s why preferences flow tightly, and that’s also why Senate polls are bunkum.
Shame to see the dems go, i will be giving them my second preference. they have don enough penance.
175 Yes Adam it all sounded a bit sus on the day it was released. I still see no reason why Longman would be held by the coalition.
I’m waiting for the ALP ad campaign that has quotes from people like Peter McGauran saying that wind farms are frauds and the other coalition fogeys going on about climate change being all hype. These has-beens know that they’re done like a dinner on climate change – only options: continue to ignore the issue at their peril or do a massive backflip on kyoto. There are quotes galore from the last 12 months on climate change – pick a soundbite, any soundbite and you have yourself a powerful ad showing the coalition as the last to the table on this. Being a mandarin speaker, I’m sure that Rudd is familiar with the Chinese term that Homer Simpson defines as “crisittunity”; the simultaneous assesment of something as both crisis and opportunity (stay with me here). That is what climate change presents to Australia. In recent years, Howard’s deliberate lack of attention has worsened the crisis and wasted opportunities – Australia could be leading the world in alternative energy tech development now if it weren’t for the old man having to pay protection money to the Greenhouse mafia (google Dr Guy Pearse if you don’t know what I’m saying here). There is no issue in Australia that more thouroughly highlights Howard as yesterday’s man. This campaign has barely started and yes it has started with a focus on the coalition’s strength; buying votes. As it moves on, we’ll see the issues that people care about come to the fore. Let’s not forget the newspoll from just a few days ago that had voters ratings of the issues most important to them – 1. Health/Medicare, 2. Water planning, 3. Education, 4. THE ENVIRONMENT!
Howard pushing this tax bonanza so early is like having the choice to play one of the finals on your home ground and going for the preliminary rather than the Grand final……at the end of the day, it ain’t gonna help you win the flag!
Centaur @ 197
No they haven’t.
Adam, you should be suspicious. David Griggs was on ABC radio this morning spruiking his latest poll, and claimimg that it was a great result. The fact that he didn’t even bother to add ‘for the coalition…’ combined with his other partisan comments shows that the man is not to be trusted.
centaur_007, I’m assuming from your posts that you will be voting for the common man’s party?
Please don’t.
From the cream to the dregs hey? And you wonder why Howard has won 4 elections.
Adam,
Good work. All this notional distribution of preferences is necromancy for this little growler.
I only really look at the Primaries in any Poll. If labor scores above 42% on election day they will win. If they score 40-42% they might win. If under 40% then they are dead.
On this approach, Labor’s increased Primary in the AC Nielsen is great news.
Obviously, the MSM does not like good news.
Given that at the last election Labor gained 37.6% of the primary vote and now sit 0n ~48% I would be very nervous if I was a Coalition member sitting on a 10% margin.
They need your first preference, not your second.
If it’ll cheer anyone up I have a 2PP spreadsheet calculator that I apply to primaries. It’s based on verifiable, actual preferences distributions compiled by the Parliamentary Library after the 2004 election.
Wheneve I apply it to Newpoll it comes out a little lower than their published 2PP.
Applying it to today’s ACN raw primary figures it comes out a little above their published 2PP, at 54.6/45.4.
Interestingly, comparing the two figures – Newspoll and ACN – for the last polls conducted they’re about equal, within a few decimal points.
I’ve tried to be pessimistic about today’s ACN, but I just can’t make it stick. Labor on a 48% primary is shocking news for a government that has just sold the kids and blown much of its budget… $34 billion worth.
Some of the Lib urgers here say they have a lot more to spend, but with the Reserve Bank getting the twitchy fingers on the big red Interest Rate button, it’s problematic how much they can spend of it.
I think that for Labor, without hardly firing a shot, to be in such a commanding lead is breathtakingly good.
It’s Howard who is panicking and desperate. Sooner or later he’ll go too far and gaffe his way into history. The tax cuts just show how edgy the Coalition is about their chances.
Exactly, I hardly think the Dems will take too much consolation in getting a flood of second preferences in the Reps.
If you mark above the line for the Senate there’s no such thing as a ’second preference’. I’d vote for Bartlett but Allison is dead weight.
For the Morgan you will need to check when it was taken – if it is a F2F from last Friday then not much interest. If it is a phone poll this week – good luck trying to work out if it is another schizophrenic jump or something meaningful.
I notice that a survey of betting markets in the wake of the tax cuts indicates a 1.47% improvement in the coalition’s chances – the doctors examining Lazarus are yet to find a pulse.
GG, Labor won the 1990 election with a primary vote of 39.4%. It all depends on who the “others” are and what they do. At that election the Dems got 11.3% and obviously the majority of them preferenced Labor. In 1961 and 1969 Labor got 48% and 47% respectively and still lost.
On the day, nearly everyone takes a HTV and follows it.
Except for those well-meaning-idealistic-tertiary-educated-feral-DSP-infiltrated-naive-extreme-leftists who vote for the Greens of course
I think that should be David Briggs…?
Will Howard send more troops?
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/19/2063914.htm?section=justin
I’d vote for Bartlett if he promised to take up drinking again. He’s been the most boring man in Australia since he gave it up. He looks and talks like a zombie.
They probably take their HTV, roll it up, stuff it full of gumleaves and smoke it.
Adam, its probably fair to say that the minor parties votes are somewhat higher nowadays than they were in 1961 and 1969.
Matthew, of course. And the major minor then was the DLP, who sent 90% of their prefs to the Libs. The point I’m making is that preferences matter, and you can’t pick a winner just from the primary vote.
Analysis of the first polls of the campaign.
http://forums.ozelection2007.info/viewtopic.php?id=1040
Never above the line for me again, not after it helped elect FF. as far as i understand when you vote below the line you can stop after the first 10 or so is that right, ie exhausting my ticket and preferencing only parties I support.
I’m still comforted by my analysis in post #168.
Also, back on a Boothby theme, I’m hearing rumours that Nicole Cornes may end up getting both green and family first preferences …
No centaur. You must number (I think) at least 90% of the boxes below the line.
centaur_007: no, you have to fill out at least 90% and can’t have more than 3 errors.
The Labor vote appears locked in….solid.
That is so f**ked up. There are about 70 of them aren’t there? I did it last time but it was a pain in the ass. But I also do not want my vote disappearing off to some party I do not approve of.
$34M in tax cuts is not your average poll motivator!
And the result? Labor is still at 48% primary!
The public really has the Coalition sussed (and stuffed).
Centaur, there is no way the ALP primary vote in Victoria will fall so low this time as to make a repeat of the 2004 outcome possible, even if Labor did another preference deal with FF – which, as I have said before, we will do if it seems to be in our interest to do so. You can vote above the line with confidence that you will be electing three Labor Senators, which is the object of the exercise. If you vote below the line you risk wasting your vote.
Pah, if Labor does a deal with FF, it is the one risking the votes.
I’d like to see the Galaxy questions. The ACN MOE will be lower than the Galaxy. Does anyone know by how much?
Adam,
I was using my Galaxy rounduperometer.
Seriously though, I don’t think Labor will win this time if they score a Primary with a 3 in front.
Anyone with their pulse on Bennelong?
Hi All,
First time post here after a fair bit of time reading.
The one thing I have noticed is that Labor people here are easily scared. I suppose that’s natural after seeing the pathetic efforts of Labor strategists in previous elections.
But what many of you need to remember is ‘the trend’.
Labor have been on top now for, basically, 12 months, and nothing the rodent has thrown prior to the campaign has worked. This is obviously due to the ‘no-one is listening anymore’ factor or the (I think) ‘we’ve finally woken up to the smell’ factor.
Election campaigns, and major announcements during them, have a habit of waking a few people up and getting them involved. That’s what has happened with the tax cuts. Anyone not expecting a bounce was/is a fool.
By the same token, when Rudd announces his big-ticket items, he will achieve a similar (although I thin reduced) bounce back as more people wake up and some of the converts to the LNP come back to him.
What’s different this time round is that Rudd has started from a higher base than Latham or Beazley, has an incumbent that is ‘on the nose’ and has the public in a forgiving mood for minor stuff-ups.
As he announces his policies, the movement back to Labor will be sure and solid.
But again, only a fool would think that the rodent won’t keep pulling major policy announcements out of his….um, hat. He has another $40 billion to spend – so expect a counter to Rudd on hospitals, childcare, aged care and pensioners. Rodent will play the ’see-you, and raise you’ game from here on it to allow his tax cuts to be the deciding factor – which they won’t be.
Expect the polls to bounce around for a couple of weeks from 58-42 to 52-48 as the announcements keep coming, but ‘the trend’ to hold out.
So stop worrying and enjoy the ride. I’m nervous too, but positively nervous.
Where is this stuff about 90% of the boxes coming from?
This is from the AEC website:
2. Below the Line
In the section below the line electors can vote by putting the number ‘1′ in the box of the candidate they want as their first choice, number ‘2′ in the box of the candidate they want as their second choice, and so on until all the boxes have been numbered. The top part of the ballot paper is left blank. You must put a number in every box below the black line. You decide your own order of choice for all the candidates.
If I am going to be serious about analysing the polls, I will go straight to the most reliable and unbiased which is AC Nielsen in my opinion.
At the moment the primary vote figures, which are the fair dinkum figures to use, are ALP 48 / LIB 42.
At the closest corresponding priod in the 2004 election labor lost 2% and the coalition gained 1% to the actual result. If Rudd goes as bad as Latham in the rest of the campaign, which is highly unlikely, the election result will be ALP 46 / LIB 43.
If Rudd performs as well as Beazley at the same time in 2001, the election result converts to ALP 52 / LIB 36.
If I was a coalition supporter I would be worried.
I notice Mumble still stands by his prediction of 90 seats to ALP this morning, and remember he was dead right in 2004 predicting 87 to LNP.
The ALP primary is still very high, expect it to firm when Rudd starts the big announcements.
If you want to number below the line it’s not that difficult. You can even prepare your own ballot before you go to the booth, and just copy the numbers over onto your ballot when you’re there.
If you make a mistake you can ask for a new ballot. I always number below the line, so I can choose which senators specifically I want elected (even though I know it will make little to no difference).
Below the line votes make a big difference in Tasmania, where a large percentage of voters vote below the line.
The NSW ballot is so huge it makes it almost impossible.
Adam, I believe in the counting of the vote, not the description of the process of voting.
Sorry for off topic (in my first post here!), but Gavan O’Connor has spoken to the ABC. Sure Rudd told him he could do nothing about his dumping, but that was “long, long before he became leader”. Howard stretching the truth as usual. Sorry if this is old news…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/19/2063712.htm?section=justin
Adam, maths note so don’t look away
It’s not really valid to report numbers to the tenth of a percent, when they are based on numbers that are rounded.
What we know from the reported data is that the primary of the ALP is 45±0.5%, Lib 44±0.5%, Greens 7±0.5%, others 4±0.5%.
So, on your allocation, the best for the ALP would be 53.2/46.7 (if the underlying figures were 45.5-, 43.5+, 7.5-, 3.5+)
and the worst for the ALP would be 52.0/48.0 (if the underlying figures were 44.5+, 44.5-, 6.5+, 4.5-)
Your allocation produces a swing in those seats of 6.1 – 7.3%.
(Note that this error is additional to the MOE in the original polling. This uncertainty comes from the rounding – if we knew the actual figures we could eliminate this uncertainty.)
(This point was of course made by Peter Brent in the first place, and I think was also made above.)
Note that if you assume the second set of (bad for the ALP) underlying figures, and you reduce the Greens preference flow to 70/30 then you can recover a 51/49 2PP after rounding (51.3/48.7).
Red wombat 216
….Not to mention the US neocon push to include Iran in this maelstrom. Conscription is still a possibility here, especially with the bent for militarisation these past few years.
Well, it’s over… trend is clear… 2% per week and Coalition win in a landslide. Difficult to see them losing it from here…
Just over heard an interesting conversation in the lunchroom
“Kevin Rudd keeps saying he has a plan for the future…. what is it??”
Time for some policy guys!
As a longtime ALP supporter and former member and someone who despises the current Government I must say these polls are damaging for morale and are a reflection of the 1st week of the campaign. Of more concern is the betting markets. Only a few weeks ago they had ALP at 1.14 compared to 3.50 for the LNP. Now the gap has been narrowed to 1.60 to 2.35…..it won’t be long before we are looking at 1.90 to 2.10 or even betting for both sides.
Labor really needs to ram their message home. I know that the media are being tough and yet again just sucking up to Howard (or so is my impression), however the ALP are not really helping themselves. I think that the Government were looking shaky with their attack on unions even up to yesterday when Bernie Banton (legend) came out giving Hockey a return serve yet we then have this morning Gavan O’Connor being quoted by the Rodent all over radio about how weak Rudd was in the preselection battle!! Playing straight into Howards hands and neutralising the leadership debate or moreso playing it on Howards terms (ie what’s the point of New Leadership when that will put the country into the hands of a weak leader controlled by unions). Here’s hoping that this first week is long forgotten by the time the election comes around….
All this fudging of percentages is a lot of hand waving, and given other mathematical tricks I can make 1 and 2 equal. Take the result as it is, with the MOE.
Why the union scare campaign will not be as effective this time.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/
I agree with those saying that Labor’s primary at 45/48 is still excellent.
However, I don’t think you can deny that Labor has been on the back foot for the past couple of weeks.
All year they have been one step ahead of the government. But just lately they have gone quiet, and there is a hint of it in these polls.
Personally I think Rudd can comfortably win from here *if* they go hard against workchoices and if they respond more strongly to the attack on the unions.
It is not inconceivable that the polls could shift another 3% towards the Coalition during the campaign, which would make the election very close indeed.
I think the next week or two are critical. Labor needs to regain the agenda that it has let slip in the past couple of weeks.
re S @ 223, it’s what I’ve been saying since the campaign begun, but saying that makes you a concern troll.
LTEP (120)
“My feeling is that this has been a horrible probably 2 months or so for the ALP. This makes me think the 53/54% is pretty solid for the ALP. If those 53/54% haven’t been budged yet, it’s certainly hard to imagine exactly what’s going to budge them now”.
Good to see you thinking so positively about the latest figures and I agree with you entirely. The Labor primary vote looks very solid.
The latest polling is a ‘dead cat’ bounce, demonstrated by improving Labor primary.
Team Rodent had to get at least 2% 2PP out of its tax ‘bribe’ to give them any hope, as they did.
But again they weren’t listening – people want expenditure in much-needed areas, not ‘hamburger and milkshake’ tax cuts which will disappear with inflation and interest rate rises.
The ‘punters’ may not be interested in politics, but they’ll soon realise how fraudulent these tax cuts are if Kevvie attacks them hard enough – and then he must tightly target his own cuts to people whose votes are really ‘up for grabs’ to give “Howard’s battlers” something substantial – but with a bit for the middle classes too. He really should trump Costello’s increases to the low income tax rebate to ensure no one under about $12,000 a year pays any income tax. (Costello doesn’t understand how this rebate operates either, so should be bagged unmercifully for that!).
Disability pensioners shouldn’t pay tax on any ‘personal service’ income until that reaches double the pension amount and the loss of pension for each dollar earnt from personal exertion should be no more than 20 cents, to provide a really substantial incentive for them to re-enter the workforce if they can. People need to be weaned off pensions, not shocked off and effectively thrown on the streets because they can’t work.
Similar tax breaks need to be available for apprentices and trainees, to encourage them to complete their training and do something about the skills shortage.
Having spent $34 billion, they’ve played right into Kevvie’s hands, who can now offer targetted expenditure increases and tax cuts like those described, but still credibly maintain the “economic conservative” line.
Even if the ‘real’ primary for Labor is 46, assuming 2% MOE, they will still s..t in on second prefs, as they’ll get > 60% of those in most marginal seats if the Greens vote is substantial, which it will be in Victoria and South Australia in particular. If Kerry Nettle keeps her Senate seat, St. Kevvie wins the election, as that would mean a Greens vote of 15% or more in seats like Wentworth.
Labor can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, no risk. The ’silence’ from ALP is deafening. The next two weeks will tell if this is a winning strategy, but it seems high risk to give the Rodent so much ‘air’.
They should be attacking the ‘lame duck’ Rodent ( what would that creature look like?) and the smirking/sneering Abbott/Costello ‘team’. Sure hope they paint them as the clowns they are.
Imagine being Treasurer for eleven years and being unable to properly calculate income tax? How many times must he have seen the schedules showing where the different rates cut in?
I hope ALP has some really dirty and nasty ads to throw at these turds. Forget this ‘Presidential’ stuff Kevvie. Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition was a great strategy to neutralise Rodent’s wedges, but it ain’t going to win hearts and minds, which is what election campaigns are about.
Don’t need to pull crazy stunts like Latham, but seems like it is time to go on the attack, or risk the ‘no ticker’ tag that Beazley couldn’t escape.
S,
Open eyes, clean ears.
The ACTU isn’t ignoring Team Rodents attack here is their response that they emailed to all their Rights at Work suppoerts last night :
Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey has today confirmed the Howard Government’s intention to go further on industrial relations and get rid of trade unions altogether if re-elected.
Speaking on ABC radio this morning, Mr Hockey said: “The days of unions are essentially over.”
The Howard Government has already cut workers’ protection from unfair dismissal and allowed penalty rates, overtime, and redundancy pay to be reduced. Now they plan to get rid of all protections for working people, including unions.
Listen to Mr Hockey’s admission on our website here: http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/campaigns/theywillgofurther
A Government document already shows that John Howard wants to push an extra 1.5 million workers onto AWAs. Peter Costello has previously admitted he wants to further cut workers’ protection from unfair dismissal.
You can view the leaked documents and the quotes from Mr Costello here:
http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/campaigns/theywillgofurther
Now Mr Hockey has revealed the Government wants to get rid of Australians’ right to be represented by unions altogether if it is re-elected. This is a stunning admission of the Liberal Party’s future agenda on industrial relations.
You’ll recall Liberal Finance Minister said in a leaked recording last year that the Government intended to undertake a “new wave” of extreme industrial relations changes if elected.
The stakes for working Australians have never been higher. We must make sure that the Howard Government is not re-elected. Please take every opportunity to inform everyone you know about these facts.
Many thanks,
The Rights at Work campaign team
Adam: Check out this page, and not the first 3 bullet points as they’re in regards to determining if a vote below the line is valid.
http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/pubs/odgers/chap0413.htm
Okay I’ll number every square ho hum!
I mean ‘and note’
Timbo at 10 says
Enough Mr nice guy, Rudd needs to start throwing some punches…
No. He needs to start landing some. And when he gets him on the ground, apply the Redfern fair go. That is, put the boot in.
Lord how I wish I was one of those not giving a sh*t types, 5 weeks seems such a very long time right about now.
SJP @ 251
Yes but that’s of limited effectiveness isn’t it?
The unions best form of defence (and attack) is TV ads. But they’ve been more or less silent on ads for months now, ever since they winded down their very successful anti-workchoices campaign.
I’m sure they’re going to fire it up again, but I would have liked them to have done it by now. How long are they prepared to wait while the government slags them off?
So it is not quite correct to say you have to get 90% right BTL.
You have to number 90% of the boxes, but can make at most three* mistakes, bearing in mind that your vote exhausts at the first mistake (or is informal if you make a mistake with the 1.)
* two in the unlikely event that there are 9 or fewer candiudates on the paper.
Actually the last 5 days campaigning reminds me of a lot of the minnows .v. majors match-ups that took place in the Rugby World Cup pool stages.
The smaller team would throw everything at their opponents for the first 20-25 minutes and appear to match the bigger boys, though usually without making appreciable progress towards their try line. Then, in the shadows of half-time, as the smaller and less conditioned minnows became tired or ran out of inspiration, the bigger team would quickly run in 2-3 tries and the score would blow out.
In the lead-up to the election being called there was lots of talk of the Libs struggling to find donors, hence their reliance of taxpayer-funded ads.
In contrast, the ALP and the ACTU are both sitting on a large pile of $ – not a single cent of that will be left unspent in their quest to knock off Howard. After firing their biggest shot in the locker (and really, after 11.5 years, do we really expect Howard to do anything which will surprise us, apart from every higher levels of profligacy?), Howard and co. will have trouble trying to make their voices heard above the cacophony I expect the ALP to launch from, say, Week 3.
Thereby overcoming the pond sum preference deals Adam is so fond of. Thank goodness some Another Liberal Party supporters have a brain cell or two.
Adam (233)
A senate below the line vote will be valid if:
1. There is a number 1, and
2. At least 90% of the boxes have numbers in them, and
3. No more than three errors have been made in the numerical sequence.
This was part of a range of electoral reforms introduced by the Hawke government back in 1984.
I have conducted the senate count over many elections now and I can assure you they are the rules. It’s just that they are not widely promoted to the public. Can you imagine how difficult it would be to put all that on the ballot paper and expect the average punter to understand it?
Adrian @ 202 “Adam, you should be suspicious. David Griggs was on ABC radio this morning spruiking his latest poll, and claiming that it was a great result. The fact that he didn’t even bother to add ‘for the coalition…’ combined with his other partisan comments shows that the man is not to be trusted.”
I picked up on that too, Adrian, and emailed Virginia Triole on the point as part of her talkback. She didn’t read it out, however.
I think from a labor perspective things are Ok but you wouldn’t want them to perform the same way that they’ve performed this week throughout the campaign. The presidential thing is not going to work. I’ve noticed lately that Labor, probably cos of not wanting to do anything to risk their lead, are essentially reverting to party line mantras in all interviews. Rudd can be terrible in this regard, but even good performers like Penny Wong and Julia Gillard are doing the same. Mantras of course are important but they shoudln’t mean that Labor just lie down in the face of liberal mudslinging. They need to show a bit of passion and take on the libs. That includes mudslinging of their own. God knows theres plenty of material. I fear the dead hand of Gartrell in their approach.
George M in the OZ yesterday made a reasonable point re labors tax response. While its understandable that they not immediately announce their policy, Rudds reaction on the day smacked of someone who didn’t have an idea. He didnt criticise any facet of the coalition plan. He just lamely said he’d go and ’study it’. Surely if Labor had a solid policy or broad notion of what they were going to do re Tax Rudd could have offered some critical analyse of Howards plan(inflationary, geared to the top end of town, etc) Instead he played dead.
There seems to be a pattern emerging where Labor – like a team thats winning by 50 points in the last quarter – are concentrating soley on not making mistakes. The problem is that in doing so they’re opening the door to the rodent.
235 steve
As I discussed with ESJ yesterday (and never received an adequate reply) the view from Peter Martin stacks up, or rather, there are logical failings in the negative insinuations attached to the word ‘union’.
If everyone had their thinking cap on, I’d agree, it won’t be effective. But alas I fear it will have an effect.
It’s taken the best part of 2-3 years for there to be a mass appreciation that the ‘record low interest rates’ was never, and never could be, an honest logical proposition.
It’s possible that the ALP has failed to inoculate against this point (most likely), that they expected it and know there’s no response that has a net positive outcome (take the hit – it’s better than two hits), or that they have a more complex response:
The phoney campaign certainly had a degree of subtlety that I haven’t seen previously – there’s a lot of leading the horse to water rather than just forcing him to drink happening. Part of the reason for Rudd’s stratospherically high numbers is, I believe, a genuine belief by the majority that they’ve come to see Rudd positively ‘on their own’.
Three’s no need to jamb down peoples throats that they voted incorrectly in 2004 and before, and in fact this is likely to lead to a reactionary negative (pride) response.
Maybe all this game theory and subtlety is beyond the electorate.
At some point the ALP will be hoping that the negative connotation of ‘union’ ends. Logically I think it’s false, but if the Australian public believe it’s their idea, then it will become a less and less powerful theme into the future, particularly of Shorten and Combet perform well post positive result.
A little OT, but any tips for the Rugby final on Sat night – a change from second-guessing poll numbers is as good as a holiday!
Since the Wallabies aren’t in it a lot of people here might say “so what”, but I think the final will be enthralling. Unlike a lot of rugby commentators in Aus I enjoy the bullocking style of the English, Argentinian and Springbok teams. If I wanted to see thrilling runs and lots of passing & ball in hand, then I would stick with my first love, AFL. What’s turned me onto rugby is the sight of 2 bunches of big boofy blokes going at each other hammer and tongs!
(Please refrain from gratuitous remarks about my presumed recreational pursuits or taste in cinema
)
Labor will target their campaigning exactly as analysed, planned and required. They are not certainly not simpletons sitting around waiting for ‘Home and Away’ to finish before they do something. How do you think they managed to keep Labor so high for so long and almost caused Howard’s demise on a few occasions?
It was inevitable that the Govt’s Tax Cut was going to be big news and run by the MSM whenever they released it, unavoidable – as it was I don’t think they got the best play they could have since the union ad dispute and ben cousins distracted attention. AND according to the Neilsen poll the Tax Cut was a non-event anyway. The event that seems to have been the major cause of whatever shift there has been [yet to be confirmed] is the calling of the election.
AND I do think that Rudd’s anti-anti-union ad has taken the sting out of future LNP ads and, it has cause Hockey to make a mistake, the aftermath further weakening the bite of an anti-union fear campaign. Even Howard had to come out and support the existence of unions.
So the ALP have done the strategically right thing with the union ads and it has helped distract from 1. the Tax Cuts 2. the LNP pressure on ALP for a tax policy release.
The problem I am seeing is a fairly bias level of airplay against ALP and the amount of pejorative language they use with Labor but not the LNP. Labor has much of the MSM tilted against it at the moment.
Lomandra, the morning show on 702 is coming across as thinly disguised government propaganda at the moment. Trioli even attempted to turn the latest report from Iraq into an attack on Labor.
I have e-mailed her as well, but have not received a response. Anyway, it is clear how she deals with criticism by listening to her treatment of those who call in and don’t toe the party line.
Patience guys, patience.
Howard fired his biggest and only real shot straight away with his brainless tax cuts. So he went straight to the front in the campaign. Rudd has kept him in check, then will put the pressure on, put his nose in front midway through and win the election.
Remember, when it will come to the crunch, people like him more than Costello and Howard is the old.
This is good news:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22613190-2,00.html
No doubt the Government will try their darndest to pick some “holes” in in their tax policy, even if no holes exist. I would hope Labor have thoroughly costed it to avoid that.
Adam (176)
Your suspicion of Galaxy polls is well placed. It has been obvious for some time that Briggs is a cheer leader for the government.
LTEP @ 236 said – The NSW ballot is so huge it makes it almost impossible…
I have voted in one NSW election in my life (one before last). I spent around 45 minutes in the booth voting below the line – unforgettable
Or well educated well meaning leftists who vote for Labor and hate being told what to do by anyone. I will vote my own mind and if it works out being the same as Labors HTV card, so be it
Abbott waters down hospitals plan……..
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22613197-12377,00.html
The reality is, even if the ALP’s tax policy is properly costed Howard and Co will still claim they’ve done the maths wrong and find a “hole”, just for the sake of it.
If the Galaxy/Nielsen poll average of 53.5% represents the Australia-wide TPP, then this in turn represents an approx fall of 1% per day. This is nearly one thousand times the average rate of change during all campaign periods for the elections of 1946-2004 and is about 6 times the largers than the fastest rate of fall in ALP TPP ever recorded.
For an Oppoistion to have a tax policy they first need to get their heads round the myefo. The latest it larger than usual.
Rudd gave the proper response.
The government’s policy was obviously done by Treasury and the mefoe was released much earlier then usual.
If I was Rudd I wouldn’t release his policy until 5.30 on Sunday.
He gets the News Headlines and can show up his policy re howard’s in the Q&A. howard would not have time to get acroos the ALP policy.
the letters to the editor in todays print copy of the Avertiser’s most talked about were ALL lauding the unions,i honestly can’t see the anti union smear taking effect, yesterdays most talked about was the tax cuts and again they were all wanting infrastructure rather than cuts, i think the poll’s change are because the union ads hav’nt been running yet and Rudd is trying too much to be Mr. nice guy and running a positive campaign, he needs to start rolling out a couple of big policies every now and again to make them sit up and take notice and where are the anti nuclear plants ads?
Is there any way to access the Joe Hockey show this afternoon asides on Sky? I anticipate a couple of corkers…
Centaur_007 @ 220,
“Never above the line for me again, not after it helped elect FF. as far as i understand when you vote below the line you can stop after the first 10 or so is that right, ie exhausting my ticket and preferencing only parties I support.”
This is my first federal election and I wanted to make sure I got it right when I went into the polling booth. So I went to the AEC website and checked out the information on voting for HOR and Senate. HOR is straight forward as you probably know. Since you are talking about above the line, you are referring to the Senate. For the Senate, it is (according to the AEC site to make a valid vote) *EITHER* (1) a ‘1′ above the line in one box OR (2) number all the boxes below the line. I remember reading somewhere about a “margin” of error for mistakes if you do it below the line BUT if you carefully make sure you number ALL boxes you will be fine.
IF you put more than ONE number above the line it is an informal vote.
If you want party ‘A’ on top and party ‘E’ on the bottom, number all of ‘A’s people 1 to whatever, then go onto ‘B’,'C’ etc. and so on until you get to the party you wanted last. Number them with whatever remaining numbers you have left.
http://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/How_to_vote/Voting_HOR.htm
http://www.aec.gov.au/Voting/How_to_vote/Voting_Senate.htm
“Give me another pie” Joe is going explode by the 24th
The analogy of a term which is trailing by 50 points at the start of the last quarter is a very good one. If they kick the first goal of the last quarter, their cheer squad goes rah rah rah and Stan Alves says “I tell ya what, they’re coming back! There’s no doubt about that, they’re coming back!” Everyone likes a close finish, and it’s the job of commentators to beat up a close finish so people keep listening. But usually they don’t come back. Nearly always the team which is 50 points down at three-quarter time loses. (Unless the coach of the team which is 50 points up is really dumb and goes into a panic after the first goal. But in this case said coach is not really dumb.)
Back after half time.
Oh I hope that Bailey is all over this this afternoon (debate with Hockey at 4:15pm on Sky)
:)
Abbot applies the weasel technique to back away from something the focus groups don’t like. I find it astounding that they didn’t test it first.
On a similar note – as the $10bn water plan wasn’t agrees to by all states – what’s the bet that money is back on the table for redistribution too?
The Chaser was pretty harsh on Wednesday and Clarke and Dawe didn’t tread lightly last night either – sucked me in, had me sitting on the edge of the seat and then WHAM – smacked me right across the chops wit the blindingly obvious.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/
The link to the specific segment on the right is incorrect – it links to last week – try the links at the top to stream the whole program and go to 27min40s
I hope Labor don’t release their tax policy before the debate. That would give Kevin Rudd good reason to push John Howard on air for a second one when he does.
Support your party
http://www.theage.com.au/multimedia/electionGame_oct07/
I pray this Labor tax policy is water tight and doesn’t start leaking.
I think Rudd needs to start playing to Labor’s strengths: anti Workchoices, Education, Health etc.
As for Gavin O’Connor, shame on him for handing the Liberals amunition. What a bitter old fool! He hasn’t got a hope in hell of winning Corio. He should have gracefully retired.
One major disadvantage to Team Howard approach is the fact that you have to let the team memebrs speak.
Check out this beauty from the Abbot (This guy’s on fire)
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22613194-5013946,00.html
I love hearing Abbott, Hockey Stick and Darth Minchin talk. Makes my day
Rudd should have went harder on this plan and he hit the nail on the ehad when he described that every Hospital waa to get a board of at least 10. But then he dropped it???? That 750 hospitals and 7, 500 more administrators. Always looks good to punters (not). Another free kick squandared.
Now the Mad Monk is on to it and is trying to fix it up. C’mon fellas this was an easy one and it was let go to the keeper (I’m loving the analogies
)
Just a point on Galaxy and MOE (from a long time lurker, first time poster) in the fine print of every Galaxy poll prior to this one (I haven’t been able to find it this time) they say somthing like ‘this poll was conducted on a sample of x voters and weighted to reflect yada, yada’. However, there is a key word missing here and that word is ‘random’. If the sample used by Galaxy is not a random sample (and all the other pollsters are very clear that they use random samples) then you cannot quantify the error. A margin of error (which is actually the sampling error) can only be calculated on a random sample. So all of you who are dubious about the robustness of Galaxy are right – a non-randomised poll is rubbish.
279 Julie Says: October 19th, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Never use the box above the line (and we are talking about the senate), fill in every box. That way you KNOW where your vote is going.
Senate for me will be…
ALP (number every box)
Green (number every box)
Democrats (number every box)
…
… (all the other ones that make up the numbers)
…
Nationals (number every box)
Liberals (number every box)
Family First (number every box)
Hanson (number every box)
Usually there’s a total of about 70 nominations.
I understand that a lot of people will choose similar to what I’ve done, except reverse the Greens and the ALP.
I’d like to hear some attacks from Faulkner. Also think McMillan is a good option along with Tanner. Spread the load a bit.
Gecko,
would that be McMullan?
.
.
Now we have childish mathematical games trying to pose as serious comments. Give me a break.
290
Oops. Lucky I’m not a bank clerk!
Paul K,
Whats happened ? Have you been hitting the partisan juice again? Your posts have become very belligerent (for you) in the last week. Everything alright?
Well the problem with the Coalition hospital plan is one of numbers:
10 ppl on each hospital board… and they would require at least 5-10 ppl as admin support (maybe much more depending on the size of the hospital). So I think you can safely say that it’d be adding an extra bureaucratic layer 0f 15,000.
Further, I’m living in a decently sized country town… and I can tell you it takes about 3 weeks to get a good bead on who the town likelies are… As soon as the Coalition mentioned their hospital plan, I thought of around half a dozen ppl who would be standing with their hands up, yelling ‘me, me, me!’. No doubt, worthies the lot of them… but the local real-estate agent who has dreams of becoming mayor in 2-3 years doesn’t know much about hospital admin. I wouldn’t feel more secure with him being on the board. It’s a crazy plan. Health is too important to leave up to enthusiastic amateurs.
Yes,Faulkner is incisive and a great intellect….maybe on ice as one of the BFGs.
or to Labor bureaucrats.
Megan @ 295 – I take it that’s an old “Doom” reference?
no labor bureaucrats… non-partisan the public service … oh! damn! that’s right, John Howard was elected… he changed all that didn’t he!
Making little kids cry….not a good sight
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22613336-12377,00.html
Quite what is the point of this article by Tony Wright?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/pms-fans-go-the-whole-hug/2007/10/18/1192300954624.html
Do we have any empirical evidence on cuddle polls. Is this their first preference for a nuggle or is it a case of if you can’t nuggle the one you want, nuggle the one you’re with?
Is this an area Kev should be worried about?
An old favourite!
Mr Rocket, A small dip in the still v.high polls and you all get very surly very quickly. It will still take a “Medicare Gold” to blow the election for Labor I think.
It seems that Crikey.com.au scored yesterday as a narrow win for Labor, I guess because the announcement that housing affordability is the lowest it has been since 1984.
http://www.crikey.com.au/Election-2007/the-daily-verdict.html
Most likely the government will win today based on the reporting of poll results. If Rudd announces his tax plan this afternoon then that should shift it back his way, because it will probably be the dominant story in the widely read Saturday papers.
Labor primary on 48% and they’re meant to start worrying? Wake me when the Libs are evens on primary – then they’re in the game.
Clearly Labor wants to turn the long campaign back against Howard. Howard figured Rudd would run out of puff and has set off at a pace like the Hare. Tortoise Kev shuffles off slowly and allows the Libs to sprint away and expend their best stuff early, no bother, he has a teflon coated shell. I don’t think we’ll see too much this weekend, or in fact next week. It’s a looooong campaign and when you start from as far in front as Rudd, you can afford to cruise early. Let Howard spend all his money in the first fortnight. Rudd will then have a whole month to overwhelm the election with ads and announcements.
The election doesn’t really start til November. The 7th should be a fun day.
I find it hard to believe any tax plan release from the ALP could be much of a surprise at this point.
I think it will, because it won’t be an identical plan, which makes it an easy story for journalists to write about, i.e. emphasising the differences.
Red wombat (#299) – is this the 2007 “Children Overboard?”
Re PI @ 288,
Almost the same as yours – I will be voting Greens in the Senate and ALP second. I definetely agree with the order of your bottom tier though
:)
Hmmm.. a few ideas:
1. Tony Abbott is a dill – I never know what he is talking about. Even after I’ve asked him the question.
2.Conscripts to Iraq – I doubt this will happen, especially in large numbers. The contracting scene there is cheaper per soldier, no on-going costs when maimed or killed. Contractors come from anywhere, especially from rejected regimes (no left/right bias shown). Plus Aussies can now take a year off and get some Army skills and then go contrating in Iraq and other locales.
3. Joe Hockey is fat – he really should lose some weight, it’s just not a good look.
4. What is it that Howards sons do, as well as a few other Liberal Loose-outs – refer to 2.
5. What ever happened to Peter Reith? Did really become the Grim Reaper?
6. Who is Unity Resources Group?
Red wombat @ 285… That thing is so stupid… but so funny and strangely satisfying…lol
93% Lab 7% Lib 4 me… Whats your highest?
Kevin Rudd calls a news conference for 2:15
I broke my mouse smashing Howard
I just get sick of the media – I mean – really sick of it…
The GG ‘Abbot waters down hospital plan’ Not the government, not the PM, not John Howard… but Abbot (not even a minister) the Coalition is doing an about face! it’s so obviously policy on the run… it’s so obvious that they have no policy… making it all up as they go along… and yet, the media will allow him to get away with it – it’s just a minor correction afterall. Could you imagine if Labor was to do a similar minor correction?
It’s always been like this – the MSM save their biggest bias for the period where it makes the most impact – campaigns. Fairfax can be all even handed for 2 and 3/4 years… but come campaign time… you know who they’re supporting!
… and yeah, I’m not worried by the latest polls, not yet. I do worry about the consolidation of oligopolistic, plutocratic control of this country.
Er, no.
The last Galaxy/Nielsen poll average would have been 55/45 from early October (ACN taken Oct 4-6).
That represents an approx fall of about 0.1% per day, although given the MOE it may well be a rise over the same period.
Try again.
If its a tax plan at 2.15 I hope he doesn’t forget pensioners. My mum is doing it tough.
Much as I admire you principled voters, if there was one Senate seat to be filled and the choice was a Lib or a FF, I would prefer a FF candidate for pragmatic reasons…
Well, what else do you expect from someone who was the boss of a student union? You know what all those unionists are like, you’ve met one, you’ve met them all.
.
.
Edward,
Can’t help it. Ever since the Senator gave Glen that promotion and let him wear the chicken suit I’ve been hitting the ‘Howard’s End’ wine bottles.
That would be good politics, saying they will defer tax cuts for the $150,000 tax bracket, but instead give pensioners an extra $20 a week.
Just so no one is confused, I am waiting with a baseball bat for the Prime Minister. Someone has got to do it.
“…free character assesment…” great stuff:
Ms Gillard today said that Mr O’Connor, who has held the Victorian seat of Corio for 14 years, had also said some supportive things about Labor leader Kevin Rudd.
“This isn’t unknown in Australian politics that people become disillusioned with the political parties that they’ve served,” she told Southern Cross Broadcasting.
“I mean, (former Liberal prime minister) Malcolm Fraser is frequently in the media, every second day, giving John Howard a free character assessment which he probably wouldn’t like.”
Oligopolistic and plutocratic are quite discombobulating.
Someone has to lead the way and it may as well be me. Is there anyone else out there with a baseball bat?
Chris B
We’re in Australia. Make it cricket bats.
Anyone with tots – Keep them away from Liberal Ministers.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22613341-2,00.html
Well said John Rocket. The main reason that Howard got elected in the first place was because the media turned con Keating with a vengeance. But now we can’t even rely on the ABC to be impartial.
Its not much of a democracy when the media cheerleads for one side of politics.
309 Observer Says: October 19th, 2007 at 1:12 pm
You shouldn’t insult the future leader of the opposition like that.
Got my Nulla Nulla ready
Chris B, mine is a cricket bat.
I’ve got a blow-pipe…….no comeback for him
Will a golf club do?
Cheer Up Dudes,
Even Labor will find it hard to blow it from here! Your still in front by the proverbial mile.
Although I do have a sense of trepidation about the tax policy, presumably Swannie has had a hand in it.
Mine is better than bats etc., it’s a vote.
A vial of Holy water and wooden stake.
Megan, golf-clubs are fine, especially wedges. Probably best of all would be star-pickets.
Edward, I’m beginning to really warm to you. A realistic coalition supporter. Go figure. We should have him stuffed.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/labor-tax-policy-due-out-at-215pm.html
Steve,
Maybe Turnbull can get a gig on Halloween scaring the kids.
Chris B – 323 – “ME TOO!!!”
Hee. A dog – named Rupert – wearing a “Kevin07″ T-shirt pooping next to Krudd. Says it all.
Poor Kruddy’s been dancing to the PM’s tune all week. First he agrees to debate Mr Howard on Sunday, now he’s been forced to release a tax package weeks earlier than he intended. Bozo.
Cricket bats and golf clubs at my house
Reminds me of a dog I used to have many years ago when I lived in the US. I was able to teach her to “speak” by using the words “Republican”. So when ever there was news on the TV dominated by the Republicans, I used to have her barking at the TV on command 
Howard, due to the state of the polls, was forced to release his tax policy early. So who has been forced into action again?
Ok, I’ll try this again. Headline: “Turnbull’s Spins Sends Kids Overboard!”
judy, the dog in my house responds rather loudly to “where’s the rat?”
Morgan poll out (a phone poll) — surprised noone has mentioned it yet … poll was taken Oct 17/18.
ALP leads 55.5/45.5 on 2-party preferred.
Primaries are 45/39.5, with ALP dropping 4.5 points from last poll.
Interestingly, “think will win” drops to 55.5% for Labor (from 62%). A few nervous nellies out there!
ooh, apologies, julie!
Good one, Optimist……!
Sorry, make that 55.5/44.5 TPP.
Could have been worse. Could have been a Murdoch called Rupert.
problem with delaying the release of your tax policy is that it might get trumped by bigger news like “Charges against Cousins dropped”
Wasn’t it W C Fields who advised never to work with animals and small children.
From Morgan:
I think that just about sums it up. Rudd and Labor have done pretty much nothing recently.
No worries passthepopcorn
:) …. Judy is in the Adelaide area and I don’t know if she has a dog but she certainly shares in our left wing thoughts 
:)
GG,
good advice wasn’t it – given the make-up of the coalition frontbench, it’s advice the electorate would do well to heed.
I’m just not sure which category Tony Abbott falls into; animal or small child?
Morgan shows that Coalition primary vote has not changed. Labor has lost primaries to the minors – the opposite of ACN. I wonder who is correct?
Still a comfortable win.
When is Sky News going to start promoting the Rudd news conference in the same way they promoted Costellos news conference, which turned out to be a release of a bloody negative ad campaign?
Megan,
thanks. I thought it was a pretty good line.
If the networks have the footage, it’ll be irresistable.
Optimist,
It is very hard to tell with those patented Dumbo ears.
598 people in the Morgan poll. That’s not even worth looking at.
Looking at the tables a bit more … L/NP primary is unchanged from
the previous F2F poll (39.5%) … so the 4.5% drop in ALP primary has gone entirely to minor parties.
Morgan has stated that preferences were distributed according to the 2004 election. However, if you use the table of 2nd preferences that Morgan publishes (last updated on the Oct 13/14 F@F poll) and derive the TPP vote from these figures, then the ALP TPP vote rises to 56.2%.
An amazing 95.5% of Greens voters said they would preference the ALP ahead of L-NP. Given that their primary vote has risen to 9% … their votes could be valuable in deciding a few close seats on polling night.
Let us not discount the grossly underestimated Nats vote however, eh Glen?
I’m saving mine for a number of the MSM, way overdue. They have and 11 year debt to pay off.
Eden-Monaro definite gain for Rudd – so says my mum!
She’s an aged care worker on the NSW south coast (Bateman’s Bay to Merimbula, and primarily with privately-run facilities too) – the retirement coast – and speaks with many older, welded-on Liberals every day. She reports all – repeat, ALL, – the oldies she has spoken to are now voting for Rudd.
Reasons vary – lies, tax cuts but no services, health and hospital system, worried about their kids future, the environment and, get this, many say union-bashing!
Many Liberal oldies, she reports, still believe in the unions, not for themselves so much, but for their grandkids. With workchoices and no support for unions, they feel like they wasted their votes over recent years. (more deathbed conversions?)
The South Coast is LNP and One Nation territory normally, which, along with Cooma region, balances Queanbeyan out a bit for Eden-Monaro. But if they’re moving to Rudd along the retirement coast in this demographic then the LNP are no hope in this electorate. NONE!
Boss at work who frequents north NSW coast says similar pattern is there too. Things looking real good in NSW!
What do you bet there’ll be a nice little sweetener in Rudd’s tax policy response and then a bigger boost later to aged care/health care for aged?
gg,
perhaps its a bit of both – animalistic manchild might be a good descrition.
55.5/45.5 is what all the pundits have been saying is about right. Morgan may well have picked the movement early as they claim, but they’re a bit all over the shop at the moment, and that isn’t likely to alter.
Lionel that would be great! It seems every seat I move into turns Labor.
Pity I didn’t stay in Curtin long enough.
3 polls and three times where the swing is less than the MOE.
Hatrick
Labor’s primary of 45 on the Morgan phone poll is the lowest since Rudd was elected leader.
It seems undeniable that there has been a shift away from Labor in the past week or two. That’s because they haven’t really done anything to catch the media’s attention for the past 2-3 weeks, whilst Howard has hit the headlines several times.
Pancho @ 278
Skynews makes audio podcasts available and selected recorded video via streaming.
Go to www2.skynews.com.au/podcast/
I can’t see any live broadcasting via the net.
Ltep, I’d be willing to chip in if you fancied a move to Menzies.
360
Mum’s are seldom wrong.
Kina,
can i join you in that? You can have Ackerman, Bolt and Albrechtsen if i can have Henderson, Shanahan and Chris Mitchell.
We’ll wait until they’re all sobbing and huggin each other as they bemoan the political death of their conservative messiah and then we’ll clunk all their heads together like the three stooges (of course in this case, there’s six of em).
I thought vegetable …cauliflower-fitted the bill.
Don’t forget Milne Optimist.
Not the least of which will be Wentworth
….. Anyone know if Peter will campaign for the Labor candidate in Wentworth? 
My brother says that Tony Abbott looks like the F.A cup. “Of course”, he says, “I don’t mean the Football Association Cup, I mean the F*$#%ng Ars#$*le Cup.”
He’s a subtle fellow, my brother.
14 mins to go. Fingers crossed.
Gecko,
I’m waiting for Milne to slink off and work as Press Sec. for opposition leader Costello. That’s when the time is right to ping the poison dwarf. Besides, did you see Insiders on Sunday – I would never hit a man wearing ladies glasses. I believe Milne’s specs come from the Gloria Vanderbuilt collection (obscure Seinfeld reference for anyone who’s interested.)
Ashley @365
45 primary is not the lowest recorded for labor by a Morgan phone poll this year. Laboor got 43.5 in a phone poll in june
Ashley…….the assumption with some is to view polls like a sports game where points gained somehow cannot be lost. Its better to think of them as metres gained within a game of football…..they are transitory since they can be lost and the other side easily win them back.
Of course the libs have got a small bounce out of the cash give away of the last week….who would have thought otherwise given that a good proportion of the swingers who influence polls are hip pocket nerve driven. The 48 primary voters holding onto Labor now are there for the long run and won’t be lost easily. A high proportion of the recently departed swingers will return when Labor counter – at the moment they’ve barely left the dressing room. I still think that a 12 point TPP result going into the election will be not far off….
The myth of Liberal economic genius
I agree with the comments of others that the poll results are really quite good for Labour. Howard has gained a mere 2% in the polls since the big tax announcement where he is giving us some of our own money back, and not according to who needs it or who earned it. But there is still a lot of room to undermine the myth that he is a good economic manager. He has just been lucky. The world economy has been having a “good” decade, and Australia has benefitted from the foresight of BHP and Rio Tinto, who have cashed in on a resources boom and given the Commonwealth enough surplus revenue for Howard to potentially buy his reelection. Afterall, if they are such great economic managers, how come they wound up with so much more revenue than expected? Were the budget forecasts wrong?
There is a story in the current on-line edition of the Economist that proves the point. It has an excellent graph of world inflation (averaged for 13 industrialised countries) since 1971. Notice two things: world inflation was high when Australia had 17% inflation, while world inflation is now very low – Australian inflation is now amoungst the highest (i.e. we are doing poorly on inflation).
http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9972381
So what is the bottom line? Economically, things in the world now are about as good as they are going to get. It may not last. If Howard spends all the surplus on tax cuts and pork, how much higher will interest rates go, and how do we manage in a bust?
Mikem, I can’t see that in their list of poll results (on the latest poll page). But I do see a 43.5 primary vote in January that I missed.
Paul K @338: That Halloween gig’s already taken, by Hockey.
Unions! BOO!
Interestingly in that Morgan poll (small sample and all) – corresponding with the riase in belief that the coalition will win is a drop in the % who think Australia is “heading in the right direction”.
I thought that Australia was moving about 2 cemtimetres per year north towards Papua NG – is that the direction they’re talking about?
Econocrat:
No, Hockey has the Santa Claus gig.
Predictions on the amount of times Hockey will say ‘union bosses’ in his debate? I reckon at least 10.
Hockey will clean up if he’s on a AWA even he admits to much!
I think Morgan may be irrelevant during a campaign except to confuse people.
Yes it is quite interesting that the LNP primary was stuck low. Interesting to see the ALP vote probably strong – simply switching between Greens.
It does show a strong flow of Labor primary to the Greens. A movement from ALP to Green.
So then does it mean in this Neilsen the cause of the Labor’s primary increase is not from the Greens [against the flow] but might be 1% from the LNP? AND the Green lost 2% (Dr wives?) back to the LNP.
But this is a Morgan.
Optimist
Did you know that Kevin Rudd is Chris Mitchells sons Godfather. (think I said that right)
Sean @ 380
Well that would be a bit silly, because in that case Labor would already have won. In fact, if nobody was allowed to go backwards then the polls would never move at all.
I think it’s more common for people to read statistical noise as a significant poll movement. In this case though, there are now three polls indicating a movement towards the government. I’m not saying that this will continue, or cannot be reversed, but it’s not a great start for Rudd. But it is only to be expected given he has disappeared from the headlines for the past few weeks.
According to Morgan the ALP has lost 9% on primaries in about three weeks. Not plausible.
Okie dokie… is anyone going to give us a running commentary once Rudd’s news conference starts?
Confrontation between Howard and the Chaser boys: LMFAO
http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/homepage/video/20071019-chaser-raw_video2.flv
What a bizarre Morgan Poll. According to the latest, ALP primary down to 45% primary – but LNP unchanged, completely static, unmoved on 39.5%.
There’s something strange about it. Minor parties benefit from election announcement?? Am i reading it right?
If Pay TV are not going to be fair in their coverage of the election I’m going to stop paying for it.
In fact the whole media are a joke. Why bother having an opposition if they are not going to get a fair go. Why should someone enter politics if they are not going to get a fair go.
Why have an opposition? Why have an election? This is becoming as sickening as 98 & 01.
At WORST Keating should have lost in a photo finish and Beazley should have won BOTH times for sure.
The ABC news website has started a live broadcast of the ALP tax policy announcement at http://abc.net.au/streaming/networktv.asx
Nothing’s happening yet, just setting up the cameras and audio equipment.
Ashley……yeah probably badly phrased but my point is to say that the way polls are read is ’silly’
Rudd will have to win in the face of a generally hostile media. They’ve been pretty hostile throughout most of the year, but are really increasing the intensity of late.
Notice how the so called debate is stacked with Howard sycophants.
The ABC at least should be broadcasting Rudd’s news conference …. just outrageous!
What has happened to OUR broadcaster and “A Fair Go’?
Howard’s attack on the Chaser boys was classic and it could win some votes too…
He seriously smacked them down big time….”You blokes are a lot funnier when you pick on someone who’s alive!”…
Centre you should be happy you have ABC who regularly support the ALP but lets face it we all hate any bit of criticism of ‘our’ side its just the way we are…and Rudd has had a golden run with the Media it doesnt matter how much he stuffs up they are there to blow it over and forgive him so i wouldnt be complaining one of the main reasons Labor is so far ahead is because the media have given KR a dream run plain and simple…that’s what happens when you dont have any scrutiny of the opposition.
You will find it on:
abc.net.au/news
The Howard supporters claim that Rudd is a media darling and they are too soft on him. The Labor supporters claim the media are Howard sycophants and are terribly biased against Rudd.
I’m confused… which is it?
Thanks Yoyoma….false alarm!
Questions on conduct of polls.
1. QA: Who QA’s/audits these polls in terms of responses. What I’m getting at is where is the actual evidence that these were conducted. I know this sounds like a mass conspircay theory but how do we verifiably know that these were responses.
2.Sample selection. I think I know these are supposed to be randomly selected but how do they make sure there’s an even spread of electorates?
Sorry for the obvious nature of some of these. I’m new
Julie, yes i’m in Adelaide and we have two dogs, one’s a very intelligent blue heeler cross names Charis and the other is an exceedingly stupid maltese terrier named Sacha, she’s so stupid she has no taste and would probably be all over Howard if he called around, she sell herself for a couple of hugs,but Charis now–she would eat him at the slightest command, i groan every time i see him on telly and she whimpers and growls in sympathy pmsl.
ive got a piece of a goalpost to whack Howard with, a very precious piece of a goal post, many moons ago, when my footy team West Adelaide lost the grand final, their last kick had hit the goal post so they only got a point rather than a goal so a few sneaky westies snuck into Adelaide oval and chopped down the offending posts, my relic will be just right to swing at Howard and co.
Ashley
re: labor 43.5 primary in Morgan Jun ph Poll. Here’s the link:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4177/
An interesting point about the Morgan poll is that they publish figures on “strong” and “soft” voters for the majors. This is based upon how those polled answer the “right or wrong direction” question. For example, people who think we are going in the right direction but are voting for the ALP are “soft” ALP voters.
Anyway, the coalition’s 39.5% primary vote is made up of 30% strong and 9.5% soft voters.
The ALP’s 45% primaries are made up of 27.5% strong and 17.5% soft.
I’ve said before that I’m a believer in The Narrowing. Although I have issues with the methodology, I consider that these figures provide some support for the proposition that the majors are more likely to move closer together rather than further apart…
Sean,
yes I know. Very scary if you ask me. Actually, the scarier thing is knowing that Chris Mitchell is reproducing – uggghhh.
Swans there must be tax
http://www.youtube.com./watch?v=KHPij5Q9geQ
The Rudd Report
I generally have no problem with ABC coverage (though I only look online and TV, don’t listen to radio).
Wow Glen, there’d be heaps of votes in that killer line. Wit like that’ll probably get him a gig as a standup comedian after he gets tossed out.
Stop your bitching Labor supporters….did the free to air networks televise Howard’s tax package NO! So take a chill pill!
If that is true then Chris Mitchell is another gutless turd who puts murdoch before mateship aka Hockey attacking Rudd’s wife.
I’m hoping the tax cuts made a big impact on Mon, the 1st day of Galaxy and ACN polls. Since then, I think the impact may well have decreased, as Morgan ph would suggest, as it was taken Wed/Thur. Newspoll on Mon will either confirm or deny that hypothesis.
3 core measures in the tax plan.
1) Introduces 50% education tax refund for investment in kids education. 2.3b dollar education tax refund. Structure: if family is eligible for FTB A then submit claim for 50% refund up to $750 outlay for primary school kids. For 2ndary school – up to $1500. Eligibility for all parents eligible for FTB A – 2 million kids.
OMG…. Labor is offering 68 billion in tax cuts.
2nd measure:
6 year tax reform plan. By 2013, flatten income system, reduce number of rates from 4 to 3. 40%, 30%, 15%.
Lefty E @394
Looks like you are comparing the latest Morgan phone poll with thier previous f2f. The last phone poll was LNP 36 LAB 50
2nd reform would benefit most those on middle incomes.
Yoyoma… this is sounding good. Keep it coming. There is no “me too” here. This is “me better”.
Gggrrrrr,
someone get me a telly!!!
3rd measure:
Health reform plan. Create national elective surgery strategy to reduce waiting times across Australia.
Dedicated fund for negotiating payments with states conditional on reducing waiting times.
ooooh baby!
Summary
1. education tax refund system
2. flatter tax system over 6 years, only 3 brackets
3. contribute to reducing elective surgery waiting times.
isn’t point 2) just copying the govt’s plan?
Wow.
thats not ‘me too’.
Thats actually something quite different.
zomg flatter tax system plus services…ooOOoooOOOoo
Cuts with a plan…
413
Glen,
Maybe that is where they SHOULD be aired ….free-to-air….more democratic.
Ye of little faith – of course Rudd had a plan all along. Don’t underestimate the Ruddster. He’s a clever little pixie.
its already up on the GG
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22613427-601,00.html
It’s definitely not me too…. I also saw BBerg headlines suggesting the tax cuts for the top brackets are defrerred..(no details sorry)
Labor will be supporting government proposals except not the highest income tax bracket cuts which will fund the 3 aspects mentioned earlier for a total of additional $2.9b.
I haven’t really got any idea of the detail (not watching), but I like the general idea:
Don’t just give tax cuts — make them health and education directed tax cuts.
That paints Howard as simply throwing money around, and Labor as actually doing something intelligent with it.
Rudd is back in the game. This will dominate the media this weekend.
$31.4 billion in tax cuts
$31b tax cuts comprising stage 2 listed above.
What the hell does a tax policy have to do with reducing elective surgery waiting times or is this the unholy mutation of fiscal conservatism and socialism…
Thank you for the updates Yoyoma. Sounds great!!
Glen
funding services son
what taxes are for…
duh
So Labor dropped the tax cuts for people earning over 180k and is using the $2.9b saved in doing so to fund education tax refund and set up a fund to encourage states to reduce elective surgery waiting times across Australia. Other tax cuts are in line with the Coalition’s.
Any criticisms people? I’d like to hear how the Libs will attack this (which they will do).
It’s the general vibe Glen – Rudd has a plan, Rudd tax reform, Rudd hospitals, Rudd education, Rudd Rudd Rudd. That’s all the punters will take in on the TV news. That’s all that matters.
Labor will submit plan to the treasury for assessment in the near future.
Policy is in line with the ALP education revolution strategy.
Finding ways to creatively use the tax system to help families improve their childrens’ education.
Thats a classic – postpone the high income tax breaks to fund the rest of us…. thats a point of difference, how do you attack that?
paladin @ 404
If you mean, how do the market research companies know that their interviewers really have conducted their interviews and not just made up the responses? the answer is that supervisors from the market research companies make confirmatory telephone calls to a sample of the respondents to verify that they really spoke to the interviewer. If you mean, how does anybody else know that the market research companies aren’t just making up the whole thing? I don’t think there’s any direct confirmation. However, if they did do this, they would probably get a substantial number of obviously wildly wrong results, and that would destroy their credibility and hence their business. Which is, of course, why they check up on their own interviewers in the first place.
The samples are not, in the strictest statistical sense, random. They come closer to what a statistician would call ’stratified random’. That is, the pollsters try to get, as near as they can, a random sample from each of a pre-defined number of sub-groups: that is, for example, they might try to sample equal numbers of men and women (I always had to do this when I worked as a market research interviewer myself). For political polling I would guess that they try to get samples from different States and perhaps different parts of the State in proportion to population (or voter population) but I don’t know the details.
I haven’t seen the detail on where the brackets fall….
I saw the 30% bracket would be 30K to 180K.
That does reduce the “progressive” nature of the system a bit, though the stratospheric salaries still pay more.
Rudd with laptop – “Toolbox of the 21st century” Very good image.
Kev with props! Wait to see photos tomorrow with Kev and a laptop. ‘The toolbox of the future’.
Yeah, I didn’t buy the idea that Rudd hadn’t already got a tax plan ready. That suggestion was just ridiculous.
OK, here the ALP tax news:
$31b of cuts, same as government, except no cuts for those over 180k.
Accusing govt of “me-tooing” on the ALPs 2005 proposals for low income rebate.
Other $3b of saving goes to:
- reduced elective surgery waitlists
- education tax rebate for paretns with kids in school; up to $375 for Primary, and $750 for secondary. can claim it on home computer etc- links with broadband.
In sum: modest , safe, neutralising package with a couple of sweeteners. Maybe some tinkering with LNPs rates (ALP says 15, 30, 40 , flat three levels only within 6 years). Not sure whether that is different or not, to be honest.
Tis a good initiative. Howards went down quite well, perhaps Newspoll will show how effective Rudds has been in returning the waverers. Time will tell.
It’s just me too with a coat of paint. Sad decline of a once great party.
The general vibe is Howard is coming back which will dominate the news tonight not Rudd’s immitation tax ‘policy’ that destroys the incentive to make money by taxing the well off and not giving them a tax cut or substantially reducing the tax rates…
The punters already like Howard’s tax policy not a socialist mismash trying to act like a tax policy…you ought to be shaking in your boots Costello will rip this horse brained plan to shreds!
Have been working on education tax refund for 4-5 months.
Q:Are tax cuts inflationary?
A: Since you’re investing in productive capacity – no. Plus there is a small saving overall against the Coalition plan (several hundred million dollars).
This is what I think they should have done immediately after the government announced there tax cuts. I’m not sure why they didn’t make a bit more noise about it then.
ESJ, put that wedge down!
When does Newspoll ask their questions? Today and tomorrow?
Rudd-o-lution
Thanks for the running commentary.
Great that emphasis back to education,hospitals…and not cherry-picked.
Watch as discussion of Rudd’s tax plan sinks to the bottom of the news feed faster than you can say “Masterclass”
This is good news. Now I’m definitely looking forward to Sunday. Christ, I need a drink. Well done Yoyama. Cheers.
I sense the Labor strategy for this campaign might be “me better”… ie. wait until the Coalition put out a policy, then release a better one.
This was always the danger for Howard in going first, and now he has copped it.
Watch as both parties now play chicken to see who will release their other big policies first.
Please tell me they will allow the education tax refund to help out all, including those going to private schools, ie to not do the Latham class-war politics?
Rudd is worried about our children being left behind compared to other countries, specifically with respect to information technology education. Education tax refund can be used to equip children with computers and internet.
Will @ 464 – it’s payable to anyone who qualifies for family tax banefit part A
Great stuff – now all the punters need to ask themselves is – “which is more important; your kids’ future or a few more bucks in your pocket?”
V.Poor policy.
No zing in this at all. You can all kiss of the dreams of picking up the wets on this policy.
Thanks Yoyoma, for the link. Great to be able to watch it live. (On the toolbox for the 21st century!)
Labor’s ‘policy’ is not better than ours we can afford tax cuts and a tax policy without lumping health and education in with it…ill bet you the Coalition has separate policies on education and health that we have not needed to put together to reduce their effectiveness if anything this is a hodgepodge policy from Labor that will be as confusing as buggery to the punters…
Sorry to harp on this, but i’d genuinely like to hear the criticisms (LTEP and ESJ i’m looking in your direction).
So far i’ve got
1. Me-too with paint (ESJ i’m going to need more than that).
2. Reducing incentive to earn more (Glen, i’ve often heard this from your side of politics, but i’ve never seen any convincing arguments based in reality (as opposed to the theoretical).
3. It won’t be newsworthy….
Anyone got anything on the actual policy?
Glen, the punters won’t be confused. It’s plain as day, and it’s going to be a winner.
The dangers of being behind and going first pretty well illustrated I think.
LTEP
I’ll dominate the new tonight (greg howard ‘comeback’ will barely get a guernsey), it’ll be all over the newpapers tommorrow and sunday – when most people read them, and Rudd will give it a good tweak on sunday night.
I suspect there’s some wild scenes at the moment in the smirks office as he runs around like a maniac with a sledgehammer in one hand scalpel in the other………Its all good
All the criticism here at work is “he should have spent more on health” type statements.
Oh – and one “But my kids just finisihed!!!”
453 ESJ
Ed – if you’re so disappointed about it – why not get involved..ha!
Seriously though – what’s your critique in relation to the history of the party?
What sort of percentage earn over 180,000? Anyone?
LTEP stop being such a bloody pessimist. You’re really p*ssing me off, much more then Edward and Glen who are open about their prejudices. If you’re really a Labor supporter let’s have a bit of team spirit, pal.
I’m not criticising it. I’m just saying don’t expect the media to give fair coverage over this election. It’ll get basically no coverage, other than a very brief mention on page 12 of a paper and a “Mr Rudd today announced his tax policy, 3 billion less than the Coalition’s” on the news.
Sigh. Don’t you Lefties realise that this is exactly what the Coalition wanted Labor to do? Krudd’s original plan was to release this policy much later in the campaign but the Government’s surprise announcement forced him to put it out now, giving the PM and co. plenty of time to pick it apart.
Besides, Labor will NEVER be able to compete with the Coalition in the area of tax, no matter what the composition of their policy. The simple reason is that their image as poor economic managers means that people will be forever suspicious of their capacity to actually deliver. Remember the L-A-W tax cuts?
Yes, this will get some early headlines but the underlying vibe of the campain is of the PM neatly playing with Krudd’s mind.
Over 180% is a very small percentage – over the yop of my head its about 3%
SJP ( at 251) on behalf of the YR@Work Team makes the ACTU’s criticism of Hockey look like being ‘flogged with a warm lettuce’, as Keating would say. I think Ashley (at 253) has hit on the problem in part, that the ACTU and/or Labor haven’t immediately hit back with an Anti-Work Choices ad like “Protected by Law – no you weren’t – penalty rates, Gone! Overtime – Gone! etc, etc.”. What are these kiddies doing?
I don’t think Kevvie should have given Howard et.al. look at his Tax Policy till Sunday arvo, not this afternoon, if that’s what he’s done – about an hour before the debate would have been just right, to see if he could trap the Rodent on its detail or divert the Right Honourable Rodent from his own narrative. Now the Lib staffers have two full days to tear the Tax Policy apart before the Debate! And this follows Kevvie’s statement that he would ‘go away and study’ the Libs Tax policy!!!! Don’t ’study it’ Kevvie, kick it to death! No more Your Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, or it will kill us with the rednecks in marginals. How about attacking it Kevvie, especially if you intended to announce Labor’s Tax policy today!!
What do you think the redneck ‘Howard battlers’ are going to think of you Kevvie? No ‘ticker’ or worse – to do with lack of genitals.
And I’m a party member – maybe I should resign before I am expelled – what’s that called, doing a Mighell?
Whose responsible for this genius call? Did they blink? Hope it’s not another Anzac Day Massacre! If it’s Kevvie himself, then he’s hit the wall. If not, he’s seriously burdened by incompetent minders.
If The Campaign Team “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory” they’ll never live it down, but their failure will probably not see them sacked, unlike plenty of other ALP supporters, as this gang of drunken sailors called a Government rips up the last of what remains of any ‘rights at work’, if re-elected. I’ll certainly know who to blame for the fiasco if Labor is beaten and so will many other ALP members.
It looks good to me, but tax policy is not what I base my vote on. Best of luck… gee sorry!
What do the mothers on this site think of Rudd’s educational tax incentives?
Glen (470)
Bit confusing to the masses I agree, but the ‘little policies’ for health and education announced today will fit neatly into the health and education policy packages yet to be announced by Rudd.
He’s not stupid – he’s just leaving some ground for the Rodent to ask “is that the best you can do – here’s our package” only to see it trumped, again, by Rudd with further, more detailed policies.
This announcement gives most what they want, including the rich with the top rate coming down, and will be much better for the middle income earners (where the burden of tax appears to lie).
hope they’ve got the costs right!
And if you think the Government’s biggest shot was the tax policy, well, it was just the beginning. Health and education will actually get separate announcements, and not jumbled together in some panicky hodgepodge dictated by a need to say SOMETHING during the upcoming debate.
I need a smoke after that, hang on! I quit years ago.
#482 -
“Whose responsible for this genius call? Did they blink?”
They sure did.
Kina (487)
It wasn’t THAT good!
Mate, I suspect the ALP plans ot spend more tha $400m on health this election. Just a hunch…..
The ALP will have separate announcements on those too!! – But they’re just emphasising that they see the point of taxation is to provide funds for health and education.
Wasn’t that the point of the Coalition releasing the tax cuts so early?
I find this package a bit uninspiring, but it’s a solid safe one that will appeal to voters.
wow Steven Kaye… if you think it’s such a dud announcement you’re certainly posting a lot about it.
Take the rose coloured glasses off Steven. Howard has been comprehensively outmaneuvered. Of course Labor has more health and education as well, but because Howard blinked, they have been able to give almost everyone the same cuts (and can’t be attacked on numbers there) while shifting the emphasis to health and education.
Pancho @ 477
2%
Not exactly swinging voters either I’d suspect.
Darn, “What do the mothers on this site think of Rudd’s educational tax incentives?”
As a mother of a daughter in Year 4, I’m deeply impressed! It won’t affect me personally, because our income puts us well out of the range, but I know just how vital it is for kids to be online, and just how bloody expensive education is these days–even in public schools.
It’s a winner.
Steven’s worried. Posting after posting of crap.
Just to let everyone know… people in my workplace are all talking about Labor’s tax plan to do with the 3 rates. They seem excited?
But seriously – what the coalition going to be able to say, other than “me too”, or “what about the rich”.
Otherwise its effectively costed by treasury, last Monday.
Punters will like the annual computer/ education rebate.
On other matters – I agree with those above who’ve said the ACTU should be ripping Dorkchoices a fresh one live to air nightly. Let get back on message, folks!
re Stephen’s picking it apart.
do we all remember cozzies pathetic attempt of doing this last election when he was given a lesson on budgetary costing on national radio.
He said he put his reputation on the lone and Treasury said there were larger savings not less!!
This mob are too good without treasury to help them
Stephen Kaye
LP health:
1 hospital
750 hospitals
decent sized hospitals
Can it get any worse? If/when the election is lost Tony Abbot will be burdened with a fair chunk of the blame – he’s bloody hopeless.
LP education: again, after 11 years how can any deviation from the status quo be credible?
Just a suggestion.
This is important stuff, so can we lefties just discuss it amongst ourselves for a little while and ignore the spoiling attempts of the other side. We can talk to them again later.
Once again, allow me to remind people of the top four issues of importance as rated by voters in the Newspoll of just a couple of days ago.
1. Health/Medicare.
2. Water planning
3. Education
4. The environment.
Rudd has very neatly come up with a tax plan that compares well to the coalition’s yet has a greater emphasis on health and education. On the issue of the timing – i don’t see any problem with this at all. Plenty of time to sink in before the debate and there is little to suggest that this policy is anything other than carefully crafted. Rudd’s people are handling the news cycle masterfully at this point and seem to be acutely aware of the campaign poll cycle also – very smooth stuff.
The education stuff is in there just to provide a nice segue away from the tax area into the real Labor stengths…
They also pointed out that “becuase our tax cuts are in areas of investment they are less inflationary”.
That argument is true – not sure it completely applies to education tax breaks but it shows that someone with a bit of economic clout is asvising them this time…..
Rudd was knowledgable,passionate and bang on message – its was an education story, a nation building story as well as a tax story. Will dominate Saturday’s media and Sundays columns. Will go down well with the core ALP supporters – and parents.
Will make no difference to the polls – they come and go.It will give him something to say on Sunday night about nation building. Its space he owns.
Glen at 454 costello is an economic fraud there will be little he has to say.
well done team, we’ll see your low tax threshold refund and we’ll raise you education rebate and health.
New leadership vs Go for bust.
Oh and i’ll have a didjaridoo (instead of baseball bat). It will be quite apt and those things are heavy.
J-D at 446
In the late 80s/early 90s I went to uni with someone who worked for one of these companies. The Libs paid for some polling of one of their initiatives – it might have been “Incentivation” or “Its time for plain thinking” or something. He said he didn’t like the policy, and so he was stuffing up the polling to make the Libs drop it. ie. when the odd person said they liked it, he would say the person responded that they didn’t like it. Obviously he couldn’t do that with everyone, but if enough ppl had heard of the policy, he could skew the results somewhat…
I’m sure the polling companies are careful these days – I suspect employees who give statistically unlikely results are closely scrutinised. I would imagine (but don’t know) that they also record telephone interviews, which would make that sort of abuse much less likely.
Why is the policy a failure?
The selfish middle class is the key to JWH success.
“Deferring” tax cuts for those earning over $180,000 will just go down like a lead balloon to these people.
Similarly the education tax refund or whatever goes to FTB Part A only.
Unfortunately those earning over $100,000 in Australia (as a couple) dont see themselves as wealthy. They see themselves as needy. The targetting which excludes those people is just dumb.
People can see and smell the tax cuts. Labor always goes for the half-baked measure. Either you are redistributive or not. Labor has tried to have an each way bet – we are redistributive but only for those earning $180K per year. We want to help families but only certain kinds of families and only with micky mouse rebates. Its all shades of Beazley rejecting the 2005 tax cut round.
Baz, I think you’re putting too much store in it being ‘ripped apart’. Unlike last election when treasury did the dirty on Latham’s tax plan, Labor have appointed a pannel of independant ‘expert’ auditors who, no doubt, have made it water tight. Releasing it now gives it more media exposure over the weekend and only exposes it to 2 days of scrutiny. Releasing it on Sunday would mean that it would have got drowned out by the debate.
Agree,Optimist….steady as she goes.
Enough of the ’shock and awe’.
As a mother, education wins.
Optimist
In terms of managing the news cycle – I totally agree.
The ALP has been working on buttoning each week for some time now, to the extent that some on the right were complaining that it was directly targeting weekend polling. The suggestion was that people poll a little to the left over the weekend, but a little to the right during the week. Maybe that’s so; maybe that’s why the Liberal policy was launched on a Monday to hit the midweek polls?
What day of the week do we vote on again?
I hope someone’s planning it, because from the outside – it looks slick.
From the Australian:
Expect the government to go to town on this.
Middle class on $180,000 a year? Really? Hell I’m poor.
AND of course Labor will have other policies releasea during the campaign -this tax policy is simply to draw a significant difference between Liberal party philosophy [big business] and the Labor party [people].
ESJ, if you think Howard’s ’selfish middle class’ earns anywhere near 180k (per person, btw, thats how the tax scale operates), you’re a bit out of touch mate.
The Ruddster kicks *rse again!
Howard has been trying to copy Rudd’s agenda all year.
Climate Change
Education Revolution
Health funding
States reform
Broadband
etc
Howard is the real ME TOO.
Out of ideas, wrong era, wrong generation, no future.
All that is left is poisonous negative bile instead of a positive vision for the future.
Try and match this kick *rse tax policy.
Leaves Libs and co for dead…
Ed
It sounds like you’re disappointed you’re not fighting an ideologue this time around.
Your “Half baked” might well translate to “middle of the road”?
I must admit I am feeling chipper
Ashley
They can’t because Costello only has goals as well.
Ashley at 512 – I agree the Gove will talk about that – but they said similar things in their announcement…. So it shouldn’t get too much traction.
Rudd with laptop…message of ‘do as I do’, shows he is in touch.
What do you people think “aspirational” means?
There are an awful lot of tradespeople who used to vote Labor who earn that sort of income (180K). They are some of the types of people Labor needs to win. In Lindsay for example a lot of those people like the idea of having moolah.
The problem is because your average Labor MP earns about 100K they think that is too much money.
Whether you like it or not they are the sort of people Labor needs to win over.
ESJ: ‘The selfish middle class is the key to JWH success.
“Deferring†tax cuts for those earning over $180,000 will just go down like a lead balloon to these people.’
If you are earning over $180,000 you are NOT middle class. You are a tiny minority of the population.
Honestly what planet do you live on?!
Finally, something of substance from Labor!
Yes, I’m sure Costello and Shanahan will try to tear it apart, but so what? As long as there are no holes, Rudd is on a winner.
471
thats a pitiful effort at analysis even by your normal standards.
steven kaye-So Team Rodents cunning plan was to launch their tax policy on day 1 in order to flush out the ALP’s policy early in the campaign so they can spend the rest of the campaign picking it apart- Yeah ok
And- theres still more big $$$ speding to come from the Tories that will no doubt consist of more bribes. What a cynical. low, base opinion you guys have about the electorate.
ESJ: ‘What do you people think “aspirational†means?’
It means seeking to have something you don’t have. If you’re earning over $180,000 a year and are still aspiring, then I’ve another name for you.
Greedy.
John Hunt is a Coward.
Never a truer word was spoken.
Forget Kevin07 t-shirts, this the slogan that should be appearing on the t-shirts of all ALP supporters.
“People earning over $180 000″ are middle class: LMFAO
The Liberals on this board never cease to amaze me with the inanity of their commentary
Rudd’s inclusion of the elective surgery proposal AND the education fund in the tax policy announcement was a free kick for Labor.
He gets to announce these policies in addition to the tax breaks for lower and middle class earners while still bringing it in under the LNP costs. this allows him much more money to devote to the other aspects of his health and education policies that are yet to be announced.
You can now expect more money for:
Aged care and mental health care funding policies to get old and mentally ill people out of hospitals;
Childcare policy of some description (including it in the education system or tax deductability?);
Paid maternity leave for all;
Higher education policy (free or massive subsidy for those people studying courses considered to be in the national interest – as decided by his higher education council); and
massive climate change policy.
Anything else I’ve missed?
Rudd was very impressive with his delivery.
confident, concise, serious, humorous.
If he takes this demeanour with him on Sunday night and beyond then the annihilation will be complete.
“There are an awful lot of tradespeople who used to vote Labor who earn that sort of income (180K).”
No there aren’t. There aren’t an awful lot of any people earning that much. Statistically if there is only 2.9 billion being cut from here, given that we’d be talking about large amounts of money per person, there can’t be.
It’s important to realize that if you’re earning over $180k, you still get the tax cuts on your pay below that level. The only difference here is that you still pay the existing rate on the marginal earnings above $180k.
So everyone still gets immediate tax cuts. It’s just that the cut for those earning over $180k is slighter smaller under ALP’s plan than the Coalitions’, with the savings going to fund the education refunds for anyone with kids who receives FTB A.
#520
Yes, Swan mentioned that the Government had ALSO not produced such costings. So I think that they will gain little traction. If any coalition staffers are reading this, I suggest to them that they are very careful in how they attack this policy. If they try to engineer a “black hole” of funding that isn’t real, they add to the perception of playing dirty to win. I think Rudd is onto a winner with this one. He didn’t rule out tax breaks for people earning over $180k (like himself), but deferred them toll the next budget cycle.
The Health stuff was smart, Rudd hinted it was part of a larger package. But it re-enforces spending the surplus on Health not Tax Cuts – which people will like.
Still leaves Labor with a few hundred million up the sleeve as well.
There’s something painfully desperate in the tory posts here. Rudds basically done what your little man has done you gooses -with a couple of gestures toward the feel good service stuff. Are you upset that people on mega incomes miss out..(having had a funding bonanza over the last couple of years) The incentive argument at the top end of the scale is laughable….study after study has shown that people on those incomes a more inclined to work less if given a tax break than work more – they’re already working long hours. Its only on the bottom end that the incentive to work applies.
I wish we had ignore buttons on this blog we could use from time to time to filter out the noise from the dicussion.
I’m still polishing my MSM baseball bat, waiting to see if they give Labor’s tax policy the same treatment as the LNP’s.
ESJ to say that an “awful lot” of tradespeople earn 180K per year is bulldust. The real “selfish middle-class” as you put it earn in the $70K-$120K region.
Howard has been effectively wedged here because people will see that Rudd is committing funds to other worthwhile education and health expenditure. It looks more like a plan and less like a bribe, which is all the liberal policy is.
yup 5 weeks left, lots of goodies to come
gawd..5 weeks….
You’re quite wrong there. Only 2% of the population earns over 180k. “Winning over” (or indeed losing) an additional 10% of these 2% would have negligible effect on the election outcome.
525 –
“steven kaye-So Team Rodents cunning plan was to launch their tax policy on day 1 in order to flush out the ALP’s policy early in the campaign so they can spend the rest of the campaign picking it apart- Yeah ok”
Worked a treat, didn’t it? Face it, the Government well and truly dominated week one.
540 –
And if the ALP dominate Weekend 1 it’s about even. If they then dominate the debate and into week 2….
‘A Turnbull ate my baby!’
well, not quite..
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22613341-2,00.html
I predict Howard will come out and say “Me Too”.
For low values of “awful lot”.
Fewer than 3% of households in Australia have a household income of this level.
Re 439
“Glen Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
What the hell does a tax policy have to do with reducing elective surgery waiting times or is this the unholy mutation of fiscal conservatism and socialism…”
Uh DUH …. if you listened to it, you heard his voice explaining it. Obviously, you didn’t listen. Not that I am surprised. I didn’t listen to Howards either. But you ought not to criticize something when you chose out of your own free will (???) not to listen to it. The explanation was there, you just didn’t hear it. Go and listen to a podcast for your answer ……
God, the labor votes gonna collapse when that critical 2% desert it. And to think of all those poor disappointed aspirational fellows…ESJ you’re a genius
529 Lionel
Pensions
Martin B Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
“There are an awful lot of tradespeople who used to vote Labor who earn that sort of income (180K).
For low values of “awful lotâ€.
Fewer than 3% of households in Australia have a household income of this level.”
How touchingly naive you are Martin B. 3% of households in Australia have a DECLARED income of this level.
180K…quite apart from the fact that if you’re earning in those regions as a tradesperson and paying tax on it, well, you need a lesson on tax anyway.
Me thinks the Lib party told their hacks to try to bury the tax cuts on boards like this.
Yes 540- its fantastic. Now thats out of the way Team Rodent can spend the next 5 weeks telling us about their real strengths in Health, Education, Housing, Industrial Relations, and umm oh yes the Water and Environment. Very cunning.
The question is why is Labor’s education rebate not available to all parents…because Labor will no doubt have quarantined this cash for children going to public schools so those going to private schools will miss out!
Labor could well be going down the road of envy and class once again!
BTW, News Ltd is running an online poll about if you will vote for the ALP now after their tax cuts. http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5007133-5031332,00.html
V.true Glen 552
ESJ If its undeclared then it hardly matters does it…..you’re all over the place
547 Gecko
I thought I had that covered in my “My mum declares Eden-monaro for Rudd’ post earlier.
Maybe something on water might be good too, but the best thing – taking it off unproductive farmers – just gives too much ammo for the rodent. Better to do that when in Government.
Re Will @ 465,
“Will Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 2:44 pm
Please tell me they will allow the education tax refund to help out all, including those going to private schools, ie to not do the Latham class-war politics?”
It is tied to those families who receive FTB A benefits. Matters not where your child goes to school, it is contingent upon the household income. The richer familes don’t get FTB benefits anyways.
Well TC at least the Coalition have a water policy unlike Labor’s leaky pipes policy what a joke that was!
Sean 555
I am not talking about the merits of income and wealth. Its simply how those people see it. Unfortunately Labor is so connected to a world of unions/party staffers/public servants it just doesnt understand anything different at all.
You would have thought KR with his own Evita in the household would have.
The average wage is $49k. You know how averages work ESJ, you add up all the little numbers and divide by the total. $180k is more than x3 this and you think a lot of votes are here. In a pink fit these people will never convert.
As i have said before, the only people that vote conservative are the selfish and uneducated. Hopefully with this tax package many more uneducated plebs will be converted.
The selfish are lost souls
The private schools will miss out! I’m in stitches…..
Thanks for voting, here are the results so far:
Does Rudd’s tax plan make you more likely to vote Labor?
50% (476 votes)
No 49% (460 votes)
Total votes Total of 936 votes
Woo hoo
ESJ, put your funny hat back on. I’m pretty sure the Libs have lost this one – that was a hell of a sucker punch.
Confusion here…
The ABC quotes Rudd promising a
“50 per cent refund up to $750 worth of outlay.”
“The second part of it deals with secondary school, where the same parents would be eligible for up to $1,500.”
The GG writes of Rudd promising:
a 50 per cent refund for every year up to $750 of education expenses for each children (sic) attending primary school.
Labor also would provide a 50 per cent refund every year for up to $1500 of education expenses for each child attending secondary school.
OK, does that mean a maximum payment for Primary school kids of $750, or $375?
Otherwise, the policy is a triumph. Matches taxcuts for everyone under 150k and feeds the difference into the ALP’s major theme of Education Revolution. Neat work.
ESJ If you don’t declare a proportion of your income, I don’t see how you can pay tax on it, thus tax cuts would be of no interest to that group anyway presumably !
Too many labor staffers have that poll on track to look good for Rudd!
I hope Julie Bishop gets stuck into Rudd for his education incentives if they are as appears to be just for public school students and not for private school students after all many parents who send their kids to private schools arent millionaires!
You guys just dont get it.
That tax package will just go over as same old Labor. I am starting to think Labor is going to blow this election … again.
562 Frank,
Most parents will still be at work….give it time.
Steven Kaye @481 – Labor can call on Howard’s ‘fistful of (non) dollars ‘from his Fraser years as a counter to Keating’s LAW cuts (which at least were converted to superannuation contributions). Tories need to remember, Howard has as much baggage as anybody.
Shall I?
Centaur (560) -let’s be kind and say ‘misguided’.
And this is for ANY education….
I haven’t seent the exact detail, but you could probably use it buy school books if you wanted to.
No Class warfare, just the eminently reasonable suggestion that social policy is geared to helping the less well off.
ESJ: “I am not talking about the merits of income and wealth. Its simply how those people see it.”
Yeah, what I’m saying is how they see it is irrelevant. Despite what little johnnies been whispering in your ear (ie poor overtaxed rich people) those on 180 grand and over are not ‘middle class’
Glen, if those families are sending their kids to private schools, then they will get the rebate if they are low income.
How can you complain about that?
I just realised the people in QLD will miss out more on the educational rebate, because primary school goes to grade 7 there not grade 6. I wonder if Bligh will announce the move to making grade 7 a part of secondary education.
Dear oh dear… On the Herald Sun, this is being spun as a “Robin Hood” plan which “Taxes the Rich more”. The commentariat are at their dirtiest again.
That’s more like it!
People prefer to see the money in their own hands .. I think they dont like having it doled out to the “deserving” as identified by Swannie or Medicare Gold.
You really dont understand anybody outside of that magic Labcest circle.
The figures dont really matter it is the philosophy or state of mind it betrays. I see the polls heading to 52/53-47/48 in the next week. Cant the ALP call in someone with brains like Richo to save its campaign?
574 – not low income, income up to $118K p.a. (I think that’s the FTBA threshold)
SMH poll on Rudd’s tax plan:
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/form.html
The Family Tax Benfit Part A cuts out for one child at $97,845 family income. With 3 Kids it cuts out at $155,308.
The Coalition cannot attck it.
Glen – 552
It’s a mistake to assume that only the well-off send their kids to private schools. My wife and I receive FTB A, but we choose to go without some luxuries so we can send our 2 kids to private school. We know others who are in the same boat as us. Believe me, this announcement well play out well in this marginal electorate.
Labor’s tax policy is considered, consistent, and safe. It won’t cost them any votes, and might pick up a few.
The only group who get nothing from this policy are the Coalition.
Actually Ed, the ABS do not use ATO data for their research. But even though you haven’t given any reason for it, you could double this number if you like and the swinging voters in this demographic are still not going to be significant for the election.
Whether people on substantially lower incomes form opinions based on the treatment of this demographic is a more interesting question. But your statement above is nonsense, unsupported by any evidence, and unsupportable.
WA and I think SA & the NT are the same ie K-7 for Primary School. I’m assuming the policy will cover for that point of difference.
And your not biased at all are you ESJ ?
570 Ashley – go on
The MSM will keep using them until their mainstream credibility is 6′ under
God… such fury from the lib supporters over one little policy. If it’s such a dud sit back and enjoy the show.
“Just Me Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 3:38 pm
Labor’s tax policy is considered, consistent, and safe. ”
You bet it is. Nothing visionary about this lot.
Sinic, but no one thinks that they are rich, and everybody loves Robin Hood.
Except for that US Senator in the 50s (from Nebraska maybe?) who wanted him out of high school books because of communist overtones.
Because even parents who are well off spend thousands in school fees that other parents dont have to pay…this is typical socialist crap from Labor and they’ll be torn to pieces because of this class warfare policy!
Glen (552), you’re living in 2004 pal, get with the times.
A day with Rudd
(well he had a day with jwh..poor bastard)
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/minisite/election_article.aspx?id=307303§ionid=6046§ionname=minisiteelection
Bob Brown about to be interviewed on ABC Brisbane radio, streaming on http://www.abc.net.au/brisbane
Got to keep the greens happy.
Yes I agree Glen 591.
We will be watching Costello on TV tonight tear this crap to shreds…bring out the pop corn…
Frank C (562) check those voting figures 5 minutes later…
Well the idiots posting at news.com.au have completely misunderstood the policy. “I don’t have kids, so I won’t get tax cuts.” Lol
The market consensus forecasts have just come out for CPI – 0.8
I think 0.8 would be enough to make the RBA seriously considered raising rates.
We can always tell when Labor has taken a trick because the Liberal orifices here get so shrill and hectoring. Edward exhbit A, Steven K exhibit B, Glen exhibit C (although he’s such a ninny he doesn’t really count). An excellent day’s work by the Ruddster, both in substance and presentation. This should reassure the nervous nellies like LTEP that it’s all going according to plan.
For those Tories that are saying we shouldn’t be using the tax system for funding education, then I have news for you. The one, and only, Jeff Kennett is saying tax money is better spend on… wait for it… ‘education and health’. LOL! It’s funny how past Liberal leaders find a change of heart in retirement.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/19/2063917.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
I wonder if the Young Libs will say Kennett should go join the Greens
Anyway I say hooray for democratic socialism
Will @ 553,
“Will Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 3:29 pm
BTW, News Ltd is running an online poll about if you will vote for the ALP now after their tax cuts. http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5007133-5031332,00.html”
COOL …..
:):):):) ….. .this site is NOT cookie hooked up so you can vote more than once 
… I keep hitting back and forward buttons on the webpages so I can reload it 
… I have already voted 6 times 
….
570
Ashley Says:
Shall I?
Do it.
Glen, I imagine you cream yourself watching your hero Captain Smirky in action.
Young Liberals obviously have nothing better to do than troll on boards like this today: did the Exclusive Brethren give you all the day off?
They are doing the Lord’s Work, HH
Rates Analyst @ 572:
“And this is for ANY education….
I haven’t seent the exact detail, but you could probably use it buy school books if you wanted to.
No Class warfare, just the eminently reasonable suggestion that social policy is geared to helping the less well off.”
Yep. P&C fees, school excursions, sports, textbooks, pencils, pens, calculators, sports, uniforms, shoes, school bags…. At my daughter’s public primary school, we even have to supply a box of tissues and a ream of paper at the beginning of the year, for the class’ use.
If you add up the year’s expenses, it’s really a lot. And we’re middle class (real middle class, not ESJ’s fantasy version). It doesn’t take much imagination to recognise just how valuable this will be for thousands of less well-off families.
Bobby Horry… don’t bother reading news.com.au comments. They’re just filled with party hacks pretending to be ordinary people.
Glen – Cossie might rip into it, but the only thing Julie Bishop will rip is wet tissue.
Glen, there is no hint of ‘class warfare’ about this. It’s about income levels. READ Rudd’s statement. Then read it again, however many times it takes to understand it. Then go pop a temazepam and lie down again.
If the Labor party was serious about wealth redistribution it would introduce a negative income tax not create a bureaucracy to administer a puny tax rebate.
ESJ @ 548 – “How touchingly naive you are Martin B. 3% of households in Australia have a DECLARED income of this level.”
LMFAO! That’s the best yet!
So, under the ESJ fairness test: these “180K middle-class aspirationals” don’t declare the full amount they have earned (basically, tax avoidance), but they should have a right to claim a rebate under Rudd’s plan for what they *should* have declared.
That’s a bit rich (pun intended).
Someone’s rattled…….
Glen @ 591 “Because even parents who are well off spend thousands in school fees that other parents dont have to pay…this is typical socialist crap from Labor and they’ll be torn to pieces because of this class warfare policy!”
What, those would be the private schools that we taxpayers subsidise?
Aw, diddums.
Adam,
Must agree. The shrillness of the exaggerations reminds me of that great Mock Band The HeeBeeGeeBees. Their hit song being “Meaningless Words in Very High Voices”.
What’s this ……………….party hacks pretending to be ordinary people? Heaven forbid.
No, that just doesnt sound right.
This is off-the-cuff shrillness too. Just wait til they all get their faxes from Liberal Party HQ, complete with ‘talking points’.
$10 to the first Young Lib to casually drop mention of an increase of the GST, or Julia Gillards dark socialist past into casual conversation!
Just received talking points from the Senator
+ Suggest Labor will increase the GST
+ Mention Julia Gillard as having a dark socialist past
600
…can almost see them frothing…..such aggression.
If you all thought the Unions were so great how about them putting in the HSC a question asking students to detail the negative impact of workchoices as an essay question for the English Exam…this is typical Union left wing rubbish its crazy that school kids have to put up with getting brain washed by left wing teachers and unions at school they dont deserve this and Labor ought to be ashamed!
589
Edward StJohn Says:
“Just Me Says:
Labor’s tax policy is considered, consistent, and safe. â€
You bet it is. Nothing visionary about this lot.
Doesn’t have to be. Rudd only has to not scare the punters. And he has achieved that, with room to spare.
stop press please,
somebody are lost out in Rudd’s tax policy …
I’m sure the Exclusive Brethrens are not at all happy with Rudd’s tax concession on computers / laptops. Their children don’t use computers. They are not benefit from this spending / funding
Meanwhile
Rudd uses Moisteuriser…and eats Museli
Must be a communist
617 Edward – touche.
God, a labor tax policy announcement really gets the tories gibbering doesnt it. Some of the guff posted here is really hilarious. Hopefully costello’s retort will be as amusing.
ESJ
On a political level I am happy that Rudd has reaffirmed his competitiveness. It is a sad however that our national needs require bolstering in so many sections… Pensioners are really struggling with the rise in the cost of food. Our hospitals and schools etc. are wanting… Indigenous mortally our great shame.
I for one would prefer that confidence in the Australian voter allowed confidence in genuine expansive policy that would unite us for the common good. Imagine the return of free University or free dental care… or perhaps a simpler taxation system that was the envy of the OECD or to become the most advanced country in the world with base-load re-usable energy. So many things to do and achieve.
Regrettably policy is driven today by reactionary fear, innuendo and strategies and is more about tenure of power than good. (State and Fed)… exacerbated by enclaves in a narrow press.
One day this might change. But little by little we progress. Rudd’s tax policy is not earth shattering but the pendulum has moved the right way. IMO.
RA if you lok at the six monthly figures they would have to
Glen: you’ve descended to the level of Steven Kaye. Quite pathetic, you used to be a reasonable conservative.
Better a dark socialist past than a floodlit Tory present.
Adam @ 600 I love it “ninny”. Dr.Smith from lost in space.
Danger danger danger Will Robinson (glen ESJ,and SK)
Hey Glen I went to a private school (1/2 scholarship too) and have 2 daughters who will go private. I’m not rich and I welcome this package.
My daddy (insert southern US accent) is rich over 10mill assets and hates howard with a passion. You see we Greeks hold being the forfathers of democracy hold it more sacred than anything.
Oh and game over by the way!!!!
Nay nay nay
I’ve been waiting for the GST talk to surface
Glen, please try to get your facts right. “If you all thought the Unions were so great how about them putting in the HSC a question asking students to detail the negative impact of workchoices as an essay question for the English Exam…”
It was not asking them to “detail the negative impact”. The question was neutral, and asked about “the impact of government legislation on employees”.
If, as those such as you claim, the legislation is good for employees, then any student answering in those terms and substantiating their answer would have done well. Surely, that would be a doddle, right, thanks to John Howard the Workers’ Friend?
And it wasn’t an English exam. It was Industrial Technology.
I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt and assuming these were honest mistakes on your part, and not an attempt to mislead….
I think Glen’s in a bit of a state……ESJ, maybe you should call in and see if he’s ok
The Senator is rewarding us all with a night off from blogging duty. He is very happy with the first week and especially today’s tax package announcement.
LTEP, I think Glen at 619 wins the 10$ – didn’t get the subjects you nominated but clearly got the fax – turns education back to a “values” issue & manages to drag unions into tax & education.
Detailed explanation of the ALP tax policy can be found at http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/its-out-labors-tax-policy-including.html
Especially of interest is that the 30% tax rate will apply from $37,000 to $180,000. However, under the Coalition’s policy, those earning above $80,000 would actually be paying a marginal rate of 35%.
So for a very large number of people, the ALP’s tax plan is better, even ignoring the education rebates.
Costello News Conference soon.
Howard Hater anytime anybody is critical of Rudd or Labor you tell them they arent a reasonable conservative but whenever have i said u werent a reasonable socialist if you disagreed with Howard or a Liberal policy that is a weak argument to attack someone with and shows how low you are prepared to sink to engage in a debate…i am allowed to have great fears that this is a return of class warfare from Labor and if it is which from first glance it appears to be then it is a disgrace in my opinion!
The use of punctuation seems to be a crime with certain excited posters !
Hehe. Well, I got it up from 51% to 55% before I got bored. It’s fallen back a bit to 54%. I’ve got a quick way of doing it, but I really should try and write a script so I can bang it up to 90% in 20 minutes. Then they would really have a story to write about!
Besides on Friday nights all young Libs go out and become beastly drunk and do disgusting adolescent stuff like throw up in Daddy’s Maserati or push the butler into the pool, as everyone knows.
Lomandra (526)
Very nicely put.
We don’t hear the word “greed” much any more. The conservatives naturally prefer to prattle on about “the politics of envy”.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22613532-2,00.html
love the headline:
‘Robin Rudd takes from the rich’
oooh oooh it hurts! don’t do it!!!
‘The wealthiest Australians would pay $10 a week more tax under Labor than they would under the coalition to pay for the plan.’
You can bet that Costello isn’t going to say “I need to go away and study it before I comment on it”. Rudd should have made some comment on Costello’s plan immediately after it was launched.
$10 a week more? Gee, how will they sleep at night? I know I’d be furious!
Ashley
Get the script ‘out there’ – as I said they’ll keep using them until they’re exposed for what they are
Rudd and company might be getting out a line of “Friend of the Worm” tshirts
….. (I am on the Kevin07 automatic email list) AND if you watch on channel 9 on Sunday nights debate, you WILL get the worm there 
…..
“So make a note: this Sunday, you’ll have the opportunity to watch Kevin Rudd and Mr Howard’s live debate inside the Great Hall at Parliament House. Tune in from 7:30 pm on the ABC, Channel 9 or SkyNews. If Mr Howard has his way, it may be the only debate the Australian people get to watch, so don’t miss it.
Finally this week, our campaign to keep the worm alive and kicking during the leaders’ debates has struck a chord.
On yesterday’s blog Paul wrote:
OK, I’ve got my Kevin 07 t-shirt, but would happily get the credit card out again if you could produce a Friend of the Worm shirt or sticker. What about it?
Paul, we’re not making any promises, but we’ll see what we can do.
In the meantime, we’re pleased that Channel 9 has now decided to allow their own ‘unauthorised’ worm to be heard – with a room full of 90 undecided voters ready to watch the debate and record their reactions from inside the studio.
It’s a nice win for democracy – and only fitting for this most important of elections. Mr Howard might not like it, but he’ll have to face the views of the community on Sunday.
We look forward to reporting back.
-The KEVIN07 Team
Well, there are far worse things he could be called than Robin Rudd. It’s far better than “me too”, which the media has been reciting like a parrot lately.
Tech-savvy and sky followers – is there anywhere to watch the 4.15 Joe Hockey comedy routine online?
The MSM will run Costello’s reply as the headline.
(I will be inscribing MSM names on my baseball bats this weekend
]
Sky news currently showing Costello
Bailey and Hockey was pre-recorded so can be shown anytime today.
Better bloody not interrupt the debate on Sky News between Hockey and Bailey >;-(
ESJ, GLEN, I used to waste my time reading your posts because then I could understand what half the others here were talking about when they were putting you in your (cold, dark, damp) places. No longer. Damn Voltaire. I will be skipping any posts that are headed by your names, or mention your names in them. You have nothing genuine to contribute to this site.
649
..and engraving on Golf clubs….No 1 wood hasn’t seen much action of late!
In fairness to Ed, Glen et al:
There were a fair few posts going around on MOnday & Tuesday slagging the libs policy in a mirror-image way.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.
Not saying anyone’s a goose mind.
Amazing! Glen has been ranting for a while now and still no sign of the ‘hubris’ word. Maybe the Libs aren’t paying commissions and bonuses on it’s usage anymore.
Costello Union Scare – BOOOO
Costello’s reply sound pathetic so far. I don’t think he’s got anything worthwhile to say.
He’s just moving on to attack the unions again.
aw me god the smirk is banging on about 70% unionists in his reply – aghhhhhhh
652 – “Damn Voltaire”. Good band name. Punk band maybe?
Breaking news:
Unions steal tax cuts from hard workers
Ah – we’ve found the “huge hole”. How predictable
655 Paul K
surely labcest caused something today?
hahaha. Ltep, you should try to get the magic 70% in there somewhere though. And maybe commies.
Costello: “Labor’s tax cuts are not deliverable”
Hard to argue I would have thought given that they are less than the Coalition….
Aaaahhh the wonders of the right of response.
This is piss weak stuff.
Burgey
“What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.”
And what’s good for a Proper goose?
When Costello starts talking detail you can see the eyes all start to glaze over. Not a good performance.
Costello: Labor’s tax policy uses the same costigns as the Coalition Policy”
It was clever politically to match the Coalition’s tax cuts in the lower brackets, and erase those in the top bracket. That way they can’t possibly credibly argue that they can’t be funded.
The only thing Costello has got left to attack is the 3 tier system proposed for the future, and as I said earlier I’m sure he’ll go to town on that. It’s all he’s got.
Lets hope he can explain it better than he explained how Labor will make you pay $3000 more for your house a year.
Given he’s had months to study that report and half an hour to study Labor’s tax plan… why should we believe what he has to say?
Costello: “Labor has copied the Government on Tax Policy”
666 (loving that number):
a proper sauce, I suppose.
Costello’s response sounding dire so far.
Just hoping no costing dramas down the track.
Memo to KR: Don’t f*** it up!!!
I don’t think Costello can attack the plan, because it’s HIS plan.
Should provide good comedy on tonights news though
this policy must have been released to coincide with the polls on the weekend.
Hmmm..Newspaper headline on Monday anyone
Costello: “Labor’s tax policy is 91.5% the same as the Coalition’s”
I don’t even know how you begin to quantify that….
675 – That is laughable stuff. He’s gonna get lampooned.
Rudd’s stuffed – smirk says Rudd can’t go it alone without Howard & Costello (metoooooo) being there to copy and in the same breath says the unions will be directing all of Rudd’s agenda – hahahahahahah
ESJ and the poor richest 2% of the population worrying about not getting a tax cut on their undeclared income – truly the funniest thing I’ve read since Douglas Adams died.
Really though Rudd will need to sell it well. Not because there’s anything wrong with the policy, just that there are a LOT of dumb people out there (the quote about some buffoon thinking because they don’t have kids they don’t get a tax cut), and because many of the stupidest people work as journalists (Robin Hood Rudd crap).
Some nice simple tables to show the weekly savings would be the place to start. The poor old folks on more than $180k missing out on a tax cut lie needs to be countered straight away with the fact that they obviously get the largest tax cut because the whole of the their first $180k is taxed at a lower rate whereas the rest of us poor saps in the bottom 98% only get reductions on the piddly 50k we average. They’d show we get the same amount voting for Howard or Rudd until we hit that magic 180K, but with Rudd if we have school aged kids we then get a rebate on all of the school costs. And we get rid of the Rodent – what’s not to love?
Better to talk about medians anyway. The average wage is pushed up by all those multimillionaires. The median is a lot lower, and half the country has to get by on that.
Have Costello on the mute button waiting for Hockey and Bailey.
Can we fast forward to 23 November already? Sheeesh ….. This is like slow Chinese Water torture …….
Meanwhile…here’s our alternative PM in Parliament from a few years ago….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aQ8YiIV1AI
As one poster at Tim Blair’s blog noted – talk about a boring speaker…some guy was eating ear wax to kill the boredom and another woman had set her hair on fire to stay awake.
Priceless!
675 – you’re joking?!
Burgey (672)
There can’t be any costing dramas. The treasury worked it all out and Howard and Costello conveniently presented it to Labor last Monday.
Very generous of them.
Costello’s starting to get some testing questions now and I don’t think it’s going very well for him.
Costello: “Labor would not be able to deliver tax cuts becuase it can’t manage the economy”
for a minute I thought you were saying”This is like slow Chinese Waiter torture …….same thing I suppose.
Liberal: Go for Greed..
“Go for Growth” -
and when you find it – clinically and swiftly have it lanced!!!
Steven Kaye that clip was brilliant nearly pissed myself laughing Rudd eating ear wax lol hahahahahhahahah!
I had to dodge the flying vegetables and squeeze between the Party Corflutes in this blog to get a post in! Shouldn’t you guys be stuffing envelopes or putting balloons around Pantecs right now???
This election is getting harder to call by the day:
1. Labor with a compelling lead (still) on TPP and PPM basis
2. Coalition with a quick and deep cut to margin early
3. Labor needs 16 seats (achievable, theoretically) but yet the marginals in Tas/Qld not uniform
4. No one knows full details of preference deals with Dems/FFP, which is tight marginal contests could clinch a deal. An ALP/FFP preference deal in QLD would almost certainly clinch marginals in doubt for Labor. Dems assistance in Brisbane, Adelaide might also assist GRN preferencing.
5. Coalition has both Costello and Howard to spread the press, Gillard has had an image revamp and has started the cunning tactic of smiling in interviews..
There will be no landslide seat majority in this election and more than most other recent elections, the Senate result may be a main feature of interest for the possibilities of practical/viable government… What a weird election
Rates Analyst: Perhaps it’s the fact that $31b is about 91% of $34b. The extra .5% would be given that the figures I found are rounded off to the nearest billion.
The usual line of cliches from the smirk – like being hit over the head with a feather duster. Hey steven any chance you can head on back over to Tims site. He’s probably missing your incisive analysis
Glen and Steven Kaye
Small things amuse small minds. The rest of us are talking about the future of the country.
No wonder Rudd was driven to eat his own ear wax after having to listen to Albanese make another ranting question in Parliament…
This is gold!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aQ8YiIV1AI
Darn the left keeps calling Howard a rodent that is small minded…so i wouldnt go on about us pointing out Rudd eats his own ear wax LOL!
If you asked people Darn whether people would want to control how their money was spent (tax cuts) they’d like our plan instead of Labors socialist plan in which they decide how ppls tax cuts should be spent!
I know I am biased but, Costello’s delivery was flatter than a nightcartman’s hat. Droning, carping and boring.
Has that look about him that he can see his whole career disappearing down the dunny.
690- they are here to annoy and stymie debate not converse on anything of substance. Young Libs are like that, I mean really these guys think the Rodent is cool for gods sake and believe it without a trace of irony.
GG, the focus groups have probably told him to concentrate on not smirking. He does a very good job at being sombre when necessary. He wouldn’t want to blow the speech by smirking his way through it.
Howard photographed with his lap table. Rudd photographed with a laptop.
Rudd……WINNER!!!!!!
I have to agree with the “Me Tooism with paint” scenario. Of course, the Coalition will be hard pressed to find problems with this policy. The only place they could conceivably find it is in the education rebate and elective surgery waiting list, otherwise you can identify the exact same flaw – if any – in the coalition tax policy.
Rudd eating ear wax, Howard eating an apple…HOWARD the winner!
LOL, you can always see how good a plan is by the fear it creates in those of the opposite camp. Both on here and at all the MSM comment blogs the libs are bashing away like manic frenzied demons trying to counter it.
Rudd will shore up his majority vote with this tax announcement, great stuff.
Glen,
Today is proof that Labor has a wax policy as well as a tax policy.
Child like, Glen.
The question still stands GG whether we want a PM who eats his own ear wax and who doesnt understand the tax rates!
Lovely set of numbers. Again.
And full of seductive charm.
Kids. Education. Technology. Good mind link to Kev’s broadband, too.
Like the way the low income pensioners and those unable to afford private cover, et al, as they await hip and knee surgery, get a nice, juicy health bone up front to chew over, at the same time as the goodies for the working population are presented.
Howard photographed with his lap table.
Rudd photographed getting a lap DANCE.
Rudd is definitely the WINNER!!!!!!
698
…could be eating (humble) apple pie….fingers crossed!
Howard photographed with his lap table.
Rudd photographed getting a lap DANCE.
Rudd is definitely the WINNER!!!!!!
.
.
.
My apologies if that last post offends any of the Exclusive Brethren types on the blog.
On Monday the Liberals gave Rudd a huge number to play with as he sought fit. He’s grabbed it beautifully – and linked it back to the ALP’s core message on education, nation building. There will be no error in the tax numbers – because Costello did the calculations for him. This will stabilize the ALP primary at between 48 -50.
Adam @640
That’s so naff – this season it’s all about throwing up on the _butler_ and pushing Daddy’s Maserati into the pool!
I’m looking forward to the GG Editorial. Apology? Open mouthed admiration and wonder? Over the hastily cobbled together tax plan.
Anyone who reads editorials in the Morgoth press is seriously in need of a life.
The vast majority of the 2?% of taxpayers on more than $180,000 p.a. live in safe Liberal seats, and always vote Liberal. Hence Labor leaving out that part of the Lib’s tax cuts will not affect Labor’s ability to get 16 seats one iota. Smart.
oh hurah, now i can wear my kevin 07 t-shirt with pride. i will wear it at the gym and hope some lib weed says sometthing so i can stomp some skulls.
A brilliant tactical package announced by Rudd and Steven Kaye knows it LOL.
Tax cuts have now effectively been neutralised. Labor will be seen as economically conservative and responsible in which they really are behind the propaganda. Labor will win on health. Labor leads on education. Me-too-ism is the government on broadband and climate change. The nuclear debate is yet to start.
And to come is the ace in the pack,WORK2CHOICES. Rudd has been checking Howard this week, now the pressure starts but don’t go too early, it’s like a Melbourne Cup. The debate, which is yet to come, will be a distant memory by the time it is to vote.
alpal: The Libs jumped the gun with their policy, they should of waited for Labor to bring out their original plan, and then trump them. Now they have a problem, if they attack the overall policy, they attack their own, if they attack the education side then they lose out and if they attack the fact the $180K+ miss out they look like they look after the rich and finally they can’t attack the dropping of a tax rate because it makes it fairer and removes bracket creep.
#706 Paul K Says:
My apologies if that last post offends any of the Exclusive Brethren types on the blog.
EB’s neither blog, use technology or vote.
Big LOSERS!
Peter Costello’s response to the Krudd’s tax plan was just as I predicted and spot on. As ninemsn reports:
Mr Costello said Labor would not be able to deliver the tax cuts because it could not manage the economy.
“Unless you can manage the Australian economy, these tax cuts will not be deliverable,” he said.
“Mr Rudd and Mr Swan do not understand the Australian economy. This is entirely clear from the fact they have spent four days copying 91.5 per cent of our tax plan.”
Mr Costello said the problem with Mr Rudd was he would not be able to follow the coalition’s policies if he was elected.
“He never had a tax policy,” Mr Costello said.
“He hadn’t done the work, five days after our tax policy, his great contribution to the tax debate in this country is to say ‘me too, but’.
“The trouble with ‘me too, but’ is, it’s OK for Mr Rudd to say ‘me too, I’ll be like Howard and Costello and adopt their policies’, but if he gets in Howard and Costello won’t be there writing the policies.
“So who is going to say ‘me to, but’ to them? I think the union movement will be giving him a few ideas.”
Exactly right. It doesn’t matter what the economic bunglers of the ALP announce, there will always be question marks over their ability to deliver tax reform.
precisely Will.
Interestingly, the ALP proposes a flatter tax structure – no 35% bracket.
That puts natural persons on the same level as corporations – reducing incentive for incorporation of individuals, and making tax fairer as between ‘natural persons’ and companies. Simpler. I like it!
On reflection, I think we can conclude it goes rather further down the reform path than the rodent plan!
David Speers can’t help himself. He tried to back up Hockey and Hockey needed it too.
711 I’m calling
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but be careful.
A large chunk of ‘l’ liberals are prepared to follow their social conscience and are giving the ALP a protest vote.
I’d suggest that those on $180K plus might also rank amongst the business leaders who have strongly swung in behind labour in recent months.
Note that Kevin identified himself in this group.
We all want to belong – there’s no need to apply a wedge, however small it might be, to gain support. Political skill involves appealing to different groups in different ways.
When Howard or Costello are paid a bigger salary than the head of Treasury that’s when I will believe that they are the economic managers of the country.
As I’ve posted before, Gary Bruce, David Speers is merely an appendix of the PM’s Press Offfice. The Gallery think he is an idiot. His sidekick – Kiernan Gilbert – is a straight reporter.
Bailey did a wonderful job, Hockey was left in the dust …..
Gary @ 719
How did we do in that debate?
Centre, Con Sciacca was on the World Today comparing Rudd’s Run to the Melbourne Cup. 500 metres in at that point.
Not too late to place your bets, ladies and gentleme, on 07, inside rails.
alpal – do you know that for certain? I wouldn’t be surprised if what you say is spot on. Howard didn’t pick Speers to host the debate for nothing. Was Speers a member of the Liberal Party at any stage?
I am feeling unwell… I think it is withdrawal symptoms.
I have not see “union bosses†mentioned anywhere today
I must be missing something as it has appeared 1000 times a day for the last week.
Maybe the Libs/Nats have grown up.
Narrrrr that cant be right ………….. that is unnatural.
Julie
Any more details?
The minister responsible only for selling workchoices losing his seat send the right message me thinks.
Mike Bailey kicked Joe’s gonads. Hockey is an idiot to do a TV debate with a 30+ year TV veteran.
Be we already know he is.
Bailey is very impressive. Had all bases covered. Very confident.
720
As a small ‘l’ voter who cannot stand by and watch the lack of social justice anymore, I agree wholeheartedly…the ‘divide and rule’ has been too destructive.
The question that should be on every serious liberals mind is why the dominant politictal party since the war is goiing to out of office across Australia at every level. How did the get into such a desperate mess? It is hard to explain, they are led by such a clever politician. It does help to understand why there is such a shrill reaction from those valiant young lib posters to the Ruddster tax policy.
731
thanks Megan – get the word out there
Speers is a hack, Bailey dominated Hockey even though Speers was doing his best for shrek.
Costello looked a total dill trying to find something meaningfully to say, he had nothing other than his usual moaning LOL
Brilliant tactics? Hah! Centre, the momentum is all the Government’s way.
From the PM’s phrase “the right leadership”, to the surprise tax policy on the first day, to lots of images of voters hugging Mr Howard, to the defection of O’Connor coinciding with the start of the Coalition’s anti-union campaign, to news of a surge in betting in the Coalition’s favour, to improved polls and finally to Krudd’s forced premature release of his tax package, Kevni’s been desperately dancing to the PM’s tune.
Rudd is going to offer some ear wax with his tax policy free of charge LOL!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aQ8YiIV1AI
Just one example. Bailey was asked by Speers to refute the 70% union make up of the shadow ministry. Bailey had a list ready and read out their past jobs. Of course Speers steps in and says that that over looks their union membership. Joe needed help.
okay… drinking games for the great debate…
first suggestion: have to skull a beer (any brand except West End) every time Mr. Howard says ‘union boss/official’… any other suggestions
SK @ 735 bodly stated “Centre, the momentum is all the Government’s way.”
Hmmm.. and the past 12 months of momentum and polls?
Labor can’t manage the economy???
Steven, Costello is the greatest L Plater, as Keating correctly said, of all time.
Gary, I have no idea if Speers is a member of the Liberal Party – although I doubt it. Gallery journalists can get into strife with editors and peers if they belong to any Party. I know for a fact that Speers is not highly regarded by the pack – not that he probably cares. There will be a nice job in Opposition after the election if he wants it.
Nice try Steve but no cigar. Glen, time for afternoon tea now. I’m sure mummy has it ready for you.
Steven Kaye (716)
I very quickly learned there was nothing worth reading in you short contributions so I am certainly not going to waste my time reading your long ones.
Glen probably will though – especially if it mentiones ear wax.
May I say, presentation wise, it was a typically poor speech from Krudd. Anyone know how many times he licked his lips? I counted 9 in the first minute alone. Maybe he was anticipating some tasty ear wax.
Institute of Chartered Accountants backs Rudd’s tax plan.
Institute of Chartered Accountants…….Union hacks
Hey Steve, I bet 745 ruawake has just made your day. Time for about five more inane contributions as fear starts setting in.
How old did the laptop Rudd was holding up look it was something from 1996 not 2007 god he should have brought his Parliamentary laptop that he gets it would look better than holding that prehistoric crap in the air for so long just made him look like a noob…maybe his work one has too much ear wax all over it…
#734 Let It End or Julie
What was Costello doing there?
PS God, if I hear Costello’s droning, faux statesmanship monotone much more, I will be ill. On the other hand, so will everyone else.
Ask Howard what a laptop is and he would tell you it is the tray you put your dinner on when watching TV or when having brekky in bed.
Time to move into the 21st century, the 50’s were nice, white picket fence, no asians and all, but we all have to move on some time.
748
Wasn’t funny the first time,Glen…
I’m surprised Rudd isnt so ill from eating his own ear wax Crikey Whitey…
see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aQ8YiIV1AI
Howard wants to give every kid a “wireless”.
Steven / Glen get your mummy and daddy to read you “the hare and the tortoise” before you go bye byes tonight.
738 John
I haven’t been smashed for over 10 years, but I’ll get stuck in if Kevin refers to Peter as a low altitude flyer!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaLLP4sc_6Q&mode=related&search=
Of course ‘working families’ and ‘economic conservative’ deserve a sip too.
Working families will destroy you – they’ll both be saying it so much…
Costello is definitely not a very good orator. Thanks Julie re Bailley’s performance… I don’t know how you answered before the question but time zones are intriguing things.
Oh Costello ran out for a “don’t forget about me” interview after Rudd left. He shouldn’t have bothered, had nothing or relevance to say, he was so depressed he couldn’t even manage a decent smirk.
Howard’s hard of hearing, so he probably hears” lapdog”, and wonders why Rudd is subsidising people to have Downer in their home
Howard let The Gimp out did he?
Who’s driving the racing car while he’s attending the media?
#759 That reminds me, where is Dolly these days? Must be hiding him away lol.
I missed Hockey vs Mike Bailey. So Bailey kicked Hockey’s arse? Brilliant!
David Spears cheerleading for the Liberals: a taste of things to come on Sunday night.
Crikey pointed out today that Howard asked the Chaser to pick on people who are alive…ie not him…hope the Chaser takes the free kick on Wednesday
&38
John,
How about adding everytime Glen mentions earwax…..
Speers was blatantly helping Hockey, not that it did him any good though. Rudd needs to be wary of Speers in the debate.
Thanks, Let It End.
#761
I think Minchin the finance minister is struggling with the steering wheel, just barely managing to keep the speeding beast on the track until Smirk gets back to his desk
Does “Tabitha” clock on at six o’clock? Can’t wait to see what she writes.
wombat she’s on the morgan thread
768
Its a team thing. Bless HR Nicholls
I think Tabitha clocks on about the same time as Shanahan’s deadline…
Crikey Whitey,
Costello was live in Melbourne with his spiel. The debate between Hockey and Bailey was pre-recorded in the studios in Sydney. They pre-empted the debate for Costello and then put the debate on in its entirety when Costello was done. Sorry if we misled anyone, they weren’t in the same place
Gotta stop drinking for a moment I thought you wrote “I think Tabitha clocks on about the same time as Shanahan’s dead…
no, no – it can only be words/phrases uttered by Mr. Rudd or Mr. Howard during the Great Debate. Print out a big list of phrases, cut them up seperately, get your mates over… each of you take turns pulling a phrase out of bag – turn on your plasma’s and settle down with a cartoon of stubbies and let the fun begin!
(This is why the person drawing working families will die of alcohol poisoning… on the other hand… that gets me thinking… perhaps if you could make sure that your token liberal invitee (every good party needs a liberal pinata) draws ‘working families’… hey! we could possibly decrease the liberal vote by 1 or 2% within 90 minutes!)
SMH poll.
74/26 in favout of Rudd’s plan.
Vote now and often.
http://www.smh.com.au/polls/politics/form.html
Okay, who’d prefer eating their ear wax to reading through 691 posts…
So Labor’s tax policy was always going to be directed at education/families. Clever, in that it can be sold as giving incentive to all families to ensure equity and modernity in access to computers, internet and school books.
Most of it will end up as middle class/upper middle welfare (upgrade your home computer, buy another laptop for everyone with kids).
The remainder will go over as ‘me-tooism’
The Labor staffers must be spending more time rigging the polls than eating their own ear wax like their Saint Rudd!
Shouldnt you all be out door knocking after Labor’s shocker week 1?
Gecko I am just about to start drinking, so will make even less sense shortly
Ta, Julie. Costello was just on PM, droning on incomprehensibly about the plan. Can’t report, fell asleep. Just caught the word’s, working mums.
Maybe Hockey rang Costello and told him Bailey had won, so Costello obliged by calling a presser, hoping the debate would be bumped
Interesting SMH poll. Who would tick not good enough?
Go figure its a Socialist Morning Herald Poll so no wonder it favours Krudd!
Hey Glen, gotta question for you…
What do you think of Edward and Tabitha… as people… and as fellow travellers?
Cos it is Friday afternoon.
http://www.roadtosurfdom.com/2007/10/19/what-have-the-unions-ever-done-for-us/
Looks like the Lib staffers overloaded the News Ltd poll. It seems to have been taken down.
Glen, you should tell your mates not to be so enthusiastic. I watched as the not in favour vote picked up 40 points in about 30 minuted.
Costello’s day just went from bad to ugly
……
“Analysts expect another chunky rise in Australian inflation for the third quarter and it’s a close call whether that will be enough to trigger the first ever rate rise during an election campaign, a Reuters poll showed.
The consumer price index (CPI) is due out next Wednesday, October 24, and is crucial for the outlook for rates. Since the start of 2006 there have been four “high” readings for CPI and each was followed by a tightening from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/inflation-rates-as-pms-nightmare/2007/10/19/1192301035483.html
“Most of it will end up as middle class/upper middle welfare (upgrade your home computer, buy another laptop for everyone with kids).”
By definition, very few middle class, and no upper middle families are on the Family Tax Benefit (Part A).
Rudd eats earwax.
Christ can the Liberal smears get any lower?
This poll on the ABC doesn’t seem to be getting much attention by the Lib staffers and Young Libs yet.
The results so far seem to be right on the money but will get corrupted as time goes on.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/poll/vote/
785
Very funny.
Julie,
That means there will be two weeks of will they rise/won’t they rise talk until the Reserve Bank makes a decision on November 7.
Could create uncertainty amongst the mortgage belt and who do you blame?
Sorry, News Ltd poll still operating, coming off Rudd Robinhood link now.
http://www.news.com.au/poll/1,,5007133-5031332,00.html
779 I’m calling Warringah for Zochling – I think Glen’s got a couple of hours head start on you.
Hey, I’ve got an idea for us singles. Who are always called upon.
A subsidy to compensate for the cost of taking the young rellies out and about, or picking them up from school, babysitting, or funding their parents.
Or, in my case, damages. One little beast crashed my brand new electric bike into a pole last week. What about a subsidy for electric bikes, anyway? Wanted it for among other things, green means.
792,
GG – it bloody serves Costello and Howard right for not calling the election in September as soon as APEC was over and having the election on 20th of 27th of October. They have diced with death here (their own jobs) and they are going down in flames
7,000+ votes in 3 hours? It has to be toad poo.
Libs need to get on song with their message
“Government frontbencher Tony Abbott has referred to Australian unions as no more important than local football clubs only a few hours after Prime Minister John Howard hosed down controversy over similar comments by his Workplace Relations Minister.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007workplace/abbott-dismisses-unions/2007/10/19/1192300996446.html
Laurie Oakes’ political report on channel 9 news tonight was a horror negative piece of reporting. Rudd is being accused of me-too-ism and not being able to deliver his own tax package.
If anybody wants to organise a riot over media bias, I’M IN.
Glen,
The earwax joke was funny one time but over and over? Now you’re acting like a teenager. Next you’ll be telling us that Howard has never picked his nose or wiped his own backside.
799
Centre Says:
October 19th, 2007 at 6:15 pm
Laurie Oakes’ political report on channel 9 news tonight was a horror negative piece of reporting. Rudd is being accused of me-too-ism and not being able to deliver his own tax package.
If anybody wants to organise a riot over media bias, I’M IN.
Probably Laurie just whining because he won’t get anything out of Rudd’s plan. He doesn’t look like he has kids still at home and I am sure that Channel 9 pays him well enough so that he doesn’t get FTB A
Julie
Anymore on Hockey and Bailey, had a look on Sky site and saw podcasts but does not look like they post it there.
From what I have heard Bailey has been getting stuck into the local electorate, doorknocking and finding their concerns whilst Hockey has been getting stuck into the “pork pies”.
It would not surprise me to see Hockey lose, pity they don’t do more of these debates at a local level and show them on local TV or even ABC 2, where more can see them.
Theres a video on youtube of Howard trying to bowl in cricket and throwing a wobbley TWICE.
Maybe we should post it here time and time again and point out how useless Howard is at cricket.
How low you Lib Lackeys wanna take the smears?
Arbie, I’ve been looking for something on it too.
Something about some political debates only being available if you pay Rupert some bucks sticks in my craw a touch….
Some footy clubs are more important than others, however.
Judging by the pork barrels.
Apparently Rudd cleaned Laurie Oakes house as a student job when he was at Uni.
Maybe Oakes is just ensuring the hired help don’t rise above their station.
Lom
The televised debates bring back the old campaging when you could see what you were getting, pity not all can see it.
Tea time. (the kiddies, of course) You too, Glen.
802,
Arbie, I really don’t have any more to add upon what others have already said. However, we get emails in this house from Mike Bailey’s campaign so if anything turns up with a nice juicey link to coverage of the debate or similar, it will get posted
. I don’t live that electorate but just want to stay “informed” 
799
In fairness Laurie Oakes has been pretty even-handed this year on Sunday. Maybe its just his opinion. The Tax policy was a strategic political response and not ideological.
Tea time the kiddies of course you too glen……..just so he understands it:-)
Go to Sky News website and have a vote. “Whose tax plan do you prefer?”. Very narrowly to Labor at the moment ….. (theirs is keyed with cookies though so you need to undo that however you do it if you want to add your vote more than once)
gg
He cleaned Oakes’ toilets and kids rooms.
Rudd is on A Current Affair.
Good one, Laurie. Yeah, Labor’s ramshackle, poorly announced tax policy will die a quick death. And, gee, Krudd doesn’t present well at all. The lip-licking, the sing-song delivery, the karate chops, the weird tapping of the laptop – he’s just a bundle of deeply irritating tics, isn’t he?
#815
small jumbled word puzzle
our’eY na dioit
(hint: ask Mum and Dad)
I originally switched to Labor for two reasons; couldn’t stomach Howard and Costello and their reliance on divisiveness and secondly the loony nutter infiltration of the Libs.
Didn’t really know that much about Rudd but am really starting to warm to the guy now. Rudd presents himself as a great leader, calm, cool, intelligent, respectful and forward looking.
Makes a pleasant change from the mendacious bile and opportunistic wedge politicking that Howard and Tip rely on.
K Rudd has class.
Let it end @ 817
Yep!
812 Thanks Julie,
Bailey intrigues me, he and Garrett will make a good pairing in a labor government.
Greensborough Growler
Rudd also worked as a cleaner at Campbelltown? Hospital for six months, when he attended a refurbishment recently he said he knew every inch of the floors as he had personally cleaned them.
Could be another reason why he gets on the libs nerves, can’t have a former cleaner as PM wot?
Make that a Crystel one so every kiddie can listen to the ABC’s Synthetic Broadcasts of Bradman beating those poms in the Mother Country
If the libs are going to lose this campaign it’s because of Costello. He’s wildly unpopular.
Arbie et al,
This doesn’t include specific information on how to source feed for today’s debate, but if anyone in North Sydney wants to meet up with Mike Bailey, here is his schedule for the next week. I should be able to get similar updates going forward too.
He will be door knocking in these neighborhoods next week –
Monday 22nd October – Gladesville
Tuesday 23rd October – Lane Cove
Wednesday 24th October – Boronia Park
Thursday 25th October – Gladesville
Friday 26th October – Gladesville
This is his plan for this weekend -
Saturday 20th October – Walk through North-side Produce Markets, Civic Park North Sydney (Meet outside council chambers) – 8am to 9am
Lane Cove Plaza 9:30am to 1pm (meet outside the ANZ Bank in the Plaza)
Willoughby Stall 10:30am to 12:30pm – High Street Shops (meet corner of McClelland and High St. Willoughby)
Sunday 21st October – Crows Nest Fair – All Day – 8am to 9am the biggest day of the year in Crows Nest.
Blog entry with more information about Bailey –
http://www.kevin07.com.au/myblog/campaigning-with-mike-bailey.html
405 Judy [warning: irrelevant trivia]
Hey there, Judy. Noticed your reference to having a bit of the GF goalpost when Westies had a free after the siren … and hit the post!
Geez, that set me thinking. Jimmy Wright, 1954? I was there that day, though only a kid with Dad. My memory’s a bit vague now, but it was a great game. West were well on top before halftime when Brian Faeshe flattened Davey Boyd. Led to a bit of angry pushing and shoving, when “Boof” A’Court suddenly threw the ball into Kevin Stevens’ face. That led to a real brawl, and Fos Williams always said that ignited Port for the second half. Still remember that fairly straight-in-front kick. I was hoping it’d go through. I was a North supporter but everyone who wasn’t Port was barracking for West that day.
Let’s hope the memories are a bit better after 24th November. I think they will be.
Just back on Rudd’s tax announcement, PM tonight had any number of economists flailing both sides for their profligacy.
Funny though, that they waited until now to voice their concerns.
Seems like the Coalition announcement on Monday didn’t warrant it – but now Labor’s involved??? wtf
Thanks Julie
Oh well. In a couple of weeks a sixth consecutive fire will rip through the last of Team Rodent’s munitions, leaving the bunker completely exposed.
#675
Buried in an avalanche of posts but I believe your question about quantifying the Labor policy as 91.5% the same as the coalition’s?
I think you’ll find that (rounded off), the Labor proposal is 31 billion in tax cuts, whilst the coalition’s (rounded) is 34 billion. 31/34, close enough to 91.5%
However, I think Costello must be a little tired this week. He had a golden opportunity for a comeback when asked on Tuesday to comment on Kevin Rudd’s delay on releasing the Labor Tax policy, what he SHOULD have said was:
“I can’t really see what Mr Rudd’s delay in releasing the ALP tax policy is, it has been sitting there on the Liberal Party website since lunchtime…”
I think Rudd may have overdone the “sailing close to the leader” thing a little lately. He runs the risk of voters seeing it as a hollow strategy and riding the coat-tails of the coalition. Mind you, the coalition is still in need of clear plans for the future that a voter can cite.
Good to hear Mike’s going well and working hard Julie. I live across the road (literally) in Macarthur. Wish Mike was standing out here actually, he’s a life long Magpies man (sure he has a soft spot for the Bears though Norths folks), and Farmer is about the biggest myth ever. Chris Hayes will get over 65% TPP easy, but it looks like we’ll have Pat achieving even less than nothing for the area for another three years.
I admit I would have like Rudd to take the gamble of reducing the tax cuts and diverting more into infrastructure but unfortunately he had no choice other than to neutralise it. Sadly that says more about the greed and short sighted view of the electorate and it’s willingness to be bought than about either political party.
Steven Kaye @ 716
What? Costello actually said “if he gets in Howard and Costello won’t be there”? So he’s finally identified Rudd’s strongest point
bryce 824
Got rid of the kids. Even looks like Glen is in bed.
Listened to and watched recorded stuff.
Amazing really, that the guardians are silent one day, incensed the next.
Delroy. What the Papers Say.
Mike Kelly. No regrets in military role over slaughtered warlord, 1993.
Canberra Times. Kelly. Evil. Bloodthirsty.