As foreshadowed earlier this evening by a cunning stuntman in comments, ACNielsen shows Labor’s two-party lead narrowing to 54-46 from 56-44 earlier in the month. Primary vote figures suggest rounding accounts for part of the 2 per cent shift – the Coalition is up from 40 per cent to 42 per cent, but Labor also is up from 47 per cent to a formidable 48 per cent. Here’s a table of ACNielsen’s recent results. In typing the results over the template from my earlier Galaxy table, I was struck by how similar the two series have been.
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Oct 19
|
54 | 46 | 48 | 42 | |
|
Oct 6
|
56 | 44 | 47 | 40 | |
|
Sep 8
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Aug 11
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
Jul 14
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 39 | |
|
Jun 16
|
57 | 43 | 48 | 39 | |
|
May 19
|
58 | 42 | 48 | 39 | |
|
April 21
|
58 | 42 | 50 | 37 | |
832 Comments
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Child like, Glen.
The question still stands GG whether we want a PM who eats his own ear wax and who doesnt understand the tax rates!
Lovely set of numbers. Again.
And full of seductive charm.
Kids. Education. Technology. Good mind link to Kev’s broadband, too.
Like the way the low income pensioners and those unable to afford private cover, et al, as they await hip and knee surgery, get a nice, juicy health bone up front to chew over, at the same time as the goodies for the working population are presented.
Howard photographed with his lap table.
Rudd photographed getting a lap DANCE.
Rudd is definitely the WINNER!!!!!!
698
…could be eating (humble) apple pie….fingers crossed!
Howard photographed with his lap table.
Rudd photographed getting a lap DANCE.
Rudd is definitely the WINNER!!!!!!
.
.
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My apologies if that last post offends any of the Exclusive Brethren types on the blog.
On Monday the Liberals gave Rudd a huge number to play with as he sought fit. He’s grabbed it beautifully – and linked it back to the ALP’s core message on education, nation building. There will be no error in the tax numbers – because Costello did the calculations for him. This will stabilize the ALP primary at between 48 -50.
Adam @640
That’s so naff – this season it’s all about throwing up on the _butler_ and pushing Daddy’s Maserati into the pool!
I’m looking forward to the GG Editorial. Apology? Open mouthed admiration and wonder? Over the hastily cobbled together tax plan.
Anyone who reads editorials in the Morgoth press is seriously in need of a life.
The vast majority of the 2?% of taxpayers on more than $180,000 p.a. live in safe Liberal seats, and always vote Liberal. Hence Labor leaving out that part of the Lib’s tax cuts will not affect Labor’s ability to get 16 seats one iota. Smart.
oh hurah, now i can wear my kevin 07 t-shirt with pride. i will wear it at the gym and hope some lib weed says sometthing so i can stomp some skulls.
A brilliant tactical package announced by Rudd and Steven Kaye knows it LOL.
Tax cuts have now effectively been neutralised. Labor will be seen as economically conservative and responsible in which they really are behind the propaganda. Labor will win on health. Labor leads on education. Me-too-ism is the government on broadband and climate change. The nuclear debate is yet to start.
And to come is the ace in the pack,WORK2CHOICES. Rudd has been checking Howard this week, now the pressure starts but don’t go too early, it’s like a Melbourne Cup. The debate, which is yet to come, will be a distant memory by the time it is to vote.
alpal: The Libs jumped the gun with their policy, they should of waited for Labor to bring out their original plan, and then trump them. Now they have a problem, if they attack the overall policy, they attack their own, if they attack the education side then they lose out and if they attack the fact the $180K+ miss out they look like they look after the rich and finally they can’t attack the dropping of a tax rate because it makes it fairer and removes bracket creep.
#706 Paul K Says:
My apologies if that last post offends any of the Exclusive Brethren types on the blog.
EB’s neither blog, use technology or vote.
Big LOSERS!
Peter Costello’s response to the Krudd’s tax plan was just as I predicted and spot on. As ninemsn reports:
Mr Costello said Labor would not be able to deliver the tax cuts because it could not manage the economy.
“Unless you can manage the Australian economy, these tax cuts will not be deliverable,” he said.
“Mr Rudd and Mr Swan do not understand the Australian economy. This is entirely clear from the fact they have spent four days copying 91.5 per cent of our tax plan.”
Mr Costello said the problem with Mr Rudd was he would not be able to follow the coalition’s policies if he was elected.
“He never had a tax policy,” Mr Costello said.
“He hadn’t done the work, five days after our tax policy, his great contribution to the tax debate in this country is to say ‘me too, but’.
“The trouble with ‘me too, but’ is, it’s OK for Mr Rudd to say ‘me too, I’ll be like Howard and Costello and adopt their policies’, but if he gets in Howard and Costello won’t be there writing the policies.
“So who is going to say ‘me to, but’ to them? I think the union movement will be giving him a few ideas.”
Exactly right. It doesn’t matter what the economic bunglers of the ALP announce, there will always be question marks over their ability to deliver tax reform.
precisely Will.
Interestingly, the ALP proposes a flatter tax structure – no 35% bracket.
That puts natural persons on the same level as corporations – reducing incentive for incorporation of individuals, and making tax fairer as between ‘natural persons’ and companies. Simpler. I like it!
On reflection, I think we can conclude it goes rather further down the reform path than the rodent plan!
David Speers can’t help himself. He tried to back up Hockey and Hockey needed it too.
711 I’m calling
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but be careful.
A large chunk of ‘l’ liberals are prepared to follow their social conscience and are giving the ALP a protest vote.
I’d suggest that those on $180K plus might also rank amongst the business leaders who have strongly swung in behind labour in recent months.
Note that Kevin identified himself in this group.
We all want to belong – there’s no need to apply a wedge, however small it might be, to gain support. Political skill involves appealing to different groups in different ways.
When Howard or Costello are paid a bigger salary than the head of Treasury that’s when I will believe that they are the economic managers of the country.
As I’ve posted before, Gary Bruce, David Speers is merely an appendix of the PM’s Press Offfice. The Gallery think he is an idiot. His sidekick – Kiernan Gilbert – is a straight reporter.
Bailey did a wonderful job, Hockey was left in the dust …..
Gary @ 719
How did we do in that debate?
Centre, Con Sciacca was on the World Today comparing Rudd’s Run to the Melbourne Cup. 500 metres in at that point.
Not too late to place your bets, ladies and gentleme, on 07, inside rails.
alpal – do you know that for certain? I wouldn’t be surprised if what you say is spot on. Howard didn’t pick Speers to host the debate for nothing. Was Speers a member of the Liberal Party at any stage?
I am feeling unwell… I think it is withdrawal symptoms.
I have not see “union bosses†mentioned anywhere today
I must be missing something as it has appeared 1000 times a day for the last week.
Maybe the Libs/Nats have grown up.
Narrrrr that cant be right ………….. that is unnatural.
Julie
Any more details?
The minister responsible only for selling workchoices losing his seat send the right message me thinks.
Mike Bailey kicked Joe’s gonads. Hockey is an idiot to do a TV debate with a 30+ year TV veteran.
Be we already know he is.
Bailey is very impressive. Had all bases covered. Very confident.
720
As a small ‘l’ voter who cannot stand by and watch the lack of social justice anymore, I agree wholeheartedly…the ‘divide and rule’ has been too destructive.
The question that should be on every serious liberals mind is why the dominant politictal party since the war is goiing to out of office across Australia at every level. How did the get into such a desperate mess? It is hard to explain, they are led by such a clever politician. It does help to understand why there is such a shrill reaction from those valiant young lib posters to the Ruddster tax policy.
731
thanks Megan – get the word out there
Speers is a hack, Bailey dominated Hockey even though Speers was doing his best for shrek.
Costello looked a total dill trying to find something meaningfully to say, he had nothing other than his usual moaning LOL
Brilliant tactics? Hah! Centre, the momentum is all the Government’s way.
From the PM’s phrase “the right leadership”, to the surprise tax policy on the first day, to lots of images of voters hugging Mr Howard, to the defection of O’Connor coinciding with the start of the Coalition’s anti-union campaign, to news of a surge in betting in the Coalition’s favour, to improved polls and finally to Krudd’s forced premature release of his tax package, Kevni’s been desperately dancing to the PM’s tune.
Rudd is going to offer some ear wax with his tax policy free of charge LOL!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aQ8YiIV1AI
Just one example. Bailey was asked by Speers to refute the 70% union make up of the shadow ministry. Bailey had a list ready and read out their past jobs. Of course Speers steps in and says that that over looks their union membership. Joe needed help.
okay… drinking games for the great debate…
first suggestion: have to skull a beer (any brand except West End) every time Mr. Howard says ‘union boss/official’… any other suggestions
SK @ 735 bodly stated “Centre, the momentum is all the Government’s way.”
Hmmm.. and the past 12 months of momentum and polls?
Labor can’t manage the economy???
Steven, Costello is the greatest L Plater, as Keating correctly said, of all time.
Gary, I have no idea if Speers is a member of the Liberal Party – although I doubt it. Gallery journalists can get into strife with editors and peers if they belong to any Party. I know for a fact that Speers is not highly regarded by the pack – not that he probably cares. There will be a nice job in Opposition after the election if he wants it.
Nice try Steve but no cigar. Glen, time for afternoon tea now. I’m sure mummy has it ready for you.
Steven Kaye (716)
I very quickly learned there was nothing worth reading in you short contributions so I am certainly not going to waste my time reading your long ones.
Glen probably will though – especially if it mentiones ear wax.
May I say, presentation wise, it was a typically poor speech from Krudd. Anyone know how many times he licked his lips? I counted 9 in the first minute alone. Maybe he was anticipating some tasty ear wax.
Institute of Chartered Accountants backs Rudd’s tax plan.
Institute of Chartered Accountants…….Union hacks
Hey Steve, I bet 745 ruawake has just made your day. Time for about five more inane contributions as fear starts setting in.
How old did the laptop Rudd was holding up look it was something from 1996 not 2007 god he should have brought his Parliamentary laptop that he gets it would look better than holding that prehistoric crap in the air for so long just made him look like a noob…maybe his work one has too much ear wax all over it…
#734 Let It End or Julie
What was Costello doing there?
PS God, if I hear Costello’s droning, faux statesmanship monotone much more, I will be ill. On the other hand, so will everyone else.
Ask Howard what a laptop is and he would tell you it is the tray you put your dinner on when watching TV or when having brekky in bed.
Time to move into the 21st century, the 50’s were nice, white picket fence, no asians and all, but we all have to move on some time.
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