• Galaxy has released further findings from yesterday’s poll, which can be viewed through this nifty graphic.
• Writing in The Age, Rod Cameron notes a particular concentration of the part-time working mothers targeted by the Coalition’s tax policy in the important Victorian seats of Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, McEwen and McMillan. Cameron also includes Solomon on his list of marginal Coalition seats which Labor can’t take for granted, which I had only previously heard suggested by Matthew Franklin and Brad Norington of The Australian.
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that both parties’ polling has Nationals incumbent Paul Neville holding a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Garry Parr in the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler. Roberts’ article paints an unflattering picture of Parr’s campaign efforts which recalls the media-shy performance of Ed Husic, Labor’s disastrously unsuccessful candidate for Greenway at the 2004 election. Anecdotal evidence is also presented of strong local feeling over the council amalgamations issue.
• Shortly after dumped Labor member Gavan O’Connor announced he would attempt to hold his seat of Corio as an independent, Labor has promised to add $45 million to its existing funding plans for the Geelong Ring Road.
• Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph notes that the need to respond to the Coalition tax package caused Kevin Rudd to scrap “early rough plans” for “a sweep across the country from Brisbane to Sydney to Adelaide and Perth”. The only Liberal marginal seat he has found time to visit so far has been the Adelaide electorate of Kingston, reckoned by most to be a certain Labor gain.
• The Sky News Election 07: Agenda program last night broadcast a debate between Joe Hockey and Mike Bailey, the Liberal and Labor candidates for North Sydney, which you can hear as a podcast.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian notes that the behaviour of the major parties indicates they believe “working women are fibbing when they tell opinion pollsters they prefer increased public spending over another round of tax cuts” (can’t find the article online but I’m sure it’s there somewhere).
• After some invaluable advice from readers last month on reducing bandwidth costs, this vehicle is running a good deal more efficiently than it used to. Nonetheless, the announcement of the election has brought a further surge in traffic, so I am again having to shell out extra for the privilege of staying online until the end of the month. Please click on the PayPal button on the sidebar if you would like to make a contribution (I should acknowledge that whenever I make this plea, the resulting influx is enough to cover my costs with a fair bit to spare). To clear up a common point of confusion: you do not need a PayPal account to donate, you simply have to click “continue” where it says “Don’t have a PayPal account?” at the bottom left.
274 Comments
What’s also interesting about the Hildebrandt piece is that he’s quite positive on Rudd’s tax policy and says that he’s back in the game, as it were. Is this to be expected of him. Can’t say I know of him, but my default position is to assume Murdoch hacks toe the party line…
Gary Parr always had next to no chance of snatching hinkler.
Sums up the election campaign really. It’s all fluff. What is a Rudd government really going to be like is the next interesting question.
If you step back and think about the Tax thingo. The Tax cuts are possible because of the GST and inflation (bracket creep). We get our bracket creep back and personal income tax reduction payed for by the GST. Like it all not the percentage of the gross domestic product generated/used by all recent government has increased. Like it or not progressive taxation is being wound back ( the GST is a flat tax).
However the GST is board tax that catches services and imports. Sales tax punished goods, and income tax punishes local production. The GST is a good thing and the Liberals deserved several wins because they had the balls to bring it in.
Clearly the GST has washed through political life. No one has been honest about what the tax cuts are about. Net result, a small swing to the liberals which will probable go the other way with Labor detailing how they will unwind the over taxation that is still occurring because of the introduction of the GST.
I still think the Liberals are going to get creamed. The fundamentals have not changed, the Liberal party has been taken over by the right wing and they just can’t help themselves.
Rudd is after the center and the right wing abandoned that turf years ago.
30+ seats to labor.
Hi William,
Just donated $10.00
Thanks for putting up with my squiggles
That Hinker result is interesting – still shows a really good swing to Labor in the provinces. And this is even factoring the so called doomsday predictions of what the council amalgamations would do.
(Let’s face it the ‘public’ protests against the amalgamations were mainly Council employees and politicians – nobody else cares.)
Bye Johnny.
BrissyRod doesnt that poll show a swing TOWARDS Neville in Hinkler?
Forgot to ask – what is the next poll? Newspoll on Monday????
Hi Thommo –
In Hinkler, the current margin is 58.8 to the Nationals. If they end up being 55, as the poll suggests, I believe thats a 3.8% swing to Labor.
On the subject of Hinkler…I live in the neighbouring seat of Flynn and I have been seeing an aweful lot of Gary Parr ads on TV. The ALP must be a bit worried if they are throwing that kind of advertising dollars at a seat and getting so little traction.
Thanks for the correction Brissyrod
“Look out for another king hit soon from Howard on health.”
So says The Minister for Propaganda, Herr Dennis Shanahan.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/challenger_regains_balance_to_hit_back/
Alan Ramsey in the SMH:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/this-time-the-tables-are-turned/2007/10/19/1192301044259.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Well worth a read.
re Hinkler/ Flynn
with the redistribution now Gladstone and Bundaberg are in differerent
seats, I think Mr Neville had a personal vote in both cities
I expect Hinkler on current boundaries would be a non labor seat
but once Mr Neville retires this could be different
Flynn is different seems to sit on a approx the swing needed for labor
to get a 50% 2pp in QLD and is uneven in it’s voting pattern
work choices would also have an impact for Labor in that seat
given a swing this would be interesting on the night
hi William, ive just put in my share, i know i dont add much to the blog but i lurk and read it through every day, thanks mate for your patience in running this blog, with Crikey i wouldnt miss it, it’s great seeing everyone’s opinion, much, much, better than the newspapers blogs.
Judy, while you’re around … did you see my post 823 on page 9 of the Nielsen thread?
Regards
It has been a very poor week for Labor.
Nothing from them all week until yesterday, and then they probably didn’t have too much choice but to match most of the government’s tax cuts.
The last 2-3 weeks is the first time I’ve really seen Labor on the back foot since Rudd took over. Not a good start to a campaign, and it’s no surprise that the polls have dropped for them.
They really got shafted on the tax package. The government basically nicked most of Labor’s tax package wishlist, called it their own, and wheeled it out on the first day of the campaign. Foolishly, I think, Labor didn’t respond and so now everyone thinks they’re the ones who have copied. So the government got a 34 billion free kick, and Labor gets no credit whatsoever. Labor has been done over badly on that one.
The good news is, I guess, that the tax policy is the most difficult for an opposition and fraught with danger. At least they have come through it without screwing it up.
The negative points for Labor at this point are many, I feel. They have lost momentum, and more importantly they have failed to counter (so far) the two biggest attacks that the government is using against them:
- Rudd is a “me too” politician with no policy of his own
- Labor is too heavily influenced by the unions
These are going to be the main line of negative attack by the government, and it seems to me that Labor has allowed them to do so with very little retaliation.
Perception is a very powerful thing, and once thoughts like “me too” and “union dominated” get into people’s minds they will be hard to counter. And if Labor do not fight back more strongly than they are now it will be taken by the public as an admission that the claims are partially true. We saw all this before in 2004 with the interest rate scare campaign. Labor needs to counter *now* before it gets out of hand.
ps. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again (in case anyone from Labor or union HQ is reading): where have the workchoices ads gone? I feel that opposition to workchoices has softened noticeably since the union ad campaign ended and the government advertising went into overdrive. Time to ramp it back up guys!
Yes, a terrible first week for Labor. There are also reports that Krudd is trying to limit his public appearances because he feels awkward and uncomfortable in such situations. And doesn’t it ever show!
About Hildebrandt – this guy ran a lot of anti-Workchoices pieces in the Tele throughout the year, so you’d expect him to try and spin things Labor’s way. But this idea that they’ve somehow neutralised the Coalition’s tax plan is garbage – they will NEVER be able to compete with the Government in this area and fell straight into the PM’s trap when they desperately tried to do so.
12 Scotty
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/this-time-the-tables-are-turned/2007/10/19/1192301044259.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap2
Very good Scotty and for those that think that Liberals never tell lies its an
informative read. For those that don’t understand the ALP tactics its very enlightening.
Steven Kaye 17 – are there two Kevin Rudd’s? The one you’re seeing, I haven’t seen. He’s a media tart and comes over well on TV. The profile on ACA last night will pick up a few votes for him. Costello is the one looking uncomfortable – last night he was looking very deflated and rattled as he responded to Rudd’s tax plan. Costello accused Rudd of pinching his policy, yet only a day or so ago, Costello was advising Rudd to adopt the government’s tax policy. Rudd called his bluff and Costello was snookered. I agree with media comments that the small lift on the Libs polling was due to calling the election, not tax. Newspoll on Monday will be a good indicator of where we really are at.
Costello comes across as a smug, pompous git: he’s a liability.
Steven, you’re gonna be one very sad boy in about a month. Also, analysis, not proselytisation (particularly so purile and behind enemy lines) is much more interesting.
At this stage I’d say the Libs have the start on points, but the election still getting onto the front page of the likes of the Tele. Howard needs much much more to even become competitive.
Ashley, no need to panic.
Apart from the Economy (non-frightening tax plan now out of the way) and terrorism (nothing on the horizon, but who knows???) and the Union dominated front bench taunts (this will be stale as the weeks roll by), Labor owns all the other major issues.
The Coalition will now have to do battle in Health, Education, IR, Climate Change, Nuclear etc etc. Labor seen as dominant in all these areas.
Don’t forget Labor has been polling miles ahead all year – they see, and will continue to see, a Labor leader they like and trust.
The Libs got a little traction out of the Tax policy (and had to!), but where to now?? It’s down to fighting on Labor’s patch.
Labor were wrong-footed for sure by last Monday’s tax annoucement, but there’s a long way to go.
William – have been enjoying this site and will continue to do so. Have just tossed a lobster into PayPal. Thanks for your work.
Sorry, NOT even getting onto the front of the tele. The phoney campaign dragged on for too long, I’m not sure how focussed anything or anyone has been yet, and we’ve already had the major Liberal arsenal firing.
If the order in which those Galaxy questions was asked was the same as their article then once again they are push-polling. Galaxy’s credibility is really a worry now…
http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2007/10/071019poll/poll2.swf
The govt had to do something to gain momentum, and has fired its tax cuts gun. Yes, it’s been a good week for the govt, but there’s still 5 weeks to go. Labor will increasingly dominate the news agenda over that period, as the govt really doesn’t have too much left other than tax cuts. Labor’s done well with their tax response.
I heard Costello yesterday replying to Rudd’s tax policy. He sounded very flat and deflated even with the school test analogy and the 91.5% gibe.
Maybe he needs 89 guffawing members behind him to make him look witty.
Has Labor’s tax policy been reported in the media?
My partner says this site is totally lame compared to her Genealogy site, which turns quite savage at times.
I used to visit the Yahoo messenger politics site before Bush’s last election and also for the Senate election. Fast furious and sometime viscous but no shortage of participants – which is what Australia needs, more people taking an interest.
also vicious
Exactly Bryce,
That’s why all tip will make a terrible opposition leader
Some good coverage of Labor’s tax policy in the papers this morn. Another good article by George Mega in GG about the women’s vote – both parties should read carefully.
Newspaper reporting on Labor’s tax plan has been surprisingly ambivalent. I expected the likes of the Australian to rip into it, but they didn’t. I guess that’s one of the attractions of matching government policy… the media can’t laud Costello and then turn round and attack Rudd for something similar (well, they can, but they can’t be as vicious).
The big negative for the government is that now that tax is out of the way, the economy is likely to take a back seat in the election campaign. As others have pointed out, the government don’t have too many other things going for them.
and that’s exactly why Labor did it
Will tomorrow night’s debate matter all that much? Of course we political junkies will watch it, but do the average punters care? I predict “Bingo Night” and “Aussie Idol” will win the ratings easily.
One assumes if either Howard or Rudd perform badly, the media will make a lot out of it, otherwise will it change that many votes?
Ashley, I don’t know about Labor having a disasterous first week, but yes, they were rather flat and uninspiring! I suspect Costello and Howard bringing out the tax policy on Monday was a masterstroke and upset Labor strategy, but do the Liberals have more surprises like this up their sleeves? If the best the Rodent can get out of a week of generally positive media coverage is narrowing the polls to 53:47, I think he’d be disappointed. Labor’s primary vote still looks strong.
Just tossed $10 into the pot. No strings attached!
As for Hinkler: Labor was never a chance of winning it, the council amalgamation issue is biting them hard up there.
I don’t believe the ‘narrowing’ in the polls was caused by the tax cuts and, the AC Neilsen seems to support that – I think much of the move whatever it was – was due to the election being called, as I said yesterday. If this is true then LNP policy initiatives may not help them very much.
AND what it might indicate is people lining up behind their respective choices – thus an increase in ALP primary as well.
8% said they would change their vote because of the LNP tax cut – but strangely that was split evenly between Labor and LNP – a draw?
Bryce @ 22,
“The Coalition will now have to do battle in Health, Education, IR, Climate Change, Nuclear etc etc. Labor seen as dominant in all these areas.”
According to Shanahan (whom I normally don’t read but his column was [for him] neutral today), Howard has a king hit policy on health care in the wings. Wonder what he is channeling ????
Chris B,
Can understand why the genealogy sites are so vicious.
You can call someone a “bastard” and have the evidence to back it up!
My RAID 0 has crashed
One bad disk. Lucky I have spare computer
William is there a way I can donate (funds transfer) without using my credit card?
Just as the ALP can’t win on the tax/economy front, the government can’t win on health or education, no matter what sort of ‘king hit’ Shamaham thinks they have coming. All it will do is bring the ALP ’strong’ areas to the fore, and take the Lib ’strong’ ones off the front pages.
over 6 weeks …. who knows what will happen
Labor was in the box seat going into the election as they had a 5-7%
lead in the 2pp vote
the dynamics of this election are people will elect a labor govt as long as they have a credible leader… which they have in Mr Rudd
the l plate campaign & the anti union campaigns will not work for these
reasons…. work choices are a big negative for the Liberals
I do know if any one has noticed …. but have a look a the pendulum
on this site….. noting that Calare is not a given for the National party
with a reasonable swing they could have less than 6 seats after the election
Howard’s one off wonder in Tasmania then their idea on hospitals just sounded illogical and it seems like they are softening their stance on that – Rudd should have ridiculed a bit more since there was lots of scope to do so.
You are all forgetting who has the most leadership experience as an election campaigner and that is Howard not Rudd…Rudd will tire after 6 weeks while Howard will still be looking fresh he’s done this all before your 7 pound weakling has never managed an entire election campaign so the next 5 weeks wont be plain sailing for Krudd.
Conroy on broadband today: “John Howard has let Australia slip into the digital Dark Age”.
Nice line, but I think digital stone age sounds better. Conjures up images of PCs made of stone. Contrasts nicely with Rudd’s image yesterday, and ties in well with Howard being past it.
Howard might be an experienced campaigner but he seems to lose most of the campaigns.
Got to ask – where are the ALP ads??? I’ve seen nothing – including now no anti-Workchoices ads – what kind of strategy is that???
Have there been many LNP ads? I’ve can only recall the one anti-union one. Seems quieter now than before the election was called.
Dario 25
Looked, thanks.
Too right! Push polling at the heinous level.
Remember to shave off percentage points on whatever negative (for me) poll result is published by these spinners.
I’ve seen a LOT of Govt. ads – including in prime-time 1 in every ad break for an hour, hour and a half (though I don’t watch a great deal of TV so perhaps this is just a fluke period when I happened to tune in)
Sorry “Coalition ads” not “Govt. ads”, now that they’ve had to take their noses out of the public trough…
Glen,
It’s Howard that ha that “Im too old for this shit”, grumpy old man look. Looks to me like he’ll need a hot cocoa before he can do the debate tomorrow. You reckon he might have a “nana” nap to pep him up.
As for his daily power walk. The latest information is that all that security is to make sure he finds his way home. Can’t have the silly old coot wandering the streets bewitched, bothered and bewildered.
There was suspicion of that when they got the first 53/47. I remember some one saying at the time that there mother was polled in that way.
Good Heavens!
I thought you were still in bed, Glen.
Can’t let the nippers out of sight for a moment.
Oh yeah yeah Glen whatever you reckon brother. Nice of you to crawl out of Howard’s backside long enough to comment.
I personally reckon Rudd is just warming up. He’ll be full tilt as of the debate and will keep it up until the end. Howard is the one who will end up exhausted. Like Catweazle… “nothing works… nothing works…”
Keep the laughs coming buddy.
ps. how was the national party vote in the last polls? the ones you liked?
#35 -
“The big negative for the government is that now that tax is out of the way, the economy is likely to take a back seat in the election campaign.”
LOL!! Ashley, do you really believe that? The economy will be the most important issue from the beginning to the end of the election campaign and will determine the result. It wouldn’t surprise me if you turned out to be one of the bright sparks over at ALP campaign headquarters.
Meanwhile, more evidence that Labor is dancing to the PM’s tune: the SMH reports today that due to the Government’s anti-union campaign, supposed star recruits like Combet and Shorten have been told to keep a low profile nationally and stay in their electorates. As a result, Combet’s been reduced to addressing local gatherings, like the “crowd” of 19 old biddies he spoke to a couple of days ago.
What craven curs.
Steven,
Two words…….. Interest Rates
Be scared, very scared!
I am still fascinated that the ‘narrowing’ included a 1% addition to Labor’s primary and in the Morgan the LNP didn’t move and Labor’s reduction simply moved to the Greens. The Galaxy? Well we know what happened the last time they produced a 53/47.
That is not the sort of ‘narrowing’ the LNP want from 1.calling the election 2. $34 bn tax cut
OK, probably a dumb question but what does “push polling” mean? or maybe a better question is , how is that galaxy thing “push polling”?
Forgive my ignorance
mate, planting an idea and leading with certain themes with the intention of getting certain responses from your audience.
Like the ‘dog-whistle’ for polsters. So that Galaxy garbage whose first question is ‘Do you know enough about Kevin Rudd…’ plants the idea that the guy is flimsy, the second ‘Whould you say you are better of worse off now…’ attempts to frame the debate economically, the third ‘Do you think the coalition deserves to win…’ is the king hit after the set up of the first two. It is pretty shamefaced, really.
Sample push-poll question: Would you vote for (Candidate’s name) if you knew they supported terrorism?
Not really push polling – push polling is why you proffer a number of questions negative about a party or person then ask a vote on some related issue. The purpose is to put out negative ideas. But by doing things like this you are also more likely to get negative answers.
Crude example
Given that the ALP has a close association with unions and recent reports suggest increased union influence will harm the economy who will you be voting for in the next election?
1. ALP
2. LNP
Or given the Govt’s $34 bn Tax Cut who will you be voting for in the election…
I think it’s a pork narrowing, Kina.
We got some pork – Tiger Brennan pork. Wonder if it is core pork or non-core pork.
The local Murdoch Rag (Manly Daily) published a ‘door-stop’ opinion piece today. It is curious to see two middle aged women express non-liberal programmed thoughts. Two men not quite middle aged claiming they might just toss a coin. One aging Liberal fool claiming Laor is high taxing and AWAs are the best, and one other anti-union dope. The Warringah electorate is a curious beast.
Unfortunately for the Manly Daily the lack of quality of its journalists and editor fails to allow it to shine.
There are two separate aspects to push-polling.
1) to make it one answer more likely (and therefore give
the pollsters a preferred overall result)
and
2) to change the later behaviour of the pollee (eg to influence
their final vote)
Galaxy are probably doing both.
I see, Thankyou all
RE INTEREST RATES
will probably go up when RBA meets in early Nov…. the tax cuts promised by the liberals have probably ensured this will be the case
Conflicting information re the order and number of Galaxy questions. This one is from Mumble’s site.
5 questions http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2007/10/071019poll/poll.swf
I could be terribly wrong but my recollection of the 1996 campaign was that Mr. Keating won it – comfortably. My feeling was, at the time, that on the balance of events – he won most days… other people might have a distinctly different recollection.
The question is, beyond all the hype and hoopla, do election campaigns _really_ matter?
41
Julie Says:
According to Shanahan (whom I normally don’t read but his column was [for him] neutral today), Howard has a king hit policy on health care in the wings.
The problem for Howard is that he has had over 11 years to make the productive changes to health (and a bunch of other areas) and he has stuffed it up, he couldn’t even get the number of doctors and dentists needed right. Any “king hit” policy changes now will be seen very cynically by the electorate, who will simply ask “Why didn’t you fix this years ago?”.
Their was a claim by someone in the previous blog site that the last Galaxy that produced 53/47 asked questions in this negative fashion. A person said his mother/sister was questioned like that. Hence the weird result at the time.
No John, your recollection is correct. John Howard has never been reported as winning campaigns or debates in any election.
Hype and hoopla is right.
Here is as good an explanation of push polling as there is. Still great fter 20 plus year. From the Yes Prime Minister series.
Sir Humphrey: “You know what happens: nice young lady comes up to you. Obviously you want to create a good impression, you don’t want to look a fool, do you? So she starts asking you some questions: Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the number of young people without jobs?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Are you worried about the rise in crime among teenagers?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think there is a lack of discipline in our Comprehensive schools?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think young people welcome some authority and leadership in their lives?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think they respond to a challenge?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Would you be in favour of reintroducing National Service?”
Bernard Woolley: “Oh…well, I suppose I might be.”
Sir Humphrey: “Yes or no?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Of course you would, Bernard. After all you told you can’t say no to that. So they don’t mention the first five questions and they publish the last one.”
Bernard Woolley: “Is that really what they do?”
Sir Humphrey: “Well, not the reputable ones no, but there aren’t many of those. So alternatively the young lady can get the opposite result.”
Bernard Woolley: “How?”
Sir Humphrey: “Mr. Woolley, are you worried about the danger of war?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Are you worried about the growth of armaments?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think there is a danger in giving young people guns and teaching them how to kill?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Do you think it is wrong to force people to take up arms against their will?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “Would you oppose the reintroduction of National Service?”
Bernard Woolley: “Yes”
Sir Humphrey: “There you are, you see Bernard. The perfect balanced sample.”
William I have negotiated the mysteries of paypall and helped widen your bands or whatever it is, since I use so much of them, or it. You provide an excellent service, although you know my view that you ought to restrict discussion to matters psephological and not allow all this mindless trolling. That would make things cheaper for you as well as improving the site enormously.
What could a “king hit on health” possibly be? Announcing more billions for this and that won’t cut it – it’s just more pork and people are too cynical to believe it, or even notice it. Taking over all the hospitals from the states would certainly be big, but Abbott has already poured scorn on the idea, and there’s no guarantee the punters would approve. What could it be? The Howard Cancer Cure?
Howard opening the Granny Smith Festival as of now.
Are there any worms in those apples?
Kina (69) I though a core pork was where South Africans left their motor vehicles.
On fire this morning GG.
Push polling (as it was originally coined) was used to shape a voters opinion. This was done on a large scale, tens of thousands of phone calls – each voter was targeted personally with dubious questions/statements about a political opponent in order to produce a negative response.
The instance here is to produce a poll result that is gained while concurrently asking negative qualitative questions. The published poll can then used to supposedly represent the opinions of others. I guess if people call this push-polling as well, then it is!
Doorbell – my YRW signage
What motive would Galaxy have for publishing a dodgy poll? They were the closest in ‘04? It could just be the 1 in 20 that is plain wrong. I’m not in the league of many of you pollsters, but it does seem to me that there has been a “narrowing” trend over the last few months. It’s just that if this trend was to bear fruit for the PM then the election would need to be held in 2016.
Adam, a national, fully-funded program over six years to restore the common leech to the practice of medicine.
Hell! Gotta go! Glen’s disappeared again!
Mark, check this: http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/10/16/the-long-view/
There has been no narrowing, on the contrary a ‘widening’.
Crikey Whitey at post 68 says:”I think it’s a pork narrowing, Kina.”‘
Actually, I thing it’s a margin of error narrowing.
The Coalition’s still stuffed.
Thanks Pancho, but I thought I saw a graphic somewhere showing a teensy weensy change over the past few months. But I am but a poor novice. But my first Q was about What’s in it for Galaxy. Surely if they publish dodgy polls, this will affect their credibility?
but see, in a poll cycle – you only have to be really accurate on the last one before an election. That’s the only one where there is a real obvious proof of correspondance to reality.
So, make sure you get that last one before election day right and for the next 3 years you’ve got street cred (galaxy) or none… (morgan.
Mark, payment of pipers and tunes is the only reason I can see for two opportunistic hits on Rudd.
I agree that is a valid question. I can only posit that even these pollsters have their own interests, backers etc. Not necessarily in an overtly partisan sense, but maybe one paper or another wishes closer numbers, want to tap into a particular narrative, spice up an uneven race? In any sense I guess that they don’t all seek the same numbers and angles, and polling is far from a pure science. And if they think they have taken the wrong track at a later stage they could always ‘push’ in the opposite direction. In short: I dunno.
and yeah, I think polls can influence people’s perception of events. I think there are some ppl who hear “68% of ppl are unconcerned by ‘x’…” and who find themselves thinking “why yeah, storm in a teacup really”.
There is a more subtle and diffuse form of push polling.
Sounds as though Howard has switched to auto pilot. Speaking at the apple fest, he referred to “Mr Speaker.”
Rupert Murdoch said in New York he would be sitting back and not supporting either side.
Phil, but he also said to look at ‘our’ editorials in our papers.
Having seen Sol Lebovic from newspoll the other night on the 7:30 report I would think that there’s good reason to suspect that the Murdoch press apply pressure on its pollsters to toe the party line. Lebovic has been pushing the Labor ’soft’ vote all year despite the fact that most of the data suggest unprecedented levels of hard support – which is the reason that theres been no volatility in polls despite the govt throwing everything but the kitchen sink at Labor. Lebovic was even saying that the early polls in the election campaign would probably not indicate strongly the final result. John Stirton from AC neilson strongly disagreed.
Galaxy, being the tabloid pollster for news limited is dodgy for this reason. THere was massive pressure from the Govt and its backers for these recent polls to give the coalition a sniff – a poor result after the tax bribe would have effectively scuttled the coalition campaign. WHen John Howard says Galaxy is his favourite poll you have course to worry.
Phil
Murdoch of course always says he impartial. See Fox ‘fair and balanced”Newscoverage in the US . The GG has been embarressingly one sided from the get go and the News limited tabloids pretty much the same. But Murdochs a businessman and when the writings on the wall for Howard he’ll sell the old man out in ten seconds flat. Thats I think why the newlimited tabloids started to move over to rudd a couple of months ago – the polls were just too consistent. Since then they seem to have wandered back over to to Howard – probably to have one more shot at getting some movement for Howard.
I’m with you on that.
I think a better strategy would have been to come out hard from the beginning. Ads take a while to work their way through into the public mind, and if you wait too long you miss the boat. Plus if you put them out early you can really help to frame the debate for the rest of the campaign.
Case in point: the unions put their workchoices ads out months ago and it worked a treat. Only problem is, they’ve disappeared again.
I think Labor should have blitzed the airwaves for the first couple of weeks of the campaign. Then, if necessary, dropped off for a couple of weeks before ramping it up at the end.
A large portion of the public (and certainly swinging voters) doesn’t pay much attention to the news. You need to hit them with the ads while they are watching australian idol.
So…. has Labor not put ads up because it is saving its money for later in the campaign? Or were they not able to get decent ad spots at such late notice after the election was called?
Who do you trust ?
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2007/10/18/shock-howard-cabinet-not-representative-of-australian-workforce/#more-4386
Saw this elsewhere:
“Today’s West Poll has Liberals retaining Hasluck and Stirling easily and winning Cowan 54/46 TPP (Libs 51 primary). No mention of Swan”
Can anybody confirm?
William,
Tossed some pennies in the hat…..excellent site…informative ,gutsy,wide-ranging but above all I love the humour!
With various election strategies and push-polling, I wonder if Cheney offered JWH some help with his campaign when he visited recently. Surely they didn’t just discuss the roses at Kirribilli! Am suspicious of that master planner/puppeteer!
Glen -48 It is on the record that Howard has ‘lost’ every campaign since 1996. He just isn’t that good unless he has a Tampa, 7/11 or some other big issue to carry him. Rudd will slice and dice Howard in the debate tomorrow nite. Labor will then go on to build momentum until Howard is crushed on 24 Nov !!
102
The swinging voters are exactly that – swingers up till the last minute. There’s very little you can do now.
The phoney campaign has sorted out the thinkers and rusted-ons already – thebattle for the swingers will be in the last week.
Part of the reason for them swinging is the short attention span when it comes to politics – they’re just as likely to get bored and reactive if they’re seeing the same thing consistently.
Unless there’s an utter campaign failure – the blitz will happen.
This first week, and possible the second is about stretching out the phoney campaign as much as possible as it has undoubtedly been a successful one for the ALP.
Those who are interested now aren’t changing their mind based upon simple advertising – in fact there probably aren’t any changing their mind at all.
Last westpoll had ALP 51.6 to 48.4 2PP statewide. About a week ago.l Dont know anything about particualr seats.
I laughed when i read this on the SMH link someone posted earlier.
The release went on to list 23 “non-policies” which included pledges like “We will not abolish awards, we will not force people off awards, we will not have a $3 dollar an hour youth wage, we will not have foreigners control Telstra, we will not destroy forests” and a few absolute lulus like, “We will not have a GST, we will not introduce new taxes or increase existing ones, and ended: “And above all, we will not break promises”.
And its little (and some quite large), landmines like this that Rattus has left spread all around the place that will get him now.
Tax neutralized. Does anyone now more about the line that was run on the ABC last night that the tax policy from Rattus, is substantially what Swan advocated about middle of last year? If thats substantiated then it makes Rattus and Cossie look a bit silly.
#105 Megan re Cheney
If you want to be very suspicious, get hold of, probably library, Worse than Watergate The Secret Presidency of George W Bush. Author John W Dean.
ISBN 1-74066-174-5
Totally disagree Ashley (I6). I think it has ended up a great week for Labor. They have at least neutralised the Government’s alleged strengths on tax and the economy and created a beautiful segue into two of the major things Labor wants to talk about for the rest of the campaign – education and health.
As Rod Cameron noted on Lateline last night, this week has just been the preliminary sparring. The real stuff starts next week and Labor has plenty to work with.
The oxygen’s gone out of the government line of attack. The only thing going for them was “pressure on Rudd.” No more pressure, no more line of attack.
39 Howard Hater I bet in the end council amalgamations will count for zero in the wash up. The hot button issues are Work Choices Global Warming & no nuclear power stations, and according to research the ALP owns eight out of ten top issues. Council amalgamations was not there.
110-I have it,bought when John Dean was out here and heard him speak.Very sobering from one on the inside.
Darn — it would have been a great week for Labor if they hadn’t gone backwards in the polls.
Yeah that amalgamations stuff seems like something that National Party tried to whip up but went nowhere.
Talking about the National Party do they have any policies?
It’s only 2-3 pts 2PP in the first week don’t lose heart, if Labor only loses 1pt 2PP per week from here it will be an honourable loss with the small target strategy. And we will all be able to praise KR for how well he campaigned eh?
Thanks for the feedback on Galaxy. Poor old Morgan, it reminds me about the joke where the farmer lists all his achievements for the local community and how no-one remembers him for this. “But if you F$@K one poll”.
I find it hard to fathom some of the MSM commentary, particularly when the ALP primary is so high. So could we see something like 1998 when Beasley polled higher but still lost? Reading Adams post yesterday I agree it is very unlikely.
Don Wigan, i just got your message, my dad was a foundation member of Westies and their treasurer for years, my aunt and uncle ran the footballers club for years, and my uncle was captain after the war, even though i was assured of admittance to the grand finals i used to sleep over outside the Adelaide oval gates with my pals to get admittance, we used to have a ball, the matches against Port were the special ones, we used to get up on the hill and taunt each other lol, when i was very small i used to sit under the diningroom table quiet as a mouse while the committee chose the players for the next day, we lived in the heart of the west end then, Jimmy Wright was my hero, most of our players worked for the fire brigade in those days, dad was a lifetime member and delegate of the S.A.N.F.L.
Why do people feel that Labor has to win the first week? Aren’t they a mile in front? The ALP has its own election agenda to run and will run it. You don’t hold the election after the first week of the campaign and besides, even you did, polls are suggesting right now Labor would win the election easily. For heaven sake chill out. The best is yet to come.
Gary,
Labor is being defined and not rebutting it.
Me-too, glass jaw, union domination – these buzz words are settling into the general population, like a spring flower they blossom in “due season” , ie one week or so before polling day.
Labor appears to have analysed 2004 to death and turned up to the wrong football game.
Amen GB,
Rudd will start tomorrow night by kicking the living Sh*t out of Howard, then, come monday – unleash hell!
Steve @103. 70% Unionists versus 72% Lawyers and Bankers. I know which one I prefer.
Howard talks about an unprecedented form of Government if Labor is elected. Surely he is already sitting on an unprecedented level of nonrepresentativeness?
You might enjoy my first efforts at YouTubing with my new MacBook
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rprEw0xIe_k
Re the polls – nothing for the government yet. Labor’s primary vote went up on AC N. Stirton said on TV that Labor’s primary vote has been solid all year and it wil be hard for the govt to shift it in the next 5 weeks. In other words, just watch the primary vote and the preferred PM figures. Relax, Labor’s on track. Sorry ESJ and Glen.
Labor is very well positioned. The first week was all about the economy and the polls reflected (but only minisculy) the tax bribe. Rudd chipped away, as you do when you’ve got 6 weeks to go and then produced a clever but cautious tax plan which from my reading has got good favourable media coverage. The campaign will soon move onto Labor’s strengths (ie everything but the economy). I do agree that Labor need to get down and dirty occassionally and rebuke some of the rubbish being thrown out there by the increasingly desperate tories. Costellos remark re communists was probably one of the most sad and desperate comments by a senior politican that I can remember in recent history.
AnthonyL –
Keep up the good work, dont argue the merits, make the relative merits argument. Exactly what the government wants you to do. Well done.
Ashley, Labor didn’t go backwards in the polls. Check their primary vote.
Sorry ESJ – that’s pure BS and you know it. Those ads are having no effect.
116 yes say things that make them unelectable like ‘I don’t think a woman could do the work in Leichardt’ and prattle on about council amalgamations when no one cares.
#111 -
“As Rod Cameron noted on Lateline last night, this week has just been the preliminary sparring. The real stuff starts next week and Labor has plenty to work with.”
I saw that and laughed and laughed. That buffoon Cameron was trying to rescue the week for Krudd and his crew but basically gave the game away when he lamely suggested that the “real” campaign would actually start next week. I wonder if that’ll be the Labor line every Friday?
AnthonyL ‘
Re the coalition being full of lawyers and bankers. Yes. Why doesn’t rudd use that…he needs to go on the front foot more often.
Sean – “Costellos remark re communists was probably one of the most sad and desperate comments by a senior politican that I can remember in recent history.” And will be recognised as such by the majority of voters. As usual Costello is going over the top.
How scary – yes our parliamentarians (ie lawmakers) are lawyers. Ooh!
Labcest is Labcest however you guys try to disguise it.
Here’s the clip of that script, Growler et al. Thanks to George who posted it in comments at: http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/10/19/the-hitchhikers-guide-to-the-galaxy/
“BTW everyone, not sure if you guys have seen the Yes PM episode where Sir Humphrey explains “surveys†to Bernard:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM90nx25Tys
Ashley (114) I see where you’re coming from, but the fact remains if we were voting today Labor would win in a landslide. All they need to do from here is draw the rest of the campaign and they’ll win.
Personally I think they will do better than just draw the campaign. I think they will win it clearly, because they have so much to work with and because Rudd – as he has shown all year – is just too clever for Howard.
Steve, when you have something vaguely intelligent to say I might respond.
Very true Steven Kaye 129,
Much like our own Adam here , trying to pass himself of as some sort of objective expert.
Fagin 20
Australians love smug, look at Rudds polling numbers for evidence
Darn — I agree, Rudd has shown he is a clever politician so far this year. So I was a little bemused by this week’s effort.
Labor is still out in front but until this week they looked unassailable.
Now the government has a sniff.
Pardon the pun, but when an a**licker like Howard has a sniff you can’t help but feel uncomfortable.
GB,
If your not worried at 53-47, at what level will you worry?
51-49, 49-51? Or do you prefer to look at primary – what’s your squeal point GB?
Steven Kaye (129)
Because you’re quoting me I decided to waste a little time and read your rubbish this time (but only this time).
If you found Rod Cameron’s comments that funny you’ll be splitting your sides at what they’ll be saying after the government gets rolled in five weeks time.
So we had the dead cat bounce, boys and girls, and next poll will be business as usual 55/45. And that’s where it will be at the end.
I suspect the union anti-workchoices ads will start up with about 2 weeks of the campaign to go. Coupled with Minchin’s speech to HR Nichols I’d imagine they could put together a very effective negative campaign demonstrating the risks of re-electing this government. If the ads are really good it should lock in a steady primary for the ALP.
When do Family First announce preference deals? A deal with the ALP could put one more nail in the Coalition coffin, leaving them to scrounge for preferences from the CDP, Fishing Party and other assorted groups.
I think people overestimate Rudd’s capacity as a politician. He’s pretty wooden and, to me, lacks the street smarts of Howard. This doesn’t really bother me though, as I’d rather have a PM the public can see through.
All in all, I feel no less confident of a Labor win at the election and I doubt the polling will change this much for me. 5 more weeks to go? I wish I could just fast forward and have it over with.
Howard wanted a long election campaign because he thought it suited him. So we have had a week of phoney campaign. Thus negating the long campaign.
Howard needed a big start so he started on tax – then nothing. He wasted the momentum.
Now Rudd has released his educat.. er tax policy, what does Howard do?
The Debate will signal the start of the campaign proper and Howard has been denied his “economic” high ground.
ESJ — if Labor’s primary stays above 45 I’ll be happy. If it drops below that level in the next couple of weeks I’ll be concerned. And if it goes to 41 or below I will curse and begin construction of a Howard voodoo puppet.
I think Labor can win with a primary of 42, but anything less than that I’d be surprised.
The beauty of the Goverment ads about union control is when the ACTU ads start they will be automatically discounted as vested interest by most swinging voters.
That would be monumentally stupid IMO. Why wait until so late? They ran a workchoices ad campaign for over a month earlier this year… surely they are getting ready to fire it up again for a *minimum* of the last 4 weeks of the campaign?
ESJ – my squeal point is a long way off a poll that suggests Labor will win 23 seats and where its leader has a PPM break of over 12 percent. Also one poll does not make a trend. Obviously this is your squeal point ESJ?
While Labor’s primary vote holds in the mid to late 40’s they are in excellent shape because of how the minor parties operate now. No sweat.
Good stuff LTEP (143) Like your confidence. Keep up the good work.
Because Ashley, they’d want the ads to be fresh in the voters minds when they’re finally making their minds up.
Repetitive ads become stale very quickly.
So GB, anything under Labor primary of 45. Well I think that is about 2 points away.
Strongly disagree. The workchoices ads hit the spot because they are close to home. “Unions running the government” is a distant threat, but losing penalty rates hits you directly. The union ad campaign is very well done and there is very little the government can do to counter it.
The problem with the anti union ads ESJ is that Workchoices stinks to high heaven out there. The unions don’t. The unions will tap into a very strong community perception, the government hasn’t.
Who said you have to run the same set of ads for 5 weeks? The unions have many different angles they can attack workchoices from… there is no danger of them becoming stale. I’m sure they’ve got a whole bagful of ideas to pick from and won’t just keep plugging the same old ads.
If this is but just a sample of the standard of “journalism” that we can expect from now until the election, then god help us all!
{All in the family: superhighway for kids, porn pipe for dad }
{Granny, quite inexplicably, comes out of it with a new hip.
And just like a Hi-5 DVD, there is a secret appeal to red-blooded dads; after the kids are in bed, Jack and Briony’s educational online superhighway becomes a high-speed porn pipe, subsidised to the tune of 50 per cent by the taxpayer. Hooray!}
{”This is the toolbox of the 21st century!” cried Kevin with passion, as he scooped up a laptop that looked – frankly – more like an artificial reef from the 20th.
But he was so excited as he waved it, and did his little laptop dance (where did he learn that?), that you could easily forgive him.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/all-in-the-family-superhighway-for-kids-porn-pipe-for-dad/2007/10/19/1192301044972.html
Annebel Crabb, it’s time for a change of occupation for you me thinks.
Ah Edward @ 140,
I see you and Liberal screaming harpies must be losing the debate as you have returned back to what you do best. Providing gratuitous smears and negative personal reflections.
I would stack Adam’s and Rod Cameron’s credibility against yours any day of the week.
Meantime, ignoring the useless troll action-reaction story episode number whatever, it was interesting that Abbott noted that the contender has won the ‘debate’, citing Beasley, Latham et al, suggesting it somehow favours the contender.
It will be interesting to see how many people are wearing “Bring Back the Worm” T shirts after Sunday Night.
I am not going to watch it because it will only give me heartburn hating everything JWH says and hoping/praying that Rudd dosent lick the bottom left corner of his lip too often or say “I beleive” too much.
A first year university lecturer once said to me after marking my first essay.., I don’t give a damn what you beleive in… Delete the words I beleive from the start of each paragraph and back up what you say with simple, verifiable facts… convince me with raw facts that support your argument and don’t invite trouble by making assumptions about the views of others or interpreting their discourse. Tell me what you know to be right and nothing else.
Every time Rudd says “I beleive… I want to turn him into Hawke who could make something he knew what total bullshit seem like gospel truth which no one dare question….passion, commitment, conviction – thats the perception Rudd needs to present- Beleifs are for religous nuts standing at pulpits.
What do others think ? Will Rudd be convincing as a would be PM tomorrow night ? I think he can be if he actually wants to be PM more than anything else he has ever done in his life: otherwise, he will be probably win the debate but come off as Howard Lite again: ewww.
As long as the ads have a very simple message they should be effective. The fact is the government introduced something they knew would make workers worse off, were warned about it repeatedly and still went ahead. A senior Minister in the government has claimed he doesn’t think it went far enough. Can we trust a government that has knowingly discounted the interests of its people again?
To me, this is a very persuasive argument and should hit home when it counts.
I have to laugh all year we have been saying 60-40 was never going to happen with such a strong economy and a goodish Govt.
come election time the result would be between 53-56 with the ALP winning somewhere around 80-100 seats, now along comes the campaign and the polls show a slight movement back toward the middle of this band and all of a sudden the Liberals thing they are home and the ALP types are panicking.
please we have seen several seat based polls where the swings are smaller in the marginals and larger in the safe seats again nothing as changed all year.
The first week was good for the Liberals, while the ALP took until Friday to fire up, but it is only week 1 with some 35 days left so in a way Rod Cameron is right.
I saw a letter from the ALP candidate for Deakin, and I’m sorry but the letter was poorly written, it was all about the Howard Govt, nothing about what he would do for Deakin or how a Rudd Govt would improve the lives of the people of Deakin.
It’s first paragraph was negative and the tone never improved, if things don’t improve then I suspect Deakin will be held by the Liberals.
Ashley (147)
Don’t forget that the unions are planning to spend a fortune on this campaign. It’s highly unlikely that they’ll leave it to the last minute.
I’m just waiting to see which ads they run and if there are any new ones.
Did anyone else notice that Rudd’s laptop yesterday wasn’t exactly the most modern looking thing you’ve ever seen? Surely he could have pulled out an apple notebook instead, they are much sexier (no, I don’t own one, I’ve got a piece of sh*t dell).
No ESJ, Labor could win with 42% which is just not going to happen anyway given the issues, policies and what has occurred all year in the polling. I see Labor’s rock primary vote being in the order of 45 – 47 percent. The Libs may manage 42 – 43 percent. An easy win for Labor. Tell me ESJ what is going to turn voters away from Labor in the large numbers that is needed that hasn’t done so already? Tax hasn’t done it. Negative campaigns against Rudd haven’t done it. Calling the election hasn’t done it. I can’t see the nuclear issue being a positve for the Libs. Nor IR or Iraq and not health and education (Labor’s strong areas). Any suggestions?
Just on the lawyer thing. My experience with lawyers, particularly in corporate/litigation is that they exist to make more work for themselves. And if you want to talk about “closed shops”, restrictive work practises etc. just pop into your local court house.
GG 156
The person who most consistently follows the party line on this blog is of course Adam.
I’d go easy on some of the tory posters here….imagine how you’d feel if you were in their shoes. It might explain why their posts are heavy on vitriol and light on analysis. Best leave them to themselves.
Yeah Ashley, that was funny.
Good to hear.
I’m a great believer in the power of advertising, and the union ads are the most powerful ones out there: they reinforce a strong perception which is already in the community, and they hit close to home.
If the unions do this ad campaign right, and splash a lot of money on it, the government will get smashed.
BMWofVictoria, I agree the ALP campaign material is awful. Seriously, whoever’s running the campaign should be sacked even if the ALP win. Poor slogan (’New Leadership’ and ‘I have a plan for the future’ suck even more than ‘Go for Growth’ which, in my opinion, is terrible). Terrible letters. Next to no sign that the candidates care about local issues. I can’t really think of one thing the campaign team has gotten right so far, and like it or not the first week of the campaign is important for setting the tone.
I don’t think it matters if you look at Liberals or ALP people for they are the worst of losers
Who reads the mail outs? I throw them out without reading a word no matter who it is.
Minchin’s moment
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiUtvnwjkTw
Oh, and more on topic…
The Westpoll certainly backs up what I’ve felt for a long time. The ALP will win no seats in WA and will lose Cowan but not Swan. If we need to wait til WA to get a result I’d call it for the Libs.
In response to Sean. Thanks.
In response to Edward St John. See previous posts about the merits of going negative second in a campaign.
I have no doubt that Rudd and Labor are prepared to go on the attack. They are simply waiting for the appropriate “season” as KRudd puts it. That time between when people are really starting to get sick of the Government’s negativity but well before the election. Prediction some time toward end of next week after Howard launches another couple of blatantly offensive ads.
The attack ads will be focussed on the Howard Government’s record on WorkChoices. And they will be balanced out by plenty of Kevin ad’s promoting his positive policy agenda.
I don’t like attack ads but unfortunately they work and the Libs have no inhibitions about using them.
And the negative approach keeps coming.
The ad campaign will go the way it always does: that is there will be a blitz in the last 2 weeks. You can’t view the campaign in terms of rushing out and kicking goals from time on. THe press play into this by ’scoring’ each day, which is just ludicrous. You’ve got to pace yourself, and that includes firing your ads at the right time.
By the way, the telegraph in their ’scoring’ of yesterday said that Howard got off to a flyer by saying to the chaser guys “I’d find you funnier if you picked on people who were alive”. As they were picking on him, he seemed to be suggesting that he was dead! Is it possible that Howard had passed away and nobody noticed?
Gary in 1998 Bruce Billson on Election eve sent out a letter and a booklet called Dunkley Destiny some polling day many voters commented on it while the ALP had spent the campaign taking crap without explaining what they actually would do for the country while there candidate spent the campaign in the local State MPs office smoking.
I’m sorry but apart from the 1999 Victorian State Election the ALP have shown a real inability to campaign.
Wow, the coalition just wont let up. Labor made up of 70% unions! You’d think we were still in the bloody seventies! LOL.
You conservatives must be so PROUD, needing to rely on all that mud throwing at unions from the past.
Suppose you have got NOTHING else to go on.
No vision, no innovation, no ideas, no plans for the future. It really is time to get rid of that opprtunistic incompetent warmongering sixties PM of yours.
Face it, either way, Howard is at the end of his career and the people prefer Rudd to Smirk.
Where is this alleged new Westpoll? This is the most recent Westpoll, according to the News website
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22540489-5012863,00.html
If there was a bad WA poll for Labor you can sure it would be here:
http://www.news.com.au/index/0,23601,1245,00.html
Which leads me to ask: LTEP, just whose side are you on here? For a supposed Labor supporter, you’re doing a very good job of spreading Liberal lies and disinformation. I suggest you come clean about your loyalties
I think its good for Labor to send out the positive ads first while the govt is running their mudslinging. WHen Labor role out their mud, it might hopefully then look like a justifiable retort….under provocation.
Did anyone read the piece in the Australian that tried to argue that Howard-style assimilationism is not racism – it frankly made me sick to my stoumach.
Adam, he’s a rusted on conservative. Honestly I picked it the first of his comments that I read.
new thread on Westpoll up
we all know who is who here, pretty hard to hide what you are about, it is not a kindergarten.
If I was the ALP I would respond to the 70% union claim with the following.
‘For 100 years the ALP has proudly been the party of all working Australians regardless if they wear overhauls, a shirt or a Nurses uniform
(insert picture of a nurse, Tradies, Businessman and a Farmer)
while the Liberal Party claims to stand for what
Home buying families yet many 30 somethings are working full time without the ability to own their own home
Small Business yep burdoned with GST and Workchoices and lost of profits for people are needing to cover the increased cost of living caused by Howard.
Vote ALP for real leadership.
I actually think “New Leadership” is a very good slogan, but must agree the Labor campaign team have to date very ordinary… Hopefully things will improve.. but campaigning and Federal elections has not been a strong point federally for Labor in the 21st century. The union scare has hit town and some are swallowing it.. “i talk to alot of migrants and many are saying oh i’m unsure about Labor and what they may do in government” Labor like 2004 needs to knock this on its head, and at present they look like wet lettuce leafs…
Adam, It’s up here. New thread
Galaxy poll(?)
For Labor to come out of this with 53/47, after seeing the loaded questions (it seems they were asked in this order) is really good news for Rudd.
Given it included the Coalition, alone, tax policy and negativity for Rudd, this poll, in the real polling world, looks more 55 or 56 to Labor.
It’s a fantastic result for Labor.
Anyone got a link to the supposed “push polling” Galaxy questions?
Isn’t it strange how we’re getting seat polling seemingly favouring the coalition at this point in time? Strange that.
Ashley
http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2007/10/071019poll/poll2.swf
I think that you are being a bit tough on Ed Husic. He was not the best sort of candidate that’s for sure but the ALP were outspent at least 3:1 in Greenway. Scott Morrison made sure that Mrs Markus’s campaign was flawless and she did all the right things herself in the run up to the election.
The Libs put in a huge effort with workers from the Naw Shore manning booths that had never seen a Lib on before.
The demographics of Greenway had changed substantially especially north of the railway plus there was the loss of the incumbency factor in that Mossfield, altho’ errr… low profile in Canberra was very poplular personally in and around Blacktown.
Must agree with you on that but West Australian has never been strong for Labor, as this poll shows results in June than October with Labor trailing at both points… The polls that do worry me are newspoll.. listening to Lebovic on the 7.30 report the other night he made some interesting comments regarding being in front and behind and they were contrary to the other pollster present.. seemed to suggest that the coalition would close the gap and hang on.. Just makes me wonder what the Murdoch executives have said to the pollsters.. what kind of relationship is it?
I for one don’t trust those Murdoch dailys’ they make up stuff and continually give the government very good coverage…
Thanks Scorpio. That is indeed push polling.
Australians like to see a bit of the ratbag in their sportspeople and in their politicians. Steve Waugh can be an emissary and diplomat as Captain, but can sledge with the best of them. Likewise I think Rudd could bung on the rat act a bit more than he is. He is capable of it, at least in his writing as this shows
http://www.australianpolitics.com/words/2004/archives/00000168.shtml
but seems to be a little too “collegiate” and reserved (someone above called it wooden… good word), as if he’s back in the Public Service or the diplomatic corps and everybody’s so pally and friendly and polite.
By contrast, Howard plays the conservative, measured Father Of The Nation, but during campaigns takes off like a ravenous dog after a particularly juicy bone.
Howard seems to want to win no matter what, with every fibre of his being. While Rudd obviously does want to win, it seems that’s only if it’s the “rules”. What Rudd doesn’t realise is that this is the Grand Final. He’s not at footy practice anymore, practising his goal kicks from the sideline, swearing under his breath when he misses one but nothing more consequential than that. Out in the middle right now, in the Grand Final, every goal he misses is a missed opportunity to put as many points on the board as possible. He can’t ask for another kick like he can at practice. This is the real deal and mistakes aren’t allowed, especially by the other side. Miss a kick, drop a pass, fail to tackle and you’ve missed vital points, or allowed the other side to score them against you.
The umpire is of course the MSM and they’re on Howard’s side. Rudd won’t get any joy from them unless he shows he’s prepared to mix it up and match Howard’s tactics and is prepared to take every opportunity to help his own cause. Because if he won’t help himself, why should the pundits? And why should the people vote for someone who doesn’t have the killer instinct?
Whoever the geniuses are at Labor HQ that have told Rudd he can slack off and coast in by mentioning WorkChoices, or “Education Revolution” (how that slogan grates on my nerves!) they should be taken out and shot, being immediately replaced by winners, sledgers, cheats and n’er-do-wells… anything but the bunch of pin-stripe suited snake oil salesmen they’ve got running their campaign at the moment.
Rudd must not only want to win, he must look like he wants to win, or else doubts will creep in abotu just what he will do when it comes time for him to play for Australia for real.
What kind of candidate turns down a radio interview?
A five minute interview in a key seat such as Hinkler..
Must say Labor Headquarters knows alot about selecting candidates in Queensland…Well at least he isn’t a lawyer i suppose… Just hope Mike Kaiser was not in on this…
anyways back in reality
1.worstchoices
2.EB
3.health
and people are going to be swayed by “filthy lucre”
not on your nellie
ps gary bruce -methinks that the rats are scuttling together,crowing at the dawn of a new age-an imperium even-while slowly outside in the real world the Libs continue their slow roast over the coals of building discontent
Bushfire mentioned on an earlier thread how the time comes to pay the piper (Gvt ads etc).From the MSM point of view who gives a flying what they say-the MSM is merely repaying its debt to the Gvt.
in essence – Labor on track to obliterate the far right Lib Gvt
I think after reading those questions Galaxy has indeed been into the “push polling†business. Anyone surprised given the way Briggs spruiks for the coalition?
NewScientist magazine may be good news for Labor. It has an article about why people vote the way they do after having studied 30 years of elections results around the world. The answer people arrive at their choice via social networking. So if 3 or so years of gradual social networking opinions have arrived at a vote for Labor it has been a personally arrived at choice – it is not likely to be swayed too much by campaigning – unless you get a 9/11.
“The natural pattern behind our votes”
NewScientist 13/10/07
Quotes:
Voting follows the same pattern regardless of country or economics, and it could all be based on networking.
Analysis of election results over 30 years in different countries shows that, for each political party, voting follows the same patter, regardless of nationality, culture, history or economics.
Using a simple computer model, they have shown that the person-to-person process is enough to generate the universal pattern observed in the data.
These influences perculate through the social network until everyone has made a decision. The physicists results fit the real data almost exactly.
I wonder whether either party is going to announce something big tomorrow. I would bet that the Coalition is going to launch something.
Thanks for the great site; it’s my homepage for the election campaign. Just put in $10 (on my wife, Cindy’s, paypal… so u don’t think I’m fibbing…lol).
That West Oz marginal poll can’t be right… surely
Bushfire
I agree with most of what you said. There is a rehearsed polish creeping into Rudd and the rest of Labor which smacks of over coaching. Clearly being so far out in front they want to play it conservatively and not make any mistakes. The Geniuses you mention are the same ones Keating mentioned recently – gartrell, gray etc who cant get out of bed without consulting a poll. Rudd is boring even me in his interviews – the repeated mantras, the need to stay on message, the daft words like ’season’. This could open the door for Howard. Rudd needs to show a bit of the fire he showed in parliament when attacking costello. He can do this without losing his cool, since the govt is giving him all the provocation he needs. If this election for Labor degenerates into a fashion parade they stand a chance of getting rolled.
Regarding Galaxy – It’s interesting that it is the only poll so far to come up with 53/47 – the same as it did last June against the trend. Nielsen has it at 54/46 and Morgan (for what it’s worth) 55.5/45.5.
After seeing those questions, it seems Mr Briggs may have indeed been trying to create some artificial momentum for the government. Trouble is, artificial momentum does not win you elections.
Westpoll Surveys have pretty low sample sizes i think. Besides, given the somewhat right of center leaning of the West i take everything in there (except the movie adverts and the weather report) with a truckload of salt.
Re Bushfires 2005 Rudd speech link.
THanks for this. I’d forgotten that Rudd is not just a serious intellect but he has venom when he needs it – as Costello found out. The opening line on his demolition of Downer is a classic:
“Somewhere deep in the Adelaide Hills on Saturday night, Alexander Downer must have been playing battleships in his bathtub when he suddenly came up with a seriously cunning plan. Namely, to reinvent Australian post-war political history and argue that Labor under John Curtin was not the real defender of Australian liberty.”
The quarterly Essay Rudd wrote last year on social democracy was similiarly brilliant. As you say, I think we need to see a bit more of this cos at the moment he’s being seriously muzzled.
@ 201. Sean, nah.
The Australian electorate is smart, over time. It can see a government that consists of unrepresentive trolls.
#121 –
“Me-too, glass jaw, union domination – these buzz words are settling into the general population ”
Yep, Edward, especially union domination. I was speaking to a local handyman this morning who said he was especially concerned about all the unionists in Labor’s ranks. He also applauded the Government’s decision to scrap unfair dismissal laws and said it was a real boon to small business.
I think the fact that the ALP has decided to hide Combet and Shorten is very telling. The Government should start running ads pointing this out.
Meanwhile, at the Granny Smith festival in Bennelong, the PM was absolutely mobbed by fans and supporters. It was extraordinary. I almost felt sorry for McKew – almost.
Re: 121 million govt. advertising spend over a year (or 2 billion over eleven). Ramsey’s SMH article today alludes correctly to a twist of MSM headlines. Suspicion of Galaxy’s numbers, particularly in light of executive bias, are also worrying especially when subtle ‘push polling’ accusations are being tossed about here. Throw in stacking of our ABC board, the sudden shift to Sky as preferred carrier by the PM and legislation allowing broader ownership of the media… I think back to Howard’s appraisal of Lynton Crosby as Australia’s K Rove, and his use of fundamentalist churches.
An article on Crosby/Textor can be found here:
http://trevorcook.typepad.com/weblog/political_strategies/index.html
I’ve got a brief summary of the “push polling” discrepancies up here:
http://fairnews.com.au/content/view/50/1/
#168 –
” Next to no sign that the candidates care about local issues.”
Yep. One of the reasons why the Coalition is going to win is that their candidates are so much better at working their seats than Labor’s.
The Your Rights at Work caravan rolled into Wagga today. I went and did my bit and I must say that the message of rights at work is easy to sell, even in a safe Nats seat: it was easier than handing out free denture clinic visits to Collingwood supporters.
Lib supporters will want to be wearing brown trousers when the WorkChoices scare campaign kicks in.
Libpest, a collective noun to describe the asinine trolls on this site
JJ
Quite frightening. Why the Libs released their tax policy so early on was always a question, and if momentum is what they were after this goes a long way toward explaining the coordinated push.
Labor must retake the initiative and not let the coalition dictate terms. Particularly if they’re intent on attacking (as per Crosby/Textor) our strengths. We cannot afford to drop the ball, which is exactly why Keating warned against proponents of the two step approach. We cannot afford to be aced on education and health and I bet that is what the libs are planning… should we get our policy out now?
“Mobbed by fans and supporters .”
Steven, how much were they paid? Are they on AWAs?
He also did not quite understand that he was, physically, in Bennelong. “… Mr Speaker …”
When I make an apple pie using Granny Smiths, I remove the core. Otherwise, people tend to choke.
Gecko: I think Rudd needs to emphatically win the debate and launch into the next week with a big policy announcement – either on health or education. Hopefully that’s what he’s planning.
The issue is that the Coalition has had all of the resources of the government beuracracy to work on their policies. If the Coalition out-does Rudd on health and education policy, then it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
It has been a very interesting week of campaining. I have no idea how Rudd got away with essentially copying the lib tax plan, but he did, and kudos to him. Pete must be going nuts.
The way I see it is that Labor WILL win three seats in Adelaide. No less, because the swing required is only a few percent, which is obviously going to eventuate. No more, because Sturt will be just out of their reach (Mia was trailling by a couple of points at the start of the campaign, and one suspects that given Pyne is now on the campaign trail, there won’t be enough leaking votes to see her over the line.)
Boothby will not fall – the ’tiser recently predicted that there could be a swing TO the libs in that seat. An unqualified disaster.
So there are three swinging seats in SA, two in Tasmania, and let’s assume that WA is ultimately a draw. That leaves Labor needing the other 11 seats from the Eastern States. Which, of course, are the states with the most seats in them.
An early prediction. Labor will win with 85 seats, but Howard will hold his seat in Bennelong. Gutsy if I may say so myself
However. ‘Me too’ is starting to bite – interesting that the Greens keep using the line, despite hoping Labor gets up this election. The media loves it. Whether or not it changes votes remains to be seen.
For all those discussing what primary vote Labor needs to attain to win the election it is worth considering all elections since 1983. This is similar to what i pointed out in a thread yesterday, but it is worth stressing to the doomsayers. There have been 9 elections since 1983 (inclusive), 5 won by the ALP and 4 by the coalition.
In every election won by the ALP since 1983, they have obtained over 40% of the primary, apart from 1990 when they won with 39.8%.
Every election the ALP has lost since 1983, they have obtained LESS than 40%, apart from 1998 when they obtained 40.1%.
So folks, even if the ALP primary vote was to drop to say 41%, the ALP would have an excellent chance of winning.
This illustrates the magnitude of the task ahead for the coalition.
Agree on the debate. I do think, now is the time to accentuate the ideological divide and take a no prisoner approach. Our policy is better so get it out there and let them follow.
Max, reporting of the Tiser poll for Boothby was garbled but the poll did find a swing of about 2 per cent TO the ALP. Nowhere near good enough, agreed.
Phil @ 218
Sorry, you are right, my recollections came from the call of Mark Kenny on the adelaidenow election site. No idea why I read that to start with, but I digress…
(http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22535741-5006363,00.html)
Matthew Sykes I agree, if the ALP can secure a preference deal with Family First it will make it extremely hard for the Libs to win this election. They’ll need to get close to 50% primary in every seat to win without the preferences of a significant minor. That means they’ll need an improvement of rougly 4-5% on primaries alone.
Too many threads! Too many comments!
The budget bounce (?) – or was it the “end of the honeymoon†bounce? – is good news for Labor. It makes Labor people remember they have to keep working to win. It also opens the way for the next set of polls to show an increase in Labor’s vote, which is what I think will happen. An increase for Labor in the second campaign week is a good pay-off for a decline in the first.
Marky marky says called the DLP “rotten†on an earlier thread. For the record, I dispute the adjective. I agree that the DLP senators should not have deferred supply in 1974 – and I told Frank McManus so at the time – but you ought not forget that the DLP was formed because the controllers of the ALP in 1954/55 expelled prominent anti-communist members from Victoria. If those power-brokers had not been so stupid, we would have had a lot more years of Labor governments.
The issue of Labor preferencing the DLP in Victoria has been adequately discussed on other threads, so I won’t go into all the reasoning again.
Glen praised the DLP but then exempted its social policies from the praise, which of course is what we expect from today’s Liberals. The DLP pioneered such things as a guaranteed annual income, capitalisation of child endowment (family tax benefit today), a tribunal to determine pensions rates and much more. Its social policies were 30 years ago in advance of even Labor’s today, which puts them even further in front of the Liberals’.
I also note that the YourRights@Work campaign is advocating a vote for any anti-WorknotcalledChoicesanymore party in the Senate. That means the DLP, Family First and the Greens, as well as the ALP.
Of courses, if the Greens were thinking strategically, they would preference the Liberals in the Senate in order to increase the likelihood of a double dissolution election next year, with its nice low quota that would assist them to gain the balance of power.
#220
Regardless of any preference deals Family First makes with the ALP, they are a bright ray of hope for the Coalition, on average Family First are going to preference 60-65% in favour of the Coalition on average. Considering that the Greens voters preference 80% to Labor and the rest 50-50%.
If Labor preference Family First ahead of the Greens in the senate, that would deliver Family First an another senate seat in Victoria. Nick Xenophon is going to win a Senate seat in South Australia, before his entry Family First could have hoped of winning a senate seat there.
Tristan do you have any evidence to back up your assertion on the pref flow of Family First on occasions where they have had Labor preferences on their HTV’s?
The one thing that I console myself with Tristan, is that I think we can predict with some certainty that the green vote will be at least a factor of 2 higher than family first.
Chris @ 221
You actually raise an interesting point that I hadn’t though about for a while: the possibility of a double dissolution (DD).
A quick looks at ozpolitics tells us that the last DD was in 1987 – but that was done two and a half years after the election prior. The last time an election was called a year after the one prior was, to my looking, 1969 (or 18 months after in 1975.)
I’ve head a few people cry “DD” in the past few months. I just don’t see it happening for two reasons. First, the Coalition will almost certainly lose their majority as of July, at which point Labor can still get legislation through, provided they are able to negotiate. How many parties they need to negotiate with depends on the numbers.
Second, two elections in the space of 18 months? It is based on the (somewhat large) assumption that the public don’t get tired of Rudd in that time. I would imagine that an election called so soon would result in a massive backlash. Today’s world is different from the past – the media saturates issues like never before, so much so that the public will be well and truly over it. I think we will all need a nice, long break from seeing the word ‘campaign’ pop up again once December hits.
Theoretically, the libs could become such a rump that the pissed-off poll going electorate gives Labor more power anyway. But it would still be unlikely.
Max, the 1969 election happened almost a full three years after the previous House of Representatives election. The election that came in between was a half-Senate election only. The last very early election was in 1984, and this was justifiable because the 1983 double dissolution meant a half-Senate election had to be held by some time before mid-1985. I would say the likelihood of a mid-term DD in the event that Labor wins is very high, given the likely state of the Senate.
You can bet the whole thing was entirely orchestrated between all the players including murdoch news. Call the election, tax cut, Media frenzy, and push poll 53/47 to make it all seem the momentum was with the LNP. Just a further corruption of democracy and the media that is becoming more common place. Even on ABC News Radio this morning I hearn one mention of the Labor Tax policy release and that was a 1 second mention in passinig in 30 minutes of radio. Seemed a P-plater survey story was more important coming in as the second story.
———————————————-
Labor by 20 without Media corrupution
Labor by 5 with Media corruption
Labor supporters don’t buy murdoch papers
Max (215) I’m not sure what evidence you have that “me too” is beginning to bite. Rudd has been me-tooing ever since the budget to avoid gettting wedged and the evidence is there for all to see that it has worked spectacularlly – Labor a mile in front. Just because the coalition cheer squad don’t like it doesn’t mean it isn’t working. More likely the other way around.
Max,
Prior to the candidacy of Nick Xenophon, I thought it extremely unlikely that the Coalition would lose its blocking ability in the Senate; i.e., drop below 38 seats. In that event, it would refuse to repeal WorknotcalledChoicesanymore because that legislation is so central to what the Liberal Party has become. Labor could not afford to give up as the repeal of WorknotcalledChoicesanymore is so central both to its campaign and its raison d’etre. That leads to a double dissolution. There would be no reason to delay as Labor in federal government will be as popular as Labor in government in Victoria was after the 1999 state election and would romp home in any subsequent election.
However, the candidacy of Nick Xenophon makes it more likely, though not certain, that the Coalition will drop to 37 seats, leaving 39 pro-worker senators (ALP, Family First, Nick Xenophon and the Greens) and the end of the foul nineteenth century IR legislation we have endured.
Of course, Labor would still be constrained as a government by the need to reach compromises with those to the left of it and to the right of it at the same time. If it succeeded in repealing WorknotcalledChoicesanymore, a double dissolution would be less likely but not impossible. I say “less likely†because a double dissolution election would raise the prospect of Labor being totally dependent on the Greens for its legislation to pass, a situation it strove to avoid in the Victorian election. I say “not impossible†because it would be difficult to govern when almost nothing can be passed unless the Greens and FF and Senator Xenophon all agree to it and there is no certainty of dependence on the Greens in a double dissolution election. It is possible that a double dissolution election would result in a Senate of ALP 38, Greens 6, FF 1, Nick Xenophon 1, Coalition 30, in which case Labor would have a choice of which party it would need to compromise with to get legislation through.
Mark at 2:10 pm
Yeah right Mark, let’s break down the “restrictive” practices of all professionals: let butchers do surgery, handymen build bridges, jack hammer operators-dentistry etc etc
Why do you think so many pollies who were lawyers, abandoned law?
Well one reason, (applicable to Howard at least, low on the totem pole of surburban solicitors in his time) is because it was so much easier to bullshit people (including colleagues) than judges, for higher monetary gain and prestige. Howard wanted to be PM as a teenage misfit nerd who craved power so he could get even with the people he hated (arguable inferiority complex there). Law was simply a means to, shall I say, “Howard’s end.”
In my experience of the late 60s the first step for a young liberal (much less opportunity for working class Laborites until Whitlam came along) hell bent on a political career was to get a law degree. Not for the purpose of practising law, simply the first step on the ladder. $Sweety and some others are exceptions of course. The Ming was a barrister, so was Doc Evatt.
The point is, I’m not surprised so many pollies from both sides were originally lawyers. The “golden voice” in a law court is heard by so few. In politics, with Costello as an example, one can play the part of a hectoring bullying legal eagle, like Tom Cruise in a bulls**t Hollywood movie.
The “golden voice” transforms so readily from law to politics. In Howard’s case I would suggest he more represented “pox populi” than “vox populi.”
I agree with the general sentiment that Labor has been off to a slow and sluggish start to the formal campaign, but I don’t think that the “me-too” stuff is quite as damaging as some would believe.
Of course, most of it is an exaggeration by both the media and the government, but the flip-side of all the “me-too” talk is that Rudd is viewed as relatively risk-free. In other words, the public will develop an impression that a Rudd government won’t be doing anything particularly drastic, especially and crucially in the economic sphere, other than repair the damage done by the government’s complacency or incompetence in key areas, such as industrial relations, climate change, and Iraq. I suspect that this is why Labor haven’t been too concerned about trying to counter the “me-too” allegations.
Some will argue, as Costello has, that Rudd is therefore out of ideas. But I just don’t think many people will really believe this. It runs completely counter to Rudd’s personality – he seems intelligent, thoughtful, and frankly, appears like a person who would have plenty of great ideas for the country. I think that there are a lot of expectations on Rudd being a much better PM than he would otherwise portray himself on this side of the election, simply because he has to play Howard’s game for now in order to avoid the wedges and traps.
But in saying all this, Rudd needs to give additional evidence of the “vision” thing. Perhaps this will start with tomorrow’s debate, but certainly during next week, he needs to give some inspiring, emotion-laden speeches about the future of this country and the priorities of a Labor government. He has to start capturing the imagination of the public.
And this week is the week that Rudd needs to release a big policy, preferably in education or health, but he will have to get in early because I suspect that Howard is planning on releasing a big policy every week of this campaign.
It is obvious that Labor is holding back now so that they can bring out all their major artillery closer to the actual election date, but the drip feed of policy that Rudd was releasing earlier in the year worked brilliantly at maintaining momentum for Labor. I think they need to be VERY careful about holding back too much right now because the point will quickly come when the public get sick of the campaign and start to tune out. I would do some big stuff now, lots of ads, then slow it down a bit before hitting it hard again in the final week.
At any rate, be very CAREFUL about what you read in the MSM. There is a lot of bulls**t flying around about Howard’s comeback. The MSM want a competition because it is better for sales, but at the same time, I think they are having their last big push to try to defeat Labor. If it fails, then all those little worms will have to turn. The MSM won’t want to be seen backing a loser in the final stretch to the finish line.
“Well one reason, (applicable to Howard at least, low on the totem pole of surburban solicitors in his time) is because it was so much easier to bullshit people (including colleagues) than judges, for higher monetary gain and prestige. Howard wanted to be PM as a teenage misfit nerd who craved power so he could get even with the people he hated (arguable inferiority complex there). Law was simply a means to, shall I say, “Howard’s end.â€
One reasons Howard hates Costello – he is afraid he would do better and be more popular.
I agree with William. the likelihood of a double dissolution is high. I’m sure Labor will grab at it if it gets the chance and get all of its legislation through in a joint sitting – just as Gough Whitlam did. .
“Labor supporters don’t buy murdoch papers”
I second that. I stopped a while ago. I suggest others do the same because if you really want this government gone, then DON’T give money to the people who are trying to protect the government, and simultaneously thwart the democratic process.
This me-to-ism is a bit of BS. Rudd only agreed with Howard on issues we know Howard would wedge him on – not much you can do about that. Much easier and safer to smother the issue.
However lest we forget at the begining of the year Rudd introduced
Iraq;
Health
Education
Broad Band
Climate Change
WorkChoices repeal
as major platform initiatives for Labor. AND at that time Howard had absolutely nothing on those things – except an embarassing record. At the time we were saying Rudd was the best Govt we had because Howard he made Howard pick up on all those issues in a serious way.
Yes, Kina. The “me-too” is really an exaggeration based on a few instances, but the media have gone for it unquestioningly as if it were a general fact about Labor’s policies, which is typical of them.
By the way, your list should also include housing affordability!
I suspect the ‘me-tooing’ is because people generally agree with the Government on a lot of areas but want a change. That’s probably what the ALP’s focus groups are showing.
Another thing not to forget is that at every election people whinge about the parties being too similar. “Me-too” is not all too different than usual.
I agree, though, that the ALP needs to grab the agenda and suggest populist moves that the Government will not support.
Quick poll for seppies
If a liberal was on fire, on the other side of the street
Would you:
1. Blame someone else and run
2. Call for an inquiry
3. Call the Telegraph and say it was a beat up
4. Proceed to the nearest pub for micturation.
Woah. Too many responses.
William @ 226
Thanks for clarifying that – that will teach me a lesson to research properly before commenting on eras that happened before my time! I still think my ponderings of over-saturation are relevent… but then again, it is really difficult to predict results until we see the Senate makeup. I shall ponder on.
Darn @ 228
First: Can’t tell if you are inferring this or not, but I am NOT part of the Liberal cheering squad.
Second: No, I don’t have hard core evidence to back up my statement. It is merely my hunch and from discussions I’ve had with various people. I expanded on it in an earlier thread, but in these days of 500+ posts and 2-3 threads per day… it would be impossible to find!
Chris @ 229
An interesting set of figures – FF as one seat? I assume that you are predicting that Mr Fielding would get up – one suspects with a slightly higher primary vote – and that other candidates wouldn’t? It’s quite astonishing how quickly the party has gained credibility… there is hope for minor parties yet.
The idea that the Senate is so out of whack with the House seems more ridiculous by the day. I can see the advantages, but the fact remains if the libs just pull over the line this election, they will have six months to enjoy their majority to push through whatever legislation they fancy (assuming outgoing rogue Senators don’t start to misbehave.) If Labor win, they will be able to do pretty much nothing for six months – except that which has bipartisan support. The case for fixed terms is growing on me. But I’m wondering off topic again now, so I’ll digress.
238 Derek Corbett – I certainly wouldn’t pee on him.
Max, Steve Fielding is not up for election this time.
LTEP @ 241
I know – we were discussing the outcomes of a double disolution
(from 229)
…we went a bit off topic : )
“If a liberal was on fire, on the other side of the street”
I would run over and try by any means possible to extinguish the fire, I would try to help, try to comfort him/her and hope that my basic first aid treatment would help before the ambulance arrives.
One fear I DO have is that this election will be very divisive. Howard has polarised the nation.
No matter who you vote for you are still worthy of compassion and respect.
Max,
My DD election figures were not a prediction, but an example, though a possible one.
{One fear I DO have is that this election will be very divisive. Howard has polarised the nation. }
Divisive is not a strong enough word.
My youngest daughter is engaged to a son of the local Liberal candidate.
I have voted Labor all my adult life, have had my kids helping out at polling booths for years and this afternoon, find my two youngest out with Liberal shirts and caps, letter-boxing Liberal propaganda.
Divisive? Some people just wouldn’t understand the meaning of the word.
Agree,245.
How many friendships and relationships have been strained by the Iraq war alone? Where we once happily discussed politics,we now tiptoe trying to keep the peace. For those like me, the small ‘l’s , speaking out on the asylum issue,etc., it has been a wake-up call and you sure find out who your friends are!
Ruawake.
I agree. I am suitably chastised.
247,
Agree totally with the polarity of the asylum issue and the Pacific solution post Tampa falls into that same category. I have Labor voting relatives who fell into the government column on that particular issue back in 2001. Because of that, I will no longer speak politics with any relatives outside of my immediate family (i.e spouse and children) in spite of the fact that I know that they (other relatives) are voting same as will I.
248, sorry Derek, was referring to Megan @ 246 …..
It seems News Ltd have corrected the earlier error about the Ex PM’s at Beazley Snr’s Funeral.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22618439-2761,00.html
Derek,
I did not mean to chastise, in fact you raised a serious issue. What happened to “relaxed and comfortable” ?
What have we become, when people who have different politics are seen as people to piss on?
When politics is reduced to Hair Styles, Beards and Smirks?
This is a result of Howard’s divide and spin, It is the reason we need a different path.
Ruawake. Thanks. That was my point. Ineptly expressed, however …
(I’m a first-aider, by the way).
Do you think Howard can last the distance?
I think Labor’s primary is rock solid at about 45% maybe a point or two higher.
Add the greens 6-7% and FF 2% then it has to be at least 53% minimum TPP.
The only preferences Howard is going to get is from the Nats in 3 cornered contests.
The only seats the Coalition will win are ones that they poll >50% primary (maybe one or two at 48-49) they are miles off this.
They cannot win.
That will do me. Ta. May I sleep tonight without awful thoughts and banshees knocking at the windows?
Scorpio
Just read your post and the link to Annabel.
“There is a secret appeal to red-blooded dads; after the kids are in bed, Jack and Briony’s educational online superhighway becomes a high-speed porn pipe, subsidised to the tune of 50 per cent by the taxpayer. ”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/all-in-the-family-superhighway-for-kids-porn-pipe-for-dad/2007/10/19/1192301044972.html
This is the sort of thinking that Ruddock and Howard esposed, no broadband because it will mean more porn downloaded.
But if Annabel has a problem with her husbands or fathers hobby the kids should not be penalised, she should talk it thru with them, this attitude is getting very close to the Exclusive Brethren way of life who apparently have a ban on all technology.
Would Annabel propose banning libaries or magazines, what about newspapers, Daily Tele had a nice picture of Umma that would have got her dad’s/ hubbies pulse racing.
Paul Murray in The West hinted the similar thing in his article on the tax refunds for puters, and also mentioning whether the kids will actually use the things.
Bunch of luddites.
220
Lose the election please Says:
October 20th, 2007 at 5:05 pm
Matthew Sykes I agree, if the ALP can secure a preference deal with Family First it will make it extremely hard for the Libs to win this election.
That statement suggests to me that LTEP is actually batting for the conservatives and all the while pretending to be anti Coalition.
Having said that, I read in the Courier Mail BB claiming he is close to finalising a preference deal with Labor in all States except TAS who will be running an open ticket.
The AMWU and other union heavies up here in the Peoples Republic of Queensland are demanding no preference deal with FF and good old Mr. Dick is keeping his cards close to his chest so I suppose BB is grandstanding again.
It would actually work for Labor to run with FF up here in the Peoples Republic of QLD since (a) they are expected to have more clout in marginal PROQ seats than the Green machine: the same might be said of other States or at least marginals in those seats and (b) 75-80 percent of Green preferences traditionally float to Labor anyway.
LTEPs suggestion that it would do Labor a favour to by doing a deal with FF on a national scale is not a good idea in seats like Wentworth (NSW), for example, where the Green vote will have much more influence than the FF vote. FF have been known to do State wide deals with both major contenders and also claim to have a good look at individual candidates at times too.
I can see the sense of an ALP-FF preference deal in the Peoples Republic of Queensland, but in other places like Taswegia with the Greens already unhappy with Labor, doing an ALP-FF preference deal there would tick some off further, enough to keep Bass away from Labor, no, but enough to scare the beejees out of the Labor candidate.
All of this won’t matter much , who preferences who, people say, but I do remember at least 2 SA seats and 1 QLD seat that would could well have gone to Labor with FF preference direction support – Could be the difference between governing on your own numbers or having to play house with Katter, Xenephon et al.; particularly if Westpoll’s notion that Hasluck and Stirling are out of the frame and Cowan actually be lost.
Arbie Jay and Frank Calabrese;
Did you happen to read the full article at all?
If that was her attempt at humour on a crucial issue in probably the most crucial and hard fought election campaigns in a generation, then she is off with the fairies and probably sampling some of the substances that Cousins has got in the habit of using.
Not a good look for a supposedly creditable journalist employed by a supposedly creditable newspaper.
At this time in the electoral cycle, I think the public deserve a bit better than dribble like this.
PS: Unless Howard can keep the 2 percent bump he got on the tax package in his pocket AND pull back another 2-3 percent before election day, my prediction for what it is worth is a 27 seat net gain for Labor at this election, effectively reversing the 2004 result, give or take a seat or 2.
OMG – The Poisoned Dwarf has done a Pr- Rudd article
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22620554-5005374,00.html
Frank Calabrese Says:
October 20th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
It seems News Ltd have corrected the earlier error about the Ex PM’s at Beazley Snr’s Funeral.}
Yeah, but not on the main News Ltd site.
{Four former prime ministers – Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke, Paul Keating and Bill Hayden – were among those paying their respects. }
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22619165-29277,00.html
Are they getting kids on “work experience” to write and edit this stuff?
For the last time Bluebottle, I am not a ‘conservative stooge’, I am not a ‘concern troll’ or any other stupid label people wish to throw at me.
What I’m trying to do is look at things objectively and think about what strategies would end up with Labor in government. Personally, I find FF a silly party. I mean Steve Fielding has made himself whip of a party of one. Any legislation he introduces is merely for the press it can generate.
I also don’t imagine them getting a huge primary vote at the election. I’d say they’ll manage, at most, 5%. Of course the Labor Party would be looking at securing a deal with them if they thought it would help them. In key seats having preferences directed to you by both the Greens and Family First would make things tough for the Liberal Party.
I don’t believe the ALP will win Wentworth, and I don’t think I’m crazy for thinking that. From what I’ve seen around the place neither Labor insiders nor Liberal insiders think the seat is likely to fall at this election.
Unless you can point to a more specific reason why anything I’ve stated makes me a Liberal Party stooge I’d appreciate it if you could stop labelling me that.
I don’t understand the allegation that LTEP is a “concern troll”, but I am sick of hearing it. No more please.
The weekend GG had some interesting responses to Labor’s tax policy.
I don’t mean Dennis Shenanigan’s usual crap – his pieces should come with a warning box about truth in advertising. How can he call the policy “me-too” and “never-never” at the same time? What a buffoon.
The other lightweight coverage included similar “me-too” and “copycat” BS but the heavy hitters took the opposite line:
Paul Kelly (”a Labor reply that is safe, simple and smart”) was pretty balanced AND he gave credit to Swan: “Swan was correct yesterday in saying that he had long advocated these two initiatives [raising LITO & 15% margin] that guided the Howard-Costello approach”.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22616215-12250,00.html
And the leader (no I don’t mean Rupert): “Mr Rudd should not be ashamed of adopting the Government’s plan for tax offsets for low-income earners because it is an issue on which the Opposition – notably shadow treasurer Wayne Swan, finance spokesman Lindsay Tanner and small business spokesman Craig Emerson – have spoken out for some time”. In other comments pretty clearly gave them much credit for the “other” tax policy.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22615657-16741,00.html
George Megagenius climbs down a bit from recent critcism of Rudd winging it on tax – doesn’t matter anyway George, as Swan, Tanner, and Emerson are the economics engine here. Calls it “bipartisan” and points out that this is just what the rodent did in ‘96.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22616993-5013946,00.html
The other GG columnists don’t really count… and I only really get it for the cryptics and sudoku anyways
Comments on the Rudd Tax Plan from THe West’s “Blog”
http://blogs.thewest.com.au/news/election-blog-rudds-tax-return/#comments
Frank @ 256 you gotta love nick’s comments doncha?
“We would be better off under Rudd’s tax package but he still won’t get my vote … as I have two young kids, I certainly do not need another Labour Party education revolution”
D’uh? What are they putting in the water over there?
oops Frank meant your 265 not your 256
I reckon Nick is a 6PR listener by those comments – and most likely an Eagles Fan who supports Ben Cousins
Unfortunately, this is the quality journalism we get here thanks to The West, Ch 7 (both owned by Stokes) and Radio 6PR.
wysiwyg,
If you read http://www.platowa.com, you will see what a mess WA education is in. Kevin Rudd’s education revolution is much more sensible, and it is a pity that the madness of WA education is working against him.
I do believe Labor’s primary is in excess of 45 and probably 47. If it leaks it may leak to the Greens more than the LNP.
Can’t imagine going through all this at every poll.
—————————————-
Labor 20+ without media interference
Labor 5 with media interference
Full credit to LTEP for actually looking at things objectively, rather then blindly following the Labor lead, and and denouncing anything the libs do as ‘desperate’ and any positive report of them ‘not worth reading.’
Kevin Rudd is doing a Makybe Diva over the 3200 metres of the Melbourne Cup. Jumped well, settled mid-field without raising a sweat. Cantering and saving himself for the run home. Johnny and Cossie have started like a frenzied quarter horse. Sprinting ahead…. the good news is there are several laps to go and Rudd will loom up in the next fw weeks and win running away.
The betting odds on Hinkler started as too favourable to Labor and seemed to ignore the redistribution. Neville has a personal vote but maybe Labor should have run their 1998-2004 candidate who was very unlucky in 1998 and 2001.
We need a new non-debate general thread
I’m going to risk incurring Adam’s derision by mentioning Glen Milne’s article in the GG. However my interest is not in the transparent bias, but in the howler of an error made.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22624035-33435,00.html
Now if O’Connor wins Corio (which Milne essentially admits is near impossible despite premising most of the column on that scenario) then the ALP will certainly need to pick up an additional seat to govern in their own right.
However there will be no “striking off” because Corio is not one of the 16 seats that the ALP need to pick up. It is already an ALP seat.