• Galaxy has released further findings from yesterday’s poll, which can be viewed through this nifty graphic.
• Writing in The Age, Rod Cameron notes a particular concentration of the part-time working mothers targeted by the Coalition’s tax policy in the important Victorian seats of Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, McEwen and McMillan. Cameron also includes Solomon on his list of marginal Coalition seats which Labor can’t take for granted, which I had only previously heard suggested by Matthew Franklin and Brad Norington of The Australian.
• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that both parties’ polling has Nationals incumbent Paul Neville holding a 55-45 lead over Labor candidate Garry Parr in the Bundaberg-based seat of Hinkler. Roberts’ article paints an unflattering picture of Parr’s campaign efforts which recalls the media-shy performance of Ed Husic, Labor’s disastrously unsuccessful candidate for Greenway at the 2004 election. Anecdotal evidence is also presented of strong local feeling over the council amalgamations issue.
• Shortly after dumped Labor member Gavan O’Connor announced he would attempt to hold his seat of Corio as an independent, Labor has promised to add $45 million to its existing funding plans for the Geelong Ring Road.
• Joe Hildebrand of the Daily Telegraph notes that the need to respond to the Coalition tax package caused Kevin Rudd to scrap “early rough plans” for “a sweep across the country from Brisbane to Sydney to Adelaide and Perth”. The only Liberal marginal seat he has found time to visit so far has been the Adelaide electorate of Kingston, reckoned by most to be a certain Labor gain.
• The Sky News Election 07: Agenda program last night broadcast a debate between Joe Hockey and Mike Bailey, the Liberal and Labor candidates for North Sydney, which you can hear as a podcast.
• George Megalogenis of The Australian notes that the behaviour of the major parties indicates they believe “working women are fibbing when they tell opinion pollsters they prefer increased public spending over another round of tax cuts” (can’t find the article online but I’m sure it’s there somewhere).
• After some invaluable advice from readers last month on reducing bandwidth costs, this vehicle is running a good deal more efficiently than it used to. Nonetheless, the announcement of the election has brought a further surge in traffic, so I am again having to shell out extra for the privilege of staying online until the end of the month. Please click on the PayPal button on the sidebar if you would like to make a contribution (I should acknowledge that whenever I make this plea, the resulting influx is enough to cover my costs with a fair bit to spare). To clear up a common point of confusion: you do not need a PayPal account to donate, you simply have to click “continue” where it says “Don’t have a PayPal account?” at the bottom left.
274 Comments
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So GB, anything under Labor primary of 45. Well I think that is about 2 points away.
Strongly disagree. The workchoices ads hit the spot because they are close to home. “Unions running the government” is a distant threat, but losing penalty rates hits you directly. The union ad campaign is very well done and there is very little the government can do to counter it.
The problem with the anti union ads ESJ is that Workchoices stinks to high heaven out there. The unions don’t. The unions will tap into a very strong community perception, the government hasn’t.
Who said you have to run the same set of ads for 5 weeks? The unions have many different angles they can attack workchoices from… there is no danger of them becoming stale. I’m sure they’ve got a whole bagful of ideas to pick from and won’t just keep plugging the same old ads.
If this is but just a sample of the standard of “journalism” that we can expect from now until the election, then god help us all!
{All in the family: superhighway for kids, porn pipe for dad }
{Granny, quite inexplicably, comes out of it with a new hip.
And just like a Hi-5 DVD, there is a secret appeal to red-blooded dads; after the kids are in bed, Jack and Briony’s educational online superhighway becomes a high-speed porn pipe, subsidised to the tune of 50 per cent by the taxpayer. Hooray!}
{”This is the toolbox of the 21st century!” cried Kevin with passion, as he scooped up a laptop that looked – frankly – more like an artificial reef from the 20th.
But he was so excited as he waved it, and did his little laptop dance (where did he learn that?), that you could easily forgive him.}
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/all-in-the-family-superhighway-for-kids-porn-pipe-for-dad/2007/10/19/1192301044972.html
Annebel Crabb, it’s time for a change of occupation for you me thinks.
Ah Edward @ 140,
I see you and Liberal screaming harpies must be losing the debate as you have returned back to what you do best. Providing gratuitous smears and negative personal reflections.
I would stack Adam’s and Rod Cameron’s credibility against yours any day of the week.
Meantime, ignoring the useless troll action-reaction story episode number whatever, it was interesting that Abbott noted that the contender has won the ‘debate’, citing Beasley, Latham et al, suggesting it somehow favours the contender.
It will be interesting to see how many people are wearing “Bring Back the Worm” T shirts after Sunday Night.
I am not going to watch it because it will only give me heartburn hating everything JWH says and hoping/praying that Rudd dosent lick the bottom left corner of his lip too often or say “I beleive” too much.
A first year university lecturer once said to me after marking my first essay.., I don’t give a damn what you beleive in… Delete the words I beleive from the start of each paragraph and back up what you say with simple, verifiable facts… convince me with raw facts that support your argument and don’t invite trouble by making assumptions about the views of others or interpreting their discourse. Tell me what you know to be right and nothing else.
Every time Rudd says “I beleive… I want to turn him into Hawke who could make something he knew what total bullshit seem like gospel truth which no one dare question….passion, commitment, conviction – thats the perception Rudd needs to present- Beleifs are for religous nuts standing at pulpits.
What do others think ? Will Rudd be convincing as a would be PM tomorrow night ? I think he can be if he actually wants to be PM more than anything else he has ever done in his life: otherwise, he will be probably win the debate but come off as Howard Lite again: ewww.
As long as the ads have a very simple message they should be effective. The fact is the government introduced something they knew would make workers worse off, were warned about it repeatedly and still went ahead. A senior Minister in the government has claimed he doesn’t think it went far enough. Can we trust a government that has knowingly discounted the interests of its people again?
To me, this is a very persuasive argument and should hit home when it counts.
I have to laugh all year we have been saying 60-40 was never going to happen with such a strong economy and a goodish Govt.
come election time the result would be between 53-56 with the ALP winning somewhere around 80-100 seats, now along comes the campaign and the polls show a slight movement back toward the middle of this band and all of a sudden the Liberals thing they are home and the ALP types are panicking.
please we have seen several seat based polls where the swings are smaller in the marginals and larger in the safe seats again nothing as changed all year.
The first week was good for the Liberals, while the ALP took until Friday to fire up, but it is only week 1 with some 35 days left so in a way Rod Cameron is right.
I saw a letter from the ALP candidate for Deakin, and I’m sorry but the letter was poorly written, it was all about the Howard Govt, nothing about what he would do for Deakin or how a Rudd Govt would improve the lives of the people of Deakin.
It’s first paragraph was negative and the tone never improved, if things don’t improve then I suspect Deakin will be held by the Liberals.
Ashley (147)
Don’t forget that the unions are planning to spend a fortune on this campaign. It’s highly unlikely that they’ll leave it to the last minute.
I’m just waiting to see which ads they run and if there are any new ones.
Did anyone else notice that Rudd’s laptop yesterday wasn’t exactly the most modern looking thing you’ve ever seen? Surely he could have pulled out an apple notebook instead, they are much sexier (no, I don’t own one, I’ve got a piece of sh*t dell).
No ESJ, Labor could win with 42% which is just not going to happen anyway given the issues, policies and what has occurred all year in the polling. I see Labor’s rock primary vote being in the order of 45 – 47 percent. The Libs may manage 42 – 43 percent. An easy win for Labor. Tell me ESJ what is going to turn voters away from Labor in the large numbers that is needed that hasn’t done so already? Tax hasn’t done it. Negative campaigns against Rudd haven’t done it. Calling the election hasn’t done it. I can’t see the nuclear issue being a positve for the Libs. Nor IR or Iraq and not health and education (Labor’s strong areas). Any suggestions?
Just on the lawyer thing. My experience with lawyers, particularly in corporate/litigation is that they exist to make more work for themselves. And if you want to talk about “closed shops”, restrictive work practises etc. just pop into your local court house.
GG 156
The person who most consistently follows the party line on this blog is of course Adam.
I’d go easy on some of the tory posters here….imagine how you’d feel if you were in their shoes. It might explain why their posts are heavy on vitriol and light on analysis. Best leave them to themselves.
Yeah Ashley, that was funny.
Good to hear.
I’m a great believer in the power of advertising, and the union ads are the most powerful ones out there: they reinforce a strong perception which is already in the community, and they hit close to home.
If the unions do this ad campaign right, and splash a lot of money on it, the government will get smashed.
BMWofVictoria, I agree the ALP campaign material is awful. Seriously, whoever’s running the campaign should be sacked even if the ALP win. Poor slogan (’New Leadership’ and ‘I have a plan for the future’ suck even more than ‘Go for Growth’ which, in my opinion, is terrible). Terrible letters. Next to no sign that the candidates care about local issues. I can’t really think of one thing the campaign team has gotten right so far, and like it or not the first week of the campaign is important for setting the tone.
I don’t think it matters if you look at Liberals or ALP people for they are the worst of losers
Who reads the mail outs? I throw them out without reading a word no matter who it is.
Minchin’s moment
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiUtvnwjkTw
Oh, and more on topic…
The Westpoll certainly backs up what I’ve felt for a long time. The ALP will win no seats in WA and will lose Cowan but not Swan. If we need to wait til WA to get a result I’d call it for the Libs.
In response to Sean. Thanks.
In response to Edward St John. See previous posts about the merits of going negative second in a campaign.
I have no doubt that Rudd and Labor are prepared to go on the attack. They are simply waiting for the appropriate “season” as KRudd puts it. That time between when people are really starting to get sick of the Government’s negativity but well before the election. Prediction some time toward end of next week after Howard launches another couple of blatantly offensive ads.
The attack ads will be focussed on the Howard Government’s record on WorkChoices. And they will be balanced out by plenty of Kevin ad’s promoting his positive policy agenda.
I don’t like attack ads but unfortunately they work and the Libs have no inhibitions about using them.
And the negative approach keeps coming.
The ad campaign will go the way it always does: that is there will be a blitz in the last 2 weeks. You can’t view the campaign in terms of rushing out and kicking goals from time on. THe press play into this by ’scoring’ each day, which is just ludicrous. You’ve got to pace yourself, and that includes firing your ads at the right time.
By the way, the telegraph in their ’scoring’ of yesterday said that Howard got off to a flyer by saying to the chaser guys “I’d find you funnier if you picked on people who were alive”. As they were picking on him, he seemed to be suggesting that he was dead! Is it possible that Howard had passed away and nobody noticed?
Gary in 1998 Bruce Billson on Election eve sent out a letter and a booklet called Dunkley Destiny some polling day many voters commented on it while the ALP had spent the campaign taking crap without explaining what they actually would do for the country while there candidate spent the campaign in the local State MPs office smoking.
I’m sorry but apart from the 1999 Victorian State Election the ALP have shown a real inability to campaign.
Wow, the coalition just wont let up. Labor made up of 70% unions! You’d think we were still in the bloody seventies! LOL.
You conservatives must be so PROUD, needing to rely on all that mud throwing at unions from the past.
Suppose you have got NOTHING else to go on.
No vision, no innovation, no ideas, no plans for the future. It really is time to get rid of that opprtunistic incompetent warmongering sixties PM of yours.
Face it, either way, Howard is at the end of his career and the people prefer Rudd to Smirk.
Where is this alleged new Westpoll? This is the most recent Westpoll, according to the News website
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22540489-5012863,00.html
If there was a bad WA poll for Labor you can sure it would be here:
http://www.news.com.au/index/0,23601,1245,00.html
Which leads me to ask: LTEP, just whose side are you on here? For a supposed Labor supporter, you’re doing a very good job of spreading Liberal lies and disinformation. I suggest you come clean about your loyalties
I think its good for Labor to send out the positive ads first while the govt is running their mudslinging. WHen Labor role out their mud, it might hopefully then look like a justifiable retort….under provocation.
Did anyone read the piece in the Australian that tried to argue that Howard-style assimilationism is not racism – it frankly made me sick to my stoumach.
Adam, he’s a rusted on conservative. Honestly I picked it the first of his comments that I read.
new thread on Westpoll up
we all know who is who here, pretty hard to hide what you are about, it is not a kindergarten.
If I was the ALP I would respond to the 70% union claim with the following.
‘For 100 years the ALP has proudly been the party of all working Australians regardless if they wear overhauls, a shirt or a Nurses uniform
(insert picture of a nurse, Tradies, Businessman and a Farmer)
while the Liberal Party claims to stand for what
Home buying families yet many 30 somethings are working full time without the ability to own their own home
Small Business yep burdoned with GST and Workchoices and lost of profits for people are needing to cover the increased cost of living caused by Howard.
Vote ALP for real leadership.
I actually think “New Leadership” is a very good slogan, but must agree the Labor campaign team have to date very ordinary… Hopefully things will improve.. but campaigning and Federal elections has not been a strong point federally for Labor in the 21st century. The union scare has hit town and some are swallowing it.. “i talk to alot of migrants and many are saying oh i’m unsure about Labor and what they may do in government” Labor like 2004 needs to knock this on its head, and at present they look like wet lettuce leafs…
Adam, It’s up here. New thread
Galaxy poll(?)
For Labor to come out of this with 53/47, after seeing the loaded questions (it seems they were asked in this order) is really good news for Rudd.
Given it included the Coalition, alone, tax policy and negativity for Rudd, this poll, in the real polling world, looks more 55 or 56 to Labor.
It’s a fantastic result for Labor.
Anyone got a link to the supposed “push polling” Galaxy questions?
Isn’t it strange how we’re getting seat polling seemingly favouring the coalition at this point in time? Strange that.
Ashley
http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2007/10/071019poll/poll2.swf
I think that you are being a bit tough on Ed Husic. He was not the best sort of candidate that’s for sure but the ALP were outspent at least 3:1 in Greenway. Scott Morrison made sure that Mrs Markus’s campaign was flawless and she did all the right things herself in the run up to the election.
The Libs put in a huge effort with workers from the Naw Shore manning booths that had never seen a Lib on before.
The demographics of Greenway had changed substantially especially north of the railway plus there was the loss of the incumbency factor in that Mossfield, altho’ errr… low profile in Canberra was very poplular personally in and around Blacktown.
Must agree with you on that but West Australian has never been strong for Labor, as this poll shows results in June than October with Labor trailing at both points… The polls that do worry me are newspoll.. listening to Lebovic on the 7.30 report the other night he made some interesting comments regarding being in front and behind and they were contrary to the other pollster present.. seemed to suggest that the coalition would close the gap and hang on.. Just makes me wonder what the Murdoch executives have said to the pollsters.. what kind of relationship is it?
I for one don’t trust those Murdoch dailys’ they make up stuff and continually give the government very good coverage…
Thanks Scorpio. That is indeed push polling.
Australians like to see a bit of the ratbag in their sportspeople and in their politicians. Steve Waugh can be an emissary and diplomat as Captain, but can sledge with the best of them. Likewise I think Rudd could bung on the rat act a bit more than he is. He is capable of it, at least in his writing as this shows
http://www.australianpolitics.com/words/2004/archives/00000168.shtml
but seems to be a little too “collegiate” and reserved (someone above called it wooden… good word), as if he’s back in the Public Service or the diplomatic corps and everybody’s so pally and friendly and polite.
By contrast, Howard plays the conservative, measured Father Of The Nation, but during campaigns takes off like a ravenous dog after a particularly juicy bone.
Howard seems to want to win no matter what, with every fibre of his being. While Rudd obviously does want to win, it seems that’s only if it’s the “rules”. What Rudd doesn’t realise is that this is the Grand Final. He’s not at footy practice anymore, practising his goal kicks from the sideline, swearing under his breath when he misses one but nothing more consequential than that. Out in the middle right now, in the Grand Final, every goal he misses is a missed opportunity to put as many points on the board as possible. He can’t ask for another kick like he can at practice. This is the real deal and mistakes aren’t allowed, especially by the other side. Miss a kick, drop a pass, fail to tackle and you’ve missed vital points, or allowed the other side to score them against you.
The umpire is of course the MSM and they’re on Howard’s side. Rudd won’t get any joy from them unless he shows he’s prepared to mix it up and match Howard’s tactics and is prepared to take every opportunity to help his own cause. Because if he won’t help himself, why should the pundits? And why should the people vote for someone who doesn’t have the killer instinct?
Whoever the geniuses are at Labor HQ that have told Rudd he can slack off and coast in by mentioning WorkChoices, or “Education Revolution” (how that slogan grates on my nerves!) they should be taken out and shot, being immediately replaced by winners, sledgers, cheats and n’er-do-wells… anything but the bunch of pin-stripe suited snake oil salesmen they’ve got running their campaign at the moment.
Rudd must not only want to win, he must look like he wants to win, or else doubts will creep in abotu just what he will do when it comes time for him to play for Australia for real.
What kind of candidate turns down a radio interview?
A five minute interview in a key seat such as Hinkler..
Must say Labor Headquarters knows alot about selecting candidates in Queensland…Well at least he isn’t a lawyer i suppose… Just hope Mike Kaiser was not in on this…
anyways back in reality
1.worstchoices
2.EB
3.health
and people are going to be swayed by “filthy lucre”
not on your nellie
ps gary bruce -methinks that the rats are scuttling together,crowing at the dawn of a new age-an imperium even-while slowly outside in the real world the Libs continue their slow roast over the coals of building discontent
Bushfire mentioned on an earlier thread how the time comes to pay the piper (Gvt ads etc).From the MSM point of view who gives a flying what they say-the MSM is merely repaying its debt to the Gvt.
in essence – Labor on track to obliterate the far right Lib Gvt
I think after reading those questions Galaxy has indeed been into the “push polling†business. Anyone surprised given the way Briggs spruiks for the coalition?
NewScientist magazine may be good news for Labor. It has an article about why people vote the way they do after having studied 30 years of elections results around the world. The answer people arrive at their choice via social networking. So if 3 or so years of gradual social networking opinions have arrived at a vote for Labor it has been a personally arrived at choice – it is not likely to be swayed too much by campaigning – unless you get a 9/11.
“The natural pattern behind our votes”
NewScientist 13/10/07
Quotes:
Voting follows the same pattern regardless of country or economics, and it could all be based on networking.
Analysis of election results over 30 years in different countries shows that, for each political party, voting follows the same patter, regardless of nationality, culture, history or economics.
Using a simple computer model, they have shown that the person-to-person process is enough to generate the universal pattern observed in the data.
These influences perculate through the social network until everyone has made a decision. The physicists results fit the real data almost exactly.
I wonder whether either party is going to announce something big tomorrow. I would bet that the Coalition is going to launch something.
Thanks for the great site; it’s my homepage for the election campaign. Just put in $10 (on my wife, Cindy’s, paypal… so u don’t think I’m fibbing…lol).
That West Oz marginal poll can’t be right… surely
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