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	<title>Comments on: D-day minus 35</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/</link>
	<description>Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth</description>
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		<title>By: Martin B</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-61642</link>
		<dc:creator>Martin B</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Oct 2007 02:02:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-61642</guid>
		<description>We need a new non-debate general thread :-)

I&#039;m going to risk incurring Adam&#039;s derision by mentioning Glen Milne&#039;s article in the GG. However my interest is not in the transparent bias, but in the howler of an error made.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22624035-33435,00.html

&lt;blockquote&gt;If the Liberals do preference O&#039;Connor, the former Labor member who has quit the party in disgust at factional heavying and union influence to run as an independent, he may be in with a chance of winning back the seat he&#039;s already held for 14 years. And that will be one more on the list of 16 Rudd needs to take government that he will have to strike off. And it will be one more that he has to find somewhere else.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Now &lt;em&gt;if&lt;/em&gt; O&#039;Connor wins Corio (which Milne essentially admits is near impossible despite premising most of the column on that scenario) then the ALP will certainly need to pick up an additional seat to govern in their own right.

However there will be no &quot;striking off&quot; because Corio is not one of the 16 seats that the ALP need to pick up. It is already an ALP seat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We need a new non-debate general thread <img src='http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wp-content/mu-plugins/tango-smilies/tango/face-smile.png' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>I&#8217;m going to risk incurring Adam&#8217;s derision by mentioning Glen Milne&#8217;s article in the GG. However my interest is not in the transparent bias, but in the howler of an error made.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22624035-33435,00.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22624035-33435,00.html</a></p>
<blockquote><p>If the Liberals do preference O&#8217;Connor, the former Labor member who has quit the party in disgust at factional heavying and union influence to run as an independent, he may be in with a chance of winning back the seat he&#8217;s already held for 14 years. And that will be one more on the list of 16 Rudd needs to take government that he will have to strike off. And it will be one more that he has to find somewhere else.</p></blockquote>
<p>Now <em>if</em> O&#8217;Connor wins Corio (which Milne essentially admits is near impossible despite premising most of the column on that scenario) then the ALP will certainly need to pick up an additional seat to govern in their own right.</p>
<p>However there will be no &#8220;striking off&#8221; because Corio is not one of the 16 seats that the ALP need to pick up. It is already an ALP seat.</p>
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		<title>By: Geoff Robinson</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-61485</link>
		<dc:creator>Geoff Robinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Oct 2007 22:47:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-61485</guid>
		<description>The betting odds on Hinkler started as too favourable to Labor and seemed to ignore the redistribution. Neville has a personal vote but maybe Labor should have run their 1998-2004 candidate who was very unlucky in 1998 and 2001.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The betting odds on Hinkler started as too favourable to Labor and seemed to ignore the redistribution. Neville has a personal vote but maybe Labor should have run their 1998-2004 candidate who was very unlucky in 1998 and 2001.</p>
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		<title>By: London Eye</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-59927</link>
		<dc:creator>London Eye</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2007 17:31:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-59927</guid>
		<description>Kevin Rudd is doing a Makybe Diva over the 3200 metres of the Melbourne Cup.  Jumped well, settled mid-field without raising a sweat. Cantering and saving himself for the run home.   Johnny and Cossie have started like a frenzied quarter horse.  Sprinting ahead.... the good news is there are several laps to go and Rudd will loom up in the next fw weeks and win running away.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kevin Rudd is doing a Makybe Diva over the 3200 metres of the Melbourne Cup.  Jumped well, settled mid-field without raising a sweat. Cantering and saving himself for the run home.   Johnny and Cossie have started like a frenzied quarter horse.  Sprinting ahead&#8230;. the good news is there are several laps to go and Rudd will loom up in the next fw weeks and win running away.</p>
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		<title>By: Max</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-59922</link>
		<dc:creator>Max</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2007 15:34:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-59922</guid>
		<description>Full credit to LTEP for actually looking at things objectively, rather then blindly following the Labor lead, and and denouncing anything the libs do as &#039;desperate&#039; and any positive report of them &#039;not worth reading.&#039;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Full credit to LTEP for actually looking at things objectively, rather then blindly following the Labor lead, and and denouncing anything the libs do as &#8216;desperate&#8217; and any positive report of them &#8216;not worth reading.&#8217;</p>
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		<title>By: Kina</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-59907</link>
		<dc:creator>Kina</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2007 13:34:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-59907</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;253
ruawake Says: 
October 20th, 2007 at 8:27 pm 
I think Laborâ€™s primary is rock solid at about 45% maybe a point or two higher.

Add the greens 6-7% and FF 2% then it has to be at least 53% minimum TPP.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

I do believe Labor&#039;s primary is in excess of 45 and probably 47. If it leaks it may leak to the Greens more than the LNP.

Can&#039;t imagine going through all this at every poll. :(


----------------------------------------
Labor 20+ without media interference
Labor 5 with media interference</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>253<br />
ruawake Says:<br />
October 20th, 2007 at 8:27 pm<br />
I think Laborâ€™s primary is rock solid at about 45% maybe a point or two higher.</p>
<p>Add the greens 6-7% and FF 2% then it has to be at least 53% minimum TPP.</p></blockquote>
<p>I do believe Labor&#8217;s primary is in excess of 45 and probably 47. If it leaks it may leak to the Greens more than the LNP.</p>
<p>Can&#8217;t imagine going through all this at every poll. <img src='http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wp-content/mu-plugins/tango-smilies/tango/face-sad.png' alt=':(' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<br />
Labor 20+ without media interference<br />
Labor 5 with media interference</p>
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		<title>By: Chris Curtis</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-59905</link>
		<dc:creator>Chris Curtis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2007 13:19:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-59905</guid>
		<description>wysiwyg,

If you read www.platowa.com, you will see what a mess WA education is in.  Kevin Rudd&#039;s education revolution is much more sensible, and it is a pity that the madness of WA education is working against him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>wysiwyg,</p>
<p>If you read <a href="http://www.platowa.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.platowa.com</a>, you will see what a mess WA education is in.  Kevin Rudd&#8217;s education revolution is much more sensible, and it is a pity that the madness of WA education is working against him.</p>
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		<title>By: Frank Calabrese</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-59894</link>
		<dc:creator>Frank Calabrese</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2007 12:46:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-59894</guid>
		<description>I reckon Nick is a 6PR listener by those comments - and most likely an Eagles Fan who supports Ben Cousins :-)

Unfortunately, this is the quality journalism we get here thanks to The West, Ch 7 (both owned by Stokes) and Radio 6PR.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I reckon Nick is a 6PR listener by those comments &#8211; and most likely an Eagles Fan who supports Ben Cousins <img src='http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wp-content/mu-plugins/tango-smilies/tango/face-smile.png' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>Unfortunately, this is the quality journalism we get here thanks to The West, Ch 7 (both owned by Stokes) and Radio 6PR.</p>
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		<title>By: wysiwyg</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-59893</link>
		<dc:creator>wysiwyg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2007 12:43:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-59893</guid>
		<description>oops Frank meant your 265 not your 256</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>oops Frank meant your 265 not your 256</p>
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		<title>By: wysiwyg</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-59892</link>
		<dc:creator>wysiwyg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2007 12:42:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-59892</guid>
		<description>Frank @ 256 you gotta love nick&#039;s comments doncha?

&quot;We would be better off under Ruddâ€™s tax package but he still wonâ€™t get my vote ... as I have two young kids, I certainly do not need another Labour Party education revolution&quot;

D&#039;uh? What are they putting in the water over there?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Frank @ 256 you gotta love nick&#8217;s comments doncha?</p>
<p>&#8220;We would be better off under Ruddâ€™s tax package but he still wonâ€™t get my vote &#8230; as I have two young kids, I certainly do not need another Labour Party education revolution&#8221;</p>
<p>D&#8217;uh? What are they putting in the water over there?</p>
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		<title>By: Frank Calabrese</title>
		<link>http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2007/10/20/d-day-minus-35/comment-page-6/#comment-59883</link>
		<dc:creator>Frank Calabrese</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 20 Oct 2007 12:29:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/633#comment-59883</guid>
		<description>Comments on the Rudd Tax Plan from THe West&#039;s &quot;Blog&quot;

http://blogs.thewest.com.au/news/election-blog-rudds-tax-return/#comments</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Comments on the Rudd Tax Plan from THe West&#8217;s &#8220;Blog&#8221;</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.thewest.com.au/news/election-blog-rudds-tax-return/#comments" rel="nofollow">http://blogs.thewest.com.au/news/election-blog-rudds-tax-return/#comments</a></p>
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