A very encouraging result for the government from Westpoll in today’s West Australian, which has the Liberals holding firm in their Perth marginals of Stirling and Hasluck and set to win Cowan from Labor with a 5 per cent swing. The poll was conducted between Monday and Thursday with samples of a little over 400 for each seat. This is the second electorate-level poll Westpoll has conducted, and both have shown the Liberals travelling much better in these three seats than Westpoll’s regular statewide polling would suggest. If the overall 3 per cent swing indicated in today’s poll was replicated statewide, the two-party split in Western Australia would be at least 58-42 in favour of the Liberals. The last two statewide surveys showed Labor leads of 51.6-48.4 early last month and 53-47 early this month.
293 Comments
This reliability of this poll must be questioned.
It is contradictory to the Westpoll statewide trends which have continually shown swings to Labor.
400 people, whats that a MoE of 6%.
And, from what I’m hearing Labor is in a strong position in Stirling and Hasluck and doing ok in Cowan. I wonder if where they polled in Stirling, probably in just the richer and liberal coastal suburbs and not the labor inner areas.
HOW CAN THIS BE CORRECT?
hardly credible. if they are going to pitch stuff like this they need to learn to make it g
“Rejected in marginals, Labor ousts Tuckey with 20% swing”
Sandgropers like to be different but this is ridiculous. But Rudd should try to visit there more.
Told you so! Labor are set to LOSE seats in WA and these must be made up for in ADDITION to the 17 seats they require!
Bye bye Krudd!
Is there any standard that pollsters have to adhere to or is it up to them.
I believe there should be at least a mandatory set of requirements. Otherwise we end up with loads of nonsense that we don’t know if to take seriously or not.
It is contradictory to the Westpoll statewide trends which have continually shown swings to Labor.”"
Maybe before the election. It’s a different ball game now with the real contest in earnest and the tax cuts being announced.
If you believe in the value of an MP’s personal vote then Stirling and Hasluck could be explained by the “sophomore surge”. And Cowan explained by the departure of Edwards.
Still, it’s hard to believe that all three seats will trend differently from the state as a whole, in such a significant way. With the state polling and seat polling in apparent contradiction, I can only surmise that one of them is wrong.
Don’t know vote allocated ? What a load of bollocks. If people tell you that they don’t know how they are going to vote, how the heck can you allocate them?
Its codswollop.
They should get a real pollster to do it.
I think the evidence is pointing to the fact at on a seat by seat basis, the Coalition vote is much more solid than the national polls suggest.
Difficult to know what’s going on in WA – Labor is claiming to be a chance of winning 2-3 seats, the government insists they’re winning all 10 of their seats plus Cowan.
But marginal seat polls right across the country look better for the government than the more general ones. Queensland-wide polling shows a 9% swing minimum, compared with the 5% in the marginals last week; Tassie marginals showed a 5% swing this week, and Howard insists he’s winning Eden-Monaro.
Government might well hang on with a 48% 2PP if these numbers are right.
heheheh funny to watch the Labor staffers squirm at polls like these toughen up boys if you cant hack it that the ALP will go further behind in WA consider this….no Beazley and anti-AWA stance and the Govts tax policy will destroy Labor reducing their seats to 3 or 4 lol how hilarious…
Glad to see Keenan and Henry surviving with this poll and picking up Cowan the Coalition may yet get over the line…
YOU BEWDY!
lots of large moves in the betting markets over the last week:
http://jackman.stanford.edu/oz/Aggregate2007/bettingmarkets/avgWeeklyProb.pdf
Patterson Market Research (Westpoll) were only out by 9% in Stirling last election.
With the Liberals putting a lot of resources into these
3 seats it is possible that they can be hanging on
in Stirling and Hasluck and
just winning in Cowan while yet there is a 5-6%
swing to ALP overall in the state (as shown in
recent statewide westpolls and Newspoll
quarterlys).
My calculations suggest that to get an average
of 6% statewide but be consistent with today’s poll,
then the swings in the other 12 WA seats must
average 8%.
This puts into serious doubt Kalgoorlie and brings
Canning, Forrest and Moore into contention.
Independently I am hearing of good local
campaigns in these seats and seeing
the bookmakers taking note of increased
chances of Labor wins or (at least) Liberal losses.
Early days, punters.
Rudd and the ACTU need to harden the f8ck up though. Give em some curry!
The media are rubbihs, and hopelessly co,ormised by the governmetn handouts of the last months. So lets take that for granted. Its always easier for the tories to win – which will make their comeuppance sweeter.
Two weeks of fresh Dorkchoices ads and we’ll watch them crying into their bibs as the polls snap shut at 53 -47.
Left E more people are on AWAs and like them in WA so your Union ads will do nothing to win back any voters…the Libs are putting lots of $$$ into those 2 marginals and i believe they have the resources to hold them…especially given the polls indicate Labor is struggling in WA…looks like it will 17 or 18 seats for Labor to win thanks to WA being a Tory rock!
Nothing surprising in these polls, Stirling, Cowan and Hasluck are behaving like marginal seats do, they are close and these marginal seats will move around a bit over the next five Saturdays.
Seems quite incredible. Stirling and Hasluck to double their 2004 Lib margins and Cowan to go south by 5% for Labor. All this with a statewide result much closer than any of these three! WTF
And where is Swan, eh? Obviously a 20% swing there to Labor to balance the ledger.
With the highly suspect Galaxy the other day and now this? Makes you wonder.
Anyway, I’ll let the sandgropers have their way. Rudd will have it in the bag before polls close in Perth. Remember Tas in 1983 (another example of parochial electoral bonding). All five seats went to the Libs but Hawke got 53.2% 2PP. Take that.
(Talking about parochialism – I’m glad Kevvie’s a Q’lander)
I for one seriously doubt the ALP will lose any seats they held under Latham, Glen.
But yes, WA marginals are clearly anyone’s for the winning.
Game on!! Let’s roll Ruddster.
I will repost this excerpt:
NewScientist magazine may be good news for Labor. It has an article about why people vote the way they do after having studied 30 years of elections results around the world. The answer, people arrive at their choice via social networking. So if 3 or so years of gradual social networking opinions have arrived at a vote for Labor, it has been a personally arrived at choice – it is not likely to be swayed by campaigning – unless you get a 9/11.
“The natural pattern behind our votesâ€
NewScientist 13/10/07
Quotes:
Voting follows the same pattern regardless of country or economics, and it could all be based on networking.
Analysis of election results over 30 years in different countries shows that, for each political party, voting follows the same patter, regardless of nationality, culture, history or economics.
Using a simple computer model, they have shown that the person-to-person process is enough to generate the universal pattern observed in the data.
These influences percolate through the social network until everyone has made a decision. The physicists results fit the real data almost exactly.
I want Rudd to win as much as the next man, but it’s just as silly to dismiss these polls as it was for Abbott to dismiss polls earlier in the year. The reality is that the ALP has run a truly pathetic campaign this first week, and is feeding into the government’s me-too line whilst infuriatingly failing to fight back against the anti-union ads by actually promoting the good work the unions do. The ALP is still in front, but the government obviously has a clear strategy that is working, and if Labor doesn’t pick up its game dramatically, it will lose. Those who find solace in the ALP’s 1% improvement in the primary vote should remember their own words – 1% is well within the MoE and statistically irrelevant. We’re in for a tough fight, and I’m horrified at the prospect of the ALP throwing away a year’s good work at the final hurdle.
george youre being ridiculous. calm down and remember what happened the last 2 times howard was lauded with a great comeback- the polls worsened for him
George — I agree, danger signs are flashing for me too. There’s no one better than John Howard at buying votes, and you can bet he has a few tricks up his sleeve still.
The ALP and unions cannot afford to sit back and say “there’s a long way to go, we’ll win the rest of the race”. They had the advantage (and still do, though it is dropping rapidly) and should be kicking the Libs while they are down. Instead they are letting them get to their feet while Rudd stands back like a gentleman.
Patterson Market Research (Westpoll) were only out by 8.3% in Eden-Monaro last election.
So, Westpoll is probably not the most reliable indicator out there. Will be interested to see what happens in Canning. Apparently Libs are worried. Its got an inflated margin after the “Latham effect”. If they are worried about Canning, no way will they win Hasluck or Stirling.
“In the end, the fact that we overstated the Liberals by nearly 3% and understated Labour by 5.5% is within our expectations…” Patterson Market Research.
Don’t fear, Ruddites, all is well.
Just put yourselves in Rudd and Howard’s shoes!
If you are Howard: you are losing going into an election so you have to get momentum and you bring out the big guns week 1 – nothing to lose.
If you are Rudd: You are in a winning position and the election is yours to lose – no point in going hard week 1. Relax let the opposition bring on the battle. You can afford a few body blows. Think Mohammed Ali in the ‘rumble in the jungle’ – take the blows and weary your opponent then BANG! Punch him in the head
All too early people.
Andrew, I’m not so much worried about the recent polls (though I am not pleased to see the government finally break through the 10% TPP / 40% PV barrier) as I am at Labor’s performance this week. I do know that we poll-junkies and the commentariat make a lot more of these things than average voters, but I just can’t see how anyone could not score this last week a win for the government. If they pull out this rumoured health ‘king-hit’ (and how I hate that word), and just keep battering the ALP with bold policy pledges week after week, while the ALP is too scared to pull out anything big of its own…I have a horrible feeling in my gut that they might just pull it off.
On the home front, I must admit these polls on the WA marginals alarm me. The problem is that over here we only have two daily papers, the West and the Oz, and whilst the media’s influence can be overstated, it does have an influence, and I think the West in particular does the ALP a lot of harm. And whilst most candidates are fairly unimportant, Graham Edwards was a popular incumbent, and I suspect the ALP’s margin in Cowan was significantly inflated. That said, I think Tinley will do well, so I wouldn’t write off Stirling just yet.
Patterson Market Research (Westpoll) were only out by 10.4% in Kalgoorlie last election.
12th August 2007, 8:15 WST (source: West Australian)
Prime Minister John Howard has attributed the latest WestPoll showing a dip in coalition support in Western Australia as “volatility†created by the polling method.
The poll, published exclusively in The West Australian today, shows a huge eight percentage point swing to the ALP, delivering it 54 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
“I would have liked it to be the other way around but that poll (Westpoll) has a lot of volatility in it,†Mr Howard told reporters in Sydney today.
“Several months ago it had Labor ahead, then it had us ahead and now it has got Labor ahead again – very volatile.â€
Ho Hum: Pass the popcorn.
Im liking your contributions on this theme, ruawake.
Which brings us back to a key point: ok, yes, flat week for Rudd, but ignoring yer two dodgier pollsters – Nielsen has Howard pancaked by a steamrolling ALP primary vote somewhere 8 and 8.15pm on the 24th.
29 ruawake In other words Patterson Market Research are w*nkers.
An insight into their methodology
“It may be that the simplest approach for Kalgoorlie is to conduct the telephone survey as normal, but then to factor in about a 3-3.5% “boost” to the ALP based on their traditional superior showing in the outlying areas.”
They have zero credibility in my opinion.
The Liberals will quote the dodgy polls so that their followers and Glen think they have a chance.
Like George, I am more concerned with the lack of tactical sophistication shown by Rudd during the first week of the campaign than I am with the Westpoll. The Galaxy poll is a bit of a worry, but it’s gone down that low before. The drop in the polls, IMO, reflects a poor performance by the ALP over the past couple of weeks. Before that they were creaming them.
Thanks for those facts, ruawake.
Sounds as though Patterson Market Research should stick to doing what they do best, whatever that may be.
The ALP and unions cannot afford to sit back and say “there’s a long way to go, we’ll win the rest of the raceâ€. They had the advantage (and still do, though it is dropping rapidly) and should be kicking the Libs while they are down. Instead they are letting them get to their feet while Rudd stands back like a gentleman.
Ashley
With respect, Ashley, that is nonsense. Do you honestly think that is what is happening inside the respective Labor and union campaign headquarters? After nearly a year of brilliantly outmanoeuvring Howard, they have suddenly decided, in an election campaign proper, to put their feet up, give Howard an easy ride, and try to coast in on the last several months of great polls? That is seriously naive thinking. A couple of slightly adverse polls, with mixed and not entirely convincing results (and for the Westralian poll, a 6% MOE), and you are panicking already? The polls were always going to fall somewhat once the campaign got underway. Howard has fired his biggest shot, tax bribes, and he got 2%, tops, and only maybe, Labor’s tax policy hasn’t been factored in yet (we’ll see what Newspoll on Monday says).
Like some else said, harden the f**k up. This campaign is just getting started. If the previous week is the worst Labor have to deal with, then they have nothing to worry about. If the poll results for Labor are consistently dismal in 3 weeks (primary vote roughly equal to the Coalition, 2PP below 52-52.5%), then you will have cause for bitching.
Even as a self confessed lefty, I would find it absolutely hilarious for labor to get 55% TPP nationwide and still lose based on seats. When the coalition claimed a mandate from it, my irony metre would burst into flames.
Ashley,
You are absolutely spot on. Many of these posters make think of what it must have been like in Saddam’s bunker in Baghdad – “its early days yet the American’s are only on the outskirts of Baghdad”, “dont worry we have secret weapons to use”, “toughen up – we expected some losses but keep your faith in the final victory” etc
It seems Labor does not know how to connect with voters.
It hasn’t been a “flat week”. It’s been ok, ok? What is with rusted on Laborites, always looking for the Messiah.
There isn’t going to be one, and there doesn’t need to be one. You know, what Peter Beattie said: “Kevins steady, Kevin’s reliable…” That’s all he needs to be. And that scares the sh*t out Howards PR people.
One week and the bunker analogy switches from the Libs to the ALP LOL
Does that mean if the polls pick up again for the ALP next week that’s their Battle of the Bulge?
William
Knitted Knockers and the volatility of the starters gun at play here…10 month trend…refresh possums and calm down…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX6WHvxTYHs&mode=related&search=
for ESJ
Meanwhile, back in Bennelong, the PM went for a little stroll today, as aap reports:
“It took almost an hour for Mr Howard to walk the two-blocks down the central drag of Eastwood, as he was mobbed by supporters and gawkers wanting to shake his hand and get a picture taken.
“Ten more years!” supporters called.
Mr Howard later said it was good to get out in his electorate.
“Bennelong is always tough, it’s a marginal seat, I expect to win but I don’t take it for granted,” he told reporters.
Ms McKew, a former ABC television presenter, also worked the crowd, wearing her Kevin07 shirt and surrounded by supporters, but did not receive anything like the ecstatic response for the man she wants to unseat.
Buh-bye, Maxie!
Of course I don’t think they’ve decided to put their feet up and give Howard an easy ride. So you’re knocking down a straw man there. I’m sure they are desperate to win and will do whatever it takes.
What I am “bitching” about, is that I think they have made a tactical error in pursuit of their goal.
I think it is undeniable that they have conceded the first week of the campaign to the Coalition. Their strategists may think this is a good move, because they have a cunning plan. Unfortunately I’m not privy to the plan, so I don’t share your unshakable confidence.
Anyway, I agree, we need to wait and see how the next few weeks pan out. It’s a long campaign, and my point is: not a good start for Labor, please pick up your game.
I’m sure they will, because the worst is probably now behind them. But momentum is everything in politics, and I think it was a bad move to sit on their hands during the first week of the campaign. There’s obviously a strategy behind it, but it’s not one that I would call the “safe, solid, can’t go too wrong” strategy… which is the strategy I think Labor should be employing when they are (or were) so far ahead in the polls.
Correct me if I am wrong but Labor’s 4 % deficit in Cowan represents 16 opinions in a poll of 400 voters and the swing since the last poll represents a 10 people with a different vote from those polled last time. Yes I imagine this poll will buck up the Liberals but I would not put any bets on the electorate based on this.
Ashley, I don’t think you’re getting the subtilties of the game.
Rudd can now claim to be the underdog.
Trouble for the government is the best the government can do in WA is to gain 1 seat.
They face a potential holocaust in Victoria, while NSW looks pretty sick.
These positive polls for the government increase the risk of a Workchoices protest vote.
Yes, ‘Westpolls’ have been ‘out of tune’ for ages.
And this one?
Of course!
Bye Johnny
i had to write this somewhere.
Its good to see that The Australian has a good grasp on Australian history. I think some of them should take the PM’s citizenship test.
Kim Beazley snr farewelled at state funeral
Nervous nellies – remember that ACN (probably the most reliable poll so far) shows a +10% swing on primaries from last election TO Labor.
Still landslide territory.
Most of that is in Vic, NSW & SA.
The election will be won before we see any WA results
Can someone explain this? The Australian and the SMH have published the same story on the Granny Smith Festival. One for media watch?
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/community-festival-turns-nasty/2007/10/20/1192301089223.html
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22618687-12377,00.html
Victoria and NSW have to swing bloody hard to make up for potentially losing Cowan and not getting the two lib marginals in Perth.
Yes Oakshott, including the typo
“…but did receive anything like the ecstatic response for the man she wants to unseat”
Interesting!
Oakeshott … it happens all the time… it’s an AAP story so is copied to all the news outlets.
The Western Australian voters are historically as mad as a bucket of frogs.
They are geographically, and increasingly economically, disconnected from the rest of Australia, so be prepared so see wild and at times strange polling that does not seem to connect with “east coast reality”. The Westpoll’s volatility could be a reflection of this rather than solely their small samples.
In any event, WA will be irrelevant on election night. Kevin Rudd and the ALP will have won or lost on the east coast before WA scrutineers even bother to start counting votes.
The SMH is attributed but the Australian isn’t.
The election will be won by Labor before we hear the results of Queensland seats.
Western Australians are often more than a little strange. They refer to all other Australians as from ‘over east’. Their milk-bars are called deli’s. Its too strange.
Ashley
I think it is undeniable that they have conceded the first week of the campaign to the Coalition.
Wait until the next round of polls before you draw that conclusion. The worst you can say about Labor at this point is that they have had a quiet week.
But momentum is everything in politics,
Not everything.
Besides which, this is a long campaign and my bet is Howard will burn himself out early on. The truth is he has virtually nothing to offer, certainly nothing new. He said it himself that we all know what he stands for. But this means he cannot make any serious u-turns on major policies at this late stage, without people seeing him as an opportunistic hypocrite, and asking why he has suddenly seen the light after more than 11 years. Not to mention major problems in health, education, skills, and the environment, for which he cannot blame anyone else. There is simply too much baggage, too much ground for him to recover, and too little time to do it in. The basic problem for Howard is the electorate wants change across a range of issues, and he can’t (or won’t) offer it. Howard and the electorate are now travelling in increasingly divergent directions.
All Labor basically has to do is keep its primary a point or two above the Coalition, and its 2PP above 52%.
#52: That story was written by AAP not the Australian. The ‘breaking news’ section of the Australian site uses a feed from the AAP News Wire that updates automatically.
We have delis in SA, too.
Saw a very powerful Labor Workchoices tv ad an hour ago during the Rugby. Not much of a tv watcher. Have these ads been on for long?
I would be very interested to hear Oakeshott Country or Hugo’s view on the campaign/ possible outcomes.
Bingo. Evidently they’ve been reading my posts today
bryce, they have been non-existent, which is one of the things I’ve been whinging about.
The ACTU workchoices ads will feature “real people, telling real stories” they also say they have a “few surprises” in store.
I wouldn’t be worried at all Ashley in fact it is rather fascinating that in the Morgan polls and the Neilsen it shows a voter attitude that the LNP may find disturbing.
The AC Neilsen voters basically lined up behind their preferences when the election was called – and Labor’s primary increased by 1%! Doesn’t look like a soft vote to me, and even with the tax cut!
The Morgan would dissapoint the LNP in two ways as well – its own primary didn’t move even though Labor’s dropped 4% – it all went to the Greens. That indicates that much of the Labor’s primary if it does change hands may well go to the Greens anyway.
The only joy the LNP got out of the two polls in reality was a 2% jump in primary that didn’t reduce Labor’s primary.
To me this indicates that it is going to be difficult for the LNP to get into Labor’s primary vote.
But as this is one poll the whole thing could be MOE and the next poll something else again – maybe 55/45.
The Galaxy – well we saw the questions, know that earlier in the year the sister of a blogger here abouts was pushed polled by them, to get the 53/47. That was a bacon saving poll for Howard.
AND the article excerpts I posted earlier from NewScientist magazine that analysed 30 years of elections world wide, seemed to suggest that elections choices were created by the progression of networking over time. Thus the current Primary should be steady because of that. It was a personal choice based on personal contacts and not by Polly’s campaigning.
I hardly bother to watch any tv and I do not buy murdoch papers so I cant say how Labor has been campaigning this week. By all accounts they have left a little too much free air to the LNP – or that could be our conception because of hightened concern.
Howard supporters should not be too confident about Bennelong. The Asian population certainly have worked him out.
The Asians of Bennelong know Howard pretty well:
“Indeed, some Chinese-Australian professionals have formed a Maxine Support Group, partly because of John Howard’s reticence on the immigration question when Pauline Hanson harnessed nativistic anxieties to propel her political rise in the late 1980s.
Others, though, have been beneficiaries of Australia’s economic boom, and are culturally unused to changes in government.
“Look at what he has done for the past 11 years for the economy,†says Danny Ng. “Everyone is better off.â€
“He’s too old and he’s a liar,†says another man. “He’s untrustworthy and tricky. I want him gone. He took us into Iraq.â€
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7048598.stm
the LNP vote went up when they had to stop playing all those stupid tax-payer ads for months. Perhaps the ads were keeping their vote down. I know they drove people insane, even those that would vote for them.
If Labor looks as though it’s had a small week (and I don’t agree that they have), that’s only because Howard and his whacky team have had to release their big numbered tax policy just to get some runs on the board. It’s early days yet, and Labor has it all in hand.
Speaking of whacky, here’s a fantastic mood lifter for anyone anxious about the election:
http://www.theage.com.au/multimedia/electionGame_oct07/
Sample’s too small, the dates between the surveys are too far apart, and there’s no margin of error stated, which on a survey this small would be huge, maybe enough to say that the result could be anywhere between 45 and 55% for the ALP. And, holy hell, isn’t that what everyone’s been saying?
This is just statistics for the fun of making statistics. If I were the Coalition MP for Hasluck or Stirling, I would be expecting a race that goes right down to the wire, and not a pro-government swing. If’d have to assume that people in Cowan just really, really like Luke Simpkins, but I’d also have to say that any seat the ALP didn’t lose in 2004 isn’t heading west (sorry) now.
acutally, looking up at previous posts, I’d suggest a margin of error of +/- 10%. That means, no better than chance.
people were saying prior to 2004 that the ALP coundnt lose any they held in 2001.
ruawake, the real people telling real stories sounds very promising.
This poll is absolutely nothing to panic about. If Labor are to win this election they will do so before the West results are known. I think one thing we can garner from these polls is the ALP will hold Swan. Otherwise we’d be hearing about that seat a lot more. I find it odd that the West would poll Cowan but not Swan.
Kit Says:
October 20th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
Yes Oakshott, including the typo
I did a post on this type of plagiarism yesterday or the day before.
It is absolutely rampant lately and I have noticed so many examples of it that if somebody influential doesn’t speak up about it so that something is done about it, then I really fear for the future of the printed media.
The worst offenders are those who also have their articled published online.
nath @ 73 I think you may be onto something there!
Hi EStJ
The final 2 weeks of the 1993 campaign showed that the campaign period can make a huge difference. Therefore I think any ‘declaration’ at this stage is horses**t.
Having said that Labor went into the campaign with a clear advantage and the first week, for both sides, did not produce anything to engage the great uninterested. therefore Labor is still favourite at this stage – but who knows.
I think one of the great things about having psephology as a hobby is the anxiety that campaigns produce.
For all those obsessing about primary votes.
I dont agree that Labor automatically wins if it gets a primary over 40%. Ordinarily where there are minor parties this is true because preference flows come back.
IMO this will be a very polarising election and by week 6 people will line up one way or the other. I would say the combined 2 major party vote will be at least 85% and possibly closer to 90%. Also this election will mark the final execution of the Democrats and their vote.
Therefore to win I think Labor will need a primary vote of 45% or higher as I think the coalition vote will be close but not quite 45%, assuming a greens vote of 6% this should give Labor a reasonable shot of getting over 51% and a majority. (On the assumption Labor will not win a majority of seats with a 2PP under 51%
mark, those ads were horrific. It wasn’t just the frequency. Those Ir ads with the guys standing around a barbecue and at a pub were so condascending and patronising that I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it had some influence.
Patterson’s decision to focus on Hasluck, Stirling and Cowan and not Swan would have been made some time ago. Given three seats to pick, I would have done the same, taking into account the impact of Graham Edwards’ retirement.
sounds about right to me ESJ, only going to be 5-6 seats in it either way.
Nath, I agree with you. The adds were contrived and condescending. if you compare those adds with the ACTU I think you can see a marked difference in impact. The ACTU adds will be back and having their impact.
The majority of voters are going about their daily business without the slighest anxiety about the election or polls.
In the back of their minds 54% reckon they will vote ALP and 46% LNP. Thats more than a million voters difference. AND they have been of that opinion all year. Calling the election didn’t change them, the tax cuts didnt change them…and we have a balancing Labor tax cut with education bonus to give some sense of differentiation.
The Galaxy may well have been a deliberate attempt at momentum change in conjunction with calling the election and the tax cut. Can’t say that it is working too well as yet.
Looks bad for the ALP
Labor needs to be obsessed about Primary votes. Latham’s strength at the last election was through minor preferences. This time around it is in the Primaries – big difference between the two, primary votes are a much stronger indication of intention.
I am sticking to my prediction – if no Media interference or electioneering on behalf of Howard then 20-25 seats to Labor. Otherwise about 5 seats.
The Howard Haters cannot stand it when the shoe is on the other foot. Reading all your stupid comments questioning if this poll is accurate makes me laugh. Chalk up week 1 for our cute little Rodent. Tin Tin had a great year but is cracking under pressure. He is up against the Master Coconut.
A little too early to start conceding! You’re all playing into Glen’s hands: remember, don’t feed the trolls!
The results from that polling outfit in WA have been contradictory, all over the place and frankly unreliable.
And Glen, don’t get too cocky, claiming victory prematurely could backfire on you come November 24.
Gee how things change! The ALP is starting to crack and we all knew that they could never hold the big lead they had. If the ALP loose this it will be purge time for them but which side is the blame? It cant be the left because they are nearly extinct. It must be ‘Adams ‘ Right that need to take the blame picking a boring conservative leader and cloning the Libs. No wonder Adam is so vocal his credibility is on the line.
Patterson have always done a marginal poll in 5 seats. Canning, Hasluck, Kalgoorlie, Stirling and Swan were the seats they polled last election.
Does anyone remember what seats they polled in June?
Bill: we all know you’d love the ALP to lose!
Rudd campaigning in La Trobe and Deakin today:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/20/2065069.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Bill you still reckon you are going to hold the balance of power in the senate with a coalition HoR.
Margin of error for each of the electorates (sample of 400) is +/- 4.9%
which means that every single one of those results could, (and I think should be) assumed to be wrong.
Its obviously just a coincidence that all three polls are distorted in the same direction.
Get a grip people. Were not even one week into the campaign and the nervous nellies are getting the vapours. Labour is in good shape, strong lead on primary votes. WA is no big deal, this poll is so unreliable with small samples and Westpolls tragic record. The Tories here are just clutching at straws – there’s not much good news for them about the place and there will be even less after Rudd creams Howard in the debate. Roll on Newspoll
mike_f (#76) The margin of error on these three polls is almost 5%. You may find this calculator useful for looking at future polls.
They’re not even terrible polls. (Bar this Westpoll… and remember the previous 2 had the ALP in front 54/46 and 53/47 if I recall correctly).
53/47, 54/56 and 55.5/44.5 were what Labor were getting at their peak in ‘04. Additionally, there’s no point overly fretting… we’ve each got one vote and do with it what we choose. If the other side is elected the world doesn’t end… we just try again in 3 years time. If Labor doesn’t want to be trying again in 3 years time they’ll step it up. Overcompensate for a non-compliant media (pull some serious stunts Labor…) and the ALP should be fine.
3 Polls?
ACN showed an increase in Labor primary to 48%
Morgan showed labor primaries going to the greens (and thus back to labor) while the coalition stayed static.
Galaxy has been all over the place, but it is weird that whenever Howard is in dire need of a good poll galaxy provides it, then it moves back to the rest.
So basically its the same as it has been for the past 9 months.
I can’t wait for Glen, Steve Kaye and the other Liberals having to eat their words on November 24.
So the Liberal strategy is to pour all their money into WA? Risky, particularly as they seem to be on the nose on the Eastern seaboard and in SA. Goodness knows why those Liberals in WA are worth saving, a rather unimpressive lot from what I’ve seen of them in parliament.
How do you know that it’s not likely?
Better than Howard trying to bowl a cricket ball.
Glen: personally attacking Maxine McKew? I thought you were a better man than that. You Liberals are a nasty lot.
Edward your honest opinion is just uninformed assertions based on wishful thinking.
Your constant attempts to denigrate the opinions of professionals like Adam and Rod Cameron says more about your juvenile prejudices. Why not check out Mumble and Possum who are relentlessly rigorous in their analyses.
Of course that would mean opening your mind to alternative interpretations of data which you seem pathologically incapable. Better to rely on the mindless abuse when facts get in the way eh!
Let the Libs and Nats keep pouring their resources into the marginals. All the while safer seats are opening up behind them.
Anyone who seriously considers that the Coalition is attempting to do anything more than diversionary tactics in ALP marginals has totally misread the situation.
As they say: If the swing is on, the swing is on. The Coalition may end up clawing onto a few marginals but they cannot win with the overall (lack of) support they currently have.
Oh dear Glenn… when you have that much compassion for people that you’re willing to call them ’spastics’…
Hey u guys call Howard a rodent all the time all im saying is Maxine cannot dance i cant either but seriously if u cant why make a fool of yourself…i pity the fool but meh..
Your spin on the Westpoll puts Nostro to shame Rudd Huggers your denial will be worse than waiting for Wenck to break through…WA is a Liberal bastion!
Costello – Lambada
Err guys, you’re going to need a better explanation than margin of error.
Given the similarity of all three results, it is disingenuous to pretend that all three of them are residing at the same outer end of the MoE band. It just aint likely.
Glen, the problem with calling someone “spastic” is not that it’s offensive to Maxine McKew.
David
“Given the similarity of all three results” what similarity?
If you add the three polls, 1200, the moe is +/- 2.8% but inherent in this number is reliable methodology. I’m sure we’ll never know if there was or wasn’t (just wait till the 24th I guess).
Anyway, I think that Labor really does have a problem with the West. Just like Qld last election.
Fortunately, whatever has contaminated the WA political psyche hasn’t crossed any of its borders. They must think they are really special people over there!
Labor can still win handsomely if things don’t improve in WA.
Glen,
You tories are a bunch of Haters aren’t you
Am I the only one skeptical of the line “Don’t know vote allocated”?
i dont refer to people with disabilities as ’spastic’ i merely referred to the incoherent manner in which McKew attempted to dance today…i wouldnt intentionally make fun of people living with a disability i wouldnt sink that low…so i apologise if i offended but i did not intend people to take it that way in the slightest….
I’m a little nervous myself after the last couple of days’ worth of polls.
The important thing, of course, is to realise that it is a very bad idea to draw conclusions from single polls, or even a single round of polls from the major pollsters. If we were to see a further string of Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan & Galaxy results over the next 2 weeks and they all said 53% or 52% for Labor, then I would worry.
Right now I’m willing to bet we’ll see more than one 57% or 56% results in the next fortnight.
Yes you really need to look at the seat by seat breakdown./ It would be good if the pollsters at least provided a state by state breakdown. Base on state polling we should be able to determine the results of the senate election once party above-the-line preferences have been finalised.
William,
Can you please delete Glen’s childish post about spastics dancing at 104. Do we really need these insulting and juvenile comments?
GG – What’s up with you? You seem to have a touch of that Paul K aggro going? You need to chill out more buddy!
I can assure you if Labor wins my life will be as unaffected as if Liberal wins.
I think Adam is the first to admit he is partisan and Rod Cameron was after all Labor’s long time pollster.
I’d say it is hard to deny this election will be in part a big referendum on the place of unions/IR/ WorkChoices in our society. That in turn has been a big part of our Australian and the ALP’s history.
On one level its choosing between the collective and the individual. Doesnt get more philosophical then that.
If this isnt going to polarise the vote nothing will.
94
Howard Hater Says:
October 20th, 2007 at 5:40 pm
Bill: we all know you’d love the ALP to lose!
Ummm I dont think so
One should take westpoll seriously if only because it has show the biggest resilience to the Rudd honeymoon and so it is possible that these figures are accurate considering we havent been leaked internal party polling for any of these seats…
Glen, on the subject of internal polling for WA
The impression I’ve got and from what I’ve heard. Both parties state they are in front in Stirling and Hasluck and will win Cowan. I believe I also heard rumblings a while back that the Coalition thought they may have a chance in Brand.
Nothing has been said about Swan, which makes me think it’s not moving.
Paul K – long bow buddy.
ESJ
“If this isnt going to polarise the vote nothing will.” is a sensible comment.
If you look at ACN 90% are voting for the Majors. 48-42. That leaves 10%
I suggest about 6% Green vote and 2% FF. That means the Coalition has to make up 3% on primaries from the remaining 2% of voters.
Not easy.
ESJ, My life will as unaffected as well. Except that I wont have to see Howard’s face all over the place. That would be pleasant.
here here Glen who started the spastic stuff anyway?
Fair enough Paul, comment deleted.
Brand is clearly going to be marginal but Labor should win i wouldnt be surprised if Kim helped out the local Labor candidate which will help him alot id say…i know the State Libs are pathetic in WA but they arent when it comes to Federal politics so they should not be written off yet!
The Greens will get more that 6%
Its good to see you enthusiastic and enjoying life glen.
They were the same ones as this time. The results for both are in the graphic.
There is no reason to be. Newspoll, and anyone else that gives results that add up to 100, does the same.
I’ve heard (albeit third-hand) that the Worst ’suggests’ which parts of marginal seats that the Westpoll should be conducted in, with strongly Liberal suburbs preferred.
I find that a bit hard to believe, Charlie.
The similarities:
1. They all show small pro-Liberal swings from 2004
2. These latest results are pretty similar to the ones Westpoll released for the same marginal seats a few months ago
William,
How do you explain:
“4 per cent “uncommitted†and 2 per cent “refused†excluded”
From the last newspoll? Their TPP still adds up to 100%
*Shrugs*
My source is a friend-of-a-friend who works at the paper. I don’t know her so I don’t know how reliable it is. Will let others decide if it is believable or not. I tried to encourage my friend to get her in touch with Media Watch, but she is apparently unwilling to risk her job.
William – thanks for deleting comments about ’spastics’. Glen, it may be that such words are used in the schoolyard these days, but to use that term in a derogatory way on a public forum is just not on. Spastic is an old fashioned word used to describe people who suffered from cerebral palsy, a medical disorder. Not even the medical profession use the term now, most of us have moved on to a more caring and sensitive society.
{and Rod Cameron was after all Labor’s long time pollster.}
And John Singleton was a long time Labor Advertising Agency.
I would say that Rod Cameron was as much “rusted on” Labor as John Singleton.
What in the blazes does their prior association have to do with their expressed opinion. In the case of Michael Kroger it is self evident where his affiliation and opinion lies, but other than that any consideration of Rod Cameron as being totally biased is a nonsense.
he is not a Labor pollster, he runs a business and can surely give an appraisal of the current political situation equally as thoughtful and insightful as Paul Keating, John Hewson or Malcolm Fraser.
This, because he or they, do not have a personal, vested interest in the outcome. It’s absolutely nonsense and I can’t believe people can lower themselves to constantly venting such ridiculous invective.
Howie had a very serious senior moment today “Mr. Speaker, Mr. Speaker” he said, like “mum, mum, ’tis not fair” when heckled by the crowd, forgot where the fk where he was…. ha ha
David
1. They all show a massive swing to Labor from 2004.
2. Westpoll’s latest results are light years of difference from the June figures.
Melbcity (#121) – the sample sizes for the published national polls mean that the disaggregated state components of the poll are too small to provide meaningful results (ie the error margin for each state, and particularly the smaller states, is very high).
However Newspoll publishes a quarterly aggregation of their polls with a large enough sample to allow useful demographic and geographic breakdowns. The last one (July-Sep) is here (look at the 21 Sep posts). Our friendly psephological Possum’s analysis is here.
A fortnight ago AC Nielsen released a six-month amalgamation of their polls with geographic and demographic breakdown. I summarised the results (including the addition of 6 months’ worth of Newspoll & Nielsen) in this thread.
I too saw JWH on the tv news calling for the ’speaker’ to rescue him from hecklers today in his seat. This shows he is, and always has been, the ultimate political animal, living in a world which is disconnected from reality. However, there was no spineless, syscophant Speaker from the Reps there to rescue him today. Not a good look, silly old git.
WA is different. The Oz today reported the leader the of the WA Nurses Union wanting AWAs retained.
RE WA
I think it very unlikely Labor will lose any seats that they retained in 2004
possible change seats are Stirling, Hasluck, Canning , Kalgoorlie…….
with the first 2 needing about a 2% swing…. It appears there is at least a slight swing to Labor statewide maybe 3 to 5%
Forrest could be lost also given the intervention of the ind candidate ….
also this opinion poll seems to be unreliable
runawake – you might want to reassess those two statements in light of the facts.
1. The graphic shows pro-Lib swings of 5%, 1% and 2%.
2. The difference from the June results shows Lib improvements of 2.5%, 0% and 2%. That suggests either a small movement to the Coalition since June or else just a bit of sampling error noise.
{the leader the of the WA Nurses Union wanting AWAs retained.}
Hard to imagine a paid up member of the Liberal Party stating any thing to the contrary.
Can’t imagine him still being WANU Secretary after the next Union elections, especially if the Coalition wins and the WA nurses are placed on AWA’s on inferior conditions to what they are on now.
Perhaps the commonwealth should dissolve. We’ll be ok in the People’s Republic of Victoria. The weight of all these Queenslanders and West Australians if too much for us.
110 Glen Says: October 20th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
Glen, the term ‘lying rodent’, in reference to John Howard, is from a liberal minister.
That does not mean it is not offensive….Pi!
Alex your comments are also offensive to call anybody a silly old git if its ok to go ballistic over a comment not directed at the disabled then William should delete your crude posts!
OK David.
If you want to believe a pollster who has a track record for results twice the size of the margin of error thats OK.
I would not be surprised considering the inherent liberal bias of THe West – Today’s hatchet job on Rud by Paul (I love Debortolis as much as Tony McManus) Murray is a prime example – he must have felt like an absolute dickhead when his prediction of a coalition victory in the State Election didn’t eventuate.
Ah but runawake, I never said that I ‘believed’ what these polls are showing. Merely that I don’t think that sampling error is a convincing explanation for the Liberal leads.
Paul Murray once described this website as “terrific”, so I tend to think he can’t be all that bad.
Labor is probably going to lose Cowan in the west, but that is only one seat lost. They aren’t going to lose seats elsewhere in the country.
I think the Liberals are going to lose Forrest to an independent.
Maybe so, but honestly his childish attack on Rudd not attending Beazley Snr’s funeral was pretty crass – even though Kim Jnr has said he is not offended by it as he understyands that both leaders are in Election mode.
What all the polls show lately is that soft ALP voters are moving back to Howard. How much of the ALP vote is soft will be shown the closer to polling day we get.
An independent who is supportive of AWAs unfortunatley.
Ruawake, the only differences are that Westpoll haven’t published their number of uncommitted/refused (and if your point is that they should have then I don’t disagree), and that Newspoll say “excluded” whereas Westpoll say “allocated”. There may be a subtle operational distinction between the two terms, but I don’t imagine it would amount to much.
PS These soft ALP voters are attracted to their SDA influenced policies but will jump ship very easily. The DLP must love this new look ALP but it still needs to be seen if the True Believers do
David,
You were talking about 3 polls, I assumed you meant, ACN, Galaxy, Morgan when you said “They all show small pro-Liberal swings from 2004″ You could not have been talking about Westpoll.
Lift your game mate.
ESJ – ‘choosing between the collective and the individual’. You seem to live in a Solzhenitsyn world. I’ve no doubt western societies have drifted into a framework of ‘me is all’ and ‘all opinions are equally worthwhile’ (contradictory positions). A position which is simultaneously anti-conservative and anti-social democratic. But that’s purely at the level of rhetoric.
The election might as well be considered about ‘the collective’ (climate change, education, health outcomes) versus the individual. Just as an absurd dichotomy.
Forgetting PD101, there is a simple solution to this thread. WA should secede, as they voted for in the 30s.
If the Australia wide poll did become close would seats like Kingston become close again or would the ALP run YR@W have done enough work to still have Rishworth win easily?
Glen – I hope you can now see the silliness of name calling – it contributes nothing to the debate.
William.
You are correct to a point, but as I pointed out earlier Patterson have a method of adding a 3-3.5% boost to a party because they cannot figure out why their poling was wrong.
Does this arbitary “boost” have any credibilty?
For what it is worth my take on the outcome in Perth is it will not be much different to the rest of the country. West poll is a bought poll by the most rancid rightwing rag in Australia and they got what they paid for. I live in Pearce and I don`t mind these poll results as it will shake up Labor activists and get them more involved in the campaign.Workchoices is Howards gift to Labor it bites here just as hard as the rest of the country.
For a p*sstake on election ads, Dave Hughes is a must read:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22617669-5012863,00.html
In this case of Kalgoorlie, arguably it does. Kalgoorlie has unpollable remote Aboriginal communities that vote Labor en masse – Stirling, Cowan and Hasluck do not.
There is talk that there will be a large Green vote from younger voters in Kingston but they would like to give the Libs their second preference. It will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Will Green voters follow the trend or be more evenly split?
Well, I don’t believe the Westpoll figures for a moment. If taken together with last week’s 52-48 split, there must be some pretty giant swings occurring in Perth and Fremantle!
Swan is likely to repeat its performance in 1998. Kim Wilkie is getting plenty of exposure out there, while I have yet to come across anything from Steve Irons other than a billboard.
Cowan is the interesting one. It is now very much McMansion territory with all the new suburbs in Wanneroo and with Graham Edwards’ retirement could turn blue (which is probably its natural inclination at the moment anyway). Luke Simpkins also seems to be getting all the coverage, with nothing much from Liz Prime.
And Maxine’s dance looked a darn sight better than Howard caught in an apparently uncontrollable throng!
My big thought from reading all of this is: How? How is a year’s worth of polling numbers so endangered or inaccurate or temporary that the Liberals can turn them around and pull off a win? How? It would lead me to think that Kevin Rudd would have to do something so monumentally boneheaded as to throw it away. The difference between the two parties willl fluctuate, that’s how polling works; it throws up a distribution of numbers: a 54, 55.5, 53, 51.5, 59 for the ALP, but it’s just that, statistical variance. That’s why we have rolling trends…
In a year, the mood has been overhwlemingly for change. It’s not Howard’s election to take back any more – if he wanted to do something, waiting until the end of October was the wrong thing. It’s Rudd’s to lose. Is Cowan changing hands? I’d put money on no. Are Hasluck and Stirling going to change hands? I’d put money on yes; How come a five percent swing to the government when teh rest of thw country is swinging away seven percent? What’s the dominant local issue in Cowan that makes this so? And why is it that we don’t know about it already? Is it just that nobody knows how to predict WA? Why is Cowan heading over the other side of the house, when Forrest is going to pieces, and nobody’s talkin’ abour Kalgoorlie? What the hell is going on in WA?
What’s with Howard’s “Mr Speaker” today?
There were two posts about this. Then nothing.
Tell me more.
Ahh, a fellow Pearce person
Pearce is problematic because of the regional areas of the seat like Northam, York & Merriden – staunch National Country, and of course the NAts won’t put up a candidate against Moylan, though the AWB debacle “may” be a godsend for the ALP.
Also Pearce has Gidgegannup with all the hobby farmers etc. Ellenbrook wil go well for the ALP cos of the hard work of the STATE member.
Someone heckled Howard while he was making a speech at a podium and he said Mr Speaker twice and then said you brought up a bad habit of his nothing too massive not as bad as McKew trying to dance or the Kevin 07 dog pooping while Rudd made a speech…all a part of the election campaign really.
As someone who has lived in the electorate of Stirling – I cannot understand why two of these electorates record Nationals votes of 1%. (Stirling and Hasluck in June) What sort of poll is this?
And a 50% primary for the Liberals in Stirling – I don’t like it and I don’t beleive it.
They must think Eoin Cameron is till the local member
Hey Michael Keenan is a good local member underestimate him at your peril i helped out in his campaign in 2004 and he a really down to earth bloke whose got a good record in the community he’ll do a much better job than Tinley…
William
10% of the Wide Bay electorate had no telephone service on Mon, Tues, Wed. This week.
What I am trying to say is that Westpoll look at their results from previous elections then add a “boost” to one party or another. This is reactive to previous elections. So they build in a bias related to who won the last election.
If they do the same with the possible 6% undecided it only adds to the MoE. As such there polls are meaningless.
Patterson do polls for The Western Australian and The Canberra Times.
They have been spectacularly wrong in Eden-Monaro for yonks.
Don’t worry Bill. If Howard wins I’m sure your position as head of the Greens for Howard movement will be safe.
I do agree with you that the results will be evident before the polls close in WA. But here in Australia, the candidates in WA ought to be grateful (imho) for compulsory voting. In American, the west coast states on the mainland (especially California) traditionally whine all the time in the last few hours of their polling there when the east coast news folks declare races before their polls close. Alaska and Hawaii have learned to deal with it. There have been studies in the past that have shown that turnout in states in the Pacific time zone does indeed fall off if the races are declared before their polls close. People figure “why bother, my vote wont’ count now for President” and ignore the fact that they could make a difference in the House, Senate or local issue races. You don’t have that problem with compulsory voting
Delusional to say it’s been anything other than a bad week for Labor. Howard now has the momentum, which isn’t everything, but it is something.
Still, it’s only one bad week.
Rudd wouldn’t want to have a bad debate, though.
Nowhere did I refer to 3 “polls”. My post mentioned three “results”. i.e. Cowan, Stirling and Hasluck. It should have been perfectly clear what I was referring to.
I agree that W.A. will be irrelevant on the night. 4.9% swing in NSW and 3% or less everywhere else gets the ALP across the line and into government. NSW is the one to watch as even large swings in other states wont do it unless NSW swings above 4. (I think from playing with the ABC’s calculator).
David.
You are correct, I made a false assumption. Sorry.
Glen at 179 – Michael Keenan might be a good local member – but do you really think that there are 800 people there who when asked would say that they are going to vote National?
I can’t believe it and this is why I doubt the result!
It’s good to see some of my fellow bloggers coming around on Forrest. I’ve been saying it for months, that Forrest could fall to either Noel Brunning (ind) of Peter Macfarlane (alp).
A quick update on Forrest.
There seems to be momentum towards the greens in Forrest. This could be very helpful to Labor (if their liberal voters) and greens chances in the Senate.
Peter Macfarlane held his campaign launch today. About 80 to 100 people attended. Held a sort of fair in the centre of Bunbury. Unlucky for him that it was the same day as Kim Beazely Sr funeral. Got some state members and Senator Ruth Webber.
Noel Marino still under pressure. Now from local newspapers and radio. She seems to always be unable for comment.
Watch this space.
I’m assuming you mean Noal Marino, unless by some sort of divine intervention she and Noel Brunning have morphed into some sort of uber liberal
Bah – NOLA, Even I stuffed up in my typo correcting yours
Frank Calabrese #189 & 190
Lets hope not to many votes make the same mistake.
Uber liberal. Thats a scary thought.
174… It is called a “senior moment” and somebody some where is keeping count. So far it is still in single digits but come election day who knows? One of the problems of having a “senior” as your front man.
I disagree with this bad week BS. The Liberals did more so they may have won the week but nothing bad happened to Labor.
You’re talking out of your arse again, Glen. You know nothing about WA politics. Brand will not be marginal – Garry Gray is miles in front.
For the aficionados amongst you I can report that Kim Beazley’s funeral was a moving and great tribute to a first-class politician and man. To see Gough, Bob, Bill and PJ next to each other was fantastic. Even better was the sight of Gough resting his hand on Bob’s shoulder as he left the cathedral! The eulogies were about a time that was so different to today, and about men who gave and received respect. Kim Beazley achieved much in life from just 3 years in government. I, for one, salute the man who made it possible for me and thousands of others go to university. I salute a man who had a genuine and sincere desire to improve the lives of our indigenous people. Vale, Kim.
GB,
Labor lost the initiative – that’s the bad thing that happened to them. It’s not BS, it’s just common sense.
On ABC news just heard Howard saying stuff like “12 megabit speeds” in reply to the damaging report on Australian broadband compared with the rest of the world??? For god’s sake, this guy sounded like a dinosaur. Hasn’t got a clue.
AND it was very obvious.
Someone out of his time.
I just saw Howard’s “Mr Speaker” moment on the news. It wasnt done as a joke he did it on instinct, he forgot were he was. It was hillarious.
PJK with respect you obviously dont know much about WA politics because Brand is a marginal seat im afraid you need to brush up on your politics young staffer before you get your knickers in a twist about how great socialism was under Gough pity everything they did was not sustainable lol too bad what a legacy shattered dreams….
Brand of course covers the State seat of Peel, where during the By-Election at the height of the CCC inquiry into Smith’s Beach with daily releases of Bugged Phone Calls etc – the Labor vote actually INCREASED.
And today’s story in The West regarding an African Family’s car in Gosnells being daubed in racist slogans and Nazi Swastikas won’t help those African and Sudanese voters in Stirling one little bit.
” Errr, arrr, rusted-ons and swingers figures from The Daily Telegraph, Mr.Speaker.”
{Has the first week of the campaign prompted you to change your vote?
Yes, I see a clear winner who’s got my vote!
85% (954 votes)
No, I am still undecided and need to see more policy details
14% (166 votes)
Total votes: 1120
This poll started on Saturday, October 20, 2007}
Naturally no claims are made regarding the pseohological rigour applied in gathering the numbers posted so far, but it’s the most straight-forward question and possible answers they’ve conjured up in recent memory.
PJK – hear, hear re Beazley Snr – a good bloke. I remember him from the 70s.
Howard’s senior moment today where he addressed “Mr Speaker” when he was not even in parliament follows his gaffe last week when he got the current interest rate wrong. Last week he also used the wrong Christian name for his candidate in Rudd’s seat.
The gaffes are coming quick and fast, a rate uncharacteristic for him. Will he interesting to see how he goes as the pressure intensifies and Rudd continues playing with his mind. He is not as young as he used to be. And there is more riding on this election for him (Howie) than there is for Rudd (legacy, the future of the Liberal Party, the future of WorkChoices, Bennelong). How will he handle one or two ominous opinion polls or an interest rate rise, for example?
There is a possibility he might drop the ball in a big way.
Labor’s policy machine
classic youtube moment….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1KArfZ6nC1M
Glen is having a Libpest moment…
203 Glen – There you Liberals go again, running an American style negative scare campaign. Australians want to hear about the future, t’s why Labor is committing $3 billion to education rebates to help Australia become the Clever Nation.
glen, you should remember the vic liberals (remember them) when you mention shattered dreams.
Rx, good point.
If this is how H*ward performs out on the hustings after a “good” week with all the alleged momentum, how will he go when he has a bad week?
His long campaign choice may end up backfiring, instead of wearing Rudd down and him making a gaffe, it’s looking more likely H*ward will be the one who gets run down and makes a bigger gaffe.
On a serious note, I actually thought Glen might have been a bit clever digging that ad up, turns out he just went to his browser’s home page (Liberal party site). Very good man. Fantastic. Really adding to the conversation on this site.
The only people who shattered them were those independents Labor didnt win that election the Independents won it for em…
Keats it isnt a scare campaign to tell the truth Labor just copied 91.5% of our policy and stuck on some education stuff on the end of it to look different they didnt have a policy they stole ours because ours was great…where will the ALP be if the Coalition wasnt there writing up their policies…lol.
Stole the policy?? Get real. You don’t have a copyright on numbers. A tax cut’s a tax cut brother.
You need to explain why you’re not willing to invest in education and health. That’s what Australians care about, not whether they get $5 extra a week.
Glen, thnat could also apply to the Lib’s Broadband Policy as well
Actually no because Frank we didnt say we’d steal 2.5b from the Future Fund we aren’t irresponsible fiscal managers like the ALP…
Come on Glen, Howard didn’t know what broadband even was until Labor told him. He thinks it all still works with tincan and string.
well they sure won in 2002 and 2006. What is the joke in Victoria?
That the next liberal Premier of Victoria is currently at Geelong Grammar or something. classic.
Still waiting for your justification on why the $3 billion education taxcut isn’t needed?
If Howard had his way, we’d be stuck with dialup running at 2400 baud.
I never said it wasnt needed im saying that there are other ways to spend money on education/health without doing it through a tax cut…you can have separate policies on health and education that will be better than what Labor is offering…and by the way how crap did Rudd’s laptop look i had one in 1995 it was made in the stone age and yet you bag Howard over broadband get a life!
Wow, how about – I’ll give you a throwoff, top of the head, to your question then change the subject.
Pathetic.
Oh and Glen, your heroand Namesake Glenn Milne is impressed by Rudd this week
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22620554-5005374,00.html
What is it with this obsession about minutiae ?
I thought it was silly when the Liberals attacked KR over not being able to recall the tax rates and I think it is the same with Labor attacking JWH over slips of the tongue and the like.
If you really think this has any impact on an election then you’re just silly.
Ha and yet you bag him as a biased Tory at every opportunity and yet he comes out supporting Krudd go figure?
Of all the photo opps we see of JWH why not one, a single one, of him showing any affinity with the online age? I doubt he has a personal email account that is not managed by a “minder”.
Speaking of the Sudanese in Stirling, here’s a Channel Ten news report on them which I posted on YouTube. I was going to put it up on this site but I decided it wasn’t interesting enough.
The Liberals would steal the eye out of a needle if Labor let them.
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/10/spendometer-week-one.html
I wonder how many people here now are aware Glen Milne was once a staffer for John Button.
William,
Do you know what happened to Paul Filing after he was defeated?
225 Well Costello and Nelson were more Labor oriented until they lost their way, so what?
Think is, Glen, you have absolutely no idea about my age or occupation. It would be an odd statement for a young staffer to say that Kim Beazley made it possible for him or her to go to university. Pretty dumb, really.
Well, let’s see what Anthony Green says on the ABC site…
“though the seat remains with a relatively safe margin on the Labor side of the pendulum.” I bet you wish all your marginals were on 4.7%….
@222
I can’t even comprehend the image of John Howard operating a computer!
227 Steve, because there are shades of grey in most things not necessarily black and white.
Glen, some more youtube for you
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRDDDCvGifg&NR=1
The black and white of the young $weetie is here ESJ.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/4/41/Youngcostello.png
Kit,
THat is perfect – I hope the creator gives this to the ALP to use
“The internet, that’s one of those things you put over the bed to keep mosquitoes out, isn’t it”: ~Howard
Can’t say that I do, ESJ. Your question piqued my interest so I did a search on him in Factiva. In 2006 he ran for mayor of Joondalup and finished third in a very even four-way race. I assume you are aware that he joined One Nation in 2001 in the hope of being their Senate candidate. Beyond that, I learned only that he “started a business”.
kit
I liked that!
Glen – re the tax cuts, Costello, being a smart arse, stated on Wed that Labor should follow the Libs tax cuts. So they did! Yesteday, Costello is on TV whinging about Labor stealing 91.5% of the Libs tax policy. He looked rather silly in front of the media.
Kit see they even copy our youtube ads now how lame can Labor get!
Umm, it’s an INDIVDUAL who has done the response – if it was an offical ALP ad there would be an authorisation tag at the end which this one doesn’t.
Use that thing between your ears before you post.
238 Thought you’d be used to it by now Glen. It will only happen till November the 24th and after that I have been assured no more copying.
It is even more sad that some Labor staffer has spent hours copying our youtube videos can’t Labor come up with anything original!
“I agree that W.A. will be irrelevant on the night. 4.9% swing in NSW and 3% or less everywhere else gets the ALP across the line and into government. NSW is the one to watch as even large swings in other states wont do it unless NSW swings above 4. (I think from playing with the ABC’s calculator)”.
Interesting theory Imacca (185) What is the current swing in NSW?
I think swinging voters changes sides based on engagement with political issues. The rusted on voter, the vast majority, never changes sides because they have chosen it the way they chose their football side, they grew into it sub-conciously.Thus how bad their team has been is irrelevant to them – they are always rationalising their choice when the news or image is bad. And this explains the level of support the LNP have.
If we had ALL people choosing sides based on a real understanding of the issues then we would get results like 80/20, 70/30. Instead it’s always around 50/50, like tossing a coin, except those few percentage of swingers, thinkers.
An ominous occurrence this year for Howard is the anecdotal evidence that some rusted on Liberals (never voted Labor) are deciding to change sides. The ‘it is time for a change’ feeling is coming into it. I think it would be hard to change this feeling when both sides will cancel out each other’s noise. Or when Rudd presents himself particularly well.
The remaining battle is not only on the technical qualities of policies, that is for the swingers like me and many others here, it is all about presenting the neccessary images to keep those from the ‘rusted ons’.
Kina I am a swinger too!
244 What, golf on Fridays at the country club?
If the Labor tax cut had been an extra few billion would Costello have claimed they stole 105% of his policy?
Swing to the ALP in NSW at the moment is 9.6% from the last Newspoll Quarterly Series.
That’s in the quarter BEFORE the election was called. The swing now is probably negligible.
Well imacca if you believe Galaxy (and assuming swings are uniform) then this swing has now come down to 5.4%. Another 1.5% and the election is over for Labor.
We’ve still got swingers like ESJ who might want to get with the strength and back a winner for once, Nostrils.
imacca (247) Thanks for that.
Is the 9.6% figure based on this week’s polls?
Also, does anyone know what the current swing is in Victoria?
Weel, there was that Sun Herald/Taverner poll of 979 people in Sydney and Melbourne showing an ALP lead of 59/41.
You know, some people like EStJ, Glen, Nostro, and the like are going to be a little upset if the last Galaxy turns out ot be an outlier.
But, the only really relevant reply to them is;
ALP primary vote Sampled after the Election called, 48%. Har Har!!
imacca you have already been identified as a concern troll.
Sorry imacca, just noticed you have already answered my question (251).
I think I should have asked instead how much you think this week’s correction in the polls would have affected the 9.6% figure.
There’s no reason to believe the polls won’t improve for Labor over the campaign, even if only fractionally. The only other campaign of this length was in 1984, when the Liberal Opposition really turned things around to give the Labor Government a scare.
I’m not saying this is what’s going to happen, just to complete unpredictability of an election campaign. I find it hard to imagine that after 11 years in Opposition the Labor Party is willing to continue campaigning the way it is.
LTEP (255) I seem to recall the 2004 election campaign went for six weeks also.
Juts on the current polls in WA: they are, for the most part, noticably low. Either something is afoot in the West, or the polling methods are flawed. Both could be the case.
In the last four elections, the WA vote was about 98% of the national 2PP for Labour. Right now, with the current polling from Newspoll in September, plus these Westpolls, showing the ALP 2PP well down, the WA vote is closer to 90% of the national poll average.
Rudd may not need to go over there too much as long as NSW, Vic and QLD keep performing strongly as they have been, but he’s probably going to want to keep an eye on things. After all, there are 15 (out of 151) seats over there, and at least 6 of them are within range of either of either party.
My analysis shows a likely gain of 3, maybe 5 seats: Hasluck, Stirling and Canning, and maybe Curtin or Kalgoorlie.
Sorry, that should be “just”…
to 251 Darn;
No mate, that was from the last Newspoll Quarterly.
But, the ALP (Forces of Light and Goodness, henceforth FoLG) got 37.4% of the primary in NSW on Oct 9 2004.
If FoLG get 44% of the primary this year that would be a swing of 6.6%.
H’mmmm, Some of the Forces of Decrepit Deceit and Despair, henceforth FoDDD), may find themselves put to rout at that what??
A 9.6% swing would mean a FoLG primary vote of 47%. Now on the latest ACN poll, they were UP from 47 to 48 nationally.
I have a few jitters, but I’m not worried too much at the moment.
Scotty, are you serious about Curtin a possible ALP gain?? I thought the Rabbit/Headlights One was pretty safe there??
Julie Bishop would seem pretty safe, unless the ’small l’ Liberals really are leaving the Coalition.
The seat does have a lot of students in it (and my sister!) but I wouldn’t imagine it to be at any risk at all.
Much as i would love to see it, i cant believe that Curtin would go. If the Forces of Decrepit Deceit and Despair ever lose Curtin then it could only mean that they are a left as merely a rump in parliament.
If that happened, then their most senior member of parliament may well be Wilson Tuckey!!! No, laughing to hard at that!!!
What’s behind Howard’s lacklustre polling this year.
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/2007/10/chance-to-break-rules.html
Rudd can actually win this campaign and increase his vote. He needs to look back to when he was miles ahead and understand why. He was visionary, talking about the future, preparing for the future and no negative stuff. He was not trying to tell the people why Howard was no good but why he was a better choice. New Leadership maybe.
There are only two areas where the negative stuff will work for Labor at the moment.
The negative stuff won’t work too well for the LNP either as each time they go negative it reinforces in people’s minds their mean spirited and cynical nature. Costello thought he was being clever the other day, but that sort of thing simply goes against him. Denigrating the opposition doesn’t work. The problem for them is that most people are so familiar with them and can read them like a book.
I hindsight Labor should have muddied the air with something as soon as the Govt released its tax policy. Not that anybody cared too much about the tax – but to detract from the image they were making for themselves.
Last week will be a distant memory by Wednesday if not earlier. Rudd has a very good story to tell and it will be told. He has started the story with the tax policy. Time to move on.
Labor’s primary vote did not move (ignoring Morgan – doesn’t everyone). The Libs gained nothing from those supporting Labor even after their big blockbuster tax policy. Not a good omen for the next 5 weeks for them.
I love this quote from Shaun Carney from the Age
‘But there are five weeks to go, which means for most voters that they’ve got four weeks to go before they need to take any notice of the campaign.’
It will be interesting to see what tactics Rudd applies from here on. We assume, given the tactics during the year, that it will be something well thought out.
Something a bit smarter than Costello holding a press conference to release an anti-union ad campaign. Nice way to prove Rudd’s point Peter.
Gary Bruce, the interesting thing about the Morgan was that the Coalition primary vote did not move. So in one we had Labor’s going up and another the Coalition’s not moving. We’ve got this Westpoll. They all tell different stories.
Also a thing that the Morgan phone poll indicated was the idea of ‘win expectations’ may be playing into the vote. The drop in 2PP in that vote was similar to the drop in ‘think will win’. Win expectations may also factor into general approval ratings, since people may have answered he’s not doing his job properly since they fluffed the beginning of their campaign.
As always, we can never know the full story behind any poll.
Interesting scenario if the state and marginal seat polls by PMR for the westpoll are both correct, with a statewide swing to the ALP of at least 4 percent, but for swings to Liberal in 3 of the marginals.
A net gain of Cowan for the Libs could well be offset by a surprise loss somewhere else. Labor leaked polling showing Gray doubling the margin in Brand. Forrest could end up a four way go with a stack of money going on the independent candidate. There have been murmers that Canning will experience a significant swing to Labor, but I haven’t seen any polling leaked as to how close it is.
It is so hard to tell what would be happening in Kalgoorlie other than by elimination of other seats from the broader state polling. Labor will win votes over broadband here in the Kimberley. Unfortunately for them it is Law time for many Aboriginal people in the Pilbara, so they will miss out on some votes there. Applying the national swing to Kalgoorlie is as good a method as any for anyone guessing where it might be five weeks out.
The Greens vote in Kalgoorlie should be a bit higher this time as well.
There has been a lot of concern expressed in this thread about these polls in WA. The key to conducting a poll is to ensure that yo get sufficient representation in your target demographics to be able to accurately weight the results.
In many respects this is dependent on the resources that the commissioning entity is prepared to put into th poll. The interesting statistic that is never provided in these reports is the number of calls that are terminated because the target did not fit the demographic sought. I suspect the Westpoll surveys have fairly low terminations, which would help explain the inconsistency etween successive polls.
Recently I was polled (not in WA) where I was asked for the male in the house closest to 18. Unfortunately we need to go back to Gough’s “It’s Tome” election victory for that to me. I suggested to the caller the person who satisfied that description wouldn’t spend his time answering questions, so they went through them with me. I wonder how valid that survey was.
ALP candidate for Maranoa has stood down
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22622110-5005961,00.html
85 Lab/65 Lib – I’m not going to say anything more… except.. Sean is ok! Ida Ciao!
too drunk!
On the question of the tactics so far it is question why the Liberals have so strongly focussed on union domination of the ALP. Is it because the Crosby/Textor research suggests its a strong issue or could it relate o another factor.
Recently Possum posted an analysis of the purpose behind the “climate clever” campaign. I suspect there is a similar byproduct purpose behind the union official ads. Perhaps it is a positioning to limit the effect of union sponsored anti-workchoices advertising. It is setting up in advance a negative perception of union officials, without directly attacking them. To some extent labor complaints about negative advertising reinforce that.
When the campaign about Workchoice kicks in the objective will be to make people think that the union officials are seeking to preserve their positions and their base rather than having the focus on the effect on working indviduals, which has been so powerful.
If this is the case then it suggests that the Liberals are very concerned about the effect of workchoices and th voting intentions of the electorate.
No wonder Howard was upset with the Chaser.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22622112-5005361,00.html
I think it is most appropriate that John Howard funds the Don Bradman Hall of Fame – Don Bradman’s batting average is identical to John Howard’s IQ…
This is quite amusing considering Bradman opposed World Series Cricket.
Despite what many people have been saying, we have been getting lots of Labor TV ads here in Leichardt (Cairns). Mainly they have been the ones where Kevin shows off the place where he grew up. In contrast the Libs have only shown a few of the L plate ads in the first couple of days of the campaign. If this sort of imbalance keeps up, it will only emphasize the lack of money that the LNP have. Speaking of the NP in LNP, the Nationals haven’t run an ad yet despite the candidate being a wealthy businessman. He must have decided it was too much of a bad investment.
Great, now I gotta go find out some bloody batsmans batting (says that 3 times really fast) average.
99.94 Mate
Yep. In my calculations, I have it as the fourth most likely seat to fall if the swing is big enough. Mind you, I’m using pure statistics, not taking into account local issues or weighting for a given candidate.
Nothin wrong with Bradman’s batting average, 99.94 is outstanding by any test
Curtin falling okay this will be filed under wishful thinking or nasal gazing.
Julie Bishop will hold on Primaries, she is one frontbencher I would vote for.
# 279 mate Says: October 21st, 2007 at 12:48 am
Isn’t this one part of the citizenship test? 99.94. Out for a duck in his final innings.
In order to maximise your campaign dollar the earl;y weeks are fort on the ground in the electorate. There is no real again in the first week of an campiagne the momentum build up with most undecided swinging voters deciding which way they will vote in the last two weeks of then campaign. you let the government come out with what you expect them to say.. “We are doing well. look at the record on the board, why risk the unknown”.. “blah blah blah”.. by the end of the second week the government is looking tied,. The opposition comes out with the rebuttal and by the time the government responds the message is out there and the government is on the back foot. Then comes the knockout blow in the last weeks. Problem with Latham was he never really came out fighting and had nothing left in the last week where the match was decided.
If the opposition come out too strong then they become the target not the government. A long haul distance runner does not use up all their energy in the first Km, They wait for the pace to be set by their competition then they keep pace and when they tire then pump out the extra energy to strive forward.
” #282
Curtin falling okay this will be filed under wishful thinking or nasal gazing.”
‘nasal gazing’? Is that what NostrilDamus does?
Curtin …. despite it’s name this seat is not likely to vote labor ever
maybe a good independent candidate in the right circumstances could
win…… Nedlands & Peppermint Grove are like Sydney’s Double Bay
Melbcity – right on the money. It’s called strategy.
To complain that seats are not following the state trend is like complaining that states are not following the national trend.
In elections, each party tries to paint itself and its opponents in certain light.
The coalition is painting Rudd as L plate, “Me to” and Union controlled.
Rudd failed his first big decision, he has been saying for months he had a tax plan that he was going to release in the election. Instead of going with whatever that plan was, he went “me to”……reinforcing the Coalition’s positioning of him.
He can’t really counter the L plate
He has failed to counter the union control
His adds say he has a plan without details
I suspect the Coalition will have another big announcement next week eg health. If he responds with ‘me too” he is gone. Comedians are already joking about it and there is a risk that it becomes how people view him.
Also, Labor needs to characterise the Coalition in a certain light.
Recent polls tend to support the idea of Labor “soft vote” but time will tell.
55 Oakeshott
I think there’s probably a reasonable explanation. The Oz no doubt intended to run with Steven Kaye’s report, but somehow it got mixed up with the SMH one.
Steven, I think they need you soon back at Lib H/Q to re-interpret their internal polling. Morale and all that.
Still, nice to have you here for a little while.
Hahah! Curtin is not going red, the Libs could put an old world monkey on the ballot and still get over the line there.
Another drop of Chardonnay?
BMW,
All this nasal gazing and you will really get up my nose.
[we aren’t irresponsible fiscal managers like the ALP…] Glen
LOL! The Mersey Hospital Pork showed us all about Liberal “responsible fiscal management”. Though you’re right, it’s not like ALP.
Well lets just take a look at labor with truth not spin , ok gillard comes out today in the telegraph (but not published by the abc ontv or channel 10/ 7 ,of course they are in cahoots ) and puts on the sad story of how she was conned by her union boyfriend to setting up accounts to put stoled funds in which by the way by her own admission ,recieved by threatening the people concerned with industrial action ,well if you believe she didnt know what he was up to when she was that close to him you would believe anything ,next we have the wa union guy coming out and saying gillard and rudd lied and made a deal for 400,000 ,well he should know he is one of their cronnies ,then we have the tapes in the vic police scandal that has also implicated bracks ,and a hitman ,and the union boss who tells just how they really run things .well after reading that and there is more to come ,the picture is very clear about unions ,gillard ,and spin doctor rudd ! add to that rudd voted against all the policies that he now agrees with ,which wont matter anyway as the union has already made the deals on policies according to them ,so what a joke this is to run a goverment ,and if your still a little unsure about labor ability lookat nsw ,is there a bigger mess ? i dont think so !and gillard to run industrial relations is an even bigger joke going on her own past performance .