Prior to the leaders debate at the 2004 election, I went to the trouble of unearthing poll results on the previous debates going back to 1984. The Hawke versus Peacock debate of that year was the first, as it was previously a well established item of conventional wisdom that debates had little to offer an incumbent. However, Bob Hawke could hardly refuse in 1984 as Labor had run television ads during the 1983 campaign mocking Malcolm Fraser for his refusal to play ball. The record since makes clear that Fraser’s reticence had been well founded, as incumbents have only managed two wins from nine starts. In fewer than half of the nine cases did the winner of a debate go on to win the election.
1984, November 26: Peacock 50, Hawke 37 (Spectrum poll).
1987: Once bitten, Bob Hawke chickens out, leaving John Howard’s supposed debating shortcomings unexposed for another decade.
1990, February 25: Hawke 46, Peacock 36 (Newspoll).
1993, February 14: Hewson 45, Keating 31 (Newspoll).
1993, March 7: Keating 44, Hewson 38 (Newspoll).
1996, February 11: Howard 50, Keating 36 (Newspoll).
1996, February 25: Howard 54, Keating 36 (Newspoll).
1998, September 13: No poll located, but reports of the worm suggest Beazley narrowly defeated Howard.
2001, October 14: Beazley 55, Howard 35 (Newspoll).
2004, September 13: Two-thirds of Nine’s studio audience gave it to Latham over Howard.
It should be noted that Channel Nine clearly botched the job of assembling an audience of undecided voters at the 2004 debate, as the behaviour of the worm made clear. Particular notice was taken of a green-haired young gentleman in the audience who looked like nobody’s idea of a person who was considering a vote for Howard. Nonetheless, the overwhelming weight of published opinion, including my own, was that Latham had indeed put in the more confident performance.
400 Comments
I didn’t remember that they released a poll of audience members.. that explains why Howard wants audience to be an even-split partisan affair. No dismal poll headline for Monday.
If US examples are anything to go by, they will be handpicked in favour of the incumbent.
Megan, I believe each side gets 200 tickets for the hall. Then channel nine will have a feed and its own audience elsewhere.
Anybody know what Rudd is actually like as a debater?
The only time I’ve really seen him going off the cuff was during that last day in parliament. He seemed pretty good - handled what was thrown and was biting in return. But then there’ll probably be no passion today - more of safe old Kev. I can’t imagine he’d be worse that Howard.
ALP candidate for Maranoa disendorsed…
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22619793-952,00.html
I am surprised that Howard wants a 90 minute debate. He really only has a couple of issues to attack Rudd on.
On the other hand Rudd has lots to attack Howard on.
So the longer the debate, the longer Howard has to be seen as having no “plan”.
Costello on insiders this morning may provide some hints, I am sure he would have been in on the strategy meetings - his ego will not let him keep anything new a secret.
Single debate seen as ‘a joke’… Liberals to play Bingo…
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,%2022620041-953,00.html
Another Queenslander wins a poll… a sign of the times?
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22619489-3102,00.html
Labor should post their own “bingo” card.
Union Bosses
Full employment
Economic Miracle
Team
Labor States
Wall to wall Labor.
Mr Speaker
the Liberal bingo thing seems desperate to me, anything to distract from the real proceedings, has anyone noticed Milne has seemed a bit more balanced { for him anyway} in his last couple of articles? i’ll be watching ch9, i like the worm, Howard has made the mistake of making this debate far too stage managed.
ruawake - Lady Macbeth probably has something for him as well.
“Mrs Howard, long considered the power behind the throne, will be one of a select handful of advisers coaching the Prime Minister for the debate.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/howards-hope-by-his-side/2007/10/21/1192301101679.html
This one would surely be useful: ‘Things without all remedy
Should be without regard: what’s done is done.’ (III, ii)
When howard talks about preparing for the debate I have a mental picture of the training montage from the Rocky films.
I can see him at the end of the debate:
‘Jaaaaneeeetttteee! Jaaaaaneeetttteeee!’
Will the Equine Flu come up.
It is a good example of the failure of the libs consultation process, lack of planning and inability to handle a crisis, also the hundred of millions in compo may affect the budget.
“THOUSANDS of horse industry workers will be included in a planned class action suing the Federal Government for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses because of the horse flu outbreak”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/workers-sue-over-horse-flu/2007/10/20/1192301100160.html
I have long thought that the most apt line regarding Mr Howad’s intent is “…look like the innocent flower,But be the serpent under’t.” (1.5.75)
Brilliant article from Julia in her hometown paper, the Age:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/bjulia-gillardb/2007/10/20/1192301102913.html
It’s a pity others elsewhere in the country may not get to read it if they only read the paper version.
”
Absurdly, according to the Liberal Party anyone who isn’t in government can’t be in government because they lack the experience of being in government. In other words, whatever you do, don’t change the government!
If the rest of the world lived by these rules then no one would ever sing on stage who hadn’t already sung on stage, no one would ever join a board of directors who hadn’t already been a director and no one would ever play in the AFL who hadn’t already played AFL football.
It’s a recipe for stagnation rather than striving for a better future.
”
Nice Fargo. And I know it doesn’t really fit, but I’d like to cast Downer as one of the weird sisters. Or should it be Crosby, Textor and Loughnane? Or maybe the Australian people who are having an ongoing joke with them.
Does anyone know when we might start to see some stuff from Yougov?
What a lucky little Rodent he is!
In a poorly guarded “trade secret”, El Rodente is being primed by no less than Hyacinth Herself for tonight’s now nationally televised debate between Himself and The Ruddster.
Hyacinth has long relished her role as confidante, coach, enabler, handler and general ratsbody, although Hyacinth does not cook and cannot remember the last occasion on which she actually washed bottles. It was definitely well before the last time she broke bread with Tanya and Peter at Kirribilli Castle.
Mercifully, “Mr. Speaker” regrets that he will not be attending this evening’s eagerly waited exchange of national perceptions.
“The Photon Group has canned its plans to enter into a joint venture with YouGov and will instead acquire Australian research business Auspoll. Research News speaks to the key players about what the deal means for political polls in Australia.”
http://www.mrsa.com.au/print.cfm?i=2672&e=142
@S#4
I believe Rudd was a champion debater and I look forward to him wiping the floor with Howard’s eyebrows.
I really like the idea of the Bingo card. I hope it gets wide publicity.
It serves, in neon lights, to remind us of how out of touch the Libs are. This is like school children secretly drawing pictures of their teacher and giggling. All the while the public are desperately wanting policy substance for now and the world’s shaky future.
The voters will indeed mark their cards on this childish diversion.
They’ll be shaking their heads and thinking - grow up!
This has been a really good start to the day for Labor.
Indeed I vote for Shakespearean themes and underlying context in the debate:
I can see it now, PM to retire before the election, wife Janette to stand for Bennelong, defeat Maxine Mckew and take her rightfull place as PM
Oh look Costello found a “hole” (and a fairly contrived one at that) in the ALP tax plan. How surprising.
He really is a sad creature.
So an a-hole found a hole.
Big deal.
In tonight’s debate I’m sure Rudd will challenge Howard to one or more debates.
I suggest Rudd demand a debate solely on Nuclear power for Australia.
To avoid the debate would expose Howard as being unwilling to discuss what he intends to inflict on the nation if re-elected. To accept, would bring the issue on to centre stage (where it certainly should be).
Gosh, Costello’s performance on Insiders is dreadful - especially on the Union Official question.
I see the Sunday Terror is rehashing their story re Gillard’s partner. Obviously noone noticed last week. If at first you don’t succeed ….
Exactly fiztig: Member of a union = Union official, according to $weety
Costello’s attitude is weird. He’s acting like the Libs have either already won or already lost the election - like he has no real point being in the interview at all. And boy oh boy does he loathe Howard.
Costello was awefull - imagine that as PM?
Just watched Costello on Insiders - he was pathetic. Cassidy gave him quite a hard time but Costello was very unconvincing. He looked rattled and not the image of a confident government about to win an election.
So Costello found a hole.
This guy displays the appeal of the sweat on grannie’s back.
Sorry about the vision.
So this could be the next unelected PM of Australia, how disgusting!
Scaper, please, I’m eating my breakfast.
Alex - the senior ministers are all giving the impression of a government confident they are going to lose the election. Very sullen and petulant.
Costello’s attitude makes me wonder if he is supremely irritated at Howard at the moment - is Howard about to come out with a multi-billion dollar healthcare program? Is Costello seeing a renewal of the Howard-as-a-drunken-sailor spending anything and everything in order to get re-elected? And surely he must know that he will never by PM even if the Libs win? That might explain his turd-infected attitude this morning.
Well I’m sure the debate will be interesting, and I’ll definitely be looking to see how John Howard performs.
Maybe it’s just me, but I was more than slightly concerned when I read that that the man running our country has ‘moments’ where he doesn’t know where he is. On Saturday at the Granny Smith festival, when the noise level rose and there were interjections from the crowd during his speech, he suddenly thought he was in Parliament and called out “Mr Speaker”.
Good morning
Meaningless newspaper polls: Age readers like Rudd’s tax plan
http://www.theage.com.au/polls/national/results2.html
Age readers won’t win the election for Labor, but they might win the Melbourne marginals
In the story about Shane Guley being (quite rightly) dropped as a candidate, Glenn Milne writes “The claims have been backed by an ad blitz pointing out that 70 per cent of Opposition frontbenchers have union backgrounds.”
No Glenn, the ad blitz alleges that 70 per cent of Opposition frontbenchers have union backgrounds. You’re supposed to check whether such claims are true before repeating them. In this case the the claim is not true.
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/backgrounds.shtml
i’m just watching Costello, gawd i’ve never seen such a bad performance from any minister and he still has the smirk, the thought of this man leading the country is horrendous!
Good coverage of Queensland marginals on Sunday Program.
I hope Rudd ups the ethanol. Those top end Queensland seats would be very handy. Barnaby didn’t seem confident of a government win.
Abbot and Costello have no idea what it costs to run a hospital let alone a health system.
They initally costed the Mersey takeover at $45 million a year, now budget papers reveal the cost to run Mersey will be $64 million a year.
The underestimation of Mersey costs by 40% explains the current state of Australia’s health system, if the libs cannot get the costings right on one hospital which they hold up as their shining new way forward in hospitals and health how can they be expected to get the funding right for health and hospitals in Australia.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007news/treasury-fine-print-reveals-cost-blowouts/2007/10/16/1192300769271.html
Gary Bruce, yes. I’d be surprised if Rudd doesn’t do something with ethanol. It looks like a subject the Liberal Party doesn’t want to touch so Rudd should be able to get in first and convincingly. It could also emphasise how little power the National Party have as a Coalition partner.
This Sunday show is the best electorate program I’ve seen in years..
Labor’s tax plan is even with the Coalition’s among Sky News voters; this is more revealing than the Age poll, as Sky News polls have a very pro-Coalition bias. Looks like Rudd’s tax plan has succeeded well in the community; this could explain why Costello was looking so grim if he has access to internal polling that shows Labor’s lead increasing.
Do the job and not go looking for praise according to this writer.
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/2007/10/why-bribe-rich-stop-demanding-praise.html
So Tip says he will live in his house in Melbourne if he becomes Prime Minister.
Hey, he’s done a lot of work in the garden and my guess he works on his demeanor there.
I’m sure it is fully fertilised…..
has anyone any links to the Sunday Show about the Queensland seats, i watch The Insiders– it’s a bugga when they both clash.
Lord D @ 47,
In one of those polls online about the tax plans [there was a poll on almost every news website ;-)], the break down in my elecotorate of Werriwa had 4 different answers. Voting Labor no change, Voting Liberal no change, More likely to vote Labor, More likely to vote Liberal. The More likely to vote Labor was 8% ahead of the More likely to vote Liberal which tells me at least in my neighborhood that Rudd’s plan turned on more of the Liberal voters rather than the other way around.
The comments by the journo’s on Insiders about blog sites indicates a high probability that many of them are lurkers or contributor’s to this site. If Andrew Bolt’s looks at the Andrew Landeryou blog there is a good chance that he also looks here as well. OK, who here is Bolty, Farr or Fran??
I thought that would be obvious zedder!
48 Steve,
From the same blogger, earlier on this week
[thanks for this site, I will bookmark this and read regularly]
“Thursday, October 18, 2007
Bush Backs Rudd?
“New Leadership” Refreshes Democracies
Kevin Rudd promises “new leadership”. John Howard doesn’t like the sound of that. Hell, why would he? The only thing new about Howard is the glowing fake tan and his recent trip to the botox clinic.
We don’t need new leadership, says Howard, we need the “right leadership”.
But, interestingly, US President Bush is in the Kevin Rudd camp on the need for democratic nations to regularly refresh their leadership. This from only a few days ago :
“…it’s time for new blood…there’s nothing better for a democracy than to renew itself by elections and new leadership.”
It’ll be interesting to see if anyone in the Labor Party dares to quote President Bush as a way of endorsing Rudd’s “new leadership” mantra.”
Cry me a river of crocodile tears Gerry!
http://stoush.net/alex-white/669/second-class-workers
Ok, zedders, you got me. I’m Dennis Shanahan, and none of you know what you’re talking about.
I’m Kevin and I here to help… lol
Costello is a bad campaigner, but notice he has moved from SILENCE a few months ago into the lime light recently.
Obviously it has to do with his agreement with Howard that he will be handed over the Prime Ministership after the election!
I’m listening to Costello on Insiders (thanks to Radio National), he sounds deranged and isn’t making much sense.
News Radio rather…
re insiders
the ponces talking about blogs,are the same ones who said the blogocracy was irrelevant and had no role to play
sheep one and all
ps Zedder glen would fit the bill for all three!
Costello was awful on the insiders. The more I see of the guy the more he alarms me. The reaction when Barry pinned him on the inaccuracies of the union scare campaign was the usual smirking intimidation and bluster. Somebody has surely told him that this stuff might go down well with the press gallery but the punters hate it. He’s probably concentrating so hard on eliminating the smirk that he forgets all the other obnoxious stuff. A true electoral disaster area for the libs.
I’d love to see a Captain Smirk vs Swan debate: I think Swanny would surprise a lot of pundits and wipe the floor with Smirky.
I am Michele Grattan (I would have thought that was obvious)
64… hhahahahaha
I think the commentary on Costello here has been pretty accurate. Here’s a man with many obvious abilities and advantages, yet has a hideously unlikeable persona. But the strange thing is that he can be likeable. He just refuses to do it often.
Not sure if anyone else has already mentioned this, but apparently the worm will not appear during the debate - only afterwards in replays.
That’s what I heard last night anyway.
Don’t know HH. Swan seems afflicted with the mantra driven lines being pushed by the Labor party. I noticed on the insiders they’re now calling it ‘bumper sticker’ politics. They need to be careful or the libs could get some traction - They need to show a bit of passion and actually directly counter some of the crap being put out by the libs.
Actually I thought, Barry Cassidy ran rings around Costello on the tax cuts package despite Costello’s overwhelming confidence on that issue. However, on all the other issues I think he performed well.
Off topic, but full results have finally been published for the 2006 US mid-term elections. You can find them here:
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2006/federalelections2006.shtml
Using the summary tables of the full HoR vote in the US, and comparing that to the 2004 vote gives
Democrats: 52.5%, up 5.9%
Republicans: 44.3%, down 4.9%.
2PP type swing to Dems of 5.4%.
If it can be done in the US, why not here?
Vee, if you thought he performed well on the union issue then we must have been watching a different program.
Re Mr Costello on insiders
I agree he didn’t seem to be very comfortable ….. He seemed out of
sorts… Barrie Cassidy is not a difficult interviewer
maybe He won’t stay in politics if the libs lose
Another 32 Crownies and I’m sure I am Glen Milne.
And if I washed it down with a side of beef I am Piers Wankerman.
I’m starting to have an identity crisis and it’s time for a BEX and a lie down.
And for anyone interested in alternative viewing tonight try this:
WELCOME TO THE PEOPLE’S FORUM
The Greens People’s Forum will be broadcast direct from the Parliament House Theatrette from 6.45 pm Eastern Standard Time this Sunday the 21st of October.
Greens Leader Bob Brown will give a short presentation of Greens’ policies and then respond to questions from a panel of journalists, the audience and via the internet.
Unlike Mr Howard’s debate, everyone is welcome to attend the Greens’ public forum. Bookings can be made by calling Senator Brown’s office on (02) 6277 3170 or by sending an email to forum07bookings@hotmail.com - Please include your name and a contact phone number.
Your Questions
You can submit questions for the Greens at http://www.greensblog.org in The People’s Forum thread ( http://greensblog.org/2007/10/19/the-peoples-forum-come-along-or-ask-questions-online/ ).
Broadcasts
Broadcast streams will be available from 6.45 pm Eastern Standard Time at http://www.greenaction.org.au
Many of the voters interviewed in the queensland marginals on Ch 9’s Sunday program today seemed to be echoing two main points:
- Howard’s time is up (and don’t want Costello as PM)
- workchoices is bad
IMO, to win this election Labor has got to do two simple things
1. Put out some good policies on health, education and the environment (and the sooner the better… though no doubt they are very wary of being trumped by the government after releasing a policy)
2. Plenty of ads to reinforce the message about workchoices, and that the PM is yesterday’s man
That’s it. It’s a very simple argument that the electorate already believes. Labor simply has to reinforce it.
Once again, I’m really surprised we haven’t seen much ALP/union advertising yet.
Dunno who will “win” the debate tonight, but one thing will be blindingly obvious - a politician in the twilight of his career, the other in his prime.
I agree. Rudd’s slogans have been effective, but he now needs to back them up. I’m sure he’s got the policies there to do so, but will he be willing to put them out there before the government puts out theirs? It’s a pretty fine balancing act. If he goes first he might be trumped. But I think he should take the risk and be seen to lead with the ALP strengths. He needs to put the “bumper sticker” and “me too” and “no policy detail” accusations to bed before the libs have a field day. If his policies are good then the government won’t be able to trump them without saying “me too”, which would look really bad in areas of health and education where there is so much scope to do things differently.
Just saw a union anti WC ad a few minutes ago on Ch 7. This one was a lady from Coffs Harbour telling how she was dudded because she lost overtime and penalty rates in exchange for an extra 2c an hour. The date was shown (2006) but the government could easily counter this by talking about the disadvantage test that now applies.
They probably will debate but hardly anyone will watch it. Does anyone remember the last debate of the Treasurer and his Shadow in previous elections? Maybe Rudd should insist on debating Costello as Costello is the Emperor in waiting. Costello is a very good performer in Parliament but he is terrible in one on one interviews. I don’t understand why the Libs haven’t given him a make over for his interview style. The way he talks over the top of interviewers and ignores awkward questions is never a good look.
Julia Gillard has denied being a communist:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22622914-5001021,00.html
She is actually only a fabian socialist LOL!
Costello on Insiders was truly woeful. It’s completely apparent he can’t control the smirk, like Dr. Strangelove couldn’t control his arm.
As soon as Cassidy tossed him a couple of curly ones he went the biffo. Started leaning forward menacingly, smirking, barging in over the interviewer and (my pet hate) that “talking to the kindergarten kids” tone he puts on as if his audience consists solely of 5 year olds. He actually started arguing with Cassidy, like they were in some pub. A few beers mixed in and it looked like it might have gotten violent. Complete intimidation and a complete vindication of that 75% of voters who would rather eat a sh*t sandwich than have Costello awarded the Prim Ministership on a plate.
The man is a buffoon, and a bully. Like all bullies he has no guts, only bluster and bluff. He didn’t have the guts to stand up for himself in 1995 against Howard (who was, at the time, a nobody, Costello’s junior in the party hierarchy), and has not had the bottle to go for anything not handed to him as if of right ever since.
This includes the economy, which was fixed up by Labor - Hawke and Keating, with full co-operation of the union movement which Costello so despises - and which has since boomed. Costello was handed the Australian economy as a going concern and has since attempted to take all the credit for its success.
There is a distinction between being a tough guy with a loud voice who can get all his urgers, mates, a tame Speaker and the rest of the hangers on in Parliament plus in the MSM to laugh uproariously at his schoolbioy humour, calling him a genius, Parliament’s most “brilliant” performer and so on, and a serious, mature leader who does not threaten and who does not bully, ruling by common assent rather than fear mixed with sycophancy.
Costello’s fuse is short. This is what the interview on Insiders showed this morning. Two minutes into the interview and he was menacing Cassidy, curling his lip into the hated smirk and generally behaving as if the the world owed him a living… which is convenient, because he does believe it and doesn’t it show?
Costello may be a reasonably proficient 2IC, trusted not to drop the ball, but as foreman material he is sadly lacking in courage, self-confidence, ability to think for himself and most importantly to think for others. In the case of Peter Costello no truer (and more appropriately named) principle applies than the “Peter Principle”. He has risen to his level of competence. Any further and his incompetence will show to the point of embarrassment. Even Howard knows this, and keeping Cotello out of the leadership is one of the few things Howard has done that I agree with wholeheartedly.
The next thing for the voters to do is to drive a stake through the heart of Costello’s ambitions once and for all by voting the buggers out of office come November 24. Given today’s performance if I was Labor I would dust off the “A Vote For Howard is a Vote For Costello” banners and fly them high, and proudly. It’s not only true this time, it’s vital that the message be shouted loud and often from the rooftops.
Huzzah! They’re back.
Frankly it doesn’t matter what the government say on the issue. They can’t win on it. The very fact that they had to introduce a fairness test is an admission they were wrong, and there’s a strong suspicion that things still aren’t right.
Sean @ 62: “Somebody has surely told him that this stuff might go down well with the press gallery but the punters hate it.”
I think you’re onto something crucial here, Sean. The press gallery goes into raptures when Costello goes into “witty” attack mode in Parliament. They see it as a great positive. But to outsiders, he just looks like a schoolyard bully. Nasty, aggressive, snide, cruel and not funny at all. Same when he’s talking about economics: supercilious and arrogant, and frankly, droningly dull.
Now that he’s trying to win over the electorate, rather than the press gallery, he needs to convey a very different Peter Costello, but I just don’t think he’s capable of it. He’s not good at presenting himself as other than he is. The more the public sees of him, now through the prism of a potential PM, the less it’s going to work for the Coalition.
Which is nice.
ummm folks now we’re into confessions i’m blonde, i’m beautiful, i’m Janet Albrechsen and i think this forum is a communistic socialist waste of space!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’ve seen the Coff’s Harbour union ad twice this morning. “Howard used to be my hero…” Good stuff.
Bushfire! Great stuff. Yes, that “talking to the kindergarten kids” tone he adopts has always made me puke.
I haven’t seen the ad, but the “I used to vote for Howard” line is particularly telling. There are a lot of people who voted Howard in the past who are no longer so enthralled with him. Ads like that will reinforce existing perceptions and really hit the mark.
Bushfire Bill, you and I were having the same thoughts at the same time. So we must be right!
From
http://theorstrahyun.blogspot.com/2007/10/why-bribe-rich-stop-demanding-praise.html
linked to by steve@48:
Howard shouldn’t be on the ropes going into the Great Debate tonight, but he clearly is. Wife Janette will spend most of Sunday reminding him that she isn’t ready to move out of Kirribilli yet, so he can’t f**k it up.
Expect to see Howard sweating a bit. Hopefully someone has reminded him that This Is It. His last days, if he doesn’t pull off a miracle. Will the pressure be too much? Rudd will probably look and act like he has been slowly drip-fed, all day, a carefully balanced mix of valium and ecstasy.
Beautiful.
Oh, and I am Laura Tingle’s lapdog. Woof woof, pant pant, hooooooooowwwwll!
Er, judy, don’t think so. I think you’re probably human.
I thought Costello’s perfomance this morning was reasonable this morning…if he was acting as the attack dog, but as a future Prime Minister it was atrocious.
The panels reponse to the hole was telling - how does anyone keep up with him when he goes into that much detail? And the reason he has to go into that much detail is that his credibility is on the wane - it’s all boy-who-cried-wolf stuff coming back to bite.
Can anyone refute or back up what he was saying about the alleged ALP hole?
The Queensland electorate stuff was interesting - particularly Brough’s electorate - despite the government being really on the nose, they’re going to vote for it because of Brough. I think it’s great that he can have that effect, but the (and I’m going to try and be careful here) lack of what that means to those people in the big picture I found really quite curious.
Maybe it’s just my bias, but I observed a sense of guilt in some of those who were nominating their vote to be Liberal, while there was definitely more emotion behind those who were voting Labour - little evidence of the soft Labour vote.
Re the commercials - never fear, the blitz will occur in the last 2 weeks of the campaign and should have the punters nicely primed with horror images of serfchoices when they walk into the ballet box.
Bushfire Bill - that was a brilliant summation of Costello.
I also saw Costello on Insiders, and I kept waiting for Barry C to say - err Peter you realise we’re not in parliament now? His line of “Oops he’s done it again” was quite possibly the most stupid thing I’ve ever heard spoken in an interview. He spoke as if it was Question Time.
Good thing though - he let the ALP know what the next line of attack will be - “a $600 hole”
Bushfire Bill - that was a brilliant summation of Costello.
Hear hear.
I’m Piers Akerman and Janet Albrechtsons love child….
I agree that Labor needs to get going with its ads and some more policy, but I think their game plan is to hold off on most of the ads until the last week of the campaign when we will be bombarded by both sides.
For heaven sake an election is not won in week 6 or 5. Strategy my friends.
Costello has opened a big can of worms, will he release ALL the tax thresholds now?
What are the real costs of his tax cuts? I smell a Costello Black Hole
Ha Rudd is going to get sucker punched in this debate his copy of the Liberal Tax Policy shows people earning 37000 paying 600 dollars a year more in tax LOL what a blunder by Labor Howard will get stuck into Rudd for his failed policy tonight and Rudd will look like a fool.
Good one Bushfire.
Costello had no answer to taking money from families who may be struggling to provide their children with modern technology and therefore fall behind through no fault of their own AND GIVING IT TO THE RICH.
Barry Cassidy was outstanding. Costello’s lower lip was quivering. He would make the weakest PM in Australia’s history. LOL.
re 94
so who had to leave the room after my announcement ?
Update on the Portlandbet and Centrebet (odds seat by seat).
Portlandbet: ALP: 76
Lib/Nat: 72
Ind 2
Centrebet: ALP:75
Lib/Nat:72
Ind: 2
Centrebet isn’t listing Forrest (WA) for some reason.
Blacklight. Well, there goes the gene pool in that neck of the woods. Take cheer, poor sod: all mutants will be equal under the Sun of Kevin.
Forrest has a conservative independant candidate who is the fly in the ointment
Glen is definately Piers Ackerman. Poorly written, spelling mistakes, constantly banging on about irrelevancies and oh so sure that he is some kind of intellectual messiah for the Liberal Party.
The question I would have asked Costello on Insiders was - ‘why did Costello refuse to release details of bracket creep when requested under FOI by the GG?”. This is the same issue that he was prattling on about today when criticising Labor’s tax policy.
I am actually Sharran Burrow. I blog whilst on overseas trips.
I am Peter Reith and i do love workchoices and my Telstra phone card!
63
Howard Hater Says:
October 21st, 2007 at 11:19 am
I’d love to see a Captain Smirk vs Swan debate: I think Swanny would surprise a lot of pundits and wipe the floor with Smirky.
I watched the QLD Swan on channel Eddy today under reasonably soft questions from Laurie Oakes.
I thought even Laurie was pleasantly surprised with the way Swan presented himself and answered his questions without appearing to be just trotting out Labor Party script writers pet themes ‘fresh ideas-new leadership-no Howard plan for the future.
I would like to see a debate between Swand Costello: after that performance by Swan on Sunday and Costello’s lamentable effort on Insiders, I think Swan would hold his own and make Costello look pathetic.
You see Glen, that’s why Rudd is the smartest politcion in the country. He will not be wedged. You blokes have to resort to utter crap to try and criticise it.
ESJ,
For someone who has been dead for 15 years, you blog vey well.
Thank you, GG, its amazing what a regular intake of vitamins can do for one’s health.
I love youse all.
ANY appearance by Costello would inevitably bring on the Dr. Strangelove smirk. The man can’t help himself. He MUST have been told a thousand times to keep it under control, but it’s clear that tdespite the warnings, he can’t.
He is one of Labor’s greatest assets. Let’s see more of Costello, I say.
I am the love child of John Howard and Kevin Rudd: my name is Christopher Pyne: I love youse all.
Rudd should go JHW tonight on this union thing - get him to admit that there is nothing wrong with unions (as he has already had to do due to Hockey) and then make a farce of the argument that 70% is too much - too much? why you say they’re a good thing. How many shold there be? 50%? 40% So you advocate a quota system? Should we then have 50% women on the front bench? How about a quota of lawyers?
I really think Rudd has to be a bit aggressive on this. If JWH mentions Combet or Shorten, Rudd should ask him about James Hardie and Beaconsfield etc.
This arguement about union control is bottom feeder IQ stuff. Yes he can bring out his line about having teachers, rockstars etc, but don’t just say that, he should also say “ok we have men and women who once worked for a union. So what? They are not union representatives, they will be members elected by the Australian public answerable to the Australian public and to say that because your former job involved defending the rights of ordinary working Australians somehow disqualifies you from being a Minster is offensive”.
So long as he keeps his cool and doesn’t get shrill, I think he needs to get the blood flowing in what he says. If he just issues the standard Rudd speak of “out the back door” “economic conservative” I’m going to spit!!!
He needs to surprise Howard (and the public).
On topic, I don’t think the debate will be terribly relevant unless one of them does something incredibly stupid. I figure it won’t get the highest viewer figures so the only parts of importance will be what’s played on the recaps in the news.
Rudd’s good at getting soundbites in the news which is what I think has helped him all year. Tease him all you want for his slogans, I think they’re very effective on the people they’re targetted at. The trick is coming up with enough new slogans every now and then to make yourself seem fresh.
I honestly can’t imagine what they’ll talk about in 90 minutes. One side will exhaust cliches on ‘plans for the future’ within 10 minutes and the other will exhaust all the cliches on union bosses within 5 minutes.
ESJ,
I thought it might have been the preservative effect of all that Brandy you consumed.
Then again I thought Rudd should have attacked Howard over the Mersey side hospital, so what do I know!
Retracts statements re LTEP and trolling. I apologise.
See, even us lefties can admit when we are wrong about somethin; why can’t JWH do that, it would win him back alittle more credibility before he goes bush.
If you saw Tony Burke debate Andrew Robb on Sky yesterday you’d see clearly how to handle the union issue. It was magnificent.
Rudd should announce that Liberal Party major donor Richard Pratt’s $36 million fine will be passed on to subsidizing tuck shop milk for school kids.
Milk of course comes in CARDBOARD CARTONS no doubt manufactured under licence from a Pratt-controlled company.
Maybe the last half hour will be worth watching when they both run out of scripted material and junk slogans to toss at each other.
Grog, email that off to ‘em. I totally agree.
Bluebottle you should retract statements made about right wing posters being trolls we dont call left wingers trolls it is offensive and belittles our opinions and it is disrespectful to say the least….
Who will be taping the broadcast i will tape ABC because the feeble worm wont be there we shouldnt have a worm to decide who won or who they like because i dont care who you get you cannot get completely uncommitted people to a debate everybody is bias so that is why i am avoiding channel eddy….
GB - what did Tony Burke say?
The Liberals are the masters when it comes to chanting slogans. Remember “Cut and run”. They were all saying it loud and often. I’m sure you can list more.
Should be a very interesting debate tonight - we’ll see if the Piping Shrike is correct about Mr. Howard being the one most likely to explode in this campaign.
My feeling is that Howard will have to go out hard - try to dominate the proceeding _totally_, he’ll be butting in and talking over as much as he can - it’ll be interesting to see how much freedom is given to Howard. My guess is he’ll be given a lot of freedom - which is why he asked for some period where direct discussion and argument will be allowed. He’ll be aiming to show Mr. Rudd’s alleged weakness to the Australian people.
Mr. Rudd should be prepared for the belligerant Howard. Hopefully, he’ll have a couple of not so cool, calm and collected lines prepared for when Howard tries to dominate.
We’ll also get to see if ‘Order 66′ is still operating amongst the journalists of Australia. By god, even Fran Kelly is obeying!
I cant wait for Rudd to get to a high pitched shrill about how evil Howard is and how good he is it will be funny watching him go red in the face…oh and Malcolm Farr brought up on Insiders the ear wax thing with Rudd priceless!
Sean, well you might’ve been. Sure Barry had him at the start of the Union issue but Costello had him by the finish of it. And also the finish of the entire interview.
On the issue of detail - Barry had him. On the issue of public perception - Costello had it.
It was obvious from the costello interview that additional to having one of the most welfare dependant private school sectors in the world, the taxpayer is now going to be picking up a big slab of the school fees as well through tax subsidies. Fees that have already been growing at a massive rate and will now no doubt get more obscene as they feed off the parents taxsubsidy. Ah, Howards australia
Glen let me just say that I have never accused anyone of being a troll except LTEP as a possible one and that was yesterday.
What I have said about you specifically is that you are hypocritical to the extent that you frequently fall back on insulting and offensive remarks about Kevin Rudd [using polite language of course] which are often unsubstantiated and appear to be coming from the Liberal Party Handbook.
Can we BOTH keep on topic and leave the offensive commentary aside ?
Your views on things political have much more bite when you avoid your tendency to bile and spittle when the chips are down. Toughen up mate !!
Any chance Howard may try to surprise by using one of the answers to announce a new policy - eg ratify Kyoto? (which I suspect he will do before the election - couched in the terms of “oh well we are meeting the commitments anyway, and Malcolm has finally won me over that symbolically it is the rightt hing to do…”)
Glen, better earwax than blood on your hands. I will never forgive Howard for the Iraq war.
What about afghanistan Megan?
Sean you’re right, I’m betting the Libs will announce subsidy/rebate of private school fees.
Andy @ 39 mentioned Howard’s “slip” at the apple festival when it became a bit rowdy. “Mr Speaker …”
I suspect this might prove to be a telling point in the campaign. Was it an attempt at a joke? Or was it something elese? I don’t know - I wasn’t there. Any more of this sort of thing will lead to questions on Howard’s ability to cope.
Glen,
Taping the debate? Glen, what a sad life you have.
By the way “i” should be typed as “I”. And these ,,,,,,,, are called commas.
That just about sums up the intelligence of Malcolm Farr, Glen.
Hopinf for a Howard win tonite. Every time he’s lost from government he’s won the election.
Forgive the descent to personal observations … SNIP. No - PB
Paul whenever you resort to personal attacks you show how sad and pathetic you really are…i pity the fool.
Tony explained his background, which included law. He also mentioned how he helped someone through a legal problem as part of his union duties. He went on to say that according to the government it’s ok for him to charge someone high fees after consulting with them in a plush office but not if working for them for free within a union.
I thought Mike Bailey handled it well too. He went through the list of shadow cabinet members, explaining how some used to practise law, were teachers etc and asked the question does having a union membership make you any less of a person?
Glen you must have more to say that is politically relevant than a referral to ear wax…that is the bile and spittle rubbish that you revert to too often. Try again with logical, rational reasons why you think Rudd is not going to make a good PM or why he ought to lose this debate.
Mr. Costello has got a bad case of the crazies… worst interview since Lateline earlier in the year. His problem is he gets confused… he’s in an interview and he thinks he’s in Parliament. He hasn’t had a broad enough political education. He will never be PM… the only question is: what can he do to stop Mr. Howard becoming PM again and will he have the balls to do it?
C/T should do some new focus groups:
“Would you vote for Rudd if you knew he ate his own ear wax”
Meanwhile the rest of Australia will be concerning themselves with less trivial matters…
Um, why did you need to resort to a personal attack?
We all know Howard is going to lose the debate he always does but then he usually goes on to win the election…id be worried if he won the debate lol! It is a long format 90mins so im not sure who this will favour but granted Rudd has never done a debate like this Howard has 5 times so this should help him…you’d think so anyway.
It will probably descend into a slanging match so i have no clue who will win but Rudd will try hard to because he needs the momentum he lost in week 1.
Glen,
I know you really don’t like using commas because the word comma sounds too much like communist to your ear, but they are part of good punctuation. Try to use them and ignore the fact that the comma stroke goes to the left instead of the right. You can’t expect people to consider you intelligent if you can’t even obey the simplest rules of writing.
Anyway it’s a beautiful day in Melbourne. I’m going outside. You should get off the computer and do the same.
I wish Barry this morning had responded to Costello’s comments about Howard being the one who will make the decision to leave by asking “So you want the Prime Ministership handed to you without even a party vote let alone a vote by the Australian public?”
http://www.liberal.org.au/documents/RuddsDebateBingo.pdf
“A must-have for tonight’s election debate, the official Rudd’s Debate Bingo card has 38 of Kevin Rudd’s favourite clichés and focus group tested answers.
Viewers can download the bingo card and mark off each attempt by Kevin Rudd to avoid providing answers with substance or detail.”
Malcolm Farr is just a reflection of the standard set by the paper he works for. Childish and ugly.
James J - don’t forget to take your lunch to school tomorrow.
Order 66? Wot that? A D notice?
When a party resorts to these tactics you know they are in deep do do.
GG,
and a good supply of cigars too!
Gary,
I agree, it shows the depth and maturity of the Liberal Party strategy. I would have thought most people tuning in are in interested in the substance not these mindless distractions.
But, I might be wrong.
nah, nothing like that! just a pop-cultural reference to Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith. Order 66 was given to the cloned storm troopers who immediatedly turned upon their Jedi allies and killed them all (except Yoda).
Just referring it to the MSM journalists behaviour of this last week where they have completely abandoned any pretense at neutrality in order to savege the ALP.
That is Gold James J this will make the debate far more amusing lol!
ESJ,
Smoking is bad for your health. That is why you are dead.
From ninemsn:
More here:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=307667
I’m taking a drink whenever Howard says “union boss”. I’m expecting to be pissed within the first 9 minutes.
Rudd spoke at a NSW Right dinner a few years ago. 2004 I think it was. At the time I thought he was clearly establishing his credentials for leader at a future date. His performance was witty, suited the audience and he cam across as very credible.
This guys been a diplomat and speaks I forget how many languages. He can think on his feat = he can debate.
Now there’s a thought. Why stop at challenging Howard to 3 debates why not a fourth to be held in Mandarin?
I knew Glen would love that Bingo idea. We were all correct, he is a kid. Don’t be on the computer too long Glenny.
Ill take a drink anytime Rudd says
“when it comes to”
“new leadership”
“can i just say”
“working families”
“My challenge to the Prime Minister is this”
Ill be drunk within the first 2 mins of Rudd’s opening address crazy fun but enough from me…
And a nice sample of $weets performance this morning is here.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=306850
Rudd should go out there and absolutely enjoy himself. I think debates are fantastic because it’s a fair dinkum level playing field.
You see Glen, when it’s a level playing field, propaganda and no substance (which sums up the liberal party) can be exposed. That’s why Beazley performed so well because at the time the propaganda was at it’s worst.
It’s interesting to note that many on here feel that Rudd should directly counter the claims of union dominance, and ‘me tooism’. I also agree, and wish Rudd would just directly counter these arguments factually as opposed to wheeling out his key messages (i.e. fresh leadership, buck stops with me, scare campaign etc). It’s good he is staying on message, but it seems odd that this isn’t being addressed.
However it’s probably frustrating to the vast majority of Labor supporters on here because, as individuals interested in politics, it’s all they’ve been hearing the last couple of months. The other 99% of Australians probably haven’t even tuned in and realised these are key messages.
Just rewatching ‘insiders’ from this morning… half asleep when it was on TV.
How is it that 3 professional journalists can sit around and agree that it’s time for Mr. Rudd to have some policies to present to the people? As if the education/laptop fund was the only thing he’s announced all year?! The MSM were demanding policy all year, they got policy… was this good enough? Nooo! The whole point was for Labor _not_ to release policy. But because Labor did… they’ll just have to pretend it never happened. Labor - policy free zone, eh? MSM?!
And Bolt… concluding - with no interjection from ‘Token Lefty Fran’ - that while Labor has to release policy… the Liberal’s aren’t under the same pressure… why? cause everyone pretty much knows what the Liberal’s are about… And these ppl are paid… in money… peanuts are too good for em!
Wentworth mail.
http://susoz.typepad.com/personal_political/2007/10/malcolms-enviro.html
John Rocket @ 156:
Actually, I’ve benn surprised at how easy the Pundits have been on Rudd so far. Kelly and Farr, Milne and Hartcher seem to have given Rudd some credit for the tax-cut answer policy.
In fact I think it’s Lefties who’ve been harder on Rudd than the press (myself included in that).
Maybe they’re just keeping their powder dry. Maybe they’re so wrapped up in the minutae of political move and counter-move, but I’m not sure Rudd should be so disappointed with his press this week. It could have been a lot worse.
Re: the bingo card. I agree with all the previous sentiments about how this displays the Libs level of arrogance about their supposed “right-to-govern”. Can’t seeing it having any impact on Nov 24. But tonight Liberal party supporters will be scoring it thinking this constitutes some sort of major victory.
They might as well try to stack the odds at the Daily Telegraph poll or obsessively play the whack-a-polly game (Okay I couldn’t stop at one go either).
If the MSM pick up on it. They’ll just use it to show that KRudd has his own way of talking which will just get the average voter more comfortable with the prospect of him as the next PM.
Well done Libs.
John R, Andrew Bolt made a good comment that the level of sophistication on blogs such as this is very high. Hopefully in the not too distant future we will see the end of those fat old lazy journo hacks.
LOL, was hilarious watching Costello make an absolute dill of himself this morning, Labor should make a cartoon ad about the clown.
well Swan’s not wearing the Liberal propaganda.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22622916-5005962,00.html
When Howard refuses further debates, perhaps Rudd should suggest Costello, as the anointed one, turns up for the next debate. It won’t happen but a nice wedge, watching them both explain why not.
Gavan O’Connor gets a savaging by Jason Koutsoukis:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/more-than-he-can-chew/2007/10/20/1192301099005.html
‘O’Connor’s transformation from a man of principle and integrity to one deluded by self-interest and greed is a salutary lesson in how politics can corrupt. Make no mistake, O’Connor destroyed himself last Thursday, and everything he once stood for.’
Costello on Insiders today was quite probably his worst media performance ever. Based on that, if you were the Libs, you wouldn’t want him doing anymore of these extended interviews.
I wonder if Costello bumbling reponse to the the Insider question this morning about where he would live if he was Prime Minister demonstrates that he has not thought about it?
Does that mean he does not expect to have to consider the question?
For someone who is meant to have a burning ambition for the top job it appears odd that he has not given it much thought.
Also concur with the negative assessments of Costello’s performance this morning - it was like he needed to remember the parliamentary debating tactics that protect and project him are not useful in a one on one studio chat.
LOL… just checking out streams from this morning’s Insiders… does anyone think Eric Loebbecke (in the Talking Pictures segment) looks like a thin version of Joe Hockey?
See http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2007/s2065240.htm
Centre does that mean you are Andrew Bolt?
I dont see much coming from tonights debate either way. Newspoll will be the next “big thing”, if newspoll is 53-47 or less expect panic in Labor’s ranks.
Labor’s negative ad response is interesting rather than rebutting the ads (which they cant since Labcest is clearly true) they are metaphorically encouraging people to “switch off” the negative ads. Will be interesting if this works.
I think this is a dangerous approach given the level of resources that has been put into the WorkChoices fear campaign by the ACTU. It is interesting that Labor hasnt made the positive case for unions, I doubt very much KR will do that tonight. His WorkChoices lite approach is designed to try and “triangulate” himself in the words of that disgraced strategist from the States.
The bullying and condescending style of Costello completely overshadows his likeable qualities & I guess that is why the Libs have fluffed it by not giving Costello sufficient time to protect this side of his persona.
The colour of Keating, which is a welcome change from the drabness of Howard, without the wit.
Dare I say it - Costello was very Lathamesque.
Latham-lite perhaps?
Sounds like Costello is also showing the stress revealed by Howard yesterday at the Granny Smith Festival. Not only did Howard address the Mayor of Ryde as Mr Speaker, when someone in the crowd interjected, but he also addressed the Deputy Premier of NSW as Sir John Watkins. LOL.
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen.
It is essential when approaching a project of this type to pay attention to small detail: artefacts, stratigraphy, workings of the language of the body parts. Small detail always makes later analysis and dating a task that should be clear. So, ciao! Be happy on this dig - but please remember to bag and tag all finds.
All you Howard Haters are truly going to hang yourselves on the morning after the election. Last night I was shown Internal Liberal Party Polling and the bottom line is that Labor will not win this election. In a Nutshell:
1. Libs & Nats doing well in ALL Marginal Qld Seats. NONE to fall;
2. Libs pick up 2 in WA and hold the rest;
3. Nats pick up new Qld seat of Flynn;
4. Nats pick up seat in NSW of retiring Independant;
5. Libs & Nats hold ALL VIC seats;
6. Libs hold NT seat;
7. Libs hold Braddon in Tas;
8. Libs lose Bass in Tas;
9. Libs lose a few seats in Western Sydney;
10. Libs lose all Marginals in SA;
11. PM & Turnbull easily hold seats;
I am serious. Government returned easily. Apparently they are giving up in SA and not bothering spending money in SA because is definately lost cause. Are leaving it to Dolly & Co to do whatever they can.
Other Points of Interest:
1. Merger issue hurting Labor in Qld;
2. Howard Popular in Qld;
3. Howard & AWA’s popular in WA and Labor will do worse under Rudd then Mark “Mad Dog” Latham,4
4. South Australian’s think he is a Rodent;
Howard Haters you must understand that the Rodent, my cute little Splinter is the MASTER, he has more money that Kerry Packer and knows the politics of each electorate. Like Braddon etc, he will buy the votes he needs to stay in Power. Don’t you worry about that.
Oh and by the way the reason the polls are bad is the swing to Labor is Safe Labor & Liberal Seats but not Marginals. Strange but true. Battlers vote with their Hip Pockets. Doctors Wives and the Latte Belt like you morons are a different breed and you don’t matter.
The papers, journos and Insiders have very little effect on elections. Only the rusted ons from both sides tkae much notice of them If you’re not interested in politics you avoided it like the plague.
Just putting aside Mr. Bolt’s desire for us all to go easy on the Liberals… what policies do the liberals have?
Okay,
1. they’ve got a tax policy…
2. Something about a takeover of hospitals, which isn’t a takeover, it’s about creating community boards, in all communities… actually, no… only in some communities - which ones? ah! ‘Decent sized ones’… which won’t increase bureaucracy, which will be cheaper except for the 40% cost blowout (in only one hospital), which is only being trialed in Tasmania for now… except it’s policy for the entire country… except that we reserve the right to change at anytime (25th Nov - should they win).
3. Something about nuclear plants, which won’t be approved by government but will be approved by a community (but this bit might only be an aim… not a policy.)
4. Something about a new preamble and kissing and making up with the Aboriginal people (what is with Mr. Howard and the preamble???)
Yeah, liberals are a policy free zone… and no, we’ll never get the MSM talking about that though.
Giovanni — well said.
Bloody hell what did I put in that tea? “take”, “avoid” oh and full stop after “them”.
Snoop Dog. I think that stuff was dated 2004.
Thanks for that. After this phrase was uttered, I knew that I had to disregard the rest of the post.
Snoop Dog - started drinking early today?
On the subject of ‘internal party polling’
Who does that? Is it other arms of the companies doing the media polls?
Is it typically more or less accurate than media polls?
What I know about polling came from ‘The West Wing’
KT - I was suspicious after “Howard Haters”.
Given we have the debate tonight, would someone please find and post the old Frontline episode that had a great debate with a balanced audience.
I think it is Series 2, Episode 7.
Should put us all in the mood.
#184 - I wonder what would happen if there is an outbreak of bushfires in key marginals in NSW/VIC/TAS and the follwing climate change alarm? Could that be K-RUD’s Tampa?
There’s a long time to go, yet.
Oh, and I thought there might be another policy announcement prior to the debate from Labor (the childcare one)
Gives a numeric advantage in policy announcements to Labor, and they’ll get some free publicity for it during the debate.
I think it has has another advantage - it could mean they are painting the Libs as obsessed with the economy - to the detriment of everything else that matters (childcare, education, etc)
Wow Snoop Dog, I am going to give Con Kafataris a call and get on.
“no QLD seats to fall”… that’s pretty funny.
That $1.5billion childcare rebate will play well in the right seats. It was important for the ALP to come out first with that.
I think Labor should now go first on health and education too. They have led the debate all year and it has worked very well for them. They need to be seen as leading the way… they’ve looked shaky the past couple of weeks because they haven’t done much of that.
Uh S, the economy is *the* thing that matters. Without it we wouldn’t be able to fund all the things that are important to you, such as the Arts or new native title schemes, for example.
Certainly if there are any areas of policy that Labor thinks the Libs will want to do too (eg. childcare rebate) they should get in first.
Possum, what do you think of internal party polling as oppossed to ACN & Newspoll?
Centre, you can be assured if such positive polling for the Libs existed it would have been leaked to media outlets, not this blog.
Well Snoop Dog, if you are right, you can claim bragging rights for the next century. However, some of the claims you make really do defy common sense.
1. Its very, very hard to see the coalition holding onto its 2 most marginal seats in queensland. Kevin Rudd is from Queensland, and I’d bet my cotton socks that will put at least a few % on Labor’s primary.
2. The recent newspoll showed Labor ahead in Braddon, 51-49. This seat will probably be the closest in Tasmania, but it would be hard to see Labor not winning it.
3. South Australians are clearly the smartest people in Australia. But then, I’m biased
4. Regardless of how amazingly “popular” AWA’s might be in WA, it is still hard to see Labor doing worse than in 2004. In my view, the worst case scenario for the ALP in WA is the status quo.
I think I pretty much agree with Adam’s predictions; the ALP will win around 10 seats at a canter. After that it becomes more difficult, but whilst the ALP primary vote is above approx 42% (which it is well above right now), its hard to see the ALP losing.
Um A-C, Do you want to get fair dinkum?
All the major financial institutions on the ASX expect the Australian economy to continue to grow strongly for the next decade REGARDLESS OF WHO IS IN GOVERNMENT!!!
Let’s stop stuffing around.
South Australian’s smartest eh? Not judging by the road behaviour and nor by your beer… no one smart would ever touch West End!
You’ve obviously never tried Coopers then John Rocket !
Centre - it depends on the type of internal polling.Some is better than others, as you could imagine.
The Crosby Textor Oztrack stuff is a good example of good polling, and the ALP has its own equivalent of that.
But so saying, the parties will often poll a single seat, or an area with a relatively small sample size, and then use focus group overlay to tease out some of the qualitative stuff.
Some of that small sample polling can be a bit dubious, and even larger sample seat by seat polling can be dubious if there are local factors at play that can skew your sample in some way (and even adjusting for it by stratification weights can be difficult if there really are local factors at play that cause a particular voting demographic to be under or over represented in the phone polling).
Made out of purest Murry mud… and you didn’t address the driving problems… “Keep Left Unless Overtaking” what is so hard about this idea?
Snoop Dog - started drinking early today?
Nah, still carrying on from last night, and sleep deprivation is also starting to kick in.
Snoop Dog, are you sure you’re not Snoopy, who was expelled by William after trying to make this blog into a personal insult zone.
And I suppose the attitude towards concerned voters in Liberal electorates…
is indicative of how the Liberal Party intends to govern for all Australia?
Newspoll has had Labor at 58-42 in marginals, so that sounds pretty damn good to me.
Snoop Dog = troll
Even the kitchen cabinet aren’t seeing internal Lib polling so why would you?
Thanks Snoop Dog. Normally when “internal polling” is shown to the type of person who goes off and posts it on the internet the next day, they’re goosing a stooge. You’re obviously much smarter than that though.
Possum in your honest opinion, where do you think Labor is now in terms of how many seats they can win and what degree of confidence would you place on that assessment???
Hey leave Snoop alone you guys he’s no a troll he’s telling it how it is ya’ll plus he doesnt seem like a Labor voter and we need more Tories on this blog…i agree with most of Snoops post!
I can vouch for Snoop Dog.
I was also sent that internal polling last night and although as I remember things were 50-50 in moreton and bonner rather than with us in front, everything else is as I saw it.
To ape Snoop Dog:
I just received Labor internal polling. Here’s what it says.
1. Qld, Labor on 55% 2PP, and set to make 12 seat gains
2. NSW, Labor on 60% 2PP, and will make 15 gains, incl. Bennelong and Wentworth
3. Vic, Labor on 60% 2PP and will make 10 gains
4. SA, Labor on 57% 2PP and will make 5 gains
5. WA, Labor picking up 3 seats
6. Tas, Labor gaining both marginals
7. NT, Labor getting Solomon
Total Labor gains 44, Labor win 104 seats, and have a 58 seat MAJORITY.
Yes, that’s close to my information, Lord D.
The only difference is in the addition. I make it a gain of 48, a win of 104 and a 66 seat majority
Sorry, that’s a win of 108
Centre - I think the ALP is in the same place they’ve been for 9 months.
If Kev is caught kanoodling with a posse of naked nuns, he might lost by a seat or two, but short of that type of spectacular event, I still think he’s looking at winning between 20 and 40 seats.How many will be determined in the last 2 weeks of the campaign because there will be a lot of ex-safish Coalition seats that will be in the 49-51 range on polling day.
My best guess now is still what it was back on the 26th September:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=590&cp=4#comment-42885
“the only maths you’ll need this year is 60+29=89″
Savva, good day Ashley - It is good to know in my heart that someone twigs pure scientific methodology for political archaeology. The bones always have many stories for those who care to watch. Remember: history tells us many things, but the answer always lies in the dirt.
Brian has been leaving his research at the pub again.
Snoop Dog #184
I think you’ve been sniffing the base of too many trees!
The state to watch is Victoria. Every Liberal metropolitan seat in Melbourne is “in play”. The Liberals are even worried about Casey and Goldstein.
It is no coincidence that Rudd has visited Goldstein 3 times and was a guest at Little Athletics yesterday in the heart of Casey. He’s been there a couple of times in the past few weeks. Andrew Landeryou also made mention of Casey on his blog.
Strange and bewildering times.
Why was Howard in Longman last week?
Strangely enough, someone sent me an email last night that showed Kevin kanoodling with some naked nuns. I think his approval rating will go through the roof.
Thanks Possum, same answer I gave to Snoop Dog. I am giving Con Kafataris a call to get on.
I thought Howard was keeping the internal polling to himself and Brian Loughane. Not even Tip has been privy to the numbers.
Geez, it’s a bit desperate when the Libs have to throw-up cooked alleged private polling figures to try and convince people that they’re back in the race.
The published mainstream polls have had the Coalition headed for a massacre all year, yet now, within a week of the election being called and with both parties essentially matching each other’s Tax cut bribery, the Lib cheer squad would have us believe that the demonstrable 10-month dyanmic has been turned on it’s head.
What a load of cobblers.
You lot haven’t had a bounce of any kind all year and the only bounce you’re gonna get is when you’re bounced out of office on 24th November.
There are unconfirmed reports that at Old Parliament House this evening this evening, Dolly Downer will don blazer, fishnets, high heels, wig, slap and lippy to accompany, on French horn, the Kranski Sisters for a medley of gallery-settlin’ ditties before the main event.
Bushfire Bill, deft vivisection of the m.o. and physiognomy of The Smirk. And yes, Citizen Rupert’s stable have given Ruddster a surprisingly good shake after his recent “Me Too, But Better” tax policy announcements. Even Shill Shanahan managed a momentary lapse from his usual hysteria, but it’s probably just a temporary thing.
All this focus on Janette Macbeth is interesting - the most prominent she’s ever been… reaction to Therese Rein or… has the Liberal Party been reduced to its bare essentials? is Team Rodent just down to him and his wife… and a few trusted confidantes? Mr. Howard has regressed back to the 80s model: no-one trusts him and he trusts no-one.
(Sorry, if I offended any South Australian’s on the blog (and there seems to be a lot of you…) but… I’ve driven down that Main North Road too many times… and you start thinking really bad thoughts about a place based on that road… esp. around Elizabeth :))
Snoop Dogg and Puff Daddy, huh? I wonder when 50 Cent and Eminem are planning on confirming that they, too, received internal Liberal polling in their inbox.
John Rocket, no offence taken, but you’ll be thanking us Croweaters on November 24 !
Ahh, my son is a croweater… but sshh- don’t tell anyone eles - every family has skeletons… this is ours!
Just read the transcript of Oakes/Swan and Oakes goes on the attack a lot and I’m not sure Swan fended him off on those issues. If he did, only barely.
A couple of months ago, I said in the blogs that all Rudd had to do to win this election was to promise to introduce more generous child care payments and to reduce HECS. The first wins over the ‘working families’ ; the second wins over the Gen Ys and Xs and their boomer parents. The fix is in on the first.
Remember the squeeze that Latham put on Howard during the handshake for the debate in 2004.
Only trouble was that he followed it up with a near headbut at the infamous ‘handshake’ near the end of the campaign.
Alex
I agree, but there is also pensioners, if Rudd can do something for them (disability and aged) then he has the trifecta.
ruawake - yes, I agree. I’ll be one in the not so distant future!
Disability pensioners could be an Achilles heel for Rudd. His wife’s company has recently become involved in return to work programs in the UK that are controversial and driven by the insurance companies. He has to handle this group of pensioners very carefully.
Andrew Leigh on both tax packages.
http://andrewleigh.com/?p=1658
Just Me - I don’t think Rudd’s wife’s business actitivties in the UK would resonate here. The main issue there is not with the particpants of assistance schemes, but with public servants who are afraid of losing their jobs as work is moved to the private sector. The poms have had some success with their ‘back to work’ programs, unlike here where the financial disincentives have dissuaded many.
Just Me, I am one. (DSP).
The UK thing is irrelevant.
Howard has alienated all DSPs with his welfare to slavery policies. Tax cuts mean nothing, rebates mean nothing. All it needs is an acknowledgement and a feel good gesture and it could make the difference in a few tight seats.
I do not think it possible that the swings can be on in the safe labor
and non labor seats and not the marginals
some seats are marginal because they are a mix of safe labor and
anti labor areas eg Swan in WA
I don’t think you can get crazy results like
liberals gain Cowan and lose Oconnor
some marginal seats will defy the swing others will swing more
Slightly OT - is there a Newspoll in tomorrow’s GG?
There is a Newspoll this week - could be out tomorrow or tues.
Also a little OT. Are there any rules in tonights debate which forbids either leader announcing a new policy initiative?
226 [Why was Howard in Longman last week?]
Doing a farewell lap with Janette before the Nuclear reactor at Bribie island comes to bite him on the bum.
I was rung up for political polling by Newspoll yesterday lunchtime. Due to a “computer glitch” however, as soon as I said I’d participate, the young guy told me he wouldn’t be able to proceed with the interview. Sounded very busy in the background.
He said there’d be lots of polling in the coming weeks “what with the election coming up”.
Big Gains in South Australia, NSW and Victoria.
4% gain in Queensland and only 1% gain in Western Australia.
Labor wins with 79 seats.
You heard it here first!
One key aspect of Rudd’s strategy this year has been to avoid the wedges, avoid negativity and not get dragged down into Howard’s agenda.
Rudd’s apparent me-too-ism has been on avoiding the NT invasion wedge; the terrorism Haneef wedge; the lack of economic credentials wedge (by a conservative budget reply and so on and the latest tax policy). AND I believe it was the perfect tactic otherwise most of Rudd’s time over the previous months would have been on the defensive countering wedge claims and fighting the type of war Howard wants.
I think many of us have been sucked into Howard and News Ltd’s mantra of me-too-ism. Strange they never reveresed it when Howard at the last became interested in eductaion, health/hospitals, Climate Change, Broadband, Hicks, softening WorkChoices and so - they are the major me-too-isms of the lot - but not a word from the MSM.
Avoiding the wedge means avoiding fighting off the backfoot and handing the agenda to Howard.
248 I thought that was an essential element of it for someone with a plan for the future. Wouldn’t think it will interest someone standing on his dismal record though.
Sorry to go over oldish ground, but if Snoop Dog’s startling ‘internal polling’ insights are correct, why is the rodent even bothering to campaign? If it’s all over, why isn’t he sitting on the deckchair at the ole’ palace, G&T in hand and Hyacinth at his elbow bossing the serfs around? Or perhaps Captain Smirk has seen the same polling as Snoop Dog, which explains his similarly startling performance on Insiders this morning; what were they handing out at Lib Party HQ last night - it seems to have had a lasting effect …
Any Labor or Liberal staffer who gave away hard earned and expensive internal polling data would be fired on the spot and crucified. I think we can safely say that Snoop Dog’s internal polling was to put it kindly Snoop Dog poop. Though I’m sure Glen will believe it along with the stories he hears about Santa Claus voting Liberal.
254 Yes I am against drink spiking personally, far better if people choose their own drugs. I’ll be avoiding Liberal Headquarters if this is the best they can dredge up.
A Prediction, I think you are right on the money.
Just read the tirade at 184 Snoop Dog Says:
October 21st, 2007 at 2:00 pm:
If you have been told Tollner is going to retain Solomon then they are lying to you It will be extremely unlikely event.
ALSO the largest swings are in Liberal safe seats. We have been through this analysis before, go look at Possums site to catch up with the rest of us. The smallest swings are in Labor safe seats [no doubt due to Labor vote saturation already].
Yeh, soon as I saw ‘Howard Haters’ I knew something silly would follow.
If you truly cared about Australia and Australians instead of supporting your football side - the Liberals - you would probably be voting Labor.
And don’t forget reconciliation.
Howard has backed down on just about everything this year, and you’re right — the MSM has let him get away with it.
It annoys me greatly when the media attack Rudd for matching Howard’s policies, because he has little choice if he is to avoid a wedge. The media should equally well be attacking Howard for cynical politics — but of course, they seldom do.
I think Rudd can nip it in the bud if he continues to release policy ahead of the government (as he has done for most of the year). Action speaks louder than words, as they say.
Costello admits Government advertising wrong
http://www.smh.com.au/news/federalelection2007workplace/costello-admits-government-advertising-wrong/2007/10/21/1192940891722.html
252
Keep our feet on the ground Kina… we’re all a bit skittish.
Re debate: Good luck Keven Rudd! Give ‘em hell.
Ahem… Kevin
Re Alex McDonnel (#237)…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/21/2065345.htm
Spot on Alex, well done.
I don’t have access to a television. Is there anywhere on the internet I’ll be able to watch the debate?
Umm, I am involved closely with and very well informed about the hard science of some of this stuff, and if you think that the the UK programs are an unambiguous and ethical success, and that what happens in the UK is irrelevant to here, you are both seriously mistaken.
AM: This has nothing to do with public servants trying to keep their jobs, that is pure ideological smear tactics, which only betrays a serious ignorance on your part of the real story.
ruawake: Do you honestly think Rudd is going to significantly reverse the adverse changes Howard has made to the Disability Pension? Rudd is only marginally less conservative than Howard.
AM @ 260 It started out as “Union Bosses”
Now it is “Union officials”
What’s next “Union members?”
Then perhaps “Union Sympathisers”.
.
.
Reminds you of Weapons of Mass Destruction and then Weapons of Mass Destruction programs, etc, etc.
Tax War?:
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=196050
“Labor’s Wayne Swan and the Coalition’s Peter Costello have erupted in a war of words over the finer details of each other’s tax policies.
Treasurer Peter Costello has accused the opposition of making a blunder that would see 45 per cent of tax payers spend $600 more a year to the tax man.
‘$600 a year was what Wayne Swan tried to take off families in the last election, now he’s trying to take off $600 in this election, it reminds me of the Britney Spears song, Oops I Did it Again,’ said Mr Costello.
But Shadow Treasurer, Wayne Swan says Mr Costello is just peddling a scare campaign.
‘Absolute rubbish, Peter Costello has only got half a tax plan, he’s published some rates but he hasn’t published any thresholds.”
‘So why didn’t Peter Costello publish the thresholds he was talking about on television this morning, I’ll tell you why he didn’t, because he hasn’t got those thresholds,’ stated Mr Swan”.
I am sure Wayne Swan will be a better treasurer than the gutless Peter Costello.
Apparently we all need to identify oursleves in case we have a double life as a political journo…
Well, I’m happy to do that, just as soon as I get my special costume back from the cleaners,
then all you have to do is look out for me,
………in the dark of night……….
……………………………………, up there on the rooftops…….,
A thought for tonight: didn’t Max Gilles refer to it as the Mass Debate? There you go. I have tried to flame the anti-Chaser types.
Just Me
What part of “All it needs is an acknowledgement and a feel good gesture” do you misunderstand?
Yeti, there will be live streaming on the Sydney Morning Herald’s website (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2007/) and presumably other news sites. I’m sure you’ll also find it on the ABC’s site.
Yeti - the ABC apparently has an internet feed of the debate.
Kina - you’re spot on. Rudd has done well to avoid getting into arguments that Howard wants in order to apply the trusty wedge. The screamingly tedious ‘me too’ phrase has come out of that. That aside, as Phil Coorey in the herald yesterday wrote, Rudd has set much of the agenda for the year on all the big issues: (broadband, climate, IR, welfare to work, not to mention long standing Labor issues like reconcilation). The lackeys in the media usually run with most concepts dreamt up by Lib PR headquarters but the traction they’re getting on ‘me too’ is unbelievable.
Andrew Elder’s view.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com/2007/10/why-i-bet-labor-will-win-kevin-rudd-has.html
Banner headline p 1 Courier-Mail: Rudd sacks Union Thug.
It’s Maranoa for goodness sake - a token candidate in an unimportant seat, who probably would lose no votes anyway in that seat for being seen to be a tough guy.
Only time will tell, but I think Rudd’s response to Dean Mighell and by extension this instance is ludicrous. He’s learnt nothing from Howard’s successful obduracy and indeed loyalty.
The bigger issue - aside from the class politics of the editors who frame such terms as ‘union thug’ ‘union boss’ - is Labor’s failure to stand up for anything in the past decade. It’s now way too late to mount a case for any kind of collective value today: and that’s why Labor’s vulnerable to a scare campaign.
If Labor loses, of course, Rudd will blame it (internally at least) on union links, whether he believes it or not, to concentrate more power in his office. He may well do this even if he wins, hence the debate already amongst Laborites about the role of WorkChoices in the govt’s slide over the past 2 years.
Gillard returns serve on Costello’s past:
“Ms Gillard says it has now been revealed that Mr Costello was a member of the Social Democrats when he was at university”.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/21/2065255.htm
Looks like the Liberal smear campaign is coming back to bite them.
I’d rather trust Adam and Possum than some dud Liberal troll!
The Morgan and AC Neilsen polls would give only the slightest comfort to Howard.
Morgan remarkably shows a dead LNP primary and a strong interest in the Greens. If Labor suffer a loss in primary it goes off to the Green’s to be returned via preferences.
AC Neilsen shows a very firm Labor primary and an under sampling of Green. I wonder if you are undersampling Green areas if you are not also undersampling Labor areas? In any case the Greens would be 1% higher than that. Who will have to sacrifice that 1%? If it is Labor they get it back, if it is LNP then Labor get it in preferences.
The Galaxy seems to over sample the Greens at 8% which probably should go onto the Labor primary.
AND there is also the Morgan F2F from last weekend 13/14th to ponder:
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4229/
Morgan F2F (Pre-campaign)
TPP: ALP 57/43 Coalition
Primaries: ALP 49.5, Coalition 39.5,
Survey Period: 13/14 October 07 (Saturday/Sunday)
Again the LNP primary dead and exchanges between Labor and Greens.
And what part of ‘how is that going to make any difference to your life’ do you misunderstand?
Don’t misunderstand me, ruawake, I have lot of sympathy for people in your position, I spend most of my working week trying to improve it, so my credibility is good on this stuff. But how is a superficial gesture going to improve your life if the basic rules and conditions of the DSP don’t change?
But the Liberal Party has issued a “bingo”-style card so viewers can mark down Kevin Rudd’s “annoying” phrases and mannerisms.The card includes areas dedicated to the use of phrases by Mr Rudd such as “fresh ideas”, “end of the blame game”, “the buck stops with me”, and “I am an economic conservative”.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,%2022620041-953,00.html
.
.
Well we know we’ll never hear Howard talk about “fresh ideas” or “the buck stops with me”. He has no fresh ideas and is never wrong about anything so why would he need to use them.
Saw Oceans 13 last night at home and am I wrong or does this person
http://us.imdb.com/gallery/ss/0496806/02028s.jpg.html?path=pgallery&path_key=Barkin%2C%20Ellen&seq=12&
Look like a cute version of Janet Albrechtsen?
Have just been polled for the first time ever……did I think Australia was heading in the right direction? It will be in a few weeks.
Of interest were questions re Gavin O’Connor…Was I aware of the circumstances? Would I preference him above liberals?What was good about O’Connor?
Also asked to rank J Howard PCostello, Julia and Kevin, Richard Marles and Gavin O’Connor, plus the lib and green candidates on scale of1-10
i wounder if an insider liberal sabotaged the ten news report on Rudd’s childcare announcement
Kina @ 279, the minor party votes are virtually meaningless on the MoE that is involved. What you are noticing is general sampling error. BTW - I will come clean. I am an apathy troll. Apart from a wierd sudoku-pleasure in trying to predict the result, I couldn’t care less about the ALP or the Coalition. The ‘me-too’ message has got through to me from both sides loud and clear.
Janet Albrechtson - ewk!
Gillard, I am No Commie:
“DEPUTY Opposition leader Julia Gillard said today she was not a communist and never had been.
But she said at the same time as she was a member of the group Socialist Forum, Treasurer Peter Costello was flirting with the Social Democrats, a group that also included socialists”.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22622914-5001021,00.html
Just Me
Politics is perception.
You know, for all that Im an election tragic - just like you cats here - I really dont know if I can be bothered with the debate tonight.
I mean, seriously: Are John Howard and Kevin Rudd two of the most boring politicians of the last generation, or what?
I can just imagine the sparkling repartee now.
ruawake, just me - yes, politics is almost ALL about perception. EG John Howard is not an evil man, but his obsession with staying in power creates the perception that he not a nice person.
Childcare winner from Rudd. This is what Ive been hoping for. This issue is a BBQ exploder out in punter land.
Check the bounce from this one, punters. Night night Rodent!
Let’s see who me-toos now….
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/21/2065345.htm
G’Day All
I have my bingo card card ready for tonight. I’m not a Lib, but I’m after something to help me get through the 90 minutes. If I didn’t have it I’d probably go cross-eyed
Here’s one from AAP:
“The federal government has been caught out making false claims about the union connections of Labor frontbenchers.
Federal Treasurer Peter Costello was forced to admit that “a couple of” Labor MPs featured in a coalition campaign were not union officials”
Have they lost credibility on this now? They wouldn’t have pushed it if their research said that wouldn’t have got votes out of it….
Or would they?
For 11 years someone with no more skill than a filing clerk has been running this country, all because Hawke/Keating fixed the economy.
If Howard did not have the incumbency advantage would he even have a chance at this election?
I’ll be switching back and forth to Idol
Alex: I admire your bravery for saying that on here
Good evening
Back from a whole day in the RW - campaigning in fact! Did I miss anything (other than the usual round nyah-nyah-nyah)?
I’m voting for th one that plays the trumpet in the Navy.
Yes - nothing to be taken from the last polls until we get a trend with more. Just that their was no real Howard joy in the Morgan and Neilsen while the Galaxy has to be seen as dubious until it is confirmed or otherwise.
Won’t get to see tonight’s debate unless it is on Hong Kong TV which I doubt. But will check for comments on here when I can get on the net.
JWH does have talents, just not the one’s that you would expect your PM to have:
1: Lying.
2: Deceiving.
3: Scheming.
4: Dividing and Conquering.
5: Smearing.
6: Cheating and Robbing.
7: Bribing.
Mr Squiggle at 269
Miss Jane, Miss Jane!
BB at 282 said re: Ellen Barkin:
“Look like a cute version of Janet Albrechtsen?”
Could not be more wrong Bill - Ms Barkin has talent!
Who remembers Sea of Love, or the quintessential B-grade pop-rock flick Eddie and the Cruisers? (1 or 2 will do)
Barry Cassidy didn’t really give Costello that hard a time.
My appreciation goes to the camera guy who gave us shots of Costello’s legs nervously twitching.
Kina 292 - I agree. This bloke is a nerd who became a lawyer under the old system (no degree) but, by sheer persistence and a dominating wife, stayed long enought to get the top job. I never was a career public servant, but in the past I’ve worked near the top of the food chain in Canberra - the public service is there to make the government look good no matter how incompetent the ministers may be. That’s why there is no reason Swan would be a worse Treasurer than Costello. Costello’s latest antics show how he heavily relies on Treasury but still stuffs it up.
AM
All those talents are required just to get preselected. To make PM you need extra.
Good Point ruawake lol.
I remember closely following the recent French election. I was hoping PS candidate Ségolène Royal would win. Poll after poll had Sarkozy leading against her, usually 53/54 - 47/48. I didn’t want to believe these, and kept thinking… things will change.. the polls were wrong at their last election etc.
Then with two weeks to go, a raft of polls came out most of them were around 53-47 mark — but *one* had it at 51-49. I used that to think: “yes she’s got a chance, she can win, she’s almost there… ”
The rest is now history - the sum of polling was right - Sarkozy won 53 to 47. I can see the H*ward huggers doing the same here. Latching on to one poll (and one poll where they still aren’t leading, like I did) and using that to say they will win.
I’ll feel for them on Sunday the 25th.
In today’s NY Times, Thomas Friedman tells us that the greenest thing we can do is not change light bulbs, but political leaders, and then goes on to describe how New York got political action to change the cab fleet to hybrids.
The question for us now is how is Rudd going to push this message? It’s really a very big sleeper, and has been partly eclipsed by all this feeding frenzy over tax cuts, but it’s really the pointy end of one the major differences between the two parties. (IR being the other, of course).
Howard is easily painted as old world, since as recently as last year he was slamming Gore, and trying to call an Inconvenient Truth nothing more than a scare campaign. The world changed, and Howard was dragged rather reluctantly and belatedly to the view that climate change is a serious issue. (A million Andrew Bolts lined up end to end will not alter the fact that the vast majority of scientific, peer reviewed literature confirms this theory).
So, when all the petty tax fiddles are played out, (mine’s bigger than yours, nah de nah nah) we get down to what really counts, and Rudd will have to hammer this one home tonight.
Govt admits Labor ‘unionist’ ads wrong
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=306850
Ho ho ho
But I had it up first
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/backgrounds.shtml
How do people remember feeling during the campaign in 1996? Did people think the ALP had a chance at any stage?
Costello is a poor performer outside of Parliament where he is allowed to rant and smear and avoid logically reasoned exchanges in debate.
Swann could start talking economics and the yellow smirk would think he was talking Greek. Costello’s hatred of Howard is only surpassed by his hatred of Swann which, I suspect comes from the fact Swann understand’s the Treasurer’s job better than he.
The chief economist of McQuarie bank a few weeks ago told the British Australian Chamber of Commerce that the Howard government had “wasted” ever dollar of the surpluses on pork barreling and special interest groups.
Just how much in surplus have we had in 11 years? What a shame all those hundreds of billions didn’t get spent on infrastrucure, health, hospitals, R&D, education - all the areas in fact Howard has reduced spending. How much more growth could we now have if that money wasn’t wasted on trying to buy elections.
Adam - if the bloggers (which you sort of are, but leads me to ask why you’re arent fully… I’d read it!
) had a dollar for everytime we got stuff right first…
Well, we could probably buy The Oz of Mr Murdoch.
If we had a dollar for everytime we were plagiarised in the the press, we could by News Ltd!
And then sack the perpetrators!
1996 - I went on holidays in Tasmania. It was the only federal election that I did not vote in. I thought Keating was gone for all money. 1993 was the only election since then that I ever voted ALP (usually minor parties/independents).
That’s a great line. The ALP could run a very witty and hard-hitting ad campaign based on that theme.
Pssst… Kevin are you listening?
No. But then I wanted Keating to lose and Howard to win.
LTEP - I thought Keating was going to get spanked from about September or so of 1995. There were a few that thought he could pull it back, but it wuz just dreamz.
In 1996 I knew that Keating was toast - I hoped that Howard would be a 1 term PM. Not to be
LTEP - 1996 - I just kept on hoping that something would happen. I was in my union poll sweep and won because I said Labor would lose, everyone else said they would win.
I remember the day - in Perth - with daylight saving and everything over by 4.30 Perth time.
Graeme at 276
The bigger issue - aside from the class politics of the editors who frame such terms as ‘union thug’ ‘union boss’ - is Labor’s failure to stand up for anything in the past decade. It’s now way too late to mount a case for any kind of collective value today: and that’s why Labor’s vulnerable to a scare campaign.
Nailed it in one. This is a party that doesnt believe in anything only the perks of patronage and office. Labcest by another name.
Yes Adam mount a campaign on whether its 70%, 67% or 64% union official.
Somehow I think the ALP might pass on that.
opposition’s never stand for anything. Look at Howard in 96:
‘I’m a harmless small ball…nothing will change except political correctness…I love medicare’
I’m considering voting ALP for the first time since 1993. Not because I like them but because I want to spank the Libs (I’m in a safe Liberal seat). There is only one alternative - The Greens - their candidate is up the One Nation end of the party (yes, there is more cross over than you might imagine).
Possum, I have emailed you re your comment above.
Sadly, this is actually true. Santa did vote for the {{{dark side}}} in 1996, however, he was still p*ssed as a newt from doing the previous year’s delivery run. IMHO, the AEC should breathalyze everyone before they give them voting slips!
But no matter because all the elves and deer vote Labor to forestall any ideas Fatso may have of forcing them onto AWAs!
When Howard made has aboriginal reconciliation revelation I can bet his grandmother locked the doors. She knew she could be next.
I think on the child care policy Labor in McPherson might just have shortened in the betting. The population explosion here with young children is unbelievable.
The parents are like rabbits gone feral. Might be the one who got lose from Howard’s rabbit farm and looks like they just might think the grass is greener on Rudd’s farm.
I am not doing it in the interests of the ALP - I agree with Labor’s policy of ignoring the whole question as a furphy and a distraction from real issues (like who will be the lucky first community to host an Aussie Chernobyl). I am doing it in the interests of truth, which I personally happen to think is important. This “70%” figure is deliberate lie, which the media have been too lazy or cowed or whatever to ping the Libs for.
McPherson should come through for the Libs. There are some povos by the beach, but up the valleys it pretty rich. I would have thought child care would have more traction in Fadden.
Just got an email from a nice girl on the Ivory Coast with $9 million USD asking for help to transfer the money. Might put her on to LNP HQ , they might buy it.
Who cares about the 70% union front bench. The Liberal Party front bench is 100% Liberal Party which is far probably about as representative of the general population as the unions are. People are not just occupations believe it or not, they have families, different life experiences, different ideologies etc.
It’s not as if these people are just robots, they are real people and have different thoughts etc. Just look at conscience votes on RU486 and see the diversity of opinion within both parties. These people may have once been unionists but they’re politicians now. A 100% politician front bench.
Had a very nice chat with Debbie Blumel today labour can. for fairfax up against Alex Somalay. Very nice lady,articulate,caring and commited to helping.Ruawake you would be pleased to know her background is healthcare and is very supportive of people with disabilites. Compare her with Alex Somalay who dosent care about anyone except his lib mates and you have to hope the people of faifax will deliver a almighty swing to labour. Big ask I know against a 12% lead but you can only hope.
PS.If i was alex i might be worried about who i get photographed with and put on the front page of the local rag.
Agreed, Lefty, also the timing of the “Childcare winner” is perfect. Ruddster wiil claim a good deal of pre-debate media limelight at El Rodente’s expense on tonight’s telly.
When Tin-Tin weaves in into the debate narrative tonight, this vote-winner will achieve the perfect lauch.
Adam @ 324
Not to mention the fact that the Libs can’t work out why the unions are supposed to be this huge threat. According to Hockey, unions are ‘irrelevant’ and threatening at the same time.
Let’s get back to the topic of this thread. The message? Howard is not a good debater, Rudd will cream him. I’m looking forward to questions from ABCs Chris Uhlmann, he does a good line of piercing questions, Howard might spit the dummy as he did on ACA after being nailed by Tracy.
ESJ
Liberal lies, are Liberal lies are Liberal lies.
Choke on it!
Re political party membership
very few people join political parties now… it appears the liberal party
now does not have a diversity of opinion… very few people would
share the views of David Clarke or Alex Hawke who control the party
machine in NSW… there is now no place for an Ian Mcphee, or a Neville Bonner or a John Dowd, or a Fred Chaney or even a Malcolm Fraser in
the Liberals today
Ive been disappointed that the ALP has failed to raise the obvious counter that 70% of the Coalition frontbench are complete knobjockeys.
I mean, seriously: Abbott, Costello, Downer, Pyne. The list goes on - and even gets more dismal with deeply cringeworthy figures like Nelson, and Andrews (pffft!!).
Ok, so Ill watch the debate now. This childcare tilt makes it interesting.
Mick,
yes, I admired McPhee,Chaney and Co….I wonder who THEY would vote for this year!
Hopefully, Rudd will have downloaded a copy of the Rattus Crew’s bingo card before the debate. Then in this opening statement, go through every line on the card and just before speaking the last.
“Ok, so that those tragics in the audience with these (holding up the card) can relax and actually pay attention to the substance of what is said here tonight, (Blah Blah last line).”
Would not lose him any votes i’m sure, and would be good for a little light relief.
Spot on Mick - Menzies would turn in his grave, not to mention Gorton or Holt.
Possum,
Actually, I’ve changed my mind….
….I’m SPARTICUS!!!!
Kina,
I liked your comments on the recent upswing in LNP primaries, but it didn’t address one important thing
Three polls showed an increase in LNP at the same time. This could only be explained by one of three things:
1) each poll is wrong and it is just sheer co-incidence that the three pollsters had a bum poll at the same time; or
2) each pollster has a flawed technique and, in anticipating the narrowing, and have produced results to confirm it; or
3) “the narrowing” actually happened.
Now, I seem to recall Newspoll will be out soon.
My tip is that, in line with 3) above, it will show labor at 53-47
Mr Squiggle
‘The Narrowing’ if it did occur would be a narrowing trend over time, not one snapshot of polls (all taken at the same time).
This isn’t to say the Liberal vote did not improve. But my prediction is it will be back to the usual 54-55/45-56 range tomorrow. Reason? The recent polls were taken at a point where only the Liberal tax policy was out….of course more people than usual said they would vote Liberal. The real indication will be the polls now both policies are out.
I hope we see a decent amout of debate about Environmental issues tonight.
All Coalition voters who have any concern about climate change need to come to the reaslisation that we’re not going to get any leadership or appropriate action from a Prime Minister who wears his climate change scepticism as a badge of honour.
No matter what he says in campaign mode, he doesn’t believe climate change is an issue, so you’d be naive to think that he’ll do anything of any great value.
We need some real debate on this issue before the election concludes - what about one of the commercial station stepping up to the plate & organising an environmental debate on TV.
I maintain that unlike past debates tonight’s one actually matters.
If Howard somehow manages to come out looking superior that will be a serious blow to the ALP, and will reinforce the current momentum shift.
With the Kevin07 campaign the ALP have put a lot of emphasis on their leader. Lets hope he doesn’t let the team down.
Mr Squiggle,
You are a revolting slave?
Each to their own I suppose
Union workchoice ads are back, have seen 2 in the last 30 mins,
One from ACTU and one from unions NSW.
Mr Howard should have retired as a winner when he had the chance.
.
.
And one who was in the end defeated and either butchered in battle or crucified.
I must have missed that episode of Mr Squiggle.
It will take a few polls to get a picture of course, to see if there has been a real shift and how much. I don’t doubt that the LNP vote should increase, it was just interesting to see the Labor primary seem safe, one way or another.
We are just looking at one inch of the elephant at the moment, or is a cow.
Mal Brough needs a bit of practise:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22623559-29277,00.html
“At best we’re seeing me-tooism, at worst we’re seeing just commentary, not policy, no costings, and that is no way to run an over $1 trillion economy.” [said Brough]
Labor’s campaign media unit, however, did issue an eight-page policy document outlining the proposed changes to the childcare system, including costings.
Brough is safe. Folk in Longman don’t have enough fingers to count to 1 trillion.
My prediction for Newspoll.
Between 53-57 -
I guess 54.5/45.5
35,000 people were silly enough to be bought off by Howard’s smoke and mirrors future non-core tax cuts.
Another 35,000 got cold feet when Howard called the election and jumped back to the LNP.
How’s that “swinging” going Kina?
And the people’s verdict is:
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/poll/vote/total.htm
Following Possum’s advice, I now have a blog at
http://psephoblog.wordpress.com/
which I will link from my website. It will be a blog strictly for psephological discussion and not for general political discussion or party-political spam, which I will delete on sight. Please visit and make some comments so I can get the hang of how it works.
Personally I think these latest polls are probably about right. I always had trouble believing the vote for Labor was in the record breaking area the polls were suggesting. I still think Labor will win, but not by the huge landslide some seem to think it has to have. The only real question is are these latest polls part of an unstoppable momentum back to the government or will the numbers soon begin to steady. I think they’ll bounce around a little but stay in the vicinity of a comfortable win for Labor. I predict Labor to pick up at least 20 or 25 seats giving it a comfortable 5 to 10 seat majority.
Watching Robb on Sky, has he got the beginnings of Parkinsons? He is shaking like a leaf.
I thought that to… but does he ever shut up?
Kina - I’m in agreement with your comment.
Nor will I, Megan. And I won’t forgive Bush either and I get to vote against both responsible parties. That is one aspect of dual citizenship between these particular countries that I will thoroughly enjoy ;-). It will be nice to be in on the winning side for a change, I haven’t had that since Bill Clinton in 1996 .
Well I hope Speers does a better job moderating JH’s comments than the white witch Helen Dalley is doing with Robb.
Dire.
I got a really good insight on Liberal Party “internal polling’ strategy about an hour ago, first hand from my local Lib candidate.
It costs them $6,000 to do a poll in each electorate. Therefore it doesn’t take much imagination to realise that financially it is impossible to do regular polling in all 150 seats. I think the most important top 4 or 5 are polled at the most.
Whatever polling is done is not released to individual candidates. WTF.
Labor is doing regular polling in every seat that they feel they are a chance in.
The Liberals are depending on “media” phone polls and on-line polls. This should give them a really good idea how they are going! I personally got one poll in my electorate to over 80% 2PP in favour of the Labor candidate and in my postcode to 100%.
Wow, the Lib supporters and Party machine would have a great idea of where they are from that. I would suggest that the Mainstream Polling Company’s would have to be their best source of where they stand and that wouldn’t currently provide a lot of confidence.
Tonight’s debate is definitely going to be much more important for the Libs, hence the extraordinary measures to ensure it is stacked as much as possible in their favour. I hope it all backfires and Rudd wipes the floor with Howard tonight.
Rudd to speak first, sent in to bat on a good wicket. Will Howard get to follow on?
They had a coin toss to decide who goes 1st. Loughnara called heads, and heads it was, so Rudd goes 1st.
Probably a 2 headed coin sent over form New York by Rupert.
What are the chances of Rudd going with a ‘Bill of Rights’? Anybody got thoughts?
Loughnane
I agree Misty.
Rudd needs to win. When your headline is “Leadership” it’s pretty important you are the best.
Still, any odds on if more people watch this than Oz Idol or Kath’n'Kim repeats?
The important thing is to win, not because it will inlfuence the people who watch it (most of whom will be tragics like us who have already decided) but because of what will be the headline tomorrow.
“Howard slips” or “Rudd stumbles” will be catastophic.
Burgey, agreed.
Robb has about 4 times the amount of uninterrupted talk, the Labor guy got cut off 4 words into his last answer.
It’s got to be sporting.
I suggest they toss Speers to see who goes first…
Yeti,
The Age (www.theage.com.au) has live streaming from 7:30pm :):):)
Any rumours on Newspoll? Isnt it out tomorrow?
Out of interest, who has Crikey given the last couple of days to?
Crikey is as bad as the MSM.
I’d like to think the blatant lies in the Lib ads will force Labor into some basic electoral reform. I don’t necessarily mean truth-in-political advertising laws a la a prohibition on misleading/deceptive content (though similar laws haven’t led to meltdown in SA or NT, and business advertising is less unethical than before the trade practices law came in).
But there clearly is a need for a mechanism for the removal of factually inaccurate ads, now that the media has ditched self-regulation of them.
Crikey is the MSM, who owns it now?
Anyone watching ABC news for newspoll leak? I’m in Melb airport and can’t find a TV…
If it’s out tomorrow it most likely wont be leaked early. (As they would have just finished polling)
It will be streaming on the ABC
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/21/2065387.htm
There must be a lot at stake this election.
I just saw an election add on Win TV for the Libs authorized by the National Farmers Federation “Union”.
No Newspoll on ABC News.
Kevin Rudd should not aim for any kind of knock-out punch. He should be respectful towards Howard. He should appear reassuring. Better to be boring than to try so hard he comes across as a prat.
Most swinging voters with little interest in politics will tune in for a few minutes at the beginning - perhaps flick across during the ads on Kath & Kim. What they need to see is the steady hand of a reasonably dull politician who appears to be on top of the facts, with the occasional dose of fresh ideas - along the lines of the laptop toolbox of the 21st century thing.
Even if Newspoll is announced tonight it won’t be until well after the debate.
This might be Howard’s “rabbit in the hat”. A huge spending spree in election adds by the Business Unions and Farmers Unions.
Howard will want to be good tonight to justify the expense.
The NFF have 3 pretty dud ads, a weird won on climate change, a telecommunications one and a workchoices one.
Climate change will work for the ALP as will WorkChoices, the telecommmunications one is all about the $2 billion bush slush fund, that Labor are using to fund fibre to the node in the bush.
Yawn.
Re Mt Squiggle and I’M SPARTACUS.
My son told me a very funny story about one of Kirk Douglas’s sons doing some standup comedy in a club. He was being heckled mercilessly and finally, frustrated he burst out with:
Don’t you know who I am? I am Kirk Douglas’s son?
Immediately a person in the audience jumped up and yelled out:
No I am Kirk Douglas’s son.
Followed by another and another and…..
#380
Hope that’s not my drought relief money.
gee the worm hates howard already!
J-HO - what are you talking about?
Great, they’ve got the worm on.
There’s a new thread for the debate.
those cuts to Costello are poison for the Libs - the smirking git, not a good look!
go the mongrel kevvie
dolly might cry into his hankie
Egad! Labor governments at every level! … yes please!
J-HO: there’s a pulse Geeves, get out the defiibrillator!
Worm for PM!
The flat line for J-HO is the biggest damnation (fromthe Cahnnel 9 audience at least). It shows that they are not listening to him.
The Senator just briefed us,
he was very happy with David Spears and Chris Uhlmann’s objectivity and the structure of the debate. Overall a draw.
Ray Martin confirmed my fears the Worm is the new Che!
I agree - a one-all draw
No idea what’s been written so far… but OH MY GOD! WHAT A CANNING!
HI matt at 339
I guess this comes down to whether the narrowing was driven by the announcemnt of the election or the roll out of the tax cut.
My sense was that the tax cuts were a pfizzer - and the narrowing was due to the election being called
Howard is knackered!
And while I’m at it
I didn’t recoginse 3/5ths of the “jouranilsts” on the panel tonight?
Who the hell are those people?
I mean to say, I’m hardly hiding under a rock here, and I’ve never heard of them!!!
Possum Comitatus Says:
October 21st, 2007 at 6:26 pm
Mr Squiggle,
You are a revolting slave?
Each to their own I suppose
My response,
I just try to keep my nose clean and maintain a balanced view at all times
(which can be difficult when your nose is as big as mine, basically I keep falling fowards, and people guess my identity that way)