Prior to the leaders debate at the 2004 election, I went to the trouble of unearthing poll results on the previous debates going back to 1984. The Hawke versus Peacock debate of that year was the first, as it was previously a well established item of conventional wisdom that debates had little to offer an incumbent. However, Bob Hawke could hardly refuse in 1984 as Labor had run television ads during the 1983 campaign mocking Malcolm Fraser for his refusal to play ball. The record since makes clear that Fraser’s reticence had been well founded, as incumbents have only managed two wins from nine starts. In fewer than half of the nine cases did the winner of a debate go on to win the election.
1984, November 26: Peacock 50, Hawke 37 (Spectrum poll).
1987: Once bitten, Bob Hawke chickens out, leaving John Howard’s supposed debating shortcomings unexposed for another decade.
1990, February 25: Hawke 46, Peacock 36 (Newspoll).
1993, February 14: Hewson 45, Keating 31 (Newspoll).
1993, March 7: Keating 44, Hewson 38 (Newspoll).
1996, February 11: Howard 50, Keating 36 (Newspoll).
1996, February 25: Howard 54, Keating 36 (Newspoll).
1998, September 13: No poll located, but reports of the worm suggest Beazley narrowly defeated Howard.
2001, October 14: Beazley 55, Howard 35 (Newspoll).
2004, September 13: Two-thirds of Nine’s studio audience gave it to Latham over Howard.
It should be noted that Channel Nine clearly botched the job of assembling an audience of undecided voters at the 2004 debate, as the behaviour of the worm made clear. Particular notice was taken of a green-haired young gentleman in the audience who looked like nobody’s idea of a person who was considering a vote for Howard. Nonetheless, the overwhelming weight of published opinion, including my own, was that Latham had indeed put in the more confident performance.
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Malcolm Farr is just a reflection of the standard set by the paper he works for. Childish and ugly.
James J – don’t forget to take your lunch to school tomorrow.
Order 66? Wot that? A D notice?
When a party resorts to these tactics you know they are in deep do do.
GG,
and a good supply of cigars too!
Gary,
I agree, it shows the depth and maturity of the Liberal Party strategy. I would have thought most people tuning in are in interested in the substance not these mindless distractions.
But, I might be wrong.
nah, nothing like that! just a pop-cultural reference to Star Wars: Revenge of the Sith. Order 66 was given to the cloned storm troopers who immediatedly turned upon their Jedi allies and killed them all (except Yoda).
Just referring it to the MSM journalists behaviour of this last week where they have completely abandoned any pretense at neutrality in order to savege the ALP.
That is Gold James J this will make the debate far more amusing lol!
ESJ,
Smoking is bad for your health. That is why you are dead.
From ninemsn:
More here:
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=307667
I’m taking a drink whenever Howard says “union boss”. I’m expecting to be pissed within the first 9 minutes.
Rudd spoke at a NSW Right dinner a few years ago. 2004 I think it was. At the time I thought he was clearly establishing his credentials for leader at a future date. His performance was witty, suited the audience and he cam across as very credible.
This guys been a diplomat and speaks I forget how many languages. He can think on his feat = he can debate.
Now there’s a thought. Why stop at challenging Howard to 3 debates why not a fourth to be held in Mandarin?
I knew Glen would love that Bingo idea. We were all correct, he is a kid. Don’t be on the computer too long Glenny.
Ill take a drink anytime Rudd says
“when it comes to”
“new leadership”
“can i just say”
“working families”
“My challenge to the Prime Minister is this”
Ill be drunk within the first 2 mins of Rudd’s opening address crazy fun but enough from me…
And a nice sample of $weets performance this morning is here.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=306850
Rudd should go out there and absolutely enjoy himself. I think debates are fantastic because it’s a fair dinkum level playing field.
You see Glen, when it’s a level playing field, propaganda and no substance (which sums up the liberal party) can be exposed. That’s why Beazley performed so well because at the time the propaganda was at it’s worst.
It’s interesting to note that many on here feel that Rudd should directly counter the claims of union dominance, and ‘me tooism’. I also agree, and wish Rudd would just directly counter these arguments factually as opposed to wheeling out his key messages (i.e. fresh leadership, buck stops with me, scare campaign etc). It’s good he is staying on message, but it seems odd that this isn’t being addressed.
However it’s probably frustrating to the vast majority of Labor supporters on here because, as individuals interested in politics, it’s all they’ve been hearing the last couple of months. The other 99% of Australians probably haven’t even tuned in and realised these are key messages.
Just rewatching ‘insiders’ from this morning… half asleep when it was on TV.
How is it that 3 professional journalists can sit around and agree that it’s time for Mr. Rudd to have some policies to present to the people? As if the education/laptop fund was the only thing he’s announced all year?! The MSM were demanding policy all year, they got policy… was this good enough? Nooo! The whole point was for Labor _not_ to release policy. But because Labor did… they’ll just have to pretend it never happened. Labor – policy free zone, eh? MSM?!
And Bolt… concluding – with no interjection from ‘Token Lefty Fran’ – that while Labor has to release policy… the Liberal’s aren’t under the same pressure… why? cause everyone pretty much knows what the Liberal’s are about… And these ppl are paid… in money… peanuts are too good for em!
Wentworth mail.
http://susoz.typepad.com/personal_political/2007/10/malcolms-enviro.html
John Rocket @ 156:
Actually, I’ve benn surprised at how easy the Pundits have been on Rudd so far. Kelly and Farr, Milne and Hartcher seem to have given Rudd some credit for the tax-cut answer policy.
In fact I think it’s Lefties who’ve been harder on Rudd than the press (myself included in that).
Maybe they’re just keeping their powder dry. Maybe they’re so wrapped up in the minutae of political move and counter-move, but I’m not sure Rudd should be so disappointed with his press this week. It could have been a lot worse.
Re: the bingo card. I agree with all the previous sentiments about how this displays the Libs level of arrogance about their supposed “right-to-govern”. Can’t seeing it having any impact on Nov 24. But tonight Liberal party supporters will be scoring it thinking this constitutes some sort of major victory.
They might as well try to stack the odds at the Daily Telegraph poll or obsessively play the whack-a-polly game (Okay I couldn’t stop at one go either).
If the MSM pick up on it. They’ll just use it to show that KRudd has his own way of talking which will just get the average voter more comfortable with the prospect of him as the next PM.
Well done Libs.
John R, Andrew Bolt made a good comment that the level of sophistication on blogs such as this is very high. Hopefully in the not too distant future we will see the end of those fat old lazy journo hacks.
LOL, was hilarious watching Costello make an absolute dill of himself this morning, Labor should make a cartoon ad about the clown.
well Swan’s not wearing the Liberal propaganda.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22622916-5005962,00.html
When Howard refuses further debates, perhaps Rudd should suggest Costello, as the anointed one, turns up for the next debate. It won’t happen but a nice wedge, watching them both explain why not.
Gavan O’Connor gets a savaging by Jason Koutsoukis:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/more-than-he-can-chew/2007/10/20/1192301099005.html
‘O’Connor’s transformation from a man of principle and integrity to one deluded by self-interest and greed is a salutary lesson in how politics can corrupt. Make no mistake, O’Connor destroyed himself last Thursday, and everything he once stood for.’
Costello on Insiders today was quite probably his worst media performance ever. Based on that, if you were the Libs, you wouldn’t want him doing anymore of these extended interviews.
I wonder if Costello bumbling reponse to the the Insider question this morning about where he would live if he was Prime Minister demonstrates that he has not thought about it?
Does that mean he does not expect to have to consider the question?
For someone who is meant to have a burning ambition for the top job it appears odd that he has not given it much thought.
Also concur with the negative assessments of Costello’s performance this morning – it was like he needed to remember the parliamentary debating tactics that protect and project him are not useful in a one on one studio chat.
LOL… just checking out streams from this morning’s Insiders… does anyone think Eric Loebbecke (in the Talking Pictures segment) looks like a thin version of Joe Hockey?
See http://www.abc.net.au/insiders/content/2007/s2065240.htm
Centre does that mean you are Andrew Bolt?
I dont see much coming from tonights debate either way. Newspoll will be the next “big thing”, if newspoll is 53-47 or less expect panic in Labor’s ranks.
Labor’s negative ad response is interesting rather than rebutting the ads (which they cant since Labcest is clearly true) they are metaphorically encouraging people to “switch off” the negative ads. Will be interesting if this works.
I think this is a dangerous approach given the level of resources that has been put into the WorkChoices fear campaign by the ACTU. It is interesting that Labor hasnt made the positive case for unions, I doubt very much KR will do that tonight. His WorkChoices lite approach is designed to try and “triangulate” himself in the words of that disgraced strategist from the States.
The bullying and condescending style of Costello completely overshadows his likeable qualities & I guess that is why the Libs have fluffed it by not giving Costello sufficient time to protect this side of his persona.
The colour of Keating, which is a welcome change from the drabness of Howard, without the wit.
Dare I say it – Costello was very Lathamesque.
Latham-lite perhaps?
Sounds like Costello is also showing the stress revealed by Howard yesterday at the Granny Smith Festival. Not only did Howard address the Mayor of Ryde as Mr Speaker, when someone in the crowd interjected, but he also addressed the Deputy Premier of NSW as Sir John Watkins. LOL.
Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen.
It is essential when approaching a project of this type to pay attention to small detail: artefacts, stratigraphy, workings of the language of the body parts. Small detail always makes later analysis and dating a task that should be clear. So, ciao! Be happy on this dig – but please remember to bag and tag all finds.
All you Howard Haters are truly going to hang yourselves on the morning after the election. Last night I was shown Internal Liberal Party Polling and the bottom line is that Labor will not win this election. In a Nutshell:
1. Libs & Nats doing well in ALL Marginal Qld Seats. NONE to fall;
2. Libs pick up 2 in WA and hold the rest;
3. Nats pick up new Qld seat of Flynn;
4. Nats pick up seat in NSW of retiring Independant;
5. Libs & Nats hold ALL VIC seats;
6. Libs hold NT seat;
7. Libs hold Braddon in Tas;
8. Libs lose Bass in Tas;
9. Libs lose a few seats in Western Sydney;
10. Libs lose all Marginals in SA;
11. PM & Turnbull easily hold seats;
I am serious. Government returned easily. Apparently they are giving up in SA and not bothering spending money in SA because is definately lost cause. Are leaving it to Dolly & Co to do whatever they can.
Other Points of Interest:
1. Merger issue hurting Labor in Qld;
2. Howard Popular in Qld;
3. Howard & AWA’s popular in WA and Labor will do worse under Rudd then Mark “Mad Dog” Latham,4
4. South Australian’s think he is a Rodent;
Howard Haters you must understand that the Rodent, my cute little Splinter is the MASTER, he has more money that Kerry Packer and knows the politics of each electorate. Like Braddon etc, he will buy the votes he needs to stay in Power. Don’t you worry about that.
Oh and by the way the reason the polls are bad is the swing to Labor is Safe Labor & Liberal Seats but not Marginals. Strange but true. Battlers vote with their Hip Pockets. Doctors Wives and the Latte Belt like you morons are a different breed and you don’t matter.
The papers, journos and Insiders have very little effect on elections. Only the rusted ons from both sides tkae much notice of them If you’re not interested in politics you avoided it like the plague.
Just putting aside Mr. Bolt’s desire for us all to go easy on the Liberals… what policies do the liberals have?
Okay,
1. they’ve got a tax policy…
2. Something about a takeover of hospitals, which isn’t a takeover, it’s about creating community boards, in all communities… actually, no… only in some communities – which ones? ah! ‘Decent sized ones’… which won’t increase bureaucracy, which will be cheaper except for the 40% cost blowout (in only one hospital), which is only being trialed in Tasmania for now… except it’s policy for the entire country… except that we reserve the right to change at anytime (25th Nov – should they win).
3. Something about nuclear plants, which won’t be approved by government but will be approved by a community (but this bit might only be an aim… not a policy.)
4. Something about a new preamble and kissing and making up with the Aboriginal people (what is with Mr. Howard and the preamble???)
Yeah, liberals are a policy free zone… and no, we’ll never get the MSM talking about that though.
Giovanni — well said.
Bloody hell what did I put in that tea? “take”, “avoid” oh and full stop after “them”.
Snoop Dog. I think that stuff was dated 2004.
Thanks for that. After this phrase was uttered, I knew that I had to disregard the rest of the post.
Snoop Dog – started drinking early today?
On the subject of ‘internal party polling’
Who does that? Is it other arms of the companies doing the media polls?
Is it typically more or less accurate than media polls?
What I know about polling came from ‘The West Wing’
KT – I was suspicious after “Howard Haters”.
Given we have the debate tonight, would someone please find and post the old Frontline episode that had a great debate with a balanced audience.
I think it is Series 2, Episode 7.
Should put us all in the mood.
#184 – I wonder what would happen if there is an outbreak of bushfires in key marginals in NSW/VIC/TAS and the follwing climate change alarm? Could that be K-RUD’s Tampa?
There’s a long time to go, yet.
Oh, and I thought there might be another policy announcement prior to the debate from Labor (the childcare one)
Gives a numeric advantage in policy announcements to Labor, and they’ll get some free publicity for it during the debate.
I think it has has another advantage – it could mean they are painting the Libs as obsessed with the economy – to the detriment of everything else that matters (childcare, education, etc)
Wow Snoop Dog, I am going to give Con Kafataris a call and get on.
“no QLD seats to fall”… that’s pretty funny.
That $1.5billion childcare rebate will play well in the right seats. It was important for the ALP to come out first with that.
I think Labor should now go first on health and education too. They have led the debate all year and it has worked very well for them. They need to be seen as leading the way… they’ve looked shaky the past couple of weeks because they haven’t done much of that.
Uh S, the economy is *the* thing that matters. Without it we wouldn’t be able to fund all the things that are important to you, such as the Arts or new native title schemes, for example.
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