Comments on: Advertiser poll: 56-44 to Labor in Kingston

By: Max

Max — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 14:54:14 +0000

It is easily possible

5% FF first vote on it’s own, seems relatively uniform around the country.

10% personal name factor vote – remember he was a state MP for a long time (12 years I think)

Of course, the problem is most of that 10% will come from Richardson (and they go back to him through preferences). It won’t win the seat, unless something drastic happens.

By: zenk

zenk — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 14:12:11 +0000

still no movement on the betting markets for kingston, obviously not going to have an impact. some people are saying he’ll get 15% of the vote, they are crazy

By: marrickville mauler

marrickville mauler — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 03:34:50 +0000

Matthew Flinders #58 – well, Antony Green’s calculator shows ALP 79 seats with a uniform 5% swing.

Uniform 6% would be 83 seats. That’s “only” 53.3% two party preferred, too …

54.3%TPP is a 7% swing, for 91 seats if uniform, and still nowhere remotely near the newspoll figure of course…

Worse still for the government, if South Australia with not many seats is “only” swinging 5-6%, but the national figure is higher than that, then it follows that there are bigger swings in places with more seats up for grabs. Don’t blame you for trying but it does look like a landslide to me.

By: ICMore

ICMore — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 01:34:50 +0000

CW #49 yes Cox did lose by a small margin, in fact he lost by less than the preference drift from ALP FF voters following the ticket!
Michael #60 Yes paradise AOG is in Morialta, but most of the devotees don’t live in Morialta, they live in large numbers to the north east of there.
Rudd is likely to just lose or experience a Rudd slide, its a finer line than it looks given the cluster of marginals.
Brokies self created reputation is as a actively involved local member, the reality is he was neither active or overly popular especially towards the end but he did suck up to the religous right big time. Obviously he has done a deal to help his mate and get LC preselection for the next state election. The really interesting question is why did Atkinson who normally gets FF preferences for his SDA flock, dump Rishworth in it? You can bet he will broker them for young Champion in Wakefield!

By: Crikey Whitey

Crikey Whitey — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 14:04:57 +0000

Matthew Flinders.

NEWSPOLL.

Eat.

Hat.

By: Kev

Kev — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 12:02:17 +0000

According to the ABC election guide:

“According to the 2006 census, 30.1% of Kingston voters stated no religion on their census form, the highest rate in the country.”

By: Crikey Whitey

Crikey Whitey — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 11:19:33 +0000

Well, this thread is certainly flushing out who’s who in William’s World.

By: HarryH

HarryH — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 11:14:11 +0000

i feel for disaffected, poor Adelaide youth from broken families.

FF research sounds like they have been targeted as potentials.

By: Michael

Michael — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 10:59:20 +0000

In conservative and wealthy Burnside, and where we have something like 65% of people being Christians (albeit ‘traditional’ ones), FF polls bugger all. 1-3%. Same with trendy, inner-city, irreligious and wealthy Norwood. Bugger-all FF vote.

In outer-metropolitan middle class and lower class suburbs FF polls highly, getting closer to 10%. I’ll use Elizabeth — known widely as a SA sh*thole — as an example. It’s irreligious, poor, and socially messed up. FF polled 10.7% in Napier, the district that encompasses ‘Lizbef.

In Morialta, the district that holds the Paradise Community Church (”birthplace of Family First”), FF scored a moderate 5.7% and were beaten by the Greens.

(using results from the recent state election)

By: HarryH

HarryH — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 10:58:35 +0000

oh really zenk.

FF voters aren’t necessarily religious?

let me look out the window to see the flying pig.

i would love to see the figures on FF voters who are not Ass of God or associated with Ass of Godders.

Fielding is regularly confronted with accusations that FF are just a front for Ass of God. If he had hard figures to suggest that they have significant mainstream support outside of Ass of God i would think he would state them.

He hasn’t.