Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Newspoll: 58-42

Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …

UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.

782 Comments

  1. 1
    Ryano
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    Bam!

  2. 2
    Ryano
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:28 pm | Permalink

    Is this a joke?

  3. 3
    Econocrat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:29 pm | Permalink

    Not a joke, unless Tony Jones has given up current affairs for stand-up…

  4. 4
    BenC
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    Unbelievable,

    Can it be true? Lets get to the bookies before ALP shortens too far.

  5. 5
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    and that was BEFORE the debate I take it.

  6. 6
    James
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    Two words:

    Nail

    Coffin

  7. 7
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    From Adam on the previous thread:

    I seem to recall that Henrike Johnston ran for Canning for the Libs FOUR times before she finally won it, then she lost it after one term.

    That’s as I remember it, but I don’t remember her being called anything other than Ricky.

  8. 8
    adrian
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:30 pm | Permalink

    Huckin’ fell!

  9. 9
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Is this real? I have considered pinching myself

  10. 10
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Presumably conducted on Saturday and Sunday, in the traditional Newspoll fashion.

  11. 11
    Econocrat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    Adam – yes – pre-debate…

  12. 12
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    No h*br*s please, Labor people (that’s an order from Hack Central).

  13. 13
    Blackbird
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    It sure is to Labor.
    Preffered Prime Minister: Rudd ahead 50 -37

  14. 14
    Econocrat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:31 pm | Permalink

    50-38 PPM

  15. 15
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    She’ll always be Henrike to me.

  16. 16
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    How about PPM?

  17. 17
    Econocrat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    37… my bad

  18. 18
    Crikey Whitey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    Whoooooo!

  19. 19
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    cheers eco, read my mind

  20. 20
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    Just in:

    Tony Abbot accuses those surveyed by Newspoll as ‘already having made up their minds’ and asks where Newspoll found these people.

  21. 21
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    BRING BACK GLEN!

    He NEEDS to see this! :-P

  22. 22
    SirEggo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    I’m a neutral observer with Labor sympathies

    I try not to overreact

    But still….. HOLY S#!@T

    Using the immortal Antony Green’s calculator (you’re a legend Antony and we all luv ya) this equals …… it won’t fit!!!!!!!!!!!

    Never in my wildest dreams did I think it this happen

    What bloody narrowing?

  23. 23
    It's time
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    Is that the sound of sharp blade on wrist flesh coming out of liberal hq?

  24. 24
    barbara
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    Woot woot woot!!!! Where is Glen?

    (What was the NP vote etc etc)

  25. 25
    Matt
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    Well there’s a few people on this blog that will sleep more soundly tonight LOL

    What I said about the favourable polls for the Libs last week holds true for this Newspoll as well. It was taken in a period where Labor dominated the news cycle, it’s little wonder 58-42 was the result.

    It is however pretty convincing evidence the Libs tax policy wasn’t a ‘knockout punch’, ‘king-hit’ or whatever other analogy was used this time last week.

    Long way to go, but good signs for Labor…

  26. 26
    Crikey Whitey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    Any sign of John Hunt is a Coward? With his remarkable insight.

  27. 27
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    This is EXACTLY what Labor needs, some serious rogue action to demoralise the opposition.

  28. 28
    Dave
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    With the margin of error is still within 56-44 range that its been for months. Nothings changed!

  29. 29
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    BONG BONG BONG BONG
    Ask not, Edward, for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for thee.

  30. 30
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:34 pm | Permalink

    Confirmed on Sky. Someone get the Packer-whacker for Johnny.

    Malcolm Farr on Sky – “Shows you what half a computer can do”

  31. 31
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    I still cannot believe this :)

    Not in my wildest dreams did i think it would be 58/42 :)

    Has this ever happened before that the alp has widened the gap so much in the first week?

  32. 32
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    This is being discussed on Sky News NOW

  33. 33
    Dave55
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Ouch!! Another testing of cabinet support by Howard coming up?

  34. 34
    SirEggo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    OK, no hubris, settle down people, we must all be calm and rational about this…..

    YIPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  35. 35
    Charlie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Someone pinch me.

  36. 36
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Adam, with 58-42, and the economy issue largely exhausted for any real mileage in the media cycle, it is time to turn to the Labor strengths (save for nat.security). Could overt enthusiasm be an acceptable attitude?

  37. 37
    Let It End
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    Oh my, the last three days have been very very good days indeed :-)

  38. 38
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    Love it!!!

  39. 39
    Keats
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    F*ck hubirs Glen…. BOO-YAH!

  40. 40
    Scotty
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    *Does a little dance around his kitchen*

  41. 41
    Charlie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:36 pm | Permalink

    Oh Narrowing, Narrowing, wherefore art thou Narrowing?

  42. 42
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    Might I suggest we take this as 55/45 with MOE and not get to over confident. It just mean one weak closer and status quo, 5 to go and stay on the ball Kevi [and no measuring offices].

  43. 43
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    What was the last Newspoll result ?

    Ouch 58-42, that has got to hurt and I assume it was conducted before the debate ?

  44. 44
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    WOW!

    WOW!

    WOW!

    WOW!

    I am genuinely stunned. Both at the 2PP and the preferred PM figures. Not to mention this was taken before the debate.

    WOW!

  45. 45
    SirEggo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    I wonder why Smirky didn’t rule out a leadership challenge today?

    By the way, I’ve stopped now……

    YOU BEAUTY!!!!!!!

    OK, now I’ve stopped…….

  46. 46
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:38 pm | Permalink

    Damn, what a crap poll, no 6 in front of it.

  47. 47
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Labor Hacks are allowed ten minutes of gloating, and then it’s back to filling out fake postal votes, OK?

  48. 48
    Grog
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Ok I’ll play my pessimism card – this is obviously too good to be true, so next week when it goes to 56-44 the GG will run “Howard fights back”…

    nah bugger it, the Libs needed to get momentum early. It was THE ONLY reason they released their tax policy last week. It failed.

    What else can they do now?

  49. 49
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    The worm lives.

  50. 50
    BenC
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Looking forward to Possum’s analysis. Pollycide Part 4!!!

  51. 51
    Bobby Horry
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Great result! But there’s only poll that matters…

  52. 52
    blacklight
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  53. 53
    Michael Proud
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Bluebottle – it was 56-44 with ALP /Coalition on 39/48 primaries.

  54. 54
    Simon
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    Gaps narrowing on economy and Nat. security.

  55. 55
    onimod
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    ahhhhhhh
    4-1 talkback AGAINST the LP tax cuts was NEVER momentum.
    I even yelled at Brissenden on the 730 report tonight for referring to it as such.
    What’s the reaction going to be?
    I’m betting “all steady, nothing new” from the ALP for another week and panic like we’ve never seen form the LP – I think it’s Hockey’s turn tomorrow isn’t it?

  56. 56
    Blackbird
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    George Megalogenas says gap narrowing on economy and national security

  57. 57
    Oldtimer
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    OMG

    I agree Kina, it may be an outlier but it ain’t the ‘Narrowing’!

    Santa Claus just walked through my door!!!!!!!!!

  58. 58
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Labor still has a job to do, if the win looks good odds then the job is to maximise the opportunity.

  59. 59
    Charlie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Preferred PM – Rudd 50, Howard 37.

  60. 60
    Michael Proud
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Adam at 47 – I am off to the Cemetery now!

  61. 61
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Yay, we shall then have a minute silence for our dearly departed, the worm.

  62. 62
    BenC
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    Any word on Primaries yet?

  63. 63
    alpal
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:40 pm | Permalink

    I thought there would b e a widening. I think Possum is on the record of thinking the same thing. It will widen even further. This will be a once-in-a-generation tsunami.

  64. 64
    Lord D
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    CRUSH THEM ABSOLUTELY, WITHOUT MERCY!!!!! GRIND THEM INTO THE DUST WITH THE HEELS OF OUR BOOTS!!!!!!

  65. 65
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Not gloating, Adam. Genuinely stunned. I would have been happy with 54 2PP.

    WOW!

  66. 66
    SirEggo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    TofK 46

    You’re hard to please!!!!!

    Bobby Horry 51

    C’mon, let us enjoy this for tonight LOL :-)

  67. 67
    Mr Squiggle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but a result like this requires a labor primary vote to be at least 50%.

    This is a complete kick in the gonads…..

    I need to go and sit down somewhere, find an ice-pack, and wonder if I’ll ever conceive children

    groannnnnnnnnnn

  68. 68
    Crikey Whitey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Adam 47. How do you do that? No, don’t tell me, the Libs might turn their energies from Inet pseudo polls.

  69. 69
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    BREAKING: white powder found at parliament, found on HoR side. Are the libs trying to start their own terror scare? Way too coincidental.

  70. 70
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    George Megalogenas says gap narrowing on economy and national security

    That means the government is on the way out. Voting intention is most important, but those gapes narrowing mean people are changing their mind on those issues to justify prefering Labor, not the other way around.

  71. 71
    nath
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:41 pm | Permalink

    Who’s going to sack Windschuttle?

  72. 72
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    Eggo, Im filling my glass with chardonnay as I type (dont ask me how).

  73. 73
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    Don’t like it when the polls show landslide preportions.. the public may see it as a reason to believe that Labor will win so i will switch back…

  74. 74
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    You can put the figure in, you just have to be clever.
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=10.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1

  75. 75
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    Adam,

    i recall you ,some weeks ago, calling possum and others(me) fools for suggesting that some Lib strongholds like North Sydney, Ryan, Sturt, Goldstein,Higgins, Kooyong, Grey etc are in play.

    any change of mind now?

    Rudd is no hero to Labor left supporters but he is KRYPTONITE to Howard with “wet” Lib supporters.

  76. 76
    Julie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Now we know the real reason why Costello wouldn’t come onto the 7:30 report with Kerry ;-)

  77. 77
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Yes, Just Me. My prediction after the Rudd tax policy was that it would enable Labor to hold the line in Newspoll at 55 and that would be good enough. I’m very pleased to be wrong.

  78. 78
    the munz of mosman
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    71.. why would’t he walk?

  79. 79
    Doug
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Has Newspoll been taking Morgan methodology pills?

  80. 80
    Grog
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Shanahan says “Too early to tell if public likes the ALP tax policy”

  81. 81
    SirEggo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Let’s be objective here (I know it’s hard to do, bear with me)

    What can the Libs do now? Let’s think from their side….

    National security

    Ditch Howard (not as dumb as it sounds)

    I struggling to think of things…….

  82. 82
    Julie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    72
    TofK Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 9:43 pm
    Eggo, Im filling my glass with chardonnay as I type (dont ask me how).

    thanks for that thought, I just finished mine, will go back for a refill ;-)

  83. 83
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    At least this in part destroys any media narrative of a ‘comeback’ for the Liberal Party. Watch and see Liberal internal polling be leaked showing them ‘in front in the bush and key marginals’.

  84. 84
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    Harry, I don’t think I called anyone a fool. I begged to differ with the construction Possum was putting on the Newspoll extrapolations. I am sticking by my prediction of 20 seats.

  85. 85
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:45 pm | Permalink

    TofK. I am already on my 2nd vodka after reading those numbers.

    WOW! (Last time, I promise. I’ll revert to lower case.)

  86. 86
    sondeo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    #76
    Julie Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 9:44 pm

    Now we know the real reason why Costello wouldn’t come onto the 7:30 report with Kerry ;-) …

    And maybe why the PM seemed a grumpy old man last night.New he had to win to try and stay in the race.

  87. 87
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    Cant wait for Shanna’s article. If there ever was a ‘Denis Doctrine’, it would be denial, and lots of it.

  88. 88
    SJP
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    To paraphrase Aussiegurl from last nights blog :

    “Australians let us all rejoice for we are gunna be Howard-free”

  89. 89
    nath
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:46 pm | Permalink

    exactly Adam, this means that 55-45 is possible. That still wont deliver seats like Kooyong.

  90. 90
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    Sydney Newspaper headline last week was
    “Here comes Johnney” wonder what will it be tomorrow…..

  91. 91
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    Stopped by the office of one Wayne Swan this arvo and strongly suggested a Swan-Costello debate, face to face, would be good value for Labor if Swanny can go hard on child care, petrol prices, family budget struggles and stuff the women voters in outer mortgage belt seats will tune in to.

    The secretary kindly listened to my suggestions then took my name etc and I left. Tonight, on the BIG EARS report, they noted at the beginning that Captain Smirk had been invited to do just that, debate Swan ;

    He opted to say no and also rejected an invitation to a simple interview with BIG EARS, again, no thanks;maybe tomorrow night. Maybe he is still smarting from the dressing down he got for being a dickhead on national television during the debate last night.

    Oh yeah, I was a dick trying to advise W Swan how to run his campaign: but that’s ok, Im not running for Government or the unelected PM of this country am I. What a whoose bag Captain Smirk is outside of the big house.

  92. 92
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    JustMe, vodka! You menshevik! Bed its that red label you keep under the bed!

  93. 93
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:47 pm | Permalink

    Labor still needs to cry poor, under-play it considerably, even bullshit it – they don’t want the horses to be scared. If this is even close to true then other things could be on. 11 long years.

    This is like wining the sem-final and walking off the field without celebration, mind on the big event.

    I hope unions, officials, Labor members can hold it together with out the office measuring mentality. :)

  94. 94
    SirEggo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    Just Me, Julie, TofK

    I’m a tea-totaller

    Nights like this I wish I wasn’t…..

  95. 95
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    Kina @ 42 and Dave @ 28 – spot on. Nothing has changed. The real tsunami in this (i.e. slow and unstoppable) is best summarised in how our mate the worm didn’t move after a few moments of J-HO talking. The punters have switched off. Roll on 24 Nov.

  96. 96
    Blackbird
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    Bolt says Labor with a majorith of 10 seats. Attacks Henderson for sitting on the fence and then criticising those that got it wrong after the election.

  97. 97
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:49 pm | Permalink

    Yes Kina. Personally I think Labor’s policy of Rudd running for 150 seats is working.

  98. 98
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    Yes Harry,

    I too want Adam to at least admit that Higgins and Warringah are now in play.

  99. 99
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    81
    SirEggo Says:
    Let’s be objective here (I know it’s hard to do, bear with me)
    What can the Libs do now? Let’s think from their side….

    Umm, seppuku?

    I am just trying to help, and make it as painless for them as I can. Honest.

    Oops, empty glass again. Must have a hole in it. Better drink straight from the bottle, just to be sure.

    wow

  100. 100
    Grog
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    I was trying to stay positive last week given the strong AC primary. But I was sure the 2PP would be 54 or less.

    LETP 83 is spot on – this poll is good mostly because it kills the Howard is comming back bull. But at 58% it actually goes even further and the talk becomes about should Howard have gone, is it too late for Costello etc etc.

    The main goal for Rudd all year has been to destroy the myth of Howard and his ability to come back from the dead. Last week’s nerves showed how potent this myth is.

  101. 101
    gusface
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    got off train at St leonards (sydney) 2 bailey campaigners, lots of smiles from commuters

    where’s Joe

    hope he dont eat the worm

    ps 58/42 is surely the new benchmark :)

  102. 102
    Expat Follower
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    Wonder what it would have been AFTER the debate? I heard it on the web (no worms) and thought Howard started better than Kev, but that Kev came home with a wet sail – would have done himself lots of favours with those swingers who might be inclined to stick with the devil you know.

    With moe’s etc, tend to agree that not much has changed – whatever Libs are trying isn’t working. Wonder what panic strategies they have up their sleeve, and whether they have to resort to them now.

    The kind of swing is now looking like ‘96 levels or more. 2004 result leaves a big challenge… I think that’s been met, but can the Libs really lose 30-40 or more seats? Surely not.

    Would Costello stay if it was a rout? If not, who would lead the Libs realistically – they can’t go back to Downer (clown)…

  103. 103
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    Shanahan says “Too early to tell if public likes the ALP tax policy”

    Even if Rudd is sitting to the speaker’s right, in a chair next to the dispatch box, Shanahan will still say the election is too close to call.

  104. 104
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    From Your Rights@Work.

    The extent of the Howard Government's plans to take the IR laws further is frightening.

    Yesterday billionaire retailer Gerry Harvey said a "second tier" of foreign workers should be created in Australia, paid fifty percent less than local workers, undercutting local wages and conditions.

    According to Mr Harvey, Mr Howard and the Liberal party are in total agreement with him. "You won't get politicians saying what I'm saying, but privately they know this sort of thing is a reality in the future."

    Read more about Mr Harvey's demands to the Howard Government, and use our website to write a letter to the editor of your local paper now. http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/campaigns/secondtier

    WorkChoices has already cut wages and conditions for Australian workers by making it easier for business to get rid of conditions like penalty rates and overtime.

    Now big business wants to go a step further, driving down Australian employees' wages by taking advantage of overseas workers desperate for a new life in our country. Like Australian workers, people from overseas deserve rights at work too. One of these rights is a fair day's pay for a fair day's work.

    The Liberals cannot be trusted with our rights at work if re-elected. They will go further with WorkChoices. Write a letter to the editor now and share your views. http://www.rightsatwork.com.au/campaigns/secondtier

    Last week Liberal Workplace Relations minister Joe Hockey indicated a re-elected Howard Government would like to get rid of unions altogether, cutting vital representation and advocacy for working people.

    Liberal Finance Minister Nick Minchin has apologized to big business because the IR laws didn't go far enough, and promised "another wave" of changes. Peter Costello, who hopes to be Prime Minister, has said he is open to a system where the only right is a minimum wage, and absolutely everything else is up for grabs.

    We can't afford to let this happen. Have your say now.

    The Rights at Work campaign team

    Methinks it’s time to call for a Hardly Normal Boycott.

  105. 105
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    Make that tea Irish and your there eggo!

  106. 106
    Blackbird
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    Megalogenis said Newspoll finished at 5:00pm on Sunday

  107. 107
    Julie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:51 pm | Permalink

    94,

    SirEggo,

    Cruise on over to your local convience store and treat yourself to a really nice icecream or some dessert that you normally don’t indulge in. Same principle :)

  108. 108
    Noocat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Great news!

    So how much longer will News Ltd. keep persisting with trying to get Howard re-elected? Their efforts so far are obviously falling on deaf ears.

  109. 109
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Howard’s plan with workchoices as one analyst wrote somewhere was nothing to do with IR and everything to do with destroying Labor.

    When you got a poisonous weed in your garden you have to get it out right down to the roots. Labor has to be ruthless, don’t cost.

    Do I sound obsessed? :)

  110. 110
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Getting off at St Leonards – is that like getting off at Redfern for rich people?

  111. 111
    blacklight
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    happy happy joy joy

  112. 112
    Seamus
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Link to Skynews page – http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=196473

  113. 113
    Darn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Was that Edward I saw heading for the airport?

  114. 114
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Although these results are good, i would much prefer them to be the results for the Senate…

  115. 115
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:53 pm | Permalink

    Gusface, Bailey’s posters have all been pilfered by Joe’s mob. Change of tactics methinks. Still, the amount of time it takes to rip posters down you might as well put some of your own up (ive heard =))

  116. 116
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:54 pm | Permalink

    dont coast I mean

  117. 117
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    92
    TofK Says:
    JustMe, vodka! You menshevik! Bed its that red label you keep under the bed!

    Da. A whole case. (It is October, after all, the revolution month.)

    wo wo wo wo wow

  118. 118
    Richard Jones
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Never seen anything like it so close to an election.
    John Howard can’t do anything now.
    There’s no point in changing leaders. It would make it even worse.
    It will be termed a rogue poll.
    I agree with Adam. The final result won’t be anything like this.
    Nevertheless John Howard and his colleagues must be feeling quite sick.
    The debate wouldn’t have helped.
    All the allegations that the Government tried to stop the worm – and we can see why- hasn’t gone down well and has dominated the debate story.
    Kevin Rudd in the play pen with the children will help him with the women voters. It made him seem ( and I believe he really is) very human.
    Thanks Antony for showing how this would play out.
    It would be rather like one of those Indian state elections where there are huge swings one way and then the other at the next election.
    Maybe people really do want a change.

  119. 119
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    GG @ 98 – stay off the sherry until election night.
    Adam @ 110 – getting off at Redfern is like getting off at Redfern for rich people

  120. 120
    Sideline Eye
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    As I’ve been saying on this blog for months now, there are no dirty tricks left for Howard to play (just the old ones that have already been tried and failed), and Rudd is clearly the superior performer in front of a camera or a microphone.

    So it beggars belief how anyone can logically think that Howard will be catching up in this campaign (beyond eternally hopeful conservatives and chronically pessimistic and frightened Labor supporters).

    Therefore there is no other outcome left but a Ruddslide of biblical proportions. The only issue for me is the extent to which the Labor floodtide will inundate safe Liberal seats.

    People need to accept that Rudd is an exceptional leader (as evidenced by his unprecedented polling performances over the last 8 months) and so we should not expect conformation to norms, but expect results that are exceptional.

  121. 121
    Thommo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    I gotta say where are they getting these people from? All the seat by seat polling I have seen has the result at nothing like that.

  122. 122
    Doug
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:56 pm | Permalink

    Anything Morgan produces after this is going to look conservative -where are our statisticians when we need them to help us sort out the trend, margins of error and all the other essential matters to keep us on the path of sanity and sober psephological seriousness.

  123. 123
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    St Leonards is quite cosmopolitan for the northside. Not quite up the mosman scale.

  124. 124
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Cruise on over to your local convience store and treat yourself to a really nice icecream or some dessert that you normally don’t indulge in. Same principle

    I still have 5.5 KG left to lose before election day to make my target of 79 KG.

    I drank a glass of milk, that counts as a treat these days :-|

    But the debate last night, and this poll result, makes the 2 hours of letter-boxing on Sunday feel worthwhile.

  125. 125
    Sir Henry
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    SMH front page tomorrow morning:

    Kevin Rudd has pulled further ahead of John Howard, according to the latest Newspoll figures.

  126. 126
    charles
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    The loser of the debate was the national press club, and guess what I am still sticking to 30+ seats to labor.

  127. 127
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Marky, the Senate vote will follow the Reps vote. Trust me on this. If Labor gets 58% 2PV in the Reps the Coalition will lose the Senate.

  128. 128
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Thommo, we won’t know until after the election.

  129. 129
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:57 pm | Permalink

    Noocat… news limited will not let up… and don’t think for a minute it will not… pathetic rag from a dangerous man… perhaps the most dangerous man in the world due to all that power he has with newsprint…

  130. 130
    Econocrat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Henderson = SMH’s Denis…

  131. 131
    SirEggo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Where’s Glen!

    He’s probably heard the result and said to himself “I’m not going on Pollbludger with those dropkicks carrying on…..”

  132. 132
    BMWofVictoria
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    O deary me the Libs are in a tad of bother.

    My first reaction was “shock” but we have now seen several times just as the Liberals get the numbers back to 54 ish along comes a bounce for the ALP up to 57-58, this first happened between July – September and appeared to again happen only last week.

  133. 133
    Richard Jones
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:58 pm | Permalink

    Greensborough Growler, I really can’t imagine Warringah coming into play unless Peter Macdonald stands as an independent. He might just win this time. Give it a go Peter.

  134. 134
    Julie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Lets not forget to thank Tassie for doing DST earlier than everyone else :) … saved us all a late night ;-)

  135. 135
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Rudd Labor will destroy Howard in the HoR thanks to deserting lifelong “wet” Libs.

    that is fantastic news.

    However Rudd Labor will also bleed senate support to the Greens thanks to deserting Left Laborites.

    that is also fantastic news.

  136. 136
    Scotty
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    58-42 Just say those numbers to yourself. It’s hard to believe, but true. And again, but slower … F i f t y – e i g h t – F o r t y – t w o . . .

    .. and it still doesn’t register the scale of this result. Not just the result, but the timing of it. Amazing.

  137. 137
    Crispy
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Evening all. My big question is… are you smiling just a bit now Lose The Election Please? Ready to shift that prophecy of yours a little… maybe only a three seat Coalition majority likely?

    Interesting couple of weeks ahead. I was expecting another big policy splash from the Libs today… another Megaphone Monday to steal the running for the week (repeated every Monday from here on in). But we got nada, just a vacuum filled by the worm and Kevin looking positively post-coital all day. God bless him.

    Have the Libs got any more big guns to fire, I wonder, or is it a very fierce hand to hand battle in the twenty key marginals from here on in?

    They better make it thirty five key marginals…

  138. 138
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Yes, Kerensky must fall. All power to the soviets! And vodka for all.

  139. 139
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    The final result won’t be anything like this.
    Nevertheless John Howard and his colleagues must be feeling quite sick.
    The debate wouldn’t have helped.

    The result will have a psychological impact. It will demoralise parts of the Liberal support base. Some of them will give up, even if the true result in some marginals is a lot closer.

  140. 140
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    110
    Adam Says:
    Getting off at St Leonards – is that like getting off at Redfern for rich people?

    I used to get off at Hornsby. Frequently.

  141. 141
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    BMWofVictoria @ 132 – the MoE moves in about 3-4% range – so 54-58 is natural ‘noise’ .The real result is probably in that range and probably has been for all of this calendar year.

  142. 142
    AM
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:00 pm | Permalink

    ALP poll momentum:

    http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=196473

    “The Coalition’s recent brief poll resurgence has stalled, with new figures showing Labor taking a 16 point lead on a two-party basis”.

  143. 143
    the munz of mosman
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    My Moma told me there would be nights like this.( Sorry Van)

  144. 144
    I'm calling Warringah for Zochling
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    Keep calm, people. It’s 55 at the outer bound of 3% MOE. Ruddster needs 52 2PP. His cushion is only 3.

  145. 145
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:01 pm | Permalink

    Very fitting in hindsight. The storming of the winter palace uncovered the biggest alcohol stash in Russia, and was followed by St Petersburg’s biggest hangover in recorded history to date.

  146. 146
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    Another thing… this result will give Rudd big headlines tomorrow. No doubt the government will have to counter with a big policy announcement of some sort. Maybe the health policy that the government’s press secretary D. Shanahan has promised.

  147. 147
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    No Crispy, my 5 seat majority prediction will remain, until very close the actual day. I think this election will be very interesting, and will give us a lot to look back at after it’s all over.

  148. 148
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:02 pm | Permalink

    If Rudd can keep it to 55-45 come election day I will be a very happy camper, even if I am stuck in some el cheapo hotel in Box Hill celebrating my el cheapo brothers 50th when the numbers come in on election night.

    At that rate, the 20 seats Adam Carr nominated on his site are looking very good and then some.. Im stick with my 25-27 seats: a reversal of 2004 at this rate.

    Hubris: no, sir. A core beleif that JWH is done and dusted and its time for him to go home and ’spend more time with the family’…hope he takes Costello with him.

  149. 149
    Henry
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    More coffin nails for the rodent please!

  150. 150
    Alan H
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22631396-601,00.html

  151. 151
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:03 pm | Permalink

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SESr9D5Gd7A

  152. 152
    AllyB
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    You bloody beauty – Go the Ruddster!!!! What a lovely set of numbers they are…yipppeeee yipppeeee

    What is the Primary – is it published yet?

  153. 153
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    If Rudd can keep it to 55-45 come election day I will be a very happy camper

    I hope so. I will be nervous as hell even if the last Newspoll says 53 / 47.

  154. 154
    Grog
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    SId Marris’ early report:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22631396-601,00.html

  155. 155
    Richard Jones
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn, yes it certainly will demoralise Liberal candidates.
    People do like people who look and behave like winners!

  156. 156
    Expat Follower
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:04 pm | Permalink

    2004 2PP was ~47% for ALP, right? There is no way they can achieve 58% in the election – question is whether Libs can limit it to 52-53% and perhaps an ALP majority of 10-20.

    Anything under a 10 majority would be a brilliant result for the Coalition now (Costello might stay on!). 54-55% 2PP means a ‘96 rout is in the offing – maybe an ALP majority of 20-30? Means Libs have to lose 40 seats to the ALP. That’s like UK ‘97. even the most diehard ALP fan can’t believe this is a probable outcome?

  157. 157
    fiztig
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    Is it possible that this is a response by the punters to last weeks polling? Did they get spooked by the media’s pushing of the narrowing narrative and react to it?

  158. 158
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    I can’t believe this poll (literally). It’s amazing. It’s counter-intuitive. It goes against every other poll taken in the last week.

    But it’s there. And that’s good enough. Every headline tomorrow will be about “Rudd’s comeback” – even The Oz!

    I can’t wait to see Dennis’ analysis. Heck, I can’t wait to see Malcolm Colless’ analysis. Or The Oz editorial.

    And forgive me for my hubris but:

    WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

  159. 159
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    1876 all over again.

  160. 160
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    Just in:

    Mark Latham has announced he is willing to take a diplomatic posting should Labor win the Federal election.

  161. 161
    VoterBoy of Over the Water
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:05 pm | Permalink

    White powder found in Parliament House. Hmmm…

    BTW, was Piers Akerman at the debate the other night?

    Just asking…

  162. 162
    BMWofVictoria
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    If this was the election result that would be a 10% swing, if my memory serves me correctly Keating suffered a 5% swing, gosh there must be some really scary swings on.

  163. 163
    Julie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    135
    HarryH Says: However Rudd Labor will also bleed senate support to the Greens thanks to deserting Left Laborites.

    Count me in to this group. I am going Green in the Senate, not so much though because I am deserting Labor but because I want to rid the Senate of the Coalition majority and since the Greens are closer to getting the BOP than Labor that is a good enough argument for me. Whatever it takes to get the Coalition out of power :)

  164. 164
    Noocat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    “Noocat… news limited will not let up… ”

    But Marky, surely when it all comes down to business – government inside scoops, government advertising, and future media laws – they may not want to be on the wrong side of the railway tracks. At some point, they will have to make their peace with Labor, and better on this side of the election than the other.

    Or are they really just a bunch of rabid ultra right wing hacks, nothing more?

    By the way, am I right in thinking that a score of 50 for preferred PM would have to be the highest that Rudd has received by Newspoll?

  165. 165
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:06 pm | Permalink

    If the polls stay above 55 then good sleep will follow, of course, if you follow Rudd.

  166. 166
    Derek Corbett
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    Well. Seems things are going swell for Prime Minister Rudd. By all accounts. At this stage of the proceedings. When will the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Costello or his nominated ring-in, announce his front bench and his tax policy? The Nation needs to know.

  167. 167
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:07 pm | Permalink

    144
    TofK Says:
    Very fitting in hindsight. The storming of the winter palace uncovered the biggest alcohol stash in Russia, and was followed by St Petersburg’s biggest hangover in recorded history to date.

    I am about to repeat history.

    Cheers

    (wow)

  168. 168
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    fiztig @ 156 – it is likely to be just the effect of randomness – the next polls in the series will tell us if this is the case. That’s why this stuff is so addictive.

  169. 169
    Sinic
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    On News.com.au: “Rudd Increases Poll Lead”

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22631608-29277,00.html

  170. 170
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn, yes it certainly will demoralise Liberal candidates.
    People do like people who look and behave like winners!

    Yeah, and even the bottom rung hacks like to think their candidate is in with a chance.

    I’m supporting my local candidate because a) she is a great candidate with excellent qualifications, and b) the party machine is actually supporting her with decent bucks so she has a chance at winning the seat. In previous years they basically run dead in my seat, which makes volunteering for the seat I live in pointless.

    Is it possible that this is a response by the punters to last weeks polling? Did they get spooked by the media’s pushing of the narrowing narrative and react to it?

    I doubt it. Most people just aren’t plugged into things that closely.

  171. 171
    Leopold
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Unbeloodylievable.

    I don’t believe in 58-42 polls at any time, least of all now… but fark me, could the timing be better for Rudd?

    Kim Beazley must wonder what he did to the Newspoll Gods. Every time he started picking up a bit of momentum last year he copped a (bad) rogue Newspoll in the solar plexus. With Rudd, it’s been the opposite.

  172. 172
    Julie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:08 pm | Permalink

    Knives out at 20 paces for the Libs in the morning :)

  173. 173
    rabitoh
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    Julie @ 107,

    Just for a nice icecream right now!

  174. 174
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    SL @ 158: it does go against the oterh polls, but it’s the first poll taken since Labor fired a shot.
    This will hurt them – what a blow.

  175. 175
    Noocat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    I guess the only downside to a poll like this is that there is a good chance that the next poll will be down, which will trigger another “Howard comeback” frenzy from the media. But that in itself is not a bad thing because Labor probably don’t want to seem too far ahead, albeit I do think the underdog effect is often overrated.

  176. 176
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    The same thing happened in Berlin in 1945 when the Red Army broke into the wine cellars of the Adlon Hotel, the best in Europe at that time. They drank the place dry then burned down the hotel. As one does.

  177. 177
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:10 pm | Permalink

    174 – “other”

  178. 178
    Antonio
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    As Malcolm Farr said, it’s amazing what half a computer can do. The Libs just don’t get that people want their taxes spent on something worthwhile, not just given back to them a couple of years later.

    This is a vote for Rudd’s education rebate and childcare policies. No doubt he’ll have a few more hospital policies to roll out as well. Haing been a state bureaucrat, he knows that people want good essential services, and punish governments that don’t think this is important.

    It’s still a surprisingly large Newspoll vote for Labor, and state breakdowns would be VERY interesting. It is remarkable that so many people want to park their vote with Labor, rather than desert Howard by voting for a minor party.

    And while this poll was taken before the debate, the debate has clarified two very important things, that will also help Labor greatly. One is that Rudd has credibility on economic issues – so the government’s biggest gun has been silenced. And the other is that people do hate Costello more than Howard, so a leadership change won’t happen. I think Turnbull could turn a few votes around if he was leader, but he isn’t, and won’t be.

    On these results, Howard, Turnbull and Costello would all lose their seats. I doubt that that will happen, but I reckon they’ll be sticking fairly close to their electorates in coming weeks, while Rudd storms the country.

  179. 179
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    LOL, 113 Darn. Staying put.

  180. 180
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    I guess the only downside to a poll like this is that there is a good chance that the next poll will be down, which will trigger another “Howard comeback” frenzy from the media.

    Hopefully we have a Howard Comeback line in the 2nd to last week of the campaign, but not the LAST week else I’ll stop breathing.

  181. 181
    Darn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    It really puts the Galaxy poll into perspective doesn’t it?

  182. 182
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    Noocat @ 175 – succinct expression of chaos theory (don’t look for to much meaning).

  183. 183
    Leopold
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    PS – Let me amend my above comment: the poll is brilliant for Rudd in terms of turning his debate springboard into a trampoline for media coverage this week.

    Not sure that rogue polls creating perceptions of a crushing Labor victory will be beneficial though.

  184. 184
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    What was the sample, and what’s the MOE?

  185. 185
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    176
    Adam Says:
    The same thing happened in Berlin in 1945 when the Red Army broke into the wine cellars of the Adlon Hotel, the best in Europe at that time. They drank the place dry then burned down the hotel. As one does.

    LOL

    I am not prepared to burn my house down on the basis of one poll. Besides which, it might be a bit tricky, being a metal frame, metal skin job.

  186. 186
    Thommo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:12 pm | Permalink

    I still just refuse to believe these numbers they are just plain wrong. We will find out on 24th of November I guess.

  187. 187
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    Hoping for a whitewash, but until election night drags my wildest fantasies into reality, im sticking with my (1 seat majority would still make me smile) prediction of 82alp-66lnp-2ind. But even writing this makes me chant: prove me wrong, prove me wrong, prove me wrong. 100+ seats would be lovely =).

  188. 188
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    In the previous thread some people speculated about when the Labor campaign would turn negative. If they keep getting polls like this I hope they just keep playing the SAME positive adverts with different policies.

    There is no need to go negative if the polls say they remain in the lead.

  189. 189
    AM
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    Proves Galaxy poll was push polling.

  190. 190
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    Burgey @ 184,

    Those figures are not known yet. The Australian’s website should have them up around 12:30am EST.

  191. 191
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:13 pm | Permalink

    Thommo – numbers are never wrong – people are wrong.

  192. 192
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Must have been a push poll Thommo, done in Marrickville.

  193. 193
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Thommo… what made the Galaxy figures believable last week?

  194. 194
    Richard Jones
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    VoterBoy of over the Water, lucky you didn’t use your real name! You can check the story in NSW Hansard.
    I think a lot of people will vote for the Greens in the Senate, Julie, for the same reason.
    Workchoices wouldn’t have passed if the Greens had held the balance.
    Also the Greens will undoubtedly hold the government accountable.
    The government will still be able to pass much of its legislation with the support of HM Opposition but will need the Greens for the more progressive pieces of legislation.

  195. 195
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Thommo, have you ever heard of a certain river in Egypt? You are in it.

  196. 196
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Well the AC Neilsen must have been right, Labors primary did increase but wrong about the Greens. Newspoll probably gave the Greens back their 2% :)

  197. 197
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Thommo – even if there’s a different result on election night, it doesn’t make these numbers wrong, coz they’re a snapshot of where people are at now.
    Five weeks is a long time in politics, as the past 7 days have just shown.

  198. 198
    Thommo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    AM this poll is the outlier not the galaxy one.

  199. 199
    Grog
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Noocat 175 – playing the underdog though has it’s limits. I think is essential that people DO NOT think the ALP are the underdogs going in to the last week. People need to think they are going to win.

  200. 200
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    I still just refuse to believe these numbers they are just plain wrong. We will find out on 24th of November I guess.

    I don’t think Labor will win 111 seats or whatever Antony’s calculator says with 58% of the 2pp.

    However I think this poll says they will win about 90, rather than the 80 that I have been predicting.

    I guess I should just split the difference and say 85, so long as Sturt is the 85th seat they win!

  201. 201
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    ASM @ 189 – Galaxy started life as a telemarketing company, I heard. Talking of chaos theory: never get telemarketers to do polling!

  202. 202
    Noocat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:15 pm | Permalink

    “…the poll is brilliant for Rudd in terms of turning his debate springboard into a trampoline for media coverage this week.”

    And if CPI figures released this week show an unexpectedly high rate of inflation, then speculation of a rise in interest rates will cap off a very advantageous week for Labor.

  203. 203
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    Thommo… what gives you the belief that Galaxy was correct? Is it just because it confirms your belief of what the polls should be?

  204. 204
    TofK
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    There should be a comprehensive history study of mass alcoholism brought about by social dislocation. Make for a fascinating, and probably very long, read.

  205. 205
    Scotty
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    I think Rudd should take the day off tomorrow after this poll outcome and put his feet up. He’s earned it.

  206. 206
    BMWofVictoria
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    Thommo before you dismiss this poll please go and check out Palmers poll graphs for they show all year the ALP have had at least 55% support and it was only a month ago that Newspoll had a 60-40 before dipping to 55 but yeah all 4 polling companies have had these very lopsided numbers all year.

  207. 207
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    Noocat… News Limited don’t give a stuff.. They are in a powerful position.. and after the election they will not let up… And for Labor their will be no excuses for them… no blaming the State Governments for probs… the ball would be in their court..
    To be frank Labor should stiffen the Media Laws and toughen the public broadcasting authorities role regarding misleading reporting…
    News Limited have a monopoly regarding newsprint in Queensland and South Australia and i think Tassie and just think about the role the play if any policies come which are anti business..
    People should stop gloating, only gloat when it happens…

  208. 208
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    Wrong Scotty… he should act as if it’s a rogue and double his efforts. I’m not giving him any rest.

  209. 209
    Grog
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    Thommo, the crucial thing is outlier or not this poll will get big coverage (that’s the only worth of polls – they only matter if they can be used to tell a story, and this is a very bad story for the Libs)

  210. 210
    Thommo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    The Galaxy figure is just more believable full stop. Just look at the seat by seat polling we have seen there are no numbers close to 58/42. We will find out on election night.

  211. 211
    Crispy
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    “Thommo Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 10:14 pm
    AM this poll is the outlier not the galaxy one.”

    They’re probably both outliers, Thommo, which puts reality around 55/56. Not unreasonable given the mood I’ve been picking up lately.

    Crosby Textor nailed all the reasons months ago. They may be evil, but they’re good.

  212. 212
    centaur_007
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    We saw the dead cat bounce and it is quite dead now. It had it’s 2 to 3% difference which you would expect. The electorate was bounced quite heavily and that was it.
    I am at 20 seats still too, expect 55/45 from here on. Swings but in the wrong places. Like in Vic election, biggest swing in labor held swings then in liberal then in marginal.
    Whatch the Murdoch press turn in the final week. No paper wants a whitewash. Only a close game sells tickets, but then they’ll turn to save credibility.

  213. 213
    zenk
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    should we start the competition for what the GG’s headline will be?

    Maybe: “Half of Australia doesn’t support Rudd for PM”"?

  214. 214
    SJP
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    Will “J-Ho loses the ‘big’ tax cut mo” be the headline in the GG tomorrow?

    I doubt it but it will interesting to see how the MSM Howard cheer squad spin their way out of this.

    My worry is that, if there is a perception of a Ruddslide at this stage, there maybe swing back to Howard by those who decide their vote as they fill out their ballot papers, thinking Labor is going to win anyway.

  215. 215
    Baz
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:19 pm | Permalink

    JWH cannot win while he lacks a clear and coherent message to sell the electorate. He had one for each of the past three elections, but a general appeal to “economic management” doesn’t work unless it ties directly into personal experiences. If he does manage to hit a theme which resonates (and to my surprise it’s seeming less likely), look for a comeback.

    Aristotle made a good point a fair while ago that polls tend to vary more widely during election campaigns. While this result will make the coalition sweat, the other most recent polls have moved to the coalition. On that note, does anyone know the furthest out Newspoll has been from the final result during an election period ?

  216. 216
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Galaxy started life as a telemarketing company, I heard.

    I believe you heard wrong. It was started by David Briggs after he left Newspoll. For all the bad press it gets, it does in fact have the best record of any pollster since it was established in 2004.

  217. 217
    BMWofVictoria
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Thommo you are correct the Marginals are swinging less than these polls would suggest but as our dear fury Possum has shown looking at Newspoll and Nelson the swing is bigger in safe Liberal seats than the marginals.

  218. 218
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Thommo,

    Let me explain the basic rule of politics to you.

    Perception = reality

    In this case, the perception is that Rudd is in the ascendancy, the Coalition tax cuts and negative advertising haven’t worked and the Libs are on the nose.

    Whether this is true or not is irrelevant – once figures like this get digested by the MSM, everyone will be thinking that the Coalition are stuffed. I, myself, have doubts over the accuracy of the poll, but that is unimportant at the moment. There’s no new polls til at least Thursday, so Rudd gets 2 clear days with this poll to build even more momentum.

  219. 219
    Richard Jones
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    The inflation figure is likely to be 1% or more, possibly 1.1%. The Reserve Bank would feel obliged to act if they go that high and frankly, if they see opinion polls like these, they will realise that it won’t make any difference to the election result. They wouldn’t need to wait until December.

  220. 220
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    Well my dear Kameraden,

    Winners are grinners and losers can please themselves, but now that victory is in sight, within taste , why be modest – what should Labor do with the keys to the kingdom – surely $750 for laptops is not the extent of the vision?

  221. 221
    VoterBoy of Over the Water
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    Richard Jones, 194.

    Oh, I’m agog and aghast…

    My line of inquiry was far more innocent – I was just thinking, ‘Piers, he’s a big man, probably very liberal with the Johnson’s Baby Powder to avoid chafing’, that sort of thing.

    (Searches for ironic emoticon, but fails to find one…)

  222. 222
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    should we start the competition for what the GG’s headline will be?

    Rudd scared of Howard – wants to debate Costello

    In other news: Newspoll workers sacked

  223. 223
    Scotty
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    I wonder if some of those polled on the weekend saw the press on Friday from the Neilsen and Galaxy results, and began to think that Howard might be re-elected, thus influencing them to make the jump to Rudd?

    They might have been thinking that it’s time for a change, but weren’t willing to commit just yet, until faced with the prospect of NOT getting the change, thus galvanising their decision to say “ALP” in response to the Newspoll pollsters?

  224. 224
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    Leopold @ 171

    that is because Rudd is Rupert’s man. And as Shamaham once told us”Rupert owns newspoll”.

    Rupert has Rudd in his pocket….thanks to Col Allen *wink*.

    the stripper story was just a shot over Kevins bow.

    World domination is such a dirty game.

  225. 225
    Noocat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:21 pm | Permalink

    “I think is essential that people DO NOT think the ALP are the underdogs going in to the last week. People need to think they are going to win.”

    Grog, I agree completely. The leaked Crosby-Textor polling this year highlighted the importance of expectations of a party winning government. This would far outweigh any underdog effect. Besides, the underdog effect only works if you LIKE the underdog. People might feel sorry for a party that has lost support, but if they still don’t like them or their policies, then voting for them won’t come easy.

    Trying to be perceived as an underdog can, however, minimise impressions of arrogance, but the win expectations still need to be there and the likeability also needs to be there. People like to back a winner.

    In many ways, Labor is a theoretical underdog in terms of needing 16 seats and fighting a great deal of media bias. There is a lot of institutional bias against Labor. But despite the challenge, they are doing brilliantly so far.

  226. 226
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    216 – William – I defer to your great knowledge on these things, but they really like to push the envelope in sample size and they always seem to please the master.

  227. 227
    Mark
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Could be 61-39 with MOE!

  228. 228
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    ESJ, what’s John Howard’s vision? A tax cut so we can all decide what to do with it ourselves…

    Well now that’s out of the way… what to do with 5 more weeks of campaigning?

  229. 229
    Ashley
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Keating was wrong… THIS is going to be the sweetest victory of all.

    Especially if Howard loses his seat.

  230. 230
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    Sir Eggo, I suspect that ditching Howard might ruin what little hope the Libs have left at this point.

    Last night, I actually felt a bit sorry for Howard, watching him squirm and look on the verge of tears–and I’m about as much a long-term Howard Hater as you could find. If the Liberals shafted him at this point, I suspect that they’d lose support from those who find Costello far too much of a brash upstart, those who adore Howard (and yes, they do exist, strangely enough). We’re talking here of over 70 year old, mainly female, upper-middle class types, a pretty large constituency of the Liberal Party.

    If I felt Howard’s pain, given that I want him to suffer a miserable and agonising defeat, just imagine how they must be feeling about him.

  231. 231
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:23 pm | Permalink

    This will be great for the Labor guys, help them settle and be more relaxed. Rudd can hopefully relax a bit and be more like he was last night.

  232. 232
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    LTEP 228

    Which Labor copied. I rest my case.

  233. 233
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    LTEP,

    It’s now time to start drinking daily, so you can build up your alcohol tolerance for the massive party you’re going to have on election night (win or lose)!!!

  234. 234
    Scotty
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    LTEP (208) I’m half joking…. To be honest he doesn’t look very tired. Looks very relaxed and in control. I suspect members of his team have probably told him to rest and I’ll wager he told them to bugger off.

  235. 235
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Of course not, Edward, but do you think we are going to reveal our real plans to kulaks like you? Let me just suggest, because I like you, that you have a suitcase packed on the night of the 24th.

  236. 236
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    212 – read or re-read the Possum’s posts of the last few months, this time the swings will be where the ALP needs them, if it ends up 55-45 then it will be easily over 90 seats.

  237. 237
    Antonio
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:25 pm | Permalink

    Like most people, I find it hard to credit that this poll will be duplicated on election day. But when you think about it, the Ostrayan people have been perfectly prepared to give Labor landslide victories in various states. Bracks, Beattie and Rann have stormed to huge majorities IN LINE WITH THE PRE-ELECTION POLLS, and Labor’s initial win in the Northern Territory was a massive swing.

    If people want to get rid of a government these days, they’ll swing as far as they can. There aren’t as many rusted-on voters to the major parties as they used to be, partly because there’s less difference between what the parties stand for these days.

    They like Rudd, they are not scared of Labor Governments because of the state experiences, and the think it’s time to give Labor a go in Canberra. And no doubt they’ll be prepared to swing massively against a state Labor Government when the Liberal Party bothers to put up a presentable Opposition somewhere.

  238. 238
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:26 pm | Permalink

    It’s almost certainly an outlier and we should keep nice and calm. The polls get more volatile now the campaign is under sail.

    But still… I so did not see that coming. The media narrative will be a killer.

    Holy crap.

  239. 239
    Econocrat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:27 pm | Permalink

    Well, after that lil’ pick-me-up, I’m turning in – ‘night all.

  240. 240
    Mark
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    I wonder how much booze they have stashed at Kirribilli?

  241. 241
    Lose the election please
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    ESJ, people don’t care about all this childish ‘you copied me’ coming from either party.

    If you’re going to criticise one party for lack of vision, look at the other. The Liberal Party has never once offered a comprehensive vision for the future, even with the resources of government.

    Of course, I expect him to release policies over the duration of the campaign… but surely a government should be forming policy for the duration of its term.

  242. 242
    Henry
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    It might even be worth buying the Austrayan tomorrow.
    Nah, I’ll just steal one instead…

  243. 243
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    58-42 is very unlikely Thommo, well it would make election history I would have thought. Memory tells me a national swing of 5-6% is a very good result in recent election history, but Im no psephelogist.

    But things are not looking good for the ‘the narrowing’ thesis at this stage in the campaign if the 2 percent JWH allegedly got on the Tax policy has already wormed its way out of his pocket, and before the worm took its toll at the debate. I understand this poll closed at 5pm Sunday night.

  244. 244
    Bobby Horry
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:28 pm | Permalink

    Guys on a sort of related side note, what does everyone think of the nurse strike in Victoria? Could this hurt Labor federally, or is it too prickly an issue for Howard to try and take advantage of due to it concerning WorkChoices

  245. 245
    Future Pollie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Before you all rudd-gasm and stain the bedsheets….

    This poll goes against ALL of the seat by seat polling from around the country – even in SA (the ALP’s claimed “strongest” state), the seat by seat polling shows at best a 5-6% swing..

    The final result is going to be MUCH closer than this latest newspoll suggests.
    Next week the polls are going to show a shortening again, and headlines of “Howard makes a comeback”.

  246. 246
    Spiros
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    It’s an Austin Powers moment.

    “Yeah baby”.

    Add the debate effects, and it’s 60:40.

    Subtract the too good to be true effect, and it’s 56:44.

    Add the moralised Liberal effect, and it’s 57:43.

    Which should give Labor around 120 seats in a 150 seat Parliament.

  247. 247
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    ESJ, what’s John Howard’s vision? A tax cut so we can all decide what to do with it ourselves…

    Yes he wants to cut tax so we all voluntarily donate money to the construction of clean energy sources, and so we all donate to the construction of new water infrastructure.

    This is his grand plan, government via donation.

  248. 248
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    #216 – William – I seem to remember Galaxy forecast a swing against me of 5% two days before polling day on a sample of abut 500 which fit the local media narrative quite nicely and it never eventuated. If they are not a telemarketing company they should try it – its a profitable line of business to which they would be suited.

  249. 249
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    I was there for the massive swing against the CLP in the Northern Territory. As soon as Labor got itself a decent leader and the Govt leadership started to look weak – it was all over. Nothing was going to change the result. 20+ years in govt and they got murdered at their first loss.

    Yesterday Howard did nothing to enhance his image as a strong leader.

  250. 250
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    Three influential colomnists on Lateline- No two right wing brain dead colomnists … who don’t believe in Climate Change… time to turn over again… not wasting my time listening to these so called “Influential” people….

  251. 251
    Dyno
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    On outliers – you would have to think that both Galaxy and this one are likely to be outliers (in opposite directions). But just say the true 2PP was 55 last week and is now 56, the point is that is still very comfortable for Labor. Only the proverbial meteorite, or some unforced Labor error, is likely to change the result now.
    William makes a good point about Galaxy though, whether by luck or skill they were actually the only ones who got it right in 2004.
    I think the Libs’ biggest single problem with swinging voters (most of whom only use about 1% of their brain to engage with politics) is a simple one: Howard seems too old. Most of their other perceived problems (no agenda, old-fashioned policies on the non-economic issues, etc) derive from this. This is hurting them much more than specific errors like Iraq.

  252. 252
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Ackerman’s rants against Rudd continues (check out the comments sections for Ackerman’s responses):

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/political_insects_all_slime_no_spine/

  253. 253
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Three influential colomnists on Lateline- No two right wing brain dead colomnists

    Who are they, I want to know if I should tune in.

    My guess is Bolt is one of them

  254. 254
    chrispydog
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:32 pm | Permalink

    No wonder Howard’s looking so haggard…he’s staring into the abyss, and the abyss is staring back.

    The only thing narrowing is the noose, and now we’ll get to see the desperate pussies that didn’t have the cojones to roll the old man get swept aside with him.

    The smirk and the mad monk will be in overdrive now, but it’s futile to resist, we have them well and truly in our sights.

  255. 255
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Game over Rodent!!!

    58!!!!!!!!

    As I predicted – the wheels have come off the coalition campaign in week 2.

    It will be an historic massacre.

  256. 256
    Andrew
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:33 pm | Permalink

    Thommo youre a fool. The Galaxy 53/47 was much more out of kilter than this one.

  257. 257
    Charlie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Bolt, Henderson and Megalogenis.

  258. 258
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:34 pm | Permalink

    Marky Marky,

    Lateline is produced by the Neo-con wing of the ABC.

    has been for many months now.

  259. 259
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:35 pm | Permalink

    Yep one right and the other Gerald Henderson…Don’t know anything about the third George Meglomanis ( spelling)… Anyway this is why the media is going downhill.. Fast…….

  260. 260
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:36 pm | Permalink

    Bolt, Henderson and Megalogenis.

    Henderson is a mystery – how could someone who sounds so reasonable so frequently be completely wrong?

  261. 261
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    I think people see through Rudd but are still playing with the pollsters.
    Piers Akerman
    Mon 22 Oct 07 (08:00pm)
    .
    .
    Why should you have to face reality if you work for Rupert?

  262. 262
    Alex McDonnel
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

    It was the announcement on the child care rebate that gave this boost. All we need now is the new policy to reduce HECS and it’s in he bag!

  263. 263
    StanS
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    HarryH,
    Are you the HarryH on top of the GD range?

  264. 264
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Don’t know anything about the third George Meglomanis

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php

  265. 265
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll at 58/42 two party preferred to Labor is on the high side, but I don’t read any sort of stunning “recovery” by Rudd from the Galaxy and ACNielson polls last week of around 53-54 to Labor…

    http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/2007/10/election-campaign-opinion-polls.html

  266. 266
    Charlie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Alex, childcare would have had a very marginal impact on this poll. The majority of the survey would have been conducted on Friday and Saturday, before the childcare announcement was made.

  267. 267
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Kulak indeed Adam. I like you to Adam, youve been quite resilient and “on-message”. If I am a Kulak you must feel like the manager of tractor factory No54 in the Ukraine in 1937.

    The Liberal party is the party of conservatism. I would not expect them to do anything more than offer tax cuts, pander to prejudice etc etc

    Whatever happened to “the unity of Labour is the hope of the world”?

    To quote Pope Leo X “God has given us the papacy we should enjoy it”

    If it is to be – I hope theres some panache, some risk taking and some real policy. All governments keep one eye on re-election and should but there is a greater good or purpose (maybe I am naive) – lets hope KR does grasp that nettle.

  268. 268
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Evening all – who ate the Ace Stenographers narrowing?

  269. 269
    Gaynor
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:39 pm | Permalink

    Let’s be objective here (I know it’s hard to do, bear with me)

    What can the Libs do now? Let’s think from their side….

    National security

    Ditch Howard (not as dumb as it sounds)

    I struggling to think of things…….

    Replace Howard with who? Please tell me.

    I wonder if the tightening of the polls in the past week has jolted the public into fearing that Howard might snatch an unlikely victory.

    58-42 is incredible. Let me repeat, without sounding boring, that Victoria is a potential holocaust for the coalition. Every Liberal seat in metropolitan Melbourne is “in play”. No Liberal MP is safe, except for Petro Georgiou and Greg Hunt.

    Next time you see a QLD or WA state poll that shows the Libs ahead, or about even, consider that this is dragging down a 58-42ish national vote. Then consider what the vote must be in VIC, SA and parts of NSW.

    This election will make 1975 look like a picnic.

  270. 270
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:40 pm | Permalink

    About Galaxy in 2004 – any pollster that had their final poll within the MoE of the election result was equally right.Actually nailing the exact result is simply pulling off a random fluke – the resolution of polling companies in Australia is simply not that good

  271. 271
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:41 pm | Permalink

    Bolt Henderson and George are on lateline. This is fantastic for the Ruddster

  272. 272
    PJK for President
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:42 pm | Permalink

    Well, I’ve added my bit to Piers’ column, but I doubt it will be published. Referring to the author as a “fat, biased bastard” probably will be frowned on by the moderator..

    And, may I add, what a lovely set of numbers…!! I shall ring my volunteers for the 24th with renewed vigour and enthusiasm.

  273. 273
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:43 pm | Permalink

    Actually nailing the exact result is simply pulling off a random fluke - the resolution of polling companies in Australia is simply not that good

    Is this because to run a profitable polling company in Australia you have to keep the sample quite small, and thus keep the margin of error high?

    Or is it it related to the fact there are dense urban areas, and thinly populated rural areas that makes the weighting method crucial?

  274. 274
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Oh oh, Gerard is confused.

    Looks like business as usual

  275. 275
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Just saw the good news YOU BLOODY RIPPER.

  276. 276
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Right wing apologists. Looking for any way out. Any excuse.
    At least Bolt calls like it is. Henderson is an ass

  277. 277
    Fagin
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    Bolt getting stuck into Henderson – gold!!!!!!!

  278. 278
    Future Pollie
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    Gaynor @ 269 –

    All the state polling done in South Australia (Labor’s strongest State apparently) shows a swing somewhere between 5-6%. I have not seen any individual booth polling ANYWHERE in SA that shows trends anywhere near 58-42.

  279. 279
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    Bolt and Henderson are getting stuck into one another. I love it.

  280. 280
    VoterBoy of Over the Water
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:45 pm | Permalink

    what is Bolt saying?

  281. 281
    Dyno
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    Possum,
    Reasonable point about MoEs, however don’t forget that MoE itself is quite an arbitrary concept. We all talk about MoEs that are based on a 95% confidence interval, but in theory you could equally well use 90% or 80% in which case you’d get a lower MoE.
    Commercial and practical reality is that bragging rights go to the company that gets closest, unless the companies’ results are extremely close to each other.

  282. 282
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    The implications of this – even if rogue – are huge.

    Our pathetic, risible, compliant media will now be jostling with unseemly haste for the last yellow rubber dinghy off HMAS Howard.

    Watch them now, gasping and waddling their fat insider Canberra ars*s down the plank, pushing old ladies into to the drink to be first snake to toast the new regime.

    Hey, this is for you, GG, et al: Thanks a pantload for keeping us “informed” lately, losers.

    You know what?

    F*ck you.

  283. 283
    red wombat
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:46 pm | Permalink

    George is saying that having The Gimp next to Howard isn’t working.

  284. 284
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    You leave all that to us, Edward. The Party never makes mistakes, you know that. You just make sure you pack some warm clothes. It’s a long way to Vorkuta.

  285. 285
    blindoptimist
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:47 pm | Permalink

    Outstanding result for Rudd, but even more than this the poll reflects how badly the Liberals have misread the public. Their tax policy was a quite naked attempt to play politics with people’s disposable incomes – something the Liberals are now completely notorious for doing. As if that wasn’t enough, their demeanour last week was generally smart-arsed and occasionally puerile – and completely insulting to the public at large.

    Rudd is a great campaigner, for sure and today’s media-moments were a perfect illustration of this. But the dire problem the Liberals have is themselves are now the root of their problems: this is the basic message of the polls.

    For the public, the Liberals are the problem and Kevin Rudd is the solution.

  286. 286
    turfmeister
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Bolt vs Henderson – they’re eating their own LMAO

  287. 287
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn, its not only their small samples, and their weighting – but the lack of what some professional political pollsters are doing elsewhere in the world at the moment – targeted demographic polling.

    In the US for instance, a lot of work goes into finding which specific groups are swinging and as a result they ’super sample’ those groups and fold it onto their broader polling.

  288. 288
    Ophuph Hucksake
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Spiros @ 246:

    If Rudd started using Lynx body spray, what Effect would that have?

  289. 289
    RGee
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:49 pm | Permalink

    Who the hell is this Gerard Henderson? He’s hopeless…

  290. 290
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Yes, the Libs are a two headed monster biting itself in the arse.
    Bolt is blaming channel nine. Hendersons attacking Ray Martin.
    Channel nine is off the leash since packer has gone. The right wingers are breaking ranks.

  291. 291
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Neo-Cons at ABC? I would think quite the opposite. It is blood sport between Bolt and Henderson. Just into the second week and we see the future of Liberal factionalism.

  292. 292
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    He’s an old DLP type who used to work for Howard.

  293. 293
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    Lol 284 Adam, that was genuinely funny. A sense of humour in victory perhaps?

  294. 294
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Bolt calls it as it is…. You should look at his looney colomns… Bolt is an idoit…

  295. 295
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    245
    Future Pollie Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 10:29 pm

    Before you all rudd-gasm and stain the bedsheets…. The final result is going to be MUCH closer than this latest newspoll suggests. Next week the polls are going to show a shortening again, and headlines of “Howard makes a comeback”.

    Are you sticking by the ‘narrowing gap’ thesis in the face of a Newspoll indicating a pull back the other way Future ?

    You may be right in speculating the next five weeks going to JWH then Rudd then back again so Shanahan can scream “Howard makes a stupendous comeback” again, and maybe again.

    It may be closer, even much closer on election night, but at this stage in the game JWH will have to have at least 2 very big cannon balls to fire before election day to do anything near addressing the very consistent 55+ 2PP Rudd has held, give or take, for 10 MONTHS now.

    Im not saying it is not possible to pull back, but it would make startling election history and my money is on Rudd, comfortably so.

    ESJ, if i may, I suggest you go to your cellar and find a couple of very good bottles of wine and a companion to share it with..the next few days will be rough for those expecting to sky to fall in under a Rudd Government.

    Im not suggesting you are among these doomsdayers, I just think your cellar and a good wine might keep you from hearing the moans and groans at street level on election night if Rudd happens to cross the line in front.

  296. 296
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Bolt vs Henderson - they’re eating their own LMAO

    LOL!

  297. 297
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Dyno – all pollsters in Oz (well the good ones anyway) use a 95% CI, and a large sample in the last week to get bragging rights.

    But in most years, all of them nail the primaries within the MoE, sometimes they differ in preferences – but the pollster that gets closest to the actual results, considering the methodologies they use here – it’s a fluke. It’s a toss of the coin.

  298. 298
    Dyno
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:51 pm | Permalink

    Possum @287,
    I’ve suspected this for a while, our published polling does not really enable any but the most superficial understanding of what it is that makes people swing their votes from one week to the next.

  299. 299
    Tobe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    I see Anthony (way back @ #74), you can put it in the URL. I like the look of 60-40.

    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=12.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1

  300. 300
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    Henderson and Bolt are going at Ray Martin and the Worm. They’re hopeless. Punching at shadows.

  301. 301
    PJK for President
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    Well, if ESJ is to be dispatched to the Gulag I think he should have some company. I reckon we could fill an A-380 in super-economy mode with the various former cabinet ministers, former ABC board members, former heads of Commonwealth departments and other counter-revolutionaries. We can all dream a little…

  302. 302
    judy
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:53 pm | Permalink

    OHHH MY GAWD!!!!!!!! i went out for a couple of hours and came back to this! it may just be an outer but i’m going to enjoy it tonight, worse case scenario we’re back to 55-45 if it’s an outer — but i’m hoping not, this is before the debate reaction is in too, MAMMA MIA!!!! i’m gobsmacked, i’ll need six valium and a hormone patch to help me sleep tonight.

  303. 303
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Hey, this is for you, GG, et al: Thanks a pantload for keeping us “informed” lately, losers.

    You know what?

    F*ck you.

    Lefty E throws down the gauntlet in preparation for a Stanley Brucing of John Howard.

  304. 304
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Henderson is a Liberal party stooge pretending to give in depth independent political ideas. Rubbish. They are blaming the worm again. Even though the poll was finished before the debate.

  305. 305
    Socrates
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    To borrow a phrase from the 2006 US election: Its schardenfreud-licious! :) I really hope they have Downer on Lateline tonight.

    We ought to remember that even well conducted polls can be subject to random variation. If the error of this is say +/-2% then the real result might be 56/44 2PP. Still, that would seem to be about the best interpretation possible for the Liberals on this result. That could mean that either other recent polls were unrealistically good for Howard or Labor’s tax plan has seen a bounce back meaning no gain for the Government. Any gain on top of that from the debate is just gravy. Rudd’s strategy is really working; he just needs to remain disciplined. If anything, Howard loosing his cool may even widen the result IMO.

    If this holds true till election day, all those poor liberal staffers…not a government job to hide in at state or federal level. I wonder how many Liberal lawyers would get real jobs in major law firms?

    What will the reaction be? Fear hasn’t worked (not a Tampa in sight), the interest rate promise has blown their economic credibility, policy was never a strong suit, so.. Let us assume this will put a mob of ruthless unprincipled control freaks into desperate panic mode. I imagine dirt squads are now trawling through every possible misdeed of any Labor figure of the past ten years.

  306. 306
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Bluebottle – It will be French champagne followed by a delicate souffle on election night regardless of the outcome.

    A Rudd victory will be financially beneficial to moi.

    Call me a rogue but I “invested” substantially when the Newspoll was 59-41 and the Liberals panicked.

  307. 307
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    True Dyno – you’ve got to dig into the data a fair bit, and not just the polling data to pull that out. And you have to take in inter-temporal effects – our polling companies dont really do that.But so saying they dont really have to – our entire political polling community is quite unsophisticated compared to other places in the world.

  308. 308
    Dyno
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:55 pm | Permalink

    Possum,
    I know they all use a 95% CI when quoting the MoE, as do most statisticians in most industries, but my point is that 95% is just an arbitrary number – it is used more because of convention than because it is inherently better than any other number.
    But enough of this minutiae! However you look at it tonight is an outstanding result for Rudd.

  309. 309
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Henderson and Bolt are going at Ray Martin and the Worm. They’re hopeless. Punching at shadows.

    WTF? They’ve forgotten that the opposition leader is Kevin Rudd?

  310. 310
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    Well done ESJ, a worthy investment.

  311. 311
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    StanS,

    what?

  312. 312
    DOGS
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    Does this mean Nicole Cornes wins ?

  313. 313
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    I am reminded of a recent quote (from I think, Michael Brissendon -bragging rights?). Paraphrased: if they waited for Keating in 96 with baseball bats, in 07 they are waiting for J-HO with slippers and a nice hot cup of tea.

  314. 314
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Henderson is now rubbishing the polls. He says libs can win on 48.5. What is the deal.

  315. 315
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Make the most of it Edward. This time next year you’ll be selling your gold teeth for turnips.

  316. 316
    Harry 'Snapper' Organs
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    58 Tpp, for goodness sake. Let it be so. Lateline is so amusing as some of the apologists for the LNP try, unbelievably, to claw it back.

  317. 317
    turfmeister
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:58 pm | Permalink

    Gerard Henderson – the eternal (half-hearted?) optimist

  318. 318
    blindoptimist
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Possum,

    Your reassurances last week on the lib tax policy were spot on, it seems. The liberals and their cheerleaders were delusional afterall…:)

  319. 319
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    No Gerard – the polls are consistent.For 60 polls worth of consistency.It’s just the deluded knobjockeys like you that cant understand stats 101 that look confused.

    Fair dinkum

  320. 320
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    Counting nine months forward from tonight I wonder how many lefties and right wing Labor voters will be sporned this very evening on the back of that 58-42 Newspoll: not that we leftards need an excuse to defer our most basic instincts: replenish or perish !!

  321. 321
    Peter Kemp
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:00 pm | Permalink

    Shorter Hendo: The polls are not consistent.

    (Doesn’t understand it all, poor man)

  322. 322
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Bolt is right again, nothing positive coming out of camp liberal. Tony Jones is enjoying himself he is laughing at Costello’s stupid tax cut attacks. They are desperate.

  323. 323
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:02 pm | Permalink

    Bolt is at least trying to face reality. Henderson is in denial. Good point made though that people don’t dislike Howard, they just don’t care about him anymore. They’ve turned off and aren’t even listening to him anymore. That’s going to be a very difficult thing to turn around.

  324. 324
    KT
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Can we please see some amusing lefty journalists on Lateline for a change?

    And I know this is an outlier, but oh so fun ;)

  325. 325
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    the Honeymoon continues

  326. 326
    charles
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Just remember folks that the error is 3%, that all the results for the last 7 months could have been achieved by taking multiple independent samples on the same day from a population with a real voting intention around 56%.

    Boy is this result going to entertaining.

    Labor 30+ seats.

  327. 327
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    Henderson needs to retire to the smoking room with his hero JWH.

    that performance was totally embarrassing.

    TJones was treating the discussions as a joke.

  328. 328
    oakeshott country
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:03 pm | Permalink

    For EStj

    Brünnhildes:
    Fliegt heim, ihr Raben!
    Raunt es eurem Herren,
    was hier am Rhein ihr gehört!
    An Brünnhildes Felsen
    fahrt vorbei! -
    Der dort noch lodert,
    weiset Loge nach Walhall!
    Denn der Götter Ende
    dämmert nun auf.
    So – werf’ ich den Brand
    in Walhalls prangende Burg.

    Fly home, you ravens!
    Recount to your master
    what you have heard here by the Rhine!
    Pass
    by Brünnhilde’s rock:
    direct Loge, who still
    blazes there, to Valhalla;
    for the end of the gods
    is nigh.
    Thus do I throw this torch
    at Valhalla’s vaulting towers

    The final act of Götterdämmerung (and 16.5 hours of Opera)

  329. 329
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Blindy at 318 – it was my pleasure to sooth your doubts

  330. 330
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    OK I’m going back to filling out fake postal votes now.
    *vanishes in puff of improbability*

  331. 331
    Dyno
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Yep,
    Polls are consistent.
    60 polls in a row (or whatever it is) with the lowest Labor 2PP being 53, and most 55 or more.
    Chances of Labor being 52 or lower (which is what the Libs need to have any chance whatsoever) must be considered remote, unless all polls are systemically missing something.
    Question to the psephologists: have the polls ever all been grossly wrong? Someone told me it happened when John Major was re-elected in 1992, is that right?

  332. 332
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Bolt is at least trying to face reality. Henderson is in denial. Good point made though that people don’t dislike Howard, they just don’t care about him anymore. They’ve turned off and aren’t even listening to him anymore. That’s going to be a very difficult thing to turn around.

    My take is that politicians all have an expiry date. There are no invincibles – Menzies doesn’t count, becuase he didn’t face a credible opposition.

    Look what happened to Keating, he was treasurer for nearly 8 years, and the voters gave him ‘93 because Hewson was a goose. But that didn’t mean they weren’t willing to cut him down 3 years later.

    Howard just doesn’t get it, it seems that he honestly believes his own hype, and doesn’t realise that it is actually just spin bought from Crosby-Textor.

  333. 333
    Listy
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:04 pm | Permalink

    Evening all …

    For those of you wondering about SA polling (there’s a few comments in this thread I see), I got polled by the Advertiser tonight – for the seat of Hindmarsh. The results will presumably be in tomorrows ’tiser (or Wed.) I guess this will round out the Advertisers polling of SA marginals.
    they rang me at about 6pm (SA time), asked me who my 1st preference would be, who it was in 2004, how likely I would be to change my vote & finally my age demographic. That was all & it took no more than 2 minutes.
    cheers,

  334. 334
    blindoptimist
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    I’m much obliged.

  335. 335
    imacca
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    Rudd: “What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women. …”

    Just heard the result. Not over yet but what a nice set of numbers!!!

  336. 336
    Graham
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:05 pm | Permalink

    I’m sitting here in Malaysia on a business trip and I am stoked by this news. The worst bit is that mt wife texted to say that my Kevin07 teeshirt has arrived in the post today and I can’t wear it for two weeks!

  337. 337
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    312
    DOGS Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 10:57 pm
    Does this mean Nicole Cornes wins ?

    As Adam has pointed out before DOGS, yes even the most hopeless candidate can score a seat on the back of a State wide swing where seats you would logically think impossible to gain fall like dominoes, it has precedent.

    I just hope she can learn to do some actual research before she gives her maiden speech in the HOR IF she is lucky enough to ride the wave into Parliament House.

  338. 338
    uncle H
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    So what was all that carry on about ALP losing all it’s marginal seats in WA??

  339. 339
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    First thing, the scandal over worm gate is not included. Second thing the ALP/Unions haven’t launched their massive advertising campaign yet. This will blow out even further. Just wait. The last two weeks are when it starts. You ain’t seen nothin yet.

  340. 340
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:06 pm | Permalink

    Yes Adam, Glen’s off burying some money in a jar, in preparation for the peasant economy to follow.

    Incentivation 08: “I used to milk cow, now I OWN cow!”

  341. 341
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    ‘ I “invested” substantially ‘

    Edward,

    You gave me grief the other day when all I did was mention the betting markets and it turns out you are betting “substantially”. A little hypercritical of you. Looks like it turns out that you’re the one who is mesmerised by money.

  342. 342
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    Second thing the ALP/Unions haven’t launched their massive advertising campaign yet

    Do you think Labor will start negative adverts? Why bother if the polls stay this good!?

  343. 343
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    OMFG! I’m shocked! This is the best the Rodent and Captain Smirky can get out of their supposed wonderous tax policy? LMAO
    I’m too afraid to believe this. If this is the actual election result, the Coalition will be decimated to something like 30 seats. Even Lard Arse Hockey would lose if this sort of swing was replicated.
    So, will there be renewed mutterings tomorrow about Howard’s leadership? The problem for them is that Costello would probably do even worse.
    Coalition: screwed!
    P.S: Glen is strangely absent, has been so since last night! I guess it’s all too depressing for him LOL

  344. 344
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn,

    When the next “narrowing” occurs, Labor will crank up its negative advertising. That said, it seems that Labor (or the ACTU) have started running some negative advertising today already.

  345. 345
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:09 pm | Permalink

    Oh, quite GG: thats the other clar implicaiton of fat Rudd polls at this point: the Stanley comes home to Bruce.

    Bennelong time coming!

  346. 346
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Dyno – using the type of polling done in Australia, the polls that I’m aware of have never been as wrong as is required to be for the Coalition to be in a leading position.

    That’s not to say that things cant change – they always can, but the longer the polls go on, obviously the less likely that is to happen.

    This 58-42 is just business as usual, as its been since February, with a long run mean ALP vote of 56-57.

  347. 347
    CL de Footscray
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Well, the dead rat did bounce for a minute or so, before twtiching once or twice and going to sleep (in the biblical sense). I was happy before but after Lateline’s discussion between Henderson, Megalogenis and Bolt I thought I’d died and gone to heaven. Bolt and Henderson at each other. Henderson says the polls are inconsistent, and Galaxy had the coalition close to a win. Maybe someone sold him some of that stuff Costello was using on Sunday morning. Henderson particularly doesn’t get it at all. People have had enough of Howard – he’s offended enough people via wedges and the rest of it to construct his very own anti-Howard coalition – which seems to have a s$%tload of libs in it, as well as the rest of us. Kennett managed the same trick in Victoria, although he did it more quickly, since we’re all Bolsheviks down here.

    I should have ordered the Moet last week (although it now appears that I’ll have to burn the house down after I’ve drunk it in order to satisfy traditional mores).

    Has anyone ever sacked the leader in the middle of an election before? That would be fun!

    Possum should also be fun tomorrow.

    As an esteemed Coogee dweller just pointed out to me, imagine what’s going to happen to the Libs once the election is lost. It will be ugly. BTW – where’s Dolly and the rest of talented front bench been this last few days? Is there anyone left who doesn’t send the worm south?

  348. 348
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Dyno @331 – a maths/philosophical point – the polls are historical. All things being equal K-RUD is a shoe-in. But quote Donald Rumsfeld, ” We don’t know what we don’t know”. Think Tampa. Think 9-11. I am not saying that these things will happen again, but mathematical prediction relies on the future being much like the past. We should all have a Zen moment, take a breath, and then look at the facts as they are. The future is predictable but essentially unknown.

  349. 349
    Aussieguru01
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Hi ESJ,
    Sir, I suggest that you put your money where your mouth is & REDEEM yourself. Recant all this right wing tripe that you have espoused in your daily blog & come to the forces of ‘the light’ & leave the darkness behind.
    I once mention that you really want to vote Labor & deep down I know you will….all will be forgiven, REPENT for the kingdom of heaven is at hand.
    Your road to Damascus is HERE!!

  350. 350
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    I did say Zen? Not Senior?

  351. 351
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Well I always thought General Dennikin was an underated figure in Russian history. Someone has to be there for the counter-revolution.

  352. 352
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Labor doesn’t need to go negative. Leave the anti Workchoices ads to the ACTU. Rudd needs to stay positive on education, child care, climate change etc. That’s what won him the debate last night, his optimism about the future in comparison to the Rodent’s carping and blatant personal attacks.

  353. 353
    Gaynor
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:11 pm | Permalink

    Future pollie #278

    All the state polling done in South Australia (Labor’s strongest State apparently) shows a swing somewhere between 5-6%. I have not seen any individual booth polling ANYWHERE in SA that shows trends anywhere near 58-42.

    I agree, but SA is better than WA or QLD.

    Newspoll state breakdowns in NSW had it 61-39. Victoria was 60-40.

    But forget the polls. Why on earth is Kevin Rudd visiting electorates like Casey, Aston & Goldstein? These seats aren’t just safe, they are heartland. Socio-economic upper-middle class electors that, under normal circumstances, will never vote Labor.

    The anecdotal evidence is compelling. The Liberals are stuffed.

  354. 354
    Winston
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    This result should restore any lost faith in the judgement of the Australian public.

    Most of the time (on average) they get it right.

  355. 355
    turfmeister
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    Glen is out getting a tattoo which says: “Such Is Life”

  356. 356
    Swing Lowe
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:12 pm | Permalink

    For a quick update on betting markets,

    Centrebet is now out to $1.50/$2.60 (from $1.58)
    Portlandbet is out to $1.50/$2.60 (from $1.60)
    Sportingbet is out to $1.50/$2.55 (from $1.60)

    These have all moved out in the last couple of hours.

  357. 357
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    Oh, quite GG: thats the other clar implicaiton of fat Rudd polls at this point: the Stanley comes home to Bruce.

    Bennelong time coming!

    LOL! :-P STOP IT!

  358. 358
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    Henderson is foundering, lost

  359. 359
    Generic Person
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    Tonight’s Lateline was quite lively.

    I think Henderson and Bolt’s assessment of Ray Martin’s performance was absolutely correct. Channel 9 should be ashamed of their woeful incompetence.

  360. 360
    Socrates
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:13 pm | Permalink

    OK I’ve just started watching Lateline (30 minutes later in Adelaide) and not a Downer in sight, hehehe. Does anyone think the Australian would have tipped them off? I can’t imagine Liberals would have been queueing up to front TV tonight with these figures to discuss.

    Gerard Henderson’s concerned look is trully touching. He is a kindly old figure – the voters just haven’t thought things through…

    BTW, since this means that my vote in Sturt might count for something after all (career change for Chris Pyne), does anyone know if this would tip Downer out? Then mt joy would be complete.

  361. 361
    Pi
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:14 pm | Permalink

    Probably the upper side of the band, but still reckon the actual distribution is 56/44.

  362. 362
    turfmeister
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    @356

    that should Labor has shortened, not out to. “Out to” implies a lengthening of odds.

  363. 363
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    I think Henderson and Bolt’s assessment of Ray Martin’s performance was absolutely correct. Channel 9 should be ashamed of their woeful incompetence.

    HAHHAHAHHAH! When are you leaving for Burma / Cuba / North Korea?

  364. 364
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    AG01

    It is too late for me my son.

  365. 365
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    Yeah, to be realistic, the best result Labor can achieve is probably more like 55:45. The swing won’t be uniform either: you might find some huge swings in supposedly safer Coalition seats, but smaller swings to the ALP in very marginal seats?
    Better not to get too cocky: remember another Tampa or 9/11 could be round the corner. I’m sure Kevin Rudd is smart enough not to get complacent.
    However, all this is very heartening to the average Labor supporter.

  366. 366
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:15 pm | Permalink

    Henderson went too far. We all know where his allegiences lie, but calling black ‘white’ just makes him look completely ludicrous.

    Also, is it just me, or has falling in with the Insight crowd civilised the Bolter somewhat?

  367. 367
    DOGS
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    Bluebottle if she makes to HOR hope she still got the nice little frock showing the belly.

  368. 368
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    306
    Edward StJohn Says:
    Call me a rogue but I “invested” substantially when the Newspoll was 59-41 and the Liberals panicked.

    So political ideology really comes second to the cash? A true opportunistic capitalist at heart. ;)

  369. 369
    Leinad
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:16 pm | Permalink

    ESJ: anything from the Senator? I’ve got a hankering for some counter-revolutionary disinfo (don’t tell the Party!)…

  370. 370
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    344
    Swing Lowe Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 11:09 pm
    ShowsOn,

    When the next “narrowing” occurs, Labor will crank up its negative advertising. That said, it seems that Labor (or the ACTU) have started running some negative advertising today already.

    I am told the Worchoices issue will get plenty of Labor Party attention in television advertising is due course..depending on which State you are sitting in ShowsOn. Here in QLD the focus will be different to that in NSW and different again in SA etc ect. but Workchoices is the trump card.

  371. 371
    Generic Person
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    No 363

    The issue was not the worm. But the fact that Martin was accusing the ABC and the Liberal Party of misdemeanour without evidence is pompous and indicative of an underlying agenda.

  372. 372
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Rudd was campaigning today in Robertson(N.S.W Central Coast).
    Perhaps even the despised Belinda Neal has a chance of winning?

  373. 373
    oakeshott country
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:17 pm | Permalink

    Henderson is a failed Jesuit – I don’t know which particular vice led to his failure

  374. 374
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    Make no mistake: Lib Ministers will be falling like 9 pins on the 24th.

    No one is safe, not even Downer.

  375. 375
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    Bluebottle – in due SEASON.

  376. 376
    Dangerous
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:18 pm | Permalink

    In response to Dyno (331)…

    The UK election of 1992 was my first as a voter, so I remember it rather well – wikipedia says this about the opinion polls…

    With opinion polls at the end of the campaign showing Labour and Conservative neck and neck, the actual election result was a surprise to many in the media and in polling organisations. The apparent failure of the opinion polls to come close to predicting the actual result led to an inquiry by the Market Research Society. Following the election, most opinion polling companies changed their methodology in the belief that a ‘Shy Tory Factor’ affected the polling.

    In other words, people didn’t want to admit that they were going to vote Tory. That said, there was a fair bit of movement in the polls during the campaign (eight days before the election Labour was well ahead, for example), so perhaps the tight victory for the Tories was not that surprising.

    I was walking in the Lake District that day (I’d voted by post), and remember turning on the election broadcast to be told that the exit poll predicted a hung parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. Apparently that was my ‘Don’s party’ moment – but at least I got to enjoy 1997!

  377. 377
    VoterBoy of Over the Water
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    Just typed in Possum’s average into Antony Green’s calculator, and found myself asking the question: Who was Stanley Melbourne Bruce’s Treasurer?

    No wonder Howard and Co are so uptight about the proper teaching of Australian histories in schools. They’re about to be part of it.

  378. 378
    Sinic
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:19 pm | Permalink

    I emailed Kevin Rudd a few days ago with some suggestions for turning around his initial disappointing week. Just got the reply from his office…I am glad to see that he followed my advice, which runs anlong the lines of what many have been suggesting that he do in this blog.

  379. 379
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    Don’t rule out a further boost from the debate – though it is difficult to concieve. Unlike previous debates there were two factors which were unique, awful for the libs and got lots of traction in the press: the censoring of the worm and the big dumb smirk and lord Downer sitting in the front row interjecting. I think this alone will consolidate this lead in the next poll.

  380. 380
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    i think we now know why Andrew Robb was so dishevelled and completely wacky on Sky in the lead-up to the debate.

    10% margin in Lib heartland Goldstein….Rudd is campaigning there….this doofus Robb is gonna look a fool on the 24th.

    could tell by his body language and his inanity on Sunday that he was a desperate man.

  381. 381
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    I think Kevin should ask for an extension of the poll date. Do them slowly. FIve weeks to decimation is just not long enough for me. Implosion imminent. No wonder Howard looked so grumpy last night.

  382. 382
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    With primaries of 51/38 (thanks to the polling results machine Martin from my blog), it’s THAT figure that will send shivers through the Libs, particularly since ACN has the ALP primary at 48. That’s only a 3 point difference, but where the 48 represents the probable low point of the ALP primary (usual caveats apply) as the Libs jumped the gun and pump primed momentum with the tax policy.

  383. 383
    the munz of mosman
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    371 Martin seemed to have plenty of evidence and there is no doubt that it was all done to protect JWH.

  384. 384
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Oakeshott,

    So many sins to choose from. Which one of the 7 “deadlies” do most politicians succumb to?

    Paul K,

    Very uncouth, gambling is for the common people.

    Just Me,

    Yes certain things are a good bet, eg childcare companies for instance.

  385. 385
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    Bolt just wants to be able to say “There I told you so. Youse should have given Howard the flick, installed my little mate Pete and called the election straight away.”

    He’ll dine out on it for years.

  386. 386
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:21 pm | Permalink

    and Joe Hockey was throwing out pork in North Sydney the other day lol

    good on ya Joe…you big bear you

  387. 387
    Generic Person
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    But the fallacy of Bolt’s argument is that discarding Howard weeks before an election is potential suicide.

  388. 388
    Slain
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Hope is the first step along the road to disappointment, Labor win on the day then I’ll believe it. A third on my life haunted by a manic Mr Sheen, god I hope it’s about to end :)

  389. 389
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Worchoices , aha, try WorkChoices.

    Anyway, I am hoping the last week of Labor advertising will be ALL positive messages about Labor’s policy and the nitty gritty of how it will directly help the family budget [childcare, petrol, mortgages, housing crisis,wage/rights for workers]and climate change, Iraq and Indigenous Affairs for the ‘wet’ liberals.

  390. 390
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    384
    Edward StJohn Says:
    Yes certain things are a good bet, eg childcare companies for instance.

    Indeed, as are funeral companies. :)

  391. 391
    Derek Corbett
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Settle down. Fat ladies don’t sing unless prodded, in my experience.

  392. 392
    BaztheSpaz
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Labor’s found a way to ’stack’ Newspoll, if this is pre-Debate. I’ll take MOE anytime, after what appeared to be a pretty ordinary first week of campaign for KRudd.
    Maybe punters rejected Rodent’s bribe, but bought Kevvie’s alternative. Must be the tax policy, with Labor ’spinning it’ to education and broadband for ‘working families’. Right on message.
    Nothing like a touch of ‘class war’ against the over-$180K- and what about Kevvie’s line that ‘it doesn’t matter to Howard and Me’, we get better than $180K, but what about you poor punters!! Beautiful!
    Well I just found another 3 Billion to throw at you for the same total price tag as the Rodent!
    Rudd ought to be drug tested to see if Julia’s given him some Go Juice! If it was a horse race the stewards would call in the bookie’s sheets and seriously question ALP’s previous poor run!
    The Faithful just wanted to see a bit of ‘mongrel’ from Kevvie and the ‘great’ debate had just enough where he needed it, especially to withstand the Smirk & Dolly Downer heckling! Thought they were in question time, controlling the proceedings, the Born to Rule dickheads!
    You’ve got ‘ticker’ Kevvie – it’s these second-rate pretenders in Team Rodent that have no ‘ticker’, behaving like the errant schoolboys they really are!
    If the Libs were a horse, the Equine Flu would have them barking like the rabid dogs they are! It’s time for them to be put out of their misery!Not even Percy Sykes in his heyday could save them!
    Now Rudd can afford to take time for careful aim at the next target ( good on you John Faulkner, they said you were in the ‘lockup’ with Kevvie – the debate strategy showed your involvement).
    But to change the subject…..
    Saw Julia up close tonight – no wonder the young boys love her – very stylish and hair just right ( thanks Mr Mathieson). Yes I know it’s sexist piggery, but what do the ‘great unwashed’ vote on? – my young spy says she’s a h…bag and he seems to be very connected to youth culture, so Team Rodent better hope they succeeded in cutting heaps of kiddies off the electoral roll.
    Some are just so disengaged from politics that they don’t enrol. Add those who don’t want to be found who inhabit the ‘cash economy’ or into drugs etc. and it could add up to a big loss of votes for Labor. If the 18-25’s go 70/30 to Labor, it might have been the cleverest ( and nearly the dirtiest) trick Rodent has pulled. Thanks Senator Abetz, if you are the one who thought of it first! Another outrageous assault on democracy!

  393. 393
    Gaynor
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    If the Liberals are throwing pork in North Sydney then they must be in diabolical strife.

    What about those two bible bashers in Hughes & Greenway. Are they safe?

  394. 394
    Edward StJohn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Yes Just Me you could question how canny TR was in selling out of job placement too!

  395. 395
    PJK for President
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    Henderson is a failed Jesuit – I don’t know which particular vice led to his failure

    Perhaps it involved a young abbot and former jesuit? Oops..

  396. 396
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:24 pm | Permalink

    371 Martin seemed to have plenty of evidence and there is no doubt that it was all done to protect JWH.

    ACA/Nine showed the SMS complete with mobile number of the sender, and the behind the scenes footage on both 9/ABC is telling as well- seeing Mike Reilly on the phone before warning Nine over the intercom proves he was speaking to Lib HQ.

    Also KUdos to nine for going to Sky’s off air feed, if they pulled that, they would’ve effectively blacked out the debate to EVERYONE.

    And that would’ve made Howard look even more stupid.

  397. 397
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    I’m still with LTEP. The memory of ‘98 is still scorched deep in my mind. I won’t be happy until I see the rodent kicked out.

  398. 398
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    #391
    Derek Corbett Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 11:23 pm

    Settle down. Fat ladies don’t sing...

    .
    .
    Amanda Vanstone isn’t even in Australia at the moment.

  399. 399
    the munz of mosman
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    If the odds were right, a few bob on the Libs changing horses might be worth it.

  400. 400
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    So Bolty’s crossing the Rhine, huh?

    What say, chaps and chappettes….Is there a case for ‘extraordinary rendition’ to the Russian quarter?

  401. 401
    paladin
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Even Tony was mentioning the Rodent’s facial twitchiness.

    Ding Dong the witch is dead :)

  402. 402
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    To the argument that Ray has no right to be accusing the Liberals of pulling the feed – what utter garbage! If this is a moral argument about democracy he is totally within his rights to come to that conclusion. If the little man chose not to make silly rules and wedge himself he’d have been ok. Howard’s unsound rules gave him what he deserved. The Liberals (only) wanted no worm, someone attempted to cut off the worm, ergo…

  403. 403
    Generic Person
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    No 392

    Wrong. Why would they bother spending millions in Griffith, the seat of Kevin Rudd?

  404. 404
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    Dangerous @ 376 makes some good points. It over yet but:

    - we have compulsory voting
    - Rudd ain’t the Welsh Windbag
    - The Hun ain’t The Sun

  405. 405
    Hugo
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Those numbers will be a killer for Howard – it is really starting to look like the game is over for him. Of course, there’s still a few weeks to go, anything could happen – but what? It would have to be something like left field (like a terrorist attack) and even then, he couldn’t be sure that would necessarily work for him politically. Their other hope is some sort of major stumble from Rudd, but frankly, Howard looks much more likely to slip up. Throw in a rate rise early next month and there will be a domolition on 24 November. My guess at the moment is Labor winning about 30 seats.

  406. 406
    The Doctor
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:27 pm | Permalink

    Possum,
    I would other pollsters around the English speaking world have it easier since they are looking at voluntary FPTP voting; I suspect compulsory preferential voting makes things a bit harder – after all in FPTP situations you do not have to estimate Two Party Preferred, the ‘primary’ votes suffice.

  407. 407
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll, Galaxy and Morgan are all rubbish. AC Nielsen is the poll to watch.

    Still, it will be fun to watch the Libs run around like headless chooks for a few days…

  408. 408
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    If I was a casting agent for, say, Dickens plays, I’d go out of my way to get Henderson to play Scrooge. He is utterly humourless.

  409. 409
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:29 pm | Permalink

    People who act like you all have when a poll goes their way have shown their side of politics does not deserve to govern one iota…there is still 5 more weeks of the election to go more than enough time for Krudd to implode so i wouldnt start celebrating just yet your HUBRIS has been disgraceful utterly disgraceful…

  410. 410
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    Doc – you’re spot on!

  411. 411
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:30 pm | Permalink

    394
    Edward StJohn Says:
    Yes Just Me you could question how canny TR was in selling out of job placement too!

    Only in Australia. And only for the legitimate reason of avoiding conflicts of interest for her hubby.

  412. 412
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Glen and HUBRIS are back.

  413. 413
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Come on Glen, come across with the Bolter! His shoulder twitch bit was pretty funny.

  414. 414
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    Bolt, Henderson, Megalogenis – The Weirdest Brady Bunch

    (Pity Henderson was live in the studio)

  415. 415
    Bob from Bonner
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    A beautiful set of figures!!!!!!!!!

  416. 416
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    No Paul the Hubris started on post 1 some sanity has arrived…me!

  417. 417
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Hey, Glen’s back!

    HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS

    I think that will cover the next 24 hours.

  418. 418
    Ricky
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Hooray! Glen is back!

    I believe denial is the first stage, and anger the second.

    Anyway, tremendous result for the ALP. And I do agree with Glen: Kevvy, don’t let him go. He IS a clever, cunning politician. He’s also got an impossible work ethic and he’s tough as nails.

    Don’t let him go – don’t keep pushing for victory for even a second. We can’t risk anything.

  419. 419
    PJK for President
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Glen is missing some keys on his computer. Would whoever stole them please return them to him c/o the Liberal Party.

  420. 420
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Glen Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 11:29 pm
    People who act like you all have when a poll goes their way have shown their side of politics does not deserve to govern one iota…there is still 5 more weeks of the election to go more than enough time for Krudd to implode so i wouldnt start celebrating just yet your HUBRIS has been disgraceful utterly disgraceful…

    Hi, what’s the current interest rate, and 2pp Newspoll breakdown?

  421. 421
    Generic Person
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    No 412

    The remarkable hubris from ALP apologists is quite pathetic. They only seem to trust the polls when it goes there way. If there’s turn in favour of the coalition, it is mere statistical error. If in favour of the ALP, it is a crushing victory.

    Hmmm. Hypocrisy and double standards continue.

  422. 422
    nath
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    Glen. what happened to Wenck?

  423. 423
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    This is not one poll Glen it is sixty of them. The Krudd is steady.

  424. 424
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    @ 403 Generic Person Says (some what hubristically)

    Wrong. Why would they bother spending millions in Griffith, the seat of Kevin Rudd?

    Well one drop in on an electorate by the PM does not a marginal make. I think the Libs just might thnink that spending a bit there will keep Kevvie at home for a bit. It’s a payback for the unsporting anount of grief the ALP have given the Libs in your backyard, Bennelong.

  425. 425
    HarryH
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    who looks more dead?

    henderson or ruddock

  426. 426
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    Howard is pathetic! Today’s slogan: the ALP front bench is 70% dominated by evil union bosses blah blah blah
    I predict the Liberals will go even more negative, they’ll probably have Young Liberals trawling through the Rudd family’s garbage bin.
    I remember the 1997 UK Election, which I watched on BBC World. The swing to Tony Blair was so great, the Conservatives were losing seats with 20-30% margins. Michael Portilo for instance lost an ultra safe Tory seat in Enfield, London. The same thing could possibly happen here in 2007, a string of Coalition ministers are out, although not Phil Ruddock: the revolution will really have come if Labor ever wins my seat of Berowra.

  427. 427
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:33 pm | Permalink

    On a particularly important matter – what’s with that jacket Bolt had on? Off to some garden party or something? Insipid really – like these numbers for the libs.

  428. 428
    Gary Bruce
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Glen (409) – Does anyone remember Glen and his mates carrying on like a pork chops when the Galaxy poll came out recently? What is that other word staring with ‘h’ again?

  429. 429
    Mark
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    For all you non-Sydneysiders Gerard Henderson is the Executive director of the Sydney institute. It is is neo-con think thank http://www.thesydneyinstitute.com.au/

    Don’t be fooled by the photo of Julia. Henderson wrote the authorised history of the liberal party and is working on Johhny’s History project for high schools. He writes a column for the SMH and is an all round Howard Stooge. I think he was a staffer somewhere too…Adam probably knows where.

  430. 430
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    HH – good point. I might get them both to audition.

  431. 431
    Derek Corbett
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Dave from Albury

    Yes. It’s the declaration of the poll. In your seat. Usually on a Saturday, a small group. The returning officer declares the result of the poll. Then – and only then – can one say the deed is done.

    cheers

  432. 432
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Henderson was Howard’s speechwriter at one point.

  433. 433
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:35 pm | Permalink

    Mark, was I believe he was an advisor to Howard too?

  434. 434
    Dangerous
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Am I right in thinking at the preferential voting system accentuates swing? That is, in a FPTP election, votes can be wasted (in that the winner need not gain 50% of the votes), whereas here one must (eventually) state a preference. Therefore, if a swing is on, it is amplified by the system.

    Or am I talking rubbish?

  435. 435
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    The remarkable hubris from ALP apologists is quite pathetic. They only seem to trust the polls when it goes there way. If there’s turn in favour of the coalition, it is mere statistical error. If in favour of the ALP, it is a crushing victory.

    Hmmm. Hypocrisy and double standards continue.

    EXACTLY! It seems you’ll have to go to North Korea, Burma, or Cuba.

  436. 436
    Mark
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:36 pm | Permalink

    Burgey @ 427 I think Bolt borrowed it from Richie Benaud.

  437. 437
    Generic Person
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    No 429

    If you’re implying that rabid left wing influences are more preferable, then I wholly disagree.

    The mission statements and assessments of state education departments indicate that education serves as a primary vehicle for social change, rather than learning. Ridiculous.

  438. 438
    Ashley
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Holy crap.

    51 to 38 on primaries.

    That’s gotta hurt.

  439. 439
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    That jacket was more Willy Wonka than Richie I think.

  440. 440
    oakeshott country
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:37 pm | Permalink

    Dr Earle Grafton Christmas Page was Stanley Bruce’s treasurer, He was also DeputyPM, leader of the Country Party and member for Cowper.

    From the hints going round I think Abbott’s big health announcement will be paying hospitals on a fee for service basis through local trusts. This is the basic concept of the English National Health, which is known for it’s petty squables, enormous beaurocracy and the 2nd worst level of Health care in the EU. Of course the Poms don’t complain much because it is free at the point of service

    Soon we will be able to say Tony “fee for service” Abbott

  441. 441
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Generic Person,

    Hard to swim against the tide isn’t it?

  442. 442
    El Nino
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    # 360 – re: Chris Pyne career change – I don’t know whether to think “Singing Detective” or “Blue Velvet”.

  443. 443
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    Having one post to say YOU BEWDY does not constitute Hubris having 10 or 15 posts all saying that is Hubris Gary you twit…there is a difference but hey…

  444. 444
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:38 pm | Permalink

    438
    Ashley Says:
    Holy crap.
    51 to 38 on primaries.

    See, I told you not to panic.

  445. 445
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    Labor does not need to go with anything negative if the polls stand up. Why break a working machine with something that will bring uncertain results? Negative has proved negative for the LNP – it should be a lesson to Labor.

    People have been following Kev strongly from the very begining because he was positive, future, positive and avoided every opportunity to engage in anything negative.

    The do need to have make sure they keep planning to get every single vote and every single seat that they can. Keeping in mind a possible future DD.

  446. 446
    womble
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    Great poll but a long way to go, $20 billion to spend – can’t imagine, although it would be fantastic, that this will be the margin at the election.

    The other worry for mine is Bush has an itchy trigger finger with Iran in his sights – when will he go??? (and i really hope he doesn’t) he is desperate as well. Any chance Howard is egging him on to do it in the next 4 weeks???

    In the mean time, can relax a bit after last weeks Galaxy poll and the nerves that generated.

    Sweet dreams of victory tonight :)

  447. 447
    Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    360 - re: Chris Pyne career change - I don’t know whether to think “Singing Detective” or “Blue Velvet”.

    Nah, he already has a backup gig – He’s the Flight Centre Pilot :-)

    http://www.flightcentre.com.au :-)

  448. 448
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:39 pm | Permalink

    Generic Person
    Granny Smith would be rolling in her grave in Bennelong. Howard strikes at the heart of workers. He would dismantle every shred of job security and eradicate every workers rights. 2% is a statistical error. I would have given you the number if the following polling showed last weeks result, but it did not. It went back to the original gap which had preceded it and had started over 12 months ago.

  449. 449
    onimod
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    427 Burgey
    Exactly – what was that?
    Is that sort of thing fashionable in South Africa at the moment?
    Kudos for not looking or sounding like the rest of them though…I hear there’s a shortage of pinstripe as a result of a recent market plunge……

  450. 450
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    Glen, I give you points for not running away and hiding. You’re totally outnumbered here, but it takes guts to keep fronting up.
    Mate, embrace the magic, jump ship and join us on Team Rudd.
    You’re a smart bloke, I think you know in your heart of hearts that the Coalition are dead in the water.

  451. 451
    Boll
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    We all know Richie doesn`t stir from the (admittedly wide-ranging)possibilities of the white/off-white/cream/ivory or the beige.

  452. 452
    Dangerous
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:41 pm | Permalink

    447 – that’s right! I knew I’d seen him somewhere before…

  453. 453
    Mark
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    BTW The Sydney Institute was where Howard did his “symbolism” speech on Reconciliation and Sol Lebevic (speeling) talked about the “soft” Labor vote and where Hugh Mc Kay said the polls were reflecting Australians waking up from a long sleep.

  454. 454
    The Doctor
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    Imacca,
    “What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women. …”

    That is a quote from the Iliad isn’t it.

    So is Rudd the Trojan Horse??

  455. 455
    Generic Person
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    No 441

    The usual anti-Howard tirade on online blogs is irrelevant.

  456. 456
    barney
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    In the latter years of the Hawke/Keating era Henderson took a course of reasonable pills for a while but like a person brought up as a Jesuit he’s reverted to dogma as he approaches the end of his life.

    And he is probably the most precious commentator I have ever seen. His skin is gossamer thin.

  457. 457
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:43 pm | Permalink

    Ruddock is the Sith Lord.

  458. 458
    Bluebottle
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    I can’t wait to see how Shanahan spins this 58-42 2PP poll in the GG tomorrow morning.

    Maybe he will do what others have done and try to draw attention away from the actual debate result to the childish shrill of the National Pretenders Club having a la la about the ‘legality’ or otherwise of the worm {BRING BACK THE WORM} and Ray Fartin defending the ‘good name’ of channel eddy or parrot Costellos ‘hole’ in the Swan tax package.

    Anything to distract the punter away from reality and give the GG some hope of flogging a few more ‘gap narrows’ newspapers before election day.

    If JWH can get back from here I will tip my hat to a bloody genius [political] and get very drunk on the Yarra River with my clumsy brother.

  459. 459
    Just Me
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    So is Rudd the Trojan Horse??

    No. Bhuddha, Sun Tzu, and Tintin rolled into one.

  460. 460
    John of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:44 pm | Permalink

    Bummer :-(

    Not happy Jan!

  461. 461
    Matt
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Poor William will be hoping for some Narrowing after this…..great polls for the ALP are horrible for his bandwidth.

  462. 462
    RGee
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    The Doctor @ 454 … Close, but no. It’s from Conan the Barbarian.

  463. 463
    Burgey
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    GP @ 421 – I can’t speak for anyone else, but for me it isn’t hubris, it’s that after 11 long years we’ve had 10 months of polls which have given us hope, and now everytime there’s a poll I for one await it with trepidation.

    So when Labor gets good numbers it’s a kind of joyous relief that things haven’t turned like the media have been saying they would.

    I can’t recall Labor having an election campaign poll number this high – ever. Are there records going back to 1983? That might be the only campaign which may have gone close to a number like this.

  464. 464
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    HH one would be a fool to believe the Coalition cannot win from here but one would also be a fool for thinking the Coalition can win if it remains this far behind in the polls i am a realist and i understand it is harder for us to win a 5th term than for Labor to win so the odds are stacked against us and unless Howard can have a radically popular policy on housing then we may be sunk but there will be polls out left right and centre though i would of thought we beat Labor in week one but on first results it appears we did not :(

  465. 465
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Glen, I was genuinely holding out the olive branch to your good self.

  466. 466
    Boll
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:46 pm | Permalink

    Both classic epics though RGee.

  467. 467
    Hugh Briss
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:47 pm | Permalink

    Who keeps talking about me!!!!!!!!??????

  468. 468
    John of Melbourne
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    I wonder if Kevin is celebrating the good poll result with a vintage bit of ear wax he had saved?

  469. 469
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    HH one would be a fool to believe the Coalition cannot win from here but one would also be a fool for thinking the Coalition can win if it remains this far behind in the polls i am a realist and i understand it is harder for us to win a 5th term than for Labor to win so the odds are stacked against us and unless Howard can have a radically popular policy on housing then we may be sunk but there will be polls out left right and centre though i would of thought we beat Labor in week one but on first results it appears we did not

    Surely you know this should be more than one sentence?

    Currently it is zero sentences because it doesn’t have a full-stop.

  470. 470
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    As someone remarked previously Bolt is repositioning himself with an eye to a viable future. He’s clearly gone soft on the ‘insiders’ – this week fran kelly and the guy from the tele got under my skin a whole lot more

  471. 471
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    I do not doubt your intentions HH there is no doubt it was an olive branch but i refuse to concede the election is lost just yet there is still another 5 weeks and anything can happen but id rather be in your position than mine i am big enough to admit that HH…

  472. 472
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    I wonder if Kevin is celebrating the good poll result with a vintage bit of ear wax he had saved?

    HAHHAHAHAHAH more ear wax jokes! STOP IT, you are KILLING ME!

  473. 473
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Back to strategy and reality. 5 long weeks to go and polls that will make some panic all over again.

    The way to know what is really going on and, has been said before, is to watch where Kev and PM are canvassing. They wont be wasting time or money during this campaign – what they do has a reason.

  474. 474
    zenk
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    re 433

    Henderson was Howard’s first chief of staff as PM

  475. 475
    CL de Footscray
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:49 pm | Permalink

    Hunter @ 457 – no, Ruddock and Andrews are Lord Voldemort’s evil twin brothers … and Gerard H is trying out for the part

  476. 476
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Henderson was Howard’s first chief of staff as PM

    I thought that was Graeme Morris?

  477. 477
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Glen,

    What the hell have you got against using commas? You can’t be that poorly educated.

  478. 478
    Mark
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:50 pm | Permalink

    Barney @ 456

    “And he (Henderson) is probably the most precious commentator I have ever seen.”

    Absolutely and once we sack Howard he can get a job at CH 9…as the Worm.

  479. 479
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    ShowsOn why would Rudd crack out the vintage ear wax until he’s won the election…that would be worth a 1998 vintage….

  480. 480
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Just for a note of interest… those imbibing the MOEt, should remember this could actually be 61:39.

  481. 481
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    467 – very good. I also admire Glen’s tenacity and (occasional) good humour.

  482. 482
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    You know when they start talking about ear way that things are horribly desperate….commiserations john

  483. 483
    VoterBoy of Over the Water
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    (Looks up hubris in dictionary…)

    EXAMPLE: When a man who is not yet Prime Minister nor even immediately in line for the post tells the media that he’s not minded to live in the PM’s official residence when he becomes PM because he likes his own garden. (See also, prat, eejit, gutless wonder, etc.)

  484. 484
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:51 pm | Permalink

    Glen, you’re a decent guy! And yes, 5 weeks is a long time, we in the ALP are happy but we shouldn’t get too cocky.
    I don’t think I believe this Newspoll: too much of an outlier for my liking.
    The real result will be more like 54:46 or 55:45.

  485. 485
    Kina
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Bolt gave it Kev months ago – though he did sound hopeful when talking up the betting market on the ‘Insiders;.

  486. 486
    Mark
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    I’m pretty sure Henderson was a Speechwriter for the Libs…Generic P?

  487. 487
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    Yeah, its hardly hubris. We’ve suffered for this!

    Plus, speaking objectively: Howard deserves to lose, and lose big time. It was his hubris that kept him on when he was clearly past use-by. Plus he’s lowered every single standard of public life, all the way from ministerial accountability to opportunist race-bating.

    Boring old lefty lines, sure, but true.

    And thats the problem with the Faustian pacts he has lived by in office – one day Faust collects.

  488. 488
    nath
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    suck it up tories, we’ve had a dozen years of your miserable politics. so allow us our hubris.

  489. 489
    Enemy Combatant
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    “When you got a poisonous weed in your garden you have to get it out right down to the roots….
    Do I sound obsessed?”

    Yeah, but so what, Kina? As a blog warrior you’re sensational.
    —————————–

    “surely $750 for laptops is not the extent of the vision?”

    Don’t miss a trick do you, Eddy? Picked right up on the PC Mr. Rudd was holding in the ad. Great eye for detail, although sometimes you struggle with big picture stuff.

  490. 490
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    Poor William will be hoping for some Narrowing after this…..great polls for the ALP are horrible for his bandwidth.

    Indeed, the unanticipated scale of the debate-plus-Newspoll traffic surge has pushed me perilously close to my monthly limit. I have paid for an upgrade but there’s a risk it will not be processed in time. In that case I might be offline for a period tomorrow morning.

  491. 491
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:53 pm | Permalink

    This challenge to Howard could have happened earlier if Labor had got there act together. We would not have had to put up with 11 years. Political disunity is death. Liberal State parties can testify to that.

  492. 492
    Howard Hater
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    For what it’s worth, if you put the newspoll figures into Antony Green’s calculator, you get:
    106 seats ALP
    42 seats COALITION
    2 seats Independents
    In reality, if Labor is getting anything over 80, that’ll be a good result.

  493. 493
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    I just cannot understand how this worm crap has and will cost the Coalition votes it just really surprises me that Ray Martin who i will never watch again accuses the Liberal Party of censorship i mean for crying out load 9 knew that it was a condition they didnt have the worm and they did it anyway…so much for an uncommitted audience as Rudd only had to say when i travel across this great country of ours and boom up to the atmosphere went the worm. 9 has a lot to answer for and they have unfairly tarnished the Coalition and cost us votes they have some real explaining to do as to why they deliberately targeted the Libs when it was the Press Club who issued the rules…

  494. 494
    Pancho
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Glen, Howard issued the rules not the press club.

  495. 495
    Lefty E
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    Tipping in a few coins William.

    You must keep afloat. We need you!

  496. 496
    Generic Person
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    No 487

    Give me a break “Let me speak objectively…” but “Boring old lefty lines, sure, but true”

    Hmmmm. So much for objectivity. I can hear the echoes of Trotsky.

  497. 497
    Ashley
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:55 pm | Permalink

    JustMe @ 444

    See, I told you not to panic

    That you did. =-)

    Still, I’m glad that Labor has started kicking into gear with advertising and policy announcements. Last week was pretty poor.

    Well, Howard is finished. Last week was the best week he will have in this campaign — by a long shot.

  498. 498
    onimod
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    490 – William – how’s the fiscal forecast; found $30bn down the back of the piano lately?

  499. 499
    nath
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:56 pm | Permalink

    Glen, dont u have any liberal mates? save these rants for your fellow travelers.

  500. 500
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    I’m happy for as much hubris as everyone can muster AFTER Rudd wins. Getting carried away 5 weeks out doesn’t achieve anything.

    The best thing about this poll is that it labels Howard a loser who’s best effort (tax policy) simply wasn’t good enough. Nothing less than an outright rejection of the Liberals and the antisocial policies that they have lived by since ‘96 is worth celebrating.

  501. 501
    ShowsOn
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    I just cannot understand how this worm crap has, and will cost the Coalition votes. It just really surprises me that Ray Martin (who i will never watch again) accuses the Liberal Party of censorship. I mean for crying out load, 9 knew that it was a condition they didnt have the worm, but they did it anyway. Also, so much for an uncommitted audience! Rudd only had to say “when i travel across this great country of ours” and boom – up to the atmosphere went the worm! Nine has a lot to answer for; they have unfairly tarnished the Coalition, and cost us votes. They have some real explaining to do – as to why they deliberately targeted the Libs – when it was the Press Club who issued the rules.

  502. 502
    CL de Footscray
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    When Channel 9 starts copping it from the tories you know the swing is really on … unbelievable.

  503. 503
    Boll
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:58 pm | Permalink

    Hit up those Moet drinkers for a bit extra William. Ben Chifley would be turning in his grave.

  504. 504
    paul k
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Monday October 22, 10:50 PM
    Labor surges in latest Newspoll

    Prime Minister John Howard has been dealt a blow by the latest poll figures showing the government losing support, despite its $34 billion package of tax cuts.

    The latest Newspoll, to be published in The Australian, shows Labor opening up a 16-point lead over the coalition – enough to romp home in a landslide if an election were held.
    .
    .
    It’s all Ray Martin’s fault.

  505. 505
    Mark
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    I can’t see this as being anything other than a massacre. The Libs shot their bolt (this conjures up some delightful images) via there tax policy in the first week. So what about Shanahans’ “king hit” on tax. they could bring back Jesus to raise the dead, and it still wouldn’t give them traction.

  506. 506
    Hunter
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Henderson is Lord Dukku, Ruddock is the Sith Lord, Andrews is Lord Voldermorts evil twin brother, Tony Abbot?

  507. 507
    Pi
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    # 454 The Doctor Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 11:42 pm

    Imacca,
    “What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women. …”
    That is a quote from the Iliad isn’t it.

    Conan the Barbarian. lol

  508. 508
    Glen
    Posted Monday, October 22, 2007 at 11:59 pm | Permalink

    Wow nath is a supporter of censorship…i thought this was Australia not Soviet Russia nath!

  509. 509
    Pancho
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:00 am | Permalink

    Megalogenis was interestin in his analysis of the worm. Characteristically courteous to the other two guests, but he made the point that it was the same phenomenon he had seen on some of the Oz’s (?) own focus groups. And that other analysts read this as people turning off Howard. If this is the case, then the fact that the worm was ‘biased’ towards Rudd is more of a worry than conspiracy Libs might think.

    Where did the nine crowd come from? Anyone?

  510. 510
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    No 508

    It is not censorship. Channel 9 agreed to the terms under which the broadcast would proceed.

  511. 511
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    Wow nath is a supporter of censorship…i thought this was Australia not Soviet Russia nath!

    The Liberal party supports censorship too, so long as it helps their political objectives.

  512. 512
    Kina
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:01 am | Permalink

    490
    William Bowe Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 11:53 pm

    Sent the Stork to make a delivery.

  513. 513
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    It is not censorship. Channel 9 agreed to the terms under which the broadcast would proceed.

    You can’t sign away free speech.

  514. 514
    Marrickville Mauler
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    Ave Pseudocheirus Peregrinus Comitatus!!

    OK that’s where my Latin runs out – I dare not attempt the Latin for Poll Bludger – but it would be nice to think that the PollBludger and the Possum not only have kept us informed and encouraged these past months but have also assisted in some way in events which have developed not necessarily to the advantage of Team Rodent.

    Has anyone else done an analysis or kept a scorecard on military analogies so far this campaign?

    My own comparison a week ago of Howard’s day one move on tax policy with the ill advised early Allied lunges into northwest France/Belgium in WW1 and 2 is, I admit, on the eccentric side – but I think it is looking good at this point.

    The pitiful silliness of David Flint’s Maginot line/pincer story on the same tax policy move has already been noted.

    There have been some nice lines in several posts about Cannae (nice of course for all of us that didn’t have to be there on the day).

    Others?

  515. 515
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:02 am | Permalink

    No 513

    You have little understanding of contractual agreements.

  516. 516
    ShowsOn
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    No 513

    You have little understanding of contractual agreements.

    You have little understanding of the constitution.

  517. 517
    Kina
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Bolt was fairly hard on Martin and 9 – wonder what the response will be?

  518. 518
    paul k
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Generic Liberal Person,

    Channel Nine did NOT agree and even if they did so what. This is a democracy. They shouldn’t have to follow unreasonable rules. This isn’t China.

  519. 519
    Howard Hater
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    What astounds me is that Labor have a 16 point lead after a lacklustre first week of campaigning. The electorate really must have stopped listening to Howard, or people saw the tax cuts for what they were, a vote buying exercise. And the MSM have to wake up to themselves, this cheerleading and blatant pro Howard bias, particularly from the GG, is turning a lot of people off.

  520. 520
    Generic Person
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    No 516

    Unfortunately, it is you lacking understanding. Australians do not have a right to free speech under the constitution.

  521. 521
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    More Hubris
    I thank the gods every day for the fact that the rodent didn’t retire last year. My Grandfather passed away never having had the pleasure of seeing Menzies defeated and I thought Howard was going to be my Menzies. Retirement last year would have been the most nauseating sop fest in aust political history with the little scoundrel safely ushered off into the pantheon of political giants by his coterie of parasites, commercial spruikers, media charlatans. But no, Hubris and stupidity and hyacinth and god knows what else kept him in the firing line for just one more shot and this time we’re not going to miss. This impeding whitewash is going to be fitting testimony to the rodents political legacy – the trashing of country for craven political power, the lies, the mediocrity the basic incompetence. He had to go out this way – it will restore some kind of balance to the order of things.

  522. 522
    Pancho
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    Generic, the terms were unreasonable. If I twist your arm behind your back and get you to agree to something it is not really an agreement. Howard acted like a bully. He had no right to try to dictate editorial content or presentation. You’re wrong here, buddy, and perhaps history will show Howard’s worm stunt as his final nail.

  523. 523
    Glen
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:04 am | Permalink

    We didnt censor 9 they did it to themselves they knew the rules and they broke them anyway so too bad…Ray Martin should state who he votes for because it aint the Coalition…

  524. 524
    hubris
    Posted Tuesday, October 23, 2007 at 12:05 am | Permalink

    puts his feet up, feeling verrrrrrryyyy goooooooood

  525. 525