Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.
782 Comments
Bam!
Is this a joke?
Not a joke, unless Tony Jones has given up current affairs for stand-up…
Unbelievable,
Can it be true? Lets get to the bookies before ALP shortens too far.
and that was BEFORE the debate I take it.
Two words:
Nail
Coffin
From Adam on the previous thread:
That’s as I remember it, but I don’t remember her being called anything other than Ricky.
Huckin’ fell!
Is this real? I have considered pinching myself
Presumably conducted on Saturday and Sunday, in the traditional Newspoll fashion.
Adam – yes – pre-debate…
No h*br*s please, Labor people (that’s an order from Hack Central).
It sure is to Labor.
Preffered Prime Minister: Rudd ahead 50 -37
50-38 PPM
She’ll always be Henrike to me.
How about PPM?
37… my bad
Whoooooo!
cheers eco, read my mind
Just in:
Tony Abbot accuses those surveyed by Newspoll as ‘already having made up their minds’ and asks where Newspoll found these people.
BRING BACK GLEN!
He NEEDS to see this!
I’m a neutral observer with Labor sympathies
I try not to overreact
But still….. HOLY S#!@T
Using the immortal Antony Green’s calculator (you’re a legend Antony and we all luv ya) this equals …… it won’t fit!!!!!!!!!!!
Never in my wildest dreams did I think it this happen
What bloody narrowing?
Is that the sound of sharp blade on wrist flesh coming out of liberal hq?
Woot woot woot!!!! Where is Glen?
(What was the NP vote etc etc)
Well there’s a few people on this blog that will sleep more soundly tonight LOL
What I said about the favourable polls for the Libs last week holds true for this Newspoll as well. It was taken in a period where Labor dominated the news cycle, it’s little wonder 58-42 was the result.
It is however pretty convincing evidence the Libs tax policy wasn’t a ‘knockout punch’, ‘king-hit’ or whatever other analogy was used this time last week.
Long way to go, but good signs for Labor…
Any sign of John Hunt is a Coward? With his remarkable insight.
This is EXACTLY what Labor needs, some serious rogue action to demoralise the opposition.
With the margin of error is still within 56-44 range that its been for months. Nothings changed!
BONG BONG BONG BONG
Ask not, Edward, for whom the bell tolls. It tolls for thee.
Confirmed on Sky. Someone get the Packer-whacker for Johnny.
Malcolm Farr on Sky – “Shows you what half a computer can do”
I still cannot believe this
Not in my wildest dreams did i think it would be 58/42
Has this ever happened before that the alp has widened the gap so much in the first week?
This is being discussed on Sky News NOW
Ouch!! Another testing of cabinet support by Howard coming up?
OK, no hubris, settle down people, we must all be calm and rational about this…..
YIPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Someone pinch me.
Adam, with 58-42, and the economy issue largely exhausted for any real mileage in the media cycle, it is time to turn to the Labor strengths (save for nat.security). Could overt enthusiasm be an acceptable attitude?
Oh my, the last three days have been very very good days indeed
Love it!!!
F*ck hubirs Glen…. BOO-YAH!
*Does a little dance around his kitchen*
Oh Narrowing, Narrowing, wherefore art thou Narrowing?
Might I suggest we take this as 55/45 with MOE and not get to over confident. It just mean one weak closer and status quo, 5 to go and stay on the ball Kevi [and no measuring offices].
What was the last Newspoll result ?
Ouch 58-42, that has got to hurt and I assume it was conducted before the debate ?
WOW!
WOW!
WOW!
WOW!
I am genuinely stunned. Both at the 2PP and the preferred PM figures. Not to mention this was taken before the debate.
WOW!
I wonder why Smirky didn’t rule out a leadership challenge today?
By the way, I’ve stopped now……
YOU BEAUTY!!!!!!!
OK, now I’ve stopped…….
Damn, what a crap poll, no 6 in front of it.
Labor Hacks are allowed ten minutes of gloating, and then it’s back to filling out fake postal votes, OK?
Ok I’ll play my pessimism card – this is obviously too good to be true, so next week when it goes to 56-44 the GG will run “Howard fights back”…
nah bugger it, the Libs needed to get momentum early. It was THE ONLY reason they released their tax policy last week. It failed.
What else can they do now?
The worm lives.
Looking forward to Possum’s analysis. Pollycide Part 4!!!
Great result! But there’s only poll that matters…
WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Bluebottle – it was 56-44 with ALP /Coalition on 39/48 primaries.
Gaps narrowing on economy and Nat. security.
ahhhhhhh
4-1 talkback AGAINST the LP tax cuts was NEVER momentum.
I even yelled at Brissenden on the 730 report tonight for referring to it as such.
What’s the reaction going to be?
I’m betting “all steady, nothing new” from the ALP for another week and panic like we’ve never seen form the LP – I think it’s Hockey’s turn tomorrow isn’t it?
George Megalogenas says gap narrowing on economy and national security
OMG
I agree Kina, it may be an outlier but it ain’t the ‘Narrowing’!
Santa Claus just walked through my door!!!!!!!!!
Labor still has a job to do, if the win looks good odds then the job is to maximise the opportunity.
Preferred PM – Rudd 50, Howard 37.
Adam at 47 – I am off to the Cemetery now!
Yay, we shall then have a minute silence for our dearly departed, the worm.
Any word on Primaries yet?
I thought there would b e a widening. I think Possum is on the record of thinking the same thing. It will widen even further. This will be a once-in-a-generation tsunami.
CRUSH THEM ABSOLUTELY, WITHOUT MERCY!!!!! GRIND THEM INTO THE DUST WITH THE HEELS OF OUR BOOTS!!!!!!
Not gloating, Adam. Genuinely stunned. I would have been happy with 54 2PP.
WOW!
TofK 46
You’re hard to please!!!!!
Bobby Horry 51
C’mon, let us enjoy this for tonight LOL
Correct me if I’m wrong, but a result like this requires a labor primary vote to be at least 50%.
This is a complete kick in the gonads…..
I need to go and sit down somewhere, find an ice-pack, and wonder if I’ll ever conceive children
groannnnnnnnnnn
Adam 47. How do you do that? No, don’t tell me, the Libs might turn their energies from Inet pseudo polls.
BREAKING: white powder found at parliament, found on HoR side. Are the libs trying to start their own terror scare? Way too coincidental.
That means the government is on the way out. Voting intention is most important, but those gapes narrowing mean people are changing their mind on those issues to justify prefering Labor, not the other way around.
Who’s going to sack Windschuttle?
Eggo, Im filling my glass with chardonnay as I type (dont ask me how).
Don’t like it when the polls show landslide preportions.. the public may see it as a reason to believe that Labor will win so i will switch back…
You can put the figure in, you just have to be clever.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=10.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Adam,
i recall you ,some weeks ago, calling possum and others(me) fools for suggesting that some Lib strongholds like North Sydney, Ryan, Sturt, Goldstein,Higgins, Kooyong, Grey etc are in play.
any change of mind now?
Rudd is no hero to Labor left supporters but he is KRYPTONITE to Howard with “wet” Lib supporters.
Now we know the real reason why Costello wouldn’t come onto the 7:30 report with Kerry
…
Yes, Just Me. My prediction after the Rudd tax policy was that it would enable Labor to hold the line in Newspoll at 55 and that would be good enough. I’m very pleased to be wrong.
71.. why would’t he walk?
Has Newspoll been taking Morgan methodology pills?
Shanahan says “Too early to tell if public likes the ALP tax policy”
Let’s be objective here (I know it’s hard to do, bear with me)
What can the Libs do now? Let’s think from their side….
National security
Ditch Howard (not as dumb as it sounds)
I struggling to think of things…….
thanks for that thought, I just finished mine, will go back for a refill
At least this in part destroys any media narrative of a ‘comeback’ for the Liberal Party. Watch and see Liberal internal polling be leaked showing them ‘in front in the bush and key marginals’.
Harry, I don’t think I called anyone a fool. I begged to differ with the construction Possum was putting on the Newspoll extrapolations. I am sticking by my prediction of 20 seats.
TofK. I am already on my 2nd vodka after reading those numbers.
WOW! (Last time, I promise. I’ll revert to lower case.)
And maybe why the PM seemed a grumpy old man last night.New he had to win to try and stay in the race.
Cant wait for Shanna’s article. If there ever was a ‘Denis Doctrine’, it would be denial, and lots of it.
To paraphrase Aussiegurl from last nights blog :
“Australians let us all rejoice for we are gunna be Howard-free”
exactly Adam, this means that 55-45 is possible. That still wont deliver seats like Kooyong.
Sydney Newspaper headline last week was
“Here comes Johnney” wonder what will it be tomorrow…..
Stopped by the office of one Wayne Swan this arvo and strongly suggested a Swan-Costello debate, face to face, would be good value for Labor if Swanny can go hard on child care, petrol prices, family budget struggles and stuff the women voters in outer mortgage belt seats will tune in to.
The secretary kindly listened to my suggestions then took my name etc and I left. Tonight, on the BIG EARS report, they noted at the beginning that Captain Smirk had been invited to do just that, debate Swan ;
He opted to say no and also rejected an invitation to a simple interview with BIG EARS, again, no thanks;maybe tomorrow night. Maybe he is still smarting from the dressing down he got for being a dickhead on national television during the debate last night.
Oh yeah, I was a dick trying to advise W Swan how to run his campaign: but that’s ok, Im not running for Government or the unelected PM of this country am I. What a whoose bag Captain Smirk is outside of the big house.
JustMe, vodka! You menshevik! Bed its that red label you keep under the bed!
Labor still needs to cry poor, under-play it considerably, even bullshit it – they don’t want the horses to be scared. If this is even close to true then other things could be on. 11 long years.
This is like wining the sem-final and walking off the field without celebration, mind on the big event.
I hope unions, officials, Labor members can hold it together with out the office measuring mentality.
Just Me, Julie, TofK
I’m a tea-totaller
Nights like this I wish I wasn’t…..
Kina @ 42 and Dave @ 28 – spot on. Nothing has changed. The real tsunami in this (i.e. slow and unstoppable) is best summarised in how our mate the worm didn’t move after a few moments of J-HO talking. The punters have switched off. Roll on 24 Nov.
Bolt says Labor with a majorith of 10 seats. Attacks Henderson for sitting on the fence and then criticising those that got it wrong after the election.
Yes Kina. Personally I think Labor’s policy of Rudd running for 150 seats is working.
Yes Harry,
I too want Adam to at least admit that Higgins and Warringah are now in play.
81
SirEggo Says:
Let’s be objective here (I know it’s hard to do, bear with me)
What can the Libs do now? Let’s think from their side….
Umm, seppuku?
I am just trying to help, and make it as painless for them as I can. Honest.
Oops, empty glass again. Must have a hole in it. Better drink straight from the bottle, just to be sure.
wow
I was trying to stay positive last week given the strong AC primary. But I was sure the 2PP would be 54 or less.
LETP 83 is spot on – this poll is good mostly because it kills the Howard is comming back bull. But at 58% it actually goes even further and the talk becomes about should Howard have gone, is it too late for Costello etc etc.
The main goal for Rudd all year has been to destroy the myth of Howard and his ability to come back from the dead. Last week’s nerves showed how potent this myth is.
got off train at St leonards (sydney) 2 bailey campaigners, lots of smiles from commuters
where’s Joe
hope he dont eat the worm
ps 58/42 is surely the new benchmark
Wonder what it would have been AFTER the debate? I heard it on the web (no worms) and thought Howard started better than Kev, but that Kev came home with a wet sail – would have done himself lots of favours with those swingers who might be inclined to stick with the devil you know.
With moe’s etc, tend to agree that not much has changed – whatever Libs are trying isn’t working. Wonder what panic strategies they have up their sleeve, and whether they have to resort to them now.
The kind of swing is now looking like ‘96 levels or more. 2004 result leaves a big challenge… I think that’s been met, but can the Libs really lose 30-40 or more seats? Surely not.
Would Costello stay if it was a rout? If not, who would lead the Libs realistically – they can’t go back to Downer (clown)…
Even if Rudd is sitting to the speaker’s right, in a chair next to the dispatch box, Shanahan will still say the election is too close to call.
From Your Rights@Work.
Methinks it’s time to call for a Hardly Normal Boycott.
Make that tea Irish and your there eggo!
Megalogenis said Newspoll finished at 5:00pm on Sunday
94,
SirEggo,
Cruise on over to your local convience store and treat yourself to a really nice icecream or some dessert that you normally don’t indulge in. Same principle
Great news!
So how much longer will News Ltd. keep persisting with trying to get Howard re-elected? Their efforts so far are obviously falling on deaf ears.
Howard’s plan with workchoices as one analyst wrote somewhere was nothing to do with IR and everything to do with destroying Labor.
When you got a poisonous weed in your garden you have to get it out right down to the roots. Labor has to be ruthless, don’t cost.
Do I sound obsessed?
Getting off at St Leonards – is that like getting off at Redfern for rich people?
happy happy joy joy
Link to Skynews page – http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=196473
Was that Edward I saw heading for the airport?
Although these results are good, i would much prefer them to be the results for the Senate…
Gusface, Bailey’s posters have all been pilfered by Joe’s mob. Change of tactics methinks. Still, the amount of time it takes to rip posters down you might as well put some of your own up (ive heard =))
dont coast I mean
92
TofK Says:
JustMe, vodka! You menshevik! Bed its that red label you keep under the bed!
Da. A whole case. (It is October, after all, the revolution month.)
wo wo wo wo wow
Never seen anything like it so close to an election.
John Howard can’t do anything now.
There’s no point in changing leaders. It would make it even worse.
It will be termed a rogue poll.
I agree with Adam. The final result won’t be anything like this.
Nevertheless John Howard and his colleagues must be feeling quite sick.
The debate wouldn’t have helped.
All the allegations that the Government tried to stop the worm – and we can see why- hasn’t gone down well and has dominated the debate story.
Kevin Rudd in the play pen with the children will help him with the women voters. It made him seem ( and I believe he really is) very human.
Thanks Antony for showing how this would play out.
It would be rather like one of those Indian state elections where there are huge swings one way and then the other at the next election.
Maybe people really do want a change.
GG @ 98 – stay off the sherry until election night.
Adam @ 110 – getting off at Redfern is like getting off at Redfern for rich people
As I’ve been saying on this blog for months now, there are no dirty tricks left for Howard to play (just the old ones that have already been tried and failed), and Rudd is clearly the superior performer in front of a camera or a microphone.
So it beggars belief how anyone can logically think that Howard will be catching up in this campaign (beyond eternally hopeful conservatives and chronically pessimistic and frightened Labor supporters).
Therefore there is no other outcome left but a Ruddslide of biblical proportions. The only issue for me is the extent to which the Labor floodtide will inundate safe Liberal seats.
People need to accept that Rudd is an exceptional leader (as evidenced by his unprecedented polling performances over the last 8 months) and so we should not expect conformation to norms, but expect results that are exceptional.
I gotta say where are they getting these people from? All the seat by seat polling I have seen has the result at nothing like that.
Anything Morgan produces after this is going to look conservative -where are our statisticians when we need them to help us sort out the trend, margins of error and all the other essential matters to keep us on the path of sanity and sober psephological seriousness.
St Leonards is quite cosmopolitan for the northside. Not quite up the mosman scale.
I still have 5.5 KG left to lose before election day to make my target of 79 KG.
I drank a glass of milk, that counts as a treat these days
But the debate last night, and this poll result, makes the 2 hours of letter-boxing on Sunday feel worthwhile.
SMH front page tomorrow morning:
Kevin Rudd has pulled further ahead of John Howard, according to the latest Newspoll figures.
The loser of the debate was the national press club, and guess what I am still sticking to 30+ seats to labor.
Marky, the Senate vote will follow the Reps vote. Trust me on this. If Labor gets 58% 2PV in the Reps the Coalition will lose the Senate.
Thommo, we won’t know until after the election.
Noocat… news limited will not let up… and don’t think for a minute it will not… pathetic rag from a dangerous man… perhaps the most dangerous man in the world due to all that power he has with newsprint…
Henderson = SMH’s Denis…
Where’s Glen!
He’s probably heard the result and said to himself “I’m not going on Pollbludger with those dropkicks carrying on…..”
O deary me the Libs are in a tad of bother.
My first reaction was “shock” but we have now seen several times just as the Liberals get the numbers back to 54 ish along comes a bounce for the ALP up to 57-58, this first happened between July – September and appeared to again happen only last week.
Greensborough Growler, I really can’t imagine Warringah coming into play unless Peter Macdonald stands as an independent. He might just win this time. Give it a go Peter.
Lets not forget to thank Tassie for doing DST earlier than everyone else
… saved us all a late night 
Rudd Labor will destroy Howard in the HoR thanks to deserting lifelong “wet” Libs.
that is fantastic news.
However Rudd Labor will also bleed senate support to the Greens thanks to deserting Left Laborites.
that is also fantastic news.
58-42 Just say those numbers to yourself. It’s hard to believe, but true. And again, but slower … F i f t y – e i g h t – F o r t y – t w o . . .
.. and it still doesn’t register the scale of this result. Not just the result, but the timing of it. Amazing.
Evening all. My big question is… are you smiling just a bit now Lose The Election Please? Ready to shift that prophecy of yours a little… maybe only a three seat Coalition majority likely?
Interesting couple of weeks ahead. I was expecting another big policy splash from the Libs today… another Megaphone Monday to steal the running for the week (repeated every Monday from here on in). But we got nada, just a vacuum filled by the worm and Kevin looking positively post-coital all day. God bless him.
Have the Libs got any more big guns to fire, I wonder, or is it a very fierce hand to hand battle in the twenty key marginals from here on in?
They better make it thirty five key marginals…
Yes, Kerensky must fall. All power to the soviets! And vodka for all.
The result will have a psychological impact. It will demoralise parts of the Liberal support base. Some of them will give up, even if the true result in some marginals is a lot closer.
110
Adam Says:
Getting off at St Leonards – is that like getting off at Redfern for rich people?
I used to get off at Hornsby. Frequently.
BMWofVictoria @ 132 – the MoE moves in about 3-4% range – so 54-58 is natural ‘noise’ .The real result is probably in that range and probably has been for all of this calendar year.
ALP poll momentum:
http://www2.skynews.com.au/news/article.aspx?id=196473
“The Coalition’s recent brief poll resurgence has stalled, with new figures showing Labor taking a 16 point lead on a two-party basis”.
My Moma told me there would be nights like this.( Sorry Van)
Keep calm, people. It’s 55 at the outer bound of 3% MOE. Ruddster needs 52 2PP. His cushion is only 3.
Very fitting in hindsight. The storming of the winter palace uncovered the biggest alcohol stash in Russia, and was followed by St Petersburg’s biggest hangover in recorded history to date.
Another thing… this result will give Rudd big headlines tomorrow. No doubt the government will have to counter with a big policy announcement of some sort. Maybe the health policy that the government’s press secretary D. Shanahan has promised.
No Crispy, my 5 seat majority prediction will remain, until very close the actual day. I think this election will be very interesting, and will give us a lot to look back at after it’s all over.
If Rudd can keep it to 55-45 come election day I will be a very happy camper, even if I am stuck in some el cheapo hotel in Box Hill celebrating my el cheapo brothers 50th when the numbers come in on election night.
At that rate, the 20 seats Adam Carr nominated on his site are looking very good and then some.. Im stick with my 25-27 seats: a reversal of 2004 at this rate.
Hubris: no, sir. A core beleif that JWH is done and dusted and its time for him to go home and ’spend more time with the family’…hope he takes Costello with him.
More coffin nails for the rodent please!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22631396-601,00.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SESr9D5Gd7A
You bloody beauty – Go the Ruddster!!!! What a lovely set of numbers they are…yipppeeee yipppeeee
What is the Primary – is it published yet?
I hope so. I will be nervous as hell even if the last Newspoll says 53 / 47.
SId Marris’ early report:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22631396-601,00.html
ShowsOn, yes it certainly will demoralise Liberal candidates.
People do like people who look and behave like winners!
2004 2PP was ~47% for ALP, right? There is no way they can achieve 58% in the election – question is whether Libs can limit it to 52-53% and perhaps an ALP majority of 10-20.
Anything under a 10 majority would be a brilliant result for the Coalition now (Costello might stay on!). 54-55% 2PP means a ‘96 rout is in the offing – maybe an ALP majority of 20-30? Means Libs have to lose 40 seats to the ALP. That’s like UK ‘97. even the most diehard ALP fan can’t believe this is a probable outcome?
Is it possible that this is a response by the punters to last weeks polling? Did they get spooked by the media’s pushing of the narrowing narrative and react to it?
I can’t believe this poll (literally). It’s amazing. It’s counter-intuitive. It goes against every other poll taken in the last week.
But it’s there. And that’s good enough. Every headline tomorrow will be about “Rudd’s comeback” – even The Oz!
I can’t wait to see Dennis’ analysis. Heck, I can’t wait to see Malcolm Colless’ analysis. Or The Oz editorial.
And forgive me for my hubris but:
WOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
1876 all over again.
Just in:
Mark Latham has announced he is willing to take a diplomatic posting should Labor win the Federal election.
White powder found in Parliament House. Hmmm…
BTW, was Piers Akerman at the debate the other night?
Just asking…
If this was the election result that would be a 10% swing, if my memory serves me correctly Keating suffered a 5% swing, gosh there must be some really scary swings on.
Count me in to this group. I am going Green in the Senate, not so much though because I am deserting Labor but because I want to rid the Senate of the Coalition majority and since the Greens are closer to getting the BOP than Labor that is a good enough argument for me. Whatever it takes to get the Coalition out of power
“Noocat… news limited will not let up… ”
But Marky, surely when it all comes down to business – government inside scoops, government advertising, and future media laws – they may not want to be on the wrong side of the railway tracks. At some point, they will have to make their peace with Labor, and better on this side of the election than the other.
Or are they really just a bunch of rabid ultra right wing hacks, nothing more?
By the way, am I right in thinking that a score of 50 for preferred PM would have to be the highest that Rudd has received by Newspoll?
If the polls stay above 55 then good sleep will follow, of course, if you follow Rudd.
Well. Seems things are going swell for Prime Minister Rudd. By all accounts. At this stage of the proceedings. When will the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Costello or his nominated ring-in, announce his front bench and his tax policy? The Nation needs to know.
144
TofK Says:
Very fitting in hindsight. The storming of the winter palace uncovered the biggest alcohol stash in Russia, and was followed by St Petersburg’s biggest hangover in recorded history to date.
I am about to repeat history.
Cheers
(wow)
fiztig @ 156 – it is likely to be just the effect of randomness – the next polls in the series will tell us if this is the case. That’s why this stuff is so addictive.
On News.com.au: “Rudd Increases Poll Lead”
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22631608-29277,00.html
Yeah, and even the bottom rung hacks like to think their candidate is in with a chance.
I’m supporting my local candidate because a) she is a great candidate with excellent qualifications, and b) the party machine is actually supporting her with decent bucks so she has a chance at winning the seat. In previous years they basically run dead in my seat, which makes volunteering for the seat I live in pointless.
I doubt it. Most people just aren’t plugged into things that closely.
Unbeloodylievable.
I don’t believe in 58-42 polls at any time, least of all now… but fark me, could the timing be better for Rudd?
Kim Beazley must wonder what he did to the Newspoll Gods. Every time he started picking up a bit of momentum last year he copped a (bad) rogue Newspoll in the solar plexus. With Rudd, it’s been the opposite.
Knives out at 20 paces for the Libs in the morning
Julie @ 107,
Just for a nice icecream right now!
SL @ 158: it does go against the oterh polls, but it’s the first poll taken since Labor fired a shot.
This will hurt them – what a blow.
I guess the only downside to a poll like this is that there is a good chance that the next poll will be down, which will trigger another “Howard comeback” frenzy from the media. But that in itself is not a bad thing because Labor probably don’t want to seem too far ahead, albeit I do think the underdog effect is often overrated.
The same thing happened in Berlin in 1945 when the Red Army broke into the wine cellars of the Adlon Hotel, the best in Europe at that time. They drank the place dry then burned down the hotel. As one does.
174 – “other”
As Malcolm Farr said, it’s amazing what half a computer can do. The Libs just don’t get that people want their taxes spent on something worthwhile, not just given back to them a couple of years later.
This is a vote for Rudd’s education rebate and childcare policies. No doubt he’ll have a few more hospital policies to roll out as well. Haing been a state bureaucrat, he knows that people want good essential services, and punish governments that don’t think this is important.
It’s still a surprisingly large Newspoll vote for Labor, and state breakdowns would be VERY interesting. It is remarkable that so many people want to park their vote with Labor, rather than desert Howard by voting for a minor party.
And while this poll was taken before the debate, the debate has clarified two very important things, that will also help Labor greatly. One is that Rudd has credibility on economic issues – so the government’s biggest gun has been silenced. And the other is that people do hate Costello more than Howard, so a leadership change won’t happen. I think Turnbull could turn a few votes around if he was leader, but he isn’t, and won’t be.
On these results, Howard, Turnbull and Costello would all lose their seats. I doubt that that will happen, but I reckon they’ll be sticking fairly close to their electorates in coming weeks, while Rudd storms the country.
LOL, 113 Darn. Staying put.
Hopefully we have a Howard Comeback line in the 2nd to last week of the campaign, but not the LAST week else I’ll stop breathing.
It really puts the Galaxy poll into perspective doesn’t it?
Noocat @ 175 – succinct expression of chaos theory (don’t look for to much meaning).
PS – Let me amend my above comment: the poll is brilliant for Rudd in terms of turning his debate springboard into a trampoline for media coverage this week.
Not sure that rogue polls creating perceptions of a crushing Labor victory will be beneficial though.
What was the sample, and what’s the MOE?
176
Adam Says:
The same thing happened in Berlin in 1945 when the Red Army broke into the wine cellars of the Adlon Hotel, the best in Europe at that time. They drank the place dry then burned down the hotel. As one does.
LOL
I am not prepared to burn my house down on the basis of one poll. Besides which, it might be a bit tricky, being a metal frame, metal skin job.
I still just refuse to believe these numbers they are just plain wrong. We will find out on 24th of November I guess.
Hoping for a whitewash, but until election night drags my wildest fantasies into reality, im sticking with my (1 seat majority would still make me smile) prediction of 82alp-66lnp-2ind. But even writing this makes me chant: prove me wrong, prove me wrong, prove me wrong. 100+ seats would be lovely =).
In the previous thread some people speculated about when the Labor campaign would turn negative. If they keep getting polls like this I hope they just keep playing the SAME positive adverts with different policies.
There is no need to go negative if the polls say they remain in the lead.
Proves Galaxy poll was push polling.
Burgey @ 184,
Those figures are not known yet. The Australian’s website should have them up around 12:30am EST.
Thommo – numbers are never wrong – people are wrong.
Must have been a push poll Thommo, done in Marrickville.
Thommo… what made the Galaxy figures believable last week?
VoterBoy of over the Water, lucky you didn’t use your real name! You can check the story in NSW Hansard.
I think a lot of people will vote for the Greens in the Senate, Julie, for the same reason.
Workchoices wouldn’t have passed if the Greens had held the balance.
Also the Greens will undoubtedly hold the government accountable.
The government will still be able to pass much of its legislation with the support of HM Opposition but will need the Greens for the more progressive pieces of legislation.
Thommo, have you ever heard of a certain river in Egypt? You are in it.
Well the AC Neilsen must have been right, Labors primary did increase but wrong about the Greens. Newspoll probably gave the Greens back their 2%
Thommo – even if there’s a different result on election night, it doesn’t make these numbers wrong, coz they’re a snapshot of where people are at now.
Five weeks is a long time in politics, as the past 7 days have just shown.
AM this poll is the outlier not the galaxy one.
Noocat 175 – playing the underdog though has it’s limits. I think is essential that people DO NOT think the ALP are the underdogs going in to the last week. People need to think they are going to win.
I don’t think Labor will win 111 seats or whatever Antony’s calculator says with 58% of the 2pp.
However I think this poll says they will win about 90, rather than the 80 that I have been predicting.
I guess I should just split the difference and say 85, so long as Sturt is the 85th seat they win!
ASM @ 189 – Galaxy started life as a telemarketing company, I heard. Talking of chaos theory: never get telemarketers to do polling!
“…the poll is brilliant for Rudd in terms of turning his debate springboard into a trampoline for media coverage this week.”
And if CPI figures released this week show an unexpectedly high rate of inflation, then speculation of a rise in interest rates will cap off a very advantageous week for Labor.
Thommo… what gives you the belief that Galaxy was correct? Is it just because it confirms your belief of what the polls should be?
There should be a comprehensive history study of mass alcoholism brought about by social dislocation. Make for a fascinating, and probably very long, read.
I think Rudd should take the day off tomorrow after this poll outcome and put his feet up. He’s earned it.
Thommo before you dismiss this poll please go and check out Palmers poll graphs for they show all year the ALP have had at least 55% support and it was only a month ago that Newspoll had a 60-40 before dipping to 55 but yeah all 4 polling companies have had these very lopsided numbers all year.
Noocat… News Limited don’t give a stuff.. They are in a powerful position.. and after the election they will not let up… And for Labor their will be no excuses for them… no blaming the State Governments for probs… the ball would be in their court..
To be frank Labor should stiffen the Media Laws and toughen the public broadcasting authorities role regarding misleading reporting…
News Limited have a monopoly regarding newsprint in Queensland and South Australia and i think Tassie and just think about the role the play if any policies come which are anti business..
People should stop gloating, only gloat when it happens…
Wrong Scotty… he should act as if it’s a rogue and double his efforts. I’m not giving him any rest.
Thommo, the crucial thing is outlier or not this poll will get big coverage (that’s the only worth of polls – they only matter if they can be used to tell a story, and this is a very bad story for the Libs)
The Galaxy figure is just more believable full stop. Just look at the seat by seat polling we have seen there are no numbers close to 58/42. We will find out on election night.
“Thommo Says:
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:14 pm
AM this poll is the outlier not the galaxy one.”
They’re probably both outliers, Thommo, which puts reality around 55/56. Not unreasonable given the mood I’ve been picking up lately.
Crosby Textor nailed all the reasons months ago. They may be evil, but they’re good.
We saw the dead cat bounce and it is quite dead now. It had it’s 2 to 3% difference which you would expect. The electorate was bounced quite heavily and that was it.
I am at 20 seats still too, expect 55/45 from here on. Swings but in the wrong places. Like in Vic election, biggest swing in labor held swings then in liberal then in marginal.
Whatch the Murdoch press turn in the final week. No paper wants a whitewash. Only a close game sells tickets, but then they’ll turn to save credibility.
should we start the competition for what the GG’s headline will be?
Maybe: “Half of Australia doesn’t support Rudd for PM”"?
Will “J-Ho loses the ‘big’ tax cut mo” be the headline in the GG tomorrow?
I doubt it but it will interesting to see how the MSM Howard cheer squad spin their way out of this.
My worry is that, if there is a perception of a Ruddslide at this stage, there maybe swing back to Howard by those who decide their vote as they fill out their ballot papers, thinking Labor is going to win anyway.
JWH cannot win while he lacks a clear and coherent message to sell the electorate. He had one for each of the past three elections, but a general appeal to “economic management” doesn’t work unless it ties directly into personal experiences. If he does manage to hit a theme which resonates (and to my surprise it’s seeming less likely), look for a comeback.
Aristotle made a good point a fair while ago that polls tend to vary more widely during election campaigns. While this result will make the coalition sweat, the other most recent polls have moved to the coalition. On that note, does anyone know the furthest out Newspoll has been from the final result during an election period ?
I believe you heard wrong. It was started by David Briggs after he left Newspoll. For all the bad press it gets, it does in fact have the best record of any pollster since it was established in 2004.
Thommo you are correct the Marginals are swinging less than these polls would suggest but as our dear fury Possum has shown looking at Newspoll and Nelson the swing is bigger in safe Liberal seats than the marginals.
Thommo,
Let me explain the basic rule of politics to you.
Perception = reality
In this case, the perception is that Rudd is in the ascendancy, the Coalition tax cuts and negative advertising haven’t worked and the Libs are on the nose.
Whether this is true or not is irrelevant – once figures like this get digested by the MSM, everyone will be thinking that the Coalition are stuffed. I, myself, have doubts over the accuracy of the poll, but that is unimportant at the moment. There’s no new polls til at least Thursday, so Rudd gets 2 clear days with this poll to build even more momentum.
The inflation figure is likely to be 1% or more, possibly 1.1%. The Reserve Bank would feel obliged to act if they go that high and frankly, if they see opinion polls like these, they will realise that it won’t make any difference to the election result. They wouldn’t need to wait until December.
Well my dear Kameraden,
Winners are grinners and losers can please themselves, but now that victory is in sight, within taste , why be modest – what should Labor do with the keys to the kingdom – surely $750 for laptops is not the extent of the vision?
Richard Jones, 194.
Oh, I’m agog and aghast…
My line of inquiry was far more innocent – I was just thinking, ‘Piers, he’s a big man, probably very liberal with the Johnson’s Baby Powder to avoid chafing’, that sort of thing.
(Searches for ironic emoticon, but fails to find one…)
Rudd scared of Howard – wants to debate Costello
In other news: Newspoll workers sacked
I wonder if some of those polled on the weekend saw the press on Friday from the Neilsen and Galaxy results, and began to think that Howard might be re-elected, thus influencing them to make the jump to Rudd?
They might have been thinking that it’s time for a change, but weren’t willing to commit just yet, until faced with the prospect of NOT getting the change, thus galvanising their decision to say “ALP” in response to the Newspoll pollsters?
Leopold @ 171
that is because Rudd is Rupert’s man. And as Shamaham once told us”Rupert owns newspoll”.
Rupert has Rudd in his pocket….thanks to Col Allen *wink*.
the stripper story was just a shot over Kevins bow.
World domination is such a dirty game.
“I think is essential that people DO NOT think the ALP are the underdogs going in to the last week. People need to think they are going to win.”
Grog, I agree completely. The leaked Crosby-Textor polling this year highlighted the importance of expectations of a party winning government. This would far outweigh any underdog effect. Besides, the underdog effect only works if you LIKE the underdog. People might feel sorry for a party that has lost support, but if they still don’t like them or their policies, then voting for them won’t come easy.
Trying to be perceived as an underdog can, however, minimise impressions of arrogance, but the win expectations still need to be there and the likeability also needs to be there. People like to back a winner.
In many ways, Labor is a theoretical underdog in terms of needing 16 seats and fighting a great deal of media bias. There is a lot of institutional bias against Labor. But despite the challenge, they are doing brilliantly so far.
216 – William – I defer to your great knowledge on these things, but they really like to push the envelope in sample size and they always seem to please the master.
Could be 61-39 with MOE!
ESJ, what’s John Howard’s vision? A tax cut so we can all decide what to do with it ourselves…
Well now that’s out of the way… what to do with 5 more weeks of campaigning?
Keating was wrong… THIS is going to be the sweetest victory of all.
Especially if Howard loses his seat.
Sir Eggo, I suspect that ditching Howard might ruin what little hope the Libs have left at this point.
Last night, I actually felt a bit sorry for Howard, watching him squirm and look on the verge of tears–and I’m about as much a long-term Howard Hater as you could find. If the Liberals shafted him at this point, I suspect that they’d lose support from those who find Costello far too much of a brash upstart, those who adore Howard (and yes, they do exist, strangely enough). We’re talking here of over 70 year old, mainly female, upper-middle class types, a pretty large constituency of the Liberal Party.
If I felt Howard’s pain, given that I want him to suffer a miserable and agonising defeat, just imagine how they must be feeling about him.
This will be great for the Labor guys, help them settle and be more relaxed. Rudd can hopefully relax a bit and be more like he was last night.
LTEP 228
Which Labor copied. I rest my case.
LTEP,
It’s now time to start drinking daily, so you can build up your alcohol tolerance for the massive party you’re going to have on election night (win or lose)!!!
LTEP (208) I’m half joking…. To be honest he doesn’t look very tired. Looks very relaxed and in control. I suspect members of his team have probably told him to rest and I’ll wager he told them to bugger off.
Of course not, Edward, but do you think we are going to reveal our real plans to kulaks like you? Let me just suggest, because I like you, that you have a suitcase packed on the night of the 24th.
212 – read or re-read the Possum’s posts of the last few months, this time the swings will be where the ALP needs them, if it ends up 55-45 then it will be easily over 90 seats.
Like most people, I find it hard to credit that this poll will be duplicated on election day. But when you think about it, the Ostrayan people have been perfectly prepared to give Labor landslide victories in various states. Bracks, Beattie and Rann have stormed to huge majorities IN LINE WITH THE PRE-ELECTION POLLS, and Labor’s initial win in the Northern Territory was a massive swing.
If people want to get rid of a government these days, they’ll swing as far as they can. There aren’t as many rusted-on voters to the major parties as they used to be, partly because there’s less difference between what the parties stand for these days.
They like Rudd, they are not scared of Labor Governments because of the state experiences, and the think it’s time to give Labor a go in Canberra. And no doubt they’ll be prepared to swing massively against a state Labor Government when the Liberal Party bothers to put up a presentable Opposition somewhere.
It’s almost certainly an outlier and we should keep nice and calm. The polls get more volatile now the campaign is under sail.
But still… I so did not see that coming. The media narrative will be a killer.
Holy crap.
Well, after that lil’ pick-me-up, I’m turning in – ‘night all.
I wonder how much booze they have stashed at Kirribilli?
ESJ, people don’t care about all this childish ‘you copied me’ coming from either party.
If you’re going to criticise one party for lack of vision, look at the other. The Liberal Party has never once offered a comprehensive vision for the future, even with the resources of government.
Of course, I expect him to release policies over the duration of the campaign… but surely a government should be forming policy for the duration of its term.
It might even be worth buying the Austrayan tomorrow.
Nah, I’ll just steal one instead…
58-42 is very unlikely Thommo, well it would make election history I would have thought. Memory tells me a national swing of 5-6% is a very good result in recent election history, but Im no psephelogist.
But things are not looking good for the ‘the narrowing’ thesis at this stage in the campaign if the 2 percent JWH allegedly got on the Tax policy has already wormed its way out of his pocket, and before the worm took its toll at the debate. I understand this poll closed at 5pm Sunday night.
Guys on a sort of related side note, what does everyone think of the nurse strike in Victoria? Could this hurt Labor federally, or is it too prickly an issue for Howard to try and take advantage of due to it concerning WorkChoices
Before you all rudd-gasm and stain the bedsheets….
This poll goes against ALL of the seat by seat polling from around the country – even in SA (the ALP’s claimed “strongest” state), the seat by seat polling shows at best a 5-6% swing..
The final result is going to be MUCH closer than this latest newspoll suggests.
Next week the polls are going to show a shortening again, and headlines of “Howard makes a comeback”.
It’s an Austin Powers moment.
“Yeah baby”.
Add the debate effects, and it’s 60:40.
Subtract the too good to be true effect, and it’s 56:44.
Add the moralised Liberal effect, and it’s 57:43.
Which should give Labor around 120 seats in a 150 seat Parliament.
Yes he wants to cut tax so we all voluntarily donate money to the construction of clean energy sources, and so we all donate to the construction of new water infrastructure.
This is his grand plan, government via donation.
#216 – William – I seem to remember Galaxy forecast a swing against me of 5% two days before polling day on a sample of abut 500 which fit the local media narrative quite nicely and it never eventuated. If they are not a telemarketing company they should try it – its a profitable line of business to which they would be suited.
I was there for the massive swing against the CLP in the Northern Territory. As soon as Labor got itself a decent leader and the Govt leadership started to look weak – it was all over. Nothing was going to change the result. 20+ years in govt and they got murdered at their first loss.
Yesterday Howard did nothing to enhance his image as a strong leader.
Three influential colomnists on Lateline- No two right wing brain dead colomnists … who don’t believe in Climate Change… time to turn over again… not wasting my time listening to these so called “Influential” people….
On outliers – you would have to think that both Galaxy and this one are likely to be outliers (in opposite directions). But just say the true 2PP was 55 last week and is now 56, the point is that is still very comfortable for Labor. Only the proverbial meteorite, or some unforced Labor error, is likely to change the result now.
William makes a good point about Galaxy though, whether by luck or skill they were actually the only ones who got it right in 2004.
I think the Libs’ biggest single problem with swinging voters (most of whom only use about 1% of their brain to engage with politics) is a simple one: Howard seems too old. Most of their other perceived problems (no agenda, old-fashioned policies on the non-economic issues, etc) derive from this. This is hurting them much more than specific errors like Iraq.
Ackerman’s rants against Rudd continues (check out the comments sections for Ackerman’s responses):
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/political_insects_all_slime_no_spine/
Who are they, I want to know if I should tune in.
My guess is Bolt is one of them
No wonder Howard’s looking so haggard…he’s staring into the abyss, and the abyss is staring back.
The only thing narrowing is the noose, and now we’ll get to see the desperate pussies that didn’t have the cojones to roll the old man get swept aside with him.
The smirk and the mad monk will be in overdrive now, but it’s futile to resist, we have them well and truly in our sights.
Game over Rodent!!!
58!!!!!!!!
As I predicted – the wheels have come off the coalition campaign in week 2.
It will be an historic massacre.
Thommo youre a fool. The Galaxy 53/47 was much more out of kilter than this one.
Bolt, Henderson and Megalogenis.
Marky Marky,
Lateline is produced by the Neo-con wing of the ABC.
has been for many months now.
Yep one right and the other Gerald Henderson…Don’t know anything about the third George Meglomanis ( spelling)… Anyway this is why the media is going downhill.. Fast…….
Henderson is a mystery – how could someone who sounds so reasonable so frequently be completely wrong?
I think people see through Rudd but are still playing with the pollsters.
Piers Akerman
Mon 22 Oct 07 (08:00pm)
.
.
Why should you have to face reality if you work for Rupert?
It was the announcement on the child care rebate that gave this boost. All we need now is the new policy to reduce HECS and it’s in he bag!
HarryH,
Are you the HarryH on top of the GD range?
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php
Newspoll at 58/42 two party preferred to Labor is on the high side, but I don’t read any sort of stunning “recovery” by Rudd from the Galaxy and ACNielson polls last week of around 53-54 to Labor…
http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/2007/10/election-campaign-opinion-polls.html
Alex, childcare would have had a very marginal impact on this poll. The majority of the survey would have been conducted on Friday and Saturday, before the childcare announcement was made.
Kulak indeed Adam. I like you to Adam, youve been quite resilient and “on-message”. If I am a Kulak you must feel like the manager of tractor factory No54 in the Ukraine in 1937.
The Liberal party is the party of conservatism. I would not expect them to do anything more than offer tax cuts, pander to prejudice etc etc
Whatever happened to “the unity of Labour is the hope of the world”?
To quote Pope Leo X “God has given us the papacy we should enjoy it”
If it is to be – I hope theres some panache, some risk taking and some real policy. All governments keep one eye on re-election and should but there is a greater good or purpose (maybe I am naive) – lets hope KR does grasp that nettle.
Evening all – who ate the Ace Stenographers narrowing?
Replace Howard with who? Please tell me.
I wonder if the tightening of the polls in the past week has jolted the public into fearing that Howard might snatch an unlikely victory.
58-42 is incredible. Let me repeat, without sounding boring, that Victoria is a potential holocaust for the coalition. Every Liberal seat in metropolitan Melbourne is “in play”. No Liberal MP is safe, except for Petro Georgiou and Greg Hunt.
Next time you see a QLD or WA state poll that shows the Libs ahead, or about even, consider that this is dragging down a 58-42ish national vote. Then consider what the vote must be in VIC, SA and parts of NSW.
This election will make 1975 look like a picnic.
About Galaxy in 2004 – any pollster that had their final poll within the MoE of the election result was equally right.Actually nailing the exact result is simply pulling off a random fluke – the resolution of polling companies in Australia is simply not that good
Bolt Henderson and George are on lateline. This is fantastic for the Ruddster
Well, I’ve added my bit to Piers’ column, but I doubt it will be published. Referring to the author as a “fat, biased bastard” probably will be frowned on by the moderator..
And, may I add, what a lovely set of numbers…!! I shall ring my volunteers for the 24th with renewed vigour and enthusiasm.
Is this because to run a profitable polling company in Australia you have to keep the sample quite small, and thus keep the margin of error high?
Or is it it related to the fact there are dense urban areas, and thinly populated rural areas that makes the weighting method crucial?
Oh oh, Gerard is confused.
Looks like business as usual
Just saw the good news YOU BLOODY RIPPER.
Right wing apologists. Looking for any way out. Any excuse.
At least Bolt calls like it is. Henderson is an ass
Bolt getting stuck into Henderson – gold!!!!!!!
Gaynor @ 269 –
All the state polling done in South Australia (Labor’s strongest State apparently) shows a swing somewhere between 5-6%. I have not seen any individual booth polling ANYWHERE in SA that shows trends anywhere near 58-42.
Bolt and Henderson are getting stuck into one another. I love it.
what is Bolt saying?
Possum,
Reasonable point about MoEs, however don’t forget that MoE itself is quite an arbitrary concept. We all talk about MoEs that are based on a 95% confidence interval, but in theory you could equally well use 90% or 80% in which case you’d get a lower MoE.
Commercial and practical reality is that bragging rights go to the company that gets closest, unless the companies’ results are extremely close to each other.
The implications of this – even if rogue – are huge.
Our pathetic, risible, compliant media will now be jostling with unseemly haste for the last yellow rubber dinghy off HMAS Howard.
Watch them now, gasping and waddling their fat insider Canberra ars*s down the plank, pushing old ladies into to the drink to be first snake to toast the new regime.
Hey, this is for you, GG, et al: Thanks a pantload for keeping us “informed” lately, losers.
You know what?
F*ck you.
George is saying that having The Gimp next to Howard isn’t working.
You leave all that to us, Edward. The Party never makes mistakes, you know that. You just make sure you pack some warm clothes. It’s a long way to Vorkuta.
Outstanding result for Rudd, but even more than this the poll reflects how badly the Liberals have misread the public. Their tax policy was a quite naked attempt to play politics with people’s disposable incomes – something the Liberals are now completely notorious for doing. As if that wasn’t enough, their demeanour last week was generally smart-arsed and occasionally puerile – and completely insulting to the public at large.
Rudd is a great campaigner, for sure and today’s media-moments were a perfect illustration of this. But the dire problem the Liberals have is themselves are now the root of their problems: this is the basic message of the polls.
For the public, the Liberals are the problem and Kevin Rudd is the solution.
Bolt vs Henderson – they’re eating their own LMAO
ShowsOn, its not only their small samples, and their weighting – but the lack of what some professional political pollsters are doing elsewhere in the world at the moment – targeted demographic polling.
In the US for instance, a lot of work goes into finding which specific groups are swinging and as a result they ’super sample’ those groups and fold it onto their broader polling.
Spiros @ 246:
If Rudd started using Lynx body spray, what Effect would that have?
Who the hell is this Gerard Henderson? He’s hopeless…
Yes, the Libs are a two headed monster biting itself in the arse.
Bolt is blaming channel nine. Hendersons attacking Ray Martin.
Channel nine is off the leash since packer has gone. The right wingers are breaking ranks.
Neo-Cons at ABC? I would think quite the opposite. It is blood sport between Bolt and Henderson. Just into the second week and we see the future of Liberal factionalism.
He’s an old DLP type who used to work for Howard.
Lol 284 Adam, that was genuinely funny. A sense of humour in victory perhaps?
Bolt calls it as it is…. You should look at his looney colomns… Bolt is an idoit…
245
Future Pollie Says:
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Before you all rudd-gasm and stain the bedsheets…. The final result is going to be MUCH closer than this latest newspoll suggests. Next week the polls are going to show a shortening again, and headlines of “Howard makes a comebackâ€.
Are you sticking by the ‘narrowing gap’ thesis in the face of a Newspoll indicating a pull back the other way Future ?
You may be right in speculating the next five weeks going to JWH then Rudd then back again so Shanahan can scream “Howard makes a stupendous comeback” again, and maybe again.
It may be closer, even much closer on election night, but at this stage in the game JWH will have to have at least 2 very big cannon balls to fire before election day to do anything near addressing the very consistent 55+ 2PP Rudd has held, give or take, for 10 MONTHS now.
Im not saying it is not possible to pull back, but it would make startling election history and my money is on Rudd, comfortably so.
ESJ, if i may, I suggest you go to your cellar and find a couple of very good bottles of wine and a companion to share it with..the next few days will be rough for those expecting to sky to fall in under a Rudd Government.
Im not suggesting you are among these doomsdayers, I just think your cellar and a good wine might keep you from hearing the moans and groans at street level on election night if Rudd happens to cross the line in front.
LOL!
Dyno – all pollsters in Oz (well the good ones anyway) use a 95% CI, and a large sample in the last week to get bragging rights.
But in most years, all of them nail the primaries within the MoE, sometimes they differ in preferences – but the pollster that gets closest to the actual results, considering the methodologies they use here – it’s a fluke. It’s a toss of the coin.
Possum @287,
I’ve suspected this for a while, our published polling does not really enable any but the most superficial understanding of what it is that makes people swing their votes from one week to the next.
I see Anthony (way back @ #74), you can put it in the URL. I like the look of 60-40.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2007/calculator/?swing=national&national=12.7&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringfactor=1
Henderson and Bolt are going at Ray Martin and the Worm. They’re hopeless. Punching at shadows.
Well, if ESJ is to be dispatched to the Gulag I think he should have some company. I reckon we could fill an A-380 in super-economy mode with the various former cabinet ministers, former ABC board members, former heads of Commonwealth departments and other counter-revolutionaries. We can all dream a little…
OHHH MY GAWD!!!!!!!! i went out for a couple of hours and came back to this! it may just be an outer but i’m going to enjoy it tonight, worse case scenario we’re back to 55-45 if it’s an outer — but i’m hoping not, this is before the debate reaction is in too, MAMMA MIA!!!! i’m gobsmacked, i’ll need six valium and a hormone patch to help me sleep tonight.
Lefty E throws down the gauntlet in preparation for a Stanley Brucing of John Howard.
Henderson is a Liberal party stooge pretending to give in depth independent political ideas. Rubbish. They are blaming the worm again. Even though the poll was finished before the debate.
To borrow a phrase from the 2006 US election: Its schardenfreud-licious!
I really hope they have Downer on Lateline tonight.
We ought to remember that even well conducted polls can be subject to random variation. If the error of this is say +/-2% then the real result might be 56/44 2PP. Still, that would seem to be about the best interpretation possible for the Liberals on this result. That could mean that either other recent polls were unrealistically good for Howard or Labor’s tax plan has seen a bounce back meaning no gain for the Government. Any gain on top of that from the debate is just gravy. Rudd’s strategy is really working; he just needs to remain disciplined. If anything, Howard loosing his cool may even widen the result IMO.
If this holds true till election day, all those poor liberal staffers…not a government job to hide in at state or federal level. I wonder how many Liberal lawyers would get real jobs in major law firms?
What will the reaction be? Fear hasn’t worked (not a Tampa in sight), the interest rate promise has blown their economic credibility, policy was never a strong suit, so.. Let us assume this will put a mob of ruthless unprincipled control freaks into desperate panic mode. I imagine dirt squads are now trawling through every possible misdeed of any Labor figure of the past ten years.
Bluebottle – It will be French champagne followed by a delicate souffle on election night regardless of the outcome.
A Rudd victory will be financially beneficial to moi.
Call me a rogue but I “invested” substantially when the Newspoll was 59-41 and the Liberals panicked.
True Dyno – you’ve got to dig into the data a fair bit, and not just the polling data to pull that out. And you have to take in inter-temporal effects – our polling companies dont really do that.But so saying they dont really have to – our entire political polling community is quite unsophisticated compared to other places in the world.
Possum,
I know they all use a 95% CI when quoting the MoE, as do most statisticians in most industries, but my point is that 95% is just an arbitrary number – it is used more because of convention than because it is inherently better than any other number.
But enough of this minutiae! However you look at it tonight is an outstanding result for Rudd.
WTF? They’ve forgotten that the opposition leader is Kevin Rudd?
Well done ESJ, a worthy investment.
StanS,
what?
Does this mean Nicole Cornes wins ?
I am reminded of a recent quote (from I think, Michael Brissendon -bragging rights?). Paraphrased: if they waited for Keating in 96 with baseball bats, in 07 they are waiting for J-HO with slippers and a nice hot cup of tea.
Henderson is now rubbishing the polls. He says libs can win on 48.5. What is the deal.
Make the most of it Edward. This time next year you’ll be selling your gold teeth for turnips.
58 Tpp, for goodness sake. Let it be so. Lateline is so amusing as some of the apologists for the LNP try, unbelievably, to claw it back.
Gerard Henderson – the eternal (half-hearted?) optimist
Possum,
Your reassurances last week on the lib tax policy were spot on, it seems. The liberals and their cheerleaders were delusional afterall…:)
No Gerard – the polls are consistent.For 60 polls worth of consistency.It’s just the deluded knobjockeys like you that cant understand stats 101 that look confused.
Fair dinkum
Counting nine months forward from tonight I wonder how many lefties and right wing Labor voters will be sporned this very evening on the back of that 58-42 Newspoll: not that we leftards need an excuse to defer our most basic instincts: replenish or perish !!
Shorter Hendo: The polls are not consistent.
(Doesn’t understand it all, poor man)
Bolt is right again, nothing positive coming out of camp liberal. Tony Jones is enjoying himself he is laughing at Costello’s stupid tax cut attacks. They are desperate.
Bolt is at least trying to face reality. Henderson is in denial. Good point made though that people don’t dislike Howard, they just don’t care about him anymore. They’ve turned off and aren’t even listening to him anymore. That’s going to be a very difficult thing to turn around.
Can we please see some amusing lefty journalists on Lateline for a change?
And I know this is an outlier, but oh so fun
the Honeymoon continues
Just remember folks that the error is 3%, that all the results for the last 7 months could have been achieved by taking multiple independent samples on the same day from a population with a real voting intention around 56%.
Boy is this result going to entertaining.
Labor 30+ seats.
Henderson needs to retire to the smoking room with his hero JWH.
that performance was totally embarrassing.
TJones was treating the discussions as a joke.
For EStj
Brünnhildes:
Fliegt heim, ihr Raben!
Raunt es eurem Herren,
was hier am Rhein ihr gehört!
An Brünnhildes Felsen
fahrt vorbei! -
Der dort noch lodert,
weiset Loge nach Walhall!
Denn der Götter Ende
dämmert nun auf.
So – werf’ ich den Brand
in Walhalls prangende Burg.
Fly home, you ravens!
Recount to your master
what you have heard here by the Rhine!
Pass
by Brünnhilde’s rock:
direct Loge, who still
blazes there, to Valhalla;
for the end of the gods
is nigh.
Thus do I throw this torch
at Valhalla’s vaulting towers
The final act of Götterdämmerung (and 16.5 hours of Opera)
Blindy at 318 – it was my pleasure to sooth your doubts
OK I’m going back to filling out fake postal votes now.
*vanishes in puff of improbability*
Yep,
Polls are consistent.
60 polls in a row (or whatever it is) with the lowest Labor 2PP being 53, and most 55 or more.
Chances of Labor being 52 or lower (which is what the Libs need to have any chance whatsoever) must be considered remote, unless all polls are systemically missing something.
Question to the psephologists: have the polls ever all been grossly wrong? Someone told me it happened when John Major was re-elected in 1992, is that right?
My take is that politicians all have an expiry date. There are no invincibles – Menzies doesn’t count, becuase he didn’t face a credible opposition.
Look what happened to Keating, he was treasurer for nearly 8 years, and the voters gave him ‘93 because Hewson was a goose. But that didn’t mean they weren’t willing to cut him down 3 years later.
Howard just doesn’t get it, it seems that he honestly believes his own hype, and doesn’t realise that it is actually just spin bought from Crosby-Textor.
Evening all …
For those of you wondering about SA polling (there’s a few comments in this thread I see), I got polled by the Advertiser tonight – for the seat of Hindmarsh. The results will presumably be in tomorrows ’tiser (or Wed.) I guess this will round out the Advertisers polling of SA marginals.
they rang me at about 6pm (SA time), asked me who my 1st preference would be, who it was in 2004, how likely I would be to change my vote & finally my age demographic. That was all & it took no more than 2 minutes.
cheers,
I’m much obliged.
Rudd: “What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women. …”
Just heard the result. Not over yet but what a nice set of numbers!!!
I’m sitting here in Malaysia on a business trip and I am stoked by this news. The worst bit is that mt wife texted to say that my Kevin07 teeshirt has arrived in the post today and I can’t wear it for two weeks!
312
DOGS Says:
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:57 pm
Does this mean Nicole Cornes wins ?
As Adam has pointed out before DOGS, yes even the most hopeless candidate can score a seat on the back of a State wide swing where seats you would logically think impossible to gain fall like dominoes, it has precedent.
I just hope she can learn to do some actual research before she gives her maiden speech in the HOR IF she is lucky enough to ride the wave into Parliament House.
So what was all that carry on about ALP losing all it’s marginal seats in WA??
First thing, the scandal over worm gate is not included. Second thing the ALP/Unions haven’t launched their massive advertising campaign yet. This will blow out even further. Just wait. The last two weeks are when it starts. You ain’t seen nothin yet.
Yes Adam, Glen’s off burying some money in a jar, in preparation for the peasant economy to follow.
Incentivation 08: “I used to milk cow, now I OWN cow!”
‘ I “invested†substantially ‘
Edward,
You gave me grief the other day when all I did was mention the betting markets and it turns out you are betting “substantially”. A little hypercritical of you. Looks like it turns out that you’re the one who is mesmerised by money.
Do you think Labor will start negative adverts? Why bother if the polls stay this good!?
OMFG! I’m shocked! This is the best the Rodent and Captain Smirky can get out of their supposed wonderous tax policy? LMAO
I’m too afraid to believe this. If this is the actual election result, the Coalition will be decimated to something like 30 seats. Even Lard Arse Hockey would lose if this sort of swing was replicated.
So, will there be renewed mutterings tomorrow about Howard’s leadership? The problem for them is that Costello would probably do even worse.
Coalition: screwed!
P.S: Glen is strangely absent, has been so since last night! I guess it’s all too depressing for him LOL
ShowsOn,
When the next “narrowing” occurs, Labor will crank up its negative advertising. That said, it seems that Labor (or the ACTU) have started running some negative advertising today already.
Oh, quite GG: thats the other clar implicaiton of fat Rudd polls at this point: the Stanley comes home to Bruce.
Bennelong time coming!
Dyno – using the type of polling done in Australia, the polls that I’m aware of have never been as wrong as is required to be for the Coalition to be in a leading position.
That’s not to say that things cant change – they always can, but the longer the polls go on, obviously the less likely that is to happen.
This 58-42 is just business as usual, as its been since February, with a long run mean ALP vote of 56-57.
Well, the dead rat did bounce for a minute or so, before twtiching once or twice and going to sleep (in the biblical sense). I was happy before but after Lateline’s discussion between Henderson, Megalogenis and Bolt I thought I’d died and gone to heaven. Bolt and Henderson at each other. Henderson says the polls are inconsistent, and Galaxy had the coalition close to a win. Maybe someone sold him some of that stuff Costello was using on Sunday morning. Henderson particularly doesn’t get it at all. People have had enough of Howard – he’s offended enough people via wedges and the rest of it to construct his very own anti-Howard coalition – which seems to have a s$%tload of libs in it, as well as the rest of us. Kennett managed the same trick in Victoria, although he did it more quickly, since we’re all Bolsheviks down here.
I should have ordered the Moet last week (although it now appears that I’ll have to burn the house down after I’ve drunk it in order to satisfy traditional mores).
Has anyone ever sacked the leader in the middle of an election before? That would be fun!
Possum should also be fun tomorrow.
As an esteemed Coogee dweller just pointed out to me, imagine what’s going to happen to the Libs once the election is lost. It will be ugly. BTW – where’s Dolly and the rest of talented front bench been this last few days? Is there anyone left who doesn’t send the worm south?
Dyno @331 – a maths/philosophical point – the polls are historical. All things being equal K-RUD is a shoe-in. But quote Donald Rumsfeld, ” We don’t know what we don’t know”. Think Tampa. Think 9-11. I am not saying that these things will happen again, but mathematical prediction relies on the future being much like the past. We should all have a Zen moment, take a breath, and then look at the facts as they are. The future is predictable but essentially unknown.
Hi ESJ,
Sir, I suggest that you put your money where your mouth is & REDEEM yourself. Recant all this right wing tripe that you have espoused in your daily blog & come to the forces of ‘the light’ & leave the darkness behind.
I once mention that you really want to vote Labor & deep down I know you will….all will be forgiven, REPENT for the kingdom of heaven is at hand.
Your road to Damascus is HERE!!
I did say Zen? Not Senior?
Well I always thought General Dennikin was an underated figure in Russian history. Someone has to be there for the counter-revolution.
Labor doesn’t need to go negative. Leave the anti Workchoices ads to the ACTU. Rudd needs to stay positive on education, child care, climate change etc. That’s what won him the debate last night, his optimism about the future in comparison to the Rodent’s carping and blatant personal attacks.
Future pollie #278
I agree, but SA is better than WA or QLD.
Newspoll state breakdowns in NSW had it 61-39. Victoria was 60-40.
But forget the polls. Why on earth is Kevin Rudd visiting electorates like Casey, Aston & Goldstein? These seats aren’t just safe, they are heartland. Socio-economic upper-middle class electors that, under normal circumstances, will never vote Labor.
The anecdotal evidence is compelling. The Liberals are stuffed.
This result should restore any lost faith in the judgement of the Australian public.
Most of the time (on average) they get it right.
Glen is out getting a tattoo which says: “Such Is Life”
For a quick update on betting markets,
Centrebet is now out to $1.50/$2.60 (from $1.58)
Portlandbet is out to $1.50/$2.60 (from $1.60)
Sportingbet is out to $1.50/$2.55 (from $1.60)
These have all moved out in the last couple of hours.
LOL!
STOP IT!
Henderson is foundering, lost
Tonight’s Lateline was quite lively.
I think Henderson and Bolt’s assessment of Ray Martin’s performance was absolutely correct. Channel 9 should be ashamed of their woeful incompetence.
OK I’ve just started watching Lateline (30 minutes later in Adelaide) and not a Downer in sight, hehehe. Does anyone think the Australian would have tipped them off? I can’t imagine Liberals would have been queueing up to front TV tonight with these figures to discuss.
Gerard Henderson’s concerned look is trully touching. He is a kindly old figure – the voters just haven’t thought things through…
BTW, since this means that my vote in Sturt might count for something after all (career change for Chris Pyne), does anyone know if this would tip Downer out? Then mt joy would be complete.
Probably the upper side of the band, but still reckon the actual distribution is 56/44.
@356
that should Labor has shortened, not out to. “Out to” implies a lengthening of odds.
HAHHAHAHHAH! When are you leaving for Burma / Cuba / North Korea?
AG01
It is too late for me my son.
Yeah, to be realistic, the best result Labor can achieve is probably more like 55:45. The swing won’t be uniform either: you might find some huge swings in supposedly safer Coalition seats, but smaller swings to the ALP in very marginal seats?
Better not to get too cocky: remember another Tampa or 9/11 could be round the corner. I’m sure Kevin Rudd is smart enough not to get complacent.
However, all this is very heartening to the average Labor supporter.
Henderson went too far. We all know where his allegiences lie, but calling black ‘white’ just makes him look completely ludicrous.
Also, is it just me, or has falling in with the Insight crowd civilised the Bolter somewhat?
Bluebottle if she makes to HOR hope she still got the nice little frock showing the belly.
306
Edward StJohn Says:
Call me a rogue but I “invested†substantially when the Newspoll was 59-41 and the Liberals panicked.
So political ideology really comes second to the cash? A true opportunistic capitalist at heart.
ESJ: anything from the Senator? I’ve got a hankering for some counter-revolutionary disinfo (don’t tell the Party!)…
344
Swing Lowe Says:
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:09 pm
ShowsOn,
When the next “narrowing†occurs, Labor will crank up its negative advertising. That said, it seems that Labor (or the ACTU) have started running some negative advertising today already.
I am told the Worchoices issue will get plenty of Labor Party attention in television advertising is due course..depending on which State you are sitting in ShowsOn. Here in QLD the focus will be different to that in NSW and different again in SA etc ect. but Workchoices is the trump card.
No 363
The issue was not the worm. But the fact that Martin was accusing the ABC and the Liberal Party of misdemeanour without evidence is pompous and indicative of an underlying agenda.
Rudd was campaigning today in Robertson(N.S.W Central Coast).
Perhaps even the despised Belinda Neal has a chance of winning?
Henderson is a failed Jesuit – I don’t know which particular vice led to his failure
Make no mistake: Lib Ministers will be falling like 9 pins on the 24th.
No one is safe, not even Downer.
Bluebottle – in due SEASON.
In response to Dyno (331)…
The UK election of 1992 was my first as a voter, so I remember it rather well – wikipedia says this about the opinion polls…
In other words, people didn’t want to admit that they were going to vote Tory. That said, there was a fair bit of movement in the polls during the campaign (eight days before the election Labour was well ahead, for example), so perhaps the tight victory for the Tories was not that surprising.
I was walking in the Lake District that day (I’d voted by post), and remember turning on the election broadcast to be told that the exit poll predicted a hung parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. Apparently that was my ‘Don’s party’ moment – but at least I got to enjoy 1997!
Just typed in Possum’s average into Antony Green’s calculator, and found myself asking the question: Who was Stanley Melbourne Bruce’s Treasurer?
No wonder Howard and Co are so uptight about the proper teaching of Australian histories in schools. They’re about to be part of it.
I emailed Kevin Rudd a few days ago with some suggestions for turning around his initial disappointing week. Just got the reply from his office…I am glad to see that he followed my advice, which runs anlong the lines of what many have been suggesting that he do in this blog.
Don’t rule out a further boost from the debate – though it is difficult to concieve. Unlike previous debates there were two factors which were unique, awful for the libs and got lots of traction in the press: the censoring of the worm and the big dumb smirk and lord Downer sitting in the front row interjecting. I think this alone will consolidate this lead in the next poll.
i think we now know why Andrew Robb was so dishevelled and completely wacky on Sky in the lead-up to the debate.
10% margin in Lib heartland Goldstein….Rudd is campaigning there….this doofus Robb is gonna look a fool on the 24th.
could tell by his body language and his inanity on Sunday that he was a desperate man.
I think Kevin should ask for an extension of the poll date. Do them slowly. FIve weeks to decimation is just not long enough for me. Implosion imminent. No wonder Howard looked so grumpy last night.
With primaries of 51/38 (thanks to the polling results machine Martin from my blog), it’s THAT figure that will send shivers through the Libs, particularly since ACN has the ALP primary at 48. That’s only a 3 point difference, but where the 48 represents the probable low point of the ALP primary (usual caveats apply) as the Libs jumped the gun and pump primed momentum with the tax policy.
371 Martin seemed to have plenty of evidence and there is no doubt that it was all done to protect JWH.
Oakeshott,
So many sins to choose from. Which one of the 7 “deadlies” do most politicians succumb to?
Paul K,
Very uncouth, gambling is for the common people.
Just Me,
Yes certain things are a good bet, eg childcare companies for instance.
Bolt just wants to be able to say “There I told you so. Youse should have given Howard the flick, installed my little mate Pete and called the election straight away.”
He’ll dine out on it for years.
and Joe Hockey was throwing out pork in North Sydney the other day lol
good on ya Joe…you big bear you
But the fallacy of Bolt’s argument is that discarding Howard weeks before an election is potential suicide.
Hope is the first step along the road to disappointment, Labor win on the day then I’ll believe it. A third on my life haunted by a manic Mr Sheen, god I hope it’s about to end
Worchoices , aha, try WorkChoices.
Anyway, I am hoping the last week of Labor advertising will be ALL positive messages about Labor’s policy and the nitty gritty of how it will directly help the family budget [childcare, petrol, mortgages, housing crisis,wage/rights for workers]and climate change, Iraq and Indigenous Affairs for the ‘wet’ liberals.
384
Edward StJohn Says:
Yes certain things are a good bet, eg childcare companies for instance.
Indeed, as are funeral companies.
Settle down. Fat ladies don’t sing unless prodded, in my experience.
Labor’s found a way to ’stack’ Newspoll, if this is pre-Debate. I’ll take MOE anytime, after what appeared to be a pretty ordinary first week of campaign for KRudd.
Maybe punters rejected Rodent’s bribe, but bought Kevvie’s alternative. Must be the tax policy, with Labor ’spinning it’ to education and broadband for ‘working families’. Right on message.
Nothing like a touch of ‘class war’ against the over-$180K- and what about Kevvie’s line that ‘it doesn’t matter to Howard and Me’, we get better than $180K, but what about you poor punters!! Beautiful!
Well I just found another 3 Billion to throw at you for the same total price tag as the Rodent!
Rudd ought to be drug tested to see if Julia’s given him some Go Juice! If it was a horse race the stewards would call in the bookie’s sheets and seriously question ALP’s previous poor run!
The Faithful just wanted to see a bit of ‘mongrel’ from Kevvie and the ‘great’ debate had just enough where he needed it, especially to withstand the Smirk & Dolly Downer heckling! Thought they were in question time, controlling the proceedings, the Born to Rule dickheads!
You’ve got ‘ticker’ Kevvie – it’s these second-rate pretenders in Team Rodent that have no ‘ticker’, behaving like the errant schoolboys they really are!
If the Libs were a horse, the Equine Flu would have them barking like the rabid dogs they are! It’s time for them to be put out of their misery!Not even Percy Sykes in his heyday could save them!
Now Rudd can afford to take time for careful aim at the next target ( good on you John Faulkner, they said you were in the ‘lockup’ with Kevvie – the debate strategy showed your involvement).
But to change the subject…..
Saw Julia up close tonight – no wonder the young boys love her – very stylish and hair just right ( thanks Mr Mathieson). Yes I know it’s sexist piggery, but what do the ‘great unwashed’ vote on? – my young spy says she’s a h…bag and he seems to be very connected to youth culture, so Team Rodent better hope they succeeded in cutting heaps of kiddies off the electoral roll.
Some are just so disengaged from politics that they don’t enrol. Add those who don’t want to be found who inhabit the ‘cash economy’ or into drugs etc. and it could add up to a big loss of votes for Labor. If the 18-25’s go 70/30 to Labor, it might have been the cleverest ( and nearly the dirtiest) trick Rodent has pulled. Thanks Senator Abetz, if you are the one who thought of it first! Another outrageous assault on democracy!
If the Liberals are throwing pork in North Sydney then they must be in diabolical strife.
What about those two bible bashers in Hughes & Greenway. Are they safe?
Yes Just Me you could question how canny TR was in selling out of job placement too!
Perhaps it involved a young abbot and former jesuit? Oops..
ACA/Nine showed the SMS complete with mobile number of the sender, and the behind the scenes footage on both 9/ABC is telling as well- seeing Mike Reilly on the phone before warning Nine over the intercom proves he was speaking to Lib HQ.
Also KUdos to nine for going to Sky’s off air feed, if they pulled that, they would’ve effectively blacked out the debate to EVERYONE.
And that would’ve made Howard look even more stupid.
I’m still with LTEP. The memory of ‘98 is still scorched deep in my mind. I won’t be happy until I see the rodent kicked out.
.
.
Amanda Vanstone isn’t even in Australia at the moment.
If the odds were right, a few bob on the Libs changing horses might be worth it.
So Bolty’s crossing the Rhine, huh?
What say, chaps and chappettes….Is there a case for ‘extraordinary rendition’ to the Russian quarter?
Even Tony was mentioning the Rodent’s facial twitchiness.
Ding Dong the witch is dead
To the argument that Ray has no right to be accusing the Liberals of pulling the feed – what utter garbage! If this is a moral argument about democracy he is totally within his rights to come to that conclusion. If the little man chose not to make silly rules and wedge himself he’d have been ok. Howard’s unsound rules gave him what he deserved. The Liberals (only) wanted no worm, someone attempted to cut off the worm, ergo…
No 392
Wrong. Why would they bother spending millions in Griffith, the seat of Kevin Rudd?
Dangerous @ 376 makes some good points. It over yet but:
- we have compulsory voting
- Rudd ain’t the Welsh Windbag
- The Hun ain’t The Sun
Those numbers will be a killer for Howard – it is really starting to look like the game is over for him. Of course, there’s still a few weeks to go, anything could happen – but what? It would have to be something like left field (like a terrorist attack) and even then, he couldn’t be sure that would necessarily work for him politically. Their other hope is some sort of major stumble from Rudd, but frankly, Howard looks much more likely to slip up. Throw in a rate rise early next month and there will be a domolition on 24 November. My guess at the moment is Labor winning about 30 seats.
Possum,
I would other pollsters around the English speaking world have it easier since they are looking at voluntary FPTP voting; I suspect compulsory preferential voting makes things a bit harder – after all in FPTP situations you do not have to estimate Two Party Preferred, the ‘primary’ votes suffice.
Newspoll, Galaxy and Morgan are all rubbish. AC Nielsen is the poll to watch.
Still, it will be fun to watch the Libs run around like headless chooks for a few days…
If I was a casting agent for, say, Dickens plays, I’d go out of my way to get Henderson to play Scrooge. He is utterly humourless.
People who act like you all have when a poll goes their way have shown their side of politics does not deserve to govern one iota…there is still 5 more weeks of the election to go more than enough time for Krudd to implode so i wouldnt start celebrating just yet your HUBRIS has been disgraceful utterly disgraceful…
Doc – you’re spot on!
394
Edward StJohn Says:
Yes Just Me you could question how canny TR was in selling out of job placement too!
Only in Australia. And only for the legitimate reason of avoiding conflicts of interest for her hubby.
Glen and HUBRIS are back.
Come on Glen, come across with the Bolter! His shoulder twitch bit was pretty funny.
Bolt, Henderson, Megalogenis – The Weirdest Brady Bunch
(Pity Henderson was live in the studio)
A beautiful set of figures!!!!!!!!!
No Paul the Hubris started on post 1 some sanity has arrived…me!
Hey, Glen’s back!
HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS HUBRIS
I think that will cover the next 24 hours.
Hooray! Glen is back!
I believe denial is the first stage, and anger the second.
Anyway, tremendous result for the ALP. And I do agree with Glen: Kevvy, don’t let him go. He IS a clever, cunning politician. He’s also got an impossible work ethic and he’s tough as nails.
Don’t let him go – don’t keep pushing for victory for even a second. We can’t risk anything.
Glen is missing some keys on his computer. Would whoever stole them please return them to him c/o the Liberal Party.
Hi, what’s the current interest rate, and 2pp Newspoll breakdown?
No 412
The remarkable hubris from ALP apologists is quite pathetic. They only seem to trust the polls when it goes there way. If there’s turn in favour of the coalition, it is mere statistical error. If in favour of the ALP, it is a crushing victory.
Hmmm. Hypocrisy and double standards continue.
Glen. what happened to Wenck?
This is not one poll Glen it is sixty of them. The Krudd is steady.
@ 403 Generic Person Says (some what hubristically)
Well one drop in on an electorate by the PM does not a marginal make. I think the Libs just might thnink that spending a bit there will keep Kevvie at home for a bit. It’s a payback for the unsporting anount of grief the ALP have given the Libs in your backyard, Bennelong.
who looks more dead?
henderson or ruddock
Howard is pathetic! Today’s slogan: the ALP front bench is 70% dominated by evil union bosses blah blah blah
I predict the Liberals will go even more negative, they’ll probably have Young Liberals trawling through the Rudd family’s garbage bin.
I remember the 1997 UK Election, which I watched on BBC World. The swing to Tony Blair was so great, the Conservatives were losing seats with 20-30% margins. Michael Portilo for instance lost an ultra safe Tory seat in Enfield, London. The same thing could possibly happen here in 2007, a string of Coalition ministers are out, although not Phil Ruddock: the revolution will really have come if Labor ever wins my seat of Berowra.
On a particularly important matter – what’s with that jacket Bolt had on? Off to some garden party or something? Insipid really – like these numbers for the libs.
Glen (409) – Does anyone remember Glen and his mates carrying on like a pork chops when the Galaxy poll came out recently? What is that other word staring with ‘h’ again?
For all you non-Sydneysiders Gerard Henderson is the Executive director of the Sydney institute. It is is neo-con think thank http://www.thesydneyinstitute.com.au/
Don’t be fooled by the photo of Julia. Henderson wrote the authorised history of the liberal party and is working on Johhny’s History project for high schools. He writes a column for the SMH and is an all round Howard Stooge. I think he was a staffer somewhere too…Adam probably knows where.
HH – good point. I might get them both to audition.
Dave from Albury
Yes. It’s the declaration of the poll. In your seat. Usually on a Saturday, a small group. The returning officer declares the result of the poll. Then – and only then – can one say the deed is done.
cheers
Henderson was Howard’s speechwriter at one point.
Mark, was I believe he was an advisor to Howard too?
Am I right in thinking at the preferential voting system accentuates swing? That is, in a FPTP election, votes can be wasted (in that the winner need not gain 50% of the votes), whereas here one must (eventually) state a preference. Therefore, if a swing is on, it is amplified by the system.
Or am I talking rubbish?
EXACTLY! It seems you’ll have to go to North Korea, Burma, or Cuba.
Burgey @ 427 I think Bolt borrowed it from Richie Benaud.
No 429
If you’re implying that rabid left wing influences are more preferable, then I wholly disagree.
The mission statements and assessments of state education departments indicate that education serves as a primary vehicle for social change, rather than learning. Ridiculous.
Holy crap.
51 to 38 on primaries.
That’s gotta hurt.
That jacket was more Willy Wonka than Richie I think.
Dr Earle Grafton Christmas Page was Stanley Bruce’s treasurer, He was also DeputyPM, leader of the Country Party and member for Cowper.
From the hints going round I think Abbott’s big health announcement will be paying hospitals on a fee for service basis through local trusts. This is the basic concept of the English National Health, which is known for it’s petty squables, enormous beaurocracy and the 2nd worst level of Health care in the EU. Of course the Poms don’t complain much because it is free at the point of service
Soon we will be able to say Tony “fee for service” Abbott
Generic Person,
Hard to swim against the tide isn’t it?
# 360 – re: Chris Pyne career change – I don’t know whether to think “Singing Detective” or “Blue Velvet”.
Having one post to say YOU BEWDY does not constitute Hubris having 10 or 15 posts all saying that is Hubris Gary you twit…there is a difference but hey…
438
Ashley Says:
Holy crap.
51 to 38 on primaries.
See, I told you not to panic.
Labor does not need to go with anything negative if the polls stand up. Why break a working machine with something that will bring uncertain results? Negative has proved negative for the LNP – it should be a lesson to Labor.
People have been following Kev strongly from the very begining because he was positive, future, positive and avoided every opportunity to engage in anything negative.
The do need to have make sure they keep planning to get every single vote and every single seat that they can. Keeping in mind a possible future DD.
Great poll but a long way to go, $20 billion to spend – can’t imagine, although it would be fantastic, that this will be the margin at the election.
The other worry for mine is Bush has an itchy trigger finger with Iran in his sights – when will he go??? (and i really hope he doesn’t) he is desperate as well. Any chance Howard is egging him on to do it in the next 4 weeks???
In the mean time, can relax a bit after last weeks Galaxy poll and the nerves that generated.
Sweet dreams of victory tonight
Nah, he already has a backup gig – He’s the Flight Centre Pilot
http://www.flightcentre.com.au
Generic Person
Granny Smith would be rolling in her grave in Bennelong. Howard strikes at the heart of workers. He would dismantle every shred of job security and eradicate every workers rights. 2% is a statistical error. I would have given you the number if the following polling showed last weeks result, but it did not. It went back to the original gap which had preceded it and had started over 12 months ago.
427 Burgey
Exactly – what was that?
Is that sort of thing fashionable in South Africa at the moment?
Kudos for not looking or sounding like the rest of them though…I hear there’s a shortage of pinstripe as a result of a recent market plunge……
Glen, I give you points for not running away and hiding. You’re totally outnumbered here, but it takes guts to keep fronting up.
Mate, embrace the magic, jump ship and join us on Team Rudd.
You’re a smart bloke, I think you know in your heart of hearts that the Coalition are dead in the water.
We all know Richie doesn`t stir from the (admittedly wide-ranging)possibilities of the white/off-white/cream/ivory or the beige.
447 – that’s right! I knew I’d seen him somewhere before…
BTW The Sydney Institute was where Howard did his “symbolism” speech on Reconciliation and Sol Lebevic (speeling) talked about the “soft” Labor vote and where Hugh Mc Kay said the polls were reflecting Australians waking up from a long sleep.
Imacca,
“What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women. …â€
That is a quote from the Iliad isn’t it.
So is Rudd the Trojan Horse??
No 441
The usual anti-Howard tirade on online blogs is irrelevant.
In the latter years of the Hawke/Keating era Henderson took a course of reasonable pills for a while but like a person brought up as a Jesuit he’s reverted to dogma as he approaches the end of his life.
And he is probably the most precious commentator I have ever seen. His skin is gossamer thin.
Ruddock is the Sith Lord.
I can’t wait to see how Shanahan spins this 58-42 2PP poll in the GG tomorrow morning.
Maybe he will do what others have done and try to draw attention away from the actual debate result to the childish shrill of the National Pretenders Club having a la la about the ‘legality’ or otherwise of the worm {BRING BACK THE WORM} and Ray Fartin defending the ‘good name’ of channel eddy or parrot Costellos ‘hole’ in the Swan tax package.
Anything to distract the punter away from reality and give the GG some hope of flogging a few more ‘gap narrows’ newspapers before election day.
If JWH can get back from here I will tip my hat to a bloody genius [political] and get very drunk on the Yarra River with my clumsy brother.
So is Rudd the Trojan Horse??
No. Bhuddha, Sun Tzu, and Tintin rolled into one.
Bummer
Not happy Jan!
Poor William will be hoping for some Narrowing after this…..great polls for the ALP are horrible for his bandwidth.
The Doctor @ 454 … Close, but no. It’s from Conan the Barbarian.
GP @ 421 – I can’t speak for anyone else, but for me it isn’t hubris, it’s that after 11 long years we’ve had 10 months of polls which have given us hope, and now everytime there’s a poll I for one await it with trepidation.
So when Labor gets good numbers it’s a kind of joyous relief that things haven’t turned like the media have been saying they would.
I can’t recall Labor having an election campaign poll number this high – ever. Are there records going back to 1983? That might be the only campaign which may have gone close to a number like this.
HH one would be a fool to believe the Coalition cannot win from here but one would also be a fool for thinking the Coalition can win if it remains this far behind in the polls i am a realist and i understand it is harder for us to win a 5th term than for Labor to win so the odds are stacked against us and unless Howard can have a radically popular policy on housing then we may be sunk but there will be polls out left right and centre though i would of thought we beat Labor in week one but on first results it appears we did not
Glen, I was genuinely holding out the olive branch to your good self.
Both classic epics though RGee.
Who keeps talking about me!!!!!!!!??????
I wonder if Kevin is celebrating the good poll result with a vintage bit of ear wax he had saved?
Surely you know this should be more than one sentence?
Currently it is zero sentences because it doesn’t have a full-stop.
As someone remarked previously Bolt is repositioning himself with an eye to a viable future. He’s clearly gone soft on the ‘insiders’ – this week fran kelly and the guy from the tele got under my skin a whole lot more
I do not doubt your intentions HH there is no doubt it was an olive branch but i refuse to concede the election is lost just yet there is still another 5 weeks and anything can happen but id rather be in your position than mine i am big enough to admit that HH…
HAHHAHAHAHAH more ear wax jokes! STOP IT, you are KILLING ME!
Back to strategy and reality. 5 long weeks to go and polls that will make some panic all over again.
The way to know what is really going on and, has been said before, is to watch where Kev and PM are canvassing. They wont be wasting time or money during this campaign – what they do has a reason.
re 433
Henderson was Howard’s first chief of staff as PM
Hunter @ 457 – no, Ruddock and Andrews are Lord Voldemort’s evil twin brothers … and Gerard H is trying out for the part
I thought that was Graeme Morris?
Glen,
What the hell have you got against using commas? You can’t be that poorly educated.
Barney @ 456
“And he (Henderson) is probably the most precious commentator I have ever seen.”
Absolutely and once we sack Howard he can get a job at CH 9…as the Worm.
ShowsOn why would Rudd crack out the vintage ear wax until he’s won the election…that would be worth a 1998 vintage….
Just for a note of interest… those imbibing the MOEt, should remember this could actually be 61:39.
467 – very good. I also admire Glen’s tenacity and (occasional) good humour.
You know when they start talking about ear way that things are horribly desperate….commiserations john
(Looks up hubris in dictionary…)
EXAMPLE: When a man who is not yet Prime Minister nor even immediately in line for the post tells the media that he’s not minded to live in the PM’s official residence when he becomes PM because he likes his own garden. (See also, prat, eejit, gutless wonder, etc.)
Glen, you’re a decent guy! And yes, 5 weeks is a long time, we in the ALP are happy but we shouldn’t get too cocky.
I don’t think I believe this Newspoll: too much of an outlier for my liking.
The real result will be more like 54:46 or 55:45.
Bolt gave it Kev months ago – though he did sound hopeful when talking up the betting market on the ‘Insiders;.
I’m pretty sure Henderson was a Speechwriter for the Libs…Generic P?
Yeah, its hardly hubris. We’ve suffered for this!
Plus, speaking objectively: Howard deserves to lose, and lose big time. It was his hubris that kept him on when he was clearly past use-by. Plus he’s lowered every single standard of public life, all the way from ministerial accountability to opportunist race-bating.
Boring old lefty lines, sure, but true.
And thats the problem with the Faustian pacts he has lived by in office – one day Faust collects.
suck it up tories, we’ve had a dozen years of your miserable politics. so allow us our hubris.
“When you got a poisonous weed in your garden you have to get it out right down to the roots….
Do I sound obsessed?”
Yeah, but so what, Kina? As a blog warrior you’re sensational.
—————————–
“surely $750 for laptops is not the extent of the vision?”
Don’t miss a trick do you, Eddy? Picked right up on the PC Mr. Rudd was holding in the ad. Great eye for detail, although sometimes you struggle with big picture stuff.
Indeed, the unanticipated scale of the debate-plus-Newspoll traffic surge has pushed me perilously close to my monthly limit. I have paid for an upgrade but there’s a risk it will not be processed in time. In that case I might be offline for a period tomorrow morning.
This challenge to Howard could have happened earlier if Labor had got there act together. We would not have had to put up with 11 years. Political disunity is death. Liberal State parties can testify to that.
For what it’s worth, if you put the newspoll figures into Antony Green’s calculator, you get:
106 seats ALP
42 seats COALITION
2 seats Independents
In reality, if Labor is getting anything over 80, that’ll be a good result.
I just cannot understand how this worm crap has and will cost the Coalition votes it just really surprises me that Ray Martin who i will never watch again accuses the Liberal Party of censorship i mean for crying out load 9 knew that it was a condition they didnt have the worm and they did it anyway…so much for an uncommitted audience as Rudd only had to say when i travel across this great country of ours and boom up to the atmosphere went the worm. 9 has a lot to answer for and they have unfairly tarnished the Coalition and cost us votes they have some real explaining to do as to why they deliberately targeted the Libs when it was the Press Club who issued the rules…
Glen, Howard issued the rules not the press club.
Tipping in a few coins William.
You must keep afloat. We need you!
No 487
Give me a break “Let me speak objectively…” but “Boring old lefty lines, sure, but true”
Hmmmm. So much for objectivity. I can hear the echoes of Trotsky.
JustMe @ 444
That you did. =-)
Still, I’m glad that Labor has started kicking into gear with advertising and policy announcements. Last week was pretty poor.
Well, Howard is finished. Last week was the best week he will have in this campaign — by a long shot.
490 – William – how’s the fiscal forecast; found $30bn down the back of the piano lately?
Glen, dont u have any liberal mates? save these rants for your fellow travelers.
I’m happy for as much hubris as everyone can muster AFTER Rudd wins. Getting carried away 5 weeks out doesn’t achieve anything.
The best thing about this poll is that it labels Howard a loser who’s best effort (tax policy) simply wasn’t good enough. Nothing less than an outright rejection of the Liberals and the antisocial policies that they have lived by since ‘96 is worth celebrating.
I just cannot understand how this worm crap has, and will cost the Coalition votes. It just really surprises me that Ray Martin (who i will never watch again) accuses the Liberal Party of censorship. I mean for crying out load, 9 knew that it was a condition they didnt have the worm, but they did it anyway. Also, so much for an uncommitted audience! Rudd only had to say “when i travel across this great country of ours” and boom – up to the atmosphere went the worm! Nine has a lot to answer for; they have unfairly tarnished the Coalition, and cost us votes. They have some real explaining to do – as to why they deliberately targeted the Libs – when it was the Press Club who issued the rules.
When Channel 9 starts copping it from the tories you know the swing is really on … unbelievable.
Hit up those Moet drinkers for a bit extra William. Ben Chifley would be turning in his grave.
Monday October 22, 10:50 PM
Labor surges in latest Newspoll
Prime Minister John Howard has been dealt a blow by the latest poll figures showing the government losing support, despite its $34 billion package of tax cuts.
The latest Newspoll, to be published in The Australian, shows Labor opening up a 16-point lead over the coalition – enough to romp home in a landslide if an election were held.
.
.
It’s all Ray Martin’s fault.
I can’t see this as being anything other than a massacre. The Libs shot their bolt (this conjures up some delightful images) via there tax policy in the first week. So what about Shanahans’ “king hit” on tax. they could bring back Jesus to raise the dead, and it still wouldn’t give them traction.
Henderson is Lord Dukku, Ruddock is the Sith Lord, Andrews is Lord Voldermorts evil twin brother, Tony Abbot?
# 454 The Doctor Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 11:42 pm
Conan the Barbarian. lol
Wow nath is a supporter of censorship…i thought this was Australia not Soviet Russia nath!
Megalogenis was interestin in his analysis of the worm. Characteristically courteous to the other two guests, but he made the point that it was the same phenomenon he had seen on some of the Oz’s (?) own focus groups. And that other analysts read this as people turning off Howard. If this is the case, then the fact that the worm was ‘biased’ towards Rudd is more of a worry than conspiracy Libs might think.
Where did the nine crowd come from? Anyone?
No 508
It is not censorship. Channel 9 agreed to the terms under which the broadcast would proceed.
The Liberal party supports censorship too, so long as it helps their political objectives.
Sent the Stork to make a delivery.
You can’t sign away free speech.
Ave Pseudocheirus Peregrinus Comitatus!!
OK that’s where my Latin runs out – I dare not attempt the Latin for Poll Bludger – but it would be nice to think that the PollBludger and the Possum not only have kept us informed and encouraged these past months but have also assisted in some way in events which have developed not necessarily to the advantage of Team Rodent.
Has anyone else done an analysis or kept a scorecard on military analogies so far this campaign?
My own comparison a week ago of Howard’s day one move on tax policy with the ill advised early Allied lunges into northwest France/Belgium in WW1 and 2 is, I admit, on the eccentric side – but I think it is looking good at this point.
The pitiful silliness of David Flint’s Maginot line/pincer story on the same tax policy move has already been noted.
There have been some nice lines in several posts about Cannae (nice of course for all of us that didn’t have to be there on the day).
Others?
No 513
You have little understanding of contractual agreements.
You have little understanding of the constitution.
Bolt was fairly hard on Martin and 9 – wonder what the response will be?
Generic Liberal Person,
Channel Nine did NOT agree and even if they did so what. This is a democracy. They shouldn’t have to follow unreasonable rules. This isn’t China.
What astounds me is that Labor have a 16 point lead after a lacklustre first week of campaigning. The electorate really must have stopped listening to Howard, or people saw the tax cuts for what they were, a vote buying exercise. And the MSM have to wake up to themselves, this cheerleading and blatant pro Howard bias, particularly from the GG, is turning a lot of people off.
No 516
Unfortunately, it is you lacking understanding. Australians do not have a right to free speech under the constitution.
More Hubris
I thank the gods every day for the fact that the rodent didn’t retire last year. My Grandfather passed away never having had the pleasure of seeing Menzies defeated and I thought Howard was going to be my Menzies. Retirement last year would have been the most nauseating sop fest in aust political history with the little scoundrel safely ushered off into the pantheon of political giants by his coterie of parasites, commercial spruikers, media charlatans. But no, Hubris and stupidity and hyacinth and god knows what else kept him in the firing line for just one more shot and this time we’re not going to miss. This impeding whitewash is going to be fitting testimony to the rodents political legacy – the trashing of country for craven political power, the lies, the mediocrity the basic incompetence. He had to go out this way – it will restore some kind of balance to the order of things.
Generic, the terms were unreasonable. If I twist your arm behind your back and get you to agree to something it is not really an agreement. Howard acted like a bully. He had no right to try to dictate editorial content or presentation. You’re wrong here, buddy, and perhaps history will show Howard’s worm stunt as his final nail.
We didnt censor 9 they did it to themselves they knew the rules and they broke them anyway so too bad…Ray Martin should state who he votes for because it aint the Coalition…
puts his feet up, feeling verrrrrrryyyy goooooooood