Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.
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We all know Richie doesn`t stir from the (admittedly wide-ranging)possibilities of the white/off-white/cream/ivory or the beige.
447 – that’s right! I knew I’d seen him somewhere before…
BTW The Sydney Institute was where Howard did his “symbolism” speech on Reconciliation and Sol Lebevic (speeling) talked about the “soft” Labor vote and where Hugh Mc Kay said the polls were reflecting Australians waking up from a long sleep.
Imacca,
“What is best in life? To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women. …â€
That is a quote from the Iliad isn’t it.
So is Rudd the Trojan Horse??
No 441
The usual anti-Howard tirade on online blogs is irrelevant.
In the latter years of the Hawke/Keating era Henderson took a course of reasonable pills for a while but like a person brought up as a Jesuit he’s reverted to dogma as he approaches the end of his life.
And he is probably the most precious commentator I have ever seen. His skin is gossamer thin.
Ruddock is the Sith Lord.
I can’t wait to see how Shanahan spins this 58-42 2PP poll in the GG tomorrow morning.
Maybe he will do what others have done and try to draw attention away from the actual debate result to the childish shrill of the National Pretenders Club having a la la about the ‘legality’ or otherwise of the worm {BRING BACK THE WORM} and Ray Fartin defending the ‘good name’ of channel eddy or parrot Costellos ‘hole’ in the Swan tax package.
Anything to distract the punter away from reality and give the GG some hope of flogging a few more ‘gap narrows’ newspapers before election day.
If JWH can get back from here I will tip my hat to a bloody genius [political] and get very drunk on the Yarra River with my clumsy brother.
So is Rudd the Trojan Horse??
No. Bhuddha, Sun Tzu, and Tintin rolled into one.
Bummer
Not happy Jan!
Poor William will be hoping for some Narrowing after this…..great polls for the ALP are horrible for his bandwidth.
The Doctor @ 454 … Close, but no. It’s from Conan the Barbarian.
GP @ 421 – I can’t speak for anyone else, but for me it isn’t hubris, it’s that after 11 long years we’ve had 10 months of polls which have given us hope, and now everytime there’s a poll I for one await it with trepidation.
So when Labor gets good numbers it’s a kind of joyous relief that things haven’t turned like the media have been saying they would.
I can’t recall Labor having an election campaign poll number this high – ever. Are there records going back to 1983? That might be the only campaign which may have gone close to a number like this.
HH one would be a fool to believe the Coalition cannot win from here but one would also be a fool for thinking the Coalition can win if it remains this far behind in the polls i am a realist and i understand it is harder for us to win a 5th term than for Labor to win so the odds are stacked against us and unless Howard can have a radically popular policy on housing then we may be sunk but there will be polls out left right and centre though i would of thought we beat Labor in week one but on first results it appears we did not
Glen, I was genuinely holding out the olive branch to your good self.
Both classic epics though RGee.
Who keeps talking about me!!!!!!!!??????
I wonder if Kevin is celebrating the good poll result with a vintage bit of ear wax he had saved?
Surely you know this should be more than one sentence?
Currently it is zero sentences because it doesn’t have a full-stop.
As someone remarked previously Bolt is repositioning himself with an eye to a viable future. He’s clearly gone soft on the ‘insiders’ – this week fran kelly and the guy from the tele got under my skin a whole lot more
I do not doubt your intentions HH there is no doubt it was an olive branch but i refuse to concede the election is lost just yet there is still another 5 weeks and anything can happen but id rather be in your position than mine i am big enough to admit that HH…
HAHHAHAHAHAH more ear wax jokes! STOP IT, you are KILLING ME!
Back to strategy and reality. 5 long weeks to go and polls that will make some panic all over again.
The way to know what is really going on and, has been said before, is to watch where Kev and PM are canvassing. They wont be wasting time or money during this campaign – what they do has a reason.
re 433
Henderson was Howard’s first chief of staff as PM
Hunter @ 457 – no, Ruddock and Andrews are Lord Voldemort’s evil twin brothers … and Gerard H is trying out for the part
I thought that was Graeme Morris?
Glen,
What the hell have you got against using commas? You can’t be that poorly educated.
Barney @ 456
“And he (Henderson) is probably the most precious commentator I have ever seen.”
Absolutely and once we sack Howard he can get a job at CH 9…as the Worm.
ShowsOn why would Rudd crack out the vintage ear wax until he’s won the election…that would be worth a 1998 vintage….
Just for a note of interest… those imbibing the MOEt, should remember this could actually be 61:39.
467 – very good. I also admire Glen’s tenacity and (occasional) good humour.
You know when they start talking about ear way that things are horribly desperate….commiserations john
(Looks up hubris in dictionary…)
EXAMPLE: When a man who is not yet Prime Minister nor even immediately in line for the post tells the media that he’s not minded to live in the PM’s official residence when he becomes PM because he likes his own garden. (See also, prat, eejit, gutless wonder, etc.)
Glen, you’re a decent guy! And yes, 5 weeks is a long time, we in the ALP are happy but we shouldn’t get too cocky.
I don’t think I believe this Newspoll: too much of an outlier for my liking.
The real result will be more like 54:46 or 55:45.
Bolt gave it Kev months ago – though he did sound hopeful when talking up the betting market on the ‘Insiders;.
I’m pretty sure Henderson was a Speechwriter for the Libs…Generic P?
Yeah, its hardly hubris. We’ve suffered for this!
Plus, speaking objectively: Howard deserves to lose, and lose big time. It was his hubris that kept him on when he was clearly past use-by. Plus he’s lowered every single standard of public life, all the way from ministerial accountability to opportunist race-bating.
Boring old lefty lines, sure, but true.
And thats the problem with the Faustian pacts he has lived by in office – one day Faust collects.
suck it up tories, we’ve had a dozen years of your miserable politics. so allow us our hubris.
“When you got a poisonous weed in your garden you have to get it out right down to the roots….
Do I sound obsessed?”
Yeah, but so what, Kina? As a blog warrior you’re sensational.
—————————–
“surely $750 for laptops is not the extent of the vision?”
Don’t miss a trick do you, Eddy? Picked right up on the PC Mr. Rudd was holding in the ad. Great eye for detail, although sometimes you struggle with big picture stuff.
Indeed, the unanticipated scale of the debate-plus-Newspoll traffic surge has pushed me perilously close to my monthly limit. I have paid for an upgrade but there’s a risk it will not be processed in time. In that case I might be offline for a period tomorrow morning.
This challenge to Howard could have happened earlier if Labor had got there act together. We would not have had to put up with 11 years. Political disunity is death. Liberal State parties can testify to that.
For what it’s worth, if you put the newspoll figures into Antony Green’s calculator, you get:
106 seats ALP
42 seats COALITION
2 seats Independents
In reality, if Labor is getting anything over 80, that’ll be a good result.
I just cannot understand how this worm crap has and will cost the Coalition votes it just really surprises me that Ray Martin who i will never watch again accuses the Liberal Party of censorship i mean for crying out load 9 knew that it was a condition they didnt have the worm and they did it anyway…so much for an uncommitted audience as Rudd only had to say when i travel across this great country of ours and boom up to the atmosphere went the worm. 9 has a lot to answer for and they have unfairly tarnished the Coalition and cost us votes they have some real explaining to do as to why they deliberately targeted the Libs when it was the Press Club who issued the rules…
Glen, Howard issued the rules not the press club.
Tipping in a few coins William.
You must keep afloat. We need you!
No 487
Give me a break “Let me speak objectively…” but “Boring old lefty lines, sure, but true”
Hmmmm. So much for objectivity. I can hear the echoes of Trotsky.
JustMe @ 444
That you did. =-)
Still, I’m glad that Labor has started kicking into gear with advertising and policy announcements. Last week was pretty poor.
Well, Howard is finished. Last week was the best week he will have in this campaign — by a long shot.
490 – William – how’s the fiscal forecast; found $30bn down the back of the piano lately?
Glen, dont u have any liberal mates? save these rants for your fellow travelers.
I’m happy for as much hubris as everyone can muster AFTER Rudd wins. Getting carried away 5 weeks out doesn’t achieve anything.
The best thing about this poll is that it labels Howard a loser who’s best effort (tax policy) simply wasn’t good enough. Nothing less than an outright rejection of the Liberals and the antisocial policies that they have lived by since ‘96 is worth celebrating.
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