Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.
782 Comments
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I just cannot understand how this worm crap has, and will cost the Coalition votes. It just really surprises me that Ray Martin (who i will never watch again) accuses the Liberal Party of censorship. I mean for crying out load, 9 knew that it was a condition they didnt have the worm, but they did it anyway. Also, so much for an uncommitted audience! Rudd only had to say “when i travel across this great country of ours” and boom – up to the atmosphere went the worm! Nine has a lot to answer for; they have unfairly tarnished the Coalition, and cost us votes. They have some real explaining to do – as to why they deliberately targeted the Libs – when it was the Press Club who issued the rules.
When Channel 9 starts copping it from the tories you know the swing is really on … unbelievable.
Hit up those Moet drinkers for a bit extra William. Ben Chifley would be turning in his grave.
Monday October 22, 10:50 PM
Labor surges in latest Newspoll
Prime Minister John Howard has been dealt a blow by the latest poll figures showing the government losing support, despite its $34 billion package of tax cuts.
The latest Newspoll, to be published in The Australian, shows Labor opening up a 16-point lead over the coalition – enough to romp home in a landslide if an election were held.
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It’s all Ray Martin’s fault.
I can’t see this as being anything other than a massacre. The Libs shot their bolt (this conjures up some delightful images) via there tax policy in the first week. So what about Shanahans’ “king hit” on tax. they could bring back Jesus to raise the dead, and it still wouldn’t give them traction.
Henderson is Lord Dukku, Ruddock is the Sith Lord, Andrews is Lord Voldermorts evil twin brother, Tony Abbot?
# 454 The Doctor Says: October 22nd, 2007 at 11:42 pm
Conan the Barbarian. lol
Wow nath is a supporter of censorship…i thought this was Australia not Soviet Russia nath!
Megalogenis was interestin in his analysis of the worm. Characteristically courteous to the other two guests, but he made the point that it was the same phenomenon he had seen on some of the Oz’s (?) own focus groups. And that other analysts read this as people turning off Howard. If this is the case, then the fact that the worm was ‘biased’ towards Rudd is more of a worry than conspiracy Libs might think.
Where did the nine crowd come from? Anyone?
No 508
It is not censorship. Channel 9 agreed to the terms under which the broadcast would proceed.
The Liberal party supports censorship too, so long as it helps their political objectives.
Sent the Stork to make a delivery.
You can’t sign away free speech.
Ave Pseudocheirus Peregrinus Comitatus!!
OK that’s where my Latin runs out – I dare not attempt the Latin for Poll Bludger – but it would be nice to think that the PollBludger and the Possum not only have kept us informed and encouraged these past months but have also assisted in some way in events which have developed not necessarily to the advantage of Team Rodent.
Has anyone else done an analysis or kept a scorecard on military analogies so far this campaign?
My own comparison a week ago of Howard’s day one move on tax policy with the ill advised early Allied lunges into northwest France/Belgium in WW1 and 2 is, I admit, on the eccentric side – but I think it is looking good at this point.
The pitiful silliness of David Flint’s Maginot line/pincer story on the same tax policy move has already been noted.
There have been some nice lines in several posts about Cannae (nice of course for all of us that didn’t have to be there on the day).
Others?
No 513
You have little understanding of contractual agreements.
You have little understanding of the constitution.
Bolt was fairly hard on Martin and 9 – wonder what the response will be?
Generic Liberal Person,
Channel Nine did NOT agree and even if they did so what. This is a democracy. They shouldn’t have to follow unreasonable rules. This isn’t China.
What astounds me is that Labor have a 16 point lead after a lacklustre first week of campaigning. The electorate really must have stopped listening to Howard, or people saw the tax cuts for what they were, a vote buying exercise. And the MSM have to wake up to themselves, this cheerleading and blatant pro Howard bias, particularly from the GG, is turning a lot of people off.
No 516
Unfortunately, it is you lacking understanding. Australians do not have a right to free speech under the constitution.
More Hubris
I thank the gods every day for the fact that the rodent didn’t retire last year. My Grandfather passed away never having had the pleasure of seeing Menzies defeated and I thought Howard was going to be my Menzies. Retirement last year would have been the most nauseating sop fest in aust political history with the little scoundrel safely ushered off into the pantheon of political giants by his coterie of parasites, commercial spruikers, media charlatans. But no, Hubris and stupidity and hyacinth and god knows what else kept him in the firing line for just one more shot and this time we’re not going to miss. This impeding whitewash is going to be fitting testimony to the rodents political legacy – the trashing of country for craven political power, the lies, the mediocrity the basic incompetence. He had to go out this way – it will restore some kind of balance to the order of things.
Generic, the terms were unreasonable. If I twist your arm behind your back and get you to agree to something it is not really an agreement. Howard acted like a bully. He had no right to try to dictate editorial content or presentation. You’re wrong here, buddy, and perhaps history will show Howard’s worm stunt as his final nail.
We didnt censor 9 they did it to themselves they knew the rules and they broke them anyway so too bad…Ray Martin should state who he votes for because it aint the Coalition…
puts his feet up, feeling verrrrrrryyyy goooooooood
the conventions are the constitution, realise this fact.
Haven’t you done constitutional law yet? We have a right to a political voice.
You should actually go to your law classes, instead of young Liberal meetings.
MM @ 514 Yes, Howard is going to lead the charge of The Light Brigade.
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Can I quote you on that. Liberal Party man.
Pancho: the Channel 9 audience was chosen by McNair Anderson, supposedly from a group of undecided voters in marginal seats.
No 522
Channel 9 did not sign under duress. They were quite free to withdraw from the agreement. They agreed to the terms set by the National Press Club, breached such terms and were clearly in the wrong.
To 454:
Nope, Quote from Conan the Barbarian. Can you see the Ruddster in a loincloth and helmet, chasing Dolly with a hand and a half sword whirling around his head??
Ha, Ha, 58/42.
By the way, is the FemBot script with the slogan generating algorithm (Tabitha) not commenting tonight??
Yup, i’m enjoying this result. Don’t care if its Hubris either.
nath @ 422
Steiner made the right decision, and Wenck the honourable one – and none of it was about Adolf…
No 526
And no-one withheld the implied right to political free speeh.
Clearly Generic Person and his Liberal Party friends do NOT believe in free speech. Perfect reason why they’re where they are in the polls.
glen, it is an australian tradition that when someone is down, you go up and gently slip the boot in to help them on their way, Ray was doing no more than that. and being the public face of management. who cares.
“I can hear echoes of Trotsky”.
There’s medication to control those voices, Generic.
Anyway, spontaneous demonstration of gratitude and joy are expected.
So lighten up. And thats an order!
I think it was a group of undecideds. I think it is just an Australianism that we seem to prefer under-dogs, and in the context of the debate that meant the guy who HASN’T been P.M. for 11 years.
I also think that Rudd just came off looking better on TV. He faced the camera so it was like he was direclty addressing TV viewers, whereas Howard was looking across to the right, i.e. away from the camera.
There are lots of rational reasons why uncomitted people would’ve generically prefered Rudd’s performance.
530 – “Channel 9 did not sign under duress.”
I agree with you there – they didn’t sign anything.
Howard tried to be a bully and lost. You know it or wouldn’t be protesting so much.
Generic Person
Have you sighted a copy of he written contract signed by participating groups
This is a game. Its politics. Its money.
Glenn @ 523. that isn’t how the electorate will see it. Just another one of Johnny’s sneaky tricks. No point in getting indignant. If you live by the sword…
the worm will out
“Witheld” LOL! You really need to attend more classes… Oh, and stay AWAKE in them.
No 534
I hold no such belief and made no comment to that effect.
No 542
Wrong again.
Withheld, the past tense of withhold, is perfectly acceptable.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/withheld
You have much to learn.
Take it from a wombat…..Howard is “rooted”
The sooner we can clean these extreme right wingers like GP from the Liberal Party the better the nation will be.
F#@$ing brilliant! This is PERFECT Liberal party talk, you would make a BRILLIANT Liberal Senator!
You just need to bring out some clauses and sub-sections, and you’ll get pre-selection in no time!
GP is distracting us from enjoying the great poll results. Much like Howard tried to distract everyone with reconciliation. The claytons reconciliation
HAHAHHAHAHAH what the hell are you going on about now?
Generic liberals,
Enough of the Ch 9 bleating already. Tough luck, it’s politics and you were wormed, harden the f up and get over it.
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